Why Trading the Martingale Strategy is a TERRIBLE Idea
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 ม.ค. 2017
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We discuss the Martingale money management strategy and explain why it's one of the most stupid money management strategies.
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A lot of people are responding in defence of the Martingale strategy. This video contains my response and explains that situation: th-cam.com/video/TBU-GfOPnmQ/w-d-xo.html
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This is glorious, I been tryin to find out about "dragon quest 11 madame labouche's life lesson" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Ever heard of - Aonyanaler Bewildering Asset - (do a search on google ) ? It is an awesome one of a kind product for discovering how to making money with a proven roulette system without the normal expense. Ive heard some unbelievable things about it and my brother in law got great results with it.
I think the martingale is a really good strategy if you want to give back to the world.
Smart!
Or if you have loads and loads of money
Hahahaha
I'm going to have to vote this one down Nick...I have infinite money and I'm trying to double it by trading ;-)
haha... I think my calculator just broke.
Yes, if you have atleast 10000$ you can do martingale. start with 10$ trade. if lost 25, 60, 140, 300... thats all. if you are a real trader you should win the 300$ trade. If not stop trading for the day. Do not continue martingale upto 7th level. Only 4 level losses, then 5th trade win. If not stopvtrading for the day.
@@nila781116 smart ass 😂
@@nila781116 start with 1.5% risk
*Whether looking at entry price movements within
a day or over a number of days on risk managing, currencies tend to have trading ranges that are wide enough to produce attractive trading opportunities at minimum risk with IQD Momentum strategy. learning prefect strategy from Lukasz Wilhelm could teach you Volatility, is necessary for a trader to make money in any market* .
Your video is great. But Martingale Strategy is a powerful and proven strategy for winners, who are having talents and knowledge in trading. Martingale is not for stupid gamblers. Martingale is for intelligent traders who are having 70% win rate. Who still wants to follow Martingale even after the 5th trade loss. Then he is not a trader. He is a looser. Martingale should be used upto 4th level to recover the losses. Even 5th trade is lossed, there is a mistake in your trade decision. Trend MUST be wrong. Those who follow the trend never loose 5 consecutive trades. Martingale is to be used to recover 1st,2nd or 3rd level loses. Above 4 or 5 losses means STOP trading. Learn and trade with martingale, then you will never loss.
Martingale works if you know where to kick in. Also, you don't have to double the amount and as others said, don't go over the 4th level. I am using the strategy and sometime double my account and withdraw the money. It could be poison if used incorrectly.
I agree with you 100%, It works the same for me as you do and yes I double, triple, and more my accounts all the time with this you just need to have the right margin to do it.
nice one !!
however i do double down on occasions .. as example my max risk is at 2% ..
first trade is 0.5% risk .. and the next one is then 1% risk .. if both fail i'm within the risk window
if it works out i'm up at least +0.5% .. so for me it's more a "breaking even a trade" thing .. but keeping the max risk in a clear sight ist most important.
you have a point , good ..thanks however no individual should trade only base on the martingle, adding some technical analysis and proven indicator strategies make you better . anyways so do you have any strategy for us
Great video, but how do you differ martingale and trade like micaelburry trade " is it kind of same he averaging down even when cdo going up agaisnt him?...... I mean when you know you are right and increase risk exposure is it martingale? Evem he only pays premium buying swaps....
You are too good and honest.. really appreciate your work and ethics! You have everything one should look in a mentor.. eager to learn more..
Thanks it's really helpful I was beginning to use it but was skeptical. I won't use it
which strategy do you use??
Well said mate!
I've doubled my capital using this Martingale strategy only to loose all of it when the market went against me. As you've said, I had to learn the hard way!
Yesterday i wondered how good this strategy is. Today you published this video...Awesome!
Glad you got to see the video before you committed to the strategy!
you are the best! I listen to you and Al Brooks been practice trading now for over a year still trying to create a skill treating it like a college education really glad I went this route...My first real trade I made money and a few others but I was still unhappy with my results the only trade I lost I would have made money if I simply didn't react being I was managing every little move...I'm learning to be patient wait for it to hold or form a bubble then wait for the test while putting on a single contract to test the water if it proves my theory to be accurate then I hit it again still in my mind risking the same amount of capital I previously decided on : ) Not there yet but I'm on my way and your vids have been very inspiring So THANK YOU for doing all of this for us
Thank you very much :)
i think that if we change the risk reward ratio from 1:1 to 1.5:1 or more we may have a good result
Martingale can work, if manage professionally.
Bullshit
Lol.. How
that s True.. micro account 10 k €... 2 graphics one Only buy the other Only sell....start lowest size 0.10.... close tp 5 Pip.. not doubling increase size by 1.2/1.3 factor....no trailing stop...tp adjusted by bot....
no one on TH-cam shows Real trading martingale.... they Only talk about General casinò martingale... it's not the same thing
I first heard about this strategy from this one dude who liked to brag about how good he was at poker. Never saw someone lose so much money in one sitting.
Wait how does the probability rise over the course of a year? It's an individual event like tossing a coin- just because you got a heads on the first flip doesn't mean your odds of getting a tails increase. Right??
Matthew Wynne-Jones Right
If you trade a prop account, martingale is a valid strategy. The goal is to get a payout, not necessarily to be 100% profitable all the time. If your max daily risk is 5%, you can martingale and scalp and easily make 5% without hitting your 5% limit, especially on currency pairs that don't trend (eurchf), etc.
Martigale works in trading, but not with a ratio 1/1..... I use a ratio 10 (stoploss) /30 (take profit)....Or 1/3 if you like....Which makes a huge difference, and increase the number of attemps.
Sébastien Alquier can u plz elaborate it .. . Didnt got it
Harpreet Bains He's probably broke now.
that’s not martingale that’s just good trading
Martingale strategy is actually effective if you follow the strategy up to 4 trades and on the same trade. The way you described the strategy was totally different from the way I learnt it, I was told never to do more then 4 trades when using the martingale strategy and that all of the trades should be on the same currency/commodity. But yeah the Martingale strategy you described is more well known amongst gamblers in casino's and I totally agree with you in saying that strategy is terrible for trading.
Kindly pm, I think this is something I did(although I just use .01, .02, .03, .04
how do you feel about the winning martingale strategy? eg starting balance of £100 bet 10% of it £10 if it wins you get £18.60 at 86% profit the next bet will be £18.60 if that wins you get £34.59 and so on when you reach £200 balance start again with 10% £20
I'm hoping to try it out in demo account tomorrow.
nice videos I look forward to hearing from you
Sounds like you're referring to binary options, so first of all I have to say that we don't recommend using those at all. If you search this channel you will find 2 videos explaining our views on them.
As for the money management plan, I still would avoid doing that. Firstly because risking 10% is way too high in any situation. You should only be risking 1-2% per trade. Secondly, you're linking your money management to your winning streak, rather than to the actual riskiness of the trade. This is a big no-no. Your money management should be considered as a risk measure and should increase or decrease based on whether a situation is high or low risk. This means you're balancing your exposure to risky events appropriately (even if a bit simplistically).
thanks! good vid
Thank you brother, pls be more specific about how much % of the capital to risk on a trade.. slow and steady... I believe pays more than fast and burn....
3.33% ;)
Hi sir 500 usd. How this lot saej
Martingle is applicable in short trends only, it should be applied in 1 minutes charts with 1 hour charts for monitoring, if the martingle is not closed in the 1 hour candles for trend long enough that if not recovered immediately the martingle would go more floating losses close the positions and reopen positions again after 6 hours
Hello Nicholas, I have an important question. You see... I am making now lots of money per day in the demo account, with an initial capital of 3k, but its not like with any fundamental or technical analysis really, its just like intuition and looking the forms of the candles and like guessing if it will go down or up the price and placing just 1 pip of TP and 3 lots of volume so if I win the trade I win like 25 to 30 pounds each trade, and its really really working, my question is... if I continue trading like this like 3 months and im continue beign profitable, did I found an ability of trading or its just luck or what? Cause then I wana go to real money but dont wanna loose all the $.
Thanks
Francis Figer Hey Francis, for the first like month and a half of trading, and learning how to trade, I was pretty much trading the exact same way, learning the moves and behavior of the market and how the platform works all that lovely stuff, making big sums of cash on a 10k demo account. The thing about intuition is that it can, and will lead you to make pretty nice choices, in the market, but just the same it'll lead you to mentally fight the market, believing in things when really there is nothing to support them. Leading to losses way to large to sustain. I remember my biggest trade, I made $6,800 on Gold, in 15 minutes (before I knew more about position sizing I must note) and i closed out really well. But I lost everything on a couple loosing streaks later that week, that I simply held onto way to long. My advice to you, is to continue practicing, and NEVER GET LAZY everyone of us will go through the stages of finding that holy grail, or thinking we can just wing it. But trust me, it'll only lead you to a lot of really stupid frustrating dead ends, and lost moral. Theres never one answer, and you'll have to build yourself up over time, to truly understand the market, but I encourage you to keep pushing. Do what you are doing and if it fails to prove itself, learn something. Learn something new every day, and just keep testing new things. It's a whole new language and it's got a lot of funny ways to put it together. I wish you luck out there, and I really recommend you watch like every single one of Nics videos cause he is amazing if you haven't already done that
What Lucus said. And when you start to trade with real money, it's a completely different story. Greed and fear come into play, and both of them will cast doubt on your every action in the market. Don't underestimate learning. While intuition is good, I think it should be based on your experience rather than on your feelings. Discipline yourself by developing and strictly following your trading system and start a trading journal. It may take you a month, it may take you a couple of years, but in the end you'll become a sustainable trader with professional intuition. I learned it all the hard way.
Hi Lucus, thank you so much for taking the time to answer so completely. Great words, I'll listen to you.
Геннадий Харитонов Excellent, thank you for the advice. It is true, It's just like that. Great answer.
Cheers
Bro intuition cannot be replicated consistently and when things go to shit you will not have a clue why. take the whole year to study trading and slowly develop a consistent strategy (Back tested and foward tested) and after that take 3 months trading live but with really small positions and compare testing results with actual. If then you see trading has become boring and mechanical and you make a consistent 3-10% Roi a month congratulations you have become a professional forex trader. There is NO shortcut to succes.
am not using the martingale strategy per say, i like the fact that it helps me manage my funds in trading what amount to trade per time, thats why i like it, i use my own build strategy which i learnt from several strategy with martingale strategy as a weighing scale . and boy am making consistent profit
Hi Nicholas, quick question, Ive recently just started trading on a real account. How long did it take your fears/ nerves to go away after you started trading?? e.g. the nerves of when a trade is running or before you put the trade on etc. Great channel thanks!
Honest answer: they never truly go away, your tolerance just increases as you get used to certain capital levels. When I first started trading I was burning through accounts worth a few thousand each. Since I had lost those amounts, I got used to dealing with those amounts of money, so I was already comfortable when I started trading sensibly.
However, as my capital increased to where I was trading with what I saw as 'life changing' amounts, I had to learn to deal with the nerves again. This time it was more intense. But again, you get used to it over time.
Then when I started trading other people's money... same thing!
So I would say it will take a few months to get fully comfortable, but as you reach certain amounts of money, it will come back. It's easy for people to say "don't focus on the capital, just think about your plan and the percentages etc." but we're only human! You just have to learn some methods to calm yourself down and control your mind a bit better (for me it's meditation and spending a lot of time each day in the gym!)
Thanks for the reply and advice, much appreciated. Ill definitely have to start hitting the gym for 3 hours a day compared to my 1hour ;)
Why not make it 12?
...Just kidding! For me it's less about the actual time spent there and more about how I approach it and the time of day I do it. It helps me clear my mind and therefore feel more neutral when I'm back in the markets. One of a few things I do to maintain that mental balance and focus. But what works for me might not work for you... it's all trial and error!
Never ADD to a Losing Position
That quote I MUST remember! °thumbs up°
A blind martingale will fail yes. It depends on the levels you try to double down each time.
1 hedge your trades. Get a long term put option for when the market turns against you.
2 look at the historical drops. There will be a range. Then define the percentage of doubling down when it's down in the range.
This has worked for me. Cost me a ton of money to get it right
I like this better than blindly buying 10k worth of stock.
Thank u 4 ur advice
i use it for my bots with a bit more math involved, as just a piece of the puzzle. it's works on a bull market, for very short term. I would never use it for someone else's money though.
keywords# Probability and consistency/Directions/ trends/synchronization/confluence and confirmation.. if you all got these,then you can use martingale..:-)
I think Duomo is bigger and bigger day by day :) Congratulations!
Eventually, Everyone can distinguish what is the real thing :)
Thanks so much :)
100k account and micro lot sizes may work but now you need infinite time to wait for profit.
At the video time of 1:25 minutes, this is akin to "doubling down" as regards to buying more bad stocks at a cheaper price in order to lower the average price. This is not a good idea with one stock.
well I gotta point out something here-.yes it is very very likely to lose 7 or even 11 times in a row but at casinos where they are manipulated,otherwise it is very improbable that number when losing.
U r really doing a Great work. The knowledge You are providing have proved to be very helpful 🤩.
In Trading my personal behaviour is more like PAUL TUDOR JONES therefore , I request you to help me to get the knowledge of PAUL TUDOR JONES , Risk:Reward ratio .
Looking for your reply
don't institutions with enough money to move the market use this strategy? average down buying more if they can on lower prices, when accumulating?
Exactly my thought. Market needs to retrace and when it does you're in profit if you're building your position. It can't go 100% without retracing. Key I think is accept that you're R:R for that specific trade is gonna suck. but still profits.
I use revers martin strategy, everytime i loose, i half down my risk. Yeah i have to win twice to recover the lose but i better protect my account than recovering as fast as possible. And at the same time it thought me
Patience, consistency and avoiding revenge trade.
Let me give u example
Let's say i trade risking 10.
I trade till i have 60 in my account in one or multiple trades.
Then i devide 60 by 3 and my next risk is 20.
So i trade with 20 risk till my account is in profit of 90.
Then my next risk is 30....and let's say i lost....so my account is back to 60 in profit.
Then my next trade will have 20$ at risk. Not 30. Because 60 decided to 3 is 20.
If i lose again....i will have 40$ in my account so my next trade risk is 40 ÷ 3. And so on.
I do the exact opposite of Martingale. If i take too big of a loss, I downsize my position sizes. I take it as a sign that I need to tweak some things and get some more practice to adjust to the market climate and I size back up as I start succeeding.
3 years ago 24option made me loose 17000 euro this way ;) !!!!!
How you recover it?
can someone tell me the best strategy to use coz Martingale Strategy have costed me alot. please i need help
Sorry to hear that Samuel. You shouldn't risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade. It's not only us that recommends that, it's pretty common amongst most professional traders.
If you are loosing 5-6 consecutive trades you are trading in the wrong trend direction. Stop trading to make up your mind. Trading psychology is very important. Start trading after 1 hour. Forget all previouse event and do fresh trading. Analyse the market and trend direction. Follow the trend and place trades.
Yes you are right I blew to account with it very stupid never back to it again
i trade in iran stock market ,it works here usually
A few days ago I found out about binary options and most reviews were pretty good so I started to use a practise account before I got into it with real money. After a few days I realised that those brokers were scams as they pretend to give bonuses sometimes up to 100% of what you put in but if you click on the bonuses they make it so you won't be able to withdraw your money until you do a certain trades and by that point you provenly lost all your money
Yeah the bonuses are really shady! A lot of people have problems with those after getting convinced to accept them.
yes at first they want to lure u and now binary option scammers too many ald, be care of them. Must have trusted broker if u play.
When I was 12 I though I created this strategy I thought about it for a while and was proud of my self, then I learned it was a real thing that others use, then I watched this and I'm not angry just sad that it turns out my idea was crap
happened the same to but i was already 19
LOL, I went to the casino when I was 21. Had thought I was a genius. I played roulette, waited for one color to hit 4 times in a row... then bet 10$ and doubled for the next 7 spins, just had to hit red/ black once in 11 spins. And I thought, this is my job, surely my profits will take care of the weird cases I do lose 11in a row. saved enough to go broke 3 times... I was broke in one week. Many years ago, lesson learned.
The wheel has no memory, and every spin is still just a 48% chance of winning. You may be a great trader... for instance you possibly win 9 trades ( 4 in a row), lose 1... then win 8 (won 3 in a row) lose 2, ...next win 14 (won 9 in a row) lose 2... next day Win 2 trades, lost 7 in a row.... you're BROKE. If you didn't use this strategy, just a smart risk ratio... you're making good gains.
Mann, I was so naive. I figured, never in my lifetime will it be possible to lose more than 10 times in a row, there are only two options to choose and surely it's impossible (logic suggests)
I proceeded to lose 16 times in a row. it was not a good day for me, lost £600 and over £15,000 with practice money
Unfortunately sometimes we need to learn the hard way. At least you made the mistake early on with your trading and you won't sacrifice years of profit-building on a whim in future.
was on iq option so 100% gamble. and I lost 16 times with the practice account.
you need to work on your strategy. practice more bro.
Losing 16 times in a row man your luck is very good just do the opposite
If you lost 16 times in a row on one currency pair taking one trade at a time then your trading strategy is to blame for that, not the martingale. I've been using it for months, and I haven't lost 5 times in a row yet trading the way I described above (though I would recommend having enough to cover at least 7 or 8 in a row, but my volume & price action strategy is pretty decent, so I can get by with less)
Didn't know there's another term for revenge trade as well. Trading world is very interesting
what is the best strategy then? :/
Best strategy to not gamble ? :)
@@stanko03 in the market there is no such thing as zero gambling. The only time you can make money is if your prediction is correct. You can open a restaurant with the best strategy in the world but if the prediction somehow fails (e.g. a bigger, better,cheaper restaurant is opening just across yours) , there is nothing you can do. It's still part gambling.
I use Dollar Cost Average and it works just fine...
you are so right
like most of you I thought that it is impossible to lose 10 times in a row but you may understand it after try it for just one time. but if you want to test the martingle you can easily test it by a coin and heads or tails
that does not work for binary options,if u double ur bet 5 times in a row u already need to have a gain of 95% and most of the time u get less than 95% out so with 10$ u could only risk 150$ if u get 87.5%+ out.The chance of losing that is 1/16 even if u place ur money randomly
define a loss please
well i was one of them using this martingale .then i realize myself that is insane stupidity .now watching your this video its confirmed i was right thanks mate
what if i use only 1% in my capital and use martingale, will it works? i mean, if i have $1000, i should start trade from $10
10 /20/40/80/160/320/ no enough money
I would say so. But you have to use other indicators as well. Inuse s&r lines with volume and only trade certain stocks based on pre-market action.
8 Loses your account is gone papa
I know it as the Montecarlo method invented for Roulet, designed for pulling in mugs.
and it works (...for pulling in mugs!)
When i fist came across binary options it was in a add like travel the world and make money like me kind of thing. I've clicked on it just so that i can see whats this scam about. Then i was introduced to binary options, i was like wtf this thing is for real? So ive started looking in to it, youtube clips, platforms, brokers etc. and ive played on a demo account for a month or so with a relatively high success rate BUT, then all of the sudden i lose it ALL. I wondered how the fuck is this happening, today in particular. Thank you for the great tips, you have me subed to your channel.
Also i would like to say binary options are just playing gambling, you have the illusion of trading when you can see the trend and predict direction, but you cant predict the time constrain and thats where they get you. The good thing is they introduced me to forex trading and am going to learn how to trade properly... thank god i didnt deposit any of my real money on those binary shit.
Glad you didn't get stung by binary options. At least it has helped you find something which hopefully you will become consistently profitable with over time. Thanks for subbing.
Martingale works only in forex if you play the zone its hedging but you add to your bets. Pick a ranging market start with a small lot .1 you have 8 ranges till you are out if you have a 50000 account and thats with 4 positions open when does a market not break out after 8 ranges it works trust.
I play black and red on roulette with the martingale strategy , trust me it does not work. Once red came 15 times in a row.
but man every single casino in the world is manipulated otherwise what would the point of having such business be if there wasn´t secure profit??hehe.....if you bet at sports martingale might work,with trading as well or crypto the same...only in casinos believe me I have lost $$$ for years with that marntigale and it does not work at all in such places
I love this guy!.... He completely murdered the martingale method...I will definitely stop using it henceforth...
Thanks Simon, glad the video was able to help!
Thanks for the great video! Well I know one guy Who lost 23 times in a row by Red/black game at roulette. Not with martingale strategy But still. Imagine How much money he Would lost with martingale! 😂 it is impossiple strategy.
roulette in a casino environment can be manipulated.market cannot.
I think martingale works. If you are smart enough. Just cover up to 2 losing trades all the time. It will work.
i love this man
Ive bought my dream car using this strategy in the casino.
That’s because you employed the strategy and then stopped before disaster struck.
I'll have to learn the hard way I'm trying this strategy!
(BTW I am the worst money Management person I know)
sold your house yet?
But like professional Trader should be use Martingle Strategy, But normal is bad,
u're right ! unfortunatly i've lost 60% of my capital using thi sh**** thnks for ur advice Mr.Nicolas !
The most important thing is that you learnt from it! It will make you a better trader in the long run.
I do get your point, but from my side I think martingale is the best, has never failed me and have been doing it for years now, The only thing you need is a good bankroll and never use money you can not afford to lose. If you are going to use this strategy, you must be an expert at what you do.
I would suggest watching this: th-cam.com/video/TBU-GfOPnmQ/w-d-xo.html
If u know how to trade martingale it's amazing.
How did it work out for u lol? U should be a trillionnaire by now
@@kookokooko-xg5uo and what do you know about me? Nothing, so su ;)
The only way you can lose with the martingale system in trading is if you don’t follow your indicator lines! You only use this strategy on up trend or down trends! When the market is weak and sideways your chances of losing are high.. Bet the color that came last! I tried this with roulette started with 2600 and with 5dollar winnings went straight up to 5600 in about 10 hours.. Not a bad days work if you ask me.. Roulette is the risky one! If you are stupid enough to lose 7times in a row in trading it’s best you do some more homework on trends and indicators
absolutely correct!
if you have 7 losers in a row, just stop the trading for 20 minutes and go back to your minimum bet. Its not Martingale that is the problem, its your strategy at picking calls and puts. A lot of people are doing fine with Martingale.
its a gamble. its not perfect. There might be some other better strategies out there.
well if we consider 7 losses it also accounts for alot,and it not what everyone can lose,i myself have being using it,just before watching this video,and it took my 1/3 of investment and now i am stuck with only 2/3 of my investment as i stop after the 5th lose.
its not going up trying all day,all sorts of signals but in the end if you do it correctly you are only stuck where you are,but sometimes you can get lucky.
No one is doing fine with Martingale, idiot. Instead of doubling your losses until you blow up, spend a couple hundred bucks taking some math classes at the local college.
Im earning 500 with Martingale though...
Ur in denial
what a nice guy.
Hello,
If I can add my 2cents, after studying BO for 2 years, I can say there are profitable professional BO traders.
They DO NOT use Martingdale but a set amount of money each trade: most bet $100 each trade and make 5-8 bets per day, on average.
They do use price action and follow very specific price action strategies like, support/resistance levels, fibonacci retracements, and others. They have lot of patience and trade only, only when the specific setup appears on the chart. Success rate is 75+% and, if you do the math, at the ed of each day, they end up making money.
Don't get me wrong, BO is hard business; I just want to say that BO is not a 100% scam business, you just have to know what you are doing.
Exactly i hate to hear him talk down on binary options like its trash...
What IF... Let's say your strategy is to open multiple positions on a single trade, all of which is calculated risk and not losing more than 2% of your capital. Your first buy entry with a maximum stop loss of 100 pips, your second entry 50 pips below first with same stoploss price as the first; however, on a second entry you double your position size. Is it the same as Martingale's strategy? Again, the total risk is still 2%.
If you're controlling your overall risk at 2%, it's just scaling into a trade. I wouldn't necessarily take the approach you outlined, but it's fine to take that approach in principle.
Scaling into a trade, cool. I like that. Thanks
and what about the martin gale on 2 steps?
on some strategies better.
sorry for my english.
Any form of martingale is not a sensible approach for money management
i think it works with a very clear and good strategy. if your strategy is bad, never ever martingale.
I use martingale strategy but with my own calculations, I've been making profits fir the past 3 years, 25% to 35% profit per year.
Could you show me your martingale strategy?
please????
i agree ... it s actually possible... trading martingale whit automatic bot is different from casino martingale...a lot more variabiles in to the game...
You're the best
lol yall can try or never try all i know is that im making money easy only going for 50 euro a day starting with a balance of 200 now at +4000 in balance
JanCarlosM7 are you using martingale ?
hi, I know it was 3 years ago XD but are you using martingale ?
bravo
Start with a $1000 dollars and only do $1 dollar trades tripling for each loss.
Martingale is a fucking gamble system . don't use in trading ever. thump up for you bro
I used martingale and blew 4 accounts was in denial that it could fail if I had enough money to go up levels
may i know what is your capital for each accounts?
Yea you can win so much but when you lose you lose all
If your method for binary was 50/50 the odds of you losing 7 trades in a row would be 0.8%.... (1/2)^7 x 100/1 = 0.78125
That's the case if you only opened 7 trades. On a sample size of, for example, 100 trades, the chance of a losing streak of 7 is over 35% if you have a 50% success probability.
If you opened 100 binary trades, there's less than a 1% chance of 7 losing trades. The formula is (success/outcomes)^(number in a row) in this instance 7. It'll be (1/2)^7. to get that as a percentage just multiply it by 100. Binary options is the same as flipping a coin for heads or tails. Now if you have a 70% win rate, that will skew it even more, success in this case would be the losing trade, so (3/10)^7 x 100 = 0.02187% which is basically 1 in every 5000.
Your calculation shows the probability of it happening in the very next 7 trades. It doesn't show the probability of it happening at any point in the 100 trades, which is over 30%
It's based on binomial distribution. It's not of it happening in the next 7 trades. It's the percentage frequency of it occurring and reoccurring in an infinite test state. If you toss an unbiased coin 100 times, the odds of it coming up heads 7 times in a row is 0.8%, same for tails. This means it's most likely to come up the same side 7 times in a row just once. However if it was a biased coin, these odds would shift drastically. A biased coin is like following a set of guidelines or indicators that give you a 60/70/80% win rate etc.
That's how I would have thought to calculate it too originally and I would have agreed with you if I hadn't tried to look into it before. Unfortunately it's not that straight forward. Your calculation would work when the outcome is mutually exclusive, which is why I'm saying it's only for the next 7 trades if you're looking at losing 7 in a row. If you want it to not be mutually exclusive, i.e. can happen at any time during the 100 trades, it's a much more complex calculation (honestly, far too complex for me to calculate or even fully understand, without the use of Excel). If you search online for "k successes in a row benoulli trials" you'll find it explained in many places. Easiest thing is to use a probability calculator for 'runs'.
Look here guys I am a trader and believe Me or not I make 500 dollar a day using the martingale and at times a week I withdraw 3100 to 3500 and I start it with a dollar 1 minute trade and two rules I never ever predict the market and don't trade when there is a negligible difference between the buy and sell
This is not good what you are saying, firstly, if you bet 10£ and ya lose, you won't double you'r stake because if you will bet 20£ and you win, then you will be in a -2£.(in case of 80%profit) You need to put in 30£ in a trade to win all the loses+ all the profits. Secondly, I never heard someone losing more than 4-5 time in a row, If you have 100€ and bet first 1% out of all sum that's 1€, if you lose u go to 3€, if you lose you bet 8€, and that's awesome, because if u know how to read the chart you will win fast and recover all the loses.
i've seen this so many times in the casino. the amount they loose is stupid.
uneducated gambling
What I like about the news that people actually trade something as stupid as binary options (basically a horrifically bad casino game...slots pay better than binary options) using such a manifestly stupid "strategy" as double or nothing, is it explains where the gains of traders with a clue come from. The markets are zero sum...well, here's the minus side.
I do not understand at all. If you have a win rate of 70%, that means your probablity of losing is 30%.
if you lost 4 times i a row, the chance is 0.8%. to get 7 loses in a row, the chance is 0.02%, that is 70x less likely than the 1.4% you mentioned in the video.
Are you telling fake news?
No, you’ve just used the wrong calculation.
The martingale would neither recover the losses since if you loss you lost 100% and if you win they are just 80% ( supposing a 80% payput). So you will need a bigger permutation likes 2.5x. Here are 9 permutations to recover just 1 dollar and the total of the losses if you lost all the 10 "investments".
Of course any other (true) money management would be better than a martingale
1.00 + 0.80
2.50 + 1.00
6.25 + 1.50
15.62 + 2.75
39.06 + 5.88
97.66 + 13.69
244.14 + 33.22
610.35 + 82.05
1525.88 + 204.12
3814.70 + 509.29
Tot.
6357.16
u deserve to be a millionaire
Do the ANTI-MARTINGALE Strategy. 3 straights with 1:2 ratio. 🤑
This was a brilliant video Nicholas, I've done binary options and I've been exposed to this strategy. Take my word or not, it's a horrible little bastard. Note binary options want you to make more trades, and they'll try to MANIPULATE you with clever language to deposit more money. Invest studying the proper trading way and avoid binary options at all costs. Thanks to watching Nicks videos I'm a much much better trader.
Thanks a lot! 100% agree, it is absolutely a horrible little bastard!
very true bro thanks. Martingale doesn't work
martingale does work for traders with knowledge.
Well, we've got a billionaire here!
Guys, lets riot for you tube to allow photo commentz😢
Lemme guess before watching...Martingale??