Pace Makes The Race
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.ย. 2024
- Pace Makes The Race and Q and A seminar
Check out the latest Past the Wire Handicapping seminar!
We have all heard the saying "Pace Makes The Race" and it is definitely true. Pace has a significant impact on the outcome of many races daily. Turf, dirt, long, short, pace comes into play. Is it the only factor and end all be all? Of course not, but knowing who will be running where and how fast, and who will and who won't be running fast enough to win at the end of a race is critical to have a chance at long term success.
On this Past the Wire TV @PastTheWireTV video Jonathan Stettin talks about how he deciphers pace, why pace figures and projectors and even computers can't beat the human mind in this area. In this year's Kentucky Derby we saw just how much pace can affect the outcome of a race when Rich Strike benefited from the perfect pace and trip for him to beat horses he would not beat in different pace scenarios. That was an extreme example but lesser examples happen daily and often at big prices.
Learn how to have a pace advantage of your own and use it as an edge against your competition!
Being prepared counts. Just like horses train in the morning, we have to get ready for the races as well. Knowing who will be where when is part of that. Pace! Pace makes the race!
Thank you for watching Past the Wire TV! Nobody Does It Better and we do it for YOU!
Photo: Ernie Belmonte
Well, the title is “Pace Makes the Race”, so I tuned in. I must have missed the pace analysis, but I got information on class horses winning on the turf and the problems associated with being a window clerk at Belmont.
Since I no longer attend the races live, I miss my old racing buddies. Thanks for talking racing strategy with me.
I have been using Formulator since Day 1. If I heard right, you said they don't give the final time for all of the horses, but they do. In the charts of Formulator, the final time for all horses is under "Elapsed Pace".
I have been watching paddocks, post parades, warmups and races for 49 years and I have to disagree that you can't pick a winner off of just looks. I no longer play Belmont because they have the worst post parades I have ever seen. My go to tracks are SA, OP and WO because they have post parades where you can decide whether or not your horse is ready to run today.
Patience and discipline and picking my shots, like you, have kept me in the game for this many years.
RonZ
Thanks Ron, and appreciate the info as well.
It's possible to find a ready horse by the way they look in the paddock, but it takes TREMENDOUS skill, experience and discipline to master (not to mention a large investment in time, committment and keeping suberb notes). I've seen only a small few who had this skill and even then they used place bets as insurance to grind out a small positive return over a season at a particular track. It's almost like trip handicapping. It takes tremendous skill and superior observation skills to master. That's why most don't do it. I have over 100,000 PPs with results charts I've practiced on and I'm still learning.
Jon you truly have the best show out there with horse racing!!! There’s nobody else’s opinions I take more seriously than yours when I’m doing my handicapping! You just give the info not like oh horse 3 is gonna be 1st and this or that- As always you’re just a real cat who knows the game. You never trying to be in anyone else’s lane, or act like you best-you do you’re own thing, have your own opinion, and you call it how you see it! Simply just the facts, again where real horse racing fans want! Which earns you much more respect doing this the way you do it, rather that then a kid who thinks they have mastered this sport and “calls” the winning horses. we all know there are sooo soooo few who you can actually call masters of this sport- and that doesn’t mean they always win, it just means they know their stuff and have been around longer, you know what I mean!!! But love the show, love you, love your insight and love the way you just give it straight (especially being an Italian New Yorker like me where it’s just in our blood) and that’s exactly what I’m looking for, as any real fan is looking for- I will say you are a master of this sport in your own right, which should earn you so much more respect and attention than you get!!! Again never stop bc I need ya!!!! and god bless!!!!
Grazie, much appreciated, no worries, I ain't going anywhere....
Thank you! I’m glad to find out I am capping correctly and on the right track! I have been using each horses true fractions for a while now.
Nice job!!!
I’ve been using formulator to look at individual incremental fractions. I’ve been using formulator for a while and didn’t realize you could customize the fractions that way. It’s really helped my handicapping. Please keep giving the good tips.
Appreciate it. I actually go back and forth sometimes but when evaluating pace it is a fantastic tool. More to follow for sure!
I think you are totally wrong on the first comment about looks. Looks is the most important thing to me when betting. And everyone knows that I bet. Most people can handicap a race to some extent but the majority can't handicap looks. Look at Arrogate in the San Diego and the Pacific Classic. On paper he was far superior but in my assessment he looked horrible both races. My most memorable, although sad , was Go for Wand in the BC Distaff at Belmont. I was the crazy guy shouting at the trainer that based on looks she should not be on the track. Unfortunately he didn't listen and we all knew how that turned out. I bet lots of longshots and many of my winners comes by way of looks. But we all have our opinions and that's mine.
Jonathan,
As I was handicapping Sunday's WO card, I was looking at each entrant's final race time and realized this might be what you meant. In Formulator, just above the first horses name is a row of selection boxes. One is "Customize". After clicking you can choose under "Splits", choose "Accrued" and "This Horse" then "Update Current Profile" and you will get each horses individual splits.
I actually do a lot of my final decision making from the charts. That was where I steered you previously.
RonZ
that's it
Old saying class laughs at pace did u ever hear that one?
Formulator looks like a must use . Pace is so important so many times the gate opens and you realize the pace is not what you expected with jocks taking a hold . Agree about Saez and Carmouche also ...speed equals go ! ..well I'll take SHOW 11 lol ..good discussion
You need to make a video on how you read your race cards!! I’m
Dyingggg to see your methodology bc you have no idea how much I agree with everything you’re talking about! Like to a tee!!! Or if you have a video please let me know if so!!!
I think I did one a while back. I have to check, if not I will.
I never bet more than I can afford to lose, my bills are never in danger of not getting paid. I look at it as entertainment. I like movies, broadway plays, and concerts too, I pay to see them, I am entertained and in the end, I am guaranteed not to get any money back.
Thanks jon, very informative. I always have a knack for betting the pace setter that finishes last! Haha.
Thx Kenny and I understand lol. We all do it
Formulator DOES give individual horse final times. Formulator gave me Sir Winston, Always Dreaming, Looking At Lee and told me California Chrome wouldn't make the tri in the Belmont. Great tool.
Love Formulator
Yes paste does make the race . But in a 5 to 6 furlong race does paste matter when they all got speed. Just question to my fellow cappers 🐎
thx Jon!
is it accurate to say it could be better to use pace figures vs split times since each track is different and some are known for much faster times?
I prefer split times, I have a hard time trusting pace figures. Heck sometimes we can't even trust the splits.
Ray Talbot in the early 60s was a good teacher as far as pace he came out with the pace calculator which I used for years another guy was Huey mahl wrote pace makes the race r u familiar with these guys?
no John, never heard of them. A bit before my time maybe.
Great information Jonathan. Question, when looking at fractional times, first call, second call, finish...does the setting for the how far the rail is set matter? Thanks.
Thank you! Not really, the splits are what they are. It matters in other areas of handicapping, ground loss, post position etc, but the fractions not so much in my opinion. Especially when you average them out like we spoke about.
Great show sir appreciate the knowledge and content but my question is what are your thoughts on Jack Christopher sir? Do you think he can stretch out? I read he’s going to the Haskell next. Jack won the G1 Woody Stephens in 1:21.18 seconds and won by 10 lengths…. Is that fast? Can you explain on a horse like this never went over a mile but is stretching out for the first time
We talked about that and him. Yes he’s fast and yes I think he will stretch out. I explain why towards the end.
Bobby Frankel said it wasn't a beauty contest.
I thought I said that lol.
How do you rate a horse that is a proven rear runner. They don’t seem to get home many times
need good hands, let em settle where they are comfortable would be my best take, but we will have to ask a few jockeys
I believe John Henry also had a reputation for being a mean S.O.B.
The Dams offspring stats are vital in pedigree handicapping.
Did Secretariat win because of even pacing-training? With Even splits and tempo pace?
you finally said something right.....hot rod and mind control........you talked about the horse not numbers.....
I think you are ridiculous........i know more than you........the derby winner won because pace?.....how dismissive.....he ran the race of his life....he had more than mo more than others........pace made the speed quit not him win........he outfinished the closers how?......he had more horse.....
Ok, to each their own. All the best.
using pk 6 winnings to call you a winning player is a joke.....
Really, that is a most interesting take on your part.
you talk generalalities.........horses are not machines.......
That is what I always say.
@@PastTheWireTV the questions were bs.....the answers meant nothing.......nothing learned, because all horses are different....if a horse feels great today, they show more speed.....he was close because he felt great....all this after the race stuff is bs......you dont explain or know why turf is different....why last move wins......turf is way different than dirt....just like synthetic......there is a scientific reason......it is the same reason mares can compete on grass........strength matters more on dirt.....no one seems to understand why........
should i say why?
@@kg-xt4hg no
Horses or nature'smachines😅
nobody°😂 formulator ok. does not predict future at good odds..don't need old math.
if you could only use future knowledge to pic. winners of future knowledge..pace in thorograph etc. does not at all predict future winner. bye that garbage at chalk odds. No body does it better. Nobody! challenge me in contest to pic winners. do it.dont need seminar. take money.bsd info preaching. up to challenge. I am. win more than lose bets longshots too. don't use somebody's after math pic winners. Created my own. talk shit all want in pace. secondary math. cause all know..Laughing at this math. Bring it . Nobody does it better. forget bullshit in seminar.
theirs creators and pretenders use others math. joke! have knowledge create own math.
want it made public destroy you picking winners. up to challenge. Do it . think nobody does it better than you. Bullshit karma!
don't use old formulator math to predict winner. etc.including exactas ,tri. Supers. I don't pay to handicap. creator doesn't pay to 2nd party. know Math !
done many races of results..ran math of races. know math wins at prices too. nobody can pic. not formulator or brisnet math. if that math worked all be making money 😂
Knowledge of creator is King.No body does it better. Nobody!