Byran thanks for taking the time for this thorough explanation. You certainly show the power of the DP. As with most of your HCS strategies, this explanation is a great talking point. You know I play very similarly!
DP certainly not the most popular bet at the table, but can be very effective on a cold and spotty table. I rarely play the DP, but when needed, I do play it. It is all about understanding the table dynamics and ultimately putting yourself in the best position to profit. Thank you for sharing!
Hey Bryan, I like this strategy. In the long run, you'll lose less, if nothing else. Beau Parker once said about the Don'ts, it's not about how much you win, but how much you don't lose. ☺
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Crazy!! I play in Atlantic city. My last year has been on such a downward shift. Big red is killer!! Couldn't seem to beat it. On the way out last visit, switched to Red because i was mad! lol Came home found your vid. Went to CT sun executing your 24-7 . I left the green like i accomplished something. Walk away refreshed as there is light on the red!! Now back to play 4 and 10 or 9 to 5!!! Lets Go!!
Excellent, explanation,, I was at Foxwoods last week full table every shooter before me established the point and either rolled once or twice after that or sevened out immediately, i was playing 110 inside and was out 660.00 before the dice got to me ,,, i am now leaning to DP and this explanation has convinced me it is the way to go...
Money Shot, when you throw do you ever play the Dont and then set for Red when you are set up on a point? Have your crew ever played all dark side with all the 7 or off axis sets?
For another “score board,” I encourage every dice bettor to read and thoroughly digest the contents of these three books: 1.) “Winning Casino Craps” by Edwin Silberstang, 2.) “Scarne On Dice” by John Scarne, and 3.) “The Dice Doctor” by Sam Grafstein. For a second tier, I can wholeheartedly recommend 4.) “The Gambling Times Guide to Craps” by N.B. Winkless, 5.) “Conquering Casino Craps” by John Gollehon, 6.) “The Ultimate Dice Book” by Mike McGuire, 7.) “Craps Play Optimizer,” by Gary Collopy, and 8.) “Your Best Bet” by Mike Goodman.
That 44% is calculated on the come out roll which on a $30 don't pass you can place a small $5 any 7 now your on the Don't pass which is around a 57% - -64% advantage
earlier tonight dice were hot people were shooting good then things turned. I rolled 4 points then I kept crapping out. Me and 2 others kept betting DP even when we were rolling and we were on fire trying to get 7s after our point was established. We did hella good I’m gonna try that again when tables turn cold.
My strategy is to 'Win-on-every-seven'. Lay all the numbers on the come-out only $30-30-30-30-30-30 to win $120 on the seven (NOTE: this is best played on bubble craps to avoid being a pain-in-the-ass for the dealer) with a DP of $60. You are guaranteed to lose $30 on the established point but you then have an established DP bet in your favor that will re-coop your loss and more on a seven-out. Hence, I call this the "WIN-on-every-seven" strategy. I welcome comments/feedback.
DP all depends on the come out roll. You had better hope the shooter doesn't hit a 7 or 11 on the come out. I was curious about the percentage of shooters who make their first point which is around 44% which gives you a 46% chance. I would never do it against an experienced shooter but most bad shooters it is a good strategy.
There is no good shooter. It's all percentage and probability everytime you roll. The odds catch up to everyone. Some people seem lucky when you are there, but you can bet they were not so lucky when you were not there.
This is a great strategy. The only disagreement I have concerns myself. Every damn time I lay the 4 or 10, I get wacked. It's beyond a joke or funny oddity. Lay $100 on the 10 and boom! Shooter rolls a ten, I lose. Odds of hitting a 10 twice in a row are less than 5%. So I press it and lay $200 on the 10. Yup, first roll and shooter hits the 10. Again. The odds of hitting 10 three times in a row are less than 1/2 of 1%. So I use my head and lay $600 on the 10 in order to recoup my losses. Shooter rolls and....you guessed it, dice hit the 10. Again. What do I do? Change to the 4 and lay it. Same results. I'm beyond jinxed. What do I do? Decide using the 4 and 10 in my favor and place money on them. Before a 4 or 10 is rolled the 7 hits and I've lost that too. Telling ya, it's beyond crazy and frustrating. For me, I'm better to play the DP come out roll naked. I lose a lot less than hedging or laying.
Wassup MS I thought I was watching Big AZ for a Min. Lol What about if you lay the number That's stablish and martingale 3 times on average players would hit 1or2 comeout numbers if they hit anything at all. This is Perfect for the Cal Bouncy Table
I agree with your analogy! The Don't pass is the best bet on the table! The only thing good about the passline is comeout 7s and 11s ! After that it ain't worth 2 cents!
This is great logic for betting on random shooters. Your gonna get KILLED if an actual shooter gets the dice. Hell, I've killed MYSELF (financially) trying to ride the DP. STILL, this is great advice for the average player.
My go to best bet is offset Doey-Dont ex. $25 table I play for $5. Pass $30 Dont $25 come out 7 net $5. If point is 4/10 DP odds $20 net $5 for 6/8 let it ride or add Pass odds and 5/9 I play trend.
Would love to see you do a video doing a Don't Pass bet for 1 unit only after you see a shooter make 3 consecutive points. Go dark after the 3rd hit then double the DP until you hit a 2 or 3 on the come out or they 7 out. Keep up the great work brother 🤙
What you say is true plus if a shooter does make a pass the odds go way down he will make two in a row.,.and three in a row? That gets real scarce. However..anything can happen in a regular session. Wizard of odds is talking thousands of rolls. You could lose all ten bets right in a row in a session.
That's true but that is that rare unicorn. That would like that shooter making a six point fire bet which doesn't happen often. Under normal circumstances the DP should come out ahead.
DP is ok but I’ve gotten killed on it many times just like I have playing light side. The positive about light side is one hot roller can make up for the previous 5 short rollers. So it’s almost like picking how you would like to try and win that day.
You can make it pass hot rollers on DP $25 don't pass $5 Any 7 Hot shooters typically are really just hitting a lot of Come out 7 & 11's If you set a stop limit of 2 per shooter and you only lose on one come out 7 and one shooter hits point you lose $35.. But on average shooter I'm going to say 6 to 7 out of 10 don't make there point ..
@CC its why I always say only let a shooter burn you twice while on the DP. If you have a hot shooter, don't use the DP and then move back into the darkside before the hand resolves with the 7!
Yeah but as wise man once said ( and a craps expert BTW) you never know it was a hot lol until after it is over. Betting on the dark side is the only way.
my problem has never been the come out roll which is scary ive seen a 7 thrown 6 times in a row!!!! but my problem is people hit 4/9/10 yet they hit these numbers it just made me feel im the unluckiest mofo on the planet ive had great success on playing 6/8
The scoreboard is all good and theoretically tells the story but try and roll it out a couple hundred times and see how it turns out…..it won’t always be the same…..whether you’re on the passline or the DP any hedges will always take away from your wins
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters I’m not really a “hedge” guy…..like you said if the dice beat me “I’ll take my lickins like a man”….in the end it’s all up to how the dice roll…..and again like you always say “may the dice be nice” which ever side your chips are on. Your videos have great content Bryan…..keep um coming 🤙🏽
@@googsfive-0318 yeah sometimes you just know that hedge is not necessary. So just play the DP strait up - if you lose 50 on the line to me that is like PSO when placing the box numbers. so 🤷♂️🤸♂️💯 ;) pick your passion or poison??? :D sometimes I go with 55DP $4 for the yo and $1 for the 12 (only sometimes). The 7 only comes out 16.66667% of time.
12:00 In the example here, you had already taken away the losses and then paid only $55 on the $75 win on the $5 7-hop example. A comeout 7 would pay; +75 hop7 -16 losing hops -55 Dont = +$4. When a comeout box number does show, you coughed up $21 to get your big $55 Dont out there on a number. That's way too many points to pay for that privilege. If you're going to hop Red, try a pre-planned progression with a bet limit and keep it separate from your Pass/Dont game. Hopping bets are a different animal and require a different approach. The real advantage of the lay $130 over the 7 hopping hedge is that you have the flexibility to lay the coldest box number. When laying $130 on the 4, keep track of the frequency of Little Joe hits, it could get hot and blow up in your face.
My opinion is ditch the world bet. Bet the lay bet of the 5 or 9 for say $75+2vig or $90+2(or 3)vig instead of no 4 or 10 UNTIL A pt. is established then remove. Also, ditch the $5 on yo..only bet $3, and only hop 2 of the sevens instead of all 3.//$5 yo's will kill your bankroll, the world bet and that extra hop seven. Saving money is making money. The no 5 or no 9 pays far better than no 4 or 10, mathematically its not even close and you're only risking 2 more combinations to earn 16.6666% MORE if the 7 shows on the comeout.( 8 combos 4/10 each) (10 combos 5/9 each)....18...SEVENS!/// when a number is established OVER A LONG TIME. on 4 or 10 you'll win 69.2308% of them(even money payout)/// 5 or 9 you'll win 64.2870% of them/// 6 or 8 you'll win 58.0645%..the don't pass has a distinct advantage over pass after a point is established. Problem is 7 and 11 will destroy the wrong bettor over time, that's why you CAN NOT BET DP EXCLUSIVELY. There are 'secrets' to adjust for this. Btw, if the casino paid the don't pass on the 12....eventually they'd have to lock the doors on the joint, yes you read it right.🤭
I agree it's the best bet on the craps table....but with one caveat. In the long run it favors the house because they have money and time to outlast most gamblers. You, as an individual, are subject to the short-game with your limited bankroll and time, where anything can happen. If you get in on the action when the table gets hot, the strategy backfires. You don't have the financial strength and backing to outlast the casino. You will win in the long run with the DP bet, but you need the resources to withstand the whipsaw effects that happen in the short-game, even with hedging.
Jacob from wager me this has a dp strategy I would try if I was to move there. Buy-in for ten thousand, start with $100 on the dp using a martingale for every loss with the daily goal being $500 profit and walk away. It’s a boring strategy but I believe a successful one
A hot shooter will kill your martingale, so follow HCS's advice & stay off the DP with the 2nd loss. That is when I play the pass line, & hope for a monster roll with an iron cross.
The "Dont Pass" is only mathematically slightly better that the "Pass" line bet, that doesn't make it the best bet because the dice have to go your way. How many times have you seen a dont better get hammered while you rake in chips ? Your last live video somebody rolled 7 like 5 times in a row, that "Best bet" cost you dearly...
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters I was just responding to the title of your video, "why the don't pass is the best bet" and of course you can't make a dont bet after the come out.
Look there are 3 axis on 2 dice always...which means all you can possibly get on 1 throw is one in 96. any possible set up with 2 tops on a square..a square has 4 distinct different sides.....when every top number you see technically will show a top result of ONE in 16(4 X 4= 16) the same outcome combo's of ONE in 576.(SIX SIDES to a sq.. .2 sq's is 6 TIMES 96....576 combos.That is the most possible setups 2 dice will show 1 setup of 576 throws.Therefore in 96 ROLLS there should be 18 Sevens,....13-- 6's...13--8's. only 10----5's, and 10---9's,.... 4 and 10 should appear 8 times each, a 3 and a 11...should appear "FIVE times: each in 96 rolls. The numbers 2 & 12 should only hit 3 times each in 96 rolls. Betting the don't with a 6 or 8 as the pt. gives you basically a 58% chance of winning, 5 and /or NINE gives the wrong bettor over 64% of winning. Four or ten becomes elusive to the tune of 2.25 to 1... (eight 4's(3 axis ..2 dice..remember) EIGHTEEN SEVENS for all of 8 FOURS and 8 TENS.. It's not fantastic odds and you can't really on that more risk...less reward wager...wagering on the don't side of 5 or 9 is probably the very best wager in the casino[ (a flat even money bet with some additional odds...always..) You can really kill em with NO five or No nine wagers if your timing is half way decent..4 or 5 fives or 9's inside of 20 rolls...you need to bet against one of those.//////18.75% of 96 rolls should be 7's/////.....18 of 96., FIVE and Nine are 10 each in 96. Betting heavy in odds on the 4 and/or ten can get you destroyed in short order...that is laying 2 for 1....
i hate Line bets, they are losers. Pass Line usually loses if you don't catch a 7 or 11 on the CO roll, and loses instantly on the CO when a 2,3 or 12 is rolled. Don't Pass loses about 20% of the time on the CO roll to the 7 and 11, and even when you get past the CO roll, Don't Pass frequently loses to a Point of 6 or 8. I always bypass the Line bets when I play craps, and will only shoot the dice in casinos that allow Doey-Don't betting. Try sticking to Place, Lay and Don't Come bets, with Yo bets as a cheap hedge. Lay bets never stay up for more than one or two rolls.
The exact probability of making a point after the point is established is 40.6% and thus there is a 59.4% probability of not making the point. The relationship is 6 winners on the DNP for 4 losers on the DNP -- It is not 10 to 4 .5 as you show in this video. If you look further into Michaels site you will see where he corrected himself to say what I said above. He said he had the flu and made a mistake.
@@old7PSO what I mean is it will equal out. One point made and one seven out is made by the same shooter. That’s why for shooter 1 through 4 they have both a green chip and a black chip
I agree with concept and I am a strictly Don't Player. I do not hedge or Hop When I play its usually 12 hours a day -- got be there when the table is cold -- I also stop DNP lays after 2 losses -- Table MIn DNP and max odds of 5,6,8,9 - 2X odds on 4,10
Next time don't explain it off the top of your head I understand what your saying but only cause I know craps. A newbie wouldn't understand what the hell your talking about
I love you guys and watch your videos but you really don’t know how to bet the game. I have been playing craps for over 40 years. Study the math of the game
I have never seen so much bullshit. It's just not worth explaining, if people can't understand simple odds then whatever, let them think what they want to.
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Byran thanks for taking the time for this thorough explanation. You certainly show the power of the DP. As with most of your HCS strategies, this explanation is a great talking point. You know I play very similarly!
You’re welcome Jeff.
Thanks Bryan for another great video 🤙🏽
You’re welcome Unko
DP certainly not the most popular bet at the table, but can be very effective on a cold and spotty table. I rarely play the DP, but when needed, I do play it. It is all about understanding the table dynamics and ultimately putting yourself in the best position to profit. Thank you for sharing!
Yes. A DP strategy should be in every Craps players arsenal.
Hey Bryan, I like this strategy. In the long run, you'll lose less, if nothing else. Beau Parker once said about the Don'ts, it's not about how much you win, but how much you don't lose. ☺
Thank you John.
What are your thoughts on a DP, and continuous DC bet until the 7 hits......
You would get killed on a hot shooter
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters But bubble craps is so random and unpredictable with the bounces and sets....
@@darrellq6954 Bubbles can also make a lot of points
I use the Farquad system. $50 pass, $25 dp…..lay odds once point established. Always have 7 working for you.
That’s a great strategy as well. 👍
Is that the same as goin 25 passline right and your not risking 50 on the 12
I needed to win 200 hundred today and played the dark side and guess what I won 300 lol
Awesome
Man! Knock it out of the park today. 3 hrs and never deviated from your strategy.. finally made some money.. 24-7 is badass...
Awesome, love to hear the feedback
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Crazy!! I play in Atlantic city. My last year has been on such a downward shift. Big red is killer!! Couldn't seem to beat it. On the way out last visit, switched to Red because i was mad! lol Came home found your vid. Went to CT sun executing your 24-7 . I left the green like i accomplished something. Walk away refreshed as there is light on the red!! Now back to play 4 and 10 or 9 to 5!!! Lets Go!!
Awesome. Having multiple strategies is a must.@@johnEllwood
Excellent, explanation,, I was at Foxwoods last week full table every shooter before me established the point and either rolled once or twice after that or sevened out immediately, i was playing 110 inside and was out 660.00 before the dice got to me ,,, i am now leaning to DP and this explanation has convinced me it is the way to go...
Heavy says if you don't know how to play the Don't you only know half the game of craps
Money Shot, when you throw do you ever play the Dont and then set for Red when you are set up on a point? Have your crew ever played all dark side with all the 7 or off axis sets?
Never. I would never want to give up the dice just to win a don’t bet.
For another “score board,” I encourage every dice bettor to read and thoroughly digest the contents of these three books:
1.) “Winning Casino Craps”
by Edwin Silberstang,
2.) “Scarne On Dice”
by John Scarne, and
3.) “The Dice Doctor”
by Sam Grafstein.
For a second tier, I can wholeheartedly recommend 4.) “The Gambling Times Guide to Craps” by N.B. Winkless, 5.) “Conquering Casino Craps” by John Gollehon, 6.) “The Ultimate Dice Book” by Mike McGuire, 7.) “Craps Play Optimizer,” by Gary Collopy, and 8.) “Your Best Bet” by Mike Goodman.
I'll check out those books. Thanks
Thanks - I will check the out -- Add "The Perfect Bet" by Adam Kucharski
scarne best of breed
That 44% is calculated on the come out roll which on a $30 don't pass you can place a small $5 any 7 now your on the Don't pass which is around a 57% - -64% advantage
Thank you
What strategy do you play most of the time right now?
It all depends where and who I am playing with.
Instead of laying the 4 or 10 all the time, what are your thoughts on laying the previous point. Wouldn't think those hit very often.
The probability of hitting the inside numbers would be higher.
The dice have no memory.
I like this strategy but can’t really play it when playing with friends and they are not playing DP
Yeah. Gotta have fun. Use it only when appropriate
Find new friends! Lol
@@rockycoates7198 lol
I like your strategy, must say I don’t think I’ve seen you play DP at the Casinos.
Not wise to play DP when you got good shooters right. 👍
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters true dat, you have some shooters in your crew.
@@timwahl9133 we all try our best to make everyone walk away winners.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Any Pair I don't Care :D 🤣🙌
@@timmelton856 👍
earlier tonight dice were hot people were shooting good then things turned. I rolled 4 points then I kept crapping out. Me and 2 others kept betting DP even when we were rolling and we were on fire trying to get 7s after our point was established. We did hella good I’m gonna try that again when tables turn cold.
Good to be able to switch strategies
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters hell yeah! It was great after a few hot shooters it turned. So why not cash in on it
My strategy is to 'Win-on-every-seven'. Lay all the numbers on the come-out only $30-30-30-30-30-30 to win $120 on the seven (NOTE: this is best played on bubble craps to avoid being a pain-in-the-ass for the dealer) with a DP of $60. You are guaranteed to lose $30 on the established point but you then have an established DP bet in your favor that will re-coop your loss and more on a seven-out. Hence, I call this the "WIN-on-every-seven" strategy. I welcome comments/feedback.
Great strategy. More popular called the “Lay the back wall”.
when you lay $30 you only win $15
DP all depends on the come out roll. You had better hope the shooter doesn't hit a 7 or 11 on the come out. I was curious about the percentage of shooters who make their first point which is around 44% which gives you a 46% chance. I would never do it against an experienced shooter but most bad shooters it is a good strategy.
Absolutely
But define what a good or bad shooter is though? It still isn't good to me. Damn near everyone claims to be a good shooter....
There is no good shooter. It's all percentage and probability everytime you roll. The odds catch up to everyone. Some people seem lucky when you are there, but you can bet they were not so lucky when you were not there.
You explained that about as confusing as you possibly can
Sorry about that
I can't play the dark side. Simply no fun in it for me. I'd rather just walk from a "cold" table.
Yeah. I don’t use it often but it’s good for a player to know some DP plays just in case.
I only play the Don't Pass. Always. I just stand at the tables and grind it out.
Takes a lot of discipline
Can a don't pass bet be picked up after a point has been established ?
Yes, but you should place the number the DP is on instead for a guarantee win.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Do you mean place the last number that was hit when you decided to pick up your don't pass bet ?
This is a great strategy. The only disagreement I have concerns myself. Every damn time I lay the 4 or 10, I get wacked. It's beyond a joke or funny oddity. Lay $100 on the 10 and boom! Shooter rolls a ten, I lose. Odds of hitting a 10 twice in a row are less than 5%. So I press it and lay $200 on the 10. Yup, first roll and shooter hits the 10. Again. The odds of hitting 10 three times in a row are less than 1/2 of 1%. So I use my head and lay $600 on the 10 in order to recoup my losses. Shooter rolls and....you guessed it, dice hit the 10. Again. What do I do? Change to the 4 and lay it. Same results. I'm beyond jinxed. What do I do? Decide using the 4 and 10 in my favor and place money on them. Before a 4 or 10 is rolled the 7 hits and I've lost that too.
Telling ya, it's beyond crazy and frustrating.
For me, I'm better to play the DP come out roll naked. I lose a lot less than hedging or laying.
I think it's just an anomoly.
You’re watching too much of that Pro Craps guy … #RespectTheSeven
Lol.
😂 like you said the 7 will always come
Wassup MS I thought I was watching Big AZ for a Min. Lol What about if you lay the number That's stablish and martingale 3 times on average players would hit 1or2 comeout numbers if they hit anything at all. This is Perfect for the Cal Bouncy Table
Lol. Big AZ. Don’t quite understand your question though.
@Hawaii Craps Shooters Instead of goin through the 7-11 on the Comeout just lay the number if they hit it just double it on the next one.
@@SuperMario-cv5eo That’s a lot of money. Plus you don’t get the 1 to 1 even payout on the DP
I agree with your analogy! The Don't pass is the best bet on the table! The only thing good about the passline is comeout 7s and 11s ! After that it ain't worth 2 cents!
LOL. Yup
What if I were to leave right after my very first point hit...than technically I would never 7 out ? 🤙😜
lol hehehe
Lol. Never ever seen that happen before.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters max lay bets hop the 7's One hitter Quitter 😝🤙
This is great logic for betting on random shooters. Your gonna get KILLED if an actual shooter gets the dice. Hell, I've killed MYSELF (financially) trying to ride the DP. STILL, this is great advice for the average player.
You won't get killed if your limit your DP loss to just 2.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Facts. You'll just be wounded. 😂😂🤣 It's cool tho. It's just a flesh wound. 😁 You'll survive. 😎
My go to best bet is offset Doey-Dont ex. $25 table I play for $5. Pass $30 Dont $25 come out 7 net $5. If point is 4/10 DP odds $20 net $5 for 6/8 let it ride or add Pass odds and 5/9 I play trend.
That's a good strategy
Darth Vader called and said, "Welcome to the Dark Side, shooter."
Lol. Just building my tool belt.
Would love to see you do a video doing a Don't Pass bet for 1 unit only after you see a shooter make 3 consecutive points. Go dark after the 3rd hit then double the DP until you hit a 2 or 3 on the come out or they 7 out. Keep up the great work brother 🤙
I’ll see what I can do.
What you say is true plus if a shooter does make a pass the odds go way down he will make two in a row.,.and three in a row? That gets real scarce. However..anything can happen in a regular session. Wizard of odds is talking thousands of rolls. You could lose all ten bets right in a row in a session.
That's true but that is that rare unicorn. That would like that shooter making a six point fire bet which doesn't happen often. Under normal circumstances the DP should come out ahead.
1.37% house edge on dont pass. 1.4% on pass.
Thank you
23.9583% of all rolls can/should be either a SEVEN or ELEVEN...however a craps number is likely at the rate os 13.541%.
Ok
DP is ok but I’ve gotten killed on it many times just like I have playing light side. The positive about light side is one hot roller can make up for the previous 5 short rollers. So it’s almost like picking how you would like to try and win that day.
Yes. Pick your poison. 😂
You can make it pass hot rollers on DP
$25 don't pass
$5 Any 7
Hot shooters typically are really just hitting a lot of Come out 7 & 11's
If you set a stop limit of 2 per shooter and you only lose on one come out 7 and one shooter hits point you lose $35..
But on average shooter I'm going to say 6 to 7 out of 10 don't make there point ..
@CC its why I always say only let a shooter burn you twice while on the DP. If you have a hot shooter, don't use the DP and then move back into the darkside before the hand resolves with the 7!
Yeah but as wise man once said ( and a craps expert BTW) you never know it was a hot lol until after it is over. Betting on the dark side is the only way.
Byran needs to go to remedial math school when it comes to his "Scoreboard" for hitting the Point vs. 7.
Lol
my problem has never been the come out roll which is scary ive seen a 7 thrown 6 times in a row!!!! but my problem is people hit 4/9/10 yet they hit these numbers it just made me feel im the unluckiest mofo on the planet ive had great success on playing 6/8
All depends on the dice
It's all fun and games when you are allowed to set dice. But more and more casinos are not allowing you to set dice.
Vegas Casinos don't care and they are the Capital of Gambling. LOL
The scoreboard is all good and theoretically tells the story but try and roll it out a couple hundred times and see how it turns out…..it won’t always be the same…..whether you’re on the passline or the DP any hedges will always take away from your wins
That is true. 👍
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters I’m not really a “hedge” guy…..like you said if the dice beat me “I’ll take my lickins like a man”….in the end it’s all up to how the dice roll…..and again like you always say “may the dice be nice” which ever side your chips are on. Your videos have great content Bryan…..keep um coming 🤙🏽
@@googsfive-0318 Thank you Googs
@@googsfive-0318 yeah sometimes you just know that hedge is not necessary. So just play the DP strait up - if you lose 50 on the line to me that is like PSO when placing the box numbers. so 🤷♂️🤸♂️💯 ;) pick your passion or poison??? :D sometimes I go with 55DP $4 for the yo and $1 for the 12 (only sometimes). The 7 only comes out 16.66667% of time.
@@timmelton856 I’m right there with you 😉
12:00 In the example here, you had already taken away the losses and then paid only $55 on the $75 win on the $5 7-hop example. A comeout 7 would pay; +75 hop7 -16 losing hops -55 Dont = +$4. When a comeout box number does show, you coughed up $21 to get your big $55 Dont out there on a number. That's way too many points to pay for that privilege. If you're going to hop Red, try a pre-planned progression with a bet limit and keep it separate from your Pass/Dont game. Hopping bets are a different animal and require a different approach. The real advantage of the lay $130 over the 7 hopping hedge is that you have the flexibility to lay the coldest box number. When laying $130 on the 4, keep track of the frequency of Little Joe hits, it could get hot and blow up in your face.
I agree. Hopping is a slow bleed. Lay bets are more advantageous to the bankroll.
My opinion is ditch the world bet. Bet the lay bet of the 5 or 9 for say $75+2vig or $90+2(or 3)vig instead of no 4 or 10 UNTIL A pt. is established then remove. Also, ditch the $5 on yo..only bet $3, and only hop 2 of the sevens instead of all 3.//$5 yo's will kill your bankroll, the world bet and that extra hop seven. Saving money is making money. The no 5 or no 9 pays far better than no 4 or 10, mathematically its not even close and you're only risking 2 more combinations to earn 16.6666% MORE if the 7 shows on the comeout.( 8 combos 4/10 each) (10 combos 5/9 each)....18...SEVENS!/// when a number is established OVER A LONG TIME. on 4 or 10 you'll win 69.2308% of them(even money payout)/// 5 or 9 you'll win 64.2870% of them/// 6 or 8 you'll win 58.0645%..the don't pass has a distinct advantage over pass after a point is established. Problem is 7 and 11 will destroy the wrong bettor over time, that's why you CAN NOT BET DP EXCLUSIVELY. There are 'secrets' to adjust for this. Btw, if the casino paid the don't pass on the 12....eventually they'd have to lock the doors on the joint, yes you read it right.🤭
Good advice
You had not pay the hopped 7
Yes. I didn’t because it washes with the dp
I agree it's the best bet on the craps table....but with one caveat. In the long run it favors the house because they have money and time to outlast most gamblers. You, as an individual, are subject to the short-game with your limited bankroll and time, where anything can happen. If you get in on the action when the table gets hot, the strategy backfires. You don't have the financial strength and backing to outlast the casino. You will win in the long run with the DP bet, but you need the resources to withstand the whipsaw effects that happen in the short-game, even with hedging.
This is just one of many strategies on your tool bet.
Your math was incorrect on everything you said in this video.
Sorry about that. Lol
Plan your presentations
Was it that bad?
Jacob from wager me this has a dp strategy I would try if I was to move there. Buy-in for ten thousand, start with $100 on the dp using a martingale for every loss with the daily goal being $500 profit and walk away. It’s a boring strategy but I believe a successful one
Yes. That’s an effective strategy and simple too.
A hot shooter will kill your martingale, so follow HCS's advice & stay off the DP with the 2nd loss.
That is when I play the pass line, & hope for a monster roll with an iron cross.
The "Dont Pass" is only mathematically slightly better that the "Pass" line bet, that doesn't make it the best bet because the dice have to go your way. How many times have you seen a dont better get hammered while you rake in chips ? Your last live video somebody rolled 7 like 5 times in a row, that "Best bet" cost you dearly...
Sorry, I didn't make it clear. It is the best bet on the table after the come out. I thought I did mention that in the video. Sorry about that.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters I was just responding to the title of your video, "why the don't pass is the best bet" and of course you can't make a dont bet after the come out.
@@rogeeeferrari gotcha
Show me the power of DP and pin this comment!
Haha. 👍
Look there are 3 axis on 2 dice always...which means all you can possibly get on 1 throw is one in 96. any possible set up with 2 tops on a square..a square has 4 distinct different sides.....when every top number you see technically will show a top result of ONE in 16(4 X 4= 16) the same outcome combo's of ONE in 576.(SIX SIDES to a sq.. .2 sq's is 6 TIMES 96....576 combos.That is the most possible setups 2 dice will show 1 setup of 576 throws.Therefore in 96 ROLLS there should be 18 Sevens,....13-- 6's...13--8's. only 10----5's, and 10---9's,.... 4 and 10 should appear 8 times each, a 3 and a 11...should appear "FIVE times: each in 96 rolls. The numbers 2 & 12 should only hit 3 times each in 96 rolls. Betting the don't with a 6 or 8 as the pt. gives you basically a 58% chance of winning, 5 and /or NINE gives the wrong bettor over 64% of winning. Four or ten becomes elusive to the tune of 2.25 to 1... (eight 4's(3 axis ..2 dice..remember) EIGHTEEN SEVENS for all of 8 FOURS and 8 TENS.. It's not fantastic odds and you can't really on that more risk...less reward wager...wagering on the don't side of 5 or 9 is probably the very best wager in the casino[ (a flat even money bet with some additional odds...always..) You can really kill em with NO five or No nine wagers if your timing is half way decent..4 or 5 fives or 9's inside of 20 rolls...you need to bet against one of those.//////18.75% of 96 rolls should be 7's/////.....18 of 96., FIVE and Nine are 10 each in 96. Betting heavy in odds on the 4 and/or ten can get you destroyed in short order...that is laying 2 for 1....
Thank you.
Confused AF
Sorry.
I see the DC bet better than the DP I keep feeding the DC and wait for 7 instead of risk getting my one DP off and being out the hand
I agree
i hate Line bets, they are losers. Pass Line usually loses if you don't catch a 7 or 11 on the CO roll, and loses instantly on the CO when a 2,3 or 12 is rolled. Don't Pass loses about 20% of the time on the CO roll to the 7 and 11, and even when you get past the CO roll, Don't Pass frequently loses to a Point of 6 or 8. I always bypass the Line bets when I play craps, and will only shoot the dice in casinos that allow Doey-Don't betting. Try sticking to Place, Lay and Don't Come bets, with Yo bets as a cheap hedge. Lay bets never stay up for more than one or two rolls.
You got it Doug. 👍
The exact probability of making a point after the point is established is 40.6% and thus there is a 59.4% probability of not making the point. The relationship is 6 winners on the DNP for 4 losers on the DNP -- It is not 10 to 4 .5 as you show in this video. If you look further into Michaels site you will see where he corrected himself to say what I said above. He said he had the flu and made a mistake.
You are correct, however the shooters making their point will also seven out so that counts toward the total (10) seven outs. Right?
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters No -- You are expanding the denominator from 10 to 14.5
if you had 10 chips and you moved 4 chips to making the point, then that would be accurrate
@@old7PSO what I mean is it will equal out. One point made and one seven out is made by the same shooter. That’s why for shooter 1 through 4 they have both a green chip and a black chip
I agree with concept and I am a strictly Don't Player. I do not hedge or Hop When I play its usually 12 hours a day -- got be there when the table is cold -- I also stop DNP lays after 2 losses -- Table MIn DNP and max odds of 5,6,8,9 - 2X odds on 4,10
The probability of making it; the odds of failing to make it. Just saying.
Right.
Next time don't explain it off the top of your head I understand what your saying but only cause I know craps. A newbie wouldn't understand what the hell your talking about
Ok. It’s not as easy as you think to run a channel
I love you guys and watch your videos but you really don’t know how to bet the game. I have been playing craps for over 40 years. Study the math of the game
I would love to hear your suggestions. I’m always learning.
I have never seen so much bullshit. It's just not worth explaining, if people can't understand simple odds then whatever, let them think what they want to.
Some people on my channel are just learning the game.