William's comment at the end about odds shortening for likelier winners (around 36:26) - was that inferring that "smart" money from consortiums (he's implying his one would have been placed at the last minute) would come in late, or that a generally greater pool of money better reflects the winning probability of each horse?
It would be the 'greater pool of money better reflects the winning probability of each horse'. Generally speaking, the more money wagered, the more efficient the odds become.
Mr. Benter had his computer hooked up to the race tracks', and thus could put in many large bets based on those 'last minute' odds. This relates to the Kelly Criterion. Most of the 'smart' money is coming in from the connections of the horse. They know the current condition of their horse.
The nearer to the off you place your bet, the less "unknown" variables there can be to affect your chances. Horse playing up, bolting to start, sweating badly, etc. A small fiver bet not gonna be an issue, but 5/6 figure bets, you would want to be 100% sure your horse was fit, well and ready to give its best
Nothing that wasn't mentioned through the talk. One is Gu & Kong (1998), one is William Benter (himself), Richard Epstein, and a ref' for Edward Thorpe's Beat the Dealer
@@DineshPadisetti , I am surprised he didnt catch that himself, a $20 bet seems awfully low for a $10,000 bankroll. maybe he thought the bankroll was $1000. Unless I misheard, he seemed to say their group made 6,600 bets over 11 years (600/year). I cant see how they made so much money (profit) with so few bets. $100,000 bets would mean they BET $600 million, and they certainly lost a lot of bets - if they got $800 million in return that means $200 mill profit. He did beat the 18% track take which is amazing.
I was here June 21,2022. Great informative speech, knowledgeable is knowing (-)(+) expectations.
Genius talking here. Thanks for your contribution Bill Benter.
Thanks for posting.
I assume everyone’s hero is a superhero, bento is my hero. What a baller. Stockmarket next, world domination ..
I feel inspired alot.Found my role model.
William's comment at the end about odds shortening for likelier winners (around 36:26) - was that inferring that "smart" money from consortiums (he's implying his one would have been placed at the last minute) would come in late, or that a generally greater pool of money better reflects the winning probability of each horse?
It would be the 'greater pool of money better reflects the winning probability of each horse'. Generally speaking, the more money wagered, the more efficient the odds become.
Mr. Benter had his computer hooked up to the race tracks', and thus could put in many large bets based on those 'last minute' odds. This relates to the Kelly Criterion. Most of the 'smart' money is coming in from the connections of the horse. They know the current condition of their horse.
Bill is my hero.
The nearer to the off you place your bet, the less "unknown" variables there can be to affect your chances. Horse playing up, bolting to start, sweating badly, etc.
A small fiver bet not gonna be an issue, but 5/6 figure bets, you would want to be 100% sure your horse was fit, well and ready to give its best
The references, in the end, are very blurred. Can someone direct me somewhere to get the references?
Nothing that wasn't mentioned through the talk. One is Gu & Kong (1998), one is William Benter (himself), Richard Epstein, and a ref' for Edward Thorpe's Beat the Dealer
Thought his name was Bill Benter
Publish the information in a book about winning over a billion in Hong Kong dont die with all that information
Google, "Power laws and self similarity." (!)
sick brag at the end
💎
2% of $10,000 is $200, he said it's $20.
He said 0.2 %
@@joelakotia6591 He said 0.02 of 10,000 dollars which is 2% and it comes down to $200, not $20.
Yea he flanked on the basic 😂🤣 if I was writing my speech like that I’d notice it myself 😅
@@DineshPadisetti , I am surprised he didnt catch that himself, a $20 bet seems awfully low for a $10,000 bankroll. maybe he thought the bankroll was $1000. Unless I misheard, he seemed to say their group made 6,600 bets over 11 years (600/year). I cant see how they made so much money (profit) with so few bets. $100,000 bets would mean they BET $600 million, and they certainly lost a lot of bets - if they got $800 million in return that means $200 mill profit. He did beat the 18% track take which is amazing.
Who cares. Look at his accomplishments, and who are you.
Bill Better vs fixed odds lol yikes!
sounds like kermit the frog
xzhin
你们好，我不会英文，有没有人会用中文解释给我听？