fiiine you can like the video since its a brand new series (PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE) Go to strms.net/factor75_settledrs and get 50% OFF your first Factor75 box + Free Wellness Shots for Life! Two free wellness shots per order with an active subscription. Thanks to Factor75 for sponsoring the video!
seriously fix random lines in your video series or i will unsub and click ///youtube tell never suggest your channel again.seriously theys line make me think that my tv,phone or monitor is failed cuse i see lines
I would have never thought watching someone trying to do dwarf cannon without taking damage for 20 mins would be riveting content. But settled always finds a way.
Not for me. I enjoy his grinds, the dedication, the info, and the story he paves along the way. Straight up RNG farming just doesn't appeal to me. Same reason I've never cared for RNG heavy speedruns
@@bbbbbbb51that’s fair. But settled did mention the early game is the only time to do this. He explained having to RNG grind for an item, or two for the sake of the runs mid game. These risky RNG plays are how the account is born and how it will inevitably die. I doubt every episode from here on out is going to be another gamble. The sunk cost will break him
@@bbbbbbb51 ohh so it's not only just me? Good! I don't like the whole Idia of this. I like limitations, grinds, challanges... But this seems like it's just a RNG fest followed by long grind and then another RNG fest. It's just to much IMO
@@ThatGuy-ep7xq literally idle game that requires almost constant attention is not fun, who woulda thunk... That gives me an idea though, I should make runescape clone that's just an idle game but without any new mechanics unlike crap that's out there.
I’m so excited to have new “Settled tortured himself” content. Easily my favorite thing to watch on TH-cam.. it should be said, I do like him. He just makes misery enjoyable to watch.
Regardless of how many people try, nobody can quite match the cinematic feel of Settled. This was amazingly fun to watch, the storytelling just grabs your attention and drags you in. Can't wait to see what's in store for this insane account. I think an interesting idea for the series might be to add extra lives to the account for completion of monumental achievements, like completing certain collection logs, beating certain bosses (is that even possible?), or certain levels of diaries/quests. Just as a one-time bonus for crazy achievements to allow for the slightest bit of breathing room.
I'm curious if Settled realises how incredibly well made his videos are 20 minutes barely felt like 5, completely invested in it, already fiening to watch the next episode
There's a ton of work that goes into it. He's very well aware. No one makes really good videos like this with solid production value by just throwing them together.
I made a joke to a friend, "Did you hear settled's new youtube series? Every point of damage sends an electric shock to his ball sack" This is so much worse.
VR OSRS 2030: hardcore hardcore ironman, we are stuck in the game till someone completes it. If I die in game the VR headset will completely fry my brain and kill me IRL
Only Settled can make a 20 min video on fixing a fence and have it be super entertaining and anxiety inducing. Looking forward to seeing what you do with this series!
Settled is by far my favorite osrs content creator. The context, the commentary, editing, it's so well put together and he is so wholesome there is nothing more exciting to watch.
I find Dark Souls easier than trying to switch prayers on Jad. At least when something swings their weapon in dark souls, you know when the damage is going to register.
@@PhrozenFox you find dark souls easier than *possibly* having to switch your prayer every SIX seconds? Jad is not hard brother, you’re letting your brain get the best of you
Not gonna lie that Pinball event animation you did genuinely kinda scared me, also was really funny. Great content as usual, still the best runescape TH-cam by far
I've genuinely never played RS at all. But I *LOVE* game knowledge. Thinking about how much you learn, use, abuse or take advantage of in each series is crazy and definitely one of my favorite parts about watching these. And the statistics just *chef's kiss* Good luck Settled, you're gonna need it!
I actually had the thought that a no damage run would be your next challenge, then IMMEDIATELY dismissed the thought because it would be TOO INSANE. So psyched!
This is gonna be the series where Settled finally makes a video, somewhere along the journey, admitting he bit off more than he could chew. Love the videos man & best of luck!
Settled dude, you're one of the few people on this planet who can get hundreds of thousands of people invested in a pixel character fixing a railing on a game. You are elite kind of talented.
For anyone wondering, the mathematics (without simulations) of why it is approx. 1/300 are as follows: the probability of successfully completing a rail (with retries) is 0.24+0.38*0.24+0.38^2*0.24+... = 0.24/(1-0.38) ~= 0.3871, because it is a geometric sum. The 0.38 is the probability of a retry after failing (because (1-0.24)/2 = 0.38). Then you simply need 6 independent successes in a row, so that would be (0.3871)^6 = 0.003364 or a one in 297.2232 chance of successfully repairing 6 rails.
@@sun3k I started trying to calculate it, then decided to ctrl+f for "0.24" before committing, lmao. Glad I did, this comment saved me an hour of time!
@@Zxv975 I managed to think of a worse way to do this by swapping it to a fail chance and then swapping it to a success chance again. Anyway TIL the funny infinite sum formula
Thanks for your explanation. However, I don't really understand the 0.38 chance of a retry after failing. Why is it not just 0.5 as we either take damage or get a de-buff? Thanks in advance!
@@skullie007 Good question. 0.38 combines the 0.5 from the retry and the 0.76 from the failure. 0.5 × 0.76 = 0.38. In words, the successful scenarios are: 1) You succeed first try. 0.24 chance. 2) You fail the first try, but then you survive the 50/50. You then succeed on the next try. 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.24 chance. 3) You fail on the first try, survive the 50/50, fail the next try, survive the 50/50 then finally succeed on the next try. 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.24. ... and so on. You add these all together to get the total probability via the infinite sum approach. You can see you get 0.76 × 0.5 in each of these terms, which they've just combined as 0.38.
I love this channel so damn much, and I'm terrified that you've invented a series with a constant, easy to hit failure state. I'm so in for spending the next few months stressed for like 20 minutes a week over this
@@isaacjacob3590 It's game-ending just based on luck, plus any player mistake, hence the fact he's doing the dwarf cannon quest first. That being said, skill issue nonetheless.
14-year-old me lives vicariously through you, and I absolutely love every video idea you've ever had. Your commitment is unwavering, and it is SO satisfying to watch you achieve the greatest things in this game! Much love!
Freaking love the new series. Hardest part is knowing how hard of a challenge this will be for you, and the anticipation between episodes. Gonna be such a grind. I’m eagerly waiting xD
Some quick theorycrafting after this has been on my brain since it came out Magic/Ranged are his best combat options clearly. The Arceus library would be a great 0 threat option to level magic for access to high alch, so that he can semi-afk prayer and make gold on...something. Not sure what a good option is, that would require individual route assessment. Agility can be done safely at the Gnome Agility Course. Other than that, I'm not sure of any great options until higher levels Thieving can be lamped to 5, then done at stalls and the Sorceress's Garden Minigame safely. A fire cape is a surprisingly reasonable ask for the account. Not sure about other high-end goals because of random instances of small damage, but I could see it being an early goal for the account. I can't wait to see the level of risk he is looking to take with the account, as bossing content is going to be incredibly tense but doable.
This takes one of the big aspects of what made swampletics so great that was kinda missing from tileman. The whole, "what's even possible? " element was so much fun in swampletics. The room for experimentation is huge with this though, and who knows what the true limits are.
His one inventory slot character was a really fun concept too, I actually enjoyed that one the most out of them all simply because he had to completly alter his way of thinking to acheieve even the most simplest of goals
Honestly man Swampletics was epic and unique, but not really my thing to keep up with. Obviously settled was incredibly impressive as well and McTile was cool, but none of those videos truly kept me on the edge of my seat like this one. This one is truly something special. I popped off when you fixed the rail man. You struck gold, can't wait to see where this one goes!
Settled the type of guy to post a 20 minute video of himself fixing railings and has EVERYONE including myself, super invested. cant wait to see more of the series man!
I don't even play Runescape for years now, played it mostly as a kid, being 32y o now, I'm glad TH-cam got that channel on my main page one day and I could've experienced the Tileman idea, and now this which is even more interesting and devastating 😂. What a creative idea to change whole perspective and way of playing such an old game :) . Kudos to you Settled and I wish you achieving your goals and succeeding in your new journey! I will be a part of it, watching safely from a side for sure, good luck! 😁
Incredible editing and storytelling! I'm not very sure how interested i'll remain in the account. Extreme consequences always have interested me less than exploring the limits of the ruleset, so the whole account deletion i cannot care for, instead of a "i'm no longer allowed to do this because i took damage from it". Furthermore, there is of course the fact that this is very much an execution based challenge, with the incredibly interesting earlygame challenge (which i will almost definitely watch), but once prayer flicking and other mechanics start entering the picture, the question semi-shifts from "what is possible without taking damage" vs "what -can i do- without taking damage". To an extent, it shows to me the difference of an account progress game vs a save-file progress game on a 1-hit challenge. Nonetheless you'll make an amazing series out of it, and i hope you really enjoy playing the game in a new way with this challenge! Remember to balance your mental health, enjoyment of the game, real life events with your content creation!
The cry's of "noooo" on Account 13's 6th rail failing really sounded like Woody in Toy Story 1 when his match gets blown out before he lights the rocket.
What i love the most about watching settled's videos is how exciting he can be about, normally, super small things. It is such a joy to hear how happy he is that he has done a thing which on normal accounts are super simple, but because he does challenge runs, it is not, haha.
LUDICROUS CONCEPT HERE!!! You really leveled up on the editing for this one and your storytelling has already hit the ground running on just the first episode alone! I'm REALLY looking forward to tuning into Mr. 108's journey every week
Actually, the odds are pretty easy to calculate: There are three possible outcomes from trying to repair the fence: - Success, 0.24 of the time - Damage, (1 - 0.24)/2 = 0.38 of the time - Debuff, (1 - 0.24)/2 = 0.38 of the time Importantly, since after the debuff you can just try again, we can treat any attempt where you get the debuff as though you didn't try at all. That gives you the adjusted success rate of (0.24)/(0.24 + 0.38) per attempt, and raising that to the 6th power gives you the exact chance of success, which is around 1/297.
Settled I gotta hand it to ya. My life isn't in a bad spot by any means - you're not a singular light that exists for me. In fact I have a lot that makes me happy right now and I'm grateful for it. But god damn do you genuinely brighten my days when you have a series going and I see that new upload on my feed.
Welp, he’s done it again. Congratulations, I’m invested in this series already and I’m jealous to those of you starting this in a few years time who can binge a load! Episode 5 is my favourite.
This is quite possibly going to be the greatest OSRS TH-cam series out there EVER!!! I’ve been on the edge of my seat since the first second. It’s so suspenseful, so surprising, so unexpected! I can’t wait to see where this goes!!! 😃😃😃 Keep it up my guy! - Machinist_2
Your ability to withstand punishment continues to impress, can't wait to see how this series unfolds. Best of luck with the series, and hitting 1M this year!
Since the announcement video I've been trying to imagine what Settled might have come up with.. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine he would manage to make me care so much about the RNG of fixing railings in the Dwarf Cannon quest. GOAT
This is unreal bahahahah. The only thing more impressive than your creativity is your tenacity, man. I’m so stoked to see how far you can take this series
If anybody is curious about the math: The probability of one success can be calculated as follows. probability of sucess on first roll = .24 (24%). This is given by mod ash. The probability of sucess on the second roll means combining the probability of failing the first roll, the probability of not taking damage, and the probability of success for the new attempt. Probability of failing the first roll is 1-(.24) = .76 (76%) Probability of not taking damage: Since there are 4 possible outcomes that are equally likely, and two of them involve not taking damage (reduce crafting/strength), The probability of not taking damage is .5 (50%). The probability of rolling success for an individual attempt is .24 (24%) as previously established by mod ash. So the probability of success on the second roll is (.76)*(.50)*(.24) = 0.0912 (9.12%) This can keep repeating indefinitely, and for each successive roll you must contribute another chance of failure multiplied by the chance of taking damage, as well as the final chance of successfully completing the task. So the chance of success on the nth roll will be ([0.76*0.50]^n)*0.24 All of this is for the very first attempt. To calculate the total probability of success for this first attempt, you must add together all of the individual probabilities of success for each amount of rolls. P(Sucess) = P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Sucess on 2nd roll) + ... + P(Sucess on nth roll) Since the above process can go on indefinitely until you either fail and take damage, or succeed, this will be an infinite sum of the form: P(Success) = 0.24 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^1 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^2 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^3+... This infinite sum just happens to be a geometric series, which typically look like this: a + ar+ar^2+ar^3+... In this case, a = 0.24, and r = [0.76*0.5] = 0.38 the sum of an infinite geometric series can be calculated using the following formula: S = a/[1-r] Using this formula, and the fact that the probability of success is in the form of an infinite geometric series, we can finally calculate the probability of successfully fixing the first rail without taking damage: P(Success) = 0.24 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^1 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^2 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^3+... = 0.24/[1-0.38] = 0.38709677 ( ~ 38.7%) From there, the probability of completing 6 rails in a row without taking any damage is just taking this probability and raising it to the 6th power. P(Success 6 times in a row) = P(Sucess)^6 = (0.38709677)^6 = 0.00336447484 (~ 0.33%), which is very close to 1/299 :)
This is unreal bahahahah. The only thing more impressive than your creativity is your tenacity, man. I’m so stoked to see how far you can take this series 🥳
Every time settled starts a new series It shocks me at just how much stronger whatever he’s smoking has become to make this man want to do this. This is PSYCHOTICALLY MASOCHISTIC.
Taking into account that failing to fix a railing first try has a chance to not damage you and let you try again changes the probability from 24% to 0.48/1.24 which is about 38.7%. With this altered probability, the probability of fixing 5 railings (at level 1 crafting, per account) is then 0.869156055%, or about 1 in 115. Seeing that happen twice (lowlife 13 and 108) before even hitting 109 is pretty good luck! Blessed series.
Really hyped for this series, I wasn't a fan of tileman because it was just normal RS but with an extra grind on top, this feels like an actual challenge just like Swampletics back in the day. Can't wait for more episodes!
The level of dedication to such an insane undertaking is staggering. I truly feel like Settled alone has the sheer grit, dedication, and determination to accomplish this absolutely insane task. I wish you all the luck for the episodes to come, and you best believe I’ll be looking forward to every upload here on out. After watching the rise and triumph of both Swampletics and McTile, I know in my heart of hearts that Settled can do this!
108 is a pretty interesting number to be the "Lucky" account considering it's significance in Buddhism In Japan, at the end of the year, a bell is chimed 108 times in Buddhist temples to finish the old year and welcome the new one. Each ring represents one of 108 earthly temptations (Bonnō) a person must overcome to achieve nirvana
Dude, you said this would be bugnuts insane, but this is SO far beyond anything I could have ever expected. Will absolutely be tuning in every single Wednesday after classes to see you remind me what the definition of determination is!
I was genuinely upset that the video was over. I have watched all of your series, and I can't wait for the next episode. This is god-tier content. And hell, I don't even play osrs anymore.
I can't think of any other content creator that could pull this concept off and actually have me thinking 'how long and how far can he go?!' You're one in a million, man. Can't wait for the frequent updates, always love the stuff you put out! Best of luck!!!
With the fence math, you can figure it out without simulation because of a really cool trick. You can nullify the "roll again" by just using the ratio of success to failure. 24% success, 38% fail, 38% re-roll So we can see our ratio of success is 24/(24+38), or 24/62, which is ~38.7% That is the total chance of rolling only ties until you win. So then we can just put in a ^6 = 0.03364% And 1/ans to get 1 in 297.2 Which is surprisingly accurate to your simulation, you were only 1% off P.S. on a 15min/run pace, that is a 74 hour grind :) And with your lvl 40 strate, the last one is 62.5% so the overall chance becomes 0.05432% or 1 in 184.1 Making it a 46 hour grind on average (plus whatever the time for the craft grind is)
You said “if I can’t read the title and know what the series is, I don’t wanna do it” if that still rings true I’m very excited to see how this plays out.
Do you remember when they hit 200m accounts? They love that kind of shit even if we know that over half the accounts are bots 😂 they're about to sell Jagex again for like 4th time in a decade. Keep those numbers padded
@@jayzillawashere The last sale was to an investment company, they typically apply some changes to increase profits and essentially "flip" the company they bought by selling it with huge profits in a few months, it was never intended to be owned by them for a long time.
@@valkoroska2369 I've actually seen other people say the same thing since I posted this. They let the bot farms run up the player count and subscription base before they try to offload the whole company 🤣 and then when the new management comes through you can expect some ban hammers in the short term
Finally got around to watching this, you are 100% the Christopher Nolan of RS videos, the Scorcese, the GOAT. You're one of the best storytellers on YT and frankly you deserve an a few Oscars.
fiiine you can like the video since its a brand new series (PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE)
Go to strms.net/factor75_settledrs and get 50% OFF your first Factor75 box + Free Wellness Shots for Life! Two free wellness shots per order with an active subscription. Thanks to Factor75 for sponsoring the video!
that bloody door bell sound got me.. went to answer the door twice
so question, how are you paying for all the accounts membership to even be able to do the quest?
@@horizonbumpy2828It's only 10m gp
seriously fix random lines in your video series or i will unsub and click ///youtube tell never suggest your channel again.seriously theys line make me think that my tv,phone or monitor is failed cuse i see lines
@@horizonbumpy2828 he buys bonds on his main and converts the bonds into bond codes, then redeems them on the hcim
I can't believe I spent all that time making the plugin only for you to go and MESS IT ALL UP by DYING. You could've at least tried...
You're goated
Shoutout to Gudi for how polished that plugin is, that transition with the trees and death appearing looked so cool.
made me lose interest and skip through most of the vid
@@zingo1848 made me gain interest and I watched through every second of the entire vid with maximum attention
@@zingo1848nobody asked
Wish it was in the plugin hub
That plugin is sooo cool.
A video about repairing a fence in a 20 year old MMO did not need to go this hard. Banger first episode
Only Settled could make a 20 minute nailbiter out of a video game character fixing a fence.
You are not wrong, insane how on edge we could be ... to see if a man could fix a fence without jamming a finger lmao.
So true 😂
Rofllll
Lol seriously
Only settled
Settled single handedly raising bond prices with this series
Just this video alone, If that is account number 108, then we are already over 1B spent in bonds for this series.
Small price
Just wait till FlippingOSRS and Flipping RS find out
@@whynotp2p not for me, I can't keep up with these bond prices smh
can you "facotry reset" an account?
Settled once again changing the game. You're crazy! 10/10
👀
no lies detected
1/1 technically!!
@@Jonathanhsax lmao beat me to it
Yooooo I remember you from my childhood! Last place I expected to be remembered of some good times.
I would have never thought watching someone trying to do dwarf cannon without taking damage for 20 mins would be riveting content. But settled always finds a way.
Not for me. I enjoy his grinds, the dedication, the info, and the story he paves along the way. Straight up RNG farming just doesn't appeal to me. Same reason I've never cared for RNG heavy speedruns
@@bbbbbbb51that’s fair. But settled did mention the early game is the only time to do this. He explained having to RNG grind for an item, or two for the sake of the runs mid game. These risky RNG plays are how the account is born and how it will inevitably die. I doubt every episode from here on out is going to be another gamble. The sunk cost will break him
It's settled, he always finds a way
@@Nikki-plays-gamesfor sure! I'm super excited for the series. Just this episode didn't tickle my fancy
@@bbbbbbb51 ohh so it's not only just me? Good!
I don't like the whole Idia of this. I like limitations, grinds, challanges... But this seems like it's just a RNG fest followed by long grind and then another RNG fest.
It's just to much IMO
I don't know how you keep finding ways to make this game less fun to play and simultaneously more fun to watch.
other way around. He's the real winner here since he actually gets to play.
@@snared_ yeah no. 😂
@@snared_ "play"
@@snared_ RS is boring to play TBH
@@ThatGuy-ep7xq literally idle game that requires almost constant attention is not fun, who woulda thunk... That gives me an idea though, I should make runescape clone that's just an idle game but without any new mechanics unlike crap that's out there.
Gudi did such an incredible job on the plugin and settled is the perfect person to make this series!
dude can you shut up i’m trying to watch
Settled did such an incredible job on the video and framed is the perfect person to comment on it!
Anyone else scroll through the comments section looking specifically for a comment from Framed? 🤣
Bumder
Bonkers! Settled raises the bar once again!
I’m so excited to have new “Settled tortured himself” content. Easily my favorite thing to watch on TH-cam.. it should be said, I do like him. He just makes misery enjoyable to watch.
bro is like that guy that jumped on top of a cactus lmao
I love how the tension in the video INSTANTLY goes from 0-100 once the fucking railing grind is introduced.
Cause you think oh a railing can’t be that bad then the details get explained.
"Oh, railings, he'll probably have to make a few accounts to get over this RNG check!"
1 in 299 "oh.. Oh boy."
@@cupsnake7996 1 in 5200 first.
Literally had me almost needing a break from the video hahah. Was tense! How does one man have so much patience
@@kelwynmarr9209Because he’s getting paid and making $ from it.
Regardless of how many people try, nobody can quite match the cinematic feel of Settled. This was amazingly fun to watch, the storytelling just grabs your attention and drags you in. Can't wait to see what's in store for this insane account.
I think an interesting idea for the series might be to add extra lives to the account for completion of monumental achievements, like completing certain collection logs, beating certain bosses (is that even possible?), or certain levels of diaries/quests. Just as a one-time bonus for crazy achievements to allow for the slightest bit of breathing room.
Settled doesn’t settle for any breathing room.
This is going to be a new classic I can feel it. Masochistic playthrough.
What osrs account isn't a masochistic playthrough? 😂
Cant be masochism if you cant take any pain
wouldn't this make it the sadist account because he only likes dealing damage and not taking it?
@@titan_uprising nextgen opinion
@@dommyboysmith its only machoistic if u make it that way u can just afk skills and play casually and its super fun
There is no way he just made me watch 20min of fixing railings, and still got me excited for the next episode
he made you watch him deleting 108 accounts
What does this mean for the future of humanity?
I'm worried. Tune in next time to find out! 🙃😬
HE CAN'T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS
@@leeuwengames315 107
Damn he wasnt kidding when he said it will be sadistic
I'm curious if Settled realises how incredibly well made his videos are
20 minutes barely felt like 5, completely invested in it, already fiening to watch the next episode
There's a ton of work that goes into it. He's very well aware. No one makes really good videos like this with solid production value by just throwing them together.
I made a joke to a friend, "Did you hear settled's new youtube series? Every point of damage sends an electric shock to his ball sack" This is so much worse.
I'm giggling at the idea that you'd rather run electric current through your nuts than delete your RuneScape account. not that I disagree.
don't give him ideas! :P
is it?
worse?
😂😂😂
Settled in 2026: If I take damage on OSRS, I die IRL
Sounds more like Rendi
VR OSRS 2030: hardcore hardcore ironman, we are stuck in the game till someone completes it. If I die in game the VR headset will completely fry my brain and kill me IRL
@@justinb8297 Sounds familiar
💀
literal sword of Damocles
Only Settled can make a 20 min video on fixing a fence and have it be super entertaining and anxiety inducing. Looking forward to seeing what you do with this series!
Wait until he tries going into draynor manor and has to hope the trees hit 0s
It's because we know he's going to put the time in no matter what
@@21ps3freak He can just run another account up front that tanks the tree hit
His energy reminds me of solo mission
Settled is by far my favorite osrs content creator. The context, the commentary, editing, it's so well put together and he is so wholesome there is nothing more exciting to watch.
I love that even though he can bank, he kept the gp in his inventory the whole time and dropped all the bowstrings. Man lives as a UIM by default
Fucking wild concept, can’t wait to see how this plays out.
Man's really pushing Runescape into a Dark Souls-esque hellscape.
I find Dark Souls easier than trying to switch prayers on Jad.
At least when something swings their weapon in dark souls, you know when the damage is going to register.
its more like trying to beat darksouls hitless but you make a new steam account every attempt
@@PhrozenFox you find dark souls easier than *possibly* having to switch your prayer every SIX seconds? Jad is not hard brother, you’re letting your brain get the best of you
No, in dark souls you have a fighting chance. This is just a new level of insanity 👀
Dark souls is overrated imho
Not gonna lie that Pinball event animation you did genuinely kinda scared me, also was really funny. Great content as usual, still the best runescape TH-cam by far
I've genuinely never played RS at all. But I *LOVE* game knowledge. Thinking about how much you learn, use, abuse or take advantage of in each series is crazy and definitely one of my favorite parts about watching these. And the statistics just *chef's kiss* Good luck Settled, you're gonna need it!
I actually had the thought that a no damage run would be your next challenge, then IMMEDIATELY dismissed the thought because it would be TOO INSANE. So psyched!
This is gonna be the series where Settled finally makes a video, somewhere along the journey, admitting he bit off more than he could chew. Love the videos man & best of luck!
He didn’t really give himself a big ultimatum goal though. Just a “let’s see how far we can take this” with Jad maybe implied in the background
He did that with Tileman though, at first the requirement for a tile was scaling so they would get more and more expensive.
Absolutely insane. Never have I been so invested in a hammer drop on a metal fence. Here's to another great series!
I am so happy that this series is going to have a weekly episode, waiting for weeks at a time for McTile was painful.
Settled dude, you're one of the few people on this planet who can get hundreds of thousands of people invested in a pixel character fixing a railing on a game.
You are elite kind of talented.
Or the lot of you are either bored and jobless... or absolutely brainless..just my opinion. Don't take it to heart. 😂
For anyone wondering, the mathematics (without simulations) of why it is approx. 1/300 are as follows: the probability of successfully completing a rail (with retries) is 0.24+0.38*0.24+0.38^2*0.24+... = 0.24/(1-0.38) ~= 0.3871, because it is a geometric sum. The 0.38 is the probability of a retry after failing (because (1-0.24)/2 = 0.38). Then you simply need 6 independent successes in a row, so that would be (0.3871)^6 = 0.003364 or a one in 297.2232 chance of successfully repairing 6 rails.
I have actually spent the last hour calculating this to make a comment about it myself lmao
@@sun3k I started trying to calculate it, then decided to ctrl+f for "0.24" before committing, lmao. Glad I did, this comment saved me an hour of time!
@@Zxv975 I managed to think of a worse way to do this by swapping it to a fail chance and then swapping it to a success chance again. Anyway TIL the funny infinite sum formula
Thanks for your explanation. However, I don't really understand the 0.38 chance of a retry after failing. Why is it not just 0.5 as we either take damage or get a de-buff? Thanks in advance!
@@skullie007 Good question. 0.38 combines the 0.5 from the retry and the 0.76 from the failure. 0.5 × 0.76 = 0.38.
In words, the successful scenarios are:
1) You succeed first try. 0.24 chance.
2) You fail the first try, but then you survive the 50/50. You then succeed on the next try. 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.24 chance.
3) You fail on the first try, survive the 50/50, fail the next try, survive the 50/50 then finally succeed on the next try. 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.76 × 0.5 × 0.24.
... and so on. You add these all together to get the total probability via the infinite sum approach.
You can see you get 0.76 × 0.5 in each of these terms, which they've just combined as 0.38.
"I needed someone who looks like they could handle the stress of this challenge" literally just makes keanu reeves
Solid production! RuneScape really does have that sandbox DNA 💯
I love this channel so damn much, and I'm terrified that you've invented a series with a constant, easy to hit failure state. I'm so in for spending the next few months stressed for like 20 minutes a week over this
it is legitimately stressful, as the VIEWER. this is impressive.
This might be the most ridiculous and difficult challenge ever tried on runescape and im all here for it. This series is gonna be a cult classic
generally cult classics are underappreciated and underexposed - i seriously doubt thats the case with anything settled puts out
The single inventory slot was more insane than this tbh
@@GoofballLOL hard disagree. 1 inv slot had more annoyances obviously but this acc is literally game-ending for any mistake
@@isaacjacob3590 It's game-ending just based on luck, plus any player mistake, hence the fact he's doing the dwarf cannon quest first. That being said, skill issue nonetheless.
@@FirstCrimson Not luck, he'll need a lot of planning and game knowledge. You underestimate how easy it is to be damaged in this game.
14-year-old me lives vicariously through you, and I absolutely love every video idea you've ever had. Your commitment is unwavering, and it is SO satisfying to watch you achieve the greatest things in this game! Much love!
Freaking love the new series. Hardest part is knowing how hard of a challenge this will be for you, and the anticipation between episodes. Gonna be such a grind. I’m eagerly waiting xD
asian andy
Wtf Asian Andy doing here XD
better not ascend boy
Asain Andy the goat 🐐🐐🐐
Wtf Asian Andy
HOW?! HOW DO YOU KEEP COMING UP WITH ABSOLUTE BRILLIANCE FOR YOUR SERIES OVER AND OVER AGAIN?!
The time this guy has had to think of series while grinding our other series is probably the key 😊
It's less about "coming up" with the idea which isn't hard at all. It's about him actually managing to tolerate it long enough to succeed!
He has a muse..
Some quick theorycrafting after this has been on my brain since it came out
Magic/Ranged are his best combat options clearly. The Arceus library would be a great 0 threat option to level magic for access to high alch, so that he can semi-afk prayer and make gold on...something. Not sure what a good option is, that would require individual route assessment.
Agility can be done safely at the Gnome Agility Course. Other than that, I'm not sure of any great options until higher levels
Thieving can be lamped to 5, then done at stalls and the Sorceress's Garden Minigame safely.
A fire cape is a surprisingly reasonable ask for the account. Not sure about other high-end goals because of random instances of small damage, but I could see it being an early goal for the account. I can't wait to see the level of risk he is looking to take with the account, as bossing content is going to be incredibly tense but doable.
This takes one of the big aspects of what made swampletics so great that was kinda missing from tileman. The whole, "what's even possible? " element was so much fun in swampletics. The room for experimentation is huge with this though, and who knows what the true limits are.
His one inventory slot character was a really fun concept too, I actually enjoyed that one the most out of them all simply because he had to completly alter his way of thinking to acheieve even the most simplest of goals
It’s only the first episode of the series and it already gets you incredibly invested. Great job Settled :)
You continue to surprise and impress with progressively more difficult accounts. Keep it going!
Honestly man Swampletics was epic and unique, but not really my thing to keep up with. Obviously settled was incredibly impressive as well and McTile was cool, but none of those videos truly kept me on the edge of my seat like this one. This one is truly something special. I popped off when you fixed the rail man. You struck gold, can't wait to see where this one goes!
Settled the type of guy to post a 20 minute video of himself fixing railings and has EVERYONE including myself, super invested. cant wait to see more of the series man!
I don't even play Runescape for years now, played it mostly as a kid, being 32y o now, I'm glad TH-cam got that channel on my main page one day and I could've experienced the Tileman idea, and now this which is even more interesting and devastating 😂. What a creative idea to change whole perspective and way of playing such an old game :) . Kudos to you Settled and I wish you achieving your goals and succeeding in your new journey! I will be a part of it, watching safely from a side for sure, good luck! 😁
If you haven’t yet, you should watch swampthletics too. This man is amazing and I’m on the same boat as you.
Incredible editing and storytelling!
I'm not very sure how interested i'll remain in the account. Extreme consequences always have interested me less than exploring the limits of the ruleset, so the whole account deletion i cannot care for, instead of a "i'm no longer allowed to do this because i took damage from it".
Furthermore, there is of course the fact that this is very much an execution based challenge, with the incredibly interesting earlygame challenge (which i will almost definitely watch), but once prayer flicking and other mechanics start entering the picture, the question semi-shifts from "what is possible without taking damage" vs "what -can i do- without taking damage".
To an extent, it shows to me the difference of an account progress game vs a save-file progress game on a 1-hit challenge.
Nonetheless you'll make an amazing series out of it, and i hope you really enjoy playing the game in a new way with this challenge! Remember to balance your mental health, enjoyment of the game, real life events with your content creation!
This series is gonna be INSANE! I honestly hope this series goes on for a long time!
Honestly dude after Swampman & Tileman you'd think there would be nothing left. But you are something else my dude, what a pleasure to watch!
The cry's of "noooo" on Account 13's 6th rail failing really sounded like Woody in Toy Story 1 when his match gets blown out before he lights the rocket.
Underrated comment
This series is going to break my heart I just know it.
What i love the most about watching settled's videos is how exciting he can be about, normally, super small things. It is such a joy to hear how happy he is that he has done a thing which on normal accounts are super simple, but because he does challenge runs, it is not, haha.
LUDICROUS CONCEPT HERE!!! You really leveled up on the editing for this one and your storytelling has already hit the ground running on just the first episode alone! I'm REALLY looking forward to tuning into Mr. 108's journey every week
Agent 108
Actually, the odds are pretty easy to calculate:
There are three possible outcomes from trying to repair the fence:
- Success, 0.24 of the time
- Damage, (1 - 0.24)/2 = 0.38 of the time
- Debuff, (1 - 0.24)/2 = 0.38 of the time
Importantly, since after the debuff you can just try again, we can treat any attempt where you get the debuff as though you didn't try at all. That gives you the adjusted success rate of (0.24)/(0.24 + 0.38) per attempt, and raising that to the 6th power gives you the exact chance of success, which is around 1/297.
good god man it has been 12 minutes
@@TheTurboNut its just highschool math dude relax
Dude. Shut up lol.
ok but you have to admit running 100M simulations is way cooler than this
Whats the logic behind raising it to the 6th power?
Settled I gotta hand it to ya. My life isn't in a bad spot by any means - you're not a singular light that exists for me. In fact I have a lot that makes me happy right now and I'm grateful for it. But god damn do you genuinely brighten my days when you have a series going and I see that new upload on my feed.
Imagine being the dwarf just watching a mountain of bodies that all look alike trying to fix a broken fence
Settled's single handed attempt to drive up the cost of bonds 😂
I found the whale guys
single handedly? what about the constant wave of bots? pretty sure they use more bonds on a daily basis
@@tylers92 shhhh we don't talk about those. They make us sad.
@@007privatei don’t talk about them yet they run the entire economy in the game
Welp, he’s done it again. Congratulations, I’m invested in this series already and I’m jealous to those of you starting this in a few years time who can binge a load! Episode 5 is my favourite.
Mine is 17
@@AssassinDatAzz it’s a banger for sure!
Really sucked when he died in episode 22. Totally unexpected.
@@The_Somewhere_Monarch account 69,420 will be the one for sure!!!! The others were good attempts
Can't wait for a broken railing to be placed near the Dark Wizards in a few weeks
This is the most excited I've been for a Settled series since Swampletics. I also liked the locked room puzzles, I hope those come back someday.
This is quite possibly going to be the greatest OSRS TH-cam series out there EVER!!! I’ve been on the edge of my seat since the first second. It’s so suspenseful, so surprising, so unexpected! I can’t wait to see where this goes!!! 😃😃😃 Keep it up my guy! - Machinist_2
I never could have predicted this.. when you mentioned your new series was gonna be crazy I truly wondered how far you could push it
Your ability to withstand punishment continues to impress, can't wait to see how this series unfolds. Best of luck with the series, and hitting 1M this year!
Since the announcement video I've been trying to imagine what Settled might have come up with..
Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine he would manage to make me care so much about the RNG of fixing railings in the Dwarf Cannon quest.
GOAT
This is unreal bahahahah. The only thing more impressive than your creativity is your tenacity, man. I’m so stoked to see how far you can take this series
Swampman never fails to amaze me when it comes to finding ways to play the game as masochystically as possible. Godspeed, Settled.
How is every series more hype from the onset than the previous, this is insane
If anybody is curious about the math:
The probability of one success can be calculated as follows.
probability of sucess on first roll = .24 (24%). This is given by mod ash.
The probability of sucess on the second roll means combining the probability of failing the first roll, the probability of not taking damage, and the probability of success for the new attempt.
Probability of failing the first roll is 1-(.24) = .76 (76%)
Probability of not taking damage:
Since there are 4 possible outcomes that are equally likely, and two of them involve not taking damage (reduce crafting/strength), The probability of not taking damage is .5 (50%).
The probability of rolling success for an individual attempt is .24 (24%) as previously established by mod ash.
So the probability of success on the second roll is (.76)*(.50)*(.24) = 0.0912 (9.12%)
This can keep repeating indefinitely, and for each successive roll you must contribute another chance of failure multiplied by the chance of taking damage, as well as the final chance of successfully completing the task.
So the chance of success on the nth roll will be ([0.76*0.50]^n)*0.24
All of this is for the very first attempt. To calculate the total probability of success for this first attempt, you must add together all of the individual probabilities of success for each amount of rolls.
P(Sucess) = P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Sucess on 2nd roll) + ... + P(Sucess on nth roll)
Since the above process can go on indefinitely until you either fail and take damage, or succeed, this will be an infinite sum of the form:
P(Success) = 0.24 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^1 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^2 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^3+...
This infinite sum just happens to be a geometric series, which typically look like this:
a + ar+ar^2+ar^3+...
In this case, a = 0.24, and r = [0.76*0.5] = 0.38
the sum of an infinite geometric series can be calculated using the following formula:
S = a/[1-r]
Using this formula, and the fact that the probability of success is in the form of an infinite geometric series, we can finally calculate the probability of successfully fixing the first rail without taking damage:
P(Success) = 0.24 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^1 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^2 + 0.24*[0.76*0.5]^3+... = 0.24/[1-0.38] = 0.38709677 ( ~ 38.7%)
From there, the probability of completing 6 rails in a row without taking any damage is just taking this probability and raising it to the 6th power.
P(Success 6 times in a row) = P(Sucess)^6 = (0.38709677)^6 = 0.00336447484 (~ 0.33%), which is very close to 1/299 :)
Holy shit
Good work dude. Looks right to me
Thanks, I saw the sim and thought it was odd because it was solvable. No need to check now lol
Well done
I’m just impressed that you formatted this all in a TH-cam comment, nice work I give you an A
What a series, can't wait to see what the future holds for Lowlife108
This is unreal bahahahah. The only thing more impressive than your creativity is your tenacity, man. I’m so stoked to see how far you can take this series 🥳
Love how much a video about just pickpocketing a man and doing dwarf cannon can be so entertaining and climatic
Settled's youtube channel is just a confession of being masochistic through ruescape
Oh man I've been dying for the start of the new series. This sounds absolutely insane. I love it. You're one crazy bastard and I love you for it.
Every time settled starts a new series It shocks me at just how much stronger whatever he’s smoking has become to make this man want to do this. This is PSYCHOTICALLY MASOCHISTIC.
*Sees a settled upload*
"...this changes everything"
Taking into account that failing to fix a railing first try has a chance to not damage you and let you try again changes the probability from 24% to 0.48/1.24 which is about 38.7%. With this altered probability, the probability of fixing 5 railings (at level 1 crafting, per account) is then 0.869156055%, or about 1 in 115. Seeing that happen twice (lowlife 13 and 108) before even hitting 109 is pretty good luck! Blessed series.
Really hyped for this series, I wasn't a fan of tileman because it was just normal RS but with an extra grind on top, this feels like an actual challenge just like Swampletics back in the day. Can't wait for more episodes!
The level of dedication to such an insane undertaking is staggering. I truly feel like Settled alone has the sheer grit, dedication, and determination to accomplish this absolutely insane task. I wish you all the luck for the episodes to come, and you best believe I’ll be looking forward to every upload here on out. After watching the rise and triumph of both Swampletics and McTile, I know in my heart of hearts that Settled can do this!
This is basically medieval times simulator where if you got injured or sick you’re probably going to die anyway lol
I think the average lifespan was more than 20 minutes though
Life in the European Middle Ages was not that fraught.
...Though it is very funny to imagine that it was.
@exantiuse497 considering the mortality rate of infants back in those days im not too sure about the accuracy of that comment lmao
Seeing you have fun doing something that’s incredibly tedious is both entertaining and inspiring.
You’re a real professional settled.
108 is a pretty interesting number to be the "Lucky" account considering it's significance in Buddhism
In Japan, at the end of the year, a bell is chimed 108 times in Buddhist temples to finish the old year and welcome the new one. Each ring represents one of 108 earthly temptations (Bonnō) a person must overcome to achieve nirvana
Ngl tileman did nothing for me, this series has instantly brought me back to the channel. Cannot wait to see more!
I loved Tileman.
Dude, you said this would be bugnuts insane, but this is SO far beyond anything I could have ever expected. Will absolutely be tuning in every single Wednesday after classes to see you remind me what the definition of determination is!
I was genuinely upset that the video was over. I have watched all of your series, and I can't wait for the next episode. This is god-tier content. And hell, I don't even play osrs anymore.
This is a completely new level of RuneScape masochism 😂 Can't wait for episode 2, keep up the great work!
the dedication is insane - mad respect and good luck on this journey! we will be supporting you the whole way!
Wearing headphones and thought my doorbell rang at 0:08. It's way too late for that, so naturally, my heart is pounding. Thanks.
😂
The dedication to these fun challanges is seriously impressive. Can't wait to watch this series :D
rates of tetanus deaths at the dwarf gate mysteriously skyrocketed
This is gonna be my new favorite 9 hour long series
The incredible detail is what set apart settled from the rest. The plugin function added the much need realism to the series that without
I can't think of any other content creator that could pull this concept off and actually have me thinking 'how long and how far can he go?!' You're one in a million, man. Can't wait for the frequent updates, always love the stuff you put out! Best of luck!!!
Looks to be another incredible series on the way. My favorite RuneScape creator and just favorite in general, you’re talented man keep it up
With the fence math, you can figure it out without simulation because of a really cool trick.
You can nullify the "roll again" by just using the ratio of success to failure.
24% success, 38% fail, 38% re-roll
So we can see our ratio of success is 24/(24+38), or 24/62, which is ~38.7%
That is the total chance of rolling only ties until you win.
So then we can just put in a ^6 = 0.03364%
And 1/ans to get 1 in 297.2
Which is surprisingly accurate to your simulation, you were only 1% off
P.S. on a 15min/run pace, that is a 74 hour grind :)
And with your lvl 40 strate, the last one is 62.5% so the overall chance becomes 0.05432% or 1 in 184.1
Making it a 46 hour grind on average (plus whatever the time for the craft grind is)
nice job. kinda crazy the amount of math optimization one can consider when playing a game like runescape
@@FT029Many games can involve math like that. It’s not some unique thing.
Also ads time actually making the accounts
You said “if I can’t read the title and know what the series is, I don’t wanna do it” if that still rings true I’m very excited to see how this plays out.
First OSRS video I have watched since 2020, glad I came back. Loved it! ❤
This is gonna be great. Can’t wait and every Wednesday is exciting! There’s a special breed and you are part of that Settled.
If I was a Jagex mod and I had any idea that it was Settled making 100+ accounts I’d deffo be like “Hol’ up. Let him cook.”
Do you remember when they hit 200m accounts? They love that kind of shit even if we know that over half the accounts are bots 😂 they're about to sell Jagex again for like 4th time in a decade. Keep those numbers padded
@@jayzillawashere The last sale was to an investment company, they typically apply some changes to increase profits and essentially "flip" the company they bought by selling it with huge profits in a few months, it was never intended to be owned by them for a long time.
@@jayzillawasheregl with the microtransactions
@@valkoroska2369 I've actually seen other people say the same thing since I posted this. They let the bot farms run up the player count and subscription base before they try to offload the whole company 🤣 and then when the new management comes through you can expect some ban hammers in the short term
Only Settled can make a video about fixing railings for for 21 minutes and it still be a banger.
Finally got around to watching this, you are 100% the Christopher Nolan of RS videos, the Scorcese, the GOAT. You're one of the best storytellers on YT and frankly you deserve an a few Oscars.
I can just imagine all the bonds that people will burn in this game mode. Looking forward to this series!
woo more bond price inflation!!!!!!
This is the same guy that spent $1b on a rune crossbow right?
@@BenzinilinguineAnd at least a bil in bonds based on Settled’s character count