"How Long Will Rate Hikes Last?" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 มิ.ย. 2023
- [Recorded 2 June 2023] After surprising many experts with yet another rate rise last month, the Reserve Bank meet again at 2:30pm on Tuesday June 6th, to announce whether they’ll keep Australia's cash rate target at 3.85% or increase again.
Mark Bouris and top economist Stephen Koukoulas return to discuss the factors affecting the RBA decision, property market, recession fears, inflation targets and interest rate predictions for the rest of 2023.
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>thinks that our economy should revolve around property
>can’t understand why productivity is down
Sorry Gentlemen but I think you are wrong. I think tomorrow the RBA will put the rates up. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so.
Not wrong.
Saudi announced oil cuts over the weekend which means more fuel inflation. RBA needs to lift rates above 4.5% like others. NZ lifted the rates to 5.50%. US lifted the rates to 5.25%. Canada and UK lifted the rates to 4.50%. Only AU and EU are below 4%.
A good observation. Let's see what happens tomorrow...
Saudi is doing oil cuts because the world's economy is DEFLATING not inflating. You have it completely backwards.
So BRICs are going torment the West with new digital currency vs USD, and use rhe Oil price shock as a tool to whip us to kneel?
Good comment
In my view all interest rate rises are a 'gift' to the RBA to get away from the negative lower band where the financial system no longer functions as it should. RBA has less ammo than other countries.
I don't think many are looking at these rate rises in relation to negative rates and how this will affect the Rba's decisions. Potentially less willing to cut than previously.
I understand the extreme financial hardships many households are under now.
Great data based commentary. Thanks!
My only question to Mark and his guest is: can either of you point me to when you publicly warned against the consequences of the RBA dropping rates too low and/or for too long?
Boom!
@tezza2294 still waiting on a reply. I might get one after they finish acknowledging everyone agreeing with them, but it's been a few weeks and there's only about 20 people agreeing with them on here sooo.....
Those 2 guys would have loved all that low interest rate period.. That's when they make real money.. In property boom times..
This bloke said rates would peak at 2.85. What a joke
Yeah , food prices have come down power, fuel, rents, house prices, all down you lot are kidding, delusional actually
When they say inflation is coming down, they don't mean that prices are coming down.
They are saying that prices are going up slower than they were before.
We'll be hovering around 5-7% over the next 3-4 years. The other side of home ownership, cars etc is the up keep costs ... thats the real killer in terms of your savings and the ability to keep up with the economy. On a 2nd hand place, car .. whatever, you will need another 15% within a few years to fix all the little problems. Read that again. The government won't help you ... big business won't either ie. discounts on tinned tomatoes are small crumbs or food vouchers from government. It'll basically come down to this - how much your immediate family can help you. We're talking 50K type help... 100K or more.
Scary thought
Hasn’t this bloke been wrong a bit?
Has to give him points for confidence.
Have* to
He just wants property to pump.
@@yellowbrickroadtvreally? You have to correct his grammar? I'm out. Just proved you are a wanker
@@yellowbrickroadtv thank you.
I need to stop texting while I walk.
Koukinomics
Heads winds are blowing through all the world economies, hard times are on the way. Nows the time to cut your excess, while you can still get someone silly enough to buy it off you.
Enjoyed watching your discussion. On reflection The Kouk called it right. Let’s see where they go next month.
Really interesting content Mark. Well done!
thanks Neil!
I look forward to your monthly updates, gentlemen.
Untill everyone around me stops spending like there is no tomorrow and gorging themselves on debt rates need to rise big time as this inflation is strangling us!
Ive observed the same thing..cant get a booking at restaraunts.. everyone around me buying new luxuries like interest rates are still at 2%
Buying $ 100000 dollar cars like nothing
Why can’t the rba just name the indicators that would likely result in hold, increase or drop that it would take to do each of these steps in this decision tree
I am thinking our exchange rates have also played a big part with rising prices. When the US was raising interest rates sharply it pulled away quite significantly from the AUD. This weakened our currency and made a lot of what we were buying from foreign Sources more expensive.
This is such a good channel! Glad to have just found it.
Would be great if you could get Alan Kohler on one day!
Surprisingly there is not talk of the exchange rate. I feel RBA is watching the downtrend on AUD quite carefully.
Thanks for the commentary. Enjoy the review.
Thanks for watching!
Have you driven around inner city suburbs that used to be pumping every night of the week, there is street car parking it used to be hard to find, restaurants are never pumping like they used to be, I don’t know how long they can continue like that.
Re the recession had to have, perhaps we should have had one at the GFC!
Has he factored in the electricity price increase that's imminent?
👍
if rba were to strike another rate hike it could it be either that they losing touch or is that they got info that were not aware about ?
Or Philip Lowe is punishing the government, because he knows they're replacing him in October.
This is an incredible channel. Well done guys.
Awesome commentary boys. Thorough assessment of the Australian Economy.
What if this isn’t really inflation? It is just prices adjusting to the correct level. I.e. purchasing power is falling to where it should be.
I really appreciate the information that you and your guests contribute. Thank you
Glad it was helpful!
It's all going to crap. My business energy costs have gone through the roof along with my raw material costs and now my wages cost has increased. I have already started to cut shifts for my employee's as my margins have been slashed. I feel lucky as i don't have any business or personal debt and no overdraft or mortgage but it is definitely getting harder. I don't think it will be long before i will have to start shedding employee's which i seriously hate to do as excellent staff are hard to find.
1. We cant have infinite growth in hourly productivity as the allusion to shovels shows its an industry based metric.
2. Real wages (purchasing power) is the measure, a productivity increase exclusive of real wages increase doesnt make sense as the total output is measured against real wages not your pay packet.. your productivity is actually increases per hour if your real wage decreases (i.e. your purchasing power diminishes automatically inflates your productivity....)
At last we have people discussing it clearly.
Buckle up and assume the crash position people this landing is going to be rough. Thank you always great show.
Cash rate averages are so high. That is a failure of government policy and central bank policy. They should never be above 3% if the clowns in these 2 institutions knew what they were doing and worked for us instead of pretending to work for us while actually working for themselves.
It has to continue ! Look at the AUD which is now fallen to 0.65 US! People should have changed their currency when it was on parity with the US dollar. Increasing demand for housing and looming demands by the unions for workers will see Australia suffer.
Deutchbanks predictions seem to be the most accurate.
4.6% by September.
Businesses only invest in housing (holiday homes ) not new tech for their company’s to increase productivity
If you were to a ask these guys if perpetual house price inflation is a good thing.. They both say yes.. But isn't this the main cause of our present housing affordability crisis? What happens when median house prices reach 2 or 3 million, are we all destined to live in tents somewhere..
Love the uploads. Cheers kids
Thanks for watching!
Instead of increasing intrest rates madly with no other means of clubbing inflation , why not give subsidy to businesses on import taxes and ask them to reduce prices on essential goods
Should you fix your home loan ??
Rate is too low. Retirees are victims of low rate and slow to spend.
doesnt matter how much lipstick you put on a pig , its still a pig !!
Commenting just after the announcement the day after. The RBA raised the rate 25 basis points. Sorry guys.
thanks for your comment
Too RBA protective Kouki of late. Can’t help but feel he’s eyeing off a gig after the restructure.
He was screaming for low rates... No look at the mess we're in
God help us if we’re relying on Alan’s analysis
Confirmed another rate hike today 😢😵💫
About. Time interest rates got back to normal.. still more upside coming
Wages increasing,oil going the same way,inflation increases to almost 7% 4.1% isnt going to do it. it will be over 5% soon.
"consumers are'nt silly"...sure...all this debt is fueling nothing but mindless consuming in straya
Good to see that even "people in the know" .... don't know 😂
THEY WANT TO BREAK US! HAHAHahaha
Melbourne people are so depressing