Japans population is losing over 800,000 people a year, while their national debt is still going up and exports are going down. It doesn't take an economics professor to see this is not sustainable.
National debts denominated in your own currency and owed to yourself are easy yo manage. Private debts are what matters. Also if you are losing population you have to erase generational debt to not burden the young. If Japan is to be faulted it is their social and economic policies are out of sync. China doing a better job of steering their economy.
China will soon or already are loosing 800 000 people per year. China also has extream debt (higher debt to GDP than the US) Japan own a significant amount of debt from both China and the US and the bank of Japan is the largest owner of Japanese public debt. I don't think Chinese debt is sustainable either.
It's happening to all the developed Asian countries, Korea is next, China's turn is coming. The reason this doesn't happen to the West is we allow imagration, these Asian countries do not.
@@ry4nwo0t China is way over populated. They can lose half the population and still have twice as many people as USA. China's Debt to GDP is 77%. USA's debt to GDP is 114%
The Japanese have this cultural thing about saving face. What it means is that even when you know that your boss is wrong, you cannot embarrass him by contradicting him. A friend of mine who had a temporary gig working as a visiting scientist for a research institute in Japan that was lead by a world famous scientist told me about a time when he contradicted this world famous scientist in a meeting. He said there was an audible gasp from the other team members. The thing is that if you are in a system where you cannot take input from your subordinates, you can get so lost. This Japanese scientist was selected to write Journal Reviews of the field several years in a row. I worked in the same area and I knew that after a few years, he was so lost as the science moved forward.
True. I've been in Japanese automotive part makers for 32+ years. I can say for sure that the seniority became the heaviest barrier. They're so conservative, a radical ideas however geniuses they are, will have no way to consider. They just like their own way, moving a bit by a bit, make reports on it and report it again and again. And they still considering that made in China is inferior. They are hard workers, the Japanese. But already for a long time I thought that it's only a habit, actually not so much come out from their 12 hours work a day. Look at all automotive industry in Japan, any surprising products? In my opinion, Japanese car makers now need a radical ways to move on, both in product desing and manufacturing process.
Japan might seem advanced but deep down they are really low tech, most employees dont know how to use email and prefer to use FAX, my cousin works at Sony HQ said it takes a week to do something in a western company it would at most take 2 days because FAX and all the paper they use, with fax you cant change or update on the fly, you need to sit down change, print then fax, which is really troublesome especially when the report is 10 pages and longer. also the respecting seniority japan takes it to a stupid level because it makes employees inefficient what takes 3 hours to complete ends up taking a week because everyone doesnt want their boss to think they are lazy example work hours are 8am to 6pm ends up as 7:30am to 11pm because the junior employees dont want to be see as unreliable hence arrive before the boss and leave after the boss. my cousin had a cowoker that arrived at work at 8am and left at 6pm daily get passed up for promotion as ended up as a junior employee for 10+ years, he was promoted to a manager and the coworker was still in a entry level position when they both entered the company at the same time. and when he tried to interview at another company he couldnt get a higher position because the boss had used his connections to basically kill off his promotion routes unless he were to go and start working for lesser known companies, this why Japan is stagnant, the companies have too many unwritten rules.
Not a face culture. Japan is still an ancient society. A feudal society. If you look at who the parent companies of famous Japanese companies are, you will be surprised.
Same thing in India --absolute idiots in positions of power due to age and "caste" in Indian companies, doing all sorts of stupid things, and still subordinates clap at every stupidity.
I work for a Japanese insurance company in China, I manage the claims, so I have seen so many Japanese companies. after seeing all so many JP companies, I really have been puzzled why they have got so good reputation, they react to market really slowly, and many of them have super bureaucratic process to make any decisions.
You Chinese are the new Japanese. BYD and others will do what Honda did in the 70’s and 80’s. I look forward to it as I am tired of hearing racist and stupid comments about China and Chinese products. I just picked up a Chinese electric RV and love it!
I agree with you. I’ve said many times if the Chinese get a foot hold in Europe it’s to late for many manufacturers to get that market back. Mazda have been in denial of Ev’s for years and I think like you that could finish them. The sad part in this is Nissan it was one of the first to bring Ev’s to the masses with the original leaf 13 years ago but never really built on that because the current leave is simply a re body and bigger battery of the old one still with all its drawbacks.
Now we all know that "Who killed Electric Automobile" was not a joke. I said it before, and I repeat it now: China shifted all to EVs, not Tesla. Tesla opened the mid of the people but unfortunately, just the Chinese leader understood the opportunity...now all the rest just try to sit in the game... and I am afraid of what they are capable to do (I never forget what they made to Tucker in the USA)...
I think it was the Mazda CEO a few years ago who said something like "We've received no indication from our customers that they want an EV" and was then deluged on twitter by ex-mazda customers saying essentially "yeh thats because i know you dont make one so i just sold my old Mazda ICE and bought an EV from someone that did"
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
Here in the UK yesterday alone, I saw no less than 4 MG fours. On the road. It may not sound Much but that is far more than I have seen any other electric vehicle bar a Tesla….
I see loads of Tesla’s in the UK a couple of Renault Zoe’s, but haven’t seen a single MG oh and a Hyundai Ioniq the other day which surprised me as they make so few of them!
The ev disruption was predicted by Tony Seba many years ago. I found what he has been saying about this compelling and its very interesting and exciting to sit back and watch his predictions happening. After listening to many of his talks over the last few years I became convinced that all new car sales would be ev by 2030, it may even happen before then. He has lots of interesting things to say about the coming disruption in energy and agriculture too.
I will NEVER buy a full BEV, but prefer instead a hybrid that provides backup power generation in case of prolonged power outage, OR duirng the peak summer heatwave when people are told NOT to charge their EVs. With a hybrid, you got a 2fer: You got a car AND a highly portable power generator for free.
VIKINNNNG, you're one of my top 5 youtuber. Don't know how you do it, keep it a secret. Best recovery wishes to your wife and all people affected by tragedy.
It's actually extremely easy to register an ICE car in Shanghai and Beijing unless you never owned a car before then in Beijing you have a lottery (most difficult place in country and not sure their EV rules) and in Shanghai you have an auction for new plates. Currently local Shanghainese are exempt from the auction system for EVs and PHEVs but rules are still stricter for that than 2 years ago. But if you are one of the millions of people that own a car already (ICE car that is) then you can buy a new one very very easily and register it very very easily. just transfer your plate. probably takes 2 hours tops. The real reasons why people in large cities switch to EVs: - incredible charging infrastructure even though every one lives in high rises - a lot see it as cheaper because electricity prices are controlled and also you don't pay 10% VAT on EVs right now and in Shanghai you also get a free plate whilst the plates at auction cost around USD15-20 k (cost if registration in Beijing are nothing but chance of winning lottery are so low) - many think many it will become mandatory at some point or at least that the subsidies will go down (and whilst in Shanghai you still get a free plate now and no VAT, the EV manufacturers no longer get subsidies from government since Jan 1) - many people are also eco conscious - many consider EVs to be cool But these cities are not representative of China as a whole and go to even Suzhou which is a large city and close to Shanghai and EVs are less prevalent. go to the countryside and the infrastructure is much less convenient. In Shanghai on each block you probably have 10 charging points within 100 meters. In small cities, you may have 10 for the whole city. For those places, the goal is cleaner engines China 6+ and beyond. their range of vehicles in much more suited to smaller cities and rural areas than Tesla or the upmarket Chinese EV makers. Now BYD will do fine there because of the huge range they offer.... and btw, Toyota now launched around 9 NEV models in China and Honda as well. Will they survive? probably if they adapt. and one thing you need to also take into account, these guys are all in JVs with Chinese state owned automakers. And these have huge capital investments with their foreign partners so whilst they would certainly like their own brands to do great, they don't have much incentive for foreign partners to fail. And neither to local governments. If you are the Wuhan local government for example then Nissan and Honda are important. These JV's with SOE are also the reason why China 6 powered inventory got a 1 year extension. Now whilst Ford and GM are also important, I think they will struggle the most of any legacy automaker in China. their products are well dated or overpriced The real story is where in 10 years Tesla will be in the Chinese markets... they are 10th now and there is no longer this huge advantage for Tesla. many Shanghainese when considering an EV nno longer think that they HAVE to buy Tesla... unless they develop a strategy with more than 2-3 models at a time, will they still be there? not sure, and they dont have SOE partners to help them either. oh and btw, the biggest discounts this year are not BMW or Toyota. But from EV makers and especially Tesla. They kind of try to hide that by saying this is a "revised" price rather than a discount but the last 2 years Model 3's have seen huge price drops... and this has pisse off a lot f people who nought at higher prices.... and they can't sell much of these either these days.... most of their sales are Model Y....
Doesn't take away that the change is happening. Norway was first. Tesla sells globally and can sell all their products globally. $1,000 shipping cost max. BYD Nio saic can build cars and there are dozens of charger manufacturers due to 2W, 3W, buses and trucks also increasing. So really only talking a 3 year lag at most. Apply 80/20 rule.
@@davidbeppler3032 first not sure if they build it for 30% less but assuming this is true then this is still a big issue. First, they dropped prices many times and every time they did this a lot of people who bought a car a day before a price drop have been peeved in the sales staff not telling them to maybe wait a day or 2 (and in China, most sales are done via showrooms). Secondly if you bought a Model last year for RMB280,000 and this year it sells for RMB229,000 then if you want to resell your car now, it has lost a huge amount of value... So yes, some people are pretty pissed off and in the end the endless yoyo of price changes (prices went up slightly a couple days back) do annoy many including customers. And this is significant in China because historically depreciation on used cars has been much less significant than in other countries
Firstly, EV's are only good for 15-20 minute cities. And that's great for china but in the rest of the world they are about to die out, why, people are waking up, we in the west love our freedom, EV's restrict people. ICE vehicles can be more enviromentaly friendly than EV's, the technology is there to make ICE to be over 90% efficient, if that is done then EV's are done for. Where will that leave China's makers as they are all betting on EV and l have not started with Hydrogen which Toyota is betting on. True hydrogen vehicles will kill everything else, period, its called the power of H2O
Great video! I did not realize that Japanese car sales had suffered so badly in the Chinese market. North American and European sales of Japanese cars seems to be good for now but if China ever gets to sell EVs in Europe and North America that could change.
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
China do sell ev,s in Europe, in Denmark we got BYD, MG, Xpeng, Nio, (Polestar). But a lot of them set up their prices like they are the new VW or Toyota. So they need to drop their prices and get in some of their small cars. Manny also have bad charging speeds.
" North American and European sales of Japanese cars seems to be good for now" They're leading the market in the US since they're catering to the 90% not buying EVs.
Its ludicrous that the share market is treating this like nothing happened. Like just another day in the office... They've lost the China Market for good, and they are going to lose the Australian market, developing markets and Europe soon enough. I am surprised that people are not dumping Toyota and Honda shares like a bank run. It shows you that humans are foolish collectively.
They just believe what they are told to and power of 💵 is still convincing. The worst is for the serious and smaller distributors who were giving trust to Honda, Nissan, Subaru or Toyota and have had family businesses in the third generation already. Trust is the most valuable thing on earth and if you are about to loose you loose everything.
@@stevenjones916 still have 18% is not comforting enough mate, it's down from 25% just 3 years ago. That 7% shrink means almost 2 million sales a year gone. Consider the whole Japanese domestic market is only around 4.5 mil a year. When VW was experiencing a way milder decline a couple years back in China at least it spent huge on EV now they have a full army of I.D EVs ready in the market. What are the Japanese manufacturers gonna do to hold the 18% from further decline?
same thing happend to chinese smartphone market before. Samsung was the #1 Android vendor in china. but chinese quickly caught up, offered almost the same quality for much less money, and pushed Samsung out of their market.
Samsung pushed themselves out by sueing the Chinese customers who reported Note 7 catching fire. Nobody is refusing Japanese cars from a PR stand point in China, yet. So they may come back after they get their cars up to date, unlike Samsung.
@@byhyew bad PR gets forgotton soon. that is not the point. the point is competition and that is where japanese fail. even their traditional cars have fallen behind Koreans. nobody believes in a comeback of japanese electronics. what reason is there for the japanese car industry to catch up?
@@nxtphone4696 Yup decades ago Japanese tech companies along with Japanese auto maker used to rule the market but slowly and steady Korean and Chinese companies ate the market from Japan
Hi Sam, you can build a similar story with Europe, mainly Germany and France. As for the disappearance of cell phone manufacturers, it is a question of managers. All the companies Nokia, Motorola, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry have been massacred by their managers, too arrogant or too shy to invest. Their problem is that they are no longer entrepreneurs, that they are far from their teams, that they are risk averse, that they are busy managing daily problems, that they are blinded by details. This is the problem of all former car manufacturers. A clue: all of them are still developing new versions of their engines today. Another clue: 90% of their new products in 2022 were based on internal combustion or hybrid engines. We are entering the exponential section of the technology S-curve, so it is too late to react, the game is over.
As always they're fighting the last war. After all that's what they know. Remember they've not been sanctioned and sanctions like they say makes you paranoid and paranoia makes you stronger. Just ask the the Russian and Chinese
I myself was working in that industry back then and I can confirm what you said is true. There are so lacking of innovations and the people who manage it think they know better.
Actually, Mercedes decided to terminate all development of combustion engines for person cars over a year ago and I believe that is already happened. For large cars it is different but also here they have set a end date. So at least Mercedes are trying...
We're clearly on the same page: I just released a more general video laying out the case that ALL gas powered car sales are in jeopardy right now. You're pointing out that Japan is in the worst shape is super sad, but hardly surprising. If people watch this a year from now, it'll all seem obvious but no one seems to "get it" yet today.
Justa thought, and i dont know the answer to this, is there a possibility of a set of "last gasp" purchasers of ICE vehicles by the "holdouts" that might be a substantial portion of car buyers, perhaps 20-30% of people who have taken in all teh anti-EV FUD and so will want to stick with ICE and thus will buy one near the end of the European (and to come Chinese and maybe US) cut-offs 2030-2035 so they can keep an ICE car for the next 15 years or so? Of course that still means 70-80% of car buyers who will hang on their ICE or buy an EV, in either way leading to crippling drops in sales. So I guess either way, yeh they are screwed.
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
The economies of scale that have benefitted Toyota for many years also operates as production volumes decline, except that a decline in volumes exposes the diseconomies of scale that apply at lower production volumes.
Why do I want to pay the same amount of money on an ICE from previous gen, while I can pay the same money on the newest gen of EVs from many brands especially in China. It is just simply not working logically.
The irony of it all is the CEOs can always just go cry in their yachts and reminisce about the good times. Heavy is the head that wears the crown...right. I wish more industry leaders would be open minded and make decisions based on extensive information.
There are 4.5 million Japanese gas cars sitting in China‘s dealers lot, they won‘t be able to sell them after July 1st due to new emmision stardard 6B which was announced in 2016 by the Chinese government 7 years ago. Japanese car manufacturers choose to ignore the regulation change and they are going to pay a huge price. Porsche’s current models meet the new emmision standaed 6B already thus they have no 'problem.
Interesting report as usual. Last evening I was told by friends on the Central Coast, NSW that they had ordered a Toyota Corolla hybrid and it has taken them 8 months and counting to get delivery. Of course they bag me out for buying a Tesla (which I got in 2 weeks in Oct 21- inventory; my son got his M3 in 4 months delivery), but they are outlaying for old tech it has taken almost 12 months to get. When r people going to realise this is a revolution and Toyota is heading for their Kodak moment. Further, why is Toyota pushing the Hydrogen Mirai in Australian media? There are only 2 public access hydrogen filling stations in the whole of Australia...this is insanity!
You're missing that the same thing is going to happen in the EU and Northern America. It's not about brands, it's about consumers choosing electric. And the Chinese companies lowering the ev price. And this all accelerating the battery improvements. The Japanese companies are dead men walking
@@trungson6604That's because EVs are very expensive in this market. But it won't last long and when those EVs with below 20k dollar price tag enter the north American market we'll see.
I always thought that Toyota would be ahead of the game since they were making hybrids before anyone else. How hard would it be, I thought, for them to enlarge their battery element to exclude the ICE element of their hybrids? I guess they went for some kind of quick buck by not accepting the possibility of an EV switch world wide.
I would say Nissan has the most unbelievable failure. I've owned my Nissan Leaf for many years and still love it. At that time it is the most popular and no-brainer choice in the market. They foresee the future and made the right decision way ahead of their competitors, invested in EV production, and yet failed to compete in the market now.
You spot on. Japan moves very slowly in their decision making. Don't understand why. Contrary to China, the business people make decision quickly and they're gutsy. Very gutsy. This is why Japan is in trouble.
@@SunriseLAW Japan is no longer the leader in TVs anymore. They had NFC before most countries. Look where Sony is at now. They don't have dominant smartphone market share. You need to look up "Galapagos syndrome"
@@SunriseLAW "I know, but some of the companies are still really big." Really big does not mean they can't go bankrupt or be acquired by some other company. **See: Blockbuster Video, Bear Sterns, Sears, etc** See the video: "Top 10 Largest Compaies by Market Cap" by Ranking Charts. Japan **had** SIX companies at the top 10 in 1991.
The Japanese brain is not flexible enough, it is difficult to change, Japan used to have 6 leading industries in the world, but now there are almost none. Japan built in Vietnam high-speed rail 16 years did not move an inch, rotten to this day.
I'm not writing the Japanese off. They are a brilliant people, tremendous engineers, with unique attitudes toward creating and finishing products. I expect them to be EV competitive sooner rather than later.
I agree that japanese companies could save themselves by adapting and innovating but they are definitely on the back foot as far as this information has revealed
The Japanese work on consensus while the Chinese are very individualistic. Look at the great entrepreneur, many are Chinese origin, it is in their blood.
Something was wrong with Japan after the 1990s. The Koreans took over TV semiconductors and shipbuilding, to name a few. Japan used to invent the cassette tape, VCR, and LCD screen better than America. Japan lost innovation after America raised the value of the yen, which could be a factor. Japanese people are very polite and clean. They like creative cartoons. But they are enormous saver compared to Americans. Japanese culture is similar to Chinese Confucius and Zen, plus Buddla. Chinese people are more assertive and forceful. America clamped down on Japanese growth in the 1990s and now in China. China fought back, and the Japanese didn't. Japan's smaller size compared to China is an issue. Japan could be a friend of China, but she aligns with the US mainly because of its military base. Japan would have been a good choice if China hadn't risen. Now, China would not be a friend of any country if America's military were on its land. What we are seeing is Chinese soft power. At least China is not using military power like America would.
One answer would be for the Japanese brands to team up on two or three shared platforms to start, especially if they don’t believe in EVs this would be a very cost-effective way to meet what they view as limited market demand (we all know there’s tons of market demand) but it’s mind-boggling that they’re not doing what Ford-VW are doing with the European Explorer for example… just silliness
I live in Canada. The only new electric car company is Vinfast. There are no Chinese auto companies at all. There is such a demand for affordable electric vehicles. But supply and choices are still a major issue. All legacy auto companies are in trouble. If and when the Chinese EV flood gates open… look out.
There are a few Japanese companies that will buck the trend and do well. Panasonic is one of the major manufacturers of EV batteries, thanks to their partnership with Tesla.
the thing about Japan is their companies come together during crisis, I strongly believe in 10 years there will be lot of mergers and acquisitions in japan car industry and there will be only 3 major carmakers left in Japan. For instance, Toyota can merge with Suzuki and Mazda and create a giant company that can weather any storm.
Yes, you are right about about their reaction in a crisis. But Toyota already partly or wholly owns so many of them anyway; and it is Toyota that has that world history leading bad debt. It's not going to end well for Japan.
Not sure if Kodak were to merge with Fujifilm would have made any difference then. Buying up or take a significat stake in struggling China EV companies probably makes more sense.
Japanese carmakers' dilemma is complex. EV involves 3 major technologies: traditional car, software, and battery. They are only good at the first, and need to master the last two as quickly as possible. Transition is very expensive. That's why only Tesla and highly committed Chinese new players fare better, so far
And Tesla are making a profit on each sale as well as charging equipment and storage. So far not relying on repairs. Past vehicle industry is based on servicing, parts and repairs. If you can't make money on an EV sale, you don't have the time to get to the repair era.
A review of Tesla's development history shows that it is China's well-developed electric vehicle industry system that has made it successful. If Tesla had not set up a factory in China, it would have been stuck in production hell for a long time and could not have quickly opened up a gap with other competitors。It is also because of China's well-developed electric vehicle supply chain that Chinese brands are able to iterate quickly, leaving all other countries behind.
@@ShareGoodThings11 Agreed. Chinese new players entered the field around 2014 and started developing the supply chain. Tesla joined in 2018 and brought some technologies. Benefits are mutual. Obviously BYD worked on it even earlier and developed its own supply chain
Japanese carmakers simply cannot compete with Tesla and Chinese automakers on making BEVs. That ship has already sailed. What they can do now is to make Hydrogen Combustion engines hybrids to compete with BEVs. That's what they are good at. H2 stations will be built for H2 trucks and buses that H2-cars will be able to fill-up also. Just a lot of marketing for energy companies to build H2 stations and for people to buy their "self-charging" H2-powered Zero-Emission hybrids. Toyota should press ahead with Hydrogen Combustion engine with hybrid power train that is already perfected and proven to be highly profitable. People will simply fill up with Hydrogen the same way they have been filling up with gasoline. Leave the complexity issue for the experts to solve. We will just enjoy motoring the same way we used to.
On 2022, Toyota sold 14M out of the 66M vehicles sold worldwide, BYD sold 1.8M and Tesla.sold 1.4M. Ie, Toyota outsold Tesla.10:1 in 2022. In Australia, Toyota out sold Tesla 11:1
The only way I can explain Japan's failure to proceed with EVs, after a promising start 15 or so years ago, is that maybe Toyota has a significant shareholding of oil companies, who offered the decoy of hydrogen power while badmouthing EVs to the board and executives. This is an interesting possibility, because if true, Toyota's failure will not only lose them (the oil companies) money but will signify the end of oil's market to car owners. It may precipitate failure of some oil giants and create an avalanche toward EVs. Japan's economic collapse will be just a side story. The rolling failures of oil, some of them US-based, may indeed bring about another depression and in any case will remove the USA as the world's biggest economy. As a side note to that, it would be ironic if Mexico had to enforce its borders to stop unemployed US auto workers going to Mexico to seek work with Tesla. I think Elon is more likely right than wrong.
@David Inkster Toyota looks at the Chinese automotive market as they see the US. Those two markets are very different. The US is dominated by the automobile. China is not. In the US getting around without owning a car is extremely difficult. In China it is not. China, therefore is served by the needs of electric vehicles. Those cars are very useful for getting to and from work, for going to the markets and other chores. They don't need their cars to go from Chongxing to Beijing to Xian. They have high speed rail to handle those things. And when traveling between those cities there is a plethora of mass transit available. Going from Los Angeles to Chicago to New York is a much different matter. There is no such thing as high speed rail in the US. And Los Angeles mass transit is very rudimentary compared to anything in China. Chicago is more similar to LA than any Chinese city. NY has a decent mass transit system but when compared to Beijing?? It is not even a contest. Japan bases all its major decisions on its major market, the US. And they have figured out the US won't abandon their gasoline powered cars for EVs. Hydrogen is a different story. So Japan waits for hydrogen to become big. But even in hydrogen, they trail badly. Hyundai has them beat badly. Why won't Japan turn their nation's scientific prowess to making hydrogen useful? Using carbon nanotubes as a catalyst for generating electricity? Getting off the exotic and rare metals such as platinum, palladium and iridium for converting hydrogen to water and generating electricity. Trust me, Hyundai is going all in on hydrogen. The Koreans are very big in battery technology also. Japan has been paralyzed. By their history of imperialism, their refusal to apologize for it and then they make the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear meltdowns a reality. They don't even have the scientific expertise to deal with the nuclear meltdown. Japan has been described as a killer whale by Colonel Douglas MacGregor. It is a broken down nation with nothing good to offer to anyone. They are poisoning the environment in which we all live. And the Japanese are really expected to lead Asia?? They will trail the rest of Asia. China will lead Asia. The Koreans will be second. Japan won't even be third. They will trail nations like Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand. Just watch. It is coming.
Oil companies will change, but only when they absolutely have to. They have the ability to finance almost any purchase of renewable energy technology or whole companies. They will do this when they start seeing big declines in their revenues, which won't be for some time. Also keep in mind, they are not just in the oil and gasoline business, they are also the chemical and plastics behemoths of the world. Those oil based chemicals and plastics have almost no replacements and will support the oil giants for a long time. It will take a century for us to develop non-oil based plastic materials and maybe not even then.
Toyota put all there eggs into a fuel cell concept. They made the best one in the world. They just failed to see how many nations would have hard carbon rules.
Love your work. This podcast is a little simplified. Yes the Chinese have created an environment to say it nicely challenge foreign car makers. When you look at Japanese bond rates (around 0.4%), things are not so dire for Japanese firms. You have to give them credit their business model of waiting till proven technology arises has served them well in past. I think they will be a late adopter and reduce investment to proven long term technology. At this point are solid state batteries or salt batteries going to be in the future. I know for myself, I am going to buy one more ice vehicle, hoping a battery comes along with lower insurance costs and better performance in New England (US).
The problem is that legacy automakers can't start late and then leapfrog to the front, because designing EVs and autonomous vehicles requires radically different designs. In order to get to a decent design, they needed to fail a couple times to realize what is needed with EVs and AVs, and that takes time, and it takes time to build the supply chain. Tesla learned a lot with each iteration, and the startups like Rivian, Lucid, NIO and Xpeng show how hard it is to get it right, even when starting with a clean sheet design.
@@granttaylor8179 no , new evs will become cheaper and way more plentiful, besides I am not saying other cars won't be around still , but that new cars will only be getting sold as evs.
@@granttaylor8179 this “can’t afford an EV” is getting old now. There are many decent second hand EVs on the market now here in the UK, that will only increase in the coming years. That, combined with the falling new prices over the next couple of years, brings affordability to the market. Not everyone can afford a new ICE car either. In three years, we won’t be talking about this any more, only the collapse of the ICE market in Europe and the UK.
Fun Fact: In California, only 17% of drivers have access to a private charger in their garage or driveway. That means 83% will have to use a public charger. There simply isn't enough property to build these charging stations.
@@scottbreseke716 I should have book marked the site I found this on but if you look around in the cities, there are apartments and condos everywhere and more being built, the vast majority do not have private charging. However, there are public charging sites going in everywhere but the article I read only applied to private charging, which includes most EV owners with houses. Furthermore, there are large residential areas in Los Angeles where parking is very difficult to find, especially in the evening. Imagine putting a charger out front of your house, it would be gone by morning.
No matter how much one loves the Japanese people, it seems their automotive industry is going down and probably dragging their national economy with it, due to their reluctance to adapt when everyone else is turning to EVs.
Love your work. My 2 cents worth of comments: when I was a young electrical engineer we had to attend continuing professional development courses. One of them was Risk Management, and the lecturer opened with which country produces the best co-pilots ? Answer was Australia, because we have little deference to authority, and Aussie co-pilot would rapidly question the pilot’s judgement. Which country has the worst co-pilots ?, take your pick of many Asian nations who can’t criticise authority. So Japan’s reluctance to manufacture EVs and China building up 1000’s of unwanted cars dumped in open fields will not get challenged by middle management anytime soon.
Great video and I understand your stance. I think your biggest oversight is what has happened with other Japanese failed exports. If they fail to export, that may not mean the demise of the Corporation. Many Japanese companies thrive on the home market demand only. There is a massive backstory to support that claim and it goes back decades, but my opinion is that the Japanese car market will shrink, not collapse.
This is an interesting remark. I have read that the Japanese plan was to go hydrogen based on the premise that they would have abundant nuclear electric. This would work for the domestic market but they would struggle to export those cars unless other countries did likewise, which would seem unlikely. Your theory that they could thrive without exports might explain their thinking.
justinv2 • Yes, first it will shrink, and in the end it will collapse. People will not wait for the japanese to catch up. People buy EV now and in this decade, and they will keep their EVs for decades. Therefore, in 2030 only the EV car manufacturers who build the best, the cheapest, the most useful, and the most reliable EV models, will survive. There will be no room for any new EV manufacturer after 2030 unless something fantastically inovative will come up, either in the whole electric theory ( a new and revolutionary "electric motor" concept ) or in the battery technology domain ( which is quite possible ).
Love you talk. Thru' out the changes in the industry have many changes. Companies should adopt & adapt to changes in order to survive. We have seen shift in various tech. Like mainframe to PC. Phone, etc to mobile phones. We have seen companies like IBM, Nokia, Xerox, Kodak, etc vanished. Products such as Cassette, CD, VHS tapes, walkman, turntables, radios, etc are replace by new product Tech changes is inevitable, but cause a recession by these new innovation is ridiculous. You must be from another planet.
European governments might be willing to put tariffs on Chinese EVs if they threaten European workers. The best stratagy for the Chinese EV makers might be to build EV factories in Europe as Tesla did with the Berlin Giga factory.
Any kind of tariffs like that is incredibly dangerous, and will just be applied. Right back by China. However, depending on how strong the lobbying is, it may well happen in any case.
@@eggheadegghead Hyundai profit is growing and now bigger than Toyota this year 😂 where is China? 😂 China is wrong fight with Hyundai and can't catch up 😂
No worry, we are on a island call US + Canada. We will make the last stand for ICE technology. It is funny that the industry doesnt seems like realizing what happning around the world.
I am really fearing that we face the same fate here in Germany. Only Mercedes give some hope with their luxury segment and the EVs they already have....
Perhaps what hit Nokia (smartphones came from eg Apple where Nokia top management stayed and focused on historical products) is hitting eg Toyota (vs Tesla) as well....
Love your channel Sam. I'm making some big changes in my life because like you I see this train coming down the tracks. Its going to be an economic disaster for those who are not paying attention.
I believe due to Akio Toyoda pushing for the Japanese industry to invest so heavily into hydrogen tech, he has taken a less public role because the waste of all these resources is becoming painfully obvious. Toyota had a stake in Tesla. They had am electric RAV4 ages ago, but cancelled it all. Now, Japanese builders are scrambling and it was Akio and fellow leaders who laid the ground work for this mess Japan is facing. The ICE market is dropping off a cliff. There is this strange idea that EVs will not be sold around the world because some nations are not ready. What I think they ignore is solar panels and large battery backup is all that is needed. Many nations would love to import less oil. Many consumers would love to have no need to visit a gas station. The sun is a free resource. Wind is a free resource. EVs require less parts, less work to keep going. This means from poor to rich, consumers on all levels will find EVs appealing. The other thing that Japanese leaders seem to have not thought through is pace of innovation and improvement. When a technology has not had massive resources put into it, that means it is under developed. That also means the amount of change will be high in a short period of time. ICE has been well funded for decades, thus why 100 million dollars in R&D of ICE does not get the kinds of improvement $100 in EVs gets. As a bonus, some of the key tech for EVs is used is many other industries. Batteries power modern life for most of the world. It is the battery tech that has helped to unleash the EV change upon the world. As much as some politicize EVs as a woke thing or lefty thing, it was need for bettter batteries in phones and other mobile tech that got this wave of EV demand to be possible. I am waiting for the day when Akio and other top Japanese business leaders hold a press conference like Mitsubishi did, where they admitted they failed and apologize for how their actions have hurt so many. Not that it will save the pain Japan has coming, but until they acknowledge their mess, it is hard to fix things.
No later than this morning, I came across a YT channel praising the farsightedness of Akio Toyoda!!! Some people are definitely in for a painful awakening!
Hybrid car with hydrogen combustion engine is the best path for Japan because it requires the least investment and the least amount of debt. Toyota already makes millions of hybrids yearly, so switching to hydrogen is easy, just change the fuel tank. Also, switching from hybrid to plug in hybrid just put in a bigger battery pack. See how easy it is?
@@trungson6604Before they could sell one hydrogen burning car, they would have to spend a couple of billion dollars installing hydrogen fueling infrastructure. It's something they've needed for ten years already but have still not done. This says a lot. Gasoline burning hybrids are going to have a short shelf life going forward. In another ten years they will be either banned or facing imminent bans.
@@trungson6604 Have to disagree because EVs havevfewer parts and people already electrical outlets all around. Hydrogen vehicles are complex to build, hydrogen stations are expensive, and have issues as well. California is already shutting down some hydrogen stations due to the costs and problems. If EVs get solid solar power built into the vehicles, they will basically recharge themselves. When you look at the complexity of hydrogen or classic hybrid, they both fall short of EV. Ownership is simpler for owners, costs are lower for operation, and we are seeing retail prices dropping below ICE. Not a single dime or minute more of time should be spent on hydrogen. Battery tech, solar tech, EV charging tech, and overall EV tech is getting rapid returns on investment and are helping consumers and nations to break away from oil addiction while improving life.
@@kevtheobald There is massive investment in green hydrogen worldwide to replace fossil fuel. Eventually, hydrogen will be available everywhere just like natural gas now. Don't worry about complexity, leave that for Toyota.
The best solution is PHEV. For example (with intensive): NIRO BEV (Comfort) = 42,000 euro NIRO PHEV (Comfort) = 34,000 euro NIRO HEV (Comfort) = 31,000 euro Scenario: 8000 km/year - urban and 4000 km/year - outside city. NIRO PHEV has enough autonomy for driving one day in the city. Consumption: - petrol: Urban = 7liters/100km; Outside city = 6 liters/100km; - electric: Urban = 13kWh/100km; Outside city = 16 kWh/100km; Prices: petrol - 2 euro/liter; electricity - 0.2 euro/kWh; Costs per year: PHEV = 688 euro; BEV = 336 euro; HEV = 1600 euro; You need to drive for 22 years the BEV to make the 8,000 euro difference between BEV and PHEV. You need to drive for 3.28 years to make the 3,000 euro difference between PHEV and HEV. You need to drive 8.7 years to make the 11,000 euro difference between and BEV and HEV.
You're probably right. Toyota is smart, why rush when people aren't rushing out to buy EVs. People still would rather have hybrids... and people in Japan don't buy anything but Japanese cars.
Why plateau?, because they don't make the same financial sense in a lot of countries. $10-20k for an EV? try that in Europe and let me know how you get on, and the infrastructure is pitiful, not to mention cost of electricity.
It's so sad for Japan in what you're saying. I have a Nissan X-Trail (Rogue in U.S.) and I plan to keep her for as long as I can. I lived my whole life with the ICE and simply don't want to be without it. However, yes, the writing is on the wall. Hence, the next vehicle will be electric. The wave of electrification is just overtaking car sales going forward here in Thailand. BYD sales has overtaken Toyota in new sales ever since the Atto 3 model came out. It's a great combination of new energy-practicality-affordability. Before BYD, GWM could'nt do it with their ORA suite of EVs, even though there was wide spread talk about how cute and innovative it was. Well that offering was lacking practicality and the new kid on the block, BYD got it right. Now that everyone knows the right combination, a lot more new comers will make their offer. As of today, new factory commitments have come from GAC and Changan. It's definitely getting crowded fast abd I don't know what Japanese players are going to do to hold on to their majority share of the market.
In Thailand, BYD sales has not overtaken Toyota. Toyota still unrivaled. Thailand Q1 2023, the leader remains Toyota with 84,576 sales (+3.6%) followed by Honda at 26,492 (-13.7%), Ford at 14,039 (+36.9%) and Mitsubishi with 13,041 registrations (-15.5%). MG secures 5th position with 7,637 sales (-20.4%), in front of Mazda at 7,179 (-34.4%) and Nissan with 6,047 sales (-33.8%). BYD rises 27 spots into 8th with 5,578 registrations, followed by Suzuki with 4,463 sales (-38.7%) and Mercedes closing the top 10 with 4,316 registrations (+18.7%).
It's easy for you all to tell Toyota to quickly switch to EV. But the reality is going to EV for Toyota is gonna bleed more money for Toyota as most EV maker are bleeding money making EV except BYD and Tesla. If Toyota is going full EV, it's gonna bleed even more money and worsen the situation.
Not if Toyota licenses Tesla technology. Elon has offered. Several times. And Nokia Toyoda just sneered. Nice nepo baby. Pulled the plug on grandad’s brilliant creation.
Love the channel and I learned a lot of the video however most of these percentages aren’t for EVs it’s for plug in vehicles. PHEVs and EVs make up the 30% market share. So if Toyota just pivots to making more of their PHEVs which have some of the best range in the world than they should be fine. It’s more a matter of how maneuverable they can be. Hopefully they release the Tacoma EV soon and speed along their other EVs.
Even before all of this EV transition, I thought that Japan was in trouble from the competition coming from S Korea and China. Japan would go bust anyway but now with this EV thing, it will be much, much sooner. And most of that is their own damn fault. Xenophobia and the lack of forward-thinking or risk-taking is the root cause of Japan's decline. Sure they are great at copying and improving designs but only their Prius was ever revolutionary or original.
I live in Japan. I tried to buy a new Toyota may 2023 as I live in heavy snow country with no access to charging, so require fuel. It's impossible, every single model I enquired about, there was either a 5 year wait list or the model is unavailable due to sudden safety regulation changes. It's absolutely bizarre, I don't have time to see what Nissan or Subaru can or cannot sell right now, so asked the dealer to call me once orders open for the 2024 prado desiel GR.
OK Electric Viking, I have thought you were telling B/S as we say here in NZ, but the more I have decided to question your logic etc with my seriously good and modest brain! And to my surprise, a lot of what you say is true, and the rest which I haven't processed yet is highly likely to be true as well. Ok so we will drink your beautiful Red Wines if you buy our beautiful white wines?
It would be a crying shame if the major Japanese automakers go under, but one would have to believe it would be the result of their shortsightedness, I have owned a few Hondas and loved them, I would be very sad to see them go.
I wouldn't revel in the misfortune of Japan; have you seen what economically desperate countries can do? Quite a lot of people, countries and companies are dependant on Japan for their technology, whether hardware or software.
@@theproffessional9 we all have our time on earth. Japan, USA and Europe had their good time but now it is Asia, Latin America and other parts of the world's time to shine.
In Korea, Japanese cars are expected to gradually disappear from the global market as the era of electric vehicles approaches. The problem with Japanese companies is that they can't cope with the changes of the times. Due to the characteristics of Japanese companies, it is difficult for Japanese companies to survive in a rapidly changing world. In the era of electric vehicles, Tesla and Hyundai-Kia are likely to become two-way systems.
Korean companies experienced China's retaliation against THAAD in advance and their share in China decreased from 10 percent to 1 percent. Korean cars, like German and Japanese cars, have a low percentage of the Chinese market, so they are not hit hard. In the West, other brands except Tesla and Hyundai-Kia of Korea are suffering from their own electric vehicle platform or battery technology. Currently, a large-scale factory of Korean battery company LG Samsung SK is being built in the U.S., and lithium-ion batteries are not available without Korean companies.
@@mjatonyperry8508 I don't agree. The US never lets BYD take over the world. The same is true of Europe. The automobile industry is different from smartphones. Even smartphones, Chinese brands do not sell well outside the Chinese market, except for low-cost products.
@@PeterXiao1 The lithium-ion battery sector was virtually occupied by Korean companies. They have a lot of patents. Ford, GM, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, Stellantis and Volkswagen are all building joint battery plants with Korean battery companies. There is currently no alternative except for Korean battery companies. The LFP battery of a Chinese company is a temporary battery technology, and it has a fatal disadvantage that it is impossible to regenerated. The LFP is also a fatal weakness, with a 50% reduction in mileage in winter
I fully agree that legacy ICE makers are doomed, but if the reason is better efficiency of EVs than ICS it will not mean a global recession, rather it will mean growth as overall transport gets cheaper.
imo repair is also a part of the vehicles life cycle. if mechanics and parts are too fragmented then i dont think the chinese cars will even survive in legacy areas. we're seeing the ramifications of new EV's on the roads getting into accidents. how much they cost to repair and who has expertise in the field. many of the cars are a complete write off from the inability to repair. insurances are starting to adjust to that and are charging an arm and a leg to insure such EV's.
My parents have a Toyota Prado and the tech is like death of a thousand cuts, I had to really go looking for simple fixes like how to stop the map disappearing which was extremely frustrating for my Dad in heavy traffic. The Tesla? The map is just the default, it ain't going anywhere unless you want it to and even then it acts like your background so every time you close setting adjustments or analysis you are back at the map. My Mum was originally freaking out a bit when I fiddled with the map on a long continuous stretch of road, by zooming out to get a better idea where we were because she was worried she'd lose it and be unable to get the close up view back before the next corner, but the instant you get a new voice direction the map springs back to the original close up map setting we'd been using like a rubber band. It also has the icon you can press if there is no turns for a bit to make it spring back as well, which I did actually have to use because the next turn off was so far away. XD Which once Mum knew how things would react and got comfortable with it, she really, really liked that feature. No more disappearing maps! So yeah good tech in vehicles _matters_ and people want something that is familiar and just works. Totally see why the Chinese market is going this way.
Japans population is losing over 800,000 people a year, while their national debt is still going up and exports are going down. It doesn't take an economics professor to see this is not sustainable.
National debts denominated in your own currency and owed to yourself are easy yo manage. Private debts are what matters. Also if you are losing population you have to erase generational debt to not burden the young. If Japan is to be faulted it is their social and economic policies are out of sync. China doing a better job of steering their economy.
China will soon or already are loosing 800 000 people per year. China also has extream debt (higher debt to GDP than the US) Japan own a significant amount of debt from both China and the US and the bank of Japan is the largest owner of Japanese public debt. I don't think Chinese debt is sustainable either.
It's happening to all the developed Asian countries, Korea is next, China's turn is coming. The reason this doesn't happen to the West is we allow imagration, these Asian countries do not.
@@ry4nwo0t China is way over populated. They can lose half the population and still have twice as many people as USA.
China's Debt to GDP is 77%. USA's debt to GDP is 114%
@@mefobills279 governments have no clue how to "steer" an economy, the U.S. included. The more they meddle, the worse it gets.
我是Mazda产CX4车主。这辆车挺棒的，除了噪音总体来说还是不错的。但是在体验过EV后，依然不会再选择Mazda的产品了。因为这就不是一个世代的对手。消费者为什么要花同样的钱买一辆过时的产品呢？即使是比亚迪十万人民币左右的混动车，其舒适性，动力性，用车成本，智能化程度也远超我的CX4。在中国大陆，我基本上可以用语音操作我车内几乎所有可控制的零部件。这太方便了。
對日本的車公司來說Mazda 應該先死了。
看看那架MX-30 EV，Mazda為了所謂的情懷，把油車和電車2邊的所有缺點都全包了，如果在電車時代這車廠還不死的話真的太沒天理。
别说你那马自达了，我的x5都不怎么开了，现在做备用车两年了。
The Japanese have this cultural thing about saving face. What it means is that even when you know that your boss is wrong, you cannot embarrass him by contradicting him. A friend of mine who had a temporary gig working as a visiting scientist for a research institute in Japan that was lead by a world famous scientist told me about a time when he contradicted this world famous scientist in a meeting. He said there was an audible gasp from the other team members.
The thing is that if you are in a system where you cannot take input from your subordinates, you can get so lost. This Japanese scientist was selected to write Journal Reviews of the field several years in a row. I worked in the same area and I knew that after a few years, he was so lost as the science moved forward.
Germany is a softer version of that.
True. I've been in Japanese automotive part makers for 32+ years. I can say for sure that the seniority became the heaviest barrier. They're so conservative, a radical ideas however geniuses they are, will have no way to consider. They just like their own way, moving a bit by a bit, make reports on it and report it again and again. And they still considering that made in China is inferior.
They are hard workers, the Japanese. But already for a long time I thought that it's only a habit, actually not so much come out from their 12 hours work a day.
Look at all automotive industry in Japan, any surprising products?
In my opinion, Japanese car makers now need a radical ways to move on, both in product desing and manufacturing process.
Japan might seem advanced but deep down they are really low tech, most employees dont know how to use email and prefer to use FAX, my cousin works at Sony HQ said it takes a week to do something in a western company it would at most take 2 days because FAX and all the paper they use, with fax you cant change or update on the fly, you need to sit down change, print then fax, which is really troublesome especially when the report is 10 pages and longer. also the respecting seniority japan takes it to a stupid level because it makes employees inefficient what takes 3 hours to complete ends up taking a week because everyone doesnt want their boss to think they are lazy example work hours are 8am to 6pm ends up as 7:30am to 11pm because the junior employees dont want to be see as unreliable hence arrive before the boss and leave after the boss. my cousin had a cowoker that arrived at work at 8am and left at 6pm daily get passed up for promotion as ended up as a junior employee for 10+ years, he was promoted to a manager and the coworker was still in a entry level position when they both entered the company at the same time. and when he tried to interview at another company he couldnt get a higher position because the boss had used his connections to basically kill off his promotion routes unless he were to go and start working for lesser known companies, this why Japan is stagnant, the companies have too many unwritten rules.
Not a face culture. Japan is still an ancient society. A feudal society. If you look at who the parent companies of famous Japanese companies are, you will be surprised.
Same thing in India --absolute idiots in positions of power due to age and "caste" in Indian companies, doing all sorts of stupid things, and still subordinates clap at every stupidity.
I work for a Japanese insurance company in China, I manage the claims, so I have seen so many Japanese companies. after seeing all so many JP companies, I really have been puzzled why they have got so good reputation, they react to market really slowly, and many of them have super bureaucratic process to make any decisions.
Because Japan is US'DOG, so it is OVERRATED.
You Chinese are the new Japanese.
BYD and others will do what Honda did in the 70’s and 80’s.
I look forward to it as I am tired of hearing racist and stupid comments about China and Chinese products.
I just picked up a Chinese electric RV and love it!
@@yuey0602 I know - visited China first time in 1990 and fell in love with the place and its people.
@@badchefi yeah, maybe old memories are usually about the good things, I kind of miss 90s.
@@badchefi wrong China will never be Japan. Japanese have strong National ethics, Chinese do not
I agree with you. I’ve said many times if the Chinese get a foot hold in Europe it’s to late for many manufacturers to get that market back. Mazda have been in denial of Ev’s for years and I think like you that could finish them. The sad part in this is Nissan it was one of the first to bring Ev’s to the masses with the original leaf 13 years ago but never really built on that because the current leave is simply a re body and bigger battery of the old one still with all its drawbacks.
Denial about rotary engines too lol best use so far is range extending a plug-in imho 😂
Chronic passive cooling
Now we all know that "Who killed Electric Automobile" was not a joke. I said it before, and I repeat it now: China shifted all to EVs, not Tesla. Tesla opened the mid of the people but unfortunately, just the Chinese leader understood the opportunity...now all the rest just try to sit in the game... and I am afraid of what they are capable to do (I never forget what they made to Tucker in the USA)...
I think it was the Mazda CEO a few years ago who said something like "We've received no indication from our customers that they want an EV" and was then deluged on twitter by ex-mazda customers saying essentially "yeh thats because i know you dont make one so i just sold my old Mazda ICE and bought an EV from someone that did"
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
You must have a record for creating the most videos in a day/week on TH-cam!
Dunno how the dude finds time to make them. It's incredible and good content.
Here in the UK yesterday alone, I saw no less than 4 MG fours. On the road. It may not sound Much but that is far more than I have seen any other electric vehicle bar a Tesla….
I see loads of Tesla’s in the UK a couple of Renault Zoe’s, but haven’t seen a single MG oh and a Hyundai Ioniq the other day which surprised me as they make so few of them!
MG and Polestar are the blueprint for Chinese companies to globalise product easily.
I want BYD seagull as my first car 🚗😀
I want one U8.
The ev disruption was predicted by Tony Seba many years ago. I found what he has been saying about this compelling and its very interesting and exciting to sit back and watch his predictions happening. After listening to many of his talks over the last few years I became convinced that all new car sales would be ev by 2030, it may even happen before then. He has lots of interesting things to say about the coming disruption in energy and agriculture too.
Sad News and I agree Japanese car makers will go the same way as UK car makers, it's adapt and meet market demand at a good price or die.
It's becoming more and more clear it's a huge change to evs
I will NEVER buy another Toyota or Nissan because they continue their 'Self Charging' Marketing BS!!!
I will NEVER buy a full BEV, but prefer instead a hybrid that provides backup power generation in case of prolonged power outage, OR duirng the peak summer heatwave when people are told NOT to charge their EVs. With a hybrid, you got a 2fer: You got a car AND a highly portable power generator for free.
VIKINNNNG, you're one of my top 5 youtuber. Don't know how you do it, keep it a secret. Best recovery wishes to your wife and all people affected by tragedy.
Thanks Mate!
It's actually extremely easy to register an ICE car in Shanghai and Beijing unless you never owned a car before then in Beijing you have a lottery (most difficult place in country and not sure their EV rules) and in Shanghai you have an auction for new plates. Currently local Shanghainese are exempt from the auction system for EVs and PHEVs but rules are still stricter for that than 2 years ago. But if you are one of the millions of people that own a car already (ICE car that is) then you can buy a new one very very easily and register it very very easily. just transfer your plate. probably takes 2 hours tops. The real reasons why people in large cities switch to EVs:
- incredible charging infrastructure even though every one lives in high rises
- a lot see it as cheaper because electricity prices are controlled and also you don't pay 10% VAT on EVs right now and in Shanghai you also get a free plate whilst the plates at auction cost around USD15-20 k (cost if registration in Beijing are nothing but chance of winning lottery are so low)
- many think many it will become mandatory at some point or at least that the subsidies will go down (and whilst in Shanghai you still get a free plate now and no VAT, the EV manufacturers no longer get subsidies from government since Jan 1)
- many people are also eco conscious
- many consider EVs to be cool
But these cities are not representative of China as a whole and go to even Suzhou which is a large city and close to Shanghai and EVs are less prevalent. go to the countryside and the infrastructure is much less convenient. In Shanghai on each block you probably have 10 charging points within 100 meters. In small cities, you may have 10 for the whole city. For those places, the goal is cleaner engines China 6+ and beyond. their range of vehicles in much more suited to smaller cities and rural areas than Tesla or the upmarket Chinese EV makers. Now BYD will do fine there because of the huge range they offer....
and btw, Toyota now launched around 9 NEV models in China and Honda as well. Will they survive? probably if they adapt. and one thing you need to also take into account, these guys are all in JVs with Chinese state owned automakers. And these have huge capital investments with their foreign partners so whilst they would certainly like their own brands to do great, they don't have much incentive for foreign partners to fail. And neither to local governments. If you are the Wuhan local government for example then Nissan and Honda are important. These JV's with SOE are also the reason why China 6 powered inventory got a 1 year extension.
Now whilst Ford and GM are also important, I think they will struggle the most of any legacy automaker in China. their products are well dated or overpriced
The real story is where in 10 years Tesla will be in the Chinese markets... they are 10th now and there is no longer this huge advantage for Tesla. many Shanghainese when considering an EV nno longer think that they HAVE to buy Tesla... unless they develop a strategy with more than 2-3 models at a time, will they still be there? not sure, and they dont have SOE partners to help them either.
oh and btw, the biggest discounts this year are not BMW or Toyota. But from EV makers and especially Tesla. They kind of try to hide that by saying this is a "revised" price rather than a discount but the last 2 years Model 3's have seen huge price drops... and this has pisse off a lot f people who nought at higher prices.... and they can't sell much of these either these days.... most of their sales are Model Y....
Nice explanation of the state of affairs in China👍.
Doesn't take away that the change is happening. Norway was first. Tesla sells globally and can sell all their products globally. $1,000 shipping cost max.
BYD Nio saic can build cars and there are dozens of charger manufacturers due to 2W, 3W, buses and trucks also increasing. So really only talking a 3 year lag at most.
Apply 80/20 rule.
Wait, Tesla builds the Model 3 this year for 30% less than last year, and people are mad because the price went down? How does that make any sense?
@@davidbeppler3032 first not sure if they build it for 30% less but assuming this is true then this is still a big issue. First, they dropped prices many times and every time they did this a lot of people who bought a car a day before a price drop have been peeved in the sales staff not telling them to maybe wait a day or 2 (and in China, most sales are done via showrooms). Secondly if you bought a Model last year for RMB280,000 and this year it sells for RMB229,000 then if you want to resell your car now, it has lost a huge amount of value... So yes, some people are pretty pissed off and in the end the endless yoyo of price changes (prices went up slightly a couple days back) do annoy many including customers. And this is significant in China because historically depreciation on used cars has been much less significant than in other countries
Firstly, EV's are only good for 15-20 minute cities. And that's great for china but in the rest of the world they are about to die out, why, people are waking up, we in the west love our freedom, EV's restrict people. ICE vehicles can be more enviromentaly friendly than EV's, the technology is there to make ICE to be over 90% efficient, if that is done then EV's are done for. Where will that leave China's makers as they are all betting on EV and l have not started with Hydrogen which Toyota is betting on. True hydrogen vehicles will kill everything else, period, its called the power of H2O
Great video! I did not realize that Japanese car sales had suffered so badly in the Chinese market. North American and European sales of Japanese cars seems to be good for now but if China ever gets to sell EVs in Europe and North America that could change.
Not so great in those market as well.
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
China do sell ev,s in Europe, in Denmark we got BYD, MG, Xpeng, Nio, (Polestar). But a lot of them set up their prices like they are the new VW or Toyota. So they need to drop their prices and get in some of their small cars. Manny also have bad charging speeds.
@@n.ringheim7720 I think the issue is the sales are relatively small but the overheads are relatively large so they have to make good margin per car.
" North American and European sales of Japanese cars seems to be good for now"
They're leading the market in the US since they're catering to the 90% not buying EVs.
Its ludicrous that the share market is treating this like nothing happened. Like just another day in the office... They've lost the China Market for good, and they are going to lose the Australian market, developing markets and Europe soon enough. I am surprised that people are not dumping Toyota and Honda shares like a bank run. It shows you that humans are foolish collectively.
They just believe what they are told to and power of 💵 is still convincing. The worst is for the serious and smaller distributors who were giving trust to Honda, Nissan, Subaru or Toyota and have had family businesses in the third generation already. Trust is the most valuable thing on earth and if you are about to loose you loose everything.
They'd better reinvent themselves fast.
I tried to short suzuki . It did not go well for me
@@hokeywolf3416 too late already.
@@stevenjones916 still have 18% is not comforting enough mate, it's down from 25% just 3 years ago.
That 7% shrink means almost 2 million sales a year gone. Consider the whole Japanese domestic market is only around 4.5 mil a year. When VW was experiencing a way milder decline a couple years back in China at least it spent huge on EV now they have a full army of I.D EVs ready in the market.
What are the Japanese manufacturers gonna do to hold the 18% from further decline?
same thing happend to chinese smartphone market before. Samsung was the #1 Android vendor in china. but chinese quickly caught up, offered almost the same quality for much less money, and pushed Samsung out of their market.
Samsung pushed themselves out by sueing the Chinese customers who reported Note 7 catching fire.
Nobody is refusing Japanese cars from a PR stand point in China, yet. So they may come back after they get their cars up to date, unlike Samsung.
@@byhyew bad PR gets forgotton soon. that is not the point.
the point is competition and that is where japanese fail. even their traditional cars have fallen behind Koreans.
nobody believes in a comeback of japanese electronics. what reason is there for the japanese car industry to catch up?
@@nxtphone4696 Yup decades ago Japanese tech companies along with Japanese auto maker used to rule the market but slowly and steady Korean and Chinese companies ate the market from Japan
in smartphone markey, the better examole is Nokia, ICE vs EV is like Nokia phone VS Apple& Android
Hi Sam, you can build a similar story with Europe, mainly Germany and France. As for the disappearance of cell phone manufacturers, it is a question of managers. All the companies Nokia, Motorola, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry have been massacred by their managers, too arrogant or too shy to invest. Their problem is that they are no longer entrepreneurs, that they are far from their teams, that they are risk averse, that they are busy managing daily problems, that they are blinded by details. This is the problem of all former car manufacturers. A clue: all of them are still developing new versions of their engines today. Another clue: 90% of their new products in 2022 were based on internal combustion or hybrid engines. We are entering the exponential section of the technology S-curve, so it is too late to react, the game is over.
As always they're fighting the last war. After all that's what they know. Remember they've not been sanctioned and sanctions like they say makes you paranoid and paranoia makes you stronger. Just ask the the Russian and Chinese
I myself was working in that industry back then and I can confirm what you said is true. There are so lacking of innovations and the people who manage it think they know better.
Actually, Mercedes decided to terminate all development of combustion engines for person cars over a year ago and I believe that is already happened. For large cars it is different but also here they have set a end date. So at least Mercedes are trying...
They are managers not owners.
We're clearly on the same page: I just released a more general video laying out the case that ALL gas powered car sales are in jeopardy right now. You're pointing out that Japan is in the worst shape is super sad, but hardly surprising. If people watch this a year from now, it'll all seem obvious but no one seems to "get it" yet today.
Justa thought, and i dont know the answer to this, is there a possibility of a set of "last gasp" purchasers of ICE vehicles by the "holdouts" that might be a substantial portion of car buyers, perhaps 20-30% of people who have taken in all teh anti-EV FUD and so will want to stick with ICE and thus will buy one near the end of the European (and to come Chinese and maybe US) cut-offs 2030-2035 so they can keep an ICE car for the next 15 years or so?
Of course that still means 70-80% of car buyers who will hang on their ICE or buy an EV, in either way leading to crippling drops in sales.
So I guess either way, yeh they are screwed.
We THE WORLD'S PEOPLE need to start fight our governments BEFORE they start "BAILING OUT" these IDIOT care companies who said "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS" and "WE WILL KILL TESLA" and then proceeded to do NOTHING >>> NOTHING To prepare for the future, which is approaching quickly. WE NEED TO START FIGHTING NOW NOW OR they will pump billions into the STUPID COMBUSTION ECONOMY WITH OUR TAXES ! !!
“The tyranny of DE-scaling”, yes, is a good way to say it. Thanks, to both of you for these staid-but-true reports. Spot on.
Just finished watching your fine video prior to this one
The economies of scale that have benefitted Toyota for many years also operates as production volumes decline, except that a decline in volumes exposes the diseconomies of scale that apply at lower production volumes.
This was a really good one Sam. Looking forward to your video on China and how hard it is to register an ICE.
Plug-in Hybrids are the best of both worlds & Toyota has amazing ones.
Why do I want to pay the same amount of money on an ICE from previous gen, while I can pay the same money on the newest gen of EVs from many brands especially in China. It is just simply not working logically.
The irony of it all is the CEOs can always just go cry in their yachts and reminisce about the good times. Heavy is the head that wears the crown...right. I wish more industry leaders would be open minded and make decisions based on extensive information.
There are 4.5 million Japanese gas cars sitting in China‘s dealers lot, they won‘t be able to sell them after July 1st due to new emmision stardard 6B which was announced in 2016 by the Chinese government 7 years ago. Japanese car manufacturers choose to ignore the regulation change and they are going to pay a huge price. Porsche’s current models meet the new emmision standaed 6B already thus they have no 'problem.
Interesting report as usual. Last evening I was told by friends on the Central Coast, NSW that they had ordered a Toyota Corolla hybrid and it has taken them 8 months and counting to get delivery. Of course they bag me out for buying a Tesla (which I got in 2 weeks in Oct 21- inventory; my son got his M3 in 4 months delivery), but they are outlaying for old tech it has taken almost 12 months to get. When r people going to realise this is a revolution and Toyota is heading for their Kodak moment. Further, why is Toyota pushing the Hydrogen Mirai in Australian media? There are only 2 public access hydrogen filling stations in the whole of Australia...this is insanity!
You're missing that the same thing is going to happen in the EU and Northern America. It's not about brands, it's about consumers choosing electric. And the Chinese companies lowering the ev price. And this all accelerating the battery improvements.
The Japanese companies are dead men walking
The majority of American buyers do NOT want BEV, dude. Get a grip.
@@trungson6604That's because EVs are very expensive in this market. But it won't last long and when those EVs with below 20k dollar price tag enter the north American market we'll see.
I always thought that Toyota would be ahead of the game since they were making hybrids before anyone else. How hard would it be, I thought, for them to enlarge their battery element to exclude the ICE element of their hybrids? I guess they went for some kind of quick buck by not accepting the possibility of an EV switch world wide.
I would say Nissan has the most unbelievable failure. I've owned my Nissan Leaf for many years and still love it. At that time it is the most popular and no-brainer choice in the market. They foresee the future and made the right decision way ahead of their competitors, invested in EV production, and yet failed to compete in the market now.
You spot on. Japan moves very slowly in their decision making. Don't understand why. Contrary to China, the business people make decision quickly and they're gutsy. Very gutsy. This is why Japan is in trouble.
@@SunriseLAW
Japan is no longer the leader in TVs anymore. They had NFC before most countries. Look where Sony is at now. They don't have dominant smartphone market share.
You need to look up "Galapagos syndrome"
@@SunriseLAW
"I know, but some of the companies are still really big."
Really big does not mean they can't go bankrupt or be acquired by some other company.
**See: Blockbuster Video, Bear Sterns, Sears, etc**
See the video: "Top 10 Largest Compaies by Market Cap" by Ranking Charts. Japan **had** SIX companies at the top 10 in 1991.
The Japanese brain is not flexible enough, it is difficult to change, Japan used to have 6 leading industries in the world, but now there are almost none. Japan built in Vietnam high-speed rail 16 years did not move an inch, rotten to this day.
E.V. I watched this x3 times......& yeah holy smokes Q1 statics!
Excellent presentation, thank you boss
I'm not writing the Japanese off. They are a brilliant people, tremendous engineers, with unique attitudes toward creating and finishing products. I expect them to be EV competitive sooner rather than later.
I agree that japanese companies could save themselves by adapting and innovating but they are definitely on the back foot as far as this information has revealed
The Japanese work on consensus while the Chinese are very individualistic. Look at the great entrepreneur, many are Chinese origin, it is in their blood.
Something was wrong with Japan after the 1990s. The Koreans took over TV semiconductors and shipbuilding, to name a few. Japan used to invent the cassette tape, VCR, and LCD screen better than America.
Japan lost innovation after America raised the value of the yen, which could be a factor. Japanese people are very polite and clean. They like creative cartoons. But they are enormous saver compared to Americans.
Japanese culture is similar to Chinese Confucius and Zen, plus Buddla. Chinese people are more assertive and forceful. America clamped down on Japanese growth in the 1990s and now in China. China fought back, and the Japanese didn't. Japan's smaller size compared to China is an issue.
Japan could be a friend of China, but she aligns with the US mainly because of its military base. Japan would have been a good choice if China hadn't risen. Now, China would not be a friend of any country if America's military were on its land. What we are seeing is Chinese soft power. At least China is not using military power like America would.
One answer would be for the Japanese brands to team up on two or three shared platforms to start, especially if they don’t believe in EVs this would be a very cost-effective way to meet what they view as limited market demand (we all know there’s tons of market demand) but it’s mind-boggling that they’re not doing what Ford-VW are doing with the European Explorer for example… just silliness
I live in Canada. The only new electric car company is Vinfast. There are no Chinese auto companies at all. There is such a demand for affordable electric vehicles. But supply and choices are still a major issue. All legacy auto companies are in trouble. If and when the Chinese EV flood gates open… look out.
cheapest e car is a shitty chevy bolt at 40k 😂
We have Polestar and Volvo in Annapolis Royal. More of them than e-Konas or Teslas.
No worry. My fellow countryman won't set foot in us and Canada for a long while
No one else anywhere is providing this important information. Some of the automaker news is a very worrisome but everyone needs to be aware of it!
There are a few Japanese companies that will buck the trend and do well. Panasonic is one of the major manufacturers of EV batteries, thanks to their partnership with Tesla.
Interesting to look a year later. Toyota is doing OK
the thing about Japan is their companies come together during crisis, I strongly believe in 10 years there will be lot of mergers and acquisitions in japan car industry and there will be only 3 major carmakers left in Japan. For instance, Toyota can merge with Suzuki and Mazda and create a giant company that can weather any storm.
Yes, you are right about about their reaction in a crisis. But Toyota already partly or wholly owns so many of them anyway; and it is Toyota that has that world history leading bad debt. It's not going to end well for Japan.
Well, they’ll be in a bigger boat, but the boat is still heading for the iceberg.
I don't think Mergers are going to accomplish a thing..................Paul
Toyota will only be here in 10 years with lots of govt bailouts, and they will be a small fraction of current size...a small leaky ship!
Not sure if Kodak were to merge with Fujifilm would have made any difference then. Buying up or take a significat stake in struggling China EV companies probably makes more sense.
. 1:27 Very nice chart 👌 👏👏👏
I asked for charts, you did so and you are getting Better at making them 👍
Dear Electric Viking. I think your channel is excellent. You have so much information about the Electric car industry. Thanks for your efforts ❤
Sending love from St. Louis (Missouri) mate! You rawk!!! Keep your chin up as always!
Japanese carmakers' dilemma is complex. EV involves 3 major technologies: traditional car, software, and battery. They are only good at the first, and need to master the last two as quickly as possible. Transition is very expensive. That's why only Tesla and highly committed Chinese new players fare better, so far
And Tesla are making a profit on each sale as well as charging equipment and storage. So far not relying on repairs. Past vehicle industry is based on servicing, parts and repairs. If you can't make money on an EV sale, you don't have the time to get to the repair era.
Also if they convert to fast to EV they loose all their investment already made and they still making large profits selling gas engines
A review of Tesla's development history shows that it is China's well-developed electric vehicle industry system that has made it successful. If Tesla had not set up a factory in China, it would have been stuck in production hell for a long time and could not have quickly opened up a gap with other competitors。It is also because of China's well-developed electric vehicle supply chain that Chinese brands are able to iterate quickly, leaving all other countries behind.
@@ShareGoodThings11 Agreed. Chinese new players entered the field around 2014 and started developing the supply chain. Tesla joined in 2018 and brought some technologies. Benefits are mutual. Obviously BYD worked on it even earlier and developed its own supply chain
Japanese carmakers simply cannot compete with Tesla and Chinese automakers on making BEVs. That ship has already sailed. What they can do now is to make Hydrogen Combustion engines hybrids to compete with BEVs. That's what they are good at. H2 stations will be built for H2 trucks and buses that H2-cars will be able to fill-up also.
Just a lot of marketing for energy companies to build H2 stations and for people to buy their "self-charging" H2-powered Zero-Emission hybrids.
Toyota should press ahead with Hydrogen Combustion engine with hybrid power train that is already perfected and proven to be highly profitable. People will simply fill up with Hydrogen the same way they have been filling up with gasoline. Leave the complexity issue for the experts to solve. We will just enjoy motoring the same way we used to.
On 2022, Toyota sold 14M out of the 66M vehicles sold worldwide, BYD sold 1.8M and Tesla.sold 1.4M.
Ie, Toyota outsold Tesla.10:1 in 2022.
In Australia, Toyota out sold Tesla 11:1
The only way I can explain Japan's failure to proceed with EVs, after a promising start 15 or so years ago, is that maybe Toyota has a significant shareholding of oil companies, who offered the decoy of hydrogen power while badmouthing EVs to the board and executives.
This is an interesting possibility, because if true, Toyota's failure will not only lose them (the oil companies) money but will signify the end of oil's market to car owners. It may precipitate failure of some oil giants and create an avalanche toward EVs. Japan's economic collapse will be just a side story. The rolling failures of oil, some of them US-based, may indeed bring about another depression and in any case will remove the USA as the world's biggest economy.
As a side note to that, it would be ironic if Mexico had to enforce its borders to stop unemployed US auto workers going to Mexico to seek work with Tesla.
I think Elon is more likely right than wrong.
@David Inkster Toyota looks at the Chinese automotive market as they see the US.
Those two markets are very different.
The US is dominated by the automobile. China is not.
In the US getting around without owning a car is extremely difficult. In China it is not.
China, therefore is served by the needs of electric vehicles. Those cars are very useful for getting to and from work, for going to the markets and other chores. They don't need their cars to go from Chongxing to Beijing to Xian. They have high speed rail to handle those things. And when traveling between those cities there is a plethora of mass transit available.
Going from Los Angeles to Chicago to New York is a much different matter. There is no such thing as high speed rail in the US. And Los Angeles mass transit is very rudimentary compared to anything in China. Chicago is more similar to LA than any Chinese city. NY has a decent mass transit system but when compared to Beijing?? It is not even a contest.
Japan bases all its major decisions on its major market, the US. And they have figured out the US won't abandon their gasoline powered cars for EVs. Hydrogen is a different story.
So Japan waits for hydrogen to become big. But even in hydrogen, they trail badly. Hyundai has them beat badly. Why won't Japan turn their nation's scientific prowess to making hydrogen useful? Using carbon nanotubes as a catalyst for generating electricity? Getting off the exotic and rare metals such as platinum, palladium and iridium for converting hydrogen to water and generating electricity. Trust me, Hyundai is going all in on hydrogen. The Koreans are very big in battery technology also.
Japan has been paralyzed. By their history of imperialism, their refusal to apologize for it and then they make the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear meltdowns a reality. They don't even have the scientific expertise to deal with the nuclear meltdown.
Japan has been described as a killer whale by Colonel Douglas MacGregor. It is a broken down nation with nothing good to offer to anyone. They are poisoning the environment in which we all live.
And the Japanese are really expected to lead Asia?? They will trail the rest of Asia. China will lead Asia. The Koreans will be second. Japan won't even be third. They will trail nations like Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand. Just watch. It is coming.
Oil companies will change, but only when they absolutely have to. They have the ability to finance almost any purchase of renewable energy technology or whole companies. They will do this when they start seeing big declines in their revenues, which won't be for some time. Also keep in mind, they are not just in the oil and gasoline business, they are also the chemical and plastics behemoths of the world. Those oil based chemicals and plastics have almost no replacements and will support the oil giants for a long time. It will take a century for us to develop non-oil based plastic materials and maybe not even then.
@@davidharris2147 Philippines? Are you serious?
Toyota put all there eggs into a fuel cell concept. They made the best one in the world. They just failed to see how many nations would have hard carbon rules.
They'll just push an even higher increase of plastic production.
Love your work. This podcast is a little simplified. Yes the Chinese have created an environment to say it nicely challenge foreign car makers. When you look at Japanese bond rates (around 0.4%), things are not so dire for Japanese firms. You have to give them credit their business model of waiting till proven technology arises has served them well in past. I think they will be a late adopter and reduce investment to proven long term technology. At this point are solid state batteries or salt batteries going to be in the future. I know for myself, I am going to buy one more ice vehicle, hoping a battery comes along with lower insurance costs and better performance in New England (US).
The problem is that legacy automakers can't start late and then leapfrog to the front, because designing EVs and autonomous vehicles requires radically different designs. In order to get to a decent design, they needed to fail a couple times to realize what is needed with EVs and AVs, and that takes time, and it takes time to build the supply chain. Tesla learned a lot with each iteration, and the startups like Rivian, Lucid, NIO and Xpeng show how hard it is to get it right, even when starting with a clean sheet design.
Inside five years nobody at all will want any cars that are not full ev.
You assume that people can afford a new EV.
@@granttaylor8179 no , new evs will become cheaper and way more plentiful, besides I am not saying other cars won't be around still , but that new cars will only be getting sold as evs.
@@granttaylor8179 this “can’t afford an EV” is getting old now. There are many decent second hand EVs on the market now here in the UK, that will only increase in the coming years. That, combined with the falling new prices over the next couple of years, brings affordability to the market. Not everyone can afford a new ICE car either.
In three years, we won’t be talking about this any more, only the collapse of the ICE market in Europe and the UK.
Disruption happens gradually then suddenly. We have passed the gradually phase…
@@ouethojlkjn we are at the knee of the curve, things are going to take off quickly.
Inventive and forward thinking are Chinese businesses people mindset. It’s difficult to compete, but good luck to find it out
It must feel great that a dedicated guy in a hotel room can analyze the car market decline better than Reuters
simply because media now are fake news - they dont tell the truths or real news
Fun Fact: In California, only 17% of drivers have access to a private charger in their garage or driveway. That means 83% will have to use a public charger. There simply isn't enough property to build these charging stations.
Not true.
@@scottbreseke716 I should have book marked the site I found this on but if you look around in the cities, there are apartments and condos everywhere and more being built, the vast majority do not have private charging. However, there are public charging sites going in everywhere but the article I read only applied to private charging, which includes most EV owners with houses. Furthermore, there are large residential areas in Los Angeles where parking is very difficult to find, especially in the evening. Imagine putting a charger out front of your house, it would be gone by morning.
No matter how much one loves the Japanese people, it seems their automotive industry is going down and probably dragging their national economy with it, due to their reluctance to adapt when everyone else is turning to EVs.
due to zero creativity 😂
Love your work. My 2 cents worth of comments: when I was a young electrical engineer we had to attend continuing professional development courses. One of them was Risk Management, and the lecturer opened with which country produces the best co-pilots ? Answer was Australia, because we have little deference to authority, and Aussie co-pilot would rapidly question the pilot’s judgement. Which country has the worst co-pilots ?, take your pick of many Asian nations who can’t criticise authority. So Japan’s reluctance to manufacture EVs and China building up 1000’s of unwanted cars dumped in open fields will not get challenged by middle management anytime soon.
Great video and I understand your stance. I think your biggest oversight is what has happened with other Japanese failed exports. If they fail to export, that may not mean the demise of the Corporation. Many Japanese companies thrive on the home market demand only. There is a massive backstory to support that claim and it goes back decades, but my opinion is that the Japanese car market will shrink, not collapse.
The birth rate in Japan is very low. Their population is collapsing.
This is an interesting remark. I have read that the Japanese plan was to go hydrogen based on the premise that they would have abundant nuclear electric. This would work for the domestic market but they would struggle to export those cars unless other countries did likewise, which would seem unlikely. Your theory that they could thrive without exports might explain their thinking.
@@lemongavine Birth rates worldwide have be in decline for the last 70 years. Japan will not collapse for that single reason.
justinv2 • Yes, first it will shrink, and in the end it will collapse.
People will not wait for the japanese to catch up. People buy EV now and in this decade, and they will keep their EVs for decades. Therefore, in 2030 only the EV car manufacturers who build the best, the cheapest, the most useful, and the most reliable EV models, will survive.
There will be no room for any new EV manufacturer after 2030 unless something fantastically inovative will come up, either in the whole electric theory ( a new and revolutionary "electric motor" concept ) or in the battery technology domain ( which is quite possible ).
Love you talk.
Thru' out the changes in the industry have many changes.
Companies should adopt & adapt to changes in order to survive.
We have seen shift in various tech.
Like mainframe to PC.
Phone, etc to mobile phones.
We have seen companies like IBM, Nokia, Xerox, Kodak, etc vanished.
Products such as Cassette, CD, VHS tapes, walkman, turntables, radios, etc are replace by new product
Tech changes is inevitable, but cause a recession by these new innovation is ridiculous.
You must be from another planet.
Japan has lost its competitive edge long time ago, it begun with their electronics, automotive is just the last nail in the coffin.
Great info. Appreciate what you do.
I appreciate that!
European governments might be willing to put tariffs on Chinese EVs if they threaten European workers. The best stratagy for the Chinese EV makers might be to build EV factories in Europe as Tesla did with the Berlin Giga factory.
Any kind of tariffs like that is incredibly dangerous, and will just be applied. Right back by China. However, depending on how strong the lobbying is, it may well happen in any case.
Thank you. Great overview of things mob has no clue about. Good luck!
Both Tesla and BYD have no combustion history. This seems to be a competitive advantage. They don't need a transformation.
BYD made ICE vehicles up until just recently, and they continue to make hybrids...
Nissan is on point with the Sakura - all they need is ramp up production.
I think there is a plan to transition the Japanese economy into weapons production, but with South Korea at the lead position.
Lol, it seems JP and SK ain’t interest in improving their economy but want to pick a fight with their largest reading partner……….
@@eggheadegghead Hyundai profit is growing and now bigger than Toyota this year 😂 where is China? 😂 China is wrong fight with Hyundai and can't catch up 😂
I am afraid except for Tesla the situation in the US is similar for Ford, GM & Stelantis.
Japanese carmakers are a big part of the Canadian economy. Their demise will put too many Canadians out of work..😟
Canada needs a Tesla Gigafactory.
No worry, we are on a island call US + Canada. We will make the last stand for ICE technology. It is funny that the industry doesnt seems like realizing what happning around the world.
GAC, that is what my dog does when she drinks water too fast.
I am really fearing that we face the same fate here in Germany. Only Mercedes give some hope with their luxury segment and the EVs they already have....
Germany will fare better. It's a bigger home market, and already sells EVs. Only need to increase efficiency and get costs down
European Union saves German auto industry.
@@PeterXiao1 "Only need to make a compelling car with software that actually works and that people actually want to buy"
@@robertbarnes8327 The VW ID series is on the road and seems to be working and selling well. Improvement is of course always needed
Germany is screwed also. They can't produce competitive cars without affordable energy coming from Russia.
It's hard to believe that Toyota will ever go down. They have a pretty decent fan following.
very informative video - great work here. incredibly sad for the future of Japan though.
Perhaps what hit Nokia (smartphones came from eg Apple where Nokia top management stayed and focused on historical products) is hitting eg Toyota (vs Tesla) as well....
Love your channel Sam. I'm making some big changes in my life because like you I see this train coming down the tracks. Its going to be an economic disaster for those who are not paying attention.
Sadly it's going to be an economic disaster for everybody.
Rather chilling, but unfortunately accurate, outlook. So many companies are screwed.
I believe due to Akio Toyoda pushing for the Japanese industry to invest so heavily into hydrogen tech, he has taken a less public role because the waste of all these resources is becoming painfully obvious. Toyota had a stake in Tesla. They had am electric RAV4 ages ago, but cancelled it all. Now, Japanese builders are scrambling and it was Akio and fellow leaders who laid the ground work for this mess Japan is facing.
The ICE market is dropping off a cliff. There is this strange idea that EVs will not be sold around the world because some nations are not ready. What I think they ignore is solar panels and large battery backup is all that is needed. Many nations would love to import less oil. Many consumers would love to have no need to visit a gas station. The sun is a free resource. Wind is a free resource. EVs require less parts, less work to keep going. This means from poor to rich, consumers on all levels will find EVs appealing.
The other thing that Japanese leaders seem to have not thought through is pace of innovation and improvement. When a technology has not had massive resources put into it, that means it is under developed. That also means the amount of change will be high in a short period of time. ICE has been well funded for decades, thus why 100 million dollars in R&D of ICE does not get the kinds of improvement $100 in EVs gets. As a bonus, some of the key tech for EVs is used is many other industries. Batteries power modern life for most of the world. It is the battery tech that has helped to unleash the EV change upon the world. As much as some politicize EVs as a woke thing or lefty thing, it was need for bettter batteries in phones and other mobile tech that got this wave of EV demand to be possible.
I am waiting for the day when Akio and other top Japanese business leaders hold a press conference like Mitsubishi did, where they admitted they failed and apologize for how their actions have hurt so many. Not that it will save the pain Japan has coming, but until they acknowledge their mess, it is hard to fix things.
No later than this morning, I came across a YT channel praising the farsightedness of Akio Toyoda!!! Some people are definitely in for a painful awakening!
Hybrid car with hydrogen combustion engine is the best path for Japan because it requires the least investment and the least amount of debt. Toyota already makes millions of hybrids yearly, so switching to hydrogen is easy, just change the fuel tank. Also, switching from hybrid to plug in hybrid just put in a bigger battery pack. See how easy it is?
@@trungson6604Before they could sell one hydrogen burning car, they would have to spend a couple of billion dollars installing hydrogen fueling infrastructure. It's something they've needed for ten years already but have still not done. This says a lot.
Gasoline burning hybrids are going to have a short shelf life going forward. In another ten years they will be either banned or facing imminent bans.
@@trungson6604 Have to disagree because EVs havevfewer parts and people already electrical outlets all around. Hydrogen vehicles are complex to build, hydrogen stations are expensive, and have issues as well. California is already shutting down some hydrogen stations due to the costs and problems.
If EVs get solid solar power built into the vehicles, they will basically recharge themselves.
When you look at the complexity of hydrogen or classic hybrid, they both fall short of EV. Ownership is simpler for owners, costs are lower for operation, and we are seeing retail prices dropping below ICE.
Not a single dime or minute more of time should be spent on hydrogen. Battery tech, solar tech, EV charging tech, and overall EV tech is getting rapid returns on investment and are helping consumers and nations to break away from oil addiction while improving life.
@@kevtheobald There is massive investment in green hydrogen worldwide to replace fossil fuel. Eventually, hydrogen will be available everywhere just like natural gas now. Don't worry about complexity, leave that for Toyota.
The best solution is PHEV.
For example (with intensive):
NIRO BEV (Comfort) = 42,000 euro
NIRO PHEV (Comfort) = 34,000 euro
NIRO HEV (Comfort) = 31,000 euro
Scenario: 8000 km/year - urban and 4000 km/year - outside city.
NIRO PHEV has enough autonomy for driving one day in the city.
Consumption:
- petrol:
Urban = 7liters/100km;
Outside city = 6 liters/100km;
- electric:
Urban = 13kWh/100km;
Outside city = 16 kWh/100km;
Prices:
petrol - 2 euro/liter; electricity - 0.2 euro/kWh;
Costs per year:
PHEV = 688 euro;
BEV = 336 euro;
HEV = 1600 euro;
You need to drive for 22 years the BEV to make the 8,000 euro difference between BEV and PHEV.
You need to drive for 3.28 years to make the 3,000 euro difference between PHEV and HEV.
You need to drive 8.7 years to make the 11,000 euro difference between and BEV and HEV.
I think what will happen is EV's will get to about 50% market share and then plateau.
dam you are a genius with no facts 😂
You're probably right. Toyota is smart, why rush when people aren't rushing out to buy EVs. People still would rather have hybrids... and people in Japan don't buy anything but Japanese cars.
Why?
Why plateau?, because they don't make the same financial sense in a lot of countries. $10-20k for an EV? try that in Europe and let me know how you get on, and the infrastructure is pitiful, not to mention cost of electricity.
Yes, just like digital cameras plateaued at 50%. That's why Koday still sells so many film cameras.
Love this long form video. (Before sleeping/ napping) 😊
It's so sad for Japan in what you're saying. I have a Nissan X-Trail (Rogue in U.S.) and I plan to keep her for as long as I can. I lived my whole life with the ICE and simply don't want to be without it. However, yes, the writing is on the wall. Hence, the next vehicle will be electric. The wave of electrification is just overtaking car sales going forward here in Thailand. BYD sales has overtaken Toyota in new sales ever since the Atto 3 model came out. It's a great combination of new energy-practicality-affordability. Before BYD, GWM could'nt do it with their ORA suite of EVs, even though there was wide spread talk about how cute and innovative it was. Well that offering was lacking practicality and the new kid on the block, BYD got it right. Now that everyone knows the right combination, a lot more new comers will make their offer. As of today, new factory commitments have come from GAC and Changan. It's definitely getting crowded fast abd I don't know what Japanese players are going to do to hold on to their majority share of the market.
In Thailand, BYD sales has not overtaken Toyota. Toyota still unrivaled.
Thailand Q1 2023, the leader remains Toyota with 84,576 sales (+3.6%) followed by Honda at 26,492 (-13.7%), Ford at 14,039 (+36.9%) and Mitsubishi with 13,041 registrations (-15.5%).
MG secures 5th position with 7,637 sales (-20.4%), in front of Mazda at 7,179 (-34.4%) and Nissan with 6,047 sales (-33.8%).
BYD rises 27 spots into 8th with 5,578 registrations, followed by Suzuki with 4,463 sales (-38.7%) and Mercedes closing the top 10 with 4,316 registrations (+18.7%).
告诉你一个更震惊的事实，Atto 3只能算中国电动车中比较低品质的一款。还有很多未在泰国发售的中国电动车在各项指标上远超Atto 3 。
Canada here, buying a toyota is still painful. Have to wait one year for any hybrids and makeup $5000 more
It's easy for you all to tell Toyota to quickly switch to EV. But the reality is going to EV for Toyota is gonna bleed more money for Toyota as most EV maker are bleeding money making EV except BYD and Tesla. If Toyota is going full EV, it's gonna bleed even more money and worsen the situation.
Not if Toyota licenses Tesla technology. Elon has offered. Several times. And Nokia Toyoda just sneered. Nice nepo baby. Pulled the plug on grandad’s brilliant creation.
However, Toyota sells very well in the global market
Love the channel and I learned a lot of the video however most of these percentages aren’t for EVs it’s for plug in vehicles. PHEVs and EVs make up the 30% market share. So if Toyota just pivots to making more of their PHEVs which have some of the best range in the world than they should be fine. It’s more a matter of how maneuverable they can be. Hopefully they release the Tacoma EV soon and speed along their other EVs.
I think that’s what the Japanese auto manufacturers would like to believe mate. But they’re in absolutely dire straits.
Possibly your best video ever!
Even before all of this EV transition, I thought that Japan was in trouble from the competition coming from S Korea and China. Japan would go bust anyway but now with this EV thing, it will be much, much sooner. And most of that is their own damn fault. Xenophobia and the lack of forward-thinking or risk-taking is the root cause of Japan's decline. Sure they are great at copying and improving designs but only their Prius was ever revolutionary or original.
If making a dependable reliable great resale vehicle were as easy as copying why DidntAmericans follow the Japanese example?
I live in Japan. I tried to buy a new Toyota may 2023 as I live in heavy snow country with no access to charging, so require fuel. It's impossible, every single model I enquired about, there was either a 5 year wait list or the model is unavailable due to sudden safety regulation changes. It's absolutely bizarre, I don't have time to see what Nissan or Subaru can or cannot sell right now, so asked the dealer to call me once orders open for the 2024 prado desiel GR.
OK Electric Viking, I have thought you were telling B/S as we say here in NZ, but the more I have decided to question your logic etc with my seriously good and modest brain! And to my surprise, a lot of what you say is true, and the rest which I haven't processed yet is highly likely to be true as well.
Ok so we will drink your beautiful Red Wines if you buy our beautiful white wines?
This scene was predicted some years ago by Elon, when the sale of EV up to a critical numbers,
other car manufacturers will be in big trouble.
It would be a crying shame if the major Japanese automakers go under, but one would have to believe it would be the result of their shortsightedness, I have owned a few Hondas and loved them, I would be very sad to see them go.
They won't go under. In a couple of years the climate idiocy will be just canceled when the politicians start to see the impact in their wallets.
every company has a life cycle
Japan’s economy and resource will be finish soon. I am from SKorea 🇰🇷
I think you are from china. You said you love nio.
Wumao
Time to revisit and update the Altman Z Score for the top 5 legacy manufacturers.
The Rising Sun will be known in the future as "The Falling Sun".😂😂😂
I wouldn't revel in the misfortune of Japan; have you seen what economically desperate countries can do? Quite a lot of people, countries and companies are dependant on Japan for their technology, whether hardware or software.
@@theproffessional9 we all have our time on earth. Japan, USA and Europe had their good time but now it is Asia, Latin America and other parts of the world's time to shine.
Don't worry, BEV will soon saturate the market and the demand for pure BEV will crash!
@@theproffessional9
No, not that many. You still use a fax machine? Panasonic still sells them...
But a lot of the world including Australia don't like electric cars
First 😂 hi dad
hey jack
Toyota needs to push its most popular models. The wait time for a new landcruiser in Australia is ridiculous.
In Korea, Japanese cars are expected to gradually disappear from the global market as the era of electric vehicles approaches.
The problem with Japanese companies is that they can't cope with the changes of the times.
Due to the characteristics of Japanese companies, it is difficult for Japanese companies to survive in a rapidly changing world.
In the era of electric vehicles, Tesla and Hyundai-Kia are likely to become two-way systems.
Korean companies experienced China's retaliation against THAAD in advance and their share in China decreased from 10 percent to 1 percent.
Korean cars, like German and Japanese cars, have a low percentage of the Chinese market, so they are not hit hard.
In the West, other brands except Tesla and Hyundai-Kia of Korea are suffering from their own electric vehicle platform or battery technology.
Currently, a large-scale factory of Korean battery company LG Samsung SK is being built in the U.S., and lithium-ion batteries are not available without Korean companies.
@@PaektuMountain American research is strong. I'd expect superior battery technologies to come out of Tesla and other US labs
China’s BYD is leading in global EV industry
@@mjatonyperry8508 I don't agree. The US never lets BYD take over the world. The same is true of Europe. The automobile industry is different from smartphones.
Even smartphones, Chinese brands do not sell well outside the Chinese market, except for low-cost products.
@@PeterXiao1 The lithium-ion battery sector was virtually occupied by Korean companies. They have a lot of patents.
Ford, GM, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, Stellantis and Volkswagen are all building joint battery plants with Korean battery companies.
There is currently no alternative except for Korean battery companies.
The LFP battery of a Chinese company is a temporary battery technology, and it has a fatal disadvantage that it is impossible to regenerated.
The LFP is also a fatal weakness, with a 50% reduction in mileage in winter
I'm retired and drive about 250 mi per week. My '03 Honda gets 20 mpg around town. $200 mouth in gas! That's a good chunk of a car payment.
Nissan can rely on their dedicated platform CMF-EV (Renault-Nissan) and CMF-BEV (renault 5 / 4, Nissan Micra)
Ahahahahah KODAK COLLAPSE . . . . . love this phrase on many levels, please make this a Kodak moment follow up vid when it happens😜
I fully agree that legacy ICE makers are doomed, but if the reason is better efficiency of EVs than ICS it will not mean a global recession, rather it will mean growth as overall transport gets cheaper.
Well done Sam. You tell 'em.
Toyota’s largest plants are in the United States not Japan.
Thanks!
Welcome!
Great video. It’s an Apple killing Nokia scenario happening again
imo repair is also a part of the vehicles life cycle. if mechanics and parts are too fragmented then i dont think the chinese cars will even survive in legacy areas. we're seeing the ramifications of new EV's on the roads getting into accidents. how much they cost to repair and who has expertise in the field. many of the cars are a complete write off from the inability to repair. insurances are starting to adjust to that and are charging an arm and a leg to insure such EV's.
My parents have a Toyota Prado and the tech is like death of a thousand cuts, I had to really go looking for simple fixes like how to stop the map disappearing which was extremely frustrating for my Dad in heavy traffic. The Tesla? The map is just the default, it ain't going anywhere unless you want it to and even then it acts like your background so every time you close setting adjustments or analysis you are back at the map.
My Mum was originally freaking out a bit when I fiddled with the map on a long continuous stretch of road, by zooming out to get a better idea where we were because she was worried she'd lose it and be unable to get the close up view back before the next corner, but the instant you get a new voice direction the map springs back to the original close up map setting we'd been using like a rubber band. It also has the icon you can press if there is no turns for a bit to make it spring back as well, which I did actually have to use because the next turn off was so far away. XD Which once Mum knew how things would react and got comfortable with it, she really, really liked that feature. No more disappearing maps!
So yeah good tech in vehicles _matters_ and people want something that is familiar and just works. Totally see why the Chinese market is going this way.