Stopped at 16:00 As played against what you have described, it is a call. She will have KhJh, or Kh8h here a good portion of the time, not to mention even lower flushes. Yes, sometimes she will have a weird Boat, but you can't fold the Nut Flush here. Edit. Remember, she has already stacked off a number of times at the table. They is key here.
That's a call 100% of the time on that board. Such a disconnected board making a full house so unlikely. Not like it's a Q 10 9 9 8 board or something that a full house is much more possible. And against that player and at TCH where everyone bluffs off their stack constantly. Ouch on this fold
This is out there but what if it was a hand like K5 Off with K of hearts? Shes been stacked multiple times this session, so i can see her over valuing trips on the turn and flush on the river. This would explain the slow play/donk activity. Also, a 5 way flop on a single raised preflop... the game was probably pretty wide
It's not crazy. But Kh5x is very wide/loose - she limp-flats pre from UTG, and flats the BTN's flop bet, with 3 more opponents still left to act behind her, including the pre-flop raiser, who could be 3B'ing the flop? If she's playing that insanely wide, I don't see how we can ever fold here.
I feel like we need to give more credence to when people have a good hand on the turn that gets severely downgraded on the river. They don’t know what to do and jam anyways.
I think they think that the fourth flush card makes it less likely we also have a flush. They never believe they got flush over flushed when they have the K.
@@1vailchris yeah, her bet on the turn seems designed to push out the ace of hearts and there's just a lot of question marks of if she really plays a flopped set or even two pair the way she's described. do quad 5s ever take this line? does any full house take this line when there's always either 55 or a better full house available? i think a good portion of the time she has the king of hearts with either another heart or possibly pocket kings. it may have been wrong, but i really wish hero called. i think her not revealing her hand suggests that she was beat and was embarrassed about it as i think intentional bluffs or better hands would tell hero.
@@wfchannel4673 For all the complaints we see when we don't get a reveal of V's hand, I think not knowing creates good discussion, and helps us exercise our mental muscles. To respond to your points... 1. With bad players, anything is possible. This could be a worse flush, a boat, quads, or an insanely over-played trip 5's. 2. That said, and since we don't know, all we can do is try to think about it logically. Caller said she played passively. She slow-played AA pre, and played it passively post-flop in another hand. Yet the caller is here in the comments, and revealed that she played A7 aggressively on a 773 flop, in one of the big pots she lost (to 33). While many in the comments apparently struggle trying to reconcile her passive play with AA with her aggression here, I look at that A7 hand as an example of how she plays a strong hand on the flop. Since she fast-played top trips in that A7 hand, I think she'd fast-play a flopped set or 2P here, leading me to believe that the 5h on the turn either made her a worse flush, or trip 5's, rather than a boat or quad 5's. 3. Even without the knowledge of how she played AA pre or trip 7's post, we can just look at her line here, taking into account that she was stuck two buy-ins, and playing a lot of pots. Presumably, she was playing a lot of pots in the hopes of making a monster hand she could take to war. There again, I'd think she'd lean towards fast-playing 2P or a set on this wet board, especially since there were still 3 more opponents left to act behind her when she called the BTN's flop bet, including hero, who was the pre-flop raiser. Her flop call incentivizes the other 3 players in the hand to call behind her, in a spot where she's not going to love very many turns, playing OOP, potentially against 4 opponents. 4. Most players who trap by slow-playing big hands will either spring the trap by check-raising on the flop, or wait until the river when they flop or turn a monster, so they don't scare opponents away by making a huge bet. If she was trapping with a set or 2P on the flop, the 5h on the turn is the perfect card to check if it makes her a boat or quads. With the PFR (hero) and the BTN still in the hand, and the BTN having the betting lead, there's a good chance one or the other turned a flush. She wouldn't want to do anything to scare away any weaker made hands, or hands that still had a chance to improve. Her turn bet is obviously or value, probably because she called flop with 5x and made trips, or called with a flush draw that got there, both hands that would want to get folds from better flush draws. If she had KK with the Kh, I think she may have check-raised flop, but if not, she probably wouldn't have donk-led turn, before she actually made her flush. Whatever she did after hero folded, that info wasn't available to hero when he made his decision. But looking at the reasoning above, I think we have to call in hero's spot, because his hand is so under-repped, when he checks-back flop and flat calls turn. It's unlikely he'd raise pre with Q5/95, and unlikely he'd check back QQ/99/55 on the flop, in a six-way pot, with two players left to act behind him, and if he did, he probably wouldn't just flat call the BTN's flop bet after she calls from UTG. So he doesn't have many boats here. The nut flush is really the top of his range. Meanwhile, she probably would have check-raised flop with 2P or a set, so her only boats are two combos of 52 suited - bottom pair, no kicker, with no flush draw on the flop. Maybe she limped-flatted pre with 52s, and maybe she called flop with 52s, and maybe she donk-led turn, but it's just 2 combos, and it's questionable whether or not she'd donk-lead the turn into two players, when either could have turned a flush, and the BTN could have her crushed with 99/95/Q5. Once he folds, she doesn't show, so that tells us a little more. I think if she had 55, she'd have shown, because everyone likes showing that they made quads. If she had QQ/99/95/Q5, she probably would have shown, to improve her damaged table image, and show everyone that she's not getting her money in bad, so they don't try to push her around by bluffing her too often. Once she jams, and hero reveals what he's folding, she probably realizes she over-played a worse hand in a situation where it should have been obvious she was beat. Even if she had 52, her flop call is terrible, her turn donk was terrible, and her river shove isn't great, since she made him fold the top of his range. Showing 52 isn't going to improve her image much at all. She really doesn't have any true "bluffs" to show as a brag. All she has are over-plays, and showing them isn't going to do anything for her. Based on all we know, I think she had to have turned a worse flush, turned and over-played trip 5's, or gotten a miracle river card with 52.
Thanks Bart. It's good to get confirmation that nitty folds are good and we still learn from the hand regardless of what our opponent has. We won't always get that information from a tournament or live play anyway.
After analysis - I would fold river to this line (to this opponent). I am confident that this player type has a boat. Also the anecdote that she limped with aces suggests she is not often bluff happy. Feels like 99, 95, Q5, or even QQ (given that she limps with premiums). The 4th heart on the river makes it even more of a fold in my opinion: She would check all flushes.
Don’t sympathize with the blockheads who desperately need a reveal at the end Bart 👌🏻 I think she absolutely had it here, most players would love to show a bluff If they got someone to fold the nut flush. They’d also be reluctant to show the table how they made minimum value vs the nut flush. It sounds like she had quads to me with the ridiculous turn bet.
Villain as described has flush at least 50% of the time. What a terrible fold. Bart makes a big blunder assuming this woman's bet sizing correlates to absolute hand strength when it's been explained she will play any suited cards. It's very obvious that hero does not have a full house, and players who play any suited cards do not play them to fold 2nd nut flushes.
When truly novice recreational players are oop, their play becomes less predictable. Interesting twist in this hand. After the hand, her not telling what she had leans strongly toward a boat.
Sometimes we are going to get stacked and have to rebuy. This can be one of those times and it would be OK. She had a flush on the turn or a 5 with a heart that made a flush, IMO. If she is willing to blast the turn and river, why would she not be willing to blast the flop with 99/55/QQ?? If you are beat just reload and carry on. Too tight to fold, especially in TX.
If you put the final board in fllopzilla and put in her wide range leaning more towards suited hands (including your 2 dead cards of A h 10h) she still gets there nearly 20% of the time with the flush. Whereas full houses are around 3% of the time. I know that you have to calibrate that to how she played and how much money you put in but wider players sometimes get desperate because they rarely htt their flushes. Unless she's incapable of bluffing I'm just never folding if I only need 31% equity (you have 97 % mathematically).
If she was behind she would have been tempted at least to reveal it when player folded. That she didn't makes it a little more likely she was ahead with some weird boat. But at the time of the decision, I think I would have called. The river bet isn't big enough for the math to require a fold, so folding is just a matter of how you're reading her. If you're willing to give her credit for misplaying a boat, then you have to also assume she might be misplaying a weaker flush. There are way more flushes in her range than boats, so I think I would just flick in the call and prepare to be coolered.
I think she'd show it if she had quads, because most players want everyone to see it. I feel like in this spot, she might not show an over-valued hand like a worse flush, because she'd be embarrassed at how badly she played it. She might show a boat if she slow-played QQ or 99 on the flop, so that the rest of the table thinks twice about trying to bluff her. But I doubt she's going to show 52 if that's what she had. The way this one was played, I think we have to call. If she's going to over-play a boat or quads, she most likely would have check-raised flop with 2P or a set. This feels like she turned trips with a 5, or she turned a weaker boat. If she turned trips with a 5, the only boats she has on the river are 52, and if that's what she's got, she's just going to get our money.
She either caught a miracle card to pair her kicker and got there with 52, or she turned a worse flush and decided to go with it, or she just massively over-played trip 5's. As played, I think we have to call. No way she flopped 2P or a set and didn't go for the check raise. If she got there with 52, she's just going to get paid. Then again - maybe she slow-played 55 and then decided to go warp speed with turned quads? Hard to know what to do here without more background on V's tendencies. Like, does she ever donk-lead with her draws, or 2P or sets? Does she ever check-raise? In the big pots she's played, was she the aggressor or calling, and did she have it or not when she was the aggressor?
I'm probably calling but from the description of her play it's entirely possible she can have any of the boats. He said she will limp call AA multi ways. She can have QQ 99 55 Q5 95 (he said she had 90% vpip even if that's an exaggeration she certainly can have suited Q5 and 95) Why is there no way she can have two pair or a set on the flop and not raise? We are talking about someone who's extremely far away from being an even semi competent player.
My experience is whenever a loose/call station donk leads on a turn, they hit a BIG hand and you should tread with care. If the board didn't pair and she leads, you can safely put her on a flush (probably King high since hero has the Ace). It's a subconcious thing...deep down we know the action card that will pay us off big stacks, and when that particular card hits a majority of people can't contain themselves and start building a pot/shoving all in.
@@fkscopes It's always true that anything is possible. But if I'm trying to be logical... 1. She limp-called with AA multi-ways, including check-calling post-flop. That could simply mean that she's loose-passive pre-flop, but doesn't necessarily mean she's always playing loose-passive post-flop. Perhaps in those AA hands the board had a flush or straight possible on the flop, freezing her from raising. Caller said she showed-down some "real" hands in big pots, but we didn't hear if she was the aggressor or just called the whole way. If she was the aggressor in any of those pots, it may be that she feels better getting money in post-flop with hands that are stronger than just 1P. In another comment below, the caller says she fast-played A7 on a flop of 773, and lost to 33. So she does have some aggression in her when she flops a strong hand, it seems. 2. She's stuck two buy-ins and VPIPing 90%. That probably means she's playing too many hands, in the hopes of making a monster she can take to war and win a big pot. The flop is pretty wet - Q-high with a flush draw and multiple straight draws possible. That's the sort of flop someone in her position would want to check-raise with her flopped 2P and sets, to get un-stuck, and not risk a bad run-out in a six-way pot (five ways after BB folds to BTN's flop bet). If she flopped 2P or a set, in a six-way pot, is she really going to just check-call the BTN's bet when there are still 3 more opponents left to act behind her, plus the bettor on the BTN? Her 2P or set has to hold up against 4 unknown hands, all with position on her, including the PFR and the BTN. 3. If she did slow-play a set or 2P on the flop, and improved to a boat or better, why suddenly change gears and go aggro with her nutted hand? Players who slow-play tend to keep slow-playing. If she's fast-playing some boat, I'd expect her to fast-play 2P or a set on the flop. It's unusual to see players who are trapping decide they suddenly want to spring their trap by donking out with an over-bet on the turn. They usually go for a check-raise on the flop when they have a strong but vulnerable hand, or jam river after they turn the nuts. This line of check-call flop, donk over-bet turn, and jam river doesn't make a lot of sense if she flopped 2P or a set and then boated up on the turn. The only boat I can give her credit for is 52 that got there on the river, unless she slow-played 55 on the flop and decided to fast-play quads on the turn for some inexplicable reason. 4. Assuming she did turn a boat or quads - there are still two opponents left in the hand, including hero as the PFR, and the BTN, who took the betting lead on the flop. What hands would she think those two opponents have here? Hero MIGHT have slow-played QQ on the flop, which beats 99/Q5/95, if she has any of those. The BTN might have 99, which beats Q5/95. But it's more likely one or both opponents flopped 2P, a flush draw, or some sort of combo draw. All of her opponents' flush draws and combo-draws got there on the 5h turn. Their QQ & 99 combos are boats. One or the other of her opponents is likely to bet the turn. All their other holdings are going to be weak 1P/2P hands or off-suit straight draws, that are likely to fold to her over-bet. There's really no reason for her to fear the turn will be checked through by any hands that would call her bet, so she can just check-call and go for a check-raise on the river. There's actually a risk one or both opponents will fold some strong hands, including weak flushes, that would have bet had she just checked the turn. On the river, her jam is definitely folding out all non-nut flushes. She can only get called by nut flushes and boats, and unless she turned quads, most or all of her boats will be weaker than the boats her opponents will have. They're going to have QQ/99 more, whereas she's going to have more Q5/95/52. 5. If we give her credit for mis-playing hands that beat us, we should also give her credit for mis-playing hands we beat. The way this was played, I think she's got a lot more worse flushes than boats or quad combos. The key inflection point was the 5h on the turn. Her turn donk is repping 55, trip 5's, or a worse flush for value. Hard to think she'd be in there with 52 the way this was played (would she limp-flat pre and check-call flop with 52?). There's only one combo of 55, and we have to think she'd donk-lead or check-raise flop with a set on this wet board, or continue to slow-play after improving to quads. That really just leaves trips or a weaker flush as her most likely holdings here.
@@brianpotter2812 Trip 5's is a big hand. So is a flush. She's definitely not "bluffing" here, but she could easily be over-playing a hand worse than the nut flush. Every possible flush draw is either a combo draw or flush-draw with back-door straight draw on the flop, and about half are K-high or J-high flushes. It's just a single-raised pot, and hero didn't c-bet or raise flop, so she could have K-high, J-high, or 8-high flushes here, and think she's good on the turn, then just decide to go with it on the river, and hope she gets called by worse, somehow.
Most low stakes players slow play sets and top two pair on the flop so I wouldn't be surprised if she had 99. if she is playing every hand than Q5 is possible. But when you see a player just call with everything including AA and then you see them Betting, I've been in a pretty similar situation not long ago and I folded 3rd nuts to a lady who ONLY bet when she had the absolute nuts. But any other situation I'm calling here.
@@danielmeuler2877 I actually think bad recs playing low stakes feel like check-raising the flop with sets and 2P is somehow mandatory. They all seem x/r-crazy, especially on wet flops. That said, I agree with you that it's scary when the passive player suddenly wants to start shoveling money into the pot on a nut-changing card. Then again, the way caller described her, it sounds like she plays strong hands passively, so this hyper-aggressive line seems inconsistent with her previous play. I started to wonder if she might have played 55 this way, but I'd think she would have shown it if she had quads, unless she was embarrassed that she over-played it. She obviously improved on the turn, so it seems like she either turned trips (or a boat, or quads) or turned a worse flush. Hard to think about what boats she'd have on the turn. Maybe 99 that slow-played flop. Maybe Q5 or 95. Maybe she somehow got in there with 52 and rivered the boat, as unlikely as that seems. But if we're giving here all the boats and quad combos, I think we also have to give her all the flush combos. She could have combo draws on the flop with KJ/J8/87/86/76, and might even be getting in there as wide as 43s. With the post-flop line hero took as the PFR, she might think he's calling flop and turn with all his TT/JJ combos and worse flush draws (assuming she has the K or J of hearts).
@@1vailchris I agree, Check Raise is the go to move of the Rec player. And also if she had Quads, she would have shown them. Also if it was a Big Bluff, she would have shown it.
@@danielmeuler2877 Agreed. A lot of people in the comments seem to think any worse hand is a bluff here, and she's never bluffing. But she could have a lot of worse hands that she could be playing this way for value, not as bluffs. She could have trip 5's or a worse flush, and play it this way. She's not "bluffing" if she thinks she's best. She's just value-owning herself.
Bart mentioned his preference in cbetting AhTh over like Ah3h here bc it could pick up additional equity and maybe that is correct in multiway pots. However I thought I would point out that in most spots it seems the solver prefers taking aggressive actions with the FD with the lower kickers and plays the bigger kickers more passively. Think its mainly bc the field can have KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h and so on when you have the Ah3h but not the AhTh. In other words FD over FD.
I’m pretty confident the caller made a good fold on this one. Especially given that this lady limp called aces pre and checked it down. She doesn’t seem like the type to go out of her way to bluff or even bet without a non-nutted hand if she checked down aces. It makes it an easier fold if she has every boat in her range from QQ to 25 because she’s limp calling any 2 suited cards and apparently hands as good as AA too. MAYBE she has some random 5 or the K high flush and just didn’t know what to do on the river, but I think boats make up a way bigger part of her range when a passive player all of a sudden comes out swinging like this. Also when she won’t tell the table her hand, I think it could be a sign she’s embarrassed her opponent made a good fold and didn’t get value
This is one of those calls where the competency of the villain magically changes mid hand based on where our fear level is. Why not just thumbnail this one monsters under the bed. We actually discuss whether she sees the 4th heart but not the paired board based on her skill level...why? She literally played this like a flush draw on the flop then bet it like a hit flush. Here's where her magic bullet skill level came into play again, she doesn't bet or raise her monster flop QQ or Q5 but now the passive player loves the turn bet. It's a call on the river only because of the villain you described.
Bro you're a savage! But, yeah, the logic here isn't consistent, not hers, and not a lot of people in the comments. "But she slow-played aces!" Yeah, maybe she did. So why is she suddenly shifting gears and fast-playing her boat or better on the turn and river, after slow-playing on the flop? What is this limp-flat-check-call-donk overbet-jam line, from a terrible rec, if not a spew with a worse flush or even just trip 5's? Hero actually played this one perfectly until the river. He's the one who slow-played by not c-betting flop or raising turn with the nut flush. His hand is so under-repped. She's not good enough to give him credit for having the nut flush on the turn. We have to call the river when we play the nut flush draw this way.
Yep. Bart, for as good as he usually is, never seems to understand how "maniac" and "bad rec" players actually think in a hand, or rather, *don't* think, lol. It's just silly when he's talking about how no one would be crazy enough to value-bet a weak flush on this river when that is precisely how those player types actually play.
I don't care what anyone else says, this is a SNAP call. She should never, ever have a set after check-calling the flop. Likewise, would she really check-call with Q5 on the flop? Highly unlikely. So that only leaves 4 combos of 95s or 52s as hands that beat us... which is also unlikely. 95s miiiiiight check-call the flop, but doubtful. And would 52 really lead the turn for full pot? Also doubtful. This clearly looks like a flush, most likely king-high. There are plenty of flush combos available even though hero holds 2 hearts, and we shouldn't rule out K5 or J5 with a heart as well. Given the player type (~90% VPIP, super stuck, fishy play), we should absolutely expect small flushes to overplay by jamming river. So 4 value combos that beat us, and literally dozens of smaller flushes panic-betting the river despite getting hosed. Getting >2:1 on a call this is an absolutely horrendous fold. In fact, hero's comment about leaving after this hand and "racking up the win" despite there being a mega-fish dumping thousands of dollars at the table further confirms he's just scared to lose. Terrible, terrible fold.
The key here is whether V tends to overvalue her hands (not whether she is wide). If I don't have that info, I'm folding even turn. If she overvalues her hand, then calling river is a must.
The caller should've known that info: How did she get stacked often?? Did she make calls with overvaluing hands? Or, she overbet non-nutted hands? My speculation tells me she overvalued her hands often (I don't think one gets stacked often by bad beats). So: it's a call on river.
Just check/call flop with a set or two pair… then lead full pot with a full house or quads?? Go from trapping with a hand that could use protection, to leading huge when they dont have much to worry about? I dunno.. feels a lot more like Kx of Hearts here…
Being that she's limping pre and check calling with AA multiway, it's not really out of the realm of possibility she would just call the flop with bottom 2.
No, not on this flop/turn. A boat or quads on the turn was a slow-played set or 2P. How do we give her credit for slow-playing those hands on the flop, with 3 opponents still left to act behind her, then suddenly changing gears when she boats up on the turn, when the turn also completes all her opponents' flush draws? Her opponents are either going to do the betting for her, or fold to this aggression. It doesn't make sense for her to slow-play on this insanely wet flop in a multi-way pot, then fast-play a monster when she improves on this specific nut-changing card. If she's trapping on the flop, and boats up on the turn, she'd wait until the river to spring the trap, rather than risk her opponents folding to this insane donk-lead. Her line is repping a worse flush or turned trips with 52 that catches a miracle 2 to boat up on the river.
Seems like a solid fold, a player who checks down with AA and never bets it isn't pumping the turn and river with a K high flush for value... Most likely has her full house, or that is one epic bluff with what?? JT?
Regardless of the villain’s lack of bluffs, she shows all the signs of being a player to overestimate the strength of her hand. With how wide she plays, even something like KQ with Kh or QJ with Jh is possible, or even any queen with a heart and she doesn’t know what to do on the river so she just bombs. Same with just a bare 5. No clue what to do on river so she just bombs. With her history, she was likely to bet out or check raise with Q5 or 95 on flop. This is absolutely a call here. If she has it she has it. Only boat I’m expecting is 52.
Against these bad-recs, I tend to divide the marginal hands in my range into hands that will over-fold and hands that will over-call. It's almost as simple as asking myself, "is my hand in the top or bottom half of my range here?" We can over-fold a lot of our marginal hands because these players will find a way to give us their money when we're in a better spot. Here, this has to be a call. Hero isn't slow-playing QQ/99/55 on this flop after the BTN stabs and V calls, so the nut flush is literally the best hand he'll ever have here. V can have some oddly-played boats or quads, but she's going to have a ton more badly-played worse flushes.
hard but good fold👍, feels like lady got excited on a turn and bet full house or even quads. and when she didnt show at the end she sure knew there was 4 card of same suit on board. Also she earlier slowplayed AA and most lose players won't be doing that. or she is a total beginner and you never know😂.
Exactly. all these people saying "oh, but she's been stacked several times" is because she's a CALL STATION. When they switch gears and get aggressive it's the nuts or the effective nuts every time.
It's a terrible fold, the way this was played. What full-house or better does she have, that wants to fast-play on this turn, but didn't want to fast-play on the flop? What rivered boats does she have that are limp-flatting UTG and calling the BTN's flop bet with 3 opponents still left to act behind her? Hero's hand is insanely under-repped. She has way more combos we beat than combos that beat us.
I could see her playing Kh9x here this way. She has nothing pre-flop, flops middle pair and back door hearts. Makes two pair on the turn with a boat/flush draw and decides to over bet pot to fold out low flushes that might have already gotten there and/or a Q. She wouldn't want to show at the end because it's not a total bluff, but she also only had a hand that was probably only winning with a shove.
She'd have to be super-terrible to play Kh9x that way. She's losing to over-pairs, better 2P (Q9/A9), and slow-played sets. It's unlikely anyone is folding any flush on the turn, especially if the hero was checking a flush draw or the BTN was betting a flush draw, either or both of which seem pretty likely on the flop. Random / weak Qx hands might fold, and worse 9x might fold, but it's extremely ambitious to turn bottom two pair into a bluff, to get folds from flushes on the turn. I doubt many players are folding 5x on the turn, when they have 10 outs to make a boat on the river. It isn't even a big over-bet, $425 into $375. That's just over pot, small enough to make me wonder if she knew she was over-betting. If she's trying to fold out a better hand, she should go at least 1/3 over pot, like $500, or more. Kh9x has too much equity to turn it into a bluff. We can just check-call turn and hope to improve on the river, or if not, that it'll go check-check on turn, and we can bet river (or check-call a bet on turn, and hope the river goes check-check, because we're not check-calling 3 streets with Kh9x).
@@lopardi K9 is in her range, sure, maybe. But the logic you assigned to her doesn't make a whole lot of sense, even for a player who plays AA passively, but will go to war when she actually has a hand. Think about the gear-changes in this hand, with Kh9x - she limp-flats UTG pre, flats the flop with middle pair and a couple back-door draws to non-nut hands, with 3 opponents left to act behind her, any of whom might be planning a check-raise, blasts off on the turn with a hand that doesn't beat much of anything either of her two remaining opponents can have that will call, then jams the river after getting called by the PFR, who can have all the boats and better flushes in his range, but is just going to fold every hand she beats, and may only fold out one hand that beats her. One or two of those decisions might seem reasonable at the time it was made, but in sequence, the logic isn't really all that consistent: she must know she's probably behind when she limp-flats pre, she's probably behind when she check-calls on flop, she's probably behind when she donk-leads on the turn, she's probably ahead but might still be behind when she jams on the river, when she's more likely to get value if she checks and hero bluffs or value-bets a worse hand than when she bets and gets snapped off by a better hand. Kh9x is possible, but we can give her every flush and trip 5's combo without having to assign her some crazy logic that doesn't make much if any sense. If we're going to assign her that sort of logic, then Kh9x is no more or less likely than a lot of equally random hands that could also be played this way, using similarly inconsistent logic. She might have KhQx, or Kh5x, or 52s no heart, or A5o no heart, or any pocket pair with a heart - what hands are NOT in her range, if she plays Kh9x this way?
Caller hasn't shown much strength with his line and most recs love to trap and rarely donk bomb a boat+ on the turn. I would call expecting some sort of spazz like a 5 or a lower flush. Maybe fold if the rec is loose passive enough to limp call QQ and 99 pf as well as vipping Q5o and 95o.
I was thinking the same at first, this has to be trips or a worse flush, but thinking about it more, I would want to have some more history on this V, to know if she ever donk-leads or check-raises flops, if she was the aggressor or the caller when she had a big hand, etc. Hard to fold here no matter what, but it's not impossible that she slow-played the flop and then over-played turn and river for some bizarre reason only she knows.
I'm focusing on 4th st betting 425 into 2 *competent* players 🤔 IMO she had Kh or a 5. 2nd whole card irrelevant bc she's borderline maniac in stuck mode. I'd call, but the correct play is probably fold?
I thought for sure she had a K high flush but the way the hand ended makes me think it was a boat. The hero exposed his hand. Most recreational players can't resist showing when they got someone to fold a better hand. If his nut flush was good, I think she would have showed.
I think she had 5x suited not putting you on a flush and turned her hand into a bluff on the river only ting that makes sense , I doubt she had a boat .
It was implied if he made his flush. But in his spot, I'm never folding if a heart or Ace hits against that type of player. Quads or a boat, take my $$$... if they stay, I'll get it back if someone else doesn't beat me to it.
@@herts9999 Agree. The way hero played this, the nut flush is the best hand he'll have on the river. V might have some oddly-played boats or even quads, but she'll have a ton more worse flushes in her range.
I have 4 minutes left in the video. I got to the river with no reveal. Bart seems to lean towards a fold. I am calling river if I were hero. By the way the caller describes the villain’s archetype; she can easily be overvaluing a King High flush.
You guys need to remember this is a Passive table. If people are betting big or all in on river they have it a lot of the times. Also I think if he showed his cards and she had a bluff 100% I would show I bluffed him off that hand. Just my opinion
I think I somehow missed this one when it was new. It's a very tough decision. On the one hand, I want to "play the player", in which case it's a must call. On the other hand, as played we cannot beat any competent player here. This special villain who is playing very loose & losing enough to be re-buying is just too crazy for me to fold the nut flush to. A bad player can easily have king high flushes here. But how competent is she? If she made a boat on the turn, then she has no hearts. Why does she donk bet 425 into 375 on turn first to act, when it's so likely someone just hit a flush? At the end of the day I think hero should have called here. This villain seems crazy enough & bad enough that I just cannot make huge laydowns. Now if I thought the villain was a good player, then I know I cannot beat any value. But what hand does a good player take this line with & beat hero's nut flush? And if she is playing ATC here then how many KXhh combo's does she have? How often is this Kh5x? Seems like she could easily play that hand like this. Sometimes I think it's harder to play against bad-loose players than highly competent ones. Because it's so hard to determine what they're thinking and/or make sense of their actions given certain board textures.
This is a spot where you have to bet the flop. Bart alluded to it, but this is a must bet, as it is the most profitable line. $50 on the flop is going to be called by many, and no matter what people do, you are happy. If they call great, if they fold great, if the raise great. They reason is because you don't have reverse implied odds. If the flush, or back door straight, comes in, you are good. Lower flushes it's not a 100% bet. Imagine if all players were all in on the flop, so the pot was around $9,000, you would jump for joy calling the all ins with your equity and odds. It would be one of the most profitable spots you'd ever see. So, you don't mind callers or raises.
Most of the time, we can c-bet this flop, because we can rep top pair or better as the PFR. But in super-loose/passive games, I don't mind checking with more aggro players behind us in multi-way pots. We don't want to c-bet flop, get raised by the BTN, and have 1 or more players call in front of us. We'll be in no-man's land. I think we can take a mixed strategy of c-betting sometimes, and checking sometimes. But if we do check, especially from OOP, we have to be prepared to put in some check-raises with our high-equity draws. Here, in MP with 2 V's in front and 2 behind, going for a check-raise with hero's hand might be a bit too fancy, and could backfire if the BTN 3B's over our x/r, or calls with Q5 and boats up on the turn.
The way callers have been running into weird stuff lately, I presume that if he calls, she flips over KKh. The turn lead could just be from kings up. He already saw her limp call with AA. Three other things: 1. On the flop, I was thinking of value betting it like LHE before you mentioned that. I'd do it if I thought I might get 4, 5, or 6 callers, and the chance of getting blown off my hand wasn't high. As always, the question is bet sizing. In LHE, at 6-way $150 pot raised once preflop, the flop bet would be $12.50, but here I think I'd make if $40. It's a risky move only if you're monkey in the middle between to big hands. It might be considered a cheap way of "seeing where you're at" if you do get blown off by a raise and 3-bet. 2. The river card was by far not the worst card. Pairing the board again, especially tripping the 5, would be worse. 3. On the turn, hero's hand becomes capped, it is clear to villain that hero did not fill up, and the call also rules out 22. So on the river, with the Kh, all she has to worry about is the Ah, while knowing that Ah has to believe she is full. Putting hero into a tough spot gives her fold equity against the absolute only hand she can lose to. On the other hand, to have Kh, it almost has to be Kh8h or worse, or KK, because if she flopped a straight flush draw, the flop play would very likely be different.
OMG, so many typos, did I really write this? I meant 4/5/6 ways to the turn; at=a; to=two; etc. Getting old sucks, now while typing stuff that is buffered while my fingers catch up with my brain, "sounds like" errors happen more often. I think this is the first time it's extended as far as typing the wrong to/two/too. But having to proofread everything I type, sucks too. I guess it's time to get used to that.
Not reckless...she's a call station and never raised her AA preflop. I see a lot of old people/regs do this because they're shy, but they sure as hell know how to bet the nuts!
Of course and saying he didn't because a competent button player he feared made the bet is so backwards. Button bets there with A9 and sometimes air. You aren't raising thinking you are ahead of the button, you know you aren't but it fattens the pot even drawing in other non nut flush draws like the villain who far more than likely had a flush. The analysis here is pretty much horrible every street.
I wish we got to see what she had, not that it matters too much. Crazy loose players are so hard to play against, watching them lose their stack time and again and the one time you make a great hand they’ve run into some totally random monster. I’d probably fold too, they can’t be over valuing with a four flush on board surely?
The reason why I'm mad we didn't get the reveal is because I play there and know who that woman is and I want to know as much as possible in terms of how she plays. And FYI the vpip Is higher than 90% lol
I don’t think she had a full house her worst case scenario after hero reveals the nut flush is him folding out and not getting value from that. Her saying she would never reveal means she knows she got lucky that the hero folded to her in my opinion.
so this is one of those spots where i feel like bart is just a bit out of touch with the reality that is live low limit poker. you simply cannot rule out a full house on the turn based on the way she played the flop. yes, no reasonable player could play a hand this way and show up with a full house on the turn. but this lady was described as extremely loose passive even in multiway pots with AA pf. if she hasnt shown aggression all night and all of a sudden donk leads a turn when the board pairs she absolutely could (maybe even probably does) have a full house or even quads. no way am i ruling that out. bart, I PROMISE YOU there is a small subsection of people out there at the smallest games playing like this. river is tricky. its one of those you kinda had to be there spots. she got stacked a bunch. was she tilted? was she gambling like crazy to try to get it back? or was she in a reasonable headspace? none of what the caller said gave off any indications she was titled or playing wildly. actually the opposite. also, like bart said, did she even see the 4th heart? is she capable of reading the board always? is she a brand new player who might not grasp hand strength on different board textures? this is a tough one. go with your gut. havent gotten to any of the comments yet, but i guarantee there will be tons of 'she could have anything/its low stakes/im never folding' type comments. the biggest mistake i see in reading low limit opponents on here is that people confuse loose with crazy. yes when the hand starts the loosest low limit players could have J4s, 87, could have cold called a 3bet with A8, etc but when they aggress, especially on later streets and/or for big money, they 100% of the time have it. i would actually say that a lot of the loosest low limit players ive encountered kinda have that quality. anyway, super interesting hand.
That's my read on how she played. From the her description she would definitely play pocket 5's UTG. Slow play her flop sets, starts betting after the turn.
There are any number of hands that Hero loses to here, the fold certainly seems like the best and only option vs a 90%VPIPing maniac leading into you when bluffs are so unlikely.
Bart saying maybe you could call because you are getting 2-1. I think that’s nuts. It is much stronger than 2-1 that this woman is not firing all in with just a K high flush.
@@MrJamberee A player with a 90% VPIP, who's already down at least 2 buy-ins, is absolutely capable (dare I say LIKELY) to be betting recklessly with just a K-high flush. Why are you treating a bad fish like Phil Ivey?
Im never folding lol. Its not even that big of a pot a few hundred bb's vs a total wildcard with the nut flush. You lose oh well now the fish is juiced up with chips and going to give them back and going to give me more action in the future bc she stacked me. That would be the way Id assess the spot
I’m shoving turn 100% of the time. She’s always behind and always calling after that $425 bet…. I don’t get the logic of just calling turn and folding river when nothing changes vs a 90% vpip fish.
The river changes in that she's still showing max aggression even when the 4th heart comes out. If she had the flush on the turn bet, she'd most likely want to tone it down on the river. Therefore, she's now representing Just a boat. (but as a rec player, she could just be spazzing out not knowing what to do with mediocre flush)
@@jordanmason8296 yeah but she’s a fish. Just the fact she donk overbet turn means she’s not a thinking player. You can’t inject logic into these players thought patterns, they are simply clicking buttons. She’s almost certainly spaz betting the river as you said because fish like her simply don’t know what to do in spots like this.
Against this V, with her back-story, I like a turn jam here, too. She's calling with almost all her worse flushes, and probably with a lot of her turned trips. If she's stuck two buy-ins already, she probably would have donk-led or check-raised flop with 2P or a set, so I can't give her credit for turning a boat. If she just turned trips with 5x, her only boat on the river is 52. If she got there with 52, she's just getting my money. I wonder if she even realized she was over-betting pot on the turn. It's not that big an over-bet, $425 into $375. She doesn't sound like the type of player who understands polarizing with big over-bets, certainly not enough to think she'd deliberately make a SLIGHT over-bet for some strategic reason. I'd expect bad recs to make a standard size bet, or go ridiculously huge if they're going to over-bet.
the problem with the turn jam is that the player on the button has still to act, and he's the one that bet flop. That was my thinking at least. @@1vailchris
There's simply no real chance a terrible rec is leading for more than pot when she turns a boat. They slow play too much, not too little, and even terrible players know it's missing tons of value to do something that strong with such a strong hand. Hero is always good here.
You idiots werent listening to the caller. This lady is ULTRA PASSIVE. Flat called Aces all the way down with 0 agression. This is the type of player that waits for something SUPER NUTTED before betting, not the kind of person that check raises. The reason she doesnt raise with aces is because she waits for board run outs and realizes one pair is just a pair and if her opponents play like her, they can have any two cards. When the callers hand occurs, and she leads on the turn, CLEARLY she has a boat OR better (Quads). She would never do this with a non nut hand because shes the most face up player in the world. God you people are so dumb sometimes.
@@PatrickA1 If we think she's limp-flatting pre with K5o from UTG and calling the BTN's flop bet with 5 opponents behind her, with just bottom pair and no real high-equity draw, I don't see how we can ever fold the river. She could have every worse flush, every 5x suited, and every 5x offsuit with some big heart in her range.
The result doesn't matter, and 90% of the time I don't care if the caller doesn't know if the player had it or not, but I'm so disappointed this time. I so wanted a final reveal. 🙂
Hero exposed his hand and got no emotion...I'd say that was a good fold although we all wanted to see the showdown. Hero didn't walk away busted...that's a win.
See, I actually think the opposite. If she had the nuts and was hoping to get paid, she might have shown some disappointment that he folded the nut flush. I know I often can't help having some reaction when my opponent makes an amazing fold. But if she was bluffing or just over-valuing a worse hand, and realized how bad her play was, she might not want to give anything away with her reaction.
Hard to believe all the comments saying this was a good fold. Her line isn't consistent with a boat or quads. It is consistent with worse flushes, and insanely over-played trips. She has way more worse hands in her range than better hands. She's just over-playing whatever she has here.
it's not hard at all (to believe). (Majority) People here tend to go along with Bart's opinion. . I'd called river against her type of player. (She's getting stacked often!!). Obviously, person who wants to have fun, not worrying about the money.
I can almost guantee that she had pocket queens. Having played with *ALOT* of calling stations. They don't bluff, they don't have a three bettting range, they love to trap if they make trips on the flop. This is a classic play of a calling station - seen it tons of times - lost to it tons of times also.
She had a quads. Bottom set on flop, nervous about potential flush. Hit quads, and overbet. When hero calls, she knows he’s flushed. She bets max. Good lay down.
Clueless players will stack off here all day with a King High flush. Absolutely a call. Your big mistake is thinking players like this think logically at poker - they don’t.
@@Mathemagical55 She has it on the turn? Has what? A boat? So you think she slow-played the flop with 2P or a set, but then decides to change gears and go warp speed with a boat on the turn, donk-leading into two opponents, one of whom is the pre-flop raiser who check-called flop, and the other is the BTN who took the betting lead on the flop? She's going to fast-play a boat on this board, when one or the other of her opponents is likely to bet, but will fold all their over-pairs and a lot of their weaker hands? The caller/hero here is in the comments. He said she went broke in an earlier hand, fast-playing A7 on a board of 773, losing to 33. She fast-plays top trips in that hand, but she's going to slow-play a flopped set or 2P here, then suddenly decide to fast-play a monster on the turn? It makes no sense. She either turned trips and is over-playing it, or got there with 52 of some other suit, or she's got a worse flush. The way hero played his hand, she's got a lot more worse flushes than boats here.
My guess is hero got outplayed. She knows you don't have a boat, and she knows you have to fold any non-ace flush. Plus she knows you might fold the ace. She played the hand really well, but this has to be a call.
@@jwr3289 A good player would realize this. A bad player might not. A bad player might think the 4th heart makes it harder for their opponents to have a flush, because there's one less heart they could have in their hand. They're not thinking about what hands they can get value from or what hands they beat. They're just thinking that their flush is the nuts. Either way, flush-over-flush doesn't happen that often, so a lot of bad players are just going to go with whatever flush they have. Here, she could have a lot of combo-draws on the flop, including a couple K-high and J-high combos - KJ/J8. K-high and J-high flushes are hard for a lot of players to lay down, even good players. The way this was played, hero could have some worse flushes, and it's not impossible that she thought he would have c-bet flop as the PFR or raised the turn with all his nut flush draws.
CLP Caller here: I wish I would have small bet the flop. I wish I called the river just to know what she had one way or the other...I felt like she slow played the flop based on how she slow played AA previously in the session. I felt like she boated on the turn and knew she'd get paid by flushes. Oh well. I hope I see her again at TCH and maybe she'll tell me what she had so I can sleep at night lol
Good on you for calling it in and commenting here. I've been thinking about this one since Bart posted it up, and wondering if you noticed anything about her tendencies from other pots she played. For instance - had she ever donk-led flop or turn before, and if so, what sort of hands did she show (if she showed)? Did she ever check-raise with flopped sets or 2P on wet boards, or did she also play those passively? In the big pots she played, the ones where you said she had a real hand, was she the aggressor or the caller? Having that background info might have helped you find the call or feel better about the fold. The way this was played, I think I'd probably call. My thinking is that if she's going to over-play her strong hands on turn or river, she'd also likely over-play them on the flop. So if she flopped a set or 2P on this wet board, I'd expect her to donk-lead or go for the x/r. Her sudden over-bet donk on the turn made me think she either had 5x and turned trips, or turned a weaker flush. The all-in on the river makes me think it was the latter. She turned a flush, and decided she was just going with it once you called turn, no matter what the river card was. If she had 55, she probably would have shown it, because people like to show quads. If she had QQ or 99, she probably would have shown it, to put the rest of the table on notice not to bluff her, or call her light. She probably would have shown Q5 or 95, to prove that she's not jamming light. That really just leaves 52 for boats, which she might not have shown, because it's garbage and she knows she just got very lucky to spike a 3-outer, and worse flushes, which she might not have shown out of embarrassment that she made such a horrible river play. I'm not buying that she flopped 2P or a set and slow-played it, then decided to go hyper-aggressive on turn. If she got there with 52, she's getting my money. This just seems like a bad rec spew with a worse flush, and we should be happy to call.
Thanks for your feedback! After much thought, I wish I would've called. I am moving up in stakes, and I have about 15 BI for this game, so protecting my roll as it was towards the end of my session played a factor as well. The only real reads I had was that she A) played 90% B) She limp called a lot....even with AA with zero aggression preflop/flop/turn/river. C) The one hand she showed aggression was a 773 board. She had A7, someone had 33 and she got stacked. I had so many counter points to calling, then I also had a lot of counter points to folding. The reason for folding was more on the player profile side of the equation. Female, VPIP high, big bets on the river are usually value, etc.... Reasons for calling were based on the way the hand played: She should check raise her sets and two pairs on the flop if she had a boat, etc. Sorry for the long response! @@1vailchris
@@jordanmason8296take this piece of free advice for what it is ("free" is worth what one pays for it?)? LOL. You may find it more profitable to view each hand in isolation, ignoring relative to 1st, 16th, or last of the session...? The goal is to play each and every hand as optimally as you possibly can, regardless.. Example, I determine any randomization strategy Before a session starts...and stick with it except for hyper exploitive hand situations, same with the length of session... Then, from first hand to very last, I put 100% of my concentration on making the best decisions & plays I can... It's been a +Ev strategy for me..👍
@@jordanmason8296 Your response isn't as long as some of mine. No worries. I don't necessarily hate your fold here. One thing I try to keep in mind when playing against bad recs is that we don't want to give them our money by making hero calls when they bet. It's okay to let them bluff us or over-value a worse hand once in a while, because we can easily find better spots, when we know for certain we're way ahead. Their bluffs tend to be nonsensical, and their over-plays won't always happen when we have a hand we don't want to fold, so we don't need to hero-call much. When the bad rec is tilted after getting stacked twice, it doesn't necessarily mean they're bluffing off all their money in a big pot. I think it's more common to see them play too many pots, and go broke a little at a time, hoping to make a monster hand they can take to war. They're often desperate to get value for their real hands, which leads to them over-playing those hands. As for your reads - you're giving me nightmares with the 773 board. I just got stacked with Kd7d on a flop of 7h3h7c. I played it aggressively, jamming the 2c turn into 2 opponents - one with 7s6s, and the other on a flush draw. The flush draw got there on the river. The thing you'd want to pay attention to with that A7 hand is the action - was there any way she could have gotten away from her hand? It's hard to get away from top trips (I should know), but that one hand might be enough to push you towards a call in your spot - she had a strong hand, and she went with it, even knowing she didn't have the absolute nuts. Maybe she's just like a lot of us - if we're beat, so be it, but we're never laying down the 2nd or 3rd nuts (or in my case with K7, the 6th nuts). As for your reasoning - I don't disagree with any of it, except that a big bet could be for value, not a bluff, and still be a worse hand. If she's VPIPing 90%, she has a ton of flush combos in her range, most of which are combo-draws on the flop, and half of which are K-high or J-high, which are hands a lot of players are just going to go with, especially after you check-back flop as the PFR, and just flat the turn, when you might be c-betting the flop with your nut-flush draws, or raising turn with your nut flushes when she donk-leads. I think she's donk-leading or check-raising flop with 2P or better, so the 5h turn seems more likely to make her a flush than a boat or quads. It seems crazy for her to jam river on the 4th heart, but there again, she's stuck two buy-ins, she's desperate to get un-stuck, and women often feel like the male players try to push them around, so they will sometimes push back without the nuts. This could be a K- or J-high flush praying you call with the J- or T-high flush.
Stopped at 16:00
As played against what you have described, it is a call.
She will have KhJh, or Kh8h here a good portion of the time, not to mention even lower flushes.
Yes, sometimes she will have a weird Boat, but you can't fold the Nut Flush here.
Edit. Remember, she has already stacked off a number of times at the table. They is key here.
Yes, I should've called. At least I could live with knowing if I ended up being wrong.
@@jordanmason8296it’s a tough lay down but at that level, I don’t think you fold to weird boats. If she has you, you’ll get it back from her
That's a call 100% of the time on that board. Such a disconnected board making a full house so unlikely. Not like it's a Q 10 9 9 8 board or something that a full house is much more possible. And against that player and at TCH where everyone bluffs off their stack constantly. Ouch on this fold
Agree 100%. She could very well have been on tilt, and this was a desperate attempt to pull a pot.
This is out there but what if it was a hand like K5 Off with K of hearts? Shes been stacked multiple times this session, so i can see her over valuing trips on the turn and flush on the river. This would explain the slow play/donk activity. Also, a 5 way flop on a single raised preflop... the game was probably pretty wide
It's not crazy. But Kh5x is very wide/loose - she limp-flats pre from UTG, and flats the BTN's flop bet, with 3 more opponents still left to act behind her, including the pre-flop raiser, who could be 3B'ing the flop? If she's playing that insanely wide, I don't see how we can ever fold here.
I feel like we need to give more credence to when people have a good hand on the turn that gets severely downgraded on the river. They don’t know what to do and jam anyways.
The Old "Spaz Out when they realize their hand probably isn't good anymore" move. I see it a Lot and Love when it happens when I'm in the hand.
I think they think that the fourth flush card makes it less likely we also have a flush. They never believe they got flush over flushed when they have the K.
Absolutely, he wasn't playing Neeme.
@@1vailchris yeah, her bet on the turn seems designed to push out the ace of hearts and there's just a lot of question marks of if she really plays a flopped set or even two pair the way she's described. do quad 5s ever take this line? does any full house take this line when there's always either 55 or a better full house available? i think a good portion of the time she has the king of hearts with either another heart or possibly pocket kings. it may have been wrong, but i really wish hero called. i think her not revealing her hand suggests that she was beat and was embarrassed about it as i think intentional bluffs or better hands would tell hero.
@@wfchannel4673 For all the complaints we see when we don't get a reveal of V's hand, I think not knowing creates good discussion, and helps us exercise our mental muscles. To respond to your points...
1. With bad players, anything is possible. This could be a worse flush, a boat, quads, or an insanely over-played trip 5's.
2. That said, and since we don't know, all we can do is try to think about it logically. Caller said she played passively. She slow-played AA pre, and played it passively post-flop in another hand. Yet the caller is here in the comments, and revealed that she played A7 aggressively on a 773 flop, in one of the big pots she lost (to 33). While many in the comments apparently struggle trying to reconcile her passive play with AA with her aggression here, I look at that A7 hand as an example of how she plays a strong hand on the flop. Since she fast-played top trips in that A7 hand, I think she'd fast-play a flopped set or 2P here, leading me to believe that the 5h on the turn either made her a worse flush, or trip 5's, rather than a boat or quad 5's.
3. Even without the knowledge of how she played AA pre or trip 7's post, we can just look at her line here, taking into account that she was stuck two buy-ins, and playing a lot of pots. Presumably, she was playing a lot of pots in the hopes of making a monster hand she could take to war. There again, I'd think she'd lean towards fast-playing 2P or a set on this wet board, especially since there were still 3 more opponents left to act behind her when she called the BTN's flop bet, including hero, who was the pre-flop raiser. Her flop call incentivizes the other 3 players in the hand to call behind her, in a spot where she's not going to love very many turns, playing OOP, potentially against 4 opponents.
4. Most players who trap by slow-playing big hands will either spring the trap by check-raising on the flop, or wait until the river when they flop or turn a monster, so they don't scare opponents away by making a huge bet. If she was trapping with a set or 2P on the flop, the 5h on the turn is the perfect card to check if it makes her a boat or quads. With the PFR (hero) and the BTN still in the hand, and the BTN having the betting lead, there's a good chance one or the other turned a flush. She wouldn't want to do anything to scare away any weaker made hands, or hands that still had a chance to improve. Her turn bet is obviously or value, probably because she called flop with 5x and made trips, or called with a flush draw that got there, both hands that would want to get folds from better flush draws. If she had KK with the Kh, I think she may have check-raised flop, but if not, she probably wouldn't have donk-led turn, before she actually made her flush.
Whatever she did after hero folded, that info wasn't available to hero when he made his decision. But looking at the reasoning above, I think we have to call in hero's spot, because his hand is so under-repped, when he checks-back flop and flat calls turn. It's unlikely he'd raise pre with Q5/95, and unlikely he'd check back QQ/99/55 on the flop, in a six-way pot, with two players left to act behind him, and if he did, he probably wouldn't just flat call the BTN's flop bet after she calls from UTG. So he doesn't have many boats here. The nut flush is really the top of his range. Meanwhile, she probably would have check-raised flop with 2P or a set, so her only boats are two combos of 52 suited - bottom pair, no kicker, with no flush draw on the flop. Maybe she limped-flatted pre with 52s, and maybe she called flop with 52s, and maybe she donk-led turn, but it's just 2 combos, and it's questionable whether or not she'd donk-lead the turn into two players, when either could have turned a flush, and the BTN could have her crushed with 99/95/Q5.
Once he folds, she doesn't show, so that tells us a little more. I think if she had 55, she'd have shown, because everyone likes showing that they made quads. If she had QQ/99/95/Q5, she probably would have shown, to improve her damaged table image, and show everyone that she's not getting her money in bad, so they don't try to push her around by bluffing her too often. Once she jams, and hero reveals what he's folding, she probably realizes she over-played a worse hand in a situation where it should have been obvious she was beat. Even if she had 52, her flop call is terrible, her turn donk was terrible, and her river shove isn't great, since she made him fold the top of his range. Showing 52 isn't going to improve her image much at all. She really doesn't have any true "bluffs" to show as a brag. All she has are over-plays, and showing them isn't going to do anything for her.
Based on all we know, I think she had to have turned a worse flush, turned and over-played trip 5's, or gotten a miracle river card with 52.
Thanks Bart. It's good to get confirmation that nitty folds are good and we still learn from the hand regardless of what our opponent has. We won't always get that information from a tournament or live play anyway.
After analysis - I would fold river to this line (to this opponent). I am confident that this player type has a boat. Also the anecdote that she limped with aces suggests she is not often bluff happy. Feels like 99, 95, Q5, or even QQ (given that she limps with premiums). The 4th heart on the river makes it even more of a fold in my opinion: She would check all flushes.
She totally outplayed the whole table stacking off many times.
Hey keep it pg please. There’s kids here
Don’t sympathize with the blockheads who desperately need a reveal at the end Bart 👌🏻
I think she absolutely had it here, most players would love to show a bluff If they got someone to fold the nut flush. They’d also be reluctant to show the table how they made minimum value vs the nut flush. It sounds like she had quads to me with the ridiculous turn bet.
quads...lmao.
Villain as described has flush at least 50% of the time. What a terrible fold. Bart makes a big blunder assuming this woman's bet sizing correlates to absolute hand strength when it's been explained she will play any suited cards. It's very obvious that hero does not have a full house, and players who play any suited cards do not play them to fold 2nd nut flushes.
When truly novice recreational players are oop, their play becomes less predictable. Interesting twist in this hand. After the hand, her not telling what she had leans strongly toward a boat.
I dont know why but like Kh Qx was what jumped in my mind right away
I made plays SO OFTEN against certain loose player types, and 90% of the time, in MY case, they had it
Bart's right that the results "don't matter" all that much, but I still really wanted to see what she had lol.
Sometimes we are going to get stacked and have to rebuy. This can be one of those times and it would be OK. She had a flush on the turn or a 5 with a heart that made a flush, IMO. If she is willing to blast the turn and river, why would she not be willing to blast the flop with 99/55/QQ?? If you are beat just reload and carry on. Too tight to fold, especially in TX.
If you put the final board in fllopzilla and put in her wide range leaning more towards suited hands (including your 2 dead cards of A h 10h) she still gets there nearly 20% of the time with the flush. Whereas full houses are around 3% of the time. I know that you have to calibrate that to how she played and how much money you put in but wider players sometimes get desperate because they rarely htt their flushes. Unless she's incapable of bluffing I'm just never folding if I only need 31% equity (you have 97 % mathematically).
Bart, I am very clearly upset I didn't get a reveal.
If she was behind she would have been tempted at least to reveal it when player folded. That she didn't makes it a little more likely she was ahead with some weird boat. But at the time of the decision, I think I would have called. The river bet isn't big enough for the math to require a fold, so folding is just a matter of how you're reading her. If you're willing to give her credit for misplaying a boat, then you have to also assume she might be misplaying a weaker flush. There are way more flushes in her range than boats, so I think I would just flick in the call and prepare to be coolered.
I think she'd show it if she had quads, because most players want everyone to see it. I feel like in this spot, she might not show an over-valued hand like a worse flush, because she'd be embarrassed at how badly she played it. She might show a boat if she slow-played QQ or 99 on the flop, so that the rest of the table thinks twice about trying to bluff her. But I doubt she's going to show 52 if that's what she had.
The way this one was played, I think we have to call. If she's going to over-play a boat or quads, she most likely would have check-raised flop with 2P or a set. This feels like she turned trips with a 5, or she turned a weaker boat. If she turned trips with a 5, the only boats she has on the river are 52, and if that's what she's got, she's just going to get our money.
She either caught a miracle card to pair her kicker and got there with 52, or she turned a worse flush and decided to go with it, or she just massively over-played trip 5's. As played, I think we have to call. No way she flopped 2P or a set and didn't go for the check raise. If she got there with 52, she's just going to get paid.
Then again - maybe she slow-played 55 and then decided to go warp speed with turned quads? Hard to know what to do here without more background on V's tendencies. Like, does she ever donk-lead with her draws, or 2P or sets? Does she ever check-raise? In the big pots she's played, was she the aggressor or calling, and did she have it or not when she was the aggressor?
I'm probably calling but from the description of her play it's entirely possible she can have any of the boats. He said she will limp call AA multi ways. She can have QQ 99 55 Q5 95 (he said she had 90% vpip even if that's an exaggeration she certainly can have suited Q5 and 95)
Why is there no way she can have two pair or a set on the flop and not raise? We are talking about someone who's extremely far away from being an even semi competent player.
My experience is whenever a loose/call station donk leads on a turn, they hit a BIG hand and you should tread with care. If the board didn't pair and she leads, you can safely put her on a flush (probably King high since hero has the Ace). It's a subconcious thing...deep down we know the action card that will pay us off big stacks, and when that particular card hits a majority of people can't contain themselves and start building a pot/shoving all in.
I'm snapping this river. I don't think I'd have played it the way hero did, but if I did, there is no way I'm folding the way he described her.
@@fkscopes It's always true that anything is possible. But if I'm trying to be logical...
1. She limp-called with AA multi-ways, including check-calling post-flop. That could simply mean that she's loose-passive pre-flop, but doesn't necessarily mean she's always playing loose-passive post-flop. Perhaps in those AA hands the board had a flush or straight possible on the flop, freezing her from raising. Caller said she showed-down some "real" hands in big pots, but we didn't hear if she was the aggressor or just called the whole way. If she was the aggressor in any of those pots, it may be that she feels better getting money in post-flop with hands that are stronger than just 1P. In another comment below, the caller says she fast-played A7 on a flop of 773, and lost to 33. So she does have some aggression in her when she flops a strong hand, it seems.
2. She's stuck two buy-ins and VPIPing 90%. That probably means she's playing too many hands, in the hopes of making a monster she can take to war and win a big pot. The flop is pretty wet - Q-high with a flush draw and multiple straight draws possible. That's the sort of flop someone in her position would want to check-raise with her flopped 2P and sets, to get un-stuck, and not risk a bad run-out in a six-way pot (five ways after BB folds to BTN's flop bet). If she flopped 2P or a set, in a six-way pot, is she really going to just check-call the BTN's bet when there are still 3 more opponents left to act behind her, plus the bettor on the BTN? Her 2P or set has to hold up against 4 unknown hands, all with position on her, including the PFR and the BTN.
3. If she did slow-play a set or 2P on the flop, and improved to a boat or better, why suddenly change gears and go aggro with her nutted hand? Players who slow-play tend to keep slow-playing. If she's fast-playing some boat, I'd expect her to fast-play 2P or a set on the flop. It's unusual to see players who are trapping decide they suddenly want to spring their trap by donking out with an over-bet on the turn. They usually go for a check-raise on the flop when they have a strong but vulnerable hand, or jam river after they turn the nuts. This line of check-call flop, donk over-bet turn, and jam river doesn't make a lot of sense if she flopped 2P or a set and then boated up on the turn. The only boat I can give her credit for is 52 that got there on the river, unless she slow-played 55 on the flop and decided to fast-play quads on the turn for some inexplicable reason.
4. Assuming she did turn a boat or quads - there are still two opponents left in the hand, including hero as the PFR, and the BTN, who took the betting lead on the flop. What hands would she think those two opponents have here? Hero MIGHT have slow-played QQ on the flop, which beats 99/Q5/95, if she has any of those. The BTN might have 99, which beats Q5/95. But it's more likely one or both opponents flopped 2P, a flush draw, or some sort of combo draw. All of her opponents' flush draws and combo-draws got there on the 5h turn. Their QQ & 99 combos are boats. One or the other of her opponents is likely to bet the turn. All their other holdings are going to be weak 1P/2P hands or off-suit straight draws, that are likely to fold to her over-bet. There's really no reason for her to fear the turn will be checked through by any hands that would call her bet, so she can just check-call and go for a check-raise on the river. There's actually a risk one or both opponents will fold some strong hands, including weak flushes, that would have bet had she just checked the turn. On the river, her jam is definitely folding out all non-nut flushes. She can only get called by nut flushes and boats, and unless she turned quads, most or all of her boats will be weaker than the boats her opponents will have. They're going to have QQ/99 more, whereas she's going to have more Q5/95/52.
5. If we give her credit for mis-playing hands that beat us, we should also give her credit for mis-playing hands we beat. The way this was played, I think she's got a lot more worse flushes than boats or quad combos. The key inflection point was the 5h on the turn. Her turn donk is repping 55, trip 5's, or a worse flush for value. Hard to think she'd be in there with 52 the way this was played (would she limp-flat pre and check-call flop with 52?). There's only one combo of 55, and we have to think she'd donk-lead or check-raise flop with a set on this wet board, or continue to slow-play after improving to quads. That really just leaves trips or a weaker flush as her most likely holdings here.
@@brianpotter2812 Trip 5's is a big hand. So is a flush. She's definitely not "bluffing" here, but she could easily be over-playing a hand worse than the nut flush. Every possible flush draw is either a combo draw or flush-draw with back-door straight draw on the flop, and about half are K-high or J-high flushes. It's just a single-raised pot, and hero didn't c-bet or raise flop, so she could have K-high, J-high, or 8-high flushes here, and think she's good on the turn, then just decide to go with it on the river, and hope she gets called by worse, somehow.
I would've called in that spot since 2 pairs and sets are raising the flop
Agreed. This is bottom pair that turned trips and is just going with it, or a weaker flush.
Most low stakes players slow play sets and top two pair on the flop so I wouldn't be surprised if she had 99. if she is playing every hand than Q5 is possible. But when you see a player just call with everything including AA and then you see them Betting, I've been in a pretty similar situation not long ago and I folded 3rd nuts to a lady who ONLY bet when she had the absolute nuts. But any other situation I'm calling here.
@@danielmeuler2877 I actually think bad recs playing low stakes feel like check-raising the flop with sets and 2P is somehow mandatory. They all seem x/r-crazy, especially on wet flops. That said, I agree with you that it's scary when the passive player suddenly wants to start shoveling money into the pot on a nut-changing card. Then again, the way caller described her, it sounds like she plays strong hands passively, so this hyper-aggressive line seems inconsistent with her previous play.
I started to wonder if she might have played 55 this way, but I'd think she would have shown it if she had quads, unless she was embarrassed that she over-played it. She obviously improved on the turn, so it seems like she either turned trips (or a boat, or quads) or turned a worse flush. Hard to think about what boats she'd have on the turn. Maybe 99 that slow-played flop. Maybe Q5 or 95. Maybe she somehow got in there with 52 and rivered the boat, as unlikely as that seems.
But if we're giving here all the boats and quad combos, I think we also have to give her all the flush combos. She could have combo draws on the flop with KJ/J8/87/86/76, and might even be getting in there as wide as 43s. With the post-flop line hero took as the PFR, she might think he's calling flop and turn with all his TT/JJ combos and worse flush draws (assuming she has the K or J of hearts).
@@1vailchris I agree, Check Raise is the go to move of the Rec player. And also if she had Quads, she would have shown them. Also if it was a Big Bluff, she would have shown it.
@@danielmeuler2877 Agreed. A lot of people in the comments seem to think any worse hand is a bluff here, and she's never bluffing. But she could have a lot of worse hands that she could be playing this way for value, not as bluffs. She could have trip 5's or a worse flush, and play it this way. She's not "bluffing" if she thinks she's best. She's just value-owning herself.
Bart mentioned his preference in cbetting AhTh over like Ah3h here bc it could pick up additional equity and maybe that is correct in multiway pots. However I thought I would point out that in most spots it seems the solver prefers taking aggressive actions with the FD with the lower kickers and plays the bigger kickers more passively. Think its mainly bc the field can have KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h and so on when you have the Ah3h but not the AhTh. In other words FD over FD.
Tough call, Tough fold. Save money when you don't know what to do, tend towards folding.
I’ve seen fish still jam a small flush on the river because they don’t know what to do. Married to their hand and don’t want to check and face a bet.
Easy called. IF she has a set or 2 pairs she will check raise on the folp. I put her Kh Q.
I’m pretty confident the caller made a good fold on this one. Especially given that this lady limp called aces pre and checked it down. She doesn’t seem like the type to go out of her way to bluff or even bet without a non-nutted hand if she checked down aces. It makes it an easier fold if she has every boat in her range from QQ to 25 because she’s limp calling any 2 suited cards and apparently hands as good as AA too. MAYBE she has some random 5 or the K high flush and just didn’t know what to do on the river, but I think boats make up a way bigger part of her range when a passive player all of a sudden comes out swinging like this. Also when she won’t tell the table her hand, I think it could be a sign she’s embarrassed her opponent made a good fold and didn’t get value
This is one of those calls where the competency of the villain magically changes mid hand based on where our fear level is. Why not just thumbnail this one monsters under the bed. We actually discuss whether she sees the 4th heart but not the paired board based on her skill level...why? She literally played this like a flush draw on the flop then bet it like a hit flush. Here's where her magic bullet skill level came into play again, she doesn't bet or raise her monster flop QQ or Q5 but now the passive player loves the turn bet. It's a call on the river only because of the villain you described.
Bro you're a savage!
But, yeah, the logic here isn't consistent, not hers, and not a lot of people in the comments. "But she slow-played aces!" Yeah, maybe she did. So why is she suddenly shifting gears and fast-playing her boat or better on the turn and river, after slow-playing on the flop? What is this limp-flat-check-call-donk overbet-jam line, from a terrible rec, if not a spew with a worse flush or even just trip 5's?
Hero actually played this one perfectly until the river. He's the one who slow-played by not c-betting flop or raising turn with the nut flush. His hand is so under-repped. She's not good enough to give him credit for having the nut flush on the turn. We have to call the river when we play the nut flush draw this way.
Yep. Bart, for as good as he usually is, never seems to understand how "maniac" and "bad rec" players actually think in a hand, or rather, *don't* think, lol. It's just silly when he's talking about how no one would be crazy enough to value-bet a weak flush on this river when that is precisely how those player types actually play.
Before the reveal 52s makes most sense to me
She didn't have a boat. A worse flush or A5 unsuited or K5 hearts. Folded winning hand
I don't care what anyone else says, this is a SNAP call. She should never, ever have a set after check-calling the flop. Likewise, would she really check-call with Q5 on the flop? Highly unlikely. So that only leaves 4 combos of 95s or 52s as hands that beat us... which is also unlikely. 95s miiiiiight check-call the flop, but doubtful. And would 52 really lead the turn for full pot? Also doubtful. This clearly looks like a flush, most likely king-high. There are plenty of flush combos available even though hero holds 2 hearts, and we shouldn't rule out K5 or J5 with a heart as well. Given the player type (~90% VPIP, super stuck, fishy play), we should absolutely expect small flushes to overplay by jamming river.
So 4 value combos that beat us, and literally dozens of smaller flushes panic-betting the river despite getting hosed. Getting >2:1 on a call this is an absolutely horrendous fold. In fact, hero's comment about leaving after this hand and "racking up the win" despite there being a mega-fish dumping thousands of dollars at the table further confirms he's just scared to lose. Terrible, terrible fold.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
The key here is whether V tends to overvalue her hands (not whether she is wide). If I don't have that info, I'm folding even turn. If she overvalues her hand, then calling river is a must.
The caller should've known that info: How did she get stacked often?? Did she make calls with overvaluing hands? Or, she overbet non-nutted hands? My speculation tells me she overvalued her hands often (I don't think one gets stacked often by bad beats). So: it's a call on river.
Just check/call flop with a set or two pair… then lead full pot with a full house or quads??
Go from trapping with a hand that could use protection, to leading huge when they dont have much to worry about?
I dunno.. feels a lot more like Kx of Hearts here…
Being that she's limping pre and check calling with AA multiway, it's not really out of the realm of possibility she would just call the flop with bottom 2.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
Does a full house really lead with an over-bet on the turn ?
No, not on this flop/turn. A boat or quads on the turn was a slow-played set or 2P. How do we give her credit for slow-playing those hands on the flop, with 3 opponents still left to act behind her, then suddenly changing gears when she boats up on the turn, when the turn also completes all her opponents' flush draws? Her opponents are either going to do the betting for her, or fold to this aggression. It doesn't make sense for her to slow-play on this insanely wet flop in a multi-way pot, then fast-play a monster when she improves on this specific nut-changing card. If she's trapping on the flop, and boats up on the turn, she'd wait until the river to spring the trap, rather than risk her opponents folding to this insane donk-lead. Her line is repping a worse flush or turned trips with 52 that catches a miracle 2 to boat up on the river.
@@1vailchris yah that’s my thoughts. Or maybe A5 that spazzes out lol
@@mattfox5933 She could easily have trip 5's the way this was played, even with the river shove.
Seems like a solid fold, a player who checks down with AA and never bets it isn't pumping the turn and river with a K high flush for value... Most likely has her full house, or that is one epic bluff with what?? JT?
Regardless of the villain’s lack of bluffs, she shows all the signs of being a player to overestimate the strength of her hand.
With how wide she plays, even something like KQ with Kh or QJ with Jh is possible, or even any queen with a heart and she doesn’t know what to do on the river so she just bombs.
Same with just a bare 5. No clue what to do on river so she just bombs.
With her history, she was likely to bet out or check raise with Q5 or 95 on flop. This is absolutely a call here. If she has it she has it. Only boat I’m expecting is 52.
I find it so hard to fold to these kind of players.
I agree 100 💯 100 percent.. I would of called ...
Against these bad-recs, I tend to divide the marginal hands in my range into hands that will over-fold and hands that will over-call. It's almost as simple as asking myself, "is my hand in the top or bottom half of my range here?" We can over-fold a lot of our marginal hands because these players will find a way to give us their money when we're in a better spot.
Here, this has to be a call. Hero isn't slow-playing QQ/99/55 on this flop after the BTN stabs and V calls, so the nut flush is literally the best hand he'll ever have here. V can have some oddly-played boats or quads, but she's going to have a ton more badly-played worse flushes.
hard but good fold👍, feels like lady got excited on a turn and bet full house or even quads. and when she didnt show at the end she sure knew there was 4 card of same suit on board. Also she earlier slowplayed AA and most lose players won't be doing that. or she is a total beginner and you never know😂.
Exactly. all these people saying "oh, but she's been stacked several times" is because she's a CALL STATION. When they switch gears and get aggressive it's the nuts or the effective nuts every time.
It's a terrible fold, the way this was played. What full-house or better does she have, that wants to fast-play on this turn, but didn't want to fast-play on the flop? What rivered boats does she have that are limp-flatting UTG and calling the BTN's flop bet with 3 opponents still left to act behind her? Hero's hand is insanely under-repped. She has way more combos we beat than combos that beat us.
I could see her playing Kh9x here this way. She has nothing pre-flop, flops middle pair and back door hearts. Makes two pair on the turn with a boat/flush draw and decides to over bet pot to fold out low flushes that might have already gotten there and/or a Q. She wouldn't want to show at the end because it's not a total bluff, but she also only had a hand that was probably only winning with a shove.
She'd have to be super-terrible to play Kh9x that way. She's losing to over-pairs, better 2P (Q9/A9), and slow-played sets. It's unlikely anyone is folding any flush on the turn, especially if the hero was checking a flush draw or the BTN was betting a flush draw, either or both of which seem pretty likely on the flop. Random / weak Qx hands might fold, and worse 9x might fold, but it's extremely ambitious to turn bottom two pair into a bluff, to get folds from flushes on the turn. I doubt many players are folding 5x on the turn, when they have 10 outs to make a boat on the river. It isn't even a big over-bet, $425 into $375. That's just over pot, small enough to make me wonder if she knew she was over-betting. If she's trying to fold out a better hand, she should go at least 1/3 over pot, like $500, or more. Kh9x has too much equity to turn it into a bluff. We can just check-call turn and hope to improve on the river, or if not, that it'll go check-check on turn, and we can bet river (or check-call a bet on turn, and hope the river goes check-check, because we're not check-calling 3 streets with Kh9x).
@@1vailchris I'm not implying she played the hand well. Also, this is someone who flats AA and plays high VPIP, so Kh9x isn't out of her range.
@@lopardi K9 is in her range, sure, maybe. But the logic you assigned to her doesn't make a whole lot of sense, even for a player who plays AA passively, but will go to war when she actually has a hand. Think about the gear-changes in this hand, with Kh9x - she limp-flats UTG pre, flats the flop with middle pair and a couple back-door draws to non-nut hands, with 3 opponents left to act behind her, any of whom might be planning a check-raise, blasts off on the turn with a hand that doesn't beat much of anything either of her two remaining opponents can have that will call, then jams the river after getting called by the PFR, who can have all the boats and better flushes in his range, but is just going to fold every hand she beats, and may only fold out one hand that beats her. One or two of those decisions might seem reasonable at the time it was made, but in sequence, the logic isn't really all that consistent: she must know she's probably behind when she limp-flats pre, she's probably behind when she check-calls on flop, she's probably behind when she donk-leads on the turn, she's probably ahead but might still be behind when she jams on the river, when she's more likely to get value if she checks and hero bluffs or value-bets a worse hand than when she bets and gets snapped off by a better hand.
Kh9x is possible, but we can give her every flush and trip 5's combo without having to assign her some crazy logic that doesn't make much if any sense. If we're going to assign her that sort of logic, then Kh9x is no more or less likely than a lot of equally random hands that could also be played this way, using similarly inconsistent logic. She might have KhQx, or Kh5x, or 52s no heart, or A5o no heart, or any pocket pair with a heart - what hands are NOT in her range, if she plays Kh9x this way?
Caller hasn't shown much strength with his line and most recs love to trap and rarely donk bomb a boat+ on the turn. I would call expecting some sort of spazz like a 5 or a lower flush. Maybe fold if the rec is loose passive enough to limp call QQ and 99 pf as well as vipping Q5o and 95o.
I was thinking the same at first, this has to be trips or a worse flush, but thinking about it more, I would want to have some more history on this V, to know if she ever donk-leads or check-raises flops, if she was the aggressor or the caller when she had a big hand, etc. Hard to fold here no matter what, but it's not impossible that she slow-played the flop and then over-played turn and river for some bizarre reason only she knows.
I'm focusing on 4th st betting 425 into 2 *competent* players 🤔 IMO she had Kh or a 5. 2nd whole card irrelevant bc she's borderline maniac in stuck mode. I'd call, but the correct play is probably fold?
I thought for sure she had a K high flush but the way the hand ended makes me think it was a boat. The hero exposed his hand. Most recreational players can't resist showing when they got someone to fold a better hand. If his nut flush was good, I think she would have showed.
Had the exact same thought. People love to show a “bluff” in this spot even if they didn’t really think they were bluffing.
I think she had 5x suited not putting you on a flush and turned her hand into a bluff on the river only ting that makes sense , I doubt she had a boat .
If you're going to call turn, you have to be prepared to call a river jam.
Only on blank rivers though. The 4th heart isn't a blank or your opponents shouldn't treat it as if it doesn't change anything.
It was implied if he made his flush. But in his spot, I'm never folding if a heart or Ace hits against that type of player. Quads or a boat, take my $$$... if they stay, I'll get it back if someone else doesn't beat me to it.
@@herts9999 Agree. The way hero played this, the nut flush is the best hand he'll have on the river. V might have some oddly-played boats or even quads, but she'll have a ton more worse flushes in her range.
I have 4 minutes left in the video. I got to the river with no reveal. Bart seems to lean towards a fold. I am calling river if I were hero. By the way the caller describes the villain’s archetype; she can easily be overvaluing a King High flush.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
5 with the Kh, almost positive.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info I don't use Telegram and to be honest it sounds fishy, thanks anyway.
You guys need to remember this is a Passive table. If people are betting big or all in on river they have it a lot of the times. Also I think if he showed his cards and she had a bluff 100% I would show I bluffed him off that hand. Just my opinion
I think I somehow missed this one when it was new. It's a very tough decision. On the one hand, I want to "play the player", in which case it's a must call. On the other hand, as played we cannot beat any competent player here. This special villain who is playing very loose & losing enough to be re-buying is just too crazy for me to fold the nut flush to. A bad player can easily have king high flushes here. But how competent is she? If she made a boat on the turn, then she has no hearts. Why does she donk bet 425 into 375 on turn first to act, when it's so likely someone just hit a flush? At the end of the day I think hero should have called here. This villain seems crazy enough & bad enough that I just cannot make huge laydowns. Now if I thought the villain was a good player, then I know I cannot beat any value. But what hand does a good player take this line with & beat hero's nut flush? And if she is playing ATC here then how many KXhh combo's does she have? How often is this Kh5x? Seems like she could easily play that hand like this.
Sometimes I think it's harder to play against bad-loose players than highly competent ones. Because it's so hard to determine what they're thinking and/or make sense of their actions given certain board textures.
This is a spot where you have to bet the flop. Bart alluded to it, but this is a must bet, as it is the most profitable line.
$50 on the flop is going to be called by many, and no matter what people do, you are happy. If they call great, if they fold great, if the raise great. They reason is because you don't have reverse implied odds. If the flush, or back door straight, comes in, you are good. Lower flushes it's not a 100% bet.
Imagine if all players were all in on the flop, so the pot was around $9,000, you would jump for joy calling the all ins with your equity and odds. It would be one of the most profitable spots you'd ever see.
So, you don't mind callers or raises.
Agreed! I def think I should've bet flop.
Most of the time, we can c-bet this flop, because we can rep top pair or better as the PFR. But in super-loose/passive games, I don't mind checking with more aggro players behind us in multi-way pots. We don't want to c-bet flop, get raised by the BTN, and have 1 or more players call in front of us. We'll be in no-man's land. I think we can take a mixed strategy of c-betting sometimes, and checking sometimes. But if we do check, especially from OOP, we have to be prepared to put in some check-raises with our high-equity draws. Here, in MP with 2 V's in front and 2 behind, going for a check-raise with hero's hand might be a bit too fancy, and could backfire if the BTN 3B's over our x/r, or calls with Q5 and boats up on the turn.
nice hand
The way callers have been running into weird stuff lately, I presume that if he calls, she flips over KKh. The turn lead could just be from kings up. He already saw her limp call with AA. Three other things:
1. On the flop, I was thinking of value betting it like LHE before you mentioned that. I'd do it if I thought I might get 4, 5, or 6 callers, and the chance of getting blown off my hand wasn't high. As always, the question is bet sizing. In LHE, at 6-way $150 pot raised once preflop, the flop bet would be $12.50, but here I think I'd make if $40. It's a risky move only if you're monkey in the middle between to big hands. It might be considered a cheap way of "seeing where you're at" if you do get blown off by a raise and 3-bet.
2. The river card was by far not the worst card. Pairing the board again, especially tripping the 5, would be worse.
3. On the turn, hero's hand becomes capped, it is clear to villain that hero did not fill up, and the call also rules out 22. So on the river, with the Kh, all she has to worry about is the Ah, while knowing that Ah has to believe she is full. Putting hero into a tough spot gives her fold equity against the absolute only hand she can lose to. On the other hand, to have Kh, it almost has to be Kh8h or worse, or KK, because if she flopped a straight flush draw, the flop play would very likely be different.
OMG, so many typos, did I really write this? I meant 4/5/6 ways to the turn; at=a; to=two; etc. Getting old sucks, now while typing stuff that is buffered while my fingers catch up with my brain, "sounds like" errors happen more often. I think this is the first time it's extended as far as typing the wrong to/two/too. But having to proofread everything I type, sucks too. I guess it's time to get used to that.
Never folding in that spot against a reckless live player.
Not reckless...she's a call station and never raised her AA preflop. I see a lot of old people/regs do this because they're shy, but they sure as hell know how to bet the nuts!
@@brianpotter2812 they also frequently over-value their non-nut hands. Her range has way more hands we beat than hands that beat us here.
Flop is ALWAYS a bet and NEVER a check-raise for me! With the nut flush draw you want as many players in the hand as possible.
Of course and saying he didn't because a competent button player he feared made the bet is so backwards. Button bets there with A9 and sometimes air. You aren't raising thinking you are ahead of the button, you know you aren't but it fattens the pot even drawing in other non nut flush draws like the villain who far more than likely had a flush. The analysis here is pretty much horrible every street.
You aren’t going to get 4 people allin on this board. Check raise to build the pot and stack the fish, that’s your target.
@@ticenits1926 Very good line if you don't want to make money!
This is Texas, right? Call.
I call and rebuy pissed when she has 95s
I wish we got to see what she had, not that it matters too much. Crazy loose players are so hard to play against, watching them lose their stack time and again and the one time you make a great hand they’ve run into some totally random monster. I’d probably fold too, they can’t be over valuing with a four flush on board surely?
Idk bro I'm getting a really strong quad 5s from this hand
@Click._Profile_.for_more_infowhy no subscribers ?
The reason why I'm mad we didn't get the reveal is because I play there and know who that woman is and I want to know as much as possible in terms of how she plays. And FYI the vpip Is higher than 90% lol
Wide players + big river bets in multi way pots = the goods.
I don’t think she had a full house her worst case scenario after hero reveals the nut flush is him folding out and not getting value from that. Her saying she would never reveal means she knows she got lucky that the hero folded to her in my opinion.
What I’m getting is that most of the time, jamming against these overthinking callers gets you the win.
Kh5x overplayed?
Making the call here. It seems like a i don't know what to do shove.
god I miss Dallas poker. So bad
Im one of those guys thats wants to know at the end....
so this is one of those spots where i feel like bart is just a bit out of touch with the reality that is live low limit poker. you simply cannot rule out a full house on the turn based on the way she played the flop. yes, no reasonable player could play a hand this way and show up with a full house on the turn. but this lady was described as extremely loose passive even in multiway pots with AA pf. if she hasnt shown aggression all night and all of a sudden donk leads a turn when the board pairs she absolutely could (maybe even probably does) have a full house or even quads. no way am i ruling that out. bart, I PROMISE YOU there is a small subsection of people out there at the smallest games playing like this.
river is tricky. its one of those you kinda had to be there spots. she got stacked a bunch. was she tilted? was she gambling like crazy to try to get it back? or was she in a reasonable headspace? none of what the caller said gave off any indications she was titled or playing wildly. actually the opposite. also, like bart said, did she even see the 4th heart? is she capable of reading the board always? is she a brand new player who might not grasp hand strength on different board textures? this is a tough one. go with your gut.
havent gotten to any of the comments yet, but i guarantee there will be tons of 'she could have anything/its low stakes/im never folding' type comments. the biggest mistake i see in reading low limit opponents on here is that people confuse loose with crazy. yes when the hand starts the loosest low limit players could have J4s, 87, could have cold called a 3bet with A8, etc but when they aggress, especially on later streets and/or for big money, they 100% of the time have it. i would actually say that a lot of the loosest low limit players ive encountered kinda have that quality. anyway, super interesting hand.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
Giving her too much credit
She had 5 5, quads! Great fold!!
That's my read on how she played. From the her description she would definitely play pocket 5's UTG. Slow play her flop sets, starts betting after the turn.
Comments help. You’re welcome
There are any number of hands that Hero loses to here, the fold certainly seems like the best and only option vs a 90%VPIPing maniac leading into you when bluffs are so unlikely.
Bart saying maybe you could call because you are getting 2-1. I think that’s nuts. It is much stronger than 2-1 that this woman is not firing all in with just a K high flush.
@@MrJamberee A player with a 90% VPIP, who's already down at least 2 buy-ins, is absolutely capable (dare I say LIKELY) to be betting recklessly with just a K-high flush. Why are you treating a bad fish like Phil Ivey?
Against a 90% vpip fish I'm never folding here.
Enjoy being stacked then
@@brianpotter2812 Enjoy being scared money. As played, this is a call.
Tch social is a special place
@Click._Profile_.for_more_infowhy no subscribers ?
Im never folding lol. Its not even that big of a pot a few hundred bb's vs a total wildcard with the nut flush. You lose oh well now the fish is juiced up with chips and going to give them back and going to give me more action in the future bc she stacked me. That would be the way Id assess the spot
The woman is not likely betting a K high flush here. Fold.
I’m shoving turn 100% of the time. She’s always behind and always calling after that $425 bet…. I don’t get the logic of just calling turn and folding river when nothing changes vs a 90% vpip fish.
The river changes in that she's still showing max aggression even when the 4th heart comes out. If she had the flush on the turn bet, she'd most likely want to tone it down on the river. Therefore, she's now representing Just a boat. (but as a rec player, she could just be spazzing out not knowing what to do with mediocre flush)
@@jordanmason8296 yeah but she’s a fish. Just the fact she donk overbet turn means she’s not a thinking player. You can’t inject logic into these players thought patterns, they are simply clicking buttons. She’s almost certainly spaz betting the river as you said because fish like her simply don’t know what to do in spots like this.
Against this V, with her back-story, I like a turn jam here, too. She's calling with almost all her worse flushes, and probably with a lot of her turned trips. If she's stuck two buy-ins already, she probably would have donk-led or check-raised flop with 2P or a set, so I can't give her credit for turning a boat. If she just turned trips with 5x, her only boat on the river is 52. If she got there with 52, she's just getting my money.
I wonder if she even realized she was over-betting pot on the turn. It's not that big an over-bet, $425 into $375. She doesn't sound like the type of player who understands polarizing with big over-bets, certainly not enough to think she'd deliberately make a SLIGHT over-bet for some strategic reason. I'd expect bad recs to make a standard size bet, or go ridiculously huge if they're going to over-bet.
the problem with the turn jam is that the player on the button has still to act, and he's the one that bet flop. That was my thinking at least. @@1vailchris
There's simply no real chance a terrible rec is leading for more than pot when she turns a boat. They slow play too much, not too little, and even terrible players know it's missing tons of value to do something that strong with such a strong hand. Hero is always good here.
And no way she flopped 2P or a set and didn't check raise.
You idiots werent listening to the caller. This lady is ULTRA PASSIVE. Flat called Aces all the way down with 0 agression. This is the type of player that waits for something SUPER NUTTED before betting, not the kind of person that check raises. The reason she doesnt raise with aces is because she waits for board run outs and realizes one pair is just a pair and if her opponents play like her, they can have any two cards. When the callers hand occurs, and she leads on the turn, CLEARLY she has a boat OR better (Quads). She would never do this with a non nut hand because shes the most face up player in the world.
God you people are so dumb sometimes.
Kh5x makes the most sense.
@@PatrickA1 If we think she's limp-flatting pre with K5o from UTG and calling the BTN's flop bet with 5 opponents behind her, with just bottom pair and no real high-equity draw, I don't see how we can ever fold the river. She could have every worse flush, every 5x suited, and every 5x offsuit with some big heart in her range.
Why would you assume anything she does makes any sense?
I would’ve called lol
The result doesn't matter, and 90% of the time I don't care if the caller doesn't know if the player had it or not, but I'm so disappointed this time. I so wanted a final reveal. 🙂
@Click_Profile._for_more_infowhy no subscribers ?
i was that lady. I had j10 spades
You had a 95% VPIP and you watch CLP? You must not have learned much from Bart
@@kevinkennedy5076 I had blockers
Hormone blockers @@ninjap323
Well played. Nice hand.
@@kevinkennedy5076 learn what? He advised fold.
Hero exposed his hand and got no emotion...I'd say that was a good fold although we all wanted to see the showdown.
Hero didn't walk away busted...that's a win.
See, I actually think the opposite. If she had the nuts and was hoping to get paid, she might have shown some disappointment that he folded the nut flush. I know I often can't help having some reaction when my opponent makes an amazing fold. But if she was bluffing or just over-valuing a worse hand, and realized how bad her play was, she might not want to give anything away with her reaction.
@@1vailchris Exactly what I thought too...
QQ for sure 😂
Hard to believe all the comments saying this was a good fold. Her line isn't consistent with a boat or quads. It is consistent with worse flushes, and insanely over-played trips. She has way more worse hands in her range than better hands. She's just over-playing whatever she has here.
it's not hard at all (to believe). (Majority) People here tend to go along with Bart's opinion.
.
I'd called river against her type of player. (She's getting stacked often!!). Obviously, person who wants to have fun, not worrying about the money.
TCH is not real poker. It's bingo
I can almost guantee that she had pocket queens. Having played with *ALOT* of calling stations. They don't bluff, they don't have a three bettting range, they love to trap if they make trips on the flop. This is a classic play of a calling station - seen it tons of times - lost to it tons of times also.
Not gonna lie, I'm just here for the thumbnail.
I fold here. If that 4th heart doesn't scare her your probably no good there.
She had a quads. Bottom set on flop, nervous about potential flush. Hit quads, and overbet. When hero calls, she knows he’s flushed. She bets max.
Good lay down.
Clueless players will stack off here all day with a King High flush. Absolutely a call. Your big mistake is thinking players like this think logically at poker - they don’t.
Just fold turn. They always have it.
Against someone playing a 95% VPIP? Nit.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj No, against someone super-passive who suddenly makes a huge donk bet. Their VPIP is irrelevant.
@@Mathemagical55 She has it on the turn? Has what? A boat? So you think she slow-played the flop with 2P or a set, but then decides to change gears and go warp speed with a boat on the turn, donk-leading into two opponents, one of whom is the pre-flop raiser who check-called flop, and the other is the BTN who took the betting lead on the flop? She's going to fast-play a boat on this board, when one or the other of her opponents is likely to bet, but will fold all their over-pairs and a lot of their weaker hands?
The caller/hero here is in the comments. He said she went broke in an earlier hand, fast-playing A7 on a board of 773, losing to 33. She fast-plays top trips in that hand, but she's going to slow-play a flopped set or 2P here, then suddenly decide to fast-play a monster on the turn? It makes no sense. She either turned trips and is over-playing it, or got there with 52 of some other suit, or she's got a worse flush. The way hero played his hand, she's got a lot more worse flushes than boats here.
My guess is hero got outplayed. She knows you don't have a boat, and she knows you have to fold any non-ace flush. Plus she knows you might fold the ace. She played the hand really well, but this has to be a call.
I really don’t understand why the 2H is a bad card.
Because now she is showing that even if hero only had A of hearts she's not scared of a flush making the boat more likely
@@jwr3289 A good player would realize this. A bad player might not. A bad player might think the 4th heart makes it harder for their opponents to have a flush, because there's one less heart they could have in their hand. They're not thinking about what hands they can get value from or what hands they beat. They're just thinking that their flush is the nuts. Either way, flush-over-flush doesn't happen that often, so a lot of bad players are just going to go with whatever flush they have. Here, she could have a lot of combo-draws on the flop, including a couple K-high and J-high combos - KJ/J8. K-high and J-high flushes are hard for a lot of players to lay down, even good players. The way this was played, hero could have some worse flushes, and it's not impossible that she thought he would have c-bet flop as the PFR or raised the turn with all his nut flush draws.
She had K of hearts and A of spades
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
25 is wayyyyy too small in that game with 2 limps
CLP Caller here: I wish I would have small bet the flop. I wish I called the river just to know what she had one way or the other...I felt like she slow played the flop based on how she slow played AA previously in the session. I felt like she boated on the turn and knew she'd get paid by flushes. Oh well. I hope I see her again at TCH and maybe she'll tell me what she had so I can sleep at night lol
no, she was passive post flop. She limp called AA pre. and check called all the way down with said AA. @@David-rq1xj
Good on you for calling it in and commenting here. I've been thinking about this one since Bart posted it up, and wondering if you noticed anything about her tendencies from other pots she played. For instance - had she ever donk-led flop or turn before, and if so, what sort of hands did she show (if she showed)? Did she ever check-raise with flopped sets or 2P on wet boards, or did she also play those passively? In the big pots she played, the ones where you said she had a real hand, was she the aggressor or the caller? Having that background info might have helped you find the call or feel better about the fold.
The way this was played, I think I'd probably call. My thinking is that if she's going to over-play her strong hands on turn or river, she'd also likely over-play them on the flop. So if she flopped a set or 2P on this wet board, I'd expect her to donk-lead or go for the x/r. Her sudden over-bet donk on the turn made me think she either had 5x and turned trips, or turned a weaker flush. The all-in on the river makes me think it was the latter. She turned a flush, and decided she was just going with it once you called turn, no matter what the river card was.
If she had 55, she probably would have shown it, because people like to show quads. If she had QQ or 99, she probably would have shown it, to put the rest of the table on notice not to bluff her, or call her light. She probably would have shown Q5 or 95, to prove that she's not jamming light. That really just leaves 52 for boats, which she might not have shown, because it's garbage and she knows she just got very lucky to spike a 3-outer, and worse flushes, which she might not have shown out of embarrassment that she made such a horrible river play.
I'm not buying that she flopped 2P or a set and slow-played it, then decided to go hyper-aggressive on turn. If she got there with 52, she's getting my money. This just seems like a bad rec spew with a worse flush, and we should be happy to call.
Thanks for your feedback! After much thought, I wish I would've called. I am moving up in stakes, and I have about 15 BI for this game, so protecting my roll as it was towards the end of my session played a factor as well. The only real reads I had was that she A) played 90% B) She limp called a lot....even with AA with zero aggression preflop/flop/turn/river. C) The one hand she showed aggression was a 773 board. She had A7, someone had 33 and she got stacked.
I had so many counter points to calling, then I also had a lot of counter points to folding.
The reason for folding was more on the player profile side of the equation. Female, VPIP high, big bets on the river are usually value, etc....
Reasons for calling were based on the way the hand played: She should check raise her sets and two pairs on the flop if she had a boat, etc.
Sorry for the long response! @@1vailchris
@@jordanmason8296take this piece of free advice for what it is ("free" is worth what one pays for it?)? LOL.
You may find it more profitable to view each hand in isolation, ignoring relative to 1st, 16th, or last of the session...?
The goal is to play each and every hand as optimally as you possibly can, regardless..
Example, I determine any randomization strategy Before a session starts...and stick with it except for hyper exploitive hand situations, same with the length of session...
Then, from first hand to very last, I put 100% of my concentration on making the best decisions & plays I can...
It's been a +Ev strategy for me..👍
@@jordanmason8296 Your response isn't as long as some of mine. No worries. I don't necessarily hate your fold here. One thing I try to keep in mind when playing against bad recs is that we don't want to give them our money by making hero calls when they bet. It's okay to let them bluff us or over-value a worse hand once in a while, because we can easily find better spots, when we know for certain we're way ahead. Their bluffs tend to be nonsensical, and their over-plays won't always happen when we have a hand we don't want to fold, so we don't need to hero-call much. When the bad rec is tilted after getting stacked twice, it doesn't necessarily mean they're bluffing off all their money in a big pot. I think it's more common to see them play too many pots, and go broke a little at a time, hoping to make a monster hand they can take to war. They're often desperate to get value for their real hands, which leads to them over-playing those hands.
As for your reads - you're giving me nightmares with the 773 board. I just got stacked with Kd7d on a flop of 7h3h7c. I played it aggressively, jamming the 2c turn into 2 opponents - one with 7s6s, and the other on a flush draw. The flush draw got there on the river. The thing you'd want to pay attention to with that A7 hand is the action - was there any way she could have gotten away from her hand? It's hard to get away from top trips (I should know), but that one hand might be enough to push you towards a call in your spot - she had a strong hand, and she went with it, even knowing she didn't have the absolute nuts. Maybe she's just like a lot of us - if we're beat, so be it, but we're never laying down the 2nd or 3rd nuts (or in my case with K7, the 6th nuts).
As for your reasoning - I don't disagree with any of it, except that a big bet could be for value, not a bluff, and still be a worse hand. If she's VPIPing 90%, she has a ton of flush combos in her range, most of which are combo-draws on the flop, and half of which are K-high or J-high, which are hands a lot of players are just going to go with, especially after you check-back flop as the PFR, and just flat the turn, when you might be c-betting the flop with your nut-flush draws, or raising turn with your nut flushes when she donk-leads. I think she's donk-leading or check-raising flop with 2P or better, so the 5h turn seems more likely to make her a flush than a boat or quads. It seems crazy for her to jam river on the 4th heart, but there again, she's stuck two buy-ins, she's desperate to get un-stuck, and women often feel like the male players try to push them around, so they will sometimes push back without the nuts. This could be a K- or J-high flush praying you call with the J- or T-high flush.
If she had quads she would shown
What she's saying is "I don't care about your bleeping Ace of Hearts." What matters is whether you believe her.
Villain overplaying Kh 5x??
If it was a bluff she would've showed.
@Click._Profile_.for_more_info why did you start your account 5 minutes ago ?
Bluff
How true that CLP subscribers hate it when they don't get their happy ending with a villain's reveal.
She could have had 5 2 suited
This is a call 💯....so sorry...if she has qq so be it