"The chosen ones are not robust, and their quick years apon this earth are few, for every song must have its balance" - says the 150 year old albino greenseer of the most incestuous family in Westeros...
And he's somehow a great bowman despite all the vision problems albinos have. I think anytime we go into science in these books there's going to be at least a 70% chance the real answer is a wizard did it.
@9:57 Eddard, at least in my estimation, derives his sense of morality and honor more from Jon Arryn than his own father. I think this is the reason he is so much different from Benjen and Brandon.
It is weird how the nature and nurture debate plays out. Perhaps Robert was too wild and insatiable already or by nature for Jon Arryn's influence to really take root. Even nature is going to have a hard time explaining the difference between the Baratheon brothers and the Stark siblings. There has to be room for both, right?
@@georgerivas8051 I think the war was significant in creating the difference between Eddard and Robert. They had very different experiences, and were apart from each other for a good portion of the war. Robert also reacted badly to the loss of Lyanna.
Robert and his actual brothers are extremely dissimilar, so it feels like nature and nurture are equally inconsistent. I feel like Robert is who he always was, as evidenced by his Edric Storm mini-me, and his actions seem to come organically from his personality. Ned is the head-scratcher, because his actions are all over the place. His trials are so similar to Jaime's (conflicting vows, inconsistent honor, put in positions he never asked for), but Ned's ways of dealing with them seem far less effective or healthy. For as tough as the Starks are and with their words that exemplify the knowledge that bad times are a-coming, Ned folded horribly when it came to letting Cersei off the hook or later lying to the realm to save Sansa. I could totally see Ned knowing about and tacitly condoning Craster, rationalizing it like he does everything else. For all we know, Ned was only up in arms about Robert wanting to kill Daenarys and her baby because of some secret connection (Preston theorizes that it's Daenarys that's the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna). All I know is, GRRM better finish the $#!%ing books. :)
To be fair, we don't know how many sons Craster has recently had. The younger wives might have been fertile, they just happened to have a bumper crop of sons, all of whom were sacrificed. This would also result in a smaller population of young women/girls. Another possibility is that Craster is less fertile in his old age, resulting in fewer pregnancies.
Craster says he has 99 son's prior to gilly having her child. But I'm still skeptical on that being true, I guess Craster could be calculating male descendents which there could be sons that he first had prior to sacrificing them that share in his curse, belief, or practices or the ones changed to others and then breading might be figured into his boast I do find it interesting, that it implys that he's been giving over his livestock because they have been coming more and more often gilly says he's been giving them sheep, even though Craster has a taste for mutton and next it will be the dogs. And then well we don't get told. Which raises the question of what are the whites doing with livestock eating it. Using it for sacrifices trading it to other wildlings for something else . And what is making them come more frequently. the onset of winter the wildlings about to make there play to cross the Wall. One of the thing I think most curious about Craster is his golden arm bands that seem similar to Tormunds, I've wondered if maybe those aren't just the actual cuffs from The Dornish kings that Nymeria had put in golden fetters and sent to the wall. It also seems to me that Nymeria Wed each one of those kings Danny in her wedding custom to Hizdar is put into golden chains as well and if one removed the chains from the cuff would it not resemble an arm band, and we know the wildling bands were past down and contain ancient runes, and only the Thenn clan works in metals. Anyone starting to rant now one last thing. As far as the cache of Dragonglass Jon is lead to by ghost it seems way more probable that it was Chett and company who buried it there is far more to them then what you'd think look up the flowers he brings to the girl he stabbed that lead him to be sent to the wall "The Golden Chalice" anyway Chett begins to freak out during the snow storm that occurs because he's worried that they'll not be able to find the caches of food and supplies they been burying near by. It would seem far to coincidental that his group and another person both recently bury things nearby and both having access to high quality nights watch cloaks. I guess it's possible but even still I think looking at Chet and co is interesting. Also Chet seems to experiance a similar experiance as Tyrion when Tyrion lays wonded after black water with his mouth wrapped shut. It's very interesting anyway I'm done rambling love your videos Preston can't wait for future ones
Also how many of Craster's wives died in the 50 odd years he's been in action? Place doesn't seem to be particularly well supplied and no men are going to work to put food on the table. How useful does he find these women once they've given him babies? They must simply become more mouths to feed?
Jesse Johnson I didn’t remember the bit about Craster and Tormund wearing golden arm bands, so thank you for mentioning it! I need to read up about Nymeria, too :)
Reading ASOIAF pre-Preston and post-Preston is a completely different experience, almost as if I'm reading a different set of books. It's quite unbelievable that George so thoroughly put so many nuanced clues into so many side plots...until you have Preston point out that many are essentially rehashes of old GRRM stories, making it plausible that he could have done so in the ~6 years it took to write AGOT, ACOK, and ASOS. My only question now is how the hell Preston notices so many of these details and puts them together at the speed to make well-produced videos faster than TWOW is being written.
That‘s what I love so much about ASOIAF. You can experience it on many different levels. When I first read the series it was for the great characters and shocking plot twists. But now I reread it for the hidden subplots, great foreshadowing and the many many subtle references, hints and nuances George leaves in the story. The depth of this series is truly something to behold.
Thank the Gods. I'd spent the last thirty minutes trying to decide what to watch. I was about to start doing something productive with my life instead. But seriously, please don't stop making these videos Preston. They are one of the comparatively few pieces of media I look forward to.
I am the ProCrasterInater That Was Promised. I shall wake dragons from stone and end The Long Night... once I'm done binging Preston's videos whilst fathering daughters upon my daughters' daughters.
Quiet Wolf night I I gotta is is that one of time for me me lol I I just just wanted wanted me me and my friend friend so I’m gonna you have the best best juju j jkk
Your bannermen have come, King Preston Boris of House Jacobs, first of his name, the Loremaster, the Undeceived, Master of Riddles and In-between-the-lines-Reader, the Probably-about-half-of-this-righter, Decipher of the Realm and King of the Nerds, the Freaks and the Geeks.
Hell yeah! I love all your videos Preston but your original theories are by far the best. And these Night‘s Watch videos have all been excellent. Cheers!
Hey fantastic video! And, I know I'm late to the party, but re: fertility-- it isn't necessarily the wives fault for low fertility. It could just very well be that Craster, in his old age, is either less fertile or less able to orgasm (or both) leading to less wives being impregnated. This is actually the more likely explanation-- inbreeding depression is just the over expression of recessive deleterious alleles in a population, not necessarily degradation of the genetic code as a whole. Therefore, it should not result in infertility or disability across an entire generation, but rather just in a few select individuals that are of a higher percentage of the population than normal. Of course, this is assuming we are following true population genetics. I'm not sure if GRRM would know about this well enough to write about it per se, but seeing as how incest is handled in other families like the Targs, it seems unlikely that he would ascribe the kind of excessive damage to incestual relationships like you've described. Craster is old and probably very sick. The likelihood that he himself is now becoming less fertile seems infinitely more probable than that all of his wives have suddenly become infertile for little reason.
I really see high probability of all of this being true. Although that rises one question: why did no one tell Jon about these scheming of the Night’s Watch when he became Lord Commander? Seems as if someone would tell him about these shenanigans
Absolutely love this and love you Preston. One nitpick though: At 5:50 you use the word 'gene' when it would actually be correct to say 'allele'. You denote the alleles as 'a' and 'B' and these are just two versions of the same gene, controlling albinism
This one was really awesome and interesting, Preston, which is to say it was particularly so and stands out from all your others that are already amazing. Thank you!
Greetings from South Africa! Craster's entire situation has been something that I have been speculating about for months now! An important part of this speculating is about how Craster came to negotiate/Parly with the white walkers and the answer has been staring us in the face! Craster is missing an ear. I believe that this missing ear was to be part of some magical ritual (much like that Varys claims to have survived) either performed by the children of the forrest or the white walkers themselves. Hope this makes it into a video luv ya vids Preston!
I just wanted to thank you for all the time and hard work you put into this shit man. Seriously, idk how you can dedicate so much time to it. You analyze and develop ideas and points of view that are completely unprecedented. Not only that but it is all very plausible and extremely well thought out. I imagine I speak for many of us when I say thank you for your contribution to the asoiaf community, especially in this time of us running out of shit tot talk about.
Preston, you have made ASOIAF so much more enjoyable to read. GRRM is a fascinating writer, but I struggled with how much nuance he packs into each section of Westeros-Craster’s Keep being one, obviously (and then the Watch burns that mystery right to the ground, damnit). I’m going to need at least 5 re-watches to properly sift through these revelations. Thanks, as always!
That one was awesome! I do wonder though with all the age guessing and timing and such - do we really believe that GRRM is THAT detailed in his hidden storytelling clues? He may be, but I am unaware of it. If he's on the record about it and says he IS that detailed with ancillary characters then someone please tell me.
As Preston pointed out, GRRM definitely is aware of inbreeding depressions (you can also look to the Targaryens or even the Arryns for proof of that) so it would make sense for him to apply this knowledge to Craster as well. On the other hand Preston does like to overanalyze and probably is being way more detailed about it than even GRRM when he wrote it. That is why we love him though ;)
Oh that‘s definitely Preston overanalyzing things. I mean the age distribution is literally one line in the books. It‘s just curious because normally you would expect there to be more younger wives than older ones (exponential growth). Preston just gave us an example of what the family might look like.
PRESTON JACOBS! LOVE LOVE LOOOOVE your channel! Your ASOIAF and Watch GOT videos have really helped me with my writing, thanks to you I’ve started looking at things from a different perspective and have been able to sew in small plots and more symbolism that I hadn’t really thought of before, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK, I SALUTE YOU!!! Also, have you read the Dune series? you analyzing that would be EVERYTHING haha I’d love it!
First, I really liked the video. Good job but I do have some critique 1. Lots and lots of children die, especially in underdevelped regions. In the middle ages most women would get between 4-14 kids and if you were lucky half would survive until 10 years old. 2. North of the wall is defenitely a harsh climate, so child death rates might be even higher. 3. Women often have the tendecy to get either more males or females, Crasters wives might have gotten just a lot of males. Someone in the books does say about Craster that he had over a hunderd sons. In ASOIAF lots of families have either only males or females too. 4. Craster might not have had the health to keep pumping out babies. For a lot of people fucking is quite tiresome and if you have 4 women who you want to get children with each year you have to be in very good health. 5. In Craster's old age his sperm might just be terrible. Some men are partially infertile from very young age (obviously Craster isn't fully infertile) 6. Sadly lots of women died (and die) in childbirth. In most of human history that has been the number 1 reason of women dying. So that might explain some missing women. 7. Some men are greying from an early age, so Craster might be younger than 60. It explains why he is still able to fight and still able to get children. But maybe someone else is doing the fighting for him and getting his children. (His dad who is still alive? A living son? Someone with the same features?) Again these are just nitpicks and other explanations for the few amount of women in his camp. But I do like the theory that his first wife was his mother or some sisters. (Although we never hear about sisters) Also what happened to Crasters father after he got a child? That is quite illegal on the watch right?
Freek Mulder It's illegal for men of the Night's Watch to have sex but nobody actually cares. There even is a brothel in a town south of the Black Castle just for the NW. It would be far worse to desert. Also I don't think that there is someone with similar features working for Craster, he would never allow a rival at the keep.
I know but going to a brothel is a bit different from inviting a woman who is pregnant with a child to the watch And I also suspect that Craster really is the only man in his keep
Preston, I have watched your content for years now and I gotta finally recommend you read the Dark Tower series and all of its accompanying lore. It is a masterpiece and I don’t even like King’s stuff that much. Once you get through Book 1, the others take off like a fucking rocket. You’ll love it, especially if you have any connection to New York.
I love when you do genetic videos. Some food for thought you may want to consider when taking about the production of Craster's kids. What about multiple births? If Craster and his mother produced a set of female twins/triplets, it increases the number of older wives in a shorter time frame. Craster may have had another relative wife to start with as the wildlings at Whitetree would have been related to Craster's mother and therefor him by extension. I'm thinking a younger Aunt/half-sister or something. As for a decrease in the younger generations, do you think a reduction in thr quality of life could be a factor. More children equal less room, harder to feed, etc. Crastor could also not be as sexually vivacious in his advancing age as compared to when he was younger. There is also the fact that a lot of wildling children die in infancy. Hense the not naming them until age 2 thing. With the sickly, weaker babies being produced by the inbreeding, the mortality of Craster's wildling offspring is probably significantly higher than those of other wildling groups.
Okay, i'm just halfway throught the video, but i noticed your reference to "Craster's blood runs black" and it reminded me: Black blood is often mentioned in characters involved in some sort of sorcery. Could it be Craster has been involved in something like that? I mean, i could be something related to his father (Bloodraven was a sorcere in many accounts, but there's also the Others, even if Bloodraven isn't Craster's father. Now, i know the reference to black blood is a reference to him probably having a father from the Night's watch, but it wouldn't be the first time Martin has used words with two or three different meanings in this book...
Coming back to this, I think my whole issue with believing that the night's watch know what craster is actually doing is that if such a thing is the case, they should know about the wights and the scene in A Game of Thrones shouldn't have happened.
Indeed. That Craster has apparently been doing this for many decades with the knowledge/approval of both the Free Folk and the Nights Watch makes their lackadaisical attitude and ignorance towards the Others a rather large plothole, if they knew why he was doing it but didn't believe him and thought he was crazy then there would be no reason not to put a stop to it. Craster isn't THAT valuable of an asset to the Night's Watch. There was really no purpose to the Great Ranging and in retrospect it makes Jeor Mormont look like an absolute moron who cost hundreds of men their lives for nothing, he should know exactly why the Wildlings are leaving their villages, why they are collectivizing under a single leader, why Othor & Jafar Flowers corpses reanimated and should be able to presume that the same thing happened to Benjen & the other missing Rangers.
When Jon's at Craster's Keep, Gilly mentions that since Craster has been sacrificing sheep because he doesn't have enough sons to give to the Others. If that's the case, then will we be seeing sheep-Others at some point?
I live north of Hadrian's wall, not too far from Craster and Crasters tower, thankfully in our world Craster is better known for it's kippers (smoked fish) than for incest.
I want to know how the others communicate with him to strike the bargain. Grrrm describes their language many times. So they can also speak common tongue? Do they warg into one of the daughters and speak thru her. Craster never made sense to me. Closer wildings they could have just taken. Did the others seek craster out or did he call them.
I don't think his father was from the Night's Watch, I think his father was an Other, or he is the descendent of someone who was in the Night's Watch and married an Other. It comes back to those stories about Wildlings 'laying with' the others and also a commander of the Night's Watch marrying an Other and causing some sort of cultural schism that led to the long night. If he is part Other we don't know how truly old he is, for all we know the Others in the show are hundreds of years old. The Meatbringer in The House of the Worm story shares the gift of sight with both races as someone who has DNA from both, maybe Craster has the ability to hear and understand the language of both.
🌟🌟WARNING!! CONTAINS POSSIBLE ASOIAF SPOILERS!!🌟🌟 "The boy was Mance Rayder's son and Craster's grandson, after all. He had none of Sam's craven blood."- Samwell IV, AFFC. Sam is referring to Dalla's son after Gilly takes him. Was Dalla Craster's daughter? Mance did say he met Dalla on his way back from Winterfell. But I think Craster would've been furious if two of his daughters (Dalla & gorgeous Val) had run off with the King-Beyond-The-Wall. Perhaps Val & Dalla weren't full sisters. If it's true, how would Sam know? Maybe Sam meant Craster is the boy's adoptive grandfather. Or is this another editing mistake?
I totally never noticed it before you pointed it out! I'd proobably go with editing error because Sam doesn't seem to think about it any further, though of course it would be much cooler if it was an actual hint.
It isn't proven in the books, that Jon is the son of Rhaegar. It is even hinted at, that a character, who doesn't appear in the show, a young man called Gryff, is actually Rhaegars' son Aegon. Furthermore, there are clues, that tell, that Jon is the firstborn and trueborn son of Eddard "Ned" Stark and Ashara Dayne.
Man so if Blood raven essentially takes over Bran, and then bran leaves and fights the others like in the show. Then Bran will be fighting his own Grandsons
Doran Martell is also a lot like George R.R. Martin. Think about it: both live in nice houses overlooking pools in arid environments, both keep their secrets too well to the point where they alienate those they shouldn't, and just about every single one of their plans have blown up or backfired on them. GRRM planed for this to be a trilogy--it backfired. He planed for there to be a 5-year gap between books 3 and 4--that backfired. He planned for all of book 4 to be in 1 book, that also backfired, and don't get me started on Winds of Winter.
Really great video. Would love to see you do some videos on the schemes of Varys (e.g. whether Yoren and Shake were his agents or what Varys wanted to do with Ned) in the context of him trying to put Aegon Targaryen/Blackfyre on the throne. I know you’ve touched Illyrio Mopatis’ plans but I think a Varys one about his small plots in books 1-3 would be great.
JP Hamon-Cole You can find all the topics Preston will cover on his chanel (Details, i think). The Varys Master Plan is definitely coming, however his Patreons are choosing the order of the topics covered so i don't know when. I have been waiting for over a year but i'm sure it will be soon enough. On a side note, in his Dornish Master Plan he mentions that Illyrio and Varys are probably Doran's equal but opposite nemesis (i don't know the plural) so i would guess their plan's analysis will be as in depth, although probably shorter since their end-game has already been revealed to us.
Ah thanks for letting me know i'll check that out. Yeah I've seen his Dornish Master plan video about IIlyrio's plans vs. Dorans plans which is really interesting but would be good to know who might be a Vary agent, or what's Varys been doing since a SOS, or is Varys going to have any impact on the Battle of Steel etc. Hopefully will see some video by Preston touching on this.
I just kept remembering mat pat's "how mad is daenerys" video. He uses the inbreeding coefficient to calculate that. Since then I've been wondering if it's any use to use real life science to deduct things from piece of fiction, and I came to the conclusion that it depends on how familiar the author is with it. Anyway, I like any theories about families in asoiaf because the bloodline seem to be so important topic.. at least to all the characters since the world they live in is so feudalistic.
Do you think albinism is somehow connected to the magic in the series? Remember the Ghost of High Heart, another albino with visions? Perhaps even the Targaryen's fair features, purple eyes (maybe red + blue?), and magical abilities mean they attained their powers from albino ancestors.
I have a Question ,.Aegon the Unworthy died from rotting form the inside . which can be considered as dying from bad blood . since he was bloodravan dad , could it be that bad blood is hereditary and Craster inhert it ? thought reek number 1 has bad blood as well ,so i don't know if there is a connection .
I wonder why only boys are given to the Others. We know so very little about them. If I recall correctly we've only seen them directly twice in the entire series: The prologue chapter in AGoT and the one Sam kills in ASoS.
Aron Jansson Nordberg answering in a Preston Jacob fashion. It probably has to do with the fact that crasters father had a greenseer gene. So far. All the hyper greenseers we have met are male. Which can indicate this gene is on the Y chromosome. The daughter will have no y gene. But every single son will. Thus. The white walkers will only want the sons
To me it doesn't make any sense the others should be able to take both men and women from Wildlings towns. Yet we are told they only take baby boys from Crasters keep. And the others don't attack his place or the Wildlings army camp which Jon tells us the Wildlings defenses are bad. Yet attack the watch
Emmanuel Bravo Well, I doubt it would have anything to do with the Y chromosome. The Y chromosome is so small that it barely has any genes of its own. There are things known as sex-dependent traits or sex-influenced traits. These usually come from one or more certain alleles that can be present on either sex's chromosomes but may only be transcribed/translated in males or females.
My theory on the old gods is (very roughly) that what the singers consider the old gods & what the first men consider the old gods, are actually two different things. The singers' gods are nameless spirits that do not answer prayers or communicate in any way. They may, or may not actually exist. The gods of the first men though are the spirits of the tree-wedded greenseers who do communicate with (& manipulate) the first men, going so far as to demand blood sacrifice from them. Think about it, the singers believe that "the gods" gave them the gifts of green-dreaming & skin-changing, how could the gods do that if the greenseers are the gods ? Jojen says that that when the singers die they go into the trees & the rocks etc but the greenseers are wedded to the trees while still alive. This is what I call "The Heresy of the Children". They broke the world when they forced living consciousness into weirnet.
"obviously our author is no incestuous polygamous kinslayer." are we absolutely sure?
We have no real proof...
See you next time in "Mind of George RR Martins and Men"
I've met plenty of cousin fuckers.
"The chosen ones are not robust, and their quick years apon this earth are few, for every song must have its balance" - says the 150 year old albino greenseer of the most incestuous family in Westeros...
I very good point
Doesn't count, he noclipped into a tree.
And he's somehow a great bowman despite all the vision problems albinos have. I think anytime we go into science in these books there's going to be at least a 70% chance the real answer is a wizard did it.
What happens to the red-eyed ones? The greenseers are mentioned, but the red-eyes?
Also note theon is wrong, ghost is still alive, while lady (for example) is dead
@9:57
Eddard, at least in my estimation, derives his sense of morality and honor more from Jon Arryn than his own father. I think this is the reason he is so much different from Benjen and Brandon.
I'd feel better about this theory had Robert had gleaned any of Jon Arryn's tendencies.
It is weird how the nature and nurture debate plays out. Perhaps Robert was too wild and insatiable already or by nature for Jon Arryn's influence to really take root. Even nature is going to have a hard time explaining the difference between the Baratheon brothers and the Stark siblings. There has to be room for both, right?
Also I should it should be noted that the Night's Watch doesn't CONDONE child sacrifice, but simply looks the other way.
@@georgerivas8051 I think the war was significant in creating the difference between Eddard and Robert. They had very different experiences, and were apart from each other for a good portion of the war. Robert also reacted badly to the loss of Lyanna.
Robert and his actual brothers are extremely dissimilar, so it feels like nature and nurture are equally inconsistent. I feel like Robert is who he always was, as evidenced by his Edric Storm mini-me, and his actions seem to come organically from his personality. Ned is the head-scratcher, because his actions are all over the place. His trials are so similar to Jaime's (conflicting vows, inconsistent honor, put in positions he never asked for), but Ned's ways of dealing with them seem far less effective or healthy. For as tough as the Starks are and with their words that exemplify the knowledge that bad times are a-coming, Ned folded horribly when it came to letting Cersei off the hook or later lying to the realm to save Sansa. I could totally see Ned knowing about and tacitly condoning Craster, rationalizing it like he does everything else. For all we know, Ned was only up in arms about Robert wanting to kill Daenarys and her baby because of some secret connection (Preston theorizes that it's Daenarys that's the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna). All I know is, GRRM better finish the $#!%ing books. :)
Craster’s greatest secret: His black sausage storage
Her name is GILLY. >:{
To be fair, we don't know how many sons Craster has recently had. The younger wives might have been fertile, they just happened to have a bumper crop of sons, all of whom were sacrificed. This would also result in a smaller population of young women/girls. Another possibility is that Craster is less fertile in his old age, resulting in fewer pregnancies.
Kirsten Paff I thought the same thing
Craster says he has 99 son's prior to gilly having her child. But I'm still skeptical on that being true, I guess Craster could be calculating male descendents which there could be sons that he first had prior to sacrificing them that share in his curse, belief, or practices or the ones changed to others and then breading might be figured into his boast I do find it interesting, that it implys that he's been giving over his livestock because they have been coming more and more often gilly says he's been giving them sheep, even though Craster has a taste for mutton and next it will be the dogs. And then well we don't get told. Which raises the question of what are the whites doing with livestock eating it. Using it for sacrifices trading it to other wildlings for something else . And what is making them come more frequently. the onset of winter the wildlings about to make there play to cross the Wall. One of the thing I think most curious about Craster is his golden arm bands that seem similar to Tormunds, I've wondered if maybe those aren't just the actual cuffs from The Dornish kings that Nymeria had put in golden fetters and sent to the wall. It also seems to me that Nymeria Wed each one of those kings Danny in her wedding custom to Hizdar is put into golden chains as well and if one removed the chains from the cuff would it not resemble an arm band, and we know the wildling bands were past down and contain ancient runes, and only the Thenn clan works in metals. Anyone starting to rant now one last thing. As far as the cache of Dragonglass Jon is lead to by ghost it seems way more probable that it was Chett and company who buried it there is far more to them then what you'd think look up the flowers he brings to the girl he stabbed that lead him to be sent to the wall "The Golden Chalice" anyway Chett begins to freak out during the snow storm that occurs because he's worried that they'll not be able to find the caches of food and supplies they been burying near by. It would seem far to coincidental that his group and another person both recently bury things nearby and both having access to high quality nights watch cloaks. I guess it's possible but even still I think looking at Chet and co is interesting. Also Chet seems to experiance a similar experiance as Tyrion when Tyrion lays wonded after black water with his mouth wrapped shut. It's very interesting anyway I'm done rambling love your videos Preston can't wait for future ones
Also the survival rate of inbreed child would be a lot worse. It is likely, many of them die earlier to their older counter.
Also how many of Craster's wives died in the 50 odd years he's been in action? Place doesn't seem to be particularly well supplied and no men are going to work to put food on the table. How useful does he find these women once they've given him babies? They must simply become more mouths to feed?
Jesse Johnson I didn’t remember the bit about Craster and Tormund wearing golden arm bands, so thank you for mentioning it! I need to read up about Nymeria, too :)
Does this explain why gilly's baby won't grow up in the show
Yes and he’s also a greenseer.
According to the tree the boy is Craster's 5 times. Must be hard
I don't think anything can explain some of the show's choices...
I thought its because Sam bent space time.
Lol.
Reading ASOIAF pre-Preston and post-Preston is a completely different experience, almost as if I'm reading a different set of books. It's quite unbelievable that George so thoroughly put so many nuanced clues into so many side plots...until you have Preston point out that many are essentially rehashes of old GRRM stories, making it plausible that he could have done so in the ~6 years it took to write AGOT, ACOK, and ASOS. My only question now is how the hell Preston notices so many of these details and puts them together at the speed to make well-produced videos faster than TWOW is being written.
That‘s what I love so much about ASOIAF. You can experience it on many different levels. When I first read the series it was for the great characters and shocking plot twists. But now I reread it for the hidden subplots, great foreshadowing and the many many subtle references, hints and nuances George leaves in the story. The depth of this series is truly something to behold.
The man is an autistic genius
The second time you read it, it becomes a different book entireley.
Preston is an analyst by trade. He reads Reddit, these comments, takes lots of notes and most importantly is on the spectrum
I want GRRM to watch all of Prestons videos and see what he thinks lol
Thank the Gods. I'd spent the last thirty minutes trying to decide what to watch. I was about to start doing something productive with my life instead. But seriously, please don't stop making these videos Preston. They are one of the comparatively few pieces of media I look forward to.
You beat me to posting that exact comment. Keep up the fine work!
ConriDubhghail literally me
are you saying you are procrasterinating?
I am the ProCrasterInater That Was Promised. I shall wake dragons from stone and end The Long Night... once I'm done binging Preston's videos whilst fathering daughters upon my daughters' daughters.
I AM A GODLY WORKER!!
'The Secrets of Crasters Keep' or simply: Incest-Calculation
Preston Jacobs, the self-thaught incest expert.
George=Craster confirmed!! Thanks bro
Wow so he has a compound in Santa Fe full of his daughters? He did buy a house next door it all fits!
Chad, where is goodmenbowl?
Fuck off, Chad.
Sooo awesome!
Quiet Wolf night I I gotta is is that one of time for me me lol I I just just wanted wanted me me and my friend friend so I’m gonna you have the best best juju j jkk
Your bannermen have come, King Preston Boris of House Jacobs, first of his name, the Loremaster, the Undeceived, Master of Riddles and In-between-the-lines-Reader, the Probably-about-half-of-this-righter, Decipher of the Realm and King of the Nerds, the Freaks and the Geeks.
ZTorres well said
Words: and we are back
We must secure the holdfast of Lemongate and prepare for a siege!
@@casey9439 Queen in the north!
Crazy-sounding yet surprisingly convincing - that's the Preston Brand!
Hell yeah! I love all your videos Preston but your original theories are by far the best. And these Night‘s Watch videos have all been excellent. Cheers!
Hey fantastic video! And, I know I'm late to the party, but re: fertility-- it isn't necessarily the wives fault for low fertility. It could just very well be that Craster, in his old age, is either less fertile or less able to orgasm (or both) leading to less wives being impregnated. This is actually the more likely explanation-- inbreeding depression is just the over expression of recessive deleterious alleles in a population, not necessarily degradation of the genetic code as a whole. Therefore, it should not result in infertility or disability across an entire generation, but rather just in a few select individuals that are of a higher percentage of the population than normal.
Of course, this is assuming we are following true population genetics. I'm not sure if GRRM would know about this well enough to write about it per se, but seeing as how incest is handled in other families like the Targs, it seems unlikely that he would ascribe the kind of excessive damage to incestual relationships like you've described.
Craster is old and probably very sick. The likelihood that he himself is now becoming less fertile seems infinitely more probable than that all of his wives have suddenly become infertile for little reason.
Your ideas are always thought out, backed up by text, and logical. What really sets your work apart is the artwork. Its awesome.
Thanks PJ, you are literally expanding ASOIAF lore.
figuratively speaking, Stannis.
Seriously Preston, Thank you man. You are the only one that makes the WOW wait bareable
I really see high probability of all of this being true. Although that rises one question: why did no one tell Jon about these scheming of the Night’s Watch when he became Lord Commander? Seems as if someone would tell him about these shenanigans
This, this right here. This is what makes Preston different. Well done sir.
These help me sleep and with anxiety. Idk why, but thank you
Some of your best work, Preston. Easy to follow but still detailed and mind-blowing as usual.
Remember to account for the sons in the genetics, could be that the albinos could have all coincidentally been male.
nothing beats a preston vid
even pork with applesauce
what about the tail, it is the juiciest part after all
Absolutely love this and love you Preston. One nitpick though: At 5:50 you use the word 'gene' when it would actually be correct to say 'allele'. You denote the alleles as 'a' and 'B' and these are just two versions of the same gene, controlling albinism
Thank you, Preston. This is exactly the sort of analysis I missed from you.
I love the genetics angle to your analysis
Bro you did a pedigree diagram on top of book research with proper page references? You deserve all the likes lmfao
This series on the Night's Watch continues to be excellent. I'm greatly looking forward to the next part!
This one was really awesome and interesting, Preston, which is to say it was particularly so and stands out from all your others that are already amazing. Thank you!
I've been rewatching all of your videos Preston. Thank you so much for the constant stream of ASOIAF content
Greetings from South Africa! Craster's entire situation has been something that I have been speculating about for months now! An important part of this speculating is about how Craster came to negotiate/Parly with the white walkers and the answer has been staring us in the face! Craster is missing an ear. I believe that this missing ear was to be part of some magical ritual (much like that Varys claims to have survived) either performed by the children of the forrest or the white walkers themselves. Hope this makes it into a video luv ya vids Preston!
I knew it was worth staying to 1:00 in the night
Really nice and well thought out video. Thank you for regularly putting so much effort in the content for us to enjoy.
Craster is such a fascinating character-looking forward to Part 2!!!
I just wanted to thank you for all the time and hard work you put into this shit man. Seriously, idk how you can dedicate so much time to it. You analyze and develop ideas and points of view that are completely unprecedented. Not only that but it is all very plausible and extremely well thought out. I imagine I speak for many of us when I say thank you for your contribution to the asoiaf community, especially in this time of us running out of shit tot talk about.
Preston I appreciate the work you put into this. This is very well thought out. Good job!
I mean, Aemon went to the watch with Bloodraven, but no one ever seems to think about Aemon...and he did say he fell in love once.
Craster secret Targ. The funny thing is this is more cradible than a lot of others.
so...Gilly is the rightful heir to the Iron Throne?
Preston, you have made ASOIAF so much more enjoyable to read. GRRM is a fascinating writer, but I struggled with how much nuance he packs into each section of Westeros-Craster’s Keep being one, obviously (and then the Watch burns that mystery right to the ground, damnit).
I’m going to need at least 5 re-watches to properly sift through these revelations. Thanks, as always!
This series is too hype! I can't wait to see where this one goes.
Older men often have erectile dysfunction, which could explain the fertility drop off.
Thank you for this video :-)
Ever read the studies where an old rooster gets introduced to a new hot young chick? Ah say...ah say, no Blue Chew tonight.
That one was awesome! I do wonder though with all the age guessing and timing and such - do we really believe that GRRM is THAT detailed in his hidden storytelling clues? He may be, but I am unaware of it. If he's on the record about it and says he IS that detailed with ancillary characters then someone please tell me.
As Preston pointed out, GRRM definitely is aware of inbreeding depressions (you can also look to the Targaryens or even the Arryns for proof of that) so it would make sense for him to apply this knowledge to Craster as well. On the other hand Preston does like to overanalyze and probably is being way more detailed about it than even GRRM when he wrote it. That is why we love him though ;)
The answer to your question is yes.
I understand the genetics thing has been explicitly shown to us, I meant more about the math stuff with peoples' ages when they have kids, etc.
Its a more general point. About half the women are old and half are young, but if this were a normal family tree it would be bottom heavy
Oh that‘s definitely Preston overanalyzing things. I mean the age distribution is literally one line in the books. It‘s just curious because normally you would expect there to be more younger wives than older ones (exponential growth). Preston just gave us an example of what the family might look like.
Preston, you made my day, thanks for the video and keep the good work.
Is it possible thst the drop off in fertility is to do with craster's age, health and sex drive?
Yes. It's also likely caused by incest-related birth defects, which is a major problem once you get into reproducing with your own kids.
Ahhh that moment you get notified that there’s a new Preston video. Makes my day every time
Sweet. You Sir, are once again the cherry on top of my sunday.
Thanks Preston, awesome way to start my Monday at work, legend!
PRESTON JACOBS! LOVE LOVE LOOOOVE your channel! Your ASOIAF and Watch GOT videos have really helped me with my writing, thanks to you I’ve started looking at things from a different perspective and have been able to sew in small plots and more symbolism that I hadn’t really thought of before, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK, I SALUTE YOU!!! Also, have you read the Dune series? you analyzing that would be EVERYTHING haha I’d love it!
"Give Craster an axe, why not? Let's give him our swords and spears as well. I mislike the way they clank and rattle when we ride." ~Dolorous Edd
I made strange noises when i saw the notification
Great episode Preston.That was, for lack of a better term, enthralling. Dude, please lemony lemon cake release part two soon!
Great way to start the week. Thanks Preston
First, I really liked the video. Good job but I do have some critique
1. Lots and lots of children die, especially in underdevelped regions. In the middle ages most women would get between 4-14 kids and if you were lucky half would survive until 10 years old.
2. North of the wall is defenitely a harsh climate, so child death rates might be even higher.
3. Women often have the tendecy to get either more males or females, Crasters wives might have gotten just a lot of males. Someone in the books does say about Craster that he had over a hunderd sons. In ASOIAF lots of families have either only males or females too.
4. Craster might not have had the health to keep pumping out babies. For a lot of people fucking is quite tiresome and if you have 4 women who you want to get children with each year you have to be in very good health.
5. In Craster's old age his sperm might just be terrible. Some men are partially infertile from very young age (obviously Craster isn't fully infertile)
6. Sadly lots of women died (and die) in childbirth. In most of human history that has been the number 1 reason of women dying. So that might explain some missing women.
7. Some men are greying from an early age, so Craster might be younger than 60. It explains why he is still able to fight and still able to get children. But maybe someone else is doing the fighting for him and getting his children. (His dad who is still alive? A living son? Someone with the same features?)
Again these are just nitpicks and other explanations for the few amount of women in his camp. But I do like the theory that his first wife was his mother or some sisters. (Although we never hear about sisters) Also what happened to Crasters father after he got a child? That is quite illegal on the watch right?
Freek Mulder It's illegal for men of the Night's Watch to have sex but nobody actually cares. There even is a brothel in a town south of the Black Castle just for the NW.
It would be far worse to desert.
Also I don't think that there is someone with similar features working for Craster, he would never allow a rival at the keep.
I know but going to a brothel is a bit different from inviting a woman who is pregnant with a child to the watch
And I also suspect that Craster really is the only man in his keep
7. confirmed...coldhands is Craster's dad...
Exactly. Plus two of his wives/daughters died from Gray scale, which would not have been included in the 19.
Yes and sadly probably some more in random infection, virusses and other illnes
Finally,
As always great job
ive come to chew sourleaf and raise the banners....
All out of sourleaf
This was awesome. Thanks Preston!
Yes awesome vid and might I add that I asked several questions about craster in the comments and then an awesome vid, yes! Needed this!
This is all super disturbing, but that young craster is adorable.
Yay new theory videos!
Good recap. I cant wait to hear more about the nights king.
Woah, this is some amazing analysis!
Videos only getting better. Keep it up!!!
Your videos are so in depth. I like it
Preston, I have watched your content for years now and I gotta finally recommend you read the Dark Tower series and all of its accompanying lore. It is a masterpiece and I don’t even like King’s stuff that much. Once you get through Book 1, the others take off like a fucking rocket. You’ll love it, especially if you have any connection to New York.
So much talk of recessive genes has me thinking its not over yet, Snake!
Really enjoyed this. Please keep making more book videos.
Oh yeeeeaaaaah!
Been waiting a while and its always worth it
YESSSSS WELCOME BACK PRESTON
Been waiting for this one! Awesome!
You're awesome.
I love when you do genetic videos. Some food for thought you may want to consider when taking about the production of Craster's kids. What about multiple births? If Craster and his mother produced a set of female twins/triplets, it increases the number of older wives in a shorter time frame. Craster may have had another relative wife to start with as the wildlings at Whitetree would have been related to Craster's mother and therefor him by extension. I'm thinking a younger Aunt/half-sister or something. As for a decrease in the younger generations, do you think a reduction in thr quality of life could be a factor. More children equal less room, harder to feed, etc. Crastor could also not be as sexually vivacious in his advancing age as compared to when he was younger. There is also the fact that a lot of wildling children die in infancy. Hense the not naming them until age 2 thing. With the sickly, weaker babies being produced by the inbreeding, the mortality of Craster's wildling offspring is probably significantly higher than those of other wildling groups.
Okay, i'm just halfway throught the video, but i noticed your reference to "Craster's blood runs black" and it reminded me: Black blood is often mentioned in characters involved in some sort of sorcery. Could it be Craster has been involved in something like that? I mean, i could be something related to his father (Bloodraven was a sorcere in many accounts, but there's also the Others, even if Bloodraven isn't Craster's father. Now, i know the reference to black blood is a reference to him probably having a father from the Night's watch, but it wouldn't be the first time Martin has used words with two or three different meanings in this book...
Coming back to this, I think my whole issue with believing that the night's watch know what craster is actually doing is that if such a thing is the case, they should know about the wights and the scene in A Game of Thrones shouldn't have happened.
Indeed. That Craster has apparently been doing this for many decades with the knowledge/approval of both the Free Folk and the Nights Watch makes their lackadaisical attitude and ignorance towards the Others a rather large plothole, if they knew why he was doing it but didn't believe him and thought he was crazy then there would be no reason not to put a stop to it. Craster isn't THAT valuable of an asset to the Night's Watch.
There was really no purpose to the Great Ranging and in retrospect it makes Jeor Mormont look like an absolute moron who cost hundreds of men their lives for nothing, he should know exactly why the Wildlings are leaving their villages, why they are collectivizing under a single leader, why Othor & Jafar Flowers corpses reanimated and should be able to presume that the same thing happened to Benjen & the other missing Rangers.
Just rewrched qorin earlier and wondered when this was coming. Thanks
Been waiting for this video more eagerly than for the next GOT season.
When Jon's at Craster's Keep, Gilly mentions that since Craster has been sacrificing sheep because he doesn't have enough sons to give to the Others. If that's the case, then will we be seeing sheep-Others at some point?
"We know of no character north of the wall back then, except one: Bloodraven." How about Aemon my little sweet Robin ?
Well, maesters tend not to range north of the Wall.
Intended maester Sam Tarly does.
Alright, I'll give you that.
So maester Aemon raped Craster's mom . didn't know he had that in him.
I live north of Hadrian's wall, not too far from Craster and Crasters tower, thankfully in our world Craster is better known for it's kippers (smoked fish) than for incest.
I want to know how the others communicate with him to strike the bargain. Grrrm describes their language many times. So they can also speak common tongue? Do they warg into one of the daughters and speak thru her. Craster never made sense to me. Closer wildings they could have just taken. Did the others seek craster out or did he call them.
I don't think his father was from the Night's Watch, I think his father was an Other, or he is the descendent of someone who was in the Night's Watch and married an Other. It comes back to those stories about Wildlings 'laying with' the others and also a commander of the Night's Watch marrying an Other and causing some sort of cultural schism that led to the long night. If he is part Other we don't know how truly old he is, for all we know the Others in the show are hundreds of years old. The Meatbringer in The House of the Worm story shares the gift of sight with both races as someone who has DNA from both, maybe Craster has the ability to hear and understand the language of both.
But it is nowhere stated, that Others can produce children. It would also make the pact with Craster rather redundant.
We're getting closer to the Sweetrobin video, i feel it
🌟🌟WARNING!! CONTAINS POSSIBLE ASOIAF SPOILERS!!🌟🌟
"The boy was Mance Rayder's son and Craster's grandson, after all. He had none of Sam's craven blood."- Samwell IV, AFFC. Sam is referring to Dalla's son after Gilly takes him. Was Dalla Craster's daughter? Mance did say he met Dalla on his way back from Winterfell. But I think Craster would've been furious if two of his daughters (Dalla & gorgeous Val) had run off with the King-Beyond-The-Wall. Perhaps Val & Dalla weren't full sisters. If it's true, how would Sam know? Maybe Sam meant Craster is the boy's adoptive grandfather. Or is this another editing mistake?
KellieSand04 good point
Julia Da Thank you. What do you think the quote means? I'm stumped
I totally never noticed it before you pointed it out! I'd proobably go with editing error because Sam doesn't seem to think about it any further, though of course it would be much cooler if it was an actual hint.
It isn't proven in the books, that Jon is the son of Rhaegar. It is even hinted at, that a character, who doesn't appear in the show, a young man called Gryff, is actually Rhaegars' son Aegon.
Furthermore, there are clues, that tell, that Jon is the firstborn and trueborn son of Eddard "Ned" Stark and Ashara Dayne.
@@rick149ou Your ultimate and penultimate commas are infuriatingly unnecessary.
Love this idea 💡
Ohhhhh HERE WE GO GUYS!
Before you get too tangled up in tinfoil, remember that Craster England is where red herrings come from.
Man so if Blood raven essentially takes over Bran, and then bran leaves and fights the others like in the show. Then Bran will be fighting his own Grandsons
Doran Martell is also a lot like George R.R. Martin. Think about it: both live in nice houses overlooking pools in arid environments, both keep their secrets too well to the point where they alienate those they shouldn't, and just about every single one of their plans have blown up or backfired on them. GRRM planed for this to be a trilogy--it backfired. He planed for there to be a 5-year gap between books 3 and 4--that backfired. He planned for all of book 4 to be in 1 book, that also backfired, and don't get me started on Winds of Winter.
The old looking wives could have been from living under harsh conditions.
Yes please do part 2 soon
Great video !
You may not have eyes as red as blood or green as moss but you have the gift Preston.
aw hell yeah! this is the hard-hitting shit I've been looking for!
Really great video. Would love to see you do some videos on the schemes of Varys (e.g. whether Yoren and Shake were his agents or what Varys wanted to do with Ned) in the context of him trying to put Aegon Targaryen/Blackfyre on the throne.
I know you’ve touched Illyrio Mopatis’ plans but I think a Varys one about his small plots in books 1-3 would be great.
JP Hamon-Cole You can find all the topics Preston will cover on his chanel (Details, i think). The Varys Master Plan is definitely coming, however his Patreons are choosing the order of the topics covered so i don't know when. I have been waiting for over a year but i'm sure it will be soon enough. On a side note, in his Dornish Master Plan he mentions that Illyrio and Varys are probably Doran's equal but opposite nemesis (i don't know the plural) so i would guess their plan's analysis will be as in depth, although probably shorter since their end-game has already been revealed to us.
Ah thanks for letting me know i'll check that out. Yeah I've seen his Dornish Master plan video about IIlyrio's plans vs. Dorans plans which is really interesting but would be good to know who might be a Vary agent, or what's Varys been doing since a SOS, or is Varys going to have any impact on the Battle of Steel etc. Hopefully will see some video by Preston touching on this.
I just kept remembering mat pat's "how mad is daenerys" video. He uses the inbreeding coefficient to calculate that. Since then I've been wondering if it's any use to use real life science to deduct things from piece of fiction, and I came to the conclusion that it depends on how familiar the author is with it.
Anyway, I like any theories about families in asoiaf because the bloodline seem to be so important topic.. at least to all the characters since the world they live in is so feudalistic.
Do you think albinism is somehow connected to the magic in the series? Remember the Ghost of High Heart, another albino with visions? Perhaps even the Targaryen's fair features, purple eyes (maybe red + blue?), and magical abilities mean they attained their powers from albino ancestors.
Preston you are the rockstar of ASOIAF
In the TV show gilly says she had 2 sisters that died to greyscale, idk what that means for your calculations but I figure it's worth mentioning.
This is about the books, and the books say nothing about sibling having greyscale.
This is one hell of a math class we got here.
I have a Question ,.Aegon the Unworthy died from rotting form the inside . which can be considered as dying from bad blood . since he was bloodravan dad , could it be that bad blood is hereditary and Craster inhert it ? thought reek number 1 has bad blood as well ,so i don't know if there is a connection .
Love the intro music.
God damnit you ended the video when it started becoming really good. I would love to hear you talk about the night's king >___>
I wonder why only boys are given to the Others. We know so very little about them. If I recall correctly we've only seen them directly twice in the entire series: The prologue chapter in AGoT and the one Sam kills in ASoS.
Aron Jansson Nordberg answering in a Preston Jacob fashion. It probably has to do with the fact that crasters father had a greenseer gene. So far. All the hyper greenseers we have met are male. Which can indicate this gene is on the Y chromosome. The daughter will have no y gene. But every single son will. Thus. The white walkers will only want the sons
And from Crasters perspective he is giving them potential rivals. He want his wifes all for himself so there is no place for boys under his roofs.
To me it doesn't make any sense the others should be able to take both men and women from Wildlings towns. Yet we are told they only take baby boys from Crasters keep. And the others don't attack his place or the Wildlings army camp which Jon tells us the Wildlings defenses are bad. Yet attack the watch
Yep.
Emmanuel Bravo Well, I doubt it would have anything to do with the Y chromosome. The Y chromosome is so small that it barely has any genes of its own. There are things known as sex-dependent traits or sex-influenced traits. These usually come from one or more certain alleles that can be present on either sex's chromosomes but may only be transcribed/translated in males or females.
My theory on the old gods is (very roughly) that what the singers consider the old gods & what the first men consider the old gods, are actually two different things. The singers' gods are nameless spirits that do not answer prayers or communicate in any way. They may, or may not actually exist. The gods of the first men though are the spirits of the tree-wedded greenseers who do communicate with (& manipulate) the first men, going so far as to demand blood sacrifice from them. Think about it, the singers believe that "the gods" gave them the gifts of green-dreaming & skin-changing, how could the gods do that if the greenseers are the gods ? Jojen says that that when the singers die they go into the trees & the rocks etc but the greenseers are wedded to the trees while still alive. This is what I call "The Heresy of the Children". They broke the world when they forced living consciousness into weirnet.