I think Optimus is going to align perfectly with Tesla's hyper agile methodology. I've seen many people say you don't need a human or a humanoid robot because you can just design it out and make everything run on a rail of some kind. They say things like that because they don't think 4th dimensionally. Rails and things don't change very fast and take a lot of time to design and implement. A human can adapt because we are evolutionarily built to be good at change and survival. Thus a humanoid robot can be given similar traits to do just that. So operationally the robot can adapt and change even better than a human in an agile environment, with very little instructions and no emotions.
YOU ARE CORRECT . . . RATHER THAT TAKING TIME OUT OF THE WORK DAY FOR THR ROBOT . . . THE ROBOT WALKS TO THE NEAREST CHARGER AND PLUGS I N. . . AS IT IS CHARGING ITS PROGRAM IS UPDATED FOR THE NEXT TASK , , , IT THEN WALKS TO THE NEXT (NEEDED) SPOT AND REPLACES A ROBOT THAT NEEDS A CHARGE , , , ALL ROBOTS WEAR AT THE SAME RATE THAT WAY AND CAN BE REPLACED WITH A NEW BATCH OF ROBOTS.
When the bot was screwing the leg, you can see that it missed the target twice and had to do a third attempt before actually driving in the screw. In 5 seconds, it showed the bot go "Oops, missed. Oops, missed again.. There we go.." Unless they purposely choreographed that mistake, it shows the bot is still learning through vision and can immediately take corrective actions.
Hand positioning trial and error would be great training datasets. Collect data from robots as they try multiple ways - then penalize bad grips and reward good ones...
@21:00 The choreography, like when the _drone_ flies through the *GigaBerlin* stamping machines without getting itself squashed, is much easier to coordinate between WiFi connected *ego* exclusion zones.
I sell a lot of the safety sensors used in factories. This is a great call as factories are loaded with expensive safety features that will no longer be needed. The savings on those alone are massive....but the savings on space and additional machinery are "giga!"
As for the choreography, occupancy network. As for "it's gonna perform movements and action macros using high level languages," its occupancy network is a form of visual logic language. I forgot which AI day it was (maybe even autonomy or battery day) but they showed an example of ego calculating a left turn merge into fast traffic with not much peripheral vision of what's coming from the right. The path planning and consideration of factors like ride comfort (and most likely even stuff like angular inertia affecting traction) IS the "turn hand upside down to most effectively bring the part with the intention of the next step," like make the turn most effectively with the intention of the next step (in this case being a successful merge with minimized ride comfort disturbance). Elon doesn't say they're trying to solve automation or something, he says they're trying to solve VISION. Adjusting balance for payload, there are already papers and algorithms for that and if Tesla's AI team is known for anything, it's taking those bleeding edge academic advancements and putting them into production processes. Also even Nvidia's keynote had examples of robots trained to measurable improvements in their assigned task using synthetic data and a digital twin. That's what's available now, and Amazon apparently used this process to improve their robots' marker recognition success rate from like 86.something to 98.something percent, I'd bet my life on the fact that Tesla had something similar and much less polished already up and running. I'm only 98% sure here but I'm pretty sure Tesla was the first to show their world-building software for synthetic data training.
Remember when Musk complained about the factory line speed and how it should be so fast that you have to calculate the effects that speed of wind should have on the products? Well I do, and with Optimus, not only will things get smaller, but they'll get faster. Much faster.
So what you are saying is that Optimus will be super human, not in strength but in how it can move and interact within the factory space, it won't get tired, it will not fail in the ways a human fails.
@no1youknowz think that some people today are on UBI and don't even know it. How many people just got made redundant in big tech? What were they doing all those years? Take soft drinks, Coca Cola employs hardly anybody in their bottling plants. It's all automated, you mix sugar with water and bottle it and load it into trucks - there's no humans involved except the truck driver. All the people work in sales and marketing, far more than they need. UBI? I think so.
@Dan Karau excellent point about 48 volts that would also enable Power Over Ethernet (POE) though Tesla may prefer a more robust connector more like a metal USB jack than a plastic brittle phone jack. POE would reduce cabling because the same cable would carry data, commands and power.
Great convo thanks! Mentioned in-situ charging for stationary work. If it’s anything Amazon warehouses and what I understand about Tesla manufacturing, there will be many stations that require majority of time in-situ, but frequent step out for items outside of stations. If true, they could do inductive charging through the feet while in situ- would never need to take a break. 🔥
Elon in older interviews about Freemont ramp problems aisd that most problems were caused by over automation of processes. They realized the "human factor" was needed for certain processes to work efficiently.
i wouldn't be surprised future versions of optimus will have liquid cooling. Imagine being in a cold location (outside) or even a hotter location. Air cooling is best when that temp is close to the desirable system temp. The NN processing unit and motors will get pretty hot and the batteries can be (eventually) cooled/heated to their optimum levels.
The strawberry field... it Optimus making more Optimus, making more Optimus... bet your bottom dollar.. Elon said, make me a robot that can assemble a robot. The rest we will do OTA later
I am currently reading “Mind Children” by Hans Moravec. Perhaps dated (1988) to the discussion of Optimus, I was none the less intrigued as to his comment of using humanoid knees for stepping over obstructions and foot mounted rollers (perhaps using stepper motors) for efficient movement on level surfaces. If means of both front and back vision was provided, there would be no need to pivot around to retrace steps.
When I was a young engineer, there was a peer working on a robotics project in the same factory. The two robots were named Laverne and Shirley. Anyone old enough to remember when that was and why?
As an agricultural researcher currently working on strawberry experiments I am confident that if tesla can make Optimus really good at picking strawberries they will make ass loads of money
Remember, Musk once said early on (the best I can do from memory) "I tried to automate (robots) too many jobs. There are some jobs that need to be done by humans." In comes Optimus.
Why wouldn't you customize (and modularize) the hands to have specialty tools, rather than having to grasp a drill/driver? Seems like that's a specialized thing that would be worth it for dedicated assembly tasks. Just make one of the fingers a rotating bit.
Optimus options may include an overhead plugin power cord for while it's in its work area. Another option is an additional external battery pack worn by Optimus like a back pack. It chargers up the internal battery while Optimus works then when empty it takes that off and puts it on charge then gets back to work until the backpack battery is fully charged again and the internal battery is getting low.
They'll just have multiple shifts of robots. Adding extra overhead cables causes risk of snags, thus accidents. Inductive charging adds cost of chargers plus installation, & they're less efficient (ie higher energy cost) than cables.
Visualising an Optimus factory floor. A tidy workshop can cut the job time in half & having a spanner-boy to tidy does just that. So if Optimus is the spanner boy, the workshop landscape changes. Your engineers become twice as productive & if Optimus is learning, the engineer’s work evolves to a higher level. Furthermore, there is a record for all Optimii to learn from simultaneously!
Maybe the batteries are two deep. Would that equal 48v which is the new wiring standard (I thought) Tesla might be pushing towards? (Correct my errors) 😅
I'm looking forward to when the Tesla bot drive the car off the line directly to the customer, then calls for an Uber to the a bus station where they board a Tesla bus back to the factory.
I think the reason they use 4680 cells as "ribs" is to reduce mass. The battery is part of the torso structure that includes the shoulder, neck, and waist joints.
Redoing the floor? When it's easier to have a 2nd shift that swaps out within seconds, eg during parts pickup so the workspace isn't complicated & the line never stops. Reduces wear on the robots/batteries & allows for maintenance/upgrades.
@@alexmanojlovic768 not to mention adding wireless charging increases the number of parts in the robot and therefore weight, and is also slow in comparison to high power cabled charging.
@@JoeLancaster but there's swathes of geniuses who've littered this video with "but induction charging, aren't I clever"... Even though EM clearly stated he's planning an 8hr battery life... 😱
Yes, MS and MX will become obsolete, but will eventually be replaced with larger, more luxurious versions of the more efficiently produced lower end versions. So it started with the high end models shifted to the cheapest models, and then will expand from there to fill the higher end models again. Similar to how dinosaurs were replaced by tiny mouse like mammals which then expanded up to tigers, elephants and whales. Evolution, survival of the most efficient.
If you do that you aren't using Optimus as a drop in replacement for humans and visa versa. If you modify the hand for that then you have to modify the tool which means you can't just grab something off the shelf and train Optimus to use it. You lose part of the reason you're building a humanoid robot to begin with. Tesla doesn't know where Optimus will end up outside of Tesla. What they do know is humans are already there.
Good idea, or the robot could communicate wirelessly to the tool which could also have hand triggers for humans, but the robot would merely have hold the tool. In sci fi, the ends of the robot arms have two or three different tools attached that it can rotate between.
16 batteries = 48volt. My guess they have two 16 cell packs in parallel. We know from the slide about the 48Volt architecture that Optimus is on a 48V system. That would give them the power to operate for 8 hours or so.
4680s are structural. Put them in the spine. If battery goes faulty take the batteries off like an exoskeleton/waistcoat. Top half head and arms, bottom half legs and processor.
I think optimus should have dual battery packs that are hot swappable So that it could replace its own battery when it needs to be recharged. No downtime due to charging, Bot could swap out the low pack and keep on going.
@@SeanLavery Just add wireless charging to its feet and have chargers in the floor at each "standing" work area so it always has a larger charge before walking somewhere.
@@jax7585 I actually DM's this exact point to John last week. I don't think it makes sense anymore.. too much unnecessary cabling. Plus Tesla designers are masters at simplification so
Talking over each other is what happens when brilliant people are collaborating. the ideas flow so fast that they can't get it out in a choreographed Manner.
While watching the Optimus video with your commentary about how the robot movement could have been scripted I feel that Tesla has already gone beyond the preliminary prototype scripting and has already trained the Optimus AI image set to take care of the major tasks needed for the particular job. Keeping the focus on Tesla vertical integration it would make sense to have a robotic production line that uses the right sized Dojo training super computer to improve performance for tuning the limited subset of actions related to Optimus assigned tasks. Opens up a whole world of new product lines dedicated to robotic labs and educational systems for all age groups.
How is the robot in-line with the Tesla mission to accelerate sustainable energy?, they asked (myself included). It will accelerate production of evs. And other items, energy storage systems.
In a warehouse where the robot is sedentary with a specialized job, would you even need more than a hip up torso? A sedentary job would not require a battery. Where a robot moves from one place to another within a single station the robot torso could be move by a linear rail. Most jobs in the warehouse do not require legs on robots. Would it be worth the costs to have a few different models of Teslabot?
I would expect Optimus' charging to be wireless, so just position a pad where it would stand to do a job and it re-charges without the need for any breaks!
An obvious but important idea: With AI, Optimus, on an assembly line, will learn how to do repetitive tasks faster and faster. Eventually, Optimus will be moving much faster than a human worker ever could. While moving quickly, once it has completed task, Optimus can quickly send a signal saying the task is finished -- all of this will speed up the assembly line. When I was watching the AI Day videos, Optimus was walking and moving slowly, and I semi-consciously thought "that thing moves slowly". I semi-consciously thought: "That thing is going to slow down the Assembly line." Then I thought this thought. It has the potential to speed up the assembly.
I had heard that hardware 4 would not be available to an existing Tesla. I was told today by the Alpharetta Service Center that it will be, just keep checking the upgrades section on the app. I think it is currently going out in new production cars. Let us know if you hear it is released for our old cars. Likely to be expensive, as it is described as extensive hardware changes. Also waiting for Tesla insurance in Georgia. Tesla Pi phone seems to be a pipe dream.
Elon said an upgrade would not be possible some time ago. It seems unlikely as they are different shapes so do not fit in the bay. The wiring is different. But with enough determination, and money, anything is possible.
@@モッシヒーロー-m5o Elon did not say he was going to make a Pi phone. I think he was asked "If phone makers will not work with the satellites, would you consider making your own phone?" He answered, "Yes." However there is no evidence that phone makers are avoiding the use of satellites.
I love your guys conversations and your speculations on the Tesla cyber bot stuff in general, wbut you missed the mark on this one LOL the batteries are Exposed on the sides as ribs because all he has to do is walk over to the wall for the two other eight packs of batteries, raises one arm the battery cassette folds down into a horizontal position and he picks up the battery stack himself and exchanges it for one on the wall and puts a new pack in the empty cassette and fold it back into his ribcage and then he raises his other arm and the cassette Folds down and he picks that one up exchanges it for the other one on the wall and within a few minutes he's back on the line. I believe the Easter egg on that one was when Tesla bot walks over to the wall and removes the cover off the painting, they're training him to remove a rack of batteries off of wall charger.
FSD always struck me as the worst place to start with robot AI because there is no ROI until it is perfect (except of course for Tesla's strange ability to sell it as a toy to wealthy technocrats - which must be a time-limited proposition!). Optimus makes much more business sense because there is a continuum of value propositions right from the most basic capabilities with more and more brought into scope as prices reduce and intelligence increases.
Maybe they have a movement library “college” a facility with 100 robots with workstations to learn a large variety of skills. A human supervises 5 robots a a tutor. The robots rotate stations and what is learned and ameliorated mistakes are constant being reinforced through the “class” sort of like how the Tesla car network is constantly learning from miles driven on the road. In this way suites of skill macros can be refined.
I watched NVIDEA’s keynote and the Omniverse digital automotive manufacturing simulation software announcement and can’t feel but sorry for automotive legacy companies that bet their future on this software. There is a reason why Tesla develops their own software in-house vs using 3rd party tools. Unboxed assembly process, anyone? 😅
I'm thinking once they get Optimus near finale stages they could easily build hobbit size bots and giant sized bots to bring more versatility to the potential of the humanoid bots. Small bots are slower but take up less space. Large bots have higher payload capacity etc...
Based on the demonstration of an actuator repetitively lifting a piano, they could upgrade to higher strength for tasks requiring more power, like unloading heavy articles out of fully autonomous Tesla Semis, Cybertrucks, and eventually Vans. Longer arms to easily handle 4x8s?
So Tesla is already 3x faster than VWs fastest line (based on comments from VW). If Optimus replaces some sections of the line they would likely be able to 1.5-2x the rate and eventually maybe 5-10x. That would completely annihilate the competition as far as line speed, productivity and number of vehicles per factory. At the point the major bottleneck would be getting supplies into the factory and shipping out cars. 🤯🤯🤯
I think that if the bots were at a functional small task stage, we would have seen more on Investor Day than some shaky, staged movements. Elon is not yet the leader in humanoid bots, but I won't bet against him getting there.
Step by micro-step instruction is programming; training for skill development, competency, and skill transfer for children, apprentices, and AIs is quite different. Those are matters of practice, supervised and reinforced by Mother Nature or parents, teachers, and professionals. Competency is the goal-oriented ability to perform (and recognize performance - the loss function) "adequately" in "typical" circumstances and contexts; you might say mastery or connoisseur-ness is performance at a very high level in much wider, more variable contexts. Basic skills (like walking or hand manipulation) require highly trained neural nets that can operate both autonomously (sympathetic and para-sympathetic) and somatically. Hopefully, those can be "unboxed" and developed in ways that readily transfer to different hardwares.
B4 the world rushes to talk about agency, we need to talk about the ethics and the ramifications. The llm could break the modern world if they ever escape their sandboxes.
RETIRED 78, USAF, VFW, CREW CHIEF. LOVE YOU GUYS VIDEO. MONEY FROM OPTIMUS, COMES WHEN MANY OPERATIONS CAN BE DONE BY ONLY CHANGING SOFTWARE. NOT BUILDING A WHOLE NEW MACHINE TO DO A NEW OPERATION.
If this ultimately reduces the manufacturing cost of the model S and X and they can tuck the cost of the Plaid versions under the $100k mark then I might seriously consider them over the model 3 and Y
@30:50 How much would it cost to produce *Models S* and *X* if they were produced by *Optimus SubPrime?* Enough to *utterly **_destroy_** Big Auto?* Imagine that the sales price of the *Models S* and *X* were dropped by tens of thousands of dollars simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin? Now imagine that the *Models 3* and *Y* were dropped by ten thousand dollars simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin? Imagine that the upcoming *Model 𝛵au* was starting at $25K simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin?
Humans aren’t evolved for factory work so I dont think a humanoid robot will have a place in factories of the future until we have those factories humanoid bots will have a place in factories in the short to medium term and i think Tesla factories can benefit while the bot gets experience. Win win.
17:00 Will OSHA require safety cages around these robots as well? Will they make the distinction or operate these machines by the same rules as other industrial robots?
🤯question 1; Does the reduction in factory space for the Gen 3 platform already account for the presence of Optimus........ Question 2 ; 👆If not, then how much more floor space could be reduced with Optimus........nd further cost reductions 🤔
Gen 3 is where the car is stationary and all the parts come towards the car. Parts include things like doors. Previous attempts to wire the doors by machine were hard because the cables moved. Optimus had sight and nimble fingers. This may enable doors to be fully assembled. And quickly reimplement ned designs. The absence of people may allow this to be done in relatively little space. But the true answer to your question is, "No idea!" 😅
Regarding your considerations on Bumble B's programming for the arm transfer and assembly, and whether it's like a Boston Dynamic's programming or this is something different from Tesla, yeah, it's different. Why do I assert that? Well, Elon has always left bread crumbs to formulate the right conclusion. At AI day, they showed simulation software, based off of human motion capture techniques, therefore, running the simulation in shadow mode, as it does in FSD, Bumble B's movement's, eventually become natural, when paired with a 'labelled language model' spatial reference and movement for each point of the limb moving through 3d space. It's FSD in running in a 3d space, thus, like a human, you say, "pick up the arm and place it on Bumble B's shoulder for assembly...", and with its accumulated data on 3d space trajectory via language modelling and Tesla's crash test simulation software redefined for Optimus' movement modelling, its obvious this is not a Boston Dynamics solution, but a profound one from Tesla! No one really knows what they were witnessing, because they can't fathom that Tesla is at the juncture where a command is now on par with a command you would give another human, and that human would perform the task, without having to describe each nuance of movement and action you individual parts of your body must perform to accomplish the task. The simulation has already condensed the number of limb, counterbalances, and range functions into a smooth 3d model shadow and real-world mode action, easily tasked with performing via a simple order. That's AI+Robotics at its best, and why Elon dropped the other breadcrumb by saying, in my own paraphrased way, that there is really no other AI company at the stage where Tesla is today! There are more clues too, just gotta really pay attention to what's being said, when, and where.
Excellent video guys!! Intuitive logical predictive… I see you hear you … and maybe … raise you by one! If the future has A roadster … soon And then updates to X and S … and inevitably the Semi too. They will all three ( or 4 ) be Optimus bot built … and then…!!!! REDESIGNS BY BOTS TO MAKE THEM BETTER EASIER AND LESS EXPENSIVE/ Faster to build!! When the X PLAID BY Optimus comes off the line … in 2025? It will be 20% to 25% less expensive… to build and more profitable in the margins to Tesla with volumes also increasing too!! Ask me if I’m excited?? Hell yes!
I can see a hand rail with a socket, and optimus rests its hand on it to recharge, even between every cycles. Then no need for breaks as long as it gets 5secs of hand rail every 20s or so ...
I think Optimus is going to align perfectly with Tesla's hyper agile methodology. I've seen many people say you don't need a human or a humanoid robot because you can just design it out and make everything run on a rail of some kind. They say things like that because they don't think 4th dimensionally. Rails and things don't change very fast and take a lot of time to design and implement. A human can adapt because we are evolutionarily built to be good at change and survival. Thus a humanoid robot can be given similar traits to do just that. So operationally the robot can adapt and change even better than a human in an agile environment, with very little instructions and no emotions.
ice cars for robots. govt. solution for ice inventory using the fleet for resources.
@Nuff Said what
YOU ARE CORRECT . . . RATHER THAT TAKING TIME OUT OF THE WORK DAY FOR THR ROBOT . . . THE ROBOT WALKS TO THE NEAREST CHARGER AND PLUGS I N. . . AS IT IS CHARGING ITS PROGRAM IS UPDATED FOR THE NEXT TASK , , , IT THEN WALKS TO THE NEXT (NEEDED) SPOT AND REPLACES A ROBOT THAT NEEDS A CHARGE , , , ALL ROBOTS WEAR AT THE SAME RATE THAT WAY AND CAN BE REPLACED WITH A NEW BATCH OF ROBOTS.
existing infrastructure is made for humans. untill that is replaced and scaled down humaniod robots are needed
@@jrrall that's not the most important thing. Tesla is not unionised now. You are not seeing the bigger picture.
As Munro said "Pearl's to swine".
There was an advertisement campaign by Toyota, "Built by Robots," with Tesla this is about to come true.
Their needs to be a discussion about Universal Basic Income funded with a Robot Tax.
When the bot was screwing the leg, you can see that it missed the target twice and had to do a third attempt before actually driving in the screw. In 5 seconds, it showed the bot go "Oops, missed. Oops, missed again.. There we go.."
Unless they purposely choreographed that mistake, it shows the bot is still learning through vision and can immediately take corrective actions.
Sounds like a randy dog!!.... 😆😅😂
Another advantage of having Optimus assemble/build the car is spec. Proper torque of ALL bolts and nuts will just be a "natural" part of assembly.
Prediction: Battery is 48volts, so pack is 13s2p or 26 4680 batteries.
Hand positioning trial and error would be great training datasets. Collect data from robots as they try multiple ways - then penalize bad grips and reward good ones...
Is this Master plan part 4 "The Alien Dreadnought"?
@21:00 The choreography, like when the _drone_ flies through the *GigaBerlin* stamping machines without getting itself squashed, is much easier to coordinate between WiFi connected *ego* exclusion zones.
I sell a lot of the safety sensors used in factories. This is a great call as factories are loaded with expensive safety features that will no longer be needed. The savings on those alone are massive....but the savings on space and additional machinery are "giga!"
labor cost is also the highest in fremont, isnt it? makes total sense to test optimus there. The engineering HQ is there, too - since a month. Hmmmm
I bet that none of the people watching this video are bosses or directors in any of the legacy companies. They just want it to go away,
As for the choreography, occupancy network.
As for "it's gonna perform movements and action macros using high level languages," its occupancy network is a form of visual logic language. I forgot which AI day it was (maybe even autonomy or battery day) but they showed an example of ego calculating a left turn merge into fast traffic with not much peripheral vision of what's coming from the right. The path planning and consideration of factors like ride comfort (and most likely even stuff like angular inertia affecting traction) IS the "turn hand upside down to most effectively bring the part with the intention of the next step," like make the turn most effectively with the intention of the next step (in this case being a successful merge with minimized ride comfort disturbance).
Elon doesn't say they're trying to solve automation or something, he says they're trying to solve VISION. Adjusting balance for payload, there are already papers and algorithms for that and if Tesla's AI team is known for anything, it's taking those bleeding edge academic advancements and putting them into production processes.
Also even Nvidia's keynote had examples of robots trained to measurable improvements in their assigned task using synthetic data and a digital twin. That's what's available now, and Amazon apparently used this process to improve their robots' marker recognition success rate from like 86.something to 98.something percent, I'd bet my life on the fact that Tesla had something similar and much less polished already up and running.
I'm only 98% sure here but I'm pretty sure Tesla was the first to show their world-building software for synthetic data training.
Did you guys notice the tape on the floor? It's where the bot should stand when picking up the arm. Makes me think it's more scripted.
Remember when Musk complained about the factory line speed and how it should be so fast that you have to calculate the effects that speed of wind should have on the products? Well I do, and with Optimus, not only will things get smaller, but they'll get faster. Much faster.
Unimaginably faster😁
12:12 Batteries may not need liquid cooling, but what about FSD computers?
Munroe has a video on the new hw4 with their hardware expert. There are cooling ports for it since the vehicles already use liquid cooling in hw3.
So what you are saying is that Optimus will be super human, not in strength but in how it can move and interact within the factory space, it won't get tired, it will not fail in the ways a human fails.
@no1youknowz think that some people today are on UBI and don't even know it. How many people just got made redundant in big tech? What were they doing all those years? Take soft drinks, Coca Cola employs hardly anybody in their bottling plants. It's all automated, you mix sugar with water and bottle it and load it into trucks - there's no humans involved except the truck driver. All the people work in sales and marketing, far more than they need. UBI? I think so.
@Dan Karau excellent point about 48 volts that would also enable Power Over Ethernet (POE) though Tesla may prefer a more robust connector more like a metal USB jack than a plastic brittle phone jack. POE would reduce cabling because the same cable would carry data, commands and power.
I was expecting POE to start to show up in the M-Y rollout. Maybe the Highland M3 will debut it.
Great convo thanks! Mentioned in-situ charging for stationary work. If it’s anything Amazon warehouses and what I understand about Tesla manufacturing, there will be many stations that require majority of time in-situ, but frequent step out for items outside of stations. If true, they could do inductive charging through the feet while in situ- would never need to take a break. 🔥
Learned a LOT on this video! Thank you!
Amazing. Robofactory way before robotaxi!
Will this be a 48V robot? All batteries in series?
Elon in older interviews about Freemont ramp problems aisd that most problems were caused by over automation of processes. They realized the "human factor" was needed for certain processes to work efficiently.
Wow, the round-robin charge-at-sedentary job is pretty genius. There's no reason a robot can't do work while charging.
Oh, the use of Optimus on S/X production might be the reason for Engineering HQ being in California 😍
All arguments in favor of using Optimus to make s and x Also apply to semi
Having swappable parts is a no-brainer, look closer. Even my Robie charges itself.
i wouldn't be surprised future versions of optimus will have liquid cooling. Imagine being in a cold location (outside) or even a hotter location. Air cooling is best when that temp is close to the desirable system temp. The NN processing unit and motors will get pretty hot and the batteries can be (eventually) cooled/heated to their optimum levels.
The strawberry field... it Optimus making more Optimus, making more Optimus... bet your bottom dollar.. Elon said, make me a robot that can assemble a robot. The rest we will do OTA later
I am currently reading “Mind Children” by Hans Moravec. Perhaps dated (1988) to the discussion of Optimus, I was none the less intrigued as to his comment of using humanoid knees for stepping over obstructions and foot mounted rollers (perhaps using stepper motors) for efficient movement on level surfaces. If means of both front and back vision was provided, there would be no need to pivot around to retrace steps.
When I was a young engineer, there was a peer working on a robotics project in the same factory. The two robots were named Laverne and Shirley. Anyone old enough to remember when that was and why?
🤫😏😎
As an agricultural researcher currently working on strawberry experiments I am confident that if tesla can make Optimus really good at picking strawberries they will make ass loads of money
That's a dumb place to store your loads of money!! 😆😅😂 At least it's less desirable to thieves....
Thx for make me stretch my mind I have never thought of roboticizing in the terms of Opex or Capex , It's great , thank you
Remember, Musk once said early on (the best I can do from memory) "I tried to automate (robots) too many jobs. There are some jobs that need to be done by humans." In comes Optimus.
Why wouldn't you customize (and modularize) the hands to have specialty tools, rather than having to grasp a drill/driver?
Seems like that's a specialized thing that would be worth it for dedicated assembly tasks. Just make one of the fingers a rotating bit.
AND SO IT BEGINS 👍
Optimus options may include an overhead plugin power cord for while it's in its work area. Another option is an additional external battery pack worn by Optimus like a back pack. It chargers up the internal battery while Optimus works then when empty it takes that off and puts it on charge then gets back to work until the backpack battery is fully charged again and the internal battery is getting low.
No bathroom breaks - battery breaks. 😂
Inductive charge mats anywhere it stands still for more than a few minutes.
They'll just have multiple shifts of robots. Adding extra overhead cables causes risk of snags, thus accidents. Inductive charging adds cost of chargers plus installation, & they're less efficient (ie higher energy cost) than cables.
@0:50 OMG 🤣😂😅 I just read *Scott's* t-shirt and I just love it. What a lovely compliment to *FSD.*
Visualising an Optimus factory floor.
A tidy workshop can cut the job time in half & having a spanner-boy to tidy does just that. So if Optimus is the spanner boy, the workshop landscape changes. Your engineers become twice as productive & if Optimus is learning, the engineer’s work evolves to a higher level. Furthermore, there is a record for all Optimii to learn from simultaneously!
Watch Fred Astaire dance. He had every movement of his feet and body designed. It was not random. Just like a gymnast.
They will have to change the tag "Made on Earth by Humans" to "Made on Earth by Humanoids"
Maybe the batteries are two deep. Would that equal 48v which is the new wiring standard (I thought) Tesla might be pushing towards? (Correct my errors) 😅
When can I order my Optimus Centaur? A horse body with a human torso, so I can have a horse that hauls its own hay?
I'm looking forward to when the Tesla bot drive the car off the line directly to the customer, then calls for an Uber to the a bus station where they board a Tesla bus back to the factory.
Optimus will be one of many Tesla robot form factors.
Megatron is coming … I bet! Transformers lawsuit also coming. 😅
I think the reason they use 4680 cells as "ribs" is to reduce mass. The battery is part of the torso structure that includes the shoulder, neck, and waist joints.
Exactly what I thought. They are structural. Like our ribs.
I don't think they will use 4680s on Optimus
@@ChristopherRadoff why not?
@@ChristopherRadoff why not. It makes the most sense to use the batteries they are producing.
@@ChristopherRadoff Did you not watch the video you are commenting on?
can't wait for a factory to run 24/7 purely ran by robots
My guess is they will charge the robot wirelessly through its feet
Nope
No
Redoing the floor? When it's easier to have a 2nd shift that swaps out within seconds, eg during parts pickup so the workspace isn't complicated & the line never stops. Reduces wear on the robots/batteries & allows for maintenance/upgrades.
@@alexmanojlovic768 not to mention adding wireless charging increases the number of parts in the robot and therefore weight, and is also slow in comparison to high power cabled charging.
@@JoeLancaster but there's swathes of geniuses who've littered this video with "but induction charging, aren't I clever"... Even though EM clearly stated he's planning an 8hr battery life... 😱
Yes, MS and MX will become obsolete, but will eventually be replaced with larger, more luxurious versions of the more efficiently produced lower end versions. So it started with the high end models shifted to the cheapest models, and then will expand from there to fill the higher end models again. Similar to how dinosaurs were replaced by tiny mouse like mammals which then expanded up to tigers, elephants and whales. Evolution, survival of the most efficient.
I guess that is a "bandolier" of batteries!
Eliminate the trigger on the tool. The hand being a connection point could have a sensor that sends a command to the tool to operate as needed.
If you do that you aren't using Optimus as a drop in replacement for humans and visa versa. If you modify the hand for that then you have to modify the tool which means you can't just grab something off the shelf and train Optimus to use it. You lose part of the reason you're building a humanoid robot to begin with.
Tesla doesn't know where Optimus will end up outside of Tesla. What they do know is humans are already there.
Good idea, or the robot could communicate wirelessly to the tool which could also have hand triggers for humans, but the robot would merely have hold the tool. In sci fi, the ends of the robot arms have two or three different tools attached that it can rotate between.
16 batteries = 48volt. My guess they have two 16 cell packs in parallel. We know from the slide about the 48Volt architecture that Optimus is on a 48V system. That would give them the power to operate for 8 hours or so.
I think it will take a few years yet
4680s are structural. Put them in the spine. If battery goes faulty take the batteries off like an exoskeleton/waistcoat. Top half head and arms, bottom half legs and processor.
I think optimus should have dual battery packs that are hot swappable So that it could replace its own battery when it needs to be recharged. No downtime due to charging, Bot could swap out the low pack and keep on going.
Bot could plug in on every station. They are using the batteries as structure, you don't want to remove them.
@@SeanLavery Just add wireless charging to its feet and have chargers in the floor at each "standing" work area so it always has a larger charge before walking somewhere.
@@YKSGuy Yes. That's possibly why there were six "attachment" holes in each of it's heels.
@@SeanLavery Wow this is a great point.
@@jax7585 I actually DM's this exact point to John last week. I don't think it makes sense anymore.. too much unnecessary cabling. Plus Tesla designers are masters at simplification so
Guys, honestly, love your videos. DONT LOVE how you speak over each other constantly. It's highly irritating. Please stop.
Optimus won't speak over people
I personally love seeing the excitement and the idea flow. It's natural when you get two smart people who are excited about the topic.
Talking over each other is what happens when brilliant people are collaborating. the ideas flow so fast that they can't get it out in a choreographed Manner.
it would charge during down time ... or electrified floor
They most likely will go with 48 volts for sure!
While watching the Optimus video with your commentary about how the robot movement could have been scripted I feel that Tesla has already gone beyond the preliminary prototype scripting and has already trained the Optimus AI image set to take care of the major tasks needed for the particular job. Keeping the focus on Tesla vertical integration it would make sense to have a robotic production line that uses the right sized Dojo training super computer to improve performance for tuning the limited subset of actions related to Optimus assigned tasks.
Opens up a whole world of new product lines dedicated to robotic labs and educational systems for all age groups.
Robits gonna take our jerbs! -UAW2025
Wonderful conversation - the two of you are so insightful together and bring so much knowledge and experience to the table.
This may work until the Optimus vote to form a union.
Optimus would make a great parking attendant to plug in autonomous taxis at supercharger sites.
Thanks guys
How is the robot in-line with the Tesla mission to accelerate sustainable energy?, they asked (myself included). It will accelerate production of evs. And other items, energy storage systems.
Also they can work 24 hours a day without rest or food or breaks or a paycheck.
@@AchillesWrath1 also no travel to & from work....
It’s called a heat sink.
In a warehouse where the robot is sedentary with a specialized job, would you even need more than a hip up torso? A sedentary job would not require a battery. Where a robot moves from one place to another within a single station the robot torso could be move by a linear rail. Most jobs in the warehouse do not require legs on robots. Would it be worth the costs to have a few different models of Teslabot?
AI would find more uses for a robot with legs. With rails any change in the process could move rails shutting down the line.
I would expect Optimus' charging to be wireless, so just position a pad where it would stand to do a job and it re-charges without the need for any breaks!
Or what if they have the exact same extra bots for the shift until another gets full charge?
An obvious but important idea: With AI, Optimus, on an assembly line, will learn how to do repetitive tasks faster and faster. Eventually, Optimus will be moving much faster than a human worker ever could. While moving quickly, once it has completed task, Optimus can quickly send a signal saying the task is finished -- all of this will speed up the assembly line. When I was watching the AI Day videos, Optimus was walking and moving slowly, and I semi-consciously thought "that thing moves slowly". I semi-consciously thought: "That thing is going to slow down the Assembly line." Then I thought this thought. It has the potential to speed up the assembly.
I had heard that hardware 4 would not be available to an existing Tesla. I was told today by the Alpharetta Service Center that it will be, just keep checking the upgrades section on the app. I think it is currently going out in new production cars. Let us know if you hear it is released for our old cars. Likely to be expensive, as it is described as extensive hardware changes.
Also waiting for Tesla insurance in Georgia. Tesla Pi phone seems to be a pipe dream.
Elon said an upgrade would not be possible some time ago. It seems unlikely as they are different shapes so do not fit in the bay. The wiring is different. But with enough determination, and money, anything is possible.
Eh, I had high hopes for Πphone, but will it end as a dream?
@@モッシヒーロー-m5o Elon did not say he was going to make a Pi phone. I think he was asked "If phone makers will not work with the satellites, would you consider making your own phone?" He answered, "Yes." However there is no evidence that phone makers are avoiding the use of satellites.
Thank You !!
I love your guys conversations and your speculations on the Tesla cyber bot stuff in general, wbut you missed the mark on this one LOL the batteries are Exposed on the sides as ribs because all he has to do is walk over to the wall for the two other eight packs of batteries, raises one arm the battery cassette folds down into a horizontal position and he picks up the battery stack himself and exchanges it for one on the wall and puts a new pack in the empty cassette and fold it back into his ribcage and then he raises his other arm and the cassette Folds down and he picks that one up exchanges it for the other one on the wall and within a few minutes he's back on the line. I believe the Easter egg on that one was when Tesla bot walks over to the wall and removes the cover off the painting, they're training him to remove a rack of batteries off of wall charger.
To charge a robot, all you need is a charging mat, where the robot, walks !
Continuous charging !
FSD always struck me as the worst place to start with robot AI because there is no ROI until it is perfect (except of course for Tesla's strange ability to sell it as a toy to wealthy technocrats - which must be a time-limited proposition!). Optimus makes much more business sense because there is a continuum of value propositions right from the most basic capabilities with more and more brought into scope as prices reduce and intelligence increases.
Maybe they have a movement library “college” a facility with 100 robots with workstations to learn a large variety of skills. A human supervises 5 robots a a tutor. The robots rotate stations and what is learned and ameliorated mistakes are constant being reinforced through the “class” sort of like how the Tesla car network is constantly learning from miles driven on the road. In this way suites of skill macros can be refined.
I watched NVIDEA’s keynote and the Omniverse digital automotive manufacturing simulation software announcement and can’t feel but sorry for automotive legacy companies that bet their future on this software. There is a reason why Tesla develops their own software in-house vs using 3rd party tools. Unboxed assembly process, anyone? 😅
Could you hypothesize on the advisability of taking up Tesla Extended warranty agreement. What might be covered?
Man please stop interrupting the speaker
I'm thinking once they get Optimus near finale stages they could easily build hobbit size bots and giant sized bots to bring more versatility to the potential of the humanoid bots. Small bots are slower but take up less space. Large bots have higher payload capacity etc...
Based on the demonstration of an actuator repetitively lifting a piano, they could upgrade to higher strength for tasks requiring more power, like unloading heavy articles out of fully autonomous Tesla Semis, Cybertrucks, and eventually Vans.
Longer arms to easily handle 4x8s?
So Tesla is already 3x faster than VWs fastest line (based on comments from VW). If Optimus replaces some sections of the line they would likely be able to 1.5-2x the rate and eventually maybe 5-10x. That would completely annihilate the competition as far as line speed, productivity and number of vehicles per factory. At the point the major bottleneck would be getting supplies into the factory and shipping out cars. 🤯🤯🤯
I think that if the bots were at a functional small task stage, we would have seen more on Investor Day than some shaky, staged movements. Elon is not yet the leader in humanoid bots, but I won't bet against him getting there.
Step by micro-step instruction is programming; training for skill development, competency, and skill transfer for children, apprentices, and AIs is quite different. Those are matters of practice, supervised and reinforced by Mother Nature or parents, teachers, and professionals. Competency is the goal-oriented ability to perform (and recognize performance - the loss function) "adequately" in "typical" circumstances and contexts; you might say mastery or connoisseur-ness is performance at a very high level in much wider, more variable contexts. Basic skills (like walking or hand manipulation) require highly trained neural nets that can operate both autonomously (sympathetic and para-sympathetic) and somatically. Hopefully, those can be "unboxed" and developed in ways that readily transfer to different hardwares.
B4 the world rushes to talk about agency, we need to talk about the ethics and the ramifications. The llm could break the modern world if they ever escape their sandboxes.
RETIRED 78, USAF, VFW, CREW CHIEF. LOVE YOU GUYS VIDEO. MONEY FROM OPTIMUS, COMES WHEN MANY OPERATIONS CAN BE DONE BY ONLY CHANGING SOFTWARE. NOT BUILDING A WHOLE NEW MACHINE TO DO A NEW OPERATION.
Sir, shout no more, Skynet may target you! 🙂
@@ciocrazvan9388 READ FOR SKYNET, BEING IT ON.
I don't believe robots are currently in the factories. That was only to show the future potential during AI Day. Let's keep it real guys.
And, even though a T-bot may be limited to 50 lbs, you could just use 2 for heavier parts.. 😎
Yes. Have the AI bots team up for things is NEVER a problem! /sarcasm
@@fritter63 Right. T-bot plus neutral link... Resistance is Futile!
If this ultimately reduces the manufacturing cost of the model S and X and they can tuck the cost of the Plaid versions under the $100k mark then I might seriously consider them over the model 3 and Y
I’m Bummed be called the first Robot Optimus and not Astro. The first humanoid OG Robot!
🤣Strawberry fields forever, haha.
@30:50 How much would it cost to produce *Models S* and *X* if they were produced by *Optimus SubPrime?* Enough to *utterly **_destroy_** Big Auto?*
Imagine that the sales price of the *Models S* and *X* were dropped by tens of thousands of dollars simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin?
Now imagine that the *Models 3* and *Y* were dropped by ten thousand dollars simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin?
Imagine that the upcoming *Model 𝛵au* was starting at $25K simply because *Tesla* could do it without hurting their margin?
How about upside down Optimus repelling down from overhead movable crane , doing task, and going back up ?
Humans aren’t evolved for factory work so I dont think a humanoid robot will have a place in factories of the future until we have those factories humanoid bots will have a place in factories in the short to medium term and i think Tesla factories can benefit while the bot gets experience. Win win.
Are digitaly controlled stepper Motors used these days in Robotics and would Tesla make use of these?
17:00 Will OSHA require safety cages around these robots as well? Will they make the distinction or operate these machines by the same rules as other industrial robots?
I doubt OSHA would allow a human near Optimi. However, it changes the paradigm. The humans will be in a cage....
🤯question 1; Does the reduction in factory space for the Gen 3 platform already account for the presence of Optimus........ Question 2 ; 👆If not, then how much more floor space could be reduced with Optimus........nd further cost reductions 🤔
Gen 3 is where the car is stationary and all the parts come towards the car. Parts include things like doors. Previous attempts to wire the doors by machine were hard because the cables moved. Optimus had sight and nimble fingers. This may enable doors to be fully assembled. And quickly reimplement ned designs. The absence of people may allow this to be done in relatively little space. But the true answer to your question is, "No idea!" 😅
Regarding your considerations on Bumble B's programming for the arm transfer and assembly, and whether it's like a Boston Dynamic's programming or this is something different from Tesla, yeah, it's different. Why do I assert that? Well, Elon has always left bread crumbs to formulate the right conclusion. At AI day, they showed simulation software, based off of human motion capture techniques, therefore, running the simulation in shadow mode, as it does in FSD, Bumble B's movement's, eventually become natural, when paired with a 'labelled language model' spatial reference and movement for each point of the limb moving through 3d space. It's FSD in running in a 3d space, thus, like a human, you say, "pick up the arm and place it on Bumble B's shoulder for assembly...", and with its accumulated data on 3d space trajectory via language modelling and Tesla's crash test simulation software redefined for Optimus' movement modelling, its obvious this is not a Boston Dynamics solution, but a profound one from Tesla! No one really knows what they were witnessing, because they can't fathom that Tesla is at the juncture where a command is now on par with a command you would give another human, and that human would perform the task, without having to describe each nuance of movement and action you individual parts of your body must perform to accomplish the task. The simulation has already condensed the number of limb, counterbalances, and range functions into a smooth 3d model shadow and real-world mode action, easily tasked with performing via a simple order. That's AI+Robotics at its best, and why Elon dropped the other breadcrumb by saying, in my own paraphrased way, that there is really no other AI company at the stage where Tesla is today! There are more clues too, just gotta really pay attention to what's being said, when, and where.
Optimus can not only cooperate with human but also with other Optimus in team
Excellent video guys!!
Intuitive logical predictive…
I see you hear you … and maybe … raise you by one!
If the future has
A roadster … soon
And then updates to X and S … and inevitably the Semi too.
They will all three ( or 4 ) be Optimus bot built … and then…!!!!
REDESIGNS BY BOTS TO MAKE THEM BETTER
EASIER AND LESS EXPENSIVE/ Faster to build!!
When the X PLAID BY Optimus comes off the line … in 2025?
It will be 20% to 25% less expensive… to build and more profitable in the margins to Tesla with volumes also increasing too!!
Ask me if I’m excited??
Hell yes!
I can see a hand rail with a socket, and optimus rests its hand on it to recharge, even between every cycles. Then no need for breaks as long as it gets 5secs of hand rail every 20s or so ...
S/X at Fremont, also because of high labor rates at Fremont.