Folding Bottom Set On AJT? | Ask SplitSuit
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 มิ.ย. 2016
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Carlos makes a super nitty fold with bottom set on an AJT flop - but was it the right fold? SplitSuit explains how misapplication of tactics can be disastrous, shows how even in a worst-case scenario we are doing just fine, and how even against very strong ranges from your opponents your set is best more than enough of the time!
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I cried when I saw the fold.
It's okay to cry. Bring it in
at least it was only 2NL.
You cried because of how good the sick timing tell soul read was right?
I cried because of fact that he has 34.43% equity even against the the straight, and that if the tag calls, he has the right pot odds anyway...
Noashakra tbh I dont think you should ever even consider folding a set before theres four card straight or flush on the board lol
People defending this fold are way to results oriented. Even in a high stakes game, this is a clear call. And much more so at microstakes, because the average player is going to have a very wide stack off range. I mean, come on. Its only 3$, and they are playing for fun, not to sit there and count their pennies after the session. Also many players at this level dont really understand bet sizes. They just know, that the strongest move in poker is all in. So if they have a strong hand, they just push the all in botton without really thinking about, if this is the most profitable line to take.
We actually folded here to aggression from a player, who had a worse hand. And that alone should be enough to tell people, it was a bad fold. That the player in the middle had just called with the nuts, is an outlier. Yes people sometimes just call with the nuts rather than raise it. But they call with a lot of other stuff as well, and you cant base decisions in online poker solely on timing tells.
If you didn't already do a video on it could you make a video soon about how to size your raises post flop? Also talk more about implied odds what they are and how to use them. Thanks man!
I can finally say one of your vid's had a direct impact on my games... I think I played it correctly!
Yesterday I was playing in $1/$2 nine-handed table, w/variety of stacks ranging from $40 to $200. In the hand in question I started w/about $150. I had 10/10 UTG and raised $10, receiving three callers. The first two I hadn't seen before but given the 30mn of play I witnessed at that point w/a lot of limp calling, put them as fish/loose passive. The BB called me, and he generally is a solid TAG I've played with on multiple times, who will mix it up on occasion.
The flop was K-J-10 rainbow. The BB checked, and I jammed. The BB had 100-ish behind post flop. The other two stacks were shorter, approx 40 & 60 respectively. My logic for jamming was I knew if anyone of the three caught the board, especially the shorter stacks, they would call. I knew KK & JJ would re-raise pre-flop, so my only concern was the BB flatting pre with A/Q. I'd seen him do that previously, but I've also seen him re-raise, especially when OOP preflop to try and whittle the opponents/take it down pre.
As it played, the 40 stack folded, the 60 stack called on the button and the BB folded. The button had A/J, looking to catch a gutter. the turn was a 4 and I got quads on the river.
I know not to let "results oriented" dictate whether it was a good or bad play, but I think it was correct.
Funny you mention it, I had kinda a similar story. I was in a 1/2 cash game ten-handed and had two eights. I forget the preflop action but the flop came 5 6 8 rainbow and there were 4 players still in the hand. I was first to act with my top set and bet 15 and got raised by the next guy to 45. The other two players folded. I actually put the raiser on 7 9 but figured if I was wrong about him having a straight I had him crushed and if I was right about him having a straight I had a lot of redraws to the full house. So I shoved for around 150 and he called and showed me 7 9. As it turned out I didn't hit the full house and lost the pot. I think I was partially influenced by the fact that there's no reason I felt to play 88 preflop if I was gonna fold top set. Although at the time I was a little annoyed with myself since I felt he wasn't raising there without 7 9 and my read at the time was correct.
I love these videos! Keep them up!
thank you!
In this particular case I think he just made a good read on "Good Tag", he did mention the snap call. The button was obviously just trying to scare them both off of his 2 pair so he didn't have to face a straight or flush draw. For those reasons, I'd say it was a good fold. If he had been facing 2 Unknown players and/or a less excited call from the 1st guy, he would be foolish to fold.
Love the vid keep it up!
But what if you actually put the second opponent in that calculator with the same range as the first?
I've had three times recently where I had pocket queens and flopped top set in a multi-way pot, went all in and found out my opponents had straights...fortunately the third of those times I either turned or rivered a boat (not sure which) but I thought I must be a fish for not seeing that there was a connected board when I went all in and losing to a straight.
You are getting the correct pot odds to call in this situation. With any set on the flop, you have roughly a 33% chance to hit quads or a full house by the river. And with top set, you are drawing to the nut quads/full house. You absolutely cannot fold in those situations.
You've done a lot of videos berating nitty folds. Could you do more on hero calls and range merging/thin value?
Nitty folds is - I think - a bigger problem than hero calls. It’s far easier to do a big fold than to do a big call (which puts more money on the table). Of course, people still make those mistakes (especially me), but that’s probably why it’s less frequent.
I think it's player dependent. For me my weakness is not folding enough/overvaluing my hand.
yeah this is a interesting one. i dont think i would fold here very often. but when the decent player willing flats a cbet on this board with 2 people behind vs a open and someone cbetting into 3 people i would be very worried. but on that same token its also 2nl. without the dude just shoving there and it going hu i probably wind up betting turn and check folding the river because by that point what do i get called by and what do i beat? fuck all. on the flop its much more difficult though and i'd probably just throw it in and hope the board pairs
Everytime I'm in this situation I always end up running against a straight. I've been in the same situation getting the same action about 4 times and someone ALWAYS has a straight. Of course I end up geting it in, but not as happy as I am usually with a set. Is like getting it in with KK against a NIT preflop and he ends up showing the obvious
This is what we signed up for!
in this rare case I think James' analysis is way off. Given the stakes and the action of the hand I think this is a begrudged fold as well. Although I do agree it's a spot to consider check raising the flop.
@@Storyvilleemcee Incorrect. You are getting the correct pot odds to call in this situation. With any set on the flop, you have roughly a 33% chance to hit quads or a full house by the river. Since neither player 3bet pre-flop, Aces and Jacks are highly unlikely.
How can anyone fold here?
At first I thought this was a clear call but now I'm not so sure. The thing is we only have *bottom* set. That means that we're almost dead against higher sets (which is realistically just JJ), and we have few ways to improve, because paired boards that let us win against straights or flushes give two pair a better full house.
While it's somewhat possible that both opponents might have something like AK and Kx spades, most likely we're in some trouble because of lack of clean outs. Normally you'd rather have a set than two pair, but villain with AJ has more outs than we do.
I mostly play live and will probably call here most of the time, but depending on specific opponents I could find a fold sometimes.
It's certainly one of the more interesting hands.
I don’t think this can ever be a fold.
It’s pretty unlucky in my opinion that the TAG had exactly KQ spades. I think any other KQ combo raises because it’s a 4 way pot and loose passive is still in the hand and can probably have almost any two spades. Any two pair or set hands should be raising 100% of the time on such a draw heavy board.
Other than the Uber nuts KQ spades, I expect TAG’s flatting hands to be mostly weak aces.
Then the unknown makes a ludicrously large overbet. Which looks very fishy. He can have KQ. But I think he can also have a lot of two pair hands that don’t know what to do and are scared of getting drawn out on so make this shove. Or conversely a lot draws that don’t know what to do so just shove.
So I feel we have to call. Most of the time TAG will fold his weak Ax and the unknown will show AJ/AT/JT/KJ/KT/QJ/QT and we’re well ahead.
Some of the time TAG will fold his weak Ax and the unknown will show KQ and we have 35%.
And on this rare occasion TAG shows up with KQs and unknown has the AJ for the worst possible match up leaving us crushed.
Hey Split, no comment on the 3x pre flop? (Causing 4-way, bet size, 2more to act, etc) It's like I don't know you anymore. Hahaha
I would have folded too, KQ have a floped straight and KQ suited is in TAG's calling range. If the TAG wasn't there, it would be an easy call. In my experience, on such connected boards which give a floped straight...better get out of the way with your set if alot of players are interested and Jam. It avoids burning money on fire. Hero made a good fold IMO, without being result oriented
If board pairs he’s got the nuts. If I flop set on connected board with a high SPR and isolate a 🐠 then all the flush’s and straights get crushed he’s gotta play the board in this situation and hope it pairs if he’s beat on the flop he’ll have it on the river if an Ace or Jack come up, or quads even. Silly fold.
How can anybody possibly consider folding here at like 1/2 cent no limit.... These are good video but honestly it's hard to take any of these situations seriously since there is a massive difference from just 1/2 cent compared to even just 10/20 cent...
Isn't 3x too small for TT? I know this isn't a cash game, but 6 max though...
It's fine if he/everyone has been opening to 3x during the session. You shouldn't be changing your opening size based on your hand strength.
And this IS a cash game.
vs a loose passive in the big blind though i see nothing wrong with going bigger then 3x
+iN VaLiiD that's what I was thinking. I can't imagine these guys are really good, so I'd always raise more than 3x with TT
3x is the standard though. i'd pretty much only do it if theres some total whale playing like 40%+ of hands. vs anyone else your gonna be running into pretty tight ranges
I'm sorry, but this time is the first time I don't agree with the review of this hand. If I go from the fact, that CO is 'good tag' and 3 players left behind him, that his range would not be too wide. And as played, his call perfectly fit to the drawy combos, FD or SD or FDSD and of course, nuts. Stronger hand, as set or two pairs, he would raise or shove. As BU played, I would suggest to shove here exactly set (JJ) or two pairs. He could shove also some drawy hands, but I would suggest he'd call with them. James is calculating the equity only against 1 player, there are 2 players and then the equity drops down. If I put in equilab above suggested ranges, the equity of hero is just around the limit of 35%. But to avoid misunderstanding - I would call as well, but I'd not be "happy" or I don't think that this spot is easy and very clear call. Oposite, for set of tens this is the one of the worst flop.
James you are the best out there! is there a way I can master the game as well as you do? LOL
meaning: can you be my trainer?
yeah just have the cash ready
if this is a real fold, this is crazy, its one thing if it was for actually a reasonable amount of money, but the fact it was on .01-.02 cent, makes this fold even more miraculous. if I was in this spot, im always beating unknown, and im assuming the villain was drawing with maybe a pair. an im getting it all in.
Hi SplitSuit, love the videos! Could you make a video about the best way to play on sites like facebook or with play money, where for example most players are making very light ridiculously inelastic calls or thinking 77 or Ax is the nuts pre-flop. Thanks for the great videos!
Just bet strictly for (thin) value. That's it! \o/
how can you say oh the opponent never really has the nuts? of course thats true but that doesnt mean you just get it all in whenever the situation rises
Did the conversation end at "he rarely has the nuts"? Or was that just one variable considered within the whole answer?
uh, even i would never fold three tens here....
Lol good tag at this limit.
he probably doesn't play high stakes like you I guess
The only player who knows what is he doing is AJ :)
Dont think this fold is nearly as bad as you describe it. Yes he could have A J or a flushdraw, but even though it's low stakes people are decent at valueing their hands. I don't think there arent a lot of players going all in on such a wet board with worse than AJ. And against this narrowed range, which both still could have (the player left to act could as seen be slowplaying a monster) we don't do so well.
dont agree with you , the unknown can be an idiot player , he could have alot of draws and alot of AX type of hands ....and the regular just calls....that puts him on a draw in my oppinion ...so youre ahed there alot of the times its just super bad not to call...i play low stakes im a winning player after waching splitsuit s videous ..well i have like100k hands at NL2 on pokerstars and trust me they turn the weirdest fuckin handssometimes its amazing !
never ever folding there!
Exactly. A very non-zero percentage of the time the unknown player at the BTN will show up with random nonsense like K5 of diamonds, which he decided to turn into a bluff, and the good TAG will just fold.
@@tiagomota4734 "weirdest fuckin hands" doesn't even closly describe their possible hands. On this flop people could easily go ALL IN with pair of deuces
This is the difference between read based play and math based play, based on a read, this is a fold. A tough fold, and not one I am sure I could make but the clues are there. Everyone in this hand played perfectly. Watching the video, I was more worried about the guy who flatted behind than the guy who shoved. Turns out to be correct. I was sure we were beating the shove reading that as 2 pr or KX flush draw. While we can't always assume intelligence, if we call the shove we have to assume that the monkey in the middle is either an idiot chasing a screwball hand with live outs or a player trying to extract value from the player ahead and behind. When I have some time, i'll plug this into flopzilla my way and reply here later.
There are not anywhere near enough clues here to justify getting away from this imo
Where is what we know...On these wet flops in the micro's, no one's bluffing so we can rule out that. So that leaves that both players have something. Even so called good players aren't going to bluff a flop like this multi-way. Even if they try, the fact that one person shoves makes the situation un-exploitable. One would expect a made flush to bet for value (not shove) and no spade straights, sets and two pair to bet for value Pocket pairs with big spade combo draws play pot control check call street by street or they might shove, depending on player aggression.
We also know that hero could be c-betting with as little as a pair, and the middle player has to have something as described above.
Am I off on any of this so far? I'll get to flopzilla asap and post more.
You don't choose between read-based play and math-based play. Reads and math are always working together simultaneously.
Its not "read based play", that one opponent happened to turn up with top two pair and the other with a straight. Which in a 3-way situation is more or less the worst combination of hands, they could have had. That is just coincidence. Based on any realistic range assumption for both opponents, this is a clear call.
stfu guys soul reads >> logic any time.
If BTN has KQ why would he shove for so much?
Yeah you can't ever fold on that flop. Only time I'm ever considering folding is if the action continues and the board runs out with 1) any queen or king, 2) any two spades, 3) 8-9, 4) A-A, or 5) J-J. Basically only if the board goes disastrously bad.
i would base my decision on preflop action and players styles
So even if we can soul read the "good tag" and put him on exclusively the nuts, aren't we actually getting the right odds to call to draw to our full house against him? So even with our "sick soul read" we are actually folding a profitable call against his exact hand no?
If we knew that this tight version of phil ivey had KQ exactly, we had to fold HU+3way.
But if we also know that "unknown" has either 97,7% of his range (everything but TT+) or only 62 drawing dead stuff, we could call with about 2BB+EV*.
* = when considering 10%rake (wich you dont really do. i did it to show, how bad our shape is against KQ of *random noises*)
so.. no. we can not really call if we know that he had KQ of **.
** = Dont know if its club or spade... got no headphones so cant hear it in the video. me no very english
The perfect hand in Poker stars. Any one agrees with me? Not something for everybody - but HUGE for everybody in the hand.
Is there anything Carlos did right. Were there some substantive clues that can get you away from this cooler?
If one person showed me KQ and the other showed me JJ - I could get away from my TT here =P
James (SplitSuit) :P
I strongly feel Carlos made the correct fold here. (a) it's a four way pot. (b) we have the ten of spades which narrows the flush draws down significantly. (c) this board hits our range pretty hard. (d) the player behind us smooth called so he clearly connected - so it's unlikely a bluff is getting through. Unless we're looking at a terrible player with rando naked flush draws and no concept of range, who is ignoring the fact that they're getting a fine price to see the turn, there's not a lot of bluffs here.
Value wise there's AJ, which we beat, and a couple AT combos we beat, 89 of spades exactly which is technically ahead... that's like 12 combos we are currently beating. Does our villain do this with one pair hands + gut shots like AQ? Seems a bit spurious.
Value that we don't beat - KQ. 16 combos. JJ, 6 combos.
There's more value beating us. We also have to consider that both KQ and JJ are in everyone's range in this hand. So we have the other player left to contend with. Given his range favors a lot more hands that we are beating but it's still something to consider.
pot odds wise. were forced into calling. the shover is almost certainly a fish just overplaying some random draw or two pair ( ffs hes shoving for 5x the pot ) and then no matter what the co has after we call hes probably priced in with all of his pair + gutshot hands hes gonna have anyway. only shitty part is a bunch of the time were only gonna have 1 live out to improve vs at least one hand with tons of equity against us. one of those spots where run good helps i guess. i was thinking at higher stakes this could be a fold sometimes because of how regs might change their preflop ranges due to fish dynamics but even then vs the one shove were priced in. folding here is almost certainly -EV long run by alot though i can understand exploitably making a very nitty fold because of the CO's line with a obvious fish in the bb probably putting him on a very very strong pair+combo draw at minimum. plus if he wants to keep the fish in the bb in how often can we discount aces from his flatting range? though that might just immediately raise otf because suddenly its pretty vulnerable and then apeshit guy gets it in anyway. interesting spot for sure. if your gonna fold bottom set here i certainly wouldnt make it a frequent habit.
LMFAO
u fold a set there no wonder u are a 2NL player...
Folding a set on a wet board against multiple opponents is not a bad fold. If the board was Dry, it would have been an aweful fold
spew-fold
I'm shocked how many commenters are defending this uber-nitty fold. It's an awful fold, period. Literally the only hand that would have us crushed here is JJ (6 combos). Everything else we either have lots of equity against (KQ) or are crushing (any A-x).
In my opinion, I have to disagree with this. Against one player this is an instant call. Against two players it's a fold. Your equitable was only against one player. You have to put one of the two players on a convo draw or a straight or both and that's not good odds for you
Equilab*
Sometimes you make the right decision and lose. Sometimes you make the wrong decision and win.
(or prevent losing.. but thats kinda the same)
Unknown could even have 74o and superTAG could have AQ and call.
Theres just waaaay too much that hero does crush in both ranges.
+ultrajonasroxxor not a chance that the unknown has 74o. You can't factor that into your analysis on the fly. It's bad poker. I may be wrong but I think it's closer than split suit is implying. I think a fold here is not as bad as calling. A combo draw Kx of spades is doing very well against bottom set with 13 outs.
To say that you're getting it in here "very very happily" is just hyperbole. I just can't believe that you win this hand enough of the time to consider a fold bad against two players
+ultrajonasroxxor actually I may have spoken too soon. His ten of spades blocks a lot of combo draws. The only hand the villains could have are KQs. KTs and QTs are both blocked by Hero's ten of spades. And the Ace of spades and Jack of spades are on the board. Very, very few Kx or Qx of spades exist against decent players. Still K9s and Q9s/Q8s are possible hands that have decent equity against you.
***** That 74o is pretty unlikely yeah..^^ but given that its 2NL... you know? also i get the point that its not a situation where you call happily, as if you had AA and get it all in preflop but TT is doing pretty good against realistic ranges of both players.
I wrote another comment to someone who asked if the call wasnt decent even if we knew that TAG had KQ.
The 2NL factor alone is making that spot pretty easy. I think even @ 100 NL you could call it, but it would be way closer.
when I saw the title my initial reaction was FUCK NO!!! before I even watched the video. When you fold sets on the flop like this you are loosing so much money all the times that your wrong. sure you look cool for guess ing correctly here, but if you are folding in this spot what are you calling with? exclusively the nuts?
"When you fold sets on the flop like this you are losing so much money all the times that your wrong" very well said.
i really think there are situations where you have to fold because some players are obvious ...it happend to me i didnt folded the hand but i knew i was beat ...a tight player just calls the raise i continuation bet with my bottom set the flop was 9 6 3 and he jamed on this flop it was obvious he has a better set but i just couldnt fold it....but here the situation is different since they can easly have draws or two pair or shit like that...so you must call and your hand can improve as well..
Keep folding your way to being broke jajajjaja
set vs top 2 vs nuts = welcome to Stars :))
It's annoying all those posts speaking about how PS is rigged.
***** yeah the call all-in is a shitty stat. It's not actualized street by street, so if you go all in river when you are behind, the curve don't take that into account. I quote another guy on a forum >>> "What is usually called 'all in EV' should actually be calculated and adjusted STREET BY STREET. Let's give some basic examples. Let's suppose that I have 66 and my opponent has aq. Pot is say 1000. Flop shows aa6. He bets 500, i raise to 1000, he calls. Turn is 8. He bets 2000, i raise to 4500 he calls. River is q. He goes all in with this remaining chips, says 1000 and i call. What we see in the all in EV curve in PT is a drop of 7000 both in my virtual curve and my real curve. Instead the virtual curve should be ADJUSTED to take into account the fact that odds were in my favour until the river comes. More explicitly in this case the virtual curve ahould show a move of approximately (-22% * 1000 + 78% * 1000) + (-16%*4500+85%*4500) - 1000. There is many other situations like this: you have kj and your opponent has aq, flop is aq2, both check, turn is T, bet / raise / call then a q comes at the river. Or when your opponent has q5 of diamond the flop is q72 (2 diamond 7 spades say) you have aa, he raises you call, then a 10T of diamond comes at the turn, he bets you call, the finally a 3 of diamond and he finally gets the flush. Etc etc."
***** So you can just be a losing player who don't know how to fold his over pairs/sets when the other hit trips/straight/flush ;)
***** And I watched a video on a poker player showing his stats, and he ran bad for 300K hands, so no it's not unlikely...
+Mihail S yeah, it is called personal experience and feelings. It is not a proof, and pokerstar is one of the biggest room in the world, with thousands of players using huds. don't you think the 2+2 forums and others would have discover the scam by now?
There was never a proof of that.
good TAG in NL2 :DDDD
do you play anywere man? at NL2 there are decent players belive it or not...
maybe on Stars lol and nowhere else
Even if you knew what they had that's still a call.
This makes no sense. If you knew what they had it's a fold because you've only got 1 out.
Yes you're correct.
ugh cringe at the "good" tag flat call.
Why? He has a good position (cut off) and a hand which can flop nice combo flops. If he knows there is a chance at least one other person call behind, and there is no 3 betters, why not?
I meant the flop call. So bad.
John Smith Why, he has the nuts and the nut flush draw. His call is ok, you don't want Ax, Q9, 89 and spade suited connectors to go away. I don't hate his call.
Dude... 4 way pot... 5NL... crushed a wet board... you need to ask for money to get it... slowplay is terrible 99% time... all those hand are not going away most of the time if you raise....
It's better to have one or two people commit a lot of their stack with a draw than to call down 1/2 pot bets with 3 other people to the river and have everyone fold when their draws miss...
The fish instinct is to "disguise" their hand and slowplay... that's why they limp aces in multi way pots... so ugly...
John Smith I am not saying it's optimal, I just say it's not horrible. He is not really afraid of AA JJ as played, so not a lot of set possibilities. If the others are calling stations, yes he should raise. But we don't have much on the other players to work with.