Fouling in Blood Bowl 2020 - Theory Thursday (Bonehead Podcast)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.ค. 2024
- It’s Theory Thursday - where we look at an aspect of Blood bowl in detail!
Whether it’s tactics, stats or hypotheses, we’re just trying to get better at Blood Bowl!
Patreon Link: / boneheadpodcast
#BloodBowl #BloodBowl2020 #GamesWorkshop
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Now remember to foul any player whose name starts with a W: werewolves, war dancers, witches gutter wunners and finally; whoever else is on the ground.
That's some ironclad logic right there- I approve.
This is why I visit The Internet: to find new and inspiring ideas for my life.
Another strategy with fouling is, towards the end of the game and you want to protect your best players, you can foul with them and if they get sent off then they can't be injured.
E. G. You are 2-0 up, with 3 turns to go, with Wood Elves vs Chaos, the game is probably decided, you can foul with your Wardancers. If you get sent off then your spiteful opponent won't be able to injury them back! 😁
Remember; if you get your player sent of and just stunning the wardancer it's always a win because stun means you can foul again next turn!
I'm a math teacher. This is the best video you have ever made!
Haha thanks ATMonkey!!
Absolutely love this sort of video! You could also apply the poker concept of "pot odds" to it - sometimes the amount you lose is so small compare to the amount you could win, mathematically you should take the risk even if you're more likely to lose (or in bloodbowl terms, a snotling should always foul a woodelf)
A few early fouls can add a psychological element too. If your opponent sees you fouling anything that hits the floor, they will think twice about not rerolling both downs, accepting wrestle as a good result, or using the new Piling On. Was always an accepted thing in the old rules that if you use Claw POMB, expect that player to get stamped on in return.
If that's how you play in as league, if I ever play you it would be all about killing your team. No exceptions
@@ericpaulsen8969 Not about scoring?
Don't forget about Arguing the Call. On an AV 7+ player, ATC drops the chance of you being sent off from 26.4% to 22%, making it less likely than them being KOed or better. And with Dirty Player (+1) in the mix, something similar happens for AV 9+.
and goblin/underworld teams can reroll 1s on argue the call, AND half price bribes! You really should be fouling every single turn with them
My gods.... I now MUST get Dirty Player and Sneaky Git on my gobbo chainsaws!
As a snot and gobbo player I approve this video.
‘Theory Thursday’! Awesome addition to the Bonehead schedule. I’m loving watching your channel grow and grow...it’s HUGELY well deserved guys.
21:52 I think either the numbers must be wrong here, or I misunderstood what is being measured.
I thought the number was the percentage chance that a foul will cause a knockout or better.
If Dirty Player was just +1 on the armor roll, then the Dirty Player chance of removing a player at AV (n+1) would be exactly the same as the normal chance at AV (n).
But DP isn't just that. It's that, *and* if you make the armor roll without needing the +1 you get +1 on the injury roll.
Thus the Dirty Player chance at AV (n+1) must always be higher than the normal chance at AV (n).
Probably my favourite video of the whole channel! thaks
This is my favourite video. I love the numbers and have watched 3 times. More of these please! As an addition to this analysis its interesting to look at the outcomes for when armour is broken separately to when it isn't.
The real solution to this conundrum is just play halflings and foul every single turn.
I love these kind of deep dives
Very interesting, great to see some numbers about fouling. Certainly food for thought.
I love how it's all about fouling the wardancer xD
Love it! Thanks for all the data crunching :)
Thanks Louis! :D It was my pleasure haha
Loved the video, keep them coming.
Nice video Ben!
I really like this kind of content. Some number crunching.
I have not checked all the numbers but I think that we can improve the accuracy of the probabilities on fouls with DP and also chance to get caught by the Referee, make sure to remove double sent off: which is different for even rolls and odd rolls, DP also impacts this because it can make an even roll break armor. So in that case it will increase the chances for removal without increasing sent offs.
But yeah, those differences are smaller compared to what you already calculated.
Fouling is always worth the gamble, ask any Fling Coach anywhere at any time.
I'll come back to this video for reference later thanks. I did watch it all and Its a little confusing, but from what I gather, my snotlings are gonna foul every turn if possible.
Great look at fouls. the number heavy was ok. good to have the break down and work out that sweet spot.
Love the in-depth analysis; this will be really helpful in future games (after informing my opponent on basic stunty tactics).
I would have liked to also see the critical E/V's for Sneaky Git and/or Dirty Player. It's easy enough to copy the other end of the table (KO+ for SG, Sent Off for DP) for yourself, but I would have liked to see in the video at which AV these have roughly 50-50 E/V.
Fun fact, one of my games VS Wood Elves during the last World Cup, was decided by fouling.
I played Necromantic vs Wood Elves and my strategy Vs Elves wasn't on point during the first half, which enabled them to successfully Elf Stall and deny me any real removals.
So second half started and the stacked elf screen meant that steady progress would be impossible without removal.
Luckily the Tree took root and I could cage up on one side.
Blitzing one player down, moving up and fouling with 2 assists. Which allowed me to remove an elf almost each turn.
Once I had the numbers, it's just not a real risk anymore because I didn't need more zombies to protect my ball, but I needed the removal to be able to get the 1-1 draw in.
So basically it is not only about the odds. When playing against a good coach with an agility team, you need to take risks in order to get some removal.
First half, you want to foul as early as possible on the drive, to benefit from the removal. Refrain from fouling when nearing the end of a drive as KO players can swiftly return. Yet the premium targets should always be set up for a good fouling. Removing a key player can simply change the course of the game. Especially Blodge pieces, since it might be the only chance you get to fouls them.
Great video, love the numbers really clear. I have to start fouling with the pump wagon which indeed have dirty player 😉
I appreciate this broadcast.
30 min about fouling. Finally quality info on TH-cam ;P
Edit, after viewing, I don't find it number heavy, but I work in stem so maybe no the best to ask
Thank you for this, I think it is one of the best videos you've made, certainly very useful even if it's math heavy.
Hey Dean! Thanks, that's awesome to hear :D Let me know if there's any other BB areas you think it would be worth exploring!
Enjoyed the video. I think I good way to present information like this is to start with the headline rule of thumb statistic (7+ foul roll against player with double tv ) then work backwards through the figures
Ben, that's great feedback! Thank you! :D
I think you're right!
After watching this, Lord Borak is even more terrifying. Fouls a human lineman as if they are av7 without needing an assist, and can't get sent off to break the armor. He's gonna be a beast in my CD tournament team
Fielding my Dwarf team I foul if the person on the floor can reach my ball carrier on their next turn. The only other time I foul is if my opponent is being salty or if I'm well on my way to a pitch clear. :)
I just rewatched the video after embracing the way of fouling. It puts you in a better position if you take the juicy shots :) I didn't have the chance to use sneaky git, but dirty player is a powerful ability (specially after having the second one in the team, as you will cover much better the field).
The most benefitial effect is that makes your opponent think twice whether stall some turns before scoring or not.
Good stuff man, numbers were good. Just missing what the combo of dirty player and sneaky git look like together for even more crazy :-p
I have always stuck the boot in without mathematical consideration. I will now be sticking the boot in with 200 IQ plays 👻
Nice one Ben. Black Gobbo would approve :)
My favourite subject in all BB! YAY Zombie Army
Does Guard asist with fouling armor breaks?
Thank you
I think they should modify dirty player to give plus 9 to armour and injury and allow you to foul every player standing up on both teams before kickoff, including players who aren't even playing as well as adding an extra 90 touchdowns to the fouling player.
As a consequence, give a minis 1 score to your friends list
Intresting video
Public enemy no1 -> Wardancers
all my calculated advantages are going to be publicly known :(. only suggestion i would make is show the difference in values so viewers don't need to do math thus defeating much of the point of doing the odds for them. the idea is to let them identify easier when factoring diminishing returns instead of just putting it in a monologue only.
In a league if I know your next opponent has a better WLD record i won't turn 16 foul. But if your next opponent has a worse WLD record im absolutely going to take the opportunity to make your next game harder to influence your overall league placement.
Sorry to be a stat nerd, but some of your calculated stats are wrong - the chances for being sent off are too high as you have double-counted some of the sent off possibilities. Otherwise a really good episode!
So I debate I had with my friend last night: humans vs halfings, one treeman stunned along with two halfings. Friend can blitz and get two die block on other treeman then foul with lineman with four assists in armour removal. Is it worth it? I tried explaining that yes it was he said no. Was it worth the risk to blitz then foul in second half of the game with him already up 2-1? FYI he didn't blitz/foul and the game ended in a 2-2 draw.
It's 16.2% chance of removal (thick skull) against 20.64% of send off
But it's 50k against 120k so it's hard to tell : depends on the turn, the number of removals , the score ...
Getting both Trees down is crucial and putting the boot in, is a good way to delay the flinging of 'flings at least for another turn.
Without the trees, you can now more easily target the right' flings.
I would made the blitz, unless the Tree had block and you don't.
@@JorisVDC yeah there were four turns left and he failed to pick up the ball twice which let me fling my catcher down field and sneak past his thrower and make a dodge w/ 2 GFI for the tie
Renegade goblin with 2 heads, sneaky git and claw... 🤔🤔
I think the only time I’ve ever been angry at a foul was when a Streamer fouled on turn 16 instead of going for a vanity pass in BB2. There is next to no chance you will meet them again and you passed up a shot at 1SP to do that?
It's not cheating if the ref accepts the bribe!
Greta video
Thanks CoachMike!!
always foul on the alter turns of a league. extra foul if your losing. kill there best guys. Foul there skilled guys specifically. make them weaker into there next few games, especially if there clsoe to you on elague points. thats jsut good sense