This video really is a response to the many requests I got for a six month update - though given the current battlefield developments I thought it better to focus on economics and politics rather than the military campaign in this video: I'd also like to say thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel: Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun A few caveats here because I couldn't fit them in the description: 1)NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO IS FINANCIAL ADVICE 2) Economic projections are obviously prone to significant uncertainty 3) I really don't want to be accused of cherry picking data - but unfortunately when talking about energy markets it's hard to nail down hard values. Take the discount on Russian Ural crude for example. The Yale paper cites $35 a barrel as the discount rate and we have examples of that - but the current spot price is closer to $20 a barrel, but we also have claims countries are saying no to contracts at $30 a barrel on longer terms. In essence, it's hard to say definitively what the discount is and next to impossible to say what it will be. We know Gazprom profits are up, dividends may be restored, but shares were heavily down, volumes are at risk, and Ural crude is massively discounted. There are plenty of examples like this where you have a huge choice of data available, and I wanted to call that out. 4) I also want to note I misspeak a few times (including once when talking about who and who isn't dependent on pipelines but I think those examples are obvious in context). 5)I also say one Russian official is 'high up in the Russian government' which is relatively meaningless as a statement - I should just have said Russian official. 6) Regarding survey data, it's always worthwhile checking methodology and source, including error margin and sample size. Links to many of the ones used in this presentation have been provided. 7) I also want to stress that, regardless of tone, I do deeply sympathise with those in nations like Hungary and Romania who feel the need to put price stability first. This war (and the associated energy crisis) are an incredible tragedy, and there is clearly a need for the EU and national Governments to work harder to protect vulnerable people from the impacts.
Small nitpick but the segments the video is broken up into in the progress bar are too small to be of much use. Larger generalised sections by topic would be better.
@@williamdieffenbach3264 Blood purges doom the criminal regime in moscow. 8 Gazprom executives "comitted suicide", half a dozen politicos like Dugina also had "accidents" dozens of dead Generals since 2008 half a dozen billionnaire oligarchs also "fell gravely ill and perished" cancers, heart attacks, bullets, lots of ways to fall out of a window in Russia. It's going to be like 1937...
Ahh yes, what is better than a 60 minute lecture on defense economics? Obviously an 80 minute lecture on defense economics. Jokes aside, never worry about a video being too long.
Much appreciated - though I do feel like 60 minutes is more comfortable for many people than 80. I'll try to cut down unless a topic really merits the time (and I feel this one did)
I'm in Poland. One thing I noticed in Warsaw since war started is that people in general are much more friendly to foreign people (except Russians I believe).
I was an officer in General Staff of Croatian Armed Forces in late 1990 early 2000. All what you are doing with these analyses, that is closest to the real work that we were doing in those times in MoD and General Staff than anything I have seen on TH-cam so far. How you put all this together is fantastic. Great work! Respect! Regarding the war itself, Slava Ukraini!
@@meekmeads Well, I cannot speak for them and tell you why they become like they are now. After 1991 we in Croatia do not consider them as brothers anymore. If we can speak so, we are considering them as relatives, but one that are becoming more distant as the time is passing. In present days their “brothers” are Russians. And Russians will help them to “de-nazified” Croatia, right after completion of that Ukrainian project they are dealing with…. That is what most of their commentators are talking about. Of course, not all of them, but that is main accent. Unfortunately.
@@meekmeads Serbs dont love Russia its just relationship that actually brings food to the table. But romantic part of it kinda takes over in these kind of conversations....untill trade snaps as anywhere. Politics and ordinary people opinion is not something that always go together. One is pure pragmatic aproach other is just propaganda washed up people, thats all that people opinion really is. Demonising Russia or China or any other power is stupid. Because when you start really researching why Russia is not part of EU aswer pops up verry fast. Its simple. Russia is too big. Its exactly the same why Serbs were hated in Yugoslavia. They were just too many, too strong of a nation in comparisment to others who felt threatened for a reason. Thats just root of all politics between 2 countries, 2 ethnicities, 2 nations, 2 armies, 2 organisations or 2 men. Add a multiple and nature of it doasnt change it just complicates but stays the same.
@@dariogifc0 I admit that I don't get that. But in any way in all those analysis he is managing to describe how complex any war is and how deep consequences it is producing not jus for parties in war. From the name of the site, Perun is acinen Slavic equivalent of Thor, I understand that he is of Slavic origin and I think he said that he is related to Croatia.
Dont worry russia will do its final ultra mega pincer attack by 2075 and encircle kiev, overthrowing a now happily retired Zelensky! See? Russia will win eventually!
Pragmatically speaking, if Russia did a full scale coup and invasion during the 2014 Maidan revolution they could have swept up the entirety of Ukraine. By locking the Ukrainians in a brutal proxy-war in the Donbass following the annexation of Crimea, the Russian subjected themselves to a desperate situation with little to no gain (both in military, political, and economic leverage).
@Ebbe B If you have not seen them already, I highly recommend the videos of Vlad Vexler on TH-cam. He is a Soviet-born political philosopher now living in the UK who has been following the Putin regime since its beginning. According to him, the true reason for Putin starting the war was desperation to prevent loss of power; he needed legal justification to consolidate power in the Kremlin and a ‘special military operation’ enabled him to do so.
"The victor is not victorious if the vanquished does not consider himself so" It is the will and strength of the Ukrainians to resist that will win the day.
I think you hit the nail on the head with that quote in respect to why the Ukrainian government has imposed a news blackout on the Kherson offensive. Don't get me wrong, my wife of 24 years is Ukrainian, and from the Kherson area (and her twin sister lived in Kherson until she evacuated to Kyiv around June 1). Ukraine is suffering heavy losses, much to be expected due to the switch to offensive rather than defensive operations. Russia reinforced the Kherson pocket (really, that's what it is with the bridges down) with some of their best remaining troops (in particular airborne units) that are neither breaking or surrendering. The Russians however are stretched to the limits and are being forced to using air power to try and block Ukrainian break outs. Currently some small units of Russian troops are essentially surrounded and really must think of either fighting their way out if possible, or surrendering. Logistics wins wars, and any troops cut off from supplies has a very limited life expectancy. Right now the question is can Ukraine sustain the losses long enough to break Russian resistance. The news blackout makes this much more likely, and in the next two or three weeks the battle will be decided. In October, Ukraine will start seeing fresh troops trained in the UK arriving, and they are rested, trained and fresh. Russia needs to get supplies across the river in substantial quantities before then, as well as fresh troops. The next three weeks are as critical as the battle for Kyiv, and Russia is very slowly losing.
@@richardgray3112 Russia does understand that using nukes is essentially a surrender and admission of defeat. Ukraine still has nuclear reactors, and dirty bombs are a thing when delivered to the center of Moscow. Don't bet on Russia using nukes unless Ukraine crosses the border into Russia.
As a Brit, I'd rather endure a hard winter and a recession than be dictated to by Putin and abandon Ukraine. And I'm very far from wealthy. Some things are more important than economic comfort
My favorite recent Russian Bot talking point: Russia takes a month to take one block of Severodonetsk: "Russia's advance is breathtakingly fast and unstoppable, and Ukraine will inevitably crumble in another month!" The SAME DAY Ukraine announces it is trying to reclaim a territory Russia has seized: "The Ukrainian offensive has already failed! Ignore all those reports of panicked Russian defenders with no supplies!"
Its funniest part of that is when Ukraine takes miles of territory in a day its somehow an example of failure. Its entirely possible and reasonable the Ukrainian offensive will grind to a halt eventually but trying to have a conversation with a bot is entirely futile. People can only express opinions via memes now.
What do expect from paid bots? They are already elated at their soldiers barely holding some captured villages against Ukrainians. Not NATO, US or even Poland. Against Ukraine.
"Western economies will collapse under inflation and high energy prices" "You will run out of baby formula" ... baby formula, I can do without. But had they said we would run out of toilet paper ... again ... then I'd imagine bidet prices would go up ... again.
Yeah, umm, about those "reports". Russian soldiers were running out of water, food and ammo 3 days into the war. So yeah, best ignore propaganda disguised as reports.
Yeah, posted some ridiculous numbers like "4000 dead! 90 tanks lost! 60 APCs!" Sure, maybe add some HIMARS there? Maybe a carrier group too since we're daydreaming anyway.
It's so nice to watch a TH-cam channel that's actually smart and considered, and where even the comments are civil and discussions are healthy. It's very rare to find a channel like this when the vast majority of the channels on this site are just sensationalist, hyperbolic and toxic. Well done Perun mate. You're doing Australia proud. This website needs more mature channels like this aimed at people who think. Also worth noting that Australia's first shipment of LNG has reached the UK with more to come. I really hope we can help Europe out more. Australia is a very reliable trade partner and I hope Brussels remembers this when negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement between us and the EU resume. It would give the EU much better access to our resources, and especially rare earths as we are now trying to break China's monopoly on them.
I also like that he does a great service to us in the comments section by removing stuff like all the whatsapp crypto scammer bots. I wonder if he’s aware of all the other TH-cam bots that post links to other videos saying “finally its here” or something. Those bots tend to clutter up the comments section to unreadability.
Perun: "This is no war of rapid advances and encirclement. This is a war where advanced are measured in the tens or hundreds of metres". Ukraine: "Hold my vodka "
I'm a retired US Army infantry officer. You're video a analysis is on-point and very well-considered and nuanced. Great job time after time in a fluid situation. I'll have to join your Patreon.
Some cannot afford to pay but subscribe, like and comment. Internet is very expensive in Canada. Whenever you post I drop everything to watch. Keep it up and can you do a campaign of Command Carrier 2 game?
I reckon Perun must actually be a front for the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre because there's no way that one guy could produce this much insight in this much detail :-).
You gotta love how technology allows talent like Perun to eke out a niche in the media space. I am now more informed than I'd ever be if TV was still all we had. (Thanks Perun).
Technology is also allowing the Defence Minister of Ukraine to have a funny "Fella" Inu pfp. Him using it shows his power level. That's why Russia is invading, they fear his power level, and are trying to contain his strength on this plane of existence.
@@swaghauler8334 I couldn't have expressed it better, You Tube has the potential to be an unequalled source of high quality educational material. This channel is outstanding in that respect.
A large part of public support of a no fly zone is that most Americans think implementing a no fly zone is a simple as a America declaring a no fly zone much like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy in The Office. This stems from the decade long no fly zone over Iraq where nobody was told what that entailed.
Given that Ukrainians seem to wreck havoc with partially operable/integrated HARMS - its not far from reality for US/NATO. Granted, policing sky over Belarusia/Russia could be flash poiint, but would they have to? NO. If NATO/US would enforce no-fly zone, it could warn about incoming cruise missiles as well, plus AAA assets would be way more safer, so could operate at full, rather than from hiding.
I've been listening to your videos for a while now - and I have to say this: You are, without a doubt, setting a standard of journalistic objectivity and actual research that *hardly any* news media in existence today can meet. I am in absolute awe of your quality of reporting. Please, never stop.
To be fair, he also follows a completely different process and delivers a completely different product than general news media. Because he basically doesn't do news. If normal news media would be reporting with an information lag of several days or even weeks, they'd also be more accurate and better researched
@@anna-flora999 More well researched bullshit*. The news itself would still be just as nonsensical, there would just be more cherrypicked sources to pretend that it's real. News media is in the business of getting you to watch, not in the business of making sure you're well informed. How truthful it is depends on how well the truth would sell.
Perun, your channel has demonstrated the power of the internet to democratize information. Thank you for the ongoing geopolitical education, I deeply appreciate it.
I do appreciate that you take the time to translate GDP back into the human perspective. A 2% growth in GDP can be tens of thousands of dreams coming true; new houses built, that ice cream shop you always wanted to open, the immigrant buying a hot-dog stand... and conversely a 2% contraction can represent family business gone bankrupt, a life savings going up in flames, and a family having to put its dreams of having its own home on hold for a few more years.
I wish more people also understood that is the reality for millions of Ukrainians too. This war is a travesty and completely unjustified, especially given what Russia stands to gain in the unlikely event of a Russian 'victory'.
It's considered more entertaining than Netflix in Australia, the scary fucking thing is that we copy elements here but get Nick Byrant's book. Even Potus is reading it.
Everyone laughed at me when I said this would be like Iran-Iraq and not Desert Storm in January. The Russians couldn't perform SEAD against the Georgian flak batteries, and you don't call the new chief of staff Shoigu the "plywood marshall" because he's effective or beloved. Without SEAD and thus an ability to fly CAS wherever they are needed means that they just couldn't support their thunder runs for shit. This was inevitable.
The 2003 thunder run was possible in part due to. Iraq’s heavy top down command structure. Poorly motivated troops and commanders (can’t say I blame them) Great intel to know and exploit all this. Air superiority and the expertise to do CAS. CIA just paying off commanders to not fight (smart move). Russia was never gonna have a thunder run in part due to not having any of these factors. Ukraine on the other hand has. Motivated troops allowing to think for themselves (and the Comms never got cut in the first place) Poor intel No air superiority. And a bunch of other reasons.
I am from Georgia and when I researched deeper how Russians fought I was surprised how bad they are. If not CAS we would have more chances to push them or stall them. Georgians fought well, Russians had no motivation nor tactics. Grozny shows this as well. It's quite pathetic. Russia should leave Caucasia and Ukraine alone. Go back and give the land back. Georgia has suffered enough. So many have been dying for centuries, I am honestly tired. it's time for Russia to pay. So many innocents are dying. West is here to blame as well but if Russia knew that West wanted to weaken them, why start the war? Why play west's game?
A a Swede, i would actually love a video on the European energy market and the reforms being discussed. We have an election in a week, and energy are one of the most discussed topics, but due to how complex the issue is no one really understand it. It has basically devolved into a discussion on who wants to build the most nuclear reactors...
Uh oh, that's not a good sign. Nuclear reactors are complex to build and plan because of inflexibility and the severe consequences of failure. Planning to deploy them in haste, or as a response to current events, is like saying you're going to fast-track a levee program to deal with river flooding. It *might* work out fine... but it seems generally inadvisable.
@@louisvaught2495 Swedes we're actually the first to find something fishy going on in Chernobyl when their radiation alarms were going off in their reactors They traced back the radioactive contamination away from their reactors to some wind blowing from Belarus
@Louis Vaught I havnt heard any politicians in Sweden seriously suggesting the construction of new power plants. They have however discussed changing our energy strategy - going from shutting down reactors to instead keeping them running longer. Constructing a nuclear power plant is a 10-15 year multi million (if not billion) dollar endevour.
As a Bulgarian the callout at 1:04:30 is well deserved. The older generations (>50yo) have something of a Stockholm syndrome when it comes to Russia. Although it was the Soviet-style dictatorship that made them poor slaves, they just still can't grasp that it was the lack of democracy that led to their poverty.
As a Romanian, it stings, but it's true. Lots of old and uneducated people remains în the homeland. Most of the young, skilled and educated population has emigrated in the last 32 years since the revolution. Corruption doesn't help either.
@@PerunAU The thing is, inflation was already growing worldwide largely due to the pandemic. It accelerated due to increased oil costs (again, globally). High oil prices were triggered by the Russian invasion, but have been dropping as shuttered capacity comes back online. I’m in Mexico. Beans and tortillas have stayed the same price (there’s price controls on corn, I’m not sure about beans), but baked goods have increased in price. Mayonnaise has gone up (20% during the pandemic, another 20% since the invasion). I’m doing fine, but some of my neighbors are struggling.
The slide on Ukrainian thoughts is very heartening. Even with surveys just being a snapshot in time, the resilience of the Ukrainians is amazing. Before the war everyone talked about their corruption and of Russia's might. Not saying those and other things don't exist...but to stand up and continue fighting after 6 months of an all-out invasion and the massacres, against a vastly larger military, one that rightfully or not was considered 2 or 3 in the world....is incredible. These people's fight for freedom is a great inspiration to myself and others. I thank you for your well-thought and insightful words, as well as your magical ability to make anyone voluntarily watch a 1.5 hr PowerPoint.
I would like even more of his PowerPoint presentations, so he is definitely doing something right. He made a really good point about the EU support, and the fact that the USA is not really impacted by the Russian energy actions. Even if the majority of the EU turns much more lukewarm, the key is "will the US and Poland continue support for Ukraine?"
@@jloiben12 I think Ukraine should sell Safari Tickets for hobbyists drone pilots, so that every hunting an drone enthusiast could make his trophies from a relatively safe distance. It's all about huntsmenship.
Ok I'm rewatching this for the second time on the 9th of September and I can't help but be amused at Perun's lead in: "This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement". Quite intense what five days can change. Let's pray Ukraine keeps up the momentum.
Ukraine had strategic surprise there, so Private Conscriptovich ran away. They are doing marvelous things around Kherson, and for far less cost than the Russians, but it's still measured in hundreds of meters per push.
""This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement"." ... and most of the wars for most of the time are like that. Even the WW2 lots of the time were spent with semi-stable front lines. Logistics ... fast moving forces need lots fuel, ammo, food, vehicles/weapons break ... sooner or later the supply lines stretch too thin ...
Both kings and generals and perun are neckbeard gamers with heavy western bias. Pat each other on the back and say everything is fine lmfao. Freaking idiots that will be crying in the next 6 months when winter hits.
The reason for the 'no-fly zone' support is due to the fact that overwhelming majority of Americans have no idea what enforcing a no-fly zone actually entails. They think it's a magical declaration whereby no Russian aircraft or missiles suddenly are capable of penetrating Ukraine airspace. If you change the phrasing to something like, "Do you support using US aircraft to fly combat missions to engage targets in contested airspace over Ukraine", I would guess support would plummet dramatically.
Yep, I just got to that part and had to scroll the comments to see if anyone else said this. It's weird that we have that perception of NFZs as something passive when they're the exact opposite.
Actually, I don’t think if you put it like that the results would be all that different. When you add in that such a policy would require suppression of air defence systems on Russian territory (which it would), well, that would make things much trickier in terms of public support.
@@JohnnyAmerique you're all missing the point. The language changes nothing about the actual proposal, and therefore if you complicate the language with confusing words like suppression and 'combat missions in contested airspace' you'll probably just encourage the fools. Just say it how it is "do you support the US joining the war against Russia in Ukraine?" Because that's what it is. Don't confuse people, state it how it is. Sure it may start as a 'no-fly zone' but it would end as WWIII by the end of that trading day.
As an American Army vet, I would give Ukraine the equipment she needs to win for two reasons... First, Russia INVADED Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting to stay Ukraine and who doesn't like an underdog? I would hope that Europe would come to the aid of America if we were invaded by a foreign power and so I agree with giving Ukraine the means to resist Russia. Second, IF we (NATO) give Ukraine the means to destroy the Russian Army, that means that US soldiers won't have to fight Russia in the Baltic or Poland later on. I 100% support my NATO partners (they certainly supported the US), but the fight is ALREADY occurring in Ukraine, so let's give Ukraine the means to win and spare the World a larger war later on.
Kind of hard if Russia decided to used nukes and force both the Ukraine and West to stop provoking/attacking them. Very hard to call it a win for anyone if we all go back to the stone age level. And I am afraid that if Russia is pushed enough they will resort to that, even if in limited use.
@@2SSSR2 Putin does not control the nukes, the Army does. Said Army is well aware that if they start the Americans will finish the job and obliterate Russia.
A silver lining to this whole war is the increased cooperation between EU countries. It will be interesting how this will shape EU in the decades to come. Hopefully UA will have the opportunity to join too after the war.
The degraded effects of Russian propaganda and other influence efforts too. Unsurprisingly, once the war started and Russia started getting sanctioned and deplatformed there was a noticeable drop in things like antivax disinformation and pro-conservative influence campaigns in the US/UK/France/Etc.
With the momentum from COVID, the tightening cooperation on climate change and now this war... I'm carefully optimistic. If nothing else, Poland and Hungary's support of each other seems to have weakened, giving the EU as a whole more room to move.
@@marcusalm7350 I don't know about this. The war if anything has been humiliating for the EU and especially Germany's strategy of economic interdependence. Not only did it not work in stopping Russia, but they've made themselves dependent ON Russia which is a catastrophic failure. Many in the EU still have their heads in the sand about this and secretly hope Ukraine just gives up so they can go back to trading with Russia.
@@jgw9990 Thats just the internet narrative, which frankly is ever further away from reality. Like seriously, how does that even make sense, have you looked at any EU country that isnt Germany? Germanys reliance on russian imports was at or even below the european average. In a naive manner speaking, that implies half the EU countries buy less of their gas from russia, while the other half buys more. How come you dont talk about the half that was more dependant on Russia than Germany? You know, starting with little unknowns like Poland. The countries whining about german-russian dependance the loudest were the most dependant on Russia themselves. And some people just seem incapable to work out that contradiction and hypocrisy. Even the idea that "interdependence" was just a german strategy is pretty absurd, if you consider eg Czechia delivered and maintained important mining and harvesting machines to Russia. Central and eastern europe buy ressources from Russia, and sell machinery and expertise back, thats how it went.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch, the real test comes this winter. Small businesses and industrial companies throughout Europe will struggle to make a profit due to high energy bills, some may temporarily close.
As a german who was bombarded with the "well all freeze to death" mainstream media bs id love to see a presentation on how Europe dealt with the energy war
Thank you once again for a complete and detailed analysis of subjects rarely covered by the MSM. When my 98 year old mum asks me "what good is the internet?", you are one of the producers I cite. Without you and platforms like TH-cam, we'd simply not get this level of coverage.
Wow. Just wow. I ran across a mention of your channel today in a randomly suggested channel's reply in their comments section; thank the cosmos for my luck. As a retired economic analyst, thank you doesn't cover the joy of listening to your excellent, thorough and we'll spoken report. Subscribed. May all that is wonderful, peaceful and nourishing find its way to you and yours.
Welcome to the Perunian community! His channel has been growing so fast since he started doing videos on the Russian invasion that he is giving the Ukrainian recruitment offices a run for their money! 😁 Anyway, enjoy the hours upon hours of excellent analysis in his videos and don't forget to eat and drink and take a break every few hours :)
We are very grateful for all the support in Ukraine(especially you Americans, your country is truly a beast). Personally, I also think that for the west it is more about not being anyone's bitch and less about love for Ukraine. I am sure EU will solve energy problems because you have dealt with a lot worse through the history and still became who you are today. With love, 💙💛
Yes, but, never underestimate the esteem that was created the very courageous and united response of the Ukrainian people and military early in the war. It was impossible not to be moved by Zelensky’s “we are here” address at night from Kiev. This is also a major factor among the people who are interested enough to watch this channel.
Speaking as an American, we are definitely about not being someone's bitch, but... And this "but" is very important to understand. Many of us are in awe of you guys. It's clear that you're fighting for your freedom which is something that resonates with most of us very strongly. Speaking for myself, the only band I've seen since Covid was Jinjer (a Ukrainian band) not long before the war began. My concern for them made the war more personal. So, I've watched the war unfold on TH-cam. I've been impressed with the incredible bravery of Zelenskyy, the amazing willpower and love of freedom of the Ukrainian people, the inspiring compassion of the Polish, and the absolute depravity of the russian troops in Bucha and elsewhere. Then there's Grandpa Savkovych who is so much like so many of the grandparents that I've known. Through it all, I've come to hold Ukraine and it's people in high regard, and I know the same is true for other Americans whom I've talked to about the war. I'd never really held russia in particularly high regard, but now my opinion of that country is very very poor. Ukraine was not on the list of countries that I'd someday hoped to visit, but it absolutely is now.
what Kevin said... Though I'll add, continued support from a country's people vs support from a government are motivated differently. After US experiences in central Asia, expending insane wealth on civilizations that would/could not fight for their culture, the experience with Ukraine is inspiring. It has been eye opening to see how much we have in common with Ukraine, looking forward to helping you rebuild
You're wrong about it not being love for Ukraine. We have our own gruesome history with a maniac tyrant committing genocide on a harrowing scale. And it was a great sorrow to us that the only way we could get rid of him was to "sell out" all the non-Russian countries that ended up in the USSR. WWII didn't truly end until the 26th of December 1991.... And that insane KGB agent is not going to get away with rebooting it! So while I didn't have much personal love for Ukraine (mostly out of ignorance, really), prior to all this, I have deep personal love for freedom, democracy and human rights. And when that arsehole tried to take that away from you, that same love instantly got transfered to every Ukrainian. I'm a former artilleryman of the Danish army. Two tours to ex-Yugoslavia and one to Afghanistan. If I wasn't an army write-off due to PTSD I would have been in Ukraine right now, fighting in the International Brigade. I have seen with my own eyes what it does when people have their lives destroyed by fanatic lunatics. I cried my eyes out when I heard the civilian death toll in Mariupol.... I would have died with my boots on, if that could have saved just ten of the 87,000. Putin is a genocidal maniac, and anyone who's up against someone like him instantly gets all my love. Even if I didn't know much about them just a few days before. I hope that clears up how at least I feel about it. Our governments may be trying to navigate this shitty situation the best they can, but from what I hear from "regular people" the compassion for Ukraine is real. At least in Denmark.
Just think, if Putin never started this war, the rest of the World would still believe that the Russian military was about the 2nd or 3rd most powerful. So much for the _Russia Stroink_ memes.
I hope we don't need to find out if the PLA is a paper dragon or not. Same situation, similar dynamics, I hope the blood doesn't need to be shed to find out.
To paraphrase a famous saying, sometimes it's beter to keep rattling a saber and look like a major, though waning, military power than to actually start a war and remove all doubt
As an American, the tribal political landscape of my country is...exhausting. Trying to have real discussions with political opponents is infuriatingly difficult.
the problem is you cant really ignore it for more than half a second or else you missed the events reinstalling slavery in the county of E from act 69420 of the Ohio Supreme Council of MAGAcratic party
Your analysis is OUTSTANDING. There is no other source I respect more. I can't compliment you enough. Please keep up the good work you do. You may look back upon your life, when you get old, at this point in time was the high point of your career, and I would think that you would be very proud of what you have done. I certainly think so.
Europe has truly achieved something exceptional. Before this crisis I wouldn't believe that a continent of people will be willing to suffer a cold winter and economic recession, for the benefit of one nation. And don't get me wrong, not all Europeans are willing. But most are, and that is good enough.
It's not just for Ukraine's benefit. Across Europe there is the sudden realisation that we have to get away from russian energy reliance, as a long term strategy. Europeans are doing it for Ukraine's benefit and for their own benefit.
People are suffering and want something done about it, but in my country (the Netherlands, I can't comment on others) no one's talking about forcing Ukraine getting a peace deal to push down the energy prices. No one's talking about abandoning Ukraine, people are still in full support of Ukraine. What people talk about is increase of income and the government softening the blow of the energy crisis by for example lower taxes of extra financial support for the lower incomes. We've known for years being dependent on Russian gas is a huge risk, the war has shown how horrible they act and how overblown our concerns were for the might of their army (the main reason why so many people used to oppose a possible Ukrainian EU-membership, was the possibility of a war with Russia. Ironically, this war has actually convinced a majority of the population to support EU-membership for Ukraine). What Russia fails to understand is that people in a free country who've been used to mind their own business for generations do not appreciate being black mailed by a dictatorship. They'll look and find ways to get out of the black mail so they can tell them to shove it up their darkest parts of their body. We are in pain now, but Russia can pull this card only once and Russia will get very dark when Europe becomes effectively independent of Russian fossil fuels. Considering how fast it all develops, I wouldn't be surprised if we achieve that next year.
That's not surprising. Ukraine began as some misfits from the Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth. And just because you've been wiped off the map twice, that don't mean tou can't be a good friend. If it wasn't for good friends, you wouldn't even exist. So there are a lot of connections there
With a bit of history this Polish support can be seen as heartwarming. Because in the aftermath of the peace negotiations of Polish Soviet War in 1921 Poland effectively abandoned its support for Ukraine against the Soviets. Now 101 years later. Poland is effectively saying to Ukraine "I am not going to abandon you again"
Honestly, I’d be willing to sit through 90 minutes of administrative nonsense on natural gas price structuring. The Economist is my favorite newspaper and I love this stuff. I understand the algorithm may not be as big a fucking nerd, but suffice to say you seem to be capable of making any sort of analysis captivating to a general audience. Thanks again for all your work on this channel.
Thank you for your analysis and coverage of the war. As a regular citizen of Kyiv, Ukraine - none of your videos contradicted the way we see things here in Ukraine, and I like to learn more understanding of the international situation through your great videos.
@@sstff6771 Thank you for your support. I am fine, though I miss my wife and little daughters very much, but feel lucky that they are in relative safety in Europe now. As much as it was devastating when russia started the invasion, and all the horrors that it brought - maybe even more so we were overwhelmed by such a huge support and kind help from good people all over the world. It does give us so much strength to continue our stand with hopes to expel the invaders one day and start rebuilding our cities. Never did we felt like a welcomed part of global community as we do now, and hope after all of this ends - we will gladly contribute to some good sings, like science, space exploration, art, beating hunger, anything to make this world just a little bit better place.
Best wishes from Poland and UK. Ukraine has a great future to look forward to: great things coming after the war including massive rebuilding package, being able to pick and choose alliances - might I take this opportunity to advocate for Intermarium 😀 - EU accession or close alliance, NATO - full membership or de facto membership as Japan). Please convey best wishes to everyone there. You guys already changed history defending Kyiv and you are continuing to make history. And you are an inspiration for people abroad. Polish society is (obviously) greatly supportive, but also watching very carefully while building a strong army of our own (5% budget for military, revival of interest in geopolitics and everything military and lots of public debate, many private individuals are going to shooting ranges, housewives watching expert military analysis of the recent offensive, grandmas in grocery stores discussing the merits and weaknesses of military equipment we are buying [overheard] etc.). It would be great to smooth out some historical matters (so that infrequent now but hurt voices calm) and continue building a strong region, so that WE ensure that no more atrocities will happen.
Seeing EU as a whole taking swift and decisive political and dimplomatic undertaking is something I was not expecting, yet I'm weirdly proud it's happening
.....and you should be. I wasn't expecting it either. Now I've also learned that the EU is the same as the UE; hadn't heard of the UE before, guess it's because I'm an English speaker
1:11:33 "Although someone should tell them that BVR engagement footage isn't exactly riveting to watch" As an avid DCS player you take that back, sir! I find the little blip having a decent rate exceeding 20k ft/min on my radar screen, with the possibility of seeing a very distant black smoke trail, and if I'm very lucky a small fireball in the distance, extremely riveting, thank you!
I don't consider myself a patriotic person, but seeing how the EU as a whole has reacted to the war in Ukraine makes me feel warm. It is good to see the EU live up to the ideals it was founded on. For as much as we like complaining about our neighbours, when it comes down to it we all stand behind the ideas of peace, cooperation, and shared burdens.
You can thank the British, the Poles and other Eastern nations in Europe...The main players Germany and France have tried multiple times to weedle out of helping and the EU has simply been dragged along by events.
Perun: "And we cannot underestimate the importance of the political offensive, especially on social media." Me, out loud, to no one: "MEMES, THE DNA OF THE SOUL"
If anyone is wondering why EU support in the Netherlands has dropped, this has mostly to do with a current nitrogen crisis we are having. Which is unrelated to the war in Ukraine but is still a large political issue in the Netherlands.
We don't have enough fertilizer because Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer in the world and we can't buy it from Russia because of the sanctions. So it's not unrelated to ukraine
Thanks for info, totally forgot about that. But it was important issue and show how the so called operation( WAR ) backfire to Russia and what wanted to achieve. I mean its in worse satiation and lost a lot of credibility as world power .
You mean the ignored referendums that said hell no to the EU? Or the fact that we squander the Groningen gas? Or that the prime minister is a pathological lier? There are so many reasons for the current political unrest in the Netherlands, Ukraine is just icing on the cake.
@@Shadow25720 Except this crisis is not about a lack of fertilizer, but rather the government on the way to take drastic matters to reduce nitrogen emissions in natural reserves. So not all related to that.
I like videos very rarely to be honest. Even fewer is the number of channels where I like the video before even watching it because I`ve never before been disappointed by the quality. Precisely 2 channels total in fact. Yours is one of them.
@@teresabenson3385 Nothing to do with politics or economyy though I'll look the channel you said up. Its SsethTzeentach. Yeah, its a special kind of humour.
Poland being tied for the second largest drop in positive opinion of Russia when their original opinion of Russia had already cratered is hilarious lmao
Pole here. You have no idea how divided my country is on everything right now... except on the Russian invasion. The fringe pro-Russian voices are ratioed into oblivion from left, right and center alike. Voices like "You are a fascist troll and I have zero respect for you, but on this you are right - F*** RUSSIA!" are quite common. What a weird moment.
@@HanSolo__ Honestly, even if it's all genuine, it's still basically meaningless; as a point of comparison, in 2021, 5% of Americans surveyed had a favorable opinion of *Kim Jong-Un*.
Fantastic report! As an ukrainian myself i cannot say how much i appreciate the work the you are doing. Looking forward to military analysis of the 6 month war
Stay strong brother! In Denmark the willingness to help Ukraine, and give Russia every whack with the clue stick we can, is greater than what our politicians are pulling off. And they're being asked hard questions about it constantly. One thing they did, however, was tell the EU they were not onboard with the lax visa sanctions, and as of a few weeks ago Russians cannot get a travel visa or residency permit in Denmark. That helped a little bit. But they're currently being asked why the FUCK we haven't sent our F-16s to Ukraine yet. We're going to replace them all with F-35s anyway, and almost all of our F-16s are the highest-upgrade models. We have both the two-seater training model and and the regular ones. 33 in total. With the 4 F-35s we already have, we could give you 24 F-16s and still meet our NATO-readiness quota.... I hope it will happen soon!
I look forward to your videos every week over any other channel on TH-cam. Your compilation of information, video format and line of reasoning make the videos so enjoyable. Thanks for all the hard work. Keep em coming.
I don't know many other channels that can keep me engaged for even an hour, much less those that can do so for an hour twenty with what comes down to a narrated PowerPoint presentation... this is still amazing, thank you so much
I’m ashamed of our Canadian Prime Ministers unwillingness to help Europe with its energy needs. He claims that global warming is the reason, but fails to recognize that having Europe turn to our natural gas is better for the environment than turning to coal. It would also help us pay for a much quicker transition to greener energies. 🤦♂️
Hum we are? I mean not with Albertan Oil because it wouldn't be feasible to transport it from the west to the east but we are working on Hydrogen plants with Germany and selling a fuck ton of gas oil and hydro to the US. It's more a case of we can't help them much rather than we don't want to.
Sorry I can't money, but a big thank you for all your hard work in putting together this video, it's very much appreciated. It's hard watching events unfold not to get despondent, your analysis has give given me hope.
From my own irish perspective... We were never fond of the Russians, the constant military flights and submarines passing up and down our coasts in the last few years are always there to remind us that they aren't far away. A healthy dose of american and british television which all of Europe watches brings home the 'Never trust a Russian' that's in most spy thrillers since we were kids (james bond) As a member of the EU we watched the internal bickering in Brussels because we had nowhere else to focus our attention (bar the american elections). Now we do, Russia. That survey of Americans asked about a no fly zone over Ukraine was definitely conducted in the same month Top Gun was released lol. Absolutely love your videos man, keep up the great work.
Say what you will about the Soviets, they resisted S.P.E.C.T.R.E. with the exception of a rogue colonel here and there. It’s somewhat shocking to think that within ten years of the fall of the USSR, S.P.E.C.T.R.E. was able to take over the Russian government entirely. It’s good that the western democracies are waking up to the threat posed by S.P.E.C.T.R.E., even if our governments won’t officially acknowledge its existence. This is only partially a joke.
"A healthy dose of american and british television" Healthy? Just because a foreign government is your enemy, doesn't mean your own government has anything but contempt for you.
Fantastic job on this one Perun. I've watched just about all of your videos since this conflict began and I think this one ranks near the top. There are many topics to cover in the economic aspect of this war and you've managed to explore them in your own approachable yet rigorous way. Keep it up!
Russia's hopes to erode western support for Ukraine by cutting off the gas supply in what they hope will be a cold winter seems like a long shot to me. I'll admit I don't know enough of the industrial and secondary energy generating applications of natural gas to judge if that is a sound strategy or not, but if Russia's hopes rely mostly on the public turning against the sanctions in order to heat their homes, It seems like they are forgetting that they supply Europe with gas, not warm socks and blankets.
The German industry requiring natural gas is a more critical aspect, it becomes a balancing act of cutting gas use in heating/cooking/energy generation to keep the industry affected the least, and try to use alternative means of energy generation. I heard coal plants may be reactivated but I'm not sure how feasible that is in the next few months.
@@gamerfortynine Not likely to. Global warming means winters in Northern Europe are milder than they used to be. More like a prolonged autumn. Even as far north as Denmark where I live, we have nothing resembling frozen winter wonderlands anymore. Sweden and Finland and Norway might, but they are not the issue here. Can't speak for Poland and Ukraine, they might get deep frozen in the winter, but somehow I doubt it. Europe gets cold in the winter, but hardly freezing.
We are in Europe and I think that I speak for many people here who are willing to have higher energy prices if that means that we don't support a war buy-hearing out homes. We hear the need to decarbonise and de Gasify now more than ever. We will not surrender until Europe is the world's first clean continent. In Vienna, Austria energy bills rose buy 50 % and we will never pay energy prices like this again.
I am in the UK and would happily leave my gas valve off all winter and rely on blankets, I have this fear that instead the UK government is going to shell out money to anyone who asks for help with energy bills therefore increasing inflation, not resolve or help resolve the underlying issue of energy supply and then wuss out of all sanctions against Russia as soon as the voting public makes moaning noises.
The sanctions were never going to be a… one punch knockout. The sanctions we levied are a slow burn. It is a lot like what Ukraine is doing in the south. If you destroy all the ammo it doesn’t matter if the opposing military has 10x the number of artillery units because you can’t use artillery units if you have no ammo for them. The sanctions have done massive damage to Russia ability to regenerate its material. That is the key thing. They started with massive stocks. The sanctions don’t really effect that. But when they blow through their stocks and have to start making new ammo, equipment, etc, that is when the sanctions will put the screws to Russia.
you have no idea how much ammunition there is in Russia. In 2010, I was in military service and we were engaged in the disposal of ammunition. Every day, during the year, about 100 tons of shells were destroyed.
@@suphead Amount means little, what is important is not the sheer amount but how much of that ammunition is actually viable. Given the state of many of the 'stored' vehicles in Russian stockpiles I am willing to bet that much of that ammunition stockpile is more or less unusable. Just as much of the Russian stockpiled vehicles are.
@@suphead Sure. And other than AK ammo that will outlive the universe, how much of that stockpile is actually usable? We have already seen in basically every way that the stated totals of material Russia has is substantially larger than what is actually useful
Seriously, my favorite channel on all things Ukraine/Russia and military/economics in general. And far from the videos being too long , I am more than happy to luxuriate in the level of detail, it’s an absolute treat.
Beautiful, simply beautiful. Perun has a talent for dissecting and describing relatively complex issues in a way that makes them interesting and readily accessible to folks whose eyes would normally start to glaze over after ten minutes. After 81 minutes, I still feel like shouting, "Encore!".😄
Excellent analyis, thanks a lot! I think, I would speak for the vast majority of the viewers, when I ask you to keeping up the quality rather then the quantity of your videos. As much as we enjoy the frequent updates, please keep your main focus on the exceptional quality.
The war chest thing is as much of a cultural thing as preparation for war. It's legacy from soviet times where everyone was saving up for rainy day in Sberkassa, yet when USSR fell almost everyone left with "broken washtub", as we say
That money could have been used to improve the life of the russian people. For that alone they should have taken to the streets in protest. Think of how much better the hospitals would have been (they're a disaster), or the schools, or the infrastructure (roads, railways, sewage, water treatment, etc), especially in rural areas where the majority don't even have indoor plumbing. But no, war, war, war. Because imperialistic expansion is more important than the people. That kind of small-brain thinking really irks me.
@@zdspider6778 It's especially aggravating to think about, when you realized that Putin could have achieved his political goals (a sort of USSR 2.0) much, much easier, if he had simply invested all that money in Russian infrastructure and raising the quality of life for the ordinary Russian, and creating a modern, well-functioning state. This would have given all the old USSR member states something to look up to, and aspire to become a part of. Instead, he has thrown it all away.
This is one of your best presentations yet. Important data with context on a broad range of issues. Thanks for the perspective that helps cut through the disjointed snippets we get daily.
As a fellow Croat who commonly used "Perun" as a nickname and sign, it will never not bother me that you used it and became *the* Perun. Jokes aside, great video as always, keep it up.
My grandmother had the misfortune of having her heat pump fail last winter. This wouldn't have been an issue if it weren't for the component shortage leading to it taking months for her order of a replacement to be completed. To keep her very large home liveable, she used resistive electric heating, so her electric bills were insane.
Best analyst channel anywhere. If this is your day job. They need to give you a raise. Your government should pay you well and give you resources human and equipment.
The US, UK, Canada, and Australia are not dependent on Russian energy. Poland and some of the other Baltic states are additionally likely to support Ukraine no matter what that means for their energy supplies. So you’re right, there’s no scenario where Russian energy policy could entirely end military support to Ukraine.
@@snikrepak Canada is the third-largest producer of uranium in the world, and has reduced its production as demand has dropped (as nuclear reactors have shut down in many parts of the world). Canada has the ability to increase production. So I stand by my statement that the countries I listed are not dependent on Russian energy. I believe you have conflated a willingness to buy Russian energy in the past, with a dependence on it. You have failed to establish a necessity for the U.S. to buy Russian uranium, and the fact that Canada is a reliably ally of the U.S. and has uranium to spare would seem to debunk your assertion.
Well, from here in the UK I can tell you we are very exposed to the global gas market price. We might not import much from Russia, but we buy on the same market as Germany and other European countries who do use a lot of Russian gas. Still, people here aren't keen on helping Russia win its war.
@@pault1289 Oh, for sure. Every country is affected by significant swings in oil and gas prices. I don't use any oil or gas (everything at home is electric, including heat and hot water, and my main transportation is an e-bike), but even I'm affected by it as I nonetheless buy products that get delivered to stores by gasoline-powered trucks, etc. But it's at least not making a difference to whether we can keep the heat on this winter, you know?
Well, I'm only one individual, so I can't speak for all of Europe, but if there's _one_ thing I hate then it is someone telling me what I can and cannot do. Which is exactly what Putin tries to do right now, at the international level. As you can imagine, that doesn't win him any sympathy points from me ... So, anything _but_ what Russia wants is exactly the thing we should do. Also, fantastic presentation! Thanks so much.
@@peterhumphrys thanks for reply 😍 we,LL agree to disagree, but I do miss RT, I watched it for yrs , but I can't be arsed now, to go on to Odysee for it, Best wishes 🥳
32:50 I love how you give this important topic the respect and thought it deserves. you are amazing at analyzing incredibly complex aspects of this war, and your personal experience brings a unique perspective and skill set. But you never forget that behind the numbers and headlines, real humans are suffering, struggling, and dying
Thanks for your video, I always look forward to seeing your really good argumentation and logic on interesting matters regarding the Russian invasion war.
It is fascinating how, when I saw a new video from you pop up, my reaction was "Oh boy, oh boy oh boy"! I have no idea why but I always look forward to your content, please keep up the good work. Time to make some coffee and watch :)
Denmark closed down its gas production for some time for maintaining the infrastructure. While stoping expansions of new fields to limit the climate crisis. But do to the war the reopening date have been pushed forward to spring 2023 I believe. Also, we have, with Poland, opened a pipeline securing a huge boost in capacity for Norwegian gas getting exported to Denmark, and especially Poland, it will even help Germany out. At the same time we have removed laws that made it harder to build Land-based windmills. In the longer perspective we are with Germany, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic nations started a project of sea based giant windmills in the Baltic Sea close to the Danish island of Bornholm that will output more energy then what already are in all of the area. I supplying enough energy for 30.000.000 households I believe it were. At the same time a Danish company, that Bill Gates climate fund just invested a lot in, are making a more efficient way to transform the electricity to hydrogen and back it to electricity when needed. There are an other Danish project making it possible to transform the hydrogen in to methane efficiently there by allowing it to be stored, transported and used instead of the current natural gas. Also we have in years worked to isolate buildings better, there have been big tax deductions to those who have done so. Also a lot of houses have changed to heat pumps that can use electricity to heat up houses extremely efficiently.
Denmark is mostly isolated from the worst effects of the energy crisis since we have one of the biggest renewable sectors in Europe and most heating is supplied through district heating and the rest is mostly electric. District heating is so efficient that even rising energy prices barely affects it, my heating bill has not changed one bit throughout all of this. The only area of the Danish economy that's being hit is industry that uses gas and while that's significant Denmark also is mostly a service sector economy so it's not the worst compared to especially Eastern Europe. And of course the prospective profits to be made from wind energy in the Baltic and North Sea are massive so Denmark stands to come out of this as basically a wind energy Norway.
@@hedgehog3180 arh still 13 % of the residents use gas for heating and some central heating grids are powered by gas but has an easier time converting. My gas bill has almost trippled. Luckily I can afford that but some can't. Furthermore, our food industry is quite reliant on gas, but they should be able to change easily to oil burners. They mostly complain until the last minute in hopes of getting government aid for the change and to get the government to remove environmental tariffs on the oil before changing.
Hi Perun, I live in Groningen and the will to sacrifice our homes'integrity to help Ukraine and make us less subordinate to Russia is at an all time high, and the Groningen People are historically very stoic and stubborn. so if we decide to sit this out for the greater good we will do so much longer than most people around us would, just as we have endured these earthquakes for much longer as we should have. just wanted to share this little bit about my home area
The world supports Ukraine. I admire stoicism and stubbornness in the face of coercion. Go Groningen! There are few moments of moral clarity, this is one.
The price of the ruble is not so significant. 40 years ago the ruble was officially sold for 1 dollar. Of course, you couldn't go to a bank and buy dollar for your rubles - you had to go to the black market where the exchange rate was "somewhat" different... :) Also, if you stabilize the exchange rate of your currency by FORBIDDING actors to sell it for not Mickey Mouse currencies, that may look like a real solution, but ask any economist ( or anyone for brains, for that matter) on how long term that solution is likely to be. :) Stopping supplying key statistical indicators is a VERY strong sign they are falsifying statistics, so no need to apologize for not believing all Russian government figures. Sonnenfeld says they stopped supplying some statistics even the communist state was providing all the time... :D
Yes, it was a long one - but I was still disappointed when it ended! Thanks yet again for producing these videos, there is nothing like it anywhere else. You are providing a vital resource.
My absolute favorite TH-cam channel when it comes to covering the war delivered yet again and at a time when I really needed it. Thank you so much for such a comprehensive review of topics at hand, this one video in particular sounds like it's been an enormous amount of work. As a Ukrainian, sometimes I go all doom and gloom because of seeing just how much russian propaganda, bots or people who have lost their way are out there, sometime I start to hesitate whether Europe or the US are gonna stand with us for as long as needed. I worry about how this winter is gonna go, how the public opinion is going to be affected. And I usually know things are not looking grim, but sometimes all the garbage you can see and read online can really wear your confidence down. But this video does such a great job at giving an overview on how things are looking on the energy, economic and public opinion front and it's good to see that despite all the shit I'm seeing and reading, all the wrong takes and opinions, that the world still stands strongly with us and there's no sign of that suddenly changing anytime soon. This made my day. Thank you, Perun.
Love the vids. I never thought I'd be watching videos on the economic side of military conflicts, I usually prefer to see things BOOM. You do a fantastic job of breaking things down for knuckle draggers like myself. FYI, don't worry about 1 hour plus long videos(provided you're up for the extra work). I would guess the majority of viewers clicking your video thumbnails are willing to take the extra time for an insightful video on topics either not covered or only having the surface scratched by other youtube channels and the media. Looking forward to next the vid so you can drop some more bombs of knowledge on us.
This video really is a response to the many requests I got for a six month update - though given the current battlefield developments I thought it better to focus on economics and politics rather than the military campaign in this video:
I'd also like to say thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun
A few caveats here because I couldn't fit them in the description:
1)NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO IS FINANCIAL ADVICE
2) Economic projections are obviously prone to significant uncertainty
3) I really don't want to be accused of cherry picking data - but unfortunately when talking about energy markets it's hard to nail down hard values. Take the discount on Russian Ural crude for example. The Yale paper cites $35 a barrel as the discount rate and we have examples of that - but the current spot price is closer to $20 a barrel, but we also have claims countries are saying no to contracts at $30 a barrel on longer terms. In essence, it's hard to say definitively what the discount is and next to impossible to say what it will be. We know Gazprom profits are up, dividends may be restored, but shares were heavily down, volumes are at risk, and Ural crude is massively discounted. There are plenty of examples like this where you have a huge choice of data available, and I wanted to call that out.
4) I also want to note I misspeak a few times (including once when talking about who and who isn't dependent on pipelines but I think those examples are obvious in context).
5)I also say one Russian official is 'high up in the Russian government' which is relatively meaningless as a statement - I should just have said Russian official.
6) Regarding survey data, it's always worthwhile checking methodology and source, including error margin and sample size. Links to many of the ones used in this presentation have been provided.
7) I also want to stress that, regardless of tone, I do deeply sympathise with those in nations like Hungary and Romania who feel the need to put price stability first. This war (and the associated energy crisis) are an incredible tragedy, and there is clearly a need for the EU and national Governments to work harder to protect vulnerable people from the impacts.
reddragonrising.blogspot.com/2022/09/blood-purges-doom-russian-regime.html
Ukraine will win.
Winter is coming.
Small nitpick but the segments the video is broken up into in the progress bar are too small to be of much use. Larger generalised sections by topic would be better.
@@williamdieffenbach3264 Ukraine is an American hegemonic puppet
Perun ,your parents are from croatia ? Havent expected for you to point out Croatias increased approval of EU.
@@williamdieffenbach3264 Blood purges doom the criminal regime in moscow. 8 Gazprom executives "comitted suicide", half a dozen politicos like Dugina also had "accidents" dozens of dead Generals since 2008 half a dozen billionnaire oligarchs also "fell gravely ill and perished" cancers, heart attacks, bullets, lots of ways to fall out of a window in Russia. It's going to be like 1937...
Ahh yes, what is better than a 60 minute lecture on defense economics? Obviously an 80 minute lecture on defense economics.
Jokes aside, never worry about a video being too long.
Yup, in agreement here, when it's this well put together the time actually flies by.
I fully agree. I'm not very economically literate when it comes to military things and enjoy the education I'm getting from these videos.
Another agreement here, sir. The longer the better ("that's what she said").
Much appreciated - though I do feel like 60 minutes is more comfortable for many people than 80. I'll try to cut down unless a topic really merits the time (and I feel this one did)
@@PerunAU You worry for nothing 80 min is fine. :)
Don't ever worry about a presentation being too long! This was excellent, but left me wanting more
Yea fuck less is more.
Word, when do we go to twice a week?
@@mightymo-ij9pz i prefer quality over quantity, keep up good videos perun
I mean I watch kraut videos I don’t think too long exists
The people are hungry for in depth analysis. Most media is straight trash
I'm in Poland. One thing I noticed in Warsaw since war started is that people in general are much more friendly to foreign people (except Russians I believe).
It has been said that Russian war mongering is the best thing to happen for European cooperation.
Well with their history with Russia over the last couple of hundred years why would they. Very strong support of Ukraine
to hungarians too?
Nah still racist
Even Germans? PIS is pushing the Germanophobia hard again.
I was an officer in General Staff of Croatian Armed Forces in late 1990 early 2000. All what you are doing with these analyses, that is closest to the real work that we were doing in those times in MoD and General Staff than anything I have seen on TH-cam so far. How you put all this together is fantastic. Great work! Respect! Regarding the war itself, Slava Ukraini!
It's sad to see your Serbian brothers, love Putin and Russia more than their own mother.
@@meekmeads Well, I cannot speak for them and tell you why they become like they are now. After 1991 we in Croatia do not consider them as brothers anymore. If we can speak so, we are considering them as relatives, but one that are becoming more distant as the time is passing. In present days their “brothers” are Russians. And Russians will help them to “de-nazified” Croatia, right after completion of that Ukrainian project they are dealing with…. That is what most of their commentators are talking about. Of course, not all of them, but that is main accent. Unfortunately.
@@meekmeads Serbs dont love Russia its just relationship that actually brings food to the table. But romantic part of it kinda takes over in these kind of conversations....untill trade snaps as anywhere. Politics and ordinary people opinion is not something that always go together. One is pure pragmatic aproach other is just propaganda washed up people, thats all that people opinion really is. Demonising Russia or China or any other power is stupid. Because when you start really researching why Russia is not part of EU aswer pops up verry fast. Its simple. Russia is too big. Its exactly the same why Serbs were hated in Yugoslavia. They were just too many, too strong of a nation in comparisment to others who felt threatened for a reason. Thats just root of all politics between 2 countries, 2 ethnicities, 2 nations, 2 armies, 2 organisations or 2 men. Add a multiple and nature of it doasnt change it just complicates but stays the same.
As far as I understood from previous videos, Perun actually does work for Australian government in a similar kind of a capacity.
@@dariogifc0 I admit that I don't get that. But in any way in all those analysis he is managing to describe how complex any war is and how deep consequences it is producing not jus for parties in war. From the name of the site, Perun is acinen Slavic equivalent of Thor, I understand that he is of Slavic origin and I think he said that he is related to Croatia.
because it's been 6 months I've almost forgotten how fucking stupid a decision it was by Putin to invade in the first place
Indeed... Still, all the lives on both sides that don't have a vote in this being snuffed out is pretty damn sad.
Putin the dude who held Russia together? Is still holding Russia together. If nothing else hes captured the international stage.
Dont worry russia will do its final ultra mega pincer attack by 2075 and encircle kiev, overthrowing a now happily retired Zelensky! See? Russia will win eventually!
Pragmatically speaking, if Russia did a full scale coup and invasion during the 2014 Maidan revolution they could have swept up the entirety of Ukraine. By locking the Ukrainians in a brutal proxy-war in the Donbass following the annexation of Crimea, the Russian subjected themselves to a desperate situation with little to no gain (both in military, political, and economic leverage).
@Ebbe B If you have not seen them already, I highly recommend the videos of Vlad Vexler on TH-cam. He is a Soviet-born political philosopher now living in the UK who has been following the Putin regime since its beginning.
According to him, the true reason for Putin starting the war was desperation to prevent loss of power; he needed legal justification to consolidate power in the Kremlin and a ‘special military operation’ enabled him to do so.
"Reality doesn't bend to your bullshit."
I'm gonna have to write that down. Love it 👍
In this particular episode I found myself laughing out loud quite the number of times.
Now if only the "press" could understand that. But sadly most news outlets look to themselves as Hollywood Stars instead of teachers.
The Aussies have a way with words.
Indeed, I loved this one!
LOL I know right, just like at 1:11:12 "...it's apparently time to shoot down some Ruskies".
"The victor is not victorious if the vanquished does not consider himself so" It is the will and strength of the Ukrainians to resist that will win the day.
Did somebody watch OverSimplified recently?
@@27suf They did 😂 but someone also has a Master's in Ancient History so for once it felt useful.
@@arthriticgamer3484 Also: “An insurgency that can maintain a stalemate and survive is winning.”
I think you hit the nail on the head with that quote in respect to why the Ukrainian government has imposed a news blackout on the Kherson offensive. Don't get me wrong, my wife of 24 years is Ukrainian, and from the Kherson area (and her twin sister lived in Kherson until she evacuated to Kyiv around June 1). Ukraine is suffering heavy losses, much to be expected due to the switch to offensive rather than defensive operations. Russia reinforced the Kherson pocket (really, that's what it is with the bridges down) with some of their best remaining troops (in particular airborne units) that are neither breaking or surrendering. The Russians however are stretched to the limits and are being forced to using air power to try and block Ukrainian break outs. Currently some small units of Russian troops are essentially surrounded and really must think of either fighting their way out if possible, or surrendering. Logistics wins wars, and any troops cut off from supplies has a very limited life expectancy. Right now the question is can Ukraine sustain the losses long enough to break Russian resistance. The news blackout makes this much more likely, and in the next two or three weeks the battle will be decided. In October, Ukraine will start seeing fresh troops trained in the UK arriving, and they are rested, trained and fresh. Russia needs to get supplies across the river in substantial quantities before then, as well as fresh troops. The next three weeks are as critical as the battle for Kyiv, and Russia is very slowly losing.
@@richardgray3112 Russia does understand that using nukes is essentially a surrender and admission of defeat. Ukraine still has nuclear reactors, and dirty bombs are a thing when delivered to the center of Moscow. Don't bet on Russia using nukes unless Ukraine crosses the border into Russia.
"Because it's Poland and the other guy is russia, what do you expect"
Love from Poland
Long live Poland and the Polish people!
Love from the US
As a Brit, I'd rather endure a hard winter and a recession than be dictated to by Putin and abandon Ukraine. And I'm very far from wealthy. Some things are more important than economic comfort
So how well does GCHQ pay these days?
Same
Fuck that 😂😂😂 what is wrong with you
Exactly.
Maybe rich people sell out first. Oddly, rich people care about money more than poor folks and they have lots more.
My favorite recent Russian Bot talking point:
Russia takes a month to take one block of Severodonetsk: "Russia's advance is breathtakingly fast and unstoppable, and Ukraine will inevitably crumble in another month!"
The SAME DAY Ukraine announces it is trying to reclaim a territory Russia has seized: "The Ukrainian offensive has already failed! Ignore all those reports of panicked Russian defenders with no supplies!"
Its funniest part of that is when Ukraine takes miles of territory in a day its somehow an example of failure. Its entirely possible and reasonable the Ukrainian offensive will grind to a halt eventually but trying to have a conversation with a bot is entirely futile. People can only express opinions via memes now.
What do expect from paid bots? They are already elated at their soldiers barely holding some captured villages against Ukrainians. Not NATO, US or even Poland. Against Ukraine.
"Western economies will collapse under inflation and high energy prices"
"You will run out of baby formula"
... baby formula, I can do without. But had they said we would run out of toilet paper ... again ... then I'd imagine bidet prices would go up ... again.
Yeah, umm, about those "reports". Russian soldiers were running out of water, food and ammo 3 days into the war. So yeah, best ignore propaganda disguised as reports.
Yeah, posted some ridiculous numbers like "4000 dead! 90 tanks lost! 60 APCs!" Sure, maybe add some HIMARS there? Maybe a carrier group too since we're daydreaming anyway.
It's so nice to watch a TH-cam channel that's actually smart and considered, and where even the comments are civil and discussions are healthy. It's very rare to find a channel like this when the vast majority of the channels on this site are just sensationalist, hyperbolic and toxic. Well done Perun mate. You're doing Australia proud. This website needs more mature channels like this aimed at people who think. Also worth noting that Australia's first shipment of LNG has reached the UK with more to come. I really hope we can help Europe out more. Australia is a very reliable trade partner and I hope Brussels remembers this when negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement between us and the EU resume. It would give the EU much better access to our resources, and especially rare earths as we are now trying to break China's monopoly on them.
I also like that he does a great service to us in the comments section by removing stuff like all the whatsapp crypto scammer bots.
I wonder if he’s aware of all the other TH-cam bots that post links to other videos saying “finally its here” or something. Those bots tend to clutter up the comments section to unreadability.
All is mature and civil until you start searching comments by newest
@@dba2k15 dissent frowned upon?
@@jessejameskaine no, the English-speaking Pro-Russian commenters come in after we do.
All the Bots probably don't get past the 5 Minute Mark before getting bored and haunting some other YT channel.
Perun: "This is no war of rapid advances and encirclement. This is a war where advanced are measured in the tens or hundreds of metres".
Ukraine: "Hold my vodka "
Hold my *horilka.
His summary of the military situation didn’t age well…
*Horilka
just goes to show how well disguised the Ukrainian counter offensive was. Stunning and heartwarming.
@@allangibson8494
“Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
I'm a retired US Army infantry officer. You're video a analysis is on-point and very well-considered and nuanced. Great job time after time in a fluid situation. I'll have to join your Patreon.
Some cannot afford to pay but subscribe, like and comment. Internet is very expensive in Canada. Whenever you post I drop everything to watch. Keep it up and can you do a campaign of Command Carrier 2 game?
I reckon Perun must actually be a front for the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre because there's no way that one guy could produce this much insight in this much detail :-).
@@davesmith2233 Shh!
Must have fucking sucked at your job if you think this is even remotely accurate.
@@richardfewer9348 Depending where you live, Eyesurf is a very good alternative.
You gotta love how technology allows talent like Perun to eke out a niche in the media space. I am now more informed than I'd ever be if TV was still all we had. (Thanks Perun).
Legit
This is what TH-cam was supposed to do. Cat videos are cool, but education is more vital.
Technology is also allowing the Defence Minister of Ukraine to have a funny "Fella" Inu pfp.
Him using it shows his power level. That's why Russia is invading, they fear his power level, and are trying to contain his strength on this plane of existence.
@@swaghauler8334 I couldn't have expressed it better, You Tube has the potential to be an unequalled source of high quality educational material.
This channel is outstanding in that respect.
this allows me to have ten videos about handbags XD 'i've eaten a Perun today!'
A large part of public support of a no fly zone is that most Americans think implementing a no fly zone is a simple as a America declaring a no fly zone much like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy in The Office. This stems from the decade long no fly zone over Iraq where nobody was told what that entailed.
Given that Ukrainians seem to wreck havoc with partially operable/integrated HARMS - its not far from reality for US/NATO. Granted, policing sky over Belarusia/Russia could be flash poiint, but would they have to? NO. If NATO/US would enforce no-fly zone, it could warn about incoming cruise missiles as well, plus AAA assets would be way more safer, so could operate at full, rather than from hiding.
Yeah. But it also shows just how insanely powerful the US airforce is that we could just enforce a no fly zone over a nation for decades.
@@reaperking2121 not that hard to do when you already destroyed all ability to resist
America: "wtf you can't fly here"
Russia: "oh sorry my bad dude"
ezpz
@@justnothing8692 Which is what an air force is for after all...Force Projection so nothing moves anywhere
I've been listening to your videos for a while now - and I have to say this: You are, without a doubt, setting a standard of journalistic objectivity and actual research that *hardly any* news media in existence today can meet. I am in absolute awe of your quality of reporting. Please, never stop.
Very Well Said!
To be fair, he also follows a completely different process and delivers a completely different product than general news media. Because he basically doesn't do news. If normal news media would be reporting with an information lag of several days or even weeks, they'd also be more accurate and better researched
@@anna-flora999 More well researched bullshit*. The news itself would still be just as nonsensical, there would just be more cherrypicked sources to pretend that it's real. News media is in the business of getting you to watch, not in the business of making sure you're well informed. How truthful it is depends on how well the truth would sell.
The amount of research that must have gone into this video is mind-boggling. Your work is greatly appreciated.
was thinking the same.
All that research and still a wrong outlook....sad
@@singular9 Be more specific if you're gonna throw stones.
@@singular9 cringe
@@singular9 cute anime loser lmao
Perun, your channel has demonstrated the power of the internet to democratize information. Thank you for the ongoing geopolitical education, I deeply appreciate it.
I do appreciate that you take the time to translate GDP back into the human perspective. A 2% growth in GDP can be tens of thousands of dreams coming true; new houses built, that ice cream shop you always wanted to open, the immigrant buying a hot-dog stand... and conversely a 2% contraction can represent family business gone bankrupt, a life savings going up in flames, and a family having to put its dreams of having its own home on hold for a few more years.
I wish more people also understood that is the reality for millions of Ukrainians too. This war is a travesty and completely unjustified, especially given what Russia stands to gain in the unlikely event of a Russian 'victory'.
👏👏
"This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement." - Incredible how much things can change in a week haha
I had to laugh. As an American I agree that our politics is insane right now. LOL Keep up the good work. Thank you
And when he said that the majority of Americans support a no-fly zone made me laugh. "Yeah, a lot of dumb people live here."
Sadly, our politics have always been irrational.
It's considered more entertaining than Netflix in Australia, the scary fucking thing is that we copy elements here but get Nick Byrant's book. Even Potus is reading it.
Who is Brandon? Whenever I watch a clip of American politics everyone is talking about this guy.
@@elguapo1690 I don’t think the average American actually knows what a no fly zone entails
Everyone laughed at me when I said this would be like Iran-Iraq and not Desert Storm in January. The Russians couldn't perform SEAD against the Georgian flak batteries, and you don't call the new chief of staff Shoigu the "plywood marshall" because he's effective or beloved. Without SEAD and thus an ability to fly CAS wherever they are needed means that they just couldn't support their thunder runs for shit. This was inevitable.
Well we have white people on both sides now
I mean, he's called "Plywood Marshal" because he collects rare wood
you're telling me you didn't believe the hordes of highly intelligent Indian & African military experts who said otherwise?
The 2003 thunder run was possible in part due to.
Iraq’s heavy top down command structure.
Poorly motivated troops and commanders (can’t say I blame them)
Great intel to know and exploit all this.
Air superiority and the expertise to do CAS.
CIA just paying off commanders to not fight (smart move).
Russia was never gonna have a thunder run in part due to not having any of these factors.
Ukraine on the other hand has.
Motivated troops allowing to think for themselves (and the Comms never got cut in the first place)
Poor intel
No air superiority.
And a bunch of other reasons.
I am from Georgia and when I researched deeper how Russians fought I was surprised how bad they are. If not CAS we would have more chances to push them or stall them. Georgians fought well, Russians had no motivation nor tactics. Grozny shows this as well. It's quite pathetic. Russia should leave Caucasia and Ukraine alone. Go back and give the land back. Georgia has suffered enough. So many have been dying for centuries, I am honestly tired. it's time for Russia to pay. So many innocents are dying. West is here to blame as well but if Russia knew that West wanted to weaken them, why start the war? Why play west's game?
A a Swede, i would actually love a video on the European energy market and the reforms being discussed. We have an election in a week, and energy are one of the most discussed topics, but due to how complex the issue is no one really understand it. It has basically devolved into a discussion on who wants to build the most nuclear reactors...
Swede nr. 2 reporting in. I think we're in for a wild ride this winter and would also love a perun analysis of the energy situation.
Uh oh, that's not a good sign. Nuclear reactors are complex to build and plan because of inflexibility and the severe consequences of failure.
Planning to deploy them in haste, or as a response to current events, is like saying you're going to fast-track a levee program to deal with river flooding.
It *might* work out fine... but it seems generally inadvisable.
@@louisvaught2495
Swedes we're actually the first to find something fishy going on in Chernobyl when their radiation alarms were going off in their reactors
They traced back the radioactive contamination away from their reactors to some wind blowing from Belarus
Nuclear Power stations take a decade plus to build......
@Louis Vaught I havnt heard any politicians in Sweden seriously suggesting the construction of new power plants. They have however discussed changing our energy strategy - going from shutting down reactors to instead keeping them running longer. Constructing a nuclear power plant is a 10-15 year multi million (if not billion) dollar endevour.
"It's very hard to convince somebody to surrender if they think they are going to win" Perun 2022
As a Bulgarian the callout at 1:04:30 is well deserved. The older generations (>50yo) have something of a Stockholm syndrome when it comes to Russia. Although it was the Soviet-style dictatorship that made them poor slaves, they just still can't grasp that it was the lack of democracy that led to their poverty.
true
I am still deeply sympathetic to the impact of inflation on people with limited financial resources though.
My sympathies. Republican voters consistently vote against their self interest due to propaganda.
As a Romanian, it stings, but it's true.
Lots of old and uneducated people remains în the homeland.
Most of the young, skilled and educated population has emigrated in the last 32 years since the revolution.
Corruption doesn't help either.
@@PerunAU The thing is, inflation was already growing worldwide largely due to the pandemic. It accelerated due to increased oil costs (again, globally). High oil prices were triggered by the Russian invasion, but have been dropping as shuttered capacity comes back online.
I’m in Mexico. Beans and tortillas have stayed the same price (there’s price controls on corn, I’m not sure about beans), but baked goods have increased in price. Mayonnaise has gone up (20% during the pandemic, another 20% since the invasion). I’m doing fine, but some of my neighbors are struggling.
The slide on Ukrainian thoughts is very heartening. Even with surveys just being a snapshot in time, the resilience of the Ukrainians is amazing. Before the war everyone talked about their corruption and of Russia's might. Not saying those and other things don't exist...but to stand up and continue fighting after 6 months of an all-out invasion and the massacres, against a vastly larger military, one that rightfully or not was considered 2 or 3 in the world....is incredible. These people's fight for freedom is a great inspiration to myself and others. I thank you for your well-thought and insightful words, as well as your magical ability to make anyone voluntarily watch a 1.5 hr PowerPoint.
I would like even more of his PowerPoint presentations, so he is definitely doing something right. He made a really good point about the EU support, and the fact that the USA is not really impacted by the Russian energy actions. Even if the majority of the EU turns much more lukewarm, the key is "will the US and Poland continue support for Ukraine?"
They do understand that this is a war for survival, if they give up there will be no Ukraine.
@@john_in_phoenix
All the US has to do to end the war is have its Special Forces and Airforce 'volunteer' for Ukraine
Very strict censorship in Ukraine, the government has tight control over information.
Let's hope they don't get to go against the full military. I pray.
I wish all Perun fans a pleasant Kherson counter offensive.
depends what you mean by pleasant
@@coajdka It's the Bugs Bunny meme
May Ukraine have a pleasant counteroffensive that sees them end in the Kremlin
@@jloiben12 I think Ukraine should sell Safari Tickets for hobbyists drone pilots, so that every hunting an drone enthusiast could make his trophies from a relatively safe distance. It's all about huntsmenship.
@@jloiben12 good luck to the westward expanding AFU
Ok I'm rewatching this for the second time on the 9th of September and I can't help but be amused at Perun's lead in: "This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement".
Quite intense what five days can change. Let's pray Ukraine keeps up the momentum.
Right. An entire Tanks Army being surrounded in Izyum, thousands of troops but more importantly hundreds of T-72 tanks. Game changer!
@@mlc4495 the 93rd brigade entered Izium as a mechanized unit, and left it an armored one.
Ukraine had strategic surprise there, so Private Conscriptovich ran away.
They are doing marvelous things around Kherson, and for far less cost than the Russians, but it's still measured in hundreds of meters per push.
""This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement"." ... and most of the wars for most of the time are like that. Even the WW2 lots of the time were spent with semi-stable front lines. Logistics ... fast moving forces need lots fuel, ammo, food, vehicles/weapons break ... sooner or later the supply lines stretch too thin ...
Let's hope Ukraine regains as much land as possible before the mud season hits.
It's very refreshing to hear somebody from the Anglosphere talking about the EU in such a knowing and understanding manner.
Good job, as usual!
Love yours guys' videos, keep up the good work
Yooooo iam very happy to see you here very based.
Ah yes, best channel summing up frontline action under best channel summing up action outside of it
Both kings and generals and perun are neckbeard gamers with heavy western bias. Pat each other on the back and say everything is fine lmfao. Freaking idiots that will be crying in the next 6 months when winter hits.
The reason for the 'no-fly zone' support is due to the fact that overwhelming majority of Americans have no idea what enforcing a no-fly zone actually entails. They think it's a magical declaration whereby no Russian aircraft or missiles suddenly are capable of penetrating Ukraine airspace. If you change the phrasing to something like, "Do you support using US aircraft to fly combat missions to engage targets in contested airspace over Ukraine", I would guess support would plummet dramatically.
Agreed. I highly recommend The Operations Room's video on enforcing the no-fly zone on the Saudi border with Iraq, post Desert Storm.
Yep, I just got to that part and had to scroll the comments to see if anyone else said this. It's weird that we have that perception of NFZs as something passive when they're the exact opposite.
"Soft Language" that makes Americans compliant to policy
Actually, I don’t think if you put it like that the results would be all that different.
When you add in that such a policy would require suppression of air defence systems on Russian territory (which it would), well, that would make things much trickier in terms of public support.
@@JohnnyAmerique you're all missing the point. The language changes nothing about the actual proposal, and therefore if you complicate the language with confusing words like suppression and 'combat missions in contested airspace' you'll probably just encourage the fools. Just say it how it is "do you support the US joining the war against Russia in Ukraine?" Because that's what it is. Don't confuse people, state it how it is. Sure it may start as a 'no-fly zone' but it would end as WWIII by the end of that trading day.
I like how australian guy tells me our energy policy more in depth than our own government. Excellent video, thank you!
As an American Army vet, I would give Ukraine the equipment she needs to win for two reasons...
First, Russia INVADED Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting to stay Ukraine and who doesn't like an underdog? I would hope that Europe would come to the aid of America if we were invaded by a foreign power and so I agree with giving Ukraine the means to resist Russia.
Second, IF we (NATO) give Ukraine the means to destroy the Russian Army, that means that US soldiers won't have to fight Russia in the Baltic or Poland later on. I 100% support my NATO partners (they certainly supported the US), but the fight is ALREADY occurring in Ukraine, so let's give Ukraine the means to win and spare the World a larger war later on.
Yeap, as a Pole I agree. Money is cheaper than blood.
Kind of hard if Russia decided to used nukes and force both the Ukraine and West to stop provoking/attacking them.
Very hard to call it a win for anyone if we all go back to the stone age level.
And I am afraid that if Russia is pushed enough they will resort to that, even if in limited use.
Thank you swag, you're a good man
@@2SSSR2 Putin does not control the nukes, the Army does. Said Army is well aware that if they start the Americans will finish the job and obliterate Russia.
@@2SSSR2 noone attacks Russia.
A silver lining to this whole war is the increased cooperation between EU countries. It will be interesting how this will shape EU in the decades to come. Hopefully UA will have the opportunity to join too after the war.
The degraded effects of Russian propaganda and other influence efforts too. Unsurprisingly, once the war started and Russia started getting sanctioned and deplatformed there was a noticeable drop in things like antivax disinformation and pro-conservative influence campaigns in the US/UK/France/Etc.
With the momentum from COVID, the tightening cooperation on climate change and now this war... I'm carefully optimistic. If nothing else, Poland and Hungary's support of each other seems to have weakened, giving the EU as a whole more room to move.
@@marcusalm7350 I don't know about this. The war if anything has been humiliating for the EU and especially Germany's strategy of economic interdependence. Not only did it not work in stopping Russia, but they've made themselves dependent ON Russia which is a catastrophic failure. Many in the EU still have their heads in the sand about this and secretly hope Ukraine just gives up so they can go back to trading with Russia.
@@jgw9990 Thats just the internet narrative, which frankly is ever further away from reality. Like seriously, how does that even make sense, have you looked at any EU country that isnt Germany?
Germanys reliance on russian imports was at or even below the european average. In a naive manner speaking, that implies half the EU countries buy less of their gas from russia, while the other half buys more. How come you dont talk about the half that was more dependant on Russia than Germany? You know, starting with little unknowns like Poland. The countries whining about german-russian dependance the loudest were the most dependant on Russia themselves.
And some people just seem incapable to work out that contradiction and hypocrisy. Even the idea that "interdependence" was just a german strategy is pretty absurd, if you consider eg Czechia delivered and maintained important mining and harvesting machines to Russia. Central and eastern europe buy ressources from Russia, and sell machinery and expertise back, thats how it went.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch, the real test comes this winter. Small businesses and industrial companies throughout Europe will struggle to make a profit due to high energy bills, some may temporarily close.
As a german who was bombarded with the "well all freeze to death" mainstream media bs id love to see a presentation on how Europe dealt with the energy war
Thank you once again for a complete and detailed analysis of subjects rarely covered by the MSM. When my 98 year old mum asks me "what good is the internet?", you are one of the producers I cite. Without you and platforms like TH-cam, we'd simply not get this level of coverage.
Yesterday we got Oversimplified, today Perun. This was a good weekend.
I honestly thought Oversimplified stopped for good. Glad he returned
@@triadwarfare
It typically takes 3 times longer to make a video than it took Rome to build 3 war fleets.
MOAR PERUN!
th-cam.com/users/OverSimplifiedvideos
I like how you actually calculated how quick they will take Ukraine at the August pace
Fastest russian advance ever
I wonder how long it would take a snail to cross Ukraine compared to the Russian advance.
@@5peciesunkn0wn Based on an average speed of .048 km/hr = 1142.3611 days at the longest reach east/west.
@@5peciesunkn0wn 3.12 years for a quicker way of looking at it.
@@SlavicCelery Ha. A snail is still faster than the Russian army, even during the Russian sprint to Kiev.
Wow. Just wow. I ran across a mention of your channel today in a randomly suggested channel's reply in their comments section; thank the cosmos for my luck. As a retired economic analyst, thank you doesn't cover the joy of listening to your excellent, thorough and we'll spoken report. Subscribed. May all that is wonderful, peaceful and nourishing find its way to you and yours.
Welcome to the Perunian community! His channel has been growing so fast since he started doing videos on the Russian invasion that he is giving the Ukrainian recruitment offices a run for their money! 😁
Anyway, enjoy the hours upon hours of excellent analysis in his videos and don't forget to eat and drink and take a break every few hours :)
We are very grateful for all the support in Ukraine(especially you Americans, your country is truly a beast). Personally, I also think that for the west it is more about not being anyone's bitch and less about love for Ukraine.
I am sure EU will solve energy problems because you have dealt with a lot worse through the history and still became who you are today.
With love, 💙💛
Yes, but, never underestimate the esteem that was created the very courageous and united response of the Ukrainian people and military early in the war. It was impossible not to be moved by Zelensky’s “we are here” address at night from Kiev. This is also a major factor among the people who are interested enough to watch this channel.
Speaking as an American, we are definitely about not being someone's bitch, but... And this "but" is very important to understand. Many of us are in awe of you guys. It's clear that you're fighting for your freedom which is something that resonates with most of us very strongly.
Speaking for myself, the only band I've seen since Covid was Jinjer (a Ukrainian band) not long before the war began. My concern for them made the war more personal. So, I've watched the war unfold on TH-cam. I've been impressed with the incredible bravery of Zelenskyy, the amazing willpower and love of freedom of the Ukrainian people, the inspiring compassion of the Polish, and the absolute depravity of the russian troops in Bucha and elsewhere. Then there's Grandpa Savkovych who is so much like so many of the grandparents that I've known. Through it all, I've come to hold Ukraine and it's people in high regard, and I know the same is true for other Americans whom I've talked to about the war. I'd never really held russia in particularly high regard, but now my opinion of that country is very very poor.
Ukraine was not on the list of countries that I'd someday hoped to visit, but it absolutely is now.
what Kevin said... Though I'll add, continued support from a country's people vs support from a government are motivated differently. After US experiences in central Asia, expending insane wealth on civilizations that would/could not fight for their culture, the experience with Ukraine is inspiring. It has been eye opening to see how much we have in common with Ukraine, looking forward to helping you rebuild
Lol... Ukrainian people have proved that their country isn't putins b for sure!
You're wrong about it not being love for Ukraine. We have our own gruesome history with a maniac tyrant committing genocide on a harrowing scale. And it was a great sorrow to us that the only way we could get rid of him was to "sell out" all the non-Russian countries that ended up in the USSR. WWII didn't truly end until the 26th of December 1991.... And that insane KGB agent is not going to get away with rebooting it! So while I didn't have much personal love for Ukraine (mostly out of ignorance, really), prior to all this, I have deep personal love for freedom, democracy and human rights. And when that arsehole tried to take that away from you, that same love instantly got transfered to every Ukrainian.
I'm a former artilleryman of the Danish army. Two tours to ex-Yugoslavia and one to Afghanistan. If I wasn't an army write-off due to PTSD I would have been in Ukraine right now, fighting in the International Brigade. I have seen with my own eyes what it does when people have their lives destroyed by fanatic lunatics. I cried my eyes out when I heard the civilian death toll in Mariupol.... I would have died with my boots on, if that could have saved just ten of the 87,000. Putin is a genocidal maniac, and anyone who's up against someone like him instantly gets all my love. Even if I didn't know much about them just a few days before.
I hope that clears up how at least I feel about it. Our governments may be trying to navigate this shitty situation the best they can, but from what I hear from "regular people" the compassion for Ukraine is real. At least in Denmark.
Just think, if Putin never started this war, the rest of the World would still believe that the Russian military was about the 2nd or 3rd most powerful.
So much for the _Russia Stroink_ memes.
I hope we don't need to find out if the PLA is a paper dragon or not. Same situation, similar dynamics, I hope the blood doesn't need to be shed to find out.
To paraphrase a famous saying, sometimes it's beter to keep rattling a saber and look like a major, though waning, military power than to actually start a war and remove all doubt
Would any military besides USA fare any better? That's the question.
@@theleva7 like any other military in EU would do better lol.
Gaijin still seething over this by having Russian T-80 ammo carousels tank dozens of sabot rounds
As an American, the tribal political landscape of my country is...exhausting. Trying to have real discussions with political opponents is infuriatingly difficult.
The current atmosphere in the US reminds me of the 60’s. The upheaval and dangerous situation was caused by polarization, like you said, tribal.
the problem is you cant really ignore it for more than half a second or else you missed the events reinstalling slavery in the county of E from act 69420 of the Ohio Supreme Council of MAGAcratic party
Your analysis is OUTSTANDING. There is no other source I respect more. I can't compliment you enough. Please keep up the good work you do. You may look back upon your life, when you get old, at this point in time was the high point of your career, and I would think that you would be very proud of what you have done. I certainly think so.
I dunno, i have a feeling that this guy is doing some quite important work somewhere in Australia, so who knows where his career will go.
ASPI alum, I vaguely suspect
Thats some fine praise lol.... deserved mind, but err... damn, I should've prioritised differently haha
These are brilliant. A mile and a half better and deeper than anything you get in mainstream media.
Europe has truly achieved something exceptional. Before this crisis I wouldn't believe that a continent of people will be willing to suffer a cold winter and economic recession, for the benefit of one nation. And don't get me wrong, not all Europeans are willing. But most are, and that is good enough.
It's not just for Ukraine's benefit. Across Europe there is the sudden realisation that we have to get away from russian energy reliance, as a long term strategy. Europeans are doing it for Ukraine's benefit and for their own benefit.
People are suffering and want something done about it, but in my country (the Netherlands, I can't comment on others) no one's talking about forcing Ukraine getting a peace deal to push down the energy prices. No one's talking about abandoning Ukraine, people are still in full support of Ukraine. What people talk about is increase of income and the government softening the blow of the energy crisis by for example lower taxes of extra financial support for the lower incomes. We've known for years being dependent on Russian gas is a huge risk, the war has shown how horrible they act and how overblown our concerns were for the might of their army (the main reason why so many people used to oppose a possible Ukrainian EU-membership, was the possibility of a war with Russia. Ironically, this war has actually convinced a majority of the population to support EU-membership for Ukraine). What Russia fails to understand is that people in a free country who've been used to mind their own business for generations do not appreciate being black mailed by a dictatorship. They'll look and find ways to get out of the black mail so they can tell them to shove it up their darkest parts of their body. We are in pain now, but Russia can pull this card only once and Russia will get very dark when Europe becomes effectively independent of Russian fossil fuels. Considering how fast it all develops, I wouldn't be surprised if we achieve that next year.
Is it? Lol. I mean....for something that doesn't actually affect you. It's Ukraine
@@redraptor9688 your account is fake
@@StarsManny Is that why I'm using it? Jfc grow a brain
Public opinion in Poland is that we will be supporting Ukraine as long as we have to, even if we wold be the last ones to do so
Absolutely true, and it is almost universal, from lefties to the conservatives, with the sole fringe exception of the onuce from Konfederacja.
@@sachinaraszkiewicz785 ah Konfederacja, the party of frustrated teenage boys.
Poland still have very very fresh the memories of the nazi blitzkrieg and soviet occupation. You guys are not doing that shit again. Kudos to Poland.
That's not surprising. Ukraine began as some misfits from the Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth. And just because you've been wiped off the map twice, that don't mean tou can't be a good friend. If it wasn't for good friends, you wouldn't even exist. So there are a lot of connections there
With a bit of history this Polish support can be seen as heartwarming.
Because in the aftermath of the peace negotiations of Polish Soviet War in 1921 Poland effectively abandoned its support for Ukraine against the Soviets.
Now 101 years later.
Poland is effectively saying to Ukraine
"I am not going to abandon you again"
Honestly, I’d be willing to sit through 90 minutes of administrative nonsense on natural gas price structuring. The Economist is my favorite newspaper and I love this stuff. I understand the algorithm may not be as big a fucking nerd, but suffice to say you seem to be capable of making any sort of analysis captivating to a general audience. Thanks again for all your work on this channel.
Thank you for your analysis and coverage of the war. As a regular citizen of Kyiv, Ukraine - none of your videos contradicted the way we see things here in Ukraine, and I like to learn more understanding of the international situation through your great videos.
Good to see fellow compatriots lurking here :)
I hope you are fine. All the best for you, your family and nation from austria 🇦🇹🇪🇺
@@sstff6771
Thank you for your support. I am fine, though I miss my wife and little daughters very much, but feel lucky that they are in relative safety in Europe now.
As much as it was devastating when russia started the invasion, and all the horrors that it brought - maybe even more so we were overwhelmed by such a huge support and kind help from good people all over the world. It does give us so much strength to continue our stand with hopes to expel the invaders one day and start rebuilding our cities. Never did we felt like a welcomed part of global community as we do now, and hope after all of this ends - we will gladly contribute to some good sings, like science, space exploration, art, beating hunger, anything to make this world just a little bit better place.
@@AxellWolff well said and i think if you keep your will to fight you we can together we can reach for the stars
Best wishes from Poland and UK. Ukraine has a great future to look forward to: great things coming after the war including massive rebuilding package, being able to pick and choose alliances - might I take this opportunity to advocate for Intermarium 😀 - EU accession or close alliance, NATO - full membership or de facto membership as Japan). Please convey best wishes to everyone there. You guys already changed history defending Kyiv and you are continuing to make history.
And you are an inspiration for people abroad. Polish society is (obviously) greatly supportive, but also watching very carefully while building a strong army of our own (5% budget for military, revival of interest in geopolitics and everything military and lots of public debate, many private individuals are going to shooting ranges, housewives watching expert military analysis of the recent offensive, grandmas in grocery stores discussing the merits and weaknesses of military equipment we are buying [overheard] etc.). It would be great to smooth out some historical matters (so that infrequent now but hurt voices calm) and continue building a strong region, so that WE ensure that no more atrocities will happen.
Seeing EU as a whole taking swift and decisive political and dimplomatic undertaking is something I was not expecting, yet I'm weirdly proud it's happening
Let's face it: When we have it too good we focus on our differences. When things get tough we remember why we unionized in the first place!
That is the same feeling I get when opposing party American politicians agree.
Nothing unites quite like a common enemy
This is one of the best things this horrible war has brought us. Slava Ukraine
.....and you should be. I wasn't expecting it either. Now I've also learned that the EU is the same as the UE; hadn't heard of the UE before, guess it's because I'm an English speaker
1:11:33 "Although someone should tell them that BVR engagement footage isn't exactly riveting to watch" As an avid DCS player you take that back, sir! I find the little blip having a decent rate exceeding 20k ft/min on my radar screen, with the possibility of seeing a very distant black smoke trail, and if I'm very lucky a small fireball in the distance, extremely riveting, thank you!
That's ok! Embrace your weirdness! Let it shine for all to see!
(From a fellow weirdo, who's just weird in other ways)
I don't consider myself a patriotic person, but seeing how the EU as a whole has reacted to the war in Ukraine makes me feel warm.
It is good to see the EU live up to the ideals it was founded on. For as much as we like complaining about our neighbours, when it comes down to it we all stand behind the ideas of peace, cooperation, and shared burdens.
Gonna watch your patriots freeze to death this winter and protestors overthrown the governments of the EU like it was maidan all over again.
Youre right. EU is a good idea and while it certainly can see some reforms, overall its better to stand together than face challenges alone.
Don’t be naive... EU has done very little - for example - zero help came from EU to cover the costs related with refugees from Ukraine...
You can thank the British, the Poles and other Eastern nations in Europe...The main players Germany and France have tried multiple times to weedle out of helping and the EU has simply been dragged along by events.
@Craig Dendy , then that's what we'll do.
Don't care what it takes to stomp Kremlin's empire dreams out, those won't happen.
Perun: "And we cannot underestimate the importance of the political offensive, especially on social media."
Me, out loud, to no one: "MEMES, THE DNA OF THE SOUL"
That’s a poetic interpretation of Richard Dawkins original definition of “meme” and I will be stealing it.
@@raggedcritical Unfortunately, I cannot take credit for it. It's from the game Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance, which is... well, it's a thing.
@@Mrinsecure yeah I can see Hideo Kojima writing that line, though he probably didn't.
If anyone is wondering why EU support in the Netherlands has dropped, this has mostly to do with a current nitrogen crisis we are having.
Which is unrelated to the war in Ukraine but is still a large political issue in the Netherlands.
We don't have enough fertilizer because Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer in the world and we can't buy it from Russia because of the sanctions. So it's not unrelated to ukraine
Thanks for info, totally forgot about that. But it was important issue and show how the so called operation( WAR ) backfire to Russia and what wanted to achieve. I mean its in worse satiation and lost a lot of credibility as world power .
You mean the ignored referendums that said hell no to the EU? Or the fact that we squander the Groningen gas? Or that the prime minister is a pathological lier? There are so many reasons for the current political unrest in the Netherlands, Ukraine is just icing on the cake.
@@Shadow25720 Except this crisis is not about a lack of fertilizer, but rather the government on the way to take drastic matters to reduce nitrogen emissions in natural reserves. So not all related to that.
@@qlum That's just an excuse to overcome the shortages of fertilizer.
I like videos very rarely to be honest. Even fewer is the number of channels where I like the video before even watching it because I`ve never before been disappointed by the quality. Precisely 2 channels total in fact. Yours is one of them.
Cheers mate, much appreciated. I don't know who has the other slot but I'm glad to be one of them.
Any chance the other one is Suchomimus? If not, can you say what it is?
@@teresabenson3385 Nothing to do with politics or economyy though I'll look the channel you said up.
Its SsethTzeentach. Yeah, its a special kind of humour.
@@behemoth9543 I will check out that channel, thanks!
Perun, destroying Australian productivity every Monday morning while we tune in to the latest gem. Keep it up mate
Poland being tied for the second largest drop in positive opinion of Russia when their original opinion of Russia had already cratered is hilarious lmao
Pole here. You have no idea how divided my country is on everything right now... except on the Russian invasion. The fringe pro-Russian voices are ratioed into oblivion from left, right and center alike. Voices like "You are a fascist troll and I have zero respect for you, but on this you are right - F*** RUSSIA!" are quite common. What a weird moment.
it's not a drop at this point, it's drilling a hole in the earth all the way to hell
It's 2. Most of which by mistake.
@@HanSolo__ Honestly, even if it's all genuine, it's still basically meaningless; as a point of comparison, in 2021, 5% of Americans surveyed had a favorable opinion of *Kim Jong-Un*.
Fantastic report! As an ukrainian myself i cannot say how much i appreciate the work the you are doing. Looking forward to military analysis of the 6 month war
Stay strong brother! In Denmark the willingness to help Ukraine, and give Russia every whack with the clue stick we can, is greater than what our politicians are pulling off. And they're being asked hard questions about it constantly. One thing they did, however, was tell the EU they were not onboard with the lax visa sanctions, and as of a few weeks ago Russians cannot get a travel visa or residency permit in Denmark. That helped a little bit. But they're currently being asked why the FUCK we haven't sent our F-16s to Ukraine yet. We're going to replace them all with F-35s anyway, and almost all of our F-16s are the highest-upgrade models. We have both the two-seater training model and and the regular ones. 33 in total. With the 4 F-35s we already have, we could give you 24 F-16s and still meet our NATO-readiness quota.... I hope it will happen soon!
Слава Украине!
@@Jimmy_The_Goat Героям слава!
I look forward to your videos every week over any other channel on TH-cam. Your compilation of information, video format and line of reasoning make the videos so enjoyable. Thanks for all the hard work. Keep em coming.
Same.
I don't know many other channels that can keep me engaged for even an hour, much less those that can do so for an hour twenty with what comes down to a narrated PowerPoint presentation... this is still amazing, thank you so much
Mate, your videos are simply astounding. The quality of analysis, including caveats and sources is mind blowing.
That was really good. Is it me? They way you are communicating your points seems to have gotten better. I really enjoyed this episode, thank you.
I’m ashamed of our Canadian Prime Ministers unwillingness to help Europe with its energy needs. He claims that global warming is the reason, but fails to recognize that having Europe turn to our natural gas is better for the environment than turning to coal. It would also help us pay for a much quicker transition to greener energies. 🤦♂️
He's an idiot. Much like (Kiwi here) ours.
Hum we are? I mean not with Albertan Oil because it wouldn't be feasible to transport it from the west to the east but we are working on Hydrogen plants with Germany and selling a fuck ton of gas oil and hydro to the US. It's more a case of we can't help them much rather than we don't want to.
Sorry I can't money, but a big thank you for all your hard work in putting together this video, it's very much appreciated. It's hard watching events unfold not to get despondent, your analysis has give given me hope.
Yet again an absolutely superb episode. Best in-depth coverage of the conflict by far by anyone, including mainstream news.
Finally, a new presentation dropped by. I was looking for it since yesterday, thank you Perun!
Jinjer fan? ;)
@@j.f.fisher5318 I am, female vocal in metal is breathtaking if done properly. What do you think?
From my own irish perspective...
We were never fond of the Russians, the constant military flights and submarines passing up and down our coasts in the last few years are always there to remind us that they aren't far away. A healthy dose of american and british television which all of Europe watches brings home the 'Never trust a Russian' that's in most spy thrillers since we were kids (james bond)
As a member of the EU we watched the internal bickering in Brussels because we had nowhere else to focus our attention (bar the american elections). Now we do, Russia.
That survey of Americans asked about a no fly zone over Ukraine was definitely conducted in the same month Top Gun was released lol.
Absolutely love your videos man, keep up the great work.
Say what you will about the Soviets, they resisted S.P.E.C.T.R.E. with the exception of a rogue colonel here and there. It’s somewhat shocking to think that within ten years of the fall of the USSR, S.P.E.C.T.R.E. was able to take over the Russian government entirely.
It’s good that the western democracies are waking up to the threat posed by S.P.E.C.T.R.E., even if our governments won’t officially acknowledge its existence.
This is only partially a joke.
"A healthy dose of american and british television"
Healthy?
Just because a foreign government is your enemy, doesn't mean your own government has anything but contempt for you.
Fantastic job on this one Perun. I've watched just about all of your videos since this conflict began and I think this one ranks near the top. There are many topics to cover in the economic aspect of this war and you've managed to explore them in your own approachable yet rigorous way. Keep it up!
I love how this channel has grown. Thank you so much for all the hard work you put in with these videos!
Russia's hopes to erode western support for Ukraine by cutting off the gas supply in what they hope will be a cold winter seems like a long shot to me. I'll admit I don't know enough of the industrial and secondary energy generating applications of natural gas to judge if that is a sound strategy or not, but if Russia's hopes rely mostly on the public turning against the sanctions in order to heat their homes, It seems like they are forgetting that they supply Europe with gas, not warm socks and blankets.
The German industry requiring natural gas is a more critical aspect, it becomes a balancing act of cutting gas use in heating/cooking/energy generation to keep the industry affected the least, and try to use alternative means of energy generation.
I heard coal plants may be reactivated but I'm not sure how feasible that is in the next few months.
So pipes freezing all the way to reduced industrial capacity. wont affect strugling families?
@@gamerfortynine Except there would be no frozen pipes.
@@gamerfortynine Not likely to. Global warming means winters in Northern Europe are milder than they used to be. More like a prolonged autumn. Even as far north as Denmark where I live, we have nothing resembling frozen winter wonderlands anymore. Sweden and Finland and Norway might, but they are not the issue here.
Can't speak for Poland and Ukraine, they might get deep frozen in the winter, but somehow I doubt it.
Europe gets cold in the winter, but hardly freezing.
Russia even in the best case, forgot something called coal and firewood.
More then one hour of nerdy power point goodness. I’m in.
Yes agree, were self selected to think like that. Perun subscribers are a niche but growing group.
You've somehow got me excited when a new 1hr+ PowerPoint presentation comes out, amazing work.
We are in Europe and I think that I speak for many people here who are willing to have higher energy prices if that means that we don't support a war buy-hearing out homes. We hear the need to decarbonise and de Gasify now more than ever. We will not surrender until Europe is the world's first clean continent. In Vienna, Austria energy bills rose buy 50 % and we will never pay energy prices like this again.
the first clean continent.
both from a environmental standpoint and from a standpoint of having a clean consciousness.
Clean Europe? Either the world is clean or no country, much less a continent, will ever be, we all share planet 🌎, including the air we breath.
@@invictus9976
then we take the lead and lead with a example
I am in the UK and would happily leave my gas valve off all winter and rely on blankets,
I have this fear that instead the UK government is going to shell out money to anyone who asks for help with energy bills therefore increasing inflation, not resolve or help resolve the underlying issue of energy supply and then wuss out of all sanctions against Russia as soon as the voting public makes moaning noises.
@@jeremynorton9288 inflation is more driven by investment banking. The pittance citizens would get for heating isn't a factor. You've been misled.
The sanctions were never going to be a… one punch knockout. The sanctions we levied are a slow burn. It is a lot like what Ukraine is doing in the south. If you destroy all the ammo it doesn’t matter if the opposing military has 10x the number of artillery units because you can’t use artillery units if you have no ammo for them.
The sanctions have done massive damage to Russia ability to regenerate its material. That is the key thing. They started with massive stocks. The sanctions don’t really effect that. But when they blow through their stocks and have to start making new ammo, equipment, etc, that is when the sanctions will put the screws to Russia.
The Sanctions are ensuring Bricks establishment. I.E. There is an alternate economy not in control of the west being built up as we speak.
They better work because the energy crisis is burning through western public support for the Ukraine and their govts finances
you have no idea how much ammunition there is in Russia. In 2010, I was in military service and we were engaged in the disposal of ammunition. Every day, during the year, about 100 tons of shells were destroyed.
@@suphead Amount means little, what is important is not the sheer amount but how much of that ammunition is actually viable.
Given the state of many of the 'stored' vehicles in Russian stockpiles I am willing to bet that much of that ammunition stockpile is more or less unusable. Just as much of the Russian stockpiled vehicles are.
@@suphead
Sure. And other than AK ammo that will outlive the universe, how much of that stockpile is actually usable? We have already seen in basically every way that the stated totals of material Russia has is substantially larger than what is actually useful
Good job again Perun. And yes Perun, our politics here in the USA is insane.
That also explains why we prefer to trust the military and state department to make decisions regarding Ukraine, rather than the politicians.
Yep. Ask Americans their opinion on The Affordable Care Act vs. Obamacare and see how they differ (same thing fyi).
Seriously, my favorite channel on all things Ukraine/Russia and military/economics in general. And far from the videos being too long , I am more than happy to luxuriate in the level of detail, it’s an absolute treat.
Beautiful, simply beautiful. Perun has a talent for dissecting and describing relatively complex issues in a way that makes them interesting and readily accessible to folks whose eyes would normally start to glaze over after ten minutes. After 81 minutes, I still feel like shouting, "Encore!".😄
Excellent analyis, thanks a lot!
I think, I would speak for the vast majority of the viewers, when I ask you to keeping up the quality rather then the quantity of your videos. As much as we enjoy the frequent updates, please keep your main focus on the exceptional quality.
The war chest thing is as much of a cultural thing as preparation for war. It's legacy from soviet times where everyone was saving up for rainy day in Sberkassa, yet when USSR fell almost everyone left with "broken washtub", as we say
That money could have been used to improve the life of the russian people. For that alone they should have taken to the streets in protest. Think of how much better the hospitals would have been (they're a disaster), or the schools, or the infrastructure (roads, railways, sewage, water treatment, etc), especially in rural areas where the majority don't even have indoor plumbing. But no, war, war, war. Because imperialistic expansion is more important than the people. That kind of small-brain thinking really irks me.
@@zdspider6778 It's especially aggravating to think about, when you realized that Putin could have achieved his political goals (a sort of USSR 2.0) much, much easier, if he had simply invested all that money in Russian infrastructure and raising the quality of life for the ordinary Russian, and creating a modern, well-functioning state. This would have given all the old USSR member states something to look up to, and aspire to become a part of. Instead, he has thrown it all away.
@@zdspider6778 Russia could've been the crown jewel of Europe if their leaders weren't so preoccupied ransacking the place.
@@MrAstrojensen KGB officer will always use KGB methods no matter what century it is
This is one of your best presentations yet. Important data with context on a broad range of issues. Thanks for the perspective that helps cut through the disjointed snippets we get daily.
As a fellow Croat who commonly used "Perun" as a nickname and sign, it will never not bother me that you used it and became *the* Perun. Jokes aside, great video as always, keep it up.
what does the name mean?
@@w0ttheh3ll The Slavic version of Odin, if I'm not mistaken
My grandmother had the misfortune of having her heat pump fail last winter. This wouldn't have been an issue if it weren't for the component shortage leading to it taking months for her order of a replacement to be completed. To keep her very large home liveable, she used resistive electric heating, so her electric bills were insane.
Best analyst channel anywhere. If this is your day job. They need to give you a raise. Your government should pay you well and give you resources human and equipment.
The US, UK, Canada, and Australia are not dependent on Russian energy. Poland and some of the other Baltic states are additionally likely to support Ukraine no matter what that means for their energy supplies. So you’re right, there’s no scenario where Russian energy policy could entirely end military support to Ukraine.
Lol the USA is Russia's number one buyer of uranium lmfao
@@snikrepak Canada is the third-largest producer of uranium in the world, and has reduced its production as demand has dropped (as nuclear reactors have shut down in many parts of the world). Canada has the ability to increase production. So I stand by my statement that the countries I listed are not dependent on Russian energy. I believe you have conflated a willingness to buy Russian energy in the past, with a dependence on it. You have failed to establish a necessity for the U.S. to buy Russian uranium, and the fact that Canada is a reliably ally of the U.S. and has uranium to spare would seem to debunk your assertion.
Well, from here in the UK I can tell you we are very exposed to the global gas market price. We might not import much from Russia, but we buy on the same market as Germany and other European countries who do use a lot of Russian gas.
Still, people here aren't keen on helping Russia win its war.
@@pault1289 Oh, for sure. Every country is affected by significant swings in oil and gas prices. I don't use any oil or gas (everything at home is electric, including heat and hot water, and my main transportation is an e-bike), but even I'm affected by it as I nonetheless buy products that get delivered to stores by gasoline-powered trucks, etc. But it's at least not making a difference to whether we can keep the heat on this winter, you know?
@@ScrapKing73 Even your electricity is likely higher because most electricity is produced by burning fossil fuels
Well, I'm only one individual, so I can't speak for all of Europe, but if there's _one_ thing I hate then it is someone telling me what I can and cannot do. Which is exactly what Putin tries to do right now, at the international level. As you can imagine, that doesn't win him any sympathy points from me ...
So, anything _but_ what Russia wants is exactly the thing we should do.
Also, fantastic presentation! Thanks so much.
this channel offers the best coverage on the conflict that I have been able to find, really really well done, thank you for making and posting these
Best coverage for Ukrainian propaganda
@@jonbon8598 no definitely disagree, there are much better channels if you want either Russian or Ukrainian propaganda, hard to get RT these days
@@peterhumphrys thanks for reply 😍 we,LL agree to disagree, but I do miss RT, I watched it for yrs , but I can't be arsed now, to go on to Odysee for it, Best wishes 🥳
An invaluable analysis on the effect of post modern warfare today. This should inform future models of militant conflicts.
Why do you think all the countrys sent their equipment to Ukraine? Battlefield testing in full scale war scenarios is invaluable
@@DJ1573
This war relegates Russia to Third-world country status
@@DJ1573 countries that are sending, are rebuilding their stocks with new and better
32:50 I love how you give this important topic the respect and thought it deserves. you are amazing at analyzing incredibly complex aspects of this war, and your personal experience brings a unique perspective and skill set. But you never forget that behind the numbers and headlines, real humans are suffering, struggling, and dying
Thanks for your video, I always look forward to seeing your really good argumentation and logic on interesting matters regarding the Russian invasion war.
It is fascinating how, when I saw a new video from you pop up, my reaction was "Oh boy, oh boy oh boy"! I have no idea why but I always look forward to your content, please keep up the good work. Time to make some coffee and watch :)
Denmark closed down its gas production for some time for maintaining the infrastructure. While stoping expansions of new fields to limit the climate crisis.
But do to the war the reopening date have been pushed forward to spring 2023 I believe.
Also, we have, with Poland, opened a pipeline securing a huge boost in capacity for Norwegian gas getting exported to Denmark, and especially Poland, it will even help Germany out.
At the same time we have removed laws that made it harder to build Land-based windmills.
In the longer perspective we are with Germany, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic nations started a project of sea based giant windmills in the Baltic Sea close to the Danish island of Bornholm that will output more energy then what already are in all of the area.
I supplying enough energy for 30.000.000 households I believe it were.
At the same time a Danish company, that Bill Gates climate fund just invested a lot in, are making a more efficient way to transform the electricity to hydrogen and back it to electricity when needed.
There are an other Danish project making it possible to transform the hydrogen in to methane efficiently there by allowing it to be stored, transported and used instead of the current natural gas.
Also we have in years worked to isolate buildings better, there have been big tax deductions to those who have done so.
Also a lot of houses have changed to heat pumps that can use electricity to heat up houses extremely efficiently.
Denmark is mostly isolated from the worst effects of the energy crisis since we have one of the biggest renewable sectors in Europe and most heating is supplied through district heating and the rest is mostly electric. District heating is so efficient that even rising energy prices barely affects it, my heating bill has not changed one bit throughout all of this. The only area of the Danish economy that's being hit is industry that uses gas and while that's significant Denmark also is mostly a service sector economy so it's not the worst compared to especially Eastern Europe. And of course the prospective profits to be made from wind energy in the Baltic and North Sea are massive so Denmark stands to come out of this as basically a wind energy Norway.
don't forget biogas. Around 25% of our gas consumption has been replaced by biogas so far :)
@@thegreatdane3627 Yup. We need more cows and pigs!
@@hedgehog3180 arh still 13 % of the residents use gas for heating and some central heating grids are powered by gas but has an easier time converting. My gas bill has almost trippled. Luckily I can afford that but some can't.
Furthermore, our food industry is quite reliant on gas, but they should be able to change easily to oil burners. They mostly complain until the last minute in hopes of getting government aid for the change and to get the government to remove environmental tariffs on the oil before changing.
Hi Perun, I live in Groningen and the will to sacrifice our homes'integrity to help Ukraine and make us less subordinate to Russia is at an all time high, and the Groningen People are historically very stoic and stubborn. so if we decide to sit this out for the greater good we will do so much longer than most people around us would, just as we have endured these earthquakes for much longer as we should have. just wanted to share this little bit about my home area
The world supports Ukraine. I admire stoicism and stubbornness in the face of coercion. Go Groningen! There are few moments of moral clarity, this is one.
I get excited when I see these type of long form high quality analysis discussions... Appreciated!
I fricking love this channel, i love long form detailed reviews of subjects that are often overlooked
The price of the ruble is not so significant. 40 years ago the ruble was officially sold for 1 dollar. Of course, you couldn't go to a bank and buy dollar for your rubles - you had to go to the black market where the exchange rate was "somewhat" different... :)
Also, if you stabilize the exchange rate of your currency by FORBIDDING actors to sell it for not Mickey Mouse currencies, that may look like a real solution, but ask any economist ( or anyone for brains, for that matter) on how long term that solution is likely to be. :)
Stopping supplying key statistical indicators is a VERY strong sign they are falsifying statistics, so no need to apologize for not believing all Russian government figures. Sonnenfeld says they stopped supplying some statistics even the communist state was providing all the time... :D
Yes, it was a long one - but I was still disappointed when it ended! Thanks yet again for producing these videos, there is nothing like it anywhere else. You are providing a vital resource.
My absolute favorite TH-cam channel when it comes to covering the war delivered yet again and at a time when I really needed it. Thank you so much for such a comprehensive review of topics at hand, this one video in particular sounds like it's been an enormous amount of work. As a Ukrainian, sometimes I go all doom and gloom because of seeing just how much russian propaganda, bots or people who have lost their way are out there, sometime I start to hesitate whether Europe or the US are gonna stand with us for as long as needed. I worry about how this winter is gonna go, how the public opinion is going to be affected. And I usually know things are not looking grim, but sometimes all the garbage you can see and read online can really wear your confidence down. But this video does such a great job at giving an overview on how things are looking on the energy, economic and public opinion front and it's good to see that despite all the shit I'm seeing and reading, all the wrong takes and opinions, that the world still stands strongly with us and there's no sign of that suddenly changing anytime soon. This made my day. Thank you, Perun.
Slava Ukraini! Hang in there, God willing this will be over in a year or two at most.
Love the vids. I never thought I'd be watching videos on the economic side of military conflicts, I usually prefer to see things BOOM. You do a fantastic job of breaking things down for knuckle draggers like myself. FYI, don't worry about 1 hour plus long videos(provided you're up for the extra work). I would guess the majority of viewers clicking your video thumbnails are willing to take the extra time for an insightful video on topics either not covered or only having the surface scratched by other youtube channels and the media. Looking forward to next the vid so you can drop some more bombs of knowledge on us.
So happy about the topic this week. Thanks for your hard work 🙏
Warscrolling through UAF footage on twitter I got motivated to turn down the heating another degree. Yes I live in Europe.