Ola electric future in India is bright …. But so far stock is in downtrend and we can even see 90-80 rs in coming days …. I won’t recommend bulk buy but MONTHLY SIP would be highly recommended….
Short term, the price is bound to go down but will come back up if Ola moves closer to profitability for automotive segment in Q2 FY25 or if they release some favorable numbers on their bike preorders. Also, keep in mind that some 36 crore shares held by anchor investors will enter the market in next 2 months which can bring down the price.
@@nishantbirari9300 Yes competition exists in the scooter segment. I am hoping that they may be able to offer scooters with better features and specs at a lower price due to their focus on vertical integration (in-house cells) and heavy investment in R&D. Keep in mind that being a technology company first and then an automobile manufacturer gives them certain advantages in the EV space. You have seen this playing out in US with Tesla being the leader in this space.
I understand that not everyone will have the same opinion about Ola Electric. I am just trying to present my thoughts here and reasons for having that opinion. Hope it resonates with some. Thank you!
You've touched on some key points about the challenges facing the 110cc internal combustion engine (ICE) segment in the motorcycle and scooter market. The shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is indeed accelerating, and traditional manufacturers like Hero, Bajaj, and TVS are facing several hurdles as they transition. Here are some factors contributing to this shift and the associated challenges: Market Trends: The demand for electric vehicles is growing due to increasing environmental awareness, government incentives, and advancements in EV technology. This shift is expected to reduce the demand for ICE bikes and scooters. Economic Factors: As the market for 110cc ICE vehicles contracts, manufacturers might face higher costs due to lower economies of scale. This could drive up the prices of these vehicles, making them less competitive. Dealer and Employee Resistance: Transitioning to electric vehicles involves changing the entire ecosystem. Dealers accustomed to selling and servicing ICE vehicles need to adapt to EVs, which often requires new training and adjustments. Similarly, employees and management might need to shift their focus and skills, which can be challenging. Infrastructure and Consumer Adaptation: The success of EVs also depends on the development of charging infrastructure and consumer acceptance. In markets where these elements are still underdeveloped, the transition might be slower. Strategic Responses: Companies like Hero, Bajaj, and TVS are investing in EV technology and developing new products to stay relevant. However, the pace of change can vary, and overcoming internal and external resistance takes time. In summary, while the shift towards electric vehicles is inevitable, traditional manufacturers are facing significant challenges in adapting their business models, dealer networks, and workforce. The transition will be gradual and may involve overcoming various barriers, but the long-term trend towards EVs is clear. e.g.. Kodak is a classic example of a company that struggled with technological disruption. Despite being a pioneer in photography and holding a dominant position in the film industry, Kodak faced significant challenges in transitioning to the digital age.
I agree and have the same reasons you cited.. you put these across far better too.. I do think you were conservative and hence the potential for multibagger long term prospects are huge. Ty
Loved you analysis @raghavendradiga sir, Now I sense a lot of negativity surrounding the stock, and its price has dropped to an all-time low of 87. Do you still recommend this stock? Will the company recover from the challenges in its after-sales service?
I have invested for long term at around 104 per share. This is a time when rivals are having a great time due to negative publicity received by Ola. This cannot go on forever and company will recover from the losses. I am hesitant to take action based on social media and news media trends. Ultimately when company recovers from this, things will start moving up. We need updates on bikes, profitability, cells and so on which can bring back the stock to life. It is fashionable now to say that Ola products are junk which cannot be true. Just 2 months back they were heroes with the IPO and now they cannot become zero suddenly.
Very good analysis and presentation on the projected business growth of Ola based on facts. However Ola needs to address the prevailing concerns on the service delays and the quality of the products manufactured to sustain their growth. If Gen3 platform proves to be of greater quality, and if the in-house developed 4680 cell technology is proved to efficient then it will bring in more business to Ola. I'm not finding information on how the cell technology of 4680 is efficient than the current Lithium ion battery. Is it better than LFP batteries? Please share some insights if you know about them. Thanks.
Good case study, Sir.Lets hope that management will stay focused on the good work they r doing now.They should take immediate actions to improve customer satisfaction at service centers as reports r not good .Hope Ola will become a Global Brand from India in Future.
@@drmanojmohan651 Hope so too. Will be great to see EV giants from India shine abroad as well. They have a very good opportunity as explained in the video. Thanks for your thoughts.
Great analysis, i was worried as an investor in OLA due to daily negative nees on social media. But after watching your analysis, i will keep invested in this gem for next 2 years minimum.. thank you
Wow ! What an amazing effort you have put in researching the ev market and using that to forecast possible revenues. They should get away with the bad service tag that is widely socialized. I am sure they are working on that aspect, given now they are going to launch bikes as well.
@@vmadugun it is still in early years of growth. Just 2 years since they released the first 100 scooters and grew very fast. Things should improve over time. Thank you.
Good company analysis. Worth likes in big numbers for efforts. Finally should be supported by charts. Will love to see such analysis about. CG Power. HBL power. Shipping companies Olectra. Sonablw Ircon etc
Your analysis and way of presentation is awesome. I am neither investor nor anything to do with share market. However, as layman, how I see whole thing is- 1) Ola got first mover advantage 2) Ola scooters are very cheap or weak looking 3) Ola or any electric frame for scooter is not suitable for village scenario, which is major market 4) Driving these electric scooties are not as comfortable. They are also not safe. 5) Real players are yet to enter market 6) Ola is not able to maintain service level. It's product issue 7) Ola CEO mindset is always moving to something else, it can't run matured market 8) Electric scooters are yet to prove long term worth, same time, it seems low margin game As investor, we should anyway be only loving money and alternatives for investment.
@@ashoks8131 glad to know my analysis helped. Pls keep in mind this is a long term investment. In the short term, unless there is some favorable news, the stock price may go down when additional 36 crore shares of anchor investors enter the market in next 2 months. Post that period, the price is expected to go up if they confirm the delivery of their bikes.
@@SuccessBull-xj9qs there is always a risk with investing in equities. However, since we are entering the market early, I do hope we will see good gains from this stock. Hope Bhavish Agarwal will continue to put his full energy into this business and deliver results for everyone.
My analysis was for the long term returns. Short term, the price may actually go down. If things go well as per my calculations with revenues and slight profitability, the stock may give 5x returns in next 3-4 years.
@@raghavendradiga Sir, looking at the customer reviews on twitter and google their after sales service is pathetic. Unless they work on that I beg to differ from your view on OLA.
I am agreeing with you sir all your points are valid,even our government also focusing on EV.Ola is a good company for long term investment initially they are facing some challenges bue to new EV startup but I believe they will resolve it.soon Ev industry will grow up which will give advantage to ola.
Yes Bhavish mentioned this in a recent interview although he refused to give a timeline. We have not considered potential revenue from 3 wheelers here because we don't know when it will arrive. Thanks for your input.
amazing analysis , would closely watch execution and 2 wheeler sale data for this counter , do you think market leader Honda ( activa) coming with their 2 wheeler EV could impact sale for Ola
Yes competition could affect Ola sales. That will force Ola to get better at managing costs, improve customer service and price their scooters more aggressively. I think the vertical integration with 2 wheelers with in-house battery cells should provide them with extra leverage. If they can offer better range, performance at a lower price, they should still be able to sell quite a few of these over time. Great companies adapt over time and deliver value to their investors. We do not know which segment - bike, scooter or cell, will drive future growth for Ola. I have given only a few conservative figures and Ola should be able to pull it off if they persist with their efforts to become the EV leader here in India. Thanks for watching.
Personally for me 100 is a reasonable price to pay for this stock. Lots of things can happen in 3 years. They may become profitable, their bikes may sell well eventually due to cut throat pricing and low cost of ownership especially if the competition does not crop up in near future. Who knows, what levels the stock price will rise if this happens. We have seen the rally of Zomato after it became profitable. So let's wait and watch. It surely will be interesting.
Can't give specific buy sell recommendation but I am waiting for anchor investors lock-in to end and extra 38 crores shares come into the market in early November.
@@raghavendradiga thank you for ubr response. Usually from IPO listing date after how many working days lock in period will open for anchor, employees and pre- IPO holders?
Yes it is certainly possible. I have explained why in the video with examples of companies which are earning billions of dollars just from their lithium ion battery manufacturing business. Ola may not reach those levels but still the revenue will be substantial to make this stock rally hard in future. Thanks.
True and logical, but sometimes we must not miss out longterm value just because we do not understand the business, in financial terms ola scooter automotive business is almost break even, exempt for a one time fund allocation for the first quarter of this fiscal, (Ola Electric's automotive segment EBITDA was almost break-even but for a one-time reversal of about Rs 30 crore it had to pay for a change in standard operating procedure in the government for PLI rules). The battery business is just 1% of revenue now and growth potential is very big. With EV bikes opening up the plant asset utilisation will go up , but by the time this (4 to 6 quaters )happens OLA electric share price will be around Rs300 or more. But business is business and lot of things can go wrong, so I am adding OLA to the tune of Rs 5000 only in very small installments below the price of 150 and probably increase exposure if the business pans out as I think it would.
Put very well. Thanks. If we wait for profitability, we should be prepared to pay much higher price for the stock and that will come with bigger risk. Markets have been crazy these days, specially for new energy stocks.
If Ola bikes and scooters have some niche features then they may beat other market ice mfrs but if they are selling products similar to a Bajaj or Honda then it won't be easy to reach figures you are projecting, when there half a dozen big boys in the game ,it's not easy for Ola to justify these skyhigh valuation
@@globalknowledge2441 As per my research, Chinese scooters are not as good as Indian ones and they actually cost more. You can check the websites of Chinese manufacturers and compare the specs of Indian scooters with theirs.
@@AK-wj5nj You are absolutely right. Being a technology company first and automobile manufacturer next, hope companies like Ola and Tesla can innovate faster, remain on the forefront of technology with better R&D and beat the legacy auto manufacturers. The batteries and EVs are evolving at a furious pace. Ola just need to make sure they release quality products that work really well as advertised. And I have given very low figures for bikes and cell manufacturing. They may lose market share in scooters but hopefully they will make it up in bikes and cells. The current valuation for Ola is somewhat low if you consider what is possible with bikes and cell manufacturing where they have no competition here in India. Even with scooters, if lots of big boys enter the space and EVs become mainstream, Ola can gain back market share by releasing EVs which cost lower but have better specs in terms of range, charging speed, performance, software etc. Being a technology company which is into building its own cells, it has an advantage over its rivals.
I am not aware of any such technology. If there is one it is good for all of us, including Ola. Chinese two wheeler manufacturers do not have a major presence here anyway and I doubt they will considering the relations between the two countries.
Maps and Cloud are part of Ola Krutrim, which is a separate company within the Ola group. Only Ola Electric is public among the firms owned by Ola group.
Yes, competition is tough. Still I believe Ola Electric stock price is kind of undervalued for what they can achieve in the long run. If they lose market share in scooters, they may pull it off in bikes. If not bikes, probably in cell manufacturing. Or may be they will end up doing well in exports. If they really stay committed to this, something will work well eventually or everything will work in a reasonable way and my investment now will pay off. That is my thinking.
It's important to note that ola electric haa depreciation value recorded equivalent to Bajaj auto, which is a very established player. Ola electric is going to keep increasing machinery and hence depreciation on books. This looks bad
Sir how can a company like Ola with negative profit and increasingly ramping up the production be a good stock ….also hundreds of scooter logged in the service centres nearly months…my friends they are just fed of the service….for an ev it’s not just about battery….but also about other parts like software, timely service, customer service etc…example Tata know for their terribly bad service but has good products and strong built…but in case of Ola even the quality of built is damn poor , laggy software , no spare parts, fcking service company has enough parts for production. It has no spare parts… I really liked your analysis …but coming on customer part is the only thing I’m stuck with…and it’s not something which can be done in overnights…not even Tata motors has been able to do it
It is still an early stage startup which is trying out things. The first scooters were delivered only in 2022, which is two years ago and growth has been perhaps too fast for them to manage the large customer base. If you take a long term view of the firm, they cannot continue this way for long and will eventually find a way to serve their customers well. Unlike auto manufacturers who rely on dealerships and franchises for service/sales, they have their own stores and service centers which may not be working in their favor in many locations. It is still early days IMO. Let's wait and see.
@@raghavendradiga i think bhavish is testing the market by selling aggressively.service shd b a doable challenge for sm1 like bhavish whoz trying to crack much bigger challenges like battery etc.early days.i dont see why they wont be able to solve their service issues once they start focussing thr.mayb poach some good ppl frm rivals...
Yes, competition certainly exists. However, do keep in mind that Ola is a technology company first and then an automobile manufacturer. Like Tesla, they may have certain advantages over regular automobile manufacturers since the battery technology and EVs are evolving continuously and I believe companies like Ola and Tesla have their advantages. Being technology focused, they can innovate faster and invest heavily in R&D which can help them gain leadership in EVs over regular players in the auto sector. That's my two cents on this. Hope you see the point.
I have seen their sales on Dhanteras 😂😂😂😂😂 ola is gone. Tata bye bye. Whrn Hero, TVS, Honda are selling thausands of units from single showroom, ola is sitting empty।
Competition exists but my analysis was based on their ability to turn profitable and maintain reasonable market share in coming years. Those estimates for scooters, bikes and cells business combined don't look too far fetched to me.
Hi sir, My buying price is 132 and now price has came down at it's listing price 76. What should I do now? Kindly recommend should I hold if yes then how long will I get the price of 132+
If they manage to release bikes by Jan or so, the stock price can go up. It also depends on their quarterly results which are due in next few days and another in Jan. Any favorable comments from the mgmt regarding profitability and bikes will help stock recover.
Ok sir thank you. Can you tell me about FORCE MOTORS my buying price is 7726 which I have bought last month on september 1st week and waiting for target 9000. When will I see this target?
While the subsidy is directly passed on to the consumer, it indirectly benefits the OEMs by increasing the demand for their vehicles. Lower prices make EVs more competitive with traditional ICE vehicles, leading to higher sales volumes for the OEMs. As demand increases, OEMs can achieve economies of scale in production, which can lower their per-unit costs and improve profitability. Subsidies help expand the market for EVs, encouraging more consumers to make the switch. This growth in the market is crucial for OEMs as it helps them scale their operations and invest in further R&D and production capabilities. Even though the immediate price reduction benefits the consumer, the increased sales volume can lead to significant revenue growth for the OEMs, which might offset the lower margin on each vehicle.
@@kingsreeraj I spoke to couple of Ola EV owners and they seemed quite happy with their purchase. They wholeheartedly recommend their choice to others as well. What is your experience with them?
@@raghavendradiga my experience with from the feedback of my friends is the issues with service. Long que for service. Otherwise the vehicle is good as per them.
@@kingsreeraj glad to hear the vehicle itself is not the issue. My impression was that some buyers are having reliability issues and they are taking a long time to fix them. Ola does not have dealerships and has high attrition rate of around 50% in their stores and service centers. Let's hope they learn to deal with the same in coming days.
It will go down till 20 ,the ev market is failing and ola consumers are also not happy and overall market will qlso go down due to recession ,then i will buy
If you're looking for swing this is not the best time. But if for long then wait for few days and invest. The stock in down trend, my assumption it'll reach below 110. If it's so then invest. The stock will pickup in future for sure. Their products have issues, just need to fix. They need new talents, they need money to invest, they'll get it eventually.
I spoke with couple of relatives and they seem to be very happy with their purchase. Gen 2 Ola vehicles seem to be fine and in performance and range are better than their competitors. EVs are certainly not going away at least in the two wheeler segment. Their market will only go up with time here in India since there is no alternative. TCO is significantly higher for ICE vehicles.
@@hexagoncapitalbhadreshshah9552 my knowledge of technical analysis is rudimentary at best. But my understanding is that the stock price can see a downward trend for some more time until the 38 crores of anchor investors share comes into the market and plays out fully with next 2-3 months.
Let's hope he proves you wrong this time :-) He has repeatedly said he does not want to waste hard earned money of the public investors and he is 100% dedicated to success of Ola Electric since it is high growth business for them. He is involved in smaller details of this firm and only participates in strategic meetings for other businesses of Ola group. Let's hope he sticks to his promise.
@@raghavendradiga his best case scenario is 100$ profit/2w on 1.6m 2w he can make from 6.4gw. Thats 160m$. Another 1.4b at 10% profit he can make if he sells 14gw battery to other 2w. 300m$ pat is maybe worth 15bn and the stock already reached 7-8bn. For only 2x upside in 3-4 yrs as best case scenario with all execution risks, its not worth it
Dont lose your savings, buy tvs bajaj hero etc... ola service is shit, ground reality is totally different... Sales declining... Dont lose your savings ....
@@joysondsouza5819Bhavish has been stressing the quality of their product is closely related to the quality of the cell. The battery is the heart of an EV and they are the only ones here in India who are researching heavily on this. As far as I know range and performance of Ola scooters is already ahead of its competition and hopefully it will continue to get better. With aggressive pricing and pan India sales network, they should be able to maintain some of their market share. As I explained in the video, the current market cap does not require them to be another Hero or Bajaj or TVS. They just have to start showing profit and stock price should go up.
I believe they have a team of 1000 engineers in R&D. It is upto them to make everything work very well and that should happen eventually when they start focusing on quality and customer service little more than they do now. So far they have prioritized growth with aggressive pricing and attractive specs. Now that they have enough market share, hope they will move towards making their products work really well, at least in scooters.
I have already given a few reasons why I believe that they will become profitable in next 1-2 years. For some companies, profitability is not the focus initially. First spend money to build the manufacturing capability, prioritize growth over margins and then achieve profitability. Amazon, Tesla, Neflix, Facebook were not profitable for many many years but look where are they now. Ola may or may not grow as big as these giants but the point is that their stock price now is not so high that it requires them to grow that big. If I wait for that first crore, I should be willing to pay much bigger price for this stock and absorb greater risk. Not that it is a bad idea but it does not suit my needs.
Hello gentleman, first and foremost thing is the promoter has a very bad track record. It will never make profits if TVS and Mahindra get into EV 2 Wheelers. They are waiting and watching... What is the percentage of promoter holding? Let's wait and see if you are right. My sincere advice is never ever invest in this company. You will lose your hard earned money...
Promoter holding is around 35%. EVs are not exactly like ICE vehicles where auto manufacturers can just enter and crush the technology companies like Tesla, Ather and Ola. They have a learning curve as well just like Ola is going through a learning curve with auto sales and service. Let's see who wins. My prediction is that everyone has a space here since they have their pluses and minuses. In the near term until this technology matures, the one who innovates more and is in the forefront of the technology has an edge. If it was that easy, there was no need for Hero to invest in Ather.
We are not allowed to suggest a price for a stock or recommend the same directly. You should make your own decision. However, I am comfortable with a price of around 100 although in the long run, seeing the potential of this firm, I do not think it matters much if I invest by paying a slightly higher price. I am not looking to make a return of 10-20% here but a multifold returns in the long run. Hope this is clear.
![MV วิถีชีวิตใต้ - ผา อัยย๊ะ [Official MV HD]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/nODlkOUu9B0/mqdefault.jpg)
Ola electric future in India is bright …. But so far stock is in downtrend and we can even see 90-80 rs in coming days …. I won’t recommend bulk buy but MONTHLY SIP would be highly recommended….
Short term, the price is bound to go down but will come back up if Ola moves closer to profitability for automotive segment in Q2 FY25 or if they release some favorable numbers on their bike preorders.
Also, keep in mind that some 36 crore shares held by anchor investors will enter the market in next 2 months which can bring down the price.
It is completely loss company...
@@raghavendradiga what about competitors ? HERO motor corps buying ather , Bajaj , TVS e bikes ? They have access to rural markets
@@nishantbirari9300that is the real question, what it is unique about ola that others can't do
@@nishantbirari9300 Yes competition exists in the scooter segment. I am hoping that they may be able to offer scooters with better features and specs at a lower price due to their focus on vertical integration (in-house cells) and heavy investment in R&D.
Keep in mind that being a technology company first and then an automobile manufacturer gives them certain advantages in the EV space. You have seen this playing out in US with Tesla being the leader in this space.
You are the only person talking about business of companies and not the chart patterns. Thanks
@@knm1819 glad to know the analysis is helpful. For good or bad, technical analysis is not my cup of tea. Thanks 🙏
I am an IIM Graduate....Literally loved your analysis...please continue your analysis on other companies as well
@@abhinavkumar5097 Glad to hear you found my analysis useful. Thank you.
Nobody asked what graduate you are 😂
@@robo1989IIM/IIT Graduates credibility of statement matters as compared to general public
@@abhinavkumar5097 you can be a good employee to any company.
@@abhinavkumar5097
Your wisdom is undoubtedly the best on TH-cam, though many may find or try to find Holes, but the LIKES/following shows how wrong some are.
I understand that not everyone will have the same opinion about Ola Electric. I am just trying to present my thoughts here and reasons for having that opinion. Hope it resonates with some. Thank you!
You've touched on some key points about the challenges facing the 110cc internal combustion engine (ICE) segment in the motorcycle and scooter market. The shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is indeed accelerating, and traditional manufacturers like Hero, Bajaj, and TVS are facing several hurdles as they transition.
Here are some factors contributing to this shift and the associated challenges:
Market Trends: The demand for electric vehicles is growing due to increasing environmental awareness, government incentives, and advancements in EV technology. This shift is expected to reduce the demand for ICE bikes and scooters.
Economic Factors: As the market for 110cc ICE vehicles contracts, manufacturers might face higher costs due to lower economies of scale. This could drive up the prices of these vehicles, making them less competitive.
Dealer and Employee Resistance: Transitioning to electric vehicles involves changing the entire ecosystem. Dealers accustomed to selling and servicing ICE vehicles need to adapt to EVs, which often requires new training and adjustments. Similarly, employees and management might need to shift their focus and skills, which can be challenging.
Infrastructure and Consumer Adaptation: The success of EVs also depends on the development of charging infrastructure and consumer acceptance. In markets where these elements are still underdeveloped, the transition might be slower.
Strategic Responses: Companies like Hero, Bajaj, and TVS are investing in EV technology and developing new products to stay relevant. However, the pace of change can vary, and overcoming internal and external resistance takes time.
In summary, while the shift towards electric vehicles is inevitable, traditional manufacturers are facing significant challenges in adapting their business models, dealer networks, and workforce. The transition will be gradual and may involve overcoming various barriers, but the long-term trend towards EVs is clear.
e.g..
Kodak is a classic example of a company that struggled with technological disruption. Despite being a pioneer in photography and holding a dominant position in the film industry, Kodak faced significant challenges in transitioning to the digital age.
Thanks for posting these thoughts. New insights to think through.
@@raghavendradiga Thank you, I am learning lots from you Sir
I agree and have the same reasons you cited.. you put these across far better too.. I do think you were conservative and hence the potential for multibagger long term prospects are huge. Ty
Glad to hear this resonated with you. Thank you.
Loved you analysis @raghavendradiga sir, Now I sense a lot of negativity surrounding the stock, and its price has dropped to an all-time low of 87. Do you still recommend this stock? Will the company recover from the challenges in its after-sales service?
I have invested for long term at around 104 per share. This is a time when rivals are having a great time due to negative publicity received by Ola. This cannot go on forever and company will recover from the losses. I am hesitant to take action based on social media and news media trends. Ultimately when company recovers from this, things will start moving up. We need updates on bikes, profitability, cells and so on which can bring back the stock to life. It is fashionable now to say that Ola products are junk which cannot be true. Just 2 months back they were heroes with the IPO and now they cannot become zero suddenly.
Very good analysis and presentation on the projected business growth of Ola based on facts. However Ola needs to address the prevailing concerns on the service delays and the quality of the products manufactured to sustain their growth. If Gen3 platform proves to be of greater quality, and if the in-house developed 4680 cell technology is proved to efficient then it will bring in more business to Ola. I'm not finding information on how the cell technology of 4680 is efficient than the current Lithium ion battery. Is it better than LFP batteries? Please share some insights if you know about them. Thanks.
Good case study, Sir.Lets hope that management will stay focused on the good work they r doing now.They should take immediate actions to improve customer satisfaction at service centers as reports r not good .Hope Ola will become a Global Brand from India in Future.
@@drmanojmohan651 Hope so too. Will be great to see EV giants from India shine abroad as well. They have a very good opportunity as explained in the video. Thanks for your thoughts.
Very good analysis....
Thank you!
Explained in a very well manner and you have a good voice too keep up the good work and thank you for sharing the valuable knowledge
Nice of you to say this. Thank you.
Nice explanation sir✅
I am sinking in your predections
Thanks
Ome namo venkatesa 🙏.
Glad to hear you liked the facts and figures presented. Thank you!
Great analysis, i was worried as an investor in OLA due to daily negative nees on social media. But after watching your analysis, i will keep invested in this gem for next 2 years minimum.. thank you
Glad to hear that. Value of a company cannot be decided by everyday sensational or breaking news and stories. Let's hope Ola comes out of this soon.
Lets see how the story plays out. Thanks for sharing!
You are welcome!
Thank you very much Sir. So Great of you
Most welcome!
All the best bro
Thanks a lot for your analysis. I am always waiting for your New videos. Would you be able to increase the frequency?
It has become a bit easier now. I am aiming for one per week for now. Let's see. Thanks for your interest.
Wow ! What an amazing effort you have put in researching the ev market and using that to forecast possible revenues. They should get away with the bad service tag that is widely socialized. I am sure they are working on that aspect, given now they are going to launch bikes as well.
@@vmadugun it is still in early years of growth. Just 2 years since they released the first 100 scooters and grew very fast. Things should improve over time. Thank you.
Sir you are Great. God Bless you. Ola is future Multibager. Great Great Analysis sir ji.🙏🙏🙏🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
Thank you 🙏
Good company analysis.
Worth likes in big numbers for efforts.
Finally should be supported by charts.
Will love to see such analysis about.
CG Power.
HBL power.
Shipping companies
Olectra.
Sonablw
Ircon etc
Thank you. Will have a look at these stocks. Thanks for your suggestions.
Amazing analysis sir. Saving this video for next 5 years. 🙏🙏
Great 👍 Thank you.
Another wonderful video. Thank you so much for the detailed analysis 😊
You are welcome!
Thankyou so much such a great information.
@@varun24730 you are welcome!
How you have done Valuation of the Company is Top Notch Learnt many things Thank You
It's my pleasure. Thank you!
Your analysis and way of presentation is awesome.
I am neither investor nor anything to do with share market.
However, as layman, how I see whole thing is-
1) Ola got first mover advantage
2) Ola scooters are very cheap or weak looking
3) Ola or any electric frame for scooter is not suitable for village scenario, which is major market
4) Driving these electric scooties are not as comfortable. They are also not safe.
5) Real players are yet to enter market
6) Ola is not able to maintain service level. It's product issue
7) Ola CEO mindset is always moving to something else, it can't run matured market
8) Electric scooters are yet to prove long term worth, same time, it seems low margin game
As investor, we should anyway be only loving money and alternatives for investment.
I had bought very few stocks but now am confident to invest more thank you 🎉❤
@@ashoks8131 glad to know my analysis helped. Pls keep in mind this is a long term investment. In the short term, unless there is some favorable news, the stock price may go down when additional 36 crore shares of anchor investors enter the market in next 2 months. Post that period, the price is expected to go up if they confirm the delivery of their bikes.
35 rupees is real price
Loved the analysis, you should do more analysis videos like this ❤
Thank you! Will do!
Great analysis sir.. pls do more analysis on other high growth companies as well..
Sure will do. Thanks for your support.
Great analysis ❤
There's no slightest of the doubt that it's gonna be a multibagger🎉
@@SuccessBull-xj9qs there is always a risk with investing in equities. However, since we are entering the market early, I do hope we will see good gains from this stock. Hope Bhavish Agarwal will continue to put his full energy into this business and deliver results for everyone.
timely analysis for me. thanks
Welcome!
Amazing analysis of business, Sir.. and great presentation skills.. I am sure this channel will grow faster in the near future
🙏 Thank you!
Sir.. great analysis. Keep it up the good work!!!
Thanks a ton!
Sir your analysis Seriously valuable for investors 🙏🎉
Thanks a ton!
Great content 🙂
Glad you think so! Thanks!
Sir, i liked very much your deep dive analysis on ola scooter. kuldeep
Glad to hear that. Thank you!
Got to be a fan of your analysis!
@@michaelezaky5412 Thank you!
Many many thanks for this information
You are welcome!
Keep continuing sir, stupendous work❤
Thank you 😊
Excellent analysis,Sir.What is your target price.
My analysis was for the long term returns. Short term, the price may actually go down. If things go well as per my calculations with revenues and slight profitability, the stock may give 5x returns in next 3-4 years.
@@raghavendradiga Sir, looking at the customer reviews on twitter and google their after sales service is pathetic. Unless they work on that I beg to differ from your view on OLA.
Good one. Thanks
Welcome!
Jordar knowledge he sir apme. Ola is future of india
Hope so. Dhanyavad!
I am agreeing with you sir all your points are valid,even our government also focusing on EV.Ola is a good company for long term investment initially they are facing some challenges bue to new EV startup but I believe they will resolve it.soon Ev industry will grow up which will give advantage to ola.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Kya knowledge Mila bro
Fantastic
Thank you! Glad to hear it was helpful.
There’s 3 wheelers coming as well. 3 wheelers too has good market
Yes Bhavish mentioned this in a recent interview although he refused to give a timeline. We have not considered potential revenue from 3 wheelers here because we don't know when it will arrive. Thanks for your input.
amazing analysis , would closely watch execution and 2 wheeler sale data for this counter , do you think market leader Honda ( activa) coming with their 2 wheeler EV could impact sale for Ola
Yes competition could affect Ola sales. That will force Ola to get better at managing costs, improve customer service and price their scooters more aggressively. I think the vertical integration with 2 wheelers with in-house battery cells should provide them with extra leverage. If they can offer better range, performance at a lower price, they should still be able to sell quite a few of these over time.
Great companies adapt over time and deliver value to their investors. We do not know which segment - bike, scooter or cell, will drive future growth for Ola. I have given only a few conservative figures and Ola should be able to pull it off if they persist with their efforts to become the EV leader here in India.
Thanks for watching.
@@raghavendradiga thank you sir appreciate it
That's too good an analysis...
Thank you!
Very nicely explained
Glad to know. Thank you!
Superb analysis
Glad you think so! Thank you!
Please make a Video on New Listing of Premier Energy - IPO just closed on 30th Aug.
Sure I am thinking if I need to take up Premier Energies next for my stock analysis. Thanks for your suggestion.
Very nicely explained .
Thank you so much 🙂
Good explained sir..
Thanks!
How much did you invest if you can share?
Could have bought a few Ola S1 pros with that money :-)
Until they resolve their post service issues nothing's going to change
Thank you for your information about olectr
It's my pleasure!
Brilliant.
Thanks!
Good analysis 🎉🎉
Thank you!
Thanks sir
Welcome!
Thank yoy
You are welcome!
Adding till 1Lakh share my target!
@@NadeemAley-h1f not sure I understood this fully. Are you saying 1 lakh worth shares or 1 lakh quantity of shares?
@@raghavendradiga 1L quantity of share
Who's going to count depreciation?
Let's see 2025 company clear by future sir
@@cosmic..3683 yes, by the end of this year or start of next year we should have a clearer picture of the company direction. Thanks.
Atleast someone else is also positive on OLA
I can't see a strong reason why we shouldn't be positive, if we are thinking long term :-)
Super
Thanks!
I bought ola for 100 ...what can i expect in coming 3 years
Personally for me 100 is a reasonable price to pay for this stock. Lots of things can happen in 3 years. They may become profitable, their bikes may sell well eventually due to cut throat pricing and low cost of ownership especially if the competition does not crop up in near future. Who knows, what levels the stock price will rise if this happens. We have seen the rally of Zomato after it became profitable. So let's wait and watch. It surely will be interesting.
Or maybe it will come down to 70-80 , so better sell it and buy at new low
What price we can enter in OLA?
Can't give specific buy sell recommendation but I am waiting for anchor investors lock-in to end and extra 38 crores shares come into the market in early November.
@@raghavendradiga thank you for ubr response. Usually from IPO listing date after how many working days lock in period will open for anchor, employees and pre- IPO holders?
Lithium Ion Cells manufacturing may turn out to be their flagship. It is my assumption. Please confirm.
Yes it is certainly possible. I have explained why in the video with examples of companies which are earning billions of dollars just from their lithium ion battery manufacturing business. Ola may not reach those levels but still the revenue will be substantial to make this stock rally hard in future. Thanks.
Goodmorning Everyone, buy Ola share when they show first profit. Otherwise rest are nonsense
True and logical, but sometimes we must not miss out longterm value just because we do not understand the business, in financial terms ola scooter automotive business is almost break even, exempt for a one time fund allocation for the first quarter of this fiscal, (Ola Electric's automotive segment EBITDA was almost break-even but for a one-time reversal of about Rs 30 crore it had to pay for a change in standard operating procedure in the government for PLI rules). The battery business is just 1% of revenue now and growth potential is very big. With EV bikes opening up the plant asset utilisation will go up , but by the time this (4 to 6 quaters )happens OLA electric share price will be around Rs300 or more. But business is business and lot of things can go wrong, so I am adding OLA to the tune of Rs 5000 only in very small installments below the price of 150 and probably increase exposure if the business pans out as I think it would.
Put very well. Thanks. If we wait for profitability, we should be prepared to pay much higher price for the stock and that will come with bigger risk. Markets have been crazy these days, specially for new energy stocks.
Is ola kutrim part of ola electric?
No, it is a separate firm part of the same group.
Hope is never an investing strategy
Yes. That's true. Hope I presented enough facts and figures to make this a sensible investment.
If Ola bikes and scooters have some niche features then they may beat other market ice mfrs but if they are selling products similar to a Bajaj or Honda then it won't be easy to reach figures you are projecting, when there half a dozen big boys in the game ,it's not easy for Ola to justify these skyhigh valuation
@@raghavendradiga for export there is compitition from china , and cost also very less
@@globalknowledge2441 As per my research, Chinese scooters are not as good as Indian ones and they actually cost more. You can check the websites of Chinese manufacturers and compare the specs of Indian scooters with theirs.
@@AK-wj5nj You are absolutely right. Being a technology company first and automobile manufacturer next, hope companies like Ola and Tesla can innovate faster, remain on the forefront of technology with better R&D and beat the legacy auto manufacturers. The batteries and EVs are evolving at a furious pace. Ola just need to make sure they release quality products that work really well as advertised.
And I have given very low figures for bikes and cell manufacturing. They may lose market share in scooters but hopefully they will make it up in bikes and cells. The current valuation for Ola is somewhat low if you consider what is possible with bikes and cell manufacturing where they have no competition here in India.
Even with scooters, if lots of big boys enter the space and EVs become mainstream, Ola can gain back market share by releasing EVs which cost lower but have better specs in terms of range, charging speed, performance, software etc. Being a technology company which is into building its own cells, it has an advantage over its rivals.
China have developed some technology in ev battery manufacturing will it be a threat to ola.
Dear sir kindly revert on my comment.
I am not aware of any such technology. If there is one it is good for all of us, including Ola. Chinese two wheeler manufacturers do not have a major presence here anyway and I doubt they will considering the relations between the two countries.
How about Maps Business & Cloud?
Maps and Cloud are part of Ola Krutrim, which is a separate company within the Ola group. Only Ola Electric is public among the firms owned by Ola group.
Ola competition is tough, unless their product is superior, they are going to have a tough time, its a wait and watch situation
Yes, competition is tough. Still I believe Ola Electric stock price is kind of undervalued for what they can achieve in the long run. If they lose market share in scooters, they may pull it off in bikes. If not bikes, probably in cell manufacturing. Or may be they will end up doing well in exports.
If they really stay committed to this, something will work well eventually or everything will work in a reasonable way and my investment now will pay off. That is my thinking.
It's important to note that ola electric haa depreciation value recorded equivalent to Bajaj auto, which is a very established player. Ola electric is going to keep increasing machinery and hence depreciation on books. This looks bad
Sir how can a company like Ola with negative profit and increasingly ramping up the production be a good stock ….also hundreds of scooter logged in the service centres nearly months…my friends they are just fed of the service….for an ev it’s not just about battery….but also about other parts like software, timely service, customer service etc…example Tata know for their terribly bad service but has good products and strong built…but in case of Ola even the quality of built is damn poor , laggy software , no spare parts, fcking service company has enough parts for production. It has no spare parts… I really liked your analysis …but coming on customer part is the only thing I’m stuck with…and it’s not something which can be done in overnights…not even Tata motors has been able to do it
It is still an early stage startup which is trying out things. The first scooters were delivered only in 2022, which is two years ago and growth has been perhaps too fast for them to manage the large customer base. If you take a long term view of the firm, they cannot continue this way for long and will eventually find a way to serve their customers well. Unlike auto manufacturers who rely on dealerships and franchises for service/sales, they have their own stores and service centers which may not be working in their favor in many locations. It is still early days IMO. Let's wait and see.
@@raghavendradiga i think bhavish is testing the market by selling aggressively.service shd b a doable challenge for sm1 like bhavish whoz trying to crack much bigger challenges like battery etc.early days.i dont see why they wont be able to solve their service issues once they start focussing thr.mayb poach some good ppl frm rivals...
@@asaagar exactly, agree with you. They simply haven't prioritised the same. Eventually they will.
Ola is a Tesla for India incoming days it will can beat all
Yes, they have a very good opportunity. Let's hope they make the most of it. Thank you.
Ola market share is reducing trends.. it can retain 20 percentage in upcoming years
It is bound to fluctuate in near term. Long term, 20 percent market share seems reasonable.
With such huge potential, will established seasoned players like TVS, BAJAJ, not venture aggressively
Yes, competition certainly exists. However, do keep in mind that Ola is a technology company first and then an automobile manufacturer. Like Tesla, they may have certain advantages over regular automobile manufacturers since the battery technology and EVs are evolving continuously and I believe companies like Ola and Tesla have their advantages.
Being technology focused, they can innovate faster and invest heavily in R&D which can help them gain leadership in EVs over regular players in the auto sector. That's my two cents on this. Hope you see the point.
5 lac cr market cap 10% net profit basis with 100 PE for OLA by 2030 10x return from here
Hope this turns to be true. Thanks for posting.
but no service no hyper chargers
I have seen their sales on Dhanteras 😂😂😂😂😂 ola is gone. Tata bye bye. Whrn Hero, TVS, Honda are selling thausands of units from single showroom, ola is sitting empty।
True they are loosing their brand value. No one is going to trust any new vehicle coming from Ola
Dear Please check the final figures of October , OLA is leader with 41,000 units and market share far ahead above others.
Points not discussed here concerns me like OLA's domestic competition.
Competition exists but my analysis was based on their ability to turn profitable and maintain reasonable market share in coming years. Those estimates for scooters, bikes and cells business combined don't look too far fetched to me.
Hi sir, My buying price is 132 and now price has came down at it's listing price 76. What should I do now? Kindly recommend should I hold if yes then how long will I get the price of 132+
If they manage to release bikes by Jan or so, the stock price can go up. It also depends on their quarterly results which are due in next few days and another in Jan. Any favorable comments from the mgmt regarding profitability and bikes will help stock recover.
Ok sir thank you. Can you tell me about FORCE MOTORS my buying price is 7726 which I have bought last month on september 1st week and waiting for target 9000. When will I see this target?
Subsidy getting to end user , not OEM
While the subsidy is directly passed on to the consumer, it indirectly benefits the OEMs by increasing the demand for their vehicles. Lower prices make EVs more competitive with traditional ICE vehicles, leading to higher sales volumes for the OEMs.
As demand increases, OEMs can achieve economies of scale in production, which can lower their per-unit costs and improve profitability.
Subsidies help expand the market for EVs, encouraging more consumers to make the switch. This growth in the market is crucial for OEMs as it helps them scale their operations and invest in further R&D and production capabilities.
Even though the immediate price reduction benefits the consumer, the increased sales volume can lead to significant revenue growth for the OEMs, which might offset the lower margin on each vehicle.
@@raghavendradiga : once subsidy stopped by government after some years it will lower volume? Or ev sales sustain?
@@Bittergigglejoker If default choice is EVs as it is happening now in China, absence of subsidies won't make much difference.
They must improve service other wise customers will let them bite the dust
@@kingsreeraj I spoke to couple of Ola EV owners and they seemed quite happy with their purchase. They wholeheartedly recommend their choice to others as well. What is your experience with them?
@@raghavendradiga my experience with from the feedback of my friends is the issues with service. Long que for service. Otherwise the vehicle is good as per them.
@@kingsreeraj glad to hear the vehicle itself is not the issue. My impression was that some buyers are having reliability issues and they are taking a long time to fix them.
Ola does not have dealerships and has high attrition rate of around 50% in their stores and service centers. Let's hope they learn to deal with the same in coming days.
It will go down till 20 ,the ev market is failing and ola consumers are also not happy and overall market will qlso go down due to recession ,then i will buy
If you're looking for swing this is not the best time. But if for long then wait for few days and invest. The stock in down trend, my assumption it'll reach below 110. If it's so then invest. The stock will pickup in future for sure. Their products have issues, just need to fix. They need new talents, they need money to invest, they'll get it eventually.
I spoke with couple of relatives and they seem to be very happy with their purchase. Gen 2 Ola vehicles seem to be fine and in performance and range are better than their competitors.
EVs are certainly not going away at least in the two wheeler segment. Their market will only go up with time here in India since there is no alternative. TCO is significantly higher for ICE vehicles.
Technically it’s target is 187 in September 2024
@@hexagoncapitalbhadreshshah9552 my knowledge of technical analysis is rudimentary at best. But my understanding is that the stock price can see a downward trend for some more time until the 38 crores of anchor investors share comes into the market and plays out fully with next 2-3 months.
Don't buy im an ola owner service is very bad share is gonna come down because of people's bad reviews also sales
Don't buy ola
Dont waste your hard earned money on bhavish
Let's hope he proves you wrong this time :-) He has repeatedly said he does not want to waste hard earned money of the public investors and he is 100% dedicated to success of Ola Electric since it is high growth business for them. He is involved in smaller details of this firm and only participates in strategic meetings for other businesses of Ola group. Let's hope he sticks to his promise.
@@raghavendradiga his best case scenario is 100$ profit/2w on 1.6m 2w he can make from 6.4gw. Thats 160m$. Another 1.4b at 10% profit he can make if he sells 14gw battery to other 2w. 300m$ pat is maybe worth 15bn and the stock already reached 7-8bn. For only 2x upside in 3-4 yrs as best case scenario with all execution risks, its not worth it
Dont lose your savings, buy tvs bajaj hero etc... ola service is shit, ground reality is totally different... Sales declining... Dont lose your savings ....
@@joysondsouza5819Bhavish has been stressing the quality of their product is closely related to the quality of the cell. The battery is the heart of an EV and they are the only ones here in India who are researching heavily on this. As far as I know range and performance of Ola scooters is already ahead of its competition and hopefully it will continue to get better. With aggressive pricing and pan India sales network, they should be able to maintain some of their market share.
As I explained in the video, the current market cap does not require them to be another Hero or Bajaj or TVS. They just have to start showing profit and stock price should go up.
It is maruti of 80's
Hope they we will grow big in future!
1. Ola dont have good R&D
2. No good service culturally (eg.Tata , decades of bad service)
3. Falls commitment
Ola never can be good company
I believe they have a team of 1000 engineers in R&D. It is upto them to make everything work very well and that should happen eventually when they start focusing on quality and customer service little more than they do now. So far they have prioritized growth with aggressive pricing and attractive specs. Now that they have enough market share, hope they will move towards making their products work really well, at least in scooters.
Ola will go to 500 in 2 years
@@dipanjanpal3844 hope so. If they turn profitable in next few quarters, the stock should see some solid gains, especially in a bullish market.
Ola should first provide more service center with fast service and availability of all parts. Otherwise nobody will buy this scooter.
There is some news in the media about they revamping their service team. Let's wait and see if things improve in coming days.
Profit kidhar hai ? ? 1000 cr 😂 let it at-least earn its first cr.. tripling revenue without profit and increasing interest is a dooms day situation
I have already given a few reasons why I believe that they will become profitable in next 1-2 years. For some companies, profitability is not the focus initially. First spend money to build the manufacturing capability, prioritize growth over margins and then achieve profitability.
Amazon, Tesla, Neflix, Facebook were not profitable for many many years but look where are they now. Ola may or may not grow as big as these giants but the point is that their stock price now is not so high that it requires them to grow that big. If I wait for that first crore, I should be willing to pay much bigger price for this stock and absorb greater risk. Not that it is a bad idea but it does not suit my needs.
Hello gentleman, first and foremost thing is the promoter has a very bad track record. It will never make profits if TVS and Mahindra get into EV 2 Wheelers. They are waiting and watching... What is the percentage of promoter holding? Let's wait and see if you are right. My sincere advice is never ever invest in this company. You will lose your hard earned money...
Promoter holding is around 35%. EVs are not exactly like ICE vehicles where auto manufacturers can just enter and crush the technology companies like Tesla, Ather and Ola. They have a learning curve as well just like Ola is going through a learning curve with auto sales and service. Let's see who wins.
My prediction is that everyone has a space here since they have their pluses and minuses. In the near term until this technology matures, the one who innovates more and is in the forefront of the technology has an edge.
If it was that easy, there was no need for Hero to invest in Ather.
Suggest correct price to buy ola share
We are not allowed to suggest a price for a stock or recommend the same directly. You should make your own decision.
However, I am comfortable with a price of around 100 although in the long run, seeing the potential of this firm, I do not think it matters much if I invest by paying a slightly higher price. I am not looking to make a return of 10-20% here but a multifold returns in the long run. Hope this is clear.
It will become penny stock
Bhai tum to 1 machine me hi doob gye😢