Flood Warnings? Not a Concern. Rain Makes Grain!
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0:00 Flooding? Nah. Rain Makes Grain.
3:50 Drought Monitor
5:26 More UCO Imports
8:09 Biofuel to Drive Brazilian Soy Expansion
10:02 China Imports More US Soybeans
11:38 Ethanol Production Increases
13:35 Heat = Higher Electric Bills
🌾🌦️ Agricultural and Energy Sector Update: Weather Alerts, Crop Conditions, and Market Trends 📉🌞
Welcome back to our channel, where we analyze the latest in agriculture and energy sectors, providing insights into weather patterns, crop conditions, and market movements. Let’s dive into today’s significant developments.
Weather Impact on Agriculture
A storm system brought substantial rainfall to parts of South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin. Concurrently, much of the eastern Corn Belt is under a heat advisory, with both major weather models predicting dry conditions for the next five days but potential rainfall in the 5-10 day forecast. The government's 30-day outlook contrasts these models, predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across the US Corn Belt, which could stress crops in key growing areas.
Drought Monitor and Crop Conditions
Recent USDA drought monitor data reveals that despite some rainfall in the western and northern Corn Belt, drought conditions have seen limited improvement as these areas were not previously under drought stress. However, areas like Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois experienced worsening conditions due to insufficient precipitation, which could impact crop yields moving forward.
Biofuels and Agricultural Markets
The US has approved the import of Brazilian used cooking oil (UCO) for renewable fuel production, affecting local soybean markets already under pressure from increased biofuel feedstock imports. This approval could shift dynamics in the biofuel industry, impacting soybean farmers and crushers due to altered profit margins. Meanwhile, demand for biofuels is expected to continue driving Brazilian soybean production, potentially reaching 170 million metric tons next season if weather conditions are favorable.
Chinese Import Trends
Chinese imports of US soybeans surged last month, increasing by 156% compared to last year, influenced by reduced availability of Brazilian soybeans due to flooding. Despite this spike, Brazilian soybeans still dominate the Chinese market, highlighting the dynamic nature of global agricultural trade.
US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production saw an increase last week, with output and stocks rising, reflecting a boost in implied gasoline demand. This uptick is significant for the renewable energy market and could influence corn prices, as ethanol production is a major demand driver for corn.
Energy Costs and Consumer Impact
Record-breaking heat across the US is expected to increase household electricity bills this summer. Natural gas supply adjustments, made to stabilize prices after a warm winter reduced heating demands, are also playing a role in this uptick in energy costs.
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Another 2.28 inches of rain last night. We are in the middle of the rain belt this year. NW Iowa is extremely wet! Drove from Spirit Lake Ia. to Rochester, Mn. yesterday, wet all the way!
Se Illinois corn rolled up tight. Pollution should be starting in the next 2 weeks.
6.40" of rain in last 24 hours here in rural Scotland SD. Got whole fields under water
Bummer
There will be 100,000s of acres in NW IA, MN and Eastern SD lost due to too much water, the rest of the acres will be affected by the water by loss of nutrients!!
We have had just decent rains and yet the cold trimmed are planting, I replanted Fields because of cold-related problems, when you dig up the plants they look more like onions than they do corn. No roots, a flash drought will kill this corn.
North Central Iowa has been wet all year. More yellow corn than I have seen in several years. Fair amount of June planted soybeans. Lots of sprayers got stuck. I am sure yields will be worse than the last 4 dry years.
What did China do with their cooking oil before sending it to us? Did they run it through their diesel engines? If so, now they’re using fossil fuels and shipping their used oil half way around the world. Doesn’t that make a net increase in carbon emissions?
In a different country don't count
That's not the point. The point is to destroy the U.S. and American's standard of living.
Western Canada here. Markets are disinterested in everything, except pushing prices further down the toilet. Crops are 2 wks behind here and frost, flooding and slow crop development is taking place here. There has been been very little warmth.
For the most part Western Canada is seeing lots of rain, which is good for the farms who have had several yrs of drought.
Yes, rain makes grain but you need a lot of other factors to get the grain in the bin.
Crop spraying has been difficult. Wind, wind, and more wind.
Have a good wk end.
South central MN here. Have been fortunate to miss a lot of the heaviest rains, and still have had 14 inches in 19 rain events since May 2nd. It can still be worse,I remember the fall of 1993, Half of the corn had been plowed under locally, (800,000 acres abandoned in upper midwest) Local hog farm offering 50 cents over the local price if you had any corn that was over 50 lb test weight. Cbot finally woke up after the Nov crop report. Gary Wilhelmi "Well, the market finally figured out it rained last summer."
seems like history might rhyme this year.
@@joshcourrier3451 The difference so far was the very cool temps, it never got over 80° that summer. Time will tell. Mt Pinatubo was blamed then. There been a couple pretty large volcanos the past couple years, seems to bring extreme rainfall events.
cant get the spraying done, cant get the shit holes planted... be lucky if we can get out y-dropping done in july, grain markets falling out of bed. absolutely disgusted with the situation.
6 million acres of beans to plant & most of that in Mn,SD,ND and Wisconsin where it's been the wettest.
Question to ask us is how many acres of corn was planted Apr 10-25th? Cause that's the only people that care if rain 4th July to pollination. Bet most was May 15th or after. Here in Bloomington/Peoria. Hell of a lot of knee high corn and starting to roll up. Those plants decide NOW what kind of ear it will develop. Best keep up with Eric's weather forecasts. 😊
weve had so much rain here in south central minnesota - definately dont need this round - feels like we have more lakes than planted acres at this point. we've replanted some areas twice already and looking at doing it again
East central Iowa had good rain on Thursday. Previous wet spots have mainly filled in and are dark green now.
We missed all the rains in central nebraska they were talking up this week not a issue yet but very close corn is from shoulder high to not emerged. Beans are all in my opinion shitty. The bigger beans have poor stands the smaller beans are way behind
Last year we were dry but cool temps and smoke in the air. This year we are dry but temps are much higher. We planted in dust last year, this year we planted into more moisture. Eventually yield monitors will say what year is better.
Dry here in NW Illinois. Some isolated storms but no widespread rain.
Good morning from West Central Wisconsin. My question is, what are we really seeing in the real world?? We have some corn and beans ok,a lot not very good, and really, how many acres are under water and do to flooding?? In the past, we never saw the real numbers of lost acres . And getting pounded by more rain....
Southern mi. Crops look great! Later planted put looks good!
nw central ohio. went up north 1 county to see our crop insurer. [hardin] they have fields that were flooded out PP acres now. then late planted fields that are about to burn up, soybeans are the worst. they probably have a few days with no rain till their completely burned out. their corn will hold on a bit longer.. but their already talking severely reduced corn crop for that county, maybe a 100bu/ac . no rain is predicted for ohio for a while. so beginning of a crop weather event.
Cold and wet in North Dakota. I will be very surprised if we combine any corn in the fall. My prediction is a lot of combining in march and April next year. Wheat and corn are yellow from lack of heat, fertility leached away.
Worse up here in many areas northbof the border. Lots of unseeded acres in Manitoba. Crops will need some heat units to finish up before fall frosts. Good luck to all farmers.
After all of the grain Friday night's rain made, Southern MN/Northern IA corn should avg 450bu/a
Good morning! What do you think of the heavy rains in the northwest Corn Belt?
So if the funds want to make the farmers go broke let's just leave the planters in the shed next year buy some corn and bean contracts , let some people go hungry let the fuel go thru the roof
Those weather model maps from a week ago were showing our area getting 2-3 inches this week, most of area only got .10-.15 . Temperature forecasts always more accurate than precipitation it seems.
Pennsylvania starting to show stress in corn. 5 day looks dry here. Abnormal highs in the 90’s here. Corn End rows and corners are curling pretty good. If we don’t get rain until July….we will start to see potential quality and yield losses.
I believe we are already losing. I was spraying 3 days ago and found an area in a field probably as big as an area a combine would take up just sitting there that was still rolled from the day before and it was gray. Any time I've seen that in the past that corn is lost. I'm sure that area is bigger now it's been 3 days since I've seen it
8" of rain in the last 24 hrs in sw mn. Lots of stuff under water. It is comparable to 2019. It has been extremely wet all spring. Dont think anything will be able to save this crop
that was fantastice
I have to ask if they factor in the shipping emissions from China to the US in that 'green energy' use of used cooking oil.
NO. But they will count the energy of the sun when growing corn. You can count on the loony insane left.
SW MN is wet.. we’ll have some acres around go PP, and drown out sure, but right now it’s got a good potential for a big crop. some nutrient deficiency showing in corn due to elevated rains, which will cure itself in about a week. we were dry and warm and got in and planted a few weeks early, I think planting date makes up the lost acres to PP, and drown outs, at least in my county.
If the bottom 3 rows of counties in MN plus the top 2 rows in Iowa was a state, The corn yield would be just under Illinois on average. For some reason the market always seems way more concerned about the crop in the #5 corn state than #4. Closer to Chicago?
Got stuck spraying corn last night. Impossible to make dry hay. NE WI.
Is there any validity to the claims that used cooking oil imports were fradulent or actually petroleum?
6.3 inches in about 20 hours south central SD
Bummer
US natural gas exports have been rising steadily year on year it is showing no sign of slowing, however can US natural gas growth continue to keep prices low, it generally comes as a bi product of shale oil and i see that begining to roll over.
Bottom line US gas prices are as low as they are going only upwards from here.
TGIF