Belmont Stakes 2024 Final Analysis: Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Resilience
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 มิ.ย. 2024
- In this horse racing handicapping video recorded on 6-6-24, Jarrod Horak takes a final look at the 2024 Belmont Stakes and gives out his top pick and live longshot.
#belmontstakes field - 1 - Seize the Grey (8-1), 2 - Resilience (10-1), 3 - Mystik Dan (5-1), 4 - The Wine Steward (15-1), 5 - Antiquarian (12-1), 6 - Dornoch (15-1), 7 - Protective (20-1), 8 - Honor Marie (12-1), 9 - Sierra Leone (9-5), 10 - Mindframe (7-2)
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#preakness 2024 final order of finish: 1st - Seize the Grey, 2nd - Mystik Dan, 3rd - Catching Freedom, 4th - Tuscan Gold, 5th - Just Steel, 6th - Uncle Heavy, 7th - Imagination, 8th - Mugatu. Morning line favorite Muth scratched.
Kentucky Derby 2024 final order of finish: Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Catching Freedom, T O Password, Resilience, Stronghold, Honor Marie, Endlessly, Dornoch, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Domestic Product, Epic Ride, Fierceness, Society Man, Just Steel, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch
The 2024 #kyderby was the 12th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4, and Mystik Dan nipped Sierra Leone by a nose, with Forever Young another nose back in third. Catching Freedom and T O Password completed the Super High 5.
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You sold me on resilience Jarrod. I’ll include him in my tickets!!! Mindframe for the win!!
Resilience is interesting at a price. He should be in a good spot throughout and might be there at the end if he handles the mile and a quarter. Mindframe is all upside.
Thanks Jarrod
Congrat's on 5K! You should have double that IMHO. I for one never bet a race without your analysis. So thanks for all your efforts.
At this point, I'm liking 9, 10, and 2. I see how you mean 3 maybe peaked already, surely won't have fresh legs. Probably have to use 1 as well in the mix. I haven't been a fan of Honor Marie or Dornoch, and the 7 is just too green. Good luck everyone!
It is tough to get people to subscribe, but the channel continues to grow and I can keep doing more and more as long as interest picks up.
We have a nice mix of proven Triple Crown Series performers and fresh horses.
STG is training like a MONSTER. STG won off the pace in the Pat Day. That would be his best chance here. His dad dominated the Travers at Saratoga
Seize the Grey is a good story after his surprising Preakness win. If he does it again, he will be the leader of the division, but he will need to run the race of his life to beat Sierra Leone. The Derby runner-up beat the Preakness winner by 10 lengths in the Blue Grass.
@JarrodHorak that race is really a toss at this point. Torres was not on him that day and Saratoga isn't the easiest track for deep closers. SL came up just short in the derby. Could happen again
@@JarrodHorak His two worst races were run at Keeneland, which he clearly did not like
@@josephwoolfson7833 If he duplicates his Preakness, he is a contender. If he does not, he will probably finish up the track. When we get to this high Grade 1 level, multiple horses are capable of winning depending on the circumstances. He is not for me, but I would not be shocked if he ran a good race.
@@bnegs521 Seize the Grey is better now but until he beat Sierra Leone on the track, I have to give the latter the edge.
Great info! Congrats on channel milestones.
Thank you.
Changing the jockey and bit will subtract from this horse but should still place behind beast, Mindframe!
We just do not know what the bit change and rider switch will bring. I really think all of this is blown out of proportion because it happened in the Derby. These changes happen all the time in horse racing but it rarely makes the news. If Sierra Leone runs his best race, he should win. Mindframe has a ton of raw ability and is being thrown into a very difficult spot. We will see if he is up to the task.
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*STGs sire had great mud stats. That may have helped him in the Preakness.! Anyway..great analysis! I dont wager on triple cown races without watching Jarrod. He is great.
I am usually skeptical of sharp wet track winners on the front end. They frequently get hyped up and do not usually back up their big wins.
I had Mystik Dan in the Derby and Seize the Grey in the preakness these horses are good i like Sierra Leone but i think Dornoch will be a win candidate
Good luck in your quest to pick all three winners in the 2024 Triple Crown Series races.
Be careful of Sierra Leone getting caught on the outside with Honor Marie, Resilience, Antiquarian, and maybe the Wine Steward. If there is a lot of bumping, that may slow him down. I would not be surprised if the inside horses like STG, MD, and Dornoch has the advantage. I have watched all the races of these horses, and I can visualize the race in my head. Mind Frame is a wild card. I agree with Jarrod, I am not sure he is ready for this.
I am not worried about Sierra Leone's outside post and possible trip. That is out of our hands as bettors. I trust Flavien Prat to make the right moves. He is a quality rider and knows what he is doing. As for Mindframe, he has unlimited potential but lacks seasoning. I would not be surprised if he ran a big race or finished up the track.
I really like Resilience and believe Seize the Grey is just getting started. I’m partial to a 1,2 exacta box.
I can see a scenario where Seize the Grey makes the lead and Resilience saves ground chasing the pace. They should both be prominent from the outset.
I think I'll try a10.00 tri 9with2,10with field.thank you for your value opinion I appreciate it greatly. Who's going to stick Sierra Leone in second, probably his race to win.
Sierra Leone appears to be coming up to a quality effort, and his best race is probably enough to beat this group. Resilience and Mindframe are both live contenders.
SL is a Bit of a Hanger in My Opinion and He Certainly is Not a "Freight Train" as Some People Labeled Him...He is More of a Grinder....I Dont Expect Him to Run Down Any Legit Horse Who Has Some Energy Saved For Stretch Run.....He Needs Pace or He Will Not Get There...Very Nice Expensive Horse But Probably Overrated....He Might be Catching a Few Tired Top Contenders Though
Jarrod, what happened to your sidekick? I think his name was Brian. Hope he's okay!
I have not had a sidekick in these videos on my channel. I sometimes did videos with others at HRN back in the day.
if u toss the Ky Derby with the dreaded 1 post and look at his other races Dornoch never really quit any race.. easier after the fact. i tossed him also
He was tough to come up with. His 2-year-old form was solid but his speed ratings were mediocre, and Sierra Leone handled him with ease in the Blue Grass and Ky Derby. I did not see this coming at all.
@@JarrodHorak Sierra/Leone and Mindframe being all over the track sure helped... that lugging in by SL is insane every race
@@italianwaterice9594 I just think he will always do that. They have tried everything (blinkers. cage bit, new rider). They just need to live with it and make sure he does not bother other horses. I don't think that cost him the race today. It was a combination of things (stumbling start, bounced around early, speed favoring track, got going too late). He was the only closer making up any serious ground.
Why u say Mystic dan may not get a mile and quarter when he did already in the derby ? Do u not know this race is same distance at Saratoga, and won't be Mike and half
I said Mystik Dan did not excel at 1 1/4 miles. I said he was able to just last at 1/14 miles in the Derby because he saved all the ground. He barely lasted, and if he did not have an inner post and ground saving trip, he would not have won. A 20-horse field and troubled trips by other entrants also helped his cause. He cut back to 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness and was hardly full of energy late when just saving the place. The Belmont is his 6th start of the year and third start in five weeks, and all of those factors are why I believe a fresh Sierra Leone can turn the tables on him in this shorter field at a mile and a quarter.
you dont see the Irad/Pletcher combo too often,, thats the only horse i see that may give sierra leone trouble/ mindframe
Mindframe is dangerous in this race. I am concerned about just two starts, but he has a ton of ability.
Carrying 8 more pounds, no lasix going further than ever.
@@bnegs521 Special horses can overcome issues like that. He is the real deal if he wins this.
@JarrodHorak if he wins this yes. I'm having deja vu to INTREPID HEART it's hurting my brain.
@@bnegs521 I remember Intrepid Heart. He ended up having a decent career with 9 wins but never really became the stakes horse they were hoping for,
Protective for the Win 🏆 Bloodlines
I can see him hitting the board. I am including him in some trifectas and supers.
2 days ago - Equibase showed a video - "Pletcher is just 1/83 in Saratoga stakes races over the past 10 years with horses that are 10-1 or higher morning line". ***Who knows if that trend will hold....but if it does, that means toss Antiquarian & Protective. I do think both those are must for underlays at 2nd, 3rd and 4th. But who knows...I've seen some huge Longshots win the Belmont over the last 25 yrs. I think #2 or 9 will win.
@@roblegg3983 That is interesting. That stats definitely shows that his longshots are not live in the big races at Saratoga.
@roblegg3983 Oh Great., LOL
Another rough trip for Sierra Leone. Track wasn't really playing to his style, but he always runs at the end anyway. Just hard to trust him for the win at this point. It was disappointing.
Such a disappointing Triple Crown Series this year. You could run these races 100 times and not come up with the three 2024 race winners very often. Very strange year.
I don't pay anybody for any pics. lose my money ,have 20 more bux. to bet. 😂
Seize the gray will win the Belmont Stakes
He is a contender on the pace if he is able to duplicate his wet track surprise in the Preakness.
@@JarrodHorakMystik dan does not have the closing power and speed like Sierra Leone.
I do however think STG has improved big time and has a good shot to end up top 3 probably 3rd.
@@cosmicbro1973 I agree that Seize the Grey has improved. How much did the wet, speed favoring track and easy front running trip have to do with his Preakness performance? How will he handle his third start in five weeks and 6th start of the year against some fresher rivals? There is just no way of knowing for sure.There is a chance that he is getting good at the right time and will just go out there and run another big race.
gray was going backwards down the stretch
@@buyystocks Where was mystik dan 😆
Sierra lost because protective was waiting for him on the outside so that he could illegally push him and bump him as far out as possible. It was crazy to see live I’m surprised more people haven’t mentioned this yet.
I don’t follow those performance charts at all. Not what I’ve seen in the past.
everybody picking Leone to win. not worth betting. unless like 1/1 money. say less with wise guys pounding money on him to win..overbet horse😂
Jerod don't let your bias warp your mind look at the numbers Sierra is not the fastest horse, take a look at Mindframes numbers.
I am talking about performance ratings not final time ratings. Also, you cannot take numbers at face value. You have to evaluate how they earned the numbers and consider the class of the races. Mindframe ran fast in his maiden sprint bow (0) and not as fast second time out in an optional claiming race (4). Sierra Leone got back-to-back 1's on the sheets in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. He is much better prepared to compete in a high level Grade 1, or at least it appears that way.
Let there be no doubt that Mindframe is a talented horse with a ton of upside. I am including him in multiple wagers on Saturday. Can he win the Belmont? No doubt, but he could also finish up the track due to his lack of experience. If you watched my Today's Racing Digest pace and speed rating video, I clearly stated that Mindframe was one of the faster horses on the numbers.
@@JarrodHorak But you said Sierra is the fastest horse with no specifications.
@@joecastanon2479 We could have a discussion about the fastest horse in the race and different people will cite speed ratings from various sources showing that their preferred contender is the fastest. I happen to think that performance ratings mean much more than final time ratings.
Trying to figure out which horse is going to run the fastest race on Saturday is the goal.
If you think Mindframe is the fastest horse and is going to win the Belmont Stakes, bet him. I am not going to sit here and knock his raw ability. It would be a great accomplishment if he jumped up and won the final leg of the Triple Crown in his stakes debut and third lifetime start after starting his career on March 30.