Experts slugfest: 2024 SAG Awards recap -- who's winning the Best Actress Oscar now?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2024
- Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng break down Saturday's SAG Awards, which saw "Oppenheimer" walk away with three statuettes and Lily Gladstone score a much-needed win over Emma Stone. So what does this mean for the Best Actress Oscar race? Plus: What do SAG-AFTRA voters have against "Succession's" individual actors?
Email your questions to slugfests@goldderby.com.
Timestamps:
Intro and ceremony thoughts (0:00)
Film actress (3:53)
Film actor (19:33)
Film supporting actress (29:30)
Film supporting actor (30:51)
Film ensemble (34:23)
Barbra Streisand's tribute, cast reunions, etc. (39:07)
TV drama categories (45:09)
TV comedy categories (54:08)
TV limited/movie categories (54:52)
Listener questions (1:01:10)
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Thank you Joy for stating what many of us have been saying for weeks about how people have been treating Cillian
Cillian Murphy winning Best Actor at the Oscars would be a great win. He’s a class act who lets his work speak for itself. 👌
The Glenn Close comparison isn’t even close because she was the Wife’s only nomination, everyone’s acting like people strongly dislike killers as if it didn’t still get 10 Oscar nominations 😭😭
100% - well said. Only 1 less nomination than Poor Things. Plus it’s Scorsese! They clearly like or at least respect the movie. Best actress could go either way. Or they split & the brilliant Sandra Huller takes it
If we suggested people dislike Killers that was in error or a misspeak. What I believe is that there is less enthusiasm for it than Poor Things. It’s in the “liked-not-loved” category as evidenced by its failure to land Leo and the script nominations and the fact that it hasn’t won anything significant since the Globes. Now, you could argue Poor Things has waning enthusiasm too, considering it lost some key BAFTA awards like Best British Film. But I think their trajectories are passing now. Doesn’t mean Lily can’t win!
@DavidLayt to be fair Scorsese's movies have a history of blanking especially in acting category 😂. Hopefully Lily breaks the curse
@@chrisjrosen Perfect summary of the situation.
LOL love the subtle shade Chris & Joyce threw at Tariq Khan and his SAG voter polling. Just a reminder that Khan kept insisting all season that Danielle Brooks and even Fantasia Barrino (!) would win the Oscar even after Color Purple flopped, and even this week he said there was no doubt Brooks was winning SAG. He also said there were a lot of votes for Robbie and he was not hearing any votes for Lily. 😂
Tariq Khan has had a very peculiar Oscar season. The persistent insistence on Danielle Brooks has been truly odd (he even predicted her to win at BAFTA I think). And his recent defensiveness about his SAG voter polling was, frankly, bizarre.
😂
You guys are such pros getting these vids up right away. Thank you Chris and Joyce for being the BEST oscar experts out there.
Paul Giamatti did an interview on PBS Newshour. During that interview, Paul talked about how easy it was for him to play the role because Paul attended a New England boarding school during the 1980s - and he easily knew how to play the character. In contrast, 60 minutes did an interview of Cillian Murphy. In that interview, it was discussed how hard it was for Cillian to transform himself to play role of Oppenheimer (I.e., lose weight (28 lbs), learn a foreign language, work on American accent).
Very happy for Cillian Murphy. For my part I found the ceremony rather quick, but I think I am biased because the day before I had watched the Cesar ( french awards ) whose ceremony lasted 4 hours.🤣
Poor Things is nominated with 11 but has the chance to win more Oscars than Killers. Making it a heavier favorite. Poor things could really walk away with Costumes, Production Design, Makeup & Hair, along with Lead Actress. While Killers I have predicted to win nothing. I think Poor Things has more passion and will carry Emma to a win cause she is extremely likable and humble and really did turn in the best performance of the year. She’s also a producer on the film. I think she’s much stronger, She got the Globe, CCA, Bafta and I really think is on track to win the Oscar, The Academy is more snobby and picky than SAG. SAG is more democratic and diverse. I think they both have passion so it’s hard to call but I really think Emma has the edge predictably wise.
I like that there’s a legitimate debate- all Best Actress nominees deserve a spot there.
🤔
Take that! Oscar prognosticators! (and you too Film Twitter) Your heads might be saying Emma but your hearts say Lily. SAG just blew our collective minds.
I'm all for a good show and damn, it's back to the races!
The narrative for Paul Giamatti just never made sense to me. They're trying an elder statesman vs. rookie thing when as you rightly say Cillian is only 9 years younger, their careers started 7 years apart, and the arguable breakout roles that brought them to greater public attention happened only four years apart. It' just isn't true and I've seen the sentiment how nice it is to see Cillian get his "due" because people have been following him for 20 years repeated pretty often in comment sections just like this one, so Giamatti isn't the only one with that going for him.
I loved the Holdovers and I loved Paul in it, but frankly I've seen more pundits predict him for awards as a form of "lifetime achievement" than for just the performance alone.
I agree. I respect Paul’s work - he deserved awards for American Splendor (2003 movie). But, compared to Oppenheimer, the Holdover movie is an independent film about an elite New England boarding school - that type of storyline just doesn’t compare to a blockbuster movie like Oppenheimer.
What your missing is that Cillian is a newcomer to the awards circuit. Despite incredible performances he has been overlooked for any major awards. He is also a newcomer to a lead role in a major movie. His previous five movies with Nolan were small parts.
So that gives him a narrative too now! Overlooked Actor working in the shadows who never got award recognition despite grinding the grind
YAY! Couldn't wait for some SAG analysis from u both x
Man, I love y’all, man! Wonderful work
Im so happy for pedro!!! He has worked his butt off for 25 yrs.
And he is so humble. He said he even voted for kieran.
But dont call sag aftra basic, wth. You’re discounting the intelligence of actors.
About Streisand's speech, the Lady has a template. The last time she got some sort of life-time achievement award, (that being the Golden Globes) she also:
a) goes long
b) references her sh**ty childhood in Brooklyn
c) drones on about a current favorite film of hers. The Green Mile for the Globes and Une Belle Course for SAG.
d) "the Truth"
Oscars voting opened only 3 days after BAFTA, on the 22nd.
Part of me wonders if the HUGE voting base that comprises non-Academy folks and are very big on rewarding narrative helped Lily nab the victory here. I still think Lily suffers slightly from the Academy being less inclined to vote based on narrative alone, as well as Lily being relatively new and less established in the scene. Her not placing top three in BAFTA signals some weakness in the Academy that’s more international.
Lily Gladstone. Never Wavered.
Everything you said about Cillian Murphy is exactly what I’ve been saying all season. So I agree 👏 I’m beyond happy he won & I think it’s been his awards season all along. Hope he takes the Oscar home 🤞🏆
Thrilled Lily Gladstone is back in the race. I would love her to win the Oscar. 👏
she was never out of the race.
@@nafischowdhury7375I meant literally since she lost at Critics & wasn’t nominated at BAFTA. I’ve always believed Lily would win but it was nice to hear her name called again so the ones predicting her to be out… now realise she’s still very much in this & I believe will win.
Did Gary Oldman also get in on the SAG ensemble win for Oppenheimer? One of my favorite scenes in the whole movie, he was outstanding.
Some of the most interesting races right now:
Best Actress
Best Animated Film
Best Visual Effects
Best Makeup and Hairstyle
Best Sound
What else is still up for grabs?
What the heck are you even talking about? The show was fine. Do not bring back commercials. AND there is enormous online love and support for Cillian Murphy! He has been trending for days. What a weird comment and people were cheering online.
We disagree about the ceremony but I think there does seem to be a reticence among pundits and journalists toward embracing Murphy. However, perhaps I should take Kendall’s advice: we’re too online, we’ve lost context.
Predictors on Gold Derby barely moved the needle after Murphy won BAFTA and were on the Paul train since he won his GG (ignoring Cillian also won his btw) and got emboldened and kept moving the goalposts to consider Murphy the frontrunner: Ignored he took out Cooper, then "if he wins BAFTA he's still in the race or else he's done", then he won BAFTA "he won because he is Irish" (laughable and such a logical fallacy with how many Americans have easily won over Brits and Irish in the past, Cillian was the first Irish born actor to win in a lead category at BAFTA btw) so he has to win SAG. He won SAG and i half expect some wannabe outlier will still predict Bradley Cooper lol
@@chrisjrosen I don’t think we’ve lost context, I think they have. Is that what do you mean? Oppenheimer is loved. It’s loved by audiences and people that love cinema. Ignoring Murphy was ridiculous on the part of these people.
Thank you Joyce for believing in CM all season long. No offense to PG ( no doubt he’s a great actor) Most critics depended solely on PG’s narratives ( Jeff Wells’s 2004 Sideways) PG was a veteran actor this and that. PG’s Father was an educator. Maybe it was in his blood to played a professor flawlessly.
Then there’s another group of sheep’s aka Oscar experts wannabes on TH-cam following PG’s trains from GoldDerby. Pitiful.
CM took a blank canvas turn it something amazing. CM made Oppenheimer reborn to the silver screen. I hold on my heart dearly fingers crossed for CM to take the Oscar. Truly was the best performance of the year.
So, come Oscar night, is there any way we can feel "comfortable" as the Best Actress envelope is opened? I guess not. And I love that. Even if "Poor Things" wins costumes, makeup, and production design, I don't think that tells us much about how the night will play out. I always love a top category race where there's literally nothing you can do but wait. Go with your gut and wait to see. It's what the season is all about. I wish there were a few more categories like that this year. Anything else - Paul winning for example (not gonna happen) - would be a shock the like of which I can't recall in recent years, apart from Olivia Colman. Going into the home stretch my head-scratchers now are -
1. The shorts (as always).
2. Visual effects (where I feel Godzilla has cool RRR type vibes for its single nomination).
3. Sound (I'll agonise until the final day of predicting about a Zone upset - but probably not right?).
4. Makeup (Maestro or Poor Things, I just don't know).
5. The design categories - I really don't know how they'll pan out.
So, actually, lots of dwell on 🙂
Disagree on printed sheet, she needs to memorize it at this point
Lily was the only acting winner of the quartet to get a standing ovation from the entire room. She’s always had industry support she’s going to win the Oscar the passion is there
Did you not listen to them? Enthusiasm in the room does not equal enthusiasm in the academy
In terms of enthusiasm, I do think it matters but you can’t solely rely on “applause in the room” as the sole barometer. As Joyce has said, the responses for Emma’s Globes win and her BAFTA were significant too. That noted! Lily has been *the* breakout of awards season and everyone, especially actors, love her and the performance. This race remains extremely close and I think it’ll come down to, as Joyce always says, voters picking their favorite performance and performer.
@lypup5650 did you not see what happens to cate bllanchette last year. she swept most of critic awards, swept critic choice award, swept golden globe, swept bafta, lost sag and lost Oscar. why? 1. she had already won the Oscar. 2. michelle yeoh had enthusiasm and narrative, and those factors gave her the win. this year best actress race mirrors last year best actress race. emma stone had already won an Oscar, but gladstone has the enthusiasm and the narrative. she will join yeoh.
What if Emma & Sandra split the European vote and Lily cruises to the win?
@@Worldtravla I do think this is possible. Also of note, in terms of industry awards, Lily beat Emma head-to-head, Emma won BAFTA without having to face off against Lily. It's possible/likely Emma would've won BAFTA against Lily (and we assumed Lily didn't have support at BAFTA because she wasn't nominated, of course). But if Lily was in the race, how does she affect the final voting? If BAFTA nominated performances with the entire membership voting instead of using a jury system, would Lily have gotten nominated? Many interesting things to think about! And the CC award is mostly just a red herring since it doesn't matter, isn't industry, and mostly tries to chase Oscar.
Congratulations to Greta Gerwig for directing Chris this evening 🎉
🤭
Crazy upsets
I agree! It did feel long. We did not need those after win “interviews”. Bring back the montages!
The actor and actress races are real races now! 🎉
Here is my out of the box prediction though. I think America Ferrera will do a Halle Berry and surprise win over Divine.
There is no actor race. Cillian won both BAFTA and SAG awards.
I switched back to Lily. SAG winners have gone 4/4 at the Oscars the past 2 years. I'm predicting SAG winners until I don't. And if it does happen I think the conversation needs to be "do actors have too much power in the Academy?"
@@rehnumachowdhury3629 Yeah for acting nominations, but when they can vote for the winners in all the categories they kind of ruin what all the other awards could be.
I remember Halle Berrys win over 20 years ago. Lily Gladstone is going to win the best actress race
Nothing negative here just honest curiosity: is the Marlon Brando native American still alive?
If so, Hollywood is crazy, so obvious and over the top that I would wonder if they put her on with Frasier to announce Best Actress as they did with Halle last year?
Toooooo much, if so.
Sacheen Littlefeather died in 2022.
I don't have Netflix, so didn't see the SAG awards, but I'm totally thrilled that you name-dropped someone named 'Lisanne' in relation to some award. What award? Don't know. Is this person's name spelled exactly like mine? Don't care.
FYI, up here in Canada, indigenous actors have been recognized and awarded for their work in movies and TV (both in front of the camera as actors and behind as writers, directors, producers and activists) as well as in theatre for many years. Not as often as they should have been but still...more than in the U.S.
Graham Greene was nominated for an Oscar in 1990's "Dances with Wolves", but of course, he's Canadian. And that was 24 years ago.
No Tantoo Cardinal (Canadian) who was also in "Dances with Wolves" as well as "Killers of the Flower Moon", no recognition for Lily Gladstone as an actor.
No Robbie Robertson (Canadian), no killer soundtracks (pun intended) for many Scorsese films.
I'm assuming that First Nations people in Canada have been getting hired for industry roles behind and in front of 📷 more often. These opportunities need to be open to minorities more often in order to diversify the potential winners in the US.
That' a really weird jumper Chris is wearing did he get that from Gerwig herself
The first thing you talk about is the runtime and you want commercials. People need to stop being obsessed with runtimes. Just watch it later and FF what you don’t like. We had a good time and glad we didn’t watch with complainers.
I think that Lily’s win is reminiscent of Halle Berry’s year, she won SAG and that’s how she went all the way to the Oscar’s. She will be THE FIRST like Halle was THE FIRST. So Lily’s taking it
Lily won the Golden Globe too. Same with Michelle Yeoh last year.
Stop with the patronizing minority comparisons. It’s honestly micro aggressive, that’s why a lot of minorities dislike the academy and their supposed liberalism. They all had very different paths and roles the only thing in common they have is that they’re not full white.
@@laurajones1773 as much as we don't like narrative, but narrative matters, halle berry first black to win best actress, michelle yeoh first Asian to win best actress, and soon lily gladstone will be first indigenous to win best actress. what all 3 have in common is that their main rival had already won an oscar, sissy spacek, cate blanchette, and emma stone.
same winners as all the other award shows : zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Kieran’s wife already said she is happy pedro won because it humbles kieran, he needed to be let down lol. And kieran rejected pedro’s make-out which is not surprising bc kieran is a downer.
Gladstone = Yeoh 2.0
The agonizing length in between the awards. And oh my god the backstage interviews during the broadcast kill me
Sucked so bad .. and Barbara talked forever.
@@Jigganaut80 lifetime achievement for talking for a lifetime
I don't think it's that people discredited Cillian, so much as Paul won the globe and CC, which Cate did last, and Chris stated she would "sweep" everything from then on. So again, an example of revisionist history. And yes, Lily won, as expected. Much like Michelle. I get we need to debate scenarios, but sometimes it just feels like a reach.
Got me again! Thanks for keeping me honest, a valuable and insightful comment.
@@chrisjrosen You're welcome! Anytime.
Paul won GG for comedy and Cillian won GG for drama
The Academy strives for diversity and inclusivity. Wouldn't it be so beautiful to see Indigenous actress winning an Oscar for a truly great performance? 50 years ago Marlon Brando refused to accept an Academy Award because of how Indigenous people in America and Hollywood were treated. We've come a long way. And Lily Gladstone deserves to become the symbol of that mesmerising moment of change.
🤔
well said. i totally agree. also gladstone performance isn't slouching either. just because her performance is more reserved and internal like cillian murphy, doesn't mean that it's not as good as her fellow nominees. there is a reason why she won so many critic awards this season over emma stone,
@@minavamp2811 I was thinking about the gentleness and raw honesty of her performance the other day. I can't help but draw another parallel to Marlon Brando who was nothing short of exceptional in On the Waterfront. Remember that scene in the car and his beautiful sensitivity? Lily Gladstone's performance is ALL ABOUT THAT. She's like an open wound, so delicate and touching and yet reserved and innerly expressive and, boy, what a beautiful breakthrough role! Truly one of the greatest acting performances in the history of the 21st century. I pray she wins. I love Emma Stone and she's great in Poor Things, but this year's Lead Actress battle reminds me of Denzel Washington/Adrien Brody Oscar moment. Some people will find it surprising but it's deserving as hell!
33:10 Mel Gibson is a good person, he didn't just save Robert Downey Jr's career he also saved him from addiction! Maybe if you did your research you'd know that. Chris for and Joyce to keep labeling Mel as a bad person just because of things he drunkenly said and apologized for two decades ago is very ridiculous. We can't erase our past mistakes but you shouldn't define someone by their past. Be professional not bias.
1:25:00 What Rachel should've asked them is why do you both talk so condescending when it concerns Mel Gibson? Just because he drunkenly said negative comments in 2006 doesn't mean he's a bad person, to hastily label him that way is disrespectful and wrong. He profoundly apologized so I'm wondering what you both have against him. Talk about hurtful bias. 🤨👎
Rachel can fight with me because i'm the Austin Butler's #1 hater
Long list of complaints from you two.
I'm still mad at RDJ because he never thanks or acknowledges Calista Flockhart or David E Kelley, they were the ones who gave him the opportunity that kept him working, insured, and sent to rehab, even when he hid his addictions and practically messed with Ally McBeal midway the season. How terrible that he thanks Gibson and not the good people.
PS. What a terrible show, the pacing was terrible, the worst production and direction for an awards show ever, last year's show on TH-cam was a million times better (and Idris Elba must have something on Ted Sarandos, because there's no way anyone thought Elba had some rizz to semi-present the program)
People need to leave Mel alone everyone makes mistakes and he literally housed Downey when he was broke and high on drugs.
Emma & Cate are white women who won Oscars and won the GG, CC, & Bafta.... while Michelle & Lily are WOC who won the GG & SAG, and somehow Chris and Joyce act as if people are being offensive or "reductive " by literally seeing the glaring similarities in that. Regardless of the films they are in, it literally mirror's one another. Frankly to ignore it feels far more offensive.
I would say it is reductive because as we said in the video, the comparison is mostly false. In reality, Cate/Lily are in similar movies (critically acclaimed auteur epics) and Michelle/Emma are in similar movies (more mainstream comedy-dramas). In terms of performance, Emma has more in common with Michelle and you could argue Cate/Lily are in the same area code as well (although I think Lily's work is fairly unique and singular in terms of recent Oscar-nominated performances).
@@chrisjrosen No we're not talking about what type of movie they are starring in. People are specifically referencing the points I laid out in my comment. To gloss that over and pretend that last year and this year aren't exact replicas in the nominee's and winner's is intellectually dishonest. No one's saying TAR & Poor Things are the same, and frankly that's silly to compare. But Emma and Cate are in fact white women who have been heavily rewarded and the WOC they are competing against previously weren't, and they won the exact same awards format. Emma & Cate = GG, CC & BAFTA
Michelle & Lily = GG, SAG.
I haven't seen one person anywhere, on here, or in "Film Twitter" as you both frequently reference, state that EEAAO & KOTFM are the same film.
@@matilda0410 Yes, they've won the same awards. Got me there! I think it's "intellectually dishonest" to say this is an "exact replica" because of the reasons I laid out -- and for someone so pedantic in all your interactions, I'm surprised you would think it was an "exact replica," but alas, sometimes it's hard to remain consistent -- but I also know you won't ever agree, so thanks for watching and have a good one!
@@chrisjrosen Alright hold on now. Chris, you don't know me, and I don't appreciate your flippant remarks about me. I've never attacked your character. I've stated when you flip flopped on opinions, which your co host does to you every single episode. And you laugh and say nothing to her. Please don't disrespect me and say that I'm worrying about "pedantic" things when you and Joyce make a living discussing every single detail of awards season, actors, films and categories. I am a viewer. Viewers watch this channel. Which is what you guys do for a living. I've followed and genuinely enjoyed you and Joyce for years. I don't understand how you can be that combative and dismissive of a viewer who isn't calling you names or attacking your character but stating the exact thing your co host and frankly many viewers state.
I think Lily is taking it, and she always was. You guys let the Pundits' Choice Awards and the bigoted BAFTA to convince you that the Oscars were going to give Emma a second win this soon and this young. They aren't going to skip this history making win and just award an actress again. This is Yeoh/Blanchett all over again
Bigoted? LOL, you are a tool.
bigoted ? They gave Da’vine the aware for best supporting.
@@Jigganaut80 bigoted? LOL, don't be woke daft. Not every time a person of color or minority loses it's because the jury is racist or bigoted. Or maybe you think a person of colour or minority should defeat a white person every time.
SAG is all about social justice over artistic merit, so BAFTA over SAG anytime.
Agreed.