Will Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Become One Country?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
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After a wave of military coups in the central Sahel region, their respective military juntas have signed an agreement to form a new alliance. So in this video we'll explain what's happened, why they've allied together and whether it could work long term.
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1 - www.reuters.com/world/africa/...
2 - www.economist.com/the-world-a...
3 - www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1...
4 - www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-afri...
5 - www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20231205...
6 - www.independent.co.uk/news/ni...
7 - www.lemonde.fr/en/internation...
8 - hir.harvard.edu/how-france-fa...
9 - www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/afr...
10 - theconversation.com/burkina-f...
11 - foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/24/...
00:00 Introduction
00:58 What’s Happening in the Sahel?
02:38 Why Form an Alliance?
05:55 Can it Work?
07:35 GiveWell
I know the news mostly talks about the possibility of a federation, the definition of which is usually vague enough to accommodate an alliance of countries without actually changing their borders or their governance, but let's humor the idea of the title and thumbnail that it could go farther than that and all 3 countries could genuinely become one.
Well, to be fair, it definitely *_can_* be argued that most of Mali and Burkina Faso share similar enough religions and native languages that they could potentially become a singular country, but unfortunately, the same just can't be said for most of Niger's territory -- especially its northern half -- and even if they did manage to solve that problem, the current war in Sudan clearly shows military leaders don't like it when one of them is arbitrarily chosen to be above the others.
Landlocked desert with no infrastructure, no automation, no industry, just short life spans and raw materials.
They kick out the French and brought in more outsiders, this time from Russia.
Clowns.
I can't think of a single successful case where an autocrat voluntarily chose to share power within a union.
Egypt-Syria tried, but one autocrat didn't like being a Jr partner, while the other autocrat refused to surrender any power to make things more equal.
They also share the fact that they have greedy despots that wanna lead. Unification will most likely end up in civil war.
@@badluck5647 Lebanon to end the Civil War? Fidel Castro transferring power to his Brother?
@@badluck5647
Emperor Diocletian abducting
Yeltsin giving power to Putin
Tantawi abducting from being Egypt president
The problem is that each one of the states thinks that they will soon control the other 2. There is no way they can peacefully just pick a leader with the other ones stepping down
Yeah, I hope that this would be a good thing. But when was the last time this worked out well? Particularly in such a corrupt place?
Landlocked desert with no infrastructure, no automation, no industry, just short life spans and raw materials.
They kick out the French and brought in more outsiders, this time from Russia.
Clowns.
Could be a classic Triumvirate!
Some people's brains are just not developed for non-basic thinking and growing from being run by raw emotions (like those who voted for Brexit or Trump). That's what these dictatorships have in spades. So, yeah, not sure this confederacy will work.
It's a long term strategy
They will create similar laws and economic regulations between each others and within 20 to 30 years can become unified or it will be similar to EU where each country has its government but they all follow EU rules too with open borders and other things
I'd love to see Liberia and Sierra Leone combine as well but everyone wants to be king of a hill, rather than a minister of a mountain
Liberia and Sierra Leone, useless colonies of the United States just need to disappear
Good idea.
would not work because of religion. sierra leone is muslim. liberia is not. not everyone wants to live in an islamic country and have to deal with their rules and values, esp. if you're a woman. a country with burkina faso, mali, niger and guinea makes more sense because they speak french, they are muslim, and it would give bf, m, and n access to a coast/port.
They don’t need to become one country but they can become a sort of federation where each country work very close together sharing trade, currency, military and other important aspects. This will grow each country individually whilst not becoming one country as a whole which could cause problems down the line.
that's probably what they gonna do, i guess they insist on "Union" to bring motivation for the project
That's called a confederation.
@@-haclong2366 no the definition has never been precise: the "confederate states of America" were an actual state and not just a confederation or a union and it's also the case today for the Swiss confederation
If they go that route, good for them, since that seems like it would be more appealing for three different military goverments.
IF they try to become one single country, however, then *_OOOOOH boy! There's gonna be carnage._*
@forevaschemin, I agree with you. A federation could work.
It depends on the balance between definition of sovereignty, and definition of cooperation as specified in the Treaty among them. For this they will need a single Constitutional Court to interpret the Treaty.
It will also depend on specifics, such as distribution of power, the monetary system and exchange rate regime, formula for taxation, formula for public expenditure, formula for decisions on crucial matters such as food, education and training, culture, defense and security, STEM, manufacturing, infrastructure, Foreign Affairs etc.
This will go the same way as happened when Gaddafi tried to form an African Union, everyone thought it was a great idea until it came to decided how it should be led. At that point every country thought they should lead it and the rest should be subservient.
This will go no differently. Military dictatorships are well known for trying to grab more power and control, they are not known for peaceful cooperation or ceding power to others. Those 3 states are only on board with the idea because they think somehow it will result in them ruling the other 2 countries.
Gaddafi didn’t even try it, he died before it was even considered properly.
@@andrewrogers3067 He definitely tried it, it just went nowhere.
The countries are already oligarchical military juntas, not dictatorships, and power is already shared. I don’t think its unthinkable that they unite on paper while still remaining decentralized and oligarchical in nature, at least until one man politically maneuvers himself into the role of autocrat
Not really this would be federalised and they share ethnicity and political outlook
@@ragerancherno he didn't
The French sent only 4000 troops to cover security interests in 5 countries? It's not a shock they were sent packing. I hope the USA or Russia doesn't get too involved. Africa is in the most-dire need of creating its own destiny, whatever that future looks like for them, it's a huge and diverse continent, deserving of its own voices in the world.
But , france need to pay which is stolen by their ,
Otherwise , as a African , we have a African immigrants in France , and you know how dengerous they are
I hope Russia DOES get involved. Dividing your forces across two fronts is how the czar got himself sh!tcanned over 100 years ago.
That's ideal, but when radical islamists come From these regions and wreak havoc on Western society what else can we do but try to prevent it by any means necessary?
Well its not as simple as that, french help actually saved mali's most important cities from being taken by terrorist
@@ektekp Sure it did lol
The first task that must be focused on is educating people and spreading knowledge, because if a person learns, he realizes and comprehends the meaning of union and unity
I like how every body in the comments just became an expert in geopolitics, internal african politics and history, they even have an intimate knowledge of every ethnic group in Africa 😂😂😂
😂 Right
Maybe not experts, but many probably know more than you
@@ey3z4ya nah
How do you know a European is an "expert"? Wait five minutes and they'll tell you! 😂
Even other Africans know shit about West Africa let alone Sahelian politics
The idea that any of the three power-hungry corrupt military juntas would give up an ioda of power for some sort of political reason is ridiculous.
Exactly.
They could combine into one junta and retain power in an oligarchy of sorts, maybe a decentralized single country which in reality is de-facto separate countries. It wouldn’t be unthinkable, just unlikely
You're obviously a hater with all the hurt in your words but logically let's keep in mind that Western Democracy and their religion is what caused all these leadership problems across Africa. We need to give Africa a chance to forge its own path. Maybe this AES with their cooperation is a step in the right direction. Don't be too quick to judge until we see results. You obviously wont want to hear this but haters like you show they're doing something right.
Its iota
@@AfroVersityDidn't know that Islam is a Western religion 😮
taking video and comments into consideration:
single country = unlikely
federation/confederacy = possible
with unifiying factor being Russian influence
man, I don't get people who say "All of Africa's instability is due to the Europeans, Europeans should never get involved in Africa" but then in the next sentence ask some other global power to intervene.
Europe (I refer to mostly neo colonists like France and all those who support their actions) cannot stand one day without interfering in its sphere of influence.
Oh I do, it’s simple.
They think they’re better and correct. And in truth they’re hypocrites.
russia is geopolitically weaker and much less influential in the region than france so their relationship to these countries isn't as lopsided as the neocolonial ties they had with the french
is russia part of europe?
Because Russians has less power over them economically and they can atleast argue some terms with them than with the west
It'll be interesting to see if these countries can pull their plans off. They have a lot of hurdles they need to overcome!
It will be interesting to see which direction these three nations take and which predictipns about them will turn out true or false.
Imagine uniting 3 countries and still managing to be landlocked?
lol...they're royally screwed and don't even know it. Meanwhile Ethiopia is doing all it can to get to the see at all cost
The interests of each nation's ruling elites will not be satisfied with one large union, as the question of power and leadership will only serve to divide and eventually undo any such union. This idea will go the way of the East African Federation, a cute idea fo theorists but an impossible to implement institution due to the inherent weakness, corruption, and objectively unstable nature of all the states involved.
Deeply unstable, corrupt, and bankrupt nations come together all the time, just watch the EU. Lol. All it takes is a common interest, like being surrounded by hostile nations threatening to invade you.
Let’s not forget what would people have said at the thought of a European Union 100 years ago?
@NakamuraShunske The EU was formed by democracies though, not military juntas.
@@_jpghow was Germany unified? Italy?
@@shafsteryellow Germany was unified by a fiscal union. Italy was unified by a political movement.
Being mixed and half Burkinese i really don't know much about the place! thanks for the video very interesting
Interesting stuff
If their goal is to discourage invasion, giving their detractors proof they've been working together and that the later coups were working together from the start, is probably a bad idea.
You know, since that was the reason to invade being considered.
I have not been keeping abreast with the happenings of the 3 states. Reading all your musings and comments is fascinating
I hope so!
Awesome sponsor. Nice to see
Personal i see this as great news.
As with most of these clickbait titles after a few minutes "Seems unlikely". Merging countries is very rare, most leaders don't want to be second-in-command.
This doesn't seem like click bait? Yes it's a catchy title, but it directly leads into the topic, talks about why this question is being asked, and discusses its actual likelihood. It's not "NEW MILITARY SUPERSTATE IN AFRICA? 🤯😱 100% CONFIRMED 💯"
It's a logistical nightmare going from a multipart system to a unipart system. There are hundreds of thousands of moving parts operated by millions of people which all operate on different norms, rules etc which need to sync up. If you fail to accomplish it smoothly you're gonna end up with an economical elite that will exploit the fog of chaos and establish a mafia like society.
How is this a clickbait title? Because you’re butthurt?
'In tandem' used in relation to more than two, grates on the ears.
We cant wait
When they get closer to "unification", it will turn out that each of the ruling generals wants to be the ruler of the union. And the other two won't like that idea a bit. End of story. 😛
Wrong
This is great news tbh
That will be wonderful
hey, could you make the map you all use (blank) public ? I would love to use it for fun projects !
African problem requires African solution. We as African will continue to support Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Why would military juntas want to share power??
Such is our prayers
That's interesting.
Is no one talking about how there alliance name is ASS . 😅
Highly unlikely. When was the last time 2 or more countries (that werent formerly merged like in the case in germany) merged into one country? It almost never happens
Singapore and Malaysia. Didn't last long though.
@@mx2000That's more "Singapore getting kicked out of the Malayan Federation against their will"
Tanganiyika and Zanzibar?
@@paulcruz168But that was bloody ages ago, on a geopolitical scale.
Tanzania
I really like TLDR they are very informative
They are not,when it comes to Africa, they are bias .In their think Americans cannot think for themselves.
Time will tell 💯☝️🧐
I feel as though this is a case of each country wanting to dominate the other 2, so for this reason I doubt this will ever happen
Funnily enough, for all the reasons this confederation is doomed to fail, this is not one of them. None of these countries have any designs on each other. They too weak and too evenly matched on one hand, and and face the same security and external challenges on the other.
This is not likely. They might form economic or defence pacts. But highly unlikely they would give up any sovereignty
Why is that keep hating we moving forward 😂
Let's hope that those bright young people will support each other and take the land and people to a higher level. A great triangle. Can you imagine security, health and education at all levels. Plus the friends and family members adding agriculture, manufactiring, social, leisure and cultural development.
One step ahead love you for life
The real acronym for Alliance of Sahel States is A.S.S. 😂
I do much appreciate the news and analysis I get from this channel. I do have 2 minor points of criticism.
1) "Junta" is Spanish, meaning "council," and is pronounced "hoon-tah," not "joon-tah."
2) Not liking France and liking Russia is not enough to be called an ideology. "Ideology" is a set of logical underpinnings for certain ideals.
Él no esta hablando español amigo
Junta with j is the standard UK pronunciation. The TLDR team get a lot of pronunciations wrong but this is arguably not one of them. It’s not really the same word as the Spanish, as the Spanish “junta” means any assembly or committee, while in English it specifically means a ruling military council.
@@paradoxmo in the USA we use the Spanish pronunciation...but then, we have Mexico on our border.
The first thing I notice is landlocked countries getting access to a coast.
The question is, would Nigeria *allow* them to do this? Nigeria is much more powerful both economically and militarily than Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso combined. And at some point, they're likely to decide that sanctions are insufficient and intervene militarily to overthrow the juntas.
Nigeria = France
@@gunnlibfashion4232 Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso juntas = Russia
Nigeria fighting to return those countries to French neocolonial status may be a fatal mistake for their own republic.
They could barely stand to lose security personnel to Boko Haram. What happens when those same soldiers meet the bullets of Russian security services alongside those respective Afrikan militaries?
@@gunnlibfashion4232 Incredibly stupid comment. France has never been involved in Nigeria. It was a British colony. It was never in the French Empire or French sphere of influence. I mean, really, that comment is incredibly idiotic.
@@BonsuBigWhale Nigeria, if it intervened, would not be interested in "returning [the countries] to French neocolonial status." Their interests would be in not having a superstate with a terrible economy and an Islamicist insurgency problem, run by an unstable military junta directly to their north.
In any event, the concept of neocolonialism is very much in dispute to begin with. And even the political theorists who coined the term neocolonialism would not describe it as a "status" a country can have. They would describe it as an economic situation which echoes the old colonial geopolitical hierarchies.
As for how the Nigerian military would fare in this entirely speculative intervention, it would look very similar to most other West African wars in the past 70 years - extremely likely to fragment the regions involved between tribal/cultural groups and quite bloody. However, in sheer numbers, Nigeria would have a very significant advantage; not to mention that their economy is significantly stronger that those Sahel nations, which could put them in a position to acquire more and better arms from nations with whom they have good established trade and diplomatic relations. The Sahel nations have been very good at ruining their diplomatic ties to arms-producing nations in the past year or so.
Mali and Niger unifying would bring the Songhai people together into one country
Still missing the Dendi 😢
@@florianmaier104 Unfortunately, the Dendi are split between Benin, Niger, and Nigeria, and there are also part of the Songhai population in Sokoto and Kebbi (in Nigeria as well)
100% congratulations for join togather and using one common currence , one region.
if Senegal could get an energetic liberator like Traore, a merger with Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso would give the Sahel region access to the sea. they can then route all their trading through Senegal's ports. Timbuktu would be resurrected and the Sahel region would boom again as Sundiata Keita, Mansa Musa and the other African legends intended
I remember when I was really young and I said that these 3 countries should unite but my mom said that would be irresponsible
One of the main issues as it has been for eternity is when the nomads get locked out. Such as the touraeg. Countries expand taking more territory and water, so they fight for rights and independence. Places like Mali just blame lack of security, but never solve the issue.
Mali seems to be getting control of the situation.
We have no problems with touraeg the people making trouble in the north are terrorist from Libya who say they are touraeg and want to make their own state they are a lot of touraeg in Mali army
Yes
nightmare blunt rotation
This is insane.
Ah yes the country of A.S.S. would suffice if Niger falls off the map. I’m glad they were thinking about the 5th graders in geography class.
AES
Chance is low but could be happen.
Trés bien.
Autocrats are going to choose to share power.
Ridiculous.
Autocrats according to who?
@@Gobackto4chan What would you call the military juntas who came to power through coups?
@@badluck5647 That’s not what an autocracy is
@@Gobackto4chan Autocracy is a system of government in which absolute power is held by the ruler, known as an autocrat. It includes most forms of monarchy and dictatorship, while it is contrasted with democracy.
I would love to see more coverage of African electoral politics!
A prequisite for that would be for there to be elections.
This is not "electoral" in any capacity
That would be great! And make them a bigger power
Greed and the quest for power can never let a thing like that
Yes it is possible..look at what the greed and power of NATO did with libya by working together.
I think that the new country wouldn’t work simply because it’s landlocked. They need access to a large body of water for the economy to thrive.
They should unite. There are way too many countries to learn about in Geography. This will simplify things for students. 😊
😂😂😂
Let me tell you all this. The people have a strong desire to unite. Whether or not you believe it’s possible is up to you. It will happen. It will become the strongest federation in 5 Years. That’s the goal.
Good luck.
The juntas in each country is going to break out into inter factional wars pretty soon after the union is set.
so they will do some that has never happened before in all of history? Santa Claus is Real
I like how you pronounce Junta as Zhunta and not Hunta.
they should form a federation
Alliance of Sahel States in short: ASS xD
If they make their national animal a Donkey, then it will be really fitting
Im English maybe. Officially it's AES
Finally french people are reacting aggressive on that , because how they steal our minrals many more?😂😂😂
@@GAZAMAN93X I know it's officially AES. I watched the video too but where does the E in AES come from?
yes
good news, however they need to annex one of the southern countries for acces to sea...
Joining together may be the worst thing they can do. One leader will want more power than the others and then there's the issue of joining different ethnic groups together. It has never worked and will just turn into a hotbed of ethnic violence and tribalism.
I doubt a new country will be formed. There are other countries in Africa that could have joined together but haven’t lasted (ie Senegal & the Gambia). I can see a strong union
Senegal and Gambia will one or even join the A.S.S
I like how you are so devoid of actual content that you have begun to theorize about the creation of a state that doesn't have a chance in hell of existing in the first place.
I love that Burkina Faso ditched French as a state level language. Africans dumping on petit Nappy's ambitions is always good news.
Good for who? for Pride maybe but it doesn't make anything else better. Language doesn't make a countries. These countries will still be speaking french regardless. Priorities are all screwed up hear
@@user-qg5kf6ld1v he mali empire had 3 centuries using our own languages which had several different cultures and states under. So yes french is dissapearing, the next one to disappear is going to be the Latin script which we will replace with either Medu Neter hieratic version (what westerns call hieroglyphs) , Meroitic script, Ge Ez or Ajami. We’re not only kicking out french we are kicking their culture out too, now we already beat the france funded Djihadist in kidal (the base of the djihadist) we’re going to start the cultural revolution. The language we are going to use so that evrybody understands is Bambara which is spoken by 90% of the population already. We don’t need french. English should be taught only as secondary language in school for aquiring technology , business and nothing else.
All you westerns can keep crying. It’s time for the 2nd african renaissance (The first one being when Nubian Nswt(Pharoah) took Kemet (Egypt) back from the non-africans foreigners who’s descendant sadly now own Kemet (egypt) today.
I hope this happens, I sincerely wish the best for Africa.
Why? The West profits from their brain drain, and the internal exploitation of African labour by African despots looking for quick cash.
That would be great. They were once all part of the Bambara Empire. ❤Mali BF et Niger ❤
Authoritarian countries rarely cooperate well together. At best this will go the path of the UAR
guys i read the second country in the title wrong
Hearing about this makes me think about the other big merger proposal in Africa: the East African Federation, which I just learned now includes Somalia.
Somalia joined on paper. I reality no somali federal state will accept freedom of movement of people from congo/Uganda/south Sudan ect into somalia..
A union with Eritrea, sudan and Djibouti would however probably be accepted
@@shafsteryellow Thems the rule :D Can't have it both ways.
@@wabdinurwell they won't, the east african states will probably confederate and associate with the horn and upper Nile states which could confederate themselves
I'm sure three military juntas all deciding which of them would be in charge won't result in anything bad happening whatsoever! /s
While they have been coordinating on their fights against militant groups, the only major reason the have to get along is to keep outside countries from coming in and reinstating the elected civilian governments. Any partnership beyond that would quickly result in infighting.
keep dreaming
are you serious? you must be joking
So, I'm the only one who keeps wondering why guinea keeps getting included in the maps for some reason?
The Songhai empire is back!!
Let the dictators try. The problem with dictators is they all want to be the king of their unified shit mountain. Let them fight amongst themselves.
We had the prequel, it was called United Arab Republic. And the prequel to that prequel, the United Bolivarian Republic.
So what happens to all the refugees after it all goes to sh*t?
This is a brilliant way to undo colonial borders. As a new country they can reorganize their internal provincial borders along ethnic lines and maybe stabilize them one by one.
exactly, seeing this as partially effect of arbitrary colonial borders "fixing themselves" as well
also dont forget there is common factor behind the scenes, with Russia somewhat calling the shots and being an influence and preparing things via news and info-war for some time now
and let them bring in Wagner to fight Islamic State, good luck with that
I doubt they're being that smart about it, but one can hope, I guess?
Except the borders aren't the issue in these countries. It's more the Islamist and to a lesser extent, Tuareg insurgencies in these countries that have been problems. But internally, there isn't much ethnic strife
The confederation wouldn’t get rid of any borders. Just because they become a confederation doesn’t mean those 3 countries cease to exist.
The tyrants couldn’t agree on who would be in charge - power hungry people don’t just come together in harmony.
Likely not, but it would be quite interesting
Imagine watching Russia over the last 2 years and thinking "Yes, we should be closer to them".
It's more about admiring the authoritarian ideology of Putin's Russia rather than its military competence.
Imagine watching USA and the west over the last 2 months what they are doing in Gaza, killing over 20000+ innocent civilians. Do you think any good human will choose to be an ally with those murderous?
That's how bad the French are to their former colonies
Imagine being so horrible that someone chooses the worst option they can find than choosen you.
Whats the better alternative? Remain under Western Neocolonialism? 🤦🏿♂️
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso: we're so tired of colonial powers intefering in and ruining our countries.
Also Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso: that Putin fellow seems nice, I'm sure he means us no harm.
Why for ppl think they have 0 self direction
It's not the same thing, Russia has a respectful military and economical relationship with these countries, where France only does neocolonial interference without any respect. Recently the Malian army in collaboration with Wagner regained control of Kidal in a few months which was under the control of terrorists, while France spent 10 years in the region and did nothing, and according to Malian intelligence France supported the terrorists.
@@TheRealUsername Lol at thinking Russia isn't into neocolonial interference when it's literally carrying out a war of annexation right now.
@@TheRealUsername You talk of Kidal without talking about the accord Mali had with the touareg push by Algeria.
Their a reason why France didn't take Kidal, Serval was an anti-djiadist force not anti-touareg force.
And if I remember well, France Army publish a video of Wagner and Malian RS buring corpse to frame France.
@@jean-philippebobin3732 - You are wrong when you say that the Tuaregs were pushed by Algeria to rebel against Mali. The Tuareg claims are long-standing and complex, and Algeria has not supported the rebels militarily or financially.
- You are wrong when you say that Serval was an anti-jihadist force, not an anti-Touareg one. Serval also aimed to re-establish the authority of the Malian state over the entire north of the country, including Kidal, and to promote the implementation of the 2015 peace agreement.
You should upgrade this information based on the current news. 1) the sanctions have been lifted 2) the Russians now have a embassy as well as troops in niger 3) the three countries have been making gains in their fight with the Islamic insurgents 4) the final readout of the federation has been delivered.... I hope you make an updated video. Have a wonderful day
that will be a ridiculously weird looking border
Supid, that just lowers the amount of coups needed to put it under french influence again
Could they?
Yeah.
Would it last?
Most definitely not unless its a mega strongman dictator with questionable morals ala Gaddafi style
The Mali Empire return
This'll be neat maybe
"We have East African Federation at home."
East African Federation at home:
Africa = "We don't want European colonizers in our countries"
Africa = "We don't mind letting Russia & China exploit all our minerals and resources"
See the problem here :)
You keep telling yourself that, lol@@momytik
The devil you know vs the devil you don't.
Spot on!@@vanhoras3082
Except that the model of the chinese is more based on cooperation in Africa. At least compared to the western model.
Oh please, indebting countries they know can't pay so that later on they can seize their assets?! Sounds like real cooperation that mate, lol@@billcarson818
Alliance of Sahel States doesn’t make AES 😂
Yes this was my complaint too
The acronym is in French (Alliance des États du Sahel).
AOSS
❤
Sure these three very stable countries going to be in a union together
People in the comment section are so negative
Oh russias new colony
How to cause a civil war in 2 seconds:
It's something that can take time, by this, their are a lot of emotions. I don't think it's the right time to proceed.