You have the best Poker channel in youtube. I subscribed because you are the only guy i can properly understand. Keep up the good work and dont forget that all the great players were beginners once. Dont give for granted that we all know all the acronyms and abbreviations, trust me, many of us are very keen on learning but just taking our first steps. Thank you for the videos!
I play AK like this sometimes especially if raised. The main reason is when you do hit your opponent is usually confused and has no idea what you have. The downside is you might have to fold with the best hand when you miss. Cash games are a lot harder because they usually have better starting hands
@@eggnocpoker if he had played 100s of thousands of hands like some of us, he'd know better. I remember when my strategy revolved around shoving sets, 2 pairs, nut flush draws, and mega draws on the flop. I also remember when I stopped being a mediocre player and realized all those all ins weren't even profitable after a 5% rake.
I am normally not a big fan of very fast play or huge coin flips, but I think, it was the best line, Hero took here. If he just called, he would not be getting a good price to draw, and turn play would be very awkward especially out of position. Unfortunatly for Hero he just ran into someone, who overvalued his hand, made a bad call and got lucky.
Still learning here so apologies if this doesn't make sense but I have a question. In the second fold equity calculation with the expanded range when the value for "We break even if villain folds this percentage" goes negative (-19% in the vid) does that mean we're actually now trying to fold out a range that is slightly behind ours? and therefore I guess should be betting with the hope of getting called?
No stress Mike. If the FE Calculator churns out a negative number it means that the shove is outright profitable and you don't actually require any folds to make it profitable. That alone does not mean that it's OPTIMAL, but it does let you know that it's +EV =)
Of course his math is layed out really well, as usual, and I appreciate it. But I believe you're making his range a bit wide. Is someone really getting that aggressive with draws? Most players at these stakes don't really do that unless they're tilting. They are very value-centric. Unless I have some more info on the opponent I'm certainly putting an A in their hand and the equity calculations should have leaned more in that direction. Also Flush vs Flush are extremely rare (chances of two players having same suited cards in a 9 ring game is less than 2 %). At microstakes I really think you have to reduce bluff percentages because they players aren't as sophisticated as at higher stakes and are typically not GTO aware. I went into Equilab and gave villain essentially any A and we are a slight dog (46%) and if we strengthen that range to something more reasonable like A6+ (suited and non) we are a huge underdog. Throw in some broadway combos and we are still significantly behind. Even given that I might still agree with SplitSweeney but his AF percentage is quite on the high side and just too likely to call a shove.
Like you saw, even worst case scenario you have decent equity, and it's so much more likely that he has garbage, as you even have the A blocker. AK was a very loose call, dude butchered the hand but got lucky.
Hi SplitSuit, Thanks for your videos, I've watched a lot and learned a lot from them. Isn't this spot a very good argument for folding this hand preflop? We have top pair and a flush draw against a player who may or may not have us completely crushed. Folding seems bad, cold calling seems bad because we don't know what to do if we brick the turn, and in order for a shove to be profitable, we have to assume that button is raising here with a pretty wide range of semibluffs. This is kind of a dream flop for our hand, and yet none of our options seem that great. Going back to preflop - the BB is still to act, and might squeeze, and even if he doesn't, we are going to see the flop out of position in a multiway pot. So it's going to be really hard to realize our equity. The only flop we're fist-pump jamming on is 8-high with two clubs, which is extremely rare.
Do we completely discount the UTG opener who just cbet into 2 players on a board that smacks his range? We have to consider he has at least 4 combos (AA/TT) that definitely call us and depending on how fish is he another 22 (AT, AK, AQ) that he may have/may call.
It's essentially the same thing. It's extremely unlikely that both players are going to call, and if they do this is great for us because in that case we're REALLY +EV because now we're getting 2:1 on our money, they'll most likely block out each other's redraws if they have strong hands, and both players pretty much share the same nutted range if you swap AA with 22 which we've basically got the same odds against. On top of that the board doesn't really "smack" his range that hard. Yes he could have some super strong hands, but he's more likely to have all combos of KK than he is to have AA or TT. You can't always give people credit for flopping monsters. Additionally shoving into the PFR gives us even more credibility because it puts him in a really tough spot. Because of the action in front of him he can be reasonably expected to fold everything except sets. AK here is not an auto call (and should be folded). In fact given the action it's a very real scenario that in some cases the PFR could have AK, fold it because of the action, and the flop raiser goes away with AJ.
You need to take into account, that you can get called from more than one player. So heads up maybe you think, they fold 30% of the time but 3-way only 20% of the time and 4-way only 15% of the time. Or whatever you estimate the numbers to be.
At the end of the day, hero ran into a donkey who called the shove with a shitty hand. Hero had 45% equity; that's about as good as it gets when you shove with ANY level of fold equity. And if villain's cards were face up, shoving would be profitable even with ZERO fold equity. So there's no issue with hero's play; he just ran into a lucky donkey.
As everything in poker, this falls under "it depends", and what it depends on is the potential fold equity that you have against your opponent. You're not jamming for value here, as very rarely are you ever getting called by worse. It's just situational based on SPR and perceived fold equity. I agree that this is probably fine in standard 100bb online poker, but I see people get into a lot of trouble making plays like that in a live setting with 200+ bb stacks.
I think the opponent hand range is much too optimistic. It's not too hard to make a big bet with second or third flush draw, but it's a lot harder to call one. We have the ace so any caller will have some kind of made hand, and this isn't penny ante, people aren't calling shoves with second pair, or usually an ace worse than ours. We have some fold equity against bluffs, worse pairs and flush draws, but our only showdown value is completing the flush. With three in the hand, if there are two callers someone has at least two pair so we're also facing a full house redraw. It's not to say that shoving is terrible here but it's not extremely clear cut and I'm not surprised at all that villain has AK.
Dear Mr Sweeney,I would like to ask a related question.With a flush draw as we have here I would say your odds of hitting are a little worse than 2 to 1 maybe 3 to 1. I hit fewer than that,by far. So is the RNG dealing true? I understand this may have been a live hand but I don't get this anomaly online.ty
I dont think you can give your opponent 43s and 54s considering this was a UTG open, I dont expect a 19/12 to be calling with those hands even OTB without those hands you dont get the FE for this and it becomes a clear fold as much as it sucks Seems that spots like this show that we should be squeezing or folding A9s especially if the alternative is playing a 3-4 way pot OOP
@@JohnSmith-cy8hq the shove is only +EV if button has flush + gunshot draws in his flop raise range. I'd wager less than 20% of NL10 players would raise that mega draw here. Of the remaining who would, more than half would probably just shove instead of a proper bet size. Button is going to show TT, 22 and AT most of the time. Followed by AK, A2s and maybe AQ.
I thought the only hands he could have were TT, 22, AT, AK and super rarely A2s How many players are raising that flop with a flush + gut shot draw 3way?
When the oponent overbets and dont pay us out when we are drawing to a flush...he is getting is crushed in the long run...its not a good idea to shove flushes unless you have fold equity
I don't really see any merits in jamming here. By shoving here we just always get called by the button's value hands, which are always going to be stronger than our current hand. Just because shoving is +ev doesn't mean it's the most profitable play. Flatting and keeping in the original better's fd's (which are drawing dead) is surely going to be more profitable. Yes we face awkward turn spots if we call and don't improve, but we get stacked by shoving flop vs hands that beat us anyway. If villain ever bluff raises no equity (it is 10nl) shoving just takes away his opportunity to bluff it off on turns. I can't envisage a scenario where shoving is going to be more profitable than flatting
It definitely sucks. But that shouldn't be an argument for shoving. The same value hands that jam turn for value we get it in on the flop when we shove anyway. Readless, If i was playing 10nl, I probably tank flat flop just to maximise chance of randomly bluffing off later streets and plan not to fold at any point. I would not make an aggressive action given the opportunity at any point in the hand unless i improved to a flush or a 9.
I don't disagree with the premise of the video, that is that we simply cannot fold here. I just think calling is significantly the most profitable play
Well we can't figure out which line is higher EV without first exploring the other options. In order to estimate the value of calling, we first need to make some assumptions and estimates of their win/loss values...
I like this conversation. According to the range we Input on equilab, we all agree on 2 things, we dont have much fold equity, we have enought equity to continu. So the best thing to do here is actually to call call call, hoping u wont have to commit the whole stack. And shove the river if u hit.
As others have pointed out, even if this play is +ev, that definitely doesn't make this the best move. Actually, I'd argue it's a pretty terrible move. Worse hands are basically never calling this check-raise shove, so we HAVE to get lucky against the hands that DO call... and there was only about 3.50 in the pot... why risk almost 10.00 to win 3.50? The ONLY benefit to this play is that we get to realise all of our equity.
I think 3-betting preflop is way too aggressive for 10NL, 8 handed. Especially after facing a 3x from UTG. Chances are good someone has AJ+ or TT+, and are too passive to 3-bet themselves or fold against your 3-bet (given it's 10NL). You'll be crushed a lot of the time if someone calls. Also, I would make a painful fold on that flop. I think shoving is a bit too gambly. It's 10NL, I'd say wait for a better spot. But it is probably +EV, like you showed, so I'm not against it.
Actually I think, the best play here preflop is to fold. A9s is crushed against a standard UTG open range at full ring, and we are only getting a 16,7% discount. So we are purely calling for implied odds, when we make two pair or better. And is that really all that great, when we have the worst possible position on the table? I think, most people would perferm better at 10 NL full ring by simply playing as snug as possible from the SB. As for the jam, its really dependent on your range assessment. As stated in the video its clearly negative EV In the worst case scenario. It only becomes + EV, if you can include dominated flush draws in buttons raising range, or if he have hands, he will raise-fold. Some players at 10 NL play draws more passively. So if you think, he would just call with his flushdraws, or you are unsure, then there is nothing THAT wrong with taking this spot off.
That's pretty standard see that with ace king a lot in low stakes they like to hit one of them first then go nuts. Terrible way to play the hand cause you get blown off of it on bad flops and don't realize equity.
Terrible way to play AK is to always 3bet. Raising it 80/20 or 75/25 is superior vs observant opponents. Obviously this doesn't apply to aggro players who only fold or 3bet.
James (SplitSuit) Good to know, my initial thoughts were that it seemed quite nitty considering he has position. Your videos are very informative. Thank you 👍👍
In zoom games on pokerstars it's actually more profitable to flat ak & jacks ags most decent tag opponents who raise utg 6max, calling ranges are extremely tight and people overplay lots of hands postflop so calling has more merit. Problem with raising is you only get action from better most times & risk getting blown off your hand.
There are for sure implied odds but just not enough. You will make a flush less than 1 out of 5 times on the turn. So just to use round numbers, you need to win his entire stack of 10$ every single time, because you are investing 2$ on a call. And thats just not going to happen. Sometimes he will not stack off, when the flush completes, because even a blind person can see a flush on the table. And other times the board will pair, and you will lose your entire stack to a boat.
Well first of all, i like your channel and nice videos. However, i want to say that shoving there is a weak play. Yes you have + ev and if it was a tourney then i would def. Agree with shoving there, but at a cash game thats a weak players move. I used to play like that cause i know i had + ev in those situations and its a lazy and scared play. You can easily flat call there and lets say orginal raiser UTG calls too. You have a nut flash draw so if you hit your flash without paired board you will win anyway and with A only you wont be winning that pot vs that button raise anyway. Also Q on the turn will make button slow down ans you can even try showing on Turn and have a more fold equity from button. Or if board paired on turn, you can give up on the pot etc. Its very unlikely button will have a 10 only so if another 10 hits, you can bluff button or it will stop him from going agressive on turn etc. There are many other options you will have if you just play the hand without shoving especially with deep stacks . Anyway thats just my thoughts. Still keep up the good work
arghhh I have learned do not shove flush draws very i[often unless you believe you are ahead of their range a call would have been much better maybe u even move villain off AK later in the hand hero must be a loosing player
You cannot call here. If you are just flush drawing, you are getting a 1-card draw more often than not (and of course, the price is WAY wrong for a 1-card draw).
so what do you suggest folding the nut flush draw Im just not on board with the shove everytime minus 1 or 2 times when ive shoved the nut flush draw I miss loose a stack just like hero screw that I usually agree with you James are you seriously suggesting the shove is profitable. vs AK it may be but he should have had a stronger range than just AK if I was him so hero got lucky he was only up against AK
If villain calls with AK here when is he ever folding it unless a club comes? Also you could very well be ahead of their range and get folds from better hands. Between the times that the villain will have some of the draws that split suit mentioned, the times that they'll fold AJ and possibly AQ, call with worse aces because they put YOU on a big draw, and call with any 2 pair hand that isn't A10 (which means they're actually behind) this shove is + EV in the long run. Not by a huge margin, but enough to make it profitable. This isn't just any old flush draw pair + *nut* flush draw isn't your run of the mill middle flush draw scenario.
perhaps ive been playing too much zoom I used to shove in this spot. 100% I believe this is a bad play ;aybe its +EV, but I think you loose a stack more than 50 percent of the time which is simply not worth gaining 3.37 id love to play vs hero, also id rather be on villains side of the coin flip had we seen the hole cards prior to the shove (edit just double checked equity with these exact cards, I understand we are up against a range of hands but given a cbet then a raise im surprised the range wasnt stronger, hero has 45 percent which I aint putting my stack at risk with 45% equity every stack matters to me I tilt easily)
Ha, I've watched 3 videos of SplitSuit - I agree the action is all +EV, however, all videos I watched the Hero has not won hahahaha. Show some videos that Hero won to give us confidence!
How can folding out all worse hands while stacking off against all better be the right move ever? I mean, you're so far ahead of everything that folds and so far behind everything that calls that I can't see how jamming is highest EV, even if it is +EV. It's reasonable to say that pretty much all he's raising to fold to a jam is his draws. YOU HAVE 80-90% EQUITY AGAINST THEM!!! How could folding out a range you crush, while getting it in VS a range that crushes you be good? I have never disagreed with a Split Suit video before. I'm open to see how I'm wrong.
Against the range you have 80-90% equity against, do you actually get to showdown often? Or do you end up folding out your chunk of equity on the turn when you face a shove and don't improve?
I do see what you're saying. But if you are committed in either case, why not just check and call down? You get much more value out of the draws. And you lose the exact same amount to the hands that beat you. No? Am I missing something?
If you call you are not 100% committed, so you are only putting the same amount both ways IF you are actually going to call all turn/river bets unimproved too.
It's called homework. It's how the decent players get better, the good players get great, and the great players patch up their few remaining holes. Poker isn't looking deep into someone's soul and making a great call, it's making the correct decisions by comparing our range to our opponents, and working our best to avoid being exploitable.
Wtf is with this title? Top pair nut flush? I am still waiting to get a flop this sexy all year and it is already April. You ate a sorry nit if you are even thinking about folding here. Call or raise should ve all you are considering.
Yeah, but the swings only matter because they increase your ROR. At last from my view. So, yeah, seems a little LOL to run it twice when the "ruin" you risk can't buy lunch. But, I guess it's different for everyone. I forget how hard it is to make a few bucks as a teen. Whatever, not tryna get in a dick wagging contest.
Yes, the swings increase your ROR. The difference between us two is that you look at a full buy-in at 2NL as pocket change, but I look at it as 100 big blinds.
Hey Ryan. Quick question back to you...if you hop in your car and drive to the store today, and to no fault of your own you happen to get into a car accident...did you make a mistake by going to the store today?
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You have the best Poker channel in youtube. I subscribed because you are the only guy i can properly understand. Keep up the good work and dont forget that all the great players were beginners once. Dont give for granted that we all know all the acronyms and abbreviations, trust me, many of us are very keen on learning but just taking our first steps. Thank you for the videos!
You're very welcome Juan!
I play AK like this sometimes especially if raised. The main reason is when you do hit your opponent is usually confused and has no idea what you have. The downside is you might have to fold with the best hand when you miss. Cash games are a lot harder because they usually have better starting hands
nut flushdraw and toppair if you dont commit the chips on this board better fold A9c preflop
I know what a joke. I am still waiting to flop something like this this year. I never get this lucky lol
marginal 1 pair and fdraw vs likely 2p + / combo draw - idiot logic4
@@eggnocpoker if he had played 100s of thousands of hands like some of us, he'd know better.
I remember when my strategy revolved around shoving sets, 2 pairs, nut flush draws, and mega draws on the flop.
I also remember when I stopped being a mediocre player and realized all those all ins weren't even profitable after a 5% rake.
I know James may not agree w my logic but at low stakes go for it. If you can dbl up then can start working towards being table captain.
I am normally not a big fan of very fast play or huge coin flips, but I think, it was the best line, Hero took here. If he just called, he would not be getting a good price to draw, and turn play would be very awkward especially out of position. Unfortunatly for Hero he just ran into someone, who overvalued his hand, made a bad call and got lucky.
Still learning here so apologies if this doesn't make sense but I have a question. In the second fold equity calculation with the expanded range when the value for "We break even if villain folds this percentage" goes negative (-19% in the vid) does that mean we're actually now trying to fold out a range that is slightly behind ours? and therefore I guess should be betting with the hope of getting called?
No stress Mike. If the FE Calculator churns out a negative number it means that the shove is outright profitable and you don't actually require any folds to make it profitable.
That alone does not mean that it's OPTIMAL, but it does let you know that it's +EV =)
Ok, I think maybe I'm trying to read too far into that value, thanks for reply, keep up the awesome videos.
Of course his math is layed out really well, as usual, and I appreciate it.
But I believe you're making his range a bit wide. Is someone really getting that aggressive with draws? Most players at these stakes don't really do that unless they're tilting. They are very value-centric. Unless I have some more info on the opponent I'm certainly putting an A in their hand and the equity calculations should have leaned more in that direction. Also Flush vs Flush are extremely rare (chances of two players having same suited cards in a 9 ring game is less than 2 %).
At microstakes I really think you have to reduce bluff percentages because they players aren't as sophisticated as at higher stakes and are typically not GTO aware.
I went into Equilab and gave villain essentially any A and we are a slight dog (46%) and if we strengthen that range to something more reasonable like A6+ (suited and non) we are a huge underdog. Throw in some broadway combos and we are still significantly behind.
Even given that I might still agree with SplitSweeney but his AF percentage is quite on the high side and just too likely to call a shove.
Like you saw, even worst case scenario you have decent equity, and it's so much more likely that he has garbage, as you even have the A blocker. AK was a very loose call, dude butchered the hand but got lucky.
Hi SplitSuit,
Thanks for your videos, I've watched a lot and learned a lot from them.
Isn't this spot a very good argument for folding this hand preflop? We have top pair and a flush draw against a player who may or may not have us completely crushed. Folding seems bad, cold calling seems bad because we don't know what to do if we brick the turn, and in order for a shove to be profitable, we have to assume that button is raising here with a pretty wide range of semibluffs. This is kind of a dream flop for our hand, and yet none of our options seem that great.
Going back to preflop - the BB is still to act, and might squeeze, and even if he doesn't, we are going to see the flop out of position in a multiway pot. So it's going to be really hard to realize our equity. The only flop we're fist-pump jamming on is 8-high with two clubs, which is extremely rare.
Do we completely discount the UTG opener who just cbet into 2 players on a board that smacks his range? We have to consider he has at least 4 combos (AA/TT) that definitely call us and depending on how fish is he another 22 (AT, AK, AQ) that he may have/may call.
It's essentially the same thing. It's extremely unlikely that both players are going to call, and if they do this is great for us because in that case we're REALLY +EV because now we're getting 2:1 on our money, they'll most likely block out each other's redraws if they have strong hands, and both players pretty much share the same nutted range if you swap AA with 22 which we've basically got the same odds against.
On top of that the board doesn't really "smack" his range that hard. Yes he could have some super strong hands, but he's more likely to have all combos of KK than he is to have AA or TT. You can't always give people credit for flopping monsters. Additionally shoving into the PFR gives us even more credibility because it puts him in a really tough spot. Because of the action in front of him he can be reasonably expected to fold everything except sets. AK here is not an auto call (and should be folded). In fact given the action it's a very real scenario that in some cases the PFR could have AK, fold it because of the action, and the flop raiser goes away with AJ.
You need to take into account, that you can get called from more than one player. So heads up maybe you think, they fold 30% of the time but 3-way only 20% of the time and 4-way only 15% of the time. Or whatever you estimate the numbers to be.
At the end of the day, hero ran into a donkey who called the shove with a shitty hand. Hero had 45% equity; that's about as good as it gets when you shove with ANY level of fold equity. And if villain's cards were face up, shoving would be profitable even with ZERO fold equity. So there's no issue with hero's play; he just ran into a lucky donkey.
At this level sometimes I wonder if shoving makes you seem more polarised and weaker, people are less likely to fold
As everything in poker, this falls under "it depends", and what it depends on is the potential fold equity that you have against your opponent. You're not jamming for value here, as very rarely are you ever getting called by worse. It's just situational based on SPR and perceived fold equity. I agree that this is probably fine in standard 100bb online poker, but I see people get into a lot of trouble making plays like that in a live setting with 200+ bb stacks.
I think the opponent hand range is much too optimistic. It's not too hard to make a big bet with second or third flush draw, but it's a lot harder to call one. We have the ace so any caller will have some kind of made hand, and this isn't penny ante, people aren't calling shoves with second pair, or usually an ace worse than ours. We have some fold equity against bluffs, worse pairs and flush draws, but our only showdown value is completing the flush. With three in the hand, if there are two callers someone has at least two pair so we're also facing a full house redraw.
It's not to say that shoving is terrible here but it's not extremely clear cut and I'm not surprised at all that villain has AK.
Dear Mr Sweeney,I would like to ask a related question.With a flush draw as we have here I would say your odds of hitting are a little worse than 2 to 1 maybe 3 to 1. I hit fewer than that,by far. So is the RNG dealing true? I understand this may have been a live hand but I don't get this anomaly online.ty
I dont think you can give your opponent 43s and 54s considering this was a UTG open, I dont expect a 19/12 to be calling with those hands even OTB without those hands you dont get the FE for this and it becomes a clear fold as much as it sucks
Seems that spots like this show that we should be squeezing or folding A9s especially if the alternative is playing a 3-4 way pot OOP
I agree opp never has 43s here. I'd rather play 54s over A2s if I was that button as well.
His range was TT, 22, AT, AK and rarely AQ or A2s
The guy with AK didn't 3bet pre because he was afraid of UTG range. Still that don't justify flatting :)
Even if shoving with this hand is slightly -EV it's the perfect balance hand for when we shove AT and TT and 22, which will be massively +EV.
lol you don't do -EV moves to balance. This shove is +EV and it's not even close.
@@JohnSmith-cy8hq the shove is only +EV if button has flush + gunshot draws in his flop raise range.
I'd wager less than 20% of NL10 players would raise that mega draw here. Of the remaining who would, more than half would probably just shove instead of a proper bet size.
Button is going to show TT, 22 and AT most of the time. Followed by AK, A2s and maybe AQ.
I had the first raiser on anything, and the second on a stronger ace, probably paired with the 10, or the king
I thought the only hands he could have were TT, 22, AT, AK and super rarely A2s
How many players are raising that flop with a flush + gut shot draw 3way?
When the oponent overbets and dont pay us out when we are drawing to a flush...he is getting is crushed in the long run...its not a good idea to shove flushes unless you have fold equity
I don't really see any merits in jamming here. By shoving here we just always get called by the button's value hands, which are always going to be stronger than our current hand. Just because shoving is +ev doesn't mean it's the most profitable play. Flatting and keeping in the original better's fd's (which are drawing dead) is surely going to be more profitable. Yes we face awkward turn spots if we call and don't improve, but we get stacked by shoving flop vs hands that beat us anyway. If villain ever bluff raises no equity (it is 10nl) shoving just takes away his opportunity to bluff it off on turns. I can't envisage a scenario where shoving is going to be more profitable than flatting
Going down that rabbit hole...if you flat the turn and brick the turn...what is your plan? Are you going to lead, check-call, or check-commit?
It definitely sucks. But that shouldn't be an argument for shoving. The same value hands that jam turn for value we get it in on the flop when we shove anyway. Readless, If i was playing 10nl, I probably tank flat flop just to maximise chance of randomly bluffing off later streets and plan not to fold at any point. I would not make an aggressive action given the opportunity at any point in the hand unless i improved to a flush or a 9.
I don't disagree with the premise of the video, that is that we simply cannot fold here. I just think calling is significantly the most profitable play
Well we can't figure out which line is higher EV without first exploring the other options. In order to estimate the value of calling, we first need to make some assumptions and estimates of their win/loss values...
I like this conversation. According to the range we Input on equilab, we all agree on 2 things, we dont have much fold equity, we have enought equity to continu. So the best thing to do here is actually to call call call, hoping u wont have to commit the whole stack. And shove the river if u hit.
As others have pointed out, even if this play is +ev, that definitely doesn't make this the best move. Actually, I'd argue it's a pretty terrible move.
Worse hands are basically never calling this check-raise shove, so we HAVE to get lucky against the hands that DO call... and there was only about 3.50 in the pot... why risk almost 10.00 to win 3.50?
The ONLY benefit to this play is that we get to realise all of our equity.
I think 3-betting preflop is way too aggressive for 10NL, 8 handed. Especially after facing a 3x from UTG. Chances are good someone has AJ+ or TT+, and are too passive to 3-bet themselves or fold against your 3-bet (given it's 10NL). You'll be crushed a lot of the time if someone calls.
Also, I would make a painful fold on that flop. I think shoving is a bit too gambly. It's 10NL, I'd say wait for a better spot. But it is probably +EV, like you showed, so I'm not against it.
Actually I think, the best play here preflop is to fold. A9s is crushed against a standard UTG open range at full ring, and we are only getting a 16,7% discount. So we are purely calling for implied odds, when we make two pair or better. And is that really all that great, when we have the worst possible position on the table? I think, most people would perferm better at 10 NL full ring by simply playing as snug as possible from the SB.
As for the jam, its really dependent on your range assessment. As stated in the video its clearly negative EV In the worst case scenario. It only becomes + EV, if you can include dominated flush draws in buttons raising range, or if he have hands, he will raise-fold. Some players at 10 NL play draws more passively. So if you think, he would just call with his flushdraws, or you are unsure, then there is nothing THAT wrong with taking this spot off.
This is more like a 2X raise and then a check/fold on turn if we don't hit the flush.
you're aware you have less than 1/4 to hit the flush at turn? this move is really really ev-
with nutflushdraw I hope the whole table calls my all in
What website hosts games at these stakes with real money? Or is this from a fake-money game?
Almost every site has micro limits like 10NL.
James (SplitSuit) thanks for the response james. Im new to this... what site would you recommend for starting online poker? Real money
PokerStars if you have it available
I appreciate the response James.
If i live in California, what is the best online website for real money? I would love your input
Mariano you don't have many options outside of ACR and Ignition. Might suggest looking for live games instead tbh.
That's pretty standard see that with ace king a lot in low stakes they like to hit one of them first then go nuts. Terrible way to play the hand cause you get blown off of it on bad flops and don't realize equity.
Terrible way to play AK is to always 3bet. Raising it 80/20 or 75/25 is superior vs observant opponents.
Obviously this doesn't apply to aggro players who only fold or 3bet.
James, haven't talked to you in a long time, hope you are doing well! Emperor on 2+2
what are your thoughts on the button just flatting with AK? is that a profitable play?
Some players, including pros like Jonathan Little, advocate for calling with your entire range against a UTG raise.
It can be. But only when it's done with a reason beyond just "I'm a nit who only 3bets KK+"
James (SplitSuit) Good to know, my initial thoughts were that it seemed quite nitty considering he has position. Your videos are very informative. Thank you 👍👍
You're very welcome!
In zoom games on pokerstars it's actually more profitable to flat ak & jacks ags most decent tag opponents who raise utg 6max, calling ranges are extremely tight and people overplay lots of hands postflop so calling has more merit. Problem with raising is you only get action from better most times & risk getting blown off your hand.
why just flatting is not an option?there is no implied odds i guess
There are for sure implied odds but just not enough. You will make a flush less than 1 out of 5 times on the turn. So just to use round numbers, you need to win his entire stack of 10$ every single time, because you are investing 2$ on a call. And thats just not going to happen. Sometimes he will not stack off, when the flush completes, because even a blind person can see a flush on the table. And other times the board will pair, and you will lose your entire stack to a boat.
no i dont think a blind person can see that no
you kinda sound like jonah hill
Now this is a good comment!
Well first of all, i like your channel and nice videos.
However, i want to say that shoving there is a weak play. Yes you have + ev and if it was a tourney then i would def. Agree with shoving there, but at a cash game thats a weak players move. I used to play like that cause i know i had + ev in those situations and its a lazy and scared play.
You can easily flat call there and lets say orginal raiser UTG calls too. You have a nut flash draw so if you hit your flash without paired board you will win anyway and with A only you wont be winning that pot vs that button raise anyway.
Also Q on the turn will make button slow down ans you can even try showing on Turn and have a more fold equity from button. Or if board paired on turn, you can give up on the pot etc. Its very unlikely button will have a 10 only so if another 10 hits, you can bluff button or it will stop him from going agressive on turn etc.
There are many other options you will have if you just play the hand without shoving especially with deep stacks .
Anyway thats just my thoughts.
Still keep up the good work
arghhh I have learned do not shove flush draws very i[often unless you believe you are ahead of their range a call would have been much better maybe u even move villain off AK later in the hand hero must be a loosing player
You cannot call here. If you are just flush drawing, you are getting a 1-card draw more often than not (and of course, the price is WAY wrong for a 1-card draw).
so what do you suggest folding the nut flush draw Im just not on board with the shove everytime minus 1 or 2 times when ive shoved the nut flush draw I miss loose a stack just like hero screw that I usually agree with you James are you seriously suggesting the shove is profitable. vs AK it may be but he should have had a stronger range than just AK if I was him so hero got lucky he was only up against AK
If villain calls with AK here when is he ever folding it unless a club comes? Also you could very well be ahead of their range and get folds from better hands. Between the times that the villain will have some of the draws that split suit mentioned, the times that they'll fold AJ and possibly AQ, call with worse aces because they put YOU on a big draw, and call with any 2 pair hand that isn't A10 (which means they're actually behind) this shove is + EV in the long run. Not by a huge margin, but enough to make it profitable.
This isn't just any old flush draw pair + *nut* flush draw isn't your run of the mill middle flush draw scenario.
perhaps ive been playing too much zoom I used to shove in this spot. 100% I believe this is a bad play ;aybe its +EV, but I think you loose a stack more than 50 percent of the time which is simply not worth gaining 3.37 id love to play vs hero, also id rather be on villains side of the coin flip had we seen the hole cards prior to the shove (edit just double checked equity with these exact cards, I understand we are up against a range of hands but given a cbet then a raise im surprised the range wasnt stronger, hero has 45 percent which I aint putting my stack at risk with 45% equity every stack matters to me I tilt easily)
I broke down the math vs ranges in the video. I can't really expand much more beyond that =)
Ha, I've watched 3 videos of SplitSuit - I agree the action is all +EV, however, all videos I watched the Hero has not won hahahaha. Show some videos that Hero won to give us confidence!
Realistic expectations>confidence
"Mathematically prove"
How can folding out all worse hands while stacking off against all better be the right move ever? I mean, you're so far ahead of everything that folds and so far behind everything that calls that I can't see how jamming is highest EV, even if it is +EV.
It's reasonable to say that pretty much all he's raising to fold to a jam is his draws. YOU HAVE 80-90% EQUITY AGAINST THEM!!!
How could folding out a range you crush, while getting it in VS a range that crushes you be good?
I have never disagreed with a Split Suit video before. I'm open to see how I'm wrong.
Against the range you have 80-90% equity against, do you actually get to showdown often? Or do you end up folding out your chunk of equity on the turn when you face a shove and don't improve?
I do see what you're saying.
But if you are committed in either case, why not just check and call down? You get much more value out of the draws. And you lose the exact same amount to the hands that beat you. No? Am I missing something?
If you call you are not 100% committed, so you are only putting the same amount both ways IF you are actually going to call all turn/river bets unimproved too.
I would have folded A-9 preflop..:D
Isnt that too nitty?
Don't you guys feel that you've gotten a bit too math oriented when you're putting numbers into calculaturs more than you're actually playing poker?
Mattias Hansson hahaahhahaha what the fuck are you saying
It's called homework. It's how the decent players get better, the good players get great, and the great players patch up their few remaining holes.
Poker isn't looking deep into someone's soul and making a great call, it's making the correct decisions by comparing our range to our opponents, and working our best to avoid being exploitable.
Wtf is with this title? Top pair nut flush? I am still waiting to get a flop this sexy all year and it is already April. You ate a sorry nit if you are even thinking about folding here. Call or raise should ve all you are considering.
Even worse it is low stakes. If you fold $10 here I would shit on your grave.
Running it twice on a pocket change table, now I have seen everything.
You dumbass... You're not running it twice because, "oh there is so much money on the table"... You're running it twice to reduce variance.
+WayManlyWay And why do you want to deduce variance?
Because that makes your progress less swingy and thus gives you a lower chance of going bust if you run into a string of bad luck.
Yeah, but the swings only matter because they increase your ROR. At last from my view. So, yeah, seems a little LOL to run it twice when the "ruin" you risk can't buy lunch.
But, I guess it's different for everyone. I forget how hard it is to make a few bucks as a teen.
Whatever, not tryna get in a dick wagging contest.
Yes, the swings increase your ROR. The difference between us two is that you look at a full buy-in at 2NL as pocket change, but I look at it as 100 big blinds.
it was a poker bot. the hand is fluid. he only had AK after the turn. you got beat by a robot.
well you can do all the theory and math you want but he still lost. Leave the bluffing to the pros!
Hey Ryan. Quick question back to you...if you hop in your car and drive to the store today, and to no fault of your own you happen to get into a car accident...did you make a mistake by going to the store today?