Miami is being quiet because they are a private school and as such they don't have the same legal arguments that FSU and Clemson are trying to use that as state schools the grant of rights are especially prohibitive to them as public institutions. FSU and Clemson are counting on their state governments to help them in their respective cases, Miami has no such luxury as a private school.
Miami as a private school is not as valuable to the Big 10 or SEC as State Flagship Public Universities. Are their exceptions? Of course ( USC and ND come to mind, but look what those two schools bring to the table).
@@davidbrown386 Miami is VERY valuable to the Big 10. to say otherwise is just hating. There are tons of Big 10 alums that live in the South especially Florida. Miami recruiting area is always one of the top recruiting areas in the nation. If Big 10 is able to get FSU it makes Miami even more valuable to them as getting 2 of the 3 Florida teams again would be huge for them.
Look at which schools the Big 10 and SEC have been adding: All public flagship universities with the exception of USC. Even Stanford was rejected. I am not saying Miami is not valuable, but they are not as valuable to the big 20 and ( or) SEC as UNC, FSU, ASU, Clemson and although I personally do not want them in the Big 10: UVA.
@@davidbrown386 who is ASU i dont even know what team that is. Clemson is not a Flagship. Also UCLA who was added by Big 10 is NOT a Flagship. The flagship in California is CAL, who was left out by not just the Big 10 but even Big 12 didn't want them. Hell even Florida State technically isn't a flagship. But i get your point, and the Big 10 does want flagships. It's why UNC is more valuable than NC State and why UVA is more valuable than Virginia Tech. That said Miami is still VERY valuable. It's a huge brand for football and is in one of the most loaded areas in the nation for recruiting. There aren't team SOUTH of Miami where the Big 10 can skip over than and still have that area in its conference footprint. For example Big 10 didn't take cal or stanford but took Oregon and Washington who combined with SoCal schools basically put whole west coast in Big 10 footprint. The Big 10 can't just skip Miami and add Puerto Rico U to get the same effect.
Everything depends on the lawsuits and/or settlements of the two that are suing. It's very hard to speculate without knowing what the cost of leaving is, or if the courts shut down leaving entirely (which I don't believe is likely, in spite of the face value analysis of the contracts involved). Until that's reached some sort of conclusion, it's impossible to predict whether or not there will even be an ACC left in 5 years, let alone who could be in it.
This is the primary reason the ACC is in HUGE trouble. ESPN has 10 months to extend or not extend, and they are not extending if there is a chance Clemson, FSU and possibly others ( UNC?) can leave before 2036. Why? Without those schools the value of the ACC will be lower then the Big 12 and ESPN will not pay the ACC more then the Big 12 gets.
Rivalries aside, there's not much likelihood that UNC, NC State, and Duke all will move to the same conference for one simple reason: all three are in the same TV market. I doubt that Fox, CBS, and NBC would be willing to add much to their B1G payments after the first of those three is added, at which point it's hard to see why the B1G would be interested. (Same goes for ESPN and the SEC.) Nothing would stop UNC, NC State, and Duke from playing as members of different conferences, however.
I feel like if FSU, Miami, and Clemson leave for let’s say the SEC then honestly the best move for the ACC is doing some king of a merger with the Big East and returning teams like Syracuse and Louisville to the conference and creating a football only group of teams like they used to have. I think it just makes sense considering the left over teams would all be basketball powers like Duke and UNC and would probably create a great product of a basketball conference but the football side would be relegated to being a group of 5 level product.
That ACC would still be at least peer with the new already Tier 2 BIG12 and wouldn't have lost much (f any) basketball power. Regardless, the ACC "just" losing FSU, CLEMSON & MIAMI has very little chance of happening.
a) Where is CLEMSON going if FSU is the only other ACC school moving? b) If the ACC were to only lose FSU/CLEMSON, the ACC would remain just as "major" as the BIG12.
There is another podcaster who says that a PSU insider has told him the B1G is pursuing an I-95 strategy, ultimately adding UVA, UNC, GT, FSU, and Miami (+ ND) to reach 24. GT, like Maryland, is good for the huge--and growing--Atlanta media market and an "investment" in future potential growth in the CFB program. UVA is the link between Maryland and UNC, and that state has a number of desirable TV markets, as well. FSU is not in the usual B1G academic range, but they have poured lots of money into upgrading their research with the aim of joining the AAU, something that could get a boost from being in the B1G, especially its academic consortium. UNC, Miami, and ND would be automatics, if interested.
If that happens the SEC becomes an also ran. I don’t see the SEC allowing that to happen. My gut says UNC and Clemson ( if the SEC goes 2 schools) and NC State and UVA ( if they go 4). The Big 10 takes FSU plus 1.
Assuming ND continues to remain independent, FSU might want to take UM with them to the Big10. UM has the academic qualifications and it’s a great rivalry. Does the Big10 want two Florida teams? That’s the question.
Florida is multiple TV markets and not one. FSU is north and Miami is south. The Irish have a standing invite to the B1G and are mentioned by name in the TV deal. FSU would not factor in them joining.
@@heartbreak25 FSU probably has more fans in south Florida than UM does. It’s not the north Florida market that makes FSU the biggest ACC brand. FSU also recruits heavily there - as do all the Florida schools and many from out of state. Florida is a very populous state though so I think you could justify 2 schools from that state. Hell, the Big 10 has 2 schools from Indiana - a smaller basketball state - and they want to add a 3rd one - ND. They also have 2 Michigan schools so, I think Florida can justify 2 schools. My ND comment was about the fact that it seems to be a Big 10 wet dream for ND to join them and if they only take 2 schools, FSU is the top candidate. That would leave UM out unless they added at least 4 teams. That may be the case anyway.
@@MrDubyadee1 I'm a PSU alum and live in Chicago which is basically the largest fan base outside of South Bend. The Irish have had a permanent invitation to the B1G for over 50 years. If the B1G has 20 teams, then the Irish are 21. No different than when the B1G was at 11 teams, the Irish would've been 12. They were invited last year again after USC and UCLA which would've made them 19. I'm just saying that they're not a package deal with any other team and there's no quota with the B1G on adding them. Separately from the Irish, priority schools for the B1G would be UNC, FSU, Clemson, Miami, and UVA based on previous invitations and intel. Florida is viewed as three markets: North, Central, and South. It's all about what works for TV revenue, academics, alumni network, and job opportunities. LA has the 2nd most B1G alums after Chicago and Seattle is a magnet for B1G talent with all their tech jobs. The dirty secret int he B1G is that other than OSU, UM, Nebraska and Oregon, no one really cares about winning a natty in football and basketball. We all live in pro sports towns. B1G fans love to travel and a large number of alums and donors already live in Miami. The richest man in Illinois just moved there last year along with Bezos and that's not lost on anyone. So if the B1G only wants two teams it'll be between FSU and UNC/Miami/Clemson.
@@heartbreak25 Clemson doesn't have the academics the Big10 wants - according to all the Big 10 channels. Miami is a small private school - like Northwestern. It doesn't have a big alumni base and most don't live in south Florida. They get a lot of northerners. FSU has a lot of alumni in the Chicago area. We'd usually have a party train that took us to South Bend when playing ND. I'm from Miami but I lived and worked in Chicago until I retired. Bezos went to my High School in Miami.
@@MrDubyadee1 Nebraska and Oregon also don't have B1G academics and they're in the conference. Do I personally want Clemson? No. I don't think they're a cultural fit and I have serious doubts they can sustain winning after Dabo. But based on how the playoff dollars are allocated, then yes, Clemson is a brand fit just like Oregon. Like Northwestern, Miami's university footprint doesn't matter. What matters is the Miami market just like the LA market was important to add UCLA. Right now, the region has a ton of B1G alums who are living in the Midwest and moving there. Those wealthy donors and alums who give back to the universities as a whole above and beyond athletics. And most B1G students and alums would rather spend our falls and winters at away games in Miami which is why there are so many direct flights there. I think there's a reason Miami was given AAU membership last year as a signal there's interest from the B1G whether it happens or not. Miami being an ideal school is not to disparage FSU or any other school. It's just that the B1G doesn't care about existing rivalries of non-B1G members. USC didn't want Oregon in the B1G and it didn't matter because it was a smart business decision. Michigan, MSU, and Indiana didn't want PSU and they were out-voted. Rosemont is going to always propose what's best for all 18 members for better and worse when it comes to winning natties. Adding Miami would be good business as an add-on in my opinion. I don't know any B1G alums who would object.
If I was running PAC2 and ACC conferences - the paperwork would be done already - and adding teams like Tulane, UCF, UCONN and Memphis would be my priority - certainly would be tier 2 - but still a power conference
I think the only teams that will be able to afford to leave the ACC (by paying the exorbitant exit fees, and signing on with a Power2 conference) are Florida State and Clemson. The remaining teams will be better off, because the league's automatic bid (or 2) will be easier to earn, just as they are easier to earn in the watered down Big12, now that Oklahoma and Texas have left.
Tyler, if i understand correct, ESPN is locked in until 2036(?) to the ACC media deal. They can opt out in 2028, but why would they given todays circumstance. The deal is in ESPNs favor and i dont see them pulling out of it unless they are forced to or control the next move.
@@Tims_Tanks remembers that ESPN is owned by Disney. If Disney wants ESPN to get out of the deal with ACC probably will happen. Remember that ACC added Stanford, California and SMU without ESPN being involved.
Look at the current economic situation which isn’t good. The cost of everything going up due to inflation. One thing that people are going to do is cut the cord on cable and satellite television. One reason why ESPN is having trouble is because of cord cutting.
With Fran Brown and his SEC recruiting connections now coaching SYR football, I could see a push for SYR into the SEC. He has already said he's building and SEC program and SYR is the ticket to the largest market in the U.S. Imagins Georgia coming to play SYR in MetLife stadium. I think most ACC guys overvalue the old school ACC teams. Clemson is not as high value as Clemson fans think but they are a ticket into South Carolina which the B10 will need. Other than that I can see the SEC looking at one North Carolina School- probably UNC. and the SEC could pick up another school in Florida- maybe Miami over FSU for logistics. The rest of the ACC will scramble to get into the B12
a) I don't see the SEC expanding outside of the greater Southeast. b) The BIG12 is already a Tier 2 conference. For what purpose would an ACC remainder move there?
@@tarheel7406 If it's about money, the largest TV markets are not in the southeast. If the SEC is not in those markets, they will fall behind in market share and money. The thinking is the B10 is trying to move into southern (SEC) markets with FSU and Clemson. SEC would have no choice but to move into new markets.
@@DaMann-zm6kt a) College teams are about states and brands. b) FSU is a #2 in a large state but would likely suffer on a B1G island. CLEMSON is a #2 in a smaller state. c) Again, the SEC's geo-centric brand has high value, I don't see the SEC expanding outside of the greater Southeast. Consider the following select census data: 1980: TX ~14,229K PA ~11,864K IL ~11,427K OH ~10,798K FL ~09,746K MI ~09,262K NC ~05,882K GA ~05,463K VA ~05,347K IA ~02,914K 2020: TX ~29,146K FL ~21,538K PA ~13,003K IL ~12,813K OH ~11,799K GA ~10,712K NC ~10,439K MI ~10,077K VA ~08,631K IA ~3,190K
@@tarheel7406 If the SEC does not expand it cannot grow. Television deals are about media markets. SEC can't let the B10 move into their southern markets (Florida and South Carolina) without the SEC moving into some B10 markets. The SEC payout is about $60 million per school. No current ACC team can match that value. There's no place for the SEC to grow in the south without competing against itself. It needs to open up in new markets. Here are the largest TV markets: 1 New York 2 Los Angeles 3 Chicago 4 Philadelphia 5 Dallas-Fort Worth 6 Atlanta 7 Houston 8 Washington-Hagerstown 9 Boston-Manchester 10 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose Media markets are, of course, based on cities and not states. However, I know more UGA fans (Athens) in Atlanta then I know Georgia Tech (Atlanta) fans. Would the SEC need GT for the Atlanta market ? I don't think so. A strong UGA and a weak GT is all the marketing they need in Ga. Same would be the case in Florida. I would not take FSU (Northern Florida) to the SEC which already has University of Florida (basically also Northern/Central Florida) but would consider Miami (Southern Florida and #18 media market). I believe the two super conferences are headed towards national footprints. For the SEC that means leaving their southern "comfort" zone and grabbing a larger piece of America. The ACC is made up of mostly second and third tier southern schools. There's nothing in the southern part of the ACC that has value to the SEC. FSU and Clemson can only eye the B10.
All i know is between fundraising and Fedex Memphis is head and shoulders over any G5s far as investing at this moment in time. Alot of momentum in that football program!
PAC 2, USF, Memphis, Tulane, U Conn and the remaining ACC teams would make the best of the rest conference. The rebuilt ACC could also include SDSU and Boise St. to lock up the 4th best conference. That conference could challenge the Big 12 for 3rd best conference as it would have better TV markets.
Why should Miami (or any other ACC school) want to make less $$$ by joining the B12? Why wouldn’t a B12 school want to go to the ACC if, even after some losses to the ACc lineup, that B12 school could make more $$$ in the ACC? I’m pretty sure the B12 has lost a few teams to other conferences over $$$ in the past several years.
From a TC perspective, Syracuse would be sting add for B12 especially from BB perspective. You should talk to WildUte or your Locked in Syracuse person.
OSu and Oregon are totally different than unc and NCState. Ncsu and unc are managed by a supervising Board of Governors- this board is over the subordinate unc and NCState boards of trustees.
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball Spencer I have several questions for you. What if ESPN decided not to renew their contract with ACC. What would happen in this situation? My second question is what if Stanford is able gets into the Big Ten with Norte Dame. California gets left behind by Stanford. What happens to California in this scenario?
If just Clemson and FSU leave, then Notre Dame will be playing for the ACC championship every year. Stanford would have most power 5 conference former championships (15) in the remaining ACC, and would end up having to beat ND twice in a season to win their first ACC CHIP. Neither Clemson nor FSU have proven capable of beating Notre Dame twice in a season.
@tarheel7406 OK Notre DAME DID play for the ACC title in 2020 but came up short against Clemson even though they beat them earlier that season, I forgot they reverted back to non eligibility for the ACC crown. I assume Clemson wants into the SEC, but I'm unsure how SEC member SC would feel about that. FSU: Well, FSU is so schizophrenic that no one knows where they want to land, except you best believe it involves money....They've strayed so far from their mission statement from back when they created the DIXIE conference, the NCAA should just outright ban them from football. They will be nothing but trouble to any conference they join, and I don't mean that in a football competition sense. ....... In 1948, the administration of Florida State University, which had returned to coeducation in 1947 after more than 40 years as a women's college, wrote leaders at other southern institutions seeking to create a "purely amateur" athletic conference. The NCAA had recently tightened its rules on the amount of money that could be paid to collegiate athletes, which caused difficulty for many established athletic programs. Florida State hoped to create a new conference based on the principle of complete amateurism, including no athletic scholarships.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp a) Correct. ND qualified for ACC champ game during the one-off bug season. It no longer qualifies. b) The SEC is unlikely to expand until UNC is either secured or lost; CLEMSON's options are contingent on that. c) Agree. FSU has revealed poison and it not being ready to be considered a higher value, influential school.
@tarheel7406 Would NC bolt without their "oldest rivalry in the south" partner, Virginia? I know it isn't what it once used to be, but that would still be somewhat of a tragedy. Even if it continued out of conference, it would be reduced to symbolic status.
Can we stop talking about records, it don’t mean sh**!!!! Get out this sh**. Are eyeballs watching you, that’s what matters!!! These people need a helmet with a drool cup.
ACC grant of rights is busted if 8 team decide to leave it looks like that is getting closer to happening. NC State, UNC,Clemson,FSU, are already ready to leave add Muami, Louisville and Pitt just needs one more and it's automatically done. Louisville has always preferred the Big12 over ACC Pitt wants their top rivalry back with WVU. I think its already done unfortunately.
@@tarheel7406 Wow, you never stop. Again, please explain how the N.C football program is a highly rated brand? Last I saw East Carolina getting better ratings.
ACC is exploding in 2027 anyway. ESPN is not going to resign. So the exit fee will be gone. So.. with that being said. Clemson & fsu might be able to get out for around 35 mill. Right now.
Miami might have a winning tradition and fertile recruiting grounds but no stadium on campus and a fan base that doesn't show up for home games or travel out of state. Nobody wants Duke, lump them in with BC, Syracuse, & WF bottom feeders. UNC & NCState have appeal, UNC has B1G all over it while NCState & VT would actually be a good fit in the SEC. If GT gets an invite anywhere it's because of the TV market, other than that they're pretty much a bottom feeder sponging off the top 7 schools. It's about to get interesting, the chess pieces have started to move and FSU will make the 1st kill within the next couple months. Also Clemson imo is about the same as Auburn, perfect for the SEC.
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball only their degree and basketball tradition is, other than that they are a complete sponge that brings nothing to the table. They are essentially a tiny Napoleon school like a Georgetown or a Witchataw State. No TV market unless they’re playing UNC. Zero value except for a basketball conference
Only 9 Max are going to the P2 and Big12 with ND potentially bring a 10. That is best csse scenario for existing teams wanting to leave. Shoe Ins UNC, FSU, Clem,Miami Some but not all of these. 5 best case, 1-3 likely UVA, NCState,Vtech, Louisville, Pitt, Duke Last 4 with no hope in order Georgia Tech, Stanford Syracuse, California, Wake, BostonCollege, SMU As far as Syracuse, UConn would argueably be better. In any case no hope for any of them.
Here is my breakdown: Certain landing spot in Big 10 or SEC: Clemson, FSU, ND & UNC. Possible P-2 or definite B12 landing spot. Miami, NC State, Stanford & UVA. Probable B12 landing spot: Louisville, Pitt & VT. Better pray for the ACC: BC, Cal, Duke, SMU, Syracuse & WF
The point is that if the ACC went Lusitania to the PAC’s Titanic, schools like Louisville have an option?in the Big XII ( like it or not ( see Arizona compared to Arizona State)), while the Wake Forest’s of the world will be in the same boat as OSU and WSU.
@@davidbrown386 If the ACC depletes out so heavily to the SEC/B1G that the BIG12 starts to look pretty, the BIG12 will be irrelevant and it won't matter what the P5 remainders do.
Without Clemson & FSU they are not a Power Conference. The 3 Power Conferences Big 12, SEC, & Big 10 are not taking all those teams. ESPN is going to kill the ACC, because it would force the big 3 Conferences into PODS. It’s over for the PAC 12 & ACC .
How is B12 still considered P5 with only two good teams in Baylor and K State? The rest have only two big 12 titles between them, three if you want to count 2001 Colorado.
The BIG12 isn't really a power conference now. It's the worst academically, athletically, and has the lowest prestige and media value per team among the current P4. No new BIG12 school has won a football natty in over 25 years and have only made a single appearance in the title game during that time.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cpexactly! OU and Texas leave the X12 and stay P4 by adding cinnci, BYU, Houston, and UCF But if FSU and clemson leave the ACC and they add UCONN, USF, MEMPHIS, and TULANE then what's the damn difference?
Pull in uconn, USF, Memphis and tulane. Who's to say after that you can't work out a war on I-4 and the back yard brawl. And renew the Cincinnati/ Louisville rivalry. You grab those 7 with what's left its still tier 2. And big markets!
I just find it funny that people are still trying to push The big 12 as a major conference it’s going to go the same way as the big east and the Pac 12 irrelevant when the ACC leaves they’re just going to be two major conferences. The only people that care about the big 12 are fans of teams from the big 12 the rest of college fans will not care about it. They’ll think of it as one of the smaller seven Conferences. I’m pretty sure about this you’ll see it in the next decade where there’s gonna be zero champions from college basketball and football.
@@stevemoserify that’s so funny even though you watch this channel locked on college football you people are so funny you pretend that you don’t like college football but you go watch all these college football TH-cam channels haha
Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, GT, USF, SMU, Tulane, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, SDSU.
Add UConn, PAC2, San Diego St., Duke, Syracuse, BC, Wake, GT, SMU, Cal, Stanford and maybe Memphis/Tulane.
ESPN would surely ask to redo the TV deal
Miami is being quiet because they are a private school and as such they don't have the same legal arguments that FSU and Clemson are trying to use that as state schools the grant of rights are especially prohibitive to them as public institutions. FSU and Clemson are counting on their state governments to help them in their respective cases, Miami has no such luxury as a private school.
Miami as a private school is not as valuable to the Big 10 or SEC as State Flagship Public Universities. Are their exceptions? Of course ( USC and ND come to mind, but look what those two schools bring to the table).
@@davidbrown386 Miami is VERY valuable to the Big 10. to say otherwise is just hating. There are tons of Big 10 alums that live in the South especially Florida. Miami recruiting area is always one of the top recruiting areas in the nation. If Big 10 is able to get FSU it makes Miami even more valuable to them as getting 2 of the 3 Florida teams again would be huge for them.
Look at which schools the Big 10 and SEC have been adding: All public flagship universities with the exception of USC. Even Stanford was rejected. I am not saying Miami is not valuable, but they are not as valuable to the big 20 and ( or) SEC as UNC, FSU, ASU, Clemson and although I personally do not want them in the Big 10: UVA.
@@davidbrown386 comparing stanford and Miami is laughable to me
@@davidbrown386 who is ASU i dont even know what team that is. Clemson is not a Flagship. Also UCLA who was added by Big 10 is NOT a Flagship. The flagship in California is CAL, who was left out by not just the Big 10 but even Big 12 didn't want them. Hell even Florida State technically isn't a flagship. But i get your point, and the Big 10 does want flagships. It's why UNC is more valuable than NC State and why UVA is more valuable than Virginia Tech. That said Miami is still VERY valuable. It's a huge brand for football and is in one of the most loaded areas in the nation for recruiting. There aren't team SOUTH of Miami where the Big 10 can skip over than and still have that area in its conference footprint. For example Big 10 didn't take cal or stanford but took Oregon and Washington who combined with SoCal schools basically put whole west coast in Big 10 footprint. The Big 10 can't just skip Miami and add Puerto Rico U to get the same effect.
Everything depends on the lawsuits and/or settlements of the two that are suing. It's very hard to speculate without knowing what the cost of leaving is, or if the courts shut down leaving entirely (which I don't believe is likely, in spite of the face value analysis of the contracts involved).
Until that's reached some sort of conclusion, it's impossible to predict whether or not there will even be an ACC left in 5 years, let alone who could be in it.
This is the primary reason the ACC is in HUGE trouble. ESPN has 10 months to extend or not extend, and they are not extending if there is a chance Clemson, FSU and possibly others ( UNC?) can leave before 2036. Why? Without those schools the value of the ACC will be lower then the Big 12 and ESPN will not pay the ACC more then the Big 12 gets.
Rivalries aside, there's not much likelihood that UNC, NC State, and Duke all will move to the same conference for one simple reason: all three are in the same TV market. I doubt that Fox, CBS, and NBC would be willing to add much to their B1G payments after the first of those three is added, at which point it's hard to see why the B1G would be interested. (Same goes for ESPN and the SEC.) Nothing would stop UNC, NC State, and Duke from playing as members of different conferences, however.
DUKE is a private school with a more national alumni and extended fanbase.
The teams that just joined really need it. SMU think they are about to play big time football again
SMU had to know that ACC depletion was certain. UCF thinks it's now big time.
I feel like if FSU, Miami, and Clemson leave for let’s say the SEC then honestly the best move for the ACC is doing some king of a merger with the Big East and returning teams like Syracuse and Louisville to the conference and creating a football only group of teams like they used to have. I think it just makes sense considering the left over teams would all be basketball powers like Duke and UNC and would probably create a great product of a basketball conference but the football side would be relegated to being a group of 5 level product.
That ACC would still be at least peer with the new already Tier 2 BIG12 and wouldn't have lost much (f any) basketball power. Regardless, the ACC "just" losing FSU, CLEMSON & MIAMI has very little chance of happening.
a) Where is CLEMSON going if FSU is the only other ACC school moving?
b) If the ACC were to only lose FSU/CLEMSON, the ACC would remain just as "major" as the BIG12.
There is another podcaster who says that a PSU insider has told him the B1G is pursuing an I-95 strategy, ultimately adding UVA, UNC, GT, FSU, and Miami (+ ND) to reach 24. GT, like Maryland, is good for the huge--and growing--Atlanta media market and an "investment" in future potential growth in the CFB program. UVA is the link between Maryland and UNC, and that state has a number of desirable TV markets, as well. FSU is not in the usual B1G academic range, but they have poured lots of money into upgrading their research with the aim of joining the AAU, something that could get a boost from being in the B1G, especially its academic consortium. UNC, Miami, and ND would be automatics, if interested.
That would come full circle to my circa late 2021 thinking. Strange.
If that happens the SEC becomes an also ran. I don’t see the SEC allowing that to happen. My gut says UNC and Clemson ( if the SEC goes 2 schools) and NC State and UVA ( if they go 4). The Big 10 takes FSU plus 1.
Assuming ND continues to remain independent, FSU might want to take UM with them to the Big10. UM has the academic qualifications and it’s a great rivalry. Does the Big10 want two Florida teams? That’s the question.
Florida is multiple TV markets and not one. FSU is north and Miami is south. The Irish have a standing invite to the B1G and are mentioned by name in the TV deal. FSU would not factor in them joining.
@@heartbreak25 FSU probably has more fans in south Florida than UM does. It’s not the north Florida market that makes FSU the biggest ACC brand. FSU also recruits heavily there - as do all the Florida schools and many from out of state. Florida is a very populous state though so I think you could justify 2 schools from that state. Hell, the Big 10 has 2 schools from Indiana - a smaller basketball state - and they want to add a 3rd one - ND. They also have 2 Michigan schools so, I think Florida can justify 2 schools. My ND comment was about the fact that it seems to be a Big 10 wet dream for ND to join them and if they only take 2 schools, FSU is the top candidate. That would leave UM out unless they added at least 4 teams. That may be the case anyway.
@@MrDubyadee1 I'm a PSU alum and live in Chicago which is basically the largest fan base outside of South Bend. The Irish have had a permanent invitation to the B1G for over 50 years. If the B1G has 20 teams, then the Irish are 21. No different than when the B1G was at 11 teams, the Irish would've been 12. They were invited last year again after USC and UCLA which would've made them 19. I'm just saying that they're not a package deal with any other team and there's no quota with the B1G on adding them.
Separately from the Irish, priority schools for the B1G would be UNC, FSU, Clemson, Miami, and UVA based on previous invitations and intel. Florida is viewed as three markets: North, Central, and South. It's all about what works for TV revenue, academics, alumni network, and job opportunities. LA has the 2nd most B1G alums after Chicago and Seattle is a magnet for B1G talent with all their tech jobs.
The dirty secret int he B1G is that other than OSU, UM, Nebraska and Oregon, no one really cares about winning a natty in football and basketball. We all live in pro sports towns. B1G fans love to travel and a large number of alums and donors already live in Miami. The richest man in Illinois just moved there last year along with Bezos and that's not lost on anyone. So if the B1G only wants two teams it'll be between FSU and UNC/Miami/Clemson.
@@heartbreak25 Clemson doesn't have the academics the Big10 wants - according to all the Big 10 channels. Miami is a small private school - like Northwestern. It doesn't have a big alumni base and most don't live in south Florida. They get a lot of northerners. FSU has a lot of alumni in the Chicago area. We'd usually have a party train that took us to South Bend when playing ND. I'm from Miami but I lived and worked in Chicago until I retired. Bezos went to my High School in Miami.
@@MrDubyadee1 Nebraska and Oregon also don't have B1G academics and they're in the conference. Do I personally want Clemson? No. I don't think they're a cultural fit and I have serious doubts they can sustain winning after Dabo. But based on how the playoff dollars are allocated, then yes, Clemson is a brand fit just like Oregon.
Like Northwestern, Miami's university footprint doesn't matter. What matters is the Miami market just like the LA market was important to add UCLA. Right now, the region has a ton of B1G alums who are living in the Midwest and moving there. Those wealthy donors and alums who give back to the universities as a whole above and beyond athletics. And most B1G students and alums would rather spend our falls and winters at away games in Miami which is why there are so many direct flights there. I think there's a reason Miami was given AAU membership last year as a signal there's interest from the B1G whether it happens or not.
Miami being an ideal school is not to disparage FSU or any other school. It's just that the B1G doesn't care about existing rivalries of non-B1G members. USC didn't want Oregon in the B1G and it didn't matter because it was a smart business decision. Michigan, MSU, and Indiana didn't want PSU and they were out-voted. Rosemont is going to always propose what's best for all 18 members for better and worse when it comes to winning natties. Adding Miami would be good business as an add-on in my opinion. I don't know any B1G alums who would object.
PAC 12 -ACC merger? + Tulane, UCF or a Memphis?
Don't hate it.
If I was running PAC2 and ACC conferences - the paperwork would be done already - and adding teams like Tulane, UCF, UCONN and Memphis would be my priority - certainly would be tier 2 - but still a power conference
ACC RULES THE NCAAT AS USUAL!
I think the only teams that will be able to afford to leave the ACC (by paying the exorbitant exit fees, and signing on with a Power2 conference) are Florida State and Clemson. The remaining teams will be better off, because the league's automatic bid (or 2) will be easier to earn, just as they are easier to earn in the watered down Big12, now that Oklahoma and Texas have left.
I think the Big 10/SEC will trim it down to 1 auto bid if it's just FSU/Clemson that leave
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball I have a question for you. What if ESPN decided not to renew their contract with ACC.
Tyler, if i understand correct, ESPN is locked in until 2036(?) to the ACC media deal. They can opt out in 2028, but why would they given todays circumstance. The deal is in ESPNs favor and i dont see them pulling out of it unless they are forced to or control the next move.
@@Tims_Tanks remembers that ESPN is owned by Disney. If Disney wants ESPN to get out of the deal with ACC probably will happen. Remember that ACC added Stanford, California and SMU without ESPN being involved.
Look at the current economic situation which isn’t good. The cost of everything going up due to inflation. One thing that people are going to do is cut the cord on cable and satellite television. One reason why ESPN is having trouble is because of cord cutting.
With Fran Brown and his SEC recruiting connections now coaching SYR football, I could see a push for SYR into the SEC. He has already said he's building and SEC program and SYR is the ticket to the largest market in the U.S. Imagins Georgia coming to play SYR in MetLife stadium. I think most ACC guys overvalue the old school ACC teams. Clemson is not as high value as Clemson fans think but they are a ticket into South Carolina which the B10 will need. Other than that I can see the SEC looking at one North Carolina School- probably UNC. and the SEC could pick up another school in Florida- maybe Miami over FSU for logistics. The rest of the ACC will scramble to get into the B12
a) I don't see the SEC expanding outside of the greater Southeast.
b) The BIG12 is already a Tier 2 conference. For what purpose would an ACC remainder move there?
@@tarheel7406 If it's about money, the largest TV markets are not in the southeast. If the SEC is not in those markets, they will fall behind in market share and money.
The thinking is the B10 is trying to move into southern (SEC) markets with FSU and Clemson. SEC would have no choice but to move into new markets.
@@DaMann-zm6kt
a) College teams are about states and brands.
b) FSU is a #2 in a large state but would likely suffer on a B1G island. CLEMSON is a #2 in a smaller state.
c) Again, the SEC's geo-centric brand has high value, I don't see the SEC expanding outside of the greater Southeast.
Consider the following select census data:
1980:
TX ~14,229K
PA ~11,864K
IL ~11,427K
OH ~10,798K
FL ~09,746K
MI ~09,262K
NC ~05,882K
GA ~05,463K
VA ~05,347K
IA ~02,914K
2020:
TX ~29,146K
FL ~21,538K
PA ~13,003K
IL ~12,813K
OH ~11,799K
GA ~10,712K
NC ~10,439K
MI ~10,077K
VA ~08,631K
IA ~3,190K
@@tarheel7406 If the SEC does not expand it cannot grow. Television deals are about media markets. SEC can't let the B10 move into their southern markets (Florida and South Carolina) without the SEC moving into some B10 markets. The SEC payout is about $60 million per school. No current ACC team can match that value. There's no place for the SEC to grow in the south without competing against itself. It needs to open up in new markets. Here are the largest TV markets:
1 New York 2 Los Angeles 3 Chicago 4 Philadelphia 5 Dallas-Fort Worth 6 Atlanta 7 Houston 8 Washington-Hagerstown 9 Boston-Manchester 10 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Media markets are, of course, based on cities and not states. However, I know more UGA fans (Athens) in Atlanta then I know Georgia Tech (Atlanta) fans. Would the SEC need GT for the Atlanta market ? I don't think so. A strong UGA and a weak GT is all the marketing they need in Ga. Same would be the case in Florida. I would not take FSU (Northern Florida) to the SEC which already has University of Florida (basically also Northern/Central Florida) but would consider Miami (Southern Florida and #18 media market).
I believe the two super conferences are headed towards national footprints. For the SEC that means leaving their southern "comfort" zone and grabbing a larger piece of America. The ACC is made up of mostly second and third tier southern schools. There's nothing in the southern part of the ACC that has value to the SEC. FSU and Clemson can only eye the B10.
All i know is between fundraising and Fedex Memphis is head and shoulders over any G5s far as investing at this moment in time. Alot of momentum in that football program!
They probably have the best roster in the AAC, at least per 247Sports rankings. But they have dudes
PAC 2, USF, Memphis, Tulane, U Conn and the remaining ACC teams would make the best of the rest conference. The rebuilt ACC could also include SDSU and Boise St. to lock up the 4th best conference. That conference could challenge the Big 12 for 3rd best conference as it would have better TV markets.
there is also possibility these schools join Big East and Big East once again becomes half basketball half both sports.
Why should Miami (or any other ACC school) want to make less $$$ by joining the B12?
Why wouldn’t a B12 school want to go to the ACC if, even after some losses to the ACc lineup, that B12 school could make more $$$ in the ACC?
I’m pretty sure the B12 has lost a few teams to other conferences over $$$ in the past several years.
IMO the B12 only becomes an option if FSU/Clemson get P2 invites, otherwise there is no reason
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball If the ACC "only" lost CLEMSON/FSU, why would any remainder go to the already Tier 2 BIG12?
@@tarheel7406 Perception of momentum
I wouldn't, personally
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball These are institutions, and there is inertia. Look what it took for the PAC to finally scatter.
Why would anyone leave the ACC for the big 12 😂😂😂 FSU and Clemson might leave but that's it acc isn't going anywhere cope harder
From a TC perspective, Syracuse would be sting add for B12 especially from BB perspective. You should talk to WildUte or your Locked in Syracuse person.
Nobody wants Cuse… their bb program was good 10 years ago, not anymore
OSu and Oregon are totally different than unc and NCState. Ncsu and unc are managed by a supervising Board of Governors- this board is over the subordinate unc and NCState boards of trustees.
North Carolina has a larger, fast-growing population than Oregon. UNC & NCSTATE are better schools than OREGON & OREST.
All that said, I think Spencer got the tiers correctly.
I try!
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball Spencer I have several questions for you. What if ESPN decided not to renew their contract with ACC. What would happen in this situation? My second question is what if Stanford is able gets into the Big Ten with Norte Dame. California gets left behind by Stanford. What happens to California in this scenario?
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball Spencer what your thoughts on the idea of having a super conference with 70 members.
Syracuse will be able to join big10 football trending up basketball will always get ratings and academic wise chance to market all of New York
Big12 > Acc
Delusional
Unc and Duke is basketball nor football. All changes are being done for football. Duke and wake are probably the least valuable football programs.
If just Clemson and FSU leave, then Notre Dame will be playing for the ACC championship every year. Stanford would have most power 5 conference former championships (15) in the remaining ACC, and would end up having to beat ND twice in a season to win their first ACC CHIP. Neither Clemson nor FSU have proven capable of beating Notre Dame twice in a season.
Nope...
a) Where is CLEMSON going if just with FSU?
b) ND doesn't qualify for the ACC championship game.
@tarheel7406 OK Notre DAME DID play for the ACC title in 2020 but came up short against Clemson even though they beat them earlier that season, I forgot they reverted back to non eligibility for the ACC crown. I assume Clemson wants into the SEC, but I'm unsure how SEC member SC would feel about that. FSU: Well, FSU is so schizophrenic that no one knows where they want to land, except you best believe it involves money....They've strayed so far from their mission statement from back when they created the DIXIE conference, the NCAA should just outright ban them from football. They will be nothing but trouble to any conference they join, and I don't mean that in a football competition sense.
....... In 1948, the administration of Florida State University, which had returned to coeducation in 1947 after more than 40 years as a women's college, wrote leaders at other southern institutions seeking to create a "purely amateur" athletic conference. The NCAA had recently tightened its rules on the amount of money that could be paid to collegiate athletes, which caused difficulty for many established athletic programs. Florida State hoped to create a new conference based on the principle of complete amateurism, including no athletic scholarships.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp
a) Correct. ND qualified for ACC champ game during the one-off bug season. It no longer qualifies.
b) The SEC is unlikely to expand until UNC is either secured or lost; CLEMSON's options are contingent on that.
c) Agree. FSU has revealed poison and it not being ready to be considered a higher value, influential school.
@tarheel7406 Would NC bolt without their "oldest rivalry in the south" partner, Virginia? I know it isn't what it once used to be, but that would still be somewhat of a tragedy. Even if it continued out of conference, it would be reduced to symbolic status.
BC and Wake.
Can we stop talking about records, it don’t mean sh**!!!! Get out this sh**. Are eyeballs watching you, that’s what matters!!! These people need a helmet with a drool cup.
ACC grant of rights is busted if 8 team decide to leave it looks like that is getting closer to happening. NC State, UNC,Clemson,FSU, are already ready to leave add Muami, Louisville and Pitt just needs one more and it's automatically done. Louisville has always preferred the Big12 over ACC Pitt wants their top rivalry back with WVU. I think its already done unfortunately.
Poor Stanford and Cal...stuck in the ACC.
*Pac-12 noises*
They will rejoin osu and wsu.
Poor 4Cs, stuck in the BIG12.
Lol it's hilarious
@@tarheel7406 Wow, you never stop. Again, please explain how the N.C football program is a highly rated brand? Last I saw East Carolina getting better ratings.
ACC is exploding in 2027 anyway. ESPN is not going to resign. So the exit fee will be gone. So.. with that being said. Clemson & fsu might be able to get out for around 35 mill. Right now.
Who cares ? Not 20 million Seminoles.
Miami might have a winning tradition and fertile recruiting grounds but no stadium on campus and a fan base that doesn't show up for home games or travel out of state. Nobody wants Duke, lump them in with BC, Syracuse, & WF bottom feeders. UNC & NCState have appeal, UNC has B1G all over it while NCState & VT would actually be a good fit in the SEC. If GT gets an invite anywhere it's because of the TV market, other than that they're pretty much a bottom feeder sponging off the top 7 schools. It's about to get interesting, the chess pieces have started to move and FSU will make the 1st kill within the next couple months. Also Clemson imo is about the same as Auburn, perfect for the SEC.
Duke is such a premier university, I have a hard time seeing them get left behind
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball only their degree and basketball tradition is, other than that they are a complete sponge that brings nothing to the table. They are essentially a tiny Napoleon school like a Georgetown or a Witchataw State. No TV market unless they’re playing UNC. Zero value except for a basketball conference
Duke is a weaker version of Stanford and the Big 10 ( and more importantly Fox) rejected Stanford: I could easily see them left behind in the ACC.
@@davidbrown386 DUKE has a high draw blue revenue sport while STANFORD doesn't. That's a material difference.
Stanford has the Bay Area TV market, and traditionally is better at football then Duke.
Only 9 Max are going to the P2 and Big12 with ND potentially bring a 10. That is best csse scenario for existing teams wanting to leave.
Shoe Ins
UNC, FSU, Clem,Miami
Some but not all of these. 5 best case, 1-3 likely
UVA, NCState,Vtech, Louisville, Pitt, Duke
Last 4 with no hope in order Georgia Tech, Stanford Syracuse, California, Wake, BostonCollege, SMU
As far as Syracuse, UConn would argueably be better. In any case no hope for any of them.
Why move to the already Tier 2 BIG12?
Miami had no fan base local. They don't have a stadium and most of thier games have 10% full stadiums. They are not highly sought after
Here is my breakdown: Certain landing spot in Big 10 or SEC: Clemson, FSU, ND & UNC. Possible P-2 or definite B12 landing spot. Miami, NC State, Stanford & UVA. Probable B12 landing spot: Louisville, Pitt & VT. Better pray for the ACC: BC, Cal, Duke, SMU, Syracuse & WF
No ACC member wants to go to the new BIG12. It's already a Tier 2.
The point is that if the ACC went Lusitania to the PAC’s Titanic, schools like Louisville have an option?in the Big XII ( like it or not ( see Arizona compared to Arizona State)), while the Wake Forest’s of the world will be in the same boat as OSU and WSU.
@@davidbrown386 If the ACC depletes out so heavily to the SEC/B1G that the BIG12 starts to look pretty, the BIG12 will be irrelevant and it won't matter what the P5 remainders do.
A new ACC could work with:
Boston College
Syracuse
Wake forest
Tulane
SMU
Memphis
UMass
UTSA
Liberty
USF
Delaware (FBS in 2025)
Without Clemson & FSU they are not a Power Conference. The 3 Power Conferences Big 12, SEC, & Big 10 are not taking all those teams. ESPN is going to kill the ACC, because it would force the big 3 Conferences into PODS. It’s over for the PAC 12 & ACC .
How is B12 still considered P5 with only two good teams in Baylor and K State? The rest have only two big 12 titles between them, three if you want to count 2001 Colorado.
The BIG12 isn't really a power conference now. It's the worst academically, athletically, and has the lowest prestige and media value per team among the current P4.
No new BIG12 school has won a football natty in over 25 years and have only made a single appearance in the title game during that time.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cpexactly! OU and Texas leave the X12 and stay P4 by adding cinnci, BYU, Houston, and UCF But if FSU and clemson leave the ACC and they add UCONN, USF, MEMPHIS, and TULANE then what's the damn difference?
Pull in uconn, USF, Memphis and tulane. Who's to say after that you can't work out a war on I-4 and the back yard brawl. And renew the Cincinnati/ Louisville rivalry. You grab those 7 with what's left its still tier 2. And big markets!
I just find it funny that people are still trying to push The big 12 as a major conference it’s going to go the same way as the big east and the Pac 12 irrelevant when the ACC leaves they’re just going to be two major conferences. The only people that care about the big 12 are fans of teams from the big 12 the rest of college fans will not care about it. They’ll think of it as one of the smaller seven Conferences. I’m pretty sure about this you’ll see it in the next decade where there’s gonna be zero champions from college basketball and football.
I'm about to give up college football altogether. The NFL is vastly superior. College football is pretty boring for the most part.
Who cares about football??
NCAAT FOR THE WIN!!
@@scottmorrison147 Clearly you do since you’re watching this channel
@@stevemoserify that’s so funny even though you watch this channel locked on college football you people are so funny you pretend that you don’t like college football but you go watch all these college football TH-cam channels haha
NCAAT > cfp