Tesla will become the most profitable car company in just 2 years 🤯🤯
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 มี.ค. 2022
- Tesla is about ramp up to extreme, but even conservatively they will probably be the most profitable car manufacturer in the world in only 2 years !!!
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Absolutely right. Around $5,000 stock price in 2025 (before 2022 split).
After 2022 split.
Love the ending with Optimus 😀
What Tesla has accomplished is unreal. The failings of numerous EV startups is a testament to this.
I like your Tesla Bear case Lars. Can you do a bull case for the next videos :)
I like the way you present the charts. So clear and nice
50% sounds crazy but it is actually way too conservative. With 87% growth in 2021, possibly 90% for 2022 and probably 90% in 2023 it is difficult to see how Tesla could not reach $55billion net profit in 2025. It is not just the growth but the compound effect of increased manufacturing efficiency over that period. It could be that Tesla reaches a gross margin of 40% per vehicle by 2025 in which case $55bn net profit is also way too conservative.
Hopefully they can make up for Shanghai losses this year
@@NickPeitsch Have you checked your eyesight for myopia?
With two new factories... no problem
Not to mentioned the other products than cars alone
Lars, love the analytical/numerical approach - much better and more enjoyable than other Tesla fan sites that just regurgitate talking points and give fluffy opinion.
You and “Solving the Money Problem” are about the only places I go for info and updates on Tesla.
Thanks, and keep up the great work!
Cheers!
THANKS LARS…IMHHO YOU ARE BEING WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE 😉
Time will tell…we will just have to wait and see 👀😍😍😍
Hello Lars, thank you for your outstanding channel. For your information, we have received the FSD in Canada this past week and it is amazing. Cheers!
Great comparison, thanks for gathering all the info and making a comprehensive video about it. Just one detail, @8:25 you went from q4 2020 to total of 2021. Q4 was 2,3 billion so it still was a great 3x improvement.
42 years of experience and he knows feck all. 😂
Large scale technology disruption in the car industry didn't happen during his 42 years. It was not part of his experience, he made the mistake of thinking he'd seen it all.
The top three in profitability now are: Mercedes, Tesla, & BMW.
Germany must be happy to have that Giga factory. Elon made a good move there, choosing a German site.
2:48 You saying: in 20, 20FUN 😂🤣😂
Great video again!!
So glad I invested.
Love the Teslap!!!
also, these OEMs are sharing the pie with Tesla, the bigger Tesla's piece the smaller pieces the OEMs have to share.
The most important metric is the profit per unit sold
If TESLA stock price gose up to 10x from today in 2026, I will be able to retire but still holding it until 2032 at least.
Amen to that.... If Tesla 10x just from EVs imagine whats going to happen with RoboTaxi, Insurance, Solar, Energy Storage, HVAC, Cyber truck and Semi.... Tesla is going to make 7 Figure, 8 Figure, 9 Figure Millionaires.... My analysis shows I could potentially be a Billionaire in 16 years if Tesla continues on this growth path...
@@xordoom8467 And Optimus 👤.
Me too
@@xordoom8467 how much do you think it will be priced in 16 years from today?
Extremly good video! 👍Congrats and keep the good work up!
The most profitable in any sector in 6 years.
Mange tak, det er fin!
Mind-blowing!
The Tesla channel has a great new video of GigaBerlin.
4:00 This is a truer picture‼
So good I watched twice.
良い動画ですね💮
Thank you for your update.
Sounds good 🤙🏾
oke, i will buy more tesla stock. Thanks for this great information.
Yes! Fantastic video. Awesome take, and so many statistics I hadn't been aware of! Love it! 🚀
Good stuff, Lars!
Great video
2:12 ah the good old Protis
Another great video Lars! Your numbers are rightly conservative: it will be fun to see Tesla exceed them and crush legacy auto by 2026. Keep up the good work!
Another great video thanks Lars, big thumbs up from downunder 🇦🇺
Bob Lutz 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Great work Lars!! Very informative and exciting!!
Loved your spoof on the "napkin math", great video Lars, thanks for your dedication to the channel!
Thank you for this video Lars … I have a finance background and this video has opened my eyes to the enormous opportunity that Tesla has. What blew me away is the profit per vehicle … already equivalent to Mercedes Benz and BMW. And this profit/vehicle is growing and will be industry leading in 2022. I’m now looking for the right time to buy into Tesla stock. Thanks for opening my eyes!
Lars the problem with net profit, it's that you are disregarding debt. If you owe a lot more that what you make and to transition to EV , Toyota, as an example, will have to borrow again, in Japan and the US. That alone really is not reflecting how profitable you are. OEM are not start-ups, they are well established companies that survive on government money because they employ a large workforce.
They are welfare companies basically. They are not held accountable and the top people make millions when they are basically running a bad business.
The most profitable company in the world.
You the man after Elon of course!
This makes the current share price of $740 an excellent entry point.
It’s about to get messy up in here
I agree completely! Even
-using your conservative estimates,
-discounting FSD,
-discounting energy,
-discounting the dealerships and fines Tesla does not have to deal with, and
-discounting the Optima robot
Tesla is still an excellent investment and perhaps the best investment ever.
Yes! I was born ready!
This is an extremely good analysis of Tesla and the auto industry. Thank you
WOW, THIS IS EXCEPTIONALLY EDITED!!!;)
You should model this more realistic with operating cost and gross margins, operating leverage is your best friend with Tesla
10x is waaaay too low for Tesla with 10 m units
With 5.3m units, I have 77.9B (30% margin)gross profit and 10.6B overhead
That would lead to 67.2B operating income and with some conservative PE of 50, we’re at 3k stock price
Our factory here in Reno is retooling to ramp up Megapac and Powerwall to try and meet demand.
Lars - excellent video and analysis!!! Your humble opinion and back-of-the-napkin math are totally spot on - we totally agree and will enjoy watching our significant $TSLA position grow and grow and grow over the next 10 years and beyond ... :)
Tesla's Texas factory will reach full production in two years. The associated Cell factory, this year. The Chi na factory is doubling production this year. It currently uses half its area. The German factory too has Cell and further capacity available. Several more factories are planed for the next few years.
One of your best videos Lars, well done sir!
Love this company Tesla!
Good ol` Bob Klutz
Problem with people like Bob Lutz is that they can’t even fathom thinking from first principles. They can’t wrap their heads around it. All they’ve ever known is reasoning by analogy. Such people will never understand Musk and his companies and will continue to underestimate them.
3.5-4.5 million cars in 2023. And increased profit per car, due to current price increases.
Easily most profitable car company in the world, number 4 by revenue in 2023.
That seems way too high. I estimate 2.8 - 3.0.
Yep ! 😎
I like ur year by year mathematics.
Supply chain would not be able to support this growth. Batteries, chips etc. Will limit the growth. My Estimation for 2022 is 1.58 million cars. Q1 310 q2 370 q3 420 q4 480
Good video. But how do you come up with 1.8m deliveries for 2022? That looks like quite ambitious and has a major impact on your analysis if same growth rates are used (3m cars delivered in 2024) compared the 1.4m which is the current outlook. Don’t get me wrong, I am long Tesla and it’s one of my biggest positions now, but just curious to hear your logic.
Well, the run rate we have from Shanghai shows they alone can do over 800,000 and are still ramping up. Fremont can do about 500,000 maybe more, and Berlin if ramp is going to look like model Y looked in Shanghai they will probably do 100,000. And Texas maybe 150,000 because they don't need to change batteries on the way as Berlin will need to do. And I believe they will continue to ramp up production in both Fremont and Shanghai. So optimistic yes, but 1,4 in 2024 in not just pessimistic it's unrealistic 😉
The Kona electric is sooo good and cheap you all will love it!
$TSLA is the most valuable security in the history of the Market. The world doesn’t know it now but they soon will.
It is a great video Lars,thank you.
A lot of people don’t know that Tesla Inc. main future revenue will come from Robotaxi.
Just imagine, you don’t need to own vehicles 🚗.
All you need is application of Robotaxi on the smartphone.
You dial in, and the Robotaxi EV is in front of your door.
It is possible, that the Semi-Truck could use same application for delivery 🚚 goods?
One thing is for sure, Elon is trying to make our Earth 🌎 a better place to live, I think 🤔?
Next week , opening of Terafactory in Texas?
It appears, that Elon is not slowing down, isn’t he?
Awesome information! Thanks for doing this one
Does the $6000 profit per vehicle include the $10,000 to $12,000 FSD package? I just looked, and the take rate went from 40% in 2019 to about 11% now. That profit would add over $1000 per vehicle, averaged over total sales.
The question then becomes: will, or when will, FSD succeed, and what will that do to the price and take rate?
I would say not biggest CAR company but biggest company at all
what i'd like to know, what would tesla do with sooooo much profit? do you think they would give the shareholders a massive dividend percentage? or just make their cars much much cheaper and have a smaller margin? (im hoping for the dividend lol)
Awesome! Video Lars!, thank you! 😊
Be nice is a way of life!
You're a bloody legend Lars
You keep saying that Elon wants to build 10 more gigafactories, however he said that would be the "best case sanario." There's an important difference in that.
One aspect that may also affect the figures is the migration away from ICE cars. Will the other OEMs make enough EVs to cover their loss of revenue from ICE cars over the 2-4 years. Each car Tesla sells is probably one less ICE car
No,I don't think they will. It'll take a few years for them to make any profit from their ice cars, if ever.
@@myxalplyx
I assume you mean "make any profit from their "EV" cars," as that is their biggest problem while they try and ramp up production.
@@GoCoyote do you know how much it cost them to make? And how much they sell for?
@@thenewage9723
On average in 2021, Tesla made about about 30% gross profit margin on each car sold, Ford about -3% gross profit on each car sold, GM numbers are difficult to come by, as I could not find information that separated out their automotive revenue from their financial services revenue. Given that GM claimed similar profit margins to Ford, I would conclude that like Ford, GM most likely makes money on some models and loses on others, but most likely loses money on their vehicle sales overall.
All of the legacy companies have said that they plan/hope to make the same profit margins as their ICE vehicles on their EV's by the middle to end of this decade (2025-2030). In the case of Ford, that is not saying much. Tesla has a huge lead, and there is no telling when other US auto manufacturers will make EV's profitably. Then there is the reality of Ford and GM's enormous debt that they still need to pay back. Not an enviable situation to be in, unless you are Tesla.
@@GoCoyote amazing ! It’s crazy because Imma put every single one of my dollars in Tesla. I remember back in 2019 the EV sector accounted for something like 2.6% of all vehicles sold. Imagine 2029 I bet car market for EV’s sold will probly be closer to 40% and Tesla’s already past trillion dollar company
Lutz you old fool💯
Nobody seems to talk about the semi truck. When that starts rolling out it’s going to change everything. Just in hauling their own vehicles it’ll be a game changer. I see the haulers every time I get on I-5 in southern Oregon, it went from hardly seeing them to seeing at least 1 every time. Always an unmarked semi, 10 cars on the trailer.
Semis won't be practical for another 5 years
Net protis? LOL.
It would be interresting to see this comparision again in two years.
Big difference in 10x in profits than stock price.
Lars great video !!! Do you think Volvo will get their metallurgy right for their castings ? It seemed pretty complicated to get the right temperature, volume and liquidity to make each casting without any problems ?
Actually, once someone figures it out, its not that rough to copy. A bomb calorimeter will tell you the composition, The crystallography from there is mainly dictated by the colling rate and preparation (annealing) etc.
There is no post casting preparation (they figured out how to eliminate that step)
There is no real mystery in rate of cooldown (Idra will know that or trial and error).
This is not a forged part where the processes are complicated. Its a casting, so knowing the element proportions and cool rate and injection speed, you're there.
Idra has the rest.
Surprised they All aren't doing this. Chinese auto makers are. Where is US/Europe/Japan?
@@avgjoe5969 Most car companies don't think they have to or need too. Ford has to split the company just to get some focus and talent into the company. Legacy is domed.
@@avgjoe5969 legacy auto would have to reconfigure most of their factories to include casting. Not easy to do. Who knows how long they would have to shut down to make the changes too
A spectrometer will give accurate amounts and materials in Tesla's finished casting. The proper batching and admixtures at certain temperatures and times is the unknown. The drone footage from a recent inplant tour of Gigaberlin may show a worker stirring in alloys in the IDRA crucible or gathering a sample for batch quality. Tesla will keep their secret recipe of 14 "herbs and spices" for an indefinite period before being copied or surpassed.
Be Nice 👍 😃
Did your graphics say “net protis” ?? Is that a translation issue? 2min, 5sec in.
At what point will people tire of driving the same car as their neighbors? Not an easy question, and one I certainly can not answer, but the multi-year projections depend on it. If Tesla does succeed in getting everyone on-board with, basically, just two cars (S/X and 3/Y), a pickup truck, and an econo-box, that may be the largest contribution to cultural change.
It was not an issue for Ford with their Model T.
@@jcjensenllc I am a big believer in history, but Ford’s almost-monopoly ended and the Depression almost destroyed the company. Nothing is guaranteed.
@@johntrotter8678 almost ended many companies but that and its almost-monopoly is not not relevant to your point about consumers getting tired of limited choice. When Tesla achives their goal of Transportation as a Service, the outer styling of cars won't matter. A car will be a means to an end - getting one from point A to point B, not a status symbol or vanity badge.
If eventually (say 10/15 years out) the market becomes saturated with enough teslas with a perfected level 5 fsd, how many cars will even need to be sold?
Most people will trade the value and savings for vanity
Lars is betting on FY22 numbers being:
1.85 million vehicles
11 billion in net profit
93 billion in revenue
Curious to see how well this ages
Agree with you despite being a tesla bull. Revenue and deliveries are quite aggressive. He does not really consider scaling and production efficiency impacy
I don’t think Tesla will deliver 1.85M cars this year due to supply chain issues and China lockdown. May be closer to 1.5M. However the profit per car is likely to be far higher than presented in your numbers. Q1 net profit was $3.3B … conservatively annualised that’s $13B net profit
Robert was looking at it from his own angle and sure GM & Ford won’t make any money on any of their EV:s regardless of price 🤣😂
exactly 🤣🤣🤣
Lutz? Klutz more like! 🤣
As all but a few Chinese companies struggle to ramp up production, Tesla is SURE to zoom to the top. VW is trying hard, but far behind. Toyota is barely trying. Hyundai/Kia are serious, and may be players, as may Volvo/Polestar. But Tesla LOOMS over those others, like an NBA team over a bunch of junior high kids. Nio will fizzle.
Lars, my 'BACK OF NAPKIN' about 10 days ago shows Tesla hit the run rate of 20 Million in mid 2028!
Either way, you're ON THE MONEY HONEY!!!!!!!🍯
Lars in the future...can you talk about the Legacy
autos, not just as the "Big Boys," but the "Big boys and Girls," as a shout out to Mary Barra!!! just sayin 🙂
More like Klutz!!
Robert Lutz is such a maroon!
👆Hi mate, Thanks for watching Elon musk have something to share with you hit him up👆👆
Does anyone remember Blackberry??? They were the in thing until they were not !!! Same goes for Texas Instruments, and many many more!!!
While there will be many factors effecting this growth, one major factor is that for every vehicle Tesla sells, there is one less ICE vehicle produced and sold by legacy manufactures. It would make sense to subtract Tesla's yearly production from legacy manufacturers production, although the amount per brand will vary. I suspect that high end brands like Mercedes and BMW will be hit the hardest first, along with performance models of the other brands. The amount of profit per vehicle for legacy brands will also fall as production volumes fall. This is known as the spiral of death in the business world.
Turning on the self driving capabilities will bring in 8-10,000 dollars per car with no production cost.
Dude great job so good to know a bunch of gems in here ! I did not know Toyota profit per unit was so low.
Tesla to the moon.
Great video and as a investor I hope you are right and with a realistic outlook the numbers look even better. 😉
I am very happy that tesla is now making profits and hopefully without the carbon credits, because iam am seriously thinking of buying a tesla model 3 and love what tesla has achieved. 👍
They use the credits as a financial tool just like any company would. The large OEMs won’t need to buy carbon credits as they sell EVs but it will be seen how much they actually loose in the transition.
As impressive as this is it doesn't justify Tesla's valuation, neither VW, Toyota nor Mercedes have a valuation anywhere near Tesla. The market is pricing in other things which it believes lies in Tesla's future, and perhaps it is right to do so.
Wow! Just Wow! Great video thanks.
How much is ten times???
The small Swiss guy (Bob Lutz) is still thinking like he did when he came to the states
$6000 profit per car will look tiny by 2025 with all the profits coming from energy and AI. So stock price will be nuts!
I know it's not quite ready yet, and it's difficult to predict how quickly regulatory approval will happen, especially in different countries, but FSD will eventually enable RoboTaxi and then it will no longer make sense for Tesla to sell cars because the profit for each vehicle will jump from $6,000 one time to $30,000 every year, i.e. $300,000 over the 10 year lifespan of the vehicle.
Let's say this can happen in 2025. By then the production rate will be at least 5 mill/year for a potential profit of 150 Billion the first year just from the taxi business. Anybody want to calculate the potential compound profit 2025-2030?
5+7+11+16+24=63,000,000 * $30,000 = $2T profit in the year 2030 just from the Tesla Network, $5T compounded profit.
How can Tesla even spend that much money?
What does the share price look like at that stage in the game?
They have so many dreams in the pipeline, I'm sure they will find a way 😂. And if they can't dream of how to spend it, how about healthy dividends?
Really good comment👍
Over 10 yrs you have to discount the earnings because of time value of money, so that $300k is more like $200k in net present value. Still incredible earnings though!
Another spanner in the calculations, the legacy OEMs will lower production , accelerating the takeover.