The State of the Hobby Over the Last Few Years & Today
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2024
- BASEBALL CARD COLLECTOR INVESTOR DEALER (in that order)
Chris Sewall here.
If you have a collection you would be interested in selling me, send me an email at: sewallsportscards@gmail.com
============================================================
If you really enjoy my content, you're welcome to support me and my channel with a donation via PayPal.
Link to PayPal donation: paypal.me/Chri....
============================================================
YOU CAN CHECK OUT SOME OF MY CARDS FOR SALE:
My COMC account: www.comc.com/U....
My eBay store: www.ebay.com/u...
============================================================
You can also support the channel but checking out some of our quality affiliates:
Card Hedge: www.cardhedger...
============================================================
CHANNEL SCHEDULE (all videos post 9:00am EST):
MONDAY: Miscellaneous (Stories, Hobby News, etc)
WEDNESDAY: High Rollers
THURSDAY: Regular Rollers
SATURDAY: Miscellaneous (Reveals, Lists, etc)
=============================================================
baseball cards, football cards, basketball cards, hockey cards, soccer cards, t206 Honus Wagner, 1952 topps mickey mantle, 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson, 1933 goudey babe ruth, 1989 upper deck Ken Griffey Jr, 1993 SP Derek Jeter, 1981 Topps Joe Montana, 2017 Patrick Mahomes, 1996 Topps Chrome refractor Kobe Bryant, 1986 fleer michael jordan RC, 2003 exquisite, 2003 topps chrome gold refractor LeBron James, 2000 Tom Brady, 2017 Patrick Mahomes, Mike Trout, Steph Curry, Lionel Messi, National Treasures, 2012 panini prizm, silver prizm, panini flawless, ebay, PSA, Beckett, BGS, SGC, BVG, GEM MINT 10, PRISTINE 10, HGA, CSG, GMA, Goldin auction, Heritage auction, Pwcc, probstein123, COMC, starstock, card ladder, bowman chrome xfractor, Rookie card, rookie patch autograph, RPA, donruss optic holo
They are still printing that 89 Griffey
I’m sure someone is somewhere…and it’s just like printing money for sellers AND graders.
It's like the Fed's endlessly printing $100 bills..
😂😂😂
Yeah, but compared to todays print runs, the 89 UD Griffey is RARE. I doubt anything 2018-now will retain much value long term, unless it is a super rare auto version. I mean print runs from 2010-2014 baseball are absurdly low…. So Trout, Betts, Arenado, etc. will be fine. Vintage will be fine too….
@@jonathonsantamont8527 agreed. It was just always a joke about upperdeck still printing that griffey card
Just like those charts, there is a lot of noise in the hobby today. I come to Chris’s channel again and again for smart, common sense hobby talk and analysis. Thank you
Great video, Chris. I’d say if you were an active buyer/collector pre-2019, you likely have an optimist view, and if you started buying/collecting in early 2021, you likely have a cynical view, 😂
Great content chris. Having owned stores in 80's and 90's , we were really handicapped on pricing , no internet. Beckett was brand new. I have a run over truck division first copy. I wonder if collectors realize how difficult it was to operate a lcs.... we'd get a sample of the card and order form. Then you ordered by the case , usually cases , paid in full , and waited months for product. Usually delayed , It became impossible to keep up , with all the new companies and different levels of product , that we had to turn to secondary market , card shows , luckily in Ny we had the national , Gloria Rothstein had the monopoly. In 90, I went to buy montana rookies for my shop. $75 in mint in beckett. Couldn't touch a nice one for less than $125 , bought a few , but only to satisfy some steady customers. They had price fixed it as it was a week before the superbowl , which of course he went on to win. On this topic. Giving someone a Jeter , or Griffy Rookie etc... as a way to start them in collecting is great and affordable and will always be a demand ( there are always extreme cases , a skeleton in the closet perhaps ) but not super investment cards. New cards are fun , always will be. But we tend to overpay on hype , over and over again. Then blame the Hobby ... because some people have taken a big hit especially on Jordan and Kobe . But we know why. Kobe's tragedy, and Jordan / Covid / Last dance. So as always. Have fun firat , dont spend more than you can afford. I used to have to cut people off from buying and ripping in the store , put limits on number of packs you could buy per day , so everyone could get some. All in all , was a community that we built , we collected together, played ball together. It was more of a hangout and we had the best times. Thanks for letting me share. Miss those days
I'm a 60 year old woman who started collecting in the 90's to introduce students to the ideas of hobby cillecting. I loved the atmosphere of card shop and all the knowledge the owners and other collectors provided.
Right! Remember when we didn’t have the internet and card grading? All we had was Dr. Beckett 😂. Or if you were strapped for cash you’d grab the Tuff Stuff or Sports Card Trader. That was the only window into card value and knowing what cards were perceived as iconic. How things have changed.
I’ve noticed that there are not as many buyers on Craigslist as there were 18 months ago.
There's no one buying unless they are trying to get it cheap to flip quickly.
@@KingKuba1313 Can't tell by Probstein auctions. They still shilling away.
@@KingKuba1313 I have to disagree with that .. I see stuff selling on eBay often "auctions" , I see my local shop with people always in it , I had a booth a month ago and got swamped when the sun was out for a few hrs , I see people looking for cards everywhere I go .. Thrift stores see it to when they get stuff in ... Card market is hot while the price on things has come down some , there's still a ton of people out there collecting . Vintage cards are and always will be popular .. That is what drives the hobby , and that's what I do my business in .. I touch very little modern ..
Chris your research and insight are so valuable nice work!
Great video topic.
Would love to see 5 & 10 year breakdowns of a selection of mid grade (PSA 5-7)Vintage Football, Basketball,etc!🎉❤
Great video Chris! I love your videos about the realities of collecting, investing, and dealing.
I picked up on two indicators in Feb 2021- first I purchased a Sandberg RC for 1k and it was comping at 2400 before it arrived in the mail. Second was the Griffey drop. I unloaded the Sandberg and wish I would have unloaded more.
Really enjoyed this. I’ve been in the hobby for about 40 years, and this was a new and interesting way to look at things. I feel that that prices slightly increased from 2010-2019-maybe 5-10% a year, but I don’t have the data to see if that feeling is correct. If the hobby doesn’t expand, moving with nominal GDP seems about right.
I like the breakdown Chris. Grading has in large part unfortunately altered, see what i did there, how we view cards. I have been a collector since 1987 and I feel Fanatics wanting to 10x the hobby is very unrealistic without overprinting across the board. Over time I feel that sealed wax and vintage will hold value. I'd love to see the data on pre 1980 vintage stuff the last 5 years to see how it has fared. I still feel the best part of the hobby experience is going through dollar bins at card shows. Helps save money like buying a used Camry.
Love to see a video on the biggest up and coming cards... UFC !
Very interesting analysis Chris!!! I have noticed that the flipper videos are gone now. Back in 2021 people were buying cards and selling them three weeks later for a profit. I assume these people have left the hobby and thus the prices have settled. Oh and I ate my veggies last night, the wife made me do it!!! lol
Thank you for a great video. Appreciate your expertise and opinions. Let's get back to basics and great athletes.
Good job research team!
Yes, I think we all should understand that we just went through a huge upsurge in interest and activity that has subsided and that the hobby and prices will likely revert to a slow, steady upward trajectory for sometime to come...
Chris is the GOAT.
If you take 15 plus years back from 2018, the prices of cards were mostly flat. The rise in prices of cards starting in 2020 was incredible and great for what I owned but put quite a strain on my buying and still does today since I buy low pop vintage. I could go to the National decide to put off a buy until the next years National knowing the price would not change much but not anymore. as many of my desired cards are now way beyond my budget and hard to spring for with those old prices still ringing in my head
Take your time, most of these cards aren't going anywhere
Great content. I just started collecting again after leaving the hobby in the early 80s. Opening packs, atteding card shows and going to the LCS were my main sources for adding to the collection. The Internet has changed the game. Cards are much more accessible but there is also a lot of speculating. I try to stick with vintage because I feel like those are the blue chippers and I enjoy the older cards. What do you see as the trend with those cards in the 50s -70s?
Kobes are still undervalued. Especially the lower pop ones
It would be extremely interesting to see a video like this, but factoring in inflation. Instead of using dollars, you could say, how many hours of work at minimum wage, would it have taken to obtain key cards across the decades. Or, how many gallons of milk or gas, would it have taken to get the card in different decades? Card values using dollars will almost always rise. But are the actual values going up?
Real inflation near 20% each of the last two years.
But the national minimum wage hasn't changed in the last 5 years. Talk of the $15 minimum has been there and certain states have raised, but nationally it hasn't changed. You would have to take into account all wages and their assumed increase in a given time frame.
I remember working in a card shop in the 90's... we had so many copies of the 96 paper Kobe it was crazy. We couldn't sell them for a couple bucks each. The chrome stuff came out of nowhere being a retail only product. Thanks for the trip back in memory lane !
I was going through the back room of a store I work at a few months ago and found a binder of 96 topps iverson and kobe rookies. Like 40 kobes including 7 that came back as a 10, and about 25 iversons that came back as a 10. They were just commons back then, multiple per box. Nowadays they are worth enough that we still graded the kobes we knew would be a 6 or 7 grade. Nobody even knew we had them.
@@gabriels1163 exactly ! I remember putting in one of those giant plastic snap cases all of kobes.. it's crazy how much people are paying for them. And he had sk many rookies !!!
@@winstonw2020 Yeah the rarity of his base rookies is not much different than Shaqs from 5 years earlier, but the prices sure are.
@@gabriels1163 oh yes we cracked a ton of that stuff. We had tons of Shaqs as well.
The Covid BOOM was a once in a lifetime opportunity to SELL. Hopefully steady growth ahead as Fanatics gets an opportunity to lead the charge…
Chris, thank you for using a card from each of the three major sports in your analysis.
I'm with you, I deal a lot in low supply & low demand stuff. I do a lot of under the radar non-sports as well as pre-war oddball. I also mess around on the pop report.
Professor In the house!
Well said. 🍻
Thank you again for the insights
Ive collected since I was 9 years old in 2007. It is really unfortunate I was not a few years older during the steep rise in prices. I was in college during that time, and didn't quite have the funds to purchase cards I now can. I did get lucky on some cards though. Most notably, I bought a 2018 Topps Acuna bat down SP rookie card for $30 late in 2018. It graded an 8 (boo!) and was a $1000 card for awhile. It's dropped similarly to the rest of the hobby, but it is still worth several hundred even now.
I do feel the pain for everyone who didn't sell in 21
Thanks Chris for all you work, still looking for time machine portal as well
Similar chart shape and trend in other collectible categories too.
Vintage is the only way to go
I also think we'll need to add the value of the currency to these calculations at some point.
Like an idiot, I thought that I could affect the supply of the 1989 Hoops 138 David Robinson RC because it's supposedly already SP, short print. I went on eBay and bought a bunch - ironically or not, about 50 - raw cards and lots of the card and proceeded to cut them in half. I know now I would never have scratched the surface of the actual supply. Just dumb 😅
Crazy to think you could have turned 4 grand into 50 grand in 3 years with griffey psa 10s. Or 500 bucks into 100 thousand with kobe
FUCKKKKK! I messed up man!
Hindsight is 20-20. Of course looking back you should have dumped 4k into sports cards...but who at the time would have type of expendable income and investment thesis to drop on a speculative play hoping it pans out like that, then sell at the perfect time after a parabolic move in price. Also keeping in mind you'd have to pay taxes...
@@jackietucker5121 so many pit falls, lol. Probably best to be Sultan of Burnie since I'm dreaming
The junk wax era of the late 80s and early 90s has been replaced by the junk parallel era … now rare cards are numbered, but have x10 different color variations bleu, red, gold, black, etc. In the end, it’s a twisted way of overprinting yet trying to make it seem like it’s a rare card …!
Chris, this is such a great video for perspective. Always great content. I think we saw a perfect storm anomaly price boom during early Covid that may not happen again. However it’s driven a lot more attention and interest to the hobby. Strike that anomaly and values are trending up. I think this is a positive view for collectors and thoughtful investors.
The great part about the high supply/high demand quadrant is that you get a lot a data points to establish a reasonably legit value for comps.
Great point
I'm also hoping for a continued baseline at today's prices for now. It's looking pretty good for that lately, but would love to see another 6-12 months of a continued liquid market at the current levels (before counting on that being likely!)
This is smart and good stuff! My sadness is that I restarted in in early 2019 and rode up through early 2020 - but the cards have all fallen since then. I imagine there will be an escalation in about 5 years. There are other reasons for austerity.
Vintage sports shack, angola, indiana...
About low supply, low demand category, how will it become low supply, high demand? That's how collectors usually find the rarer treasures. Would you ever do a video on low pop low demand cards that could become more desirable one day?
Thats a good idea for a video... Ill consider something on that
I'd say you nailed it bang on. Great info and perspective.
I never thought the plain Topps version of players would sell for way more than all the high end brands made at the time. Topps was literally the cheapest low quality card you could get.
Interesting information, Chris. Definitely something people who think the sky is falling need to see and try to understand. Funny thing about the cards you chose - I own at least 3 raw copies of each. 7 Kobe's. I got lucky on those. When he tore his achilles and the Lakers were bad you could buy raw nm-mt copies for 3-5$. I bought several
Good info as always
Is there anyone better at explaining these concepts in the hobby? I mean... let's be real here. Fantastic content yet again, thanks for your dedication, Chris!!
Definitely think your breakdown is accurate in that I think the post-pandemic crash is not an overall crash to pre-pandemic levels. Anecdotally, one place I have noticed a change in prices is in Bowman Chrome first-year autographed cards in baseball. For years I would try to get all the prospect autographs (in the base refractor parallel) of Red Sox players from the Bowman sets. Pre 2019, non Top 100 prospects could be had for around $10 on eBay. Those same types of prospects now go for more; pitchers would be more like $15 to $20 and hitters can be more than that.
He specifically stated he chose retired players that performance on field and speculation would not factor into the price fluctuations. Buying recent rookie autos are not in this category.
@@walterdudedonny Yeah, I wasn't trying to reiterate his point or recreate his methodology, but just observing a different part of the hobby where I think prices have gone up on average.
The source for these cards are ripper/flippers try to breakeven or turn a small profit cracking the new packs. You're probably seeing the increase in general, new release, box prices passed through to the low level prospect autos. And yeah, prices at the new release box level probably aren't going to come down much.
A thing about low manufacturing numbers is that people don't know that stuff exists quite often and how do you quantify a value to something the vast majority of collectors won't see, thus not creating any interest? Mem cards live in this bubble.
Nice show Chris
Great video; I think it captures what people need to know.
Really enjoyed this one! I would personally love to a see a similar video covering low supply high demand type cards and your thoughts on the volatility of higher end cards.
Great video is always. What's missed in all this is the fact that the Government handed out supposedly free money , of course we're all paying it back now with inflation but this hyper inflated prices of sports card market
Great video ! As you mention supply and demand. I would like to see a breakdown of the supply of graded cards over the past 5 years. I'm sure those numbers have greatly increased over the past 5 years. Can I easily check on the supply of individual cards graded over the past 5 years ?
I am not sure where to get that data but that would be interested to see
Idk maybe gemrate has that info?
Your content is legit… thank you
Thanks for research. Good stuff.
Thst was a solid summary
Nice to have you back Chris!
Your videos are always great
Very helpful, informative and interesting topics
Keep ‘‘em coming mate!
I’m wondering if vintage had this same ride? I’d guess yes.
Good time to low ball great rare cards.
I collected during the junk wax era. I kept some rookies but haven’t graded any. I just see the same thing happening again unless you spend big money on a box but even that scares me because you see on TH-cam all these hits it’s breakers. Just shaking my head how many young kids will be holding junk like I did.
Logarithmic charts are more informative for this application than a typical y axis chart.
The Warren Buffet of card collecting. Do you use any equipment to evaluate cards to send for grading? Do you use a loop or other equipment to check your cards?
Thank you! I personally do not use anything other than my own eyes.
Good video. The only way almost anyone had any idea of rarity on cards back then is maybe a card show or card shops; nowadays its all about judging scarcity of a card from PSA population reports. 😂
The real answer is that liquidity came to the hobby from speculators and so much money came in and bid up high demand cards. When that liquidity went away, the prices fell because some people needed to pay back loans and some people needed the cash for other reasons. As they left, a new reference price was created that people will anchor to as prices stabilize again. The question will be what happens to this artificial supply on the new box side and how many people who entered the hobby because they were gamblers will leave as the wind continues to be let out of the sails and substitutes for the activity come to the fore.
Cool vid always with the knowledge nice way to look how hobby is doing
An 89 Upper Deck Griffey was 50 buck back in 89. I can pick em up all day today for fiddy bucks. Its technically has lost value if you count inflation.
Holy moly I was with you since 4k I look up today and you at 60k congrats my guy! Staple in the hobby!
Here's something I have never understood -
Why is the '89 Upper Deck Griffey so much more $$ than the '89 Topps, Bowman, Donruss or Fleer? All were equally overproduced, all are equally available. There is nothing special about the UD except the cost.
its what is popular thus in demand even tho it was overproduced
The UD card has a lot of history to it, being the 1st card in the 1st Upper Deck set.
U had to be there then to understand....upper deck was like 5 bucks a pack back then and Topps was 50cents a pack
@@cincytino9153 I was there then.
Nice video Chris! I tend to agree with the card market mirroring investing in the Stock Market. There are going to be peaks and valleys but at the end of the day you are going to be in the positive if you invest in the right cards - not risky speculative cards. Like the Stock Market you don’t jump out in the bear market but rather capitalize on buying great cards at cheaper prices.
When it comes to cards, I only invest in WWE,PSA or SGC10 Autos especially the women they go up in value quickly
My takeaway from the charts: If you're a pool man speculating on cards, don't quit your day job.
The Hobby is no different than the stock market or housing market where you have Boom Bust scenarios. What would be interesting to see is the comparison between the three. Your high supply high demand is akin to let’s say a popular stock that decides to Split to produce more shares and in the end dilute its value. The pre 2019 chart to the 2019-2022 what is the common denominator? Lockdowns over a virus.
2020 nostalgia and stimulus, 2021 stimulus and PPP loans
Always great intelligent content
Maybe a popular and new IPO stock would be a better comparison. Stock splits don't really change supply, demand, or value in a meaningful way. The concept doesn't make sense in terms of collectibles.
@@ikhbjhbkm5 ..stock splits water down the float. In other words make more shares worth less.
@@gh4121-b5n I mean, sure double the shares, cutting the price in half. Changes very very little. Stock splits change almost nothing meaningful. Other than a little short term hype among people who mostly dont know what's happening.
Griffey’s cards all took a big jump after a new documentary on his life & career came out over a year ago
Awesome video. Hard to get kids into cards because of the price these days. Basketball players and musicians like Snoop buying cases like water has contributed to this.
Love the video. Thanks for your insight as always
Great video Chris, it's important to also point a lot of new sport cards hobbyist joined during that peak and they gravitated towards base. For instance the 96 chrome refractor of kobe's rc holds up well , especially if there is no hulking. It was a great time to sell cards that had no business selling for what they were selling. For those that remain in the hobby you understand a little bit more about parallels and serial # cards that one should be collecting/buying that can hold value.
I have every one of those and more but having trouble selling what do I do
You forgot everyone’s Covid money went to inflation! Nice job liked it.
Exactly- that “outlier” period ‘20-‘21 was driven by the so called “lockdown “ and ridiculous helicopter money that dropped during and after that fueled this inflation
Solid breakdown, great vid!
An interesting video I would like to see is a compilation of TH-cam hobby content creators and what they were saying about the boom while the boom was in progress. Were they warning that a crash in prices was imminent, to ride the wave ... what were they suggesting or predicting?
Great vid... yea similar things are happening in the pokemon market... the question that I had at the start of 2023 is what will happen 3 years from now and I honestly have no idea, it feels like theres alot of enthusiasm about cards/collectables still as an investment but how long can this hold idk I really do not kjow
Economics lesson and sports cards on a Monday....nice. Do you do trigonometry? LOL
Chris you should include hockey as it has many high supply high demand cards that have not dropped much since covid.
The only sport to do so.
As it stands the most competitive league in the world and it barely ever gets talked about.
I keep buying those Griffeys raw to try to 9 and 10 them
A lot of cards are still up from their pre-boom levels but there's room to drop. Especially when the economy goes bad again. The 02 and 08 recessions kept prices down and flat for years.
people that had money /investors needed to park money somewhere so they went to collectibles esp people that flipped shoes since they couldnt get them to flip ( supply chain issues due to pandemic) it skewed everything cuz they did not understand the hobby you will never see that spike again and the floor has yet to hit bottom we have a ways to go yet
McDavid YG went up 10x from covid and it is still up 10x.
Someone tell those people the boom is over....
Can you run an analysis like this for card type? Logoman, Shields, Precious Metals Gems, etc? I've seen a huge uptick just recently on the PMG chase personally, and have seen some cards of my target player go for 5x - 20x what other similar print run cards go for. A 1 of 1 relic card maybe $30, but the 1 of 1 Shield for $600?
You had people sitting at home with nothing to do and stimulus money coming in, easy to do online shopping for cards. Grading creates an 'artificial' limited supply, which is why even cards from the junk wax era can sell for high amounts. When some people are pushing things like F1 cards, red flags should be going off about the pump-n-dump crowd. There is no real demand for these cards, F1 has a really small following, most Americans can't name an F1 driver. I suspect the hobby will go back to being flat, which is fine with me, just get the vintage cards I've always wanted for my personal collection.
100% this analysis
MORAL to the STORY: When people are foolish enough to pay stupid, crazy prices for something......and YOU HAVE IT - SELL, SELL, SELL!
Hi Chris, this is refreshing content on the subject of sportscards, thank you for your dedication and consistency in posting videos. I've always wondered what led to the sudden interest in sports cards in the 2020s, and if this phenomena is unique to this resurgence in interest: social media influencing, the covid pandemic, across all sports with great draft classes these past few years. What is it about this peculiar "zeitgeist", as it was a perfect storm for sports rcards to flourish, and will it ever happen again? What kind of conditions would be met in order for sports cards to become an interest to the mainstream public? In my opinion, I believe a certain set of conditions was met in order for the mainstream to be interested, and sadly I believe it mainly to be about monetary gain.
These comments are hilarious today! Now what in the comment section is going on here today 🤣
I see comments abt government, stimulus checks, covid, WU TANG, jugs of milk - oh & I read something abt a GOAT...
Goat - best comment. Hands down. A good Monday to you Chris! Thank you. Hope all is well.
I stopped actively collecting, after almost 40 years, in 2010. Wish I would have been watching in 2021. Boy there was money to be made then!!
👍great value comparison over the years for the cards !.. I personally believe there is going to b some more decline in pricing for the coming months .🤔
The hilarity. Why would anyone invest in common, unnumbered, high pop cards? Buy a low numbered one!
10k for a paper kobe is really wild!
While it sucks for that person, but i think we all made mistakes by buying cards in 2021 (most particulary, high supply or ultra modern cards). Most everything i bought in 2021 - and, 2022 - was regrettable, sans my Mickey's, Babe's, 1935 National Chicle Football cards and low pop vintage...
Overall the price for a box of cards are out of reach for kids. And parents with kids.
Is PSA 10 3x a 9?
It varies heavily card to card
@@collectorinvestordealer Justin gamble gamble said PSA 10s and 3x Raw.
💚💙💜
Real inflation (using 1981 CPI, not today's manipulated CPI) near 15% each of the last three years, so numbers are skewed.