Do you believe the Seba predictions? ALL energy will be derived from solar/wind by 2030?! Give me the name of ONE company that can 1000x the OUTPUT of either solar or wind and you'll have me convinced. Otherwise, "no hooe in haides".
The only thing that could disrupt this is wars and dictators (singular, taken together). The only way to prevent this is to recover the authoritarian personality mindset. They will destroy us, even if we defeat them. They become that way by choosing to think angry thoughts and take no responsibility. Then THEY are angry and look for ANYTHING to be angry at, to escape responsibility. We can only recover them with love. If we fail to do that, they and their climate change will lead us to a new, dark age.
Yup, biggest load of bull I've heard. No data to support. Solar cannot support world's energy needs by 2030. Laughable. Nuclear power is definitely going to be needed over the next decade else the lights will go out! @kayakMike1000
But Apple overestimated its non-iPhone capabilities, like EVs, in 10 years. Now they do the same for AI as they only "promise" markeiting shortcuts & cannot compete with the Chinese in anything. 1 or 10 years is the same for China. Easy ;)
Nearly 30% of the transportation industry is shipping fuels around the planet. This is why the international transportation and distribution oligarchy is also obstructing electrification. They want to prevent switching to more efficient solutions because a huge part of their revenue is based on inefficiency.
Politics will be dirty. Central generation is dirt cheap. Distant renewables ARE dirt cheap. Rooftop PV electricity is dirt cheap. Grid electricity is expensive, and the grid is a massive infrastructure, a massive investment that needs cash flow. The grid value is huge and it needs the huge cash flow. But when the SUN SHINES, the grid cash flow is DEAD. 😮😮😮😮 When the BATTERY SUPPLIES when the sun doesn't shine, the grid cashflow is DEAD. EVs or BVs OVERSIZED BATTERY parked 23hrs every day and all night long are perfect for no grid electricity. The grid cashflow is DEAD.
Politics will be dirty. Central generation is dirt cheap. Distant renewables ARE dirt cheap. Rooftop PV electricity is dirt cheap. Grid electricity is expensive, and the grid is a massive infrastructure, a massive investment that needs cash flow. The grid value is huge and it needs the huge cash flow. But when the SUN SHINES, the grid cash flow is DEAD. 😮😮😮😮 When the BATTERY SUPPLIES when the sun doesn't shine, the grid cashflow is DEAD. 😮 EVs or BVs OVERSIZED BATTERY parked 23hrs every day and all night long are perfect for no grid electricity. The grid cashflow is DEAD.😮
private public partnerships. Corps are buying up the bankrupt gov'ts. Infrastructure and housing. Rent everything own nothing. The next digital banking system will be even worse then the last fraudulent one because .........well you know digital and controllable. Don't assume screw ups are not planned.
And the financialised private sector ability to suck the lifeblood out of everyone's productivity and income. Mixed economy forever with all banks/finance nationalised.
You underestimate the corporations' ability to screw everything up including government. As the USA in the 40s and 50s, and China now, show, doing things through government instead of corporations tends to work better. Privatizing industries almost always makes them more costly and less efficient, it's been shown again and again and again and again. Things like fashion and entertainment are great for private company production. Things like resource extraction, power distribution, etc tend to be done much better through public works.
@sandponics Because we allowed our weak ass dumbfuck leaders (who knowingly knew that they were being such) de-industrialize us and blow money on the stupidest of things... Hell, they make SURE we can't do a Moon landing anymore - as if these things are supposed to get harder as tech moves on (my ass)!
@sandponics In about 5,5 years when we can no longer pay the note holders and when _some of them note holders_ have LASER based offence military... No, it's FAR more complicated than that, even. You see, the Western "leaders" want us to all fall, otherwise, we'd all be nuclear powered (with advanced little mass produced nuclear reactors) and we'd be vastly MORE *industrial,* making better economy, etc. No... think tanks were really (???) too stupid to figure this out 🙄
@@AWildBard It was _recently_ released in _May_ (2014). TEV always necros old Tony Seba content & misrepresents its currency. Wutevz, I'm still watching. o/
He is not gonna gonna get everything right, for example his prediction about self-driving cars were off. We still don't have full autonomous self-driving cars. Notice how in his talk he said: 'self-driving and partially self-driving' or similar words.
There are currently 1.5 billion gas /diesel cars in the world. Stating that such cars will be obsolete by 2030 is ignorant. Car owners are not simply going to “junk” their cars for overly expensive EVs
The average age of the auto fleet in the US is 12 years. That means that cars last about that long. If you have to pay $100.00 to fill up your car every week as compared to $10.00 to charge your electric car and if you can buy an electric car for 5k, as he said in this video, then a lot of people will be forced into electric cars by their own greed. They wil simply stop driving their petrol cars because they're too expensive to use, and a lot of them will just sit without bwing used. You don't see many people riding their horse to work anymore. They're too expensive. People drive their cars to where they board their horses so that they can ride them just for fun. That's what'll happen with gas cars too. I've got a 1918 Buick model 45 that I never drive to work, I just take it out on nice summer days.
@@petervanderveen2340 The current average price of an electric car in the USA (circa June 2024) is $56k prior to rebates. The average car insurance cost for an EV car is > $300 per month. As of May 2024, EVs comprised 6.8% of car sales in the USA. When including PHEVs, the total is 8.5%. The “S-curve” has not arrived yet in the USA, for a variety of reasons: price, lack of an adequate charging structure, longevity of ICE cars (average life ~ 12.5 years), poor mileage of EV pick-up trucks when hauling loads, etc. I happen to be an EV car fan … but I am not going to run out and purchase an EV based upon future (and faulty) economic premises. Also, please do not label people as greedy. Most everyone makes economic judgements (what is in their own interests) … aka capitalism.
Gas and diesel car owners have no say , all are at the mercy of the government and EVs manufacturers. EVs will come into the market like flood pushing gas diesel cars into the garage. 😂
@@petervanderveen2340: That claim means you can't do math, re the first two sentences. If the average age is 12 years, then ROUGHLY, the average car stays on the road significantly longer than that, since MANY cars on the road are 1, 2, 3, ... 11 years old. I use about 150 gallons of gas a YEAR to drive 3000 city miles, pessimistically. (I'm retired and believe AGW is serious). If I get a Toyota HEV, I'll use more like 60 gallons a year. Even if gasoline gets to $20 a gallon, that's under a QUARTER of what you're claiming per week for gasoline cost average for me. At $5 a gallon (far more likely, at most on average, for years), someone can drive more like the 12,000 roughly average miles a year a US driver drives, with an HEV getting 50 MPG, that's 240 gallons a year costing $1200. Throwing around the worst possible case is as credible as flat earth theory, or green energy deniers claiming BEV's "will never work". It will take DECADES before all the HEV's are off the road, much less the PHEV's, at least for economic reasons. And given US politics, I think economics and not politicians will make that happen for the most part.
WOW !!! This is the most valuable, most important video I’ve seen this year. I had never heard of Tony Seba before. Thanks Electric Viking for bringing this man on to your platform. I owe you one. Sincerely, Pete
Same story on a micro scale: Without a home battery, you're only utilizing your solar PV panels by about 60%. With that additional power you can store in a battery you cover the night when you require less energy anyway. Interestingly, some governments offer financial incentives for solar systems only when homeowners also invest in a home battery. This is why Vehicle to Home/Grid capable EVs will be important too.
Lot of homeowners getting Energy Storage to get near net zero! Not Happy sending their free energy for utilities to give them pennies on the kWhs they produce. Utilities know majority of PV system owners will give avoided cost power to resale at multiple s to unaware masses🧐 Smart hybrid sys. owners will keep 99% while off-griders get keep all they need 🗽
nuclear is still the cleanest safest way to prduce cheap abudant power, solar is closing, wind is overhyper. I live near several massive wind farms and know the poeple working on them and maintaining them. They are expensive to maintain and dont prduce near the amount of power that is claimed. maybe some day wind will be better but today is not that day
Nuclear has never been economically competitive but has depended on subsidies for its whole history. A solar farm on the footprint of a nuclear power station produces more power ,comes online as soon as grid infrastructure reaches it,requires infinitely less maintenance, and is not a health hazard for its neighbors. Much much cheaper
Takes too long too build, decommissioning costs, liability if you are at war. Cheap whilst running, use spent waste, we need oil for plastics and other materials, unless all synthetic even EVs have reduction gear boxes. But yes the Energy age is upon us
Middle-aged Mike... You must really be in the Middle ages because nuclear is the most dangerous dirtiest most destructive so called "clean energy " there is it is not sustainability this is not something similar to fusion there is so much toxic waste that needs to be extracted from and where exactly are you going to dump all of the waste wrong you're going to dump it in areas such as a water supply fertile land & where there are poor people living that's where your precious nuclear waste is going. Fusion is the answer but fusion is years away . Sustainability wind wave solar and other forms of energy including geothermal are the way to go.
Already people all over the internet are reporting they pay nothing for fuel , by using EV's and solar panels but , ice fanatics still swear oil will never leave or run out 😂
Do you realize how many solar panels you would need to charge your Tesla to 80% in one day, and how much they would cost? My friends are reporting that they are paying almost as much to charge their Teslas at Superchargers as they paid for gasoline and not happy about it. Plus they pay a lot more for electric car insurance than they paid for ICE car. But EV fanatics still swear that powering EVs is free.
The petro chemical industry produces much more than fuel. All those plastics and rubber in your EV and you use in everyday life? (Probably much more than you believe) Produced by the PCI. Fun experiment... Try going 1 day without using plastic/rubber products...
All of these things seem so impossible, I also remember Reading about electric cars before they were on the road and the compact disc before it was invented and the cell phone. The cell phone when I was growing up was like a fantasy, something you see only in sci-fi movies.😅
@Harrythehun Right before the digital cameras came out or when they were really expensive at the beginning, I bought a very nice film camera 35 mm. It's sad because they're very expensive, beautiful lenses and everything, but they're pretty much useless now.
Years ago, before I needed glasses, I thought electric cars should be simple, but I only saw lead acid batteries, which were way too heavy - now Seba is talking about cheap, light batteries - perfect...
@@chrisheath2637 That is one of the weirdest "never gonna happen" things: there are a million other uses for batteries, and another million more would be there if the batteries were lighter or more powerful or cheaper so obviously there is big money to be made if you manage to develop a better battery. Yet everyone was only talking about EVs needing batteries.
Nokia definitely understood the potential for touchscreen phone disruption. They had functional prototypes years before Apple. Their management just decided to not invest in it because they could not see that it was not the phone but the ecosystem and apps that would make the money and would pull people in.
Apple did not invent the smart phone. Ford did not invent the car. Tesla did not invent the 3-phase generator and motor. Edison did not invent the electric lights. Only Marconi and Nobel made something from their own inventions.
Nokia is such a sad story for the reasons you state. Ironically, the best year of sales for Nokia was in 2008, the year after the iPhone was released. So Nokia would have likely been smug about things, only for the mobile phone business to be sold less than 5 years later to Microsoft and then disappear and be written off as a bad debt.
2050,I will be in my 90's definitely won't care. I will continue enjoying my ICE vehicles as long as I can. Remember they predicted peak oil in the 70's. Hey, people always adapt. You are making a mountain out of a mole hill.
When jobs get eliminated, governments will get decimated as well. Their tax base will disappear. Governments never want to spend less. They will think it's their responsibility to take on this issue. As they should. But there are a number of solutions to work around this issue. It's my view that governments almost always pick the solution that provides power to politicians and doesn't really provide a good or even the best solution to the people. Just my observation of history.
hmmm it does seem there is an opportunity for declining oligarchies to retrench their political influence on the politicians. Incumbents will have to duke it out in the free market, without the benefit of co-opted politicians, unless a case can be made for great efficiencies, money or providing the voter jobs. Tony doesn't address corruption, unforeseen events like war, societal mind control, environmental calamity - whether scripted or natural - nor the hidden government's plans. BlackRock owns everything. And the ever present possibility people will just give up. There's also a miraculous element at times.
Not really. Certainly not at the levels of today where most is wasted. Regulating the circular use of plastics to avoid the continued pollution by micro plastics in our oceans and food chain may see a very rapid decline in oil used in a more sustainable world 🌎.😊
@@malcolmrickarby2313 I thought recycling is a myth? When China stopped taking plastic waste from the west the truth about plastic recycling came to the light. It's just too expensive to separate and recycle the plastics.
Thank you for the awakening, the content was enlightening. FYI, Albert Einstein pushed on vegetarianism, while he was alive for environmental reasons, but now it looks like it will happen for economic reasons which falls in line with Milton Freedman's assertion “A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither; a society that puts freedom before equality will get a good degree of both.” Essentially, if a way is forced upon people they will fight it, if it is in their best interest and can make the choice freely, they will.
@sandponics Gas cars have computers too. In fact, my supervisor at work got a hydai gas instead of electric 2 months ago. It was in the shop for a week because the shop couldn't figure out why it wouldn't drive. Well, it was that stupid snaphot gizmo by the insurance company. It caused a short, and messed up everything.
So, industry will go, but cars will still be made, turbines will still be made... How does that work? Is this Seba guy in with the World Economic Forum?
Ideas don’t care when you discover them. Reality doesn’t care when it becomes. Smooth brains don’t hold either. You are welcome to your ignorance and only you can break its chains.
I agree with you on everything other than nuclear. No it's not obsolete. Even though it has a huge upfront cost. It's cheap to run after that. A nuclear power plant can last more than 60 years too.
Obviously the people on this page are sold to the cult. Oil,coal,natural gas and nuclear ,used wisely,will power us for a million years. Oil and coal are not made from fossils.
This is not thought through. For example, inFnland we don’t have a lot of wind during winter. It’s -25c in jan/feb and the sun is not up for more than a few hours per day. How do we keep warm? We have 40% nuclear and rest is wind, hydro, sun. And I imagine there are many similar countries in the Northern Hemisphere.
It displays how important this kind of information is, but how rarely it is presented to the masses. Tony Seba is remarkably accurate with his projections. Thank you for the video !!!
00:02 Industrial Age of energy and transportation will be over by 2050 02:20 Disruption from technology will impact jobs and industries 06:58 Clean disruption will revolutionize energy with cheap electricity 09:48 Next 15-20 years to be most disruptive in history 15:49 Technological disruptions follow S-curves, not straight lines. 18:20 The car and electricity caused a phase change disruption with ripple effects across society. 23:27 Transportation and energy disruption by technology and cost reduction 26:04 Transition to 100% solar wind and battery system is feasible globally 31:01 Precision fermentation disrupts traditional animal-based insulin and dairy industry. 33:39 The dairy industry collapse to start by 2025 due to economic reasons 38:53 Transition to super abundance and near zero cost in multiple sectors.
It makes the investing opportunity for those of us aware of it that much better. I guess it is time to update my resume too 😒. I hope it will at least be a wash.
As right as some of his insights are, the boundary of his analysis still are much to smal. This is typical for most people, involved into their relatively narrow topic, not seeing an even wider picture. His lenses seem to Analyse the monetary aspect the financial part to see options, tippingpoint and new technology's. That's what most people think of. But more fundamental is the energy question. What is the energetically return on investment in renewable. It's not yet clear, that in a system of renewable the energy surplus can provide also substitution for all the benefits of oil, More important. Techno industrial civilisation is a subsystem a total dependant subsystem of the ecosphere. And we are even depleting renewable biosphere in many areas dozens of times faster as it can regenerate. As long as he doesn't account also to this, his predictions may have some truth but ultimately can't show what's realy comming.
The very low birth and marriage rate success that if the borders are ever closed that the population will shrink naturally. The US will be the most impacted because it is the largest population that has a negative net worth in the world. The once strong middle classis is poorer than "poor"countries with the majority having a negative net worth that become generational since the poor and middle have nothing in clear assets to pass on to their kids, That has all happened since the 1970s.
This is something the pro-UBI folks don't seem to get. Let's say everyone is out of work; that means the Gov loses about $4T in income and payroll taxes. So then we tax all corporations at 100% - we'd get $2T back, but we are still $3T short (since we over-spend). So where does the UBI come from? This is basic napkin math, and the fact that Andrew Yang - a math genius - can't figure this out means he is either not smart or a grifter.
Thx for keeping us up on Tony Seba. I must comment that this transition, like the car from the horse, is huge and inevitable, however....... like in Brave New World, 1984 and other books, the transition can be short circuited by big , big money and big political power, creating a forced, totalitarian regime of global financial control, this is a real threat to progress away from fossil fuels, we must not allow it to happen..... however the two faces of the golden rule ( Do unto other as you would have them do to you , and evil : he who has the gold makes the rules ) are in conflict and the struggle of evil to remain in control cannot be underestimated. WE must go for the renewables and EV's and end the daily crush at the gas pump forever, that would put them out of business. Theodore
It's truly hopeless to convince people of this, many have tried: the problem with PV in comparison to hydrocarbons has been and always will be 1) energy density by mass and volume and 2) power distribution. Go ahead, give me your dislikes and vitriol - I don't care anymore.
A lot of the energy can be locally produced by solar panels and batteries. When the price will go down much more than it is today, everybody will be able to produce much of the energy they will need locally. And I don't think Precision Fermentation will require that much energy anyway. When energy will be much cheaper than today, energy will not represent a problem.
If processed food inputs become sourced from electricity and suger, then much of our agricultural land still in use will be monocropped to grow feedstock to create the required quantity of "sugar". For many people it will be possible, that every bit of food they consume...was extruded from a machine. So, not all awesome.
No, owing to the efficiency of the fermentation process, we only need 1% of the land area to provide the same product. Livestock are not efficient at all at producing meat.
O come on it does not sound so bad, corporations manufacturing your dinner. What are you a science denier. Look at how they saved us from covid, safe and effective, just make sure your booster shots are up to date and if not....well you are the problem. Fricken anti $cience people!! Sarcasm off.....ya creepy future. Intellectualism disguised as corporate propaganda.
@@keepitreal2902 the last study I saw on this subject was from the impossible meat labs (general term, not necessarily them specifically) admitting that they aren't even close to the efficiency of turning plants into protein and density of nutrition that animals are
This vlog is the best insight to our future, when ever I say to most people they all think it’s decades away, many dislike Elon hate him in some cases, this is the way to cull your friend list, totally agree with your comments 100%, wishing you and your family the very best wishes ,🙏🏻
Petroleum product refining and distribution is highly capital intensive and having just retired from a 47 year career in the petroleum business, it is my opinion that no oil company is going to make a major investment in their refineries, distribution facilities, and pipelines. Getting capital from upper executive management is all but impossible. Chances are that you wouldn't be able to get the permits anyway. The point is that as refining withers away, electricity is going to have to pick up the slack even though the grid is already suffering. Of course in California, we are use to getting less for more.
Our grid here in Europe must also be expanded, but much less than CA. No one here has HVAC @ home. No one has electric heaters. Only few have electric cooking, most use induction cooking. Just a few examples. Only the Germans are far behind with their grid.
The petroleum industry is going to experience a massive shift in justification for extraction. Previously, petroleum extraction was justified by fuel revenue, then all the other things made with fuel by-products were gravey money. But soon, the demand for fuel will fall below demand for all the other things made with petroleum. Making the other things the primary justification for extraction and fuel a by-product to be sold to niche applications for some gravy revenue. This will cause a lot of up and down disruptions in the pricing of everything, disruptions in supply and demand of everything as alternative solutions compete with the new price/availability of the petroleum solution. Retooling of a lot of refineries to try and minimize fuel output while maximizing other outputs. Potentially in the future we may end up in a situation of having too much fuel by-product to store and start pumping it back underground if we cannot create refining processes eliminating the fuel step but still getting all the other things we need. Fun times ahead for the petroleum and engineering industries.
@@5353Jumper I forgot to mention that oil wells simply aren't drill and oil flows forever. Wells have to be re-completed in order to maintain flow at economic levels. Fracked oil wells only last several years. CA oil production has dropped from 1.3 million BPD to a current 730,000 BPD and continues to drop 6% per year. When driving past oil fields, you'll always notice new wells being drilled among the older wells. When oil prices are low, the number of derricks in a field can drop to zero. If the price of oil is high, it takes years to get the permits and start drilling again. Two older, un-competitive refineries in California are currently retooling to produce bio-fuels from crops grown in the central valley. The only problem here is that water to grow the crops is becoming scarce. I'm not sure these operations will be solvent in a couple years. The oil industry in California has been shrinking for at least the last 30 years. Oil refineries continue to be shut down contributing to the high cost of gasoline in the state. I just read that in L.A. County, 40% of the 10 million population participate in food stamps, subsidized housing, subsidized healthcare for the poor, and other public subsidy programs which are growing rapidly. Aerospace, manufacturing, and technology companies are headed out the door while the top 1% and software companies are doing quite well. Welcome to the future. Actually, if you are retired like I am, things are pretty good.
@@5353Jumper The CEO of Exxon was asked what they would do in 2050 when all new cars are electric? He said the prediction was that they would be pumping more oil than today. There is a massive middle class coming up in China and India, and they will want all the things that the wests middle class has enjoyed…anything made of plastic, food, synthetic fibers, various useful chemicals, natural gas for the primary loads on the overloaded grid…
@ReluctantLuddite sure as long as we are no longer burning the stuff pump as much oil as you like (please try to keep it out of our drinking water and birds). The petroleum industry is about to go through a massive shift in justification for extraction. Instead of extracting for fuel then making gravy money off the bi-products, we will be extracting for other products with fuel as the bi-product. Maybe the can retool refining so there is less fuel and more other stuff, that would help. It will be a fun ride.
What are some good solar/wind/battery ETFs? I had a look at a few (TAN in particular) but didn't like any of them. So I'm probably just going hard on Tesla stock.
If you buy a stock and it goes down you can hold it until it comes back up. You buy an 😅ETF and it goes down, there are managers that keep sucking money out of the ETF longer it's down the lower it's going to go until it goes bankrupt. If you buy a stock at a high by mistake and it goes down 50% at least you can sell it for 50% of what you put in. Buy an ETF and it goes down 50% and you hold it and hold it and hold it that 50% will then go down to 10% or less as the managers keep sucking salaries out of it. An ETF is only good short term but if you buy it wrong and hold it long-term You can lose your entire investment.
Bad news: Robots are widely used in all these new industries, they do not need too many engineers, at least not as much as the current petrol, auto, and farming scale.
@@kongwee1978 it’s true. Just like farming, even with tractors and other vehicles, we still need operators to operate the machines. But only 2% of the population for farming, compare to 50%-80% before.
Or there will be great demand for AI to make all this happen. By 2029 a lot of white collar jobs could be performed by AI and it is possible that by then, AI will discover or invent more things than the whole of humanity ever invented. If not, five more years would insure that happens.
😄Good day from GOONELLABAH, NSW! 🌏Tony Seba is one of those people who has their head screwed correctly.✅✅✅✅ Thanks for showing up again. I realised that in 1976. - Ian Cleland
@@godq3 The utility battery storage system for the solar farm my power generation counterparts installed in California last year cost $167/kWH. During the Zoom meeting, they said that if the batteries had been made in the USA, they guessed it would have been under $150 due to reduced shipping and tariffs. You are right it is dropping quickly.
@@godq3 Tesla has dropped the price of megapack by half in the past year two. It will continue to decline with megapack 3, as they eliminate unnecessary transformers and make more cost efficient power electronics.
I just bought backup batteries for my solar array for $640/each. Much more than I paid for Lead Acid ones they replaced with barely a 2 year lifetime. Said 10 year life... on the new ones. Ouch
Is it more cost effective to own a home or rent one? I would argue that it is to own one. I believe in most of these predictions, but I don't think disappearance of car ownership will happen.
yes, we're not gonna own cars in the future, because they'll mandate prohibitive licensing for owning one or for a parking lot. Plus, most will be too poor to buy a car. Progressss baby.
UHMMM, so not sure about that, the cars for transportation is still gonna be there, you call and order one up, that means there will be some huge parking lot close to you that holds inventory as to supply the general populations transportation needs, the general premises is to call a taxi or simply own your own car, i think i prefer my own freedom of owning my own,
ya it's the same story. If you want to control things you start with the money system. Fraudulent one we had will be even worse this time, because of digital ID's, blockchain / digital ledgers....social credit scores. But what do I have to complain about i am just an anti $cieince guy / conspiracy theorist =) Young people will eat it up and really they are the future so all we look like though are disenchanted old angry people. I guess with age you see through these things or maybe one is just right to play along even if you live in dystopian future.........smile everyone!!! lol
@@HarrythehunYes because the self driving cars have been hyped for so long, it might show that we have no idea how close we are. Self driving car and flying cars, both. Could be 10 years, could be 150 years
@@BGS_123waymo has already solved self driving cars, they "just" need to bring their costs down, which I'm sure they will soon contracting custom built cars rather than the modified jaguars they currently use. Tesla is coming from the other direction with a very cheap car (compared to Waymo) but their system isn't quite self driving yet.
@@EwanM11 the certification process doesn't even exist. So "solving" self driving car is impossible. Also the momentum is pretty much lost due to all the false starts
Many thanks for introducing me to Tony Seba; nation states clearly need to be planning now for a near future that is transformational across all five industry sectors.
Well, maybe Arabs are just getting ready to dance to a new tune, building some of the largest solar farms in the world. All that sun as a potential new resource.
Andrews Yang said it when he was running for president. Most people laughed about it. He said. I might loose this race but in the future all politicians will sound like him.
RFK is the only presidential candidate talking about future tech, including Bitcoin and putting the US budget on the blockchain. His VP is an AI expert. Go RFK!
@@doreeneclose6295 Nope. We don't need the "Royal Family" Kennedy's to try and keep power. Time to move forward with newer, non -institutional candidates. Also need Term Limits and Campaign Finance Reform.
@@doreeneclose6295 Not even sure why he in the race. He's not Ross Perot. (Who, by the way was right about the debt.) I think to this day someone is still pushing out his charts with updated information.
What happens if investors buy all the precious metals you need, or enough to disrupt the market even further? When you say so much cheaper do you mean the allowing of Chinese imports or are you counting the government putting the huge tariffs they are on electric cars from foreign countries in order to try and protect their own companies? Have you considered they are not market disruptions, but market sabotage? Have you also considered that this is not market disruption but market control via governments?
This could short out the entire system leaving people totally obsolete. I don't know if the financial system can survive this . How you gonna haul your surfboards to the beach on daily basis without a personal vehicle, you know like when the surf is up .
You know, like Tony said, you can STILL own one, if you choose. It's just that, at some point, will be so much more expensive, and it feels almost unreal to say this, most city dwellers will choose not to, apparently. Also, there will probably also be plenty of rental options available, at least, in large cities.
So during rush hour there prob won’t be enough robo taxis. or if there are enough at rush hour, they will be idle during off peak and this will push pricing up.
@@S_Curvesthe pricing will be automatically adjusted to lower the prices outside rush hour and thus extending the use hours, and peaks are softened by increased prices: overall usage of the vehicle will be 50x more than a private drive vehicle.
What an extraordinary presentation. I fear that greed and monopoly will play a role in the future, but perhaps I’m missing the point that both existed in the past and disruption still occurred.
Will they try to stop it, see tariffs on solar panels and now electric cars. As always, they will loose in the end, but will make a lot of destruction on they way out.
Considering how future-oriented Seba is it is striking how rarely he puts out anything new. This book is 10 years old. Not sure why it is being promoted as new.
and yet its not realistic because there are millions of people who in the cities that don't have a driveway so they can't plug in their EV's and then there are the people who love Toyota and are waiting for Toyota to produce a good solid state EV at a good price
I prefer Tony Seba's vision of the future to the current pre WW 3 situation. Everything affordable sounds great. Nuclear could also be disruptive if it got the same attention as renewables. What I don't see is how we will improve our governments to be more effective and less corrupt, how we will create a leadership which does not turn voters against each other, nations, religions or any groups of people against each other.
Viking, 10 points but it’s already happening , 100’s of thousands of jobs layoffs in the USA clone offices, due to AI chat bots , maybe you’re busy looking so far into the future you’re missing what’s happening right now not by robots but AI computer bots all over the world, oh you already know, so your the man take us there, show us what’s happening, great work, keep it up buddy, cheers
the book of Tony Seba "Clean disruption of energy and transportation" is published in 2014 (I have it), it's not a newer version on amazon. look at the publication date on the picture of the book in the video.
Just look up "Tony Seba books". I assumed this was a much newer version. TEV misrepresents such things blatantly too often, which is why I watch his stuff FAR less often than I used to. Credibility matters, IMO.
I admire Tony Seba and accept most of what he says will come true, but one thing he is not taking into account is the reason people buy cars. For most of us they are status symbols or just things we love to own. Nobody needs to spend £80k on a Range Rover when for 99.9% of people a cheaper car will do the same job. Most of us don't need two cars but it is more convenient to have a spare car. For these reasons I doubt the car industry will disappear the way he predicts.
There will be a new status symbol replacing cars. I'm predicting owning high-end customizable domestic robots and a bunch of other intelligent gadgets (body awatar, robot pet dog, rideable drones etc)
I disagree with you. Cars are status symbols NOW, they will not be that much of a status symbol in the future. Nobody is showing off their microwave or the dishwasher machine from the kitchen or their high definition TV sets, but there was a time when they did.
as long as the Electric Grid remains in such a vulnerable state...it can all fail in a day...why isn't our government putting a majority of it's defense budget into guarding the very thing that makes this happen or not happen?
@tsmith8567 The government doesn't create anything. It just redistributes wealth. I don't count on the government for anything. Those politicians are in it for themselves. I know the private sector solves problems.
How? The grid currently can't support this in the US or anywhere else in the world. It could take 5-10-15 years to build out and upgrade. I'm not saying its not going to happen, just don't see how it will happen in 5 years.
To some extent the grid doesn't need to be upgraded as much as you think. As buildings install solar panels, so their drain on the grid reduces - particularly if they have local battery storage.
Correct in my opinion. The current grid cannot deal with more and more solar panels feeding in on sunny days. Thats' why our electricity retailers here in Australia will be CHARGING US to export power into the grid so that they can upgrade the infrastructure. Two electrical engineer friends of mine both say that Australia's power requirements cannot be met by solar and wind. Nuclear is not outdated by any means and looks like the only viable option to me if we have to stop using fossil fuels. This video is ten years old and the facts have not eventuated as it predicts. In fact, electric cars are not selling at the moment, at least where I live. We bought a hybrid car two years ago, so we have a foot in both worlds. The main difference with our hybrid car is that it doesn't have to be charged externally. When I'm driving in remote areas I'm very grateful that we don't have to worry about running out of charge.
One thing is missing in Seba’s lecture - strong resistance and powerful misinformation seeding by those who made a lot of money on the old technology. Remember - they are the ones who paying for this misinformation - and have unlimited legacy resources. Only carbon tax or penalties for pollution can level the playing field renewables and EVs.
your comment is so ironic. As NGO's / corporations work with gov'ts to use your tax payer money to produce, profit and limit the downside of their failures at your expense..........
I think that the falling cost of Green Energy Generation also has a big say in this. If it's cheaper people will buy them and not build new coal power plants or even gas.. It's just a sensible financial decision.
Don't even need carbon tax. Electricity produce cheap or almost next to cheap as energy will automatically almost kill fossil fuel production of electricity.😂😂
@@stevenliew2507 Yes you are right, supply and demand. Problem is the situation you are describing does not exist. People's power bills are not declining as the grid greens.
I’m Involved In ships , there are no electric ships of any consequence and none on the horizon , ships carry everything. Almost everything in your house or on your back has come by ship.
This I agree with totally. I was talking to friends about using old parking garages to store one day rental cars you can take home then turn back in when you get to work, 30 years ago. One day you take a small commuter car, another day maybe you need a van. No problem. The only issue I see with his timeline is what I wrote about yesterday which is infrastructure. Modern China is a brand new country, all their stuff was created recently. The US and Europe have old infrastructure that is 100 years old in many cases. It will take time to upgrade all that stuff. Simply having solar and wind with battery storage is great but all that power has to go somewhere and be available to plug in all those robotaxi's/daily rentals. That hasn't even begun to be built yet and there are lots of political and legal barriers to work out first as I explained earlier. Democracies don't work like the CCP dictatorship.
Yep. Dictatorships knows what its good for it and doing it. In democracy “legacy” industry is allowed and will strongly resist the change by investing into powerful brainwashing campaigns and lobbyists. Effectively shooting itself in the foot.
The best solar company in Australia just installed my new solar system.
Check them out here: www.resinc.com.au/electricviking
Do you believe the Seba predictions? ALL energy will be derived from solar/wind by 2030?!
Give me the name of ONE company that can 1000x the OUTPUT of either solar or wind and you'll have me convinced.
Otherwise, "no hooe in haides".
The only thing that could disrupt this is wars and dictators (singular, taken together). The only way to prevent this is to recover the authoritarian personality mindset. They will destroy us, even if we defeat them. They become that way by choosing to think angry thoughts and take no responsibility. Then THEY are angry and look for ANYTHING to be angry at, to escape responsibility. We can only recover them with love. If we fail to do that, they and their climate change will lead us to a new, dark age.
You're spreading misinformation
Yup, biggest load of bull I've heard. No data to support. Solar cannot support world's energy needs by 2030. Laughable. Nuclear power is definitely going to be needed over the next decade else the lights will go out! @kayakMike1000
No tesla is the best and that’s what made u famous
Gate's Law: “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.”
But Apple overestimated its non-iPhone capabilities, like EVs, in 10 years. Now they do the same for AI as they only "promise" markeiting shortcuts & cannot compete with the Chinese in anything. 1 or 10 years is the same for China. Easy ;)
Nearly 30% of the transportation industry is shipping fuels around the planet.
This is why the international transportation and distribution oligarchy is also obstructing electrification.
They want to prevent switching to more efficient solutions because a huge part of their revenue is based on inefficiency.
Politics will be dirty.
Central generation is dirt cheap.
Distant renewables ARE dirt cheap.
Rooftop PV electricity is dirt cheap.
Grid electricity is expensive, and the grid is a massive infrastructure, a massive investment that needs cash flow.
The grid value is huge and it needs the huge cash flow.
But when the SUN SHINES,
the grid cash flow is DEAD. 😮😮😮😮
When the BATTERY SUPPLIES when the sun doesn't shine,
the grid cashflow is DEAD.
EVs or BVs OVERSIZED BATTERY parked 23hrs every day and all night long are perfect for no grid electricity.
The grid cashflow is DEAD.
Politics will be dirty.
Central generation is dirt cheap.
Distant renewables ARE dirt cheap.
Rooftop PV electricity is dirt cheap.
Grid electricity is expensive, and the grid is a massive infrastructure, a massive investment that needs cash flow.
The grid value is huge and it needs the huge cash flow.
But when the SUN SHINES,
the grid cash flow is DEAD. 😮😮😮😮
When the BATTERY SUPPLIES when the sun doesn't shine,
the grid cashflow is DEAD. 😮
EVs or BVs OVERSIZED BATTERY parked 23hrs every day and all night long are perfect for no grid electricity.
The grid cashflow is DEAD.😮
Exactly. And 10% of all fossil fuels are consumed by moving fossil fuels.
@@aaronsinspirationdaily4896 it is actually closer to 30% if you count all crude petroleum, then all versions of fuels.
@@aaronsinspirationdaily4896 only 10%?
You underestimate the governments ability to screw everything up.
"YOUR" government, for sure
private public partnerships. Corps are buying up the bankrupt gov'ts. Infrastructure and housing. Rent everything own nothing. The next digital banking system will be even worse then the last fraudulent one because .........well you know digital and controllable. Don't assume screw ups are not planned.
❤
And the financialised private sector ability to suck the lifeblood out of everyone's productivity and income. Mixed economy forever with all banks/finance nationalised.
You underestimate the corporations' ability to screw everything up including government. As the USA in the 40s and 50s, and China now, show, doing things through government instead of corporations tends to work better. Privatizing industries almost always makes them more costly and less efficient, it's been shown again and again and again and again. Things like fashion and entertainment are great for private company production. Things like resource extraction, power distribution, etc tend to be done much better through public works.
Where is my cheap electricity now ? Why is it more
Expensive ?
Gonna quit my job now just to be proactive 😊
Hahah, no don't ))
"You cant fire me, I quit!" :D
This sounds like a WEF advertisement, renewables are a blight on the landscape.
So you agree we will own nothing and be miserable.
disruption tends to be slow and then all of a sudden fast
yep.
Gate's Law: “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.”
@sandponics
Because we allowed our weak ass dumbfuck leaders (who knowingly knew that they were being such) de-industrialize us and blow money on the stupidest of things... Hell, they make SURE we can't do a Moon landing anymore - as if these things are supposed to get harder as tech moves on (my ass)!
@sandponics
In about 5,5 years when we can no longer pay the note holders and when _some of them note holders_ have LASER based offence military... No, it's FAR more complicated than that, even. You see, the Western "leaders" want us to all fall, otherwise, we'd all be nuclear powered (with advanced little mass produced nuclear reactors) and we'd be vastly MORE *industrial,* making better economy, etc.
No... think tanks were really (???) too stupid to figure this out 🙄
Disruptions happen slowly then suddenly...
@sandponicssad for many,but not for most!😊
Thank you for covering Tony Seba's recent reveal of his new 2014 book! o/
Ha
I almost thought there was a new book or something. lol
@@AWildBard It was _recently_ released in _May_ (2014). TEV always necros old Tony Seba content & misrepresents its currency. Wutevz, I'm still watching. o/
@@GM4ThePeoplethat's because it is still the voice of reason; Tony Seba.😂
@@tech_tesla_and_trends Who, incidently, is an anagram for "Bony Seat". o/
Best video you ever made Electric Viking! Thanks for this one. So educational!!!
Glad you enjoyed it!
This book was published in 2014. And his predictions have been spot on.
Yeah electric viking is 10 years wrong about the publish date. That's actually scary
He is not gonna gonna get everything right, for example his prediction about self-driving cars were off. We still don't have full autonomous self-driving cars. Notice how in his talk he said: 'self-driving and partially self-driving' or similar words.
The Tony video the Viking published is from 3 months before the Viking video.
There are currently 1.5 billion gas /diesel cars in the world.
Stating that such cars will be obsolete by 2030 is ignorant.
Car owners are not simply going to “junk” their cars for overly expensive EVs
The average age of the auto fleet in the US is 12 years. That means that cars last about that long. If you have to pay $100.00 to fill up your car every week as compared to $10.00 to charge your electric car and if you can buy an electric car for 5k, as he said in this video, then a lot of people will be forced into electric cars by their own greed. They wil simply stop driving their petrol cars because they're too expensive to use, and a lot of them will just sit without bwing used. You don't see many people riding their horse to work anymore. They're too expensive. People drive their cars to where they board their horses so that they can ride them just for fun. That's what'll happen with gas cars too. I've got a 1918 Buick model 45 that I never drive to work, I just take it out on nice summer days.
@@petervanderveen2340 The current average price of an electric car in the USA (circa June 2024) is $56k prior to rebates. The average car insurance cost for an EV car is > $300 per month.
As of May 2024, EVs comprised 6.8% of car sales in the USA. When including PHEVs, the total is 8.5%.
The “S-curve” has not arrived yet in the USA, for a variety of reasons: price, lack of an adequate charging structure, longevity of ICE cars (average life ~ 12.5 years), poor mileage of EV pick-up trucks when hauling loads, etc.
I happen to be an EV car fan … but I am not going to run out and purchase an EV based upon future (and faulty) economic premises.
Also, please do not label people as greedy. Most everyone makes economic judgements (what is in their own interests) … aka capitalism.
Gas and diesel car owners have no say , all are at the mercy of the government and EVs manufacturers. EVs will come into the market like flood pushing gas diesel cars into the garage. 😂
@@petervanderveen2340: That claim means you can't do math, re the first two sentences. If the average age is 12 years, then ROUGHLY, the average car stays on the road significantly longer than that, since MANY cars on the road are 1, 2, 3, ... 11 years old.
I use about 150 gallons of gas a YEAR to drive 3000 city miles, pessimistically. (I'm retired and believe AGW is serious). If I get a Toyota HEV, I'll use more like 60 gallons a year. Even if gasoline gets to $20 a gallon, that's under a QUARTER of what you're claiming per week for gasoline cost average for me. At $5 a gallon (far more likely, at most on average, for years), someone can drive more like the 12,000 roughly average miles a year a US driver drives, with an HEV getting 50 MPG, that's 240 gallons a year costing $1200.
Throwing around the worst possible case is as credible as flat earth theory, or green energy deniers claiming BEV's "will never work". It will take DECADES before all the HEV's are off the road, much less the PHEV's, at least for economic reasons. And given US politics, I think economics and not politicians will make that happen for the most part.
You are the guy that kept buying horses in 1915 and ended up with a hundred animals that sold for pennies on the dollar to the glue factory.
WOW !!! This is the most valuable, most important video I’ve seen this year. I had never heard of Tony Seba before. Thanks Electric Viking for bringing this man on to your platform. I owe you one.
Sincerely,
Pete
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thanks for covering this extremely important info… waking up many thousands of people… good job!
More like, brainwashing propagamda! 🙉🙈🙊👁⛔
Same story on a micro scale: Without a home battery, you're only utilizing your solar PV panels by about 60%. With that additional power you can store in a battery you cover the night when you require less energy anyway. Interestingly, some governments offer financial incentives for solar systems only when homeowners also invest in a home battery. This is why Vehicle to Home/Grid capable EVs will be important too.
My calculations only show 45% (for my situation). The sodium battery will change that, I hope, on local and national grid scale.
waiting for plug and play to be mainstream, and homologated for the grid operator
Lot of homeowners getting Energy Storage to get near net zero! Not Happy sending their free energy for utilities to give them pennies on the kWhs they produce. Utilities know majority of PV system owners will give avoided cost power to resale at multiple s to unaware masses🧐 Smart hybrid sys. owners will keep 99% while off-griders get keep all they need 🗽
Hoping tesla gives car battery usage
@@ordinacijamariomalnar197- Yeah me too except they will probably cut me out because my ‘20 model S comes with free Supercharging.
nuclear is still the cleanest safest way to prduce cheap abudant power, solar is closing, wind is overhyper. I live near several massive wind farms and know the poeple working on them and maintaining them. They are expensive to maintain and dont prduce near the amount of power that is claimed. maybe some day wind will be better but today is not that day
Nuclear has never been economically competitive but has depended on subsidies for its whole history.
A solar farm on the footprint of a nuclear power station produces more power ,comes online as soon as grid infrastructure reaches it,requires infinitely less maintenance, and is not a health hazard for its neighbors.
Much much cheaper
Takes too long too build, decommissioning costs, liability if you are at war. Cheap whilst running, use spent waste, we need oil for plastics and other materials, unless all synthetic even EVs have reduction gear boxes. But yes the Energy age is upon us
Cheap? you should be joking.
Middle-aged Mike... You must really be in the Middle ages because nuclear is the most dangerous dirtiest most destructive so called "clean energy " there is it is not sustainability this is not something similar to fusion there is so much toxic waste that needs to be extracted from and where exactly are you going to dump all of the waste wrong you're going to dump it in areas such as a water supply fertile land & where there are poor people living that's where your precious nuclear waste is going.
Fusion is the answer but fusion is years away . Sustainability wind wave solar and other forms of energy including geothermal are the way to go.
Thank you for sharing this. It amazes how nearly no one is listening to this.
Glad you enjoyed it!
It sure looked like there was a room full of very interested Saudi Arabians. 🤔
Already people all over the internet are reporting they pay nothing for fuel , by using EV's and solar panels but , ice fanatics still swear oil will never leave or run out 😂
I need to make all this money to buy me one of these fast evs and a lotta solar panels though 🧐
Do you realize how many solar panels you would need to charge your Tesla to 80% in one day, and how much they would cost? My friends are reporting that they are paying almost as much to charge their Teslas at Superchargers as they paid for gasoline and not happy about it. Plus they pay a lot more for electric car insurance than they paid for ICE car. But EV fanatics still swear that powering EVs is free.
@@erichter66so you wouldn't invest in TSLA or do think the wrinkles of EVs will get ironed out with time.???
The petro chemical industry produces much more than fuel.
All those plastics and rubber in your EV and you use in everyday life? (Probably much more than you believe) Produced by the PCI.
Fun experiment... Try going 1 day without using plastic/rubber products...
@@erichter66Hey now, stop bringing facts into this wet dream fantasy… 😅
All of these things seem so impossible, I also remember Reading about electric cars before they were on the road and the compact disc before it was invented and the cell phone. The cell phone when I was growing up was like a fantasy, something you see only in sci-fi movies.😅
Blueray, Spotify, Netflix, iPods, Flatscreen TVs = LED TVs, digital cameras, digital watches...
@Harrythehun Right before the digital cameras came out or when they were really expensive at the beginning, I bought a very nice film camera 35 mm. It's sad because they're very expensive, beautiful lenses and everything, but they're pretty much useless now.
Years ago, before I needed glasses, I thought electric cars should be simple, but I only saw lead acid batteries, which were way too heavy - now Seba is talking about cheap, light batteries - perfect...
the electric car is old tech, over 100 years old, it's just changed overtime.
@@chrisheath2637 That is one of the weirdest "never gonna happen" things: there are a million other uses for batteries, and another million more would be there if the batteries were lighter or more powerful or cheaper so obviously there is big money to be made if you manage to develop a better battery. Yet everyone was only talking about EVs needing batteries.
Nokia definitely understood the potential for touchscreen phone disruption. They had functional prototypes years before Apple. Their management just decided to not invest in it because they could not see that it was not the phone but the ecosystem and apps that would make the money and would pull people in.
Apple did not invent the smart phone. Ford did not invent the car. Tesla did not invent the 3-phase generator and motor. Edison did not invent the electric lights. Only Marconi and Nobel made something from their own inventions.
Nokia was the Ford and Toyota of mobile phones.
Nokia is such a sad story for the reasons you state. Ironically, the best year of sales for Nokia was in 2008, the year after the iPhone was released. So Nokia would have likely been smug about things, only for the mobile phone business to be sold less than 5 years later to Microsoft and then disappear and be written off as a bad debt.
It's easy to see touchscreen potential. It's much harder to make it useable with your finger. Apple made it, period.
@@hahtos you can add Motorola to that list Blackberry too so sad
Thanks!
2050,I will be in my 90's definitely won't care. I will continue enjoying my ICE vehicles as long as I can. Remember they predicted peak oil in the 70's. Hey, people always adapt. You are making a mountain out of a mole hill.
When jobs get eliminated, governments will get decimated as well. Their tax base will disappear. Governments never want to spend less. They will think it's their responsibility to take on this issue. As they should. But there are a number of solutions to work around this issue. It's my view that governments almost always pick the solution that provides power to politicians and doesn't really provide a good or even the best solution to the people. Just my observation of history.
hmmm it does seem there is an opportunity for declining oligarchies to retrench their political influence on the politicians. Incumbents will have to duke it out in the free market, without the benefit of co-opted politicians, unless a case can be made for great efficiencies, money or providing the voter jobs. Tony doesn't address corruption, unforeseen events like war, societal mind control, environmental calamity - whether scripted or natural - nor the hidden government's plans. BlackRock owns everything. And the ever present possibility people will just give up. There's also a miraculous element at times.
Correct, they go to war
The government will be funded by billionaires
We still need oil to produce plastics and polyesters right?
Not really. Certainly not at the levels of today where most is wasted. Regulating the circular use of plastics to avoid the continued pollution by micro plastics in our oceans and food chain may see a very rapid decline in oil used in a more sustainable world 🌎.😊
@@malcolmrickarby2313 I thought recycling is a myth? When China stopped taking plastic waste from the west the truth about plastic recycling came to the light. It's just too expensive to separate and recycle the plastics.
Sure, but not burning it.👍
can be taken from the air and stuff. but why reduce co2? we have no forecast climate problem from co2
@@snorttroll4379 LIE.........Much is known............Paul
Thank you for the awakening, the content was enlightening. FYI, Albert Einstein pushed on vegetarianism, while he was alive for environmental reasons, but now it looks like it will happen for economic reasons which falls in line with Milton Freedman's assertion “A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither; a society that puts freedom before equality will get a good degree of both.” Essentially, if a way is forced upon people they will fight it, if it is in their best interest and can make the choice freely, they will.
Thanks for sharing Viking awesome video !! Tony makes total sense
Sam, one of your best videos ever! Thank you!
The only guy actually talking sense rn. Meanwhile im getting mocked for driving an ev by my family lol
meanwhile the numbers on your bank account keep going up
@@robertbidochon7949and your EV value is cratering..?
@@robertbidochon7949you did not buy an EV to save the world, you bought because it’s fast
You should be mocking your family for not driving EV's.
@sandponics Gas cars have computers too. In fact, my supervisor at work got a hydai gas instead of electric 2 months ago. It was in the shop for a week because the shop couldn't figure out why it wouldn't drive. Well, it was that stupid snaphot gizmo by the insurance company. It caused a short, and messed up everything.
So, industry will go, but cars will still be made, turbines will still be made...
How does that work?
Is this Seba guy in with the World Economic Forum?
And everyone is unemployed to pay for robotaxis trip
The book was released in 2014, so 10 years ago, but you say it was released this year (???) .. That is a huge blunder ..
th-cam.com/video/2b3ttqYDwF0/w-d-xo.html
Ideas don’t care when you discover them. Reality doesn’t care when it becomes. Smooth brains don’t hold either. You are welcome to your ignorance and only you can break its chains.
I just love your videos. They are so inspiring to climate change people. Please keep up the good work
Thank you so much!
Great intervention by Tony Seba, thanks !
This is a really good one Sam. You are right on. Thank you for sharing this.
I agree with you on everything other than nuclear. No it's not obsolete. Even though it has a huge upfront cost. It's cheap to run after that. A nuclear power plant can last more than 60 years too.
Nope. Useless.
Obviously the people on this page are sold to the cult. Oil,coal,natural gas and nuclear ,used wisely,will power us for a million years. Oil and coal are not made from fossils.
@@crhu319 But why?
This is not thought through. For example, inFnland we don’t have a lot of wind during winter. It’s -25c in jan/feb and the sun is not up for more than a few hours per day. How do we keep warm? We have 40% nuclear and rest is wind, hydro, sun. And I imagine there are many similar countries in the Northern Hemisphere.
@@TurreTuntematon that is what I was saying too.
Nuclear is a good environmentally friendly source of energy.
Fine,..
. . . OKAY ALREADY....
IT'S DONE.
.... I finally Suscribed😊❤😂😂😂
It displays how important this kind of information is, but how rarely it is presented to the masses. Tony Seba is remarkably accurate with his projections. Thank you for the video !!!
00:02 Industrial Age of energy and transportation will be over by 2050
02:20 Disruption from technology will impact jobs and industries
06:58 Clean disruption will revolutionize energy with cheap electricity
09:48 Next 15-20 years to be most disruptive in history
15:49 Technological disruptions follow S-curves, not straight lines.
18:20 The car and electricity caused a phase change disruption with ripple effects across society.
23:27 Transportation and energy disruption by technology and cost reduction
26:04 Transition to 100% solar wind and battery system is feasible globally
31:01 Precision fermentation disrupts traditional animal-based insulin and dairy industry.
33:39 The dairy industry collapse to start by 2025 due to economic reasons
38:53 Transition to super abundance and near zero cost in multiple sectors.
Hero. Pin to top❤
Feeling better about being 73. Thanks !
Damn
Yeah me too
Feeling better about being 37. Everybody getting what they want. 😃
@@ArbitraryFilmings no it's the computers touch screens and robots oh and smartphones
@@ArbitraryFilmings you think it’s gonna be peaches and cream ?
Very informative! I will be watching Tony closely.
Too bad the majority of people don't realize the changes coming.
It makes the investing opportunity for those of us aware of it that much better. I guess it is time to update my resume too 😒. I hope it will at least be a wash.
Tony Seba will be in the graveyard
The majority miss all the changes. Every time.
Not only don’t realize it , they actually fighting it 😂.
As right as some of his insights are, the boundary of his analysis still are much to smal.
This is typical for most people, involved into their relatively narrow topic, not seeing an even wider picture.
His lenses seem to Analyse the monetary aspect the financial part to see options, tippingpoint and new technology's.
That's what most people think of.
But more fundamental is the energy question.
What is the energetically return on investment in renewable. It's not yet clear, that in a system of renewable the energy surplus can provide also substitution for all the benefits of oil,
More important. Techno industrial civilisation is a subsystem a total dependant subsystem of the ecosphere. And we are even depleting renewable biosphere in many areas dozens of times faster as it can regenerate.
As long as he doesn't account also to this, his predictions may have some truth but ultimately can't show what's realy comming.
Thanks Sam ! another eye opening, brain expanding video ! All the best....
If billions of jobs will be lost , who will have the money to spend when they get to where we want to go
UBI is the only way.
Social Credit.
Billions of new jobs will be created?
The very low birth and marriage rate success that if the borders are ever closed that the population will shrink naturally. The US will be the most impacted because it is the largest population that has a negative net worth in the world. The once strong middle classis is poorer than "poor"countries with the majority having a negative net worth that become generational since the poor and middle have nothing in clear assets to pass on to their kids, That has all happened since the 1970s.
This is something the pro-UBI folks don't seem to get. Let's say everyone is out of work; that means the Gov loses about $4T in income and payroll taxes. So then we tax all corporations at 100% - we'd get $2T back, but we are still $3T short (since we over-spend). So where does the UBI come from? This is basic napkin math, and the fact that Andrew Yang - a math genius - can't figure this out means he is either not smart or a grifter.
Thx for keeping us up on Tony Seba. I must comment that this transition, like the car from the horse, is huge and inevitable, however....... like in Brave New World, 1984 and other books, the transition can be short circuited by big , big money and big political power, creating a forced, totalitarian regime of global financial control, this is a real threat to progress away from fossil fuels, we must not allow it to happen..... however the two faces of the golden rule ( Do unto other as you would have them do to you , and evil : he who has the gold makes the rules ) are in conflict and the struggle of evil to remain in control cannot be underestimated. WE must go for the renewables and EV's and end the daily crush at the gas pump forever, that would put them out of business. Theodore
It's truly hopeless to convince people of this, many have tried: the problem with PV in comparison to hydrocarbons has been and always will be 1) energy density by mass and volume and 2) power distribution.
Go ahead, give me your dislikes and vitriol - I don't care anymore.
A lot of the energy can be locally produced by solar panels and batteries. When the price will go down much more than it is today, everybody will be able to produce much of the energy they will need locally. And I don't think Precision Fermentation will require that much energy anyway. When energy will be much cheaper than today, energy will not represent a problem.
Thanks Sam. I knew thus video existed but could not find it. I will send it to all my friends and family.
Awesome, thank you!
You will own nothing and be happy. Hmmm seems I’ve heard that before
Elite (economic forum) wet dream . Real 1984. 😢
Informative. Thanks for sharing.
If processed food inputs become sourced from electricity and suger, then much of our agricultural land still in use will be monocropped to grow feedstock to create the required quantity of "sugar".
For many people it will be possible, that every bit of food they consume...was extruded from a machine.
So, not all awesome.
No, owing to the efficiency of the fermentation process, we only need 1% of the land area to provide the same product. Livestock are not efficient at all at producing meat.
O come on it does not sound so bad, corporations manufacturing your dinner. What are you a science denier. Look at how they saved us from covid, safe and effective, just make sure your booster shots are up to date and if not....well you are the problem. Fricken anti $cience people!! Sarcasm off.....ya creepy future. Intellectualism disguised as corporate propaganda.
@@keepitreal2902 the last study I saw on this subject was from the impossible meat labs (general term, not necessarily them specifically) admitting that they aren't even close to the efficiency of turning plants into protein and density of nutrition that animals are
Real food will be only for the rich.
@@ecebear3and for those who grow their own.🤔
This vlog is the best insight to our future, when ever I say to most people they all think it’s decades away, many dislike Elon hate him in some cases, this is the way to cull your friend list, totally agree with your comments 100%, wishing you and your family the very best wishes ,🙏🏻
Petroleum product refining and distribution is highly capital intensive and having just retired from a 47 year career in the petroleum business, it is my opinion that no oil company is going to make a major investment in their refineries, distribution facilities, and pipelines. Getting capital from upper executive management is all but impossible. Chances are that you wouldn't be able to get the permits anyway. The point is that as refining withers away, electricity is going to have to pick up the slack even though the grid is already suffering. Of course in California, we are use to getting less for more.
Our grid here in Europe must also be expanded, but much less than CA. No one here has HVAC @ home. No one has electric heaters. Only few have electric cooking, most use induction cooking. Just a few examples. Only the Germans are far behind with their grid.
The petroleum industry is going to experience a massive shift in justification for extraction.
Previously, petroleum extraction was justified by fuel revenue, then all the other things made with fuel by-products were gravey money.
But soon, the demand for fuel will fall below demand for all the other things made with petroleum. Making the other things the primary justification for extraction and fuel a by-product to be sold to niche applications for some gravy revenue.
This will cause a lot of up and down disruptions in the pricing of everything, disruptions in supply and demand of everything as alternative solutions compete with the new price/availability of the petroleum solution. Retooling of a lot of refineries to try and minimize fuel output while maximizing other outputs.
Potentially in the future we may end up in a situation of having too much fuel by-product to store and start pumping it back underground if we cannot create refining processes eliminating the fuel step but still getting all the other things we need.
Fun times ahead for the petroleum and engineering industries.
@@5353Jumper I forgot to mention that oil wells simply aren't drill and oil flows forever. Wells have to be re-completed in order to maintain flow at economic levels. Fracked oil wells only last several years. CA oil production has dropped from 1.3 million BPD to a current 730,000 BPD and continues to drop 6% per year. When driving past oil fields, you'll always notice new wells being drilled among the older wells. When oil prices are low, the number of derricks in a field can drop to zero. If the price of oil is high, it takes years to get the permits and start drilling again.
Two older, un-competitive refineries in California are currently retooling to produce bio-fuels from crops grown in the central valley. The only problem here is that water to grow the crops is becoming scarce. I'm not sure these operations will be solvent in a couple years.
The oil industry in California has been shrinking for at least the last 30 years. Oil refineries continue to be shut down contributing to the high cost of gasoline in the state. I just read that in L.A. County, 40% of the 10 million population participate in food stamps, subsidized housing, subsidized healthcare for the poor, and other public subsidy programs which are growing rapidly. Aerospace, manufacturing, and technology companies are headed out the door while the top 1% and software companies are doing quite well. Welcome to the future. Actually, if you are retired like I am, things are pretty good.
@@5353Jumper The CEO of Exxon was asked what they would do in 2050 when all new cars are electric? He said the prediction was that they would be pumping more oil than today. There is a massive middle class coming up in China and India, and they will want all the things that the wests middle class has enjoyed…anything made of plastic, food, synthetic fibers, various useful chemicals, natural gas for the primary loads on the overloaded grid…
@ReluctantLuddite sure as long as we are no longer burning the stuff pump as much oil as you like (please try to keep it out of our drinking water and birds).
The petroleum industry is about to go through a massive shift in justification for extraction. Instead of extracting for fuel then making gravy money off the bi-products, we will be extracting for other products with fuel as the bi-product. Maybe the can retool refining so there is less fuel and more other stuff, that would help. It will be a fun ride.
What are some good solar/wind/battery ETFs? I had a look at a few (TAN in particular) but didn't like any of them.
So I'm probably just going hard on Tesla stock.
If you buy a stock and it goes down you can hold it until it comes back up. You buy an 😅ETF and it goes down, there are managers that keep sucking money out of the ETF longer it's down the lower it's going to go until it goes bankrupt. If you buy a stock at a high by mistake and it goes down 50% at least you can sell it for 50% of what you put in. Buy an ETF and it goes down 50% and you hold it and hold it and hold it that 50% will then go down to 10% or less as the managers keep sucking salaries out of it. An ETF is only good short term but if you buy it wrong and hold it long-term You can lose your entire investment.
There will be great demand for engineers to make all this happen. We live in interesting times. Young people should be preparing themselves.
Bad news: Robots are widely used in all these new industries, they do not need too many engineers, at least not as much as the current petrol, auto, and farming scale.
@@WarmheartedKyubey Need technicians to repair robots.
@@kongwee1978 it’s true.
Just like farming, even with tractors and other vehicles, we still need operators to operate the machines.
But only 2% of the population for farming, compare to 50%-80% before.
Or there will be great demand for AI to make all this happen. By 2029 a lot of white collar jobs could be performed by AI and it is possible that by then, AI will discover or invent more things than the whole of humanity ever invented. If not, five more years would insure that happens.
young people will worship AI and most of them don't even think we have a future due to money gate....err climate change.
😄Good day from GOONELLABAH, NSW! 🌏Tony Seba is one of those people who has their head screwed correctly.✅✅✅✅ Thanks for showing up again. I realised that in 1976. - Ian Cleland
Ford didn't spend trillions talking about building the car . He just did it. It was a natural evolution not forced.
I find videos like this one to be the best information you put out there. Still lots of questions to answer. Keep up the good work.
The price of batteries is dropping faster than Tony's graph with $53/kwh this month, great news
But whole BESS still cost couple hundred dollars per kwh.
@@godq3 The utility battery storage system for the solar farm my power generation counterparts installed in California last year cost $167/kWH. During the Zoom meeting, they said that if the batteries had been made in the USA, they guessed it would have been under $150 due to reduced shipping and tariffs. You are right it is dropping quickly.
@@godq3 Tesla has dropped the price of megapack by half in the past year two. It will continue to decline with megapack 3, as they eliminate unnecessary transformers and make more cost efficient power electronics.
I just bought backup batteries for my solar array for $640/each. Much more than I paid for Lead Acid ones they replaced with barely a 2 year lifetime. Said 10 year life... on the new ones. Ouch
Is it more cost effective to own a home or rent one? I would argue that it is to own one. I believe in most of these predictions, but I don't think disappearance of car ownership will happen.
yes, we're not gonna own cars in the future, because they'll mandate prohibitive licensing for owning one or for a parking lot. Plus, most will be too poor to buy a car. Progressss baby.
UHMMM, so not sure about that, the cars for transportation is still gonna be there, you call and order one up, that means there will be some huge parking lot close to you that holds inventory as to supply the general populations transportation needs, the general premises is to call a taxi or simply own your own car, i think i prefer my own freedom of owning my own,
He is telling that for many years. Thanks for posting this
This sounds a bit like,”you’ll own nothing and you will be happy”!
This is where they are getting their ideology. This and Marx.
ya it's the same story. If you want to control things you start with the money system. Fraudulent one we had will be even worse this time, because of digital ID's, blockchain / digital ledgers....social credit scores. But what do I have to complain about i am just an anti $cieince guy / conspiracy theorist =)
Young people will eat it up and really they are the future so all we look like though are disenchanted old angry people. I guess with age you see through these things or maybe one is just right to play along even if you live in dystopian future.........smile everyone!!! lol
Exactly, as much as I like Tony’s EV insight.. he’s presenting as a vegan WEF shill, and potentially as dangerous as Yuval Noah Harari
Cars are not assets, they are liabilities. I don't see a value in owning cars just for the sake of owning them.
Welcome to the second quarter of the twenty first century.😊
Thanks for providing such a clear, compelling picture of the future.
it's ten years old this book
Does it affect the information?
@@HarrythehunYes because the self driving cars have been hyped for so long, it might show that we have no idea how close we are. Self driving car and flying cars, both. Could be 10 years, could be 150 years
Self driving cars are already here 😊
@@BGS_123waymo has already solved self driving cars, they "just" need to bring their costs down, which I'm sure they will soon contracting custom built cars rather than the modified jaguars they currently use.
Tesla is coming from the other direction with a very cheap car (compared to Waymo) but their system isn't quite self driving yet.
@@EwanM11 the certification process doesn't even exist. So "solving" self driving car is impossible. Also the momentum is pretty much lost due to all the false starts
Many thanks for introducing me to Tony Seba; nation states clearly need to be planning now for a near future that is transformational across all five industry sectors.
Big money corporate system........not transformational. Hmm no you are right, it is. Just for the good of a few though.
Tony telling the Arabs the dancing is about to end 😂
Arabs, Russia, China, India etc. Over half the world will continue with oil.
You think Saudi is sitting still, like the Anglos?
@@blackknight4996 I don't
Well, maybe Arabs are just getting ready to dance to a new tune, building some of the largest solar farms in the world. All that sun as a potential new resource.
@@grahambrown42 Russia, India, China, the Arabs and their gang are not playing by the same stupid rules.
The cost of limited silver is missing in this presentation. Good presentation.
The Tony Seba book is from 2014 and in May 2024!!
Good message!
Andrews Yang said it when he was running for president. Most people laughed about it. He said. I might loose this race but in the future all politicians will sound like him.
RFK is the only presidential candidate talking about future tech, including Bitcoin and putting the US budget on the blockchain. His VP is an AI expert. Go RFK!
@@doreeneclose6295 What’s the advantage of the blockchain?
@@doreeneclose6295 Nope. We don't need the "Royal Family" Kennedy's to try and keep power. Time to move forward with newer, non -institutional candidates. Also need Term Limits and Campaign Finance Reform.
@@doreeneclose6295 Not even sure why he in the race. He's not Ross Perot. (Who, by the way was right about the debt.) I think to this day someone is still pushing out his charts with updated information.
@@michaelstiller2282 say what? Rome burns and you don’t even notice😂
What happens if investors buy all the precious metals you need, or enough to disrupt the market even further? When you say so much cheaper do you mean the allowing of Chinese imports or are you counting the government putting the huge tariffs they are on electric cars from foreign countries in order to try and protect their own companies? Have you considered they are not market disruptions, but market sabotage? Have you also considered that this is not market disruption but market control via governments?
Hmmm... Wishful timeframe ?
Infrastructure needs to be upgraded. Inflation is punitive now. Funds are scarce.
Not at all - there is an immense amount of money awaiting for good opportunities. The most difficult part is to identify what is a good opportunity.
Amazing Thank You
Thank you too!
What does Tony say about plug in hybrids?
Freedom's just another way of saying , nothing left to lose
Isn't that for the bums?
Thank you for bringing. Us tony sebas ideas which were new to me
This could short out the entire system leaving people totally obsolete. I don't know if the financial system can survive this . How you gonna haul your surfboards to the beach on daily basis without a personal vehicle, you know like when the surf is up .
You know, like Tony said, you can STILL own one, if you choose. It's just that, at some point, will be so much more expensive, and it feels almost unreal to say this, most city dwellers will choose not to, apparently. Also, there will probably also be plenty of rental options available, at least, in large cities.
you call a robotaxi, or book one to come at a given time. Really not difficult.
So during rush hour there prob won’t be enough robo taxis. or if there are enough at rush hour, they will be idle during off peak and this will push pricing up.
@@S_Curvesthe pricing will be automatically adjusted to lower the prices outside rush hour and thus extending the use hours, and peaks are softened by increased prices: overall usage of the vehicle will be 50x more than a private drive vehicle.
What an extraordinary presentation. I fear that greed and monopoly will play a role in the future, but perhaps I’m missing the point that both existed in the past and disruption still occurred.
Will they try to stop it, see tariffs on solar panels and now electric cars. As always, they will loose in the end, but will make a lot of destruction on they way out.
1984 😳 scary like hell!
Can we make cost-effective fertilizer with solar?
Considering how future-oriented Seba is it is striking how rarely he puts out anything new. This book is 10 years old. Not sure why it is being promoted as new.
The presentation is from 2023.
It's actually cool that the prospect for clean air, water, and soil is within our grasp.
and yet its not realistic because there are millions of people who in the cities that don't have a driveway so they can't plug in their EV's and then there are the people who love Toyota and are waiting for Toyota to produce a good solid state EV at a good price
I prefer Tony Seba's vision of the future to the current pre WW 3 situation. Everything affordable sounds great. Nuclear could also be disruptive if it got the same attention as renewables. What I don't see is how we will improve our governments to be more effective and less corrupt, how we will create a leadership which does not turn voters against each other, nations, religions or any groups of people against each other.
Viking, 10 points but it’s already happening , 100’s of thousands of jobs layoffs in the USA clone offices, due to AI chat bots , maybe you’re busy looking so far into the future you’re missing what’s happening right now not by robots but AI computer bots all over the world, oh you already know, so your the man take us there, show us what’s happening, great work, keep it up buddy, cheers
the book of Tony Seba "Clean disruption of energy and transportation" is published in 2014 (I have it), it's not a newer version on amazon. look at the publication date on the picture of the book in the video.
Just look up "Tony Seba books". I assumed this was a much newer version. TEV misrepresents such things blatantly too often, which is why I watch his stuff FAR less often than I used to. Credibility matters, IMO.
@@rogergeyer9851 quanitity is not in favour of quality ... but he often presents interesting info, up to us to check the facts.
I admire Tony Seba and accept most of what he says will come true, but one thing he is not taking into account is the reason people buy cars. For most of us they are status symbols or just things we love to own. Nobody needs to spend £80k on a Range Rover when for 99.9% of people a cheaper car will do the same job. Most of us don't need two cars but it is more convenient to have a spare car. For these reasons I doubt the car industry will disappear the way he predicts.
I think it depends country to country due to differing cultures and habits.
The ultimate status symbol is a chauffeured car. Soon everyone will have access to the equivalent.
There will be a new status symbol replacing cars. I'm predicting owning high-end customizable domestic robots and a bunch of other intelligent gadgets (body awatar, robot pet dog, rideable drones etc)
I disagree with you. Cars are status symbols NOW, they will not be that much of a status symbol in the future. Nobody is showing off their microwave or the dishwasher machine from the kitchen or their high definition TV sets, but there was a time when they did.
This is the greatest video I’ve ever watched in my life.
Low bar I take it. Sorry lol, guess you can see i disagree strongly =)
as long as the Electric Grid remains in such a vulnerable state...it can all fail in a day...why isn't our government putting a majority of it's defense budget into guarding the very thing that makes this happen or not happen?
V2H technology is already here and provides LOCAL power at night as needed. Grid no longer needed after enough of these are plugged in.
the government works against us, always has.
For all these plans to work, we need less people.
Because they are corrupt
@tsmith8567 The government doesn't create anything. It just redistributes wealth. I don't count on the government for anything. Those politicians are in it for themselves. I know the private sector solves problems.
Tony Seba's book that you feature, saying it was 'recently revealed" and "came out in May this year" - CAME OUT IN 2014.
How? The grid currently can't support this in the US or anywhere else in the world. It could take 5-10-15 years to build out and upgrade. I'm not saying its not going to happen, just don't see how it will happen in 5 years.
To some extent the grid doesn't need to be upgraded as much as you think. As buildings install solar panels, so their drain on the grid reduces - particularly if they have local battery storage.
Correct in my opinion. The current grid cannot deal with more and more solar panels feeding in on sunny days. Thats' why our electricity retailers here in Australia will be CHARGING US to export power into the grid so that they can upgrade the infrastructure. Two electrical engineer friends of mine both say that Australia's power requirements cannot be met by solar and wind. Nuclear is not outdated by any means and looks like the only viable option to me if we have to stop using fossil fuels. This video is ten years old and the facts have not eventuated as it predicts. In fact, electric cars are not selling at the moment, at least where I live. We bought a hybrid car two years ago, so we have a foot in both worlds. The main difference with our hybrid car is that it doesn't have to be charged externally. When I'm driving in remote areas I'm very grateful that we don't have to worry about running out of charge.
This book is NOT “new” and was published in 2014. What else have you said is inaccurate?!
This book is not from 2024, it was published in 2014.
Have you done any videos about the environmental damage caused by lithium mining and other consequences of electric vehicles?
This book is over 10 years old!
Yeah. Release date according to Amazon is 2014.
And I am still discovering a lot of things I was not aware of, like Precision Fermentation and how it will change the agriculture and farming.
Flying cars and cow fart taxes it's the only way!
Ten years ago he made the predictions that have been proven very accurate now.😊
This is what makes sense once you have seen how good EV's are and the fatc that solar PV, battery storage and ASHP's work.
One thing is missing in Seba’s lecture - strong resistance and powerful misinformation seeding by those who made a lot of money on the old technology. Remember - they are the ones who paying for this misinformation - and have unlimited legacy resources. Only carbon tax or penalties for pollution can level the playing field renewables and EVs.
your comment is so ironic. As NGO's / corporations work with gov'ts to use your tax payer money to produce, profit and limit the downside of their failures at your expense..........
I think that the falling cost of Green Energy Generation also has a big say in this. If it's cheaper people will buy them and not build new coal power plants or even gas.. It's just a sensible financial decision.
@@TricoliciSerghei of course
Don't even need carbon tax. Electricity produce cheap or almost next to cheap as energy will automatically almost kill fossil fuel production of electricity.😂😂
@@stevenliew2507 Yes you are right, supply and demand. Problem is the situation you are describing does not exist. People's power bills are not declining as the grid greens.
I’m
Involved
In ships , there are no electric ships of any consequence and none on the horizon , ships carry everything. Almost everything in your house or on your back has come by ship.
And nothing EVER changes. /s
This I agree with totally. I was talking to friends about using old parking garages to store one day rental cars you can take home then turn back in when you get to work, 30 years ago. One day you take a small commuter car, another day maybe you need a van. No problem. The only issue I see with his timeline is what I wrote about yesterday which is infrastructure.
Modern China is a brand new country, all their stuff was created recently. The US and Europe have old infrastructure that is 100 years old in many cases. It will take time to upgrade all that stuff. Simply having solar and wind with battery storage is great but all that power has to go somewhere and be available to plug in all those robotaxi's/daily rentals. That hasn't even begun to be built yet and there are lots of political and legal barriers to work out first as I explained earlier. Democracies don't work like the CCP dictatorship.
Yep. Dictatorships knows what its good for it and doing it.
In democracy “legacy” industry is allowed and will strongly resist the change by investing into powerful brainwashing campaigns and lobbyists. Effectively shooting itself in the foot.
What about storage costs, not marginal? Massively expensive?
Love it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So exciting thanks for sharing this information