The Basics Of Poker EV | Poker Quick Plays
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
- Practice estimating and calculating EV between sessions with tons of exercises (and a complete answer key) with SplitSuit's Poker Math & Preflop Workbook: www.splitsuit.com/poker-prefl...
In this video you will learn all about #poker EV. #EV, short for expected value, is the mathematical way of saying "this play is expected to net me $X amount of money in the longrun." Learn why this is a longrun focused concept and how to calculate it with ease.
We go through the formula step-by-step to ensure you fully understand it and use an example to show its application in poker. If you are looking for more material on the concept, check out this free article: www.splitsuit.com/simple-poke...
Want to see more examples? This video goes through 6 preflop all-in examples and shows you how to calculate the EV in all of them: th-cam.com/video/LkOhbn81Q_o/w-d-xo.html
*all in*
Me- hold on let me whip out my calculator real quick
😂😂😂😂😂😂
This is by far the most clear and concise explanation of EV I've heard. Well done and thank you very much.
yessir
The more I learn about this game the more I get confused.
@@AG-ur1lj ahh yes the classic, losing player comes to a comment section and pretends he's a winning player. Sad
U gotta play more instead of "learn" more
And always are there some fool with 0,1% of luck and river always be that one card for him. I can be pro but there is always some fool that calls you all in with 6 9 suitedand hits three of kind orsometh8ng better against your KK or AA
I thought people would just understand this before even learning poker. It's like just looking at a balance and telling if 1 side outweighs the other
😄
Jeez finally somebody that can explain the fundamentals... thumbs up, faved, subbed....
Yeah, good luck getting out your computer during a live game. This is only for people who play online and, even then, it's kind of stupid.
David ummmm... no, just fucking no.... holy fuck, please don’t breed...
@@chrisgolden1162 No Chris! We want people like him at the poker table.
David whale
@@renoraider9817u not fooling anybody, your not a winning player. Get a life
It wasn't til I started learning poker that I wished I'd listened to my maths teacher more.
Tony England lol no joke
The maths in poker isn't that hard because more often than not you are dealing with the same scenarios over and over again and in most cases the math has been done for you elsewhere. Very rarely do you need to do the math at the table, most situations should be covered in your study away from the table, and when you are at the table it's more about feel based on the theory you've learned away from the table.
+Tony England I see you replied to this, but your comment has disappeared, but I can read it from my email, do you still want a response?
24magiccarrot I would like to talk with you more I want some poker friends :)
@@24magiccarrot I realise this is a very late reply but yes, I'd love a response. I have no idea where my comment went!
I understand the math. It’s the “over a period of time” thing that usually gets in the way of this mathematical approach. Many folks gone broke because they ran out of money before they ran out of time.
I’ve always started small, begin with 10$ betting tables and keep that money there slowly growing and occasionally take money off it if you need to buy something (assuming it’s reasonable). If your money collapses then you only have to spend 10$ to try and rebuild it
This is why BRM (bankroll management) is key too =)
Without an understanding of Bankroll management you just wont make it, you can be the best player on the planet , the Lebron of poker , you will mizerably fail!
"In the long run, the math will bring everything back to EV."
Never played on PokerStars, huh?
In pokerstars +ev also depends on if you have the bigger stack 😂
I installed 4 days ago and after a few tables I could tell something fishy was going on. People getting rivered all the time and beautiful hands (straights, flush, full house). Betting with a set was really scary.
When the Jokerstars RNG chip goes into Entertainment mode!
@@9charlie84 First of all, I've been playing for years and never saw something about a badge. Second of all I've cashed over 60k and know some other good players that have cashed more than that so you probably just suck at the game
cenifh are you sure that you didn’t play 6+ hold em?
This simplified EV for me so much, thank you
I have to say your videos are amazing and the information is gold. Thank you so much
Thanks Jack!
Great explanation. Thank you so much!
James once again great video, find all your videos very informative and useful in my day to day grind keep up the good work .
Thanks Scottyt
Amazing video! Super clear, the graphics are simple and function! Easy to understand.
+JP Foster thanks JP!
Made me not want to quit poker with yoir videos especially this one. Very clear and in depth and informative. Thank you.
Thanks Reborn!
The tricky part here is that EV over millions of hands is tough for any human being to consistently stick with. When you factor in tilting and misreading ranges this equation becomes quite skewed especially for the average player. I agree with everything he said but keeping with these principles is extremely difficult when you take into all of the variables that the average player endures. When I say average player, I mean recreational players not trying to make a living, but trying to enjoy themselves while making some money at the same time. Just be aware of what kind of player you are before you apply these principles whole heartedly. Just my 2 cents...
True. That is reality. But with the knowledge of odds, we can instinctively understand correct plays and this gives us an edge over this that do not even consider these mathematical principles.
Yes. But this video makes a great explanation of what EV is in a single instance against random villain's range.
Which is exactly why if you can study and master this, you're gonna make some money
@@Drew_Guitarist Gday Drew, thanks very much for pointing that out. I'm rec player with ambitions of going pro in two years from now. At one stage I was thinking just get better at reading people's ranges, then I won't need to rely on EV calculations as I can simply choose correct plays. Yes, this will give us an edge! Cheers
If you practice this equation at home hundreds of times, I promise, you’ll be able to do it in seconds. Hardest part is memorizing equity for the hands you place them on during a live game. No calculators allowed at the table. I’m no Rainman, but I believe it’s possible to memorize equity if you’re tenacious enough.
Great video; thanks. I like the way you explain it while using the visuals.
+Cheryl Means thanks Cheryl!
Great explanation. im wondering what will be quick shortcuts that one can think on the spot situation. any tips?
Great video that cleared up all my confusion. Thank you!
Thank you James. You are the greatest!👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
I appreciated Eeore explaning this
Awesome explanation! Thank You! :)
Wow you are soooo good at explaining things. Thanks so much.
Awesome explanation! Thanks a ton!
McGavel1 You're very welcome!
Very helpful. All your videos are great.
Thank you, very well presented.
This video demonstrates how sophisticated poker players play poker and why they win more often than amateurs. They are playing at a totally different level of complexity. It also explains why most of the pros take a long time to make a decision whether to call or fold. I never this type of calculus was going on in the background of most hands.
Finally a good poker channel to subscribe
Wow, this is gold!
Wow. This was explained so well. Thank you bro!
You're very welcome Kia!
Great job!
Thank you for simplifying EV
You're very welcome Thomas!
Such an Insightful Video
Thank you...ths was clear and helpful
How is equity calculated?
Would you suggest using ‘universal’ ranges(GTO) to start.. adjusting based off of play/information found ..?
When do we need to calculate the actual EV? Would it be suitable to just use the equity to pot odds to calculate if its a positive EV call and act accordingly?
Brilliant video James. Thank you very much for imparting your wisdom. Just one question: Are there any particular ways you'd recommend practicing EV calculations?
For sure! Just play with this free spreadsheet for awhile: redchippoker.com/free-poker-ev-spreadsheet/
Simple and straight to the point! Thank you so much!! Great material!
Two questions though:
When you say that we have to practice EV calculations, do you mean in a session review or during the hand? It seems easier to select some hands and analyse them by EV perspective to see if we acted correctly, is that right?
Also, if I'm in a hand and make decisions based on good pot odds, would it mean +EV decisions automatically?
you look ugly. but to answer your question if you study this stuff outside the session then youll find spots where that studying is applicable. nobody calculates their actual EV. you guesstimate based on opponents range, your hand, and the board
@@jbaru1211 why'd u do him like that
when you say milllion hand s you say that for instance in this example if you have this hand ace queend with this all in raise...that hands might become different days and on diferrent tables right??
great stuff ! what's the best ways to estimate an opponents range ? generally, will you play tighter against 'erratic' players, that could get lucky ie- don't have a well founded range..?
how to play fish/players; suss them out over the long term ?
thanks ! :))PO
This is great thank you
You're very welcome!
I have been playing poker for only 4 days and I really love it, but got to admit this is scary. But your videos are such a great help! Thanks for all the free videos you are offering us.
+Mell Snow you're very welcome Mell. Welcome to the wonderful world of poker!
dont start with this. theres a lot of basics you should learn first. just keep this in mind but dont actually worry about it yet
Care to share these first points of study?
Thanks
FK93209 starting hands,position,betting lines,board reading
There is one part of this that I am struggling with. I understand how this can be proven mathematically if we could be certain about our opponent's range. But how can we be certain that our assumption about his range isn't wrong? For example, what if A-J & K-Q wasn't truly in his range? Wouldn't this completely throw off our calculation? And what about someone who is trying to play like Phil Ivey & puts in a 5th raise preflop holding 5-2... How do we put him on a range? Do we just say that his range is any 2 cards?
You can't. It's just a framework for reasoning. If the person is an idiot or overly aggressive it can throw things way off. This is just a baseline. First hand I had today some idiot went all-in with k9o pre flop and he was on my left. I backed way off until he was gone. I knew that any hand I played he could just dump all-in and I'd end up in some 55% to 45% situation and stand a good chance to lose. But until someone exposes themselves by their actions, it's a good place to start. Those elite guys mix it up like crazy, fold well and bluff well. Even some of the people who just play for $10 to $20 are pretty good.
Awesome graphics and explanation. I have an app in which you input the number of players on the hand, your cards and the table cards and then calculates two percentages; Win% and Equity%. What's the difference between Win% and Equity% ?
great explanation! thank you
You're very welcome Carlos!
thanks!
Ok but how do you figure out what the win and loss percentage will be without a site like pokerstrategy? And how do you know which range of hands of our opponent to consider?
Elly Rust watching you oppenents play for a while will help you understand their ranges and tendencies. With practise you can become more educated on good (+ev) or bad (-ev) spots.
I read that most of the range vs range stats studying happens off-game, also in more common situations experienced players will simply "know" a play is good EV because he/she has run into it countless times
Great video thanks! Subscribed
This is where you start! Nice video mate
+Beer-Grinder thanks!
If you calculate Rake, it might not be profitable to make that call.
Also, in order to reduce variance, its better to let some equity goes. It might not seems optimal on the long run, but it stabilize your bankroll and your psychologic and this is +EV.
Thanks for your videos James, these are very helpful! I have a comment about situations like these when it comes to tournament poker. I understand that most of these videos will suit cash games more than tournaments. If this situation happened early in a tournament is this still a call? Is it worth getting into a coin flip situation? For tournaments is it wrong that I think folding here is +EV? I just feel that calling and winning < calling and loosing thus busting out of a tournament that I could have gone deep in. Please share your thoughts on this!
You are very welcome Tim.
A +EV situation is a +EV situation, regardless of whether it's in a cash game or MTT. That being said, in MTTs, SNGs, etc. you do need to consider the one-life-to-live mentality and gauge whether taking a thin + EV spot is best...or if your overall edge in the tournament is great enough where you should pass on a super thin + EV spot, even though it's technically + EV. That's the whole artform of tournament poker...balancing + EV plays with optimal plays given the exact parameters of that stage of a tournament
James (SplitSuit) Very Well Put!! Thanks for your reply!!
Tim H Thanks, and you are very welcome
i know this is old but it's a great question so i wanted to contribute to the debate (even though im no expert).
i think that in a tournament the villain would have a way smaller range because he's only got that one chance to win aswell. so unless he's a total maniac he'll probably only go all in with premium pairs
fanicia42 if that's the case (that the range is smaller), the video gives you the tools/formula to plug in that new range and get a correct EV. These videos are all about teaching a framework, and in this case you can just plug in your range assumptions into the math and get your exact answer :)
Playing it kinda fast as loose with the term “not too bad”....
Awesome, really interesting video. Unfortunately, I don't understand how you decide your opponents range of hands or what "sevens plus" and "king queen plus" means. Could you explain that please?
Chris Cavani thanks Chris! 77+ means a player holds 77 and all pairs bigger (so 88, 99...KK,AA). And KQ+ means a player holds KQ and AQ. If you want to learn more about hand reading, SplitSuit is hosting a webinar on this exact topic soon that you'll want to checkout: www.splitsuit.com/hand-reading-webinar/
Great, cheers!
great video -thank you
Easy call right? When you were explaining opponents range i thought you would go way wider considering they only have $12 and are SB vs BB here.. great explanation though sir!
great explanation. thanks
You're very welcome Chris!
how do you simulate the hand? is it manual design or you using an app?
Do you have a video that takes into account the effect of rake on your EV and ranges you play? I play in some 5%-10% uncapped rake games. With the hand you showed with AQ, I would fold in a real game given the range you assigned the villain, due to the rake (47% chance win vs the range you assigned, and 45% pot odds). Although, there are other considerations like image where sometimes you have to give action to get action with your monsters.
+MOOOMIX we don't discuss rake a ton because it's so variable and usually not too huge of a factor. That being said, in a 5-10% UNCAPPED RAKE game the rake will bury you. If possible, avoid that game like the plague since it's not long term viable.
The biggest key to all of these strategies is sample size. If youre a rec that plays every once in a while variance can wreck using an ev strategy just because the number of hands can struggle to balance the beat in close ev spots.
Regardless you wanna make the most optimal play though
Amazing video!
Thank you SO much
You're very welcome!
How would you be able to do this in your head quickly, or do you use some sort of program to do so?
It's impossible to calculate the exactly correct number every time. You'll need to gamble on how accurate your read is, of your opponents range for example.
where can i go to practice
This is all fascinating but how do I find this specific "fish" at the table?
In micro stakes cash games their range here would be AA, KK, AK, and AQ suited. Generally not much else when they open shove
I want to ask you what do I have to do if I flop a top pair but the flop is draw heavy?When do I have to make a protection bet? What type of flop is good to make that move? I was thinking that a protecion bet on a draw heavy flop,if the opponent has some kind of projects , would be called because if we bet 80 % of the pot is a good call statistically with a project: ex.pot size 100 we bet 80 and the opponent calculates his flush draw EV = 0.35 * 260 - 0.65 * 80 = 91 - 52 = +39 .Can you give me hints about when and how to do a good protection bet? Waiting for your reply, I thanks you for all your videos and comments.
Lastellaofficial You might want to watch this video first: th-cam.com/video/ZweW1bmiYLU/w-d-xo.html (since it dispels the focus on "protection bets")
I have no idea (prevideo) of this EV. If I say I have an un-worded feel. But I can teach you about "pase" as you can guess, once someone starts one. They all follow it, leading to an all around bluff control
How do you decide your opponent's range of hands you should use to calculate equity?
Nic Turuk in short. You’re going to guess. The longer you’re at the table and the longer you play with specific people you can put them on a range of hands, based on their actions, bets and their showdowns. Then you need to know your win % based on the range you put that person on.
No, this is not bs, this is how it's done. If you're playing with some crazy guy with crazy hands like that, you are probably playing with amateurs. It is really hard to play against amateur because the range they are playing is often really wide, and is because of that we have cases like the Hellmuth's "He called me with a Q 10, honey" meme. But as Chris said, if you are playing for a long time with this "funny fcker", you will be able to discover that he plays those hands and because of that, the range for this "funny fcker" will be really wide. But the math is the same.
You don't need to believe me, or believe Chris Leung tho. If you need to hear the same thing we are saying, but from a pro, search for Negreanu's tips videos, he post it often.
@Marek Mega that's why you always raise in preflop, keep away the limpers!
@@mathiashls link the video
Based on where that player is positioned at the table.
Great video!
some other option for equitylab for mac? or online
and also can we use that equity when we are facing a decision in a MTT?
Most certainly! Equity is a huge element of MTT decisions
What about the rake? Wouldnt it give the hand -ev?
How do you factor in the odds of a split pot? Or is that just ignored?
How do you think of a person's ranges on the spot
Their stack, table position and past behaviour are a good start.
What kind of sandwich they had at the table and how loosey goosey they were eating it. The more loosey goosey, the bigger the range.
U just see what hands they win with . Because a person who always wins win aces will always bluf a few times u just gotta catch em on the bluff lol
This is great for calling but is there one for betting?
So, when you are in the tricky range and can not calculate it at the table, wouldn't be folding be the correct play; thus limiting your played hands to those situations where you are pretty sure you have a positive EV?
Folding would be the *safe* play, but it's easy to slide into being far too nitty.
@ThePokerBank But we are calculating these numbers in our head, and we are estimating the percentage change of winning [by estimating the range of hands our opponent will play], What if we are off by 3% in our calculation (which is not too far off for an estimate); now the EV is minus 17 cents (.45 x 13 = $5.88) - (.55 x 11 = $6.05). At the beginning of our poker playing career, can we really be expected to nail down [i.e. estimate our change of wining] the chance of winning with less than a 2% margin of error, so that we know when such a close bet is profitable (+EV)?
How do you calculate expected value of winning?? ie how does equilab calulate it
good vid dude...
Deependra Vikram thanks!
Even if the EV is positive, can the good play be to fold? IF you are big stacked or if you know you are better than other players at the table ?
Yes. Am example would be if you're big blind in a SnG, and the very first hand every single player goes all in. Even if you have pocket Aces, almost guaranteeing 2nd place and it's corresponding prize might be better than calling. One reason would be to limit variance, and another could be if the prizes are somewhat flat.
Is it legal to use equilab while playing online ?
Is this only when a opponent moves all in? Or can we use it also on the flop or on the turn or on the river?
The Fish you'd want to get familiar with the advanced EV equation to calculate a spot where there action isn't complete yet: th-cam.com/video/ym1774AC5Ww/w-d-xo.html
The Poker Bank Thank u so much!
is there any way that we can calculate Equity without a poker calculator when we are playing live at cash online tables? any suggestions about it?
With lots of off-table practice you will begin to get a good internal feel for Equity. But you can also use the 4/2 rule to estimate equity when drawing...
Hi James, do the 11$ don't matter in the formula? We can win 24 instead of 13$. That would make the EV 5,45$. Or does EV ignore the money we can win back ?
Only money you've previously put in the pot gets included in the $W. Money you have not previously put in (like the $11 in this example) would only get accounted for as risk and not as reward. I hope that helps!
In terms of practical training, is it your goal to memorize all the results of your equity calculation so it becomes instinctual when you're at the felt?
From what I understand, and I'm very new still studdying, is that you generalize your opponantes range and memorize the odds of a handful of generalized ranges and go from there. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong. I have no clue what I'm doing haha.
With experience you might note down a few hands and how they were played to later put them in a solver which might be helpful if you face the same situation again.
Adding more _pairs_ to the shover's range _does not_ improve your +EV. However, adding unpaired hands does.
But how do we pedict our opponent range accurately ..as a simply a slightest change can lead to negative ev from positive ev.
If we don’t have the strategy poker how I find the present win or lose ???
"The math is simple", proceeds to use an equity calculator...
Hi I’m still new to all of this and I’m confused at how to understand quickly what the win% and lose% would be for the hands. I know working one out will solve the other but does anyone have a easy method to being able to plug that percentage while in game?
Thanks!
I would just study away from the table than plug it in at the table. There are plenty of charts and sites to use if you want to know what the optimal strategies are for each spot, and look at enough of those and you'll get a decent idea of what your equity in the pot is and what your general strategy should be.
I dont have every spot memorized but I have a rough idea of where I'm at and my guesstimates on my EV normally fluctuates between 5% and 10% from my actual EV in hands that get to showdown.
Big thing to remember is this is a Basic EV formula. A standard EV formula should include fold equity, which means how much money you make when your opponent folds. Equity in the hand does matter, but remember that equity assumes that when called no more betting occurs, so while at the time you only own 43% of the pot it may increase or decrease based on what cards come out, so if you can get your opponent to fold their equity and you know you can get them to fold at a frequency that is profitable it is sometimes plus EV to bet even if your Equity is awful like 24%
My suggestion for a decent site to get started on is PokerCoaching.com since it has the basics and the advanced should you want to go that far
@@wesleykim1758 thank you brother massive help
I understand the first round completely but how do you calculate the %W and %L for the second round and etc. ?
Do you mean flop by "second round"? Or something else?
@@ThePokerBank Like how you’ve described that throughout the first round it’s a .47 vs a .53 so during the second hand what’s the outcome of the %W and the %L and how did you came to that conclusion?
@@hexpinteasYou can calculate equity with a tool like Equilab: www.splitsuit.com/equilab-poker-software-video
@@ThePokerBank Thanks!
How do you figure out opponents range
Equity 47% means will win or tie 47% of the time ,win rate will be around ~42% with pokerstove or ~44% with equilab. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Maybe yes maybe no, because nome of the flops doesnt have tie
How does this work when you’re not the final better in the round? Like you can’t tell how much you’ll win if there are more people left to bet after you?
How accurate can I reasonably expect a hand range to be?
And wouldn't wild players completely ruin EV since they don't have an easily predictable range?
Not in the long run. Money is won from weak players that play their weak hands too far. Be ready for some wild swings with wild players though.
Thats so fucking interesting. I just started to try to learn about the Maths and Strategy behind poker. I would have never thought how complex this game actually is.
Just seems so pointless (and I know it’s not) to me because you’re just taking a guess as to what your opponents range is. If I go to vegas and sit down in a poker room im not going to have any idea what anyone’s range is for awhile.
Cash table only? Tournament seems all about the sequence of events that lead to to this hand and announced coin toss
Fold is -1 in the aq example.
Dont know if you'll reply to this but heres hoping....how do u factor in implied odds when using the formula??
Hey Ryan. You can use the Advanced EV formula and modify it to account for future value: th-cam.com/video/ym1774AC5Ww/w-d-xo.html
Does it mean that I can use EV only playing Heads Up?
No because you'd still need to figure out your opponents range of hands not everyone plays the same way heads up.
So how do I quickly calculate this in a game?
How much does a pot size matter here? Eg what if he shoved $30.. would that change our decision to call?
ofcouse it would, but thats more of a matter of knowing your opponant, is he/she a very loose player who plays every hand? or would your opponant only do this with pocket aces? plus, how much is $30 to that player? it is a whole lot of difference when his stack is $600, when you more easily put $30 in the pot than whenever your stack is only$50. this is why there is no best strategy to poker, there is a matimathical side to poker but there is a psychological side as wel