“Free assault rifles for everyone” made sense when Ukraine (and Russia, and everyone else) expected Russian air superiority immediately, Kyiv to fall in days, and the country to be fighting an insurgency almost immediately
In my opinion, the Ukrainians were lucky, very lucky, that they did not have a President who tried to run to the States when trouble came knocking. That was the one best part of this war for them. The Russian assault on Kyiv all seems to be a waste, until you realise what Putin's plan probably was - he was banking on Zelensky doing the same thing as Viktor Yanukovich, that he was just another oligarch with money who'd flee Ukraine to save his skin. And when Zelensky flees, Russian special forces would be out and about, ready to capture or kill him. There's no need for that much expertise, except for a few specialist units. Here's the thing. Ukrainian intelligence must've been doing a yeoman's service, because Volodymyr Zelensky was wise enough not to run away. He probably knew that once Russian troops filtered in, there would be nowhere for him to run or hide and IMHO, that has made all the difference. Had he simply run away, it would've made "disarmament" and occupation far easier for Russia.
@@meilinchan7314 Yeah, the loss of morale from Zelensky fleeing [or worse, being captured] would have been significant. Him standing and fighting [so to speak] is good for the morale of your army. Knowing their leadership isn't cutting and running to save themselves will certainly stiffen morale.
@@meilinchan7314 Interesting point. It's easy to forget in hindsight that Zelenskyi fleeing the country and the Russians taking Kyiv very quickly without much resistance wouldn't have been that surprising. It's actually a monument for how little even the experts know about true state of things. A year ago, an overwhelming majority of experts were pretty convinced that a) Russia is bluffing and they won't invade and b) Ukraine would fall in weeks were they to invade. Well, look how that turned out.
For some reason these "PowerPoint" style videos are so much more interesting and attention grabbing than any professional presentation I've ever had to sit through. Thanks for these vids
It's exactly like a great university lecture and I mean that in the best way possible. In my 4 years of college I have experienced the entire spectrum of college lectures, from the unbearably boring to the captivating and incredibly interesting. These videos fall firmly in the latter and make me want to learn more, which is everything that a university education is supposed to be. The vibe and the feeling I get from these videos is exactly the same as the one I got from my favorite college professor and I love it.
@@ThaFunkster100 I'm pretty sure that a lot of Russians are in favor of this military operation, but if you took away the propaganda & state news monopoly and gave them facts, the question is if it would stay that way.
Just to give you some context: here in Ukraine, people are giving bribes TO BE on the frontline. People ranked as colonels agree to command just one company just to be in the fight
I can tell you that the fact of social mobilization was not a surprise to us Ukrainians at all. The effectiveness was not a surprise either because we just had no bar for how effective it would or should be. People knew that we needed to support the military any way we could and that is pretty much it. It happened in 2014 so everyone knew it would have to happen again in 2022. Honestly I think the West has had it's expectations poisoned by Afganistan that fell in a week. Even if Russians were as capable as was expected saying a city of 4 million people will fall in 2 days is just not realistic. There have been some other downsides to massive use of ordinary people other than the ones you have mentioned. In the first day of the war people started finding "marks" all over Kyiv and other places left by collaborators and Russian spies and everyone went haywire going around looking for them and reporting them. Same went for reporting suspicious people on the streets. In the end the government offcial had to come out and tell people that modern weapon systems do not use marks on the ground to coordinate fire. In the end all that spy mania left police in a sea of reports of spies and marks and everything you could think of which lowered the actual capabilities of police and military to catch spies and collaborators. In the end spies were caught when authorities implemented a ban to leave the house for people for like 36 hours straight and then some other general restrictions to walk around the city in the evening/night. Second issue were the omnipresent checkpoints in the western Ukraine that were meant to control traffic and seach for suspicious vehicles and led to major delays in delivery of western supplies because trucks had to stop every five fucking minutes at checkpoints. In the end officials had to once again come out and tell people not to build a checkpoint at every corner and to disassemble many already existing ones. There were many other smaller examples but the common thing among them is that when people are supercharged to help and there is nothing to do they start doing things they are not capable of achieving and end up being a nuisance. Also a word about mobilization - it is an expensive tool to pull out people from their jobs and it is very costly so it was an economic decision mostly. It is not the first time Zelensky chose economy over security such as with his decision to invest into infrastructure insted of the military so it is not uncharacteristic of him.
I think no Ukrainians around the planet were surprised by this. My 16 yo told me he wished were 18 so he didn’t have school and could go fight for Ukraine. All he knows of Ukraine are the family stories and history passed down from my grandparents, and this Russian threat to our tough little tribe calls us all so strongly. 💪 Be well & be safe! 🙏
I am just an old Marine, but I never doubted Ukraine's ability to defend itself. It was clearly the wrong time of year to mount an invasion. You are using your strengths in small group tactics very well. Slava Ukraine!
I observed that over zealous impetus and it had me worried, as the fear of spies and saboteurs mixed with a citizen's militia can lead to horrendous accidents. I feel relieved things seem to have worked out so far. Slava Ukrajini
Here in Finland next to Russia our active duty army is merely 21.000 men. However wartime strength is 280.000 men and altogether we have a reserve force of 900.000 men. Finland has a conscript system, which means that most men serve in the army at the age of 18 or so and serve for 6-12 months depending on their chosen field. We have this system as it would be too costly to maintain a large professional army. This has an added benefit of high willingness to defend the country among the Finns. Most Finns are ready to defend the country if we are dragged into a war. Willingness to fight for the country is the highest in Europe 74%. Third on this list is actually Ukraine with 62%. However have to admit that the Ukrainian willingness and courage makes me think Ukraine is number one ;)
Actually pre-war polls in Ukraine showed "willingness to fight" was around 60% which is typical for most democratic nations. Things always change when it's actually for real though and it's not always an accurate measure of just how hard the citizens are willing to fight.
Putting a checkmark next to "willing" on a questionaire is one thing, grabbing a rifle from the stores as bombs fall is another. Not saying we'd not see lots of brave finns if it (hopefully not) ever came to it ... just saying that you can't really judge such things before the shit hits the fan.
Just to note - Chechens are fierce fighters in general, but that is not the guys who went to Ukraine. Last real Chechen war ended 22 years ago, so all those extremely experienced and fierce fighters are long retired. Even when we consider the war 22 years ago, the most feared and fierce fighters were already fighting since 1994, meaning that they were at least 16 years old in 1994. The guys are 44 years old or even older now! Ok some Chechen commanders may be from the times of Chechen wars, but most soldiers are not. Most of them haven't even been born before the Chechen war ended, so unless somebody believes they are "genetically good fighters" they are just not the "feared Chechens" everyone remembers. There is second important part - Chechen insurgency lasted until 2009, those are long time anti-russian fighters and if any of them are present in Ukraine, then they are most likely fighting on Ukrainian side against russians, not for Kadyrov. Overall, Kadyrov is a traitor of Chechnya and most real veteran fighters are fighting against him, or have left Chechnya. By the same token all man who are in Kadyrov control are more like paramilitary "tiktoc" warriors, they are not real military, they are just thugs with automatic weapons who are used to suppress civilians in Chechnya. They can be compared to mexican drug armies - well armed and paid, but not trained to be in the war. They are trained to intimidate civilians, commit crimes, collect money, terrorise the society and political opponents, attend military parades and pose in front of cameras, but they are not real fighting force. And that is what we are seeing in Ukraine. In short - when we say "Chechens", we need to be clear about what we talking about - Chechen war veterans or Kadyrov "toy army".
that is basically what I heard, that the chechens called in by russia are fighters of the russian backed regime; there are chechen war veterans (the wars lasted into the early 2000s and old people who want to fight will still try to), but they understandably did not stay in chechnya under a regime that was put in place by russia, let alone fight for russia. They have been fighting against russia internationally, in syria and now in ukraine. What I heard was that they were actually fighting in the south alongside the Azov battalion, funnily enough (I've heard that Azov has been diluted by regular people over the course of donbass though).
@@barrag3463 yes the "nazis" problem in Azov is way overblown. Whole Azon Battalion is like 1000 men at most, out of 200k regular army and 60k territorial defence, they don't make-up even 1% of Ukraine's army and in Azov itself it is estimated that at most between 20-30% of nationalist core remains (many of 2014 fighters are now in their 50s and long retired or even killed as well), many of whom are actually from russian descent, Chechens, Georgians etc. So yes they are very passionately anti-russian regime/army, but not against russian people.
A lot of Chechen mobsters from Russian cities swept into Kadyrov' cadre. Foxes put in charge of henhouse. The most experience Chechens apart from ones who joined Ukraine's fight are Islamists who've fought in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya etc but they're no friend of Kadyrov or Putin either.
As a Vietnamese, I'd just like to say that: as the invader, you can only fight with your uniformed men, going against a defending army comprised of every human being with a pulse with at least one hand to hold a phone or a Molotov.
Indeed. Vietnamese should know, as they've beaten (or at least forced a withdrawal) both the US and China in the last 50ish years. I've noticed several people talking about one group or another being "fierce," but almost any group is fierce when they are fighting in their homeland. There are historical exceptions, of course, but those are usually after very long wars as aggressors or pushed back (Napoleon, Nazi Germany, etc).
Great point. Hence why the Russians are behaving the way they do. Again Russia is not interested in making deals with anyone in Ukraine and simply punish every Ukrainian which in turn galvanizes every person there to fight against the invaders much harder. Scaling back to claim some sort of small victory is the only thing the moskovites can sell back home. Hence a couple of days ago the a Russian news should photos and videos of the Russian flag waving over Kherson. The west hasn’t even acknowledged that at all since it seems like it’s just another psyop Putin’s state media has conducted to keep the taxpayers on board and to protect Putin’s power. I also heard rumors that Russia is closing access to TH-cam sooner or later to completely cut off news feeds and western propaganda. Russia is losing big time but they won’t stop at all. Ukraine is giving them a run for their money I do however hope that the Ukrainians stay level headed with their goals because at this point I simply don’t see them being able to reclaim all of Ukraine as much as I hope they do. It seems logistically impossible. They hopefully just have to push back for another month because if this “special operation” continues beyond victory day in may I think internal Russian polit bureau is gonna cut off Putin rather sooner than later. They can sell this bullshit only for so long
@@admthrawnuru The genocidal North Vietnamese only held out because they were being propped up by the Communist bloc. Vietnam remains an extremely poor country as a result of the North Vietnamese violating the peace treaty with South Vietnam.
Right now I doubt if Zelensky cares about his people or not. Rather than respecting them he kept using them as propaganda pieces and cannon fodder, first by arming them with weapons to fight the Russians, then blame the Russians for killing civilians to get more support from western countries. And he also don't allow ordinary citizens in big cities, for example Mariupol, to escape the city regardless if they want to fight or flee. Russia is playing this soft here, no mass artillery barrages and all out tank columns sweeping and destroying everything, no disruption on communication service and traffic, and they've basically taken control of a territory that's bigger than what US took during their time in Afghanistan within just 3 weeks and neutralized most of Ukraine's fuel and ammo depots, not to mention Ukrainian tanks and equipments are lost more than what the West are supplying to them. So it is hard to say what will be the war outcome if the Russians suddenly decided to play more aggressively.
Just got to say Perun, it's your insider content during this conflict that is the best about TH-cam. Sharing your knowledge with us from your day job is a rare privilege. And you are doing it in a considered and professional way. Thank you.
Don't need to qualify it, it IS the best content on YT RE the war. Sure, it maybe lacks a micro view re how the war is going, but I think the macro view you get from it informs a lot of what you can get from daily reports. :)
As a Russian and not a military expert I can not comment too much on the content of the previous videos. However I can say with confidence that the depiction of the Russian side of things in this video when it comes to manpower and reserves is extremely accurate. Doubts about the capabilitys of equipment in storage are also quite grounded. Got a few friends who served in such units, and they have similar opinions.
My friend if you can please move out of Russia like many other Russian TH-camrs have. Georgia and Kazakhstan seem popular destinations. I'm worried Russia will soon be like North Korea. Nobody can leave or get in.
If you're young getting out of Russia is a must if you want a future. Even if Russia wins its not exactly going to be a good life for young people in Russia.
Ukrainians ..... have long been persecuted by the Russians, from the very moment the Russians interpreted the 1640s Pereyaslava treaties not as Ukrainians granting Russia military access, but as a form of complete subjugation to the Russian crown. The Soviets didn't just starve their forefathers to death in the Holodomor for profit, they also poisoned the lands around Pripyat in the Chernobyl disaster of 1986. And then, to top all of that, Viktor Yanukovich continued to steal from them - with Russian support. Plus there are hordes of ethnic Russians in Ukraine proper - not to mention migrants from Russia who must've fled to avoid Putin. As a result, it is not surprising as to why the Ukrainians wish to fight rather than surrender.
Your comments on the legal implications of civilians performing military tasks seems very prescient with the recent revelation of atrocities committed in the Russian retreat from Kyiv. I’m sure it will be decades before any trials for war crimes, but I expect your observations will be used in defence. Excellent video! I look forward to your next. Edit. Those farmers recovering tanks, etc. will also be very useful in repairing and scavenging should not be underestimated. Having an ability to fix something at 8pm during harvest season is almost universal for farmers. It won’t be pretty fix, but it will work long enough to get the crop off.
What farmers want someone's rubbish dumped in their field? This military business is bad for people who need food as much as the rich man in his Kastle but will lack any way to pay for it.
It’s unfortunate but I don’t think moral can be claimed when Ukrainian government armed their civilians, asking them to pose for photos, then cry atrocities when civilians and irregulars die in conflict. That’s not going into Ukrainian secret service carrying out illegal arrest and tortures against Russian Ukrainian long before the war. All things considered, the Russians were surprisingly lenient by their standard. After what they did in Chechnya, I expected far worse. In any case, Ukrainian irregulars being conscripted after the ban on men military age from leaving the country won’t have great effect on post war recovery. If I’m Zelensky I would be very careful with using them.
@@lc9245 Russians were not lenient, and the castration+execution video from las week proves it. Also, can you please provide any proof of Ukrainian secret service torturing russian-speakers before war?
One look at what Putler did in Chechnya and Syria would have been enough to convince anyone who knew that there would be no quarter regardless of whether you helped or not. Just being Ukrainian made you culpable. This was going to be a Russian genocide of everyone who was not pro-Russian.
@@lc9245 Is this a joke? Lenient? Take a look at Mariupol, Bucha, Irpen, recently liberated Izium and Lyman, etc. Take a look at villages which do not exist anymore, because all the buildings are outright flattened. What about missile strikes on the Thermal Power Plants, high-raise buildings, shopping malls, a dam, etc.? What about non-stopping artillery and MRLS strikes on Mykolaiv and Kherson? Russia has invaded a country in which most of civilians are fighting back. Does this mean that Russia has to kill and destroy all civilians to win? If your answer is "yes", then we're talking about genocide here. Ukrainian Secret Police? What? Have you ever been in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kharkov and other southern/eastern cities of Ukraine? More than half of these cities' population are russian-speaking. What king of "secret police" are you talking about? The ones from your propaganda TV? And obviously, when it comes to "where are your proves?" part, you won't have any, am I right? And finally, how do like "the ban on men military age from leaving the country" in Russia? Did you receive your "povestka" yet?
I'm from Finland and served as a conscript many years ago. For most of my adult life I've been hoping Finland to turn the army into a voluntary system as to me it has been a waste of resources and a violation of civil liberties. However, this war has shown that the reserve based army has an important role in a modern war when the freedom of your country is under threat.
For smaller nations I totally agree with you. I’m lucky enough to live in a country with a large professional military and a large professional reservist force. I’m from the USA. But when it comes to smaller countries (My state alone has more people then all of Sweden for example) it can be a real benifit to have a civilian population who are able to quickly mobilize within the military and be effective
We here in Scandinavia and Finland are so few that we need every man and quite a few of the women under arms if the shit really hits the fan. Besides, at least here in Norway a lot of people have fond memories, personal growth, tradeable skills and lifelong friends from their year of service.
Interesting. In the U.S. I think we would benefit greatly from required service for a couple of years, or possibly a system where serving for two years gives you the right to vote. So it is voluntary service but only those who have served can vote.
Our local territorial militia is doings gods work (ukrainian here). These units have larger losses than the regular forces due to lack of training & being over zealous. Otherwise, they are wrecking havoc on russian troops and supply lines. I have a couple of friends who enlisted, there are issues with some equipment - especially clothing - but otherwise they are well supplied. These units are actively training with Javelins, NLAWs, and many other weapon systems that we're getting from the west. I know that certain units are being trained by foreign experts (Israel, USA, UK). All of this is making them more dangerous, capable, and increases their survival every day. Some of acquittances from the Azov battalion mentioned that in the Kyiv region these TD forces suffered insane losses in the first 2 weeks. However, this didn't affect them at all from the morale stand point. They never stopped fighting even when 90% of the squad died. The remaining guys would join a new squad and just push forward the next day. It's insane to watch how these people are standing their ground. As someone who doesn't serve, we do exactly what you mention in the video. Supply cash, clothing, equipment, anything we can. Like my family gave away every sleeping bag, thermal clothing, pair of socks, backpacks that we had. Everyone is trying to help the army in some way.
Even here in the USA civilians are going over to help. I’m from PA and a bunch of guys from near where I live went over to fight a week or so ago. I think it was like 4 guys from Buck county PA
Nice that ISRL is allegedly training them after they didn't even want to admit that Russia is a bad actor at first... Especially a country that should know better than to stand with Z-fascism...
I really appreciate your comment. I do think that point has not been brought up as much it should have been. with reservists in Ukraine case the territorial defence always take more casualties at the beginning and are less effective however every day combat experience counts for weeks peacetime training. So the longer the war takes the more efficient this units will get.
In my experience there is no lack of men willing to take up arms or help the war effort. I doing my part fortifying hospitals' windows with sandbags and unloading/sorting/loading the humanitarian supplies that come from the west (thanks btw). There is always more men to do the job, than needed. Organizer requested 10 men to show up to help unload supplies. 20 showed up. The other day he asked for 20 people to show up and there were at least 40. Once he said: "50 should be enough for this", well you get the idea. Friends, friends of friends, just random-ass people from the street who see what you are doing and offer help. It drastically reduces time it takes us to do the job, since everyone is trying to do as much as possible in shortest period of time, because there won't be much work for an individual with so many people around. Of course it only further accelerates the process. Perhaps it can be summarised better by saying that I don't know a young person who didn't contribute to the war effort in one way or another.
Great. I can't really do more than grill the one member of parliament I know, to vote for sending as much weapons as possible. After this shit is over, I'll come to Ukraine, help clean some streets up, and empty my bank account to local businesses.
@@MVHiltunen grilling your MP is a lot, actually, since he/she (partly) makes calls on weaponry. If they hesitate, their voters are the ones who do the convincing. Thanks for support
@@katamarankatamaranovich9986 Just to mention, it seems that we will be joining NATO, and hopefully that distracts Russians to stage some sad showoff exercise next to our border. Also, we (and the swedes) can probably send more stuff after that. There is strong will to help, even among politicians, but we have our own 1300km border with Russia, and there's only 5M of us, so no weapon in our stocks is 'surplus'.
You have a good point. I think a lot of people in modern society have a lot of spare time on their hands. Every day, I "waste" time on mostly meaningless activities such as playing games or watching shows. If my country was attacked, even though I am not a soldier, I would be able to give 40+ hours every week towards the war effort even if i was still working my regular job full time. I can make food, I can transport supplies, I can repair electronics. All useful skills that a civilian can contribute to the nation in war time.
As a retired combat arms NCO, and then as a civilian military logistics analyst, this is the right way to apply history and contemporary analytics to what is happening in Ukraine. This should be part of a Journalism Class on how to understand war.
I love the idea of Yuri and his mates from the pub having a pint and taking a few shots at tanks. Either way, I served in the reserves in the US for 8 years. In the US, reservists train side by side with regular troops for the first part of training, and are almost a 1 for 1 when needed. It helped the US during the last 20 years.
I have to say, I am ****REALLY**** impressed by this series. I am a gamer but I don't play the games you cover. I'd never taken any time to watch your gaming videos, but I'm a bit in awe of how well-read and thoughtful this series on the capabilities of the Ukraine is. I watch a large (and probably a bit unhealthy) amount of analysis of the conflict, and your content is better than any mainstream media by leaps and bounds. And you do it so very, very well. Well done, sir. Slava Ukraine.
We must always remember that any weapon in their hands is held by people. There are many videos on my channel about how the Russians and the DPR militia are fighting. All videos are in English or with English subtitles - you will know exactly what is happening there!
@@manofwar6233 , you have been exposed, shameless orc. I speak ru and was pro-ru until the invasion. Now, as an eastern European, I would gladly eradicate orcs in a glassed Mordor, no matter the price, exactly because of what you are doing.
I love the comment about the legality of carrying ATGMs in a private car. I have checked with my insurance company and it's not a problem but they may exceed the claim amount for individual items if damaged..! Also takes road rage to a whole new level. Seriously though, I have loved this series and give you my thanks for your hard work.
Right, my insurance won’t even let me drive for Uber… But seriously, I’d think that marking the vehicles would be the most important element. I’ve seen the Russian militia putting a big “Z” on their civilian vehicles being pressed into military use. To not do so would put legitimate civilians at greater risk.
I'm pretty sure it makes you a non-uniformed combatant if you do it in Ukraine, aka a partisan. That means that if captured, you are not entitled to the PoW treatment but the partisan one which is traditionally a summary execution. Just so you are aware.
Absolutely wild seeing my favorite Dominions channel pivot to in-depth professional level analysis of modern warfare. From Russia to Ermor, Perun on top of it
When I was in the Canadian army we were taught to destroy, soft targets like fuel tankers supply trucks etc. There is nothing worse then being cold wet (or hot) and carrying 60 lbs or more of kit hungry tired and never knowing where your enemy is or how long the fuel in your APC or truck will last. In built up areas your eyes are in the 360 degree mode looking for the guy that launched a bullet at you who could be anywhere which is very very tiring and scary.
Harassing fire is something any man can go with any firing gun. Old hunting rifle, single shot target rifle, whatever. That constant pinging of rounds when you're trying to sleep, eat, take a shit, it's what the Afghan guys learnt with their wars. No peace means constant low effort enemy
@@JoeWalker98 i was thinking that about the drones, honestly! We've seen a ton of quadcopters being modified to drop shit on Russian positions. Honestly, even if those munitions don't hurt or kill anyone, just the toll it takes on Russian morale and readiness is well worth the effort and cost.
@@angryscotsman93 : Which is why the Russians have adopted America's tactics from Korea and Vietnam - shell the shit out of anything that moves. Shoot first, ask questions later. In truth it takes more than just military manoeuvres to fight a war, and more than just hard power to maintain an empire.
@@meilinchan7314 little late but I would honestly say that if that is what America did in those wars, then they took that from the Russians lol. Because Russia has been around quite a bit longer with a lot more wars, and there backup plan always seems to be; shell the shit out of everything with artillery until things stop moving.
00:00 Introduction 00:33 Ukraine - the 'outnumbered' underdog 01:08 But wars aren't fought by only active-duty armies 02:01 What am I going to cover? 02:38 Key thesis 04:41 What this presentation isn't 05:37 What is with these reserve numbers? 07:47 Historical mobilisations: rapid and overwhelming 10:13 USSR mobilisation system 13:03 What about Russia? 15:54 Paramilitary forces 18:06 Chechens 20:05 Syrians 21:05 Mercenaries 22:12 Local proxies 23:42 What ties this all together? 26:02 Ukrainian experience - National Mobilisation 27:06 Ukrainian experience - UTDF and Regular Reserve 30:01 TDF and Regular Reserve (cont.) 31:23 But they're not supermen 32:58 Ukrainian experience - Militia and Irregulars 35:22 Ukrainian experience - Volunteers and Quasi Militia 36:44 Tractors - More than a meme 38:24 Defacto support services 39:19 Intelligence gathering and information warfare 40:38 Complex contemporary picture of whole-of-society resistance 42:32 Ukraine hasn't gotten it all right 44:54 Lessons we can take? 47:55 Long term decline in reserve forces 50:11 Designing a Reserve Force 50:44 Right sizing the force 52:18 Capability - What do you need them to do? 54:03 Organisation 55:29 Equipment 56:31 My takeaways 1:02:34 Outro
The reservist power should also affect weapons design. Much of the advantage of the ATGMs like the NLAW is the ease of use. Previous generations of anti-tank weapon required a highly trained soldier to use effectively, careful aim and getting in the right range etc.. But mass-producible "smart" infantry ATGM, MANPADS and simple drones for scouting, that are quick to train soldiers on can make basically trained soldiers able to hold out against air and armor attacks effectively. Particularly "gamifying " the weapons so young soldiers with 5 years of video games experience can quickly understand the controls and targeting systems.
Those are very short range and risky to use, main battle tank is very scary machine, to get up and shoot tank you must have steel balls, person with manpad is very easy target for tank and infantry
@@dmitryhetman1509 However a truck often isn't nearly as scary, and if you take out enough trucks the tanks and infantry are starved of supplies. A tank out of fuel and left sitting in a ditch is much less intimidating and can be taken out quite easily. Just a terminology tick, MANPADs are just for Aerial Defense, the AD portion of the acronym, and they can be great to take out helicopters or low flying attack aircraft, and since they're so damned portable you can pop up with them just about anywhere such a vehicle will be operating. Same with some of these portable anti tank systems, you can even fire some of them from within buildings, meaning all you need is line of sight from any direction, and cities are literally full of angles and hidey holes that can prove deadly for an attacker.
@@dmitryhetman1509 Thats not true at all. A NLAW can be effective at 800m and the old gen Javelin Ukraine has at 2.5km. Current gen javelins the US has have a 4km range. You also have all the SACLOS ATGM systems that have ranges between 2-5.5km. Sure there are also a lot of unguided AT systems in Ukraine with lower effective ranges like RPG-7 300m, AT-4 300m, M72 LAW 200m, Panzerfaust 3 600m and in comparison an MBT 125mm gun has an effective range of 4km, and a BMPs 30mm autocannon has a range of 2km. But the thing is the human eye cannot see small targets at these ranges very well. If someones hiding in a bush 200m away with an M72 watching you through the leaves you aren't going to necessarily notice them when you're in a convoy. At longer ranges you need magnification optics to engage effectively and in this case the party striking first has a huge advantage. By the time you've been hit by a salvo of rockets, lost three of your vehicles and a the crews of three more are bailing out so they don't get smoked by the follow up volley, you then have to use your optics to zoom in to a distance to scan the terrain to try and find the enemy in a limited field of view so that you can actually return fire. If you don't have thermals or night vision at night thats not easy and anyway the ambusher can decide if they want to stay for a second volley anyway depending on the situation. It would be hard enough to try and find these light infantry from hundreds of metres away, let alone if they're already melting away into the forests, villages, hills or whatever
When parents said we was wasting our lives on games, they better look how Ukraine has fared. That's fight simulator type training in types of games like Battefield, so when the kids enlisted it probably was not too alien using some of the equipment, so they were ready to go quicker. Equally its absolutely horrifying we been conditioned to able to use said equipment easily, via games. :0
In regards to your statements on mobilizing police, the Iraqis actually did this during the ISIS invasion back in 2014 and as a general rule performed better in defensive operations than many army units. In offensive however, they were utterly useless and took extremely high losses.
this sorta makes sense. in defense theyre protecting their home and neighbors. but attack requires alot more training and discipline that cops dont have. im just guessing here but i bet the cops were super timid when attacking and probably threw off any synchronicity with active units.
@@robertrussell5856 I've seen some action scenes from the movie they make a shit ton of mistakes like setting off booby traps, friendly fire, grenades they threw bouncing off a wall and back at them. So your assessment of them being crap in offensive roles makes sense.
@@robertrussell5856 saw it two days ago. I really liked it, it's not the best film of all time but it had an cohesive story, the action scenes aren't overedited so you actually get an idea what they are shoting at/getting shot from.
Great video as always! Regards from a reservist in Finland knowing exactly what his wartime mission is. 1 year of military training +25 years of regular reserv refresh breeds confidence! 💥💪
What do you mean by political scientist, where do you work and what do you do? Personal question I know but I am currently a poli sci student considering all options.
@@chrishahn1273 sorry I'm only a political scientist by education. Im a dual major history and poli sci, But I work in IT and try to keep up academically. I just think his take on this is top notch.
From 1 political scientist to another..... I gave Russia 2 weeks to take Kyiv, and 2 months to neutralise the entire nation. If they could not do this, the chances of Ukrainian survive - I dare NOT say victory or success - will drastically increase. For Ukraine, all I can say is that it was/is necessary to protect the Lviv-Kyiv corridor at all costs. They can afford to lose any and all other parts of the nation but not any city between these two. Fast forward a quarter of a year, and I have been proven right.
As an active S2 I really appreciate the meticulous work done with this presentation. It’s spot on. The observation NATO was taken by surprise, both regarding Ukrainian mobilization and fighting will, as well as Russian performance, is completely correct.
almost makes me think nato wanted russia to attack ukraine, so they could bleed russia dead with sanctions and their untested toys while not spilling a single nato blood drop :P
I was going to write an angry rebuttal over the whole conscription thing but then you brought up Israel, South-Korea and Finland and I was mollified. Aye, the conscription vs regular army argument is not one-sided or straightforward and you actually seem to have a good grasp on its nuances. Well done!
There is also an advantage to local people in a reservist force defending their local area and that is local knowledge. Especially things like running checkpoints and scouting and ambush operations. They know the back roads, local farms in the countryside and the alleyways and tunnels in cities. They know who to trust in the local community, and can get feed information easier from them. Even a professionalized military force defending a town is probably mostly made up of soldiers from elsewhere in the country and lack this hyper-local knowledge and advantage.
@@anon2427 : But said steppe is also criscrossed by many rivers and creeks. Russia's inability to punch through (and to a certain extent, Ukraine's inability to hold them back) is very much explained by this fact. It's not so much about racing across the Steppes as it was back in 1941 (in no small part because Stalin thought the reports of Nazi attacks were #fakenews )as it is now about seizing and conquering towns who control strategic bridges and/or crossings (which again, owe their existence to the same).
A possible contemporary example of a nation in arms - arms that include ATGWs, MANPADS, drones, AK-47s, etc. -Great analyses. I suspect Lithuania, Finland, Poland, and on the other side of the planet, Taiwan, will all be doing some similar analysis on the Russian invasion and Ukraine response. Please do more of these kinds of video clip pieces.
Just heard a phone call from a Russian Soldier and his wife that his time has been extended automatically even though he was at the end of his service. He told her he had put in to leave the army but he found out from his commander that he did not have a choice in the matter. He did not sound happy.
Perun: I feel as if I was sitting at the right hand of General Mark Miley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff while watching these videos. Please continue. Your distillation of such a wide range of topics is marvelous. Thank you for spending the time to present such an important topic. However, your presentation begs the question: given all the points you make, and assuming that Putin a) refuses to quit, and b) refuses to make the adjustments you recommend, when does he start 'escalate to descalate', e.g. tactical nukes?
If Russia not "at war," it is a giant leap to say that tactical nukes are needed; Russian policy is that nukes are only used when the existence of Russia itself is in question. With no foreign troops in Russia and no inbound ICBMs, what is the justification?
It's very emotional thinking about the society-wide effort of Ukraine to resist the invasion. I hope we'd hold up half as well if the situation were different.
Not sure where you live, but across central Europe the mobilization of society to help refugees has been huge...If you are US based, well it's true a former POTUS with a large following is begging putin for political support, so not sure how that type of invasion would go down...but I have faith in real American patriots and the US military :)
@@JonZiegler6 That large following joins the military at a high percentage. Do you think we wouldn`t fight if we were invaded? Two million illegals invade our borders every year and it sounds like you don`t have a problem with that.
I dont think youd have to be a patriot to want to fight back against, I dont know, a surprise Chinese attack, blowing up your house and killing your friends.
This guy knows his stuff. When first clicked the first of his war videos, within a couple minutes I looked at his channel and saw he was a gamer channel mainly. I would say within 10 minutes I was really amazed and I must admit slightly shock at his level of knowledge but his own analysis(thoughts) are very well done.
I hope you don’t stop giving these talks on the Ukrainian war because, what you have to say gives us hope. There is so much rubbish on the internet and it is a relief to hear from someone who knows what he is talking about. We value the real facts. Thank you.
One of the few channels that I can watch on 1x speed for an hour with full attention and wanting more. Many countries will remain safe if they follow this excellent overview of lessons learned. Excellent presentation as always.
One of the few channels covering the conflict without drawing baseless conclusions and spewing propaganda from one of the sides. I don't know how you manage to keep my attention with a powerpoint presentation more than channels with flashy animations, infographics and such but pease keep making these, not only on this but other countries, other conflicts past or present etc.
Because it is facts, good conclussions based on strict assumptions and with explanations of limmitations. We have just forgot how good it is to be well informed on a topic. His work is the oppositre if quick TV news or silly memes (allthough he understand memes and do use them to underscore a point and that)
Would love to see more of these videos, not necessarily on the current war if you feel its been exhausted. Rare to find information on the military-industrial side of conflict that doesn't immediately put you to sleep. Great job!
The quality of your presentations are hands down the best context and assessment of the Ukraine Russia War. Please keep doing what you're doing, and go after the extreme propaganda on both sides to help expose the reality of the situation.
massively appreciate this presentation series you're doing, as others have said this is really the best of youtube, volunteering your expertise to educate and inform in a way that traditional media struggles with
I would also like to say how much I appreciate how he doesn't put in distracting and unnecessary generic background music. I firmly believe too many channels especially the educational/discussion channels put in unnecessary background music when people actually want to get information/hear him talk and not hear generic music.
One minor historical point. Germany between WWI and WWII did have a small army, but they trained everyone to fill the rank/role above the one they were in and rotated people through the military because of the size limitations forced on them by the Versailles Treaty. So, they had a large pool of trained soldiers and a highly competent core. So, when they did expand their army in 1935 they had the trained personnel to handle it including the all-important NCOs.
-- Interesting. Roughly speaking, in the military (and in the civilian world) your boss supervises 4 or 5 people at your level plus whatever personal staff he might have. A "leader" might spend 10% of his time "upgrading" each of his subordinates and maybe 10% of his time getting "upgraded" by his boss and the remaining 10% just doing his "real" job in the normal manner.
@@MC-pt8kv -- Well, Germany had the Hitler Youth which could provide "fill in" from below. There are other tricks: you have have officers and NCO "cycle through" into civilian life and let others take their place for a bit. German did a lot of get back into the air force business with a combination of glider clubs and joint development deals with other cooperative nations (believe it or not, one such nation was the Soviet Union.)
The US sort of did the same prior to WWII- the Army was built on a model of expanding quickly around the core small regular force at the start of a war using a draft and/or volunteer state units. Same deal in 1812, Civil War, Spanish-American War, etc. You could go from corporal to sergeant major in two years between 1939 and 1941.
While I totally see where you are coming from in terms of "legalities of civilian support services" ... russia isn't rubbeling mariupol because people held a smartphone out the window. Massive civilian casualties and terror are a fundamental part of modern russian strategy, regardless of the actions those civilians take. "As long as they don't force their military and political leadership to surrender to russian demands: Kill more" is a simplified but I think correct way to put it. I don't think those civilians are putting themselves at any greater risk than they already (sadly) are. Also more fundamentally and as a reason for the above, russia has no regard for international law anyway, the russian state (not speaking about pjotr the average russian here) operate purely on a might makes right system. Ethics play no part. If they thought that summarily executing every captured ukrainian regular was a beneficial move, they would be doing that, geneva be damned.
Very true, especially from a moral standpoint. That being said, from a legal POV, if civilians do perform military duties in civilian vehicles and buildings, those could be considered legit targets...but as you said, putin and his army don't care either way, and I hope the civilized world not only keeps the sanctions until he is gone, but begin to pressure countries like India who want to be on the wrong side of history...
@@Horizontalvertigo for sure, but the law works differently. So when war crimes charges are made, don't be suprised and disheartened if they are less than you expected...
Well done. Your objectives remained at the surface level. Your narratve, while delivered at breakneck pace, produced room for the listener to digest much of your delivery. Most salient take is materials for communications with others..,I am now encouraged to pursue and apply the paradigm of citizen militia, or, whatever.
The obvious takeaway from this, is that cheap easy to use ATGM systems make reservists and irregluars truly effective and worth having at least on the defense.
please keep up long form content (30 mins and longer). It’s so hard to find TH-cam videos that aren’t just 5-10 min summaries….I want deep dives with all the details. You fill this niche very well please keep it up
Agreed. A lot of people complain about the superficiality of the 5 minute report on TV or TH-cam, but how many of these complainers are willing to sit down and watch an hour long presentation like we have here? (I actually have watched it twice, and skipped back at certain points to better understand what Perun was trying to say. Like you (probably), I took in the information presented in this video as if my understanding mattered. People complain about the superficiality of news (to the point of calling it fake news) but most aren’t willing to put in the work of reading or watching more in depth reporting and analysis.
This was GREAT! You are the best analyst I've heard yet! No wonder Beau of the 5th Column recommended your channel. Sorry I never paid attention to your gaming videos. 1. Never recommended by YT. 2. I am a casual gamer to begin with. I work in IT on commercial systems. 3. I am American, I was born during the early days of the Cold War. I grew up watching the Soviet Treat in East Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. I even joined my countries Civil Air Patrol at 12 years old because I could get my pilot's license for free when I turned 16 along with my drivers license.. It was a "volunteer" force of course. But we trained with M16's and did winter maneuvers with the Air Force Reserves as part of our training. learning to fly and the math required was a challenge, I learned respect for my weapon early. As a young black man I felt more secure and confident at protecting myself and family from enemies domestic (KKK) and foreign (RU). I ended up working as a contractor in the Nuclear Navy. We had a purpose back then, like Ukraine has today. I am not worried about RU launching a nuke. M.A.D is for REAL. NATO would have no choice but to take RU out. Deaths on both sides for real. But, there would be no more RU. And the rest of the surviving world will rebuild. China will also lose with all the fallout coming from RU. RU losing a conventional war, and going bankrupt, will be embarrassing, but it beats being dead.
Your channel is the best analysis I've seen on TH-cam when it comes to this war and I watch at least two hours a day of content about this war since it started. Just keep it up!
Thank you for making these videos! They're on par with the best university lectures I ever attended and I mean that in the best way possible. In my 4 years of college I have experienced the entire spectrum of college lectures, from the unbearably boring to the captivating and incredibly interesting. These videos fall firmly in the latter and teach me a lot and make me want to learn more, which is everything that a university education is supposed to do. The vibe I get from these videos is exactly the same as the one I got from my favorite college professor and I love it. If you choose to do so, I hope you lean into this and make a career on youtube because you are incredibly talented at explaining complicated and nuanced topics like this. In 25 minute segments with a professional mic and simple graphics, I could easily see you hit 400k subscribers within a year and to be able to be deservedly compensated for your talent. And these hour long videos would make an amazing podcast as well. Best of luck in whatever you decide to do!
I echo many of the sentiments, of the commenters, this is honestly the best coverage of the Ukraine conflict I have seen. Its Analysis, It doesn't have dumb music, or use of the same stock videos over and over. I know you don't technically "cover" it in a news sense, but still. This is honestly the best source of information on the conflict.
"to be victorious in battle you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I think he knows a little more about fighting than you do pal because he invented it! And then he perfected it so that no man could best him in the ring of honor! And then he used all of his fight money to buy two of every animal, and he herded them all onto a boat! and then he beat the crap out of each and every one of them! And that is why, to this day, if a bunch of animals are in one place it is called a Tzu! Unless it's a Farm!
Perun is the very best military analyst I have listened to in ages. Brilliant, articulate, incisive and totally unbiased delivery 👏. I am hooked👍👍. Well done...
It has been interesting for me to see the "truth is the first casualty in war" paradigm die, or at least become very qualified. Thankyou once again, Perun, for a thoroughly rational, scholarly and professional analysis.
Got to say I watch everything there is on the conflict, all day every day and am a very keen military historian. For me these presentations are without doubt the finest, most informative, thought through and insightful things out there. Not being a gamer I only came across these videos through searching for quality material on the net but every one of your videos on this subject blows me away. Well done and thank you
Good Job Perun, you are doing really great in this Role. I enjoy your toughts/analysis about this toroughly. I know this is not exactely your comfort Zone, but it is going amazingly.
As soon as this video hit my notifications, I dropped what I was doing to watch. Not disappointed, as usual. Very clear, concise, entertaining and informative. You have a gift for this!
Ich stimme ihnen da absolut zu und mittlerweile gebe ich diese Seite in meinen Kommentaren des Öfteren als Link an , weil man im deutschsprachigen Raum einfach keine rationale Vorstellung von "Russland" hat, da immer dieses geopolitische Blabla vom "der Russe" vorherrscht. Ich wollte sie dazu animieren, die Videos ebenfalls zu verlinken, damit mit die Debatte im deutschsprachigen Netz ein bißchen an Niveau gewinnt. Danke!
I had great uncles that lived in Germany in the 1930s using their own money to get involved in the glider hobby, “ be a greater pilot it’ll be fun they said” so at the beginning of WWII they found themselves as glider pilots for the German army which after landing they had to get out of the glider and fight as an infantry soldier. They were not happy, especially after paying themselves to learn how to be a glider pilot!
Thanks for putting this presentation together. Your material is well organized, as truthful as verifiable contemporary information allows, and I believe, fair
@@MarcosElMalo2 He is talking about how the Boers and Turks were able to defeat larger stronger British forces through good small scale light infantry tactics on the defensive.
one note: maintaining civilian communication infrastructure under your control has been huge for the irregular advantage both direct and infowar side of the conflict.
Much of what you saw in the early days of the war was more a problem of unfinished territorial defence system as we where caught up during implementation. As for distribution of weapons in Kyiv to basically anyone who was willing to come up and take a gun... It was caused by an anticipation of an immediate russian assault its not how this system was intended to work and more of panic reaction. For example in Kherson TDF command just didn't have time to form those units... In cities which were not under attack in the first days of the war territorial defence brigades (yes its not some sort of ragtag formations, TD battalions intended to be consolidated into light infantry brigades formed on a regional basis, one brigade per region) were formed in a much more professional manner. This system is essentially created from the experience of 2014-2015, when civilians were self-organising into militias to defend the state.
I think it was a totally reasonable decision to get arms out quickly. With the general speed of modern armor and airborne operations, it was at least reasonable that there would be major combat in Kyiv within 48h or so.
I will say your analysis is so thorough that I have to remember to wait until I finish watching to reply, but at the same time I have to take notes for things I think you miss, but you just cover later in the presentation. Excellent video. I spent the last week watching your video series on Phoenix Point. Not sure what difficulty you play it on, but your thoroughness in that style game really speaks to a cautious but thorough approach you take in putting these videos together. Your final point about the robustness of an industrialized nation to respond really belies the point that for a large nation to meet the needs of millions of people it needs to be organized and have systems to respond to everything. In the US its not necessarily the Federal politicians that get things done, it's the department workers in the bureaucracy and local city governments that manage the keep the garbage running for millions of residents. It's logistics all the way down in government and in business. Notable America businesses like McDonald's and Amazon and Walmart aren't just about selling goods, but the robust logistics to get the goods to the customer in a timely and cost efficient manner. Internal logistics is comparatively easy compared to projecting logistics into hostile territory. Logistics is what made the US and the USSR so effective in WW2. Once the factories were turned into making weapons the two fielded thousands of tanks and millions of rifles, and probably billion of bullets. But Russia is facing the same issue the US faced in the Afghanistan and Iraq: they haven't approached it as a fully legalized War. The US has not gone to full War since WW2, and it would be terrifying to see it do so today. Ironically I hoped early in the pandemic to see the US even slightly open up its production capacity for medical supplies but the government was too much of a pansy to really undertake the national emergency the way it should have. Look forward to any future videos whether it's about the conflicted War or Phoenix point.
Thanks for doing this video! I was one of the few who voted for it. I was eager to hear analysis of this topic because I write fiction, and my science-fiction writing is centered on a nation that uses irregular troops as its first defense against invasion. In the worldbuilding I've done, they train citizens in combat as part of basic education. This video (and really your whole series on the Ukraine War) has given me a much better idea of what that training would include in order for that strategy to be effective.
Thank you so much for doing these videos. I've been so hungry for nuanced, well researched content about this conflict. Creators like you are really helping me wrap my brain around this historically significant event we're witnessing.
You're providing a great set of analytics to consider for us humble viewers and I've enjoyed these immensely. Also great to hear an Aussie on youtube, keep up the good work mate
Great video. I am learning a lot from your channel!
Love you guys videos.
Nice to see you here 😀
Can you guys see any similarities in history on this topic?
K&G give this man a job!
Wow, even K&G thinks this is good info. High praise indeed.
“Free assault rifles for everyone” made sense when Ukraine (and Russia, and everyone else) expected Russian air superiority immediately, Kyiv to fall in days, and the country to be fighting an insurgency almost immediately
In my opinion, the Ukrainians were lucky, very lucky, that they did not have a President who tried to run to the States when trouble came knocking. That was the one best part of this war for them.
The Russian assault on Kyiv all seems to be a waste, until you realise what Putin's plan probably was - he was banking on Zelensky doing the same thing as Viktor Yanukovich, that he was just another oligarch with money who'd flee Ukraine to save his skin. And when Zelensky flees, Russian special forces would be out and about, ready to capture or kill him. There's no need for that much expertise, except for a few specialist units.
Here's the thing.
Ukrainian intelligence must've been doing a yeoman's service, because Volodymyr Zelensky was wise enough not to run away. He probably knew that once Russian troops filtered in, there would be nowhere for him to run or hide and IMHO, that has made all the difference. Had he simply run away, it would've made "disarmament" and occupation far easier for Russia.
@@meilinchan7314 Yeah, the loss of morale from Zelensky fleeing [or worse, being captured] would have been significant.
Him standing and fighting [so to speak] is good for the morale of your army. Knowing their leadership isn't cutting and running to save themselves will certainly stiffen morale.
AK47s FOR EVERYONE! *mob cheering noises*
@@paulsd9255 me in america: i can’t think of any other solution other than more guns /s
@@meilinchan7314 Interesting point. It's easy to forget in hindsight that Zelenskyi fleeing the country and the Russians taking Kyiv very quickly without much resistance wouldn't have been that surprising. It's actually a monument for how little even the experts know about true state of things. A year ago, an overwhelming majority of experts were pretty convinced that a) Russia is bluffing and they won't invade and b) Ukraine would fall in weeks were they to invade. Well, look how that turned out.
For some reason these "PowerPoint" style videos are so much more interesting and attention grabbing than any professional presentation I've ever had to sit through. Thanks for these vids
Well Made PowerPoint plus a Presented who won't bleed your ears
I even prefer it to seeing the guy's face, focus on the content, not the creator :)
It's exactly like a great university lecture and I mean that in the best way possible. In my 4 years of college I have experienced the entire spectrum of college lectures, from the unbearably boring to the captivating and incredibly interesting. These videos fall firmly in the latter and make me want to learn more, which is everything that a university education is supposed to be. The vibe and the feeling I get from these videos is exactly the same as the one I got from my favorite college professor and I love it.
Reminds me of my history class. We had a great history teacher
Wait omg your so right. Mabe PowerPoint nostalgia. But really less clutter and very professional!
I'm from Russia, and to my knowledge all said in this video regarding Russia is factually correct. Great analysis. No to the war.
Stay safe, my dude!
Fuck yeah man
Stay safe man, must be terrible to live in a country thats become a total dictatorship.
I am glad to hear not all Russians are in favour of this killing. I really have no way to gauge how popular this "military operation" is in Russia.
@@ThaFunkster100 I'm pretty sure that a lot of Russians are in favor of this military operation, but if you took away the propaganda & state news monopoly and gave them facts, the question is if it would stay that way.
Just to give you some context: here in Ukraine, people are giving bribes TO BE on the frontline. People ranked as colonels agree to command just one company just to be in the fight
That's not a great situation. These aren't necessarily the best frontline squad level leaders.
@@crhu319 But it speaks a lot to their willingness to fight.
@@crhu319 A company is not a squad. And most if not all Colonels will have commanded a regiment at sometime during their carrier up.
How are the Russian fighters? Are they tough on the frontline?
We have georgian ex defense minister with the rifle on frontline, not just some colonels.
I can tell you that the fact of social mobilization was not a surprise to us Ukrainians at all. The effectiveness was not a surprise either because we just had no bar for how effective it would or should be. People knew that we needed to support the military any way we could and that is pretty much it. It happened in 2014 so everyone knew it would have to happen again in 2022. Honestly I think the West has had it's expectations poisoned by Afganistan that fell in a week. Even if Russians were as capable as was expected saying a city of 4 million people will fall in 2 days is just not realistic.
There have been some other downsides to massive use of ordinary people other than the ones you have mentioned. In the first day of the war people started finding "marks" all over Kyiv and other places left by collaborators and Russian spies and everyone went haywire going around looking for them and reporting them. Same went for reporting suspicious people on the streets. In the end the government offcial had to come out and tell people that modern weapon systems do not use marks on the ground to coordinate fire. In the end all that spy mania left police in a sea of reports of spies and marks and everything you could think of which lowered the actual capabilities of police and military to catch spies and collaborators. In the end spies were caught when authorities implemented a ban to leave the house for people for like 36 hours straight and then some other general restrictions to walk around the city in the evening/night.
Second issue were the omnipresent checkpoints in the western Ukraine that were meant to control traffic and seach for suspicious vehicles and led to major delays in delivery of western supplies because trucks had to stop every five fucking minutes at checkpoints. In the end officials had to once again come out and tell people not to build a checkpoint at every corner and to disassemble many already existing ones.
There were many other smaller examples but the common thing among them is that when people are supercharged to help and there is nothing to do they start doing things they are not capable of achieving and end up being a nuisance.
Also a word about mobilization - it is an expensive tool to pull out people from their jobs and it is very costly so it was an economic decision mostly. It is not the first time Zelensky chose economy over security such as with his decision to invest into infrastructure insted of the military so it is not uncharacteristic of him.
I think no Ukrainians around the planet were surprised by this. My 16 yo told me he wished were 18 so he didn’t have school and could go fight for Ukraine. All he knows of Ukraine are the family stories and history passed down from my grandparents, and this Russian threat to our tough little tribe calls us all so strongly. 💪 Be well & be safe! 🙏
Be well, be safe 🙏Slava Ukranie!!!
I am just an old Marine, but I never doubted Ukraine's ability to defend itself. It was clearly the wrong time of year to mount an invasion. You are using your strengths in small group tactics very well. Slava Ukraine!
This is a good-ass post 👍
I observed that over zealous impetus and it had me worried, as the fear of spies and saboteurs mixed with a citizen's militia can lead to horrendous accidents. I feel relieved things seem to have worked out so far. Slava Ukrajini
Here in Finland next to Russia our active duty army is merely 21.000 men. However wartime strength is 280.000 men and altogether we have a reserve force of 900.000 men. Finland has a conscript system, which means that most men serve in the army at the age of 18 or so and serve for 6-12 months depending on their chosen field. We have this system as it would be too costly to maintain a large professional army.
This has an added benefit of high willingness to defend the country among the Finns. Most Finns are ready to defend the country if we are dragged into a war. Willingness to fight for the country is the highest in Europe 74%. Third on this list is actually Ukraine with 62%. However have to admit that the Ukrainian willingness and courage makes me think Ukraine is number one ;)
on the other hand, if it really is 62% in Uk, I'm terrified to see what a defense might look like in Poland, Sweden, or of course, Finland.
Actually pre-war polls in Ukraine showed "willingness to fight" was around 60% which is typical for most democratic nations. Things always change when it's actually for real though and it's not always an accurate measure of just how hard the citizens are willing to fight.
The meme that “Finns taught Russians to fear the Winter” exists for a reason. A little exaggerated, but Finland is a damn scrappy nation.
Putting a checkmark next to "willing" on a questionaire is one thing, grabbing a rifle from the stores as bombs fall is another.
Not saying we'd not see lots of brave finns if it (hopefully not) ever came to it ... just saying that you can't really judge such things before the shit hits the fan.
Only 21 men?
Just to note - Chechens are fierce fighters in general, but that is not the guys who went to Ukraine. Last real Chechen war ended 22 years ago, so all those extremely experienced and fierce fighters are long retired. Even when we consider the war 22 years ago, the most feared and fierce fighters were already fighting since 1994, meaning that they were at least 16 years old in 1994. The guys are 44 years old or even older now! Ok some Chechen commanders may be from the times of Chechen wars, but most soldiers are not. Most of them haven't even been born before the Chechen war ended, so unless somebody believes they are "genetically good fighters" they are just not the "feared Chechens" everyone remembers.
There is second important part - Chechen insurgency lasted until 2009, those are long time anti-russian fighters and if any of them are present in Ukraine, then they are most likely fighting on Ukrainian side against russians, not for Kadyrov. Overall, Kadyrov is a traitor of Chechnya and most real veteran fighters are fighting against him, or have left Chechnya. By the same token all man who are in Kadyrov control are more like paramilitary "tiktoc" warriors, they are not real military, they are just thugs with automatic weapons who are used to suppress civilians in Chechnya. They can be compared to mexican drug armies - well armed and paid, but not trained to be in the war. They are trained to intimidate civilians, commit crimes, collect money, terrorise the society and political opponents, attend military parades and pose in front of cameras, but they are not real fighting force. And that is what we are seeing in Ukraine.
In short - when we say "Chechens", we need to be clear about what we talking about - Chechen war veterans or Kadyrov "toy army".
👍ℹ️
that is basically what I heard, that the chechens called in by russia are fighters of the russian backed regime; there are chechen war veterans (the wars lasted into the early 2000s and old people who want to fight will still try to), but they understandably did not stay in chechnya under a regime that was put in place by russia, let alone fight for russia.
They have been fighting against russia internationally, in syria and now in ukraine. What I heard was that they were actually fighting in the south alongside the Azov battalion, funnily enough (I've heard that Azov has been diluted by regular people over the course of donbass though).
@@barrag3463 yes the "nazis" problem in Azov is way overblown. Whole Azon Battalion is like 1000 men at most, out of 200k regular army and 60k territorial defence, they don't make-up even 1% of Ukraine's army and in Azov itself it is estimated that at most between 20-30% of nationalist core remains (many of 2014 fighters are now in their 50s and long retired or even killed as well), many of whom are actually from russian descent, Chechens, Georgians etc. So yes they are very passionately anti-russian regime/army, but not against russian people.
There are Chechens fighting on the Ukrainian side who are anti-Kadyrov and anti-Russia. Some of them include the veterans of the Chechen Wars.
A lot of Chechen mobsters from Russian cities swept into Kadyrov' cadre. Foxes put in charge of henhouse. The most experience Chechens apart from ones who joined Ukraine's fight are Islamists who've fought in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya etc but they're no friend of Kadyrov or Putin either.
You're like the college professor we all wish we had. Straight to the point, informative, insightful, and funny when it calls for it.
💙🙏🏻💛💫💫💫
As a Vietnamese, I'd just like to say that: as the invader, you can only fight with your uniformed men, going against a defending army comprised of every human being with a pulse with at least one hand to hold a phone or a Molotov.
Indeed. Vietnamese should know, as they've beaten (or at least forced a withdrawal) both the US and China in the last 50ish years. I've noticed several people talking about one group or another being "fierce," but almost any group is fierce when they are fighting in their homeland. There are historical exceptions, of course, but those are usually after very long wars as aggressors or pushed back (Napoleon, Nazi Germany, etc).
Great point. Hence why the Russians are behaving the way they do. Again Russia is not interested in making deals with anyone in Ukraine and simply punish every Ukrainian which in turn galvanizes every person there to fight against the invaders much harder. Scaling back to claim some sort of small victory is the only thing the moskovites can sell back home. Hence a couple of days ago the a Russian news should photos and videos of the Russian flag waving over Kherson. The west hasn’t even acknowledged that at all since it seems like it’s just another psyop Putin’s state media has conducted to keep the taxpayers on board and to protect Putin’s power. I also heard rumors that Russia is closing access to TH-cam sooner or later to completely cut off news feeds and western propaganda. Russia is losing big time but they won’t stop at all. Ukraine is giving them a run for their money I do however hope that the Ukrainians stay level headed with their goals because at this point I simply don’t see them being able to reclaim all of Ukraine as much as I hope they do. It seems logistically impossible. They hopefully just have to push back for another month because if this “special operation” continues beyond victory day in may I think internal Russian polit bureau is gonna cut off Putin rather sooner than later. They can sell this bullshit only for so long
@@admthrawnuru The genocidal North Vietnamese only held out because they were being propped up by the Communist bloc. Vietnam remains an extremely poor country as a result of the North Vietnamese violating the peace treaty with South Vietnam.
Right now I doubt if Zelensky cares about his people or not. Rather than respecting them he kept using them as propaganda pieces and cannon fodder, first by arming them with weapons to fight the Russians, then blame the Russians for killing civilians to get more support from western countries. And he also don't allow ordinary citizens in big cities, for example Mariupol, to escape the city regardless if they want to fight or flee. Russia is playing this soft here, no mass artillery barrages and all out tank columns sweeping and destroying everything, no disruption on communication service and traffic, and they've basically taken control of a territory that's bigger than what US took during their time in Afghanistan within just 3 weeks and neutralized most of Ukraine's fuel and ammo depots, not to mention Ukrainian tanks and equipments are lost more than what the West are supplying to them. So it is hard to say what will be the war outcome if the Russians suddenly decided to play more aggressively.
@@tranthiminhchauam5538 1) What is your brilliant alternative? 2) Russians don't allow civilians to escape. They treat them as hostages.
Just got to say Perun, it's your insider content during this conflict that is the best about TH-cam. Sharing your knowledge with us from your day job is a rare privilege. And you are doing it in a considered and professional way. Thank you.
What's his job? I missed that
Don't need to qualify it, it IS the best content on YT RE the war. Sure, it maybe lacks a micro view re how the war is going, but I think the macro view you get from it informs a lot of what you can get from daily reports. :)
@@Arivald_ He's a video gamer!
@@Arivald_ From what I can tell some sort of analyst in defence procurement, but I don't know if he's ever said outright
Check out the Speak the Truth podcast. He does a daily post regarding troop movements. MUCH more comprehensive than the "news"
DROP EVERYTHING NEW PERUN MILITARY VID
I literally just said out loud "Wake up babe new Ukraine war video by Perun just dropped", the I saw this comment lmao
New Perun Seminar*
As a Russian and not a military expert I can not comment too much on the content of the previous videos. However I can say with confidence that the depiction of the Russian side of things in this video when it comes to manpower and reserves is extremely accurate.
Doubts about the capabilitys of equipment in storage are also quite grounded. Got a few friends who served in such units, and they have similar opinions.
My friend if you can please move out of Russia like many other Russian TH-camrs have. Georgia and Kazakhstan seem popular destinations. I'm worried Russia will soon be like North Korea. Nobody can leave or get in.
If you're young getting out of Russia is a must if you want a future. Even if Russia wins its not exactly going to be a good life for young people in Russia.
@@idleishde6124 Russia loosing is positive outcome for Russians as it will likely lead to the collapse of the Putin Police State Kleptocracy.
These Ukranian chaps are heroes, especially the irregulars. This is what patriotism, selflessness and heroism literally mean.
Ukrainians ..... have long been persecuted by the Russians, from the very moment the Russians interpreted the 1640s Pereyaslava treaties not as Ukrainians granting Russia military access, but as a form of complete subjugation to the Russian crown.
The Soviets didn't just starve their forefathers to death in the Holodomor for profit, they also poisoned the lands around Pripyat in the Chernobyl disaster of 1986. And then, to top all of that, Viktor Yanukovich continued to steal from them - with Russian support.
Plus there are hordes of ethnic Russians in Ukraine proper - not to mention migrants from Russia who must've fled to avoid Putin.
As a result, it is not surprising as to why the Ukrainians wish to fight rather than surrender.
Your comments on the legal implications of civilians performing military tasks seems very prescient with the recent revelation of atrocities committed in the Russian retreat from Kyiv. I’m sure it will be decades before any trials for war crimes, but I expect your observations will be used in defence.
Excellent video! I look forward to your next.
Edit. Those farmers recovering tanks, etc. will also be very useful in repairing and scavenging should not be underestimated. Having an ability to fix something at 8pm during harvest season is almost universal for farmers. It won’t be pretty fix, but it will work long enough to get the crop off.
What farmers want someone's rubbish dumped in their field?
This military business is bad for people who need food as much as the rich man in his Kastle but will lack any way to pay for it.
It’s unfortunate but I don’t think moral can be claimed when Ukrainian government armed their civilians, asking them to pose for photos, then cry atrocities when civilians and irregulars die in conflict. That’s not going into Ukrainian secret service carrying out illegal arrest and tortures against Russian Ukrainian long before the war. All things considered, the Russians were surprisingly lenient by their standard. After what they did in Chechnya, I expected far worse. In any case, Ukrainian irregulars being conscripted after the ban on men military age from leaving the country won’t have great effect on post war recovery. If I’m Zelensky I would be very careful with using them.
@@lc9245 Russians were not lenient, and the castration+execution video from las week proves it.
Also, can you please provide any proof of Ukrainian secret service torturing russian-speakers before war?
One look at what Putler did in Chechnya and Syria would have been enough to convince anyone who knew that there would be no quarter regardless of whether you helped or not. Just being Ukrainian made you culpable. This was going to be a Russian genocide of everyone who was not pro-Russian.
@@lc9245 Is this a joke? Lenient? Take a look at Mariupol, Bucha, Irpen, recently liberated Izium and Lyman, etc. Take a look at villages which do not exist anymore, because all the buildings are outright flattened. What about missile strikes on the Thermal Power Plants, high-raise buildings, shopping malls, a dam, etc.? What about non-stopping artillery and MRLS strikes on Mykolaiv and Kherson? Russia has invaded a country in which most of civilians are fighting back. Does this mean that Russia has to kill and destroy all civilians to win? If your answer is "yes", then we're talking about genocide here.
Ukrainian Secret Police? What? Have you ever been in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kharkov and other southern/eastern cities of Ukraine? More than half of these cities' population are russian-speaking. What king of "secret police" are you talking about? The ones from your propaganda TV? And obviously, when it comes to "where are your proves?" part, you won't have any, am I right?
And finally, how do like "the ban on men military age from leaving the country" in Russia? Did you receive your "povestka" yet?
I'm from Finland and served as a conscript many years ago. For most of my adult life I've been hoping Finland to turn the army into a voluntary system as to me it has been a waste of resources and a violation of civil liberties.
However, this war has shown that the reserve based army has an important role in a modern war when the freedom of your country is under threat.
All countries are false illusions, you’re cattle clapping at your oppressors
@@nickbearly4941 could you elaborate a bit how what you wrote relates to anything that I wrote?
For smaller nations I totally agree with you. I’m lucky enough to live in a country with a large professional military and a large professional reservist force. I’m from the USA. But when it comes to smaller countries (My state alone has more people then all of Sweden for example) it can be a real benifit to have a civilian population who are able to quickly mobilize within the military and be effective
We here in Scandinavia and Finland are so few that we need every man and quite a few of the women under arms if the shit really hits the fan. Besides, at least here in Norway a lot of people have fond memories, personal growth, tradeable skills and lifelong friends from their year of service.
Interesting. In the U.S. I think we would benefit greatly from required service for a couple of years, or possibly a system where serving for two years gives you the right to vote. So it is voluntary service but only those who have served can vote.
Our local territorial militia is doings gods work (ukrainian here). These units have larger losses than the regular forces due to lack of training & being over zealous. Otherwise, they are wrecking havoc on russian troops and supply lines.
I have a couple of friends who enlisted, there are issues with some equipment - especially clothing - but otherwise they are well supplied. These units are actively training with Javelins, NLAWs, and many other weapon systems that we're getting from the west. I know that certain units are being trained by foreign experts (Israel, USA, UK). All of this is making them more dangerous, capable, and increases their survival every day.
Some of acquittances from the Azov battalion mentioned that in the Kyiv region these TD forces suffered insane losses in the first 2 weeks. However, this didn't affect them at all from the morale stand point. They never stopped fighting even when 90% of the squad died. The remaining guys would join a new squad and just push forward the next day. It's insane to watch how these people are standing their ground.
As someone who doesn't serve, we do exactly what you mention in the video. Supply cash, clothing, equipment, anything we can. Like my family gave away every sleeping bag, thermal clothing, pair of socks, backpacks that we had. Everyone is trying to help the army in some way.
Slava Ukraini!
Even here in the USA civilians are going over to help. I’m from PA and a bunch of guys from near where I live went over to fight a week or so ago. I think it was like 4 guys from Buck county PA
Nice that ISRL is allegedly training them after they didn't even want to admit that Russia is a bad actor at first... Especially a country that should know better than to stand with Z-fascism...
I really appreciate your comment. I do think that point has not been brought up as much it should have been. with reservists in Ukraine case the territorial defence always take more casualties at the beginning and are less effective however every day combat experience counts for weeks peacetime training. So the longer the war takes the more efficient this units will get.
In my experience there is no lack of men willing to take up arms or help the war effort. I doing my part fortifying hospitals' windows with sandbags and unloading/sorting/loading the humanitarian supplies that come from the west (thanks btw). There is always more men to do the job, than needed. Organizer requested 10 men to show up to help unload supplies. 20 showed up. The other day he asked for 20 people to show up and there were at least 40. Once he said: "50 should be enough for this", well you get the idea. Friends, friends of friends, just random-ass people from the street who see what you are doing and offer help. It drastically reduces time it takes us to do the job, since everyone is trying to do as much as possible in shortest period of time, because there won't be much work for an individual with so many people around. Of course it only further accelerates the process.
Perhaps it can be summarised better by saying that I don't know a young person who didn't contribute to the war effort in one way or another.
Great. I can't really do more than grill the one member of parliament I know, to vote for sending as much weapons as possible. After this shit is over, I'll come to Ukraine, help clean some streets up, and empty my bank account to local businesses.
@@MVHiltunen grilling your MP is a lot, actually, since he/she (partly) makes calls on weaponry. If they hesitate, their voters are the ones who do the convincing. Thanks for support
@@katamarankatamaranovich9986 Just to mention, it seems that we will be joining NATO, and hopefully that distracts Russians to stage some sad showoff exercise next to our border. Also, we (and the swedes) can probably send more stuff after that. There is strong will to help, even among politicians, but we have our own 1300km border with Russia, and there's only 5M of us, so no weapon in our stocks is 'surplus'.
You have a good point. I think a lot of people in modern society have a lot of spare time on their hands. Every day, I "waste" time on mostly meaningless activities such as playing games or watching shows. If my country was attacked, even though I am not a soldier, I would be able to give 40+ hours every week towards the war effort even if i was still working my regular job full time. I can make food, I can transport supplies, I can repair electronics. All useful skills that a civilian can contribute to the nation in war time.
As a retired combat arms NCO, and then as a civilian military logistics analyst, this is the right way to apply history and contemporary analytics to what is happening in Ukraine. This should be part of a Journalism Class on how to understand war.
I love the idea of Yuri and his mates from the pub having a pint and taking a few shots at tanks. Either way, I served in the reserves in the US for 8 years. In the US, reservists train side by side with regular troops for the first part of training, and are almost a 1 for 1 when needed. It helped the US during the last 20 years.
I have to say, I am ****REALLY**** impressed by this series. I am a gamer but I don't play the games you cover. I'd never taken any time to watch your gaming videos, but I'm a bit in awe of how well-read and thoughtful this series on the capabilities of the Ukraine is. I watch a large (and probably a bit unhealthy) amount of analysis of the conflict, and your content is better than any mainstream media by leaps and bounds. And you do it so very, very well.
Well done, sir. Slava Ukraine.
We must always remember that any weapon in their hands is held by people. There are many videos on my channel about how the Russians and the DPR militia are fighting. All videos are in English or with English subtitles - you will know exactly what is happening there!
100 percent agree!
It’s just Ukraine, not the Ukraine.
@@manofwar6233 , you have been exposed, shameless orc. I speak ru and was pro-ru until the invasion. Now, as an eastern European, I would gladly eradicate orcs in a glassed Mordor, no matter the price, exactly because of what you are doing.
I love the comment about the legality of carrying ATGMs in a private car. I have checked with my insurance company and it's not a problem but they may exceed the claim amount for individual items if damaged..! Also takes road rage to a whole new level.
Seriously though, I have loved this series and give you my thanks for your hard work.
Right, my insurance won’t even let me drive for Uber… But seriously, I’d think that marking the vehicles would be the most important element. I’ve seen the Russian militia putting a big “Z” on their civilian vehicles being pressed into military use. To not do so would put legitimate civilians at greater risk.
What's you're insurance, I'd switch in a heartbeat ;)
I'm pretty sure it makes you a non-uniformed combatant if you do it in Ukraine, aka a partisan. That means that if captured, you are not entitled to the PoW treatment but the partisan one which is traditionally a summary execution. Just so you are aware.
u should look at a bunch of old Russian Road Rage videos, I think some of those mad drivers would muster a better force than the orc horde...
@@SnakeDoc455 So all they would need to do to win is to form a Waaagh of a few 1000s of Russian drivers?
Absolutely wild seeing my favorite Dominions channel pivot to in-depth professional level analysis of modern warfare. From Russia to Ermor, Perun on top of it
I was just thinking this today.
Yea i would like to know what he does for a living
When I was in the Canadian army we were taught to destroy, soft targets like fuel tankers supply trucks etc. There is nothing worse then being cold wet (or hot) and carrying 60 lbs or more of kit hungry tired and never knowing where your enemy is or how long the fuel in your APC or truck will last. In built up areas your eyes are in the 360 degree mode looking for the guy that launched a bullet at you who could be anywhere which is very very tiring and scary.
Harassing fire is something any man can go with any firing gun. Old hunting rifle, single shot target rifle, whatever. That constant pinging of rounds when you're trying to sleep, eat, take a shit, it's what the Afghan guys learnt with their wars. No peace means constant low effort enemy
@@JoeWalker98 i was thinking that about the drones, honestly! We've seen a ton of quadcopters being modified to drop shit on Russian positions. Honestly, even if those munitions don't hurt or kill anyone, just the toll it takes on Russian morale and readiness is well worth the effort and cost.
@@angryscotsman93 : Which is why the Russians have adopted America's tactics from Korea and Vietnam - shell the shit out of anything that moves. Shoot first, ask questions later.
In truth it takes more than just military manoeuvres to fight a war, and more than just hard power to maintain an empire.
@@meilinchan7314 little late but I would honestly say that if that is what America did in those wars, then they took that from the Russians lol. Because Russia has been around quite a bit longer with a lot more wars, and there backup plan always seems to be; shell the shit out of everything with artillery until things stop moving.
00:00 Introduction
00:33 Ukraine - the 'outnumbered' underdog
01:08 But wars aren't fought by only active-duty armies
02:01 What am I going to cover?
02:38 Key thesis
04:41 What this presentation isn't
05:37 What is with these reserve numbers?
07:47 Historical mobilisations: rapid and overwhelming
10:13 USSR mobilisation system
13:03 What about Russia?
15:54 Paramilitary forces
18:06 Chechens
20:05 Syrians
21:05 Mercenaries
22:12 Local proxies
23:42 What ties this all together?
26:02 Ukrainian experience - National Mobilisation
27:06 Ukrainian experience - UTDF and Regular Reserve
30:01 TDF and Regular Reserve (cont.)
31:23 But they're not supermen
32:58 Ukrainian experience - Militia and Irregulars
35:22 Ukrainian experience - Volunteers and Quasi Militia
36:44 Tractors - More than a meme
38:24 Defacto support services
39:19 Intelligence gathering and information warfare
40:38 Complex contemporary picture of whole-of-society resistance
42:32 Ukraine hasn't gotten it all right
44:54 Lessons we can take?
47:55 Long term decline in reserve forces
50:11 Designing a Reserve Force
50:44 Right sizing the force
52:18 Capability - What do you need them to do?
54:03 Organisation
55:29 Equipment
56:31 My takeaways
1:02:34 Outro
Thanks 🙂
The reservist power should also affect weapons design. Much of the advantage of the ATGMs like the NLAW is the ease of use. Previous generations of anti-tank weapon required a highly trained soldier to use effectively, careful aim and getting in the right range etc.. But mass-producible "smart" infantry ATGM, MANPADS and simple drones for scouting, that are quick to train soldiers on can make basically trained soldiers able to hold out against air and armor attacks effectively. Particularly "gamifying " the weapons so young soldiers with 5 years of video games experience can quickly understand the controls and targeting systems.
Those are very short range and risky to use, main battle tank is very scary machine, to get up and shoot tank you must have steel balls, person with manpad is very easy target for tank and infantry
@@dmitryhetman1509 However a truck often isn't nearly as scary, and if you take out enough trucks the tanks and infantry are starved of supplies. A tank out of fuel and left sitting in a ditch is much less intimidating and can be taken out quite easily. Just a terminology tick, MANPADs are just for Aerial Defense, the AD portion of the acronym, and they can be great to take out helicopters or low flying attack aircraft, and since they're so damned portable you can pop up with them just about anywhere such a vehicle will be operating. Same with some of these portable anti tank systems, you can even fire some of them from within buildings, meaning all you need is line of sight from any direction, and cities are literally full of angles and hidey holes that can prove deadly for an attacker.
@@dmitryhetman1509 Thats not true at all. A NLAW can be effective at 800m and the old gen Javelin Ukraine has at 2.5km. Current gen javelins the US has have a 4km range. You also have all the SACLOS ATGM systems that have ranges between 2-5.5km.
Sure there are also a lot of unguided AT systems in Ukraine with lower effective ranges like RPG-7 300m, AT-4 300m, M72 LAW 200m, Panzerfaust 3 600m and in comparison an MBT 125mm gun has an effective range of 4km, and a BMPs 30mm autocannon has a range of 2km. But the thing is the human eye cannot see small targets at these ranges very well. If someones hiding in a bush 200m away with an M72 watching you through the leaves you aren't going to necessarily notice them when you're in a convoy. At longer ranges you need magnification optics to engage effectively and in this case the party striking first has a huge advantage. By the time you've been hit by a salvo of rockets, lost three of your vehicles and a the crews of three more are bailing out so they don't get smoked by the follow up volley, you then have to use your optics to zoom in to a distance to scan the terrain to try and find the enemy in a limited field of view so that you can actually return fire.
If you don't have thermals or night vision at night thats not easy and anyway the ambusher can decide if they want to stay for a second volley anyway depending on the situation. It would be hard enough to try and find these light infantry from hundreds of metres away, let alone if they're already melting away into the forests, villages, hills or whatever
Young people are really good at piloting drones with xbox or PS controllers!
When parents said we was wasting our lives on games, they better look how Ukraine has fared. That's fight simulator type training in types of games like Battefield, so when the kids enlisted it probably was not too alien using some of the equipment, so they were ready to go quicker. Equally its absolutely horrifying we been conditioned to able to use said equipment easily, via games. :0
"Yuri and his mates", absolute legends. Thank you for the presentation. I really appreciate your insight into this. 👍
And "Ivan, his mates and a couple of NLAWs" :-D
Me and my mates doing our best
At the Pub! Lol aussie humour!
@@simens8646 "Ivan, his mates, and a couple of (I)N-LAWs": friends and family make life a joy
In regards to your statements on mobilizing police, the Iraqis actually did this during the ISIS invasion back in 2014 and as a general rule performed better in defensive operations than many army units. In offensive however, they were utterly useless and took extremely high losses.
this sorta makes sense. in defense theyre protecting their home and neighbors. but attack requires alot more training and discipline that cops dont have. im just guessing here but i bet the cops were super timid when attacking and probably threw off any synchronicity with active units.
Isn't there a netflix movie on Nineveh SWAT Units fighting ISIS behind enemy lines in Mosul???
@@fretted4life Ye, it was called Mosul. I personally never saw it, but I heard it was good.
@@robertrussell5856 I've seen some action scenes from the movie they make a shit ton of mistakes like setting off booby traps, friendly fire, grenades they threw bouncing off a wall and back at them. So your assessment of them being crap in offensive roles makes sense.
@@robertrussell5856 saw it two days ago. I really liked it, it's not the best film of all time but it had an cohesive story, the action scenes aren't overedited so you actually get an idea what they are shoting at/getting shot from.
Great video as always! Regards from a reservist in Finland knowing exactly what his wartime mission is. 1 year of military training +25 years of regular reserv refresh breeds confidence! 💥💪
Just joined the reservist force over here. I might end up being no more useful than Yuri, but man I have gained respect for Yuri's contribution.
As a political scientist I say this is some of the best analysis out there. Thank you for this.
What do you mean by political scientist, where do you work and what do you do? Personal question I know but I am currently a poli sci student considering all options.
@@chrishahn1273 sorry I'm only a political scientist by education. Im a dual major history and poli sci, But I work in IT and try to keep up academically. I just think his take on this is top notch.
@@vinnypopadop That's awesome, how did you make the switch to IT?
@@chrishahn1273 Just been doing it for 15 years. it was my job while i was in school.
From 1 political scientist to another.....
I gave Russia 2 weeks to take Kyiv, and 2 months to neutralise the entire nation. If they could not do this, the chances of Ukrainian survive - I dare NOT say victory or success - will drastically increase.
For Ukraine, all I can say is that it was/is necessary to protect the Lviv-Kyiv corridor at all costs. They can afford to lose any and all other parts of the nation but not any city between these two.
Fast forward a quarter of a year, and I have been proven right.
As an active S2 I really appreciate the meticulous work done with this presentation. It’s spot on.
The observation NATO was taken by surprise, both regarding Ukrainian mobilization and fighting will, as well as Russian performance, is completely correct.
almost makes me think nato wanted russia to attack ukraine, so they could bleed russia dead with sanctions and their untested toys while not spilling a single nato blood drop :P
Bruh I just got done binge-watching all your Ukraine war videos, and then you hit me with this at 11PM.
This has got to be some of the best content on TH-cam. Seriously well done
I was going to write an angry rebuttal over the whole conscription thing but then you brought up Israel, South-Korea and Finland and I was mollified. Aye, the conscription vs regular army argument is not one-sided or straightforward and you actually seem to have a good grasp on its nuances. Well done!
There is also an advantage to local people in a reservist force defending their local area and that is local knowledge. Especially things like running checkpoints and scouting and ambush operations. They know the back roads, local farms in the countryside and the alleyways and tunnels in cities. They know who to trust in the local community, and can get feed information easier from them. Even a professionalized military force defending a town is probably mostly made up of soldiers from elsewhere in the country and lack this hyper-local knowledge and advantage.
If I knew a line of Russian tanks was headed to my town (one main road in, two out), I have a pretty good idea where the best ambush points would be.
Most of the country is steppes unfortunately
@@anon2427 : But said steppe is also criscrossed by many rivers and creeks.
Russia's inability to punch through (and to a certain extent, Ukraine's inability to hold them back) is very much explained by this fact. It's not so much about racing across the Steppes as it was back in 1941 (in no small part because Stalin thought the reports of Nazi attacks were #fakenews )as it is now about seizing and conquering towns who control strategic bridges and/or crossings (which again, owe their existence to the same).
A possible contemporary example of a nation in arms - arms that include ATGWs, MANPADS, drones, AK-47s, etc. -Great analyses.
I suspect Lithuania, Finland, Poland, and on the other side of the planet, Taiwan, will all be doing some similar analysis on the Russian invasion and Ukraine response.
Please do more of these kinds of video clip pieces.
Especially Taiwan (aka Formosa; aka Free China).
Won't help Taiwan at all. What China will do to force Taiwan surrender will not rely on ships, planes, infantry nor tanks.
@@crhu319 Think you are wrong on that one.
This is way better than any lecture my professors gave over the years
This channel is better than any major news channel. Best unbiased info into this conflict.
Just heard a phone call from a Russian Soldier and his wife that his time has been extended automatically even though he was at the end of his service. He told her he had put in to leave the army but he found out from his commander that he did not have a choice in the matter. He did not sound happy.
Perun: I feel as if I was sitting at the right hand of General Mark Miley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff while watching these videos.
Please continue. Your distillation of such a wide range of topics is marvelous. Thank you for spending the time to present such an important topic.
However, your presentation begs the question: given all the points you make, and assuming that Putin a) refuses to quit, and b) refuses to make the adjustments you recommend, when does he start 'escalate to descalate', e.g. tactical nukes?
If Russia not "at war," it is a giant leap to say that tactical nukes are needed; Russian policy is that nukes are only used when the existence of Russia itself is in question. With no foreign troops in Russia and no inbound ICBMs, what is the justification?
It's very emotional thinking about the society-wide effort of Ukraine to resist the invasion. I hope we'd hold up half as well if the situation were different.
Not sure where you live, but across central Europe the mobilization of society to help refugees has been huge...If you are US based, well it's true a former POTUS with a large following is begging putin for political support, so not sure how that type of invasion would go down...but I have faith in real American patriots and the US military :)
@@JonZiegler6 Yeah, he's such a friend of Putin that didn't dare pull any of this shit furing his term. A true puppet.
@@JonZiegler6 That large following joins the military at a high percentage. Do you think we wouldn`t fight if we were invaded? Two million illegals invade our borders every year and it sounds like you don`t have a problem with that.
I dont think youd have to be a patriot to want to fight back against, I dont know, a surprise Chinese attack, blowing up your house and killing your friends.
This guy knows his stuff. When first clicked the first of his war videos, within a couple minutes I looked at his channel and saw he was a gamer channel mainly. I would say within 10 minutes I was really amazed and I must admit slightly shock at his level of knowledge but his own analysis(thoughts) are very well done.
All that COD is paying off!
His well spoken and systematic style, while still being interesting and engaging is very underrated.
His professional background is intelligence analysis. So he’s qualified
His day job must be something in logistics
Gamers are intelligent people, mostly.
I hope you don’t stop giving these talks on the Ukrainian war because, what you have to say gives us hope. There is so much rubbish on the internet and it is a relief to hear from someone who knows what he is talking about. We value the real facts. Thank you.
One of the few channels that I can watch on 1x speed for an hour with full attention and wanting more. Many countries will remain safe if they follow this excellent overview of lessons learned. Excellent presentation as always.
One of the few channels covering the conflict without drawing baseless conclusions and spewing propaganda from one of the sides. I don't know how you manage to keep my attention with a powerpoint presentation more than channels with flashy animations, infographics and such but pease keep making these, not only on this but other countries, other conflicts past or present etc.
Because it is facts, good conclussions based on strict assumptions and with explanations of limmitations. We have just forgot how good it is to be well informed on a topic. His work is the oppositre if quick TV news or silly memes (allthough he understand memes and do use them to underscore a point and that)
Would love to see more of these videos, not necessarily on the current war if you feel its been exhausted. Rare to find information on the military-industrial side of conflict that doesn't immediately put you to sleep. Great job!
The quality of your presentations are hands down the best context and assessment of the Ukraine Russia War. Please keep doing what you're doing, and go after the extreme propaganda on both sides to help expose the reality of the situation.
Especially go against the extreme propaganda.
It bothers you, I believe & it bothers us, so a win-win
+ The Chieftain’s dispelling of propaganda video was not as in depth as I see you are willing & ready to go
Thank you. From Portugal.
Amazing research, brilliantly presented- honest, illuminating and engaging . Thank you-
massively appreciate this presentation series you're doing, as others have said this is really the best of youtube, volunteering your expertise to educate and inform in a way that traditional media struggles with
I would also like to say how much I appreciate how he doesn't put in distracting and unnecessary generic background music. I firmly believe too many channels especially the educational/discussion channels put in unnecessary background music when people actually want to get information/hear him talk and not hear generic music.
One minor historical point. Germany between WWI and WWII did have a small army, but they trained everyone to fill the rank/role above the one they were in and rotated people through the military because of the size limitations forced on them by the Versailles Treaty. So, they had a large pool of trained soldiers and a highly competent core. So, when they did expand their army in 1935 they had the trained personnel to handle it including the all-important NCOs.
-- Interesting. Roughly speaking, in the military (and in the civilian world) your boss supervises 4 or 5 people at your level plus whatever personal staff he might have. A "leader" might spend 10% of his time "upgrading" each of his subordinates and maybe 10% of his time getting "upgraded" by his boss and the remaining 10% just doing his "real" job in the normal manner.
It helped with the initial buildup but they still had a generation of young men who didn't do any sort of training prior to the war.
Japan today has same.
@@MC-pt8kv -- Well, Germany had the Hitler Youth which could provide "fill in" from below. There are other tricks: you have have officers and NCO "cycle through" into civilian life and let others take their place for a bit. German did a lot of get back into the air force business with a combination of glider clubs and joint development deals with other cooperative nations (believe it or not, one such nation was the Soviet Union.)
The US sort of did the same prior to WWII- the Army was built on a model of expanding quickly around the core small regular force at the start of a war using a draft and/or volunteer state units. Same deal in 1812, Civil War, Spanish-American War, etc.
You could go from corporal to sergeant major in two years between 1939 and 1941.
While I totally see where you are coming from in terms of "legalities of civilian support services" ... russia isn't rubbeling mariupol because people held a smartphone out the window.
Massive civilian casualties and terror are a fundamental part of modern russian strategy, regardless of the actions those civilians take.
"As long as they don't force their military and political leadership to surrender to russian demands: Kill more" is a simplified but I think correct way to put it.
I don't think those civilians are putting themselves at any greater risk than they already (sadly) are.
Also more fundamentally and as a reason for the above, russia has no regard for international law anyway, the russian state (not speaking about pjotr the average russian here) operate purely on a might makes right system. Ethics play no part.
If they thought that summarily executing every captured ukrainian regular was a beneficial move, they would be doing that, geneva be damned.
Very true, especially from a moral standpoint. That being said, from a legal POV, if civilians do perform military duties in civilian vehicles and buildings, those could be considered legit targets...but as you said, putin and his army don't care either way, and I hope the civilized world not only keeps the sanctions until he is gone, but begin to pressure countries like India who want to be on the wrong side of history...
@@JonZiegler6 I mean, I don't think the Russians consider anything or anyone a illegitimate target at this point
@@Horizontalvertigo for sure, but the law works differently. So when war crimes charges are made, don't be suprised and disheartened if they are less than you expected...
Well done. Your objectives remained at the surface level. Your narratve, while delivered at breakneck pace, produced room for the listener to digest much of your delivery. Most salient take is materials for communications with others..,I am now encouraged to pursue and apply the paradigm of citizen militia, or, whatever.
The obvious takeaway from this, is that cheap easy to use ATGM systems make reservists and irregluars truly effective and worth having at least on the defense.
Imagine if you gave them some Toyotas to improve there local mobility. That would be really strong reserve force.
I'm dying every time you say "Yuri and his mates from the local pub" or something in those lines :D
please keep up long form content (30 mins and longer). It’s so hard to find TH-cam videos that aren’t just 5-10 min summaries….I want deep dives with all the details. You fill this niche very well please keep it up
Agreed. A lot of people complain about the superficiality of the 5 minute report on TV or TH-cam, but how many of these complainers are willing to sit down and watch an hour long presentation like we have here? (I actually have watched it twice, and skipped back at certain points to better understand what Perun was trying to say. Like you (probably), I took in the information presented in this video as if my understanding mattered.
People complain about the superficiality of news (to the point of calling it fake news) but most aren’t willing to put in the work of reading or watching more in depth reporting and analysis.
This was GREAT! You are the best analyst I've heard yet! No wonder Beau of the 5th Column recommended your channel.
Sorry I never paid attention to your gaming videos. 1. Never recommended by YT. 2. I am a casual gamer to begin with. I work in IT on commercial systems. 3. I am American, I was born during the early days of the Cold War. I grew up watching the Soviet Treat in East Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. I even joined my countries Civil Air Patrol at 12 years old because I could get my pilot's license for free when I turned 16 along with my drivers license.. It was a "volunteer" force of course. But we trained with M16's and did winter maneuvers with the Air Force Reserves as part of our training. learning to fly and the math required was a challenge, I learned respect for my weapon early.
As a young black man I felt more secure and confident at protecting myself and family from enemies domestic (KKK) and foreign (RU). I ended up working as a contractor in the Nuclear Navy. We had a purpose back then, like Ukraine has today. I am not worried about RU launching a nuke. M.A.D is for REAL. NATO would have no choice but to take RU out. Deaths on both sides for real. But, there would be no more RU. And the rest of the surviving world will rebuild. China will also lose with all the fallout coming from RU.
RU losing a conventional war, and going bankrupt, will be embarrassing, but it beats being dead.
Please do more of these. I’ve binged watched them all. I’ve even passed these to my buddies.
Your channel is the best analysis I've seen on TH-cam when it comes to this war and I watch at least two hours a day of content about this war since it started. Just keep it up!
This is the best series of videos about this terrible war, thank you!
Thank you for making these videos! They're on par with the best university lectures I ever attended and I mean that in the best way possible. In my 4 years of college I have experienced the entire spectrum of college lectures, from the unbearably boring to the captivating and incredibly interesting. These videos fall firmly in the latter and teach me a lot and make me want to learn more, which is everything that a university education is supposed to do. The vibe I get from these videos is exactly the same as the one I got from my favorite college professor and I love it. If you choose to do so, I hope you lean into this and make a career on youtube because you are incredibly talented at explaining complicated and nuanced topics like this. In 25 minute segments with a professional mic and simple graphics, I could easily see you hit 400k subscribers within a year and to be able to be deservedly compensated for your talent. And these hour long videos would make an amazing podcast as well. Best of luck in whatever you decide to do!
One thing is certain. This is going to teach my country how to deal with a Chinese Invasion.
Can we applaud for this man who just have a summary for people that doesn’t want to watch the whole video? Instantly became my favorite channel
I echo many of the sentiments, of the commenters, this is honestly the best coverage of the Ukraine conflict I have seen. Its Analysis, It doesn't have dumb music, or use of the same stock videos over and over.
I know you don't technically "cover" it in a news sense, but still. This is honestly the best source of information on the conflict.
“To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
"to be victorious in battle you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I think he knows a little more about fighting than you do pal because he invented it! And then he perfected it so that no man could best him in the ring of honor! And then he used all of his fight money to buy two of every animal, and he herded them all onto a boat! and then he beat the crap out of each and every one of them! And that is why, to this day, if a bunch of animals are in one place it is called a Tzu! Unless it's a Farm!
@@sirzorg5728
Heh, heh. This is serious stuff, so thanks for making me smile! :)
@@sirzorg5728 underrated. Please, do one for Clausewitz.
It’s the script from TF2’s “”Meet the Soldier”.
I work in this field and you’re teaching me so many valuable ways to look at the situation. Thank you, and please keep up the good work.
It’s almost like I’m listening to a Ukrainian nation guide for dom 5…and it’s fascinating. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
These videos are so interesting! Thanks for putting them together
Perun is the very best military analyst I have listened to in ages. Brilliant, articulate, incisive and totally unbiased delivery 👏. I am hooked👍👍. Well done...
It has been interesting for me to see the "truth is the first casualty in war" paradigm die, or at least become very qualified.
Thankyou once again, Perun, for a thoroughly rational, scholarly and professional analysis.
Got to say I watch everything there is on the conflict, all day every day and am a very keen military historian. For me these presentations are without doubt the finest, most informative, thought through and insightful things out there. Not being a gamer I only came across these videos through searching for quality material on the net but every one of your videos on this subject blows me away. Well done and thank you
Another in your excellent, fact-based and considered presentations! Well done again!
The gaming channel that comes out of no where to be the one of the best wartime analysts on the internet.
Definitely in my top three favorite channels. Ive been binging, keep dropping em Perun, I can't get enough.
Good Job Perun, you are doing really great in this Role. I enjoy your toughts/analysis about this toroughly. I know this is not exactely your comfort Zone, but it is going amazingly.
As soon as this video hit my notifications, I dropped what I was doing to watch. Not disappointed, as usual. Very clear, concise, entertaining and informative. You have a gift for this!
This seriously is one of the best channels I have found in years. Your presentations are of superb quality. Keep up the good job!
Greetings from 🇩🇪
Ich stimme ihnen da absolut zu und mittlerweile gebe ich diese Seite in meinen Kommentaren des Öfteren als Link an , weil man im deutschsprachigen Raum einfach keine rationale Vorstellung von "Russland" hat, da immer dieses geopolitische Blabla vom "der Russe" vorherrscht. Ich wollte sie dazu animieren, die Videos ebenfalls zu verlinken, damit mit die Debatte im deutschsprachigen Netz ein bißchen an Niveau gewinnt. Danke!
I had great uncles that lived in Germany in the 1930s using their own money to get involved in the glider hobby, “ be a greater pilot it’ll be fun they said” so at the beginning of WWII they found themselves as glider pilots for the German army which after landing they had to get out of the glider and fight as an infantry soldier. They were not happy, especially after paying themselves to learn how to be a glider pilot!
You mean .... Your family are Nazis?
Thanks for putting this presentation together. Your material is well organized, as truthful as verifiable contemporary information allows, and I believe, fair
Excellent work, I am going to send this to a friend that is an officer still in the Guard and is a ROTC Instructor, he will love it.
Excellent analysis, the Ukrainian defense reminds me of the Boar War and Galliopoli, Amorphous in-depth light infantry.
First of all, Boer War (and there were two), not “Boar War”. Second of all, it’s Gallipoli, not “Galliopoli”. Thirdly, wtf are you talking about?
@@MarcosElMalo2 He is talking about how the Boers and Turks were able to defeat larger stronger British forces through good small scale light infantry tactics on the defensive.
I watched all your hour long videos multiple times now, hope you can keep it up!
Highly thoughtful and insightful, thanks.
Gotta say this channel is highly underrated. My only complaint is the audio quality but the content is great. It's well thought and and explained.
one note: maintaining civilian communication infrastructure under your control has been huge for the irregular advantage both direct and infowar side of the conflict.
Perun, you're really talented at this stuff. I know you're not a "historiographer" but keep it up because your insight is legit.
Much of what you saw in the early days of the war was more a problem of unfinished territorial defence system as we where caught up during implementation. As for distribution of weapons in Kyiv to basically anyone who was willing to come up and take a gun... It was caused by an anticipation of an immediate russian assault its not how this system was intended to work and more of panic reaction. For example in Kherson TDF command just didn't have time to form those units... In cities which were not under attack in the first days of the war territorial defence brigades (yes its not some sort of ragtag formations, TD battalions intended to be consolidated into light infantry brigades formed on a regional basis, one brigade per region) were formed in a much more professional manner. This system is essentially created from the experience of 2014-2015, when civilians were self-organising into militias to defend the state.
The good ol classic "oh shit! Open the armouries!"
I think it was a totally reasonable decision to get arms out quickly. With the general speed of modern armor and airborne operations, it was at least reasonable that there would be major combat in Kyiv within 48h or so.
I will say your analysis is so thorough that I have to remember to wait until I finish watching to reply, but at the same time I have to take notes for things I think you miss, but you just cover later in the presentation.
Excellent video. I spent the last week watching your video series on Phoenix Point. Not sure what difficulty you play it on, but your thoroughness in that style game really speaks to a cautious but thorough approach you take in putting these videos together.
Your final point about the robustness of an industrialized nation to respond really belies the point that for a large nation to meet the needs of millions of people it needs to be organized and have systems to respond to everything. In the US its not necessarily the Federal politicians that get things done, it's the department workers in the bureaucracy and local city governments that manage the keep the garbage running for millions of residents. It's logistics all the way down in government and in business. Notable America businesses like McDonald's and Amazon and Walmart aren't just about selling goods, but the robust logistics to get the goods to the customer in a timely and cost efficient manner. Internal logistics is comparatively easy compared to projecting logistics into hostile territory. Logistics is what made the US and the USSR so effective in WW2. Once the factories were turned into making weapons the two fielded thousands of tanks and millions of rifles, and probably billion of bullets. But Russia is facing the same issue the US faced in the Afghanistan and Iraq: they haven't approached it as a fully legalized War. The US has not gone to full War since WW2, and it would be terrifying to see it do so today. Ironically I hoped early in the pandemic to see the US even slightly open up its production capacity for medical supplies but the government was too much of a pansy to really undertake the national emergency the way it should have.
Look forward to any future videos whether it's about the conflicted War or Phoenix point.
Excellent!
A multi-ordinal gemstone mind at work is a sublime pleasure unto itself.
Thank you.
I know you said this is the end of this first series about the conflict, but we’re looking forward to more, great work
This is easily my favorite series on TH-cam, thank you and keep it up!
In a world where people take photographs of their dinner, you're damned right the TDF are going to take a picture of the tank they blew up.
different times, different things to brag about on the internet :D
Thanks for doing this video! I was one of the few who voted for it. I was eager to hear analysis of this topic because I write fiction, and my science-fiction writing is centered on a nation that uses irregular troops as its first defense against invasion. In the worldbuilding I've done, they train citizens in combat as part of basic education. This video (and really your whole series on the Ukraine War) has given me a much better idea of what that training would include in order for that strategy to be effective.
Thank you so much for doing these videos. I've been so hungry for nuanced, well researched content about this conflict. Creators like you are really helping me wrap my brain around this historically significant event we're witnessing.
"Thanks Captain Perun, my military advisers are writing this down". Half the world's militaries probably.
Love your in-depth and excellently reasoned analysis. Thanks for your great work
You're providing a great set of analytics to consider for us humble viewers and I've enjoyed these immensely.
Also great to hear an Aussie on youtube, keep up the good work mate
You are so good at this. Some of the best coverage on the subject.
Best deep analysis I've seen. Goes beyond superficial coverage I've been watching. Thanks for all work this must have required.