3rd Parties Helping Trump Win the 2024 Election (Latest Poll Averages)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 พ.ค. 2024
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling higher than any other third party candidate since 1996. But how does his candidacy impact Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump in the race to 270 electoral votes on the 2024 presidential map?
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I don't Care if Trump wins. I Want Biden to Lose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I want either RFK or Trump to win. Two people who want what’s best for the country.
I can’t figure out who the 41.1% who is for Biden. Are they nuts?
@@Fatbaddie24 RFK can't talk well,Trump is better and he promised to start deportations on day 1
Same!
@@Fatbaddie24 Exactly!
I absolutely hate the 2016 Jill Stein argument. The Green Party is a national party just like the Libertarian Party. So when people say “well if Stein hadn’t taken those votes Clinton would have won” you can say the same thing about Johnson in the Libertarian Party. Because people that vote Libertarian would obviously vote Republican if they only had the two parties to choose from. It’s all another way to try and avoid pointing out exactly how unpopular Clinton was/is. THAT is why she lost. Not because of Stein.
Yeah, someone could easily make the argument that if people disliked the two main candidates enough to vote for someone at 1% support, they'd likely just sit out if Stein wasn't on the ballot.
correct..or they would never shown up to vote at all...which may happen again.
The 2016 election had a ton of really unusual things going on. A huge factor no one talks about was how Bernie literally won the primary based on the votes from registered democrats but the nomination went to Clinton because almost all of the super delegates went to her, implying that those votes cast didn't matter. This naturally made a lot of Bernie supporters upset, resulting in many of these otherwise safe democrat voters staying home or voting 3rd party, most likely for Jill Stein.
No one ever says stein voters would stay home if no other option... DNC is so entitled, everyone owes them their vote
Hillary lost because she ran a weak campaign with a message of “I deserve this.” Also, didn’t she spend the entire month of August in Martha’s Vineyard instead of campaigning in swing states?
If the abortion issue is as big as polling shows then RFK’s recent remarks will start pulling even more from Biden than Trump.
The most successful 3rd party in recent history got like 8% or something like that. And he dropped out. So everyone just voted for him anyway. It can be a massive swing, I'm not sure which camp will benefit though.
I find it incredible that a major political party is going into an election as if they were a single issue candidate.
@@elLooto it’s flawed logic but by most polls I’ve seen it’s the only topic Biden is over 50% on
I won't be surprised if they ditch B before long. They know his ratings are pathetic
So you're completely oblivious and deluded then?
Insults are not valid arguments.
Can they do that though?
@@ThePoliticalBulldog Why? It seems as if his party is not backing him up as usual. Throwing him to the wolves
@TheBlockerNator Apparently the ruling party can change the rules as they go
I wanna know who is getting polled. The Trump rallies sure don't show what the polls are saying.
Exactly my thoughts. This video is horse sh1t
Polls are usually landline. So... not that useful in the modern day, it's mostly focused on the older age groups. But some companies have been updating, so we are getting better random data.
I voted for Gary Johnson voting for RFK Jr. Have never been so involved and active in a candidate's campaign. You'll all be surprised how much support he really has. He's a great person and Presidential candidate regardless of the abortion stance. You can't base all his other great stuff off of just that in my opinion. The other two are not as intelligent or caring about the people instead of themselves. Trump only cares about himself Biden only cares about the party.
I loved Ron Paul but I was disheartened with how closely Gary Johnson resembled Bernie Sanders proposed policies. I think RFK Jr is certainly a good candidate but I think he chose poorly for his VP. I'm hoping that Trump wins the nomination and RFK gets an appointment to a position where he can change some of the things he fights for like food quality or vaccine studies
@@karnivore3708 Yeah I hear you I was thinking about it too. I personally feel like I can trust him whole heartedly until he proves me wrong.
Well what is his abortion stance? I'm for freedom so I only support pro choice up to 15 weeks
There are 43-44 non-swing states. If you live in one of these states or DC, there is absolutely no reason not to vote for your preferred candidate, whoever that is (RFK, Libertarian, Green, etc.). If Biden wins Florida or Texas, he almost certainly already won all his projected states and most swing states by a larger margin. Similarly, if Trump wins Minnesota or New Hampshire, he probably already won 5-7 of the swing states and already won the presidency.
I think people believe they are voting strategically and/or afraid of "wasting their vote." But they are not thinking long term, because their individual vote is close to meaningless in deciding this election between Trump and Biden but can help ensure ballot and debate access, as well as positive momentum for third parties in the future.
or you could just not vote at all, you basically might as well not vote for Trump or Biden because the country is screwed either way. The rest of government will destroy the country to blame Trump and Biden is intentionally destroying the country in such a way to make his donors rich.
Finally someone treats Kennedy seriously. He is a viable candidate! The first since Ross Perot. With more or less the same ideas. The US missed a great opportunity with Perot, I hope they won’t miss this one. Greetings from Brazil!
You repeatedly narrated numbers which didn't equal what you were showing.
Yeah, this isn't the first time either, wonder what's up with that.
Yeah this guy has an agenda…
Both Trump and RFK,Jr. will be guest speakers (on different days) at the upcoming Libertarian National Convention (platform & nominations/debate for Presidential ticket) in D.C., which will be open to the public, as both were invited and are aware of the spoiler effect and the significance of LP factor, but neither of them will be in the debates (RFK, Jr. is willing to debate Trump, but Trump isn't, so a debate between them and/or with our LP candidate won't occur!).
TRUMP 2024!
A vote for Biden is a vote for Trump!!!
@@RJDebeaudrug addict?
America needs Trump desperately
As a convicted felon? It’s not looking good for him in his hometown. If he is convicted and still wins, he is bound to face another impeachment.
@@davidgmillsatty1900Who cares?
I would agree with you except that there is a much much much better choice, Bobby Kennedy!!!
Boomer for Bobby!!!
@@emmittmatthews8636well perhaps if you are a United States citizen then YOU!!!
In jail of of course 😮
Time for a third party..these two already had their time in office. #RFKJ2024
Were the 9 million imported voters accounted for? Or the deceased?
Abraham Lincoln in 1860 was a third-party candidate as the new Republican party was not recognized as a major party
Coalition party.
Not really, there were so many parties in 1860. It was a pretty even race honestly.
The only reason popularity and unpopularity are at historic levels is because everyone has their minds made up.
Everyone thinks the woke/progressive/liberals have gone to far. Even liberals think this!
The woke movement has crossed the line on their actions. So does MAGA Republicans
RFK jr is in it to win it and he will if you people pull your heads from your asses and look at who the best candidate really is
The best candidate is Trump.
Finally someone with a brain!
Stay in RFK JR you can do it take as many as you can
The notion of Stein taking the vote from Clinton is ridiculous. Those folks were VERY diverse on their views that seemed to align more with Libertarian beliefs than "Liberal" or in Clinton's case "leftist". Clinton was a horrible candidate and I don't put much into approval ratings as they apply to Trump. Approval ratings are an establishment type value and technically Trump NEVER had a remotely high approval rating despite changing the economic outlook, the market or retirement returns and not starting any wars. Approval rating might correlate with Biden because he is just horrible but look at it like this, Do you REALLY think that over 30% of the country thinks Biden is doing well in ANY aspect of national leadership?
Trump 2024!
I don't see why somebody would vote for Biden.
Have you not met Americans?
A lot of people are foolish and put feelings over who's better at the job.
Biden and dems have and always will win the popular vote
They aren't voting for Biden, they're voting against Trump Most likely because they're scared of him being president again.
This time around, yeah.
it would be historic if RFK won some electorial votes such as winning a couple states
Does this guy have like 10 different polling channels? I hear his same voice on all the others
Watch RFK Support go down the drain when November 🤣🤣
I predict RFK will get more popular vote than any third party candidate since Perot, but only barely - I predict he'll land somewhere around 3.5 to 4%
@@homestar92NYT says their polling shows half of Kennedy’s voters are ‘only Kennedy’ voters, not protest voters.
The reason third parties under-perform their polling mid election has to do with ballot access. Our fucked up system doesn't give ballot access to these parties by default. Instead, these parties are forced to "prove" they should have ballot access by meeting whatever arbitrary number of signature support a given state requires, with Democratic and Republican stronghold states (California and Indiana as examples) having notoriously difficult hurdles. Without ballot access, those voters who originally would have voted third party are then only left with two candidates on the ballot. Its rigged against the third parties. Your framing through out this whole video is so disingenuous. How much does the Democratic party pay you?
The Presidential Debate Commisiion also does everything they can to keep third parties from debating, and the news hardly covers them. On the bright side, voters under 65 are far more likely to disapprove of both major parties, so hopefully, things change as the years go on.
Why would you bring up Dr. Stein "taking" from Hillary but not Gary Johnson "taking" from Trump? Gary did better than Stein in Every state.
It's not clear how many libertarian voters wouldn't vote for Trump although I agree that you can't actually be a libertarian if you support a democrat. Democrats maybe for marijuana legalization though, which is allegedly a democrat position
I think the Green Party is closer to the Democratic Party than the Libertarian Party is to the Republican Party. The Greens and the Dems have very similar goals, most green voters would vote blue. But Libertarians and modern Republicans don’t always intersect. Modern republicans are usually for high military spending, for instance, which true libertarians tend to hate.
Shhhhhhhhh don't let this catch the attention of Joe, he probably doesn't even notice
True, but his people definitely do. Democrats are not dumb, like them or not.
@@davidfrankenberger4817 Well Democrats either don't know what they are voting for which is idiotic, or they know exactly what they vote for which is also idiotic.
@@davidfrankenberger4817 They either do or don't know what they are voting for both of which are arguably dumb.
@@davidfrankenberger4817They are dumb are you on meth?
@@N-L3incorrect.
I think RFK is going to out perform all projections. This is our chance to move away from the two parties. I believe more voters will wake up and vote for him than in previous elections
I think using Stein as a reason why Trump won in 2016 is ignoring Gary Johnson’s vote share as if he wasn’t in the race the Libertarians would’ve voted for Trump.
I'm really skeptical about Wisconsin.
Kennedy 24!
Really amazed by Stein's impact in 2016, I didn't realize she took THAT many votes in those key states... Stay in the race girl LOL
Ryan, always thought out and logical
Put down the crack pipe.
0:08 "Barring something extraordinary happening"...*cuts to Biden tripping on some stairs*...
The 2 part system is trash
We want more options
👍👍👍
Only plebes want this
@@t.f.7974 yes common people do want change!! Only sheep don’t!!
You have more options. You have 5 options.
You say this then don’t vote for 3rd party
I think either you or the polls, or both, are being conservative with Trumps numbers. I see him getting 300 electoral votes easy.
VOTE KENNEDY 2024
Robert is likable to Republicans than Democrats similar on how Tulsi Gabbard is now Likable to Republicans than Democrats Robert would take vote from Trump....
The polls disagree. Also RFK supports reparations and gun control.
@@geochonker9052polls doesn't amount to the whole population in a state
Not a chance. Every poll he's taking it away from brandon
@@brownwolf6280 That is a silly argument. Sure, polls can be wrong, but just because the entire state isn't polled doesn't mean it doesn't show the ideas of the general populous.
Exactly
Just know this, Long Island in New York is hard Red. I live there.
Alan Litchemen Keys to the White House would give this key to Trump if RFK JR gets more than 5% of the vote
The fact that Trump supposedly has such a low approval rating from the public goes to show you how soft/delicate and out of touch with reality we've become as a nation.
I still believe in Kennedy. Kennedy 2024
Trump 2024
Excellent analysis
Vote Blue no matter Who!!!!!!
Sounds culty..
Do the smart thing....don't vote at all...then it won't be your fault 👍👍👍👍👍
Great analysis
Very true
Trump 2024 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The general bonus which incumbents have compared to polls, as well as the fact that the loss of Kennedy support seems to align with the growth of Biden support, leads me to believe that the election will become noticeably more narrow than it appears months out. A few comments also lead me to suspect that a couple minor predictions could be tinged with a conservative perspective, although the general quality and accuracy is outstanding.
great analysis
The debates will have to be done via video link lmao
Polls are based on what
Worse Risk board game simulator ever....
I get Jill takes votes from Dems but shouldn’t most of libertarians vote share come from republicans? If that’s the case Reps lose more to third parties.
Peruvians with Trump
Can you do house and senate
Very detailed analysis.
RFK 2024!!!
Much better use of time in this video than some of you recent ones!
It is easy to second guess what would have happened in the past in a close race where third party candidates collectively received more votes than the difference between the two major party candidates but I think it is highly speculative. Those that voted third party each have their own reason for voting as they did and you simply cannot predict how they would have voted given no third party choice. They may not have voted at all for that matter.
So many people in the USA today think you’re better off now? Then you were 10 years ago 25 years ago? Losing your jobs and your homes. Minimum wages should be $18 an hour.
Raise minimum wage and inflation will just get worse. There’s really no reason for such a high minimum wage.
Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in decreasing order are Trump’s chances to flip
If RFK overperforms, it will hurt Trump. Unlike Perot, I don't believe he has enough of a national presence where that should be considered. It is still too early for any prediction to be nothing more than speculative. When we get to early August, then I think the numbers can be more predictive.
Great video. In regard to Michigan, I do agree that it’s the “bluest” of the 3 Rust Belt States, but given Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict and factoring in RFK Jr’s impact, I believe Trump will flip that state by a few 10 thousand votes. Once again, really enjoyed this video! Keep it up.
I never knew the Western states tended to have more support for third parties. That’s interesting 😯 I wonder what that’s about 🤔
Gary Johnson had the same effect on Trump. He was worth a lot more votes.
I notice a pattern with 2000 and 2016. BOth had higher 3rd party votes then normal and both feature a president who lost the popular vote but won the EC
Since 1992, Republicans have only won the popular vote once, and that was with an incumbent president. That’s crazy.
Well another 2000 election, Ralph Green Just elected Bush, the rest is history, and shame.
We need trump back Under trump We had
Leadership,low food and gas prices,average income rose in every single metro area for the first time in 31 years,lifted 7 million people off food stamps and into well paid jobs,Historic low unployment,funded black American college's and universitys,
First usa president to visit North Korea for peace talks,defeated isis in iraq and syria,moved the usa embassy to Jerusalem,first usa president to call out nato and received 400 billion dollars from allie country's that weren't paying their fair share,started no wars,
Passed into law right to try that gave terminally ill patients access to life saving medical treatment,lowered drug prices for the first time in 51 years,signed a 1 billion dollar increase in funding for critical alzheimers research,
Strong southern border policies that achieved low illegal migrant crossings
TRUMP 2024
In my prediction video, I have Trump winning!
Of course you do
But to be fair I’m a progressive and not think Trump wins. The polls are horrible for Biden right now
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI I may be a registered republican but I still vote dem if they have good ideas for local stuff. The problem I have, democrats used to be for the little guy. They have turned into what republicans used to be when it came to money groups. Dems have blown the doors off getting money from dark interest groups. Right now, you so called progressives are literally destroying this country. Every single state or city that dems/progressives get ahold gets destroyed. Ma and pa shops are closing at an historic pace. Mass illegal immigration causing prices to sky rocket and wages to decline. Policies that are sending billions of tax dollars over seas. Policies like the green energy crap that is sending US money to places like China for EVs. Just look at CA and their crap policies for jobs and buisnesses, shops are closing up all over the place and soon, the only places anyone will be able to shop at is Walmart, Target and Amazon. Then we have the crime issue. I would rather take a corrupt cop than a violent felon and to lift a POS like george floyd over a cop, sorry. The only things Dems have is lieing, fear mongering, disinformation and Trump Trump Trump.
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI Because he has absolutely no idea what he's doing
it's not a prediction if it's just your trumptarded wishful thinking.
@@N-L3 who, Trump or Biden?
If Biden can find the stage
The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality. But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt, then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre - the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.
The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. - H. L. Mencken
After the debate you'll need to change that title
The only problem, Trump got too cocky on his first debate with Biden and did not prepare. Biden handled it passably; now with the debate format set to favor Biden, Trump will have to get more serious this go round.
@@user-uy5fk2hk2v Im talking about RFK. Trump can be as cocky or serious as he wants but that wont pass like it does with Biden. Bobby will hold them both accountable for their lies.. that is if they don't chicken out of the debate
@@krumkutsarov618
RFK would smoke both on issues, civility, and dignity. If RFK had picked a right of center running mate, I would be all in.
It shouldn't be surprising that RFK hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump. RFK is politically to the left of Biden on all but two or three issues. That said, there exists no magical vacuum election in which only the two major parties run. The average RFK voter is someone who, if RFK wasn't running, would either choose a different third party or would abstain from voting. So while pollsters CAN ask the "well, if you HAD to pick one of these two" question, it's not really a valid question because it doesn't reflect reality. RFK or no RFK, nobody is forced to vote for the two main parties and many of the people who do answer that question for the pollsters would probably just not vote at all.
absolutely no independents or dems will be voting for RFK. you've got brainworms, trumptardation, or a crack addiction if you think otherwise.
Too many ads
Well??? Back in 1992, Clinton was elected solely because of a Spoiler Candidate who suckered Bush voters such as myself! Pretty dumb, eh?? I voted Stupid 4 times. Carter in 76 & 80, Perot in 92 and Harry Brown in 2000!
In 2012, I held my nose whilst voting Romney. So if Trump wins due to RFJ Jr being a spoiler?? Well, I'll take an ugly win any day!!
What do approval rating mean in opinion polls? It matters depending on whether you are an incumbent or a candidate. Usually, the incumbent president has the advantage. In other words, if Both Trump and Biden's numbers are the same, or within a few points, then Biden would have an edge.
Disapproval in an opinion poll can mean many things. First, it could mean simply not voting in the general election. Second, of course, it could mean turning up, and voting for a third party [like JFK Jnr.] Third, it could mean that you are dissatisfied with your candidate, but not enough to swing your vote, vote for a 3rd party, or not turn up to vote. With both Biden and Trump having low approval ratings, JFK Jnr, as the "shiny new thing" as going to appeal to some people who disprove of both Trump and Biden.
Opinion polls use REALLY small sample sizes. Even the best ones, with no political biases. So you can expect them to be off by plus or minus 3% [In reality it can be more]. Keep in mind these predictions are for the two MAJOR candidates. With minor third party runners, the predictions are even more unreliable. That is simple maths. Imagine both Trump and Biden have a REAL [playing at god for a second] vote capture of 45% each. That means 10% is "up for grabs", but it also means that predicting how a third party voter is going to vote is really hard, because the sample size for the minor candidate is even smaller than for the major ones.
This is a major headache for both Dem and GOP strategists. In this "First past the post" style of election, the winner takes all. [In contrast, a preferential voting system, you can vote each candidate in order of preference]. eg. In this scenario, you could vote JFK 1, Trump 2nd, and Biden third. Or whatever you like. In a field of 5 candidates, you could vote 1,2,3,4 and 5. Again, in whatever order you like].
But in reality a voter is stuck with the FPTP system for POTUS elections.
So what is the "take home message" for voters? You have to try to track reality, not what you wish for. Say that you are a Dem voter, and you see Biden down. That is an incentive for you to vote for Biden, even if you don't particularly like him. And for the GOP voter that sees that Trump is up? It may mean that you won't bother to vote.
And sure, that is why there are polling averages. But partisan pollsters KNOW this! So if they think that their guy is doing good or poorly, they will adjust their strategy. But what that strategy actually is, most voters don't know.
You really need a deesser for your audio. Other than that good content but can barely listen honestly.
KENNEDY 24!!!!!!
a Very FAIR/reasonable analysis
It's really annoying to have an election prediction channel leaving states as tossup states.
#2024Elections: Anyone but @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe would make for a better President. America 🇺🇸 we need a competent President that will be capable of delivering policies that will benefit all Americans 🇺🇸. Sleepy 😴 Joe isn’t mentally and physically capable of leading America 🇺🇸.
Trump 2024
IMO RFK Jr will hurt Biden in blue leaning states... hurt Trump in red leaning states... most of the battleground states lean blue not red
Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania all lean red and Trump still does better there in polls with RFK. Michigan and Wisconsin are very contested but still lean slightly red and its the same there.
@@geochonker9052 I'm talking historically blue not current polls... include VA/MN/NH etc... as well... all lean blue idealogically... I'm in NV... we are a Libertarian lean blue state dominated by Dems in Carson City our Capitol
Ryan Gest,
As a college student aspiring to have a career in media, be aware, you misspoke, the past tense of 'sweep' is 'swept' - not 'sweeped'! That figurative term may be used a LOT more in this election cycle!
UN's
THE, SON 👽 RFK Jr's USA's
What a very long videos. With a lot of crap.
I. Fint. Think. Do. Like. I. Said. Hid. Vhise. Trump. Snd. Trump. It. Us. Yes. He. Is. Going. Yo. Ein. Da.
Trump is leading in Nevada by 19 points
6 in Georgia and 9 in Arizona XD
Old News
You are really just wrong in this one you usually underestimate trump significantly but this one is just absurd
we owe jill stein a debt of gratitude 🙏🏻
Donald trump will be the best president again
Go trump
Polling has shown Stein voters wouldn't have voted at all, instead of voting for Clinton, so you are dead wrong about Stein being a spoiler.
Don't forget that the Gary Johnson vote in those three states was WAY bigger than Stein, and the same argjment can be made that all the Libertarian vote would likely have gone to Trump. 2020 was a case where the Libertarians really DID take it away from Trump in WI, AZ and GA and the Greens had far fewer votes.
WI, AZ and GA went full retard last time.
Trump '24
Hot chance third party candidates get 10% lmao
Perfect storm. Biden’s dementia and even worse health and Trump’s conviction.
Vote for whoever you want!
(As long as you don’t vote for the Democrat party) USA!
This is corny
This is the most liberal election prediction channel on yt