Anders Puck Nielsen - Will Munitions being Shipped to Ukraine at Scale Help Turn the Tide of War?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 เม.ย. 2024
- The US has apparently supplied Ukraine with “significant numbers of ATACMS”. Will these capabilities, and other munitions supplied by US, Germany, UK, and allies turn the tide of war in favour of Ukraine, about a period of uncertainly, dwindling supplies, losses, and anxiety.
----------
GUEST: Anders Puck Nielsen - TH-camr and military analyst.
Today I’m speaking with Anders Puck Nielsen, military analyst and influential TH-camr based in Denmark. He specialises in naval warfare and strategy; in today’s video we are going to be talking about Ukrainian successes against Russia’s Black Sea fleet and state of the ground war in Ukraine.
----------
CHAPTERS:
00:01:23 Introduction to topics under discussion with Anders Puck Nielsen
00:02:11 Weapons for Ukraine are arriving just in time to stop Russian advances
00:03:43 Frontline position could be described as 'stalemate' over last 12 months
00:07:04 New technology such as drones seem to favour the defensive side
00:10:42 There is a real difference between 'stalemate' and a frozen conflict
00:13:19 Self-guiding long-range Ukrainian drones are a real game-changer
00:14:30 Drones can be programmed to understand what an oil refinery looks like
00:16:15 Dragon-fire laser air defence - could it take our Iranian drones?
00:19:37 Ukraine is trying to undermine Russian economy and military logistics
00:24:10 Russia is not crazy - just their frame of reference is different
00:27:46 Potential scenarios for a brittle and destabilised Russian regime
----------
LINKS:
/ @anderspuck
/ anderspuck
/ anderspucknielsen
apnielsen.info/en/frontpage/
----------
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:
www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconc...
/ siliconcurtain
----------
TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:
Save Ukraine
www.saveukraineua.org/
Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas
superhumans.com/en/
UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukraine
unbroken.org.ua/
Come Back Alive
savelife.in.ua/en/
Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
wck.org/relief/activation-che...
UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy
u24.gov.ua/
Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation
prytulafoundation.org
NGO “Herojam Slava”
heroiamslava.org/
kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyśl
kharpp.com/
NOR DOG Animal Rescue
www.nor-dog.org/home/
----------
PLATFORMS:
Twitter: / curtainsilicon
Instagram: / siliconcurtain
Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6...
Linkedin: / finkjonathan
Patreon: / siliconcurtain
----------
Welcome to the Silicon Curtain podcast. Please like and subscribe if you like the content we produce. It will really help to increase the popularity of our content in TH-cam’s algorithm. Our material is now being made available on popular podcasting platforms as well, such as Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
![ILLSLICK - Homies Feat. LILY [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/r6jGK7MumF0/mqdefault.jpg)
This delay has cost Ukraine dear. In blood. For that we should all be ashamed.
I was working every day for Ukraine so I will not be hanging my head in shame. Russia brought shame on themselves by buying US politicians and spending billions of Rubles on delaying aid and brainwashing half the GOP. Democracy takes time and Russia is out to exploit that weakness. the SHAME belongs to Russia who started this conflict and continued it despite continued demands for their withdrawl. It is Rusha murdering women and children, raping and torturing their way across the occupied territories and made rape legal, emptied their prisons to unleash convicted rapists on the innocents in Ukraine. So feel ashamed if it suits you, I am with Ukraine. Slava Ukraine!
PS - I liked your comment but wanted to say more..x
I completely agree with you, but we are where we are now and we have to move on from here.
Yep.
Exactly!💙💛
Why should the US be ashamed? We’ve already given billions to a war Europe should be able to handle and to a group who for decades has failed to live up to their NATO defensive spending commitments. I want the US to withdraw from NATO. we simply cannot trust Europe to do their part.
Anders is my favorite expert on the matter.
Clearly on Ukraine's side, but assessing things neutrally and never dramatizing anything.
He simply means to inform people and it's not a business for him.
It's a bit of a business, he has supporters who send some money to him, but it's not a big business. Otherwise, totally agree.
"expert"
"Clearly on Ukraine's side"
He's a Royal Danish Navy commander and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College.
Honestly, I'd be quite surprised by the contrary. 😅
@@lorenzcassidy3960
Yeah, I could have written "as a Danish/NATO naval officer he obviously sides with Ukraine bla bla bla".
I kept it brief.
@@martavdz4972
The things is, he's not a pro TH-camr.
He's giving his audience only information and not something else they might desire or connect to.
Thank you both for a insightful conversation. Now let us all step up support for Ukraine 🇺🇦
- 'all'... what are you 'stepping up' ?
This is the most disingenuous and factually-wrong presentation that I have seen in quite some time. The war is over.
Nielson is one of my favorite speakers on the subject of Ukraine, alongside Ben Hodges and Timothy Snyder.
Slava Ukraini !
Ben Hodges for president
And you also believe in the tooth fairy as well.
@alexhidell4546 You believe that Putin cares about you or will pay you potato for your comments
@@alexhidell4546 awwww cope more comrade!
@@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz We might need an ex-general for president in the coming decade. I'm not thrilled about that but in reality we might be better served by strategic thinkers and less political thinkers.
We've seen drones in lieu of artillery. Now we will see drones PLUS artillery.
The use of commercial spotter drones for artillery fire adjustment have shown to be a great success.
Which you have already seen during summer counteroffensive
My 2 favorite voices on Ukraine - great!
I always appreciated Nielsen's military analysis, but here he appears quite clueless, as if drunk on propagandistic suppositions.
This is propaganda is simpletons.
Europe really started stepping up when US would not approve aid.
I hope Europe maintains its commitments in light of the passed US aid bill.
Don't worry, Europe will be left with the bill.
I will gladly pay the bill. We have the money to do so it was never truly a big financial problem. The problem is bureaucracy, and strong reassurance that production will be profitable for arms manufacturing.
@@kristiansandsmark2048 Have fun with that. Europe will be hobbled for decades, thanks to this debacle.
@@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 Put it on Russia's tab.
@@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 As with any cost, the important concept is that of the alternative cost. Many Europeans with good reason believe that if we let Russia win, the long term cost will be even higher.
My own personal opinion. Russia doesn't look strong. Ukraine was out of ammunition. Russia couldn't force a breakthrough even when Ukraine was on their knees.
My thought too. Where was their push? In 7 months??
Russia lost the impetus at Hostimel and it's been in denial and gradually bleeding out ever since .
@@sichereabsolutely! I was really astonished, how idiotic they were acting. 😂😂😂😂
To be fair, they weren't out of ammo, they were rationing it because they didn't know when they would receive more.
But yes, russia is clearly struggling when they couldn't take more advantage of this shortage.
To be frank, Russia gave it the best shot to take Kyiv, with a 64km convoy, 500 elite paratroopers with swarms of choppers and planes at Hostomel, and failed. It's lost more territory than gained since Feb 2022, record KIA this year, Black Sea Fleet 33% gone, Crimea looking very vulnerable. Once the US, UK, and European munitions, armour, and defence systems are on site, with mobilisation, Ukraine will really ramp up the heat on Putin.
The air defense equipment from the US & the UK will hopefully stop Russia sending bombers into Ukraine.
Why did the UK wait so long?
@@daydays12 Most likely it's the cost.
Even when facing the threat of a new Soviet Union you guys just think in terms of US and the UK. What is the UK btw? Does Northern Ireland help as well? Get out of the stone ages or face defeat. This war is about teamwork of every single free nation.
@@mylessalmon2569 Probably. Or maybe waiting for the US to renew its aid?
@@williamkevinjames Trump will lose the election. Reason will prevail over disorder.
What a fantastic guest and fantastic conversation. Kommandøren Nielsen is *always* worth listening to.
The try at Danish is appreciated, he is however addressed as 'Kommandør', which equates to 'Commander'. 'Kommandøren' equate 'The Commander'.
This conversation should be eye-opening. Many in Europe fail to see how dependent we are on Ukraine both to be on our side and to win, to defeat russia. The alternative is that russia will go further (either after or before finishing Ukraine), and that could be our defeat. On the long term we are in a very dangerous situation. We must prepare ourselves, and most of all give Ukraine all they need to defeat russia, and be able to join our economic and military alliances. We must spread those news among us.
Well said; fully agree.
Most of us, of course, here in Eur don't want to have to give up the easy life be it characterised by peace-in-our-time, "low" gas prices, minimal defence spending or whatever. However, we did it through the Cold War for over forty years. And think, as you rightly suggest, as the recognition grows, that the alternative is de minimis RU hegemony over Eastern Europe, if not far wider on the Continent, then the popular political willpower for resistance/UA aid will come.
Meantime, then as you say, spread the knowledge :)
Europe and NATO should be spending this money to refurbish their own militaries. using it to make rubble bounce in ukraine is not helpful
@@peetky8645 As long as Russia is occupied in Ukraine there's little need for the own military.
Thus the money is mostly spent on rebuilding the military industry from its three decade hiatus.
Deadlock, not stalemate -
Stalemate is a chess term, meaning there is no way to resolve, so game over. War is not a game,
Deadlock is a computing term, meaning processes are blocked waiting for a resource held by other processes. A deadlock can be broken
Insightful; thank you will remember this!
There is no deadlock either but a high treason committed by president Zelensky and his bunch of quislings, including general Syrsky who undermined all the war efforts.
In the ocean of oblivious people around me intent on ignoring the shameful lack of ammo to the people holding the wall up between us and those that openly express their intent and desire to accelerate the inevitable destruction of the decadent West (in their minds),
it is so soul-healing to see there are people that see, and care, and counter the poisonous narratives every day.
So much respect for Silicon Curtain.
Same.
Beautifully said Christina.
The fact that you pretend to know what you saying by writing what I assume you believe to be a carefully crafted response, does not hide the fact that you don't know what you are talking about, don't do any basic research , and basically comes off as a complete idiot
Hear, hear...👍
holding the wall ? the west has nothing anyone wants LMAO
2 FANTASTIC GOOD WISE MEN, THANKS FOR YOUR VERY WISE TALK. BLESS YOU BOTH .
a wise man would surrender. ukraine lost.
Bs
Not 'wise' obviously. You're welcome to like and appreciate them and their intentions, but choose a more sensible adjective, please, or it's embarrassing...
A wise person questions himself and his own narrative far more deeply. It's a complex world to gain multifaceted understanding of, not just a simple good vs evil&crazy scenario.
"When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount." Dakota Indian Proverb
Have you asked the Dakotas what they think about the Russo-Ukrainian War?
@@martavdz4972
I asked them. They said that the russian federation is doomed.
@@philippage60 You mistook datura for sunflower seeds again grandpa.
@@Mastercane98
Ukraine will win because
russia was SUPPOSED to be the second most powerful army in the world and yet...
russia failed to take Kyiv in 3 days. In ANY days in fact.
They failed to take Zaporizhia.
They failed to take Kharkiv.
They failed to take Kherson.
They failed to take Donetsk and Luhansk after trying for 10 years.
They have run away from Sevastopol, beaten back by a country that has no navy.
Naval headquarters in Sevastapol has been destroyed.
The black sea fleet is being turned into a coral reef.
They failed to take Odessa.
They could not even keep hold of Snake Island.
putin has had to go to North Korea with his begging bowl.
North Korean armaments are already backfiring with a one in three failure rate.
The ruZZian economy is mortally wounded and will eventually collapse.
russian launches of international satellites has decreased by 90%.
russia is an international pariah.
At least a million russians have left the country, never to return.
Shortages of labour have meant laws have been passed to allow 14 year olds to work in factories.
Laws are due to be passed for women to work in heavy industries.
Laws are being passed to allow russian employers to force workers to do overtime.
russia has lost an estimated 90% of its pre invasion armed forces using WW1 meat assaults.
russia has been using convicted criminals to stock its army, as well as conscripting people in debt, to avoid an open mobilisation.
Freed criminals have returned from war to murder russian civilians.
russia is even recruiting Nepalese, Indians, Somalians and Cubans against the wishes of the governments of those countries, and migrants working in russia are also being targeted.
putin is so desperate for conscripts he has changed the law to fast track russian citizenship for foreigners who will fight for russia.
russia is no longer Europe's gas station and will never be trusted again. The cash cow is dying.
China is beginning to rewrite its maps to take back Chinese territory from russia and has now abandoned russia for the USA.
China is forcing russia to bear the full cost of building a new gas pipeline so they can get cheap russian gas.
China now owns russia.
russia as a world power is finished.
60% of the territory russia took in the initial unprovoked, illegal invasion has already been taken back.
putin has already faced one coup and there will be more to come.
russia has lost more officers and generals of any army in any war EVER.
NONE of russia's strategic objectives have been achieved.
Ukraine has the long term backing of the EU and the United Nations.
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are in the accession for EU membership.
Tourism to russia has fallen by 96% since February 2022.
NATO has never been more united and has expanded by two countries BECAUSE of the war.
The G7 has pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.
At the most recent military arms show in Saudi Arabia, russia did not make a single sale (not ONE) while the USA made billions of dollars in overseas orders.
Belief in russia's invincibility and military might is over.
Dissent within russia is beginning to grow.
Nobody believes russian propaganda any more.
russian utility infrastructure is beginning to collapse.
Whole towns in Russia are without heating and electricity.
russian soldiers are beginning to revolt.
russian wives are beginning to revolt.
Mysterious fires are increasing throughout russia.
Partisan activity is increasing on russian territory.
The russian volunteer corps has begun to attack inside russia.
Attacks on railways and communication hubs deep inside russia are rising.
Attacks on oil facilities are rising.
russia keeps losing SU30s and A50 planes to Patriot missiles.
The EU has unanimously approved a four year €50 billion package signed off by all 27 heads of state.
F16s arrive in spring meaning russia will no longer have air superiority.
putin is desperately clinging to the hope that the USA will abandon Ukraine.
The USA has passed a Bill to send $62 billion in lethal aid to Ukraine.
Now, which part of that are you struggling with, little vatnik?
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇬🇧💙💛
@@Mastercane98
Oh look, the russian made an ad hominem. 🥱
What’s also needed is for western advisors to help address the problem of Russia’s use of large gliding bombs. This is a severe problem for the AFU.
Great, insightful discussion with Anders. I have the highest respect for him and his analytical skills. Thank you Jonathan for inviting such distinguished experts.
Fantastic! Anders P. is certainly among the top ten Ukraine commentators. Very many thanks.
Hello from 🇺🇦
So, we have a growing homeless population, a huge national debt and border issues....yet, we fund ( close to $1T in borrowed $$) 2 wars on distant continents. ( Isreali and Ukraine)...nothing for taxpayers! Just plain wrong. War begets more war
...and we never learn.
It is sad to hear that casualties have gone up 20% in March vs previous months. The cost of playing a political game in the House.
Agreed, the democrats should start doing things to help Americans.
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz have established their legacy in Ukrainian casualties.
@@jerrymiller9039Why do you insist on tying together disparate issues?
@@squireson The US has no obligation to Ukraine. MTG and Gaetz are American politicians. They took an oath to support the US Constitution and the republic for which it stands. Their job is to support Americans.
@@PaxHeadroom What lie did I tell?
Are you aware that US politicians take an oath to support the US constitution and the republic for which it stands, not Ukraine?
The trouble for the UK is that the 2% defence spending doesn't get much
Spending at this level is actually leading to a reduction in the size and capabilities of the UK armed forces and volumes of weapons
I read somewhere the UK's military spending was less than 4% before WW2 and 40% during - so they really need to step up, all of Europe does. We in the US do too since we stupidly decided to allow Hitler to take Poland (Russia Ukraine) again rather than doing everything to prevent it. It would have been a bargain.
The 2% is a NATO guideline. It's not compulsory. It's a guideline for a nation's own defence. Britain is above that and has been for some time. It's pointless inventing arbitrary percentages when that one is the NATO guideline. Countries like the USA who go higher do so by choice and this is also a reflection of the strength of their economy overall. Not all economies are that powerful.
Correct, however given the situation, essentially not stopping Hitler in Poland, the UK like others in Europe will be forced to increase their spending for their own defense. The US has proven itself undependable it would be foolish to count on us and our spending isn't much more it's under 3% adjusted for inflation. We need to increase ours as well. As Churchill said you were given the choice between war and dishonor you chose dishonor you will have war. That was the choice we all made not defending Ukraine like we did Israel
Seems like UK would be more eager to invest in military if they didn't self-own their economy with Brexit.
someone said they were spending 3.5% back in the 1980's
You are absolutely right in your analysis. Unfortunately some Europeans and European Politicians have not understood this yet.
Always has the most concise, smartest questions. Best place for in depth analysis.
Thanks for a great interview. Really like Neilsen. Very factual, thoughtful and rational.
Dear Jonathan, listened yesterday brilliant Ms. Jessica, now also Mr. Nielsen, however, the "Wirtschafts- und Handelskammer der Russischen Föderation" = Russian Trade -and Commerce Chamber is still active in Germany and EU is maintaining full trade with Russia through Belgrade.
Ashamed to say, not much better in my beloved Croatia.
I´m afraid, if things with Russia get worse in couple of years, our police and military will have a homework to do.
Jonathan and Anders, thank you. As 90% of my comments just disappear nowadays this will probably also, but keep up the good work. I really hope Europeans especially further away from russian front wake up soon and not too late.
Thoughtful and honest discussion....Thank you gentlemen ! 🇺🇦
👍👍👍
Honest, thoughtful and beautiful comment.
Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦💛💙🇺🇸
@@philippage60 Wonderful intelligent and delightful response to the comment! Slava Sixty One BILLION dollars in Aid! Slava Ukraine! 😀
Likey! This is your week America! 🤝🙌👍
@@migproductions4045
As ever, great to hear from you and know you're there supporting Ukraine. 👍😉
An excellent, easy-flowing conversation.
Brought up more nuance than set-piece talks, easier to follow and somehow more credible.
"Brought up more nuance than set-piece talks, easier to follow and somehow more credible"
We all need the stimulation of conversation to get our thinking sorted out.
The US political system may be messed up and slow but our military logistics are the best so Ukraine shouldn’t be waiting too long.
The US is a mess ...just consider what the Supreme Court is up to and the deliberate abandonment of Ukraine for seven months
effected by just ONE man, not the President ( speaker Johnson). Is that the rule of law or democracy?
The US is untrustworthy
It looks the Pentagon had been moving as much stock as it could into Poland and neighbouring countries, while the Republicans were doing their russian owner's bidding. So that as soon as it gets the go ahead, it can move it into Ukraine.
@@ptonpc ****It looks the Pentagon had been moving as much stock as it could into Poland and neighbouring countries,**** YES , HAVE BEEN MOVING THE OLD 1980's MILITARY JUNK !
***the Republicans were doing their russian owner's bidding***
LOL - you mean by CLAIMING that NO CASH should be send to Zelenskij and his CORRUPT Oligatchs .... seems like avery good position ! 🙂
I do agree with this statement
That's correct a lot of things were pre-positioned. It's a matter of weeks not months before it hits the front line. Same with the first round of ammo from the CZECH deal.
It's sad that it took this long but we are where we are. Now we just have to hope Europe is ready to stuff up and 9 to 12 months. I don't believe another significant aid package will be coming out of the US following this one.
Thank you for having Anderson Nielson back.
Anders Puck Nielsen,
but you're close 🙂
Greetings from Denmark 🇩🇰
Yeah, experts like Anderson is why Ukraine lost 600,000 men and why all western Europe is getting it's ass kicked economically and militarily
He is Danish, not Swedish. So you might change the spelling......
It's crazy that we've been discussing the ethics of autonomous weapons systems for so long and now it's just happening because there's a war going on and nobody has the luxury of having these philosophical discussions when there's lives on the line.
I don't like what I'm hearing but I do appreciate the clarity. Thanks for this Jonathan and Anders.
Johnathan, you're a very skilled interviewer! You ask the very pointed questions that I would like to have asked of your guests. Outstanding job. And, by the way, thanks for having Anders on your show. I always enjoy his analyses & perspective on the war.
a cautiously optimistic view of things, nice to see the tide slowly turning
It isn't
This $60bn from the US plus EU support is likely to last to the end 2024
NATO needs to be planning now for 2025
The best host and guests on the subject of Ukraine. Please like 👍, subscribe for all future casts, comment and share via social media.
Thank you Jonathan and Anders.
If as not only that the West has been slow to arm Ukraine, but our politicians are still one step behind in understanding the consequences of Ukraine losing this war.
Yes. But I fear they are terrified of potential chaos of the breaking up of the Russian state, or “worse” yet the “Russian” nation.
The current trend is that every western nation will be minority western/european by 2050. The largest cities in Europe will be predominantly Muslim. How does Ukraine matter in all this? Is it important who controls Donbas or if a Russian stooge controls Kiev if our daughters cannot walk free on a street without a hijab?
Thank you 🙏 🇺🇦
goodbye Kersch bridge
Excellent discussion. Thank you both. Subscribed
"other munitions supplied by US, Germany, UK, and allies" why citing Germany who refuses to send Taurus, but not France who put on the table a new batch of Scalp and AASM Hammer?
I listed them in terms of size of unilateral provision of weapons. But we do mention France specifically later, and the strong contribution it is making through multi lateral military support.
Rebuilding power production in Ukraine is interesting to me, who is a big supporter of nuclear power and SMRs (Small Modular Reactors). These are nuclear reactors are built in a factory and then assembles on site. They are smaller than regular nuclear reactors, but much faster to build, and still large in a conventional sense. SMR seems perfect for Ukraine once the war is over!
Hopefully the Europeans continue to step up. This year is election year for America, and there is a non-zero chance of American aid getting cut off, meaning the Europeans have to be able to keep Ukraine supplied.
The Supreme Court in the USA is doing everything they can to get Trump re-elected. They recently decided that Texas can ( and Texas will) ban postal ballots, for example. There is now nothing to stop other states doing the same.
Fascism 101- subvert the judiciary.
I am watching all of your videos.
Thank you for the outstanding work you do!
I appreciate that!
Thank you, Jonathan, for your conversation with Anders Puck Nielsen, very much appreciated.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
❤️❤️❤️
What a joy it is to listen to both you talk about this critical subject. Thank you!!!!!
Is the Western world finally realising that if Putin isn’t ejected from Ukraine,there’ll be Bucha’s the length and breadth of the country…am I wrong?
You are not wrong. It’s imperative the collective west takes action.
I hope they understand Buchas follow the Russian armies wherever they go.
Two great people who help us understand by your insightful commentary. Thank you!
Great interview, thank you both
We're on the vanguard, socially. It's up to us to drag our fellow citizens into the light, as it were. Each to his own ability. 💛💛💙💙❤❤
You completely missed the topic of FAB-500 that are critical to the current change in frontline dynamics. And for which there is no proper solution yet
The glide bombs? I’ll bring this up in another interview soon.
The future is going to be very different. I doubt if Ukraine will find any value in producing main battle tanks, or rebuild large power plants. I think both are pretty obsolete as concepts.
Thank you both, gentlemen!
Slava Ukraïni! ❤️🇺🇦🔱✌️
Don't assume the US political fights over Ukraine are over. There is a substantial isolationist portion of the GOP. It has outsized power right now due to the extreme narrowness of the majority, but close majorities have been the recent trend. It will continue to wield power far in excess of it's size. Europe needs to really step up and not rely on the US as much as is possible. If necessary, it should approach the US about BUYING munitions from it to give to Ukraine. This would blunt some of the criticisms.
Agree, Europe should be self sufficient as much as possible.
There is still a chance of Trump winning elections due to gerrymandaring and the obsolete electoral college.
USA democracy needs a number of important reforms to prevent a minority from hijacking policies.
You both do so much good work in support of Ukraine! Thank you for this thought-provoking conversation that seemed to fly by; you're both so well informed and analytical, a pleasure to listen in. Heroyam Slava.
This was a most enlightening discussion. Much deeper than I expected. Synergistic effect with this host and guest that was greater than the sum of their channel contributions individually, which has been great for each.
Thank you, Jonathan and Anders, for the great questions and insights.So refreshing and unfortunately rare.👏
👍👍👍
The biggest issue with Ukraine is Sustainability, In morale and man power. And unfortunately those are very uncertain. I still don't see total commitment from Europe and America to this conflict. Economics will be the driving force in the future which will be a major headwind for Ukraine.
There are 1.6 million people of the Ukranian diaspora in one country 🇨🇦 and if the government asks, I will likely see thousands of people go to Ukraine.
Rebuilding, restoration, new businesses, more innovation.
These are possible starting with those people.
@@ninemoonplanet Why would they want to go home to a shattered country when they would be better off staying where they are?
@@dacorum8053 Because many of them have family there, and because they care about them. same reason so many non Ukrainians have gone to fight for Ukraine: Because they are brave and when the brave see evil, they DO something about it.
What's your excuse?
@@ninemoonplanet Great. Now, problem is - those are cannon fodder. See, Ukraine would need a year of Russia doing nothing - plus imaginary trainer and training centers - to make them into soldiers. Right now Ukraine "standard" (which often seems to be broken down to a couple of days of training) is 4 weeks. This is cannon fodder training. You cheer the death of a nation by mass murder through incompetent leadership.
@@dacorum8053 Because they are not Ruzzians.
Several new points in there I'd never thought of or heard discussed anywhere else... might have to listen again when I'm not doing the washing up!
Excellent guest 👌
Very interesting though much is purely stating the obvious.
Thanks to you both.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Fascinating decision discussing important matters from a deeper and slightly different perspective. Thank you.
I see that Mr Nielsen looks like he has been outside, (or at sea?) and got some son. You appear energized and very good. I hope that substance is tracking appearance!
Oh lord, spell much. sun, is the subject.
NATO countries need to increase their defence spending to Cold War levels which were around 5%
Those experts talking about unsuccessful counteroffensive of 23 should open the book, read articles about advancing under which circumstances (air superiority etc) and close their month. "We will give you penny , make a thousand from it."
Ty for podcast.
Great podcast....
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Ideas.
Electricity infrastructure underground in metro
A very valuable discussion from two knowledgeable observers. Thank you! On drones influence being primarily defensive, I think that is a feature of their early stage of development. If you look at drones as a subset of AirPower and the evolution of AirPower from reconnaissance and some bombardment in WW1 to a necessary component of blitzkrieg in WW2, I expect drones to eventually play as large a part in breaking defenses as reinforcing them.
An excellent and thought-provoking discussion, many thanks
These discussions give me hope. Even though the future looks grim, with long war and military escalation all over Europe. But... Democracy must be armed to protect itself, that has become very clear in these last two years.
Thank you Jonathan! 🙏🏽 🇸🇪💙💛🇺🇦
…and one must consider the costs incurred if the inexpensive drone hits its target. If a $4 million missile saves a damn or a hospital or a drone production line or a $60 million aircraft…
Donate your tears to Ukraine, furry.
Puck Nielsen is invariably insightful.
I cant believe this stuff is not there already? All of the bases of nato have a supply of them in inventory. A small portion from each is all thats needed to keep the machine rolling till reinforcement arrive in mass.
some people feel that slow reactions by security forces is a function of lack of authority to act without authorization from on high. Messages down the entire chain of command takes time (especially when responses need to be formulated by high level cadre in the first place). Power seems to fear individual initiative, I guess because A mania for effective control leads to suppression of initiative. It can’t be planned for, and planned for in advance. Lose degrees of (fictional) control if people willing to act alone, even in an emergency.
And independent action can lead to charges of corruption or worse🎉🎉🎉
Release the Hounds. Rid the world of Putin, the Fool.
Go Ukraine.
@@5GTrevorhow would you know are you head of the clown union 🤡 ukraine's about to rock n roll , and the only rocks that putin has is the one's that his own people through at him 🪨 🪨 🪨 🪨 🪨 🪨
@@5GTrevorhow do you know so much about clowns 🤡
@@5GTrevorukraine is about to rock and roll like you've never see
@@5GTrevorputins rock collection is the one his people throw his way, 🦆rock
Putin is MOSES
Strong analysis
I'm not so pessimistic about future US aid. I believe what we saw playing out over the last few months was politicians realizing this war not the blitzkrieg for which they'd hoped and coming to terms with the need for sustained support. I think something similar, though not quite so dramatic, has been happening in Europe.
Great article
Just a detail: rebuilding ukraines energy infrastructure will be much faster and easier than most anticipate. The green energy revolution and the digital revolution does set the stage for a rapid transition, and with soon-to-be stranded assets being destroyed by russia, the new system stands up as the logical solution. And itll go far faster than most anticipate.
At last there are some commentators echoing what I've banged on about on all of these pro-Ukraine channels, the fact the west does not want an outright battllefield victory for Ukraine, as much as that infuriates me. The west, even with the recent overdue US aid to Ukraine only keeps them in the fight. The west is petrified of societal collapse that would ensue in Russia. Even now the US and Spain have refused to send Patriot systems, only missiles, so instead of the minimum 7 Patriot systems Ukraine needs, they'll be lucky to receive 3.Germany still refuses outright to send Ukraine Taurus missiles. We must have this conversation and demand our leaders answer a simple question which nobody has asked in 26 months. Do we want Ukraine to win? Winning defined as liberating all of its internationally recognised territory - YES OR NO ? I pray for the sake of the people of Ukraine the answer is a resounding YES.
Thank you, Debmark , for all your help! ❤
I would like to see an interview with Marra Veshunova, a small channel from Ukrainian.
8:00 you can win the war with a purely defensive stance if you keep the front line stagnant. Then you cripple the enemy's economy so they are forced to surrender.
Trouble is that until they do surrender, they keep pounding your economy too. That's what's been happening these last few months to Ukraine, not being able to stop the Russian glide bombs and cruise missiles.
Very interesting conversation. I found Anders comments about defensive war being suited to drone warfare rather than offensive war particularly compelling.
You always have such good guests and conversations Jonathan.
Don't understand his argument. Drones make great forward observers, spies, capable of attacking enemy logistics, capable of curtailing enemy movement... All these attributes are very beneficial to an offensive.
Just about to go to bed when this popped up. Oh well, another late night.
Wauv, that was a brillant and informative video. Thank you so much to Silicon Curtain and Anders 🙏
Thank you Jonathan for these great interviews. I depend upon you for good information.
Greetings from Spain.
Fantastic conversation.
Very very good and revealing discussion between Anders Puck Nielsen and your self, many thanks.
A truly enlightening conversation. Thank you Jonathan and Anders.
I think that we must also be careful that, if we are going to have to empower Ukraine with arms we at the same time must prevent Russia getting its hands on any of those weapons. So, as I think Anders said, once you go into this there is no turning back. This would essentially take us from preventing Russia from winning to making it essential that Russia lose.
This restriction on the use of ATACMS was lost in the detail for me. Let the UKR forces use them as they see fit.
Ukrainians, more than any other people, and for many reasons, proven creativity, first hand knowledge, and consequences, among them; should make their own decisions.
I personally doubt that Ukraine will actually be restricted from using ATACMS on military targets inside the russian border. Perhaps they will be specifically restricted from using those missiles on oil refineries, but they will probably be entirely fine using them on any military base, airfield, naval facility, radar system, missile air defence or arms factories.
Remember, Ukraine was having little problem playing merry hell with russian assets over a thousand km inside Russia without any American weaponry at all. they will be happy to abide by some restrictions on ATACMS and reserve them for hitting other targets.
I agree that such restrictions are silly, Ukraine has shown remarkable control in how they have conducted their war, with almost unbelievably small collateral and civilian damage, especially contrasted with Russias blatant and continuous genocidal attack on schools, hospitals, and residential tower blocks.
@@charlesparr1611 Are restrictions silly when RU is a nuclear armed state openly hostile to the US and the West? With the vast majoirty of its nuclear weapons pointed at North America? Is it reallyy silly to prod a hungry bear? Seems sane to most of Washington, Berlin and perhaps Peking.
Is it silly of Biden not to want to be the man who started WW3? Is it really silly of Biden not to open a weak political flank to the (R) ahead of November; who wants to be labelled as possibly taking the US into WW3?
It is "silly" to conduct a war with one arm tied behind your back. This fully agree with. Ultimately, UA will not militarily defeat RU, to bring about a firm peace, without subduing contiguous parts of RU. And this is where think the current US/Eur policy will really run-aground e.g. if there is a stalemate that allows RU to continue to shell/missile attack UA and all-round harrass UA (denying arispece to civil airliners say).
Then, it may be politically expedient to allow UA to sanitise a border cordon to a depth of 300km or whatever with US/Eur weapons so as to bring about a clear near-term political goal. For now, however, as you identify there are plenty of UA territorial targets that destroying would advance their military campaign. Enough to run deep into 2025.
@@charlesparr1611 We definitely will be restricted to use ATACAMS in russian border. Last year they even complained about some Belgium *rifles* that was used in raid to Belgorod.
@@pavlosegeda8294 We shall see. Russia will not be allowed to win, and restrictions on targeting is already stupid. Since I fully expect nato troops to be deployed into Ukraine, this ridiculous restriction certainly will not continue.
As for Russian complaints, nobody cares about Russia, and nobody gives their silly threats any credence. Let them whine like the sad impotent old men they are.
I love your channel! Keep up the factful work! Let us all spread facts!
Informative video. Thank you..
Turn the tide of War? No chance at this stage, they will barely hold the stalemate let alone support another counteroffensive. Aid is also useless without manpower.
Russia has lost, they just don't want to admit it...
@@sharonlavery7656Yeah, now acquiring 20% of territory of your opponent state is called "lost" ok😂
@@sharonlavery7656 they seem to be retreating into Ukraine in that case.
Keep up this good work, and stay entertainingly articulate.
Insightful analysis. Thank you! Bottom line, while russia has turned to a war economy, Ukraine will only fend off the aggression if Europe also turns into a war economy. The US being too unreliable as a partner, this is a European war which must be won by Europeans.
Great interview, thanks to both of you.
Great interview (once again). Thank you, Jonathan & Anders.
I calculated late 2022 what west was sending and saw that it was not inaf. US, UK, Germany, France.. each was sending tanks maybe inaf for one battalion when they should have send tanks for division.. ten times more.. hope that now west sends inaf.
The short answer to the chiron’s question is a resounding no! It’s not the munitions that Ukraine needs contrary to popular belief. It is manpower. Ukrainian units have been drastically eroded to the point where most combat effective formations are at 40% strength. Russia, on the other hand, has an inexhaustible source of soldiers with more being trained and ready at a moments notice. This gives Russia great flexibility to rotate out personnel and replace with fresh forces without missing a beat. Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury and has to, out of necessity, constantly keep their soldiers on the front lines for months on end sapping their will to fight.
Great guest, and finally some good news.