Unlock the Secrets of Speed and Pace Figures
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.ย. 2024
- In this eye-opening video, I dive deep into the world of speed and pace figures, revealing insights that could change your view on horse racing forever.
Learn how Andrew Beyer revolutionized speed figures and why some of his methods - and other speed and pace figures - are inaccurate.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, this video will provide valuable knowledge and spark intriguing discussions.
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NOTE: I may cover this in a future video, but be aware that the value of time IS exemplified by distance, and that is likely what Kovitz and Beyer were attempting to show. But, given the technology today, these broad generalizations are not necessary.
#HorseRacing #SpeedFigures #PaceFigures #AndrewBeyer #Brisnet #KentuckyDerby #BelmontStakes #ThoroughbredRacing #RaceAnalysis #HorseLength #BettingTips #PaceAnalysis #EquestrianSports #sportsbettingtips #betting #sportsbetting
Great show thank you
Thank you!
It would help if you demonstrated whether it makes any difference with regards to Predictions which are made for ranking horses, and how much.
I have done studies on Trackmaster, Beyer, Brisnet, and old-school DRF speed ratings. There is very little difference.
i like the video and have to think a bit now.
One thing to keep in mind that I didn't mention in the video is that the value of time IS exemplified by distance - and that may have been what Kovitz was trying to represent.
For example, if we accept that a length is generally 0.17 seconds, it is clear that 0.17 seconds is more meaningful at 2 furlongs than 20.
The problem arises when handicappers use these distance-adjusted length values for ground lost/gained.
Does that make sense?
It would have been better - but more cumbersome - for Beyer and Kovitz to have adjusted the race time with either 1/6-second for a length (or the more accurate value, based on time) and THEN compute the speed figures.
By not doing this, they later ran into problems with turf and synthetic races that they would up correcting by other means.
Ya- put your " Thinking Cap " on for a little bit ! 😂👊
I like how U " Split Hairs " & put it all under the " High Powered Microscope " ! You are really Somethin ! 😂 👊 👍
I actually DON'T do that in practice. Even the most accurate speed or pace figure is limited (for various reasons). I just think it's helpful to know what one is looking at.
For example, for many years, advocates of the Sartin Methodology crowed about how their feet-per-second distinction was superior.
It actually makes no difference how you measure speed as long as distance and time are represented. Miles per hour, yards per second, or feet per fortnight -- it's all the same thing. It's simply a matter of aesthetics and ease of use (this is the logic behind scientific notation too).
@@dereksimon8953 thanks for explaining it ! 👍
I like your Analysis ! 👍
I've won a few Trifectas with the Greyhounds - long time ago.... By betting the 2 fastest dogs with every other dog. ( Tri-Wheel Key ) I think it's called
I just went to an OTB in Daytona that used to be a dog track and used to go to Mile High Kennel Club in Colorado.
@@dereksimon8953 Ya, no- go get em ! I like the Horses way more but I might have done better with the dogs, overall ! Crazy, huh ? 😂
@@dereksimon8953 I had some luck with the 1 & 8 dogs & dogs that were heavier ( so if they got bumped or jostled for positioning they wouldn't fall far behind ) but I no expert !
Do U give Spectacular Bid his props for setting the World Record at 1 & 1/4 Miles ? Just curious ! He seems like one of the best Race Horses of All Time. !
Absolutely! I think Spectacular Bid is very underrated, probably due to when he came along. He was a BEAST as a 4-year-old.
@@dereksimon8953 ya! He was really Special ! One of my Favorites !
All commercial speed figures put handicappers in a betting funnel not a great place to start in a pari mutual game.
Hey, I caught your show and really enjoyed it. I hear what you're saying but, at the very least, speed figures show us who the public is going to bet.
And, as a single factor, they are the post predictive tool outside of odds.
Paul knows what’s up
D you have a finished lenght chart for different distances
I use speed figures mainly as a secondary factor, and I think most commercial speed figures do a reasonable job in this regard.
But if you want, I would suggest valuing lengths by time, e.g. figure the value of a length (in seconds) and, then, divide that by the final time (in seconds). Again, though, I think the value is marginal.
I use the daily racing form speed figures with the varint and than I uses equibase gps for ground lose so just say a horse ran a mile 5288 feet the horse lose one lenght so i would add one point to the number now in the same race a horse ran 6 furlong In 3984 so the horse lose 3 lengths I would add 3 to the number that's why I can't use times and the reason I use the old way speed figures because everybody uses class par to make figures that wrong because I seen andy beyer numbers sometimes the horses run same time and distance on the same day and track and both numbers are different because one ran in a allowance race the other one ran in a 25000 clamier
@@johngiglio-vc2dx I like it! Beyer numbers have morphed into performance figures -- you're absolutely right!
Here's an article I wrote years ago that makes your point:
www.usracing.com/news/features/time-call-beyer-speed-figures-really
Winning yes
Well, of course. In 40+ years, I have never met a losing player. I'm sure you're crushing it.
@@dereksimon8953 you just admitted you lose
@braxton548 I said nothing about my own play. My goal has always been to make a living wage, and I have not done that.
I got an idea, though. I've been wanting to do a series on making money starting with a small bankroll ($500 or less). Do you want to partake in that? I didn't think about recruiting others, but that might be fun.
@@dereksimon8953 read between the lines
It's all very rough estimates. The number of lengths estimated by the race caller varies greatly. The turn creates a perspective very different from the backstretch, and the ability to estimate accurante lengths in the stretch is really broken by the perspective you have from the roof and camera.
Many, many moons ago I read an article comparing charts from DRF to charts from The Racing Times (Steve Crist's brainchild). Not only were the margins significantly different, but there were also differences in position. That's why I don't fret too much about absolute accuracy.
That .45 is a big discrepancy, are mije races therefore exploitable?
No, I'm so sorry to have given that impression. I try to keep these videos short and sometimes may cut too much. That was meant to be an absurd example. You'll notice the mile time corresponding with the 0.45 value is four minutes (240 seconds).
I just wanted to clarify some of the confusion relating to speed figures and how they are created. What Beyer and his cohorts were REALLY trying to do is represent the impact of time over distance because early parallel time charts did a poor job of this (which Beyer explains in "Picking Winners").
For example, one second in a 2-furlong race carries a LOT more weight than one second in a 20-furlong race -- and this makes perfect sense.
However, because Beyer used both lengths and distance coeffecients to show this, many got confused into believing the value of a length related to the distance of the race. This is not true.
When I compute my own pace figures, I make my calculations based on time FIRST, and then adjust for lengths behind.
Well you gave a shining example from the 1800's. And you showed a win payout. Only suckers bet to win
@@braxton548Well, that's not what the ADW data shows. But why don't you join me in my demonstration. You can dazzle everybody with your brilliance.
@@dereksimon8953 whats next you giving out secretariat?
@@braxton548 I've flat-out challenged you to prove your expertise, yet you continue yapping. Are you in or out? Come on, it'll be fun! Jon Luman 2.0 (long-time followers will get the reference).
Totally useless cuz gives nothing but favorites and low odds
It depends on what other metrics you use and the race itself. For example, playing the top last-race speed figure in the Kentucky Derby has produced a positive ROI since 1992 (when commercial speed figures were first available), including War Emblem ($43.00).
@@dereksimon8953 can't base your opinion on one great example. In the long run you lose
@@braxton548 I said it depends on the metrics you use and the race. Few of us bet every race -- nor should we.
But you could make the same argument about favorites. As a whole, they lose money, so does that mean we should never bet a favorite?
@@dereksimon8953 nonsense
@@braxton548 Keep doing what you're doing.