Want to see more examples? This video goes through 6 preflop all-in examples and shows you how to calculate the EV in all of them: th-cam.com/video/LkOhbn81Q_o/w-d-xo.html
And always are there some fool with 0,1% of luck and river always be that one card for him. I can be pro but there is always some fool that calls you all in with 6 9 suitedand hits three of kind orsometh8ng better against your KK or AA
The maths in poker isn't that hard because more often than not you are dealing with the same scenarios over and over again and in most cases the math has been done for you elsewhere. Very rarely do you need to do the math at the table, most situations should be covered in your study away from the table, and when you are at the table it's more about feel based on the theory you've learned away from the table.
I installed 4 days ago and after a few tables I could tell something fishy was going on. People getting rivered all the time and beautiful hands (straights, flush, full house). Betting with a set was really scary.
@@9charlie84 First of all, I've been playing for years and never saw something about a badge. Second of all I've cashed over 60k and know some other good players that have cashed more than that so you probably just suck at the game
The tricky part here is that EV over millions of hands is tough for any human being to consistently stick with. When you factor in tilting and misreading ranges this equation becomes quite skewed especially for the average player. I agree with everything he said but keeping with these principles is extremely difficult when you take into all of the variables that the average player endures. When I say average player, I mean recreational players not trying to make a living, but trying to enjoy themselves while making some money at the same time. Just be aware of what kind of player you are before you apply these principles whole heartedly. Just my 2 cents...
True. That is reality. But with the knowledge of odds, we can instinctively understand correct plays and this gives us an edge over this that do not even consider these mathematical principles.
@@Drew_Guitarist Gday Drew, thanks very much for pointing that out. I'm rec player with ambitions of going pro in two years from now. At one stage I was thinking just get better at reading people's ranges, then I won't need to rely on EV calculations as I can simply choose correct plays. Yes, this will give us an edge! Cheers
If you practice this equation at home hundreds of times, I promise, you’ll be able to do it in seconds. Hardest part is memorizing equity for the hands you place them on during a live game. No calculators allowed at the table. I’m no Rainman, but I believe it’s possible to memorize equity if you’re tenacious enough.
I understand the math. It’s the “over a period of time” thing that usually gets in the way of this mathematical approach. Many folks gone broke because they ran out of money before they ran out of time.
I’ve always started small, begin with 10$ betting tables and keep that money there slowly growing and occasionally take money off it if you need to buy something (assuming it’s reasonable). If your money collapses then you only have to spend 10$ to try and rebuild it
Without an understanding of Bankroll management you just wont make it, you can be the best player on the planet , the Lebron of poker , you will mizerably fail!
There is one part of this that I am struggling with. I understand how this can be proven mathematically if we could be certain about our opponent's range. But how can we be certain that our assumption about his range isn't wrong? For example, what if A-J & K-Q wasn't truly in his range? Wouldn't this completely throw off our calculation? And what about someone who is trying to play like Phil Ivey & puts in a 5th raise preflop holding 5-2... How do we put him on a range? Do we just say that his range is any 2 cards?
Ok but how do you figure out what the win and loss percentage will be without a site like pokerstrategy? And how do you know which range of hands of our opponent to consider?
Elly Rust watching you oppenents play for a while will help you understand their ranges and tendencies. With practise you can become more educated on good (+ev) or bad (-ev) spots.
I read that most of the range vs range stats studying happens off-game, also in more common situations experienced players will simply "know" a play is good EV because he/she has run into it countless times
This video demonstrates how sophisticated poker players play poker and why they win more often than amateurs. They are playing at a totally different level of complexity. It also explains why most of the pros take a long time to make a decision whether to call or fold. I never this type of calculus was going on in the background of most hands.
The biggest key to all of these strategies is sample size. If youre a rec that plays every once in a while variance can wreck using an ev strategy just because the number of hands can struggle to balance the beat in close ev spots.
This is a great video, and does a wonderful job explaining this concept. At the end of the day though doesn’t this just come to put more money on good hands, and less money on bad hands?
When calculating the win percentage what calculation do you do, all possible hands that they could have that would beat us compared to where we could beat them? If so does that include every card in the pack or just expected range? And if the latter how could we possibly come to a positive eg in the example given the fact the player went all in suggesting their range is likely high card pairs or ace with face card
Nic Turuk in short. You’re going to guess. The longer you’re at the table and the longer you play with specific people you can put them on a range of hands, based on their actions, bets and their showdowns. Then you need to know your win % based on the range you put that person on.
No, this is not bs, this is how it's done. If you're playing with some crazy guy with crazy hands like that, you are probably playing with amateurs. It is really hard to play against amateur because the range they are playing is often really wide, and is because of that we have cases like the Hellmuth's "He called me with a Q 10, honey" meme. But as Chris said, if you are playing for a long time with this "funny fcker", you will be able to discover that he plays those hands and because of that, the range for this "funny fcker" will be really wide. But the math is the same. You don't need to believe me, or believe Chris Leung tho. If you need to hear the same thing we are saying, but from a pro, search for Negreanu's tips videos, he post it often.
If you're still confused, check out a statistics course. Concepts like EV and law of large numbers can be applied to a wide range of problems outside of games
If you calculate Rake, it might not be profitable to make that call. Also, in order to reduce variance, its better to let some equity goes. It might not seems optimal on the long run, but it stabilize your bankroll and your psychologic and this is +EV.
When do we need to calculate the actual EV? Would it be suitable to just use the equity to pot odds to calculate if its a positive EV call and act accordingly?
In my opinion the correct form is: EV_FOLD = -$1 EV_CALL = -$0.72 EV_CALL - EV_FOLD = +$0.28 It means for this specific situation for long term, if you call, you will lose $0.28 lesser. In the other word, you will lose in both cases but it's better to call to lose lesser.
So, when you are in the tricky range and can not calculate it at the table, wouldn't be folding be the correct play; thus limiting your played hands to those situations where you are pretty sure you have a positive EV?
@ThePokerBank But we are calculating these numbers in our head, and we are estimating the percentage change of winning [by estimating the range of hands our opponent will play], What if we are off by 3% in our calculation (which is not too far off for an estimate); now the EV is minus 17 cents (.45 x 13 = $5.88) - (.55 x 11 = $6.05). At the beginning of our poker playing career, can we really be expected to nail down [i.e. estimate our change of wining] the chance of winning with less than a 2% margin of error, so that we know when such a close bet is profitable (+EV)?
4:57. I have only a 47% chance to win but what makes it ev is the amount of the wager, i suck at math but heres my question, is it ev to only spend or wager $2 for a chance at 500 million? Im talking about powerball. Since im probably not going to ever win powerball it cant be positive ev.
It's a function of the size of your risk compared to the size of the reward and the % chance you can win the reward. I would suggest Googling to find out what the chance of a Powerball win is, how often the Powerball is won by a single person (since you might be sharing the win), and the taxes (since that also cuts into your "$W"). Happy exploring!
Awesome, really interesting video. Unfortunately, I don't understand how you decide your opponents range of hands or what "sevens plus" and "king queen plus" means. Could you explain that please?
Chris Cavani thanks Chris! 77+ means a player holds 77 and all pairs bigger (so 88, 99...KK,AA). And KQ+ means a player holds KQ and AQ. If you want to learn more about hand reading, SplitSuit is hosting a webinar on this exact topic soon that you'll want to checkout: www.splitsuit.com/hand-reading-webinar/
Still don't understand how we are suppossed to come up with EV% at the table. Using a software program is supposed to help us come up with a percentage and remember these when we play live?
You're not really going to be doing the math at the table. It's impossible unless you're some genius level mathematician. It's more about experience and intuition. You do these EV exercises in practice across various types of hands and it starts becoming principles you apply in real time for hands in relation to game circumstances like raising, calling, what kind of flop comes up, etc... This guys has some good workbooks that, if you have the desire to get through and gain the experience, will help.
How does this work when you’re not the final better in the round? Like you can’t tell how much you’ll win if there are more people left to bet after you?
At 3:05 it sez that "in the long run" results will come back to expected value. This is sorta true. In the infinitely long run, actual value and expected value will meet an infinite number of times -- but they will also go infinitely far apart, guess what, an infinite number of times. What the video does not tell us is, how long is the long run? The answer is, it varies. You're welcome.
How accurate can I reasonably expect a hand range to be? And wouldn't wild players completely ruin EV since they don't have an easily predictable range?
when you say milllion hand s you say that for instance in this example if you have this hand ace queend with this all in raise...that hands might become different days and on diferrent tables right??
@@ThePokerBank Like how you’ve described that throughout the first round it’s a .47 vs a .53 so during the second hand what’s the outcome of the %W and the %L and how did you came to that conclusion?
I have been playing poker for only 4 days and I really love it, but got to admit this is scary. But your videos are such a great help! Thanks for all the free videos you are offering us.
Hi James, do the 11$ don't matter in the formula? We can win 24 instead of 13$. That would make the EV 5,45$. Or does EV ignore the money we can win back ?
Only money you've previously put in the pot gets included in the $W. Money you have not previously put in (like the $11 in this example) would only get accounted for as risk and not as reward. I hope that helps!
I want to ask you what do I have to do if I flop a top pair but the flop is draw heavy?When do I have to make a protection bet? What type of flop is good to make that move? I was thinking that a protecion bet on a draw heavy flop,if the opponent has some kind of projects , would be called because if we bet 80 % of the pot is a good call statistically with a project: ex.pot size 100 we bet 80 and the opponent calculates his flush draw EV = 0.35 * 260 - 0.65 * 80 = 91 - 52 = +39 .Can you give me hints about when and how to do a good protection bet? Waiting for your reply, I thanks you for all your videos and comments.
Hi I’m still new to all of this and I’m confused at how to understand quickly what the win% and lose% would be for the hands. I know working one out will solve the other but does anyone have a easy method to being able to plug that percentage while in game? Thanks!
I would just study away from the table than plug it in at the table. There are plenty of charts and sites to use if you want to know what the optimal strategies are for each spot, and look at enough of those and you'll get a decent idea of what your equity in the pot is and what your general strategy should be. I dont have every spot memorized but I have a rough idea of where I'm at and my guesstimates on my EV normally fluctuates between 5% and 10% from my actual EV in hands that get to showdown. Big thing to remember is this is a Basic EV formula. A standard EV formula should include fold equity, which means how much money you make when your opponent folds. Equity in the hand does matter, but remember that equity assumes that when called no more betting occurs, so while at the time you only own 43% of the pot it may increase or decrease based on what cards come out, so if you can get your opponent to fold their equity and you know you can get them to fold at a frequency that is profitable it is sometimes plus EV to bet even if your Equity is awful like 24% My suggestion for a decent site to get started on is PokerCoaching.com since it has the basics and the advanced should you want to go that far
I understand the ev calculation but how on earth do you get %W? your opponent(s) could have any of over 150 dif hand combinations, which is then compounded by the potential community cards combinations
Play around with an equity calculator (like Equilab) for a bit to get a feel for it. There's a lot of practice of that sort of thing in my Preflop & Math Workbook if you prefer: www.splitsuit.com/poker-preflop-math-workbook
great stuff ! what's the best ways to estimate an opponents range ? generally, will you play tighter against 'erratic' players, that could get lucky ie- don't have a well founded range..? how to play fish/players; suss them out over the long term ? thanks ! :))PO
Isn't your position an important variable. Whose to say everyone else folds? Let's say another person with a similar range calls/raised doesnt that drastically reduce your ev?
In this case a similar range in what's basically a heads-up means that statistically both players will have the same chance of winning the pot for value. BUT bear in mind that there's nothing in the EV formula that takes into account the other player's hand/s. It's only calculating YOUR expected value based on YOUR hand. You need to look at other factors when deciding whether you want to call, fold or raise from there based on what other players are doing (like what position you're in)
I have no idea (prevideo) of this EV. If I say I have an un-worded feel. But I can teach you about "pase" as you can guess, once someone starts one. They all follow it, leading to an all around bluff control
Thats so fucking interesting. I just started to try to learn about the Maths and Strategy behind poker. I would have never thought how complex this game actually is.
With lots of off-table practice you will begin to get a good internal feel for Equity. But you can also use the 4/2 rule to estimate equity when drawing...
5:12 sorry but u lost me there, what do you mean by that 'its not just +EV but its also optimal play', can you give me an example where it is +EV but not an optimal play, thank you.
ofcouse it would, but thats more of a matter of knowing your opponant, is he/she a very loose player who plays every hand? or would your opponant only do this with pocket aces? plus, how much is $30 to that player? it is a whole lot of difference when his stack is $600, when you more easily put $30 in the pot than whenever your stack is only$50. this is why there is no best strategy to poker, there is a matimathical side to poker but there is a psychological side as wel
When doing single-action EV, any money you've previously invested in the pot belongs to the pot. Otherwise your up/downside numbers would mess up the accounting =)
Do you have a video that takes into account the effect of rake on your EV and ranges you play? I play in some 5%-10% uncapped rake games. With the hand you showed with AQ, I would fold in a real game given the range you assigned the villain, due to the rake (47% chance win vs the range you assigned, and 45% pot odds). Although, there are other considerations like image where sometimes you have to give action to get action with your monsters.
+MOOOMIX we don't discuss rake a ton because it's so variable and usually not too huge of a factor. That being said, in a 5-10% UNCAPPED RAKE game the rake will bury you. If possible, avoid that game like the plague since it's not long term viable.
Good explanation. Now, couple this with PROPER BANKROLL SIZE for correct game, I'm the long run you should be a winner, break even at best. Want to get to +EV quicker as a beginner? Stop chasing runner runner IMMEDIATELY.
Thanks for your videos James, these are very helpful! I have a comment about situations like these when it comes to tournament poker. I understand that most of these videos will suit cash games more than tournaments. If this situation happened early in a tournament is this still a call? Is it worth getting into a coin flip situation? For tournaments is it wrong that I think folding here is +EV? I just feel that calling and winning < calling and loosing thus busting out of a tournament that I could have gone deep in. Please share your thoughts on this!
You are very welcome Tim. A +EV situation is a +EV situation, regardless of whether it's in a cash game or MTT. That being said, in MTTs, SNGs, etc. you do need to consider the one-life-to-live mentality and gauge whether taking a thin + EV spot is best...or if your overall edge in the tournament is great enough where you should pass on a super thin + EV spot, even though it's technically + EV. That's the whole artform of tournament poker...balancing + EV plays with optimal plays given the exact parameters of that stage of a tournament
i know this is old but it's a great question so i wanted to contribute to the debate (even though im no expert). i think that in a tournament the villain would have a way smaller range because he's only got that one chance to win aswell. so unless he's a total maniac he'll probably only go all in with premium pairs
fanicia42 if that's the case (that the range is smaller), the video gives you the tools/formula to plug in that new range and get a correct EV. These videos are all about teaching a framework, and in this case you can just plug in your range assumptions into the math and get your exact answer :)
The Fish you'd want to get familiar with the advanced EV equation to calculate a spot where there action isn't complete yet: th-cam.com/video/ym1774AC5Ww/w-d-xo.html
It's actually a fair point and something that no poker video or book seems to cover, in close ev situations your probably ought to be folding because of the rake. I think this is the reason a lot of good players struggle when they play online or go to the casino after crushing a local non raked game. If you need 3 to 1 to call in a raked game and you are getting exactly 3 to 1 to call then you should fold because the rake makes it negative ev.
so... why do we include our own money ($1) into the winnings of $12 (W=$13) when we dont include our loss the same way? ie. wouldnt we end up losing 12 and not the 11 stated in the video? trying to wrap my head around this.
Why do they have to be all in for this example? Before you even get into the math, I'm gonna play aq and take the opportunity to force someone out at the risk of losing a small part of my stack. I get the whole idea you're getting at here (long term) but the above example really doesn't factor in human behaviour. Am i expected to be that fastidious and calculate ev before I call for
But didnt you just calculate his possible hand? What about you hand? Doesnt this have anything to do with ev? And what about the wider range? If you calculate that is it still ev+?
Awesome graphics and explanation. I have an app in which you input the number of players on the hand, your cards and the table cards and then calculates two percentages; Win% and Equity%. What's the difference between Win% and Equity% ?
I hope you guys still answer questions on here, even though it's been a while since this was uploaded. At 3:49 you put Money Won ($W) as $13. Shouldn't that be $24 (current pot + your $11 call) since if you win the pot it will be $24? EV = (47% * $24) - (53% * $11) EV = ($11.28) - ($5.83) EV = $5.85
I see that is how the equation is written, but I'm trying to understand the Why behind it. It seems logical to include your call in the $won variable, since that will be the total pot and then multiply it by your equity to get the amount you'll win on average. It seems illogical not to include it.
There are 2 ways to get EV, one is the explained on the video (47%*13) - (53%*11)= 0.28 the other one is your but w a change, 47%*24 - 11 = 0.28 , and you can write it like 47%*(13+11) - 100%*11 >0 or " 47%*13+ 47%*11-100%*11" , and this is 47%*13 -53%*11 , so you cant write ev like 47%*13-53%*11 and 47%*24-11, same answer
Yes. Am example would be if you're big blind in a SnG, and the very first hand every single player goes all in. Even if you have pocket Aces, almost guaranteeing 2nd place and it's corresponding prize might be better than calling. One reason would be to limit variance, and another could be if the prizes are somewhat flat.
In terms of practical training, is it your goal to memorize all the results of your equity calculation so it becomes instinctual when you're at the felt?
From what I understand, and I'm very new still studdying, is that you generalize your opponantes range and memorize the odds of a handful of generalized ranges and go from there. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong. I have no clue what I'm doing haha. With experience you might note down a few hands and how they were played to later put them in a solver which might be helpful if you face the same situation again.
I just wish i could easily calculate the percentages for Win/Loss in the equations. How you came up with the range of cards he has just doesn’t make sense.
You get a feel (with improved W%/L% estimation capabilities) the more you play with a tool like Equilab between sessions. As for the ranges, my complete article here should help: www.splitsuit.com/poker-ranges-reading
Want to see more examples? This video goes through 6 preflop all-in examples and shows you how to calculate the EV in all of them: th-cam.com/video/LkOhbn81Q_o/w-d-xo.html
This is by far the most clear and concise explanation of EV I've heard. Well done and thank you very much.
yessir
*all in*
Me- hold on let me whip out my calculator real quick
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Lol
It's actually legal to do that. And smart. But you won't do it because it's too funny 😅
The more I learn about this game the more I get confused.
@@AG-ur1lj ahh yes the classic, losing player comes to a comment section and pretends he's a winning player. Sad
U gotta play more instead of "learn" more
And always are there some fool with 0,1% of luck and river always be that one card for him. I can be pro but there is always some fool that calls you all in with 6 9 suitedand hits three of kind orsometh8ng better against your KK or AA
I thought people would just understand this before even learning poker. It's like just looking at a balance and telling if 1 side outweighs the other
😄
It wasn't til I started learning poker that I wished I'd listened to my maths teacher more.
Tony England lol no joke
The maths in poker isn't that hard because more often than not you are dealing with the same scenarios over and over again and in most cases the math has been done for you elsewhere. Very rarely do you need to do the math at the table, most situations should be covered in your study away from the table, and when you are at the table it's more about feel based on the theory you've learned away from the table.
+Tony England I see you replied to this, but your comment has disappeared, but I can read it from my email, do you still want a response?
24magiccarrot I would like to talk with you more I want some poker friends :)
@@24magiccarrot I realise this is a very late reply but yes, I'd love a response. I have no idea where my comment went!
"In the long run, the math will bring everything back to EV."
Never played on PokerStars, huh?
In pokerstars +ev also depends on if you have the bigger stack 😂
I installed 4 days ago and after a few tables I could tell something fishy was going on. People getting rivered all the time and beautiful hands (straights, flush, full house). Betting with a set was really scary.
When the Jokerstars RNG chip goes into Entertainment mode!
@@9charlie84 First of all, I've been playing for years and never saw something about a badge. Second of all I've cashed over 60k and know some other good players that have cashed more than that so you probably just suck at the game
cenifh are you sure that you didn’t play 6+ hold em?
Jeez finally somebody that can explain the fundamentals... thumbs up, faved, subbed....
Yeah, good luck getting out your computer during a live game. This is only for people who play online and, even then, it's kind of stupid.
David ummmm... no, just fucking no.... holy fuck, please don’t breed...
@@chrisgolden1162 No Chris! We want people like him at the poker table.
David whale
@@renoraider9817u not fooling anybody, your not a winning player. Get a life
The tricky part here is that EV over millions of hands is tough for any human being to consistently stick with. When you factor in tilting and misreading ranges this equation becomes quite skewed especially for the average player. I agree with everything he said but keeping with these principles is extremely difficult when you take into all of the variables that the average player endures. When I say average player, I mean recreational players not trying to make a living, but trying to enjoy themselves while making some money at the same time. Just be aware of what kind of player you are before you apply these principles whole heartedly. Just my 2 cents...
True. That is reality. But with the knowledge of odds, we can instinctively understand correct plays and this gives us an edge over this that do not even consider these mathematical principles.
Yes. But this video makes a great explanation of what EV is in a single instance against random villain's range.
Which is exactly why if you can study and master this, you're gonna make some money
@@Drew_Guitarist Gday Drew, thanks very much for pointing that out. I'm rec player with ambitions of going pro in two years from now. At one stage I was thinking just get better at reading people's ranges, then I won't need to rely on EV calculations as I can simply choose correct plays. Yes, this will give us an edge! Cheers
If you practice this equation at home hundreds of times, I promise, you’ll be able to do it in seconds. Hardest part is memorizing equity for the hands you place them on during a live game. No calculators allowed at the table. I’m no Rainman, but I believe it’s possible to memorize equity if you’re tenacious enough.
I understand the math. It’s the “over a period of time” thing that usually gets in the way of this mathematical approach. Many folks gone broke because they ran out of money before they ran out of time.
I’ve always started small, begin with 10$ betting tables and keep that money there slowly growing and occasionally take money off it if you need to buy something (assuming it’s reasonable). If your money collapses then you only have to spend 10$ to try and rebuild it
This is why BRM (bankroll management) is key too =)
Without an understanding of Bankroll management you just wont make it, you can be the best player on the planet , the Lebron of poker , you will mizerably fail!
There is one part of this that I am struggling with. I understand how this can be proven mathematically if we could be certain about our opponent's range. But how can we be certain that our assumption about his range isn't wrong? For example, what if A-J & K-Q wasn't truly in his range? Wouldn't this completely throw off our calculation? And what about someone who is trying to play like Phil Ivey & puts in a 5th raise preflop holding 5-2... How do we put him on a range? Do we just say that his range is any 2 cards?
You need to assume opponent's range then calculate EV, that means you can't be certain what real EV is but it helps with decision-making
Ok but how do you figure out what the win and loss percentage will be without a site like pokerstrategy? And how do you know which range of hands of our opponent to consider?
Elly Rust watching you oppenents play for a while will help you understand their ranges and tendencies. With practise you can become more educated on good (+ev) or bad (-ev) spots.
I read that most of the range vs range stats studying happens off-game, also in more common situations experienced players will simply "know" a play is good EV because he/she has run into it countless times
This video demonstrates how sophisticated poker players play poker and why they win more often than amateurs. They are playing at a totally different level of complexity. It also explains why most of the pros take a long time to make a decision whether to call or fold. I never this type of calculus was going on in the background of most hands.
Great explanation. im wondering what will be quick shortcuts that one can think on the spot situation. any tips?
The biggest key to all of these strategies is sample size. If youre a rec that plays every once in a while variance can wreck using an ev strategy just because the number of hands can struggle to balance the beat in close ev spots.
Regardless you wanna make the most optimal play though
"The math is simple", proceeds to use an equity calculator...
This simplified EV for me so much, thank you
This is a great video, and does a wonderful job explaining this concept. At the end of the day though doesn’t this just come to put more money on good hands, and less money on bad hands?
When calculating the win percentage what calculation do you do, all possible hands that they could have that would beat us compared to where we could beat them? If so does that include every card in the pack or just expected range? And if the latter how could we possibly come to a positive eg in the example given the fact the player went all in suggesting their range is likely high card pairs or ace with face card
How do you decide your opponent's range of hands you should use to calculate equity?
Nic Turuk in short. You’re going to guess. The longer you’re at the table and the longer you play with specific people you can put them on a range of hands, based on their actions, bets and their showdowns. Then you need to know your win % based on the range you put that person on.
No, this is not bs, this is how it's done. If you're playing with some crazy guy with crazy hands like that, you are probably playing with amateurs. It is really hard to play against amateur because the range they are playing is often really wide, and is because of that we have cases like the Hellmuth's "He called me with a Q 10, honey" meme. But as Chris said, if you are playing for a long time with this "funny fcker", you will be able to discover that he plays those hands and because of that, the range for this "funny fcker" will be really wide. But the math is the same.
You don't need to believe me, or believe Chris Leung tho. If you need to hear the same thing we are saying, but from a pro, search for Negreanu's tips videos, he post it often.
@Marek Mega that's why you always raise in preflop, keep away the limpers!
@@mathiashls link the video
Based on where that player is positioned at the table.
How do you think of a person's ranges on the spot
What kind of sandwich they had at the table and how loosey goosey they were eating it. The more loosey goosey, the bigger the range.
U just see what hands they win with . Because a person who always wins win aces will always bluf a few times u just gotta catch em on the bluff lol
What about the rake? Wouldnt it give the hand -ev?
In micro stakes cash games their range here would be AA, KK, AK, and AQ suited. Generally not much else when they open shove
If you're still confused, check out a statistics course. Concepts like EV and law of large numbers can be applied to a wide range of problems outside of games
Finally a good poker channel to subscribe
Is there any way to do this calculations quickly? In live poker I really don't know how can I calculate equity this quick
but you use equilab here, but that is not an option in live games. so how do you calculate the ev in live games?
If you calculate Rake, it might not be profitable to make that call.
Also, in order to reduce variance, its better to let some equity goes. It might not seems optimal on the long run, but it stabilize your bankroll and your psychologic and this is +EV.
How is equity calculated?
Would you suggest using ‘universal’ ranges(GTO) to start.. adjusting based off of play/information found ..?
But how do we pedict our opponent range accurately ..as a simply a slightest change can lead to negative ev from positive ev.
When do we need to calculate the actual EV? Would it be suitable to just use the equity to pot odds to calculate if its a positive EV call and act accordingly?
This is all fascinating but how do I find this specific "fish" at the table?
In my opinion the correct form is:
EV_FOLD = -$1
EV_CALL = -$0.72
EV_CALL - EV_FOLD = +$0.28
It means for this specific situation for long term, if you call, you will lose $0.28 lesser.
In the other word, you will lose in both cases but it's better to call to lose lesser.
interesting
any good resources you know explaining this concept?
So, when you are in the tricky range and can not calculate it at the table, wouldn't be folding be the correct play; thus limiting your played hands to those situations where you are pretty sure you have a positive EV?
Folding would be the *safe* play, but it's easy to slide into being far too nitty.
@ThePokerBank But we are calculating these numbers in our head, and we are estimating the percentage change of winning [by estimating the range of hands our opponent will play], What if we are off by 3% in our calculation (which is not too far off for an estimate); now the EV is minus 17 cents (.45 x 13 = $5.88) - (.55 x 11 = $6.05). At the beginning of our poker playing career, can we really be expected to nail down [i.e. estimate our change of wining] the chance of winning with less than a 2% margin of error, so that we know when such a close bet is profitable (+EV)?
Fold is -1 in the aq example.
You’ve already spent the money, it’s a sunk cost
Playing it kinda fast as loose with the term “not too bad”....
I'm looking for a way to do this that doesn't involve me pulling out a ev calculator on my phone. Is there a way that i can do this in my head?
Practice between sessions so that you can estimate better in real-time. There isn't really any other way ime.
I have to say your videos are amazing and the information is gold. Thank you so much
Thanks Jack!
How do you calculate expected value of winning?? ie how does equilab calulate it
Great video that cleared up all my confusion. Thank you!
4:57. I have only a 47% chance to win but what makes it ev is the amount of the wager, i suck at math but heres my question, is it ev to only spend or wager $2 for a chance at 500 million? Im talking about powerball. Since im probably not going to ever win powerball it cant be positive ev.
It's a function of the size of your risk compared to the size of the reward and the % chance you can win the reward. I would suggest Googling to find out what the chance of a Powerball win is, how often the Powerball is won by a single person (since you might be sharing the win), and the taxes (since that also cuts into your "$W"). Happy exploring!
Awesome, really interesting video. Unfortunately, I don't understand how you decide your opponents range of hands or what "sevens plus" and "king queen plus" means. Could you explain that please?
Chris Cavani thanks Chris! 77+ means a player holds 77 and all pairs bigger (so 88, 99...KK,AA). And KQ+ means a player holds KQ and AQ. If you want to learn more about hand reading, SplitSuit is hosting a webinar on this exact topic soon that you'll want to checkout: www.splitsuit.com/hand-reading-webinar/
Great, cheers!
Still don't understand how we are suppossed to come up with EV% at the table. Using a software program is supposed to help us come up with a percentage and remember these when we play live?
You're not really going to be doing the math at the table. It's impossible unless you're some genius level mathematician. It's more about experience and intuition. You do these EV exercises in practice across various types of hands and it starts becoming principles you apply in real time for hands in relation to game circumstances like raising, calling, what kind of flop comes up, etc...
This guys has some good workbooks that, if you have the desire to get through and gain the experience, will help.
How do you calculate your move if it’s not a shove
How does this work when you’re not the final better in the round? Like you can’t tell how much you’ll win if there are more people left to bet after you?
Equity 47% means will win or tie 47% of the time ,win rate will be around ~42% with pokerstove or ~44% with equilab. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Maybe yes maybe no, because nome of the flops doesnt have tie
At 3:05 it sez that "in the long run" results will come back to expected value. This is sorta true. In the infinitely long run, actual value and expected value will meet an infinite number of times -- but they will also go infinitely far apart, guess what, an infinite number of times.
What the video does not tell us is, how long is the long run? The answer is, it varies.
You're welcome.
How accurate can I reasonably expect a hand range to be?
And wouldn't wild players completely ruin EV since they don't have an easily predictable range?
Not in the long run. Money is won from weak players that play their weak hands too far. Be ready for some wild swings with wild players though.
when you say milllion hand s you say that for instance in this example if you have this hand ace queend with this all in raise...that hands might become different days and on diferrent tables right??
How do you figure out opponents range
I understand the first round completely but how do you calculate the %W and %L for the second round and etc. ?
Do you mean flop by "second round"? Or something else?
@@ThePokerBank Like how you’ve described that throughout the first round it’s a .47 vs a .53 so during the second hand what’s the outcome of the %W and the %L and how did you came to that conclusion?
@@hexpinteasYou can calculate equity with a tool like Equilab: www.splitsuit.com/equilab-poker-software-video
@@ThePokerBank Thanks!
I have been playing poker for only 4 days and I really love it, but got to admit this is scary. But your videos are such a great help! Thanks for all the free videos you are offering us.
+Mell Snow you're very welcome Mell. Welcome to the wonderful world of poker!
dont start with this. theres a lot of basics you should learn first. just keep this in mind but dont actually worry about it yet
Care to share these first points of study?
Thanks
FK93209 starting hands,position,betting lines,board reading
Hi James, do the 11$ don't matter in the formula? We can win 24 instead of 13$. That would make the EV 5,45$. Or does EV ignore the money we can win back ?
Only money you've previously put in the pot gets included in the $W. Money you have not previously put in (like the $11 in this example) would only get accounted for as risk and not as reward. I hope that helps!
How do you factor in the odds of a split pot? Or is that just ignored?
I want to ask you what do I have to do if I flop a top pair but the flop is draw heavy?When do I have to make a protection bet? What type of flop is good to make that move? I was thinking that a protecion bet on a draw heavy flop,if the opponent has some kind of projects , would be called because if we bet 80 % of the pot is a good call statistically with a project: ex.pot size 100 we bet 80 and the opponent calculates his flush draw EV = 0.35 * 260 - 0.65 * 80 = 91 - 52 = +39 .Can you give me hints about when and how to do a good protection bet? Waiting for your reply, I thanks you for all your videos and comments.
Lastellaofficial You might want to watch this video first: th-cam.com/video/ZweW1bmiYLU/w-d-xo.html (since it dispels the focus on "protection bets")
Hi I’m still new to all of this and I’m confused at how to understand quickly what the win% and lose% would be for the hands. I know working one out will solve the other but does anyone have a easy method to being able to plug that percentage while in game?
Thanks!
I would just study away from the table than plug it in at the table. There are plenty of charts and sites to use if you want to know what the optimal strategies are for each spot, and look at enough of those and you'll get a decent idea of what your equity in the pot is and what your general strategy should be.
I dont have every spot memorized but I have a rough idea of where I'm at and my guesstimates on my EV normally fluctuates between 5% and 10% from my actual EV in hands that get to showdown.
Big thing to remember is this is a Basic EV formula. A standard EV formula should include fold equity, which means how much money you make when your opponent folds. Equity in the hand does matter, but remember that equity assumes that when called no more betting occurs, so while at the time you only own 43% of the pot it may increase or decrease based on what cards come out, so if you can get your opponent to fold their equity and you know you can get them to fold at a frequency that is profitable it is sometimes plus EV to bet even if your Equity is awful like 24%
My suggestion for a decent site to get started on is PokerCoaching.com since it has the basics and the advanced should you want to go that far
@@wesleykim1758 thank you brother massive help
I understand the ev calculation but how on earth do you get %W? your opponent(s) could have any of over 150 dif hand combinations, which is then compounded by the potential community cards combinations
Play around with an equity calculator (like Equilab) for a bit to get a feel for it. There's a lot of practice of that sort of thing in my Preflop & Math Workbook if you prefer: www.splitsuit.com/poker-preflop-math-workbook
@@ThePokerBank thanks, I'll give that a go
@@leonh4799 Cheers!
great stuff ! what's the best ways to estimate an opponents range ? generally, will you play tighter against 'erratic' players, that could get lucky ie- don't have a well founded range..?
how to play fish/players; suss them out over the long term ?
thanks ! :))PO
I am wondering how do you know the % in the first place.
some other option for equitylab for mac? or online
how do you simulate the hand? is it manual design or you using an app?
but you're guessing a range and the math is based on an assumption, so how can the calculation be reliable?
Does it mean that I can use EV only playing Heads Up?
No because you'd still need to figure out your opponents range of hands not everyone plays the same way heads up.
where can i go to practice
Isn't your position an important variable. Whose to say everyone else folds? Let's say another person with a similar range calls/raised doesnt that drastically reduce your ev?
Law of statistics and probability.
If they can win, they can loose too
In this example everyone else folded and the small blind shoved on the big blind, so he only has the small blind to worry about
In this case a similar range in what's basically a heads-up means that statistically both players will have the same chance of winning the pot for value. BUT bear in mind that there's nothing in the EV formula that takes into account the other player's hand/s. It's only calculating YOUR expected value based on YOUR hand. You need to look at other factors when deciding whether you want to call, fold or raise from there based on what other players are doing (like what position you're in)
Yeah absolutely. I’m probably playing the wrong way but I consider position just as important if not more then ranges and EV
I have no idea (prevideo) of this EV. If I say I have an un-worded feel. But I can teach you about "pase" as you can guess, once someone starts one. They all follow it, leading to an all around bluff control
Thats so fucking interesting. I just started to try to learn about the Maths and Strategy behind poker. I would have never thought how complex this game actually is.
is there any way that we can calculate Equity without a poker calculator when we are playing live at cash online tables? any suggestions about it?
With lots of off-table practice you will begin to get a good internal feel for Equity. But you can also use the 4/2 rule to estimate equity when drawing...
Is it legal to use equilab while playing online ?
If we don’t have the strategy poker how I find the present win or lose ???
I have noticed occasionally I run well and win a lot but most often just get bored and frustrated with rubbish cards and missed flops.
Don't look at the cards after folding, helps a lot with tilt management
@@marialuiza1122 Yes,nothing worse than folding a gutshot and hitting it on the river hahaha.
Ur always Gunna fold and get amazing hands and wished u stayed in . Never worry about that
I appreciated Eeore explaning this
So how do I quickly calculate this in a game?
This is great for calling but is there one for betting?
5:12 sorry but u lost me there, what do you mean by that 'its not just +EV but its also optimal play', can you give me an example where it is +EV but not an optimal play, thank you.
It's +EV to open-shove AA preflop. But it's probably not the most profitable play to make...so the open-shove is +EV but not optimal.
James (SplitSuit) how can you even determine that if its profitable or not?
running math on your lines and lots of off-table exploration and study =)
to studdy what?
Thank you, easy to understand for the layman.
Cheers!
How much does a pot size matter here? Eg what if he shoved $30.. would that change our decision to call?
ofcouse it would, but thats more of a matter of knowing your opponant, is he/she a very loose player who plays every hand? or would your opponant only do this with pocket aces? plus, how much is $30 to that player? it is a whole lot of difference when his stack is $600, when you more easily put $30 in the pot than whenever your stack is only$50. this is why there is no best strategy to poker, there is a matimathical side to poker but there is a psychological side as wel
Cash table only? Tournament seems all about the sequence of events that lead to to this hand and announced coin toss
why do you also factor the money you put in into winnings?
When doing single-action EV, any money you've previously invested in the pot belongs to the pot. Otherwise your up/downside numbers would mess up the accounting =)
Do you have a video that takes into account the effect of rake on your EV and ranges you play? I play in some 5%-10% uncapped rake games. With the hand you showed with AQ, I would fold in a real game given the range you assigned the villain, due to the rake (47% chance win vs the range you assigned, and 45% pot odds). Although, there are other considerations like image where sometimes you have to give action to get action with your monsters.
+MOOOMIX we don't discuss rake a ton because it's so variable and usually not too huge of a factor. That being said, in a 5-10% UNCAPPED RAKE game the rake will bury you. If possible, avoid that game like the plague since it's not long term viable.
Good explanation. Now, couple this with PROPER BANKROLL SIZE for correct game, I'm the long run you should be a winner, break even at best. Want to get to +EV quicker as a beginner? Stop chasing runner runner IMMEDIATELY.
Thanks for your videos James, these are very helpful! I have a comment about situations like these when it comes to tournament poker. I understand that most of these videos will suit cash games more than tournaments. If this situation happened early in a tournament is this still a call? Is it worth getting into a coin flip situation? For tournaments is it wrong that I think folding here is +EV? I just feel that calling and winning < calling and loosing thus busting out of a tournament that I could have gone deep in. Please share your thoughts on this!
You are very welcome Tim.
A +EV situation is a +EV situation, regardless of whether it's in a cash game or MTT. That being said, in MTTs, SNGs, etc. you do need to consider the one-life-to-live mentality and gauge whether taking a thin + EV spot is best...or if your overall edge in the tournament is great enough where you should pass on a super thin + EV spot, even though it's technically + EV. That's the whole artform of tournament poker...balancing + EV plays with optimal plays given the exact parameters of that stage of a tournament
James (SplitSuit) Very Well Put!! Thanks for your reply!!
Tim H Thanks, and you are very welcome
i know this is old but it's a great question so i wanted to contribute to the debate (even though im no expert).
i think that in a tournament the villain would have a way smaller range because he's only got that one chance to win aswell. so unless he's a total maniac he'll probably only go all in with premium pairs
fanicia42 if that's the case (that the range is smaller), the video gives you the tools/formula to plug in that new range and get a correct EV. These videos are all about teaching a framework, and in this case you can just plug in your range assumptions into the math and get your exact answer :)
Is this only when a opponent moves all in? Or can we use it also on the flop or on the turn or on the river?
The Fish you'd want to get familiar with the advanced EV equation to calculate a spot where there action isn't complete yet: th-cam.com/video/ym1774AC5Ww/w-d-xo.html
The Poker Bank Thank u so much!
0.28$ ev but 0.5$ rake lol
Kieu Mi Phan avoid casinos. Play at home with friends
Kieu Mi Phan 1.2$ rake)
It's actually a fair point and something that no poker video or book seems to cover, in close ev situations your probably ought to be folding because of the rake.
I think this is the reason a lot of good players struggle when they play online or go to the casino after crushing a local non raked game. If you need 3 to 1 to call in a raked game and you are getting exactly 3 to 1 to call then you should fold because the rake makes it negative ev.
True in my casino game £24 pot would be £1.25 + £1 high hand jackpot.... £2.25 or 9.5% of the pot. 5% capped at 100 isn't too bad IMO.
@@24magiccarrot play tournaments :))
so... why do we include our own money ($1) into the winnings of $12 (W=$13) when we dont include our loss the same way? ie. wouldnt we end up losing 12 and not the 11 stated in the video? trying to wrap my head around this.
Hey Robert. The big blind of $1, once posted, doesn't belong to you. It belongs to the pot and thus it's included in the winnings =)
Made me not want to quit poker with yoir videos especially this one. Very clear and in depth and informative. Thank you.
Thanks Reborn!
Why do they have to be all in for this example? Before you even get into the math, I'm gonna play aq and take the opportunity to force someone out at the risk of losing a small part of my stack. I get the whole idea you're getting at here (long term) but the above example really doesn't factor in human behaviour. Am i expected to be that fastidious and calculate ev before I call for
But didnt you just calculate his possible hand? What about you hand? Doesnt this have anything to do with ev? And what about the wider range? If you calculate that is it still ev+?
learning statistics and probability outside school is just 10x better
Dont know if you'll reply to this but heres hoping....how do u factor in implied odds when using the formula??
Hey Ryan. You can use the Advanced EV formula and modify it to account for future value: th-cam.com/video/ym1774AC5Ww/w-d-xo.html
Awesome graphics and explanation. I have an app in which you input the number of players on the hand, your cards and the table cards and then calculates two percentages; Win% and Equity%. What's the difference between Win% and Equity% ?
James once again great video, find all your videos very informative and useful in my day to day grind keep up the good work .
Thanks Scottyt
I hope you guys still answer questions on here, even though it's been a while since this was uploaded.
At 3:49 you put Money Won ($W) as $13. Shouldn't that be $24 (current pot + your $11 call) since if you win the pot it will be $24?
EV = (47% * $24) - (53% * $11)
EV = ($11.28) - ($5.83)
EV = $5.85
Hey Titus. You do not 'win' your call - you only win what's in the pot at the moment BEFORE you would call :)
I see that is how the equation is written, but I'm trying to understand the Why behind it.
It seems logical to include your call in the $won variable, since that will be the total pot and then multiply it by your equity to get the amount you'll win on average. It seems illogical not to include it.
There are 2 ways to get EV, one is the explained on the video (47%*13) - (53%*11)= 0.28 the other one is your but w a change, 47%*24 - 11 = 0.28 , and you can write it like 47%*(13+11) - 100%*11 >0 or " 47%*13+ 47%*11-100%*11" , and this is 47%*13 -53%*11 , so you cant write ev like 47%*13-53%*11 and 47%*24-11, same answer
Even if the EV is positive, can the good play be to fold? IF you are big stacked or if you know you are better than other players at the table ?
Yes. Am example would be if you're big blind in a SnG, and the very first hand every single player goes all in. Even if you have pocket Aces, almost guaranteeing 2nd place and it's corresponding prize might be better than calling. One reason would be to limit variance, and another could be if the prizes are somewhat flat.
In terms of practical training, is it your goal to memorize all the results of your equity calculation so it becomes instinctual when you're at the felt?
From what I understand, and I'm very new still studdying, is that you generalize your opponantes range and memorize the odds of a handful of generalized ranges and go from there. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong. I have no clue what I'm doing haha.
With experience you might note down a few hands and how they were played to later put them in a solver which might be helpful if you face the same situation again.
I completely get it, but I have no idea how you could do this in your head to make decisions.
Practice makes perfect. Not a lot of people are naturally good at calculating things in their heads. Just keep practicing.
I just wish i could easily calculate the percentages for Win/Loss in the equations. How you came up with the range of cards he has just doesn’t make sense.
You get a feel (with improved W%/L% estimation capabilities) the more you play with a tool like Equilab between sessions. As for the ranges, my complete article here should help: www.splitsuit.com/poker-ranges-reading
What's does 77+ AJ/KQ mean??
Great video; thanks. I like the way you explain it while using the visuals.
+Cheryl Means thanks Cheryl!
do you take rake into consideration?
+Champainz47 in real examples, yes. rake reduces the $W by whatever the rake would be in your games.
and also can we use that equity when we are facing a decision in a MTT?
Most certainly! Equity is a huge element of MTT decisions