Tasha Talks Tesla | The Brainstorm EP 45
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 มิ.ย. 2024
- This week is all about Tesla. Autonomous Technology and Robotics Director of Research Sam Korus and Associate Portfolio Manager Nick Grous are joined by ARK Director Of Investment Analysis and Institutional Strategy Tasha Keeney to debrief on Tesla's latest earnings call and discuss their financial future.
If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.
Key Points From This Episode:
00:00:08 Intro
00:00:19 Tesla's Autonomous Tech In The Spotlight
00:02:48 Tesla's Full-Court FSD Push In China
00:06:14 Revving Up Revenue With Robotaxi
00:07:39 Major Roadblocks for Robotaxi
00:11:58 Tesla's Autonomous Tech in the Spotlight
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My last 8 drives on FSD have had zero interventions
🎉nice
Where are you based? California?
My last 15 minute drive to the gym required 6 interventions... I can go another route that requires 0-1 though....
It is curious that there is so little reporting in MSM about the current state of FSD.
I've noticed that there seem to be wildly divergent views on FSD. Some people rave about it, claiming virtually zero interventions, while others say it drives like a teen on their first driving lesson. I'm guessing that the reality is somewhere in the middle.
Tasha is very coerent and always make great analisys , excelent work !
Tasha rocking the Cathie Wood glasses.
Or the Harry Potter vibe...
Glasses rock! Tesla rocks !
Trying hard to not be a sexy beast and failing badly.
Tasha is much less feminine than she used to be. So sad.
@@carlkelley4566 I don’t think she cares, do you?
Launch with fully autonomous with "backup driver" (like early way): Q4 2024 (in multiple cities, 10-20 cities easy)
Launch with no backup driver: 2H 2025 (initially in limited geographies, few cities, 1-5 cities)
I got a nice bridge for sale.... interested?
That's pushing the boundaries of "regulatory approval".
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Tesla can say they think is ready.
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They can't say "use it as if it's ready"
That's just opening a can of worms.
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Go to regulators with the data.
Ask why it CAN'T be approved.
If they can't provide a good reason.... They have to approve it.
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If they try to deny the evidence, compare to other systems which *do* have Level 3 (ish).
Cathy Woods and TEAM is friggin awesome!! Truly an "AMAZING" lady!! Congrats Ms. Woods !! You and your team are "financial SUPERSTARS" when it comes to TESLA!! Greetings from the shores of Lake Huron, Ontario- CANADA!! GIDDYUP!!
They'll be awesome when the stock price at least partially reflects their wild predictions. Until then, it's all just talk. Other than their Tesla call in 2019, ARK's track record is abysmal.
I believe BYD is the one FSD oem licensee that Tesla is in discussions. The recent Chinese FSD approval seems to need a large local partner to get thru the internal politics.
Software integration will be needed costly for BYD who has zero cash on hand
@@donbreartonii1353Tesla can get a cut of every byd vehicle sold with Fsd. Byd Selling Tesla Fsd would cost byd very little apart from having to buy Tesla ai hardware . And most future cars will need ai hardware anyway
"Large local partner"?
I would say that meeting was a great Indication that they *HAVE* "got through the local politics"?
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I mean, if you have the "local Politicians" on your side...?
Don't worry about China.... They have it worked out.
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Be more concerned about the obstructive and backbiting quagmire in the US where even an agreed plan can charge on a whim, or with a change of "tie color".
Your car automatically opens your home garage door now when it gets within 50’ of your garage.
That's pretty useless, unless you're too crippled to push the button on the door opener.
@@darylfoster6133It's all about proof of what technology can do today and continue to advance.
@@darylfoster6133 It was in reference to the Cyber Cab coming home autonomously. Did you just jump straight to the comments without watching the video?
@@darylfoster6133 don't knock it until you try it. I love not having to press a button.
@TheNerdDoc we watched the video. The car can open and close a garage door already. What's the difference if the car is driving itself?
Tasha's level of intelligence is seriously impressive.......She never sidesteps questions in any interview or discussion 👍👍
You guys need to do a monthly Tesla podcast!
I see Tasha, I click. Loving the glasses.
Beta
@@DD-dl3io That's all you got?? Name calling 😂🥱Grow up, kid.
The glasses are way too large
My prediction is they are going to launch the cyber cab in at least one city in August.
Since the cab isn't in production, and there's been no application for regulation, that's "unlikely"
@@rogerstarkey5390 All the S3XY are viable taxis, not as profitable as proposed 'Cybertaxi' platform but plenty profitable enough. Some cities are already ready. But a host of other things make 8/8 seem unlikely, mainly FSD itself.
Semantics on the cyber cab commit. I disagree on the progress in regards to regulation, I believe they have made strides that aren’t public atm
The first AVs might be 3&Y with the dedicated Cab to follow
Vegas imo
Seeing Tesla wants to run a fleet of Teslas in the future, makes Teslas more reliable.
Thanks for sharing. Very insightful and encouraging.
Apparently, it takes 2 words to make Tasha smile: "eight" and "seven." Delightful lady. And thanks all for an excellent conversation.
Love the new FSD. No interventions on paved roads. My gravel drive/road isn't there yet.
charging for robotaxi could be wireless and the Tesla can open your garage so that is not a problem
Need a teslabot to clean the robotaxi.
@@Brad-sb1dk Funny
Bella Baxter talks Tesla - how cool! I saw the movie and now can't unsee Bella.
I think you guys forgot that Tesla is working on wireless EV charging. It has been reported that the Tesla Cybertruck has hidden hardware for wireless charging. The Cybertruck's service manual reveals that its high-voltage battery pack has connectors labeled for an inductive charger. This could be why they are scaling back on their super charger deployment.
You are grasping at straws
Far more likely that the other companies "pulling back" meant that Tesla has sufficient chargers for their own cars with the small number of others using the network.
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They are going to complete projects already started, upgrade existing sites and fill gaps in the network.
(Ref X post)
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*When* others return (if they don't just disappear) and *when* they contribute (rather than saying "we're in" then pulling back) you'll see Tesla raise the game again.
Great Discussion !!!.....love it......
Tasha's point about a legacy company throwing in the towel and licensing FSD is spot-on. The software and technology is hard, and the cultural hurdles may be even bigger.
I’m already using a garage door open that connects with the Tesla that opens and closes my garage door when I leave and opens it when I get about 30 feet from the house on the way home. It was only $ 30.
Interesting discussion thanks. IMHO I thought that public acceptance of Robotaxis would be crucial, just as it was on the eve of Atlantic flights after the Charles Lindbergh crossing served to ease apprehensions about flying over a large expanse of water. I feel that a couple of coast-to-coast journeys without intervention are necessary, particularly in the light of the recent FSD disconnect after the Tesla vehicle hit a pothole.
Love Tasha! ❤️
Who is going to keep robos clean for each fare? Will be a total nightmare when one pulls up and there’s trash, baby throw up, etc. and the person has to waste time waiting for the next one which is hopefully clean.
The S & X has a sensor 0n them where the garage door will open automatically when the car gets within so many ft of the garage door.
Use differences for Urban, suburban, exurban, rural or country?
Inductive charging.
Tasha + Tesla 🔝 Notch
Everything will be connected so the car ca open the garage itself when it needs charging. Can also park above a wireless charging plate when it is produce, highways with wireless chargers. Snake charger.
Highways are not going to have wireless chargers, if you're referring to charging while driving. The cost of installing that would be astronomical.
Thanks for this tesla and tasha
There will be recharge services in metro areas, on the network, someone will plug in the car and look it over.
100,000 miles per year is 274 miles per day, or 11.5 miles per hour. Every single day. Bulk of the demand would be during rush hours then much less demand the rest of the day.
How many miles does the average Uber/taxi driver cover in a shift?
Charging robot axis is a issue as many chargers are near highways not city centres. I foresee wireless charging parking lots where taxis charge/wait for rides. Cybertruck has the plumbing for wireless built in.
Charging, whatever method, needs to be done on 220V. Daily supercharging will shorten the battery life considerably.
As a name, Cyber Cab might fit more regions of the world (hail a cab vs. hail a taxi)? Also, Cybertruck has minimal Tesla markings, so 3rd party fleets branding also work better? Reduce thickness of stainless steel for Cybercab for scalability? A compromise for manufacturing speed but still gain some rigidity, durability and weight savings?
Tesla likes vertically integration. Why would they give a cut to another cybercab fleet operator when the profit from selling a cybercab will be small compared to the income from the cyber fleet
So.... you want to use a massive truck to cart people around????
To get usa regulatory approval, Tesla needs to launch FSD / cyberCab in China. Being left behind will scare USA regulators.
Cybercab could be due to regulation. They might be prevented from using taxi ranks. Cabs aren't prevented from coming to you.
8/8 2024, ROLLOUT WITH FREEMONT AND AUSTIN AS BASE.
I’d love Tasha to revisit Graphene. It’s been a decade, as far as I can tell!
All great predictions for the USA but which year will Cyber taxi launch in the UK and the EU?
… I don’t see what’s the problem with the garage door opening/not opening. My model three can open (and close) the garage door. It’s been doing that since November 2018.
My guess is the trade-in vehicles indicative of buyers stretching for a Tesla, is evidence of confidence in FSD, and the option of putting their car in the fleet. The reason is simple, I think people who own a machine that prints money will leave the machine plugged in.
People have weekend retreats, cabins in the woods, sea-side cottages but not many like to rent them out to strangers when they are not using them. Most folks cars are full of personal stuff you'd have to empty out before sending it out as an earner. Plus folks who can afford a new Tesla probably don't need the money their car could be making.
@@Martin-se3ij AirBnB's success shows the model works. And the top trade-ins for Tesla's are Civics and Tundras, which indicates they're stretching. As in, they see the opportunity to own a car that cash-flows, and they're going for it.
Tesla will incentivize inclusion in the fleet by making it win/win/win. (Tesla/owner/rider) And when FSD enabled cars start printing money, everyone will pile in.
The individual robot taxi problem is the damage to the interior of the car. Tesla aren’t tough inside . As well where the trunk bumper when people pull there suitcases.
Cybercab can be made tough inside
Robotaxi the generic term. Cybercab the Tesla brand of robotaxi.
Commercial grade robotaxis (stainless steel exterior, durable & washable interior) with Tesla bot attendants to maintain the fleet would seems to address most common daily needs for a fleet.
A cyber cab that just ferries people from their house to the airport 8x a day, every day, for $20 a ride will generate $60k a year.
My gate and also my garage door are currently geofenced to open as I approach.
Was hoping for Supercharger drama discussion
What drama?
Tasha baby
Re “how will Robotaxi (Cybercab) charge without humans?” Does this explain why Tesla acquired the wireless charging company / technology? Perhaps a future product where we just wire a charging pad in a parking spot and the car navigates to it to recharge (like my iRobot).
i can't wait to give FSD a try on a road trip
Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla are brilliant. Blazing a trail into the future, whilst legacy auto cower in the face of change and hang on for another bailout. But, I'm not convinced that Tesla's vision only FSD can deal with extreme weather events more common outside of California. Heavy rain, sleet, snow, ice, fog or even smoke. This is far more complicated than we're led to believe. Waymo isn't bolting on $200k worth of equipment to every car just for giggles. In an ideal world, each autonomous EV would be communicating with becons transmitted from smart roads and other EVs.
What is going on with the Charging network?
My take is that Tesla feels like it has enough stations, at least in the US. Now they will simply increase the number of Superchargers in the highest use stations. Having larger stations should be more economical as opposed to a larger number of small stations.
@@bobwallace9753 There are a lot of holes in the network once you get out of the major population areas
👍
I don't think Insurance for the user will be more expensive, as Tesla will have to take on liability for the Robotaxi network. Charging will be done by the user when it needs it. It'll just drive home and charge. My Model X can open the garage door by itself through home link.
@@user-sp6tl3nq8w Lol. They have to. Else there will be no Robotaxi. If they are responsible / cause of an accident, they are liable regardless what the insurance document says.
@@user-sp6tl3nq8w You would have to be an idiot to pay for insurance when Tesla is in control of the vehicle. That's like saying you should pay insurance for your airplane flights. If it crashes, it's Tesla's fault, so Tesla pays the bill.
Does Tasha have updates on Optimus and where she sees that part of the business in 5 years?
The update is it's a PR stunt. YW
Doing meanings task in Tesla factories today
I've never run a cab or Uber, but what about cleanliness? What if the previous customer leaves the robotaxi a mess? Something to think about and probably something that's already been thought about.
You pay by account. (Credit card)
When you open the account, you sign a declaration that if you dirty it, abuse it or damage it, you pay the inspection, cleaning and down time.
You're on camera while in the vehicle AND as you leave.
Refuse to pay? You're walking.
The next rider reports the car dirty and can even request a different car. The dirty car drops into a centralized robotaxi center for cleaning
People will have rating system, if you dirty a Robotaxi, their rating goes down and the price of their rides increase. Also the owners of Tesla's who put their cars on the Tesla robotaxi network could elect to have 4 Star or 5 Star rated customers only allowed to have a ride in their Tesla. Customers will want to make sure they keep a good rating or they won't be able to use it. So they'll want to keep the car clean when using the service.
There is a cabin camera. Tesla will know who made it dirty.
@@peterfireflylund The camera can't see everything. What if the person has muddy shoes? It also can't detect odors. What if a smoker gets in the car, and transfers the odor from their clothes to the car's upholstery?
Tesla can open your garage door for you? Where have you guys been?
It’s going to be a rocky road to the top but Tesla is taking over
Tesla ❤️
Tesla's stock is stuck in a debilitating downtrend and looks just attractive for a long-term investment once the short-term volatility and smoke settle. Right now i'd just like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $500,000 or less..
What happens to the battery degradation if you drive that Tesla Robotaxi 100,000 miles per year? Will the car need a new battery after 2 or 3 years?
Batteries in Tesla’s are a structural element. They cannot be easily removed because they are expected to last a million miles. Basically they last forever.
@@andyandreou funny, the key word there is "expected"...I'm skeptical. Has it been tested? What is the warranty?
@@Burgermonster Tesla reports that 12% battery range degradation at 200,000 miles. This is confirmed by Tesloop (an early high mileage shuttle service using Tesla) and Tesla app providers. As you might expect it's dependent on a number of factors, but it's safe to say the batteries in modern EVs (those with a thermal management system) will match or outlast a conventional ICE.
@@Burgermonster Dahn has NCM dual electrolyte cells on test at 4 million miles atm. When used in typical private urban cars charged from 30-70% there is no appreciable degradation.
CATL has a million mile warranty and BYD million kilometre warranty on LFP cells.
Recurrent Auto recent survey shows negligible ex-car battery pack sales for Tesla.
Farzad from Tesla warehouse reports very few pack replacements.
Dutch/Belgium database from early Model S days shows 300-500 mile ranges for vast majority.
th-cam.com/video/rOAYjcO6kao/w-d-xo.html
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=0
@@jimcarroll8977 that sounds pretty good but I'd be interested to know how quickly it degrades thereafter. I don't think it degrades completely linearly ( I hope that's a word).
How to charge when no driver to plug in?
Vehicle must drive to a charger where a human will be posted to plug and unplug, the vehicles will also need service and cleaning
Induction charging is used for driverless cars.
@@steve.k4735 24/7 charging attendant?
@@205rider8 no induction charger can do more than 3 kw/h currently so level 1 trickle charge. That means 24 hours to charge a model 3 from empty to full
@@POINDXTRMUSIC "currently" is the key word.
What's your thought on price per mile decrease once the Cybercabs start saturating the market? What do you think the plateau rate will be?
I'm a simple man, I see Tasha, I click
Seems like Tesla is planning to build a new car model specifically designed to be a Robotaxi that will have no steering wheel. If it's true, are you sure they will allow older models with the steering wheel to participate in the Robotaxi network?
This seems like an awful idea. What if it dies on a busy road? How are you supposed to move it?
I want a "Johnny Cab", more like a virtual Johnny than a Chucky Cheese animatronics.
Dan O'dowd head?
I think that if a Tesla can go out for hours and drive people around as a taxi, it will be able to open the garage, park, and close the garage. Then the robotic charging arm plugs in.
Car can open garage door with proper additional hardware software.
❤ Cyber cab rather than robotaxi.
Authority should embrace autonomous vehicle, imagine we can stop criminal car remotely, no more hit and run cases, no more robbing and run cases, no more kidnap and run, autonomous vehicle isn’t just for road safety, but also society safety.
Stanless steal is heavy compare to thin metal sheet or alluminium and is not maintenance free.
Does a new vehicle purchase have a potential robo-delivery option in the future perhaps? This should be a delivery option IMO.
I wonder why Tesla would not run the Robotaxi business themselves. The profit margin would be better and having total control would let them solve the automatic charging/cleaning problem themselves before opening the network to others.
When they do open the network, Tesla could offer insurance and FSD subscriptions as well as other perks in exchange for letting Tesla use your car a few hours a day.
If it's L5, the only insurance you should need is for theft and vandalism. If Tesla isn't accepting full liability for crashes, there's no way I'd loan out my car to the network.
The premise has been if there are cyber cabs, there would be less cars on the road, maybe that's why Tesla is scaling back production? ie. We don't need 20mil EV, just 5 Mil cybercabs.
Because Tesla knows that there is no such thing as a money printing machine
Robo taxi live by Dec this year, somewhere in the world.
What if passenger gets out does not shut the door correctly
Why couldn't an individual simply buy a Tesla Model 3 outright, then rent it out themselves as a robotaxi? How would that affect Tesla's revenue stream?
$1/mile is a no go. I believe Elon said $0.18/mile. I'm sure when it starts, it could be $1/mile, but city usage, it's great, but not for everyday people who travels 30 to 40 miles. That would be $80 both ways for one day just to go to work. Definitely not worth it. $0.18 /mile would be about $15 per day, not bad if you save on car purchase, maintenance, electric, insurance, etc. One year would be $2160 spend assuming 12k miles per year. Owning a tesla would cost, just insurance is $1200 + cost of car (assume $40k/10 years = $4k) or $5200 per year versus $2160 or you could buy the Tesla robotaxi and let it make money for you.
My question is where are all the new fares going to come from? I don’t see tens of thousands of people looking for taxis and Ubers that they can’t find. Or I will just dilute share for maybe the next 5-10 years, no? People are going to want to keep their cars for a long time. Hmmm
Button-up shirt is uniform of Heaven’s Gate
What if Ford were the fleet owner, Tesla make skateboard, provide FSD hardware/software. Ford re-badge ‘Tesla Inside’. Big win-win
Big win to who? Not Tesla. They will make more by running a fleet than selling the cybercab
@@allangraham970 My thought was Ford has the power and will to buy. Gets them into profitable EV and robotaxi game. They have the distribution network to put in chargers and have people look after the cars. Tesla gets a ready made purchaser of said taxis, without having to manually manage them, and locations to add superchargers/inductive chargers right across the world. Possible or not?
Tasha Wood
The $numbers for autonomous ride hale don't make sense me. Still cheaper for me to own my own suv. 50 miles round trip to work every, day 20 days a month and not counting any weekends grocery trips, that's 1000 per month minimimum. With my SUV annualized operating cost broken by month is $884. Minus any significant repairs like failed drive train.
What if robotaxi cost $.50/mile?
Imo you-all are ignoring how much work is required to solve, or account for, all the issues that are still to be addressed in the last x% of FSD. The number of interventions have lessened but how many of those drives took place in good weather conditions? For example: I can drive my car in a heavy downpour or in near white out conditions. Can FSD?
Looking forward to FSD supervising human drivers!
I know you’re here somewhere SMR
I think Florida will get cybercab first.
If I invented an AI bot analyst, she would look just like Tasha.
This Universal Trend of having a Beard the ''Scruff Look "
has been proven to be counter productive
Having a clean shave exudes confidence. This look is considered to be a confident and trustworthy look. It is a sign of confidence and honesty thus people are attracted to the clean shaven look. Psychologically, it symbolises self-confidence.
That image of the beard makes it very difficult to be accepted in social interactions and thus the corporate culture.
Have you ever wondered why sales people are advised to be clean shaven? A clean shaven face has high levels of trust associated with it. People can recognize you easily and you look non threatening and welcoming. The the most important characteristic trait of a good sales person is that he should be instantly liked and trusted. Facial hair does create a big psychological barrier between the approached and the one approaching. It takes a while to establish a sense of trust with the person if you have a beard.
What a load of crap. Did you read that in a comic book?
Tesla is also becoming an EV market tier-1 supplier of charging station equipment, autonomous driving software and services, and eventually vehicle batteries and vehicle platforms in partnership with other EV OEMs.
Until Elon fired the entire supercharging team 😂
@@JonathanRootD Tesla will likely still make and sell charging station equipment to other service providers like they did with BP. They just won't be installing as many stations themselves. This should be a more profitable business (no leasing, permitting, installation, and grid connection costs, wait times, and hassles) and eventually protect Tesla's Supercharging Network from regulatory monopoly concerns.
China numbers were good
There are a few assumptions which are almost impossible to meet right now. Full FSD within 2-3 years (how long has Elon been promising this, 10 years?). I reckon full level 5, will longer than 5 years and one fully compliant with regulations and safety probably at least 10 years. Then maybe another 6-8 players will also reach that within that time frame with some cheap Chinese manufacturers. So I'm not bullish a breakout by Tesla to justify a $2000 dollar stock price.
I dont understand the celebration of the china FSD approval. Its like investing in the first elevator company that has elevators without an operator. If it works and is safe it will be adopted everywhere be cause if a country doesn't adopt it there is a tremendous cost for that country. If you free up a part of the workforce they can go and do other jobs increasing the productivity of the country. And making transport cheaper makes the population richer in terms of standard of living. So I dont understand all the worry about regulators.
I always worry that the release of the cyber cab service could become really political, its going to put 100,000s of taxi drivers (voters) out of work
Like hertz
Hope American legacy company releases FSD before China. Musk likely wants to make them compete to launch first, as well as get other manufacturers on board?
My car opens and closes my garage now.
i should say , on the other said, BAIDU and GAODE map is wa,,,,,,,y better than apple and apple map!
Tasha, love that girl….
Uber will convert itself into a RoboTaxi company!
Just like Uber today, but without having to pay drivers.
Of course they are planning for this!
I guess they will start using Teslas with FSD supervised in some locations to confirm that it's working. From this, they will be well prepared to get regulatory approval for going driverless.
They might start with remote communication with the passengers, because Grok won't be ready for that.
Although, remote Grok could do it.
Tesla should discuss this with Uber, it's a win-win!
cybercab/robotaxi starts 8/8 in supervised mode. supervised? there will be the owner or tesla emp behind wheel picking up people commercially. owner will not get paid or get paid very little. it will be for enthusiasts (like me) to demo fsd and robotaxi potential as fsdv12 iterates and gets better
Sorry I am too big a capitalist. I understand a break in period and discounting to gain promotion. But that won’t last long for me. It can just sit in by driveway not racking up miles for the cause. That’s your job.
Who is charging the robo taxi? That is 273 miles per day which is 1.5 charging sessions. You L2 charger will eat up 10hours a day charging your robo taxi.