Dalio on Turkey, Argentina, and the Next Economic Downturn
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.ย. 2018
- Sep.12 -- Ray Dalio, co-chairman and founder at Bridgewater Associates, examines the crises is Turkey and Argentina and explains his expectations for the next economic downturn. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
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PLS LET RAY DALIO FINISH HIS THOUGHTS, STOP INTERRUPTING THE GUY, WHAT HE SAYS IS WORTH SOMETHING,
Agreed, guy was being ridiculous!
See that ear piece in the presenters ear ? That's some one telling him to speed it up . He probably has a certain amount of questions he wants to get through . Its American TV . They rarely let any one talk more than 5 minutes .
@@bunnynikkipeaches2442 it's stupid, that's what it is. Sometimes things are too complicated to properly explained in a couple of minutes.
The interviewer is a bum.
Agree agree agree. Even Fox has turned into an ego-fest
Ray Dalio should sign a No-Interruption Agreement with them before accepting any new interview
ABC2007YT That’s not good either because then the person being interviewed will have the tendency to go off into tangents. Interruptions are for focusing the conversation on relevant topics so the audience doesn’t get bored.
It's ok if the question is good. This interviewer's questions are related and pretty good still acceptable.
dalio 10:05. 2 years out is when hes worried. welcome 2 years later. what a brilliant mind
@Hoạt hình TV weirdo
This interview shows how the difference of mindest really is. I know the interviewer is knowledgeable but he has a different perspective than Ray Dalio. Ray is teaching how to fish but what they want is the fish.
exactlyyyyyyy
John Stephen your comment couldn't be better explained. I see the news people just wanting fish and never learn the basics.
Well said!
very good and smart comment, I like it
amazing how many times he gets interrupted....... please let him talk
astro24102 what's even more unfortunate is that many of these interruptions are planned and scripted before the interview. Modern media is pathetic
And those aren't even good questions
Buy bitcoin people
This is already miles better than what Ray Dalio had to suffer thru over at CNBC
it's an interview. guests like this can easily go into speech mode or go off into tangents. the host was correct to keep the conversation fluid.
Watching Ray Dalio talk about macroeconomics is like watching Lionel Messi playing soccer
Exquisite
Comment of the year 😍
@@soomaliitachannel6939 ko lol
JuanFernando Gracia haha my two idols
it's true haha
Preach
CNBC also constantly interrupts
Rude
Less here than CNBC eh ? CNBC doesn't ever interrupt Buffet that much for some reason.
That’s because Buffet always says how strong the US economic is, which is what they want to hear isn’t it
Economy*
@@alexloc1446 here though the interviewer is trying to push Ray into further clarification. I feel more than Ray wishes to devulge. Like the part about dollar depreciation. Agree in Buffet/CNBC.
CNBC is the worst
"feeling good is not an indicator of the future" could be said about any stimulant
except feeling bad isnt an indicator of the future either..
It's called a Markov process
This is fantastic. Much better than the CNBC one. The host interrupted Ray only three times and the interview was held in a much more strict and focused manner.
Ray is one of the few rich who could articulate well the wisdom he has accumulated over the years.. Great great guy..
And it's not only he can do it, he genuinely enjoys doing it too.
The gall of the interviewer to interrupt a genius...
It is frustrating to see
ruskmonster genius!?
This isn't genius. It's extraordinarily simple and a faulty model, which as he said so himself creates instability and wealth divides. None of his ideas are even original, he is a spout for the dominant economic Zeitgeist. True genius would be an economist who instead of seeking to ride the wave actually developed theories which could result in prosperity without blood in the streets.
Then why didn't the "genius" here talk about how the entire stock market is rigged???
Interviewer: Pl ask question and shut up. Let the genius teach listeners.
Great, listening to this one year later, make perfect sense, and shows how deep this guy looks into the future
Man, watching this interview is so intense. You never know when Ray will be interrupted.
LOL....I felt the same way!! LOL!!
Most interrupted hedge fund manager
I feel tense watching this because it's only a matter of time before he's cut off in the middle of something valuable he has to say.
Here in Argentina that happens like 10 seconds after some brilliant economist like Javier Milei starts talking.
Really appreciated Ray's book. It's showing how markets and history played out.
Pretty good interview (apart from the annoying interruptions).
And now (September 2019) the downturn is less than one year away.
And here we go
listening to Ray Dalio is like winning lottery, he's a really amazing guy
One does not simply interrupt Ray Dalio
Thank you Mr Dalio,for your book.
Who’s here in 2021 to see how his predictions panned out ??
I think that in Argentina's case there is a political factor that it's hard to quantify. Economists from other countries have to really understand the Argentina's political culture.
And i think EEUU is very concerned with this change to succeed because a new Default in Argentina means all the region going Left/Populism again that means China/Rusia in the continent.
Thanks for sharing ur knowledge Mr RD. Can't wait to read this book!
Im going to have to watch this a few times before I understand everything said. Very jam packed with important information
When Dalio speaks both ears should be wide open.
Perfectly said!
Thank you Ray. I read and watched a lot of your other videos and books. This has been really helpful in helping me find an investing approach that aligns with my philosophy.
Wow! Ray Dalio shares a lot of knowledge here - all people need to do is listen.
👩💻🙋♀️🚀Thank you Ray for taking the time to teach this! You are the man!🚀🙋♀️👩💻
My main takeaway: as the currency depreciates, the bonds will become cheaper and Fed will have to ease
Greetings from Medellin, and thanks for the news.
Dollar crisis two years out....30%will be wiped from the dollars value... it's 2020..this guy was right....
Dollar is still rising now because the entire world is fucked
And it took a world wide virus pandemic for his prediction to cone to fruition
@@ndnrb_ selloff in dollars
@@gkdlmlnl7697 Yup and will keep dropping. AUD doing great though. Lot of gold.
No wonder housing prices are out of control. Wouldn't surprise me to see intrest rates go up in December.
where's the rest of the interview?
Is that the reason why the Argentine government is estimating a dollar at $40 pesos for next year in their 2019 Budget the same value that it is today but with a 23% inflation??
Is it because they need to buy more dollars in order to pay the debt interests which have become exorbitantly higher? And why the Argentine government is trying to sell us the story that we need to become part of the world by taking debt nominated in USD dollars??
Very nice interview and I like the way he explains. Very thoughtful and didactic...
Oh crap this is 2018. Ya now it's a year later and he is still spot on
Exactly. His picture of 2020 is getting more and more obvious
Ya except there is zero inflation..
Love the great man's shoes. They look like they cost a fiver. The Bloomberg guy's shoes look like they cost $1000.
+myhister Thanks. That reporter always has such loud socks, that i wouldn't have noticed the difference in these two men's footwear.
myhister who cares asshole.
Ray’s shoes at first glance looked like comfort dress shoes. Not your Edmond Allen type of shoes usually worn by investment bankers. The interviewer shoes looked to narrow. But again it was hard for me to pick it up.
"The capacity for QE has been maxed out" ...Not necessarily here in the US. They will be monetizing stocks before you know just like in Japan and Europe.
And beware of Credit Agencies like..Citi Financial or Fairstone...😡...Plus what is the B.I.S..doing for the Banks?!😡
CNBC really needs to stick to Fast Money with Jim Crammer. Macroeconomics is not something they can handle...
That and not interrupting, which something most have down by 6 or 7 years old.
I sincerely appreciate these major business networks for inviting Mr. Dalio to share his thoughts on the upcoming economic downturn but STOP cutting him off when he is elaborating his points!
"I just do the calculations"..12:56. Genies.
I didn’t see any of them. Were they in a bottle?
Its March 2022, and Ray hit the nail right on the head.
Business Insider had the best. There were zero interruptions.
who is watching 2020, March17
You were
Ray was right. Thank you for saving me.
So if short term enthusiasm (rising wages and employment rates for instance) is not a good indicator for future wealth, what is ? Is it only about trying to follow as closely as possible the productivity growth ?
“Thanks for being here Ray, could you explain XZY?
Ray: Yes well-
“Ray I’m going to cut in and just ask X”
Ray: Sure, it’s really-
“Ray that’s all the time we have thanks so much for coming on our show”
Ray dalio makes alot of sense I wanna meet a person and talk about this all day
I find it amazing how patient Dalio is with such an interviewer, who like a little boy and can't wait to talk. Adult kids everywhere, my ex included.
Brilliant and valuable information, apply it well.
Granted, there are differences in comparing personal finances to that of a nation. However, in the end it's all about debt and how you're able to service that debt. Being the buy-it-now, pay-for-it-later-on-credit animals that we are, there is another day of reckoning coming. And as Ray stated, recessions and depressions are nothing more than correcting mechanisms for our financial structures. Since no one has come up with a radically different system we will continue to irresponsibly and repetitively spend ourselves into these periodic corrections. Perhaps the difference this time, though, is how much more interconnected our global economic and social systems are and therefore, how more vulnerable 7.5 billion people are to the civic unrest that may accompany these corrections.
Hi, i have two questions and I woud appreciate if someone can give me the answers to those, best:
1. What is the difference between buying CDF contract for difference and actual share, how does CDF bought move/affect the share price? I am askking because I want to see if the average Joe who buys shares affect the price through CDFs
2. Does due diligence on yahoo finance about financial statements is a legitimate thing to do, i.e. can you make good prediction for financial performmance or what you should you use to know that a comapny will increase their cash flow and earnings in the future?
Thank you!
Master. Thanks for the PDF
came back to see
Revisiting March 2020
Thank you so much Ray
i would like to hear what he would say to a friend at a bar about what the next downturn will be like... i bet it would be a little different than here.
they never let him talk.
Guys, slow down! :D I mean what is the reporter supposed to say, he has to ask a few questions at least so that we can call it an interview, doesn't he?! We all agree that there is a genius on front of him who is capable of making even a monologue if he wanted. And btw, in this interview, I can see that Ray is far more relaxed than on the horrible CNBC one, where he was getting interrupted by 3 people and constantly had to make his points.
Man, I love this guy & his philosophy. His book 'Principles' has already helped me a lot, very excited to read that one as I'm an economist myself.
Great comment! Ray is always calm. He is calm and peaceful by nature. He is a saint for warning all of us that the usd will be dropping 30% my forecast is 40% drop in value. I am in deep research for the blockchain infrastructure coins so the investments raise higher than the depreciation. It is the chase of time for the value of the dime.
Captions would be very helpful, auto generated or otherwise prepared. At least for those watching from Turkey & Argentina, the ones that REALLY need to understand the guy
Dalio, thank you for the book
Ray is gracious to keep being interviewed by this guy
So what's going to happen in Turkey then in 2019?
They don't have to print more money to pay back that debt. They have another option. An honest default. Both are the same. *Here's what I owe you in X only I've devalued my currency by 20%, or here's 80% of what I owe you in the dollars that were promised.* The entity still receive the same purchasing power and the savings of the nation aren't harmed.
Check out Frank Newman's book Six Myths that hold back America. You will understand treasuries thoroughly. He was the Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Take the knowledge from the right source. Just an idea.
A very well reasoned and well thought out argument by a consummate financier - from a fellow economist and financier
Any one can direct me to someplace where ray speaks more on the dollar crisis? Want to learn more on the mechanics.
Greetings to my Turkish crisis brothers, from an Argentinian.
Thank you!
Ray Dalio advise is read the book....population that has the attention span of a nat.
Seems to be a normal duplex interview conversation. Why so many odd comments about interrupted ?
thought so too..guys are just over reacting.
In Middle east geopolitics perspective , there is correlation between Turkey and Argentina. Indication Political move, impact to economic.
So what happens to the price of gold if the USD devaluates 30%. Would it go up 30%? How does that look in say AUD?
i couldnt understand the terms. too complicated. are there any videos about what Ray is saying but in ELI5 terms?
Bloomberg Markets and Finance & Ray Dalio, good job! :) :)
Watching this retrospectively as it's about 14 month old interview, but I'm not sure where this inflation he is talking about with regard to what they refer to as a "dollar crisis."
I know it’s your interview, but as so many ppl have said: LET THE MAN EXPLAIN HIS POINT! This is not a movie review!!
Pearls of wisdom, by Mr. Dalio. This is mesmerizing!!
Is there more video?
Interviewer is terrible but Ray pushed through and shared some of the best financial advice you will ever get for free.......
It is symptomatic that Dalio talks about worries two years out, when the problems are already here. Not being able to service debt and unfunded obligations. The United States is doing exactly what Argentina and Turkey are doing. The only difference is that money managers are stupid/corrupt enough to agree to lend to the US in dollars so as to hijack their own capital investment for which they have no personal stake but only manages other peoples money. Why would anyone in their right mind lend to the US with already known problems two years ahead and taking the additional risk of currency movements?
Lend to the US in your own currency and hedge accordingly.
I just love the way Ray Dalio talks.
That's the difference between a well-manicured TV host and a journalist conducting an interview. This guy seems to like the sound of his own voice more than letting his guest express his thoughts fully. My guess is that before he got his present job at Bloomberg he presented the nightly weather reports. :-)
Watching this at the very end of 2021. Argentina and Turkey seem to be toast. Stock markets are in an insane bubble - "the everything bubble". S&P500 just set a new all time record at closing today. Interest rate hikes are finally announced for next year. Interesting times.
He is being very generous not to scare people. He knows that THIS time the rest other world WONT buy the US bonds next time. Then all hell will break loose
Dalio is a genius on financial markets over decade long time frames, listen to him
What exactly is he reffering to when he says, their local currency debt becomes wiped out. So that if you own that local currency debt you will be wiped out?
Dear Erik
...Chillout.
Sincerely
The Universe
I was expecting the crisis and the treasury sales with high interest and yield this year. GDP growth doesn't reflect economic well being of all socio-economic classes. When one class fails it takes the rest with them. Hopefully people will build a bottom to top economy as opposed to the top to bottom we have now.
Can anyone tell me how many innings are there in total cause I don’t know which sports reference they are giving?
It's comical when you hear him say "wages are rising" because adjusted for inflation they haven't risen at all.
Much better than the cnbc clip where they won't let him speak
Do anyone know the difrences of now to 1940?, we have dalio now but they didnt have him at 1940.
Reccesion 2years away.! 12:50
Ray Dalio: ... So the secret to World peace is...
Interviewer: but, by how much could the dollar go down?
Erik Schatzker you need to learn a lot of how to interview people to get the best of them. Can't understand why Dalio, didn't walk away with your interruptions
When does his new book get released?
Have you noticed that everyone always predicts "two years out"? Gives us a lot of time to forget. Lol
Peggy Harris and not only that, but many financial figureheads who realise that all great bull markets come to an end have been saying that “we’re in the seventh inning” for literally three years now
@@Oetti ...another popular one is "kicking the can down the road...until we 'run out of road.'
They have the bulldozers to plow more road. Lol
you do run out of road, the excess has to eventually cause a miss allocation that's large enough to hurt things, just a matter of time.
im from argentina ..im sick of crisis in my country . god bless america. btw can i found that book in buenos aire ?? in spanish ?
The real problem with debt cycles is a lack of scrutiny in identifying investment opportunities. Unresolved information asymmetry as a result of incorrect focus, mostly lacking long-term views. The resolution is to better educate people in the Financial sector by focusing on securities analysis and business-sound thinking, rather than Macro oriented and quasi-strategical thinking!
How much would the parallel rise of outstanding student debt + auto debt along with their increasing default rates influence the severity of this next ending of the debt cycle? Over $1.4 trillion of debt on individuals seems like a macro indicator that Dalio would talk about.
i hope alot of people listen to this and really pay attention to what ray is saying. this is right on. although with the way the us spends i'd say were looking at a 50% reduction in the dollar not 30%. i dont think ray wanted to scare people. share this widely. btw has anyone gone to the site and tried to get the pdf?, i had trouble doing that at his site, didnt seem to work......