Dalio on Turkey, Argentina, and the Next Economic Downturn

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 686

  • @rene4766
    @rene4766 6 ปีที่แล้ว +631

    PLS LET RAY DALIO FINISH HIS THOUGHTS, STOP INTERRUPTING THE GUY, WHAT HE SAYS IS WORTH SOMETHING,

    • @rkatz0
      @rkatz0 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Agreed, guy was being ridiculous!

    • @bunnynikkipeaches2442
      @bunnynikkipeaches2442 6 ปีที่แล้ว +18

      See that ear piece in the presenters ear ? That's some one telling him to speed it up . He probably has a certain amount of questions he wants to get through . Its American TV . They rarely let any one talk more than 5 minutes .

    • @e1123581321345589144
      @e1123581321345589144 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@bunnynikkipeaches2442 it's stupid, that's what it is. Sometimes things are too complicated to properly explained in a couple of minutes.

    • @shawnym
      @shawnym 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      The interviewer is a bum.

    • @DragonHeartTree
      @DragonHeartTree 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Agree agree agree. Even Fox has turned into an ego-fest

  • @ABC2007YT
    @ABC2007YT 6 ปีที่แล้ว +153

    Ray Dalio should sign a No-Interruption Agreement with them before accepting any new interview

    • @AnonYMouse-ky4sg
      @AnonYMouse-ky4sg 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      ABC2007YT That’s not good either because then the person being interviewed will have the tendency to go off into tangents. Interruptions are for focusing the conversation on relevant topics so the audience doesn’t get bored.

    • @nsebast
      @nsebast 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      It's ok if the question is good. This interviewer's questions are related and pretty good still acceptable.

  • @chintanpatel5788
    @chintanpatel5788 4 ปีที่แล้ว +48

    dalio 10:05. 2 years out is when hes worried. welcome 2 years later. what a brilliant mind

  • @johnstephentiu1356
    @johnstephentiu1356 6 ปีที่แล้ว +256

    This interview shows how the difference of mindest really is. I know the interviewer is knowledgeable but he has a different perspective than Ray Dalio. Ray is teaching how to fish but what they want is the fish.

    • @gastonmazzei8087
      @gastonmazzei8087 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      exactlyyyyyyy

    • @iamisraelvillafana
      @iamisraelvillafana 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      John Stephen your comment couldn't be better explained. I see the news people just wanting fish and never learn the basics.

    • @tommic5077
      @tommic5077 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Well said!

    • @marcelinoperez2926
      @marcelinoperez2926 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      very good and smart comment, I like it

  • @astro-hm4nl
    @astro-hm4nl 6 ปีที่แล้ว +746

    amazing how many times he gets interrupted....... please let him talk

    • @sebastianheine378
      @sebastianheine378 6 ปีที่แล้ว +30

      astro24102 what's even more unfortunate is that many of these interruptions are planned and scripted before the interview. Modern media is pathetic

    • @KevinL88
      @KevinL88 6 ปีที่แล้ว +21

      And those aren't even good questions

    • @Hacunamattata
      @Hacunamattata 6 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      Buy bitcoin people

    • @BiscottiGelato
      @BiscottiGelato 6 ปีที่แล้ว +16

      This is already miles better than what Ray Dalio had to suffer thru over at CNBC

    • @nonenone8201
      @nonenone8201 6 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      it's an interview. guests like this can easily go into speech mode or go off into tangents. the host was correct to keep the conversation fluid.

  • @wealthbuilders4297
    @wealthbuilders4297 5 ปีที่แล้ว +34

    Ray is one of the few rich who could articulate well the wisdom he has accumulated over the years.. Great great guy..

    • @ASPEDBUSDRIVER1
      @ASPEDBUSDRIVER1 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      And it's not only he can do it, he genuinely enjoys doing it too.

  • @ThePorschefan
    @ThePorschefan 6 ปีที่แล้ว +942

    Watching Ray Dalio talk about macroeconomics is like watching Lionel Messi playing soccer
    Exquisite

  • @Rossini737
    @Rossini737 6 ปีที่แล้ว +76

    This is fantastic. Much better than the CNBC one. The host interrupted Ray only three times and the interview was held in a much more strict and focused manner.

  • @KennyPurpleRain
    @KennyPurpleRain 6 ปีที่แล้ว +217

    CNBC also constantly interrupts
    Rude

    • @razkrat8803
      @razkrat8803 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Less here than CNBC eh ? CNBC doesn't ever interrupt Buffet that much for some reason.

    • @alexloc1446
      @alexloc1446 6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      That’s because Buffet always says how strong the US economic is, which is what they want to hear isn’t it

    • @alexloc1446
      @alexloc1446 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Economy*

    • @razkrat8803
      @razkrat8803 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@alexloc1446 here though the interviewer is trying to push Ray into further clarification. I feel more than Ray wishes to devulge. Like the part about dollar depreciation. Agree in Buffet/CNBC.

    • @ABC2007YT
      @ABC2007YT 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      CNBC is the worst

  • @amandoad
    @amandoad 5 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Great, listening to this one year later, make perfect sense, and shows how deep this guy looks into the future

  • @ABC2007YT
    @ABC2007YT 6 ปีที่แล้ว +60

    Man, watching this interview is so intense. You never know when Ray will be interrupted.

    • @robreynolds1287
      @robreynolds1287 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      LOL....I felt the same way!! LOL!!

    • @priyanshu3182
      @priyanshu3182 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Most interrupted hedge fund manager

  • @ruskmonster
    @ruskmonster 6 ปีที่แล้ว +240

    The gall of the interviewer to interrupt a genius...

    • @TheDividendExperiment
      @TheDividendExperiment 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      It is frustrating to see

    • @trueself62
      @trueself62 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      ruskmonster genius!?

    • @kylelarson5074
      @kylelarson5074 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      This isn't genius. It's extraordinarily simple and a faulty model, which as he said so himself creates instability and wealth divides. None of his ideas are even original, he is a spout for the dominant economic Zeitgeist. True genius would be an economist who instead of seeking to ride the wave actually developed theories which could result in prosperity without blood in the streets.

    • @tiffsaver
      @tiffsaver 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Then why didn't the "genius" here talk about how the entire stock market is rigged???

    • @ganpillai1361
      @ganpillai1361 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Interviewer: Pl ask question and shut up. Let the genius teach listeners.

  • @ruskmonster
    @ruskmonster 6 ปีที่แล้ว +179

    "feeling good is not an indicator of the future" could be said about any stimulant

    • @kevinparsley6806
      @kevinparsley6806 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      except feeling bad isnt an indicator of the future either..

    • @samuraijack1371
      @samuraijack1371 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      It's called a Markov process

  • @erwinsaputra3645
    @erwinsaputra3645 4 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    listening to Ray Dalio is like winning lottery, he's a really amazing guy

  • @tenningale
    @tenningale 5 ปีที่แล้ว +20

    I feel tense watching this because it's only a matter of time before he's cut off in the middle of something valuable he has to say.

    • @Benjamin-lh6dq
      @Benjamin-lh6dq 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Here in Argentina that happens like 10 seconds after some brilliant economist like Javier Milei starts talking.

  • @aviadrotem6927
    @aviadrotem6927 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    October 2020 here. Dalio was right

  • @ccawe
    @ccawe 4 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    And here we go

  • @drsparwaga
    @drsparwaga 6 ปีที่แล้ว +32

    When Dalio speaks both ears should be wide open.

    • @CryptoGirl
      @CryptoGirl 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Perfectly said!

  • @alejandrobasaldua5930
    @alejandrobasaldua5930 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Greetings to my Turkish crisis brothers, from an Argentinian.

  • @reagansmith9505
    @reagansmith9505 6 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    One does not simply interrupt Ray Dalio

  • @Nick-yn2uz
    @Nick-yn2uz 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    “Thanks for being here Ray, could you explain XZY?
    Ray: Yes well-
    “Ray I’m going to cut in and just ask X”
    Ray: Sure, it’s really-
    “Ray that’s all the time we have thanks so much for coming on our show”

  • @duncannjokki4315
    @duncannjokki4315 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Dollar crisis two years out....30%will be wiped from the dollars value... it's 2020..this guy was right....

    • @ndnrb_
      @ndnrb_ 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Dollar is still rising now because the entire world is fucked

    • @AsG_4_
      @AsG_4_ 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      And it took a world wide virus pandemic for his prediction to cone to fruition

    • @gkdlmlnl7697
      @gkdlmlnl7697 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@ndnrb_ selloff in dollars

    • @ndnrb_
      @ndnrb_ 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@gkdlmlnl7697 Yup and will keep dropping. AUD doing great though. Lot of gold.

  • @n.w7333
    @n.w7333 6 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    My main takeaway: as the currency depreciates, the bonds will become cheaper and Fed will have to ease

  • @fengqin821021
    @fengqin821021 6 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    Really appreciated Ray's book. It's showing how markets and history played out.

  • @brokenbulbs
    @brokenbulbs 6 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    Wow! Ray Dalio shares a lot of knowledge here - all people need to do is listen.

  • @brianliao5268
    @brianliao5268 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    who is watching 2020, March17

  • @cookiejar01
    @cookiejar01 6 ปีที่แล้ว +43

    Love the great man's shoes. They look like they cost a fiver. The Bloomberg guy's shoes look like they cost $1000.

    • @ClearOutSamskaras
      @ClearOutSamskaras 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      +myhister Thanks. That reporter always has such loud socks, that i wouldn't have noticed the difference in these two men's footwear.

    • @lance8080
      @lance8080 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      myhister who cares asshole.

    • @AntonioCostaRealEstate
      @AntonioCostaRealEstate 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Ray’s shoes at first glance looked like comfort dress shoes. Not your Edmond Allen type of shoes usually worn by investment bankers. The interviewer shoes looked to narrow. But again it was hard for me to pick it up.

  • @pabloe5941
    @pabloe5941 6 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    I think that in Argentina's case there is a political factor that it's hard to quantify. Economists from other countries have to really understand the Argentina's political culture.
    And i think EEUU is very concerned with this change to succeed because a new Default in Argentina means all the region going Left/Populism again that means China/Rusia in the continent.

  • @we3k1ngs12
    @we3k1ngs12 6 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    Thank you Mr Dalio,for your book.

  • @musiccounts2008
    @musiccounts2008 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Ray was right. Thank you for saving me.

  • @Bonescratcher
    @Bonescratcher 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Who’s here in 2021 to see how his predictions panned out ??

  • @bobspizza7444
    @bobspizza7444 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Oh crap this is 2018. Ya now it's a year later and he is still spot on

    • @lllllllllarose
      @lllllllllarose 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Exactly. His picture of 2020 is getting more and more obvious

    • @acrobatmapping
      @acrobatmapping 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Ya except there is zero inflation..

  • @rontayan
    @rontayan 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Business Insider had the best. There were zero interruptions.

  • @kimyou29
    @kimyou29 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I sincerely appreciate these major business networks for inviting Mr. Dalio to share his thoughts on the upcoming economic downturn but STOP cutting him off when he is elaborating his points!

  • @nicolasrobbiano5578
    @nicolasrobbiano5578 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Is that the reason why the Argentine government is estimating a dollar at $40 pesos for next year in their 2019 Budget the same value that it is today but with a 23% inflation??
    Is it because they need to buy more dollars in order to pay the debt interests which have become exorbitantly higher? And why the Argentine government is trying to sell us the story that we need to become part of the world by taking debt nominated in USD dollars??
    Very nice interview and I like the way he explains. Very thoughtful and didactic...

  • @jung.k
    @jung.k 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    came back to see

  • @TheTibbzify
    @TheTibbzify 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Interviewer is terrible but Ray pushed through and shared some of the best financial advice you will ever get for free.......

  • @CuddleStories
    @CuddleStories 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Im going to have to watch this a few times before I understand everything said. Very jam packed with important information

  • @johnmorelli3775
    @johnmorelli3775 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Eric: STOP INTERRUPTING Ray Dalio. Just listen, let him speak.
    Remember - He knows a lot & you know very little.

  • @conservativeliberal5507
    @conservativeliberal5507 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    No wonder housing prices are out of control. Wouldn't surprise me to see intrest rates go up in December.

  • @jerrymartinez6353
    @jerrymartinez6353 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Ray dalio makes alot of sense I wanna meet a person and talk about this all day

  • @takashimurakami6420
    @takashimurakami6420 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The 1% rich can't want to have all, abnormal appreciation of shares followed by delicious interest rate. Negative interest is just a small compensation to this financial disorder. We all need to live with that or face a severely long depression that the positive interest will cause as happened in Japan in the beginning of 1990. Personally, I don't think Americans is patient enough for such a long down period. Then, I just wish not to opt for the worse, the big war.

  • @chrissalley9468
    @chrissalley9468 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    He is being very generous not to scare people. He knows that THIS time the rest other world WONT buy the US bonds next time. Then all hell will break loose

  • @antestrika
    @antestrika 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    where's the rest of the interview?

  • @ifonlyunu994
    @ifonlyunu994 6 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    "I just do the calculations"..12:56. Genies.

    • @Bonescratcher
      @Bonescratcher 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I didn’t see any of them. Were they in a bottle?

  • @dlukton
    @dlukton 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Pretty good interview (apart from the annoying interruptions).
    And now (September 2019) the downturn is less than one year away.

    • @blyat7276
      @blyat7276 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Lİsan al Gaib!!!!

  • @mic9771
    @mic9771 6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    they never let him talk.

  • @thewayoflovepodcast
    @thewayoflovepodcast 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I just love the way Ray Dalio talks.

  • @FloridaFun10007
    @FloridaFun10007 6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Ray Dalio advise is read the book....population that has the attention span of a nat.

  • @CryptoGirl
    @CryptoGirl 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    👩‍💻🙋‍♀️🚀Thank you Ray for taking the time to teach this! You are the man!🚀🙋‍♀️👩‍💻

  • @cbrich7408
    @cbrich7408 6 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    Seems to be a normal duplex interview conversation. Why so many odd comments about interrupted ?

  • @stevemilton5519
    @stevemilton5519 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Complete master of his topic.

  • @jonnyhatter35
    @jonnyhatter35 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Dalio is a nice guy. He seems like such a chill and humble dude, especially considering he's a multi billionaire

  • @SeanReyes
    @SeanReyes 6 ปีที่แล้ว +63

    Economy is great! 47% of people cant afford a $400 emergency expense, everything's amazing!

    • @williamsee7611
      @williamsee7611 6 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      If a person today in the U.S. can't afford a $400 expense today it is not because of the economy. Look for other cognitive issues.

    • @nigelmaund9057
      @nigelmaund9057 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yeah! Ain't it FANTASTIC!!

    • @luisperez7420
      @luisperez7420 6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      People don't have enough money for an emergency, for sure make it a point to get the new iPhone

    • @paulocoimbra8110
      @paulocoimbra8110 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Luis Perez ww

    • @natehawkins2910
      @natehawkins2910 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      SteakAndChips the poor frequently and foolishly blow money they DONT have and the well to do sometimes foolishly blow money they DO have. Big big difference! A poor guy making $12 per hour blowing $7 a day on smoking and $6 per day on drinking is wayyyy worse than a guy making $45 per hour doing the same exact thing. (Even tho statistically the richer a person is the less they smoke)

  • @edgy4925
    @edgy4925 6 ปีที่แล้ว +38

    Guys, slow down! :D I mean what is the reporter supposed to say, he has to ask a few questions at least so that we can call it an interview, doesn't he?! We all agree that there is a genius on front of him who is capable of making even a monologue if he wanted. And btw, in this interview, I can see that Ray is far more relaxed than on the horrible CNBC one, where he was getting interrupted by 3 people and constantly had to make his points.
    Man, I love this guy & his philosophy. His book 'Principles' has already helped me a lot, very excited to read that one as I'm an economist myself.

    • @CryptoGirl
      @CryptoGirl 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Great comment! Ray is always calm. He is calm and peaceful by nature. He is a saint for warning all of us that the usd will be dropping 30% my forecast is 40% drop in value. I am in deep research for the blockchain infrastructure coins so the investments raise higher than the depreciation. It is the chase of time for the value of the dime.

  • @JI-tz1gz
    @JI-tz1gz 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Erik Schatzker you need to learn a lot of how to interview people to get the best of them. Can't understand why Dalio, didn't walk away with your interruptions

  • @zimsolve
    @zimsolve 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you Ray. I read and watched a lot of your other videos and books. This has been really helpful in helping me find an investing approach that aligns with my philosophy.

  • @elenaferrer7543
    @elenaferrer7543 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks for sharing ur knowledge Mr RD. Can't wait to read this book!

  • @janmaaso
    @janmaaso 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Watching this at the very end of 2021. Argentina and Turkey seem to be toast. Stock markets are in an insane bubble - "the everything bubble". S&P500 just set a new all time record at closing today. Interest rate hikes are finally announced for next year. Interesting times.

  • @raoulberret3024
    @raoulberret3024 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I know it’s your interview, but as so many ppl have said: LET THE MAN EXPLAIN HIS POINT! This is not a movie review!!

  • @nicosmind3
    @nicosmind3 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    They don't have to print more money to pay back that debt. They have another option. An honest default. Both are the same. *Here's what I owe you in X only I've devalued my currency by 20%, or here's 80% of what I owe you in the dollars that were promised.* The entity still receive the same purchasing power and the savings of the nation aren't harmed.

    • @CryptoGirl
      @CryptoGirl 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Check out Frank Newman's book Six Myths that hold back America. You will understand treasuries thoroughly. He was the Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Take the knowledge from the right source. Just an idea.

  • @generaladmiral90
    @generaladmiral90 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Dalio is a genius on financial markets over decade long time frames, listen to him

  • @freedinner886
    @freedinner886 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    ray dalio is a goddamm genius and he seems warm hearted. I trust him and love his economic knowledge

    • @westganton
      @westganton 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You know he's a great man when he pours all of his life lessons into a book and gives it away, then puts animated versions of that same book on TH-cam for free. That is Ray Dalio investing his precious and valuable time for the good of all willing to listen

  • @coolintake
    @coolintake 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    can someone explain @11:11 what he means by the foreign perspective?

  • @krugmeister7301
    @krugmeister7301 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    And beware of Credit Agencies like..Citi Financial or Fairstone...😡...Plus what is the B.I.S..doing for the Banks?!😡

  • @malthus101
    @malthus101 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Debt Cycle = "When central banks harvest their host countries for their assets" (and often follow it up with a war as both a distraction from the theft, a way to lend at interest to both sides during the war, then a way to lend to all countries involved after the war to rebuild. Then the cycle begins again....

    • @malthus101
      @malthus101 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @Emile Nemchik WW1, WW2, both Iraqi wars...

  • @michael2275
    @michael2275 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Much better than the cnbc clip where they won't let him speak

  • @MontyRoyal963
    @MontyRoyal963 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Interest rates are strangling off innovation.

  • @harrybloom9213
    @harrybloom9213 6 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    13:35 ... and what do these companies do with the monney? Raise wages? No! They spend it in shares buybacks whilst their CEO's are selling their own private shares...

    • @JoelSrt8
      @JoelSrt8 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Inflating the price artificially... Until the music stops

  • @youngsamuel1
    @youngsamuel1 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Ray is gracious to keep being interviewed by this guy

  • @suivzmoi
    @suivzmoi 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    i couldnt understand the terms. too complicated. are there any videos about what Ray is saying but in ELI5 terms?

  • @abhinavitsmebellamy
    @abhinavitsmebellamy 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Pearls of wisdom, by Mr. Dalio. This is mesmerizing!!

  • @kylelarson5074
    @kylelarson5074 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    So inflationary debt crisis is basically caused by economic imperialism of the US dollar.

  • @aopstoar4842
    @aopstoar4842 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    It is symptomatic that Dalio talks about worries two years out, when the problems are already here. Not being able to service debt and unfunded obligations. The United States is doing exactly what Argentina and Turkey are doing. The only difference is that money managers are stupid/corrupt enough to agree to lend to the US in dollars so as to hijack their own capital investment for which they have no personal stake but only manages other peoples money. Why would anyone in their right mind lend to the US with already known problems two years ahead and taking the additional risk of currency movements?
    Lend to the US in your own currency and hedge accordingly.

  • @inurear
    @inurear 6 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    HE'S MAKING THIS BOOK FREE!?
    I was just about to buy it.

    • @mlxndr7
      @mlxndr7 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Yes, the download is free. I think the hardcover is to buy.

    • @c.s.70
      @c.s.70 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      That's still generous. He didn't have to go to the troubles and his time is more valuable than the money.

    • @Evan-jt7nt
      @Evan-jt7nt 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Already preordered. But yes, you can get a free copy of pdf version.

    • @clintonabdallah4807
      @clintonabdallah4807 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      quick and easy to download.

    • @Robert-dt3is
      @Robert-dt3is 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I mean I would still buy it to show support

  • @seanharracksingh279
    @seanharracksingh279 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Its March 2022, and Ray hit the nail right on the head.

  • @georgesavva1803
    @georgesavva1803 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Argentina is a better investment than Turkey but that is only because Turkey is the worst investment possible even in the current global environment. For starters the Turkish Banking system is a shambles. The second largest bank in Turkey (Halkbank) is insolvent (not only but also due to sanctions and penalties for the role it played in money laundering for high ranking figures in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard). The largest bank in Turkey (Turk Is Bankasi) is in a horrible fiscal position since the ruling AKP party announced its plans to 'nationalize' (de facto confiscation) shares of funds and individuals linked to the CHP which is the opposition party that owned a large chunk of the Bank by constitutional decree since it was created by Turkey's founding father (Mustafa Kemal).
    If that wasn't bad enough Turkey denied it had even a single covid-19 case until a week ago. They had strict censorship on media outlets but at the same time bloggers were smuggling footage of makeshift corona treatment hospitals that were full to the brink with dying patients. Now Turkey admits to 18,000 sick and around 500 deaths but to get a more accurate figure add two zeros to each of these phony estimates by the Turkish Government.
    Just as Finansbank was sold to (mostly) Greek Banks and financial institutions a little over a decade ago for cents on the dollar this will probably repeat itself except nobody is interested in buying into this because the private debt in Turkey is (per capita) triple to quadraple that of China and at the same time the Turkish Government has no more than 70 Billion dollars in reserves and that is not counting the liabilities that are at least a trillion dollars but possibly three to four trillion dollars. The Turkish Lira is currently trading at 6.4 to the USD. In the summer of 2017 the Turkish Lira fell from 3.6 to 6.5 literally overnight and then extended its slide to as low as 7.3. If this scenario is repeated expect the Turkish Lira to fall to double digits (probably 12-15 TL to the USD) by the end of the year. Oh and did I mention President Erdogan's party recently split in three and his popularity is at 25% and that he faces a Vietnam-like scenario in North Syria? I wouldn't touch this Turkey with a 10 foot pole.

  • @alexhe5835
    @alexhe5835 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What about UK?

  • @lewisjeffreys9175
    @lewisjeffreys9175 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    So what happens to the price of gold if the USD devaluates 30%. Would it go up 30%? How does that look in say AUD?

  • @ninabeach1
    @ninabeach1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    So what's going to happen in Turkey then in 2019?

  • @FEDisGangster
    @FEDisGangster 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Depression is the biggest opportunity to buy oil $20, Apple stock $10 etc...
    Love it and looking forward to get soon

    • @bobspizza7444
      @bobspizza7444 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      How will it work when we have a currency crisis and no one trusts a dollar bill anymore? That's what's coming I hope you understand.

  • @alejandrobasaldua5930
    @alejandrobasaldua5930 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Ray Dalio: ... So the secret to World peace is...
    Interviewer: but, by how much could the dollar go down?

  • @shackmatick5781
    @shackmatick5781 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Greetings from Medellin, and thanks for the news.

  • @GreenGold68
    @GreenGold68 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    It's comical when you hear him say "wages are rising" because adjusted for inflation they haven't risen at all.

  • @augustinsorret1445
    @augustinsorret1445 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    So if short term enthusiasm (rising wages and employment rates for instance) is not a good indicator for future wealth, what is ? Is it only about trying to follow as closely as possible the productivity growth ?

  • @tenningale
    @tenningale 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Revisiting March 2020

  • @mobileentertainment212
    @mobileentertainment212 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    11.20 they are about currency depreciation when they look at the interest rates. If US rates are rising, does this not usually increase the USD? why worry about US depreciation?

    • @mobileentertainment212
      @mobileentertainment212 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Is this because of interest rate parity? higher IR in US, means US is expected to depreciate relative to the currency with lower IR such that the eventual returns are the same

  • @ai.simplified..
    @ai.simplified.. 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Do anyone know the difrences of now to 1940?, we have dalio now but they didnt have him at 1940.
    Reccesion 2years away.! 12:50

  • @gerryjutsun1587
    @gerryjutsun1587 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    A very well reasoned and well thought out argument by a consummate financier - from a fellow economist and financier

  • @mikegeorge991
    @mikegeorge991 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you so much Ray

  • @MrSuperbluesky
    @MrSuperbluesky 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    How bad was 1937 downturn ? Seems we had long period of good times 1932 until 1962?

  • @grizzlymartin1
    @grizzlymartin1 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This is one of the rare moments I actually disagree with Mr. Dalio. Smart, but within a/his bubble, just the same. Still, worth listening to, to be sure.

  • @hendrywijaya2011
    @hendrywijaya2011 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Its annoying when someone interuppted Ray, i want get Ray's explanation, not the question

  • @ronyim4133
    @ronyim4133 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    4:46 the host realize he is over his head.

  • @reeve1able
    @reeve1able 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    he's not thrown a war in there - which always seems to magically start when the economy starts getting sticky - (which could if were to happen) weaken the dollar (as money is created to pay for war expenses) - which will make commodity prices rise & reverse those currencies that are struggling

  • @valilux251
    @valilux251 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    What exactly is he reffering to when he says, their local currency debt becomes wiped out. So that if you own that local currency debt you will be wiped out?

  • @mobileentertainment212
    @mobileentertainment212 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Any one can direct me to someplace where ray speaks more on the dollar crisis? Want to learn more on the mechanics.

  • @voluntad.creadora
    @voluntad.creadora 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    This aged amazingly well.

  • @MattRyan135790
    @MattRyan135790 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    "The capacity for QE has been maxed out" ...Not necessarily here in the US. They will be monetizing stocks before you know just like in Japan and Europe.

  • @willem3277
    @willem3277 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    The real problem with debt cycles is a lack of scrutiny in identifying investment opportunities. Unresolved information asymmetry as a result of incorrect focus, mostly lacking long-term views. The resolution is to better educate people in the Financial sector by focusing on securities analysis and business-sound thinking, rather than Macro oriented and quasi-strategical thinking!