Go anywhere in public and 90% of the people you see are wearing Apple Watches or some type of smartwatch. Very very few wearing analog watches anymore. Pretty soon the supply of analog watches will be plentiful and prices will keep dropping. The drama and days of impossible to find Rolex steel sports will be over
These watch companies have deluded themselves. Not every watch is worth $15k. They’ve raised prices soooo much in places like JLC and VC that people are turned off. People are willing to spend that money on a watch were the bulk of it is safe in the secondary market but when you instantly lose 40-60% it doesn’t matter if you like the watch for the watch itself. Obviously modern machine methods, marketing and solid end-links with milled clasps cost money but it shouldn’t cost what these companies are charging. They are pricing the real watch buyer out of the market and I believe in the long run they will regret it.
The brutal truth is that the financialization of watches is more relevant than ever. All brands need to take into consideration how their watches perform on the secondary market. If the buyer can justify their purchase with value retention then the demand will be enormous in contrast to if the watch was a disposable purchase.
If you are anxious about the prices of Rolex going up or down you should not own one because you can not afford one. You will miss out enjoying the watch which you should be wearing ever day.
I get your point - if looking at your watch makes you break out into a nervous sweat, you probably have too much watch on your wrist. But it's a useful data point, knowing about value retention. Especially when buying on the grey market.
I bought a silver dial 1968 1601 (Probably a 9), and a 1965 1016 (Probably an 8) in 2013.I’m in about $6500. Got sport and dress covered. My view of the future? Similar to the car market- a permanent impairment to the new market . The pandemic was a generational peak.
Date just are trending because of cost. Barrier to entry and availability are there for the date just to thrive. In regard to price increases, they will continue to happen. Brands will continue to increase and force the consumer to pay more, relatively the older watches (vintage) may bump up as well.
Yup….great update Austin, having said that I ❤ my last Rolex purchase in 2022…..buying the Red Text Sea Dweller 126600…..it’s a huge visual improvement on my failing eye sight and the comfort feels as good as my vintage 16600…. however the legibility is a big improvement. Vintage watches are the legacy’s that spurred the growth in the market phenomenon we’ve seen today GMT three handers are superb long term holds along with the 16600 S.D. Oh….BTW, the retail price from the A.D’s has increased on Sea Dweller’s from 2022…..by about two thousand dollars.
I hate to say it, but in a year or two the "vintage" (neo-vintage) prices -- as a whole -- will also go down. Let's face it, most Rolex buyers just want a Rolex for the status, without knowing much about them. Today, a ton of buyers buy "vintage" only because they can't buy them new from ADs. But as supplies continue to increase and availability become more normal, these people will buy new instead of vintage. Hence vintage prices will inevitably drop.
That's a great point! I often look at the modern and neo-vintage market as relatively distinct. But they certainly relate to and play off one another. The future of the neo-vintage could very well play out like you said.
@@watchsymposium I have a couple of gorgoeus IWC Yacht Clubs from the late 1960s with the wonderful 8541 movements (much better than modern IWC, IMO). If they are "toxic sludge", then the used watch market has seriously lost its way and is irrelevant to serious watch enthusiasts. But I suppose what you mean is second-hand, non-vintage watches, i.e. used watches that are still in production?
Btw Austin it’s red (bad) & black (good)! As for the 2nd hand market I am not as interested as I am 2/3 for Rolex sports models from the AD and the vintage ones do not interest me. I am waiting on a BLNR that I can get next year with a bit of a push, but financially more sorted to get it in 2026
I would only buy at new at an authorized dealer. Grey market I would get vintage and Neo vintage Rolex’s. I got my Rolex at authorized dealer brand new.
Even if the watch is selling above retail on the gray market, it does not always mean you can buy it at retail from the AD and flip it for a profit - the gray dealers are really low-balling sellers these days...
Hi austin. I will be in osaka next month and I would like to buy a used explorer II black dial with a budget of 1.2m japanese yen. Any store suggestion. Your help is much appreciated thank you.
I need help in buying a pre owned Rolex Daytona! Two tone with white face. My budget is around $20k-$23k. Can you be able to steer me on how to acquiring one? First educate me on this model? Thank you so much in advance! God bless
I bought a 2008 random M Serial Rehaut engraved 16610 new in 2010 and ever since, I have wanted to add another date 16800 - 16610. Why? Isn't it the same as the one I got? asks the not afflicted watch people. Because I want one with drilled lug holes. When they say this hobby is an addiction, it's no lie. I seriously need help 🤣.
Did they take Cartier jewelry into Cartier/Richmond watch sales numbers? After all Cartier is a jeweler first more than a watch brand. Jewelry was always Cartiers bead and butter even if they never made watches. Richmond always was too entitled. Every now and then they pick and choose a brand and force them to increase their prices. We saw these price hikes with Panerai IWC, now it’s JLC. Perhaps they use this tactic in order to balance their revenue since they own many companies. Notice they are trying to push Roger Dubis
Hi Austin, Need some advice .. I am considering buying my first Rolex finally (I know last year I told you I won’t be buying 🫣) … back In Tokyo again this year ! Question - which date sub ref would you recommend i consider.. the one with ceramic bezel ? Also, I am seeing prices of close to USD 7500 in the US.. is that a better deal to consider ? Also - I have recently seen pics of OP Day-date 36 mm at very sharp pricing… should I consider buying that instead as a first Rolex ? Have a desk job in the lending space so I wear formals to work ? Currently my go to watch is the JLC sector dial or the GP 38mm GMT Alarm !
I’m trolling my ad hard for playing the false scarcity game. I keep telling him Im suprised you don’t have a ton of subs, you see how many on secondary markets? Literally thousands of them. There’s no way you get that many people buying these up, he said well I’m getting a ton of watches but the demand is still much higher than what I’m receiving. Not sure I’m buying his BS
Why would an AD tie up their cash flow in stock they refuse to sell? They've already paid Rolex for the stock. Every day they spend not selling a watch is lost money.
Ok, ok, that was harsh - I admit it! For the record, I'm sure they are swell watches. But speaking strictly in terms of value retention, one's "investment" in those pieces is almost certainly heading South. Should we think of watches in those terms? Probably not. But it's a data point to consider when pulling the trigger.
Rolex will be in real trouble if they keep over producing. Half the value in a Rolex is that they traditionally hold their value well. Over supplying the market will only continue to drive values down. This will give the Grand Seiko’s a real opportunity!
Then maybe Rolex will sell you one for $300. Ask them and see. (You might want to sweeten the deal though, and make it $350.) If it works out, you can then sell it to me for $750. Then you can take your $300 profit and make your own Rolex watch.
A 1963 6204 Submariner asking $23000 USD. Come on man. Who do they think wants to be the next keeper of this watch? I’d pay $2000 tops. is why I now look at Super Clones. Keep your over priced and artificially hyped 😊watches.
Go anywhere in public and 90% of the people you see are wearing Apple Watches or some type of smartwatch. Very very few wearing analog watches anymore. Pretty soon the supply of analog watches will be plentiful and prices will keep dropping. The drama and days of impossible to find Rolex steel sports will be over
Great insights, Austin! Happy to see your regular updates again.
These watch companies have deluded themselves. Not every watch is worth $15k. They’ve raised prices soooo much in places like JLC and VC that people are turned off. People are willing to spend that money on a watch were the bulk of it is safe in the secondary market but when you instantly lose 40-60% it doesn’t matter if you like the watch for the watch itself.
Obviously modern machine methods, marketing and solid end-links with milled clasps cost money but it shouldn’t cost what these companies are charging. They are pricing the real watch buyer out of the market and I believe in the long run they will regret it.
The brutal truth is that the financialization of watches is more relevant than ever. All brands need to take into consideration how their watches perform on the secondary market. If the buyer can justify their purchase with value retention then the demand will be enormous in contrast to if the watch was a disposable purchase.
JLC is the biggest offender, their MSRP prices are absolutely insane now compared to 5 years ago
If you are anxious about the prices of Rolex going up or down you should not own one because you can not afford one. You will miss out enjoying the watch which you should be wearing ever day.
I get your point - if looking at your watch makes you break out into a nervous sweat, you probably have too much watch on your wrist. But it's a useful data point, knowing about value retention. Especially when buying on the grey market.
Thanks for the insightful analysis Austin!
This is why I have not bought any modern pieces since 2009 except for the OP41 & 36 in green for me and my wife to thrash on a daily basis.
GOOD NEWS LET THE PRICE KEEP DROPPING MORE AND MORE FOR US WATCH LOVERS THANKS FOR THE UPDATE
I’m waiting for prices to drop!
Austin is a clever chap. Love his thoughtful analysis.
Who wants to become a member of this drunken stream🎉🎉🎉😂😂😂
Great update Austin you rock. BTW that piece looks really good on you brother!!
I appreciate that!
The wolf of Nakano!
I bought a silver dial 1968 1601 (Probably a 9), and a 1965 1016 (Probably an 8) in 2013.I’m in about $6500. Got sport and dress covered. My view of the future? Similar to the car market- a permanent impairment to the new market . The pandemic was a generational peak.
Date just are trending because of cost. Barrier to entry and availability are there for the date just to thrive.
In regard to price increases, they will continue to happen. Brands will continue to increase and force the consumer to pay more, relatively the older watches (vintage) may bump up as well.
Where do you get your data from? Would love to have a similar analysis each month. Great job!
This comes from the latest Stanley Morgan report, which come out quarterly. Members of my channel can request it, and I'll send them a PDF of it.
Nice one, Austin. Great information.
Great Information, this is still a correction. back to normal.
Wait...I thought constantly rising Rolex prices was the norm!😉
I love you Austin
Aw, thanks man - I love you too.
Yup….great update Austin, having said that I ❤ my last Rolex purchase in 2022…..buying the Red Text Sea Dweller 126600…..it’s a huge visual improvement on my failing eye sight and the comfort feels as good as my vintage 16600…. however the legibility is a big improvement. Vintage watches are the legacy’s that spurred the growth in the market phenomenon we’ve seen today GMT three handers are superb long term holds along with the 16600 S.D. Oh….BTW, the retail price from the A.D’s has increased on Sea Dweller’s from 2022…..by about two thousand dollars.
I hate to say it, but in a year or two the "vintage" (neo-vintage) prices -- as a whole -- will also go down. Let's face it, most Rolex buyers just want a Rolex for the status, without knowing much about them. Today, a ton of buyers buy "vintage" only because they can't buy them new from ADs. But as supplies continue to increase and availability become more normal, these people will buy new instead of vintage. Hence vintage prices will inevitably drop.
That's a great point! I often look at the modern and neo-vintage market as relatively distinct. But they certainly relate to and play off one another. The future of the neo-vintage could very well play out like you said.
Great video. Thanks!
Hi Austin where might I find that Morgan Stanley report?
Funny to hear VC, IWC and JLC descibed as "toxic sludge".. 😀
Just on the second-hand market!😅
@@watchsymposium I have a couple of gorgoeus IWC Yacht Clubs from the late 1960s with the wonderful 8541 movements (much better than modern IWC, IMO). If they are "toxic sludge", then the used watch market has seriously lost its way and is irrelevant to serious watch enthusiasts. But I suppose what you mean is second-hand, non-vintage watches, i.e. used watches that are still in production?
What’s Austin’s commission rate? He seems really knowledgeable.
Probably 1000 Bucks
I hope Richmont keeps declining! They have over priced everything and it’s disgusting what they did with JLC prices
still good deals on JLC on the used market
this video is entirely about the second hand watch market. not retail
Btw Austin it’s red (bad) & black (good)!
As for the 2nd hand market I am not as interested as I am 2/3 for Rolex sports models from the AD and the vintage ones do not interest me. I am waiting on a BLNR that I can get next year with a bit of a push, but financially more sorted to get it in 2026
Cheers!
I ❤ Rich-Mount
I would only buy at new at an authorized dealer. Grey market I would get vintage and Neo vintage Rolex’s. I got my Rolex at authorized dealer brand new.
How about the 5513
Even if the watch is selling above retail on the gray market, it does not always mean you can buy it at retail from the AD and flip it for a profit - the gray dealers are really low-balling sellers these days...
I bet they are!
2 years ago i said on this channel i will wait 2 years to buy a rolex . Not quite time yet .
Rolex is like shiny LV bag for men ,, golden era of this brand is loooong gone.
Hi austin. I will be in osaka next month and I would like to buy a used explorer II black dial with a budget of 1.2m japanese yen. Any store suggestion. Your help is much appreciated thank you.
I've hit the shops in Osaka, but it was years ago. But this video from that trip might help: th-cam.com/video/_xD8JQrIm0E/w-d-xo.html
Unfortunately the watch market is dead
Dying, maybe. Dead, not (quite) yet.
I need help in buying a pre owned Rolex Daytona! Two tone with white face. My budget is around $20k-$23k. Can you be able to steer me on how to acquiring one? First educate me on this model? Thank you so much in advance! God bless
will we be able to walk into a rolex AD and a pickup a watch though?
Sometimes, mostly: No
A watch? Yes. The one you want? That's a little harder.
How much for a Fuchsia Rolex Pepsi in Japan Austin ?
The original Rolex BLNR 116710 with the 1st ever bi-colored Cerachrom Bezel. A Rolex 1st will always be just that!
I just wish they had made the minute hand long enough on that, and the 116710LN.
I bought a 2008 random M Serial Rehaut engraved 16610 new in 2010 and ever since, I have wanted to add another date 16800 - 16610. Why? Isn't it the same as the one I got? asks the not afflicted watch people. Because I want one with drilled lug holes. When they say this hobby is an addiction, it's no lie. I seriously need help 🤣.
Fell asleep watching this
th-cam.com/video/pebj5-9fVi8/w-d-xo.html
Ask for your money back and go watch another channel.
So happy i invest in gold.
UK prices from top jewellers on some Rolexes are more than 30% down.
th-cam.com/video/W7RK2TvxadQ/w-d-xo.html
Did they take Cartier jewelry into Cartier/Richmond watch sales numbers? After all Cartier is a jeweler first more than a watch brand. Jewelry was always Cartiers bead and butter even if they never made watches. Richmond always was too entitled. Every now and then they pick and choose a brand and force them to increase their prices. We saw these price hikes with Panerai IWC, now it’s JLC. Perhaps they use this tactic in order to balance their revenue since they own many companies. Notice they are trying to push Roger Dubis
id really like to become a member to watch your other videos, but 25 euros is just too much, sorry Austin
No need to apologize! Memberships are completely voluntary.
Hi Austin,
Need some advice .. I am considering buying my first Rolex finally (I know last year I told you I won’t be buying 🫣) … back In Tokyo again this year !
Question - which date sub ref would you recommend i consider.. the one with ceramic bezel ? Also, I am seeing prices of close to USD 7500 in the US.. is that a better deal to consider ? Also - I have recently seen pics of OP Day-date 36 mm at very sharp pricing… should I consider buying that instead as a first Rolex ? Have a desk job in the lending space so I wear formals to work ? Currently my go to watch is the JLC sector dial or the GP 38mm GMT Alarm !
I’m trolling my ad hard for playing the false scarcity game. I keep telling him Im suprised you don’t have a ton of subs, you see how many on secondary markets? Literally thousands of them. There’s no way you get that many people buying these up, he said well I’m getting a ton of watches but the demand is still much higher than what I’m receiving. Not sure I’m buying his BS
There's a tone of new stock on the grey market here too. It makes me wonder how much longer the illusion can hold.
Why would an AD tie up their cash flow in stock they refuse to sell? They've already paid Rolex for the stock. Every day they spend not selling a watch is lost money.
TOXIC SLUDGE 🗣😩🗣😩🗣😩
Ok, ok, that was harsh - I admit it!
For the record, I'm sure they are swell watches. But speaking strictly in terms of value retention, one's "investment" in those pieces is almost certainly heading South.
Should we think of watches in those terms? Probably not. But it's a data point to consider when pulling the trigger.
U bought a Batman Austin??
Rolex will be in real trouble if they keep over producing. Half the value in a Rolex is that they traditionally hold their value well. Over supplying the market will only continue to drive values down. This will give the Grand Seiko’s a real opportunity!
Grand Seiko will always be just a Seiko…
@@albertmeyer8983and Rolex will always be a mass produced machine made watches,nothing special…
Lower
A watch is $300 worth parts to manufacturers, top. Don’t lie to yourself.
Then maybe Rolex will sell you one for $300. Ask them and see. (You might want to sweeten the deal though, and make it $350.)
If it works out, you can then sell it to me for $750.
Then you can take your $300 profit and make your own Rolex watch.
A 1963 6204 Submariner asking $23000 USD. Come on man. Who do they think wants to be the next keeper of this watch? I’d pay $2000 tops. is why I now look at Super Clones. Keep your over priced and artificially hyped 😊watches.
Does wearing a fake Rolex give you the same feeling as wearing a real one?
Austin, Richemont is pronounced "Reesh-mont". Just FYI
Cheers!
༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Austin the goat butchering every name but Rowlecks! Toxic Sludge approved.
Vaseron, Jayger Le Coutra lol. 😂
1st
Want a 116500LN, don’t want the new one, will it continue to drop on grey/secondary price