It's not a race, but there are geopolitical pressures at play which are a risk to the long-term security and prosperity of Europe. Both Russia and China have made gains in claiming stakes in the southeast of Europe. China wants influence in Europe and they pursue this primarily through infrastructure partnerships, but they are not an entirely trustworthy superpower. Russia will do anything to weaken European unity inviting trying to describe governments,foster far right nationalust movements and use countries to threaten it's European event. They may have already succeeded in Serbia. This is not just a matter of following protocol.
What you said about Montenegro is not true. It is not led by a caretaker government right now, a proper coalition and goverment was formed after the recent elections. Also the person shown at 6:45 is the current Prime Minister, who explicitly stated that his number one goal is EU integration. Please take more caution when doing research for your videos.
pa ti seronjo samo tako razmišljaj i pričaj i nećeš ništa uraditi@nightbot1788 Sramota me vas što prvu priliku nadjete da unižavate druge nacije ko da smo mi neki kurac.
At 3:50 you say that Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia were NATO member before receiving candidate status, but Montengro joined Nato in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020, so they were not nato members when they received EU candidate status
NATO made huge mistakes in Ukraine and lied and lied to all of the west constantly about the war in Ukraine and the pipeline issue was done by a NATO member. NATO will sense to exists once Trump is re elected in 10 months. EU wants Ukraine in when negotiations have not even started with Russia yet about ending the war and its fate.
the biggest problem the eu needs to solve before enlargement is that its currently way to easy for a single member to stall everything by vetoing major decisions with no real way to eject problem countries its actually kinda incredible that in all the years its existed they never considered what happens if somebody undesirable takes power in a member country or how vetos can be abused
The alternative is that some countries will always get bullied and have to go along with things they don’t like. With no way to change it or get out. That’s simply unfair and undemocratic. The current way is the best way, but it becomes more and more if a hindrance with each new member. The EU only has two options to survive: Federalise or disband.
I'd rather that than bigger countries getting together and forcing legislation against other countries will onto them. Many countries would have exited a long time ago if that was the case.
@@welshedWhat about a multi tiered EU? perhaps France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium can federalize immediately, as they seem to align on most values, and be pro-integration, and the others can join when they are ready, without losing some of the current benefits of the EU?
@@excentrik5725 I'm sorry, I assumed you were capable of thinking for yourself without needing me to fill every single logical step. Normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo implies mutual recognition. Serbia recognition of Kosovo is enough for all the five EU members to drop any objections to the recognition of Kosovo. Therefore, no extra step is really needed for Kosovo (and Serbia) to join the EU other than fulfilling the acquis.
Russia is almost always invaded from the West. The geography means there is nothing but some rivers to stop armies sweeping up to Moscow The further west the border is, the narrower the border because mountains.
@@julianshepherd2038you also can say Russia most often attacked the West. Look at the wars against Finnland, against Poland in 1939 or even in 1914 they provoked entering Germany to support the Austian Hungary empire.
I 100% stand by EU expansion, but with the current decision making and voting system, it'll lead to an even more chaotic situation than the present one. I hope they find a way to solve this.
@msl2299 Some like Moldova may do it out of necessity due to security threats like Russia. I think the Balkans and other nations in the Interamriam will also find this useful, too. The reasons are because it protects the new nation from external threats since it is more powerful economically and politically. In addition, the larger economy results in lower prices due to economies in scale. These new states would be multi-ethnic, and the former nations can become the new provincial governments of the unified nation. Ideally, the nation would be a unitary state, but options for a federation, confederate, or containing autonomous provinces also exist.
@pingu6028 imo it's better economically and in terms of security, too, to have an enlarged EU. If the EU didn't have a policy of enlargement, then Russia would continue to expand into this domain. Seeing how Russia has responded to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and others wanting to join the EU, the EU probably felt they had to expand to counter Russia, otherwise Russia would fill the void and gain greater control over the EU. Expansion is a matter of maintaining sovereignty. Russia fought against German extremism in the first two world wars, which was good. I feel like we are fighting Russian extremism now in a second Cold War. If we win, we can occupy and deradicalise Russia like Germany and integrate them into the UNE. The German economic and social success that followed demonstrates that Russia can be rehabilitated. Putin can also be held accountable unless he flees.
@@tauceti8060But a large portion of the population is still white? 😅 There's only a tiny amount of people living in the east and the largest is concentrated in the west. Kinda like Russia does it. Yes the geography is small for the western parts, but the population however is big in the small part. But with Erdogan in power nothing will change for the next 5 years or more :) no EU.
@@tauceti8060 Turkey's location doesn't seem to have hindered it's ability to join the EU. That has been due to other factors. Also, Cyprus is entirely outside Europe geographically but was still able to join.
I don't know why everyone is throwing numbers like mid or late 2020s for some countries' entry when the EU already stated that their objective is to be ready for expansion by 2030. That should be read that only after 2030 will new members be accepted, which makes perfect sense considering the pace of the current reforms, both in the EU and in the candidate countries.
In light of Hungary and other countries who have backslid since joining, you'd think they'd work on procedures to boot countries from the EU before they added more. They already have countries that probably subtract more value from the EU than they add.
I have been wondering if other existing members would pass on all the criteria that new members are now subjected to. France for instance is one state that comes to mind.
@@WallaseyanTube No. Some of the current EU members would not pass certain recent criteria. National debt not being more than 60% of GDP, par example. But current criteria only apply to new applicants, not to those who are already members.
This addition and subtraction of value is a deceptive thing. These are just dry numbers. For example, it does not include how much these countries raise the GDP of the Powerfuls with cheap labor. Not by chance, they don't get fired...😉
Losing Britain lol it's still a body blow to the EU to lose one of it's largest economies, if either France or Germany left also it would end the whole thing immediately
@@sagittariusa7662 I always knew that about Russia and Canada but that just clicked for me Maybe it's cause I always thought of Europe as small anyway. Iceland and Greenland aren't that big either now that I think about it
A huge chunk of Moldovan citizens have already european citizenship because of Romania, so that’s not a problem, the accession would help Moldova develop economically like Romania had and it’s still is, one of the fastest growing economies on the continent.
The problem with letting Moldova in is the issue with Transnistria. Especially if Russia is able to annex Odessa . Moldova would likely have to get amalgamated into Romania for that to happen. Ignoring that Moldova would be a massive drain on EU coffers.
@@chesterdonnelly1212from Moldova perspective, it is. It has always been of great economical value for Moldova. Most of its electricity comes from Transnistria.
Regardless of the fact that Montenegro has made the most progress, they are just the most uncontroversial applicant by far. I don't know what's with some people in the EU seriously thinking that they can ''fast track'' Ukraine and Moldova when some Russian allies have been elected in some EU countries. Slovakia and Hungary's current government in particular are just never letting Moldova and Ukraine join, not unless Russia actually loses the war.
Moldova has a huge pro EU majority in the parliament with one party having that, a pro EU president. Yes, there is transnistria, but Cyprus entered the EU while still having the issue with North Cyprus.
@@mirceazambitchi1151 Yeah but North Cyprus is a Turk separatist region and Turkey is a friend of the EU (in theory anyway.) I'm sure you realize why Transnistria is a bigger issue.
@@eVill420 Are they though? Cause last I checked, two years ago their only ally in the EU was Hungary and everyone else was firmly pro-Ukraine. You can't really say that's the case anymore now can you? Russia will lose influence if they actually, you know, lose. If they win the war or just keep this stalemate going for years, I don't see that happening.
It would certainly make sense with Serbia and Kosovo if the EU is interested in either joining, as the will want that conflict sustainably resolved, and bringing both into the EU as sovereign members would actually be a reasonable compromise between Kosovo's desire for independence and western integration, and Serbia's desire for stronger economic ties to Europe, assuming Serbia remains interested. I think there's a lot of work for most of the member countries listed. In some ways the UK rejoining seems equally (im)plausible.
i been to Albania and being in Albania is no difference then being in italy greece or spain to me albania was not only similar but better and cheaper the best warm people i have ever meet all across europe they will open their house doors and welcome you in
Well its cool, but its significantly less developed than Italy, Spain and even Greece. It might be cheaper, because the locals earn like 1/4 of what average Spanyard earns, like 500 euro after tax. It also struggled with more corruption than Spain or Italy (and Spain and Italy are not the most uncorrupted nations in the EU). But its a nice nation, i guess in one decade they might be in the EU if they progress hard with economy+rule of law.
I think Montenegro and then Albania is more likely. Montenegro is very close to eu values at the moment also has euro which will make the integration into the union more easily
With the exception of Montenegro, I don't think any of these countries have a realistic chance of joining anytime soon. They all have pretty serious internal and also external problems that are unlikely to get resolved within the next 20 or even 30 years.
Well, All of the former Warsaw Pact and Post Soviet Union countries had serious problems when they joined the EU. Just being democracies for a really short time. Accession into the EU is what can solve many of these problems. While a few others should be dealt with in the chapters and accession treaty.
Alternatively, the EU gives up the pretence that membership is based on making an internally cohesive block and admits it is just granted to spite Russia.
Probably Montenegro will join first, Albania and NM will follow. They have developed a culture, that completing the chapters is beneficial for themselves, so they have the willingness to join.
we applied in 2004, and entered 2013. So about 9 years (Croatia). But we haven't entered Schengen or Eurozone before 2023. Honestly Montenegro, Bosnia&Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo are way too dysfunctional to make much progress. Serbia and Albania could, but their governments are preoccupied with mostly populism to take the admission procedure seriosly. So I honestly doubt seeing any new Balkan members in the next decade. But I hope I'm wrong
This is probably the most realistic and to the point analysis I read here. It's obviously coming from someone understanding the Balkans thoroughly and from the inside, and not only through theoretical knowledge and info, as the (very much admired) authors of this channel mostly do. I wonder how come Montenegro is so much ahead in the accomplished steps and chapters than others, when it's a country basically run by a few families, is ripe with nepotism, corruption, and is built partially on mafia money from the 90s onward, and partially on the money coming from the Russian oligarchs and shady businessmen investing in real estate and land in the 00s and early 10s. I'd honestly like if someone could explain this to me, maybe I don't have the updated info, but I'd love to understand how come they managed to "wash their hands" from that legacy so fast and efficiently to make the EU commission believe they're the most integrated of the new member candidates.
@lafabias1876 That's the thing, Montenegro really didn't do that much. Think of it as taking a test, and in over a decade, you only wrote your name on it and answered 3/33 questions. Some of these chapters, like judicial and economic parts are tough, but some reforms could have been made ages ago, but that would hurt people with connections to the government. That's what happened to Turkey. They really didn't do much in the last 15-20 years in the application process, simply because it's against personal interests od Erdogan. It's easier to wine how "Europe doesn't want us". Similar to Serbians goverments views sometimes. Montenegro has a massive problem even without all the stuff you mentioned. They don't even have a currency bruh. They use Euro illegally and simply roll with it. They blankly stated that since they are in the process of EU integration it's only a matter of time they achieve Maastricht criteria for Eurozone so what's the point of making a currency just for the time in-between. You can imagine the face on Brussels birocrats after reading that idea lmao
For Serbia to join they must drop the Kosovo issue and accept de jure loss of territory. And even then some other neighbour like Croatia can block Serbia's entry to the EU. Serbia doesn't really have a chance.
Not only Serbia (all the issues it has and how much is messed up is some another story), the EU itself and its double standards can be blamed for the decreasing pro-EU attitude in Serbia. The majority of Serbian citizens are neither pro-EU nor anti-EU, but they absolutely don't giva sh*t about the EU. Here, the EU is perceived as an extremely hypocritical organization where one country has one set of criteria and another has completely different criteria. Some countries have to fulfill a million conditions and others are enough to whine. While Serbia had to fulfill a million (primarily political) conditions for each next step, some others were on the ''fast track'' without having to fulfill any of the necessary criteria and conditions. Whether someone liked it or not, the fact is that apart from the (alleged) political will of Ukraine and Moldova to enter the EU, they do not meet any other criteria. In all fields, in terms of level of development and progress, they are years, if not decades, behind Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia, but within a few months they reached the status for which the Balkan countries had to pay blood, even the level of corruption, human rights, free market, freedom of speech is beyond terrible. Another very important factor in the diminishing positive attitude towards the EU is the EU's attitude towards the current Serbian government. Because the EU completely ignores the pro-EU opposition, 100% supports the autocrat in power, helps a person who is a copy of Orban to keep that power and considers him the only man to speak with in Serbia. For this reason, many people who were strongly in favor of the EU are slowly shifting their opinion, myself included. All in all, the EU itself has missed many opportunities with the Western Balkans and I think that those deceptions about the revived idea of enlargement no longer hold water and that no one cares so much about it anymore, nor does the EU have that magnetic power anymore because it offers basicaly nothing. Just double standards and nicely packaged blackmails. The general attitude in Serbia is that it would be best for us to be part of the European Economic Zone, like Switzerland, Iceland or Norway. To have solid economic, trade and business ties, a visa-free regime, but without unnecessary and endless negotiations about potential, or rather never feasible, membership. I think everyone would be relieved if this charade gonna stopped. By the way, Russia's influence in Serbia, believe it or not, is miserable. Neither is there a strong economic, cultural or any kind of exchange. Nobody buys Russian products (there's no any of tham at all), nor speaks Russian, nor do ordinary people care about Russia. The current Government is using Russia's veto power in UN because of Kosovo, and as a bogeymanin the West in order to get some benefit. Cheers!
Finally someone from around these parts telling how people really feel. I love when someone EUxplains to me from like urban Belgium how things are in my country and how our government is good because they "want" the EU.
Georgia is about to get the candidate status in about 10 days (EU Commission recommendation to be rubber stamped by the Council) and you should have also mentioned Georgia's progress on chapters which is better than several other discussed
Indeed. That was quite a strange omission. Georgia still needs reform but it certainly has a better chance than say, Turkey, or Serbia. Still unlikey to join pre-2030, but at least its likely to join eventually.
@@henrybn14ar since when is Orthodoxy a problem? As already replied Bulgaria and Greece are also Orthodox countries. Besides, was not European values based on Christian values? Anyway, regardless of this philosophical discussion, check opinion polls of Georgia - support of EU membership is steadily 80%+, so, respectfully your argument does not make sense in this context
As someone that recently visited Bosnia and Montenegro the fact Montenegro has the Euro and also has stronger cultural links with current EU countries, it's the only one I think would fit with the EU. The biggest issue with Montenegro is its debt from building a vanity road project to nowhere significant as they ran out of money. It was built by the Chinese and the debt it has with China could be something that holds them back. The road project even though it was never finished cost over 1 billion Euro in a country with only a population of 600,000 people.
Yes, I can see some links, but by reading the European Commission report (Montenegro 2022) the chances are slim. The country has many opened chapters with "limited progress". It takes much more than just culture and tourism for a country to join the EU.
@@TheSouth-j7f not quite, it is a plain generalisation and not every Serb thinks like that. But yes NATO is generally unpopular because of the war in 1999. Many Serbs did not know what was happening in Kosovo, and NATO bombed northern Serbia which led to many civilian deaths. Also propaganda against NATO was very strong and it is still hard to change that narrative. The EU is becoming less popular as well, that is true, which is again affected by limited freedom of speech and the main political party's propaganda and influence. But there are Serbs who would like to join the EU, and I think that even more Serbs would change their negative opinion regarding the EU if the current government and political parties start focusing on it. It became a subject that was pushed aside.
Hey I think you misspoke during the candidate status part of the video (around the 4 minute mark). Montenegro and North Macedonia did not join NATO until fairly recently (2017 and 2020 respectively). So they become candidates before becoming NATO memebers
@@Besthinktwice Especially the national politicians, they have still have some loyalty to their people. The foreign politicians don't. They should not decide what happens to a different people, that can't vote for or against them.
thats because you dont understand the EU, if a decision goes thru and its going to hurt a country's economy or something else, that country has the full right to say no and stop the entire organization from letting the vote go thru, ukraine and moldova are such cases because they do not hold to many of EU's requirements and they are there for a very good reason, one of which is to keep the currency stable, second is to keep illegal arms, and illegal drugs from entering the EU which Ukraine especially has a lot of, and to keep refugees out, this is because once Ukraine and moldova enter, they need to hold to the shengen border policy meaning they have to open their borders to the rest of the EU, opened to wide there is not a single sign of protection, only thing telling you that you are crossing the border is a sign. and what you have to know is that this way of voting was thought out exactly because of the fact that if a vote came and it was going to hurt a EU member state even slightly it could be outright refused by that one country, this is so that they cant do voting in the EU to hurt another EU state, a form of internal EU punishment, because that EU country can simply vote no and get it thrown into the trash can but hey i dont mind either way, if ukraine and moldova join its going to collapse the EU because they, especially ukraine, is so far from reaching the requirements its going to take the whole EU down with its massive issues like having a population that wants to flee conscription, and heavy amounts of corruption aswell as the lack of democratic pratices (zelensky cancelled upcomming elections) and once that happens everyone will be free from the euro and be able to control their own currency, inflation, deflation and rules again.
The answer is - none. The EU will cease to exist before any of those countries manages to get in. They should better look for other options. Greetings from Serbia, we are looking for prosperity not decline, sorry, but not interested in it any more ❤️
As a Turk I think we shouldnt join EU. We are very different from the western of point and to the eastern point of view. We just should be our own and make a special deals with both EU, Russia, and Middle East countries and be a buffer zone between them. Both EU and Türkiye should realize we are different and thats okey lets just cooperate on our mutual interests and be a good neighbors each other.
As a Greek, I find it very sad that Turkey is going through a really bad phase due to bad politics. I hope that's not going to last much longer and all problems will be solved to allow Turkey to move on with the times. I think, what you are saying is the same reason the Ottoman empire collapsed. Culture must keep downloading updates or vanish. PS: "Cyprus must re-unite. We are all neighbours and we should be friends and co-operate."
I wish you in Turkey would agree to create a Middle Eastern version of the EU with at least half-sane countries like Turkey, Israel, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Oman, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Bahrain
@@clivesmith9377 Yes we have very bad politicians but they are just the mirror of the population sadly and its gonna take at least 3 decades to put things on the track with education and economic wise. And actually I'm a Turkish Cypriot living in Türkiye and I dont think Cyprus should re-unite. Turks were ready there and we did everything we could to end the conflict and unite but the south dont wanna share any power with us any time soon so either we should be independent or be a autonomous region of Türkiye.
The UK just needs to get into a position where it has the political will to rejoin. So far there is regret over leaving but that's not quite the same thing - for the moment the issue is stuck in the pile of "too hard, and we have other problems to deal with". But once we've got over that hump, we should be able to speed through the chapters much more quickly than other countries, because we've already been aligned with the EU whilst in it, and tbh haven't diverged that radically since leaving (mostly we've just ended up creating extra paperwork for ourselves, which is ironic for all those "cut Brussels red tape" guys).
@@alexpotts6520 the problem is that in order to get trade deals with other countries the UK is willing to relax their standards (for example allowing foods from the USA that are banned in the EU). so the longer they are on their own the more they will drift from the EU rules. and the EU has said that they won't make any "special deals" with prospected members, so the UK will have to accept the EURO and full Schengen, and those are a big pill to swallow for the British people, especially the ones that voted for Brexit. so it might take a lot more effort for the UK to rejoin the EU than they think/hope it will be.
One correction, the prime minister you showed for the face of Montenegro's caretaker government is actually the prime minister of the newly elected government that started working this October, we had a caretaker government before that.
I'd bet for Montenegro to join first, maybe in tandem with Albania, and if it all goes swell also Serbia and Kosovo, all of them in a big Balkan package.
Albania is currently run as a de-facto mafia state, so it would require a massive (almost miraculous!) societal transformation for them to catch up with Montenegro. I think North Macedonia will catch up faster than Albania.
I would say Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, and then maaaaaybe Serbia and Kosovo. Speaking from lived experiences in Serbia, and with a few friends from Kosovo, the whole thing is an ugly frozen conflict. Imagine Cypriot politicians waving promises of retaking the north while aiming to errode democratic institutions, and the same happening in the north. That is what we have now. Even the democratic opposition is heavily fragmented, and organized crime will make sure any reform will go extremely slow. That's not even starting with the horrible situation regarding Belgrade - Prishtina relations. Neither side is willing to give way, and Albanians in Serbia as well as Serbs in Kosovo are suffering with their lives for it. Maybe some day it becomes better, but as it stands, there is so much hatred that if they had a choice between a candidate that gets them into the EU in one week, and a candidate which exterminates the other country's population in one week, they would pick the second one in a landslide.
What Ukraine is doing is simply incredible! Many of the candidate countries are not at war and do not suffer losses in the economy and many other sectors of the country, I believe that Ukraine will be ready to join the EU in 2030, there is a lot to do, but we have already taken the first full-fledged steps towards the EU, it remains only to end the war and reform the economy, and then the path to the EU will be open for us! 🇺🇦🇪🇺
Upcoming local elections in Moldova? Those already happened like 3 weeks ago. Instead you could've talked about how the elections exemplify how Moldova is still battling with oligarchy...
@@Besthinktwice Reform the EU and lay down specific tiers of integration. There's already differences but not well defined. That way countries that want to integrate further can do so and countries that don't can stay that way, while all are still in the same organization. If this was already the case the UK might have never left and kept its involvement with the EU mostly economical, while the rest of western europe could be much more integrated than it is now, delegating more and more to a central eu governament.
@@VinnieMFthey should roll back the powers to that of what was the EEC.. Taxation and Red Tape by Multi overlapping governments are sucking the life blood out both business and the worker.
It will be a poor one, wanting a long-term subsidy - and it probably won't have considered that the EU will suck its young away (vide Romania). I would urge the EU to consider the security implications of extending membership. If the EU wouldn't be prepared to put military forces into an applicant country before accession, it probably shouldn't be offering membership. Good video.
@@baird5682 EU does have it's own version of NATO article 5. Specifically article 42.7 "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power."
@baird5682 The EU has a clear military dimension to it - both on terms of military production and military operations. Last year we saw the crazy situation when threatened Finland and Sweden were being offered protection by a Brexited UK while the EU did less.
- I agree with the analysis on Montenegro. - With regards to the other Balkan nations, It wouldn't make sense to not split the application of all 3 countries within the Open Balkans initiative as they are making joined efforts in reforms. It seems valuable enough to keep it is a sub-political union like the Benelux, Baltic Assembly or Nordic Counsil. Purely based on timing, it would make sense to add the countries of Open Balkans before Bosnia, unless Bonsia joins the Open Balkan. (they weren't a big fan of admission) - With regards to Ukraine and Georgia I wouldn't try to push it. The EU isn't ready (yet) for dealing with the aftermath (or an active) armed conflict. - Adding Georgia would only make sense if the "stronghold" could be a bit bigger by adding Armenia as a candidate and by Supporting and collaborating with a more developed Turkic league containing Turkey, Kazachstan and Azerbeidjan. It would also help in finding a new balance in the relationship with Turkey. I think they also wouldn't mind that scenario themselves. In any case, as said in many TLDR videos before: The EU should, in parallel with the expansion, have some internal reforms, like a.o. (1) removing the Veto right (which blocked the admission of Roemania and Bulgaria to Shengen - If border control isn't up to par, like the Austrians or Dutch say, then make joint investment in those countries so that it can be. That is what European coöperation should look like.- ), (2) Updating the representative number within the EU parliament, (3) strengthening a EU joined defense that is more independent from NATO and (4) finding a way to handle the representation of regions that are in current EU countries, but want to reshape. (e.g. a method to handle a situation like the split of Czecho-Slowakia, but within a context of the European union. Basically a playbook where both parts can keep their membership without re-applying, with some strict rules about non-violence, guaranteeing rights for ethnic or linguistic minorities, etc, ...)
The veto shouldn’t be removed, it should just require more than one country (two or three) and those countries should represent 5-10% of the EU population. There are lots of stupid Southern European ideas that absolutely must stay blocked!
Romania is not on balkan migration route , as for Bulgaria when they push back the migrants they have abuse acusations. Meanwhile 100k of migrants arive in Lampadusia in Italy and Ceuta in Spain
Expansion is always welcome, but I would be most thrilled if Switzerland, UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein showed interest in joining. Also the remaining non-Euro members joining the Eurozone would be great.
@@bestrafung2754 Maybe but I don't think that will happen any time soon, especially considering that if the UK rejoin this time they will have to join the eurozone and switch currency... I just don't see them doing it.
What would be real cost for Ukraine if they would like do reforms as fast as possible? Their country is under huge pressure because of Russian war. Probably if they will go "All-In" into Europe then Europe would have problems in saying "No" and avoiding support.
Ukraine will be the gold mine for both sides. 1) Ukraine has a large youth population that will move west. This will bring back remittance for Ukraine too 2) Resources. They have lots. Agriculture and energy alone would be big; and there will be financial resources coming in into Ukraine as well for these. Only issue is GeoPolitics of Russia and Turkey as well.
@@roberttewnion1690scotland has alot of issues to fix before independence can be brought up in the conversation. Those issues going on hasn't been brought up or targeted by nationalist parties which is why nationalism is at a low, the SNP itself is in shambles so that doesn't help.
USA is main factor in the game, bulgars is just a russian satelite, Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro in EU until 2028, than bulgarias passport business in balkans will collapsed
In my view, I think it would be prudent for the EU to prioritize its economic well-being, focus on economic development, and enhance border control measures before considering the inclusion of a new member.
EU expansionists are operating under the premise that more members means a stronger and more effective EU. However, any organization is strongest when all members share the same goals and thus 'pull together.' Allowing new members into the EU will weaken the organization, as they will have different values and objectives, and work against what other members are trying to accomplish. On top of that, the EU took a huge financial hit when the UK left, and any candidate states are obviously going to be net recipients at a time when Germany and France are already beginning to resent bearing almost all the financial load. The EU would gain more by a restructuring to stop current members like Hungary and Slovakia from impeding EU goals than by admitting even more divergent countries.
in the short term you are right, in the long term (about half a century) it is better to have a large territory and a large population, this is because in the future the world will be dominated by superpowers. So the right path is a balance between the two, that is, a very slow expansion, so that every small enlargement does not constitute a shock to the economy of the remaining nations. The first enlargement will concern Blackmountain, Albania and North Macedonia, which together have a small population and should not burden the rest of the countries excessively. The challenge will be the entry of Ukraine, a nation devastated by war, however this nation will enter not before 10 years and in the meantime it is hoped that the economy of the continent will improve and that the gap between the nations that pay and those that receive becomes increasingly smaller.
praying for Montenegro membership 🇲🇪 i believe that Montenegro will join either on its own or with the UK applying to rejoin, but it’s neighbors will probably join in a bunch a while after
@@DunDeeoZ the uk’s economy isn’t doing too well after leaving, there wasn’t really a reason for them to actually leave. i also think the eu should be used so that other countries which aren’t as well off can develop and integrate into more developed European markets. we can’t be 100% sure the uk is gonna rejoin but imo there’s a pretty high chance
@@vainoue9173 The U.K. economy is doing better than expected, all the gloom and doom prophecies were proven wrong. It is not always about the economy, the U.K. will not be joining, why should it? To subsidise other new countries to catch up???? Are you for real?
It’s cause the Mongolians on the East refuse to let us in because they think we’re “West Bulgaria” and that our language is the same as theirs but as a different dialect which is not true
Sorry bro but Montenegro has 40+% Serbian population and we can stop them from joining EU anytime we want.Montenegro also has huge culture links with Serbia
@@Greksallad Well i just told u that almost half of population is Serbian and many others are pro Serbian.If they start getting too much from Serbia we will have to bring them back to us.Thats just how geopolitics work.They are pro EU but if they start going against Serbs then we can all expect chaos in Montenegro
I think people do not realize how hard it is from the perspective of these countries to actually join the EU. For instance, Ukraine formally decided it wants to join a year ago. Some countries like Serbia really do not want to join at all (according to public opinion). Half of Bosnia wants in, half does not. Ukraine is in war. Moldova is well, who knows?.... etc... In comparison, look at my country - Croatia - which joined in 2013, 10 years ago - the whole country, every significant political party, every man and woman decided by a political and citizens consensus that we belong and will join the EU as soon as possible BACK in 1990!!! The whole country worked to reform our country to be able to fulfill that goal for grueling TWENTY THREE YEARS without much distractions until we finally joined. And another TEN YEARS for Schengen and Euro. The only county among all mentioned which does not have 2nd thoughts and/or 5th column is Albania, but overthere I do not see the sheer determination we Croatians had for joining the EU. For us it was almost the question of life and death, and regardless, it took us 23 years. TWENTY THREE YEARS! The only country for which the EU is a life or death question is Ukraine, a country in War. And in War, no matter how bad you want the EU, first you must survive, just as we Croatians did from 1990 to 1995. Ukraine will simply have to deal with Russia before it continues on its EU path. In conclusion, I do not see any country joining the EU in the next 10 years. The only hope for them is a plan similar to one Macron proposed recently - a kind of watered down EU - just to keep them going until a leader emerges - the one who will implement a real reforms and bring them into the EU fold.
Many people are completely unaware that Ukraine's accession to the EU will be at the expense of the entire Eastern Europe, which will become a NET payer and will finance the reconstruction of Ukraine against its national interests. For example, is financing the Ukrainian transport and agricultural sector in the interest of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania? Not at all. The case of Ukraine is completely different from other countries.
well, we did pull our weight to join the eu but that is fairly easy for a country of our size. ukraine has fundamental problems and a history of corruption that croatia, a corrupt country by local standards never could even dream of. overthrowing the government for a pro-eu one that shakes things up resulting in a 8 year civil war with newborn seperatists that ends up in a full blown invasion by russia? yeah, thats a tough sell for anyone looking for any kind of trade partners/alliances. you must not compare the likes of croatia and slovenia where everything leading to and after their independence was decided by referendum with the likes of ukraine.
@@robertgrabowski The people of Eastern Europe are not beggers nor welfare addicts. We are here to build the Union. If it means we will help rebuild Ukraine, so be it. The union will only be stronger for it.
@@HicHicpa You are right, it will be hard. But mark my words, Ukraine will join the EU before Serbia, because it has the will and the resolve to do it - the very things Serbia lacks.
Would say that Macedonia and Montenegro have the highest chance of joining sooner... The rest will wait for a long time... Mainly Turkey, Kosovo and Georgia
I think Montenegro will be next country to join. It‘s a small country, so it wouldn‘t give much turbulences for the EU. Montenegro also has the euro and is member of the nato. In the last few years and also in the future years the tourism and also the GDP increase much. The biggest problems are the dept and the political issues. Since more than 1 month Montenegro has a new government and it‘s ambition is to join the EU. It‘ll become interesting how the situation develop in the next months. 🇨🇭❤️🇲🇪
The EU needs to put a pause on expansion. There are right now a multitude of issues that it already can't handle, because the bloc is so fractured. One major issue being migration of course. Let's get the house in order first and then think about expansion, alright?
This wave of expansion is starting precissely because of the migrant crisis. Europe needs labour but it doesn’t need social unrest and officials in Brussels have come to a conclusion that it will be easier to assimilate other non EU Europeans that have a proven record of easy assimilation then imigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
@@torcidasplithr7758 no we should not Ukraine should stay neutral with international guarantees Uraine is a black corrupted hole it could be a cause for collapsing the EU.
We kinda need a system to kick countries out rather than expanding, or maybe there should be conciderations seperating the union into cultural regions and corporate that way when it comes to social questions (like a central/eastern, western and southern union) it's getting too inhomogeneous to keep people facing into the same direction
Only Montenegro and Albania have real chance to Join EU in the next 10 to 15 years. Rest of the countries will wait for a very long time if they ever join the EU at all.
the EU will never accept ecosse into their club... scotland is bankrupt ...corrupt to the core,,..a 3rd world country in the making...( i should know. i stay there)...
I wouldn't be so sure that the expansion is "back on the menu". Further expansion is one of the main levers that France and Germany and other pro treaty reform countries are dangling over Hungary, Poland and other anti treaty reform countries. At least currently, France and Germany and others are pretty determined that there will be no expansion without treaty reform most significantly getting rid of unanimity voting and the veto.
Thank you Kordanor, as a Scot, I confirm that most people, are desperate to get out of the UK prison and have a seat at the EU table. We strongly supported the EU, after the fraud committed by the UK during our referendum
Assuming that any new country can join by 2030-35, that's likely enough time to allow enough of the current eastern EU members to have closed the gap with western EU countries for them to not be as much of a burden, some could even be paying in the EU pot by then, that should help to make it easier to bring in new countries. But for me, money isn't the real issue and isn't really the selling point of why countries should want to join the EU, the best reasons are stability, security, rules change, all of which will create a lot of economic growth, that's far more important than hand-outs from the EU to those countries, as it will create a lot of stability which will in time bring in a lot of inwards investment. The real problem I find is the EU institutions, major reforms are needed before the EU can expend, especially on veto and majority voting rules, and until those reforms are done, I don't think it's wise for the EU to allow any new country to join, I also think if some countries become stubborn on trying to stop reforms, a core group of EU countries should find a way to go ahead and do the reforms in areas that they can, either way, it's crazy for any EU country to think things can stay as it is, because even thought it's working, it's creaking under its own weight, reforms should have been done years ago but now it's becoming urgent. Regardless of how reforms or the attempt to reform the EU goes over the coming years, I see no reason why the EU and its countries can't create closer relations with the countries that want to join, the more hope giving to the countries that want to join, the more likely they will reform themselves, so that they are in a better position to join the EU, that would be a win-win for both sides, the countries wanting to join will have better economic growth and EU countries will have richer, more stable trading partners on its door. As for the candidate countries wanting to join the EU, there isn't really a thing of fast tracking countries into the EU, apart from what the country in question does when it comes to reforms, in other words, the quicker they do the reforms needed to join, the sooner they likely can join, we've seen that play out over many decades where some countries take much longer then others to joins, whiles some join far sooner because they do the changes needed, ironically, Ukraine might find it much easier politically to do the reforms because of the war that's going on, after all, you would have to be a bold positions to go against any of the needed reforms with how strong public support, political support and the impact the war is having, which could speed up the process a lot more than in other countries that keep going back and forth.
Why is then Serbia literally blackmailed to recognize Kosovo in order to one day, perhaps, become a EU member? Why was Cyprus allowed to join as a whole?
Dear TL;DR: You forgot a huge issue around Ukraine. Viktor Orbán is non-stop communicating he will block their goal of joining and will always veto against them, unless they make radical changes in their laws that affect the Hungarian miniroty living in Transylvania AND also while the EU is "holding back" on the EU funds for Hungary. This could be an issue for the EU since Orbán is not backing down because he would lose "face" along their local voters (tho I'm sure they would come up with something in the gov. media channels, sites). I'm sure you can make a TL;DR about the whole story around Orbán vs Ukraine.
More recently, the "chief gynecologist" of the European Union, Ursula von Der Leyen, said that Ukraine had passed "the path of democratization by 90% and was ready to join the EU." And suddenly, the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, declares that as a result of Vladimir Zelensky's actions, there are practically no independent institutions of power in Ukraine, and expresses the opinion that the country is moving towards authoritarianism, in which everything depends on the mood of one person. It looks like a confession. The whole European Union has been deceived!
"Northern Ireland" There speaks someone who doesn't understand the Ulster question at all. Essentially nobody in Northern Ireland wants the territory to be an independent state; the debate is over whether it should be part of Ireland or part of the United Kingdom. If the nationalists ever won their border poll, Northern Ireland would simply become part of the EU as part of Ireland, rather than being a new member state.
@@filipe5722maybe we would accept them if all the refugees that come to our border would be split in the Eu. Romania abd Bulgaria in shengen would make it even worse
I'd put my money firmly on Montenegro. All the other candidates have issues that will take a long time resolving. Albania, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Kosovo and Macedonia are rife with Mafia activity and are also vulnerable to problems related to Islamism. Serbia is skeptical toward the West due to NATO's intervention in Kosovo. Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia all have a Russian military presence within their legal borders. I would love to see NATO and the EU repair their relations with Serbia, though. It's the largest economy of the candidate countries and would be an asset to the union.
It’s clear that you have no clue what you’re talking about. Serbia is a big mafia state. Just look at the relations Vucic son has with some criminal football gangs. There’s a good documentary from Arte if you understand german.
They should allow countries join in batches - First Batch: North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania, Second Batch: Asossciation Trio (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), Third Batch: Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia. Depending how things would go, these is probably most feasible solution to not discourage others. Besides, some countries like Armenia might also apply in near future as they ditch Russia and getting close with the West (Like in 2 or 4 years probably).
I agree with your first batch, they're the least controversial. N Macedonia has a couple problems with neighbours, but I'd consider them fairly minor in the grand scheme of things. Second batch I can't see Georgia getting let in that soon, it's too isolated. Georgia and Armenia would probably have to come in at the same time, and I would say the EU probably wants a closer Turkey before doing that, ideally under a new leader that won't block anything going to those isolated countries. Both of those countries have huge border/territory problems too, with Russia and Azerbaijan. Bosnia could join at the same time as Moldova, Ukraine is too big to let in for quite a long time. Kosovo could still potentially come before Serbia if they ever do decide to join. I think Serbia could isolate itself further from the EU like Turkey.
@@Wozza365Georgia is not isolated as it has access to the Black Sea. If that was the case, they'd never accepted Cyprus in the first place. Territorial disputes don't matter to EU, it's a myth, bleeding over from NATO application.
@@hatman3445 An island is a whole different ball game to Georgia that shares a huge border with Russia and that sea you mention also heavily influenced by Russia. An allied Turkey could be the only safe route were Russia to get more aggressive in the Black Sea. And again on Cyprus, its territorial disputes are much smaller in scale than Georgia, because at least Turkey is a NATO ally (supposedly)
@@Wozza365 You are moving goalpost to just not to admit Georgia into the Union. Georgia has great relations with Tukrey and Erdogan stated that he supports Georgia's EU membership and NATO membership as well, so Turkey would NOT be an issue at all. Second, Russia is not a deterent either when EU is heavily considering to admit Ukraine that is in active war and has more Russian presence in it's territory than Georgia ever had. Sea route is good enough of connection with EU and is comparable to Cyprus because what is Russia to Georgia, Turkey is to Cyprus, so no, it's not different ball game, it's pretty much the same.
It's not a race, it's the ability to align and commit to the EU's norms written into articles 2 & 3 of the Treaty.
Then stop importing people from foreign countries who don’t and never will commit to european norms.
It's not a race, but there are geopolitical pressures at play which are a risk to the long-term security and prosperity of Europe. Both Russia and China have made gains in claiming stakes in the southeast of Europe. China wants influence in Europe and they pursue this primarily through infrastructure partnerships, but they are not an entirely trustworthy superpower. Russia will do anything to weaken European unity inviting trying to describe governments,foster far right nationalust movements and use countries to threaten it's European event. They may have already succeeded in Serbia.
This is not just a matter of following protocol.
@@Wilhelmofdeseret ironic, isn't it?
Yes but the EU norms are created by individual countries
The rampant corruption in some of these countries meet the EU norms. They just have to become a bit less democratic and they should fit in just fine.
What you said about Montenegro is not true. It is not led by a caretaker government right now, a proper coalition and goverment was formed after the recent elections. Also the person shown at 6:45 is the current Prime Minister, who explicitly stated that his number one goal is EU integration. Please take more caution when doing research for your videos.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
@nightbot1788 Idi šetaj opanke i kukaj o kosovu, mani se politike, nije to za tebe.
Zabolje nas Crnogorce !
Mi bi zeljeli naprijed, a vi ostali kako hocete...
Brate smirite se, svi smo ljudska bića sa krv i kožom.. Jebem ti geopolitiku.
pa ti seronjo samo tako razmišljaj i pričaj i nećeš ništa uraditi@nightbot1788 Sramota me vas što prvu priliku nadjete da unižavate druge nacije ko da smo mi neki kurac.
Montenegro formed an actual government in October. We just have to see how long it lasts.
Thats no track record, IT'S BARELY ONE MONTH!
Another 20 years bud😂😂😂
It¨s the longest ruling government we've had in a long time, hopefully, they will continue on the path of joining the EU. @@HueghMungus
I found out today I was gay
@@serbianwarrior385I'm gay my nigga
At 3:50 you say that Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia were NATO member before receiving candidate status, but Montengro joined Nato in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020, so they were not nato members when they received EU candidate status
Yeap the only relatively old Nato member is Albania since 2009.
NATO made huge mistakes in Ukraine and lied and lied to all of the west constantly about the war in Ukraine and the pipeline issue was done by a NATO member. NATO will sense to exists once Trump is re elected in 10 months. EU wants Ukraine in when negotiations have not even started with Russia yet about ending the war and its fate.
He stated that NATO membership often precedes EU membership, not candidate status, he was speaking of the actual EU membership.
Turkey was also a NATO member, he skipped it at that part
the biggest problem the eu needs to solve before enlargement is that its currently way to easy for a single member to stall everything by vetoing major decisions with no real way to eject problem countries its actually kinda incredible that in all the years its existed they never considered what happens if somebody undesirable takes power in a member country or how vetos can be abused
Yeah, all it takes is one state going rogue to fuck everything up
The alternative is that some countries will always get bullied and have to go along with things they don’t like.
With no way to change it or get out. That’s simply unfair and undemocratic.
The current way is the best way, but it becomes more and more if a hindrance with each new member. The EU only has two options to survive: Federalise or disband.
or one could require a 2/3 or 3/4 majority, that way decisions that the majority supports will go through. @@welshed
I'd rather that than bigger countries getting together and forcing legislation against other countries will onto them. Many countries would have exited a long time ago if that was the case.
@@welshedWhat about a multi tiered EU? perhaps France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium can federalize immediately, as they seem to align on most values, and be pro-integration, and the others can join when they are ready, without losing some of the current benefits of the EU?
I am not sure how do you expect Kosovo to join EU when FIVE of its members dont even consider it a real country
Neither Serbia nor Kosovo will enter without first sorting their relationship.
@@filipe5722 That doesnt address my argument
If Serbia recognizes its independence then all other will as well .
Furthermore, Kosovo is not a full member of the UN.
@@excentrik5725 I'm sorry, I assumed you were capable of thinking for yourself without needing me to fill every single logical step. Normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo implies mutual recognition. Serbia recognition of Kosovo is enough for all the five EU members to drop any objections to the recognition of Kosovo. Therefore, no extra step is really needed for Kosovo (and Serbia) to join the EU other than fulfilling the acquis.
As per usual, the best salesman for international alliances (EU,NATO) is Russia.
And then they complain that they have no friends.
@@macanaeh I highly doubt that will ever happen. It's going to have to be a form of Russia that has never existed before
Russia is almost always invaded from the West.
The geography means there is nothing but some rivers to stop armies sweeping up to Moscow
The further west the border is, the narrower the border because mountains.
That's what Napoleon and Hitler both thought, and look how both of them ended. Russia is a huge country.@@julianshepherd2038
@@julianshepherd2038you also can say Russia most often attacked the West. Look at the wars against Finnland, against Poland in 1939 or even in 1914 they provoked entering Germany to support the Austian Hungary empire.
@@GoyFromFinland Do you think that Russia will ask someone if it wants to enter the EU?
I 100% stand by EU expansion, but with the current decision making and voting system, it'll lead to an even more chaotic situation than the present one. I hope they find a way to solve this.
We could use de-balkanisation to reduce the number of EU member states from 27 to about 15-16 states. This will streamline things somewhat.
@fahimshamsuddin672
I think that would be a pretty difficult task, don’t think many members would be into giving away their own sovereignty.
@msl2299 Some like Moldova may do it out of necessity due to security threats like Russia. I think the Balkans and other nations in the Interamriam will also find this useful, too. The reasons are because it protects the new nation from external threats since it is more powerful economically and politically. In addition, the larger economy results in lower prices due to economies in scale. These new states would be multi-ethnic, and the former nations can become the new provincial governments of the unified nation. Ideally, the nation would be a unitary state, but options for a federation, confederate, or containing autonomous provinces also exist.
Just eating popcorn in the middle of the donut but I wonder why many EU-people see enlargement as a good thing?
@pingu6028 imo it's better economically and in terms of security, too, to have an enlarged EU. If the EU didn't have a policy of enlargement, then Russia would continue to expand into this domain. Seeing how Russia has responded to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and others wanting to join the EU, the EU probably felt they had to expand to counter Russia, otherwise Russia would fill the void and gain greater control over the EU. Expansion is a matter of maintaining sovereignty.
Russia fought against German extremism in the first two world wars, which was good. I feel like we are fighting Russian extremism now in a second Cold War. If we win, we can occupy and deradicalise Russia like Germany and integrate them into the UNE. The German economic and social success that followed demonstrates that Russia can be rehabilitated. Putin can also be held accountable unless he flees.
I honestly don't think Turkey stands a chance atleast not under the present president
Never. Turkey will never be trusted.
Also almost all of it is on the asian side continent wise
Belarus has more probability tbh
@@tauceti8060But a large portion of the population is still white? 😅 There's only a tiny amount of people living in the east and the largest is concentrated in the west. Kinda like Russia does it. Yes the geography is small for the western parts, but the population however is big in the small part.
But with Erdogan in power nothing will change for the next 5 years or more :) no EU.
@@tauceti8060 Turkey's location doesn't seem to have hindered it's ability to join the EU. That has been due to other factors. Also, Cyprus is entirely outside Europe geographically but was still able to join.
I don't know why everyone is throwing numbers like mid or late 2020s for some countries' entry when the EU already stated that their objective is to be ready for expansion by 2030. That should be read that only after 2030 will new members be accepted, which makes perfect sense considering the pace of the current reforms, both in the EU and in the candidate countries.
True shit bro. Some people are too excited 😂
In light of Hungary and other countries who have backslid since joining, you'd think they'd work on procedures to boot countries from the EU before they added more. They already have countries that probably subtract more value from the EU than they add.
I have been wondering if other existing members would pass on all the criteria that new members are now subjected to. France for instance is one state that comes to mind.
@@WallaseyanTubeOut of curiosity, France on what counts?
@@WallaseyanTube No. Some of the current EU members would not pass certain recent criteria. National debt not being more than 60% of GDP, par example. But current criteria only apply to new applicants, not to those who are already members.
This addition and subtraction of value is a deceptive thing. These are just dry numbers. For example, it does not include how much these countries raise the GDP of the Powerfuls with cheap labor. Not by chance, they don't get fired...😉
I guess the EU would rather retain some influence over Hungary rather than allow a hostile, undemocratic state on its borders.
"Enlargement Package" must be compensating for something.
Losing Britain lol it's still a body blow to the EU to lose one of it's largest economies, if either France or Germany left also it would end the whole thing immediately
You know how Europe is actually smaller than it appears on a map.
Tiny, especially because of inter-city transport major issues @@sagittariusa7662
@@sagittariusa7662 I always knew that about Russia and Canada but that just clicked for me
Maybe it's cause I always thought of Europe as small anyway.
Iceland and Greenland aren't that big either now that I think about it
A huge chunk of Moldovan citizens have already european citizenship because of Romania, so that’s not a problem, the accession would help Moldova develop economically like Romania had and it’s still is, one of the fastest growing economies on the continent.
Romania the most corrupt EU member and don't even start on Moldova!
Moldova fs aint coming close to join EU 😂😂😂they are probably 10x worst then Albania
The problem with letting Moldova in is the issue with Transnistria. Especially if Russia is able to annex Odessa . Moldova would likely have to get amalgamated into Romania for that to happen. Ignoring that Moldova would be a massive drain on EU coffers.
@@Mitjitsu let Russia have Transnistria. It's not important.
@@chesterdonnelly1212from Moldova perspective, it is. It has always been of great economical value for Moldova. Most of its electricity comes from Transnistria.
Regardless of the fact that Montenegro has made the most progress, they are just the most uncontroversial applicant by far. I don't know what's with some people in the EU seriously thinking that they can ''fast track'' Ukraine and Moldova when some Russian allies have been elected in some EU countries. Slovakia and Hungary's current government in particular are just never letting Moldova and Ukraine join, not unless Russia actually loses the war.
Moldova has a huge pro EU majority in the parliament with one party having that, a pro EU president. Yes, there is transnistria, but Cyprus entered the EU while still having the issue with North Cyprus.
Cyprus gave up on the north as condition to join
Moldova can't
@@mirceazambitchi1151 Yeah but North Cyprus is a Turk separatist region and Turkey is a friend of the EU (in theory anyway.) I'm sure you realize why Transnistria is a bigger issue.
@@giantWario Russia is losing a lot of influence and won't be able to keep up transnistria forever
@@eVill420 Are they though? Cause last I checked, two years ago their only ally in the EU was Hungary and everyone else was firmly pro-Ukraine. You can't really say that's the case anymore now can you?
Russia will lose influence if they actually, you know, lose. If they win the war or just keep this stalemate going for years, I don't see that happening.
I believe countries won’t be accepted one by one but rather in small bunches.
That's what I came to say. In 2s and 3s most likely
There is no bunches. Representatives of the EU already said that every country will join according with progress they have made.
Agreed. As it happened in 2004 and 2007.
Croatia joined alone
It would certainly make sense with Serbia and Kosovo if the EU is interested in either joining, as the will want that conflict sustainably resolved, and bringing both into the EU as sovereign members would actually be a reasonable compromise between Kosovo's desire for independence and western integration, and Serbia's desire for stronger economic ties to Europe, assuming Serbia remains interested.
I think there's a lot of work for most of the member countries listed. In some ways the UK rejoining seems equally (im)plausible.
i been to Albania and being in Albania is no difference then being in italy greece or spain to me albania was not only similar but better and cheaper the best warm people i have ever meet all across europe they will open their house doors and welcome you in
Well its cool, but its significantly less developed than Italy, Spain and even Greece. It might be cheaper, because the locals earn like 1/4 of what average Spanyard earns, like 500 euro after tax. It also struggled with more corruption than Spain or Italy (and Spain and Italy are not the most uncorrupted nations in the EU). But its a nice nation, i guess in one decade they might be in the EU if they progress hard with economy+rule of law.
I think Montenegro and then Albania is more likely. Montenegro is very close to eu values at the moment also has euro which will make the integration into the union more easily
Probably Albania will have to wait, and join together with North Macedonia in a distant future.
Montenegro is basically ruled by serbia after the last elections.
It has strong Serbian links also the Debt with China could be a major issue as it's about 1/3 of its GDB
@@diarmaidmoloney5611Not only links but huge Serbian population
Montenegro has 40% of Serbian population and is too close to Serbia and Albania havent open any chapters with EU.
With the exception of Montenegro, I don't think any of these countries have a realistic chance of joining anytime soon. They all have pretty serious internal and also external problems that are unlikely to get resolved within the next 20 or even 30 years.
And Montenegro doesn't? You watch the news?
@@SmaziSmau-zn7jy What do you mean? Can you be more precise?
Well,
All of the former Warsaw Pact and Post Soviet Union countries had serious problems when they joined the EU. Just being democracies for a really short time. Accession into the EU is what can solve many of these problems. While a few others should be dealt with in the chapters and accession treaty.
The UK will probably be the next country to join the EU.
Alternatively, the EU gives up the pretence that membership is based on making an internally cohesive block and admits it is just granted to spite Russia.
Probably Montenegro will join first, Albania and NM will follow. They have developed a culture, that completing the chapters is beneficial for themselves, so they have the willingness to join.
we applied in 2004, and entered 2013. So about 9 years (Croatia). But we haven't entered Schengen or Eurozone before 2023. Honestly Montenegro, Bosnia&Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo are way too dysfunctional to make much progress. Serbia and Albania could, but their governments are preoccupied with mostly populism to take the admission procedure seriosly. So I honestly doubt seeing any new Balkan members in the next decade. But I hope I'm wrong
This is probably the most realistic and to the point analysis I read here. It's obviously coming from someone understanding the Balkans thoroughly and from the inside, and not only through theoretical knowledge and info, as the (very much admired) authors of this channel mostly do. I wonder how come Montenegro is so much ahead in the accomplished steps and chapters than others, when it's a country basically run by a few families, is ripe with nepotism, corruption, and is built partially on mafia money from the 90s onward, and partially on the money coming from the Russian oligarchs and shady businessmen investing in real estate and land in the 00s and early 10s. I'd honestly like if someone could explain this to me, maybe I don't have the updated info, but I'd love to understand how come they managed to "wash their hands" from that legacy so fast and efficiently to make the EU commission believe they're the most integrated of the new member candidates.
@lafabias1876 That's the thing, Montenegro really didn't do that much. Think of it as taking a test, and in over a decade, you only wrote your name on it and answered 3/33 questions. Some of these chapters, like judicial and economic parts are tough, but some reforms could have been made ages ago, but that would hurt people with connections to the government. That's what happened to Turkey. They really didn't do much in the last 15-20 years in the application process, simply because it's against personal interests od Erdogan. It's easier to wine how "Europe doesn't want us". Similar to Serbians goverments views sometimes.
Montenegro has a massive problem even without all the stuff you mentioned. They don't even have a currency bruh. They use Euro illegally and simply roll with it. They blankly stated that since they are in the process of EU integration it's only a matter of time they achieve Maastricht criteria for Eurozone so what's the point of making a currency just for the time in-between. You can imagine the face on Brussels birocrats after reading that idea lmao
@@lafabias1876Huh, please do update the info, after the 2020 elections, Montenegro changed a lot.
For Serbia to join they must drop the Kosovo issue and accept de jure loss of territory. And even then some other neighbour like Croatia can block Serbia's entry to the EU. Serbia doesn't really have a chance.
Most realistic man here,good comment Croatian neighbor, greetings from Serbia
Not only Serbia (all the issues it has and how much is messed up is some another story), the EU itself and its double standards can be blamed for the decreasing pro-EU attitude in Serbia. The majority of Serbian citizens are neither pro-EU nor anti-EU, but they absolutely don't giva sh*t about the EU. Here, the EU is perceived as an extremely hypocritical organization where one country has one set of criteria and another has completely different criteria. Some countries have to fulfill a million conditions and others are enough to whine. While Serbia had to fulfill a million (primarily political) conditions for each next step, some others were on the ''fast track'' without having to fulfill any of the necessary criteria and conditions. Whether someone liked it or not, the fact is that apart from the (alleged) political will of Ukraine and Moldova to enter the EU, they do not meet any other criteria. In all fields, in terms of level of development and progress, they are years, if not decades, behind Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia, but within a few months they reached the status for which the Balkan countries had to pay blood, even the level of corruption, human rights, free market, freedom of speech is beyond terrible. Another very important factor in the diminishing positive attitude towards the EU is the EU's attitude towards the current Serbian government. Because the EU completely ignores the pro-EU opposition, 100% supports the autocrat in power, helps a person who is a copy of Orban to keep that power and considers him the only man to speak with in Serbia. For this reason, many people who were strongly in favor of the EU are slowly shifting their opinion, myself included. All in all, the EU itself has missed many opportunities with the Western Balkans and I think that those deceptions about the revived idea of enlargement no longer hold water and that no one cares so much about it anymore, nor does the EU have that magnetic power anymore because it offers basicaly nothing. Just double standards and nicely packaged blackmails. The general attitude in Serbia is that it would be best for us to be part of the European Economic Zone, like Switzerland, Iceland or Norway. To have solid economic, trade and business ties, a visa-free regime, but without unnecessary and endless negotiations about potential, or rather never feasible, membership. I think everyone would be relieved if this charade gonna stopped. By the way, Russia's influence in Serbia, believe it or not, is miserable. Neither is there a strong economic, cultural or any kind of exchange. Nobody buys Russian products (there's no any of tham at all), nor speaks Russian, nor do ordinary people care about Russia. The current Government is using Russia's veto power in UN because of Kosovo, and as a bogeymanin the West in order to get some benefit. Cheers!
Finally someone from around these parts telling how people really feel. I love when someone EUxplains to me from like urban Belgium how things are in my country and how our government is good because they "want" the EU.
Extremely helpful having a visual guide for this!
Georgia is about to get the candidate status in about 10 days (EU Commission recommendation to be rubber stamped by the Council) and you should have also mentioned Georgia's progress on chapters which is better than several other discussed
Are you from Georgia? Lmao
Indeed. That was quite a strange omission. Georgia still needs reform but it certainly has a better chance than say, Turkey, or Serbia. Still unlikey to join pre-2030, but at least its likely to join eventually.
Georgia is an Orthodox country. A lot of people do not accept EU values.
@@henrybn14ar So is Greece. And Bulgaria.
@@henrybn14ar since when is Orthodoxy a problem? As already replied Bulgaria and Greece are also Orthodox countries. Besides, was not European values based on Christian values?
Anyway, regardless of this philosophical discussion, check opinion polls of Georgia - support of EU membership is steadily 80%+, so, respectfully your argument does not make sense in this context
Update: Georgia got EU candidate status few days ago
As someone that recently visited Bosnia and Montenegro the fact Montenegro has the Euro and also has stronger cultural links with current EU countries, it's the only one I think would fit with the EU. The biggest issue with Montenegro is its debt from building a vanity road project to nowhere significant as they ran out of money.
It was built by the Chinese and the debt it has with China could be something that holds them back.
The road project even though it was never finished cost over 1 billion Euro in a country with only a population of 600,000 people.
Montenegro has strongest Serbian cultural links with 40% Serbian population. They aint joining EU
Yes, I can see some links, but by reading the European Commission report (Montenegro 2022) the chances are slim. The country has many opened chapters with "limited progress". It takes much more than just culture and tourism for a country to join the EU.
@@Signe0184 The Serbs like the way that Russia does business with "special military operations" they do not like NATO or the E.U.
@@TheSouth-j7f not quite, it is a plain generalisation and not every Serb thinks like that. But yes NATO is generally unpopular because of the war in 1999. Many Serbs did not know what was happening in Kosovo, and NATO bombed northern Serbia which led to many civilian deaths. Also propaganda against NATO was very strong and it is still hard to change that narrative.
The EU is becoming less popular as well, that is true, which is again affected by limited freedom of speech and the main political party's propaganda and influence. But there are Serbs who would like to join the EU, and I think that even more Serbs would change their negative opinion regarding the EU if the current government and political parties start focusing on it. It became a subject that was pushed aside.
thats why you don't let china
Hey I think you misspoke during the candidate status part of the video (around the 4 minute mark). Montenegro and North Macedonia did not join NATO until fairly recently (2017 and 2020 respectively). So they become candidates before becoming NATO memebers
First we need to get rid of the unanimity stuff. It cannot be that one or two countries can hold the whole EU hostage.
It can't be foreigners bypassing national democracies to hold the people of a member state hostage.
@@Besthinktwice Especially the national politicians, they have still have some loyalty to their people. The foreign politicians don't. They should not decide what happens to a different people, that can't vote for or against them.
thats because you dont understand the EU, if a decision goes thru and its going to hurt a country's economy or something else, that country has the full right to say no and stop the entire organization from letting the vote go thru, ukraine and moldova are such cases because they do not hold to many of EU's requirements and they are there for a very good reason,
one of which is to keep the currency stable, second is to keep illegal arms, and illegal drugs from entering the EU which Ukraine especially has a lot of, and to keep refugees out, this is because once Ukraine and moldova enter, they need to hold to the shengen border policy meaning they have to open their borders to the rest of the EU, opened to wide there is not a single sign of protection, only thing telling you that you are crossing the border is a sign.
and what you have to know is that this way of voting was thought out exactly because of the fact that if a vote came and it was going to hurt a EU member state even slightly it could be outright refused by that one country, this is so that they cant do voting in the EU to hurt another EU state, a form of internal EU punishment, because that EU country can simply vote no and get it thrown into the trash can
but hey i dont mind either way, if ukraine and moldova join its going to collapse the EU because they, especially ukraine, is so far from reaching the requirements its going to take the whole EU down with its massive issues like having a population that wants to flee conscription, and heavy amounts of corruption aswell as the lack of democratic pratices (zelensky cancelled upcomming elections) and once that happens everyone will be free from the euro and be able to control their own currency, inflation, deflation and rules again.
Well if we get old voting system (the one that does not promote big countries) then why not
Once all criteria is met, bring them all in.
You made a factual mistake at 3:49 - Montenegro was not a member of NATO until 2017, after they had been granted EU candidate status.
Same with Macedonia in 2020
Interesting video, strange studio lighting. Might be something to do with the bright sign in the background?
Montenegro is in fact not run by a caretaker government for more then a month now
3:45 “within three years of their application” whilst showing a graph displaying the opposite, showing gaps of up to 12 years in Turkey’s case
The answer is - none. The EU will cease to exist before any of those countries manages to get in. They should better look for other options. Greetings from Serbia, we are looking for prosperity not decline, sorry, but not interested in it any more ❤️
Extremely interesting .Thank you!
The question is which one will leave next
As a Turk I think we shouldnt join EU. We are very different from the western of point and to the eastern point of view. We just should be our own and make a special deals with both EU, Russia, and Middle East countries and be a buffer zone between them. Both EU and Türkiye should realize we are different and thats okey lets just cooperate on our mutual interests and be a good neighbors each other.
As a Greek, I find it very sad that Turkey is going through a really bad phase due to bad politics.
I hope that's not going to last much longer and all problems will be solved
to allow Turkey to move on with the times.
I think, what you are saying is the same reason the Ottoman empire collapsed.
Culture must keep downloading updates or vanish.
PS: "Cyprus must re-unite. We are all neighbours and we should be friends and co-operate."
That sounds good to me. Not only for countries but also for people in general.
yeah as a Turk I feel similar to you and liberal Turks who simp for EU annoy me
I wish you in Turkey would agree to create a Middle Eastern version of the EU with at least half-sane countries like Turkey, Israel, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Oman, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Bahrain
@@clivesmith9377 Yes we have very bad politicians but they are just the mirror of the population sadly and its gonna take at least 3 decades to put things on the track with education and economic wise. And actually I'm a Turkish Cypriot living in Türkiye and I dont think Cyprus should re-unite. Turks were ready there and we did everything we could to end the conflict and unite but the south dont wanna share any power with us any time soon so either we should be independent or be a autonomous region of Türkiye.
Definitely not the U.K. that's for sure
I would rather expect Scotland to get independent and rejoin before the UK would
@@rain-cy6vethat's not gonna happen as long as nationalism is at an all time low & the country itself is a mess
Papau new guinea for sure.
The UK just needs to get into a position where it has the political will to rejoin. So far there is regret over leaving but that's not quite the same thing - for the moment the issue is stuck in the pile of "too hard, and we have other problems to deal with".
But once we've got over that hump, we should be able to speed through the chapters much more quickly than other countries, because we've already been aligned with the EU whilst in it, and tbh haven't diverged that radically since leaving (mostly we've just ended up creating extra paperwork for ourselves, which is ironic for all those "cut Brussels red tape" guys).
@@alexpotts6520 the problem is that in order to get trade deals with other countries the UK is willing to relax their standards (for example allowing foods from the USA that are banned in the EU). so the longer they are on their own the more they will drift from the EU rules.
and the EU has said that they won't make any "special deals" with prospected members, so the UK will have to accept the EURO and full Schengen, and those are a big pill to swallow for the British people, especially the ones that voted for Brexit.
so it might take a lot more effort for the UK to rejoin the EU than they think/hope it will be.
One correction, the prime minister you showed for the face of Montenegro's caretaker government is actually the prime minister of the newly elected government that started working this October, we had a caretaker government before that.
I'd bet for Montenegro to join first, maybe in tandem with Albania, and if it all goes swell also Serbia and Kosovo, all of them in a big Balkan package.
North Macedonia would probably get in there at the same time as well. I think it would be a solid trio if they can be brought in at the same time.
Albania is currently run as a de-facto mafia state, so it would require a massive (almost miraculous!) societal transformation for them to catch up with Montenegro.
I think North Macedonia will catch up faster than Albania.
Nope.Serbia is blackmailed to recognize Kosovo in order to one day, maybe, become part of EU.
We can't do that.
I would say Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, and then maaaaaybe Serbia and Kosovo. Speaking from lived experiences in Serbia, and with a few friends from Kosovo, the whole thing is an ugly frozen conflict. Imagine Cypriot politicians waving promises of retaking the north while aiming to errode democratic institutions, and the same happening in the north. That is what we have now. Even the democratic opposition is heavily fragmented, and organized crime will make sure any reform will go extremely slow. That's not even starting with the horrible situation regarding Belgrade - Prishtina relations. Neither side is willing to give way, and Albanians in Serbia as well as Serbs in Kosovo are suffering with their lives for it. Maybe some day it becomes better, but as it stands, there is so much hatred that if they had a choice between a candidate that gets them into the EU in one week, and a candidate which exterminates the other country's population in one week, they would pick the second one in a landslide.
Small chances for Serbia due to their very obvious friendship with Russia
What Ukraine is doing is simply incredible! Many of the candidate countries are not at war and do not suffer losses in the economy and many other sectors of the country, I believe that Ukraine will be ready to join the EU in 2030, there is a lot to do, but we have already taken the first full-fledged steps towards the EU, it remains only to end the war and reform the economy, and then the path to the EU will be open for us! 🇺🇦🇪🇺
Ukraine is USA's corrupted little puppet money laundering machine of a country, it will never join EU/NATO as USA has no need for it.
With all due respect, this is highly unlikely
Montenegro and albania i would assume are next
Upcoming local elections in Moldova? Those already happened like 3 weeks ago. Instead you could've talked about how the elections exemplify how Moldova is still battling with oligarchy...
Brexit was the greatest advert for EU membership they could have ever hoped for
Next to the ruSSian invasion of Ukraine.
@@Besthinktwice Reform the EU and lay down specific tiers of integration. There's already differences but not well defined. That way countries that want to integrate further can do so and countries that don't can stay that way, while all are still in the same organization.
If this was already the case the UK might have never left and kept its involvement with the EU mostly economical, while the rest of western europe could be much more integrated than it is now, delegating more and more to a central eu governament.
I live in Switzerland - trust me, at least here that was not the lesson taken home.
@@VinnieMFthey should roll back the powers to that of what was the EEC.. Taxation and Red Tape by Multi overlapping governments are sucking the life blood out both business and the worker.
what?@@Shadowguy456234
Inaccurate statement at 3:50 because North Macedonia joined NATO in 2019 after the name change so that couldn't affect candidate status in 2005
Like this, would be keen on more about albania though
It will be a poor one, wanting a long-term subsidy - and it probably won't have considered that the EU will suck its young away (vide Romania).
I would urge the EU to consider the security implications of extending membership. If the EU wouldn't be prepared to put military forces into an applicant country before accession, it probably shouldn't be offering membership.
Good video.
EU is not about military. You join Nato for that.
Eu should focus on internal migration.
@@baird5682 EU does have it's own version of NATO article 5. Specifically article 42.7 "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power."
@baird5682 The EU has a clear military dimension to it - both on terms of military production and military operations. Last year we saw the crazy situation when threatened Finland and Sweden were being offered protection by a Brexited UK while the EU did less.
Well u aint putting EU military in Serbia thats fs😂We already have 49th strongest military in the world and stronger military then most EU countries
@@serbianwarrior385 sure and russia has 2nd army in the world.
- I agree with the analysis on Montenegro.
- With regards to the other Balkan nations, It wouldn't make sense to not split the application of all 3 countries within the Open Balkans initiative as they are making joined efforts in reforms. It seems valuable enough to keep it is a sub-political union like the Benelux, Baltic Assembly or Nordic Counsil. Purely based on timing, it would make sense to add the countries of Open Balkans before Bosnia, unless Bonsia joins the Open Balkan. (they weren't a big fan of admission)
- With regards to Ukraine and Georgia I wouldn't try to push it. The EU isn't ready (yet) for dealing with the aftermath (or an active) armed conflict.
- Adding Georgia would only make sense if the "stronghold" could be a bit bigger by adding Armenia as a candidate and by Supporting and collaborating with a more developed Turkic league containing Turkey, Kazachstan and Azerbeidjan. It would also help in finding a new balance in the relationship with Turkey. I think they also wouldn't mind that scenario themselves.
In any case, as said in many TLDR videos before: The EU should, in parallel with the expansion, have some internal reforms, like a.o. (1) removing the Veto right (which blocked the admission of Roemania and Bulgaria to Shengen - If border control isn't up to par, like the Austrians or Dutch say, then make joint investment in those countries so that it can be. That is what European coöperation should look like.- ), (2) Updating the representative number within the EU parliament, (3) strengthening a EU joined defense that is more independent from NATO and (4) finding a way to handle the representation of regions that are in current EU countries, but want to reshape. (e.g. a method to handle a situation like the split of Czecho-Slowakia, but within a context of the European union. Basically a playbook where both parts can keep their membership without re-applying, with some strict rules about non-violence, guaranteeing rights for ethnic or linguistic minorities, etc, ...)
The veto shouldn’t be removed, it should just require more than one country (two or three) and those countries should represent 5-10% of the EU population. There are lots of stupid Southern European ideas that absolutely must stay blocked!
Romania is not on balkan migration route , as for Bulgaria when they push back the migrants they have abuse acusations. Meanwhile 100k of migrants arive in Lampadusia in Italy and Ceuta in Spain
Montenegro has huge Serbian population and we can make chaos in Montenegro so no they aint joining EU anytime soon
3:49 "all countries received candidate ... With in 3 years"
Turkey didn't...
Expansion is always welcome, but I would be most thrilled if Switzerland, UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein showed interest in joining.
Also the remaining non-Euro members joining the Eurozone would be great.
UK💀
Unfortunately Switzerland and UK will most likely never join... The UK just left, and joining doesn't help Switzerland in any way.
@@Rider9530 I think we'll probably try to rejoin eventually but it won't be anytime soon. Maybe in 20 years from now it'll happen.
@@bestrafung2754 Maybe but I don't think that will happen any time soon, especially considering that if the UK rejoin this time they will have to join the eurozone and switch currency... I just don't see them doing it.
Nah man, UK needs to be made an example of unless they are willing to rejoin unconditionally, no special positions.
Love this channel
What would be real cost for Ukraine if they would like do reforms as fast as possible? Their country is under huge pressure because of Russian war. Probably if they will go "All-In" into Europe then Europe would have problems in saying "No" and avoiding support.
Ukraine will be the gold mine for both sides.
1) Ukraine has a large youth population that will move west. This will bring back remittance for Ukraine too
2) Resources. They have lots. Agriculture and energy alone would be big; and there will be financial resources coming in into Ukraine as well for these.
Only issue is GeoPolitics of Russia and Turkey as well.
Countries in active wars can't join EU or NATO
@@baha3alshamari152 Russia officially says that this is not a war
@@Misiok89so? Who cares what they say?
@@Misiok89
Ukraine says and as long as there's bombing and fighting then it's an active war according to EU
Very clear and informative.
UPDATE: Georgia received European Union Candidate status yesterday!!!!
Serbia beautiful County and people...deserve more respect...and finally to understanding its people...
Hopefully Scotland! 🏴
If that where the case then the EU is gonna be waiting a very long time unfortunetly
Well we can dream!
@@kevinh4869yes, the freedom to polute rivers and seas
@@kevinh4869I'm really pleased it amuses you.
@@roberttewnion1690scotland has alot of issues to fix before independence can be brought up in the conversation.
Those issues going on hasn't been brought up or targeted by nationalist parties which is why nationalism is at a low, the SNP itself is in shambles so that doesn't help.
You should have mentioned the North Macedonia problem with Bulgaria.
USA is main factor in the game, bulgars is just a russian satelite, Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro in EU until 2028, than bulgarias passport business in balkans will collapsed
In my view, I think it would be prudent for the EU to prioritize its economic well-being, focus on economic development, and enhance border control measures before considering the inclusion of a new member.
yes
So glad its monday tldr is backkkkk
EU expansionists are operating under the premise that more members means a stronger and more effective EU. However, any organization is strongest when all members share the same goals and thus 'pull together.' Allowing new members into the EU will weaken the organization, as they will have different values and objectives, and work against what other members are trying to accomplish. On top of that, the EU took a huge financial hit when the UK left, and any candidate states are obviously going to be net recipients at a time when Germany and France are already beginning to resent bearing almost all the financial load. The EU would gain more by a restructuring to stop current members like Hungary and Slovakia from impeding EU goals than by admitting even more divergent countries.
in the short term you are right, in the long term (about half a century) it is better to have a large territory and a large population, this is because in the future the world will be dominated by superpowers.
So the right path is a balance between the two, that is, a very slow expansion, so that every small enlargement does not constitute a shock to the economy of the remaining nations. The first enlargement will concern Blackmountain, Albania and North Macedonia, which together have a small population and should not burden the rest of the countries excessively. The challenge will be the entry of Ukraine, a nation devastated by war, however this nation will enter not before 10 years and in the meantime it is hoped that the economy of the continent will improve and that the gap between the nations that pay and those that receive becomes increasingly smaller.
Tongue in cheek, The newly automonous region of Dumfries and Galloway UK..
praying for Montenegro membership 🇲🇪
i believe that Montenegro will join either on its own or with the UK applying to rejoin, but it’s neighbors will probably join in a bunch a while after
@@DunDeeoZ Actual free Trade?
Then what's Schengen? Why doesn't it count?
I'm just confused btw.
@@DunDeeoZ the uk’s economy isn’t doing too well after leaving, there wasn’t really a reason for them to actually leave. i also think the eu should be used so that other countries which aren’t as well off can develop and integrate into more developed European markets. we can’t be 100% sure the uk is gonna rejoin but imo there’s a pretty high chance
@@vainoue9173
The U.K. economy is doing better than expected, all the gloom and doom prophecies were proven wrong.
It is not always about the economy, the U.K. will not be joining, why should it? To subsidise other new countries to catch up????
Are you for real?
I'm surprised North Macedonia isn't closer after thr conclusion pf their name dispute with Greece.
It’s cause the Mongolians on the East refuse to let us in because they think we’re “West Bulgaria” and that our language is the same as theirs but as a different dialect which is not true
I believe Montenegro will be next. I welcome our south Slavic friends to the union and I wish them a speedy accession. Together we are stronger 🇸🇪🤝🇲🇪
Huge appreciations for the support !
Hopefully, by 2030 at the latest we will be able to join.
@@MrThemnebossNo u wont😂especially if we know Serbian population is raising and we can stop u anytime we want😂
Sorry bro but Montenegro has 40+% Serbian population and we can stop them from joining EU anytime we want.Montenegro also has huge culture links with Serbia
@@serbianwarrior385 I think we should leave those decisions to the people of Montenegro to decide that for themselves 👍
@@Greksallad Well i just told u that almost half of population is Serbian and many others are pro Serbian.If they start getting too much from Serbia we will have to bring them back to us.Thats just how geopolitics work.They are pro EU but if they start going against Serbs then we can all expect chaos in Montenegro
I find it funny the olny reason why BiH got candidate status is becauae Croatia made a big fuss about it.
I feel sorry for every country trying to join now having to deal with that green transition category in the approval process.
If the government will change in Turkiye, they may speed up and end up accession negotiation talks, which Turkey opened 28 and end more than 6…
7:39 It's NORTH Macedonia!!!!!!! 7:21
Да ја ебам мајка ти!
Translation:Macedonians love you!
I'm having the biggest deja vu watching this...
i've seen this before, sitting at the same table, eating the same dinner...
I think people do not realize how hard it is from the perspective of these countries to actually join the EU. For instance, Ukraine formally decided it wants to join a year ago. Some countries like Serbia really do not want to join at all (according to public opinion). Half of Bosnia wants in, half does not. Ukraine is in war. Moldova is well, who knows?.... etc... In comparison, look at my country - Croatia - which joined in 2013, 10 years ago - the whole country, every significant political party, every man and woman decided by a political and citizens consensus that we belong and will join the EU as soon as possible BACK in 1990!!! The whole country worked to reform our country to be able to fulfill that goal for grueling TWENTY THREE YEARS without much distractions until we finally joined. And another TEN YEARS for Schengen and Euro. The only county among all mentioned which does not have 2nd thoughts and/or 5th column is Albania, but overthere I do not see the sheer determination we Croatians had for joining the EU. For us it was almost the question of life and death, and regardless, it took us 23 years. TWENTY THREE YEARS! The only country for which the EU is a life or death question is Ukraine, a country in War. And in War, no matter how bad you want the EU, first you must survive, just as we Croatians did from 1990 to 1995. Ukraine will simply have to deal with Russia before it continues on its EU path. In conclusion, I do not see any country joining the EU in the next 10 years. The only hope for them is a plan similar to one Macron proposed recently - a kind of watered down EU - just to keep them going until a leader emerges - the one who will implement a real reforms and bring them into the EU fold.
Many people are completely unaware that Ukraine's accession to the EU will be at the expense of the entire Eastern Europe, which will become a NET payer and will finance the reconstruction of Ukraine against its national interests. For example, is financing the Ukrainian transport and agricultural sector in the interest of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania? Not at all. The case of Ukraine is completely different from other countries.
well, we did pull our weight to join the eu but that is fairly easy for a country of our size. ukraine has fundamental problems and a history of corruption that croatia, a corrupt country by local standards never could even dream of. overthrowing the government for a pro-eu one that shakes things up resulting in a 8 year civil war with newborn seperatists that ends up in a full blown invasion by russia? yeah, thats a tough sell for anyone looking for any kind of trade partners/alliances.
you must not compare the likes of croatia and slovenia where everything leading to and after their independence was decided by referendum with the likes of ukraine.
@@robertgrabowski The people of Eastern Europe are not beggers nor welfare addicts. We are here to build the Union. If it means we will help rebuild Ukraine, so be it. The union will only be stronger for it.
@@HicHicpa You are right, it will be hard. But mark my words, Ukraine will join the EU before Serbia, because it has the will and the resolve to do it - the very things Serbia lacks.
europhiles are the real fifth column
Would say that Macedonia and Montenegro have the highest chance of joining sooner... The rest will wait for a long time... Mainly Turkey, Kosovo and Georgia
I think Montenegro will be next country to join. It‘s a small country, so it wouldn‘t give much turbulences for the EU. Montenegro also has the euro and is member of the nato. In the last few years and also in the future years the tourism and also the GDP increase much. The biggest problems are the dept and the political issues. Since more than 1 month Montenegro has a new government and it‘s ambition is to join the EU. It‘ll become interesting how the situation develop in the next months. 🇨🇭❤️🇲🇪
Königsberg followed by Karelia
The EU needs to put a pause on expansion. There are right now a multitude of issues that it already can't handle, because the bloc is so fractured. One major issue being migration of course. Let's get the house in order first and then think about expansion, alright?
absolutely !
There has already been a pause for the last decade. EU should act fast or lose the Western Balkans forever.
This wave of expansion is starting precissely because of the migrant crisis. Europe needs labour but it doesn’t need social unrest and officials in Brussels have come to a conclusion that it will be easier to assimilate other non EU Europeans that have a proven record of easy assimilation then imigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
Correct, but we should accept Ukraine 🇺🇦fastest is possible.
@@torcidasplithr7758 no we should not Ukraine should stay neutral with international guarantees Uraine is a black corrupted hole it could be a cause for collapsing the EU.
We kinda need a system to kick countries out rather than expanding, or maybe there should be conciderations seperating the union into cultural regions and corporate that way when it comes to social questions (like a central/eastern, western and southern union) it's getting too inhomogeneous to keep people facing into the same direction
BG❣❤❣RS
БЪЛГАРИЯ И СЪРБИЯ - ВЕЧНИ БРАТЯ ЗАВИНАГИ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank u brother, respect to our neighbors in Bulgaria from Serbia
Oh, I see Transnistria doesn't have to be resolved for Moldova, but Kosovo has to for Serbia. How nice.
Only Montenegro and Albania have real chance to Join EU in the next 10 to 15 years. Rest of the countries will wait for a very long time if they ever join the EU at all.
Fingers crossed for Scotland, if not next then soon.
100% Scotland will be back, Brexit has been a disaster for us, we didnt want it and the lies during the referendum show the fraud that the UK is
the EU will never accept ecosse into their club... scotland is bankrupt ...corrupt to the core,,..a 3rd world country in the making...( i should know. i stay there)...
I wouldn't be so sure that the expansion is "back on the menu". Further expansion is one of the main levers that France and Germany and other pro treaty reform countries are dangling over Hungary, Poland and other anti treaty reform countries. At least currently, France and Germany and others are pretty determined that there will be no expansion without treaty reform most significantly getting rid of unanimity voting and the veto.
Poland will soon be back on track of being pro-EU country (after 2023 election), so it's only Hungary from now on
Quite helpful!
My guess: Scotland! ;)
Well, at least if they actually do the necessary steps prior. ;)
Not going to happen. Support for independence is in freefall now the SNP's corruption has finally been exposed.
Thank you Kordanor, as a Scot, I confirm that most people, are desperate to get out of the UK prison and have a seat at the EU table. We strongly supported the EU, after the fraud committed by the UK during our referendum
Do you have a video covering the calls to reform of voting rights of member states that some have claimed are required for further enlargement?
Montenegro and Albanian
Assuming that any new country can join by 2030-35, that's likely enough time to allow enough of the current eastern EU members to have closed the gap with western EU countries for them to not be as much of a burden, some could even be paying in the EU pot by then, that should help to make it easier to bring in new countries.
But for me, money isn't the real issue and isn't really the selling point of why countries should want to join the EU, the best reasons are stability, security, rules change, all of which will create a lot of economic growth, that's far more important than hand-outs from the EU to those countries, as it will create a lot of stability which will in time bring in a lot of inwards investment.
The real problem I find is the EU institutions, major reforms are needed before the EU can expend, especially on veto and majority voting rules, and until those reforms are done, I don't think it's wise for the EU to allow any new country to join, I also think if some countries become stubborn on trying to stop reforms, a core group of EU countries should find a way to go ahead and do the reforms in areas that they can, either way, it's crazy for any EU country to think things can stay as it is, because even thought it's working, it's creaking under its own weight, reforms should have been done years ago but now it's becoming urgent.
Regardless of how reforms or the attempt to reform the EU goes over the coming years, I see no reason why the EU and its countries can't create closer relations with the countries that want to join, the more hope giving to the countries that want to join, the more likely they will reform themselves, so that they are in a better position to join the EU, that would be a win-win for both sides, the countries wanting to join will have better economic growth and EU countries will have richer, more stable trading partners on its door.
As for the candidate countries wanting to join the EU, there isn't really a thing of fast tracking countries into the EU, apart from what the country in question does when it comes to reforms, in other words, the quicker they do the reforms needed to join, the sooner they likely can join, we've seen that play out over many decades where some countries take much longer then others to joins, whiles some join far sooner because they do the changes needed, ironically, Ukraine might find it much easier politically to do the reforms because of the war that's going on, after all, you would have to be a bold positions to go against any of the needed reforms with how strong public support, political support and the impact the war is having, which could speed up the process a lot more than in other countries that keep going back and forth.
Without the Western Balkans the EU will always have a very awkward enclave along with Switzerland
Not sure why Moldova would be an issue when Cyprus is already a member
Why is then Serbia literally blackmailed to recognize Kosovo in order to one day, perhaps, become a EU member?
Why was Cyprus allowed to join as a whole?
Is this like the cool kids club ????
As long as they meet the criteria it’s all fine!!
Dear TL;DR: You forgot a huge issue around Ukraine. Viktor Orbán is non-stop communicating he will block their goal of joining and will always veto against them, unless they make radical changes in their laws that affect the Hungarian miniroty living in Transylvania AND also while the EU is "holding back" on the EU funds for Hungary. This could be an issue for the EU since Orbán is not backing down because he would lose "face" along their local voters (tho I'm sure they would come up with something in the gov. media channels, sites). I'm sure you can make a TL;DR about the whole story around Orbán vs Ukraine.
Ukraine has nothing to do with transylvania tf are you talking about
Do you mean Transcarpathia?
@@geronimo6351I think he means Transcarpathia region at the ukrainian-hungarian border.
Oh yess, my bad. Thanks for correcting me!@@GG-zk3de
I hope he will and other will follow
More recently, the "chief gynecologist" of the European Union, Ursula von Der Leyen, said that Ukraine had passed "the path of democratization by 90% and was ready to join the EU."
And suddenly, the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, declares that as a result of Vladimir Zelensky's actions, there are practically no independent institutions of power in Ukraine, and expresses the opinion that the country is moving towards authoritarianism, in which everything depends on the mood of one person.
It looks like a confession. The whole European Union has been deceived!
Hoping for Scotland or north Ireland to be next member.
😅😅😅😅😅
Northern Ireland will never be an independent member. If they leave the UK it will be to unify with the rest of Ireland
"Northern Ireland"
There speaks someone who doesn't understand the Ulster question at all. Essentially nobody in Northern Ireland wants the territory to be an independent state; the debate is over whether it should be part of Ireland or part of the United Kingdom. If the nationalists ever won their border poll, Northern Ireland would simply become part of the EU as part of Ireland, rather than being a new member state.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Scotland and 'North Ireland' would have their application vetoed by Spain.
Blue... enlargement... looks like my mailbox
The EU should first accept Bulgaria and Romania into Schengen before expanding.
The EU institutions already decided on that. It's stubborn countries like Austria that keep vetoing it.
@@filipe5722maybe we would accept them if all the refugees that come to our border would be split in the Eu. Romania abd Bulgaria in shengen would make it even worse
Nothing to do with Austria
Its a migration problem
In Hungary there are 30 asylum seeker in Austria it is 100000 even if they are similar size
@@goenzoy yes that's the problem. They all instantly leave hungary for Austria. Which would get even worse if there are less borders between us
@@goenzoy It has everything to do with Austria. They already admited that Romania and Bulgaria are not a problem regarding migration.
I'd put my money firmly on Montenegro. All the other candidates have issues that will take a long time resolving. Albania, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Kosovo and Macedonia are rife with Mafia activity and are also vulnerable to problems related to Islamism. Serbia is skeptical toward the West due to NATO's intervention in Kosovo. Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia all have a Russian military presence within their legal borders.
I would love to see NATO and the EU repair their relations with Serbia, though. It's the largest economy of the candidate countries and would be an asset to the union.
Macedonia does not have a mafia problem lmao
Montenegro has a bigger Mafia problem than Albania. In fact they are 4 or 5th in Europe for organised crime and Serbia second after Russia per ICW.
Repairing relations with Serbia is an impossible task after events in the last 30 years.
It’s clear that you have no clue what you’re talking about. Serbia is a big mafia state. Just look at the relations Vucic son has with some criminal football gangs. There’s a good documentary from Arte if you understand german.
Every country that was forced to join the eu is not happy. Thats the understatement of the century
No country was 'forced' to join the EU. Wtf are you talking about.
After that video in some days georgia got also candidate status
In the map edit you added 5 countries that aren't in the EU Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San marino and Vatican city
None of them are "real" countries hahaaaa
Are you sure the map has resolution that detailed?
Yeh well they at least adopted the Euro and are part of the Eurozone so they remained. UK and norther cyprus still accept the Euro
@@khaluu2000 what do you mean, UK definitely does not and never has accepted the euro
@@phil2544 Yes it does, Andorra is clearly visible.
I think you forgot to mark Bosnia and Herzegovina on the thumbnail!
They should allow countries join in batches - First Batch: North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania, Second Batch: Asossciation Trio (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), Third Batch: Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia. Depending how things would go, these is probably most feasible solution to not discourage others. Besides, some countries like Armenia might also apply in near future as they ditch Russia and getting close with the West (Like in 2 or 4 years probably).
I agree with your first batch, they're the least controversial. N Macedonia has a couple problems with neighbours, but I'd consider them fairly minor in the grand scheme of things. Second batch I can't see Georgia getting let in that soon, it's too isolated. Georgia and Armenia would probably have to come in at the same time, and I would say the EU probably wants a closer Turkey before doing that, ideally under a new leader that won't block anything going to those isolated countries. Both of those countries have huge border/territory problems too, with Russia and Azerbaijan. Bosnia could join at the same time as Moldova, Ukraine is too big to let in for quite a long time. Kosovo could still potentially come before Serbia if they ever do decide to join. I think Serbia could isolate itself further from the EU like Turkey.
@@Wozza365Georgia is not isolated as it has access to the Black Sea. If that was the case, they'd never accepted Cyprus in the first place. Territorial disputes don't matter to EU, it's a myth, bleeding over from NATO application.
@@hatman3445 An island is a whole different ball game to Georgia that shares a huge border with Russia and that sea you mention also heavily influenced by Russia. An allied Turkey could be the only safe route were Russia to get more aggressive in the Black Sea. And again on Cyprus, its territorial disputes are much smaller in scale than Georgia, because at least Turkey is a NATO ally (supposedly)
@@Wozza365 You are moving goalpost to just not to admit Georgia into the Union. Georgia has great relations with Tukrey and Erdogan stated that he supports Georgia's EU membership and NATO membership as well, so Turkey would NOT be an issue at all. Second, Russia is not a deterent either when EU is heavily considering to admit Ukraine that is in active war and has more Russian presence in it's territory than Georgia ever had. Sea route is good enough of connection with EU and is comparable to Cyprus because what is Russia to Georgia, Turkey is to Cyprus, so no, it's not different ball game, it's pretty much the same.
Serbia and Kosovo is not gonna work.Pick one.
Could we add the UK and/or Scotland please