Should We Be More Worried About A Social Breaking Point Than A Financial One? | Peter Atwater
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
- WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at www.thoughtful...
In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making.
And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions.
Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work.
Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate.
This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by.
So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely?
To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.
We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024.
#socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER at adamtaggart.substack.com (or upgrade to premium to receive our "Adam's Notes" summaries to this interview & all others on this channel, plus the new MacroPass service)
The problem is the populace is so ignorant to the cause of their suffering that they are primed to turn to big government solutions, free money, and social redistribution. With every institution in this country focused on teaching youth that meritocracy is evil, we are on a guided path to the "easy" solutions, which always end in disaster.
And nothing to say about corporate greed? I would say buying into corporate pr funded GOP propaganda is just as bad or worse than what you seem fixated on. Indeed the previously held notion in society that cigarettes weren’t bad for you … we can somehow blame that on the dogooder lefties too right?
The problem is illimformed people like yourself making comments about ignorance
There has been a redistribution going on for decades - from the poor to the rich. Look at low minimum wage, destruction of unions, collapse of education, jobs relocated overseas, etc…. People are pissed off but, as you say, ignorant of the cause of their suffering.
And the cause of their suffering being what? Apparently, accoring of employment data, 96% of the able population have a job and the majority of those are living paycheck to paycheck hoping their tires hold a bit longer. What exactly would you have them do differently? Perhaps getting a second or third job or perhaps siezing the means of production would help.
@@100perdido Perhaps pay attention to the economy and the dollar and the crappy economic policies that have passed over the decades. Seizing the means of production is the fast track to disaster.
Book 8 of Plato's Republic, describes the descent from democracy to despotism. If one reads it, one will be alarmed concerning today's circumstances.
If people aren’t happy with “their slice of the pie” then they should contribute to the production of a bigger pie. The strong do what they can , the weak suffer what they must.
Well the republic formed for us prescribed a very different format for political & civic participation, so direct any anger towards those who diverted us from the Founders' intended & recommended path for us.
I LOVE the Hershey story. Dolly Pardon created Dollywood for the same reason....to provide jobs for underemployed Tennesseans.
Dolly's one of the few rich people who isn't evil.
@@Falconlibrarybut of course most rich people are overwhelmingly evil
The resentment is huge. You have businesses that ship today where a senior manager who makes
63 dollars an hour walks into a room of handlers and tells them he has to cut their 20 dollar an hour pay to 18 dollars
for "budgeting concerns for the company" ...asking for Red October.
Maybe if government cut Payroll Tax, it could stay at $20.
Senior Manager likely makes 63/hour because they either kissed the right butt, or are good at their job.
If you think the manager should take a pay cut to make it more fair to you, will you pay more for ALL your foreign made goods so those workers can partake in the fairness?
Those experiments walking around Walmart parking lots where they ask if they think the employees are underpaid and most proclaim YES, but when the experimenter asks if they want to tip the employee to pay them more they DONT. Progressives are only generous with the money of others.
Being missed rather than being remembered. WOW!
Difference isn't a strength. The more difference, the more conflict, in real terms.
Adam, You need to take a deep dive into the positives and negatives of stock buyback programs that mainly benefit the wealthy.
He talks to lance roberts about them every week
Exactly Stock buybacks should be made illegal
This does not feel like 60s campus unrest. I was there. Rich and middle class kids protesting their cushy lifestyles, and then saying to their parents "I'll see you your comfortable middle-class lifestyle and raise you a 1980s Yuppie lifestyle. I was not there, but I suspect this feels more like Russia in 1917 or Cuba in 1959 with a fomented class revolution.
Important discussion here
@10:20 Nonsense. Consensus by far is we are totally going back to ZIRP and infinite QE at the first sign of trouble. Literally 6 times a day CNBC, Bloomberg, you name it, on and on with the when is the first rate cut happening, how many more times will they cut, when is QE starting up again, why doesn't the Fed raise the inflation target so they can start cutting rates. You'd have to be living on Mars to think the consensus expectation is that rates are going higher from here and staying there long term. If that were true, the yield curve would have un-inverted via bear steepening by now and mid- and long-term rates would be above the funds rate. Also, the S&P would probably be half what it is now.
Greed is great ... until the insiders pull the rug
Appears major points were left out of this discussion. You forgot to mention we have the highest debt in world history that is the crusher to all of the factors you discussed. Do what you like but printing trillions upon trillions in fiat money brings all of these factors to the greatest crash to even supersede the Great Depression. Greed is the exact reason we are here & hanging loosely from the abyss
Timely video because consumer sentiment just came out today and it’s up a lot to 102.
The problem is people can't see that it's breaking down among the poorest and they won't notice until chaos and crime starts climbing the social ladder.
Ha ha, "let's all go after those bastards at the top!" Preach it brother, LOL. Admittedly, I've had this very thought pass through my mind a time or two during the past few years!
If wealth is concentrated at the top, the solution maybe deflation (Recession) of all assets.
Since most of the wealthy have levered assets, if deflation (Recession) occurs a "reset" may occur.
Thank you.
Love Peter's sentiment regarding being missed rather than remembered❤.
perhaps the future is more pro-labor than pro-capital? If not, with the rise of AI, watch for social unrest.
So he is saying the markets could go up or they could go down. Wow, what a useful piece of advice. I just don't understand why you need a phd for it.
Because most don’t have common sense.
Up:down not left:right is exactly right.
There once was an ethos that respected & admired those who were successful & a belief that it was always possible for oneself/ family.
Now it’s not that there are too many wealthy people or that they are more public necessarily, but as badly formally educated as the populace has become they are not stupid -
They are increasingly aware that wealth was created by algorithmic & other unfair manipulations, governments elected & run by contribution & an economic doctrine called globalization that raised the standard of living elsewhere almost entirely at the expense of their own.
People didn’t stop respecting the successful - the successful stopped caring whether they were respected or not.
It’s going to come home to roost and that’s a fact.
Indeed. And this is why we need another productivity gain that will likely be provided by robots and AI next. Humans will be guiding and assisting these, as in the past they used machines.
Thanks buddy
You need to interview Mr. BEAST if you want to reach the next generation and instill some financial wisdom into the kids who will be most affected by today's spending policies.
When this gentleman is speaking about a playbook that doesn’t liquidate employment during a rough time, we do have a playbook for that. It occurred during the beginning of the great depression when Herbert Hoover spoke with leaders of industry in order to keep wages, high and limit job losses. Was beneficial to those who were able to keep their job but led to massive and consistent unemployment from those who were unlucky enough to be cut. They were then priced out of the market because wages never dropped to a level in which they really should’ve been.
There comes a trade-off and the trade-off of a strategy like that contributes to a prolonged downturn. That wasn’t the only thing that prologue, the great depression, but it definitely contributed.
Wise man!
The Pain of the Loss is Far Greater than The Pleasure of the Gain 😊
The USA is following the path of Venezuela. Make people be more dependent on the government for free stuff, tax the hell out of the wealth creators until they give up or leave. Great model for prosperity.
I see a lot of people at both the top and the bottom of our society whose only answer to every problem is more government handouts. Bread and circuses.
Tax the hell out of the wealth creators? Did you recently have a TBI? 75% of our problem is the "wealth creators" aren't paying their share!!
The U.S. income tax is one of the most progressive in the world. The top 1% make 26% of income and pay over 40% of all income tax. Inflation is a tax on the poor.
Brilliant! Brilliant interview!!
Thank you for having Peter on !
Financial conditions in the US are currently at the loosest they’ve been since 2021. Lower rates and a soaring stock market are only going to fuel inflation again. It looks pretty obvious to me that there is an outsized risk of a melt down not a melt up ..
Break it down 👍👍
Adam the GDP was revised down to 1.2%
Excellent Interview. Peter's calm and direct speaking style impressed me.
Excellent
So, things could get better, but, if they don’t, they could get worse. Got it! Brilliant! Thanks.
Best horse in glue factory 🤣 wouldn’t that be a Trump and Biden comparison?
If 90% of all market transactions are automatic program trades, how does individual emotion weigh on this?
Big investors making large trades. This includes money in ETFs and Mutual Funds.
The build out that is needed to justify NVDA valuation isn't tenable.
Peter has a great deal right in focusing on the consequences of the ever growing wealth gap. Adam's preparation appeared to be lacking ... lots of stumbling around and too many interruptions.
If people aren’t happy with “their slice of the pie” then they should contribute to the production of a bigger pie. The strong do what they can , the weak suffer what they must.
Dont take the bait - false events, actors and social engineering - love they neighbor
If this channel starts talking about a bull market, then it's time to sell!!!!
Darius Dale and the Real Investment Advisor guy Lance is always bullish AF in every video …
Sell to me !
@@JC-cf4rs all the bulls are molly cuddled by ever loose financial conditions 😂
@@JC-cf4rs all the bulls are molly cuddled by ever loose financial conditions 😂
To invest to stay informed is what everybody is trying to do, but the information that is received is not transparent. It’s distorted manipulated.
I find this, hilarious. After talking for an hour about effectively only politics and socioeconomic issues, and the conclusion largely drawn with Peter, is that people are looking left vs right, as opposed to the real issue which is the owner class vs the working class.
And the comment section is left vs right banter 🤣🤣🤣
Exactly
Listening to the entire interview. It is unusual that I remember more of behavioral psychology & philosophy, like a college lecture than economic advice.
Excellent guest!!!! Thank you,
This is a richly interesting discussion. For understanding and predicting human behavior, iI's crucial to recognize the dominance of loss aversion. Not only do we weight losses 2x gains, but K&T's prospect theory experiments show that we are risk-seeking in the domain of losses. This helps explain why investor behavior is so often self-defeating: the last peak price is the benchmark that investors who suffer a price decline set for exiting a stock that has turned, so they just ride it down to the bottom instead of cutting their losses. This happens frequently in the stock market, but more seriously in the housing market because homeowners can live with their price delusions for a long time.
This is very insightful.
And, to my chagrin, describes me perfectly.
@@BOULDERGEEK It describes just about everybody until strict trading discipline is applied.
Why can't the government say if the Fed funds rate is 5 percent the credit card rate can't be more than 10 percent over. Basically the banks are legalized Loan sharking
Because the Feds rate is a risk free rate, and a credit card is unsecured high risk. Risk is measured in dollar value or rates. If Govt fixed credit card rates, then you would have to secure you card against your assets and 80% of the population would not have access to a credit card.
I think AI will be the worse thing to happen in the stock market. Most citizens cant afford AI. This means that those who cant afford AI will withdraw from the stock market. But there might not be a stock market in the future anyway since people are angry that bankers bundled foreclosed houses and sold them on the stock market allowing corprations to dominate housing prices. Some people are starting to stipulate to their realtors that they dont want to sell to corporations even when it means they get less for the house they are selling. I heard of one person getting $25,000.00 less for their house by doing this. I think the more the wealthy extract from our society, the angrier the general public gets. And I think that eventually the lower classes will turn against the wealthy. Im not sure it will include violence, but they wont listen to their council any longer for sure. As for the voting, people are waking up to the fact that the wealthy have the governments ear and the general public have taxation without representation. Lobbying has brought this sentiment about. Im concerned because people cant afford a family any longer. Im concerned the families can afford housing. Im concerned the the wealthy have drawn too much out of the system and are excited about getting even wealthier while their fellow citizens cant afford the basic necessities of life. Im concerned that companies are buying up real estate and forcing people from the homes. Theyre even buying up trailor parks where the poorest of our citizens live and raising their rent to the point that the person has to move away leaving their trailer home because they cant afford to have the moved. Im concerned that HOAs are taking peoples houses for back fees owed. But most of all, Im concerned about the lack of morals that the wealthy property grabbers are displaying to us all. It shows they have no compassion for their fellow man. Is it any wonder why civilizations fall with people like this running our government? They couldnt have done this without lobbying. Think about that.
Most people won’t buy AI or robots directly. But if you can produce twice as much using them then it will reboot the US economy.
Trickle Down Economics has been one of the greatest and longest lived lie we've been told.
Exactly. The rich are greedy and will never share one penny they aren’t forced to
You cant have trickle up, as the poor have no capital to invest in growing the economy. The rich get richer is a mathmatical rule that wealth will compound faster then no wealth or debt, always widening the wealth gap on its own
The richest get richer and the poor get poorer. This is called greediness.
We need to have a discussion regarding utility functions and how the human goes about following the power construct - neo classic paradigm theory. We can start in the area of welfare economics and begin with the sort of enate instinct of using the market system to stimulate happiness.....
Charlie Brown just called...he wants his shirt back.
The Hitler comp for a populist candidate is not quite accurate. Hitler was not democratically elected and was actually quite unpopular when he took power. He used stacked courts, intimidation, and other illegal tactics to stage an ascension to power. So saying he was created out of a broken Germany is half true. Trump on the other hand is a populist grassroots candidate who comes from outside politics and is fighting against every institution instead of fighting with them. That is very, very different from Hitler.
Also, Peter seemed to indicate that it is foolish to vote based on "Dread" of what the other side will do..and yet we have a corrupt justice system going after a former President and the leading candidate by popular polling. If that does not inspire some sense of dread of the left I do not know what it will take.
Cope harder
Hitler was democratically elected!!! Very sad
Yes, and Hitler used Socialism to win over the population until he needed war money and took a more Fascist ecobomic stance. A Fascists, and a Capitalist like Trump, would never economically agree on anything.
Next, please discuss AI and robots and how they can once again restore American productivity.
Completely disagree that there isn’t an effort to keep us divided. Whether or not it’s left vs. right doesn’t matter. It’s 100% rich vs. poor. Bill Ackman and a bunch of billionaires discussing shutting down pro Palestine protests is all you need to see.
I'm not against diversifying; However, if people can't pay rent on the real estate you own, you can't buy groceries Unless you leverage the real estate.
Adam, what say ye?
You don't get social unrest with median age of 41.
This is a profoundly true statement. Demographics drive destiny.
If only 10% of the population are 35 and under (and we know it’s larger than that. And they all rise up, believe me their social unrest will be monumental because they will role over the masses walking around on their canes Never underestimate the power of youth
Love the show
But I always find it hilarious that the more educated a person is… the less likely they are to find it even remotely possible that an underlying hand is at play.
But if you ask them how much time they’ve spent looking into the possibility they will poopoo it.
Perhaps it just doesnt financially incentivize them to do so. They are ACTUALLY quite content with the status quo… regardless of what they say
That can be said for anyone employed by an institution
Once you join, you now have a financial incentive to defend the system that pays you
Parasites :)
I can remember when gas was priced at nineteen cents per gallon. I can also recall when the price per gallon of gas crossed the one dollar per gallon of gas all time (until then) high.
Hes wrong we have already seen it with every compony mentioning AI at earnings calls has been crazy. Ai in toothbrushes. Lol. Its already here
Raise audio volume. Too low.
Mine or Peter's?
@@adam.taggart Your guest's audio. It's not the first time. Something in the way the feed is set up. I'm sure it's fixable, but I've no idea how.
I would like to more about the unrest to possible be created.
Love your channel Adam🇨🇦
Thank you!
In the 1960s there was conscription and Vietnam...ie NO Parallel AT ALL !
@@ericvondielingen5972 I don't have any peers... If you mean 'fellow countrymen" then you have the choice of UK or USA... neither of which have invaded Poland
Do you expect the DMC this summer have lots of protests and violence as it did in 1968
Yes because the Commies and nut jobs have taken over that party 😢
th-cam.com/video/MxSDxZDZHiA/w-d-xo.html&pp=ygUbc2FhZ2FyIDE5NjggYnJlYWtpbmcgcG9pbnRz - more in common with 2024 and 1968 than just that.
very low volume
1:09:13 yall he’s putting us on game here. You gotta imagine the unimaginable
so... could be up...or could be down. Very helpful!
Yes, that's what I took from it. Adam summed up the only real message "Status quo is teh only thing he ruled out."
This interview got sad and pathetic as soon as they dismissed the mess we're in as accidental, rather than planned.
If this were an accident, then at some point our leaders would have... by sheer stupidity or accident... done something that actually helps the working and lower classes...
... and yet, that NEVER happens. Every single decision has made our situation worse, and often predictably so.
This interview is two sheep discussing the state of the world beginning from false axioms. Thus useless. 🙄🤦♂️
Politicians can’t actually help lower to middle class. USA has to once again regain a competitive footing. Instead of farming out labour to cheaper countries, the US businesses can increase productivity using AI and robots coupled with human guidance. Medicine will be overturned by AI.
@@Anne-LiseH Shut up, bot. No one with a brain wants your Technocratic (dystopian) future.
The best way politicians can help people is by repealing the over-abundance of laws and micromanaging regulations (and end the Fed)... so we can actually have a free market where people can voluntarily exchange with one another.
Some businesses will hire at home, some abroad, some use AI, others won't and all the citizenry would then profit... instead of just the few government selected winners.
This guy is focused on gas prices when he should be looking at grocery prices.
Crashing dollar and skyrocketing S&P500 is net zero for the rest of us!
so difficult to comprehend that people can vote based on last 4 month than 4 year
This guy is the most soporific thing imaginable. I am sure I would flunk the hell out of his class.
Thanks for the new word.
Great interview as always. Thanks, Adam.
Class War.
Left to Right is exactly the same as Up and Down, but we've been inocculated against it with the promotion of useful myths that make us comfortably numb.
Thank you very much...
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank
The pump??? Housing much more important
Thank you Adam
I would have loved to watch this, but I can't take the repeated 60-second ads.
Pay Google to go ad free.
I sometimes wonder if the downturn of CY 2022 was a fore shadowing of the larger downturn to come ?
Since that downturn, the AI exuberance of the market has plowed higher-irrespective of other troubling data. If the upcoming S & P downturn is 20% or greater, it is highly likely this will serve as a societal contagion for greater unrest and fervor if employment is finally negatively impacted.
It's less than an everything bubble and more of the dollar being worthless.
Your comparison to Hitler is idiotic and shows a complete lack of historic knowledge.
This is a sad interview.
I don't understand this housing crisis. If 65.9% own their home, and the birth rate is negative (at 1.6 where 2.1 is replacement rate), and the average household size is 2.51. That means most people can just take over the house from the previous generation, and the household size is so small, even if you just move back to1960-1970's household size, that would absorb 25% of the population easy. There's no housing shortage, they build exactly what they need, and anyone can seek to build a new house if they don't like the existing ones.
11 illegals came into the country since 2020, when the current president instituted the "no borders" policy. That's 11 million additional people we have to house, a huge number even in a country with a 330 million population.
Also, in many markets, investors buy between 30% and 50% of all single family homes. There's a small town in Kansas (2200 people) where five people own 50% of all the houses in town. And those five people don't live there. They hold the houses vacant to drive up the prices for the ones they rent out. Just one example to show you that the scourge of investors is everywhere.
Minus the newcomer PROBLEM.
Sounds made up@@Falconlibrary
ThumbUp &LeaveComment 4AIgosAll
WITH RESPECT BONDS TOPPED IN 2020 AN STOCK S&P NDX 100 NEW HIGHS ???? WHAT IS THIS MAN TALKING ABOUT ABOUT ?
Is AI going to be doing the menial manual labor jobs?
Coffee cup
Adam has had some great guests lately
So wealthy that he is blind to the lizardmen. Or owned by them.
I thought Adam was gunna choke when you implied that companies shouldn't be treating thier employees like slaves . Rare view for aristocratful money
Let’s coin the phrase : The Baby Boomer Bubble . This is what we have
We continually come back to the class divide that is a feature of capitalist markets since Marx pointed it out 175 years ago. The playbook to solve this conundrum DOES exist, though it's a needle that's hard to thread politically. The problem is the two-class dichotomy that that's the legacy of an industrial society - where everybody gets divided up into capitalists or workers. But capitalist enterprises only thrive if they are able to maximize profits by maxing revenues while minimizing costs. Labor is a cost, so the survival of the competitive firm relies on minimizing labor inputs and costs. Voila, the more successful the capitalist economy is, the richer are the successful capitalists and the poorer are those who sell their time and energy in the process. That is the short-term dynamic, the long-term dynamic can help ease this divergence through increased productivity or a shortage of skilled labor. In the meantime we get the business cycle that can bleed into politics.
The sustainable solution is to ensure that all citizens participate in the wealth creating process as not only workers and employees, but as equity participants. But there's no reward without risk, so equity participants must assume and manage the financial risks of shared ownership. This means the wage contract is far more flexible, more adaptive, and assumes more downside risk. This does not entail expropriating wealth or "eating the rich," it does mean 'buying' off the risks existing capitalists manage and reaping the returns to success. The political problem is that those who have the power to make policy governing finance, money, law, and regulation would rather share the risks, but not the rewards. This is why we get socialized losses and privatized gains. But disconnecting risk from return is not only a violation of finance theory and property rights, it's a violation of capitalist morality. In other words, it should be illegal and sanctioned. "Heads we win, tails you lose," is not a virtue of a free society.
Nothing is free not even c-vid candy
We😮
you dont want a king but a certain prominent figure sure acts like a tsar....
Boring and no real information
AI is pure hype 😂
5th, 28 May 2024