How To Use Pot Odds In Poker | Poker Quick Plays
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SplitSuit shows you everything you need to know about pot odds. Pot odds are the most fundamental element of poker math, so understanding it couldn't be more important. Learn what these ratios mean, how to convert them to usable percentages, and how to compare the percentage to your equity in order to make better plays preflop and postflop.
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If the conversion from risk/reward ratio to percentages is confusing to you, you can skip it. I've never used the ratio and always go right to the percentages by using the "rule of 2 and 4".
The rule of 2 and 4 as I use it:
CALL ALL-IN ON THE FLOP: multiply the number of outs by 4 and add 1.
CALL ALL-IN ON THE TURN: multiply the number of outs by 2 and add 1.
So you add the call to the pot and calculate/guesstimate the percentage of that call. Then calculate card %% by using the rule of 2/4 and compare the two. So the example pot odds from the video,
My call would be: 24. Current pot: 65.50. Total would be: +- 90. (No need to be exact)
24 out of 90 is slightly more than 25%. (since 25 out of 100 would be exactly 25%. Guesstimating will work fine)
Open ender, all-in on turn:
rule of 2/4 with 8 outs on the turn: 8*2 +1 = 17%
That's clearly less than our "slightly more than 25%". So it's a clear fold.
Same call/pot situation with a flush draw on the turn?
rule of 2/4 with 9 outs on the turn: 9*2 +1 = 19%.
Still fold.
Gutshot + flush combo on the turn?
9 + 4 - 1 = 12 outs (one of the gutshot outs is also a flush out, we don't want to count that card twice)
12*2 +1 = 25%
Still fold.
Open ended + flush combo on the turn?
9 + 8 - 2 = 15 outs (two of the straight outs are also flush outs)
15*2 +1 = 31%
Call. It's +EV. But don't be surprised when you lose.
Open ended, all-in on the flop?
8*4 +1 = 33%
Call. It's +EV. But don't be surprised when you lose.
Open ended + flush combo, all-in on the flop?
15*4 +1 = 61%
Call. It's +EV. You even have a good chance of winning the pot ;p
As you can see, it'll hardly ever come down to the exact number like 26.8%. Doing a rough guesstimate like this will work fine in the vast majority of cases.
Btw James, I mean to give an alternative to people who have a hard time converting ratio to percentage, not to criticize your video. I love your videos, they're great!
You Sir, take my like
this is an excellent comment
I like this, but I've always used the opposite. Since the pot odds is a ratio, make your outs calculation a ratio. Since you have 47 unknown cards post flop, divide your outs into 47, then 46 post turn.
If you've got 15 outs, ~1/3 of the remaining cards are an out. With two draws at those outs. So, 3/1 pot odds with ~1/3 of the deck being an out.....you should strongly consider calling....
Amazing! Thank you so much sir!
@@nthsum5509 if there are 9 players at the table, 7 of which fold, would you then subtract their hole cards from 47 on the flop so its actually 33 unknown cards because you obviously cant hit those exact outs they may hold?
This topic really brings out your enthusiasm
I disagree
Comment of the century right here 🔥
So when your calculating your pot odds post flop if you are calling on someone who raised you , you dont consider the money you put in the pot right before his raise nor the money you put in the pot preflop as part of your invested odd? That prior money you put in only counts as part of the winnings part of your odd ratio?
Love the video and I learned some new.But to calculate the pot odds much simpler, I simply divide the whole reward with the risk.
If the full pot is 1500 and you are asked to call 500 it's simply 1500/500 = 3Which gives you the pot odds of 3:1
A quick way of understanding the ratio is simply by switching the two numbers around, so that the "1" is always to the left and keeps unchanged and you just add 1 to the right side.3:1 = 1/4 = 25%2:1 = 1/3 = 33%1:1 = 1/2 = 50%
Thanks, it took me a while to find an understandable and clear video with this information, you even said stuff I didn't know I need to learn. Thanks
Just want to say that I just got back from vegas and was up $500 and placed third in a tourney after re-watching some of these videos as a refresher course. Thanks again.
+Slashoom congrats on the results!
Love your work mate, great presentation and very valuable insights. I would like to play you heads up one day
This channel is amazing. Thank you for not charging us for the info.
Thank you! Didn't understand a single thing but I'll keep watching more and I'll understand better. So thank you for your channel
lol
Glad I'm not the only one haha
Amazing, playing poker since so many years and now I know pot odds
i just started playing last year and this stuff is mind blowing
Great video best poker video i've seen so far!
this is fantastic ! thank you so much ! bravo !
Thank you So much for your free advise to all poker player its means a lot Thank Thank You so much ❤️ Much Love from India.
@momo Pot odds do help you decide if a call is going to be good (profitable in the longrun) or bad (losing in the longrun). You simply compare the pot odds you are getting to your % (or percentage of winning the hand) to see if a call would be good or bad. This is particularly useful when drawing and calling preflop all-ins...but it applies a ton of the time
where do we get the pot odds?
You get them by comparing bet sizes and the size of the pot. The video does a good job of explaining the basics.
francisco fernandes opponent raise + pot / your call amount
@Grant Newton if I have to call 10 to win 30, then the pot will be 40, so your pot odds are 40 to 10 or 4:1, so if you win 1 out 5 (=4+1) times, you are breaking even (0 EV). So if you win more than 1 time out of 5 calls (i.e., 20 %) you are positive EV, which you base on your hand's equity on floor or turn.
@@lightonstillwaters6789 this is actually a very good and well explained comment
Great video, mate. concise and made things simple. cheers
Thanks Lucas!
the 98s hand if using EV and his range includes small pairs,aces suited, broadway cards, on the button bringing the equity to 24% that would mean the call is correct?
Thanks a lot. Learned so much - You are Heaven sent
James...You do a great job with these videos. Easy to understand and very helpful. Thanks for posting them.
Thank you for the compliment and you are more than welcome =)
Great video!
Very helpful video. Thank you
im a bit confused I understand the math and all I just don't see how this helps you decidec to make a play or not ? is pot odds a way to decide if its a smart choice to call that what I understand it to be if so why do percentages matter ex. if the pot is 175 and the guy calls 200 and you really don't have good cards ur gonna fold so when would you use pot odds ? thank you
Great video really really helpful
Also keep in mind negative implied odds wherein you might have TPTK but no flush draws. You can bet but you're more likely to lose by the river and more likely to get called by someone chasing the draw, so less fold equity.
@MrStevie57
The probability of a flush draw hits flush in the turn card is 9/45 = 20%, so the odds of NOT doing a flush are 80/20 or 4:1. So for 100 flush draws expect to hit 20 on the turn.
Fernando Mir shouldn’t it be 9/47?
@@darrinhedges3767 no because there 52 cards - the 4 cards that give u the draw =48- the other card on the flop= 47- the burn card for the flop and turn =45. Hope that helps :)
George McDonnell yea but the burn cards are Unseen cards, there are 47 unknown cards, it’s 9/47
George McDonnell & if you go by the 2 & 4 rule you have 9 outs times 2 so it’s more like 18% to hit the flush, not 20%. With two cards to come it’s 9 times 4 or 36% to hit the flush
Hope that helps :)
@@darrinhedges3767 yh i guess ur right. But somehow u cant be right because there is a youtube vid by a pro saying it 20 percent and so do alot of vids iv watched. So are we the right ones?
Although it's not needed I think a video dealing with odds could be helpful as most people are more used to percentages. After practicing this concept recently,I see why most people use odds as it's easier to calculate in real time.
The math is much easier when you deal with one form of numbers, The challenges is that it's easier to calculate pot odds in terms of Odds, but it's easier to calculate card equity in terms of percentage, based on the four two rule.
+Warren Viegas The 4/2 rule is great...but it's really only useful when you think you are behind and drawing to the best hand. In the real-world things aren't usually that simple.
How do you factor the rake? can you do a video on pot odds involving rake?
Lol
I don't fully understand this concept because intuitively it seems that i risk more then the amount i need to call because im already invested in the pot. Some percentage of the pot is my money so the reward is smaller then the pot + current bet. So the reward should be smaller in the equation but i don't know im confused because in this case i'm not risking the money already invested in the pot when calling but im going to lose my money already invested in he pot if i'm not calling or reraising.
I'm pretty new to this so please don't be too harsh in my if this is a dumb question...but do you ever include overs as "possible outs"?
For example - if I have KQ and the flop comes J 10 2 - is there ever an opponents range where I'd include my KQ as 6 more outs in addition to the open ended 8 outs?
Thanks for any advice!
Not a dumb question at all Matt. Yes, you can include overs as possible outs when eyeballing things. In your KQ example, your K and Q are live outs if your opponent has AJ. You typically don't take them as full outs (since villain could reasonably have hands like KJ as well), but partial outs for back of the napkin math is fine imo.
PokerStars: "I have KK, villain has J2. My odds -- minus 3,000 per cent."
🤔😁😂
True
MAN !!! You are the best !!
Fedor Amuricano thanks Fedor!
Hey man love your videos. It makes sense when you do it but when i try to apply these concepts elsewhere they get me reall confused one example would just be for and equity calculation
board: 4sKs3h
hero: As5s
villan: Kc3
so in this case we get 12 outs to win
but here its different bc if we take 47/12 we get roughly 25%
however and odds calculator give a win % of 44.6. meaning the closest thing to this would be using the rule of 4 and 2 but even with that its a huge 3% diffrence.
So idk how to di it even while using your examples
You had 12 outs on the flop which would be 12 x 4 or 48% but you aren't done yet since you have to subtract the outs over 8. 12 - 8 = 4. 48% - 4 = 44%. That's how you calculate it. Hope this helps!
Awesome vid!
Hi James.
I'm pretty sure this is correct. But instead of calculating the ratio followed by the percentage, I can calculate percentage directly by dividing the amount to call by the total going into the pot including my call, e.g 40/160 (80+40+40) = 25%.
Simples ?
For sure. Nothing wrong with skipping the ratio element if your brain doesn't require that step.
Hi. Nice video. Tx. Now, minute 1:57 that example it's -ev. If we put the oponent range on TT+, AKs, AKo do you have a 31 % equity not 43%
+Ariel “sifer69” Da Costa Dutra thanks Ariel! If you are using Equilab you may notice that we have a 31% win% vs TT+/AK...but we actually use our equity vs the range as a whole (since villain will have AK sometimes and we'll chop the pot...which results in us losing almost nothing vs losing/winning everything). So you use the raw equity number which is 43%
Well, im bit confused. You said your odd are 3:1 and it gives you 25 % but when i calculated what is the % of your investment it come to this: 40$ out of 120$ is 1:3 or 3:1 whatever you put first. So, for me 1/3 of 120$ is 33.3333333333% so tell me, how could it be possible for you to come with a 33%. Im trying every possible math combinaison exept your 1/(3+1)=25% dose not represent 40$ out of 120$...
so ... I do risk/(risk + reward) and take that ratio and do it again?
Very clear video. Thanks!
You're very welcome James!
When you are calculating odds preflop and your up against one person in this hand. But there is 6 people seated at the table do you go by the 6 player equity or the 2 player equity for that hand?
Honestly, I don't do much equity calculating preflop unless a.) we're committing stacks preflop or b.) stacks are shallow and the preflop decision is bending toward commitment. Preflop I'm more focused on playability, edges, SPR, if this pot rates to go HU vs. MW, etc.
I got it! Just take do the formula ......add risk + reward first....then divide that by risk....as follows.....add 33 + 53.50 = 86.50....then divide it by 33....that equals 38% pot odds
Thanks Poker Bank "score"!!
+Deventer you're very welcome
Thank you.
Can you calculate the percent of the pot odds without actually finding out the ratio? And then see if its < or > the equity. I assume that would require less math am I wrong?
You could, sure. Would likely take some memorization, but nothing that couldn't be done
Great video!
But isn't this math just assuming that there's no chance of eliciting further bets on the river? If we make our straight (using say a 10 of hearts so there's no flush possible for our opponent), we can likely get some more money into the pot. So shouldn't consider calling the turn even with slightly negative EV?
(In this example it's a clear fold even still, but you get my point)
What you are describing is 'implied odds', and yes, it's very heavily tied in with this concept. If you have incorrect pot odds to make a call, the next thing you turn to would be implied odds =)
For more on this (along with other poker math concepts), I might suggest starting up CORE and we'll guide you through this stuff: redchippoker.com/launch-core
I really had no idea about how he got a percentage or a ration out of that. I used the calculator and did 33/33 +53.50 and got back 54.5 percent? I give up I've been doing it for two days, I'll stick to theory, but I'm more confused now with that 1.6 to 1 haha. Thanks for the videos though their pretty good. Anybody know any other videos where they explain how to get their equity like 1.6.1? Google isn't doing a good job?
Help me someone. The first example is 1.6:1 pot odds. I get that.....but then u convert that to 1:2.6 which is 38% I get that as well. But y in the second example 2.7:1 not 1:3.7 like the first example which would mean 38% equity not 27%?
Do players ever consider their previous failed attempts/plays when factoring a decision. There are probabilities during play but if you haven't hit a 25% call in say 6 of 10 current attempts? Or if your pocket pairs have hit trips 3 consecutive times you're bound to go on a not hitting skid? Just curious.
That’s a common misconception. That’s not how percentages work. Your next move will still have the SAME odds as each one individually before that. What you’re doing is retroactively applying individual odds to a group, which you cannot mathematically do. The 25% call will ALWAYS have the same odds for the next option to do so, the previous attempts do not factor at all.
Hi, like this vdeo, and got another more confusing math question: how did you calculate odds 4 the next street usually? like, u getting enough odds to call on the turn, but u feel you going to pay them off their value bets, and at the same time call all their bluff, and if some flush or streat card fall, u decide to fold.
How to calculate whether I should call to see the river or not on turn 4 such situation?
i ask this cuz sometimes i call the turn pretty easy consider the math, and all of a sudden, villain bet big the river and the river odds become unfavor so i fold which made my turn call -ev, even though it is +ev at that time on the turn, but i know u cannot have ev when u call turn and fold river always.
I believe most low stake player have experienced similar situation before, hope u could make a video about such situation
Good vid
So am i supposed to memorize equity vs different ranges or have equilab open all the time?
Doyle doesn't do this stuff.
So to make a correct call, my equity/chance of winning has to be equal to or higher than the pot odds ?
Correct. Or, if your pot odds aren't good enough, you need to have implied odds against your opponent
Where does the 2.6 come from at 2:13 ??
Hi The Poker Bank . I don't understand how to calculate from a 3:1 on the flop to win, to my % ratio to win. Could you explain how i do that kind of calculate, thanks!
The pot odds tell you how much equity you need in order to continue profitably. And you can estimate your actual equity (your hand versus your opponent's range) using a program like Equilab. We even made a video showing you how to use it here: th-cam.com/video/7hyHhC9OGpA/w-d-xo.html
All the US poker sites barely have any players anymore. Blackchip and Ignition at least have enough to get a game going. I recommend going to @t for new players bonus and rake back deals.
how does one calculate their hand strength preflop? like your Ace King without a calculator at a live table?
Jwalk2urheart through tons of reps using tools like Equilab and practice hand reading.
I have a question. Say you have 15 outs. A flush draw and two overcards. When I insert this in a calculator, it gives me a 50 % equity in an equity calculator. but it gives me 30 percent equity once I miss hitting my card on the turn. How is this possible?
Your 9 flush outs + 6 overcard outs equal 15 outs on flop, if the overs are live (clean), assuming opponents don't have 2 pair, sets or high over pair.
If you miss on turn, and all 15 outs are still live, then there are 46 unknown cards for the river.
15/46 is about 30 percent.
Or Using Rule of 4&2, you have 1 river card to come on turn, so:
15 outs x 2% = 30%
* 2% is approximation of 1/46
** Exact Equity is 15/46 for your draw, with 15 outs on turn for the river card.
how do you get an estimated equity? is it always your outs x2
+Mike Newman if you're drawing, you can use the 4/2 rule. For more info on that, check out this article: www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/4-2/
If you want precise equity, use Equilab: www.splitsuit.com/stop-using-pokerstove-start-using-equilab
One last thing, maybe I'm making things too complicated, but there must be a way to link the concept of pot odds,what do you think you're opponent has, and bet sizing. Or are you just better off guesstimating
+Warren Viegas that sounds like more of a hand reading skillset than a pot odds thing :)
@ The Poker Bank, In the second example, don't we need to estimate how often we will get paid when we hit our hand on the river, and how much you can get paid to determine your true equity? Maybe this was intended to be just a basic intro to the topic, which is good, your videos are great.
+MrZola1234 Yes, we also need to consider implied odds - this was just a basic primer and we didn't want to throw IO into the mix and make things confusing for newer players.
And thanks for the compliment!
Kind of a dumb question, how do you calculate how much % your hand has. Is that just something you memorize with counting outs or?
Not a dumb question at all. You get a feel for your equity by playing with tools like Equilab during study sessions. Do 20 minutes a day for a week and you'll develop a better feel for many common spots
@@ThePokerBank Thank you kindly! I always wondered what programs people used
Thanks
McGavel1 you're very welcome!
I get most of this but I'm confused on where you got the 2.6 from ?? Can you help with that part ?? Just not sure why that specific number?
I can try. I will say though, if you just learn formula call / ( pot + call), and apply it to his 33 call and 53.50 pot, you will get .38 or 38 percent immediately without all that ratio stuff. But I can do it his way. First he divides 53.50 by 33 to get the ratio 1.6 to 1. Then he applies the formula for turning odds into a percentage. If the odds are x to y, then the percentage is x / (x + y). So you might think, ok, the math should be 1.6 / ( 1 + 1.6). However, and he glosses over this step, the pot to call ratio is such that a high pot to call ratio means you can call with a low odds hand. For example, say pot to call ratio was 10 to 1. This means your break even odds for making your hand can be 1 to 10. The inverse. So he first converts 1.6 to 1 to 1 to 1.6 without really explaining that. Then applies the x / (x + y) odds to percent formula. 1 / ( 1.6 + 1) = 1 / ( 2.6) = .38. Or 38%
Michael Bauers the ratio stuff definitely confuses things it’s literally just the pot add your call then divide by the call y do people make things so confusing
3:18 shouldn’t that be 3.7:1 or am I doing the math wrong? Someone help me I’m high.
for the example with AK pre flow how did you decide to do1/2.6 to get the equity %
Matt Holmquist based upon the pot odds :)
but how? Which numbers got you the 2.6?
53,5 / 33 is 2.6
he just break it down so you have a x:1 in this case 1.6:1 which is 38% (1 / 1 + 1.6)
i stuck with overbet spots. Let's say opponent bets 200% pot (two pots) .Like in example the pot is 80, so he bets 160 to 80 .According to the formula it's 160 / (160 + 240) = 0,4 or you have to be right 40% to break even . Is that correct ? i mean at the same time when we're getting 2 to 1 ( if opp bets pot on the river ) we have to be right 33% so isn't it 33% * 2 than ,witch means we have to be right 66% of a time when we're calling 2 pots size bet on the river ?
your formula is a little off when overbetting. Risk is $160 and Reward is $80. So 160/(160+80) = 67%
It's not a little ,it's just off. Thank you man ,i'm really bad at math :/
Are you offering coaching atm ? If yes what price per hour .I couldn't find info on your site .
i was looking at some charts and say for a flush draw (9 outs) its says flop to turn your odds are 4:1 and flop to river 2:1.this has me a bit confused.whats the turn to river odds so?so if someone shoves the flop you have 2:1 to hit your hand?
Those charts are estimations. Your actual equity and pot odds require may change against a specific player's range. But you are 4:1 with 1 street to go, so from the turn-to-river it would be 4:1
oh right,i was getting confused because i was thinking at what stage do i have 2:1 here with 9 outs!?!
Justin Mcnabb We've all been there
:D
What is the 4/2 rule?
A interesting idea i recently heard from my friend about poker math: he told me no matter what u win rate or odds u getting when u bet or call pre-river is irrelevant, IT ONLY MATTERS whether the river is mathematically +ev or not, if u have a +ev on river, the whole hand is +ev. Is that ture????
it does not seem to me reasonable that i got 23 air and call flop 10 dollar, turn call 20, river pot is 60 and i pot river getting 50% fold say, will break even, i spend 90 dollar on this, and if i win, he only put in 30....
THAT SAID, if u think about, like u got 40% equity pre- and getting 4-1 and u called. only one thing will happen after the preflop calling which is having a flop where the risk or reward did not materialized yet, and when u made decisions on flop, the risk reward change from 4-1, so how does that multiway work?
I understand everything you're talking about but when you say 2.7:1 turns into %27 equity, how did you get that number?
1/(2.7+1)=1/3.7=0,27
0.27=27%
1/4 = 0.25 - 25% not 20%
1/4 = 1/4+1 = 1/5 = 20%
Odds are confusing. Converting to percentages seems simpler. If I have to pay $25 to win $75, that's equivalent to a break even percentage of 25%, meaning I need to win 25% of the time. If I lose three times, I am out 75, and when I win the 4th time, I am dead even. I can see then to compute break even percentage, it's call / ( call + pot.) In his example, I have to call 24 to win 65.50. Math is 24 / ( 24 + 65.50) = .27. So break even percentage is 27%. I can call if the chances of hitting my outs is 27%. I think poker people use odds though, in standard charts of outs. So maybe they have to mess around with odds, but I prefer percentages whenever possible. The rule of 2s and 4s is percent based though. That is, if you need 9 outs on the river, that's about an 18% chance of getting them. If you can get them on the turn or river, that's 36% chance of getting them. So I would think knowing call / (call + pot) is handy, but maybe it's simpler to compute it as ratio?
If you wonder why I don't like odds and ratios, there's two reasons. One reason is that odds and ratios consist of two numbers, like 3 : 1. The other the habit of talking about odds for and odds against. Simpler to just talk about chance of something happening as percentage ( one number only.)
if i have flush draw on the flop.
the pot is 600$ and the bet is 300$ so i have to call 300$ to win 900$.
so the pot odd is 3:1.
i have 9 outs.
in this case 9*2 = 18% ==> 4.5:1
so i should fold my hand cz odds>pot odds.
if its all in on the flop it will be like this 9*4 = 36% ==> 1.8:1
so i should call cz here the odds
+sako sako Right. It depends on how many cards you're going to be able to see when using the 4/2 rule.
+The Poker Bank thank you !!
+sako sako not to forget I implied odds
+Arjun Chintaram yes of course thankk u !!
@ around 3:18 the pot is 65.5 and you need 24 to call and come out with 2.73 : 1 on a call. Shouldn't you be adding your call to the pot to get 3.73:1 on a call? The answer is still fold however it is much much closer.
ndnow12 - no. You don't add your call to the pot because your call is not in the pot. It is CURRENT pot odds not additional. You are risking the 24. When comparing for EV it's all about what is already in the pot, not what will be in the pot.
Your EQUITY is added to the pot, therefore your equity percentage is 1/3.73 or approx 27% but the pot odds themselves are 2.73:1
dragonblood12 so why in the first example it is 38% and not 16%? As he added his call bet but not in the second example
what about implicited pot odds, that will convert EV- moves into EV+ isn't it?
Lol
Hey poker bank im not that good at math do i really need to do all this mental math and percentage stuff to win?
This kind of simple math is required for longterm success, yes. But with some practice it becomes second-nature and you will easily retain it
On the first equation how did you arrive at 1.6 to 1? When I do the math of the $33/ [ $33+53.50] I arrive at 2.6 to 1 only if I directly divide $53 by $33 do I arrive at 1.6...Can you clear up the process in how you are doing the math equation, that is my biggest problem cause at the table I would look at the $33 call on an $86.50 pot as a little over 2 to 1 odds..not 1.6 to one..Then when you go to figure the % you go with 2.6 to 1, where did you get that from?
To figure out the ratio you do reward:risk (or 53.5:33 which gives you 1.6:1). To find the BREAKEVEN % from that ratio you do the 33/(33+53.5) calculation. Does that help?
The Poker Bank Not really...LOL..Is there a simple way to do the math easier at the table? finding the % is where I get stuck..I should have paid attention in school..lol. (so risk and reward) 33=53.50= 86.50 now divide that by the 33 (risk) so I can round up 86.50 to 90 and round 33 down to 30 and come up with 1/3rd or 33.3% as a quick computation at the table?
That's pretty aggressive rounding...but it's better than nothing :)
Just work through a few hands and get used to calculating the pot odds. With practice, you'll be able to do figure it out off the top of your head. It just takes time and practice.
Thanks, I sent you an Email the other day in regards to a specific hand I played, probably poorly.
Great video
+FameUSMixtapes FameUSMixtapes thank you!
2p06 so complex, call 33$ for 86$ total, need 33/86 equity ~ 38%
I like it, but now I gotta find put how to calculate equity!
He said to memorize some of the common ones, like 2:1 needs 33+% equity. Where can I find a chart of the basic ones? All I can find are charts of pot odds, but nothing about equity.
Here is a simple chart to use: www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/percentage/
You then compare your equity to the pot odds. If equity > pot odds, then you at least call. If equity < pot odds, then you usually fold (barring things like implied odds, future plans, etc.)
I got lost of the equity point! i am confused when you sya we need 25% to break-even. I am newbie on poker so Iam still learning the jargon!!!
+elena Esp You would need 3:1 for a break even call with 25% equity. Your equity is how often you are expected to win based on how many outs you have.
+elena Esp Basically, if your odds of winning the hand are 25% you don't want to pay more than 25% of the pot for a chance to win it.
+elena Esp a newbie at poker thats awesome ... try and work on learning the game and watching them closely .. .ive been playing poker for the last 9 years and i still dont understand this shit hahah
+elena Esp As a newbie I would focus on hand selection, position, aggression (the triple threat) and making good lay downs. Work on your discipline, many new players simply cannot let go of hands when they have little to no equity and lose a lot of money that way.
So why on the 3:1 pot odds did you have +25% equity on the call for plus EV and on the 2.7:1 you needed 27% to be plus EV? Shouldn't the 2:7:1 be around 22% if your using the same logic? Sorry trying to get my head around it.
To turn 2.7:1 into a percentage you do 1/3.7 which comes out to 27%
+The Poker Bank Righttt, Thankyou for responding, I don't check my notifications often hence the delayed reply. I'll be using that link in the description to practice these. Love the vids
Thanks for video, but based on my experience pros mix EV betting with bluff, so mathematically you should always fold. Poker is more than just math but math helps when playing amateurs!
Deciding whether to call/fold using the rule of 2/4 assumes the other player already has a hand that beats your draw. If you know the other player is bluffing some of the time, that should make you lean more toward calling, not folding. This is especially so if your draw has some equity on it's own, like an Ace-high flush draw that can beat a bluff.
What is the correct rule some sites say 4 and 2 the others say 2 and 4 i am comfuse
Your flop outs times 4% on flop for your equity to river.
Outs times 2% for equity on next street (card to come).
Why, when calculating outs, is no allowance ever made for the likelihood of some outs already being in other players hands? Since in a full-ring game nearly half the deck is already 'out' it must be a reasonable assumption that on average almost half of all your outs will be also?
I think this is a good question. And I will try to answer it, even though it's old. Take a deck of cards. Throw 51 of them on the ground. What are the odds the last card is an Ace of Spades? 1/52. Pick them back up, shuffle them, and draw the first card. What is the chance it's an Ace of Spades. Also 1/52. As nothing is known about cards thrown on the ground, they don't effect your calculations of odds. The cards in player's hands are no different than the unknown cards in the deck. As another person put it, you could simply assume the player's hands are at the bottom of the deck, because there's no difference between them being dealt and them being at the bottom of the deck as long as you don't run out of cards when drawing.
The one thing that doesn't make sense to me is the concept that, if the current pot is $40, and we have to call another $20, I know in terms of poker, the money in the pot is no longer ours, however in terms of profitability, we are already down $20 so far in this hand, therefore, even if we call another $20, technically we are only going to win half of that pot i.e $30. (assuming heads up, i.e what you put into the pot isn't profit)
So looking at raw win-rate, we are betting $20 with a 40% chance of winning $30 (net), which is not mathematically worth it.
The only reason I mention this is because the way everyone seems to teach pot odds doesn't really consider the loss, just the win, which makes me believe that you would need 2x the actual reward as stated to make the call worth it?
Or does this system generally just ignore the money you have already put in, as you have technically already lost that?
MishMash you would only consider what you put into the pot as yours if you were analyzing the entire play from a super zoomed-out view point. So when analyzing the validity of an ENTIRE line, rather than the validity of a single call (if that makes sense)
Why is it 8 outs *2 if there is only one card left
My head hurts!
oh basically you compare the percentage that you will win the pot against how much your risking for the reward. if how much your risking to gain is higher than your percentage of winning the pot is too great, then it is not a EV+ call
This is a stupid question I'm sure but why isn't your call calculated in to pot odds. If the pot is $80 and someone bets $20 the pot is now $100 but if you call you get your money back so aren't you risking $20 to effectively win $120?
It's not a stupid question at all! But our call should not be factored into the $W because getting our money back is not profit. Profit comes from winning our opponent's bets and/or the pot.
So when I say I have to call 20 to win 60 I'm not getting 3-1 but instead getting 4-1?
No, you are getting 3:1. But to figure out what that looks like in terms of equity-required, it would be 1/(3+1), for 25%.
James (SplitSuit) O Thanks. love the channel by the way really improved my game. Keep it up.
You're very welcome Keith!
So now that we've discussed the odds, what about the evens?
buh dum, cha
How did you come from 1,6:1 to 1/2.6 =38%...(2:13) Can SOMEBODY explain that.
Rewind back to 2:00 and watch from there. There is some simplifying going on, but the math checks out =)
Thank you so much for this video! You explained it very well. You’ve got a new sub
2 things:
1) At 02:10, the calculation reads 33/[33+53.50] but it doesn't explain where the 1.6:1 comes from since the calculation gives you directly the percentage 0.38 =38%. Shouldn't it rather read 53.5/33=1.6 = 1.6:1 or 53.5:33=1.6:1? Am i missing something?
2) Why bother with ratios when the relevant number is the percentage? Why even care about this 1.6:1 when all we actually need is the 38% that we want to compare with our equity? Since it is so easy to convert outs into percentages (5 outs=~10%), why loose time with ratios when we can convert pot odds into percentages directly and easily compare them to our own equity?
+ICreatedU1
1. 53.5 is 1.6x 33
2. You can skip the ratios if you'd like so long as you can get to the correct %. Just be aware that many people still communicate using the ratio so it's helpful to at least understand the ratios so you follow along with certain conversations :)
But... my man , you have written 33/[33+53.50] , let's say [33+53.50]/33 which is actually right because 86.50/33 = 2.6 to 1 = 1/3.6 = 27% ??? am i doing something wrong here? it would be the same as if you were on the flop and the pot was 53.50 and villain bets 33 ... anyway well explained but this part baffled me a lot ??
I'm confused. Why do some people say "always call when pot odds are higher than your chance of winning" and some say you should only call when your chance of winning is higher than the pot odds?
this!, someone break it down
I thought Equity meant if you already have X percentage contributed to the pot, then make the call. So on the 4:40 mark, if you've contributed at least 33% to the pot on the 2:1 odds, then make the call.
Money you invested on previous streets no longer belongs to you - it belongs to the pot. What matters is current pot odds & equity estimates when crafting current and future actions.
Got it. Thanks. Can u explain what equity means then? What does term mean in poker? I think it means chance of winning the pot.
Equity is your entitlement to a pot if the hand went to showdown right now.
as in chance of winning?
More or less. There is a little more to it (in the big picture sense), so I'm trying to be as precise and simple at the same time =)
If you are lazy to calculate pot odds and EVs, you can use this simple-to-use app to analyze your Texas Hold'Em game:
edge.poker/
In that second hand, you might have less equity than 16% if he's got a flush draw. Then you'd have 12%. Either way, drawing against small stacks is dumb.
so confused how is 3/1 25% so you add right it's 1/3+1 OK so what if the person bets the pot..... then it's 1 / 2+1 which is 33%.
So we want the pot odds to be lower then? OK nevermindI think I just typed my way into understanding. If the pot odds are lower, then the outs % doesn't have to be as high as it would if the pot odds are 3 to 1. ur outs have to beat 25% or 33%
Bingo!
My understanding of the example in the video is if we assume our reward is 120 and we risk 40 then to break even we need to at least win 1 out of 4 that kind of situations. And 1 out of 4 is exactly 25%. So you can lose 3 times since 3*40 is 120 and then you need to win once to get 120 and break even.
1:3 pot odds is 33%..
break even is the similar formula... I don't understand the 25% breakeven.
It’s risk divided by risk plus reward. 1/(1+3) = 1/4, 25%
@@kameroncarr3437 For example
If the pot odds 1:6 then the breakeven odds 1/1+6?
Yes. You lose $1 6 times = $6 loss.
You win $6 one time= $6 win,
on average over many hands (long run), if pot odds are 6 to 1, meaning you risk $1 to win $6.
So if your equity is greater than 1/7 or 14.3%, you are plus EV (positive Expected Value), and should call on flop.
(Lots of simplifications, but an ok starting point to use as an example.)
Just google questions and lots of math will show up.
This is a solid, well produced video, but buddy ... it was a little too fast.
This is a very good video, but I feel that you should do you should make a video on estimation,
+Warren Viegas thanks Warren! Can you elaborate on the "estimation" idea?
+The Poker Bank I feel the calculations in this video cannot be easily done by the average person in their head, Particularly examples after the first one.33/53 cannot usually be done mentally, but 30/50 or in this case 3/5 can
+Warren Viegas I guess what I'm trying to say is that this video focuses too much on the raw calculation, and not efficiently getting the required information. For example, in your second hand,you're better off rounding and getting a rough odds because 27 is so much greater than 16, I came up with this after watching your video a few times to wrap my head around the concept. Hopefully that made sense
+Warren Viegas that makes sense. But it's better to understand the raw calculation first so that you have a strong basis for estimating. Shortcuts without a foundation aren't going to be best in the longterm.
James (SplitSuit) what's a good percentage for card equity to surpass pot odds? It Makes no sense to nitpick over one or 2%, but there must be a threshold where you're more comfortable relying on this math