It is fun to see the reaction of engineers vs finance people to Tesla's presentation. Toyota engineers stopped their production line after tearing down a second model Y and seeing how far behind they are. After this those Toyota engineers might become monks. But the finance people are saying there wasn't much here. I hope those finance people all sell their stock and buy Toyota and GM stock so Tesla shares drop and I can get an even bigger discount.
Well, there is not much here. And Tesla is falling more and more behind. And all the bullshit they have been doing over the years are now starting to become more and more obvious.
Optimus video clip was my high point of Investor day. 1. finger dexterity - picked up a machine nut. 2. Teamwork. 3. eye-hand coordination with ordinary hand power tool fastening robot parts in a jig. 4. Robots building robots - most awesome Easter egg for those in the know.
Another glimpse of the future. It has been a long time comming. But now the rubber is hitting the road with the advent of Optimus. I am so glad Elon and the team are delivering on this front. This will change our world as we know it.
@@bradtownsend1457 For sure Brad. I have a lot of faith in Elon as a good custodian for the tech. He is showing this in his reaction to OpenAI being now subverted by Microsoft and others into a closed system that is going to be manipulated without public knowledge.
Hi, John, You mentioned that you could only go forward and back on the TH-cam video 10 seconds at a time. Once the video is paused, you can move forward and back one frame at a time by using the comma and period keys. THe shift of those are < and > to give you a reminder of the keys and direction. If you have your settings for repeating keys held down,, you can move forward and back reasonably smoothly to exactly where you want. I wonder how many other tricks like this are hidden in the YT user interface? Dave
So many people just have no idea how hard it is to do the simple but dexterous things we see in this video. Walking around picking up tools and parts while working together on a project is more than I expected by orders of magnitude. Walking un tethered and self powered in basically a year is mind blowing. Boston dynamics bots were tethered for years before they could match this feat. And this wasn't a totally scripted video of something flashy just to play for the audience. This was a group of robots learning to do tasks on their own. There isn't the person hiding from view controlling them. To reach down and pick up an electric driver and then pick up the socket they need shows software that sees and recognizes objects that aren't in a very precise place. That's stunning.
Plugging IN conduit and cables could be incredibly important for any bots they send to Mars. It sure looks like there is enough progress already in the basic design to make it worthwhile to include several Optimus bots on the first missions to Mars. I want a t-shirt decorated with an image of Optimus using a feather duster to clean off the solar panels of Perseverance.
It's worth pointing out that both robots were struggling a bit with their tools. And that's actually a good thing. It proves that the video isn't fully scripted, instead the robot is really figuring it out in real time.
@@TheSpartan3669 Have you ever seen anyone going that far? Have you ever seen Tesla spending so much resources on lying? This is Tesla, not Nikola. Does it make any sense? Investors don't care about the robot yet, they don't understand it. And Tesla didn't even make a big deal out of it, they didn't even talk about the video, it was just playing in the background.
@@CiaranMcHale The lighting is most likely for hiding the sensitive details. And no, it's not fake. I would be able to tell, no matter how high-quality it is. And other experts said the same.
I've watched 99% of Tesla events that have been aired... and the Robots building a Robot mad my jaw literally drop! That's saying a lot from a company that has made sure I am always amazed and delighted.
Excellent insights - thanks John and Scott! Investor's Day was an IQ test. I think most engineers who think deeply about how things work were blown away by Investor's Day. I was giddy, especially that Tesla's dominance isn't so obvious that everyone will rush in to buy more stock. Waiting with bated breadth for your take on the convergent manufacturing plans.
@Dr.Know-it-all Knows it all 2:40 you can use [LEFT/RIGHT] cursor keys on keyboard to skip in 5 sec. increments, and use [J] and [L} for 10 sec. increments, also use [K} for play/pause :) 7:20 when Dr. Scott described the TeslaBot having fingers that are spring-loaded and only uses an actuator to close, this is exactly how bats sleep hanging from trees, only in reverse, Bats have the default tension closing their claws, enabling them to hold onto tree branches in their sleep :)
John, play it 0.5x speed next time. :) Imagine where this will be in 6-12 months. Real science fiction. Overlooked by Wall Street, but likely the biggest product Tesla will ever make in terms of societal impact.
Prediction for AI day 3: After being shown robots doing several simple tasks we get a fly through of the assembly line showing Optimus building Optimus at an acceptable speed without a human in sight.
FSD started very quickly too, which lead to unrealistic expectations. It is incredible progress though. I could see some limited use cases in “the wild” in at least a year, more likely two. Probably not working in nursing homes.
@@TheScottShepard Optimus uses FSD too, not starting from scratch. And it's actually a way much simpler problem, mostly because mistakes don't kill people. Also the road system is extremely messy with all the crazy edge cases, and tons of other drivers are all doing their unpredictable things, while in a factory everything is highly organized and standardized. Factories are already designed around automation, even tasks that require a human are simplified to the limit and and precisely scripted. Ideal first job for a robot. Driving is almost the other end of the spectrum.
You missed part where the robot with the vertical screwdriver tool missed first the screw and went down beside of it. So he went back up again, corrected the mistake and tried it again and this time he didn't missed it.
@@andrasbiro3007 It does make it more likely that it isn't scripted, but it can't be ruled out. Tesla knows people are going to go frame by frame over their videos and so showing "imperfection" may be more important than showing the robot doing a task perfectly. One way to make it seem more real would be to have a robot do something incorrectly at first before succeeding the next time. I'm hesitantly optimistic, but I'd really like to see some live footage instead of a pre-recorded video. I hope next year's Investor Day, if not before then, we can see such a demonstration.
I would love you guys to speculate on how they tell the robot what to do. That is, what is the interaction between autonomous actions to achieve tasks and the control mechanism that tells it what tasks to do. What might that “command language” look like?
I had a thought along the lines of could they have multiple 2, 3..10 robots development areas. They have one robot training for walking, another training for tool handling, another training for vision etc. Development on multiple areas simultaneously to iterate as rapidly as possible.
A fun way to put and compare the bot imo is is to compare it to a newborn child. I think it was first showcased in aug 2021? So that makes it a age of 15 months now ~. Comparing that to a newborn baby they are roughly at the same stage in their walking and grabbing phases of life. However I would believe that the bot will become evidentally faster learner then human as time progresses. At 3~ years of age id assume it has outpaced the newborn child quite drastically. Should be extremely interesting to follow
This was the High Point of the whole presentation as far as I am concerned. If the rest of it has been handled like this, it would've generated quite a bit of excitement..
After the modeling the entrance area of Giga Texas after Optimum Prime's head, i was really looking forward to see any progress on the robot front. Thank you for this detailed review.
Hot Take - they have sensor data of every rough spot in the roads in NA. Tesla could be selling near-realtime road survey data .. every pothole, every frost heave, include traction data.. they can report icing and other traction issues to trip planners and local responders. Long term what's going to happen is they have a low resolution map of every FSD disengagement.. They will enable level five geofenced to roads with multiple 9's reliability.. and their 'fence' will be by road segment.. not by type or by area. Trip planner can tell you up front if your trip has a 0 disengagement option.
What is interesting to me is that Elon said that FSD was NOT AGI in his opinion. Instead it was a bunch of neural networks. Optimus is using the same FSD engine, ergo Optimus is not AGI. Given Elon’s comments during the presentation on how he is worried about AI, and sorry that he may have contributed to it in founding OpenAI, perhaps not having Optimus be true AGI is intentional?? If Tesla can make a truly useful general purpose robot without making it a true AGI, wouldn’t that be preferable? A fantastic tool for humans rather than a competitor to replace humans?
Very good and interesting points. Here is my take, for Open AI yes Elon funded it to have an open-source AI project to answer google AI projects. but seeing it from the inside he was one of those calling for AI regulations very early on. A few years back. On the other hand, FSD can only drive while AGI knows everything else. Imagine a highly sophisticated humanoid robot way more capable than us and has all the information that we can find in all search engines. That will be very scary. So most definitely Optimus is intended to have limited intelligence only for a particular purpose even if it has the capability to learn in its environment. Even if Elon or Tesla didn't start these kinds of projects somebody else will.
I said it earlier. It would be way cool if the next AI day Tesla had a Cybertruck self-drive out on stage and then have an Optimus climb out of the vehicle!
We are so lucky that Elon put the bot under the Tesla umbrella, he could have launced a new company and sold stock in that. Instead we investors in Tesla get it for free !!
@@toadsauce8091 Yeah maybe they will even produce without Kuka robots on the production line..... That Tesla wants to let human labor do by robots is evident, so the next factory where they can test it out, they will do, the only question is whether Optimus will be advanced enough to make sense. And for sure they would not put it in the front line, more in preparational work, where there is enough time buffer, if something is not working.
I disagree. This humanoid robot smells like an Elon Musk ego project to me. Custom robots would be better. This thing is a waste of Tesla's time and resources.
Great commentary from the both of you on this. Not sure if you've watched the video in high-res (the settings wheel isn't showing HD or 4K on the TH-cam video in your clip), but just wanted to point out that the video is actually available in 4K in the settings and you can see a lot more detail on that setting. At lower resolutions TH-cam creates a lot of artefacts that make it look a bit unrealistic, but on the 4K setting it's much more obvious that it's real.
Still watching Investor Day but I'm SO upset about stock going DOWN! What is the matter with these people? All this incredible stuff the Tesla people have done, are doing, the leadership that has moved a them. The blinders, the shortsightedness of the investing populous.
8:04 train Optimus to play the guitar would be a perfect case. Not only has the left hand hold the cords, but at the same time it has to balance the whole guitar together with the right arm elbow. If, or better "when" they accomplish that, it would be amazing !
Thanks for discussing one of my favorite topics. Great job Dr Gibbs and Dr Scott. :). I noticed that there are special equipment used for drilling to minimize the weight that TeslaBot has to carry like the one used to drive the bolt on the knee joint. TeslaBot is not required to have super human strength to be useful.
So where did they put the cooling radiator for the liquid cooling system ?. Or are they using the chest aluminum plate as the passive heatsink for fanless system ?.
@9:05 My MS has absolutely fried my sense of _proprioception_ so this robot moves like *_I_* do. (Slowly, carefully, while checking with my vision for feedback.) That is [expletive] *_amazing!_*
It's only a matter of time before we see a video of a complete build of a new robot in a few minutes, and at that point mass production is not far away.
I personally think that nobody in the industry will be remotely able to compete with Tesla in the future! The continuing drive towards efficiency and automation is never heard off and these humanoid robots will change everything. If I was the competition I would be living a real nightmare!
Toyota does a pretty good job of building cars. Tesla started from ground zero, so are just now catching up. I'm not a Tesla detractor (I bought stock on December after all), but I'm just tired of all the Kool-Aid in the comments.
@@alansnyder8448 Toyota, is that the manufacturer that was still busy with hydrogen cars and wasn’t able to keep the wheels on their electric car. A false claim by the way from their part for god knows what reason. That company that had 1 electric car, stopped selling it and wanted to buy back the sold cars? You’re talking about them? The most in-depth company on the face of the planet where the hydrogen lunatic just stepped aside to indeed leave command for successor with brains who ordered to tear down a model Y to see how it’s really done. There’s no legacy auto maker even near what Tesla is doing. Have a look @ Sandy Munro. Toyota will exist in the future because the lunatic just stepped down, it was almost game over. It’s not about building cars but about building electric cars. There is a huge difference in that. Toyota is nowhere at this moment.
John, fyi you can control TH-cam videos more granularly by pausing, and using the comma to go in reverse frame-by-frame and the period to go forward frame-by-frame.
Nice video, thank you gentlemen. Watching Optimus at station doing a task, it occured to me that having the ability to create an anchor point to the floor at will with either foot at any moment via electromagnets would eliminate the disadvantage of having to balance untethered to anything while doing a task at station. This would greatly simplify balance compute load during working tasks and give Optimus the ability to leverage its strength and dexterity to its maximum potential. A smart-floor installed in the work zone, mapped out, could provide the housing for most of the heavier components and Optimus could control it's application and performance through its feet. This would give Optimus some of the advantages a stationary assembly robot has when working from a fixed location on a pivot. Additionally, Optimus' mobility performance, just walking around, could be greatly sped up and improved within the work zone by strategically pulsing the electromagnetic foot/floor attachment force. This would be like having a super strong dexterous body and lightweight magnetic feet that turn on and off as you walk and provide incremental amounts of magnetism to facilitate the walking or running task. This would be the factory Optimus. Perhaps homes could eventually have smart floors for the home Optimus.
Love the insight on this! Y'all caught some details I missed, and made me think about some aspects like the cooperation between the multiple units! It's amazing to see all this developing, and I always look forward to hearing you guys break down the details!
FYI, pneumatics have much finer control over movement than step motors (which are commonly used in electro-mechanical movement) and can exert variable pressure while maintaining a position without generating heat - Optimus may be using an amalgam of electrical and pneumatic systems - time will tell...
@15:25 You mean like how on one of the B-Roll videos, the formed stainless sheet picker moves the sheet steel from the trimmer cutter to the next phase of the stamping process? Yeah, I noticed how naturally flowing that movement is.
Honestly they can put the torso or the whole robot on a automotive arm and make the arm maneuver bumbl into position to work on hand kematics on the assembly line for simple bolting. This is great but as you mentioned it’s to slow for a assembly line. But on a kematic arm this could stress it to automotive speeds with using off the shelf hand tools if that’s the route they wish to go
The issue i saw with the Optimus video is that every action of the bot, there was an edit in the video. Makes me think every step had several takes and the success made it in the video.
I visualize Tesla using ‘drone fleet coordination” software to synchronize teams of bots working on the six different portions of the car assemblies in an F1 pit crew type fashion! Crazy!!!
I'd propose a different hand design, symmetric with 3 fingers and 2 thumbs. The thumbs have swivel mounts so they can curve the same direction as the fingers, or oppose the fingers for grasping. Being symmetric, it would work equally well for right and left hands, no need for a "right hand" and "left hand" version.
There are actually 5 bots shown in the video. In the shot where they are posing for the camera in the top right corner you see one standing off to the side.
You should note the most important and most overlooked point. Elon said eventually the robot production would exceed the automobile profits. He wasn’t overly direct about it, but if you don’t understand what he is implying, Robot profits will make the automobile production look like a toy sideline. The current performance and development you focused on is a distraction.
Steven at STMProblem quoted Elon as saying we may exceed a 1:1 ratio of bots to humans. Steven calculates that as being more than 8b humanoid robots. That requires a mental reset.
@@kimollivier You are wrong. On Wednesday, Elon Musk predicted that the ratio of AI-powered humanoid robots to human beings "might be greater than one to one." >> Maybe you should listen again to both the Investor Day presentation and Steven's recap.
Not to to throw a wet blanket on this but it looks like an animation Nvidia can do- check out the shadows - very strange Tesla is going back to Nvidia for AI. - I’m always skeptical when information is name dropped. Elon’s Investor Day looks to me to be a page out of Nvidia- all glitz no substance - that’s just me. BTW I’m a Tesla investor with over 30 years investing in Tech stocks. The totality of Investor Day makes my spider senses tingle- big time
Luv your show. Keep up the good work. I just wonder if this brief presentation at Investor Day seemed unreal and very CGI? You got someone who could look into that?
They showed the bots on stage at AI day, along with videos of it moving in a space with people, so it wouldn’t make any sense for them to fake this. Additionally you can see the bot miss the screw holes a few times, so if it was fake it wouldn’t have made those mistakes
I loved the Optimus clip. I only wish they could bring them out on stage and do exactly what they did in this clip to shut up the naysayers that believe this was all CGI.
It is fun to see the reaction of engineers vs finance people to Tesla's presentation. Toyota engineers stopped their production line after tearing down a second model Y and seeing how far behind they are. After this those Toyota engineers might become monks. But the finance people are saying there wasn't much here. I hope those finance people all sell their stock and buy Toyota and GM stock so Tesla shares drop and I can get an even bigger discount.
Well, there is not much here. And Tesla is falling more and more behind. And all the bullshit they have been doing over the years are now starting to become more and more obvious.
very well said!! :D
Not so impressed with 3D rendered Tesla Bots. I wonder why he didn't show some real robots.🤔
@@fredrik3685 Ask any 3D graphic designer and an animator before you say something laughable like that.
@@fredrik3685 it wasn’t a rendering lol. It was video.
Optimus video clip was my high point of Investor day. 1. finger dexterity - picked up a machine nut. 2. Teamwork. 3. eye-hand coordination with ordinary hand power tool fastening robot parts in a jig. 4. Robots building robots - most awesome Easter egg for those in the know.
EXACTLY....WOW..!
It’s cgi lol
@@modellfrickler1883 Avenue 5 S1E8, if you have watched it, you know how that comment sounded.
It's disappointing that Optimus' humanoid dexterity has not evolved to permit it to give doubters "the finger."
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck cope harder
Another glimpse of the future. It has been a long time comming. But now the rubber is hitting the road with the advent of Optimus. I am so glad Elon and the team are delivering on this front. This will change our world as we know it.
Hope it is a Change for good !
@@bradtownsend1457 For sure Brad. I have a lot of faith in Elon as a good custodian for the tech. He is showing this in his reaction to OpenAI being now subverted by Microsoft and others into a closed system that is going to be manipulated without public knowledge.
Hi, John,
You mentioned that you could only go forward and back on the TH-cam video 10 seconds at a time. Once the video is paused, you can move forward and back one frame at a time by using the comma and period keys. THe shift of those are < and > to give you a reminder of the keys and direction. If you have your settings for repeating keys held down,, you can move forward and back reasonably smoothly to exactly where you want. I wonder how many other tricks like this are hidden in the YT user interface?
Dave
In TH-cam settings you can also change how many seconds a default "skip" is. With 5s being minimum and what i usually use.
5:41 FYI You can move the video frame by frame by pressing the comma and period keys on your keyboard.
So many people just have no idea how hard it is to do the simple but dexterous things we see in this video. Walking around picking up tools and parts while working together on a project is more than I expected by orders of magnitude. Walking un tethered and self powered in basically a year is mind blowing. Boston dynamics bots were tethered for years before they could match this feat. And this wasn't a totally scripted video of something flashy just to play for the audience. This was a group of robots learning to do tasks on their own. There isn't the person hiding from view controlling them. To reach down and pick up an electric driver and then pick up the socket they need shows software that sees and recognizes objects that aren't in a very precise place. That's stunning.
I watched the movie I Robot the night before Investor's Day, so it was a bit freaky to see something so similar in the real world.
plot twist, the movie is more real than this
no worries
Plugging IN conduit and cables could be incredibly important for any bots they send to Mars. It sure looks like there is enough progress already in the basic design to make it worthwhile to include several Optimus bots on the first missions to Mars.
I want a t-shirt decorated with an image of Optimus using a feather duster to clean off the solar panels of Perseverance.
It's worth pointing out that both robots were struggling a bit with their tools. And that's actually a good thing. It proves that the video isn't fully scripted, instead the robot is really figuring it out in real time.
The lighting in the video seemed strange to me, so I have a feeling the video might have been a computer-generated simulation.
@@CiaranMcHale no way its CGI rendered, because it cost higher than the actual robot
No it doesn't. You can script in minor "mistakes" for the express purpose of having people believe it wasn't scripted.
@@TheSpartan3669
Have you ever seen anyone going that far?
Have you ever seen Tesla spending so much resources on lying? This is Tesla, not Nikola.
Does it make any sense? Investors don't care about the robot yet, they don't understand it. And Tesla didn't even make a big deal out of it, they didn't even talk about the video, it was just playing in the background.
@@CiaranMcHale
The lighting is most likely for hiding the sensitive details.
And no, it's not fake. I would be able to tell, no matter how high-quality it is. And other experts said the same.
I've watched 99% of Tesla events that have been aired... and the Robots building a Robot mad my jaw literally drop! That's saying a lot from a company that has made sure I am always amazed and delighted.
Thanks. And Elon said that his robots can think out of the box by watching and solving problems when told to do so. So cool
Well he technically said that’s what they want them to be able to do. I doubt they are at that stage currently, but it is a solid goal for the future
Excellent insights - thanks John and Scott! Investor's Day was an IQ test. I think most engineers who think deeply about how things work were blown away by Investor's Day. I was giddy, especially that Tesla's dominance isn't so obvious that everyone will rush in to buy more stock. Waiting with bated breadth for your take on the convergent manufacturing plans.
The end product is going to be insane, I can’t wait to see it fully functional and in mass production 🤖🤖🤖🤖
I can't wait too long either, it's going to be like in the movies with robots walking the streets.
@@ricarditoortiz1242 cool stuff
@Dr.Know-it-all Knows it all
2:40 you can use [LEFT/RIGHT] cursor keys on keyboard to skip in 5 sec. increments, and use [J] and [L} for 10 sec. increments, also use [K} for play/pause :)
7:20 when Dr. Scott described the TeslaBot having fingers that are spring-loaded and only uses an actuator to close, this is exactly how bats sleep hanging from trees, only in reverse, Bats have the default tension closing their claws, enabling them to hold onto tree branches in their sleep :)
You can use period and comma to increment frame by frame as well.
John, play it 0.5x speed next time. :)
Imagine where this will be in 6-12 months. Real science fiction. Overlooked by Wall Street, but likely the biggest product Tesla will ever make in terms of societal impact.
Impact of non-polluting cars and trucks will be much more on everyone in the short term.
For frame by frame: Pause then "." for one frame forward "," for back.
Seeing the Teslabot begin to increase the efficiency of its motions is fascinating. I can't wait to see more blending of its actions.
Prediction for AI day 3:
After being shown robots doing several simple tasks we get a fly through of the assembly line showing Optimus building Optimus at an acceptable speed without a human in sight.
John, let him talk! You bring him on as an expert and then regularly talk over him. We want to hear what he has to say. Thank you!
My sentiments exactly
I think that Optimus will scale before FSD. The progress is phenomenal & nothing less than we expected.
That sounds very unlikely.
FSD started very quickly too, which lead to unrealistic expectations. It is incredible progress though. I could see some limited use cases in “the wild” in at least a year, more likely two. Probably not working in nursing homes.
@@TheScottShepard
Optimus uses FSD too, not starting from scratch. And it's actually a way much simpler problem, mostly because mistakes don't kill people. Also the road system is extremely messy with all the crazy edge cases, and tons of other drivers are all doing their unpredictable things, while in a factory everything is highly organized and standardized. Factories are already designed around automation, even tasks that require a human are simplified to the limit and and precisely scripted. Ideal first job for a robot. Driving is almost the other end of the spectrum.
You missed part where the robot with the vertical screwdriver tool missed first the screw and went down beside of it. So he went back up again, corrected the mistake and tried it again and this time he didn't missed it.
Yes, that seems very remarkable to me that the robot saw that it missed the mark and then corrected itself.
And proves that it's not a scripted motion.
@@andrasbiro3007 It does make it more likely that it isn't scripted, but it can't be ruled out. Tesla knows people are going to go frame by frame over their videos and so showing "imperfection" may be more important than showing the robot doing a task perfectly. One way to make it seem more real would be to have a robot do something incorrectly at first before succeeding the next time. I'm hesitantly optimistic, but I'd really like to see some live footage instead of a pre-recorded video. I hope next year's Investor Day, if not before then, we can see such a demonstration.
I would love you guys to speculate on how they tell the robot what to do. That is, what is the interaction between autonomous actions to achieve tasks and the control mechanism that tells it what tasks to do. What might that “command language” look like?
I had a thought along the lines of could they have multiple 2, 3..10 robots development areas. They have one robot training for walking, another training for tool handling, another training for vision etc. Development on multiple areas simultaneously to iterate as rapidly as possible.
And once one bot knows how, all bots will know how...knowledge growing beyond even exponential growth rates. The Borg.
Tesla just moved the goalpost for the competition.
A fun way to put and compare the bot imo is is to compare it to a newborn child.
I think it was first showcased in aug 2021? So that makes it a age of 15 months now ~. Comparing that to a newborn baby they are roughly at the same stage in their walking and grabbing phases of life. However I would believe that the bot will become evidentally faster learner then human as time progresses. At 3~ years of age id assume it has outpaced the newborn child quite drastically.
Should be extremely interesting to follow
That is a good analogy, its already walking and using powertools and its not even a 2yr old yet!
@@alexaleman16 yupp people are sleeping 🙏🙏 gonna be interesting say the least. Didnt even think about the tools it were using
I haven't heard anyone saying this, but it was obvious to me this was a family photo with their newborn which they were unveiling.
This was the High Point of the whole presentation as far as I am concerned. If the rest of it has been handled like this, it would've generated quite a bit of excitement..
After the modeling the entrance area of Giga Texas after Optimum Prime's head, i was really looking forward to see any progress on the robot front. Thank you for this detailed review.
Hot Take - they have sensor data of every rough spot in the roads in NA.
Tesla could be selling near-realtime road survey data .. every pothole, every frost heave, include traction data.. they can report icing and other traction issues to trip planners and local responders.
Long term what's going to happen is they have a low resolution map of every FSD disengagement.. They will enable level five geofenced to roads with multiple 9's reliability.. and their 'fence' will be by road segment.. not by type or by area. Trip planner can tell you up front if your trip has a 0 disengagement option.
Volvo already have a network for reporting slippery conditions. Nothing new.
What is interesting to me is that Elon said that FSD was NOT AGI in his opinion. Instead it was a bunch of neural networks.
Optimus is using the same FSD engine, ergo Optimus is not AGI.
Given Elon’s comments during the presentation on how he is worried about AI, and sorry that he may have contributed to it in founding OpenAI, perhaps not having Optimus be true AGI is intentional??
If Tesla can make a truly useful general purpose robot without making it a true AGI, wouldn’t that be preferable? A fantastic tool for humans rather than a competitor to replace humans?
Very good and interesting points. Here is my take, for Open AI yes Elon funded it to have an open-source AI project to answer google AI projects. but seeing it from the inside he was one of those calling for AI regulations very early on. A few years back. On the other hand, FSD can only drive while AGI knows everything else. Imagine a highly sophisticated humanoid robot way more capable than us and has all the information that we can find in all search engines. That will be very scary. So most definitely Optimus is intended to have limited intelligence only for a particular purpose even if it has the capability to learn in its environment. Even if Elon or Tesla didn't start these kinds of projects somebody else will.
It uses the vision system of fsd, but it'll incorporate different networks to understand language, for example. You are assuming things there...
@@lechavs True, guilty as charged. 😉
No one has created "AGI"
I said it earlier. It would be way cool if the next AI day Tesla had a Cybertruck self-drive out on stage and then have an Optimus climb out of the vehicle!
When the robot rocks a "hang loose"🤙 hand gesture😀
Thanks again for another great video. It was great to hear two experts go through the video and explain everything that was in it.
when Lars & Franz made their presentation, am i the only one who thought of that old SNL "Hans & Franz" skit?
Since I saw that Optimus prime video I was excited for your analysis, thank you!
We are so lucky that Elon put the bot under the Tesla umbrella, he could have launced a new company and sold stock in that. Instead we investors in Tesla get it for free !!
Very true, I am very happy with what I saw in the presentation and would not wonder, if GF Mexico will make use of a few Optimus robots.
The concept is to use the FSD software on the bot. This is the right move, otherwise, the bot development won’t work or very difficult without FSD.
@@nilsfrederking62 I doubt it, labor is pretty cheap in Mexico.
@@toadsauce8091 Yeah maybe they will even produce without Kuka robots on the production line..... That Tesla wants to let human labor do by robots is evident, so the next factory where they can test it out, they will do, the only question is whether Optimus will be advanced enough to make sense. And for sure they would not put it in the front line, more in preparational work, where there is enough time buffer, if something is not working.
I disagree. This humanoid robot smells like an Elon Musk ego project to me. Custom robots would be better. This thing is a waste of Tesla's time and resources.
Optimus is going to be amazing. Imagine what it will be able to do 5 or 10 years from now.
Great commentary from the both of you on this. Not sure if you've watched the video in high-res (the settings wheel isn't showing HD or 4K on the TH-cam video in your clip), but just wanted to point out that the video is actually available in 4K in the settings and you can see a lot more detail on that setting. At lower resolutions TH-cam creates a lot of artefacts that make it look a bit unrealistic, but on the 4K setting it's much more obvious that it's real.
Once optimus can perform money making tasks it's all gravy after that with constant improvements.
It's disappointing that Optimus' humanoid dexterity has not evolved to permit it to give doubters "the finger."
He could, but he can not understand they are serious...
Still watching Investor Day but I'm SO upset about stock going DOWN! What is the matter with these people? All this incredible stuff the Tesla people have done, are doing, the leadership that has moved a them. The blinders, the shortsightedness of the investing populous.
Short sellers have to dump before price goes up.
It's just shorts hammering down the price. Happens every Tesla good news-announcement.
Well, as always - they promise a lot, fake some videos of products they are doing, over promise and so on. Reality is catching up.
I bought 500 more shares at 187.
@@Xanthopteryx Just like you get paid to hate Tesla.
8:04 train Optimus to play the guitar would be a perfect case. Not only has the left hand hold the cords, but at the same time it has to balance the whole guitar together with the right arm elbow. If, or better "when" they accomplish that, it would be amazing !
Amazing progress. Can't wait to see it walk more normal, less like the Honda robot
@4:11 Anybody notice how *Optimus SubPrime* is looking more and more like the robots in the 2004 *Will Smith* vehicle _I Robot._
Life imitating art?
Thanks for discussing one of my favorite topics. Great job Dr Gibbs and Dr Scott. :). I noticed that there are special equipment used for drilling to minimize the weight that TeslaBot has to carry like the one used to drive the bolt on the knee joint. TeslaBot is not required to have super human strength to be useful.
So where did they put the cooling radiator for the liquid cooling system ?. Or are they using the chest aluminum plate as the passive heatsink for fanless system ?.
Great job john
The machine that builds the machine!!!
@9:05 My MS has absolutely fried my sense of _proprioception_ so this robot moves like *_I_* do. (Slowly, carefully, while checking with my vision for feedback.)
That is [expletive] *_amazing!_*
1:25 You can advance paused video one frame at a time with comma (back one frame) and period (forward one frame).
It's only a matter of time before we see a video of a complete build of a new robot in a few minutes, and at that point mass production is not far away.
I personally think that nobody in the industry will be remotely able to compete with Tesla in the future! The continuing drive towards efficiency and automation is never heard off and these humanoid robots will change everything. If I was the competition I would be living a real nightmare!
Toyota does a pretty good job of building cars. Tesla started from ground zero, so are just now catching up.
I'm not a Tesla detractor (I bought stock on December after all), but I'm just tired of all the Kool-Aid in the comments.
@@alansnyder8448 Toyota, is that the manufacturer that was still busy with hydrogen cars and wasn’t able to keep the wheels on their electric car. A false claim by the way from their part for god knows what reason. That company that had 1 electric car, stopped selling it and wanted to buy back the sold cars? You’re talking about them? The most in-depth company on the face of the planet where the hydrogen lunatic just stepped aside to indeed leave command for successor with brains who ordered to tear down a model Y to see how it’s really done. There’s no legacy auto maker even near what Tesla is doing. Have a look @ Sandy Munro. Toyota will exist in the future because the lunatic just stepped down, it was almost game over. It’s not about building cars but about building electric cars. There is a huge difference in that. Toyota is nowhere at this moment.
Presentation was about the future and how they are going to get there, it was all about a vision of a possible future buy Tesla.
John, fyi you can control TH-cam videos more granularly by pausing, and using the comma to go in reverse frame-by-frame and the period to go forward frame-by-frame.
Nice video, thank you gentlemen. Watching Optimus at station doing a task, it occured to me that having the ability to create an anchor point to the floor at will with either foot at any moment via electromagnets would eliminate the disadvantage of having to balance untethered to anything while doing a task at station. This would greatly simplify balance compute load during working tasks and give Optimus the ability to leverage its strength and dexterity to its maximum potential. A smart-floor installed in the work zone, mapped out, could provide the housing for most of the heavier components and Optimus could control it's application and performance through its feet. This would give Optimus some of the advantages a stationary assembly robot has when working from a fixed location on a pivot. Additionally, Optimus' mobility performance, just walking around, could be greatly sped up and improved within the work zone by strategically pulsing the electromagnetic foot/floor attachment force. This would be like having a super strong dexterous body and lightweight magnetic feet that turn on and off as you walk and provide incremental amounts of magnetism to facilitate the walking or running task. This would be the factory Optimus. Perhaps homes could eventually have smart floors for the home Optimus.
BumbleC was flat laying down on the table in the background!
8.14
Love the insight on this! Y'all caught some details I missed, and made me think about some aspects like the cooperation between the multiple units! It's amazing to see all this developing, and I always look forward to hearing you guys break down the details!
FYI, pneumatics have much finer control over movement than step motors (which are commonly used in electro-mechanical movement) and can exert variable pressure while maintaining a position without generating heat - Optimus may be using an amalgam of electrical and pneumatic systems - time will tell...
Why didn't you adjust the playback speed?
Most amazing video on earth right now.
@15:25 You mean like how on one of the B-Roll videos, the formed stainless sheet picker moves the sheet steel from the trimmer cutter to the next phase of the stamping process?
Yeah, I noticed how naturally flowing that movement is.
Honestly they can put the torso or the whole robot on a automotive arm and make the arm maneuver bumbl into position to work on hand kematics on the assembly line for simple bolting. This is great but as you mentioned it’s to slow for a assembly line. But on a kematic arm this could stress it to automotive speeds with using off the shelf hand tools if that’s the route they wish to go
Imagine seeing these in a couple of years moving at 10x speed of a human putting parts together.
Would be nice if you guys didn’t talk over each other
Dr. Know it all gets too excited and tries to talk over the guest. It is the host's fault. He needs to be more calmer.
The issue i saw with the Optimus video is that every action of the bot, there was an edit in the video. Makes me think every step had several takes and the success made it in the video.
Of course it was, and reposition (manually) and so on. As like all their videos of "amazing" things.
@@Xanthopteryx Ok paid hater.
@@Xanthopteryx like how those rockets are landing?
@@toadsauce8091 All fake, the rocket doesn't land it pops up from inside the barge. It's just a trick🤩
@@neeljavia2965 Naaw, so cute of you thinking i get paid to tell the truth. Sadly, i do not. I tell the truth on my spare time. Unpaid.
When Optimus came into view I thought, at first, it was CGI
It’s cgi
@@modellfrickler1883 just like the moon landings?
@@toadsauce8091 believe this Elon nonsense when you want
I think they communicated, but the so did the '90s Furbys...
If it is a fluid, I hope a dielectric oil..
TY Dr kia (👌). It helps me refocus on other elements of Tesla. TY
THANKS FOR SHARING THIS INFO AND YOUR PUNS 🤗😁💚💚💚
Optimus: For the Cybertruck First Delivery Event! Climbing into the Truck, and Driving it Onstage! 🤔🧐🤓
Great video, thank you.
Your take is SO valuable in my quest to validate the future. Thanks. Cynical me says...." But this was pre programmed for the demo?"
I’m sure it was preprogrammed, but their vision system and walking and stuff was done by the bot, and that’s what I think is impressive about jt
Loved this!
Faster progress, faster advancement, faster!!!
*"goes to plug in cell phone. Jams plug into cell phone owner's brain instead"* got it.
I visualize Tesla using ‘drone fleet coordination” software to synchronize teams of bots working on the six different portions of the car assemblies in an F1 pit crew type fashion! Crazy!!!
For frame-accurate control in TH-cam, press the period and comma keys.
I'd propose a different hand design, symmetric with 3 fingers and 2 thumbs. The thumbs have swivel mounts so they can curve the same direction as the fingers, or oppose the fingers for grasping. Being symmetric, it would work equally well for right and left hands, no need for a "right hand" and "left hand" version.
There are actually 5 bots shown in the video. In the shot where they are posing for the camera in the top right corner you see one standing off to the side.
frame accurate while playing a youtube video is done with the [comma] and [dot] keys when the video is paused.
You should note the most important and most overlooked point. Elon said eventually the robot production would exceed the automobile profits. He wasn’t overly direct about it, but if you don’t understand what he is implying, Robot profits will make the automobile production look like a toy sideline. The current performance and development you focused on is a distraction.
Legacy one big overstatement
Tesla one big big huge understatement
👍
FYI.. the carrot keys on your keyboard allow you to go frame by frame on TH-cam
More than meets the eye
Steven at STMProblem quoted Elon as saying we may exceed a 1:1 ratio of bots to humans. Steven calculates that as being more than 8b humanoid robots. That requires a mental reset.
Nah he said productivity not numbers
@@kimollivier You are wrong. On Wednesday, Elon Musk predicted that the ratio of AI-powered humanoid robots to human beings "might be greater than one to one." >> Maybe you should listen again to both the Investor Day presentation and Steven's recap.
Are we seeing the crew of starship being trained for task for interplanetary?
Not to to throw a wet blanket on this but it looks like an animation Nvidia can do- check out the shadows - very strange Tesla is going back to Nvidia for AI. - I’m always skeptical when information is name dropped. Elon’s Investor Day looks to me to be a page out of Nvidia- all glitz no substance - that’s just me. BTW I’m a Tesla investor with over 30 years investing in Tech stocks. The totality of Investor Day makes my spider senses tingle- big time
Is HW4 on board? The extra processing power will come in handy as Optimus evolves.
There is not much extra processing power compared to HW3.
Boston Dynamics - "Hold my beer."
BD are doomed, they’ve been going for 30 years and never achieved anything remotely approaching this.
@@fredbloggs5902 Really 🤔?
@@kennyfordham6208 go see for yourself, doing backflips isn’t actually very useful, Google sold the company for a reason.
Luv your show. Keep up the good work. I just wonder if this brief presentation at Investor Day seemed unreal and very CGI? You got someone who could look into that?
It was real. Musk is a bit of a showman, but he's not a charlatan!
Of course it's CGI. Elon never said it was real.
They showed the bots on stage at AI day, along with videos of it moving in a space with people, so it wouldn’t make any sense for them to fake this.
Additionally you can see the bot miss the screw holes a few times, so if it was fake it wouldn’t have made those mistakes
Boston dynamics: prerendered cutscenes
Tesla: actual gameplay
You know, you can do frame-by- frame motion in youtube using the keyboard: use the period () keys.
When you guys do these robot videos, I always think of Bicentennial Man.
I loved the Optimus clip. I only wish they could bring them out on stage and do exactly what they did in this clip to shut up the naysayers that believe this was all CGI.
You know the Lego robot they have in reality can't even stand up without falling. With CGI it's easier to impress.
Remember, Elon said he has a whole room full of legs and arms.
Don't tell the cops.
@@andrasbiro3007 Where's the 'arm in that?
The finger moving is probably because the fingers move with something that was activated when the completed robot grabbed the arm.
Funny, the guy who edits my robot videos often cuts things that I (as an engineer) think are the MOST important thing. I feel your pain.
bot is going to be the manufacturing process for bot
Plastic palms are for high voltage systems for sure ;)
Optimus to the moon!!!!!