Future of Electric Vehicles: Exploring Why Tesla, BYD, and Rivian Could Outpace the Competition
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 พ.ย. 2024
- In 2023, concerns about demand, pricing, and elevated interest rates have reversed the narrative on the Green Tidal Wave thesis, leading to a downturn in electric vehicles.
A slice of year-to-date decliners includes Arrival down 84%, Canoo down 80%, Fisker down 77%, Blink Charging down 73%, Nikola down 66%, REE Automotive down 63%, Polestar Automotive down 57%, Lucid Group down 31%, and NIO down 24%.
The EV bellwether however, Tesla, is up 126% year-to-date.
Analysts like Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein are sounding a warning for 2024, citing concerns that delivery growth and margins may fall short of expectations.
Piper Sandler recently pointed out that the electric vehicle sector might be more robust than perceived, emphasizing the possibility of a few market share leaders garnering attention and consolidating the EV market.
The company revised its electric vehicle sales forecast, aligning with the prevalent notion that electric vehicles are grappling with a perceived demand issue.
"While our new forecast does imply a modestly slower ramp between now and 2030, it's important to note that our long-term expectations are unchanged," reported Alexander Potter.
"Specifically, we still think the auto sector will eventually reach 100% EV penetration, and we disagree with the notion that EV demand is approaching exhaustion," he added.
Piper Sandler's earlier electric vehicle projection anticipated a 33% penetration in the U.S., Europe, and China by 2025, with a subsequent increase to 67% by 2030.
The company's updated forecast reduces those expectations by 600 to 700 basis points, indicating a 26% electric vehicle penetration in 2025, followed by 60% in 2030.
Notably, the increasing electric vehicle penetration is a function of optimistic market share projections for specialized EV manufacturers such as Tesla, BYD Company, and Rivian Automotive.
In the future, Piper Sandler anticipates the EV trio to account for approximately 25% of all vehicle sales in the U.S., China, and Europe. "So, even if we expected 0% EV mix at all other brands, we would still be forecasting market-wide EV penetration of ~25% in 2030," noted Potter.
Toyota is not expected to make significant strategic changes after gaining market share through the sale of budget-friendly hybrid vehicles.
Facing a leveling off in electric vehicle penetration, Volkswagen is reported to have a considerable distance to cover in reaching its interim EV goals (35% to 40% EVs by 2027, over 65% by 2030).
General Motors, despite vocalizing its commitment to electric vehicles, including a pledge for 100% electrification by 2035, has faced underwhelming results thus far.
The unprofitable Chevy Bolt remains the sole quasi high-volume EV, while electric versions of the Equinox, Silverado, and Sierra are all experiencing delays.
The real challenge with Ford is anticipated to be convincing Americans to forgo gasoline-based icons like the F-150, Explorer, Expedition, Bronco, and Ranger.
Piper Sandler is uncertain about the credibility of Honda's EV targets, considering the company's lack of communication in the electric vehicle sector.
In Europe, Mercedes-Benz has announced plans to exclusively sell Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 where regulations permit, but notably, the German automaker has not ruled out internal combustion engines.
Although Nissan was an early pioneer in electric vehicles, the Leaf currently does not feature among the top 50 electric vehicles globally.
Concerning Chinese automakers like NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng, Piper highlighted a lack of evidence to indicate which of these companies can achieve sustainable success in developed automotive markets such as Western Europe or the United States.
Wall Street's opinion on Tesla is divided, with 15 Buy-equivalent ratings, 21 Hold-equivalent ratings, and 6 Sell-equivalent ratings.
Rivian Automotive receives a more favorable outlook, with 20 out of 26 ratings at Buy-equivalent or higher.
BYD has limited coverage on Wall Street, but on Seeking Alpha, it holds a unanimous set of Buy-equivalent ratings.
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BYD’s exported cars are this year reviewing with higher scores than US and European manufacturers for both safety and reliability. We had better start learning from China before we fall further behind.
Yeah China's manufacturing prowess scary good.
BYD will Be #1
China yes, Globally, yet to be seen
@@WealthWise-dca
BYD Already #1 EV in Thailand. They will have a Factory up n running in 2024 in Rayong area
Thailand Motor Expo 2023 just ended after 13 Days
53,248 units Total sales
1 Toyota 7,245 units
2 Honda 6,149 2x growth Year on Year
3 BYD 5455 units, Seal, Atto3 n Dolphin
4 GAC AION 4568 units, Factory in Thailand will start Production in 2024
5 MG 3568 units
6 Changan 3549 units
7 GWM n ORA 3524 units, Factory running in Thailand
8 Isuzu 2,460 Units
9 Nissan
10 Mazda
11 Neta 1766 units, Factory up and Running in Thailand
12 Mitsubishi
13 Ford
14 Suzuki
15 Mercedes
16 BMW
17 Hyundai 680 Units
18 Tesla 528 units, ROCK BOTTOM. DEAD LAST PLACE
@@WealthWise-dca You do realise BYD already *is* #1 globally in the BEV/PHEV market, right?
There is NOTHING Tesla can do to stop BYD or the legacy manufacturers. The ONLY reason it is still in business is because it continues to get grants and subsidies that keep it afloat. If it had to genuinely compete then it would have gone bankrupt ~10 years ago.
Medium to long term, Tesla simply can't compete. They don't innovate well, their model range is small, QA has barely improved in the last decade so we have to conclude they simply *can't* build a quality vehicle, and they are incapable of developing models at pace. The Chinese & Eastern European manufacturers will eat them alive at the low and mid market price points (already doing that outside the US) and the legacy manufacturers are starting to swallow them at the mid and high market price points.
I'd give Tesla less than 10 years to collapse. Sooner if they stop being subsidised to exist or the Chinese manufacturers enter the US market in force and thus US buyers finally realise how crap Tesla actually is.
@@WealthWise-dcaTheir international exports just got started last year and are now growing at an explosive rate. BYD are charging more for the exported cars and upping the quality a little also.
@@ContactBaroqueHall based on recent developments, I agree it is likely that BYD will make it big in some international markets, if not all.
No one will win, not in the short term anyway. My belief is the Established Carmakers that offer multiple fuel/electricity options will survive. Purely electric manufacturers have all their eggs in one basket. Oh, BTW, electric cars are far from green.
agreed, things look a little rough in the short term but will improve as rates come down.
Nothing like utter delusion and the total ignorance of reality.
which part?
NIO SwapNGo Technic Standard will take over. Cooperation NIO Changan CATL BYD Geely Volvo Polestar Stellantis VW. Standard Battery Swapp Stations connected to Solar Parks along the Highways. Ride on the Sun Power.
Always been fascinated by Nio's business model.
I love electric cars and have owned 4. What I don’t get the huge price premium and stunning drop in quality. The eGolf was a great car and felt luxurious. The id3 is garbage. It looks and feels like it had been assembled out of cheap parts by a blind assembly team and the software is worse. But the id3 is more expensive. Tesla has some great tech but the cars have dreadful fit and finish and it’s looking like they could also face outrageous levels of depreciation. So what are we to do? Pay a premium for tech and get a car that loses value rapidly and get recalled in staggering numbers.?? Now I don’t own a car. Bus and train suits me fine and the money I save each year we use to travel, usually in business class and we are still better off than owning a new ev. Perhaps in 5 years the quality will have improved and price will have fallen, but by then there just might be no world worth living in.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Let's hope it does indeed improve, before it's too late.
Also hats off to you to skip the car and use that money for travel.