I think the question that will eventually follow will be "is 3D scanning hurting the sales of 3D printed items?" In other words, how much protection can a company selling 3D printed minis or STLs retain if the customer can purchase one copy (or borrow someone else's printed model), scan it and make their own file from which unlimited copies could be printed without restriction or any profit to the creator? Admittedly, 3D scanning faces a lot of the same tangible and intangible obstacles as 3D printing does, and is currently less present than 3D printers among hobbyists, but it is a thing and just like printing, the technology will inevitably improve to a point where it is commonplace and user-friendly to anyone (like the telephone, television, and microwave oven did before it). One thing I can say about whether or not this will come to pass is: When it comes to the pace of technological development, few advances were ever _over_ estimated. Even things like Moore's Law have become irrelevant as the pace increases. So sooner than we might even imagine, 3D printing is going to become everyday.
Lots of advances were overestimated. It was just that they died off and were forgotten. Google Glass, the Sinclair C5, the Segway, VR in the 1990s, the Amstrad videophone. I don't think that applies in this case, but the jury's still out on whether 3D printing will make the leap from hobby pastime to domestic essential the way computers, smartphones and gaming consoles have. That said, this episode was all about GW specifically. In the next part of this, I'll look at its impact on the *rest* of the industry which is *far* more significant.
I also think you need to consider short term versus long term. Think computers. When I start my first job in computers it was al about the mainframes. Then came personal computers, then arguably the Mac, but even then that was 1984. So the question is when did computers go from being something lots of people had to where pretty much everyone has one, even if it is just their phone. I see this as being the future.
@@ashley-r-pollard Turns out it was 5, rather than 100, and the attribution is, in any case, shaky: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson#Famous_attribution
Just FYI, I don't know why your comment doesn't appear. I got a notification about it and read the whole comment which was a fascinating - if dystopian - vision of GW-brand 3D printers with GW-brand printer filament. FWIW, I think you vastly overestimate both GW's capacity to build extraordinarily sophisticated technological devices to protect their IP *and* their political influence. BUT, could I see GW ending up as a licensee to some *other* company that offers access to exclusive licensed 3D designs through their budget-friendly desktop printer concept? ... well, honestly, no, I don't think that'll happen. But I can certainly see it being closer to the horizon of the possible than GW trying to do it themselves. We can overestimate just how influential GW is from our limited perspectives as participants in the tabletop wargaming hobby. Compared to the really big IP controllers - Disney, AT&T, Sony, Hasbro etc - GW is a child making mud-pies in the sandpit.
@@PrecinctOmegaWargaming well, I'm glad somebody got to see that comment lol. I personally don't think GW will ever get into the 3d printing market... at least not anytime soon. But if they did, my comment is how I think they would do it. My logic wasn't really meant to be dystopian, it was just base on observing how current corporations have handled other products and services over the last 2-3 decades. Just think about how many products, and services use to be open an free and/or easily accessible, until big corporations changed things to take more control from consumers, provide less or worse service, just to maximize their profits. That's a whole other conversation in itself. But Games Workshop and the miniature market will be no different.
I think the question that will eventually follow will be "is 3D scanning hurting the sales of 3D printed items?" In other words, how much protection can a company selling 3D printed minis or STLs retain if the customer can purchase one copy (or borrow someone else's printed model), scan it and make their own file from which unlimited copies could be printed without restriction or any profit to the creator?
Admittedly, 3D scanning faces a lot of the same tangible and intangible obstacles as 3D printing does, and is currently less present than 3D printers among hobbyists, but it is a thing and just like printing, the technology will inevitably improve to a point where it is commonplace and user-friendly to anyone (like the telephone, television, and microwave oven did before it).
One thing I can say about whether or not this will come to pass is: When it comes to the pace of technological development, few advances were ever _over_ estimated. Even things like Moore's Law have become irrelevant as the pace increases.
So sooner than we might even imagine, 3D printing is going to become everyday.
Lots of advances were overestimated. It was just that they died off and were forgotten. Google Glass, the Sinclair C5, the Segway, VR in the 1990s, the Amstrad videophone. I don't think that applies in this case, but the jury's still out on whether 3D printing will make the leap from hobby pastime to domestic essential the way computers, smartphones and gaming consoles have.
That said, this episode was all about GW specifically. In the next part of this, I'll look at its impact on the *rest* of the industry which is *far* more significant.
I also think you need to consider short term versus long term. Think computers. When I start my first job in computers it was al about the mainframes. Then came personal computers, then arguably the Mac, but even then that was 1984.
So the question is when did computers go from being something lots of people had to where pretty much everyone has one, even if it is just their phone. I see this as being the future.
Wasn't it the head of IBM who predicted a maximum market for their computers of "a few hundred"?
@@PrecinctOmegaWargaming It was, at least apocryphally. Could probably hunt down a source.
@@ashley-r-pollard Turns out it was 5, rather than 100, and the attribution is, in any case, shaky: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson#Famous_attribution
Great content as always!
can anyone see this comment?
I see you.
@@ashley-r-pollard Thank you, posted a comment, but it vanished for some reason.
Just FYI, I don't know why your comment doesn't appear. I got a notification about it and read the whole comment which was a fascinating - if dystopian - vision of GW-brand 3D printers with GW-brand printer filament. FWIW, I think you vastly overestimate both GW's capacity to build extraordinarily sophisticated technological devices to protect their IP *and* their political influence. BUT, could I see GW ending up as a licensee to some *other* company that offers access to exclusive licensed 3D designs through their budget-friendly desktop printer concept? ... well, honestly, no, I don't think that'll happen. But I can certainly see it being closer to the horizon of the possible than GW trying to do it themselves. We can overestimate just how influential GW is from our limited perspectives as participants in the tabletop wargaming hobby. Compared to the really big IP controllers - Disney, AT&T, Sony, Hasbro etc - GW is a child making mud-pies in the sandpit.
@@PrecinctOmegaWargaming well, I'm glad somebody got to see that comment lol.
I personally don't think GW will ever get into the 3d printing market... at least not anytime soon. But if they did, my comment is how I think they would do it.
My logic wasn't really meant to be dystopian, it was just base on observing how current corporations have handled other products and services over the last 2-3 decades.
Just think about how many products, and services use to be open an free and/or easily accessible, until big corporations changed things to take more control from consumers, provide less or worse service, just to maximize their profits. That's a whole other conversation in itself. But Games Workshop and the miniature market will be no different.