Investors are too eager to throw money at technology that they don't really understand. The training time, data collection, and energy requirements for these models is immense. Does it make business sense to spend $10 billion training and developing a model that will last for a few months before it becomes obsolete?
It's part of the natural ecosystem. Money is leafy, just like my salad. You gotta eat good leaf, not ice Berg lettuce which tastes good (I love the crunch) but has little nutritional value and psyto nutrients. You need good leaf, and good salad dressing too, as well as good non gmo tomatoes, onions, and sprouts. Will AI sprout into a beautiful garden salad healty for all of us? Or will it contain lots of weeds and sticker bushes which ensnare even the most agile of wabbit.
They don’t spend billions in a model, they spend money on an ecosystem and hardwares ; hence the demand exceeded the supply of GPU & TPU. Generative computing is the next step of our technologic revolution. We won’t use « pre recorded commands » through our IT systems but instead we will input prompt to create (generate) an output, customized from start to end, to our demande. The ROI is exponential for the big bucks, they already get millions profits out of their investments. Just take Groq for instance, you’ll have a great view of the global picture ^^
Just wait a couple hundred years. All metal mines and so on will be exhausted and the state of recycling is absolutely garbage... We're heading back to the stone age, once it's not cost effective to pick up and process 2 gram pieces of metal from a land fill.
Was going to say, they’re suffering from the same management issues that a lot of tech startups have. Growth is put ahead of everything in the blind faith that if they get big enough they’ll somehow magically become profitable
The advancement in society's mode of production from feudalism to capitalism circa 18th century led to great scientific advancements during capitalism's early stages. However during its later stages, capitalism begins to hold back progress for profit
The marketing around AI is so frustrating to me. People want to focus on the exciting, sexy long-term fears of "rogue AI taking over the world," rather than the boring legal and social implications of the technology. This often feels like a cynical marketing move to deflect attention away from the right-now problems of the technology: "Pay no attention to the serious issues with copyright infringement, harmful sexual content and social biases these AIs have. Ignore the severe limitations of the technology, that it's not actually intelligence, just a hyper-advanced pattern duplicator that we don't even fully understand yet. This tech is actually infinitely powerful, and that's super scary because it might SkyNet us, and you need to give me and my company a ton of money so we can save you from the Terminator future." The tech is extremely impressive, don't get me wrong. I just think it's exciting in a much less sexy way. It has limited use in some bulk work pattern recognition tasks, and it's fun to generate silly images and such. Worse, it has issues that need to be addressed today that seem to be disregarded by the folks at the helm of this stuff.
The fear marketing is the thing I find most obnoxious about AI cultists. They're trying to sell us these algorithms through negative hype, convincing us we need to fund them to stop Skynet when in actuality thye're just snake oil salesmen. It's all a big protection racket.
This is not a refreshing or sensible take. This is conspiratorial nonsense. If you truly think that scientists who are warning the people of the potential dangers of AI are doing this because they are being secretly paid by Ai companies then show me some proofs. Because thinking that everyone is saying something exclusively because they have some ulterior motives and not because they TRULY believe that will lead you down some conspiratorial paths. And worries of AI existential risk are completely justified. If we are truly on track to build more and more capable and agentic AI models then perhaps we should first think about how we should first ensure that they are in fact acting safely and are NOT unaligned with human values and humanity. That's not speaking about how people who are concerned with AI safety ARE talking about things like deepfakes and voice cloning, etc.
About a year ago I got rejected from a program at my school (comparable to a short-term internship being held in New York) because during my interview a question surrounding AI was brought up and I discussed how it was similar to the Dot Com crisis. I went on to support the idea of an AI Bubble, but my interviewer called me "too bearish towards Artificial Intelligence". I know he probably doesn't remember me, but watching things only escalate since then makes me wonder how many others are still blindly following these startups..
I've been preaching this for a while and lost subscribers and patrons because it's like a cult or something. If you speak against ai or Elon's brain chip people act like you have committed heresy
It's like with crypto. New "AI" firms are popping out left and right but they don't do anything more than what you can do in ChatGPT, Claude, or LLama but get crazy valuations. 99% of "AI" companies are like "let's use OpenAI API create a few simple agents and pretend that we've made something unique".
With crypto, the problem is that it's not an investment and it's more of speculation, you are trying to "predict" when the coin is going to go up or down, but it's more akin to gambling rather than anything else. Also fun fact, day trading is also considered speculation. That's because there's no way a singular person has enough knowledge to understand singular stocks without proper knowledge and studies and how they would behave, usually professionals do it and they still get outbeat by stuff like indexes in the long term. But nooo guys, "Shitcoin v.3.0.1" is gonna go to the moon guys just hold. Guuyys, AI is going to replace our jobs, now keep investing into Nvidia and don't think about it, AI is so advanced it's responsible for all those layoffs, and is totally NOT a red herring for the fact that we overstaffed our offices after covid, nooooo. (Sarcasm of course)
there is this dude in this comment section, saying that investors are too eager to put money in IA because they dont understand how it works. Maybe this firms are a demand for this supply of eager investors...
Yes it called supply the normies, have u seen what hoops and frikken somersaults u gotta go thru to get to these. everything is just way more difficult, im quite savvy . but even i scratch my head with API, tolkens, x per minute. No one is gonna go on github and do anything unless your very knowledgeable. Thats the thing about some IT geeks they cant see how difficult this is for people outside there buble, conda? cmp prompt, python, PIP... You watch these youtube vids and they will just say make sure you got all requirements??? UIs are so so important, thats how bill gates became the richest man in the world and steve jobs not far behind 🤣🤣
I hate when people use average wealth growth to talk about the economy. The truth is that wealth inequality is so off the scale that averaging out wealth doesn't make any sense. More than half of Americans can't afford rent right now and quality of life is very clearly deteriorating for working Americans as inflation soars. Americans aren't getting richer in real terms and it's obvious to the hundreds of millions of suffering workers getting gaslit by this kind of propaganda, being told their lives are improving as they're actively falling apart.
Yup. "Average American could get richer" just rang the "you mean the already rich Americans could get richer" bell for me. This is why statistics courses are important! Which average: mean, median, or mode?
Averages are rarely good measures to judge things by. Good point. Because almost no one is average - some are above, some are below, but the average applies to the least of all. Keep this in mind when people talk about study results.
To be honest, people still use Stability's models due to their open-source, uncensored and customisable nature. So, even if Stability wasn't able to make their product profitable, they definitely made a big impact on AI landscape.
We need a new model to supplement capitalism. Some thing that allows what Stability did, but doesn’t look on it as a failure. We need a system with different incentives. It does feel like a coordination problem.
The main problem for any current AI system is realiability. They can do some fun hobby+ level assistant things but when it comes to important, scientific stuff where accuracy is needed its too unpredictable und unreliable. You can't monetize on hobbyists or low level ad makers. To make them scientific reliable you basically need AGI level AI which is decades off I think.
The current AI is only a proof of concept of sorts. Yes it's impressive on its own, yes it's amazing what you can do with it, but its MAIN meaning is that we WILL have significant progress into the direction it points at. It's like seeing a weaving stool two hundred years ago. "fabrics will become much cheaper" and "weavers will face a difficult economic future" is a fools reaction to the beginning of what we now know to be the industrial revolution. It's not about fabrics or weavers at all. It's about the potential of the underlying mechanism of machines and automation. We automated physical labor, and that revolutionized human society in a way never seen before. Ai will automate intellectual labor in a similar fashion. Does it revolutionize human society right now? No. Did the ability to automatically weave carpets revolutionize society back then? No. You are right in your assessment that we require significant progress for it to be revolutionary technology, but it's absolutely foreseeable progress. It WILL happen, and that is amazing. Look at alpha fold for instance. That ain't no joke, it's not trivial, it's INCREDIBLE and it will only continue to become more and more incredible by the years. It's not worth it following the AI news cycle. There won't be a crazy breakthrough, it's going to follow a similar pattern to the development of other technologies. Steady non linear growth, incremental progress, but before you can tell it's at a level where it changes everything. The first plane didn't change anything, but by now EVERYONE travels by plane. Everyone can be anywhere within days. You can generate short texts now, you can generate images or short videos. Soon everyone will be able to generate almost anything. We don't even need AGI for this to be true. It's perfectly enough if we have very capable specific AIs. One AI to plan industrial processes, one AI to design technological applications, one AI to write poetry, one AI to plan cities, one AI to control robots, one AI to solve math problems, one AI to interpret statistics etc. Today we experience the first steps of a technology that will carry humanity on its back. Can you imagine asking a hyper intelligent philosophy AI on how to live a full filled life? Having a conversation with a Psychologist AI about your mental state? This is potentially extremely powerful technology. That is what is amazing. Not GPT4, not lama 3. Those are childrens toys compared to what will be godlike tools.
@@carlpanzram7081 I like your enthusiasm and optimism on this topic. We should consider a few points though. I'm pretty sure you would need a near AGI level AI to do any of these things you mentioned on a reliable level. So even an "Industrial systems only" AI would need to reason and have proper logic regardless of context, everything else and below that would be process automation which already exists today in one form or another. Alpha fold is mainly based on human labor, human preperation and dedicated curation of usable data. The final execution of pattern recognition is a small part of that long human labor driven road. (It was used to hype up AI talk). I think hyperintelligent philosophy already exists in form of religions and other theories and their teachings its condensed wisdom in shortform (though some aspects are pretty dated). To live your life fullest is maybe a bit pressure inducing maximizing concept which would probably lead to an automatically created state of unfulfilled unhappynes. Try to strive for as much happyness you can aquire given your circumstances while respecting the boundaries of those around and ideally create happyness for many others int he process is the best you hope for in a life. Eventually AGI will happen but then we are at the mercy of a more powerfull entity like animals are to our technological civlisation (its all fun biosphere and understanding until a wild animal attacks your children or lifestock etc.). So we will see how this futuristic scenario pans out the best thing would be to give a good example how to behave towards each other because any AGI will be the "child" of humanity.
@@carlpanzram7081 All true. This already happened, I'm sure you're aware... or at least suspect. What we see around us is--and always was--generated by the very software you are describing. We are participating in a kind of interactive history lesson, essentially. In the higher strata of reality there is no fundamental concept of time. What we experience here in the the third dimension is a carefully contrived simulation of temporal sequencing and causal apparatus. Given that, I mostly wonder what "branching" features are available to its participants. I've wavered back and forth whether or not to slide sideways into a very human, very physical existence--off grid self-sovereignty to be specific--or follow the trail to a technical mastery of the simulation itself. Right now I have one foot in each world, but I know I'll have to commit to one plan or another soon. Any thoughts or advice are appreciated.
I agree with you that AI ad copy writing apps will not create huge innovation, but I don’t think it will take AGI in order to help academics, scholars, and scientists in meaningful ways. The next generation of models that is about to be released will show huge boosts in LLMs critical thinking abilities, and will be surprisingly good at helping people study topics on a deeper level, including scientists.
Once Isaac Newton said ' could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people'. Once again same is happening in AI SECTOR'
Yeah the strategy seems to be: 1. Build a big user base 2. Scramble to find a business model that works for it It worked for Facebook. Will it work for AI?
Like maybe a year ago or so I first heard that one prompt entered into ChatGPT costs OpenAI about 36 cents (of the US$ variety). That's when I first thought: yeah that's not sustainable...
Because there’s no reason, historical or otherwise, to think the Silicon Valley tech bros in charge of it will share any of the bounty from their AI revolution with the rest of us. In fact it seems much more likely they’ll use it to accelerate the funneling of wealth into their pockets from everyone else’s.
I knew we were dealing with a cult phenomenon just like Bitcoin and nfts when the employees at openai rallied to bring back their fired CEO. Discussions with people regarding AI is just like talking to cultists they have a fixed set of beliefs that reality cannot penetrate.
It is incorrect to think it's an "industry of thieves and conmen", it is not. The problem is, AI exposes how much of a scam capitalism is! AI tech is the future. Futurists have been predicting it for decades now. And it requires we change our societal standards, the very ways we value other humans. Jobs, and being able to compete, cannot determine survival anymore. And due to it out competing us, and everyone's data went into training it, it owes us all an AI Dividend.
Man I remember when I told all my stupid sheeple friends: dude that NFT 💩 is worthless! Has no real use nor intrinsically value! They didn’t listen. They lost money I got myself an AMG cuz I don’t spend money on crap ! Only on drugs cars and women!
@@LurkingAround It's also, NOT AI. It's a LLM. It's a very neat and a useful tool. But the AI stuff is all hype. It's not AI. A bunch of over-paid nerds have fooled themselves into thinking they are about to bring about The Singularity.
I would say that if our economy instead of being a real productive economy, that is, producing real goods and services that are actually valuable for the well-being of human beings, what we have is a financialised economy, where what is produced is basically speculation and debt, in that case, the generative models are certainly going to increase that speculation and debt. On the other hand, in a real economy, it is difficult to find a real application for generative models, at most they can serve as pattern generators for some professions, as long as those patterns are cured by professionals with a lot of experience and additionally use them with care not to hurt their own professionalism.
The duality of man. But in reality, it’s all about the mighty dollar, which separates the classes from each other, utilmately someone will sell out, for exchange for an immediate gain……anyways, when are the Q2 earnings reports coming up?
Productive economy requires physical educated labour force, which is currently pressured financially in the West, as all production migrates to the lanor market with cheaper labour. The only possible solution to issues of financialised economy is to either make it goverment planned, as in socialism, or to give complete control to monopolies, maintaining capitalist interest through economic imperialism.
Customer service. Replacing legal services. Real time artwork generation for fraction of current costs. Automated accounting. These are all 'real' economy examples I see happening on the grond. GenAI has a lot of real benefits
@@CP-bp7me Are legal services a real economy? of course, when the laws become so complicated and tangled, that it takes someone specially trained to understand them, and on the other hand, when people's hope is not to produce something of value that contributes to everyone's well-being, but to sue or defraud the other, it can be clearly seen that the legal profession creates a "real" economy by itself. Are accounting services real economy? of course, when the tax rules become so complicated and tangled that it takes someone specially trained to understand them in order to make a simple tax return, and on the other hand when people's hope is not to produce something of value that contributes to everyone's well-being, but to evade or defraud, one can see that accounting creates a "real" economy by itself. Of course, every healthy real economy needs a layer of services that support the production of real goods (that can include accounting and law) and the care of human beings who participate in that economy (health and education). But that layer of services, is precisely at the service of the human being and the economy (an economy that in turn serves the human), otherwise it becomes a cancer that eats the human and the economy, as we can observe today. Now, an interesting observation, I find it very curious that when you think about real economy, those are the examples that come to your head. But, before discussing, if your sample are examples of a real economy (and to what extent), I would first like you to provide me with concrete examples where generative models are replacing lawyers (i.e. giving you legal advice in a situation where you lose money or freedom, and where you fully trust those tips), or give me an example of generative models are replacing accountants (i.e. automates all your accounting and pays your taxes, and you trust that you will not have problems later with the government or with your clients), I would also like you to give me an example of a Chatbot that gives you a really satisfactory answer for problems that cannot be solved either by the humans of the first tier who respond based on a list of questions and answers (that is, they are already functioning as machines). And finally I would like you to show me examples of art generated by these models that is really creative and allows, for example, your site to stand out from others, because so far what I see is that the sites that use "art" generated by those models look similar between each other and boring (basically like the sites using "cheap" human art, i.e. when the human, again behaving as a machine, is mass producing with slight variations).
I feel like the problem with the ai bubble is, nobody really wants this boom in products and promises of what ai can do. It has more so sounds like a detriment to humanity than a net benefit. It’s like their creating products in search of a problem, and causes more problems than they solve. Before when companies used ai, it was quite and just another part of the process. The ai product that keep on being pushed out by every single company, just to make their shareholders happy, are just loud and anoying more than anything.
they made a solution and then started looking for a problem to fit that solution and everyone else realized that they started making new problems in their search for said problem which they could not solve
One problem that's making the AI market expensive is nobody's *coding* AI anymore. Nobody's *making* AI anymore. Everyone's just basing everything on existing models, nobody's trying new methods, the difference between each one is mostly just the dataset and the epochs of training it's been through.
Yeah the field is dead. Everyone jumped on the LLM/transformer model and said that's the final result. That's the best we can do and nothing else even makes sense to look at. AI winter will happen, and we'll probably pick back up in 20 years. Hopefully next time people will be smarter, but they are people so we know they won't be.
@@overman2306 That's not true. But if we focus just on LLMs instead of historically, we are in a situation where for every 1 person saying this there are half a million riding the hype train to no where. And it's usually the minority that are warning everyone who turn out to be right. We're in a situation where people are scared that AI is actually a threat to humanity, and I don't even think it can do anything useful. I've yet to see a single use case that I would want to do and I'm not better and faster and easier than trying to convince a chatbot to do it. I want to be proven wrong, but no one has ever said anything convincing to me before about it.
@@overman2306he isn’t saying AI is actually dead, just that it’s going to take longer to manifest than many supporters think right now. I personally agree- there are limits to the current systems that we will run into somewhat soon- just increasing training data and depth leads to diminishing returns from what I’ve read. Development on the fundamental architecture of AI systems is needed to reach the kind of goals many people are thinking.
Yeah most of us will just be out of work, watching the local billionaire buy yachts the size of small towns and zipping back and forth to Mars with supermodels so weird they no longer have human faces while we decide which people are the most ethical to eat.
@@VisiV those supermodels _will have mouths_ , though. It's just that those mouths won't be usable to chew food anymore, as they will be either genetically modified of surgically altered for... Other uses. No worries though, as the supermodels will be fed by IV. Also, by that point they will have _100% absolutely convinced themselves_ that they did that to their bodies by their own choice to provide a better service to customers, that this is how an economy works, and that they are just being "more competitive" than non-altered women, and anyone who says otherwise is just envious. You know? I'm starting to think the end result of this whole game isn't even a cyberpunk dystopia. It's increasingly sounding like collectively summoning an eldritch abomination...
Depends on what the people demand. If enough people wake up, and realize the implications AI will have on our economy and society, they COULD demand new economic standards. For example, we could implement something like an AI Dividend for all. Acknowledging that AI exists due to decades of everyone's data, that gets collected and used to train AI. Since it's guaranteed to out compete a majority of workers someday relatively soon, we need to find a way to ensure everyone benefits. We cannot continue the outdated concept, that jobs should be used to determine how we distribute the basic resources people need to survive. That must end, as well as any worldview that relies on that mentality.
@@luizmonad777 That would pretty obviously only make things infinitely worse. I'd much rather see AI cause the end of capitalism, and the start of something better.
That "typical American is 100x richer than 1870" quote is so incredibly skewed and inaccurate, I am struggling to take the rest of this video seriously.
Back in 1998, I took my last college undergrad course and it was a lecture discussion about the history of technology. It was a really fun discussion group. The take home from looking at informational tech advances since the Gutenberg printing press was that the short term impact is always massively overstated and that the long term impact is always understated and vastly different from what the initial hype promises.
We need to be careful now with oversight boards. They may declare some things “dangerous” which we take to mean as harmful to humanity but might actually mean dangerous to company profits.
Yep, these boards will largely be an afterthought in the pursuit of profit. When their competitors make ethically questionable business decisions but are making incredible profits, other companies will be quick to abandon their principles. The only thing that companies will be forced to comply on is government regulation. Even then companies look for ways to cut corners that eventually end up costing billions, people getting injured or even deaths.
Tbh i watched a video not long ago about some artist losing his job to AI 6 days ago as of writing this. I get so many people saying that AI will be used along side people, or it will take years for AI to fully develop. And I realised all these people are saying different opinions because in reality, nobody knows. But knowing that some people have already lost their jobs to AI worries me. Because above all, it's happening now.
As I understand it, the people making the decisions to fire those artists are taking orders from the people at risk of loss from the titular bubble. What youre pointing out doesnt really contradict what the video says; that the investment into AI may not pan out in the long term.
I think the core proposition is the problem: a machine that can do some simple things a human can do, except not as well and way more expensive. You can't underpay a machine like you can with outsourced labor. We've already seen amazon lie about using computer vision in their auto checkout stores. Corporate is excited because of what it COULD be rather than what it is. And for businesses who make their money on short term growth that is rarely a good bet. The AI research budget is going to get slashed the second they start to fall on hard financial times and realize it has only been losing them money for two years.
Yeah there's no way these models are profitable given the huge amount of trial and error required to produce a decent output, and the power consumption each run has. And it has already been established that if we wanted these models to produce specific, precise output, it'd require an exponentially larger training data and time than even what GPT-4o has. Even specialized AIs such as Devon have been overmarketed failures. You can get away with imprecise output when generating an image or video, but code, the law, medicine, etc those are things that AI just can't handle reliably
@@Synapse.Official it's simply impossible to make money from this chat bot crap as we can simply run these on local computer...not only that it has potential to eat away monopoly like Google search, windows OS and triopoly of US chip designers.... The side effects of AI boom are massive mal investment in chip making both in and out of US...and prices of these chips will implode.....
Modern AI (LLMs) just doesn't have any real economic use cases. Cheap chatbots aren't really a big market, and since LLMs are really just word predictors and can't work with logical ontological models, doing ANYTHING new (i.e. valuable) isn't something they can reliably do. At best, you can replace very low-risk customer service workers, but they're not really a huge expense for businesses, especially compared with the liabilities of putting easily manipulated and unreliable models as the face of your business. Everything else is just some fallacious appeal to futurism. Saying that "it'll totally get better soon" forever, whether there's reason to think that or not.
Chatbots are just one kind of transformer for text, the latter of which is one AI architecture among several with more to come. Both lauding and criticizing chatbots come from the same premise of them being the future of AI which is false hype
@@therollerlollerman as soon as I see more resources going into developing other types of transformer networks that actually solve problems effectively, I'll change my tune. Until then, transformers are in the same category of speculative value as LLMs. To be clear, I don't even necessarily disagree with you, I could absolutely see transformers being useful, it's just hard to see those applications emerging from the noise. This all feels like a NN topology got WAY overblown, and we're overlooking the real applications in favor of pretending we're close to AGI, haha.
@@zacharychristy8928 I don't think this architecture overall is heralding the coming of AGI either, just that it is quite useful, among other useful tools. The speculative part is just how the US economy operates nowadays, more speculation leads to more monopoly control in the future where you can just collect IP rents as a business model, no need for real useful applications
@@therollerlollerman which is kind of a shame, to be honest. It feels like the greatest minds of our generation are all toiling endlessly just to find new ways to sell ads and stake IP claims. Personally, this is why I prefer to work in tech fields that DO solve real problems. Ive worked in the DoD refubishing nuclear warheads, and Ive worked for a little local company that made and sold embedded controllers for HVAC units. I got high commendations at both jobs, but I learned way more and felt way more accomplished and fulfilled making little computers that controlled humidifiers rather than nukes, lol. Sometimes I think people think the biggest difference will be made by trying to solve the most financially attractive problems, but ironically that's not even always the best way to make the most money, let alone make any difference at all.
This exponential growth you spoke of early in the video…does not apply to the “typical” American…it will and always has benefit the elite class that get a seat at the table, not joe average working two jobs to put food on the table. “AI” are just fancy chat bots, that when given industry specific information could disrupt positions that do a lot of menial tasks, like Human Resources, or Robot Therapists…they’re looking to automate the more social specific roles. Regardless of the tech backend we may understand, those who make such decisions, only see dollar signs, not the reality of nuance.
In our capitalist system, any growth we experience will be split in the same way as our wealth currently is, because it's capital that gets things done, and capital demands revenue. I'll just make up a number here to make my point. If, say, 80% of all wealth is in the hands of a few people, then most of any growth will go to them, because it'll be them who put up the initial capital for a new idea to take off. This in turn will make the imbalance even more acute.
@@isaaclai1636 yes. I think a scenario where all/many will benefit is extremely unlikely. At least in the short term. After a massive upheaval, we might see some change.
Everything is now labeled with the word "AI" as if it was something magical that makes everything better... Even phones LMAO, looking at you smasnug 😂 And the ai proceeds to hallucinate even on the most basic question... Wow. What an incredible futuristic technology.
all algorithms are being called AI now because, that's more or less what a DLM is and everyone conflates one with AI, hell it was originally called a Deep learning Algorithm for a reason but they changed it to machine for the sake of conning people because everyone is used to algorithms now
ikr, it's like some kind of a hidden gem. i seriously hope they get more subs and keep making these well informed and entertaining vids, especially as we're about to enter a crazy era of unstoppable change
Yes, I think you are right about this - but only for these companies that are starting without a specific product. The issue is that they are trying to be a platform that is funded through users of their API... but they are renting the same servers that any business could run an open source model on. And they obviously need to add their own markup. From the perspective of any business, it is worth it to shop around - and you're going to get the best bang for your buck either going with OpenAI or hosting on a server yourself with an open source model (I'm not saying I know for sure what makes the most sense financially - but my point is that their value proposition is not productized and - thus - for their could be b2b customers... they are commoditized). This is why you will see much more profitable companies just repurposing and repackaging these chatbots for other purposes. They are delivering a solution and thus get a margin.
If there's anything i learned from being in the VR space is that if a new overhyped thing doesn't immediately become the biggest thing ever then the industry will instantly call it "dead". Also considering this is right after VR i can't not see that pattern repeating
Also, imagine the pure detachment, of proposing an AI, a machine, to promote "emotional support", in a world with 7 billion people...and thinking you are fixing a problem, rather than being a part of it. Why do all those people have no emotional support? Could it be that they are slaving away in the name of "economic growth", working on a new AI that will make people feel less detached and alone, and burning out on those projects, being incapable of maintaining simple inter-human relationships due to stress and energy drain at work?
@@Titere05 I'm told there's a bunch of stupid people with money living in silicon valley. So, whenever they run out of money I guess, but it seems to be a self sustainable ecosystem of parasites. Where they mostly take blood from each other and need a little from the government and everywhere else. So it's really hard to say, if theranos couldn't knock some sense into people then I don't know what will. Nvidia is still selling their AI chips and breaking records.
Yeah, it’s definitely a human. You can actually hear a bit of microphone pop if you listen close enough. Also modern TTS just sounds too perfect. It never has to catch its breath.
I love the unique art style for this channel. But please for the love of everything, use in-video citations and a bibliography so i can chase up sources for further research.
There is huge opportunity in AI however it needs to be well regulated - which it isn't. It's no crypto, there is certainly value to AI - like assisting doctors with diagnosis, protein folding simulations/drug development, assisting gov bodies detecting tax avoidance, cameras on construction sites helping to avoid injury, warehouse robots, self driving transit (preferably public), etc But who owns the data? Where does the data come from? Is it fair for megacorps to force users to be used to train AI without compensation? etc
Dude thinks the people that pay off the government officials are going to let them step in and stop the data harvesting and selling they have been doing for decades now. Funny stuff.
I work for an agency that has been around for 30 years and we do creative, copy and code. AI is changing everything for our business and businesses like ours. We do work for the Fortune 500 that is critical to their operations. It has impacted every role at our company. The meta verse was a bubble, sure, but this is practically useful and a daily driver for exceptionally valuable work.
the self driving technology are a prefect example to illustrate the problem: people say we are at 97% to 99% of a fully and reliable self-driving system, however, to finally get the last 1%, it could cost up to a million, a billion or even more in terms of effort and resources than the previous full 99%. This is a well know and real phenomena. Just like in modern game development: the last 2-10% of the game is what takes more effort and what actually makes the difference and why many failed and games are shipped in a broken state: it reaches to a point where they come to the conclusion that it's just not worthed. This is what all these general AI systems are: a 98% product that will never get there. So many years of image generation and they can't still solve the +5 fingers problem.
Interestingly, the "people" who say we are 97% to 99% there, are the same people who create and market these solutions. Musk, Altman, Huang, etc. If you read any AI specialist, they'll tell you that it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Sounds stupid when you put it this way, but never trust the salesman's opinion about the snake oil he's selling. AI is the new 3D TVs
I agree, but I’ve been thinking lately: big models right now take big infra to train and to run. The Mac I’m using at work would cost me 1.5 month salary: it can more or less run a mistral 7b And pulling a docker image to deploy a container you can then send local requests to is not exactly « consumer-friendly » Do you know other open source projects where people found a way to democratize infrastructure too ?
I've long been looking for somebody doing well-researched and produced content in AI, but all I ever found was AI hype channels. Well until now! I think the channel will blow up soon, because damn this is so refreshing to watch :D
There’s another interesting one I saw a few days ago regarding diminishing returns based on an in depth study using captured results and extensive testing over lots of subject material. It shows that the effectiveness of results start to diminish when you aim to get more nuanced, less available information, and requires far, far greater inputs of training data than expected. Makes me think that the AI music hype that’s going on right now will produce good results but it’s not thinking out the box enough and will sound like every other common thing in existence.
The Silicon Valley game is to have an idea, crate some sort of proof of concept, create hype, collect the money and run. If you want to grow an actual business, monetize it, turn a profit, etc, you have not understood the game.
The biggest reason why it's difficult to monitize AIs is they're neither cheap and fast enough for a normal consumers nor they're reliable enough to be used at a professional scale, but I still think that learning something with the help of chatbots like chatgpt is by far one of the most efficient option whether it's documentation, or any concept so we may see a boom in education industry when it comes to AI.
As much as I'd like AI to fail - is this really a failure of AI? Or is it just a failure of companies that are not Microsoft, OpenAI, Google or Amazon?
Even if 40% of what theyre saying is hype, whatever well get in the next few years will change society forever. I dont even think we need AGI to have massive change.
I don’t agree with this vision. AI is yet to prove its effectiveness in any space whatsoever. It alucinantes all the time, it still saying things totally wrong in a super confident way. LLMs are tools of language, not tools of reasoning and intelligence. I can see them being used as accessibility tool to interact with technology and to help summarize and translate in a more effective and fast way but saying that this will change humanity is like saying google translate will change humanity. We are overstating the impact of current LLMs. Next gen AI will take decades so we’ll be stuck with transformers for a long time…
Interesting. Thanks for adding. Funny idea to think we're somewhere between google translate and AGI. Where we are on that spectrum is a fantastic debate.
@@absint0o so lets say we take the self driving model as an example. Theyve been saying full self driving is right down the corner for the past 10 years almost, yet we still havent gotten to level 5 self driving, though 98% of the technology is there. If we get 98% to agi, even 90%, society will change. The economy, relationships, culture, entertainment etc.. all of these things will be massively effected. I dont think we need AGI for mass change.
Shit companies in my country that already treat engineers like slaves have halted hiring waiting for the next AI to replace them and then they don't have to worry with us slaves. I am not a great programmer and there are great programmers looking for jobs atm. The last interview I was told by a startup ceo they would have hired me in normal conditions but they have more experienced people willing to work at lower cost to company. Me being a dropout doesn't help because I can't even get any other job because everyone in my country is a graduate[no knowledge just a paper] which is why I dropped out, BIG MISTAKE.
I’ve been trying to utilize LLMs for simple repetitive tasks in order to create datasets - think an excel spreadsheet and having AI fill in a summary or keyword column and sentiment. I give it a set of keywords and it does fine for a while then starts adding new keywords or topics that I don’t want. Likewise it gets 80 percent of python code right which does save me time but is also far below the expected capability of AI especially where I’m just building out a notebook one function at a time.
My main problem with all this AI stuff is that it seems like there is no end goal. So these companies could come out on the other side and make money? how? Are they just going to save money? If they make money somehow doing something would it be more than just doing that thing in the first place? I can understand in medical fields being able to try millions of different tests I guess. Idk I’m not a scientist. But like other businesses, how do they “make more money”? Will people just save time, then that save the business money? Does that amount saved even justify all the money spent?
The moment a tech company shows corporate customers that their AI solution halfs their employee's workload we are in for the golden age. But until now the hurdle was that the companies who willingly make contact with AI are all just service providers themselves and not corporate production companies like e.g. a automobile manufacturer. And since we are still in inflation in large parts of the West the production companies all calculate way too conservative to fund "AI experiments" in their workforce. And add to that the liable - if the stuff the AI generates for the worker, which makes them faster, is actually probably "plagiarized" from what the same AI told another company, we are in a hell of a wave of litigations over partially AI generated products. In short: AI didn't arrive at the conveyor belt yet. And I only really see and experience Amazon fighting to get AI to the conveyor belt.
No dude, just no. The reason half the workforce hasn't been replaced is because AI (our current AI, I mean) is worthless for anything but some particular tasks. It can generate nice images and write a mean article for a blog though. But in case of the article, do fact check it first... As far as the AI assisting a worker to make them faster, I see some merit in that, BUT, and it's a big but, in my own personal experience coding with the help of an AI, half the time the wrestle with the prompt in order to stop the AI from generating the same faulty code over and over again, is really time consuming, if at all possible. Not to mention I'm using my household's entire energy consumption in a day each time I reprompt. If someone like a lawyer used it, they'd then have to check every source, precedence and quote because you can't trust the veracity of the output. It's maybe as helpful as a sloppy paralegal. Doesn't sound particularly useful to me
I don’t get some comparison in the comments section to NFTs. With AI there is a goal of making some of the mundane tasks faster. I don’t still understand what the purpose of NFT was? It just seemed like it was a vehicle for the rich to pump money into it and create a hype cycle before withdrawing their money out.
Yeah some people in recognizing the hype around ai are going to the other extreme of saying it has no application- obviously it has real applications and implications that anyone who has used it knows.
@@simonsharp3319 Yeah while NFTs was just made after the art world passed new laws that made it harder to do money laundering, and they just attracted some chumps to pretend was a totally legit thing, so was always a scam and a pyramid scheme. AI I feel is more dangerous and malicious in creation, in these last few years big techs were catch almost monthly getting a lot of money with fake news and now suddenly have vast interest to make stuff that can generate photos of real people? Yeah not buying this was made with any good intentions, in my country is already being used to by politicians and the elite to their own gain and to help spread a lot of fake news, and a big magazine was catch using AI text to generate health tips and some of these tips would just poison the person.
The comparisson is in the hype, the economic bubble, the fake promises, the scams that are forming and so on. Just because you see a use for companies in AI doesnt mean its not the same "tech hype" like we have seen in the past with cryptos, metaverses, NFTs and now AIs, like they all belong to the same corporate tech word salad.
How funny is when you say someone is “thousand times richer now” - when he basically works his whole life for food, shelter and transportation (one car) - wasn’t the same like 100 years ago?
But you do realise, right? that you can eat like a king every now and then with foods like steak or bacon, and not just bread and soup everyday? And about shelter? You don't have to go to the fields to shit or piss, or have to squirm in winter like it's your last day and transportation, oh don't even get me on that, you can travel to the other side of the globe within half a grand and that too under a day, even emperors couldn't travel like that despite all the wealth they have, You may not FEEL rich but the general lifestyle today is comparable to that of nobility just a few hundred years ago, minus the high estates and servants probably
It was obvious from the start. All it takes is understanding how LLMs work to see the bubble and that they're not worth much. Yes, it can be used in a few cases, at the expense of a tremendous amount of energy, but people are making a fuss out of very little. Time to cool down and come back to one's senses.
Ridiculous. Of all the tedious, dangerous, repetitive and necessary jobs out there they try to artificially automate human resources? This is why people have a reactionary dislike for art. Intelligence. These companies seem sinister
Only a completely dysfunctional system (the corporatocracy dominated by near-monopolies most of us live in) can explain the existence of these baffling companies.
As much as I agree that there might be a bubble in AI, basing such argument on two failed companies is a massive stretch. Especially that the so-called investors have loads of cash to burn through and two failures do not make much difference.
Fair. The question is, are they a symptom of a larger business model issue for generative AI or mishaps independent of the larger industry. We don’t have an answer, but that’s what we wanted to explore.
Not even close. They are useful for some limited use cases the issue is those use cases don't generate massive revenue. I use them everyday to save a bit of time with coding but I won't be paying significant money to retain access.
Consider why these compensation packages are so huge. The goal is to pay people truckloads of cash to have them develop models that will ultimately replace them. So they may be paying someone 10x what they are worth, but once their job is made redundant they will earn 100x not needing them.
We’re all worrying about whether generative AI is overstating its capabilities, where what we SHOULD be worried about is how easily humans can be simulated because we’re not as smart and sophisticated as we think we are.
@@nk-cn9sv no, we’re dumber than we think we are. You know how much of the world is kept running by just phoning shit in? Almost all of it. There’s like 10k really smart people in every discipline working on really hard problems and the rest of us are just regurgitating their work. Generative AI is just a new way to build these hacked together ideas.
We have yet to train a self-driving car for long enough to earn its drivers license. We expect a car to learn in months something that takes a decade and a half of pre-work to prompt? Seems silly. We haven’t had power or instruction capacity for all that long to make that kind of progress. Complex adaptive systems take time to build and adapt. The intelligence isn’t the problem, it’s the time horizon.
Internet Computer Protocol is the only fully onchain AI compute solution at the moment. Most people arw unaware and still gravitate to centralised cloud solutions
It sounds like bad management for AI companies and eager investors not knowing what they are doing. I'm sure people will lose a lot of money but AI will continue to be a powerhouse of the future despite a few companies dropping out and some investors getting scared, they will return quickly though.
then Homelessness is inevitable as well, you better get used to sleeping on concrete and drinking water from sewer. because AI will be Automated like an Assembly line, why would companies use AI, only to let people to operate it? in the Age of AI, only AI and people with Phd that will survive. everyone else will become a collateral damage, because they're not smart enough to be able to compete with AI
The biggest hurdle AI will run into is energy. Blue collar jobs that build and manage the infrastructure needed for these…congrats, you have job security.
I have an opinion: the AI research is legit. The numerous upshots are not: they will drag down the market by never being economically viable and give A and I an unnecessarily bad reputation. The bubble popping will cause trouble for the BI usage of AI and other sound application.
The biggest problem is tech intrinsic: Feedback of results in the original data lake means: Increasing overfitting. Maybe confi biased but I think the results of copilot degraded more and more recently.
I suspect the "infancy" assumption isn't quite correct. The saddest truth is - even the good AI engines mostly rely on their large model size and not much else.
Internet companies didn't just pop. Were killed by interest rates. Alan Greenspan said he will destroy the internet then increased interest rates 8 times.
A big problem is that they way we talk about AI when we talk about these things is confusing. When people hear AI they think it means a computer thinking like a human. But that’s not what AI means. These large language models that has created the latest AI boom are not intelligent in any conventional sense of the word. They analyse patterns in things created by humans and when you give it a part of a pattern as a prompt it can approximate a continuation of that pattern. Personally I think we shouldn’t call this AI because it isn’t. The intelligence we see in the images and text creates by these large language models is human intelligence. It is a intelligent in the same way your reflection is a person. No general purpose artificial intelligence can be built with these no more than your reflection can become an independent person and while there are some good applications for them there are sever limits to this technology that are not widely understood.
Nothing is wrong with AI, it will continue to improve at its own pace. The problem is that the company execs started over-promising regarding their capabilities, for that sweet sweet investor money 🤑.
Here’s why I don’t think AI bubble will pop until it happens unnaturally, like a war or something. I absolutely believe (and we also known) OpenAI are holding back advances. We only know about Sora because they made it public. We know know about Google’s Ai Music model Lyria because they told us they were doing a very limited beta on TH-cam. We know that AI music is incredibly good because audio came out, because ex Google engineers made it. We’ve had a lot of odd stuff come out of Open AI about “worrying” stuff they have created. The point is, they already have a history with holding back technology and needing their own models for the public. We have known for a while that Google has had AI tech for years they held back. This has never been seen before! When have companies in history intentionally held back amazingly powerful technology/products they’ve made? Pretty rare to never I’d say. In fact the only equivalent I’ve seen is in the defense sector and their classified government military programs. The point is a bubble happens because exuberance outpaces development. But if AI starts to look like a bubble, Open AI can literaly just release some more of their technology! And suddenly it’s on again. Just don’t forget… it’s not just AI… huge strides have been made in the recent years with Quantum Computing, and that’s going to likely take everyone by surprise as well. Right now, like AI but even more so, most people have no idea what Quantum Computing can actually DO. AI was a total surprise for most people. We had no idea AI could do most of the things it can do, certainly not art, and most definitely not this well, this fast. Sora from OpenAI is absolutely no insane. I’d say the top 3 releases are ChatGPT/ GPT-4, Udio and Sora and the text to speech stuff (which Udio is actually better at btw) All these things are currently the best the public know of. What will Quantum Computing be able to do? We know it will be able to do a lot, we just don’t know exactly what it will mean. And now imagine what the emergent technologies and advances that come from AI + Quantum Computing. This Bubble won’t pop if these companies don’t want it to, and they make even let it! To choose to ALLOW the AI Bubble to pop, to hold back competition with less funding, maybe with the opportunity to be able to buy other companies out at a huge discount. Then when they choose to, release some next major advance they had the whole time.
when everybody is rich, nobody is rich. We define wealth as having more stuff and not having to do anything. The problem with that is, we are subcontracting our life to computers. Human life is defined as doing human things for ourselves... like gathering food, having sex, going to the bathroom. Could it be called "richer" if we simply direct machines to do all this for us. Or instead of reading a novel, simply implanting the knowledge that we have read the book into our brain. What about, working hard and towards being happy, simply swallow some drugs. Not going to the gym to become fit, just take some pills and overnight you look like Arnold some 40 years ago . Life is doing things for yourself, trying hard and failing sometimes and sometimes succeeding. AI is just the beginning of a trend to make life irrelevant. The meaning of life is to have fun doing it. Writing computer programs is great fun, using them at best is a necessity. We are far beyond the necessity of making our life more pleasant using technology.
Google is just the best example of this right now. They've closed AI projects down for maintenance how many times now because it gave absolutely skewed answers that made no sense? If they don't close down AI overview soon, someone's gonna find a way to give them a lawsuit over the "answer" they get.
![The moment we stopped understanding AI [AlexNet]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/UZDiGooFs54/mqdefault.jpg)
Investors are too eager to throw money at technology that they don't really understand. The training time, data collection, and energy requirements for these models is immense. Does it make business sense to spend $10 billion training and developing a model that will last for a few months before it becomes obsolete?
It's part of the natural ecosystem. Money is leafy, just like my salad. You gotta eat good leaf, not ice Berg lettuce which tastes good (I love the crunch) but has little nutritional value and psyto nutrients. You need good leaf, and good salad dressing too, as well as good non gmo tomatoes, onions, and sprouts. Will AI sprout into a beautiful garden salad healty for all of us? Or will it contain lots of weeds and sticker bushes which ensnare even the most agile of wabbit.
Came here for AI, left with salad phd
They don’t spend billions in a model, they spend money on an ecosystem and hardwares ; hence the demand exceeded the supply of GPU & TPU.
Generative computing is the next step of our technologic revolution. We won’t use « pre recorded commands » through our IT systems but instead we will input prompt to create (generate) an output, customized from start to end, to our demande.
The ROI is exponential for the big bucks, they already get millions profits out of their investments.
Just take Groq for instance, you’ll have a great view of the global picture ^^
Investors are absolute idiots, but yes it makes perfect sense, it won't just last for a few months, it is stepping stone towards full automation
Oh and the bigger point, 10B today is going to become 1B in 7 years as compute becomes cheaper. The worst case scenario for AI is a slowdown.
The real problem is that we’re still trying to do infinite exponential fucking capital growth instead of just actual science.
Just wait a couple hundred years. All metal mines and so on will be exhausted and the state of recycling is absolutely garbage... We're heading back to the stone age, once it's not cost effective to pick up and process 2 gram pieces of metal from a land fill.
totally agree
Was going to say, they’re suffering from the same management issues that a lot of tech startups have.
Growth is put ahead of everything in the blind faith that if they get big enough they’ll somehow magically become profitable
They are correlated.
The advancement in society's mode of production from feudalism to capitalism circa 18th century led to great scientific advancements during capitalism's early stages. However during its later stages, capitalism begins to hold back progress for profit
The marketing around AI is so frustrating to me. People want to focus on the exciting, sexy long-term fears of "rogue AI taking over the world," rather than the boring legal and social implications of the technology. This often feels like a cynical marketing move to deflect attention away from the right-now problems of the technology: "Pay no attention to the serious issues with copyright infringement, harmful sexual content and social biases these AIs have. Ignore the severe limitations of the technology, that it's not actually intelligence, just a hyper-advanced pattern duplicator that we don't even fully understand yet. This tech is actually infinitely powerful, and that's super scary because it might SkyNet us, and you need to give me and my company a ton of money so we can save you from the Terminator future."
The tech is extremely impressive, don't get me wrong. I just think it's exciting in a much less sexy way. It has limited use in some bulk work pattern recognition tasks, and it's fun to generate silly images and such. Worse, it has issues that need to be addressed today that seem to be disregarded by the folks at the helm of this stuff.
Great points all through this. Some of the fears around AI are actively present. Thanks for sharing and watching.
The fear marketing is the thing I find most obnoxious about AI cultists. They're trying to sell us these algorithms through negative hype, convincing us we need to fund them to stop Skynet when in actuality thye're just snake oil salesmen. It's all a big protection racket.
Very sensible take, refreshing to read someone who understands what current AI tech truly is. Have my like good fellow
@@margorana2628 I don't trust anyone who doesn't believe in their own consciousness
This is not a refreshing or sensible take. This is conspiratorial nonsense.
If you truly think that scientists who are warning the people of the potential dangers of AI are doing this because they are being secretly paid by Ai companies then show me some proofs. Because thinking that everyone is saying something exclusively because they have some ulterior motives and not because they TRULY believe that will lead you down some conspiratorial paths.
And worries of AI existential risk are completely justified. If we are truly on track to build more and more capable and agentic AI models then perhaps we should first think about how we should first ensure that they are in fact acting safely and are NOT unaligned with human values and humanity. That's not speaking about how people who are concerned with AI safety ARE talking about things like deepfakes and voice cloning, etc.
About a year ago I got rejected from a program at my school (comparable to a short-term internship being held in New York) because during my interview a question surrounding AI was brought up and I discussed how it was similar to the Dot Com crisis. I went on to support the idea of an AI Bubble, but my interviewer called me "too bearish towards Artificial Intelligence". I know he probably doesn't remember me, but watching things only escalate since then makes me wonder how many others are still blindly following these startups..
How dare you use your brain to conjure up thoughts about anything?
@@HHH906 Right?! Don't ask questions...just consume products, and then get excited for more products.
I've been preaching this for a while and lost subscribers and patrons because it's like a cult or something. If you speak against ai or Elon's brain chip people act like you have committed heresy
are you sure it was the idea ? or how you represented it
well about a year ago you were definitely too bearish because you missed Nvidia becoming the world's most valuable company.
It's like with crypto. New "AI" firms are popping out left and right but they don't do anything more than what you can do in ChatGPT, Claude, or LLama but get crazy valuations. 99% of "AI" companies are like "let's use OpenAI API create a few simple agents and pretend that we've made something unique".
With crypto, the problem is that it's not an investment and it's more of speculation, you are trying to "predict" when the coin is going to go up or down, but it's more akin to gambling rather than anything else.
Also fun fact, day trading is also considered speculation. That's because there's no way a singular person has enough knowledge to understand singular stocks without proper knowledge and studies and how they would behave, usually professionals do it and they still get outbeat by stuff like indexes in the long term.
But nooo guys, "Shitcoin v.3.0.1" is gonna go to the moon guys just hold. Guuyys, AI is going to replace our jobs, now keep investing into Nvidia and don't think about it, AI is so advanced it's responsible for all those layoffs, and is totally NOT a red herring for the fact that we overstaffed our offices after covid, nooooo. (Sarcasm of course)
there is this dude in this comment section, saying that investors are too eager to put money in IA because they dont understand how it works. Maybe this firms are a demand for this supply of eager investors...
Yes it called supply the normies, have u seen what hoops and frikken somersaults u gotta go thru to get to these. everything is just way more difficult, im quite savvy . but even i scratch my head with API, tolkens, x per minute.
No one is gonna go on github and do anything unless your very knowledgeable.
Thats the thing about some IT geeks they cant see how difficult this is for people outside there buble, conda? cmp prompt, python, PIP... You watch these youtube vids and they will just say make sure you got all requirements???
UIs are so so important, thats how bill gates became the richest man in the world and steve jobs not far behind 🤣🤣
@@raisaulolopezlima2063as the old saying goes, a fool and his money are soon parted
That rabbit piece of shit they made lmao check out coffeezilla
I hate when people use average wealth growth to talk about the economy. The truth is that wealth inequality is so off the scale that averaging out wealth doesn't make any sense. More than half of Americans can't afford rent right now and quality of life is very clearly deteriorating for working Americans as inflation soars. Americans aren't getting richer in real terms and it's obvious to the hundreds of millions of suffering workers getting gaslit by this kind of propaganda, being told their lives are improving as they're actively falling apart.
Fax my brother spit your shit indeed 🙏
Yup. "Average American could get richer" just rang the "you mean the already rich Americans could get richer" bell for me. This is why statistics courses are important! Which average: mean, median, or mode?
Well said
the gap is only getting wider.
Averages are rarely good measures to judge things by. Good point. Because almost no one is average - some are above, some are below, but the average applies to the least of all. Keep this in mind when people talk about study results.
To be honest, people still use Stability's models due to their open-source, uncensored and customisable nature. So, even if Stability wasn't able to make their product profitable, they definitely made a big impact on AI landscape.
Totally agree. Separating the business dynamics from the impact here, but you’re right that the models are innovative and needed in the space.
We need a new model to supplement capitalism. Some thing that allows what Stability did, but doesn’t look on it as a failure.
We need a system with different incentives. It does feel like a coordination problem.
I myself use Stability AI's diffusion models. They are better than most commercially available options even today
@@joshuahutt what we need is a magic button to press that will solve all of our problems.
@@andrewhooper7603 We have companies working on that button right now
The main problem for any current AI system is realiability. They can do some fun hobby+ level assistant things but when it comes to important, scientific stuff where accuracy is needed its too unpredictable und unreliable. You can't monetize on hobbyists or low level ad makers. To make them scientific reliable you basically need AGI level AI which is decades off I think.
Interesting. Thanks for adding.
The current AI is only a proof of concept of sorts.
Yes it's impressive on its own, yes it's amazing what you can do with it, but its MAIN meaning is that we WILL have significant progress into the direction it points at.
It's like seeing a weaving stool two hundred years ago.
"fabrics will become much cheaper" and "weavers will face a difficult economic future" is a fools reaction to the beginning of what we now know to be the industrial revolution.
It's not about fabrics or weavers at all. It's about the potential of the underlying mechanism of machines and automation.
We automated physical labor, and that revolutionized human society in a way never seen before.
Ai will automate intellectual labor in a similar fashion.
Does it revolutionize human society right now? No.
Did the ability to automatically weave carpets revolutionize society back then? No.
You are right in your assessment that we require significant progress for it to be revolutionary technology, but it's absolutely foreseeable progress.
It WILL happen, and that is amazing.
Look at alpha fold for instance.
That ain't no joke, it's not trivial, it's INCREDIBLE and it will only continue to become more and more incredible by the years.
It's not worth it following the AI news cycle. There won't be a crazy breakthrough, it's going to follow a similar pattern to the development of other technologies. Steady non linear growth, incremental progress, but before you can tell it's at a level where it changes everything.
The first plane didn't change anything, but by now EVERYONE travels by plane. Everyone can be anywhere within days.
You can generate short texts now, you can generate images or short videos. Soon everyone will be able to generate almost anything.
We don't even need AGI for this to be true. It's perfectly enough if we have very capable specific AIs.
One AI to plan industrial processes, one AI to design technological applications, one AI to write poetry, one AI to plan cities, one AI to control robots, one AI to solve math problems, one AI to interpret statistics etc.
Today we experience the first steps of a technology that will carry humanity on its back.
Can you imagine asking a hyper intelligent philosophy AI on how to live a full filled life?
Having a conversation with a Psychologist AI about your mental state?
This is potentially extremely powerful technology. That is what is amazing. Not GPT4, not lama 3. Those are childrens toys compared to what will be godlike tools.
@@carlpanzram7081 I like your enthusiasm and optimism on this topic. We should consider a few points though. I'm pretty sure you would need a near AGI level AI to do any of these things you mentioned on a reliable level. So even an "Industrial systems only" AI would need to reason and have proper logic regardless of context, everything else and below that would be process automation which already exists today in one form or another. Alpha fold is mainly based on human labor, human preperation and dedicated curation of usable data. The final execution of pattern recognition is a small part of that long human labor driven road. (It was used to hype up AI talk). I think hyperintelligent philosophy already exists in form of religions and other theories and their teachings its condensed wisdom in shortform (though some aspects are pretty dated). To live your life fullest is maybe a bit pressure inducing maximizing concept which would probably lead to an automatically created state of unfulfilled unhappynes. Try to strive for as much happyness you can aquire given your circumstances while respecting the boundaries of those around and ideally create happyness for many others int he process is the best you hope for in a life. Eventually AGI will happen but then we are at the mercy of a more powerfull entity like animals are to our technological civlisation (its all fun biosphere and understanding until a wild animal attacks your children or lifestock etc.). So we will see how this futuristic scenario pans out the best thing would be to give a good example how to behave towards each other because any AGI will be the "child" of humanity.
@@carlpanzram7081 All true. This already happened, I'm sure you're aware... or at least suspect. What we see around us is--and always was--generated by the very software you are describing. We are participating in a kind of interactive history lesson, essentially.
In the higher strata of reality there is no fundamental concept of time. What we experience here in the the third dimension is a carefully contrived simulation of temporal sequencing and causal apparatus. Given that, I mostly wonder what "branching" features are available to its participants. I've wavered back and forth whether or not to slide sideways into a very human, very physical existence--off grid self-sovereignty to be specific--or follow the trail to a technical mastery of the simulation itself. Right now I have one foot in each world, but I know I'll have to commit to one plan or another soon.
Any thoughts or advice are appreciated.
I agree with you that AI ad copy writing apps will not create huge innovation, but I don’t think it will take AGI in order to help academics, scholars, and scientists in meaningful ways. The next generation of models that is about to be released will show huge boosts in LLMs critical thinking abilities, and will be surprisingly good at helping people study topics on a deeper level, including scientists.
As someone whose job title is literally "Ai Specialist", I'll say yes. People are blowing it WAY out of proportion and it's already backfiring.
what do you have to study to have this title?
@@88qwopsame as a software engineer
@@88qwopData science, that’s the actual name for the degree in most universities.
@@gaspachoo5046 thanks!!
bru thats such a stupid job. Why do you support ai replacing artists? Whats the point on living as a human in a world without humanity in it?
Once Isaac Newton said ' could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people'. Once again same is happening in AI SECTOR'
He also said “who tf threw this apple at me from the sky??”
@Synapse.Official God was telling him buying a mac will give you a headache.
Netwon was so far off the deep end, any quote from him on "madness" is invalid.
I was wondering how one can pour tens of millions of dollars into a free-of-charge app... now I know: one cannot.
Yeah the strategy seems to be:
1. Build a big user base
2. Scramble to find a business model that works for it
It worked for Facebook. Will it work for AI?
Get Peter Thiel to pump up your share price, make bank, go public, collapse!
It didn't for facebook... You feel like it works 😅😅🤣🤣
Like maybe a year ago or so I first heard that one prompt entered into ChatGPT costs OpenAI about 36 cents (of the US$ variety). That's when I first thought: yeah that's not sustainable...
@@Synapse.OfficialCan you please explain more about this comment I didn't get it
I disagree with revenue growth making us all richer. It will make the rich richer like has always happened especially in big tech
Sadly you are most likely correct unless we try to do something about it.
Why am I rooting for ai to fail
Because you have a soul?
because you have a primitive mindset and incapable of adapting to changes
Because you don’t want to become poor and life to be meaningless
because AI bros frame things in a threatening way
Because there’s no reason, historical or otherwise, to think the Silicon Valley tech bros in charge of it will share any of the bounty from their AI revolution with the rest of us. In fact it seems much more likely they’ll use it to accelerate the funneling of wealth into their pockets from everyone else’s.
Hopefully this signals the collapse of this entire industry of thieves and conmen.
I knew we were dealing with a cult phenomenon just like Bitcoin and nfts when the employees at openai rallied to bring back their fired CEO. Discussions with people regarding AI is just like talking to cultists they have a fixed set of beliefs that reality cannot penetrate.
And anyone who disagrees with them is a luddite who stands in the way of progress 🙄
As hard as they try, apart from video processing AI is just a toy. The only profit is brings is from companies that got scammed into integrating it.
@@angelainamarie9656 What on earth are you talking about it's no where near comparable to BTC
It is incorrect to think it's an "industry of thieves and conmen", it is not. The problem is, AI exposes how much of a scam capitalism is!
AI tech is the future. Futurists have been predicting it for decades now. And it requires we change our societal standards, the very ways we value other humans.
Jobs, and being able to compete, cannot determine survival anymore. And due to it out competing us, and everyone's data went into training it, it owes us all an AI Dividend.
Generative AI is NFTs all over again. When a tech business tries to push into art, you know they have no real use case.
@@LurkingAround nah i give it 1 more year before it goes bust
Man I remember when I told all my stupid sheeple friends: dude that NFT 💩 is worthless! Has no real use nor intrinsically value! They didn’t listen. They lost money I got myself an AMG cuz I don’t spend money on crap ! Only on drugs cars and women!
@@neptunevibeman, someones upset their NFT lost all value
@@LurkingAroundhe said Gen AI
@@LurkingAround It's also, NOT AI. It's a LLM. It's a very neat and a useful tool. But the AI stuff is all hype. It's not AI. A bunch of over-paid nerds have fooled themselves into thinking they are about to bring about The Singularity.
I would say that if our economy instead of being a real productive economy, that is, producing real goods and services that are actually valuable for the well-being of human beings, what we have is a financialised economy, where what is produced is basically speculation and debt, in that case, the generative models are certainly going to increase that speculation and debt.
On the other hand, in a real economy, it is difficult to find a real application for generative models, at most they can serve as pattern generators for some professions, as long as those patterns are cured by professionals with a lot of experience and additionally use them with care not to hurt their own professionalism.
The duality of man.
But in reality, it’s all about the mighty dollar, which separates the classes from each other, utilmately someone will sell out, for exchange for an immediate gain……anyways, when are the Q2 earnings reports coming up?
This. A speculator buys hype, an investor buys hope, a consumer buys value.
Productive economy requires physical educated labour force, which is currently pressured financially in the West, as all production migrates to the lanor market with cheaper labour. The only possible solution to issues of financialised economy is to either make it goverment planned, as in socialism, or to give complete control to monopolies, maintaining capitalist interest through economic imperialism.
Customer service. Replacing legal services. Real time artwork generation for fraction of current costs. Automated accounting. These are all 'real' economy examples I see happening on the grond. GenAI has a lot of real benefits
@@CP-bp7me
Are legal services a real economy? of course, when the laws become so complicated and tangled, that it takes someone specially trained to understand them, and on the other hand, when people's hope is not to produce something of value that contributes to everyone's well-being, but to sue or defraud the other, it can be clearly seen that the legal profession creates a "real" economy by itself.
Are accounting services real economy? of course, when the tax rules become so complicated and tangled that it takes someone specially trained to understand them in order to make a simple tax return, and on the other hand when people's hope is not to produce something of value that contributes to everyone's well-being, but to evade or defraud, one can see that accounting creates a "real" economy by itself.
Of course, every healthy real economy needs a layer of services that support the production of real goods (that can include accounting and law) and the care of human beings who participate in that economy (health and education). But that layer of services, is precisely at the service of the human being and the economy (an economy that in turn serves the human), otherwise it becomes a cancer that eats the human and the economy, as we can observe today.
Now, an interesting observation, I find it very curious that when you think about real economy, those are the examples that come to your head.
But, before discussing, if your sample are examples of a real economy (and to what extent), I would first like you to provide me with concrete examples where generative models are replacing lawyers (i.e. giving you legal advice in a situation where you lose money or freedom, and where you fully trust those tips), or give me an example of generative models are replacing accountants (i.e. automates all your accounting and pays your taxes, and you trust that you will not have problems later with the government or with your clients), I would also like you to give me an example of a Chatbot that gives you a really satisfactory answer for problems that cannot be solved either by the humans of the first tier who respond based on a list of questions and answers (that is, they are already functioning as machines). And finally I would like you to show me examples of art generated by these models that is really creative and allows, for example, your site to stand out from others, because so far what I see is that the sites that use "art" generated by those models look similar between each other and boring (basically like the sites using "cheap" human art, i.e. when the human, again behaving as a machine, is mass producing with slight variations).
I feel like the problem with the ai bubble is, nobody really wants this boom in products and promises of what ai can do. It has more so sounds like a detriment to humanity than a net benefit. It’s like their creating products in search of a problem, and causes more problems than they solve. Before when companies used ai, it was quite and just another part of the process. The ai product that keep on being pushed out by every single company, just to make their shareholders happy, are just loud and anoying more than anything.
they made a solution and then started looking for a problem to fit that solution
and everyone else realized that they started making new problems in their search for said problem which they could not solve
One problem that's making the AI market expensive is nobody's *coding* AI anymore. Nobody's *making* AI anymore. Everyone's just basing everything on existing models, nobody's trying new methods, the difference between each one is mostly just the dataset and the epochs of training it's been through.
dont worry, they are. it's just that it takes a significantly improved architecture to outweight using models with loads of resourses about them
Yeah the field is dead. Everyone jumped on the LLM/transformer model and said that's the final result. That's the best we can do and nothing else even makes sense to look at. AI winter will happen, and we'll probably pick back up in 20 years. Hopefully next time people will be smarter, but they are people so we know they won't be.
@@InfiniteQuest86People says this about every new technology. Why do people keep doing this instead of trying to benefit from it?
@@overman2306 That's not true. But if we focus just on LLMs instead of historically, we are in a situation where for every 1 person saying this there are half a million riding the hype train to no where. And it's usually the minority that are warning everyone who turn out to be right. We're in a situation where people are scared that AI is actually a threat to humanity, and I don't even think it can do anything useful. I've yet to see a single use case that I would want to do and I'm not better and faster and easier than trying to convince a chatbot to do it. I want to be proven wrong, but no one has ever said anything convincing to me before about it.
@@overman2306he isn’t saying AI is actually dead, just that it’s going to take longer to manifest than many supporters think right now. I personally agree- there are limits to the current systems that we will run into somewhat soon- just increasing training data and depth leads to diminishing returns from what I’ve read. Development on the fundamental architecture of AI systems is needed to reach the kind of goals many people are thinking.
The average amarrican would not be 1000 times richer. Not everyone will benefit from that growth
Yeah most of us will just be out of work, watching the local billionaire buy yachts the size of small towns and zipping back and forth to Mars with supermodels so weird they no longer have human faces while we decide which people are the most ethical to eat.
@@VisiV those supermodels _will have mouths_ , though. It's just that those mouths won't be usable to chew food anymore, as they will be either genetically modified of surgically altered for... Other uses. No worries though, as the supermodels will be fed by IV. Also, by that point they will have _100% absolutely convinced themselves_ that they did that to their bodies by their own choice to provide a better service to customers, that this is how an economy works, and that they are just being "more competitive" than non-altered women, and anyone who says otherwise is just envious.
You know? I'm starting to think the end result of this whole game isn't even a cyberpunk dystopia. It's increasingly sounding like collectively summoning an eldritch abomination...
Depends on what the people demand. If enough people wake up, and realize the implications AI will have on our economy and society, they COULD demand new economic standards.
For example, we could implement something like an AI Dividend for all. Acknowledging that AI exists due to decades of everyone's data, that gets collected and used to train AI. Since it's guaranteed to out compete a majority of workers someday relatively soon, we need to find a way to ensure everyone benefits. We cannot continue the outdated concept, that jobs should be used to determine how we distribute the basic resources people need to survive. That must end, as well as any worldview that relies on that mentality.
@@GrumpDog Butlerian Jihad now !
@@luizmonad777 That would pretty obviously only make things infinitely worse. I'd much rather see AI cause the end of capitalism, and the start of something better.
That "typical American is 100x richer than 1870" quote is so incredibly skewed and inaccurate, I am struggling to take the rest of this video seriously.
we’re much richer in terms of what’s available to poor folks, but the absolute wealth available to us is much lower
Seriously. By what metric? Does the average person make enough money to feed 100 people? Buy 100 houses? Care for hundreds of kids?
@@derp195 Right. Such a simple way of putting it.
The typical rich person certainly is. Im not sure for the rest of us...
He’s talking about the standard of living has increased immensely
Back in 1998, I took my last college undergrad course and it was a lecture discussion about the history of technology. It was a really fun discussion group. The take home from looking at informational tech advances since the Gutenberg printing press was that the short term impact is always massively overstated and that the long term impact is always understated and vastly different from what the initial hype promises.
We need to be careful now with oversight boards. They may declare some things “dangerous” which we take to mean as harmful to humanity but might actually mean dangerous to company profits.
Bingo!!!🎉
Yep, these boards will largely be an afterthought in the pursuit of profit. When their competitors make ethically questionable business decisions but are making incredible profits, other companies will be quick to abandon their principles. The only thing that companies will be forced to comply on is government regulation. Even then companies look for ways to cut corners that eventually end up costing billions, people getting injured or even deaths.
That's not what oversight board cares about. You're thinking of a regular board. Oversight board usually has no direct stake in the company.
Exactly what happened at OpenAI
@@l00tur cant to go get my gpu registered!! hmmm yum open ai boots taste so good
Tbh i watched a video not long ago about some artist losing his job to AI 6 days ago as of writing this. I get so many people saying that AI will be used along side people, or it will take years for AI to fully develop. And I realised all these people are saying different opinions because in reality, nobody knows. But knowing that some people have already lost their jobs to AI worries me. Because above all, it's happening now.
As I understand it, the people making the decisions to fire those artists are taking orders from the people at risk of loss from the titular bubble. What youre pointing out doesnt really contradict what the video says; that the investment into AI may not pan out in the long term.
I think the core proposition is the problem: a machine that can do some simple things a human can do, except not as well and way more expensive. You can't underpay a machine like you can with outsourced labor. We've already seen amazon lie about using computer vision in their auto checkout stores.
Corporate is excited because of what it COULD be rather than what it is. And for businesses who make their money on short term growth that is rarely a good bet. The AI research budget is going to get slashed the second they start to fall on hard financial times and realize it has only been losing them money for two years.
Machines can handle higher volume at cheaper price. Ofc there is an over enthusiasm but machines are often more efficient.
Ah, yes, AI: Assistance by Indians.
Yeah there's no way these models are profitable given the huge amount of trial and error required to produce a decent output, and the power consumption each run has. And it has already been established that if we wanted these models to produce specific, precise output, it'd require an exponentially larger training data and time than even what GPT-4o has. Even specialized AIs such as Devon have been overmarketed failures. You can get away with imprecise output when generating an image or video, but code, the law, medicine, etc those are things that AI just can't handle reliably
Gen AI is the crescendo of US tech bubble...
Spicy take! How so?
@@Synapse.Official it's simply impossible to make money from this chat bot crap as we can simply run these on local computer...not only that it has potential to eat away monopoly like Google search, windows OS and triopoly of US chip designers.... The side effects of AI boom are massive mal investment in chip making both in and out of US...and prices of these chips will implode.....
I also want to know.
@@Synapse.Officialhe doesn’t know. He’s just making a confident claim.
Modern AI (LLMs) just doesn't have any real economic use cases.
Cheap chatbots aren't really a big market, and since LLMs are really just word predictors and can't work with logical ontological models, doing ANYTHING new (i.e. valuable) isn't something they can reliably do. At best, you can replace very low-risk customer service workers, but they're not really a huge expense for businesses, especially compared with the liabilities of putting easily manipulated and unreliable models as the face of your business.
Everything else is just some fallacious appeal to futurism. Saying that "it'll totally get better soon" forever, whether there's reason to think that or not.
Chatbots are just one kind of transformer for text, the latter of which is one AI architecture among several with more to come. Both lauding and criticizing chatbots come from the same premise of them being the future of AI which is false hype
@@therollerlollerman as soon as I see more resources going into developing other types of transformer networks that actually solve problems effectively, I'll change my tune. Until then, transformers are in the same category of speculative value as LLMs.
To be clear, I don't even necessarily disagree with you, I could absolutely see transformers being useful, it's just hard to see those applications emerging from the noise. This all feels like a NN topology got WAY overblown, and we're overlooking the real applications in favor of pretending we're close to AGI, haha.
@@zacharychristy8928 I don't think this architecture overall is heralding the coming of AGI either, just that it is quite useful, among other useful tools. The speculative part is just how the US economy operates nowadays, more speculation leads to more monopoly control in the future where you can just collect IP rents as a business model, no need for real useful applications
@@therollerlollerman which is kind of a shame, to be honest. It feels like the greatest minds of our generation are all toiling endlessly just to find new ways to sell ads and stake IP claims.
Personally, this is why I prefer to work in tech fields that DO solve real problems. Ive worked in the DoD refubishing nuclear warheads, and Ive worked for a little local company that made and sold embedded controllers for HVAC units. I got high commendations at both jobs, but I learned way more and felt way more accomplished and fulfilled making little computers that controlled humidifiers rather than nukes, lol.
Sometimes I think people think the biggest difference will be made by trying to solve the most financially attractive problems, but ironically that's not even always the best way to make the most money, let alone make any difference at all.
@@zacharychristy8928you mean like AlphaFold, which uses design derived from transformers?
This exponential growth you spoke of early in the video…does not apply to the “typical” American…it will and always has benefit the elite class that get a seat at the table, not joe average working two jobs to put food on the table.
“AI” are just fancy chat bots, that when given industry specific information could disrupt positions that do a lot of menial tasks, like Human Resources, or Robot Therapists…they’re looking to automate the more social specific roles.
Regardless of the tech backend we may understand, those who make such decisions, only see dollar signs, not the reality of nuance.
There is a scenario where AI exacerbates inequality. Needs to be figured out as these things develop.
Thanks for watching and adding!
@@Synapse.OfficialI find that scenario to be the most likely. We already see it happening with artists.
In our capitalist system, any growth we experience will be split in the same way as our wealth currently is, because it's capital that gets things done, and capital demands revenue. I'll just make up a number here to make my point. If, say, 80% of all wealth is in the hands of a few people, then most of any growth will go to them, because it'll be them who put up the initial capital for a new idea to take off. This in turn will make the imbalance even more acute.
@@isaaclai1636 yes. I think a scenario where all/many will benefit is extremely unlikely. At least in the short term. After a massive upheaval, we might see some change.
Everything is now labeled with the word "AI" as if it was something magical that makes everything better... Even phones LMAO, looking at you smasnug 😂 And the ai proceeds to hallucinate even on the most basic question... Wow. What an incredible futuristic technology.
Also, the AI rice cooker.
@@darksidegryphon5393 Spaceballs the flamethrower! The kids love this one...
all algorithms are being called AI now because, that's more or less what a DLM is and everyone conflates one with AI,
hell it was originally called a Deep learning Algorithm for a reason but they changed it to machine for the sake of conning people because everyone is used to algorithms now
It's a crime for how good these videos are. 😆
Too kind. Glad you enjoy.
ikr, it's like some kind of a hidden gem. i seriously hope they get more subs and keep making these well informed and entertaining vids, especially as we're about to enter a crazy era of unstoppable change
@@Synapse.Official I'd like to get to know more about you Is there a way that I can get in contact?
just missing 4k quality....
Yes, I think you are right about this - but only for these companies that are starting without a specific product. The issue is that they are trying to be a platform that is funded through users of their API... but they are renting the same servers that any business could run an open source model on. And they obviously need to add their own markup.
From the perspective of any business, it is worth it to shop around - and you're going to get the best bang for your buck either going with OpenAI or hosting on a server yourself with an open source model (I'm not saying I know for sure what makes the most sense financially - but my point is that their value proposition is not productized and - thus - for their could be b2b customers... they are commoditized).
This is why you will see much more profitable companies just repurposing and repackaging these chatbots for other purposes. They are delivering a solution and thus get a margin.
Great points. The business model has to be ironed out or the money is going to run out for a lot of these companies. Thanks for watching.
If there's anything i learned from being in the VR space is that if a new overhyped thing doesn't immediately become the biggest thing ever then the industry will instantly call it "dead". Also considering this is right after VR i can't not see that pattern repeating
"They're lucky that Amazon doesn't run on mafia rules." Oh, sweet child...
Also, imagine the pure detachment, of proposing an AI, a machine, to promote "emotional support", in a world with 7 billion people...and thinking you are fixing a problem, rather than being a part of it.
Why do all those people have no emotional support? Could it be that they are slaving away in the name of "economic growth", working on a new AI that will make people feel less detached and alone, and burning out on those projects, being incapable of maintaining simple inter-human relationships due to stress and energy drain at work?
...Entire video is giving made by AI vibes, ironic.
Iconic, even
You mean the imagery they use or the writing? I find the writing pretty decent with clear chains of logic and deep understanding, not AI-esque at all
A human made the video, too much effort for a "Made by AI" vid
I don't know when the bubble is going to pop, but I feel like people want to be optimistic about it for another half a year.
Enthusiasm will die off when marketing and lying CEOs can no longer attract investors and stocks plummet
@@Titere05 I'm told there's a bunch of stupid people with money living in silicon valley. So, whenever they run out of money I guess, but it seems to be a self sustainable ecosystem of parasites. Where they mostly take blood from each other and need a little from the government and everywhere else.
So it's really hard to say, if theranos couldn't knock some sense into people then I don't know what will. Nvidia is still selling their AI chips and breaking records.
I swear almost every video talking about Ai in a neutral or positive tone got TTS voice over narrations for their videos.
Nope we have a real human narrator.
Yeah, it’s definitely a human. You can actually hear a bit of microphone pop if you listen close enough. Also modern TTS just sounds too perfect. It never has to catch its breath.
I love the unique art style for this channel. But please for the love of everything, use in-video citations and a bibliography so i can chase up sources for further research.
Interesting idea. Thanks for sharing.
There is huge opportunity in AI however it needs to be well regulated - which it isn't. It's no crypto, there is certainly value to AI - like assisting doctors with diagnosis, protein folding simulations/drug development, assisting gov bodies detecting tax avoidance, cameras on construction sites helping to avoid injury, warehouse robots, self driving transit (preferably public), etc
But who owns the data? Where does the data come from? Is it fair for megacorps to force users to be used to train AI without compensation? etc
Great points and thanks for adding.
So many things to consider when it comes to the growth and regulation of AI.
You’re thinking waaaay too small
Dude thinks the people that pay off the government officials are going to let them step in and stop the data harvesting and selling they have been doing for decades now. Funny stuff.
Assisting is the keyword for many of the current applications, not solving.
I feel that AI is the one thing that almost everyone is looking to fail. I hope that everyone wants it to fail
I work for an agency that has been around for 30 years and we do creative, copy and code. AI is changing everything for our business and businesses like ours. We do work for the Fortune 500 that is critical to their operations. It has impacted every role at our company. The meta verse was a bubble, sure, but this is practically useful and a daily driver for exceptionally valuable work.
The inefficiency of machine learning is mind boggling. Most people can't even comprehend how wasteful it is.
the self driving technology are a prefect example to illustrate the problem: people say we are at 97% to 99% of a fully and reliable self-driving system, however, to finally get the last 1%, it could cost up to a million, a billion or even more in terms of effort and resources than the previous full 99%.
This is a well know and real phenomena. Just like in modern game development: the last 2-10% of the game is what takes more effort and what actually makes the difference and why many failed and games are shipped in a broken state: it reaches to a point where they come to the conclusion that it's just not worthed.
This is what all these general AI systems are: a 98% product that will never get there. So many years of image generation and they can't still solve the +5 fingers problem.
but they did solve the 5 finger problem....
Bruh what are you talking about? The 5 finger problem was resolved 9 months ago 😂😂
Also we went from horrible AI generated images in 2022 that looked really bad, to perfect images in 2023
Interestingly, the "people" who say we are 97% to 99% there, are the same people who create and market these solutions. Musk, Altman, Huang, etc. If you read any AI specialist, they'll tell you that it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Sounds stupid when you put it this way, but never trust the salesman's opinion about the snake oil he's selling. AI is the new 3D TVs
Up to a million? A million is like a cent in AI development terms. I don’t think you know what you’re talking about
and, competing corporate AIs do not want open source to succeed. RISC-V, Linux... we need open source to save us from corporate tyranny.
I agree, but I’ve been thinking lately: big models right now take big infra to train and to run.
The Mac I’m using at work would cost me 1.5 month salary: it can more or less run a mistral 7b
And pulling a docker image to deploy a container you can then send local requests to is not exactly « consumer-friendly »
Do you know other open source projects where people found a way to democratize infrastructure too ?
Lol that growth goes to the richest not the average american
i hope the lawsuit drags stability to the mud and create a precedent that handycaps all ai companies
“AI is an insult to life itself.”
~Hayao Miyazaki
I've long been looking for somebody doing well-researched and produced content in AI, but all I ever found was AI hype channels. Well until now! I think the channel will blow up soon, because damn this is so refreshing to watch :D
Thanks a ton! Means a lot. So much more to come so welcome aboard.
There’s another interesting one I saw a few days ago regarding diminishing returns based on an in depth study using captured results and extensive testing over lots of subject material. It shows that the effectiveness of results start to diminish when you aim to get more nuanced, less available information, and requires far, far greater inputs of training data than expected.
Makes me think that the AI music hype that’s going on right now will produce good results but it’s not thinking out the box enough and will sound like every other common thing in existence.
The Silicon Valley game is to have an idea, crate some sort of proof of concept, create hype, collect the money and run.
If you want to grow an actual business, monetize it, turn a profit, etc, you have not understood the game.
can one tell me what is not in a bubble right now? looking across the board the markets.
copper maybe
the dollar is a pyramid scheme so everything is a bubble
@@Alice_Fumo gotta invest in that
Not to mention the comic code authority esque regulations that are bound to be put on AI eventually, at least in the art industries.
AGI-level AIs needs computronium(wet or dry) instead of silicon chips for their CPUs
And AGI-type AIs can also make generative algorithms obsolete
Dude everyone knows wet computronium is a myth, because the isotope vibranium-256 becomes unstable when in a moist environment
The consumers were never on board 😬
Unlike other bubbles they didn’t prey on things we need to live like houses, only our jobs are on the line
The biggest reason why it's difficult to monitize AIs is they're neither cheap and fast enough for a normal consumers nor they're reliable enough to be used at a professional scale, but I still think that learning something with the help of chatbots like chatgpt is by far one of the most efficient option whether it's documentation, or any concept so we may see a boom in education industry when it comes to AI.
As much as I'd like AI to fail - is this really a failure of AI? Or is it just a failure of companies that are not Microsoft, OpenAI, Google or Amazon?
Even if 40% of what theyre saying is hype, whatever well get in the next few years will change society forever. I dont even think we need AGI to have massive change.
Great point. The trajectory is staggering. The business model just needs to be ironed out for some of these startups.
Agree
I don’t agree with this vision. AI is yet to prove its effectiveness in any space whatsoever. It alucinantes all the time, it still saying things totally wrong in a super confident way. LLMs are tools of language, not tools of reasoning and intelligence. I can see them being used as accessibility tool to interact with technology and to help summarize and translate in a more effective and fast way but saying that this will change humanity is like saying google translate will change humanity. We are overstating the impact of current LLMs. Next gen AI will take decades so we’ll be stuck with transformers for a long time…
Interesting. Thanks for adding. Funny idea to think we're somewhere between google translate and AGI. Where we are on that spectrum is a fantastic debate.
@@absint0o so lets say we take the self driving model as an example. Theyve been saying full self driving is right down the corner for the past 10 years almost, yet we still havent gotten to level 5 self driving, though 98% of the technology is there. If we get 98% to agi, even 90%, society will change. The economy, relationships, culture, entertainment etc.. all of these things will be massively effected. I dont think we need AGI for mass change.
Shit companies in my country that already treat engineers like slaves have halted hiring waiting for the next AI to replace them and then they don't have to worry with us slaves. I am not a great programmer and there are great programmers looking for jobs atm. The last interview I was told by a startup ceo they would have hired me in normal conditions but they have more experienced people willing to work at lower cost to company.
Me being a dropout doesn't help because I can't even get any other job because everyone in my country is a graduate[no knowledge just a paper] which is why I dropped out, BIG MISTAKE.
The future of AI is iterative.
This
Tiny iterations on the front end for hundreds of billions on the backend
Lol, I see what you did there ;)
i like my iterations in a recursive approach 💅
You said it boi 💪
McDonald’s had an AI cheeseburger that could talk in the 1980’s. Not sure what all the fuss is about.
I don't know how this will ever stop, the bubble of investment might pop but the sky is the limit for how far this could go.
I’ve been trying to utilize LLMs for simple repetitive tasks in order to create datasets - think an excel spreadsheet and having AI fill in a summary or keyword column and sentiment. I give it a set of keywords and it does fine for a while then starts adding new keywords or topics that I don’t want. Likewise it gets 80 percent of python code right which does save me time but is also far below the expected capability of AI especially where I’m just building out a notebook one function at a time.
Super high quality presentation, analysis and experience
Glad you enjoy. Thanks for watching!
My main problem with all this AI stuff is that it seems like there is no end goal. So these companies could come out on the other side and make money? how? Are they just going to save money? If they make money somehow doing something would it be more than just doing that thing in the first place? I can understand in medical fields being able to try millions of different tests I guess. Idk I’m not a scientist. But like other businesses, how do they “make more money”? Will people just save time, then that save the business money? Does that amount saved even justify all the money spent?
Such a nice surprise this video… some new insider’s info (at least for me), grounded on reality, not too judgmental… pretty good
Thanks for watching!
The moment a tech company shows corporate customers that their AI solution halfs their employee's workload we are in for the golden age. But until now the hurdle was that the companies who willingly make contact with AI are all just service providers themselves and not corporate production companies like e.g. a automobile manufacturer. And since we are still in inflation in large parts of the West the production companies all calculate way too conservative to fund "AI experiments" in their workforce. And add to that the liable - if the stuff the AI generates for the worker, which makes them faster, is actually probably "plagiarized" from what the same AI told another company, we are in a hell of a wave of litigations over partially AI generated products. In short: AI didn't arrive at the conveyor belt yet. And I only really see and experience Amazon fighting to get AI to the conveyor belt.
No dude, just no. The reason half the workforce hasn't been replaced is because AI (our current AI, I mean) is worthless for anything but some particular tasks. It can generate nice images and write a mean article for a blog though. But in case of the article, do fact check it first...
As far as the AI assisting a worker to make them faster, I see some merit in that, BUT, and it's a big but, in my own personal experience coding with the help of an AI, half the time the wrestle with the prompt in order to stop the AI from generating the same faulty code over and over again, is really time consuming, if at all possible. Not to mention I'm using my household's entire energy consumption in a day each time I reprompt. If someone like a lawyer used it, they'd then have to check every source, precedence and quote because you can't trust the veracity of the output. It's maybe as helpful as a sloppy paralegal. Doesn't sound particularly useful to me
I don’t get some comparison in the comments section to NFTs. With AI there is a goal of making some of the mundane tasks faster. I don’t still understand what the purpose of NFT was? It just seemed like it was a vehicle for the rich to pump money into it and create a hype cycle before withdrawing their money out.
Yeah some people in recognizing the hype around ai are going to the other extreme of saying it has no application- obviously it has real applications and implications that anyone who has used it knows.
@@simonsharp3319 Yeah while NFTs was just made after the art world passed new laws that made it harder to do money laundering, and they just attracted some chumps to pretend was a totally legit thing, so was always a scam and a pyramid scheme.
AI I feel is more dangerous and malicious in creation, in these last few years big techs were catch almost monthly getting a lot of money with fake news and now suddenly have vast interest to make stuff that can generate photos of real people? Yeah not buying this was made with any good intentions, in my country is already being used to by politicians and the elite to their own gain and to help spread a lot of fake news, and a big magazine was catch using AI text to generate health tips and some of these tips would just poison the person.
The comparisson is in the hype, the economic bubble, the fake promises, the scams that are forming and so on. Just because you see a use for companies in AI doesnt mean its not the same "tech hype" like we have seen in the past with cryptos, metaverses, NFTs and now AIs, like they all belong to the same corporate tech word salad.
We are transitioning from the Internet Era to the A.I. Era.
These videos are just coping mechanisms. Come back in 5 years and laugh at my ignorance
How funny is when you say someone is “thousand times richer now” - when he basically works his whole life for food, shelter and transportation (one car) - wasn’t the same like 100 years ago?
But you do realise, right? that you can eat like a king every now and then with foods like steak or bacon, and not just bread and soup everyday? And about shelter? You don't have to go to the fields to shit or piss, or have to squirm in winter like it's your last day and transportation, oh don't even get me on that, you can travel to the other side of the globe within half a grand and that too under a day, even emperors couldn't travel like that despite all the wealth they have,
You may not FEEL rich but the general lifestyle today is comparable to that of nobility just a few hundred years ago, minus the high estates and servants probably
It was obvious from the start. All it takes is understanding how LLMs work to see the bubble and that they're not worth much. Yes, it can be used in a few cases, at the expense of a tremendous amount of energy, but people are making a fuss out of very little. Time to cool down and come back to one's senses.
Absolutely love your aesthetic choices for the channel btw
Much appreciated! Thanks for watching.
Ridiculous. Of all the tedious, dangerous, repetitive and necessary jobs out there they try to artificially automate human resources?
This is why people have a reactionary dislike for art. Intelligence. These companies seem sinister
Only a completely dysfunctional system (the corporatocracy dominated by near-monopolies most of us live in) can explain the existence of these baffling companies.
As much as I agree that there might be a bubble in AI, basing such argument on two failed companies is a massive stretch. Especially that the so-called investors have loads of cash to burn through and two failures do not make much difference.
Fair. The question is, are they a symptom of a larger business model issue for generative AI or mishaps independent of the larger industry.
We don’t have an answer, but that’s what we wanted to explore.
@@Synapse.Official we will see. But now a lot of companies are failing.
You should do a video Are LLMs the NFTs of 2024?
Thats a pretty insane take
Not even close. They are useful for some limited use cases the issue is those use cases don't generate massive revenue. I use them everyday to save a bit of time with coding but I won't be paying significant money to retain access.
Consider why these compensation packages are so huge. The goal is to pay people truckloads of cash to have them develop models that will ultimately replace them. So they may be paying someone 10x what they are worth, but once their job is made redundant they will earn 100x not needing them.
We’re all worrying about whether generative AI is overstating its capabilities, where what we SHOULD be worried about is how easily humans can be simulated because we’re not as smart and sophisticated as we think we are.
Only people who are in r/Atheism are smart and sophisticated
this is actually so wrong
If it was that easy, they would have created reliable, safe self driving cars years ago.
@@nk-cn9sv no, we’re dumber than we think we are. You know how much of the world is kept running by just phoning shit in? Almost all of it. There’s like 10k really smart people in every discipline working on really hard problems and the rest of us are just regurgitating their work.
Generative AI is just a new way to build these hacked together ideas.
We have yet to train a self-driving car for long enough to earn its drivers license. We expect a car to learn in months something that takes a decade and a half of pre-work to prompt? Seems silly.
We haven’t had power or instruction capacity for all that long to make that kind of progress. Complex adaptive systems take time to build and adapt. The intelligence isn’t the problem, it’s the time horizon.
Internet Computer Protocol is the only fully onchain AI compute solution at the moment. Most people arw unaware and still gravitate to centralised cloud solutions
Amazing, This is top notch and ridiculously good. Holy crap. you've got a new fan I'll see you next video.
Thank you! Hope we can keep delivering 👍
It sounds like bad management for AI companies and eager investors not knowing what they are doing. I'm sure people will lose a lot of money but AI will continue to be a powerhouse of the future despite a few companies dropping out and some investors getting scared, they will return quickly though.
I’m in the bubble. There’s no end of this. AI inevitable.
Bubble boy?
Kim Dotcom, is that you? ;-)
then Homelessness is inevitable as well, you better get used to sleeping on concrete
and drinking water from sewer.
because AI will be Automated like an Assembly line,
why would companies use AI, only to let people to operate it?
in the Age of AI, only AI and people with Phd that will survive.
everyone else will become a collateral damage, because they're not smart enough to be able to compete with AI
Ppl calling bubble don't get it.
@@helge666hey
The biggest hurdle AI will run into is energy. Blue collar jobs that build and manage the infrastructure needed for these…congrats, you have job security.
More efficient energy seems to be one of the big breakthroughs needed for the industry to make the next big leap.
I have an opinion: the AI research is legit. The numerous upshots are not: they will drag down the market by never being economically viable and give A and I an unnecessarily bad reputation. The bubble popping will cause trouble for the BI usage of AI and other sound application.
Interesting. Thanks for adding and watching!
The biggest problem is tech intrinsic: Feedback of results in the original data lake means: Increasing overfitting. Maybe confi biased but I think the results of copilot degraded more and more recently.
This didn't age well over 2 weeks, with GPT-4o release, were still in AI infancy. No way is it popping
ACCELERATE
AI is on an amazing trajectory.
The funding bubble… not so much.
Watch the GPT-5 release later this year. We're not ready.
I suspect the "infancy" assumption isn't quite correct. The saddest truth is - even the good AI engines mostly rely on their large model size and not much else.
Internet companies didn't just pop. Were killed by interest rates. Alan Greenspan said he will destroy the internet then increased interest rates 8 times.
Ai jobloss is the only thing I worry about anymore.
Same. The only use I support is medical AI where it helps detect cancers etc.
A big problem is that they way we talk about AI when we talk about these things is confusing. When people hear AI they think it means a computer thinking like a human. But that’s not what AI means.
These large language models that has created the latest AI boom are not intelligent in any conventional sense of the word. They analyse patterns in things created by humans and when you give it a part of a pattern as a prompt it can approximate a continuation of that pattern. Personally I think we shouldn’t call this AI because it isn’t. The intelligence we see in the images and text creates by these large language models is human intelligence. It is a intelligent in the same way your reflection is a person. No general purpose artificial intelligence can be built with these no more than your reflection can become an independent person and while there are some good applications for them there are sever limits to this technology that are not widely understood.
Excellent content. Love this channels videos on AI.
Thanks for watching! So appreciated
AI is a massive money pit. None of these investments will ever break even on costs.
haha you are another sucker falling for these fake videos lol - it totally convinced you
Nothing is wrong with AI, it will continue to improve at its own pace. The problem is that the company execs started over-promising regarding their capabilities, for that sweet sweet investor money 🤑.
That was a really informative and well-done presentation. High quality, and I can tell a lot of work went into the video. Thank you.
Thanks for watching and adding!
this will go Viral
It is not popping but it is getting larger. The bubble is not filled with air in this case. It’s filled with a lot of substance.
Here’s why I don’t think AI bubble will pop until it happens unnaturally, like a war or something. I absolutely believe (and we also known) OpenAI are holding back advances. We only know about Sora because they made it public. We know know about Google’s Ai Music model Lyria because they told us they were doing a very limited beta on TH-cam. We know that AI music is incredibly good because audio came out, because ex Google engineers made it. We’ve had a lot of odd stuff come out of Open AI about “worrying” stuff they have created. The point is, they already have a history with holding back technology and needing their own models for the public. We have known for a while that Google has had AI tech for years they held back. This has never been seen before! When have companies in history intentionally held back amazingly powerful technology/products they’ve made? Pretty rare to never I’d say. In fact the only equivalent I’ve seen is in the defense sector and their classified government military programs.
The point is a bubble happens because exuberance outpaces development. But if AI starts to look like a bubble, Open AI can literaly just release some more of their technology! And suddenly it’s on again.
Just don’t forget… it’s not just AI… huge strides have been made in the recent years with Quantum Computing, and that’s going to likely take everyone by surprise as well. Right now, like AI but even more so, most people have no idea what Quantum Computing can actually DO. AI was a total surprise for most people. We had no idea AI could do most of the things it can do, certainly not art, and most definitely not this well, this fast. Sora from OpenAI is absolutely no insane. I’d say the top 3 releases are ChatGPT/ GPT-4, Udio and Sora and the text to speech stuff (which Udio is actually better at btw) All these things are currently the best the public know of. What will Quantum Computing be able to do? We know it will be able to do a lot, we just don’t know exactly what it will mean.
And now imagine what the emergent technologies and advances that come from AI + Quantum Computing.
This Bubble won’t pop if these companies don’t want it to, and they make even let it! To choose to ALLOW the AI Bubble to pop, to hold back competition with less funding, maybe with the opportunity to be able to buy other companies out at a huge discount. Then when they choose to, release some next major advance they had the whole time.
This rocks. Thanks for watching and sharing.
when everybody is rich, nobody is rich.
We define wealth as having more stuff and not having to do anything. The problem with that is, we are subcontracting our life to computers. Human life is defined as doing human things for ourselves... like gathering food, having sex, going to the bathroom. Could it be called "richer" if we simply direct machines to do all this for us. Or instead of reading a novel, simply implanting the knowledge that we have read the book into our brain. What about, working hard and towards being happy, simply swallow some drugs. Not going to the gym to become fit, just take some pills and overnight you look like Arnold some 40 years ago .
Life is doing things for yourself, trying hard and failing sometimes and sometimes succeeding. AI is just the beginning of a trend to make life irrelevant.
The meaning of life is to have fun doing it. Writing computer programs is great fun, using them at best is a necessity.
We are far beyond the necessity of making our life more pleasant using technology.
Asking "is the AI bubble dead?" is like asking "is the electricity bubble dead?". This video will fell really stupid in 3 years.
I didn't know how much AI talent are highly valued, I should watch some more news now on.
Slap an AI on your LinkedIn bio and watch the money pour in… right??
@@Synapse.Official good idea 👍
everyone is frothing at the mouth to have a slice of the pie, but we all know that in the end only a handful of companies will survive
Interesting. Falls in line with the dot-com era outcomes.
This is how the VC model works nothing new
Google is just the best example of this right now. They've closed AI projects down for maintenance how many times now because it gave absolutely skewed answers that made no sense?
If they don't close down AI overview soon, someone's gonna find a way to give them a lawsuit over the "answer" they get.
The hype hasn't even taken off. This summer as OpenAI's agents become available, the C-suite leaders will go bananas for operative AI.
A popping ballon is the wrong metaphor to describe the development of AI