Will the ESKOM Grid Collapse?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ก.พ. 2023
- With various stages of load shedding happening in our nation, a lot of people are concerned that the grid will collapse. I've done the research so that you don't have to!
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Yes definitely Asher!! And it is not too far in the future. We need to prepare!!!
Very much!
The grid _will_ collapse. If it was only a matter of technical issues, then maybe the grid could be saved. But the debt spiral Eskom is in is not sustainable, and its not a matter of _if_ Eskom will reach the point where it can no longer purchase fuel, but _when_
I think that's a really good point!
The next question comes in.. if the grid goes down, how much of it will be left behind? Cable theft will be rampant.
@@travis9611 That's a very good point. Though on the other hand, if there is no longer a grid, and no longer a demand for copper wires, , would that not also influence what get stolen?
Great video
I disagree. ⚠️Eskom "Breakdowns currently amount to 21 243MW of generating capacity while 3 566MW of... planned maintenance". (why only 3 566MW in summer⚠️) Generating at 48 000MW with unavailability between 21 to 24.5 GW. Let's see
48 000-21 000= 27 000MW available.
48 000-25 000= 23 000MW available.
For the next 2 month the public demand will be between 29 000 and 33 000MW.
For a bonus let's see the stage cuts.
On a good day for Eskom 29 000 demand - 27 000avl = 2 000MW this equals Stage 2 to 3. Worst day 33 000 demand - 23 000avl =10 000MW. ❎ NOT available. This equals Stage 10 to stage 11. Eskom trending like this with public demand at 33 000MW, we going to see Stage 10 in next 2 months. 😲🙈 Stage 13 at July. This information is available at Eskom's site and you can do it yourself on Excel sheet and trending it.
Well eskom has requested to allow for up to stage 16 LShedding now , so yes right you are Andrew
Before the end of the year
I don't necessarily think it will collapse, because as long as there's people watching carefully they have measures to control the stability of the grid.
@@AsherPardey will they be allowed to stay on though? Will they get their salaries timeously
@@shanaazabrahams1319 Yeah that's the problem. If the systems work it's great, but if they lose employees things can get bad really quickly!
@@AsherPardey and that is my real worry
Electric car race in Cape Town?? Stage 7??
Yeah that's not great 😅
We are good? They are capable? They know what they are doing?
So why are we in this situation in the first place? Because they are capable and know what they are doing?
Please!
Speaking as a Canadian here ... although I would love to visit South Africa, this is one reason why I won't until you get the problem solved. According to many political observers outside of SA (mostly in the UK, USA and Canada), it seems that all of you are living a doomsday-like scenario. Again, something I don't really want to experience first-hand if I can avoid it. But, that said, I wish all of you the best of luck.
Well done Asher
Thanks Miles
i dont think its will it collapse ,its when , they owe far too much and have no way in hell of paying it back besides the rates they charge the paying public cant remain that high ,especially with the flood of contributors leaving the sinking country
A big problem called Eskom? That's a very strange way of spelling 'the ANC.'
Your info is incorrect.
Planned maintenance around 5000MW+
Unplanned from 13 000 - 17 000MW+
You had it the other way around
Grid black start with OCGTs and/or pumped storage, then synchronize to 50Hz. Not having enough water in pump storage or diesel for OCGT's is concern
Thanks for the correction, I appreciate it!
What about the electricity going into Africa
Die laaste paar mannen wat weet hoe om Eskom tegnies aan die gang te hou tree in die volgende 3 jaar af.
Thereafter the ANC cadres have full responsibility or lack-off.
It's a bit of a concern!
The short answer is yes...
Potentially :)
Hey, what camera do you use for your videos?
Hey Rajiv, I’m using an EOS R. 😊
there will be no grid to restore, cable thieves would steal all cables before generation is rectified
Well Asher, very well researched and good job keeping it objective.
Thanks!
This country is a sitting duck...
Let me know if you think the grid will collapse?
No the grid will not collapse for the simple reason ESCOM will just increase loadshedding hours.
No. Load shedding is not related to grid failure. It’s controlled so demand doesn’t exceed supply. Exactly why they are shedding.
@@nedor64 True!
@@markmcculloch2570 100%
Said with a Ugandan accent: "yoo aah Gay. Why yoo gay?"