We still have aces, it's just there an epidemic of pitching injuries that's impacting most of them. Forget marketability, how about availability period?
What is required to be an ace now on the mound takes a massive toll on the arm. Pitches low and away get taken yard. Opposite field homers from guys who aren't clearly juiced. 5 foot 9 guys dropping nearly 40/40 seasons. Basically everyone can hit homers now and can do it on a pitch at any spot in the strike zone. Avoiding homers on contact is impossible, so the next thing would be to just avoid contact and reduce the volume of contact. The best way teams have found to do this is velo.
@@kenw2225 That doesn't change a thing about batter approach. Everyone is going for homers, so pitchers throw harder, so batters stop trying for base hits and only go for homers, so pitchers throw harder, so batters go for homers... The real solution? SOFTEN THE BASEBALL so it doesn't fly as far. Oh, fans complained when they did that? Tough. It's for the long-term health of the game.
Mariners are just hoarding them... their pen threw the least innings of any team, by nearly 27 innings. likewise, it comes as no surprise that their SPs threw the most innings, while having the lowest ERA, most strikeouts, best opponent BA, and walking the fewest batters. Logan Gilbert led the league in IP with the lowest WHIP and nearly a 6 SO/BB rate. While only Woo has missed significant time over the past 2 seasons (knocking on wood right after I type this...).
What's crazy to me is that MLB, during a time when getting good/healthy starting pitchers is is not the norm, wants to expand the league. How do you find 10 more starters (2 new teams) when there is already a shortage of quality starting pitchers available today?
One guy who has priortized stuff and work over mqx velocity this year was Hunter Greene. He was averaging mid to late 90s on his fast ball this year versus max effort last year and he looks much better to boot
As a Phillies fan, I’ve been very luck in that the org focuses on durability and longterm health with starters. Our starters don’t throw super hard, the fastest you’ll see is typically 97 (Zack Wheeler and that’s when he’s throwing gas), but they can eat innings and get strikeouts. We had five complete games this year and two of them were by one guy (Cristopher Sanchez). We owe much of our success this year to the org’s pitching development.
It’s interesting that a team with 5 complete games is considered upper level these days. Jon Tudor had 10 complete game shutouts by himself as recently as 1985. The game has certainly changed.
They’re throwing too hard. Guys with 93 fastballs are overthrowing to 99-100. They’re all throwing 3 to 4 off speed pitches with 10+ inches with break that destroys the arm.
But the problem is, which I’m pretty sure he touched on, that this has become standard in todays game. Once you reach that benchmark, it trickles down into the developmental programs. So starting in high school, because it’s standard today, those pitchers will focus on throwing as hard as possible and as much break as possible, because that’s what major league teams want now. My question is this though: how is it that pitchers like Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, etc….who were all flame throwers, able to pitch like that as much as they did, and for longer without injury. Nolan Ryan not only threw gas, but his changeup and curveball had insane break. Randy threw gas, but also had a nasty slider that had insane break. Both pitched well into their 40’s, without Tommy John. And if you think about it, those guys didn’t have the workout regimen that players today have. What made them as durable as they were and todays pitchers as fragile as they are?
@@christopherkimber7679 Not sure about Walter Johnson but guys like Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens were big into strength and conditioning with weights. If anything a lot of these new guys are physically weak and don't lift. A notable exception being relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman who is still throwing over 100 in his mid 30s, he puts a lot of effort into building his muscles.
@@christopherkimber7679My elbow is toast from throwing a hard slider with small hands. I believe the difference between Randy’s ability to keep his arm healthy while throwing 98+ with a ridiculous slider; and the injured pitchers today throwing the same velo and break is in grips and mechanical issues. How your hand fits the ball affects how much grip pressure you need to get more spin; which is controlled by the UCL to help your fingers work the ball. Randy had gigantic hands and used a lower arm slot which let him put more spin on the ball with less of the torque of his delivery on his elbow than a more over the top delivery would. Mo had his cutter spinning so hard because his index and middle fingers were longer than they should be compared his others.
I grew up when it wasn't odd for 36 starts per year and 250 innings were normal for even pitchers that were not that great, Guys who'd go 14-13 with 4.45 ERA. If you'd go 6 man rotation, were talking about 27 starts per season and if they average the same innings per start, you're seeing these stars lesss. I miss when 34 starts was average and the off day meant the 5th man didn't have to pitch. Pitchers now are so different and so unimpressive. I'd rather see a guy out there for 7+ than these 5 and dive guys who can't get 200 innings. I think MLB was way better post-steroid area until about 2017. But even so, I think the steroid era was way more exciting than anything going on in today's game. The constant changes of today's game, I don't even remember discussions of rule changes in the 90s or 2000s. Also, it doesn't help when MLB's social media pages focus on mostly 1 player. They're really bad at highlighting so many others. If it's not the nightly Ohtani post or 5, it's Judge. I get why they do it, they're incredible players. But Anthony Santander crushed 44 homers in 2024, where's the press? MLB just has a marketing issue period. With the advent of social media, fans can get to know so many others players, it's all about marketing and MLB is failing. It can be that easy. Think about it, Baseball Tonight on ESPN had Web Gems, perfect. They had all the homers hit for the day. I mean the NHL has 3 stars for their games. MLB having things like this for daily posts would be incredible to help market all kinds of talent. But they're to busy promoting a few rather than the many. I'd love to for MLB and help fix the problem...But I'm just a fan and a Banker by trade.
It's all about velocity and spin rates nowadays. Pitcher's arms are getting abused in ways we've never seen. We have pitchers now having 2 Tommy John surgeries like DeGrom, Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Taillon, etc. Mcclanahan just had his 2nd, Spencer Strider had one TJ in 2019 and instead of a 2nd this year he went with the internal brace surgery for his UCL. FYI: The internal brace surgery uses an artificial material to repair the ulnar collateral ligament(UCL) and takes 9-12 months to heal. Tommy John is when the doctor takes a tendon from another spot in your body to replace the torn ligament and can take 12-18+ months to heal.
@14:40 ‐ the comments about young pitchers are spot on, and it's pretty sad. Even in 10u-12u little league play, pitchers that 'wow' everyone with hard throws are getting to play far more often than the smaller (slower-throwing) pitchers. It doesn't matter that the former is walking more batters because they can't control the ball, and the latter is getting more strike-outs. If coach sees the pitcher throwing "rainbows" (regardless of resulting in strikes), that pitcher is not viewed as highly.
I wonder if in like 25 years we'll look back at all these TJS surgeries and say "wow, that was avoidable. what were we thinking?" like we did with head injuries and CTEs. I keep hearing and reading its due to forced velocity but I mean... havent people always been throwing close to hard as possible? What's changed? Why do Japanese League pitchers have less arm injuries with way more innings? BTW, the Tigers have been using a two man rotation for months, and they've been the hottest team in baseball. Baseballs a crazy game.
The Tigers haven't necessarily been using a two man rotation because they've had a rotating cast of relievers and openers covering the other three spots.
From what I remember, NPB pitches every 6 games not 5 like MLB does. Anyway, it's really not sustainable to throw that hard and expect to throw 200 innings.
Different training regimens/advances in nutrition/etc have caused higher velocities. Guys were always trying to throw their hardest for sure but that limit was significantly less 50 or 75 years ago. NPB pitchers are also generally smaller and less powerful, plus they pitch every 6 games. They don't prioritize the crazy velocities and breaking stuff the MLB does.
Remember when AZ won a WS by using R-Johnson as a closer as well as a starter? Which do you want, an ace for a 78-84 club or a WS appearance w/ a team where the ace had 24 starts? Wins are important, not how they’re acquired.
sdchilling also went 1-4-7 that WS all on 3 days rest. He threw 3 straight complete games those playoffs. There hasn't been a playoff complete game since 2017.
I think something that doesn’t get talked about enough in the modern game is how the mechanics of pitching have changed. If you look at the old pitchers, most of them had drastically different mechanics than pitchers of today do. Nolan Ryan, a notorious fireballer, generated his power from the ground up. He was strong, to be sure, but he wasn’t “muscling” pitches to the plate as much as many of today’s pitchers seem to be doing. Another thing that has changed is less of a focus on location. Mariano Rivera had 1 pitch (exaggeration for effect) but his command was elite - to the effect of having 2 blown postseason saves and an ERA under 1 in the postseason. What about 3TO baseball? Introduce a ball that doesn’t have as much pop. Create balls in play. Bring back a focus on command and a dead ball, and you’ll be able to have star pitchers again.
Looking at literally the best starting pitcher and best closer of all time isn’t the best ways to compare them. Nolan Ryan had PERFECT mechanics meant to throw as fast as possible while being healthy, the problem with this is that is made him lose control, there’s a reason why he holds the record for the most walks, Nolan Ryan in today’s game would most likely be a closing pitcher. Mariano Rivera was once again, a closer, and had arguably the best pitch EVER in all of history.
Watching Glasgow talking about Thomas John being no biggie because you miss a year and don’t need another for 4-10 years kills me. Guys who need TJ are averaging another after 3 years. That first year the team will try to save their arm and we won’t see them as much. So we get two good years out of them every four years. Eventually teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar for guys with this type of production.
I think part of it's because when the current or well established aces were young they were expected to pitch as much as an mlb ace so they could develop faster when that workload needs to be steadily increased along with their body's development. I think some (not all) parents soiled some of these guys in that they pushed all those MLB talent appraisals onto them at a little league age. There's a sign at a primarily little league field near me that says "no scholarships will be handed out today" which I think is absurd to even have to say. There's also the rapid rise of kids 17 and under requiring Tommy John more than ever before at an alarming rate. The ace problem has to start by allowing kids to just be kids and steadily build up their workload and fitness level as they grow up if they want to seriously pursue baseball. None of these guys started just being able to pitch 9 innings from day 1 and I think a lot of people end up forgetting that once the talent appears.
MLB needs to establish more off-days for players, not just pitchers. Because the game is getting more and more intense and difficult, players need to exert more force and wear on their body. Injuries of course affect pitchers at a higher level than most positions(maybe catchers get hurt more) but allowing more off-days allows players to heal. How does MLB accomplish this, in all honesty, I don't have a concrete answer. The best I could think of is to start the season earlier or to end the season later as reducing the number of games isn't something that is ever going to be done on a year to year bases(2020 doesn't count for obvious reasons). The only other way to reduce pitcher injuries is lower inning totals but that doesn't solve the whole "Ace Shortage" problem. Great Video and an SRS Mike video is always great.
Reminds me of how the NBA load manages yet injuries are up more. But when I growing up some guys would approach 300+ IP. Guys these days are considered for Cy Young pitching well under 200 IP and that's why I can't support any pitcher winning MVP.
@@goblins2k5 Call it the Corbin Burnes award too. Zach Wheeler was robbed in 2021 despite pitching 46 more innings, having a much higher WAR and a comparable ERA. Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young despite pitching just 167 innings. Heck the year after Shohei pitched 166 IP, essentially the same as Corbin, but had comparable stats and a higher WAR and lower ERA but finished 4th. Not saying Shohei should've won it because there were 2 pitchers better than him in the AL that year, but the dude is a full time hitter as well. Burnes doesn't have to hit and only focus on pitching.
6:26 With Cone I've started to see lot of people consider him a snub and think he should get in through the Veterans' Committee due to him being one of the best strikeout pitchers of his era and being a key part of 5 World Series winning squads, he probably would've at least lasted longer on the ballot if he reached 200 wins.
Here’s a different perspective. Pitchers are getting injured more, because of the higher intensity required to get guys out these days. Better hitters are why pitchers are getting hurt more. They make you pay more often for mistakes so you have to make less. MLB glorifying offense has lead to the deterioration of arms.
Honestly, I wonder if pitchers are getting hurt because they're growing up and ruining their arms in their teenaged years before going pro. It's been highlighted over and over in the community that high velo and filthy break is now the priority in pitching because a few guys make it work, but I can tell you this from experience: an adolescent's shoulder, elbow, and wrist are not done developing... You absolutely can screw up your career before it ever starts. My coaches told me not to throw a slider due to the wrist action there, it can permanently disfigure a kid and ruin their chance at a career. So maybe what really needs to happen is that coaching needs to change from a low level up. I'd lay odds that these guys struggling with their elbows actually ruined them in the minors. Stuff/Command/Mental Battle>Velo/Break Now that's something you can do later on, you can lean into velo and break more after you've already made it to a higher level, then you have to ask yourself the question of "why does every fastball have to be max velo?" You can throw 93-94 and keep that 98-99 fastball in the pocket to surprise the hitter with. I'm just speculating, all of this could be nonsense, but I just have a hunch the elbow problem is starting with young kids trying to do things they shouldn't do.
Early breaking stuff probably isn't great. The UCL however doesn't really care how hard you throw. I've watched infielders in high school who threw about 80mph across the field blow an elbow out. If the UCL wants to go it's going to go.
@@TheGLORY13 then to me it sounds like a problem with technique. I'm sure there are all kinds of sports scientists and doctors working to figure all of this out.
Stretching to 6 starters is the much better idea. DH's have become way too important to give them up if a starter happens to have a bad day, and it will accomplish the exact opposite of what was intended when we did away with pitcher's hitting.
The easiest way to get more innings out of starting pitchers is to limit the number of pitchers on the active roster. It has been 13 for a few years. Make it 12 and limit the number of times a pitcher can be recalled from the minors per season.
One of the issue with aces today compared to aces of the past is we don’t get to see today’s aces anywhere near as much. Guys typically only throw 180 innings today, aces just 20 years ago were routinely throwing 250-275 innings a year
I think due to talent shortages historically being the issue with expanding a rotation beyond 4 men, rather than go to 6 adding a second off day every week and potentially reducing the season length to match would be a more workable way to create "Ace Day." I also want to take this opportunity to mention an idea i've been having similar to the Double Hook, but one that rewards longer outings rather than punishes shorter ones, and I think it helps solve hitter marketability that you outlined in your last video. If a Starter finishes 7 innings, his team gets a free substitution. Imagine being able to remove a good hitter who might be slow/a poor fielder but still keep his bat in the lineup. Imagine being able to ensure that the best hitter comes up in the late inning clutch situation by doing a double lineup swap and inserting him as a pinch hitter with men in scoring position in the 9th inning. If one of the issues with someone like Aaron Judge being a marketable star is that you can tune into a game and be up to 40 minutes away form seeing him bat, and you might only ever see him bat in a 2 outs, no one on situation where he's never given a pitch to swing at, then a free substitution would ensure that the biggest star is always available for the biggest moment in the game. It would give the game a basketball/hockey/soccer like feel where when the big moment happens and someone has to take the last second shot, you always know that it's going to Jordan or Gretsky or Messi who takes it. Would this fundamentally change the way the game is played forever? Absolutely, and I don't propose it lightly, but I think it would do the same thing of making those random June meaningless games feel that much more special if you knew that when the 8th or 9th inning rally happens it won't be the platoon hitters in the back of the lineup getting mowed down by a 106 mph throwing closer, it will always be the teams best.
Nah imagine how sick it would be to have 2 3 inning starters. Like a dynamic duo, they could pitch every 4th day or so and you could market them as a duo
Pedro is the first pitcher i remember the 100 pitch mark being talked about. Before that I don't recall any specific pitch count being used to justify taking a pitcher out regardless of how they were throwing.
Yeah because they pitch way faster with more spin. The game is always going to change, changing rules to try and prevent that is the dumbest possible option. Every sport changes with time.
Because you can have a failed "ace" in the bullpen ready to throw one inning to lock up a game. I call them failed aces because they didn't have good enough stuff to make it through the opposing rotation twice.
As relief innings increase, the effectiveness of those innings decreases. Starter and reliever ERA is about the same now. There comes a point when it makes sense to keep the better arm on the mound, even if it’s subject to the “third time through the lineup penalty.”
@@CosmicStar3 true. But limiting innings doesn’t seem to be working to reduce injury risk. Seems to be an issue of development and conditioning. And pitching max effort
@@Charlie-gk1uq It’s a mixture of the both, but if you’re saying limiting innings doesn’t work, then shouldn’t every team just have their best pitcher pitch every day? Surely it will have no effect on the arm as innings pitched doesn’t cause injuries
They did, but nowadays pitchers just can’t get to 20 wins unless they’re lucky. It’s not that they’re “softer”, they have to throw harder, and less, because hitters are better. Hitters can hit low 90s with movement. The only way you sit in the low 90s with consistent success, you have to have the most break and extension in baseball. It’s just different from what it was
And it won't even matter. It's not like anyone wants SPs to throw less innings, it just makes sense for them to throw less in modern times. The game changes, oh well, now we get to see more relivers with nasty stuff.
1. Pitch timer gives the pitchers more pressure on their arms because of less in-game rest. Now they wear out quicker. 2. Technology. Teams can breakdown ace SPs even before game. Once your strategy is exposed in, say, 5 innings you gotta swap even if you’re an ace pitcher. The game is evolving so we’re not seeing the common complete games as we’re used to, until perhaps new rules that benefit SPs are introduced.
people mention the pitch clock totally ignoring injuries have been going up for 20 years before the pitch clock. that's not the reason guys keep getting hurt.
Only four players threw over 200 innings this year: Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler. Only the Mariners and Phillies had more than one starter go over 190.
down 3-1 in '03 NL Finals, Josh Becket threw a 11K shutout, then gave up 1 run in 4 innings in game 7 coming in for relief... in the World Series he first took a loss giving up 2 runs in 7+ innings... THEN HE FINISHED THE SEASON AT YANKEE STADIUM THROWING A SHUT OUT... for the entire '03 playoffs Beckett gave up 10 runs in 42+ innings for a 2.11era with 47K's... one of my favorite viewing experiences as a baseball fan... in 2005 i sat 40 rows behind home plate, Beckett was throwing Shoulder-To-Shins Curveballs with his 98mph fastball standing 6 feet 5 inches, i have no idea how MLB hitters ever hit the ball hard; Carlos Zambrano (he threw 3/4 delivery, almost sidearm) was the other pitcher and would start his slider at the batter's ass and maybe it would hit the outside corner or it might be outside for a ball... fax!!!
in the 8th inning with the Yankees down 2 Soriano gets on the lead off the inning... legendary fastball hitter Derek Jeter comes up, Beckett throws him 6 straight fastballs including falling behind 2-0 and 3-1 and all Jeter can do is fly out to center; one of my all-time favorite showdowns... after the out Jeter is looking at the mound like "did that mother fucker just throw me 6 straight fastballs with the game on the line and i could do nothing with it???"...
The extra day of rest and extra pitcher is a good idea. Also the concept of Ace day and that being a selling point is something that if the league capitalize on could be a really good thing for baseball. Only time will yell how things play out.
durability came from using pitchers from highschool on up for expected 7 innings minimum. The selective , high stress use of hurlers from young age , for only a few batters is deteriorating the art of pitching. Maddux , literally, got his skillset by throwing bottle caps at pieplates in his backyard. Kids don't do that any longer. Pitching will make a comeback when this specialized, 3 inning pitcher usage era dies . Leave the kid out there to get hammered for a few innings & it'll come back. (edit: the death was in progress then the DH was implemented in the NL was the last knife pushed into the back of MLB)
There’s something else that’s caused this that I feel you missed. The fact that analytics has told teams that performance drops drastically a third time through the lineup has also has a huge impact on these early hooks. In fact, that may be the number 1 factor in these early hooks.
which is amazing bc it's flat out not true for legit great pitchers and never has been. yes the league on a whole it's true. but for studs absolutely not.
Analytics are causing a lot of the issues, it’s incentivizing young guys to throw hard as that’s the easiest way to get drafted and noticed for college. It really only takes one team to win a championship with a different philosophy to change the game. The perceived problem with pitcher duels is morons like Stephen A Smith and other talking heads would constantly talk about how boring it is or baseball in general is to watch. They implement pitching clocks to “speed up” the game, but they’re just trying to artificially generate action, hence bans on the shift, bigger bases and just about every other rule they’ve changed recently. If you want more aces stop making rules to go against pitchers at every turn. The leagues solution, let’s force a player getting hit early to stay out there until they hit certain innings or pitch count, again more things to hurt pitchers. Surely that won’t inflate eras. If you get pulled early cause of a tweak you have to go to the IL, so more pitchers will play through tweaks compounding issues. The simple solution is stop making rules to hurt pitchers.
I like the pitch clock but i do think it needs like 2or 3 more seconds cause the demand to throw almost immediately afterwards can be a whole new level of workload and trying to reach high velocity every time can really stress their arms
Wheeler accomplished 200 innings pitched this season. He was among 4 who hit that milestone (Gilbert, Webb, and Lugo), but he was certainly the best of the 4 with the most Ks and lowest ERA
Adding an extra arm to the starting rotation is a great idea. I mean as a Cubs fan, Imanaga was brilliant-he was an ace. There are still aces-we just have an epidemic of pitching injuries ESPECIALLY Tommy John
As a Tigers fan right now, I'm not sold on needing to see a starter every game or adding rules to encourage that. However, I do agree that ace days would be a cool addition on the weekends, and I would enjoy the return of complete games from pitchers who have a potential no hitter going.
3 relief pitchers allowed on a team would solve the problem. Same with outlawing batting gloves and other equipment batters and runners use would of speed up the game without a pitch clock
Y'know, if the old school counting stat guys are the ones who are absolute must see guys, maybe we should go back to valuing those stats more. Baseball is entertainment after all, easier to sell a guy who's chasing 200 wins than a guy whose spin rate and WAR are optimal.
Well they can't stay healthy and lose out overall. Need guys to throw 95 mph fastballs and 87 offspeed. Maybe even slower. Guys used to swinging at 100mph every at bat don't do well with 70s mph speeds
@@elliskennedy9885 What would be good for the team is drawing a crowd and giving them the entertainment they want. Tell a crowd that the man on the mound is just 1 away from 200 wins and that generates excitement. Tell them that he's on track to have the lowest FIP ever recorded and half the stadium is gonna be asleep before the announcement is finished. Nobody goes to the ballpark for advanced metrics, they go for the counting stats.
The maximum effort velocity and spin rate approach is killing arms. It gets outs, but it ruins careers. Teams need to find a more balanced approach. Starters need to focus on control, changing speeds, and location instead of max RPMs and velocity. Get that closer to throw 1-2 innings at top velocity/spin. Relievers need to be a blend of both so you get short and long relief pitching.
I found it amazing that Multiple Cy Young award winner Blake Snell had NEVER pitched in the 9th inning prior to this seasons(2024) No Hitter. That’s crazy!!
What top comment said. So many great pitchers. Get more UCLs than NBA players get ACLs it seems.... But honestly... I don't think limited pitch counts n innings really works. Kinda like the load management in 🏀....
I guess the bias of Yamamoto (in the US) is because NPB have the guys who can last longer than YY himself, such as his former teammate at ORIX, midget southpaw Hiroya Miyagi, his understudy at NT Hiroto Takahashi, and ofc, the "Monster of Reiwa Era", and close confidant of him, Roki Sasaki. Yet, the case against three of them--who are world champions before turning 25--- are plentiful. The first, Neither Miyagi, Hiroto, nor Roki can't be 'advertised' as much abroad not only because they are NOT in MLB yet, their pitching approach is far-fetched from the "american way of baseball", and it's due to the draconian copyright law of Japan.
Scherzer, Verlander and Kershaw were the last of this i fear. Cole is carrying the torch but Boone wont let him dog it out in the late innings most times anyway
You need to look into what the Brewers and Tigers have done this year to mitigate this problem. Far more so with the Tigers and the "PITCHING MADNESS" over the past 2 months. For the first time in MLB postseason history, the Tigers won a game without a single pitcher going more than 1.2 innings. This has continued from the regular season where there were really only 2 "starters" every week in Skubal and Montero. Skubal will most likely win the AL cy young after winning the Triple Crown, and Montero is a rookie who has struggled for most of the year. They lost Mize for over 2 months this summer, they lost Olson for over a month, Meada was moved to the bullpen due to poor performance, and Flaherty was traded away at the deadline. So after losing almost their whole rotation, they were forced into pitching many bullpen games late into the summer. Then they took off on August 11th after beating the Yankees in extras at the little league world series moving their post-season odds to .2%. Since then, they have been almost unstoppable going 31-11 and surging into the post-season. That success can almost completely be put on the bullpen that has hands down the best numbers of any team out there in that stretch while having to completely pitch over half the games. They are reinventing pitching right now the same way the A's invented moneyball in the early 2000's Please look into this almost storybook run and make a video. If they win the WS, there will be movies made about this team.
I dont think the proposed rule changes will do anything at all. I think majority of pitchers would rather risk injury than have their pitches be less effective. Some pitchers just pitch better with throwing hard. They would basically have to change their mechanics to find an effective way to keep getting results they want.
There is plenty of data to show that length is not as valuable as throwing hard and throwing max effort. The third time through the order penalty shows exactly this. The simplest way to train starters to go long again is to limit how many pitchers teams can carry. Starters have to go long, they can’t go max effort all the time, starters become prominent again and maybe it also helps increase offense a bit. It’s a win win
Except most pitchers come to MLB pre-broken due to overuse during their developmental years, so this wouldn't actually help things and would just lead to more pitcher burnout.
I’m not a fan of the 6-inning minimum for starting pitchers. The consequence of pulling a starting pitcher early is that you have to use up more of your bullpen for that game so there is an inherent risk to that
Well the Braves DID have an ace, but his career is in jeopardy because he got hurt and the surgery has a bad track record. So they're forced to rely on Sale being the ace.
The trend is probably going to go the opposite way; we're going to see fewer innings out of pitchers going forward, not more. Statistics show that pitcher success rates go down the more often they pitch through the batting order, even for the best aces. What the Tigers have done in August and September this year with basically ONE starter and pitcher-by-committee is going to influence a lot of managers. You can say people want recognizable star pitchers, but I think most fans would trade that for a winning team. If having pitchers pitch no more than once through the batting order results in measurably more team wins, that's what's going to happen.
This is awesome. Todays pitching isnt pitching. It's throwing. Pitchers have lost pride in getting the win, but more of the strike outs and highest velocity instead of winning the game. It's sad that the metrics people who couldnt play the game have changed the way people view it. But it's also the people who are teaching or think they are teaching the game that have helped doctors make billions on Tommy John surgery. Pitching is an art and skill todays players want to throw like they are hitting max bench on the mound and thats what is causing Tommy John not the amount of pitches. If the amount of pitches were the case, why don't catchers have Tommy John more often than pitchers?
Regardless of potential scheduling changes, six man rotations just feel inevitable. Teams are becoming obsessive with workload management for their arms and that would give them a built in form of it within their roster construction
I like the extra day, but also should implement a pitch count aswell, max 111 if there already isn’t a count ( 111 is the max for Texas HS at least), it also falls to mechanics and that’s more difficult to change, but the mechanics of today put immense strain on shoulders and elbows to the point where we see the TJ surgeries. The change should be a combination of these things mechanics, pitch cap, and 6 days of rest
Love the idea of ace day. I'd combine it with the double pull idea. Personally so sick of the over emphasis of random relievers that have a shelf life of 4 (often sporadic) years over building a quality rotation. Roster management has become almost random with health being the primary factor, and that makes baseball boring IMO.
Myth of ace staring pitcher might be real. The NLDS Game 4 was an interesting example. If you have good relievers from 1st to 9th innings one by one, the opponent team has hard time hitting them. Some small market teams should implement this bullpen day every day team composition.
sure that's cute when it works. but give me the real ace. Would you rather have Curt Schilling in his prime for 8-9 innings or hope 7-9 relivers all have it that day?
As nice as the weekly starter idea sounds, I just don't see how it would work in practice. How exactly are you going to force teams to all use their aces on the same days? How would we get teams to all pick up an extra quality starter when there's a shortage of pitchers as it is? What would stop a team from deviating from the schedule in order to gain an advantage?
I know it won't happen, but I think the way that "wins" are awarded should be radically rethought. Why does a starting pitcher who goes 8 innings with zero runs allowed not get the win when a closer comes in and gives up a run in the 9th that ties the game, but the closer that blows the save gets the win if their team walks it off in the bottom of the 9th? Who REALLY is most instrumental for their team's victory should get the W
The high velocity/ Tommy John surgery investigation is going to take at least until the end of the decade to garner any conclusive data. Personally I’ll be watching closely these five teams, Rays, Marlins, Dodgers, Astros and Orioles. The Rays have already three starters that returned this year in Springs, Rasmussen, and Baz. We might see McClanahan next year. If the Rays successfully aligned their starters healthy windows they could have an ace every day. Astros and Orioles look to be cooking a super staff for next year as well. Teams will just need more pitching overall with deeper farm systems to stagger out workloads throughout the year via a IL revolving door.
6 man rotations, and pre sticky balls like in japan. MLB owns rawlings so it should be super easy to do. Give the pitchers more grip, less pressure in the hand less injuries.
I just watch random games based on the best pitching matchups. Former Oakland fan... Changing the schedule won't let teams line things up nicely to play their best starters on weekend matchups or something, they'll be minor injuries enough people take a day or two off from that it'd toss it around. The idea of an extra day of rest could do something to keep starters healthy, but ultimately I don't think much. Many injuries for pitchers are caused by other minor injuries forcing them to alter mechanics. Pushing through trying to deliver 100% effort when something feels a little wrong. The day of rest can help with that a bit, but there's not much to say it'll save everyones elbows all of a sudden. Kids in college are getting TJ like crazy, I'd love to see stats from Japanese leagues but I doubt TJ ain't looming over their pitchers too. I just don't think the extra day will save the starter role. Human bodies reached its limit, we're really good at teaching kids out the pen, and know that 3rd+ time through the order is a giant issue. Until we get data that shows extra velo is bad (we won't), it'll just keep headed this way.
When teams are asking pitchers to throw more fastballs to the point where their arms are turning into shredded meat. Then, yes. We do have a shortage of Aces.
It is a shame the game has gone away from as many elite pitching matchups. But it is nice when a good pitchers duel happens in todays game even tho it’s rare
Matt Harvey was reaching unforeseen heights during his dark knight era. Paul Skenes in a big market will b out of this world. But starters r going to b a thing of the past, look at what the tigers r doing right now with their rotation …
Sadly on videos like these the not so smart baseball fans come out and leave comments about “old baseball” like the game isn’t completely different than it was even 20 years ago. 🥴 Man casual baseball fans suck.
i can already see the comments… “But but but- greg maddux and tony gwynn were the best players 🥺” “These young players only throw fast 😡” “Contact hitting needs to be more valued!! 😤!” “Back in my day pitchers used to pitch 8 innings and 300 batting average was standard! 🤓☝️” “All these kids do now is try to hit homeruns and throw 100 mph fastballs! 😒” “What ever happened to the art of hitting the ball the other way and outsmarting the batters? 😔”
We still have aces, it's just there an epidemic of pitching injuries that's impacting most of them. Forget marketability, how about availability period?
What is required to be an ace now on the mound takes a massive toll on the arm. Pitches low and away get taken yard. Opposite field homers from guys who aren't clearly juiced. 5 foot 9 guys dropping nearly 40/40 seasons. Basically everyone can hit homers now and can do it on a pitch at any spot in the strike zone. Avoiding homers on contact is impossible, so the next thing would be to just avoid contact and reduce the volume of contact. The best way teams have found to do this is velo.
They need to drop velo under 80mph on pitchess. That's the answer to this issue. Slower pitchers will be the aces in 10-15 years
@@kenw2225bro I haven’t played since 13yo and I could hit 75mph u tripping
@@kenw2225 try doing with Judge or Ohtani in the box
@@kenw2225 That doesn't change a thing about batter approach.
Everyone is going for homers, so pitchers throw harder, so batters stop trying for base hits and only go for homers, so pitchers throw harder, so batters go for homers...
The real solution? SOFTEN THE BASEBALL so it doesn't fly as far. Oh, fans complained when they did that? Tough. It's for the long-term health of the game.
Mariners are just hoarding them... their pen threw the least innings of any team, by nearly 27 innings. likewise, it comes as no surprise that their SPs threw the most innings, while having the lowest ERA, most strikeouts, best opponent BA, and walking the fewest batters. Logan Gilbert led the league in IP with the lowest WHIP and nearly a 6 SO/BB rate. While only Woo has missed significant time over the past 2 seasons (knocking on wood right after I type this...).
It does help that they pitch in the worst park possible for hitters
Mariners play in a historically non hitter friendly park and the away and home starts back it up. There's a reason the braves beat them in team era
Real
@@RealCGH braves SP propaganda is hilarious fyi and like I said, go lol at m’s SP home/away splits.
It helps to play at one of the worst hitters parks in baseball
What's crazy to me is that MLB, during a time when getting good/healthy starting pitchers is is not the norm, wants to expand the league. How do you find 10 more starters (2 new teams) when there is already a shortage of quality starting pitchers available today?
You don’t need starting pitching to win; you can just use a bullpen game.
The quality of offense will decrease too, which means pitchers won't have to throw as hard to get the same results.
@@chrisdecker4300 qqQQq
I still wish Tim Lincecum's career was acknowledged by the hall for the ridiculous peak despite the injury problems that followed.
His peak is certainly HOF worthy. It was long enough to get some buzz imo
4 years and kept my Cardinals from winning the Cy Young… great pitcher
Yeah 😢
I agree... if Sandy Koufax can get elected to the Hall of Fame based on an insane 5 year peak, why do they refuse to elect Tim Lincecum?
@@dunkelmonkey 6 years
One guy who has priortized stuff and work over mqx velocity this year was Hunter Greene. He was averaging mid to late 90s on his fast ball this year versus max effort last year and he looks much better to boot
Greene has been great this year.
He also added a splitter to his repertoire. I'm excited for next year when's he able to put it all together as a reds fan
Hunter Greene also had the highest Velo of any starter who threw at least 150 innings this year. So he’s a bad example to use
He has the most FWAR and WAR of any pitcher in the NL
As a Phillies fan, I’ve been very luck in that the org focuses on durability and longterm health with starters. Our starters don’t throw super hard, the fastest you’ll see is typically 97 (Zack Wheeler and that’s when he’s throwing gas), but they can eat innings and get strikeouts. We had five complete games this year and two of them were by one guy (Cristopher Sanchez). We owe much of our success this year to the org’s pitching development.
It’s interesting that a team with 5 complete games is considered upper level these days. Jon Tudor had 10 complete game shutouts by himself as recently as 1985. The game has certainly changed.
@@lon90471985 isn’t recent man haha
They’re throwing too hard. Guys with 93 fastballs are overthrowing to 99-100. They’re all throwing 3 to 4 off speed pitches with 10+ inches with break that destroys the arm.
👆we have emphasized heat and the human arm can’t handle it
But the problem is, which I’m pretty sure he touched on, that this has become standard in todays game. Once you reach that benchmark, it trickles down into the developmental programs. So starting in high school, because it’s standard today, those pitchers will focus on throwing as hard as possible and as much break as possible, because that’s what major league teams want now. My question is this though: how is it that pitchers like Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, etc….who were all flame throwers, able to pitch like that as much as they did, and for longer without injury. Nolan Ryan not only threw gas, but his changeup and curveball had insane break. Randy threw gas, but also had a nasty slider that had insane break. Both pitched well into their 40’s, without Tommy John. And if you think about it, those guys didn’t have the workout regimen that players today have. What made them as durable as they were and todays pitchers as fragile as they are?
@@christopherkimber7679 Not sure about Walter Johnson but guys like Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens were big into strength
and conditioning with weights. If anything a lot of these new guys are physically weak and don't lift. A notable exception being relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman who is still throwing over 100 in his mid 30s, he puts a lot of effort into building his muscles.
@@christopherkimber7679My elbow is toast from throwing a hard slider with small hands. I believe the difference between Randy’s ability to keep his arm healthy while throwing 98+ with a ridiculous slider; and the injured pitchers today throwing the same velo and break is in grips and mechanical issues.
How your hand fits the ball affects how much grip pressure you need to get more spin; which is controlled by the UCL to help your fingers work the ball.
Randy had gigantic hands and used a lower arm slot which let him put more spin on the ball with less of the torque of his delivery on his elbow than a more over the top delivery would. Mo had his cutter spinning so hard because his index and middle fingers were longer than they should be compared his others.
@doublem1975x Walter Johnson just had that blue collar work strength. Grew up on a farm, worked the oil fields, etc.
I grew up when it wasn't odd for 36 starts per year and 250 innings were normal for even pitchers that were not that great, Guys who'd go 14-13 with 4.45 ERA.
If you'd go 6 man rotation, were talking about 27 starts per season and if they average the same innings per start, you're seeing these stars lesss.
I miss when 34 starts was average and the off day meant the 5th man didn't have to pitch.
Pitchers now are so different and so unimpressive.
I'd rather see a guy out there for 7+ than these 5 and dive guys who can't get 200 innings.
I think MLB was way better post-steroid area until about 2017.
But even so, I think the steroid era was way more exciting than anything going on in today's game.
The constant changes of today's game, I don't even remember discussions of rule changes in the 90s or 2000s.
Also, it doesn't help when MLB's social media pages focus on mostly 1 player. They're really bad at highlighting so many others.
If it's not the nightly Ohtani post or 5, it's Judge. I get why they do it, they're incredible players.
But Anthony Santander crushed 44 homers in 2024, where's the press?
MLB just has a marketing issue period.
With the advent of social media, fans can get to know so many others players, it's all about marketing and MLB is failing.
It can be that easy. Think about it, Baseball Tonight on ESPN had Web Gems, perfect.
They had all the homers hit for the day.
I mean the NHL has 3 stars for their games. MLB having things like this for daily posts would be incredible to help market all kinds of talent.
But they're to busy promoting a few rather than the many.
I'd love to for MLB and help fix the problem...But I'm just a fan and a Banker by trade.
100% agreed
Yes sir
MLB is so blinded by Paul Skenes that they forgot to advertise Hunter Greene and Skubal. The two best pitchers statwise this year in baseball.
It's all about velocity and spin rates nowadays. Pitcher's arms are getting abused in ways we've never seen. We have pitchers now having 2 Tommy John surgeries like DeGrom, Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Taillon, etc. Mcclanahan just had his 2nd, Spencer Strider had one TJ in 2019 and instead of a 2nd this year he went with the internal brace surgery for his UCL.
FYI: The internal brace surgery uses an artificial material to repair the ulnar collateral ligament(UCL) and takes 9-12 months to heal. Tommy John is when the doctor takes a tendon from another spot in your body to replace the torn ligament and can take 12-18+ months to heal.
@14:40 ‐ the comments about young pitchers are spot on, and it's pretty sad. Even in 10u-12u little league play, pitchers that 'wow' everyone with hard throws are getting to play far more often than the smaller (slower-throwing) pitchers. It doesn't matter that the former is walking more batters because they can't control the ball, and the latter is getting more strike-outs. If coach sees the pitcher throwing "rainbows" (regardless of resulting in strikes), that pitcher is not viewed as highly.
I wonder if in like 25 years we'll look back at all these TJS surgeries and say "wow, that was avoidable. what were we thinking?" like we did with head injuries and CTEs. I keep hearing and reading its due to forced velocity but I mean... havent people always been throwing close to hard as possible? What's changed? Why do Japanese League pitchers have less arm injuries with way more innings?
BTW, the Tigers have been using a two man rotation for months, and they've been the hottest team in baseball. Baseballs a crazy game.
The Tigers haven't necessarily been using a two man rotation because they've had a rotating cast of relievers and openers covering the other three spots.
From what I remember, NPB pitches every 6 games not 5 like MLB does.
Anyway, it's really not sustainable to throw that hard and expect to throw 200 innings.
Different training regimens/advances in nutrition/etc have caused higher velocities. Guys were always trying to throw their hardest for sure but that limit was significantly less 50 or 75 years ago. NPB pitchers are also generally smaller and less powerful, plus they pitch every 6 games. They don't prioritize the crazy velocities and breaking stuff the MLB does.
Clarify for me, Detroit or Hanshin? I'm assuming you're referring to Detroit.
From what I’ve heard some of the best Japanese players get injured and fizzle out in highschool because of the insane work load
Remember when AZ won a WS by using R-Johnson as a closer as well as a starter?
Which do you want, an ace for a 78-84 club or a WS appearance w/ a team where the ace had 24 starts? Wins are important, not how they’re acquired.
sdchilling also went 1-4-7 that WS all on 3 days rest. He threw 3 straight complete games those playoffs. There hasn't been a playoff complete game since 2017.
Changing the DH won’t change the problem or the evolution about the game.
17:11 we love ourselves a good old "DUMBEST BOY ALIVE" reference
I think something that doesn’t get talked about enough in the modern game is how the mechanics of pitching have changed. If you look at the old pitchers, most of them had drastically different mechanics than pitchers of today do. Nolan Ryan, a notorious fireballer, generated his power from the ground up. He was strong, to be sure, but he wasn’t “muscling” pitches to the plate as much as many of today’s pitchers seem to be doing.
Another thing that has changed is less of a focus on location. Mariano Rivera had 1 pitch (exaggeration for effect) but his command was elite - to the effect of having 2 blown postseason saves and an ERA under 1 in the postseason.
What about 3TO baseball? Introduce a ball that doesn’t have as much pop. Create balls in play.
Bring back a focus on command and a dead ball, and you’ll be able to have star pitchers again.
Looking at literally the best starting pitcher and best closer of all time isn’t the best ways to compare them.
Nolan Ryan had PERFECT mechanics meant to throw as fast as possible while being healthy, the problem with this is that is made him lose control, there’s a reason why he holds the record for the most walks, Nolan Ryan in today’s game would most likely be a closing pitcher.
Mariano Rivera was once again, a closer, and had arguably the best pitch EVER in all of history.
@@CosmicStar3 ryan isn't close to the best starter ever. he would be if he had control.
Rivera was a cyborg and no reliever should be compared to him.
Watching Glasgow talking about Thomas John being no biggie because you miss a year and don’t need another for 4-10 years kills me. Guys who need TJ are averaging another after 3 years. That first year the team will try to save their arm and we won’t see them as much. So we get two good years out of them every four years. Eventually teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar for guys with this type of production.
The point he didn't want to say out loud is that he gets paid either way. Why would you want to go to work when you can get paid to stay home?
As with everything else in life, the market will correct itself.
Ohtani had TJ surgery twice already...
I think part of it's because when the current or well established aces were young they were expected to pitch as much as an mlb ace so they could develop faster when that workload needs to be steadily increased along with their body's development. I think some (not all) parents soiled some of these guys in that they pushed all those MLB talent appraisals onto them at a little league age. There's a sign at a primarily little league field near me that says "no scholarships will be handed out today" which I think is absurd to even have to say. There's also the rapid rise of kids 17 and under requiring Tommy John more than ever before at an alarming rate. The ace problem has to start by allowing kids to just be kids and steadily build up their workload and fitness level as they grow up if they want to seriously pursue baseball. None of these guys started just being able to pitch 9 innings from day 1 and I think a lot of people end up forgetting that once the talent appears.
MLB needs to establish more off-days for players, not just pitchers. Because the game is getting more and more intense and difficult, players need to exert more force and wear on their body. Injuries of course affect pitchers at a higher level than most positions(maybe catchers get hurt more) but allowing more off-days allows players to heal. How does MLB accomplish this, in all honesty, I don't have a concrete answer. The best I could think of is to start the season earlier or to end the season later as reducing the number of games isn't something that is ever going to be done on a year to year bases(2020 doesn't count for obvious reasons).
The only other way to reduce pitcher injuries is lower inning totals but that doesn't solve the whole "Ace Shortage" problem.
Great Video and an SRS Mike video is always great.
Theyre throwing less and getting hurt more. Obviously theyre doing something wrong
For players yes, for teams no
They need to be throwing 95 tops and 82 on off speed.
@@kenw2225 Then they're gonna get lit up and be sent down to the minors because hitters are too good for that...
They’re also throwing harder.
no one would look for pitchers like that, and they would get lit up
Reminds me of how the NBA load manages yet injuries are up more. But when I growing up some guys would approach 300+ IP. Guys these days are considered for Cy Young pitching well under 200 IP and that's why I can't support any pitcher winning MVP.
They're gonna have to call it the Blake Snell award from now on.
@@goblins2k5 Call it the Corbin Burnes award too. Zach Wheeler was robbed in 2021 despite pitching 46 more innings, having a much higher WAR and a comparable ERA. Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young despite pitching just 167 innings. Heck the year after Shohei pitched 166 IP, essentially the same as Corbin, but had comparable stats and a higher WAR and lower ERA but finished 4th. Not saying Shohei should've won it because there were 2 pitchers better than him in the AL that year, but the dude is a full time hitter as well. Burnes doesn't have to hit and only focus on pitching.
Helped back when hitters sucked so bad they struggled with 90...
@@TyrannoJoris_Rex hitters were way worse and pitchers were throwing fastballs in the 80s way, way, way more recently than people think.
@@carlhannah1884 Yeah fastballs didn't average 90 till after the steroid era
6:26 With Cone I've started to see lot of people consider him a snub and think he should get in through the Veterans' Committee due to him being one of the best strikeout pitchers of his era and being a key part of 5 World Series winning squads, he probably would've at least lasted longer on the ballot if he reached 200 wins.
Here’s a different perspective. Pitchers are getting injured more, because of the higher intensity required to get guys out these days. Better hitters are why pitchers are getting hurt more. They make you pay more often for mistakes so you have to make less. MLB glorifying offense has lead to the deterioration of arms.
BABES WAKE TF UP ITS AN SRS MIKE MLB VIDEO
Little cringe but you do you
Honestly, I wonder if pitchers are getting hurt because they're growing up and ruining their arms in their teenaged years before going pro. It's been highlighted over and over in the community that high velo and filthy break is now the priority in pitching because a few guys make it work, but I can tell you this from experience: an adolescent's shoulder, elbow, and wrist are not done developing... You absolutely can screw up your career before it ever starts. My coaches told me not to throw a slider due to the wrist action there, it can permanently disfigure a kid and ruin their chance at a career.
So maybe what really needs to happen is that coaching needs to change from a low level up. I'd lay odds that these guys struggling with their elbows actually ruined them in the minors.
Stuff/Command/Mental Battle>Velo/Break
Now that's something you can do later on, you can lean into velo and break more after you've already made it to a higher level, then you have to ask yourself the question of "why does every fastball have to be max velo?" You can throw 93-94 and keep that 98-99 fastball in the pocket to surprise the hitter with.
I'm just speculating, all of this could be nonsense, but I just have a hunch the elbow problem is starting with young kids trying to do things they shouldn't do.
Early breaking stuff probably isn't great.
The UCL however doesn't really care how hard you throw. I've watched infielders in high school who threw about 80mph across the field blow an elbow out. If the UCL wants to go it's going to go.
@@TheGLORY13 then to me it sounds like a problem with technique. I'm sure there are all kinds of sports scientists and doctors working to figure all of this out.
That second theory sounds like one of those pie in the sky things that looks great on paper but will fall apart once implemented lol
Stretching to 6 starters is the much better idea. DH's have become way too important to give them up if a starter happens to have a bad day, and it will accomplish the exact opposite of what was intended when we did away with pitcher's hitting.
The easiest way to get more innings out of starting pitchers is to limit the number of pitchers on the active roster. It has been 13 for
a few years. Make it 12 and limit the number of times a pitcher can be recalled from the minors per season.
One of the issue with aces today compared to aces of the past is we don’t get to see today’s aces anywhere near as much. Guys typically only throw 180 innings today, aces just 20 years ago were routinely throwing 250-275 innings a year
I think due to talent shortages historically being the issue with expanding a rotation beyond 4 men, rather than go to 6 adding a second off day every week and potentially reducing the season length to match would be a more workable way to create "Ace Day."
I also want to take this opportunity to mention an idea i've been having similar to the Double Hook, but one that rewards longer outings rather than punishes shorter ones, and I think it helps solve hitter marketability that you outlined in your last video.
If a Starter finishes 7 innings, his team gets a free substitution. Imagine being able to remove a good hitter who might be slow/a poor fielder but still keep his bat in the lineup. Imagine being able to ensure that the best hitter comes up in the late inning clutch situation by doing a double lineup swap and inserting him as a pinch hitter with men in scoring position in the 9th inning.
If one of the issues with someone like Aaron Judge being a marketable star is that you can tune into a game and be up to 40 minutes away form seeing him bat, and you might only ever see him bat in a 2 outs, no one on situation where he's never given a pitch to swing at, then a free substitution would ensure that the biggest star is always available for the biggest moment in the game. It would give the game a basketball/hockey/soccer like feel where when the big moment happens and someone has to take the last second shot, you always know that it's going to Jordan or Gretsky or Messi who takes it.
Would this fundamentally change the way the game is played forever? Absolutely, and I don't propose it lightly, but I think it would do the same thing of making those random June meaningless games feel that much more special if you knew that when the 8th or 9th inning rally happens it won't be the platoon hitters in the back of the lineup getting mowed down by a 106 mph throwing closer, it will always be the teams best.
Nah imagine how sick it would be to have 2 3 inning starters. Like a dynamic duo, they could pitch every 4th day or so and you could market them as a duo
Pedro is the first pitcher i remember the 100 pitch mark being talked about. Before that I don't recall any specific pitch count being used to justify taking a pitcher out regardless of how they were throwing.
It's hard to make a pitcher feel "dominant" when they're done by the 7th inning. They don't make them like Halladay anymore.
Yeah because they pitch way faster with more spin. The game is always going to change, changing rules to try and prevent that is the dumbest possible option. Every sport changes with time.
Because you can have a failed "ace" in the bullpen ready to throw one inning to lock up a game.
I call them failed aces because they didn't have good enough stuff to make it through the opposing rotation twice.
As relief innings increase, the effectiveness of those innings decreases. Starter and reliever ERA is about the same now.
There comes a point when it makes sense to keep the better arm on the mound, even if it’s subject to the “third time through the lineup penalty.”
But it’s also trying not to injure the pitchers
@@CosmicStar3 true. But limiting innings doesn’t seem to be working to reduce injury risk. Seems to be an issue of development and conditioning. And pitching max effort
@@Charlie-gk1uq It’s a mixture of the both, but if you’re saying limiting innings doesn’t work, then shouldn’t every team just have their best pitcher pitch every day? Surely it will have no effect on the arm as innings pitched doesn’t cause injuries
@@CosmicStar3 there's a balance. but when you use starters less and less and they get hurt more and more it doesn't seem to be working.
One season the Orioles had four 20 game winners….
They did, but nowadays pitchers just can’t get to 20 wins unless they’re lucky. It’s not that they’re “softer”, they have to throw harder, and less, because hitters are better. Hitters can hit low 90s with movement. The only way you sit in the low 90s with consistent success, you have to have the most break and extension in baseball. It’s just different from what it was
Once Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire, 200+ innings season after season will be unheard of.
Logan Gilbert just cleared 200 innings
@@FrodohTBaggins Yes but that used to be over a dozen guys a season 15-20 years ago.
@@ryanrau6714 absolutely, I grew up in the maddux, Johnson, Clemens, etc era. Those were the days
Pedro . Don't forget the best pitcher of the era
And it won't even matter. It's not like anyone wants SPs to throw less innings, it just makes sense for them to throw less in modern times. The game changes, oh well, now we get to see more relivers with nasty stuff.
1. Pitch timer gives the pitchers more pressure on their arms because of less in-game rest. Now they wear out quicker.
2. Technology. Teams can breakdown ace SPs even before game. Once your strategy is exposed in, say, 5 innings you gotta swap even if you’re an ace pitcher.
The game is evolving so we’re not seeing the common complete games as we’re used to, until perhaps new rules that benefit SPs are introduced.
What rules would you have in mind to help starting pitchers
people mention the pitch clock totally ignoring injuries have been going up for 20 years before the pitch clock. that's not the reason guys keep getting hurt.
Only four players threw over 200 innings this year: Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler. Only the Mariners and Phillies had more than one starter go over 190.
down 3-1 in '03 NL Finals, Josh Becket threw a 11K shutout, then gave up 1 run in 4 innings in game 7 coming in for relief... in the World Series he first took a loss giving up 2 runs in 7+ innings... THEN HE FINISHED THE SEASON AT YANKEE STADIUM THROWING A SHUT OUT... for the entire '03 playoffs Beckett gave up 10 runs in 42+ innings for a 2.11era with 47K's... one of my favorite viewing experiences as a baseball fan... in 2005 i sat 40 rows behind home plate, Beckett was throwing Shoulder-To-Shins Curveballs with his 98mph fastball standing 6 feet 5 inches, i have no idea how MLB hitters ever hit the ball hard; Carlos Zambrano (he threw 3/4 delivery, almost sidearm) was the other pitcher and would start his slider at the batter's ass and maybe it would hit the outside corner or it might be outside for a ball... fax!!!
in the 8th inning with the Yankees down 2 Soriano gets on the lead off the inning... legendary fastball hitter Derek Jeter comes up, Beckett throws him 6 straight fastballs including falling behind 2-0 and 3-1 and all Jeter can do is fly out to center; one of my all-time favorite showdowns... after the out Jeter is looking at the mound like "did that mother fucker just throw me 6 straight fastballs with the game on the line and i could do nothing with it???"...
The extra day of rest and extra pitcher is a good idea. Also the concept of Ace day and that being a selling point is something that if the league capitalize on could be a really good thing for baseball. Only time will yell how things play out.
Honestly assuming no new rule changes one day we might be talking about the last pitcher to throw 200 innings in a season
durability came from using pitchers from highschool on up for expected 7 innings minimum. The selective , high stress use of hurlers from young age , for only a few batters is deteriorating the art of pitching.
Maddux , literally, got his skillset by throwing bottle caps at pieplates in his backyard. Kids don't do that any longer. Pitching will make a comeback when this specialized, 3 inning pitcher usage era dies . Leave the kid out there to get hammered for a few innings & it'll come back.
(edit: the death was in progress then the DH was implemented in the NL was the last knife pushed into the back of MLB)
Lack of injuries is why i love nola
There’s something else that’s caused this that I feel you missed. The fact that analytics has told teams that performance drops drastically a third time through the lineup has also has a huge impact on these early hooks. In fact, that may be the number 1 factor in these early hooks.
which is amazing bc it's flat out not true for legit great pitchers and never has been. yes the league on a whole it's true. but for studs absolutely not.
Analytics are causing a lot of the issues, it’s incentivizing young guys to throw hard as that’s the easiest way to get drafted and noticed for college. It really only takes one team to win a championship with a different philosophy to change the game. The perceived problem with pitcher duels is morons like Stephen A Smith and other talking heads would constantly talk about how boring it is or baseball in general is to watch. They implement pitching clocks to “speed up” the game, but they’re just trying to artificially generate action, hence bans on the shift, bigger bases and just about every other rule they’ve changed recently. If you want more aces stop making rules to go against pitchers at every turn. The leagues solution, let’s force a player getting hit early to stay out there until they hit certain innings or pitch count, again more things to hurt pitchers. Surely that won’t inflate eras. If you get pulled early cause of a tweak you have to go to the IL, so more pitchers will play through tweaks compounding issues. The simple solution is stop making rules to hurt pitchers.
SAS talking baseball when he knows absolutely nothing about the sport is pure torture.
I like the pitch clock but i do think it needs like 2or 3 more seconds cause the demand to throw almost immediately afterwards can be a whole new level of workload and trying to reach high velocity every time can really stress their arms
Wheeler accomplished 200 innings pitched this season. He was among 4 who hit that milestone (Gilbert, Webb, and Lugo), but he was certainly the best of the 4 with the most Ks and lowest ERA
This channel is so elite, hope the ace day idea actually happens that would be dope
Adding an extra arm to the starting rotation is a great idea. I mean as a Cubs fan, Imanaga was brilliant-he was an ace. There are still aces-we just have an epidemic of pitching injuries ESPECIALLY Tommy John
As a Tigers fan right now, I'm not sold on needing to see a starter every game or adding rules to encourage that. However, I do agree that ace days would be a cool addition on the weekends, and I would enjoy the return of complete games from pitchers who have a potential no hitter going.
3 relief pitchers allowed on a team would solve the problem. Same with outlawing batting gloves and other equipment batters and runners use would of speed up the game without a pitch clock
Y'know, if the old school counting stat guys are the ones who are absolute must see guys, maybe we should go back to valuing those stats more. Baseball is entertainment after all, easier to sell a guy who's chasing 200 wins than a guy whose spin rate and WAR are optimal.
Old school counting stats dont matter to the teams and for a good reason which is why they aren't incentivized to chase those numbers
Well they can't stay healthy and lose out overall. Need guys to throw 95 mph fastballs and 87 offspeed. Maybe even slower. Guys used to swinging at 100mph every at bat don't do well with 70s mph speeds
@@kenw2225 the league average velocity is 94 mph on fastballs, very few guys are actually throwing 100 consistently
@@elliskennedy9885 What would be good for the team is drawing a crowd and giving them the entertainment they want. Tell a crowd that the man on the mound is just 1 away from 200 wins and that generates excitement. Tell them that he's on track to have the lowest FIP ever recorded and half the stadium is gonna be asleep before the announcement is finished. Nobody goes to the ballpark for advanced metrics, they go for the counting stats.
That's great if you want to be like the Yankees and not win anything in the modern era
This guy is THE GOAT having a pierre bourne instrumental in a baseball vid 🕺🕺
The maximum effort velocity and spin rate approach is killing arms. It gets outs, but it ruins careers. Teams need to find a more balanced approach. Starters need to focus on control, changing speeds, and location instead of max RPMs and velocity. Get that closer to throw 1-2 innings at top velocity/spin. Relievers need to be a blend of both so you get short and long relief pitching.
I found it amazing that Multiple Cy Young award winner Blake Snell had NEVER pitched in the 9th inning prior to this seasons(2024) No Hitter. That’s crazy!!
What top comment said. So many great pitchers. Get more UCLs than NBA players get ACLs it seems.... But honestly... I don't think limited pitch counts n innings really works. Kinda like the load management in 🏀....
Posting this the same day corbin burnes pitches into the 9th inning in a playoff game is wild
I guess the bias of Yamamoto (in the US) is because NPB have the guys who can last longer than YY himself, such as his former teammate at ORIX, midget southpaw Hiroya Miyagi, his understudy at NT Hiroto Takahashi, and ofc, the "Monster of Reiwa Era", and close confidant of him, Roki Sasaki. Yet, the case against three of them--who are world champions before turning 25--- are plentiful. The first, Neither Miyagi, Hiroto, nor Roki can't be 'advertised' as much abroad not only because they are NOT in MLB yet, their pitching approach is far-fetched from the "american way of baseball", and it's due to the draconian copyright law of Japan.
6:26 NONE of them have 10+ WAR above Sale...which in 3-5 years left must pass that with ease.
Scherzer, Verlander and Kershaw were the last of this i fear. Cole is carrying the torch but Boone wont let him dog it out in the late innings most times anyway
You need to look into what the Brewers and Tigers have done this year to mitigate this problem.
Far more so with the Tigers and the "PITCHING MADNESS" over the past 2 months. For the first time in MLB postseason history, the Tigers won a game without a single pitcher going more than 1.2 innings.
This has continued from the regular season where there were really only 2 "starters" every week in Skubal and Montero. Skubal will most likely win the AL cy young after winning the Triple Crown, and Montero is a rookie who has struggled for most of the year.
They lost Mize for over 2 months this summer, they lost Olson for over a month, Meada was moved to the bullpen due to poor performance, and Flaherty was traded away at the deadline.
So after losing almost their whole rotation, they were forced into pitching many bullpen games late into the summer. Then they took off on August 11th after beating the Yankees in extras at the little league world series moving their post-season odds to .2%.
Since then, they have been almost unstoppable going 31-11 and surging into the post-season. That success can almost completely be put on the bullpen that has hands down the best numbers of any team out there in that stretch while having to completely pitch over half the games.
They are reinventing pitching right now the same way the A's invented moneyball in the early 2000's
Please look into this almost storybook run and make a video. If they win the WS, there will be movies made about this team.
Sandy from the Marlins was a pure ace his CY season
I dont think the proposed rule changes will do anything at all. I think majority of pitchers would rather risk injury than have their pitches be less effective. Some pitchers just pitch better with throwing hard. They would basically have to change their mechanics to find an effective way to keep getting results they want.
There is plenty of data to show that length is not as valuable as throwing hard and throwing max effort. The third time through the order penalty shows exactly this. The simplest way to train starters to go long again is to limit how many pitchers teams can carry. Starters have to go long, they can’t go max effort all the time, starters become prominent again and maybe it also helps increase offense a bit. It’s a win win
Except most pitchers come to MLB pre-broken due to overuse during their developmental years, so this wouldn't actually help things and would just lead to more pitcher burnout.
This is very similar to the NFL’s problem with running backs & NBA’s problem with defense
I’m not a fan of the 6-inning minimum for starting pitchers. The consequence of pulling a starting pitcher early is that you have to use up more of your bullpen for that game so there is an inherent risk to that
Well the Braves DID have an ace, but his career is in jeopardy because he got hurt and the surgery has a bad track record. So they're forced to rely on Sale being the ace.
Florida and Brandon Sproat mentioned 🙌🙌🙌
The trend is probably going to go the opposite way; we're going to see fewer innings out of pitchers going forward, not more. Statistics show that pitcher success rates go down the more often they pitch through the batting order, even for the best aces. What the Tigers have done in August and September this year with basically ONE starter and pitcher-by-committee is going to influence a lot of managers. You can say people want recognizable star pitchers, but I think most fans would trade that for a winning team. If having pitchers pitch no more than once through the batting order results in measurably more team wins, that's what's going to happen.
not really for the best aces plus it to much strain on the bullpen and wears them out.
This is awesome. Todays pitching isnt pitching. It's throwing. Pitchers have lost pride in getting the win, but more of the strike outs and highest velocity instead of winning the game. It's sad that the metrics people who couldnt play the game have changed the way people view it. But it's also the people who are teaching or think they are teaching the game that have helped doctors make billions on Tommy John surgery. Pitching is an art and skill todays players want to throw like they are hitting max bench on the mound and thats what is causing Tommy John not the amount of pitches. If the amount of pitches were the case, why don't catchers have Tommy John more often than pitchers?
MLB Has an Ace Shortage
MLB Has an Ace Shortage
MLB Has an ace Shortage
Regardless of potential scheduling changes, six man rotations just feel inevitable. Teams are becoming obsessive with workload management for their arms and that would give them a built in form of it within their roster construction
They won’t because sending out a guy every 5th game is more valuable than having to send out your 6th best guy every 6th game
I like the extra day, but also should implement a pitch count aswell, max 111 if there already isn’t a count ( 111 is the max for Texas HS at least), it also falls to mechanics and that’s more difficult to change, but the mechanics of today put immense strain on shoulders and elbows to the point where we see the TJ surgeries. The change should be a combination of these things mechanics, pitch cap, and 6 days of rest
As a Phillies fan, I feel fortunate to have Wheeler and Nola (and Christopher Sanchez is looking really good too)
Love the idea of ace day. I'd combine it with the double pull idea. Personally so sick of the over emphasis of random relievers that have a shelf life of 4 (often sporadic) years over building a quality rotation. Roster management has become almost random with health being the primary factor, and that makes baseball boring IMO.
You mean the "double switch"??
You remove the pitcher, you lose the DH. This was the rule in the 2000's
Bobby Cox was the king.
Myth of ace staring pitcher might be real. The NLDS Game 4 was an interesting example. If you have good relievers from 1st to 9th innings one by one, the opponent team has hard time hitting them. Some small market teams should implement this bullpen day every day team composition.
sure that's cute when it works. but give me the real ace.
Would you rather have Curt Schilling in his prime for 8-9 innings or hope 7-9 relivers all have it that day?
As nice as the weekly starter idea sounds, I just don't see how it would work in practice. How exactly are you going to force teams to all use their aces on the same days? How would we get teams to all pick up an extra quality starter when there's a shortage of pitchers as it is? What would stop a team from deviating from the schedule in order to gain an advantage?
It's just not right to literally expect guys arms to be destroyed. Sports has a big problem with making that seem normal.
I know it won't happen, but I think the way that "wins" are awarded should be radically rethought. Why does a starting pitcher who goes 8 innings with zero runs allowed not get the win when a closer comes in and gives up a run in the 9th that ties the game, but the closer that blows the save gets the win if their team walks it off in the bottom of the 9th? Who REALLY is most instrumental for their team's victory should get the W
wins have always been a dumb stat. fortunately nobody cares about them anymore. but obviously you're correct they should be awarded logically.
Nolan Ryan was the last true Workhorse Pitcher.
The high velocity/ Tommy John surgery investigation is going to take at least until the end of the decade to garner any conclusive data. Personally I’ll be watching closely these five teams, Rays, Marlins, Dodgers, Astros and Orioles. The Rays have already three starters that returned this year in Springs, Rasmussen, and Baz. We might see McClanahan next year. If the Rays successfully aligned their starters healthy windows they could have an ace every day. Astros and Orioles look to be cooking a super staff for next year as well. Teams will just need more pitching overall with deeper farm systems to stagger out workloads throughout the year via a IL revolving door.
My favorite was Moose when he was with the Yankees. He had such stamina.
The first and only game I saw at Wrigley was a Hendricks start. I was very excited to see him throw
The mlb cracking down on sticky stuff made pitchers arms turn into glass cuz they gotta death grip the ball for their 100mph breaking balls lmao
Logan Webb is the only workhorse ace in the MLB I can think of
6 man rotations, and pre sticky balls like in japan. MLB owns rawlings so it should be super easy to do. Give the pitchers more grip, less pressure in the hand less injuries.
Schwellenbach…
After these last few games I can absolutely see him getting 200 plus innings. He is phenomenal
There is one massive reason the double hook will not come to Major League Baseball anytime soon, and his name is Shohei
I just watch random games based on the best pitching matchups. Former Oakland fan...
Changing the schedule won't let teams line things up nicely to play their best starters on weekend matchups or something, they'll be minor injuries enough people take a day or two off from that it'd toss it around. The idea of an extra day of rest could do something to keep starters healthy, but ultimately I don't think much.
Many injuries for pitchers are caused by other minor injuries forcing them to alter mechanics. Pushing through trying to deliver 100% effort when something feels a little wrong. The day of rest can help with that a bit, but there's not much to say it'll save everyones elbows all of a sudden.
Kids in college are getting TJ like crazy, I'd love to see stats from Japanese leagues but I doubt TJ ain't looming over their pitchers too. I just don't think the extra day will save the starter role.
Human bodies reached its limit, we're really good at teaching kids out the pen, and know that 3rd+ time through the order is a giant issue. Until we get data that shows extra velo is bad (we won't), it'll just keep headed this way.
Friday Night Lights #1 Picther vs #1 pictcher. Def would be awesome! I'm voting for the 6 man rotation this fall!
Can't be a ace if managers take you out in the 6 inning
We're going to trend back to Hendricks, Maddux etc. Guys who throw slower but are technicians and can get out there 33 or 34 starts a year.
When teams are asking pitchers to throw more fastballs to the point where their arms are turning into shredded meat. Then, yes. We do have a shortage of Aces.
Even Tommy John is afraid with Nolan Ryan 🤷🏼♂️ talking about how that guy was durable
I mean when ohtani pitched last year was the only time I'd absolutely try to watch the game otherwise I'll see the recap
It is a shame the game has gone away from as many elite pitching matchups. But it is nice when a good pitchers duel happens in todays game even tho it’s rare
Problem is the overreliance of pitch counts and managers pulling pitchers once the opposing team goes through the 3rd time in the lineup
It got the 1st no-hitter in the World Series in 68 years
Matt Harvey was reaching unforeseen heights during his dark knight era. Paul Skenes in a big market will b out of this world. But starters r going to b a thing of the past, look at what the tigers r doing right now with their rotation …
Sadly on videos like these the not so smart baseball fans come out and leave comments about “old baseball” like the game isn’t completely different than it was even 20 years ago. 🥴 Man casual baseball fans suck.
i can already see the comments…
“But but but- greg maddux and tony gwynn were the best players 🥺”
“These young players only throw fast 😡”
“Contact hitting needs to be more valued!! 😤!”
“Back in my day pitchers used to pitch 8 innings and 300 batting average was standard! 🤓☝️”
“All these kids do now is try to hit homeruns and throw 100 mph fastballs! 😒”
“What ever happened to the art of hitting the ball the other way and outsmarting the batters? 😔”
All of this is true lol - baseball is better with starting pitchers and batters putting the ball in play