I recently sold half my tech stock holdings due to all-time highs, leaving me with $400k. Should I invest in ETFs now or wait for a market correction considering potential inflation?
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Good analysis Mr. Odd. A couple additional things to consider are that NIO is projected to install 2000 battery swap stations in 2025, although it is not clear as to who is funding them all. In addition, of the 60% battery swap take rate, how many of those people have free battery swap for life and/or have received battery swap incentives and for how long after their initial purchase. To your point, I think we need to see more of the partners coming on board with their swappable vehicle launches to drive profitability. I wish NIO management would be more forthcoming about this to their shareholders.
Thank you. As I said, the calculations cover the end of the year only. But. Battery swap is a dynamic situation, so we will base future calculations on updated battery swap stations
Mr. Odd, firstly, thank you so much for your hard work. This information is very important for us, the investors. This makes us feel better and be more confident regarding investing in Nio. I own so far 15K shares at $7, and I am planning to accumulate another 5k more this year. Holding it long and strong. Vamos!
Great video Odd. Love this kind of stuff. Thank you for sharing. I know it’s a lot of work, but you are the expert, you should try and put this video out quarterly.
@@markshepperson3603 The chart of SoFi technologies had the same issue. They supressed it for 3 years with shorts. But with better and better earnings-reports and guidance from the CEO they couldn't stand a chance anymore and the stock exploded for me 120% since september. That's why I'm investing in NIO in the first place, because the situation is almost the same, just needs more patients...^_^
Great video Mr. Odd, NIO should manage their swapping station build out. They aren't profitable and money definitely doesn't grow on trees. If NIO has to pivot they need to be flexible.
LET'S FIGHT BACK! I own an important number of NIO shares and I am tired to see how the company is reaching milestone after milestone, and the shorts killing the stock price action. Let's get organized and fight back!! All we have to do is buy one stock each one of us. We are so many on social media, the shorts are just a few. We will crush them and they will give up and we will recreate the GameStop phenomenon
We are many, but not together. I suggested in previous video that Nio should do something such as purchasing back some shares. All TH-camrs were against it.
Someone mentioned about the planned CATL swap stations. Another competitor for swap stations is Aultron. Would be nice to hear your thoughts on these competitors. Aultron claim to have 800 swap stations, a collaboration with 16 auto companies, and 30 car models from those auto companies capable of swapping. So it also depends which swap partner wins out with the auto companies as the standard to go for. Aultron swap design is a bit different and they say they can do a swap in 20 seconds.
Honestly I don't see Aulton as a competitor or a threat, but rather as a complementary player in the market. They do swaps on low and mid-range cars, especially taxis and transport and cargo vehicles, while NIO is dedicated to offering service to higher-end cars. Aulton can seamlessly operate in the taxi market and cater to its needs, while NIO can handle the premium market with more personalized service without any issues. It's impossible for NIO or Aulton to have a monopoly and solutions for all segments of electromobility; there is a market for everyone to meet the needs of each niche in the EV market. NIO and Aulton have well-defined roles and the needs they must meet.
Thanks, Ata. We’re on the right path, the company progression is becoming geometric. Btw, regarding a formerly touched topic recently mentioned by Marcel Munch on a tweet, do we have confirmation that by placing high selling orders of our share lots we’re preventing these from being lent?
it depends on your brokerage firm and what kind of account you have. Are you set up for options trading or paid lending? Personally I always allow my shares to be lent out last year alone it added 16% to my income stream via paid lending fees. I don't own any Nio at present I'm waiting for it to bottom out
This was a very nice analyses. Thank you for this! It's important to note, as you already mentioned in the video, that the total amount of swapping stations keeps increasing, hence in turn means that general profitability of the swapping stations is being postponed at a constant rate. Taking this analyses into account, do you think there is a real possibility Nio is going to take over Tesla in the near future with regards to revenue due to this exponential growth in battery swapping stations? I mean, Nio has proven that battery swapping infrastructure is viable and it establishes a reoccurring revenue stream that no other EV company has. CATL is now also stepping into the game of battery swapping, so this confirms battery swapping is here to stay. I know Tesla has other revenue streams as well, but what do you predict?
You are welcome. I don't this Nio can take over Tesla in revenue anytime soon. Tesla's energy is becoming very powerful and will improve in the future. However, Nio is at the inflection point of the exponential growth. So Nio will reduce the gap as time goes by
Battery swapping is inevitable for all vehicles, when power tools first with batteries they where fixed, charged with cable , quickly moved on to battery swapping to keep tool working, who wants to buy a used car with a suspect battery.
Another advantage of battery swap stations is grid balancing resulting in additional income for Nio. Would you be able to estimate this income? I remember that the CEO mentioning making 200,000 euros from one swap station from electricity trading.
Totally agree.there are more factors such as the implementation of solar panels and grid balancing as you said. It is a dynamic situation. So the 60 swaps per day might be 50-55 these days. We are just looking at rough estimates
Another advantage of battery swap stations is grid balancing resulting in additional income for Nio. Would you be able to estimate this income? I remember that the CEO mentioning making 200,000 euros from one swap station from electricity trading.
Chery partnered with NIO about 1 year ago. They are currently testing Swapping with a new SUV that should come to market in 2025. First foreign large car manufacturer using NIOs Swap Stations. And certainly not the last.
we are just hearing one or two models of Chery from one partner..I was surprised hearing from CATL with 10 models commitment from its partners even though they dont have swapping stations what NIO had..NIO invested huge on swapping stations ..are they are not productively or aggressively planning in utilizing these swap stations.
CATL partners are low end vehicles that mostly will be used for taxi and fleeting service. For now CATL and NIO are not directly competing each other. Firefly is a small car，but not a low end one. It has 9 airbags, same as ET9 the flagship. Firefly will sell more to overseas markets. As William Li said, globally the market for high-end small cars is 10M, China only has 1.3M
NIO's current downtrend is forming a descending triangle, with the 4-dollar range acting as a critical support level. The stock's next move will likely depend on whether it breaks below this support or rebounds. Short-term, there's bearish pressure, but a rebound near $4 is possible. Mid-term, a recovery to $8-$10 could occur with positive developments like sales growth or infrastructure expansion. Long-term, if NIO executes its strategy well and the EV market grows, the stock could reach $20-$30 by 2025-2027. Investors should monitor the $4 level closely and manage risks accordingly.
Can Firefly be successful without readily available swap stations? We are starting at ground zero with this brand and it may take years for there to be enough swap station for the firefly brand and without the advantages of swapping will Firefly sell?
All Nio, Onvo, firefly brands can use charge only. So, swap stations can wait but not for too long since battery swap competitors are joining the fight
I was just making a difference between Nio and BYD. Nio takes a lot of time to enter in the other markets , e.g. , UAE and Europe, this is due to the different model that requires infrastructure for BAAS implying also high costs. BYD is entering very quickly and getting slices of the market in every country they are . And that is the same comparing Nio with other Chinese companies.
@@TheOddInvestoryes correct , this is why BYD deliveries are skyrocketing . For Nio to enter in a market and start delivering takes time, maybe too much?? Xpeng, Zeeker,Xiaomi will sell higher and quicker and they will take slice of the markets
Why not do a graph of average daily swaps per station? Then do average free swaps per day. I think 60 swaps per day per station is a very very difficult target......batteries are also undergoing modifications that will affect swappable volumes. Swapping charges to customers have to be increased.
Average daily swaps per station is a good idea. We don't have the data for free swaps on a daily basis. 60 swaps per day per station is not fixed. Nio uses solar panels as well and used to have employees in these stations. As I said the entire battery swap analysis is not fixed. But good suggestions
Hi Odd Investor, Most cars sold until 2022 have included free battery swaps. As a result, even if these vehicles utilize the battery swap stations, it will not contribute to NIO's revenue. This factor needs to be considered when projecting the numbers. Please let me know your thoughts.
Based on available data, vehicles delivered up to October 12, 2020, were eligible for unlimited free battery swaps. Between October 12, 2020, and August 1, 2023, new owners could purchase a package for a limited number of free swaps per month. After August 1, 2023, free battery swap options were discontinued for new customers. So it is reasonable to estimate that a significant portion of the 671,564 cumulative deliveries as of December 31, 2024, have some form of free battery swap entitlement.
Totally agree. Good points.it was in the Summer of 2023 that Nio canceled the free battery swap. But, the 60 swaps per day per station is also an old info. These numbers are rough estimates
Hello Mr Odd Just came back from China. What do you know about the Aion car brand. My taxi driver said his taxi has battery swap. He said it takes 2.5 minutes to swap the battery. He said they don't use the NIO swap station but have their own. I Googled AION and saw some connections with AION and NIO. There were many AION on the road both taxi and private cars. If both AION and NIO are using the same swap technology, this would make battery swap more prevalent than we know. Can you check this out?
I don't know much about Aion. But there are other companies that are using battery swap and it is becoming very attractive. I expect most companies including BYD and Tesla will offer battery swap in the future.
Did you bring in the calculation that those 403000 Nio owners WHO swap has 4-6 free swaps each month ? No one barely pays anything for using the stations How do we know this ? Look at the other sales income of Nio Its the same as Li and xpeng
Holy shit. This is an excellent vid.
Thanks Mr Odd. Nice job.
Thank you. Glad you found it useful.
Don't work for money; make money work for you. Invest wisely today to create the freedom you desire tomorrow.
Many new tra-ders face challenges without proper guidance. I found success by learning from James Clark's expertise.
@@WinniAltieriThat's precisely why I trust and value the guidance of Mr. J. Clark in all my endeavors.
I recently sold half my tech stock holdings due to all-time highs, leaving me with $400k. Should I invest in ETFs now or wait for a market correction considering potential inflation?
Celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today from a $6k start. Investing wisely has given me time for family and future plans.
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Good analysis Mr. Odd. A couple additional things to consider are that NIO is projected to install 2000 battery swap stations in 2025, although it is not clear as to who is funding them all. In addition, of the 60% battery swap take rate, how many of those people have free battery swap for life and/or have received battery swap incentives and for how long after their initial purchase. To your point, I think we need to see more of the partners coming on board with their swappable vehicle launches to drive profitability. I wish NIO management would be more forthcoming about this to their shareholders.
Thank you. As I said, the calculations cover the end of the year only. But. Battery swap is a dynamic situation, so we will base future calculations on updated battery swap stations
Very good ,everything time i think about giving up on the stock, i watch your video and recharge my battery 😊
Haha, you mean swap your battery
@TheOddInvestor haha that's right
Mr. Odd, firstly, thank you so much for your hard work. This information is very important for us, the investors. This makes us feel better and be more confident regarding investing in Nio. I own so far 15K shares at $7, and I am planning to accumulate another 5k more this year. Holding it long and strong. Vamos!
My pleasure!
should average down now, this is a great time
Good to see you back and making new videos more regularly, hope the painful mortgage issue is now resolved…
Thank you. Better, but not completely resolved
Great video Odd. Love this kind of stuff. Thank you for sharing. I know it’s a lot of work, but you are the expert, you should try and put this video out quarterly.
You are welcome. Thanks for the nice words. Agree, quarterly is the right time frame
Thank you very very much my odd friend who give us so important information in this cold wether! TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOURFAMILY!!
Thank you so much. I am happy to share my information
Thank you Ata...Great video and great info!...
You are welcome
Wonderful analysis. Thank you so much for sharing
You are welcome. Glad you like it
2 years before we rise above 5 then boom to the moon🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
@@jmnka let's go back to 60
When shorts go it will go up nicely, could be this year with the products.
@@markshepperson3603 The chart of SoFi technologies had the same issue. They supressed it for 3 years with shorts. But with better and better earnings-reports and guidance from the CEO they couldn't stand a chance anymore and the stock exploded for me 120% since september. That's why I'm investing in NIO in the first place, because the situation is almost the same, just needs more patients...^_^
Great video Mr. Odd, NIO should manage their swapping station build out. They aren't profitable and money definitely doesn't grow on trees. If NIO has to pivot they need to be flexible.
Totally agree
Very good info. Thank you brotha
You are welcome
Great analysis, thanks a lot 🎉
You are
Thanks so much for your hardworking
You are very welcome
What about the revenye they are making on charging stations? Also customers using BSS are more than 60%..more like 80%!
True, I wanted to be conservative
LET'S FIGHT BACK!
I own an important number of NIO shares and I am tired to see how the company is reaching milestone after milestone, and the shorts killing the stock price action. Let's get organized and fight back!! All we have to do is buy one stock each one of us. We are so many on social media, the shorts are just a few. We will crush them and they will give up and we will recreate the GameStop phenomenon
We are many, but not together. I suggested in previous video that Nio should do something such as purchasing back some shares. All TH-camrs were against it.
Thank you for the great information
You are welcome
Someone mentioned about the planned CATL swap stations. Another competitor for swap stations is Aultron. Would be nice to hear your thoughts on these competitors. Aultron claim to have 800 swap stations, a collaboration with 16 auto companies, and 30 car models from those auto companies capable of swapping. So it also depends which swap partner wins out with the auto companies as the standard to go for. Aultron swap design is a bit different and they say they can do a swap in 20 seconds.
Will make a future video
Honestly I don't see Aulton as a competitor or a threat, but rather as a complementary player in the market. They do swaps on low and mid-range cars, especially taxis and transport and cargo vehicles, while NIO is dedicated to offering service to higher-end cars. Aulton can seamlessly operate in the taxi market and cater to its needs, while NIO can handle the premium market with more personalized service without any issues. It's impossible for NIO or Aulton to have a monopoly and solutions for all segments of electromobility; there is a market for everyone to meet the needs of each niche in the EV market. NIO and Aulton have well-defined roles and the needs they must meet.
Great video mr odd things looking good for Nio apart from sp.
Thank you
Excellent analysis Masha Allah. Thank you for your hard work.
You are welcome. Glad you find it useful
Thanks, Ata. We’re on the right path, the company progression is becoming geometric. Btw, regarding a formerly touched topic recently mentioned by Marcel Munch on a tweet, do we have confirmation that by placing high selling orders of our share lots we’re preventing these from being lent?
You are welcome
it depends on your brokerage firm and what kind of account you have. Are you set up for options trading or paid lending? Personally I always allow my shares to be lent out last year alone it added 16% to my income stream via paid lending fees. I don't own any Nio at present I'm waiting for it to bottom out
This was a very nice analyses. Thank you for this!
It's important to note, as you already mentioned in the video, that the total amount of swapping stations keeps increasing, hence in turn means that general profitability of the swapping stations is being postponed at a constant rate.
Taking this analyses into account, do you think there is a real possibility Nio is going to take over Tesla in the near future with regards to revenue due to this exponential growth in battery swapping stations? I mean, Nio has proven that battery swapping infrastructure is viable and it establishes a reoccurring revenue stream that no other EV company has. CATL is now also stepping into the game of battery swapping, so this confirms battery swapping is here to stay. I know Tesla has other revenue streams as well, but what do you predict?
You are welcome. I don't this Nio can take over Tesla in revenue anytime soon. Tesla's energy is becoming very powerful and will improve in the future. However, Nio is at the inflection point of the exponential growth. So Nio will reduce the gap as time goes by
Battery swapping is inevitable for all vehicles, when power tools first with batteries they where fixed, charged with cable , quickly moved on to battery swapping to keep tool working, who wants to buy a used car with a suspect battery.
Totally agree
do we know what is the max capacity of swaps for each station?
480 for gen 4
Another advantage of battery swap stations is grid balancing resulting in additional income for Nio. Would you be able to estimate this income? I remember that the CEO mentioning making 200,000 euros from one swap station from electricity trading.
Totally agree.there are more factors such as the implementation of solar panels and grid balancing as you said. It is a dynamic situation. So the 60 swaps per day might be 50-55 these days. We are just looking at rough estimates
Good Job Mr Odd
Thank you
The swap stations must be successful in the long terms or we investors would never profitable
True
We need car numbers to be ~400 times of swap stations, which is very doable
We need 2 million car on road for swap profitable and nnio became monster we need 1million car delivery minimum 25/26
Another advantage of battery swap stations is grid balancing resulting in additional income for Nio. Would you be able to estimate this income? I remember that the CEO mentioning making 200,000 euros from one swap station from electricity trading.
Chery partnered with NIO about 1 year ago. They are currently testing Swapping with a new SUV that should come to market in 2025. First foreign large car manufacturer using NIOs Swap Stations. And certainly not the last.
Sorry. Wrote that before listening till the end
It is a great sign.
great research. thanks!
Glad you liked it!
we are just hearing one or two models of Chery from one partner..I was surprised hearing from CATL with 10 models commitment from its partners even though they dont have swapping stations what NIO had..NIO invested huge on swapping stations ..are they are not productively or aggressively planning in utilizing these swap stations.
CATL will compete with Firefly and not Nio/Onvo
CATL partners are low end vehicles that mostly will be used for taxi and fleeting service. For now CATL and NIO are not directly competing each other. Firefly is a small car，but not a low end one. It has 9 airbags, same as ET9 the flagship. Firefly will sell more to overseas markets. As William Li said, globally the market for high-end small cars is 10M, China only has 1.3M
We all wait for the stock to take off!
NIO's current downtrend is forming a descending triangle, with the 4-dollar range acting as a critical support level. The stock's next move will likely depend on whether it breaks below this support or rebounds. Short-term, there's bearish pressure, but a rebound near $4 is possible. Mid-term, a recovery to $8-$10 could occur with positive developments like sales growth or infrastructure expansion. Long-term, if NIO executes its strategy well and the EV market grows, the stock could reach $20-$30 by 2025-2027. Investors should monitor the $4 level closely and manage risks accordingly.
Makes a lot of sense. Thank you
Can Firefly be successful without readily available swap stations? We are starting at ground zero with this brand and it may take years for there to be enough swap station for the firefly brand and without the advantages of swapping will Firefly sell?
All Nio, Onvo, firefly brands can use charge only. So, swap stations can wait but not for too long since battery swap competitors are joining the fight
Mr odd why doesn’t NIO franchise out swap stations to avoid the expense
@@mdin1980 they do, William Li talked about that about a month ago. I think it's a great idea.
Good idea. I’d buy one.
They do. These "partnership" are in fact franchises
Exponential growth will lead to profitability
I was just making a difference between Nio and BYD. Nio takes a lot of time to enter in the other markets , e.g. , UAE and Europe, this is due to the different model that requires infrastructure for BAAS implying also high costs. BYD is entering very quickly and getting slices of the market in every country they are . And that is the same comparing Nio with other Chinese companies.
True. But BYD is much older than Nio and does not have infrastructure (battery swap stations and Nio houses) requirements.
@@TheOddInvestoryes correct , this is why BYD deliveries are skyrocketing . For Nio to enter in a market and start delivering takes time, maybe too much?? Xpeng, Zeeker,Xiaomi will sell higher and quicker and they will take slice of the markets
Why not do a graph of average daily swaps per station?
Then do average free swaps per day.
I think 60 swaps per day per station is a very very difficult target......batteries are also undergoing modifications that will affect swappable volumes.
Swapping charges to customers have to be increased.
Average daily swaps per station is a good idea.
We don't have the data for free swaps on a daily basis.
60 swaps per day per station is not fixed. Nio uses solar panels as well and used to have employees in these stations. As I said the entire battery swap analysis is not fixed. But good suggestions
Hi Odd Investor, Most cars sold until 2022 have included free battery swaps. As a result, even if these vehicles utilize the battery swap stations, it will not contribute to NIO's revenue. This factor needs to be considered when projecting the numbers. Please let me know your thoughts.
Based on available data, vehicles delivered up to October 12, 2020, were eligible for unlimited free battery swaps. Between October 12, 2020, and August 1, 2023, new owners could purchase a package for a limited number of free swaps per month. After August 1, 2023, free battery swap options were discontinued for new customers. So it is reasonable to estimate that a significant portion of the 671,564 cumulative deliveries as of December 31, 2024, have some form of free battery swap entitlement.
Yes, but the meaningful increase in battery swap started in the last 2-3 years
Totally agree. Good points.it was in the Summer of 2023 that Nio canceled the free battery swap. But, the 60 swaps per day per station is also an old info. These numbers are rough estimates
Keep buying NIO Shares @ these low prices 2025-2026 is the year of NIO
Totally agree
End of 2025 to early 2026 NIO will rise
Unfortunately its in china, so probably it will not show is stock price
NIO content in the context of USA vs CHINA in the following video: th-cam.com/video/BtirIYp5Ql0/w-d-xo.html
Hello Mr Odd
Just came back from China. What do you know about the Aion car brand. My taxi driver said his taxi has battery swap. He said it takes 2.5 minutes to swap the battery. He said they don't use the NIO swap station but have their own. I Googled AION and saw some connections with AION and NIO. There were many AION on the road both taxi and private cars. If both AION and NIO are using the same swap technology, this would make battery swap more prevalent than we know. Can you check this out?
I don't know much about Aion. But there are other companies that are using battery swap and it is becoming very attractive. I expect most companies including BYD and Tesla will offer battery swap in the future.
Nio should add Vending Machines at these SWAP stations and get more revenue. every $ counts
Hey, never know
Did you bring in the calculation that those 403000 Nio owners WHO swap has 4-6 free swaps each month ? No one barely pays anything for using the stations
How do we know this ? Look at the other sales income of Nio
Its the same as Li and xpeng
hellooooooooo odd investor EY ….