0:57 Thank you! Analytics have always been in the sport. High BA guys hit in the top of the order in the 1800s, we just have advanced analytics and better math as you pointed out. I'm glad you made the distinction because it seems like "analytics" get scape-goated by the old heads too much.
K's and HRs are so cliche anymore. I enjoy the strategic side of the game. SBs, hit and run, the squeeze play, solid situational hitting. That's the style I love. As far as the strikezone goes, the majority of the ball should be in the zone to be called a strike. That's assuming the zone doesn't change and robot umps are used.
I was at the Hall of Fame museum back in the 90's looking at that mosaic of Ted Williams batting avg in different zones and wondered if he had an A, B, and C Swing. Love your take on analytics. "We have math now..." Love it.
Pitching back then was nowhere near as good. It's a lot harder to hit now and there isn't time to decide if you want to use your A, B, or C swing. You just gotta go off your instinctive swing
...and we're currently in the toilet because we can't seem to keep pitchers healthy. That, and I'm convinced that Blake Snell is secretly on the Dodgers' payroll...
@@madxD144 I think both parts are true, they haven’t had a 30 Homerun hitter in years because of the park, but they also were able to win three World Series because of their pitching
Actually, I love your idea of ABS as well as a smaller strike zone. This feels like a balanced change. You allow the pitcher to keep their arsenals while also forcing them to have solid command of their pitches. It would also give hitters a better chance at getting contact. I know dudes like Pat Hoberg are doing well with umping, but ABS would ensure 100% fairness which is exactly what the strike zone needs to be. Obviously, hitters have different stances, and the zone increases or decreases in size with each hitter but if we figured out ABS, I think the game would become way more exciting. incredibly lethal pitchers would become that much scarier and the duel itself would become much more interesting for both sides.
I really hope Nick Allen hears what you had to say about what his approach should be at the plate. If he does what you said and focus on not striking out and smacking singles like Altuve does and Ichiro did he could be a good defensive shortstop, and would make a great utility infielder. I've been rooting for Allen since I first saw his electric defense in the bigs.
Crazy, pitchers were exp at that time cheating for years. Hitters cheat every one flips out. Also ur dumb af if you think the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox were the only teams doing that. They all were. Exp the dodgers that year. Look at the year the dodgers had. Most of the guys like a lot of the Astros had the best year of there career and a lot of them have not even come close to those numbers again.
Wild idea here Trev, why don't the umpires just call strikes correctly then? A ball, 2 balls off the corner should NEVER be a strike. (*wait for the "too close to take" comments) I'll give umps a pass on high/low since the batter dictates the height of the zone. Hitting is hard enough as it is, but having to cover 2 balls off the plate makes it impossible with everyone throwing 95+ now. I will add that the current philosophy of hitting "launch angle and exit velocity" is also contributing to the poor overall hitting stats league-wide. Everyone is essentially trying to be an all or nothing power hitter now, with the few Arraez-type outliers that still actually HIT. Inconsistent strike zone + higher velocity pitches + obsession with launch angle/exit velocity = poor hitting numbers
Get behind the plate and see how hard it is to call balls and strikes. In the NCAA, at least when i played, there was a portion of the preseason where coaches couldn't be on the field and we had to ump the games ourselves. As a pitcher, i felt i knew the strike zone, and as someone who was also a decent hitter, i felt i would have a great time back there...nope! I couldn't call anything, with great certainty, that wasn't down main Street. And as far as launch angle/exit velo discourse goes, did you watch the video? Trev explains the thinking behind the concepts in this video perfectly
I know he's a freaking beast, but if they made any more changes to pitching/fielding Judge would be even more insane. He's arguably having a better year than he did in 2022. In 82 games he has 64 runs, 91 hits, 23 doubles (had 28 in '22), 1 3b (0 in '22), 30 HR, 79 RBI, .310 avg (.311 in '22), .431 OBP (.425 in '22), .701 SLG (.686 in '22) with an OPS of 1.131 (1.111 in '22). If he stays healthy I fully expect him to get to 60 HR and 130+ RBI again. Shrink the strikezone on him and oh boy, he might hit .330 with less than 150 Ks, 120-130 walks, 60-70 HRs and 150 RBI every year.
His HRs have an asterisk since he gets to hit at Yankee stadium. Obv he's able to take advantage of it which is good on him, but still gives him 5-10 extra HRs.
@@Heybrotruthhurts 1st off, Judge is a righty...it's Lefties that get the Yankee Stadium "short porch". Not to mention the fact that his Home-Away HR splits are IN FAVOR OF AWAY...he has 15 HR's at home and 17 on the road. Of all his HR's only 6 have been Opposite field this year, with 11 being pulled to left field and 15 going to center. So your entire comment is dumb and irrelevant. Left Center is 399 in Yankee Stadium with Center being 408. FOH
One easier thing MLB could do to increase offense is to stop calling a check swing so close. It wasn't always this way that check swing was almost always a strike. Watch games from several years ago and you'll see that a hitter had to have much more of a swing intent before it was a strike. There might literally have been half as many check swing strikes as today.
I think the challenge system is stupid. It's MLB saying "we want to make sure 1 pitch every at bat is correct". On average each at bat is 5 pitches, so MLB wants to get 20% of pitches correct. The rest of the pitches are based on the umpires version of the strike zone that is invisible. If every umpire sees the strike zone differently, which they do, challenging one pitch is a waste.
Sports can evolve to the point that they are no longer as interesting. I don't like watching tennis anymore because there's less volleying and fewer rallies. I loved watching McEnroe vs Borg, I don't care for today's game with highly strung rackets and more speed, and fewer rallies.
I see what you're saying about moving the mound back, but that's definitely the way to go. It effectively makes the zone smaller, gives hitters more time to read breaking balls, and disincentivizes chasing velo
but still, breaking balls would be more valuable as there would be less downside with the change than to fastballs, which would probably further increase the number of TJs, which the league now wants to find a solution to limit.
Throwing hard is part of the game for some. It essentially makes players like Aroldis Chapman nowhere near as useful if that happens. Every pitcher is different, and I think where the mound is rn is perfect for every type.
Pitchers have worked on corners. Movement on the fastball is the new wrinkle. Hitters love in Iron Mike tunnels and not live pitching. Teams should hire some local arms to throw BP. To qualify they must have 88+ faoursemer,decent 2 seam and slider/cutter. Live BP thrown from 60 feet will get the hitters timing down. That's my 2 cents worth . Keep up the inside info feed.
Pitchers walk so many hitters already and making the zone smaller will change how all future stats are looked at.. I say just move the mound down another half inch-1 inch and see if that helps.
I don’t think the walk stats thing is much of a concern in that way, because the zone has changed like crazy in the last 20 years, if not “officially.” Just watch some of the Maddux games.
I mean the new rules have helped offense I feel like even despite the fact the leagues batting average has gone down. It’s tough to help hitters out cause it’s so difficult to do
before pitch counts were this highly regimented thing, pitchers had to worry about longevity. now they throw crazy elbow-shredding shit that wouldn't have been a wise choice in the past.
Yeah I disagree. After the removal of the infield shift, hitters are prioritising contact over power. Less priority in launch angles. Which is why BA is up and HR are down. We've also seen teams (like Toronto) make their stadium tougher to hit HR in.
Baseball has always been a statistician’s wet dream. Anyone who has ever kept score (I learned to do so in the 1970s) can go back and completely recreate the action. Also, when Trevor described stolen base decisions the same way a backgammon player calculates equity, he demonstrated my point.
On top of bringing in the ABS challenge system, I think we should seriously consider awarding walks after 3 balls instead of 4. Hitters are at a disadvantage in the majority of counts. If the pitching is as good as everyone says it is, then we shouldn't be giving the pitcher the advantage of an extra ball.
I theorize the vitriole over analytics is that people don't understand them or why they're used. I feel like a lot of these people have also not watched a lot of baseball since the steroid era.
The tag should read “failed starter and former gas can reliever who spent his career winning games for the opposing team thinks MLB pitching is too good. 😂.” the thumbnail could be the iconic pose of him watching a HR leave the yard. Yes the crying emoji needs to be there
you know analytics and baseball is such an overthinking sport when we care about 4ft less distance travel on an average ball, strikeout rate being 0.5% less. these numbers mean nothing over a 1 year period. we need to stop overthinking the rules, and we need to stop changing things. go back to 2018 rules and dont change the baseball or mound at all from now. dont bring in the ABS system (because the zone is literally smaller now than ever before and we are complaining over literal centimeters off the edge instead of hitting the ball)
I'm making this comment 3 minutes into the video: -My theory is that all of the teams are so damn focused on teaching their hitters to uppercut and hit homeruns that singles have become a dying art. Sure, you get the occasional guy like Arraez or Kwan but most hitters seem to be thinking homerun and now that the ball is not traveling as well as it has in the past, those shots are basic flyouts thus cutting down on hits/offense. -It would be interesting to see how many total outs have been recorded this year and how many or those were flyouts. I bet the numbers are way up from what used to be the norm. -I miss the days of 'see the ball, hit the ball'.
I'd bet if this were easily tallied you wouldn't see more "uppercut swings" now than you did 20 years ago. Like Trevor said, teams and players are just trying to hit the ball hard. That results in more homeruns, but the *approach* isn't to hit homeruns - it's to hit the ball hard. Which has been the philosophy in baseball since at least Ted Williams. Since 2015 the % of flyball outs of total outs has increased by ~0.2% per year
@@Benisuber1 I did not know that. Thanks for the info... The reason I said this is that so many players who have been interviewed over the last few years have all talked about developing an uppercut swing. This is what coaches teach now. Unfortunately, I've seen it at all levels. The days of line drives up the middle seems to have disappeared.
0:57
Thank you!
Analytics have always been in the sport. High BA guys hit in the top of the order in the 1800s, we just have advanced analytics and better math as you pointed out. I'm glad you made the distinction because it seems like "analytics" get scape-goated by the old heads too much.
K's and HRs are so cliche anymore. I enjoy the strategic side of the game. SBs, hit and run, the squeeze play, solid situational hitting. That's the style I love. As far as the strikezone goes, the majority of the ball should be in the zone to be called a strike. That's assuming the zone doesn't change and robot umps are used.
I was at the Hall of Fame museum back in the 90's looking at that mosaic of Ted Williams batting avg in different zones and wondered if he had an A, B, and C Swing. Love your take on analytics. "We have math now..." Love it.
Pitching back then was nowhere near as good. It's a lot harder to hit now and there isn't time to decide if you want to use your A, B, or C swing. You just gotta go off your instinctive swing
The giants haven’t had a 30 home run hitter since Barry bonds. They have 3 World Series in that time. Pitching matters so much Trevor.
...and we're currently in the toilet because we can't seem to keep pitchers healthy. That, and I'm convinced that Blake Snell is secretly on the Dodgers' payroll...
This has everything to do with their ballpark, though. Park factors matter, too
the fuck are you on about, SF situation is because of the stadium
@@madxD144 I think both parts are true, they haven’t had a 30 Homerun hitter in years because of the park, but they also were able to win three World Series because of their pitching
Actually, I love your idea of ABS as well as a smaller strike zone. This feels like a balanced change. You allow the pitcher to keep their arsenals while also forcing them to have solid command of their pitches. It would also give hitters a better chance at getting contact. I know dudes like Pat Hoberg are doing well with umping, but ABS would ensure 100% fairness which is exactly what the strike zone needs to be. Obviously, hitters have different stances, and the zone increases or decreases in size with each hitter but if we figured out ABS, I think the game would become way more exciting. incredibly lethal pitchers would become that much scarier and the duel itself would become much more interesting for both sides.
That would put things more to talent. Make it a do better for each side.
I really hope Nick Allen hears what you had to say about what his approach should be at the plate. If he does what you said and focus on not striking out and smacking singles like Altuve does and Ichiro did he could be a good defensive shortstop, and would make a great utility infielder. I've been rooting for Allen since I first saw his electric defense in the bigs.
Bring back the "TRASHCAN" so hitters will know what the pitch is for all the teams except the Astros.
Crazy, pitchers were exp at that time cheating for years. Hitters cheat every one flips out. Also ur dumb af if you think the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox were the only teams doing that. They all were. Exp the dodgers that year. Look at the year the dodgers had. Most of the guys like a lot of the Astros had the best year of there career and a lot of them have not even come close to those numbers again.
It’s actually insane how good defenses have gotten with shifting and the ability to get outs
Wild idea here Trev, why don't the umpires just call strikes correctly then? A ball, 2 balls off the corner should NEVER be a strike. (*wait for the "too close to take" comments)
I'll give umps a pass on high/low since the batter dictates the height of the zone. Hitting is hard enough as it is, but having to cover 2 balls off the plate makes it impossible with everyone throwing 95+ now.
I will add that the current philosophy of hitting "launch angle and exit velocity" is also contributing to the poor overall hitting stats league-wide. Everyone is essentially trying to be an all or nothing power hitter now, with the few Arraez-type outliers that still actually HIT.
Inconsistent strike zone + higher velocity pitches + obsession with launch angle/exit velocity = poor hitting numbers
Get behind the plate and see how hard it is to call balls and strikes. In the NCAA, at least when i played, there was a portion of the preseason where coaches couldn't be on the field and we had to ump the games ourselves. As a pitcher, i felt i knew the strike zone, and as someone who was also a decent hitter, i felt i would have a great time back there...nope! I couldn't call anything, with great certainty, that wasn't down main Street.
And as far as launch angle/exit velo discourse goes, did you watch the video? Trev explains the thinking behind the concepts in this video perfectly
ABS friend ABS
If the zone is smaller it'll be easier to call so
I agree that MLB needs to institute the challenge system. Don't change or move the mound! Interesting stats, Trevor. Thanks for the conversation!
I know he's a freaking beast, but if they made any more changes to pitching/fielding Judge would be even more insane. He's arguably having a better year than he did in 2022. In 82 games he has 64 runs, 91 hits, 23 doubles (had 28 in '22), 1 3b (0 in '22), 30 HR, 79 RBI, .310 avg (.311 in '22), .431 OBP (.425 in '22), .701 SLG (.686 in '22) with an OPS of 1.131 (1.111 in '22). If he stays healthy I fully expect him to get to 60 HR and 130+ RBI again. Shrink the strikezone on him and oh boy, he might hit .330 with less than 150 Ks, 120-130 walks, 60-70 HRs and 150 RBI every year.
His HRs have an asterisk since he gets to hit at Yankee stadium. Obv he's able to take advantage of it which is good on him, but still gives him 5-10 extra HRs.
@@Heybrotruthhurts 1st off, Judge is a righty...it's Lefties that get the Yankee Stadium "short porch". Not to mention the fact that his Home-Away HR splits are IN FAVOR OF AWAY...he has 15 HR's at home and 17 on the road. Of all his HR's only 6 have been Opposite field this year, with 11 being pulled to left field and 15 going to center. So your entire comment is dumb and irrelevant. Left Center is 399 in Yankee Stadium with Center being 408. FOH
One easier thing MLB could do to increase offense is to stop calling a check swing so close. It wasn't always this way that check swing was almost always a strike. Watch games from several years ago and you'll see that a hitter had to have much more of a swing intent before it was a strike. There might literally have been half as many check swing strikes as today.
Fr like its obvious if a swing is there but they are calling middle swings so often
Check swings are a judgement call and up to interpretation by the umpire who calls it.
I think the challenge system is stupid. It's MLB saying "we want to make sure 1 pitch every at bat is correct". On average each at bat is 5 pitches, so MLB wants to get 20% of pitches correct. The rest of the pitches are based on the umpires version of the strike zone that is invisible. If every umpire sees the strike zone differently, which they do, challenging one pitch is a waste.
Could you do a video about Vertical Approach Angle? I’d love to experiment with trying to deliver a Shota esque FB
Sports can evolve to the point that they are no longer as interesting. I don't like watching tennis anymore because there's less volleying and fewer rallies. I loved watching McEnroe vs Borg, I don't care for today's game with highly strung rackets and more speed, and fewer rallies.
You and jm baseball are the best baseball content out there. Love your insight!
CloseCallSports is pretty awesome as well!
Could the better defense/shading come from fielders having pitchcom and having a better jump on a pitch by pitch basis?
Is that… is that a corduroy O’s cap? That is, AWESOME!!! I’m an O’s fan and need to know where to get that. Could you share?
Having the WBC right before the season in 23', helped a lot in getting hitters off to hot starts that year. It was like spring training on steroids!
Love the videos trev
I see what you're saying about moving the mound back, but that's definitely the way to go. It effectively makes the zone smaller, gives hitters more time to read breaking balls, and disincentivizes chasing velo
but still, breaking balls would be more valuable as there would be less downside with the change than to fastballs, which would probably further increase the number of TJs, which the league now wants to find a solution to limit.
When they tried it in the Atlantic League a few years back strike outs actually increased. The extra break turned out to be harder to hit.
Throwing hard is part of the game for some. It essentially makes players like Aroldis Chapman nowhere near as useful if that happens. Every pitcher is different, and I think where the mound is rn is perfect for every type.
@@vojtechnovacek7776if you think the pitches on pitchingninja are crazy it'll prob be even more
Pitchers have worked on corners. Movement on the fastball is the new wrinkle. Hitters love in Iron Mike tunnels and not live pitching. Teams should hire some local arms to throw BP. To qualify they must have 88+ faoursemer,decent 2 seam and slider/cutter. Live BP thrown from 60 feet will get the hitters timing down. That's my 2 cents worth . Keep up the inside info feed.
now this is a video. you're spot on in this trevor
Pitchers walk so many hitters already and making the zone smaller will change how all future stats are looked at.. I say just move the mound down another half inch-1 inch and see if that helps.
I don’t think the walk stats thing is much of a concern in that way, because the zone has changed like crazy in the last 20 years, if not “officially.” Just watch some of the Maddux games.
I mean the new rules have helped offense I feel like even despite the fact the leagues batting average has gone down. It’s tough to help hitters out cause it’s so difficult to do
When pitchers today can hit black every other pitch they need to make it smaller
I agree, Rose would have totally been using that Ipad to place bets.
before pitch counts were this highly regimented thing, pitchers had to worry about longevity. now they throw crazy elbow-shredding shit that wouldn't have been a wise choice in the past.
Only suggestion you gave I honestly agree with is challenging the strike zone.
The Mariners are singlehandedly trying to bring the strikeout rate up
I will bury my head in the sand and blame the analytics.
There was no talk of making the strike zone bigger for pitchers when the 'rood bois were selling mega tickets. MLB can sniff my nads.
Oh my LAWWWD that hat is AWESOME
Yeah I disagree. After the removal of the infield shift, hitters are prioritising contact over power. Less priority in launch angles. Which is why BA is up and HR are down. We've also seen teams (like Toronto) make their stadium tougher to hit HR in.
he says this in the video. you agree with him
Baseball has always been a statistician’s wet dream. Anyone who has ever kept score (I learned to do so in the 1970s) can go back and completely recreate the action.
Also, when Trevor described stolen base decisions the same way a backgammon player calculates equity, he demonstrated my point.
People play backgammon?
@@soapsatellite - Believe it or not, yes, and at a very high level. It’s being kept alive in Flint, MI of all places.
@@RobKandell That's unexpected. Why Flint tho?
O's hat is fire
Not mentioning rafaela about nasty defenders with crazy web gems was a miss
On top of bringing in the ABS challenge system, I think we should seriously consider awarding walks after 3 balls instead of 4. Hitters are at a disadvantage in the majority of counts. If the pitching is as good as everyone says it is, then we shouldn't be giving the pitcher the advantage of an extra ball.
I dunno, sounds like what the Mariners are doin' 3 years in a row
No DO NOT shrink the zone
oh man i hope gerrit cole throws a hissy fit if this happens
I had no clue Trevor was so into analytics
boy howdy i sure do love me some focus fuel. mmmmhmmmm. 😋
I theorize the vitriole over analytics is that people don't understand them or why they're used. I feel like a lot of these people have also not watched a lot of baseball since the steroid era.
Make Believe Stats are useless. Ball over wall = 1 Hr
@jimbob9828 yup, and the linear weight for that this year is 2.067. That's not made up, that's based off the value of a HR on the 24 base out states.
2019 = B O M B A S S Q U A D
Fun year. I mean, you know. You were there.
Ozuna, judge, henderson, harper, and a few more guys may hit 50 homers. I dont rly see the decline at all.
I mean i wont deny “overall stats” but a few guys are having historic seasons. Josh friggen naylor has like 20 and 60 rn
MLB is slowly inching towards pitching machines.
The tag should read “failed starter and former gas can reliever who spent his career winning games for the opposing team thinks MLB pitching is too good. 😂.” the thumbnail could be the iconic pose of him watching a HR leave the yard. Yes the crying emoji needs to be there
Next year, they’re having all MLB players live in favelas during the season.
Or we could just let the teams figure out how to be better?
Bro is messed up Trevor Bauer
you know analytics and baseball is such an overthinking sport when we care about 4ft less distance travel on an average ball, strikeout rate being 0.5% less. these numbers mean nothing over a 1 year period. we need to stop overthinking the rules, and we need to stop changing things.
go back to 2018 rules and dont change the baseball or mound at all from now. dont bring in the ABS system (because the zone is literally smaller now than ever before and we are complaining over literal centimeters off the edge instead of hitting the ball)
I'm making this comment 3 minutes into the video:
-My theory is that all of the teams are so damn focused on teaching their hitters to uppercut and hit homeruns that singles have become a dying art. Sure, you get the occasional guy like Arraez or Kwan but most hitters seem to be thinking homerun and now that the ball is not traveling as well as it has in the past, those shots are basic flyouts thus cutting down on hits/offense.
-It would be interesting to see how many total outs have been recorded this year and how many or those were flyouts. I bet the numbers are way up from what used to be the norm.
-I miss the days of 'see the ball, hit the ball'.
I'd bet if this were easily tallied you wouldn't see more "uppercut swings" now than you did 20 years ago.
Like Trevor said, teams and players are just trying to hit the ball hard. That results in more homeruns, but the *approach* isn't to hit homeruns - it's to hit the ball hard. Which has been the philosophy in baseball since at least Ted Williams.
Since 2015 the % of flyball outs of total outs has increased by ~0.2% per year
@@Benisuber1 I did not know that. Thanks for the info...
The reason I said this is that so many players who have been interviewed over the last few years have all talked about developing an uppercut swing. This is what coaches teach now. Unfortunately, I've seen it at all levels. The days of line drives up the middle seems to have disappeared.
@@myplane150 A couple of anecdotes isn't evidence, btw.
Line drive rates have gone up since 2015.
bring back steroids 🤷🏻♂️
It would suck not hearing the crack of wood, but bring BBCOR to MLB if you want to juice the offense more. Or allow corked bats
Offense would indeed go up… as would the chances someone gets crushed by a ball hit 135 mph by Stanton.
They should stop allowing players to bring notepads in the field, the game is the test no cheat sheets.
Maybe it is the pitch clock🤔
First
second 😯
821 views in 55 minutes bro fell off
A pitcher advocating to shrink the strike zone? That’s heresy! Don’t forget where you came from, son!
I hate what I’ve become. It’s a tragedy.
That said, I love that I don’t have to deal with this crap anymore. Lol.