Decoding What This Bet Means: Think Like a Pro
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ก.ค. 2024
- In this video, we break down the nuances of bet sizing and interpretation in poker. We discuss betting patterns and what they may reveal about your opponents' range to help you develop strategies to outmaneuver your competitors at the table. Enhance your decision-making skills by thinking like a professional poker player and join us as we explore real-game scenarios, demonstrating how to interpret various bets and their underlying intentions. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, this video offers valuable insights to refine your approach and think like a pro.
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0:00 - Intro
5:14 - Preflop
7:54 - Flop
9:17 - Turn
20:31 - Hero Decision
20:34 - Reveal
20:42 - River
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While considering your options your opponent states "That board is pretty bad for your range. Isn't it?". How would you interpret that speech?
I’d interpret that as…he’s suggesting that he’s bluffing because he knows that such a runout is bad for your range. Usually you’d say that when you’re very strong unless there’s a leveling war going on(with a known opponent). But the general rule of thumb is that when there’s little/no history with an individual, they seldom try to assign too much leveling interpretive ability to their opponents.
Unless he's a Jamie Gold or William Kasouf type, usually opponents aren't going to be overly chatty when they're weak, and most "you should fold" type comments are to induce a call.
@@1vailchris My first assumption, without any additional reads, would be that Villain is perfectly balanced in his speech play. - Self-concious/ nervous players, like Kassouf/Gould /Negreanu tend to have more often a bluff; they cannot hide their inner tension, and try to overplay it. While self-confident trash talkers like e.g. Tony G. probably mostly enjoy the idea to bait out a call: - Told ya, bro! Muahaha! - Those are obviously only tendencies; depending on the self-awareness of the player.
@@Badbentham I've yet to see anyone perfectly balanced in their speech play in high-pressure situations. Careful observation will generally show that chatty opponents have patterns which can be exploited. Here, V just sat down, so I would default to believing that V isn't likely to want to do anything to help hero find a call if he's weak, but might want to do something to help hero find a call when he's strong. Opponents who are bluffing would be nervous that an opponent might misinterpret their speech. Strong opponents don't worry about that.
I would consider V's specific statement to be a weak-hand statement, so that would also align with V being strong. He wouldn't want to say anything which could be interpreted as weakening his range if he was bluffing, so when he weakens his range, it's indicative of strength. It could also be seen as goading, which is also indicative of a strong hand.
A classic example is Dwight Pilgrim. He's very flamboyant with how he bets, and overly chatty when he's strong. But he clams up and tries to become invisible when he's weak, gently placing chips in the middle when he bets, and not saying a word while his opponents are thinking.
Unless I had prior history with the villain in terms of a leveling war aspect, I would disregard it and make whatever decision I would make if he had not said anything.
I think when he says "that board is pretty bad for your range" that means fold. Hes telling you he might be bluffing which means he wants you to call which means you should fold.
This verbal tell is pretty accurate it's kinda misdirection typical verbal tell, u said what was in my mind
Yeah I would have folded after that comment. But easy to say on the sidelines
@@amirpishvai5353 Its similar to the Phil hellumth Doug polk hand where Doug folded the straight and Phil was saying things like "I might have the blockers"
He was trying to say he could be bluffing=he wanted him to call=fold :)
This is an obvious verbal tell.
He's telling you (as you count hands) to keep his bluffs in because he's aware the board is bad for your range.
It's "weak means strong", and a speech, both occur more often when opponent is strong.
"That a dynamic that i can't quite quantify".
I didn't know Jordan Pearson played poker 😂😂😂
You can disregard what he says, but the fact that he said anything at all pushes things towards value significantly. People very rarely initiate banter when bluffing.
This is an interesting tell
The poker room is actually part of the Great Canadian Casino. Woodbine is the name of the attached racetrack and people just unofficially call the casino that since its older.
I don't understand the 2/3 sizing on flop. My gut tells me you're not supposed to go that large on such a board texture in this configuration.
Would you prefer like a 1/3 sizing on the flop?
I would think you do a lot of checking here OOP or yeah a smaller sizing like 1/3 or 1/4
Ok Bart let me ask this…at 13:00 you’re talking about calling with 77 ONLY IF you think the people behind are going to fold? I would honestly rather have multiple people in the pot if I’m in with 77 oop because you either flop a set or you don’t and if you do there’s multiple people in the hand that highly increases the odds you’re going to get paid and if you don’t hit your set than it’s an easy fold. Maybe 77 is too high a pair to think like that? I dunno but it seems to me that set mining is more beneficial with more people in the pot.
And you more often get sucked out on multi way or set over set
Set works best against one or two villains I feel like. Anymore and there is way too big a share of equity and you also don’t get called as often if you fast play it because you look super strong showing action into 4-5 players for example
I think the concern is more around somebody re-raising you than the action post flop. If you're playing fit or fold with 7s then I agree, more action is generally a good thing.
The caller starts out by saying the games are great which to me, implies that players are making a lot of mistakes. The flop texture favors the UTG caller who was incentivized to call preflop because he likely hopes some of the other passive players behind him call and thinks there's enough implied odds in a multiway pot to set mine (12-1+ or so with Hero alone excluding the pot and even if all others fold). Most of these players aren't adjusting their defense ranges UTG or in any position, so Villain can always have a 7. As it is, he's heads up with Hero knowing Hero is rather aggressive (assuming Villain is somewhat competent as the caller describes him). Villain flops an over pair with a gut shot in position. Shouldn't Hero be trying to keep the pot small, so perhaps 1/3 pot on the flop is better? I just don't understand bloating the pot out of position and forcing ourselves to play for our entire stack on the turn, then talking ourselves into a call without considering a fold. This is still relatively "low stakes", and players generally have hands when they bet or raise big. There's also a verbal tell here. Hero knows that Villain is capable of raising with bluffs and made hands but bets the turn and bloats the pot anyway? Villain isn't calling flop with anything less than QQ, 22, 77, and combo draws (including nutted flush draws) if he's competent. Hero never discusses what he might do if Villain jams when he bets turn, he didn't seem to give it any thought. Villain is never just calling turn bet unless he has a nut flush draw to back up his straight given how much Hero has committed. So what if he takes us off of a big pair? The hand starts with such a high SPR, there's simply no need to stack off or put our stack at risk. Personally, I'm never trying to get my stack in or setting up a river jam with a one pair hand like this on this board. Are we just hoping Villain is stacking off with a lower pocket pair than us? Seems unlikely.
Timestamps are a game changer!!
I played $2-5 for 5hrs there last Friday night. 25 tables were running. 10% $20 max+$1 for Badbeat.
I kept on thinking about this one, off & on, for quite some time. I just cannot get past how much strength hero has shown when this goes sideways. If I were the villain I'd be putting hero on JJ+ and some AKss AQss type hands. So what am I jamming turn with? My value range is really only sets & straights. Am I ever thinking my QQ might be good and/or I'm not gonna be able to fold it anyway so... shove? Any other pocket pair seems suicidal. If I'm semi-bluffing, then much of that is nut spades. Which also narrows hero's ranger as well. If I have the ace of spades then hero is just airball punting or has JJ+. I think I just have to fold here. I cannot put villain on any hands I like. I feel like I'm crushed or up against nut spades almost always.
I enjoyed Bart's insight on the pre-flop read where he points out that maybe villain has read the 3 flatters as passive just as hero has. I think that's the right track as he did defend a bit light. If he has 77 here [as he did] then I don't see why he cannot have 66 or 55. And with those hands in his range, then I see 87 or 76 as possible also. Does villain go as low as 65 here?
does anyone know where this card room is? My so is canadian and moving back to Toronto would love to check this poker room when I have some time. Don't see it on google maps
I would have snapped off villain here and lost my stack. He just doesn't have enough 7s for me to worry so much about that hand. To me, this looks a lot like AKs - villain isn't getting the right price to call, so jams. Precisely because villain is right that the board is bad for our range, a pseudo bluff like that will get a lot of folds, and then he has a bit of equity to improve (2 overs and the nut flush).
I was looking at some preflop charts and I noticed that UTG will RFI with 7s, but usually folds to a 3-bet. The (lone?) exception is when the 3-bet comes out of the BB as it did here - then you hang on with your 7s. I'm not sure if that chart assumes you are heads-up or not. Point being, those sevens are definitely right at the cutoff of villain's range preflop.
Drop is brutal. Huge difference. I calculated it.
I think he raises all in because most hands that get to this point that lead out are behind me. 22 -66 are all behind. AA-JJ are all behind As-Xs is behind. if they miss on the river then they check fold. and if a scare card comes out like a spade do I call a river bet, All in on the turn gaurantees spade draws pay off and 22-66 call anyway. you m,ight fold out JJ-99 but who cares they aren't calling a river bet, and if a spade comes then I'm in the box for a river call.
13:45 These guys can have anything!!
17:30 I agree
I like the villain’s turn shove because it looks like BS. You shouldn’t shove a 7 there, which any thinking player would be aware of and make a big pocket pair more likely to call. Smart.
It’s just a polarized play, nuts or nothing.
30 tables
1/3 $300
2/5 $1000
5/10
10/20 was running last time I went.
20/40 Omaha limit
These are max buy in at those limits ?
17 tables and a $20 rake, how much are they making per hour?
I can see that overtaxing would result in a home game poker rooms growing like mushrooms after rain.
@@pot_kivach160it’s like the caller said though since it’s the only room the take compared to the time and gas money spent driving to another card room makes up for it to a degree
Someone needs to read Zack Elwood's book
When he talked. You know he has it.
If villain has shown polarized sizing with both value and bluffs on past hands, this is a slam dunk snap call with a flush draw on the flop. If he has it, then so be it.
Wrong, this is a slam dunk fold. Polarized betting strategies require that you have excellent bluff catchers on textures that haven’t completed anything. The last thing you want to do is go around looking people up with a single pair when every draw is out there
@@ticenits1926 its a low straight and was 3bet pre flop villain has way more overcard bluffs than 7x in their range
Crazy-high rake is *slightly* mitigated by no tipping.
absolutely
Agreed!
11:30 logic getting a bit wobbly here... Big Broadway fold flop or definitely don't pay turn... 88 but not 77? Suited aces like A7 and A2?
20CAD translates to 14.7 USD so yes it's still high. But not as bad as it first looks. Also being in a poker desert it isn't crazy. I'm sure a lot of your private games are WAY worse.
20 is 20 . It’s not like winning us dollars and pay cnd rake.
Tough spot. I think I'd be inclined to call, until V made his "bad board for your range" comment. That's going to make me stop and think why he'd want to say anything at all after he jams, and I might find the fold.
My general rule is ignore speech play so I'd still call but would definitely hate myself afterwards
I agree that speech play seems designed to get a call. On the other hand, I was inclined to fold already. Hero has pretty much shown max strength here. He 3 bet big pre from BB [closing the action] into a UTG open & with 3 other in position callers. He fires pretty solid sizing on flop & continues on turn. Villains value has us crushed [unless we ever think this is QQ, which I don't]. And villains correctly structured bluff range has pretty solid equity AKss AQss type hands. We really sort of need to put villain on a range with lots of TT 99 JTss type hands. I don't want to seem results oriented, but we can see that hero is going to lose here to villains nut spades hands here. Making this a good call means we have to be correct more often than not & still prevail. In other words, I'm sort of adding in the chance that a spade or ace on river is going to win this for villain on some % of his bluffing range.
@@EllieBanks333I'd have to consider whether or not V is opening UTG and calling a 3B pre with a 7 or 2 in his hand or 77/22, then jamming turn when he binks the straight. I'd also think about whether or not V is good enough to realize we almost never have a straight here. V could be semi-bluffing a flush draw while trying to rep the straight. If we have a spade, I'd be more inclined to fold. Without the spade, I'd be more inclined to call, but I'm not loving it, and I expect opponents to show us the straight sometimes.
In addition to flush draws, I think the lack of straights in our range allows V to bluff with 88 or 8x, like 98s and A8s.
I played a very similar 2/5 hand Friday night. I opened to 15 from the CO with A9s, got 3B to 50 by the BTN, called. Flop is Q67. I check-call a $35 downbet. Turn is a 5, and I go for the check-raise, knowing my opponent has no straights in his range, whereas I could have one. He bets $100 into $1750 and I raise to $400. He calls (yikes), and the river is a 4, putting a one-liner to an 8 or a 3 on the board. I was planning to shut it down on any card that wasn't an 8 or a 4, so on the 4, I bet 800 into 970, which was almost his whole stack. He tanked for half a minute, finally said, "I know you have a straight", before flicking in the call with QQ, for top set.
I don't see much difference between calling here with KK and my V calling with AA/KK/QQ/AQ. Either our opponent has a straight or he doesn't. The real difference is that UTG shouldn't have as many straights here as I'll have in CO.
@@qazzaqstanI don't think it's good to ignore speech play, unless the V is very skilled at it. Opponents will give away a lot of info with their table talk.
_"bad board for your range"_ I don't see why that statement has a bearing in my decision making at all? That comment is a poker fundamental fact, and whether V said it or not does not change the fact.
From my experience even online when they say something or throw something at you online like a poop 💩 emoji. They have it. If he was bluffing he won’t say a word.
19:32 Well then, you cry inside because you got outdrawn and you fold. Human nature is to go into a bunker of silence after bluffing. Virtually no one at small stakes is making a huge bluff then tricking you with reverse tells.
Surprised Bart didn't read it the same way; "Beware the speech," is the single most reliable tell at these stakes imo.
Great call, great caller, I agree with everything he said and all his bet sizings. Opponent can have hands like 98ss as well. This feels like a solid call.
All suited connectors that aren’t Broadway should be folded to a 3bet. The only time you wanna play hands like this would be in a 4bet pot since that will allow you to play your range in a nutted fashion.
@@ticenits192610-9S & 8-9S are easy 3 bet calls in position or mix very low frequency 4 bets
If you make the drive, be sure to stop at the NY casinos Turning Stone in Verona and Del Lago in Waterloo. Low stakes but fun and soft games.
$20 rake is criminal
What the F%$# is that ghost creep voice at 21:53???
I wouldn't play with that rake.
Did he give it some thught abut his utes on the river eh
10% up to $20?!..dead game.
Imagine thinking you can beat that for more than a buck or two an hour after rake and dwaler toke at 1/3. So many players are clueless about how much of a ripoff these types of rake structures are
That rake is horrible.
$20 rake is better
Go to the hardware store then. 😂
Always wanted to make that pun. I agree actually
This is definitely a bad call on 3/ nl
Wowwwwwww $20 😂😂😂
The real issue here was poor Bet sizing. Good players don’t bet large on wet boards, you only get action from high equity hands and run the risk of getting bluffed off if they choose to ship it on a draw.
I wouldn't consider 77 a high equity hand on that flop, needing a 4 or 7 (6 outs) to likely win and likely facing another big bet if V doesn't hit the turn.
@@skelthouser2730 You're being results oriented. Most players wont chase a gutshot here, but they WILL have big draws at minimum. Hero is just blasting off into a highly coordinated board texture that rarely gets called by dominated hands like 99 for example.
...and "the pro decode" said: V has no 77.
obvious fold an old geezer with obvious kk's or aa's inflating the pot like crazy on flop and turn lol who the fuck would bluff into that shit. Pretty easy for him to have a 77s
@fdgfg764 right. Stepping into shoes of V is easy to see that he knows H has a high Pocket pair. Definitely, V hammering is not a bluff. Fold, and never look back.
That rake is disgusting and nobody should play there. There is a smaller house edge on blackjack, for Gods sake.
Way smaller lmao. Blackjack is half a percent. This is 10%
I will quit poker before I am playing in a $20 rake game
Rake this high is only playable at 10/25 or higher, typically found in home games. You need players willing to dump 10-20k at which point the rake becomes inconsequential
This Caller is a fish betting turn calling raise
20.00 rake. Bart tell them to run!