After Pax Americana: No One's World
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.พ. 2013
- Charles Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University and Whitney H. Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, gave a talk entitled "After Pax Americana: No One's World" on February 21, as part of the Einaudi Center's Foreign Policy Distinguished Speaker Series.
By and large, this guy gets it. Every time we intervene abroad, we spend a bit of the political capital the U.S. has built up throughout the Pax Americana. Like any investment, the cost of international intervention comes with risks, and if it is not carefully executed at the right time, in the right place, and in the right way, then we expose ourselves to the full risk of our investment, like the latest Iraq War. However, by nation building here at home while responsibly intervening abroad with a system that incentivizes the creation of as many 'win-win' scenarios as possible, we can grow America's international political capital. Although this approach will not be easy, quick, or cheap, it will yield the highest return on our investment by allowing the U.S. to remain first among equals in the international community while preserving peace and stability during the inevitable transition to a multi-polar world.
I foresee three tricky hurdles in trying to be the popular yet responsible kid in the high school meets Lord of the Flies dynamics that characterize international relations. First is the problem of who we must interact with to forge this new order. Some of those with whom we must interact, and possibly support directly, are people that are already antagonized by someone else (which means we could be seen as "taking sides"), perform actions that gain the antagonism of others (again making us look like the supporters of their actions through our support of them), and those who already see us as antagonists based on our past interactions and the resulting loss of trust. A great example would be Iran, where our recent nuclear deal has angered the Saudis, where Iran's support for militants in the region is something we are forced to condemn on principle, and where our poorly chosen support of the Shah led to that nation's revolution and a resulting loss of trust.
The second major hurdle is that we can not rely on building trust alone, but also respect, which means that while we are nation building at home and making friends abroad, we must still divert enough of our resources into maintaining and upgrading our military might to command the necessary respect needed to remain internationally relevant and servicing the pax in Pax Americana. A great example of how we are not doing this successfully, despite all the money we are pouring into the military, is the comparison between Russia's recent upgrades to its nuclear arsenal versus our dangerously outdated and largely obsolete arsenal. As much as I would love to support nonproliferation, in a world where the Pandora's box of nuclear weapons has already escaped, the best defense against a world where the weapon of last resort is used in anger is to maintain nuclear parity. After all, was it not the insanity of the scenario of Mutually Assured Destruction that made the US and USSR so hesitant to make the Cold War as hot war?
The third major hurdle is the increasing political gridlock that has characterized American politics over the past two presidencies. The inability of the state to implement the prescribed policies of governance in a sufficiently agile manner can be a potential source of disaster. Likewise, the extreme rhetoric that has accompanied the political gridlock has already cost us some political capital abroad.
In short, if America can balance the tasks of making necessary improvements at home, growing mutually beneficial partnerships/friendships abroad, and maintaining enough top-tier military capabilities to support ourselves and our allies, then the transition to the multi-polar world has the highest chance of success. However, this is a tall order for any nation, and depends first and foremost on restoring legislative productivity. If we fail in that, it is best to chart out a Plan B. An example of a Plan B, such as one that might result from an overly heavy-handed approach to international affairs that drains our political capital, might involve the adoption of highly aggressive expansion and exploitation of outer space to provide the economic, territorial, and technological growth that would be required to maintain a U.S. world hegemony. It should be noted that even if Plan B were successfully implemented, it would still only delay, not prevent, the inevitable transition to a multi-polar world, would further alienate other nations when that multi-polar world does come to fruition, and would necessarily rely on providing non-state actors (likely corporations) to unprecedented powers and responsibilities potentially coming into direct competition with the interests of the people which the state is supposed to represent.
ii like your direction and wanted to add from an educated Chinese view over those years of power transfer, and this is common knowledge over there, why they decided to withdraw ... because they could not encounter with the west characteristic,, and they always will detest , it is basic cultural engagement rule in any civilization including animal plains. Thus the idea of No One's World is common sense and older even older than China, and they knew it then ! and so have many more Chinese, at the time. This was taught to me by Chinese Professor from Bey Gin. thank you for reading
pax Britannica to pax Americana to pax israeliana
Pax Judaica to be precise :)
Pax Zionista ;-)
If you are talking about the territory called israel i don't see how that would be possible, if you are talking about the elite, then is not a pax israelina but a pax judaica, and i really dont believe that would be feasible to argument too.
Escape the Matrix lmao
Emilio José Vaca if they expand like it's been prophesized and the Antichrist shows himself, they will be powerful enough to do this. Look at GB, yes it had colonies, but itself, not very large. The fear I have is that the collapse of pax Americana will be due to wat, wether external.or internal.
PAX JUDIACA
Next one will be Pax Judaica
Yes and then pax judaica will fall too
next pax judaica
We're in a Pax Judaica, it is a direct extension of the Pax Americana. There won't be a superpower to support israel after America falls.
The far east are all ethnostates that can give them the middle finger.
Russia is similar in the way that they can also give them the middle finger.
The middle east hates them, cause you know ... islam.
Europe is gradually becoming islamic and relys on America for NATO support.
India is a shithole that is barely functioning as a country.
Africa and Latin America? maybe.
Starlord Israel is not done expanding yet, they've run into road blocks. They want "their" whole historic holy land. They're hungry for Syria hard, showing their desperation.
Starlord you forgetting Armageddon world would be smaller for Israel to control.
No masters = no slaves
what about pax judaica
new world order?
One more is pacar judaica
Sweg
there has never been pax americana😂
You are on a *American* Website.
U.S has the largest economy, the largest and most dominant military, and the most political power spread across the Globe. When you look at the world, you will see 156 Democracies, and Republics. You would see McDonald's and Coca Cola at every developed and developing country you go to.
So I'm pretty sure there *is* Pax Americana.
@Rorik Bluetooth Oh yeah when you can't understand a topic just blame it on the jews, classic
@Rorik Bluetooth Many far-right online personas love to stress that distinction "its not judaism its zionism!" and simultaneously point in the direction of the exact rhetoric that the Nazi Party used forward to white supremacists that still linger their bullshit today.
No one is fooled by your conspiratorial ideologies that are mostly just a cover for "I'm racist, proud of it and think the Jews 'code word for anyone that expresses that darker tone people are ok' need to be erased from the European and American continents."
We all know Israel is controlled by war hungry, paranoid leaders but imagine thinking they control the Global Stage and are in charge of foreign militaries, you're a troll lol.
Blows my mind that this is a ten yo lecture. He’s got most things right except America hasn’t listened to him on what to do to manage emerging powers and next decade is going to be tumultuous to say the least.
USA should stop undermining the UN by not respecting the organisation, but over riding its authority on matters of war and peace.