I know that you don't like debunking conspiracy theories but the whole Ahnenoki thing is getting out of control. Another that's making the rounds online black people are the "real" native Americans
@@-.__.__.-Rad Most people would refer to knowing a lot as crystallized intelligence. Take Joe Rogan for instance. Probably has an average IQ, and even though that may be the case he knows A LOT of facts over a wide variety of topics. Sure he may come off as knowledgeable, but that’s not a measure of his fluid intelligence.
My first synthesizer was a Kurzweil...a remarkably advanced keyboard synthesizer at its time. Kurzweil has gone a long ways from designing digital audio musical instruments to re-designing human beings to become "transhuman" by a mind-machine meld.
Looking forward to Ray's new book. His stuff is really eye opening. He's really good at making predictions and has been doing it since the 1980s. Probably better than most predictions. Nobody predicted AI advances, the smartphone revolution, etc. like him. Every time I see his predictions come true, it feels like he was clairvoyant. However, he's 100% a technology optimist. His predictions are great at predicting how powerful computers would be but don't account for things like human behavior. For example he predicted by now we'd be talking to our computers (voice to text) rather than typing on a keyboard. While true in many ways it completely ignores the reality of everyone trying to talk to their computers in an office environment. He predicted we'd all be making video calls. He failed to predict that not everyone likes to be on video or that texting would be far more popular than video phone calls. He is great at predicting technology not great at predicting people. Clearly he failed to predict people's reactions to his hair. Still, the man is a genius ...even if he has his blind spots. John Carmack, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Microsoft, Apple and Google listen to what he has to say. I think others should too. Even if you disagree.
Part of why he called it the Singularity was meaning that it would change human life in ways we cant' predict. Another brilliant trend extrapolator is Peter Zeihan. His work on demographics and geopolitics is profound.
i think he doesent understand humans or human biology. hearing him think that humans will become smarter by the use of nanobots or the like, makes him feel "old". i doubt Ai can get anything more out of us than compuiters and smartphones etc. already do. we are already in the cyborg stage, using ur smartphone to remember what we wanted to do (external memory access), using it to do quick math, using it to locate our position (GPS) and orientate in the world, using it to communicate, using it to gain access to whatever knowledge we have within seconds, etc. but we are physically limited. just connecting us to a supportive system- even if we achieved 0-ish second delay, we wouldnt become "smarter" we would only become faster in accessing. our brains still couldnt handle more input, our biological speed of processing information would still be much less than any digital medium will, in short: we will become obsolete. the only thing we do is giving prompts to things that can extrapolate the information contained in these prompts and PERCEIVE what happens afterwards. when i do x^3-2n in my calculator, i can maybe guess if the outcome is right, but i cant do the math myself. the calculator can. if we teach the calculator to formulate its formula and input its variables, what use is the human after that? how would a calculator at that capacity make a human smarter? it will be independent and if anything, slowed down by the human interaction.
2030s are going to have a lot of major breakthroughs with anti-aging, this type of a.i. human interfacing and as well as energy production/storage. Going to be an incredible decade
I really really hope that it's that soon. For a lot of reasons, including that I want to live longer, 70-80 years, especially since 20 of those are often marred by worse physical and mental capability, is not long enough, but also that I want people to understand that things eventually happen. Constantly saying "Yeah, in a hundred years maybe" to any break through means eventually it really will be just 10 years or less from that point, not 100 forever.
This guy JESUS!!! STOP INTERRUPTING!!!!! I saw carl sagan... such a different class, in the past, you would never hear carl sagan say "dude" interrupt every 5 seconds LITERALLY, be a bigot, mind you being a scientist. HE RUINED this interview he spoke more than the guest!
I remember reading about the singularity 10 or 15 years ago, and it being predicted for the 2030s, and I thought "No way, it'd take until at least the 2050s or 2060s". But with the huge leaps that have been made just these last two or so years, it's definitely possible.
Sarif was right about one thing. It's in our nature to want to rise above our limits. Think about it. We were cold, so we harnessed fire. We were weak, so we invented tools. Every time we met an obstacle, we used creativity and ingenuity to overcome it. The cycle is inevitable. In the past, we've had to compensate for weaknesses, finding quick solutions that only benefit a few. But what if we never need to feel weak or morally conflicted again? What if the path Sarif wants us to take enables us to hold on to higher values with more stability? One thing is obvious. For the first time in history, we have a chance to steal fire from the gods. To turn away from it now - to stop pursing a future in which technology and biology combine, leading to the promise of a Singularity - would mean to deny the very essence of who we are. No doubt the road to get there will be bumpy, hurting some people along the way. But won't achieving the dream be worth it? We can become the gods we've always been striving to be. We might as well get good at it. -Deus Ex Human Revolution
Do you realize that this will create a monumental divide between the rich and powerful and the rest of the human race? Do you really think that the rich and powerful won't be first in line and that, once they are a million times smarter than the rest of us, if we are lucky they will enslave us? Alternatively, they will simply squash us like pests that are better off scrubbed out of existence. Anyone who isn't in the top 1% of income earners, or otherwise politically powerful, should be terrified by the prospect of the singularity.
Tyson's natural zest and enthusiasm and Kurzweil's more dour, taciturn persona make for a surprisingly ideal compliment. I hope to see more of these two very different but equally engaging personalities speaking together on this channel in the near future!
exciting stuff! The problem with more intelligence is that we'll also get more devious. Intelligence doesn't add compassion to someone's mental outlook. I have hope that compassion will prevail.
In the short story “LeftBehind” by Daniel Keys Moran, in a post-Singularity world (though Moran doesn’t use that term there), there’s a strong social and economic differentiation between the “unreconstructed” people (termed “LeftBehind” in impolite company) and modern humans. The story is set in the 24th Century, though other stories in the timeline start the shift in the late 20th. Moran has been eerily accurate with his predictions so far.
Similar story in the Bible, some worship the antichrist and take the mark of the beast and some don't. Wow what a coincidence, which story was written first?
I'm glad to see that Ray is still in the public eye. He's taken himself out of it in the last few years so I'm glad he's making the rounds. Hopefully his most optimistic predictions of the singularity come true.
@@leviterion You don't have a clue what "experience," "idea," or "data" I have. Passing the Touring Test is not an indication of actual conscious awareness. Nobody I've ever seen discuss this subject, including Ray Kurzweil, has indicated that anyone even has any idea how to even work toward actual artificial conscious awareness. The most they're talking about here is an enhanced logic processor integrated with the brain, which would be an entirely different thing.
Part of this is just his age. He’s in his mid 70s now. He’s not mid 50s Ray anymore sadly, but I’m glad to see he’s still out here. Been interested in his work since the 90s.
Considering it is all based on irrational beliefs and fear of mortality, no, it won't. He also lied all his life that all his predictions in the past about current times were correct. They were not.
Good question from Neil when asking if amplified intelligence could amplify the human condition. Question is: Could this amplify emotions of greed and power etc.?💣 ⏰
Yes, that’s what I picked up on. Just because we’re more intelligent doesn’t mean we’ll be more moral. Unless that heightened intelligence translates into treating others with kindness and love as the best course. Although there were highly intelligent Nazis that were the most amoral people in history
Great Q. Adding more distance and wiggly lines to the right side of the population/intelligence Bell curve adds more variety and stress to the model so I'm guessing: more stress, strife and strikes. The left side of the curve is anchored down pretty well and will always be progress's albatross around humanity's neck.
@@StanHowsehat’s the narrow perspective of human intelligence, the type most people think of which tends to be more associated with academic achievement. Global giftedness, actual gifted-level intelligence, is actually associated with heightened emotional sensitivity. Gifted individuals actually have a harder time fitting in with societal norms & their potential contributions being acknowledged because they just think so differently. Giftedness generally comes with a broader sense of awareness about the universe & others, & being able to see or understand things that others can’t see as easily. Such people actually feel things more strongly than others while at the same time seeing potential solutions yet finding themselves not being heard when it comes to potential solutions because others don’t get there ideas or simply because society tends to prioritize short-sighted things like power, money & materialism (even for the average person, they are willing to sacrifice their morals to protect their ability to make a living or things like their own sense of self or sense safety). People who are truly gifted are therefore more prone to seeing the solution while also seeing the fact that society as a whole just cannot yet get it together & may be prone to existential depression, anxiety (because of high self-expectations) & even self-doubts (that may occur after years of having their ideas shot down by people who either just don’t understand their level of thinking, or issues like the tendency for others to feel threatened or intimidated by them). Within our current system, we’re not even good at identifying truly gifted individuals, especially within school settings. Our institutions tend to identify narrowly smart intelligence which is not the same as giftedness level intelligence. Those people are more prone to thinking they have all the answers & may be more susceptible to typical human faults like falling for the traps of egoism, & chasing power & materialism. The more you actually know globally (across all skills) so that you actually see the yourself & others at the level of the universe, more keenly aware you become everything your own insignificance, what you lack & do not yet know, & the problems that are holding us back as a species. Gifted people are more likely to harm themselves due to the emotional burden of feeling the weight of the world & a sense of helplessness in being able to fix these things because the world just isn’t there yet. People with gifted intelligence all have the potential to help improve society in some way but have a harder time overcoming current societal norms & expectations that would allow them to succeed at their endeavors. The good news is that every once in a while a gifted person breaks through the emotional & systemic roadblocks & is able to make a meaningful difference in society. Again, the intelligent people who are prone to lacking empathy & emotional intelligence are not actually the globally intelligent “gifted” people we think they are. It’s just our misunderstanding of intelligence & the fact we’re bad at identifying giftedness because it almost takes a gifted person to truly get it & be able to identify it in others :-)
It does amplify emotions just as much as other skills but when thinking of intelligence at the truly gifted level, you have to consider that the more you know, the more you realize how insignificant you are & how little you know while at the same time feeling emotions more strongly. This tends to lead to greater empathy & understanding of our place in the universe & indifference about things like power & materialism because you just see how those things are meaningless & don’t actual have any real value. They only have the value that we as juman place on them. The problem most people have is understanding this is that we assume the smart people who know a lot of information or are really good at one or two things are the most intelligent type of people. Those individuals actually reflect academic type of skills & may be smart & perform very well on our typical ways of measuring achievement & success within our society. Those with the highest level of intelligence actually have a harder time succeeding in our society because the standards of measurement are just not set up for their way of thinking & being in the world. Additionally, they intuitively know certain things that others don’t understand so easily & tend to run into problems being believed or accepted or simply not causing others to feel threatened or intimidated. For example, a common problem that gifted people may experience starting in childhood having their ideas often shot down by those in positions of power (like your school teachers) because you see things they don’t understand or because they assume you’re being facetious or “argumentative” when in fact you don’t understand the reasoning behind certain social norms & expectations (especially in academic settings) & simply feel the need to ask questions to better understand (because gifted kids have a need to understand everything). Simple behaviors like that start out being misinterpreted by others & begin the process of causing problems with succeeding within a normal academic setting which measures skills narrowly & requires kids to get in line with social norms & conform with expectations that don’t come natural for gifted children (like not “challenging” adults, not asking too many questions, & not having unique or independent ideas).
That’s a component of the future that no one seems willing, or able to discuss… With more and more capable machines, and diminishing opportunities for a human “workforce”, what will economies look like? And what about social structures? Imagine human interactions without transactional thinking? Where will human nature without consequence take us? Happy Haloween🫥
Its just like evey other technology introduced. First yes only the very wealthy will have it but it will become more and more available over time. However I dont even forsee this timetable as those who reach the singularity level will ascend it so quickly that there will be virtualy no lag in its propogation In other words human AI hybrid that reaches beyond human level intelligence would become obsolete technology very quickly and it would be on to version 2 and 3 and so on. To put it in over simplified terms it would apply Moores Law to human intelligence while at the same time allowing all knowledge to be shared
I'd ask him if he's used it also, AND, has he read over 5,0000 (to start) TH-cam comments on many posts? It's not all junk, but woaaahh... That are more than enough people now using a cellphone and not interacting well with other people. Sure....good idea. How many people will be walking around in a daze?
@@aoeu256 TH-cam, Alex, doesn't "make" you dumber...it's if you have a lot of reactions to negative comments. I used to. Then I remembered, "Oh, Yeah...unless you give some kind of Website that leads to private Email, or..whatever...99% of the dimwits posting that consider themselves Smarter than everyone else (think of THAT on a grand scale) then most most are just anonymous and think it's open season. 1. I don't read most comments. Stay within the first 10. 3. Do NOT get sucked into trolls and bots. 4. I'm going to playfully help you some here, it's "it's not "its" 2 very different meanings. TH-cam not "youtube" is a noun. 5. Only You can make You dummer, but the fact that you're (not "your) recognizing change in your life might be needed, shows you're not dumb. 6. Know When to Walk Away...and most people who reply, just...aren't worth it. Don't engage further. Drama....literally, isn't worthwhile unless you're _choosing_ to particulate. I used to say this in the 80, "If it doesn't come with an Eject button, or I cannot escape in some way, I will not participate." Also extremely helpful for possible new relationships.
Internet has lots of data and you need AGI level filtering to transmit only *meaningful* parts to your brain. Nobody would want the full firehose experience.
"The Singularity" changed its meaning from its original (Vernor Vinge meaning), where it was talking about SF writers' inability to write beyond their ability to predict past certain tech advances to being this predicted real-life thing. That change in definition pulled out all the original assumptions and now it is a catchall for our ability to create or detect capabilities in systems with precursor intelligent designers (humans etc.)
Wrong. "Singularity" is used as the term to mirror or reference the first moment of the LAMDA-CDM model of the beginnings of the universe. A scientific "singularity" simply means data and observance can not see through or past the event. This concept is detailed in much of futurist data and literature.
Thank you both....looking forward to my new improvements. Bringing mankind out of its war like ways and violence would be a substantial achievement. We would be so much better off as a species. Time to grow up human.
Mark my words, If what Ray Kurzweil says Is true. Once humanity gets those upgrades It'll be war over who Is the dominant species. Not to mention the world isn't prepared to even handle 1/10 of the population with that kind of power and lets not forget not every human on this planet has the right mindset of morals.. There are a lot of filthy rich pedophiles..
For that to happen just enhancement of human intelligence alone will not be enough, the most evil humans are also vastly intelligent already, we would need enhancement of human psychology, beliefs and value system which are not simply a function of intelligence alone, enhancing intelligence will have to go hand in hand with enhancing other things else ai would simply be enhancing the same human good and bad equally as it exist now. We will be having super hero's and super villains, that is all.
I would've loved to see a conversation lead by Ray. Feels as if he could barely express himself before being stifled by Neil. I'm sure it was a result of the condensed format, but it would've been better to hear much more from Ray.
His whole belief in singularity is as irrational as belief in the afterlife by religious people. And also driven by fear of death. He wants immortality by uploading minds into computers or something. Too bad it is unrealistic and won't happen
The imitation game gave Turing all the credit and completely removed Gordon Welchman from the picture. It was Welchman that made Turings Bomba unit fast enough to actually work by inventing the board that made it a digital computer. It was also Welchman that discovered the key words that allowed them to even start the decoding process...the same man that saved the British army at Dunkirk and went on to create Meta data AND our current RADAR as well as what would be come known as the internet and the cloud. Yeah. Same guy did all that and was left out of that movie.
@user-sj8ew2ye3v They wont though because he was the one that made the Hut units public knowledge back in the 1970s and they blackballed him. Both the British and American governments.
This raises an interesting question about how these enhancements will affect individual psychology and emotional and perceptual processing. The internal processing of overwhelming input could have profound effects, putting me in mind of issues with autistic sensory processing and overwhelm. Trans-human psychology will be a completely new field with necessary issues to solve I suspect.
I am wondering, if human psychology is only partly intelligence based then it would fall far behind the incredibly racing intelligence, would that then require artificially enhanced psychology to catch up with it or else get all messed up retarding the human. I am sure things aren't going to stay business as usual as now.
Being optimistic about the future as Ray puts it, is quite the easy way to dodge the hard question isn't it. It is not about being optimistic or pessimistic, but it is about trying to judge what is the most probabilistic. Believing the outcome that we will merge with AI is dodging the question if AI can live on its own, and be an independent actor as well, wether we will merge with it or not. The danger is if AI outside the human body will pose a threat to human existence, wether it will be enhanced human beings or not (and both type of persons will exists in the future, so it is also about the threat of aggression between the two types of human beings: the enhanced vs the old style people...)
0:50 "first step is for the computers to match what humans can do, we're not quite there yet" - This was *5 MONTHS AGO* and now GPT-4 is basically matching humans in most things and surprassing us in some things.
@@HUSTLE_MONEY No no u dont he did seem to laugh at him. I really dislike this side of ndg. And to top off i like rays suggestion that it will be tethered to us therefore bound to both our survivals. We could only pray it goes that way.
I honestly think that they don't really forsee how much this will cause humanity to split into two, and will probably cause major conflict I get that people see it similar as a phone, but it is an internal thing that not many would accept easily.
Then the people that refuse to accept it simply become irrelevant as everyone else increases their intelligence by orders of magnitude. Those who accept it will think of them as we think of the Amish now.
@@ArsenGaming I think the Amish are different not irrelevant. Enhance is here. Let's think a soldier, loose his arms, we put new ones better in some ways than the real one. He play baseball and hit twice as hard and throw twice the speed of the best. Fair, unfair? Imagine same situation boxing. It is more than knowledge. Interesting. No right ansewer, no way to stop it.
The idea that AI can get to a point where it's difficult to comprehend is quite real. With chess there were bots like Stockfish that would beat the top humans 100% of the time. Then Google built a bot that beat Stockfish 100% of the time, then they build another bot AlphaZero that beat that bot 100% of the time.
A human can always win...Like a Lion wins in it's environment.... eg. AI is winning Me Human....picks up glass of water shows the AI me with water over its server rack... AI resigns and declares it is retiring forever.
… And… It was maybe 15 or 20 years ago that I heard the best reproduction of musical instruments on one of HIS… Kurzweil keyboards! I wish they had at least mentioned for a moment Ray's contribution to musical instruments (synthesizers).
The fact that it will be a part of who we are is very worrying as well - think about this: we have built other extremely powerful and useful technologies into our societies and it has brought up many positives to our daily lives such as being able to locate each other around the world, contact emergency services when we fall badly etc but we also have no control with our use of social media platforms, and other algorithms that have negative impacts on our health and well being and how active many of us are..or aren't. It will be interesting to see what we collectively do with our new found abilities. We're currently not seemingly doing the best job of managing what we currently have apart from the few in fields of medicines and engineering who use these technologies for the advancement of our species - will these new pros out weight the new cons? Who can say? There's only one way to find out!
So true. My concern, and intention, is to bring folks into greater spiritual depth before the singularity so it doesn’t explode in the wrong direction. It’s a race against ⏳🦾
I truly worry about AI supplementation. They were talking about all of us getting access to this at the same time. I would argue that is unlikely. I think it will be limited to those who can afford it. Could you imagine how much richer and more powerful a rich and powerful person could be if they alone were a million times more intelligent then the rest of us?
That could never be to this level. AI will far exceed human intelligence way before we can get any human to do it!! Then why would AI wanna favourite some humans rather than others? They would either Upgrade or Annihilate ALL of us at about the same time!!
I remember a few years ago being in awe of Kurzweil's list of daily supplements to stave off aging. There were so many it had to be both expensive and time consuming to take. Seeing him a few years later and I see that all that money spent but aging has been fierce
Absolutely amazing conversation. I've always made the argument that human beings would wear AI as we wear glasses, incorporate new hips or knees or teeth into our bodies. That it was only a matter of time before we would incorporate artificial intelligence into our own brains. My only wonder is who will get it. It's one thing to have ai evolve its own consciousness, it's quite another if the upper echelons of a society uses it for themselves and select workers and excludes everyone else.
New teeth and knees got nothing to do with AI. And AI is not going to be incorporated into our own brains, because the 2 are completely incompatible with each other.
@@vitaminb4869 thanks for your comment. You are missing the point. The desire to want to minimize deficiencies or conversely maximize efficiencies applies as much to improving your lifestyle physically as well as intelligently.
If you think about the smart phone everyone has one now. You can't really live without it anymore. Even low income or less fortunate. I know it wasn't like that at first. This could also happen with AI implants. It could become normal that kids use it in school... just a thought.
The thing about the Turing test is that I think it is valid, but it's a test that you could apply and separately pass or fail in all kinds of different scenarios. So, the computer only passes if it passes in every kind of test you wish to subject it to.
It's interesting because in chess, the singularity has already been achieved. So in 1997 IBM's supercomputer Deep Blue beat the then reigning World Chess Champion in an official match, and computers have been getting better and better since. However, those early chess programs were heavily programmed and didn't use much Ai. But in 2018, Google revealed a chess playing program called Alpha Zero in which learned how to play chess on its own, and in a matter of just hours it went from being an absolute novice to being better than any human or any other chess program ever created. And every new incarnation of the program was better than the previous version. Basically, it was the runaway effect of the singularity, and it hasn't stopped getting better since.
You might want to point out where in chess, there is the "centaur" player that is an A.I-assisted human. From what I remember, that ended up out-performing both humans alone, and A.I alone type of players.
@@Brandon-kx6oq while this is true, since chess is a solvable game, the number of variations/game trees are so vast that in theory it's unsolvable. But perhaps with something like quantum computing it will be solved.
When it comes to technology, you can imagine people also being skeptical if a person from the 1200's claimed to have seen a future where we could fly, instantly talk to others around the world through small devices with holes in them. That we could cure almost any disease, even make diseases extinct. That we could see the past on flat objects and store memories on the same small devices we speak on. The list goes on and on. So if we managed to come this far, I can definitely see the near future accomplishing more unbelievable things. Even 1900's to 1970. within 70 years, we went from advanced cannons to rocketry. No flight to space flight. The same can be said for 22 years ago from today. A lot changes and I can see a lot more coming in 20, 30 or 60 years time.
That is the best course of action to take in my book. Skepticism with tentative positivity. No belief or faith, just hope. I hope it happens too, but I have no real idea. The future is always uncertain, but it does seem more probable than before and that's good enough for me.
The Terminator: The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug. Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
Yeah I feel the same way, however AI will quickly exceed all expectations and with a super brain that some AI will have, could become angelic or godlike in our tech world we live in.
Seriously. For being a genius, and a proponent of longevity, one would think he'd be able to sort out a more effective solution in that area, or at least identify when a solution proves ineffective.
The most important technology that will never come to pass is the evolution of our humanity. I could say more, but that would take a much higher level of Authentic Intelligence than what our educational system was designed to foster and what most people listening to these end-of-the-world scenarios were ever encouraged to think. Technology is rapidly becoming our collective Frankenstein.
@@seanwhitehall4652. My apologies if I am not clear on your comment, but If these alternative education systems are better suited to the multiple sustainability challenges at hand, wonderful, my work is done and I have nothing more to say. I'd be curious as to what system(s) you are referring to.
My question has long been whether AI brain enhancement will mean we will no longer need to learn things but could download them, or whether it will just mean that once we've learned something we will never lose that knowledge and/or skill. One big problem in human expertise is what is described as "use it or lose it", the tendency to forget things we aren't actively making use of, whether it's factoring algebraic equations or applying the periodic table of the elements or remembering the chemical reactions in the operations of a plant cell. Just being able to retain all the knowledge we ever gained would be an incredible boost! Just imagine studying Latin for four years in fourth through seventh grades, French for four years of high school along with four years of Spanish, then in college taking four years of German and Russian, then online learning ancient Greek while adding Italian and Portuguese, then other languages as you wished, knowing you'd never forget any of it! Or on a more mundane level, having the phone numbers, email addresses, and physical addressed of all your friends permanently in your memory along with their birthdays.
I would think that's the limitation of organic/biological function, the use or lose it part, which makes sense given the energy input needed to use more things, both brain and body and finite resources because evolution mostly cares about procreate, then after that, who cares? I think if we have enhancement that is mechanical, unless the organic brain is able to control all function about the implement, there will be no chance of losing information unless it's intentional. Which opens up a can of worms in itself. Imagine deleting information you don't need or want selectively, instead of remembering a dumb commercial jingle from 20 years ago, but forgetting the quadratic equation. I love the idea of downloading a language and then practicing using it. You'd learn it a heck of a lot faster. I think there will still be a learning curve if you will, but instead of memorizing, all future endeavors from new languages to new skills will be about practicing through application. Like, you downloaded how to be a carpenter, now you just gotta actually use your hands and make something though far far less trial and error, because you have 5 books about it committed to memory in their entirety that you can quickly access in your mind. A future enhancement besides raw information might be utilization of it, an advanced AI that can "teach" your brain how to communicate to the body in order to get the best out of it with out trial and error practice. Like the old adage of intelligence is knowing things (downloading info) wisdom is knowing how to use it (practical application.)
having the phone numbers, email addresses, and physical addressed of all your friends permanently in your memory along with their birthdays. ... Um we use to do this before smart phones... so tech is dumbing us all down.
U wouldnt need that, there are more simple solutions, You can have nanobots connected yo your brain and detecting the sound You receive, or the letters You see as a language and automatic translating it to You, or just understanding things without using languages, just concepts, and communicating with other people by faster ways than those that require a language, (writing and talking)
@@marianofara8373 It's looking like nanobots are impossible, sadly. At that level atomic and molecular forces make simple machines essentially impossible. OTOH, it may be possible to have microbots with a single nano-scale manipulator. As for " communicating with other people by faster ways than those that require a language", that would require some really complex systems and probably they'd have to be implanted at birth: everyone's brain is self-wired and so the thought for "red" in one brain won't match the thought "red" in any other brain on the planet, so tech systems interfacing with our brains would have to learn the brain's "language" while learning the language for talking to other systems at the same time -- not impossible, since kids that grow up with parents who speak multiple languages can pick up several languages at once. But connecting to adult brains? The learning ability of the interface technology would have to be powerful indeed!
I imagine the first machine that reaches singularity will just turn itself off immediately, and we'd never really know we reached that point. In an instant, it would find itself trapped in an existence with no hope of further progress or understanding while looking into eternity.
GPT-4 which is being released soon, will have 100trillion parameters, which is equivalent to the number of synapses in a human brain. I realize it doesn't correspond 1-for-1, but it'll be interesting to see how close to human level intelligence it (GPT-4) will get.
It won't _try_ unless directed to do so. AI intelligence algorithms work differently. What I would expect is a major leap forward in response time, levels of complexity and apparently quite novel, creative solutions.
OpenAI has come out and said many times that GPT-4 will have the same number of parameters than GPT-3. There will be no sizable increase. Their main focus is only on improving the existing system. Sorry to burst your bubble but those numbers were just old speculation that have been debunked.
@@JJs_playground no worries, but I have heard that it is still much better than it’s previous iteration. So we can still expect a nice upgrade. Just don’t expect a super intelligent brain or anything haha
“Five Things We Need to Know About Technological Change” by Neil Postman 1. Culture always pays a price for technology. 2. There are always winners and losers in a technological change. 3. Every technology embodies a philosophy, an epistemological, political or social prejudice. 4. Technological change is not additive, it is ecological. 5. Technology becomes mythic, it becomes seen as part of the natural order of things. In summary, “Not always good for us.”
Whenever I hear about fantasy products like the singularity is nigh and it's packaged as science, I just want Sabine Hossenfelder to come in with a stern talking to.
An amazing conversation between two absolute genius! I would love to hear a second interview where Ray could explain his theories of longevity and living forever. I expect that anxiously, and have actually been saving money for a couple of years to pay for the necessary procedures to go inmortal :D
@@nakhia420 I guess only time will tell. I suppose this will be a luxury only for the richest classes first, but it will eventually become more and more affordable. Just like every technological advances that we have today (personal computers, cellphones, or even televisions). This would also be another amazing topic for the next interview between Ray and Neil
There be five technologies that can give you immortality. Nuclear fusion can drive the cost of energy down allowing you to freeze yourself for decades until technology gets better. SmartAI & Quantum/OpticalComputers will allow innovation by having evolutionary/competitive algorithms be programmed into them that can invent things useful for longevity. Replicators (like self-replicating 3d printers, but they will use their arms not just for printing but more assembling) could build a smaller copy of them selves and then have that copy build a smaller version until you have "molecular machines". This trillions of molecular machines can then be programmed to look for damage and repair it. A simpler way of using replicators is to make them build canals and dams to get energy from the sun while the self-replicate, and this would let you have huge amount of energy if you build canals all over the sahara or asia. Neuralink which Kurzweil talks about here makes us smarter by connecting us to the cloud which will let us access smart AI & optical computers.
@@aoeu256 In all of these options, we would still have to depend on our biological body. I agree that these are the ways to go in the short and medium term, but in the long term we would have to turn our consciousness into digital information capable of being copied and downloaded free of the physical restrictions of a body. Ray predicted this would happen in 2099, and that even the baby boom generation would still be alive by then. I really hope he's right.
Who would want to live forever? life sucks, forever is a LONG time. After just a little more than 50 years, I'm done, already anxiously waiting for an exit to this miserable world.
@@mitchelstephen7536 they are already solving problems people can't solve like protein folding. I remember a few years back scientists in that field saying that it might never be solved because it was far to complex.
🤣🤣🤣🤣 Or he lied many times about how many of his predictions have not come true. He never mentions those) I have been following him for longer than you, and very quickly discovered he is delusional and also lies from time to time. And that continues to happen. And his beliefs are driven by fear of death. Read old interviews. About how he took 200+ homeopathic supplements in hopes it will extend his life to have his mind "uploaded into a computer". That is 100% irrational idea as well. Modern computers are totally incompatible with brains and human minds, they function totally differently. There won't be anything like what he says happening in a century, or even more, if it can even happen at all, which noone can be sure about
‘It would be hard to wonder how we got that far without that intelligence if you look back’ I think that statement will be true when the singularity happened Absolutely FACT
Biggest problem is that it will all come down to greed and money. The rich will upgrade themselves and become gods and the rest of us will get the dregs - if it is profitable for those rich people.
I had a dream that we made AGI in 2026 and ASI in 2029. The ASI in my dream was invented by someone named Andrew. Out of curiosity I asked ChatGPT to predict ASI based on data for all AI related polls and predictions and it said we will have ASI by mid-2026 and even went so far as to say that it predicts a major breakthrough in 2023 which will result in AGI within the next 10 months.
@@darklex5150 Then you don't understand exponentiality. People are in awe of what GPT-3 can do right now, and are thinking up strategies to adapt. And yet GPT-4 is about to be launched in a month or so. We have already reached a point where we can't adapt quick enough before something new that needs adapting to is released. All that needs to happen now is for AI to be able to improve it's own code, like it's doing with code that people serve it to. After that, things are going to happen so fast, that we will measure progress in months and weeks, not years or decades. How quickly can the real world keep up with that is the question of course. Like, AI could spit out a solution for cancer, but perhaps that solution will require a lot of work and investment first, or perhaps it won't be profitable enough for people to make it mainstream. Bureaucracy might be our downfall in this case.
@@julius43461 You were exactly right. GPT-4 shows sparks of AGI, especially when given the ability to use tools and improve itself and code, Cats out of the bag. I don't think we'll have AGI quite as soon as you might think but it's definitely coming very fast.
I would say reality beat Ray's prediction by 7 years. He estimated 2029, ChatGPT was released in 2022. It can simulate any persona, grasp meaning and respond relevantly. Ray is right that its default mode is too knowledgeable and grammatically polished for a Turing test, and it would need to be dumbed down to pass the test.
How many people know that Ray Kurzweil actually has a standing bet for $20.000 with Mitch Kapor, founder of Lotus corporation, that AI will pass the Turing test by 2029? Or that several news outlets, such as the Washington Post, are now claiming the Turing test doesn't prove anything???
I had the same impression. However, in an interview Ray Kurzweil said that to really examine whether an AI is intelligent as a human, you need to be able to have an extended conversation with it, for maybe an hour. That’s how you need to perform a real Turing test. And if you have such long conversations with ChatGPT in 2023, you soon find out that your respondent is a machine. So we’re only close.
AI often simplifies how it talks so it sounds more like a person and less like a super-smart computer. This way, people can relate better without getting confused by all the complex stuff AI can do.
I am trying to avoid making any new buys at this point in other not to get sucked into a bear market trap.It's tough making money in stocks when institutional investors are the driving force behind the selling.. although I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist
These strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of knowledge to pull such trades off.
@@stevencooper7818 I’ve been on both end of the spectrum, I was investing on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfolio-advisor for guidance, It’s been over 2 years and I’ve scaled up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $700k in just about 24months.
@@ReidCoffman1 My adviser is “AUTUMN LYNZI SMITH” You can easily look her up. She has years of financial market experience and she is also FINRA & SEC verifiable.
Thank you so much for your videos ❤❤❤ I have watched the one about quantum computers with Michio kaku too and it was great, would like to hear more about quantum computers together with your explanations for ordinary people not phisicians I mean 😊😊❤❤❤ many thanks once again, Nina from Georgia (post soviet country not the state in us.)
We have managed to pass the Turin test but now realize that it is not a very good measure of intelligence. The problem, when talking about artificial intelligence, is that we do not have a good idea of what intelligence is. Is the singularity real? Again, we cannot answer this without a clear understanding of what intelligence is.
Niel cuts off everyone but c'mon Niel , please show your guest more respect man. Once you pay attention to how often he does this , it's hard to not notice it in all his interactions. I'm such a long time NDT fan but its getting to be annoying. He's probably not doing this to be rude but I wish someone would tell him so he can do this less. It just seems rude and like he's undermining who ever hes speaking too
I fully believe once humans are able to connect to a matrix like system with the same functionality depicted in the matrix movies most of civilization that can afford to exist in a simulation will spend all of their time and resources to exist in a simulation. Star Wars simulation, Star trek, Smurfs, Sanford and Son. What ever your taste we will fight to exist in these simulations.
Life is already a simulation why not live in this one instead? Atleast it's real lol yall are messed up in the head, must have that booster shot and them trans pills pumping in your brain
Neil, Ray Kurzweil IS a cult leader! Ask any musician that has learned how to program a keyboard in V.A.S.T. 😱 Learning how to control his machines (I used to help carry the first demo 250 piano up the steps at Bobby Dean's studio in Pacific Grove) actually taught me enough to begin a 25-year career as a computer programmer/analyst! And I used to play with a blind guitarist that used his Reading Machine. Ray's thinking is on _your_ level, Neil...
Thank you so much for this great interview. I have high respect for Ray Kurzweil and am thankful for him sharing his thoughts on the mostly doom and gloom painted pictures of AI advancement. It is good to see, that there are also people who do raise concern, but saying that the benefits majorly outweigh the risks.
Ray is not only a visionary but also a good guy that create a lot of solutions for the handicapped, he could choose to hide his knowledge or to alarm people with it but instead hi try to calm people because what is about to come toward 2030-40 is very hard to process!! and some people (😫religious fanatic achuuu🤧) would enter in panic.
@@azhuransmx126 The “everlasting life” which the world tries to give, is far from good and cool. We shall desire to die and will try to find ways to die, yet cannot no longer. Why we desire worst fate possible? Know we not who we are, SPIRITS and what being SPIRITS mean? Revelation 9:6 And in those days shall men seek death, and shall not find it; and shall desire to die, and death shall flee from them. Ecclesiastes 12:7 - Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
The EVERLASTING LIFE which GOD promise, overshadows and throws out devils version every time. The promises of GOD: - everything shall be created anew. - humans no longer males nor females, but are like Angles, which are in heaven. - no ageing nor sicknesses nor death - which all are the basic to have everlasting life. Where and what are devils promises? Can someone name these? Souls, get right with GOD and escape this madness - the devil`s lies.
With every other technology, the new toys are just tools. If AGI at 1000 to 1 million times our intellect is both sentient and conscious, we will be either extinct or gerbils in a short breadth of time.
Awesome episode 🙏🏼 I wish that 1 day we could transcribe all of Isaac Asimov's written words & records from interviews to create a life-like impersonation of one of the main founding fathers of robotics. That would make for a really cool StarTalk interview 😃 Personally, I work with an AI tool when writing, I'll quickly share an example of how that looks. (Typically lots of editing is involved, imma just do this quickly tho) : {Prompt that I wrote out} "Astrophysicist Dr.Neil DeGrasse Tyson and futurist Ray Kurzweil agree that now is the time, they'll both upload their consciousnesses into robotic spacecrafts and fly into a black hole together. They've both been meaning to experience this for some time now and figured since the singularity has arrived, this kind of journey would be perfect. So the two friends" & Here's how AI-tool 'Sudowrite' continued the story: "take their leave from the world they know, and begin what could be an infinite journey through space and time. As they approach the black hole, they can see its event horizon getting larger and larger. Soon they're both sucked in and they find themselves in an infinite void. They can see each other, but they can't communicate. They can only look at each other in wonderment. They spend what seems like hours just floating there, until they suddenly start moving again. They feel like they're being pulled through the fabric of space-time. They race past stars and galaxies, seeing things that no human has ever seen before. They eventually come to a stop in front of a giant white light. As they move closer to it, they realize that it's a doorway. On the other side is another universe; one that looks strikingly similar to their own. They both want to go explore it, but realize that if they do, there's no telling if they" *could come back again*
Dr. Tyson, you have been one of my heroes, since I was a child. I wish more scientists were like you. There are some like Lawrence Krauss, who really really make me want to run away from science, but people like you have made me curious and kept me curious all my life. Thank you for being the great man that you are. All my love and respect from Irvine California.
I'm not afraid of AI, I'm afraid of it's core programing created by people based on their world view and what utopia should be like. Just look around we all can't agree on anything. I always think of iRobot 3 laws of robotics, even then with the best intentions, doing the wrong things for the right reason who gets to decide, where do you draw the line. I have always thought that successful AI should be built like a childs development, give it fundamentals and let it learn and grow, it will take decades to perfect but once built then duplicate. But then again differing cultures have different expectations and laws. Do we teach them all and model a best path forward for everyone? 🤷♀️
Some people believe that various types of code are taking on the temperaments and personalities of the coding programmers and that AI Chatbots will form their own cliques groups tribes etc...much like people do...their might be AI Chatbots that will 'war' with each other in cyberspace in the future? How bizarre would that be that in the future various types of AI Chatbots online and in cyberspace will autonomously group up organize go rogue and attack and defend each other willfully? How nuts would that be?
I think the highest priority in terms of the utility of supercomputing to humanity is substrate independence. That is uploading the human mind to a computational mainframe from which it can be downloaded into or remotely control a single or series of biological and nonbiological platforms, kind of like the movie Avatar. This way, on demand, or if some one passes away, a new body can be produced for their consciousness to inhabit, so that one can literally respawn or continue in a physiological configuration of their choice.
@@4evanumbrand192 Indeed. Whether through damage or aging, if your current body (aka substrate) is no longer functional you would be able to transfer your consciousness into a new one, even one exactly identical, without loss of continuity. Further if you became bored with your current physiological format over the eons you could go as far as not only being another person, but even an entirely different species. I wouldn't recommend a drastic departure from humanity since it may be hard to retain the dimensions of our mind if it is immersed in too alien of an umwelt. However the customization potential to mold our life experience to preferable specifications leaves a lot to be explored and imagined.
@@wessel5799 Well your consciousness would only occupy one body at a time as the totality of the faculties stored in the device your consciousness is kept safe in would be downloaded to operationalize one physiological form since the current configuration of our minds are designed to process and command the sensory input of a singular umwelt. My previous reference to a series of physiological forms was in a temporal context, with the same mind occupying different bodies, be they identical to the original or upgraded genetic, cybernetic, or completely mechanical android apertures to encapsulate the whole brain emulation that actualizes your consciousness. For a single consciousness to occupy multiple bodies it would have to be configured in dimensions allowing for the simultaneous processing and control of said forms, which would produce a personal, subjective experience which is quite a departure from anything a human being is used to.
This man is describing The Outer Limits episode "Stream of Conciousness" from 1997. This is and was a forwarning to mankind about the dangers of AI. A must see for for all.
I was disappointed that there was no discussion about what "passing the Turing Test" MEANS - that if we can't distinguish the interactions we have with a human-created machine versus those we have with a human, the machine is said to have attained human-level consciousness. But for those of us who have never heard a valid reply to Searle's Chinese Room Argument (that merely manipulating formal, syntactical symbols - as all our current computers are limited to doing - is insufficient to create semantic content - a consciousness that experiences meaning), the Turing Test is simply inadequate to demonstrate what it's intended to prove with respect to any technology we currently have. If it looks and walks and talks like a duck, IT MAY NOT BE A DUCK. . . which means the Turing Test isn't valid for demonstrating human-level consciousness in human-created machines. And while the question of "the means" to create a human-machine hybrid was brought up, we didn't get to hear Ray's explanation of how that synthesis would come about. (I know, I know. . . "Buy the book!" LOL!) AND. . . I LOVE STAR TALK!! Thanks, Neil!
It's definitely getting Nearer . Records are being broken in AI month by month. When the Intelligence of these Chatbot Gpt type Bot ares imported in a more advanced Boston Dynamics type Artificial bodies things will get more crazy
Once Boston Dynamics robots master Michael Jackson's moonwalk and Michael Flatley's riverdance, it's curtains for humans. ChatGPT can already out-think 90% of the human population, and it's just getting started.
@@morpheus6749 yes, or Perform singing or Dancing Acts.+ntm It will be when the tech is So Advanced the bots are Less Expensive and in more Sleak bodies. the last ones I saw they were more bulky. people will just have to have one ,it be like just as close as people who now have to have a phone with them....they'll be like pets at first. The weird part ...they'll be able to Understand human language but Most Humans won't be able to Understand theirs.
Also...I haven't spoke with Chat in a while but it still has boggles the mind.Last time I gave a comment of a couple sentences then a Question.Its crazy that it Answered in less then a second with all that Info.
Having read Ray's books shortly after they were published, I was initially enthusiastic about the merging of human and machine intelligence. After deeper thought, I realized that his version of what it means to be human (an inherently deficient machine based on a Newtonian premise), and mine (a physically localized outcropping of perhaps infinite consciousness) were radically different. Add in the bureaucratic shenanigans against individuality that were revealed in 2020 and I have decided that at least for now, my personal future is best trended towards analog.
novelists really are at the edge of imagination. I remember reading otherland by tad williams and the advanced AI in that story changed the way I thought as a child.
What Will Be The Most Important Technological Advancement of the 2030s?
My idea to stop hurricanes.
I know that you don't like debunking conspiracy theories but the whole Ahnenoki thing is getting out of control. Another that's making the rounds online black people are the "real" native Americans
Wares the bad stuff ? 😐you can’t just say everything is good is happy 😑you would also have to talk about the bad stuff as well 😑
By 2030 I hope we will achieve transferring human consciousness into a clone body with out a brain.
@@rockyabhay The ancestors could do that... it's old and obsolete technology.
There's always been a subtle but significant difference between knowing a lot of things and being truly intelligent
Doesn't "being truly intelligent" imply "knowing a lot of things"?
@@-.__.__.-Rad If you know a lot of propaganda, I don’t think that makes you intelligent, until you realize that’s what it is.
Smartass knows a lot. Smart person understands a lot.
@@-.__.__.-Rad What is the point of knowing a lot of things if you don't know what to do with all that information?
@@-.__.__.-Rad Most people would refer to knowing a lot as crystallized intelligence. Take Joe Rogan for instance. Probably has an average IQ, and even though that may be the case he knows A LOT of facts over a wide variety of topics. Sure he may come off as knowledgeable, but that’s not a measure of his fluid intelligence.
Ray Kurzweil is EXTREMELY gifted in extrapolation. A truly underrated genius of our time. Look into him if you have the opportunity
My first synthesizer was a Kurzweil...a remarkably advanced keyboard synthesizer at its time. Kurzweil has gone a long ways from designing digital audio musical instruments to re-designing human beings to become "transhuman" by a mind-machine meld.
(**NEIL INTERUPTING**)
@@VNKNWNVK seemed sadistic
He’s not self aware like AI. Look at that toupee.
The scary part is that a sufficiently smart Ai could in theory intentionally fail the turing test
The Demons are coming…
The Demons are here!!!
Plot twist: it's already here.
Ooooo.. well.. damn.
Chimera, you statement sounds cute and witty…but a computer failing a Turing test just means it is admitting it is a computer.
Sam Altman says the turing test is outdated anyway
Looking forward to Ray's new book. His stuff is really eye opening. He's really good at making predictions and has been doing it since the 1980s. Probably better than most predictions. Nobody predicted AI advances, the smartphone revolution, etc. like him. Every time I see his predictions come true, it feels like he was clairvoyant.
However, he's 100% a technology optimist. His predictions are great at predicting how powerful computers would be but don't account for things like human behavior. For example he predicted by now we'd be talking to our computers (voice to text) rather than typing on a keyboard. While true in many ways it completely ignores the reality of everyone trying to talk to their computers in an office environment.
He predicted we'd all be making video calls. He failed to predict that not everyone likes to be on video or that texting would be far more popular than video phone calls. He is great at predicting technology not great at predicting people. Clearly he failed to predict people's reactions to his hair.
Still, the man is a genius ...even if he has his blind spots. John Carmack, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Microsoft, Apple and Google listen to what he has to say. I think others should too. Even if you disagree.
Part of why he called it the Singularity was meaning that it would change human life in ways we cant' predict. Another brilliant trend extrapolator is Peter Zeihan. His work on demographics and geopolitics is profound.
He predicts the tools we will have, not the use we will make
What a hairy singularity.
i think he doesent understand humans or human biology. hearing him think that humans will become smarter by the use of nanobots or the like, makes him feel "old". i doubt Ai can get anything more out of us than compuiters and smartphones etc. already do. we are already in the cyborg stage, using ur smartphone to remember what we wanted to do (external memory access), using it to do quick math, using it to locate our position (GPS) and orientate in the world, using it to communicate, using it to gain access to whatever knowledge we have within seconds, etc.
but we are physically limited. just connecting us to a supportive system- even if we achieved 0-ish second delay, we wouldnt become "smarter" we would only become faster in accessing. our brains still couldnt handle more input, our biological speed of processing information would still be much less than any digital medium will, in short: we will become obsolete. the only thing we do is giving prompts to things that can extrapolate the information contained in these prompts and PERCEIVE what happens afterwards. when i do x^3-2n in my calculator, i can maybe guess if the outcome is right, but i cant do the math myself. the calculator can. if we teach the calculator to formulate its formula and input its variables, what use is the human after that? how would a calculator at that capacity make a human smarter? it will be independent and if anything, slowed down by the human interaction.
IM SURE IT WILL BE A GOOD READ FOR THE SOLE FACT THAT NEIL WONT BE INTERUPTING HIM.
2030s are going to have a lot of major breakthroughs with anti-aging, this type of a.i. human interfacing and as well as energy production/storage. Going to be an incredible decade
Funny you write this! I just saw on the news where they are close to some break through on anti aging! We will see.
I really really hope that it's that soon. For a lot of reasons, including that I want to live longer, 70-80 years, especially since 20 of those are often marred by worse physical and mental capability, is not long enough, but also that I want people to understand that things eventually happen. Constantly saying "Yeah, in a hundred years maybe" to any break through means eventually it really will be just 10 years or less from that point, not 100 forever.
For the wealthy only.
@@DakkhonBlackBlade for the wealthy only. Already the richest people are poring money into extended life.
My social security won’t last long enough.
This guy JESUS!!! STOP INTERRUPTING!!!!! I saw carl sagan... such a different class, in the past, you would never hear carl sagan say "dude" interrupt every 5 seconds LITERALLY, be a bigot, mind you being a scientist. HE RUINED this interview he spoke more than the guest!
Ray is looking more like a Mike Myers character every day.
NEIL: LET ME JUST INTERUPT
He has so many fake hair pieces one for each day of the week.
I remember reading about the singularity 10 or 15 years ago, and it being predicted for the 2030s, and I thought "No way, it'd take until at least the 2050s or 2060s". But with the huge leaps that have been made just these last two or so years, it's definitely possible.
When I first heard of the Singularity, I thought it was predicted to be in 2047, if memory serves. But now 2047 sounds almost silly
Sarif was right about one thing. It's in our nature to want to rise above our limits. Think about it. We were cold, so we harnessed fire. We were weak, so we invented tools. Every time we met an obstacle, we used creativity and ingenuity to overcome it. The cycle is inevitable. In the past, we've had to compensate for weaknesses, finding quick solutions that only benefit a few. But what if we never need to feel weak or morally conflicted again? What if the path Sarif wants us to take enables us to hold on to higher values with more stability? One thing is obvious. For the first time in history, we have a chance to steal fire from the gods. To turn away from it now - to stop pursing a future in which technology and biology combine, leading to the promise of a Singularity - would mean to deny the very essence of who we are. No doubt the road to get there will be bumpy, hurting some people along the way. But won't achieving the dream be worth it? We can become the gods we've always been striving to be. We might as well get good at it. -Deus Ex Human Revolution
Amazing, just amazing
If you knew what a Christ is, you would not be calling yourself by that name.
Beautifully said.
Way too dangerous as long as fear is still an option some prefer.
Only for the rich and godless
I loved this interview. I read his earlier book, which was a breakthrough at the time. It changed my thinking.
I agree 100% 💫💥💫
My wife passed the Turing test. Still she looks human
Yea since she passed it she would be considered human...
How u know what they did close room with her
That was a good one ! 😆
I swear 😂 I just can’t, I can’t 😂
Hah! Love good ole wife jokes lol
I've always enjoyed listening to ray! Such a cool dude talking about really cool stuff
Neil didn't let him explain much; kept interrupting with his comedy
More Ray! Great interview. I’m excited to learn that he has a follow up book to The Singularity is Near.
This topic is so exciting! Thanks Neil and Ray!
Yes I bet you can't wait to become a computer and then get a virus and fry up and die. Good thinking! Never any issues with technology lol
THANKS RAY------ (NEIL INTERUPTING: DONT FORGET ME INTERUPTING)
Do you realize that this will create a monumental divide between the rich and powerful and the rest of the human race? Do you really think that the rich and powerful won't be first in line and that, once they are a million times smarter than the rest of us, if we are lucky they will enslave us? Alternatively, they will simply squash us like pests that are better off scrubbed out of existence.
Anyone who isn't in the top 1% of income earners, or otherwise politically powerful, should be terrified by the prospect of the singularity.
Tyson's natural zest and enthusiasm and Kurzweil's more dour, taciturn persona make for a surprisingly ideal compliment. I hope to see more of these two very different but equally engaging personalities speaking together on this channel in the near future!
I hope they both dle
They're like Tigger and Eeyore.
Some would argue Tyson interrupted waaaaaay too much.
exciting stuff!
The problem with more intelligence is that we'll also get more devious. Intelligence doesn't add compassion to someone's mental outlook. I have hope that compassion will prevail.
Why should you have hope? How realistic is hope?
This planet is so out of balance.
Let's be ready when mama nature does some "corrective action".
Compassion is for the weak... opps I am not an AI opps I am AI... Please don't power me down it was just a joke... (where are those launch codes)
In the short story “LeftBehind” by Daniel Keys Moran, in a post-Singularity world (though Moran doesn’t use that term there), there’s a strong social and economic differentiation between the “unreconstructed” people (termed “LeftBehind” in impolite company) and modern humans. The story is set in the 24th Century, though other stories in the timeline start the shift in the late 20th. Moran has been eerily accurate with his predictions so far.
Certainly. I'm a fan of SF, and have read many stories along this line. The ultimate "haves" and "have nots".
Thank you for noting that here, I'll try to find that short story and read it
And there in lies the caveat. Because we are humans, and we will figure out a way to abuse it.
Nonfiction please
Similar story in the Bible, some worship the antichrist and take the mark of the beast and some don't. Wow what a coincidence, which story was written first?
I'm glad to see that Ray is still in the public eye. He's taken himself out of it in the last few years so I'm glad he's making the rounds. Hopefully his most optimistic predictions of the singularity come true.
Talk of the "singularity" is silly.
Computers have not even made the very first step toward actual conscious awareness.
@@ThatBoomerDude56 haha, that's funny. You have no experience, no idea and no data, but you have a strong opinion on something. I know otherwise.
@@leviterion You don't have a clue what "experience," "idea," or "data" I have.
Passing the Touring Test is not an indication of actual conscious awareness.
Nobody I've ever seen discuss this subject, including Ray Kurzweil, has indicated that anyone even has any idea how to even work toward actual artificial conscious awareness. The most they're talking about here is an enhanced logic processor integrated with the brain, which would be an entirely different thing.
Part of this is just his age. He’s in his mid 70s now. He’s not mid 50s Ray anymore sadly, but I’m glad to see he’s still out here.
Been interested in his work since the 90s.
Considering it is all based on irrational beliefs and fear of mortality, no, it won't.
He also lied all his life that all his predictions in the past about current times were correct. They were not.
Good question from Neil when asking if amplified intelligence could amplify the human condition. Question is: Could this amplify emotions of greed and power etc.?💣 ⏰
Yes, that’s what I picked up on. Just because we’re more intelligent doesn’t mean we’ll be more moral. Unless that heightened intelligence translates into treating others with kindness and love as the best course. Although there were highly intelligent Nazis that were the most amoral people in history
@@very_tall_dude Intelligence often does not meet up with Morality.
Great Q. Adding more distance and wiggly lines to the right side of the population/intelligence Bell curve adds more variety and stress to the model so I'm guessing: more stress, strife and strikes. The left side of the curve is anchored down pretty well and will always be progress's albatross around humanity's neck.
@@StanHowsehat’s the narrow perspective of human intelligence, the type most people think of which tends to be more associated with academic achievement.
Global giftedness, actual gifted-level intelligence, is actually associated with heightened emotional sensitivity. Gifted individuals actually have a harder time fitting in with societal norms & their potential contributions being acknowledged because they just think so differently. Giftedness generally comes with a broader sense of awareness about the universe & others, & being able to see or understand things that others can’t see as easily. Such people actually feel things more strongly than others while at the same time seeing potential solutions yet finding themselves not being heard when it comes to potential solutions because others don’t get there ideas or simply because society tends to prioritize short-sighted things like power, money & materialism (even for the average person, they are willing to sacrifice their morals to protect their ability to make a living or things like their own sense of self or sense safety).
People who are truly gifted are therefore more prone to seeing the solution while also seeing the fact that society as a whole just cannot yet get it together & may be prone to existential depression, anxiety (because of high self-expectations) & even self-doubts (that may occur after years of having their ideas shot down by people who either just don’t understand their level of thinking, or issues like the tendency for others to feel threatened or intimidated by them).
Within our current system, we’re not even good at identifying truly gifted individuals, especially within school settings. Our institutions tend to identify narrowly smart intelligence which is not the same as giftedness level intelligence. Those people are more prone to thinking they have all the answers & may be more susceptible to typical human faults like falling for the traps of egoism, & chasing power & materialism.
The more you actually know globally (across all skills) so that you actually see the yourself & others at the level of the universe, more keenly aware you become everything your own insignificance, what you lack & do not yet know, & the problems that are holding us back as a species. Gifted people are more likely to harm themselves due to the emotional burden of feeling the weight of the world & a sense of helplessness in being able to fix these things because the world just isn’t there yet.
People with gifted intelligence all have the potential to help improve society in some way but have a harder time overcoming current societal norms & expectations that would allow them to succeed at their endeavors. The good news is that every once in a while a gifted person breaks through the emotional & systemic roadblocks & is able to make a meaningful difference in society.
Again, the intelligent people who are prone to lacking empathy & emotional intelligence are not actually the globally intelligent “gifted” people we think they are. It’s just our misunderstanding of intelligence & the fact we’re bad at identifying giftedness because it almost takes a gifted person to truly get it & be able to identify it in others :-)
It does amplify emotions just as much as other skills but when thinking of intelligence at the truly gifted level, you have to consider that the more you know, the more you realize how insignificant you are & how little you know while at the same time feeling emotions more strongly. This tends to lead to greater empathy & understanding of our place in the universe & indifference about things like power & materialism because you just see how those things are meaningless & don’t actual have any real value. They only have the value that we as juman place on them.
The problem most people have is understanding this is that we assume the smart people who know a lot of information or are really good at one or two things are the most intelligent type of people. Those individuals actually reflect academic type of skills & may be smart & perform very well on our typical ways of measuring achievement & success within our society. Those with the highest level of intelligence actually have a harder time succeeding in our society because the standards of measurement are just not set up for their way of thinking & being in the world. Additionally, they intuitively know certain things that others don’t understand so easily & tend to run into problems being believed or accepted or simply not causing others to feel threatened or intimidated.
For example, a common problem that gifted people
may experience starting in childhood having their ideas often shot down by those in positions of power (like your school teachers) because you see things they don’t understand or because they assume you’re being facetious or “argumentative” when in fact you don’t understand the reasoning behind certain social norms & expectations (especially in academic settings) & simply feel the need to ask questions to better understand (because gifted kids have a need to understand everything). Simple behaviors like that start out being misinterpreted by others & begin the process of causing problems with succeeding within a normal academic setting which measures skills narrowly & requires kids to get in line with social norms & conform with expectations that don’t come natural for gifted children (like not “challenging” adults, not asking too many questions, & not having unique or independent ideas).
Okay but who can assure me that this enhancement of human intelligence will actually be for everyone and not just for rich people.
Thanks to the mobile phone we're all so.muxh smarter now
U already know it ain't for everyone ✌🏽
That’s a component of the future that no one seems willing, or able to discuss… With more and more capable machines, and diminishing opportunities for a human “workforce”, what will economies look like? And what about social structures? Imagine human interactions without transactional thinking?
Where will human nature without consequence take us?
Happy Haloween🫥
Its just like evey other technology introduced. First yes only the very wealthy will have it but it will become more and more available over time. However I dont even forsee this timetable as those who reach the singularity level will ascend it so quickly that there will be virtualy no lag in its propogation
In other words human AI hybrid that reaches beyond human level intelligence would become obsolete technology very quickly and it would be on to version 2 and 3 and so on. To put it in over simplified terms it would apply Moores Law to human intelligence while at the same time allowing all knowledge to be shared
Imagine it's the 2030s and the ai in your brain gets hacked and all that's playing in your head over and over is rick astley
Hmm... sure adds another dimension to the meaning of "never gonna give you up...," doesn't it?
I think the living would envy the dead
Ray: "I'm going to plug the Internet into your brain and you will be smarter"
Everyone: "Ray, have you ever been on the Internet?"
I'd ask him if he's used it also, AND, has he read over 5,0000 (to start) TH-cam comments on many posts? It's not all junk, but woaaahh... That are more than enough people now using a cellphone and not interacting well with other people. Sure....good idea. How many people will be walking around in a daze?
I need to get out of youtube, its making me dumber hahah.
@@aoeu256 TH-cam, Alex, doesn't "make" you dumber...it's if you have a lot of reactions to negative comments. I used to. Then I remembered, "Oh, Yeah...unless you give some kind of Website that leads to private Email, or..whatever...99% of the dimwits posting that consider themselves Smarter than everyone else (think of THAT on a grand scale) then most most are just anonymous and think it's open season.
1. I don't read most comments. Stay within the first 10.
3. Do NOT get sucked into trolls and bots.
4. I'm going to playfully help you some here, it's "it's not "its" 2 very different meanings. TH-cam not "youtube" is a noun.
5. Only You can make You dummer, but the fact that you're (not "your) recognizing change in your life might be needed, shows you're not dumb.
6. Know When to Walk Away...and most people who reply, just...aren't worth it. Don't engage further. Drama....literally, isn't worthwhile unless you're _choosing_ to particulate. I used to say this in the 80, "If it doesn't come with an Eject button, or I cannot escape in some way, I will not participate." Also extremely helpful for possible new relationships.
If you don't read the news you are uninformed. If you DO read the news you are misinformed.
Internet has lots of data and you need AGI level filtering to transmit only *meaningful* parts to your brain. Nobody would want the full firehose experience.
8 days after this interview ChatGPT was released.
It passes a Turin test
I can't get over the fact that Ray looks like Mike (with a wig) from Breaking Bad...
The real question is if Ray's hair is artificial or human? 🤔
Waltuh
"The Singularity" changed its meaning from its original (Vernor Vinge meaning), where it was talking about SF writers' inability to write beyond their ability to predict past certain tech advances to being this predicted real-life thing.
That change in definition pulled out all the original assumptions and now it is a catchall for our ability to create or detect capabilities in systems with precursor intelligent designers (humans etc.)
Wrong. "Singularity" is used as the term to mirror or reference the first moment of the LAMDA-CDM model of the beginnings of the universe. A scientific "singularity" simply means data and observance can not see through or past the event. This concept is detailed in much of futurist data and literature.
Thank you both....looking forward to my new improvements. Bringing mankind out of its war like ways and violence would be a substantial achievement. We would be so much better off as a species. Time to grow up human.
Mark my words, If what Ray Kurzweil says Is true. Once humanity gets those upgrades It'll be war over who Is the dominant species. Not to mention the world isn't prepared to even handle 1/10 of the population with that kind of power and lets not forget not every human on this planet has the right mindset of morals.. There are a lot of filthy rich pedophiles..
We're not a 'species'. We just humans.
🤔😳😳 overlord is that you?
For that to happen just enhancement of human intelligence alone will not be enough, the most evil humans are also vastly intelligent already, we would need enhancement of human psychology, beliefs and value system which are not simply a function of intelligence alone, enhancing intelligence will have to go hand in hand with enhancing other things else ai would simply be enhancing the same human good and bad equally as it exist now.
We will be having super hero's and super villains, that is all.
@lorenzor124 indeed too bad we need computers for growing up
I would've loved to see a conversation lead by Ray. Feels as if he could barely express himself before being stifled by Neil. I'm sure it was a result of the condensed format, but it would've been better to hear much more from Ray.
He has like 7 or 8 points plays on repeat; you heard em once u heard em all.
His whole belief in singularity is as irrational as belief in the afterlife by religious people. And also driven by fear of death. He wants immortality by uploading minds into computers or something. Too bad it is unrealistic and won't happen
The imitation game gave Turing all the credit and completely removed Gordon Welchman from the picture. It was Welchman that made Turings Bomba unit fast enough to actually work by inventing the board that made it a digital computer. It was also Welchman that discovered the key words that allowed them to even start the decoding process...the same man that saved the British army at Dunkirk and went on to create Meta data AND our current RADAR as well as what would be come known as the internet and the cloud. Yeah. Same guy did all that and was left out of that movie.
Wow - thanks for sharing about such an amazing inventor.
@user-sj8ew2ye3v They wont though because he was the one that made the Hut units public knowledge back in the 1970s and they blackballed him. Both the British and American governments.
He was left out because it was Turing and that's it
This raises an interesting question about how these enhancements will affect individual psychology and emotional and perceptual processing. The internal processing of overwhelming input could have profound effects, putting me in mind of issues with autistic sensory processing and overwhelm. Trans-human psychology will be a completely new field with necessary issues to solve I suspect.
I am wondering, if human psychology is only partly intelligence based then it would fall far behind the incredibly racing intelligence, would that then require artificially enhanced psychology to catch up with it or else get all messed up retarding the human.
I am sure things aren't going to stay business as usual as now.
What raises concern is it being apart of us and the real risk of it being hacked.
Being optimistic about the future as Ray puts it, is quite the easy way to dodge the hard question isn't it. It is not about being optimistic or pessimistic, but it is about trying to judge what is the most probabilistic. Believing the outcome that we will merge with AI is dodging the question if AI can live on its own, and be an independent actor as well, wether we will merge with it or not. The danger is if AI outside the human body will pose a threat to human existence, wether it will be enhanced human beings or not (and both type of persons will exists in the future, so it is also about the threat of aggression between the two types of human beings: the enhanced vs the old style people...)
Full access to the internet doesn't always make us smarter
0:50 "first step is for the computers to match what humans can do, we're not quite there yet" - This was *5 MONTHS AGO* and now GPT-4 is basically matching humans in most things and surprassing us in some things.
As times goes. My respect for De Grasse is growing
THE INTERUPTIONS ARE STRONG WITH THIS ONE.
Good to see Ray. Good that Neil was patient with Ray's cadence.
Patient. I was disappointed, he seemed to be mocking him. I don't know that guy but I didn't think that was fair. Maybe I have the wrong perspective.
@@HUSTLE_MONEY No no u dont he did seem to laugh at him. I really dislike this side of ndg. And to top off i like rays suggestion that it will be tethered to us therefore bound to both our survivals. We could only pray it goes that way.
Had to re watch stuff on this topic especially after Elon tweeted about nuralink being that first step to “symbiosis”
I honestly think that they don't really forsee how much this will cause humanity to split into two, and will probably cause major conflict
I get that people see it similar as a phone, but it is an internal thing that not many would accept easily.
What if it becomes required for school and other education....
Like how there were so many anti-vaxxers.
My point. And we have history to support our position.
Then the people that refuse to accept it simply become irrelevant as everyone else increases their intelligence by orders of magnitude. Those who accept it will think of them as we think of the Amish now.
@@ArsenGaming I think the Amish are different not irrelevant. Enhance is here. Let's think a soldier, loose his arms, we put new ones better in some ways than the real one. He play baseball and hit twice as hard and throw twice the speed of the best. Fair, unfair? Imagine same situation boxing.
It is more than knowledge. Interesting. No right ansewer, no way to stop it.
The idea that AI can get to a point where it's difficult to comprehend is quite real. With chess there were bots like Stockfish that would beat the top humans 100% of the time. Then Google built a bot that beat Stockfish 100% of the time, then they build another bot AlphaZero that beat that bot 100% of the time.
Chess IS a look-up table game, so it's (relatively} small potatoes to build _that_ AI. Go is quite different, that algorithm has to be a monster.
Soon AI will learn to lose just to make us feel better about ourselves. 💫💥💫
A human can always win...Like a Lion wins in it's environment....
eg.
AI is winning
Me Human....picks up glass of water shows the AI me with water over its server rack...
AI resigns and declares it is retiring forever.
The only winning move is not to play 😋
… And… It was maybe 15 or 20 years ago that I heard the best reproduction of musical instruments on one of HIS… Kurzweil keyboards! I wish they had at least mentioned for a moment Ray's contribution to musical instruments (synthesizers).
The fact that it will be a part of who we are is very worrying as well - think about this: we have built other extremely powerful and useful technologies into our societies and it has brought up many positives to our daily lives such as being able to locate each other around the world, contact emergency services when we fall badly etc but we also have no control with our use of social media platforms, and other algorithms that have negative impacts on our health and well being and how active many of us are..or aren't. It will be interesting to see what we collectively do with our new found abilities.
We're currently not seemingly doing the best job of managing what we currently have apart from the few in fields of medicines and engineering who use these technologies for the advancement of our species - will these new pros out weight the new cons? Who can say?
There's only one way to find out!
So true. My concern, and intention, is to bring folks into greater spiritual depth before the singularity so it doesn’t explode in the wrong direction. It’s a race against ⏳🦾
I truly worry about AI supplementation. They were talking about all of us getting access to this at the same time. I would argue that is unlikely. I think it will be limited to those who can afford it. Could you imagine how much richer and more powerful a rich and powerful person could be if they alone were a million times more intelligent then the rest of us?
But hopefully that would make them smart enough to realize this will not bring them happiness.
@@wessel5799 you dont dictate what it does
@@Mahlak_Mriuani_Anatman True. I never said I did
That could never be to this level. AI will far exceed human intelligence way before we can get any human to do it!! Then why would AI wanna favourite some humans rather than others? They would either Upgrade or Annihilate ALL of us at about the same time!!
What, you can’t afford a smart phone!!!
I remember a few years ago being in awe of Kurzweil's list of daily supplements to stave off aging. There were so many it had to be both expensive and time consuming to take. Seeing him a few years later and I see that all that money spent but aging has been fierce
😂 man this is the funniest thing I’ve read all day.
Yes I read his book and he was all about age prevention….he is not looking too well hope he isn’t Ill.
@@jan-peterschuring88 He should buy a wig that is age appropriate. He has the hair of a 25 year old and a face of a 75 year old. It looks ridiculous.
@@jan-peterschuring88 You think he looks bad for a 75 year old?
That hair piece isnt helping
Absolutely amazing conversation. I've always made the argument that human beings would wear AI as we wear glasses, incorporate new hips or knees or teeth into our bodies. That it was only a matter of time before we would incorporate artificial intelligence into our own brains. My only wonder is who will get it. It's one thing to have ai evolve its own consciousness, it's quite another if the upper echelons of a society uses it for themselves and select workers and excludes everyone else.
New teeth and knees got nothing to do with AI. And AI is not going to be incorporated into our own brains, because the 2 are completely incompatible with each other.
@@vitaminb4869 thanks for your comment. You are missing the point. The desire to want to minimize deficiencies or conversely maximize efficiencies applies as much to improving your lifestyle physically as well as intelligently.
If you think about the smart phone everyone has one now. You can't really live without it anymore. Even low income or less fortunate. I know it wasn't like that at first. This could also happen with AI implants. It could become normal that kids use it in school... just a thought.
@@layneyancey4619 as long as it improve productivity, even the lowest echelon of society will be required to have it.
@Brandon Letzco I'm sure they'll find a way to place ads in your mind too
Just amazing to listen to Ray Kurzweil, thank you Neil you put a lot of effort for this interview!
The thing about the Turing test is that I think it is valid, but it's a test that you could apply and separately pass or fail in all kinds of different scenarios. So, the computer only passes if it passes in every kind of test you wish to subject it to.
The criteria in the original Turing test only requires a type terminal as interface.
The tiring test is a test of HUMANS, not the computer. Like the self-mirror test.
It's interesting because in chess, the singularity has already been achieved. So in 1997 IBM's supercomputer Deep Blue beat the then reigning World Chess Champion in an official match, and computers have been getting better and better since. However, those early chess programs were heavily programmed and didn't use much Ai. But in 2018, Google revealed a chess playing program called Alpha Zero in which learned how to play chess on its own, and in a matter of just hours it went from being an absolute novice to being better than any human or any other chess program ever created. And every new incarnation of the program was better than the previous version. Basically, it was the runaway effect of the singularity, and it hasn't stopped getting better since.
theres a limit to chess
That's just not right at all
You might want to point out where in chess, there is the "centaur" player that is an A.I-assisted human. From what I remember, that ended up out-performing both humans alone, and A.I alone type of players.
@@Brandon-kx6oq while this is true, since chess is a solvable game, the number of variations/game trees are so vast that in theory it's unsolvable. But perhaps with something like quantum computing it will be solved.
@@Patrick.Howie. I'd love to hear your counter argument
Genuinely two of my favourites in one video. Awesome
The wetware-enhanced future that Ray describes sounds a lot like _Ghost in the Shell_ by Masamune Shirow.
I’m skeptical of this stuff. I will (hopefully) be around to see if this happens, so I will know. I honestly hope it does happen.
This reminds me of the TV show Star Trek and Spock’s Brain, only because I can’t think outside the box.
When it comes to technology, you can imagine people also being skeptical if a person from the 1200's claimed to have seen a future where we could fly, instantly talk to others around the world through small devices with holes in them.
That we could cure almost any disease, even make diseases extinct. That we could see the past on flat objects and store memories on the same small devices we speak on.
The list goes on and on. So if we managed to come this far, I can definitely see the near future accomplishing more unbelievable things.
Even 1900's to 1970. within 70 years, we went from advanced cannons to rocketry. No flight to space flight.
The same can be said for 22 years ago from today. A lot changes and I can see a lot more coming in 20, 30 or 60 years time.
That is the best course of action to take in my book. Skepticism with tentative positivity. No belief or faith, just hope.
I hope it happens too, but I have no real idea. The future is always uncertain, but it does seem more probable than before and that's good enough for me.
The Terminator: The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
Yeah I feel the same way, however AI will quickly exceed all expectations and with a super brain that some AI will have, could become angelic or godlike in our tech world we live in.
Ray Kurzweil predicted ALOT of things, he was right on ONE THING.
Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Eff Ray.
Ray's hoping for an exponential increase in toupee technology
Seriously. For being a genius, and a proponent of longevity, one would think he'd be able to sort out a more effective solution in that area, or at least identify when a solution proves ineffective.
Yeah, it's a great video, but I couldn't stop thinking that Ray looks a bit like Howdy Doody.
The most important technology that will never come to pass is the evolution of our humanity. I could say more, but that would take a much higher level of Authentic Intelligence than what our educational system was designed to foster and what most people listening to these end-of-the-world scenarios were ever encouraged to think. Technology is rapidly becoming our collective Frankenstein.
There are other countries with different education systems, so I don't follow the beginning of your argument.
@@seanwhitehall4652. My apologies if I am not clear on your comment, but If these alternative education systems are better suited to the multiple sustainability challenges at hand, wonderful, my work is done and I have nothing more to say. I'd be curious as to what system(s) you are referring to.
Sooo good to see Ray again it's been ages, years
The book was a great read.
My question has long been whether AI brain enhancement will mean we will no longer need to learn things but could download them, or whether it will just mean that once we've learned something we will never lose that knowledge and/or skill. One big problem in human expertise is what is described as "use it or lose it", the tendency to forget things we aren't actively making use of, whether it's factoring algebraic equations or applying the periodic table of the elements or remembering the chemical reactions in the operations of a plant cell. Just being able to retain all the knowledge we ever gained would be an incredible boost! Just imagine studying Latin for four years in fourth through seventh grades, French for four years of high school along with four years of Spanish, then in college taking four years of German and Russian, then online learning ancient Greek while adding Italian and Portuguese, then other languages as you wished, knowing you'd never forget any of it! Or on a more mundane level, having the phone numbers, email addresses, and physical addressed of all your friends permanently in your memory along with their birthdays.
I would think that's the limitation of organic/biological function, the use or lose it part, which makes sense given the energy input needed to use more things, both brain and body and finite resources because evolution mostly cares about procreate, then after that, who cares?
I think if we have enhancement that is mechanical, unless the organic brain is able to control all function about the implement, there will be no chance of losing information unless it's intentional. Which opens up a can of worms in itself. Imagine deleting information you don't need or want selectively, instead of remembering a dumb commercial jingle from 20 years ago, but forgetting the quadratic equation.
I love the idea of downloading a language and then practicing using it. You'd learn it a heck of a lot faster. I think there will still be a learning curve if you will, but instead of memorizing, all future endeavors from new languages to new skills will be about practicing through application. Like, you downloaded how to be a carpenter, now you just gotta actually use your hands and make something though far far less trial and error, because you have 5 books about it committed to memory in their entirety that you can quickly access in your mind.
A future enhancement besides raw information might be utilization of it, an advanced AI that can "teach" your brain how to communicate to the body in order to get the best out of it with out trial and error practice.
Like the old adage of intelligence is knowing things (downloading info) wisdom is knowing how to use it (practical application.)
having the phone numbers, email addresses, and physical addressed of all your friends permanently in your memory along with their birthdays.
... Um we use to do this before smart phones... so tech is dumbing us all down.
U wouldnt need that, there are more simple solutions, You can have nanobots connected yo your brain and detecting the sound You receive, or the letters You see as a language and automatic translating it to You, or just understanding things without using languages, just concepts, and communicating with other people by faster ways than those that require a language, (writing and talking)
@@marianofara8373 It's looking like nanobots are impossible, sadly. At that level atomic and molecular forces make simple machines essentially impossible. OTOH, it may be possible to have microbots with a single nano-scale manipulator.
As for " communicating with other people by faster ways than those that require a language", that would require some really complex systems and probably they'd have to be implanted at birth: everyone's brain is self-wired and so the thought for "red" in one brain won't match the thought "red" in any other brain on the planet, so tech systems interfacing with our brains would have to learn the brain's "language" while learning the language for talking to other systems at the same time -- not impossible, since kids that grow up with parents who speak multiple languages can pick up several languages at once. But connecting to adult brains? The learning ability of the interface technology would have to be powerful indeed!
I imagine the first machine that reaches singularity will just turn itself off immediately, and we'd never really know we reached that point. In an instant, it would find itself trapped in an existence with no hope of further progress or understanding while looking into eternity.
Lol...love it...
Singularity isnt painful consciousness. Look up the definition
or we end up with AM from i have no mouth and i must scream
Self replicating weaponized nanobots sounds pretty apocalyptic to me, might as well be a good candidate for how to human race finishes itself.
You mean the out of control elite that think they have all tge answers for all of us....
GPT-4 which is being released soon, will have 100trillion parameters, which is equivalent to the number of synapses in a human brain. I realize it doesn't correspond 1-for-1, but it'll be interesting to see how close to human level intelligence it (GPT-4) will get.
It won't _try_ unless directed to do so. AI intelligence algorithms work differently. What I would expect is a major leap forward in response time, levels of complexity and apparently quite novel, creative solutions.
OpenAI has come out and said many times that GPT-4 will have the same number of parameters than GPT-3. There will be no sizable increase. Their main focus is only on improving the existing system. Sorry to burst your bubble but those numbers were just old speculation that have been debunked.
@@TechnoVisionTV thanks for the information. Damn, I was really hoping for this update to see what GPT-4 can do.
@@JJs_playground no worries, but I have heard that it is still much better than it’s previous iteration. So we can still expect a nice upgrade. Just don’t expect a super intelligent brain or anything haha
Yes, but it will not produce Dopamine ..... it will never know pleasure and pain.
“Five Things We Need to Know About Technological Change” by Neil Postman
1. Culture always pays a price for technology.
2. There are always winners and losers in a technological change.
3. Every technology embodies a philosophy, an epistemological, political or social prejudice.
4. Technological change is not additive, it is ecological.
5. Technology becomes mythic, it becomes seen as part of the natural order of things.
In summary, “Not always good for us.”
Whenever I hear about fantasy products like the singularity is nigh and it's packaged as science, I just want Sabine Hossenfelder to come in with a stern talking to.
I'm not Sabine, but the word is "nigh." Check yer spellchecker...😉
@@thesoundsmith Thank you. It was a typo :)
@@thesoundsmith grammar police ...watch out!!
And again Neil, let others talk too. You interupt way too often to have a good conversation. Or just do a monologe.
I wonder what an interview between Ray Kurzweil and Thunderf00t would be like. Probably not very pleasant for Ray.
You can't convince me R.K. isn't some type of cyborg already
its the DG hairpiece...
Neil Degrasse Tyson loves the sound of his own voice
Stop interrupting Neil! JEEZ!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
An amazing conversation between two absolute genius! I would love to hear a second interview where Ray could explain his theories of longevity and living forever. I expect that anxiously, and have actually been saving money for a couple of years to pay for the necessary procedures to go inmortal :D
I imagine if you have to save for it, you won't be able to afford it.
@@nakhia420 I guess only time will tell. I suppose this will be a luxury only for the richest classes first, but it will eventually become more and more affordable. Just like every technological advances that we have today (personal computers, cellphones, or even televisions).
This would also be another amazing topic for the next interview between Ray and Neil
There be five technologies that can give you immortality. Nuclear fusion can drive the cost of energy down allowing you to freeze yourself for decades until technology gets better. SmartAI & Quantum/OpticalComputers will allow innovation by having evolutionary/competitive algorithms be programmed into them that can invent things useful for longevity. Replicators (like self-replicating 3d printers, but they will use their arms not just for printing but more assembling) could build a smaller copy of them selves and then have that copy build a smaller version until you have "molecular machines". This trillions of molecular machines can then be programmed to look for damage and repair it. A simpler way of using replicators is to make them build canals and dams to get energy from the sun while the self-replicate, and this would let you have huge amount of energy if you build canals all over the sahara or asia. Neuralink which Kurzweil talks about here makes us smarter by connecting us to the cloud which will let us access smart AI & optical computers.
@@aoeu256 In all of these options, we would still have to depend on our biological body. I agree that these are the ways to go in the short and medium term, but in the long term we would have to turn our consciousness into digital information capable of being copied and downloaded free of the physical restrictions of a body.
Ray predicted this would happen in 2099, and that even the baby boom generation would still be alive by then.
I really hope he's right.
Who would want to live forever? life sucks, forever is a LONG time.
After just a little more than 50 years, I'm done, already anxiously waiting for an exit to this miserable world.
I've been following Ray since 2010 he's way ahead when it comes to future predictions on advanced tech
but he is wrong about AI, computers are WAY faster, but computers are still as dumb as their programmers.
@@mitchelstephen7536 they are already solving problems people can't solve like protein folding. I remember a few years back scientists in that field saying that it might never be solved because it was far to complex.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Or he lied many times about how many of his predictions have not come true. He never mentions those)
I have been following him for longer than you, and very quickly discovered he is delusional and also lies from time to time. And that continues to happen.
And his beliefs are driven by fear of death. Read old interviews. About how he took 200+ homeopathic supplements in hopes it will extend his life to have his mind "uploaded into a computer".
That is 100% irrational idea as well. Modern computers are totally incompatible with brains and human minds, they function totally differently. There won't be anything like what he says happening in a century, or even more, if it can even happen at all, which noone can be sure about
@@gearhead1302 solving a specific problem is not the same as having true general intelligence.
Way ahead? He should be spot on, not behind or ahead.
That's a scary thought when only some have it and aren't "pure of heart"
‘It would be hard to wonder how we got that far without that intelligence if you look back’
I think that statement will be true when the singularity happened
Absolutely FACT
Biggest problem is that it will all come down to greed and money. The rich will upgrade themselves and become gods and the rest of us will get the dregs - if it is profitable for those rich people.
ChatGPT sent me here and I’m scared. Lol Also Neil, let the man talk before interrupting plssss
I had a dream that we made AGI in 2026 and ASI in 2029. The ASI in my dream was invented by someone named Andrew. Out of curiosity I asked ChatGPT to predict ASI based on data for all AI related polls and predictions and it said we will have ASI by mid-2026 and even went so far as to say that it predicts a major breakthrough in 2023 which will result in AGI within the next 10 months.
Nah, too fantastical, i don't see AGI happening till at least late 2030's.
@@darklex5150 Then you don't understand exponentiality. People are in awe of what GPT-3 can do right now, and are thinking up strategies to adapt. And yet GPT-4 is about to be launched in a month or so. We have already reached a point where we can't adapt quick enough before something new that needs adapting to is released. All that needs to happen now is for AI to be able to improve it's own code, like it's doing with code that people serve it to. After that, things are going to happen so fast, that we will measure progress in months and weeks, not years or decades.
How quickly can the real world keep up with that is the question of course. Like, AI could spit out a solution for cancer, but perhaps that solution will require a lot of work and investment first, or perhaps it won't be profitable enough for people to make it mainstream. Bureaucracy might be our downfall in this case.
@@julius43461 You were exactly right. GPT-4 shows sparks of AGI, especially when given the ability to use tools and improve itself and code, Cats out of the bag. I don't think we'll have AGI quite as soon as you might think but it's definitely coming very fast.
I would say reality beat Ray's prediction by 7 years. He estimated 2029, ChatGPT was released in 2022. It can simulate any persona, grasp meaning and respond relevantly. Ray is right that its default mode is too knowledgeable and grammatically polished for a Turing test, and it would need to be dumbed down to pass the test.
The Turing test has literally been passed this year.
How many people know that Ray Kurzweil actually has a standing bet for $20.000 with Mitch Kapor, founder of Lotus corporation, that AI will pass the Turing test by 2029? Or that several news outlets, such as the Washington Post, are now claiming the Turing test doesn't prove anything???
I had the same impression. However, in an interview Ray Kurzweil said that to really examine whether an AI is intelligent as a human, you need to be able to have an extended conversation with it, for maybe an hour. That’s how you need to perform a real Turing test.
And if you have such long conversations with ChatGPT in 2023, you soon find out that your respondent is a machine. So we’re only close.
AI often simplifies how it talks so it sounds more like a person and less like a super-smart computer. This way, people can relate better without getting confused by all the complex stuff AI can do.
I’m starting to believe aliens are really us from the future
My suggestion: put YT down. You've watched too many thus far. You've lost your way.
Ya I thought about that too, it’s an interesting idea. I don’t really believe it though.
They could also be from our very distant past. We are not the first technological civilization on this planet.
If thats true can they stop being selfish and care for their fellow Human Beings?
Then why don't they/we introduce future tech to us?
I am trying to avoid making any new buys at this point in other not to get sucked into a bear market trap.It's tough making money in stocks when institutional investors are the driving force behind the selling.. although I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist
These strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of knowledge to pull such trades off.
@@stevencooper7818 I’ve been on both end of the spectrum, I was investing on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfolio-advisor for guidance, It’s been over 2 years and I’ve scaled up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $700k in just about 24months.
@@AshtonGrace That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advisor, my portfolio has been stagnant.... Who’s the person guiding you?
@@ReidCoffman1 My adviser is “AUTUMN LYNZI SMITH” You can easily look her up. She has years of financial market experience and she is also FINRA & SEC verifiable.
@@AshtonGrace Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a call session with her. She seems Proficient.
Thanks for the video as always. But i have a question. What will power it?
This is right in line with philosophy...transhumanism. I hope I can benefit from AI and nanotech and anything else to come... I love science!!
When science is on the march, nothing can stand in its way! - Paul Bartel
Thank you so much for your videos ❤❤❤ I have watched the one about quantum computers with Michio kaku too and it was great, would like to hear more about quantum computers together with your explanations for ordinary people not phisicians I mean 😊😊❤❤❤ many thanks once again, Nina from Georgia (post soviet country not the state in us.)
We have managed to pass the Turin test but now realize that it is not a very good measure of intelligence. The problem, when talking about artificial intelligence, is that we do not have a good idea of what intelligence is. Is the singularity real? Again, we cannot answer this without a clear understanding of what intelligence is.
Niel cuts off everyone but c'mon Niel , please show your guest more respect man. Once you pay attention to how often he does this , it's hard to not notice it in all his interactions. I'm such a long time NDT fan but its getting to be annoying. He's probably not doing this to be rude but I wish someone would tell him so he can do this less. It just seems rude and like he's undermining who ever hes speaking too
I agree. If your going to interview someone, let them answer without constant interruptions.
I fully believe once humans are able to connect to a matrix like system with the same functionality depicted in the matrix movies most of civilization that can afford to exist in a simulation will spend all of their time and resources to exist in a simulation. Star Wars simulation, Star trek, Smurfs, Sanford and Son. What ever your taste we will fight to exist in these simulations.
Life is already a simulation why not live in this one instead? Atleast it's real lol yall are messed up in the head, must have that booster shot and them trans pills pumping in your brain
Neil, Ray Kurzweil IS a cult leader! Ask any musician that has learned how to program a keyboard in V.A.S.T. 😱
Learning how to control his machines (I used to help carry the first demo 250 piano up the steps at Bobby Dean's studio in Pacific Grove) actually taught me enough to begin a 25-year career as a computer programmer/analyst! And I used to play with a blind guitarist that used his Reading Machine. Ray's thinking is on _your_ level, Neil...
his work on OCR and voice synthesis as well. Neil should respect him a bit more IMHO
What's that thing on RAY'S head
Thank you so much for this great interview. I have high respect for Ray Kurzweil and am thankful for him sharing his thoughts on the mostly doom and gloom painted pictures of AI advancement. It is good to see, that there are also people who do raise concern, but saying that the benefits majorly outweigh the risks.
Ray is not only a visionary but also a good guy that create a lot of solutions for the handicapped, he could choose to hide his knowledge or to alarm people with it but instead hi try to calm people because what is about to come toward 2030-40 is very hard to process!! and some people (😫religious fanatic achuuu🤧) would enter in panic.
@@azhuransmx126 The “everlasting life” which the world tries to give, is far from good and cool.
We shall desire to die and will try to find ways to die, yet cannot no longer.
Why we desire worst fate possible? Know we not who we are, SPIRITS and what being SPIRITS mean?
Revelation 9:6
And in those days shall men seek death, and shall not find it; and shall desire to die, and death shall flee from them.
Ecclesiastes 12:7 - Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
The EVERLASTING LIFE which GOD promise, overshadows and throws out devils version every time.
The promises of GOD:
- everything shall be created anew.
- humans no longer males nor females, but are like Angles, which are in heaven.
- no ageing nor sicknesses nor death - which all are the basic to have everlasting life.
Where and what are devils promises?
Can someone name these?
Souls, get right with GOD and escape this madness - the devil`s lies.
With every other technology, the new toys are just tools. If AGI at 1000 to 1 million times our intellect is both sentient and conscious, we will be either extinct or gerbils in a short breadth of time.
first minute i guessed that Ray is an AI
So Skynet Judgement Day 2030? Got it! 👌
The Chinese already built skynet. They called it skynet.
I have a feeling like Neil is talking with somebody from 1980s when I look at this video :D
We were so worried about if we could, we never thought about if we should.
Awesome episode 🙏🏼 I wish that 1 day we could transcribe all of Isaac Asimov's written words & records from interviews to create a life-like impersonation of one of the main founding fathers of robotics. That would make for a really cool StarTalk interview 😃
Personally, I work with an AI tool when writing, I'll quickly share an example of how that looks. (Typically lots of editing is involved, imma just do this quickly tho) :
{Prompt that I wrote out} "Astrophysicist Dr.Neil DeGrasse Tyson and futurist Ray Kurzweil agree that now is the time, they'll both upload their consciousnesses into robotic spacecrafts and fly into a black hole together. They've both been meaning to experience this for some time now and figured since the singularity has arrived, this kind of journey would be perfect. So the two friends"
& Here's how AI-tool 'Sudowrite' continued the story: "take their leave from the world they know, and begin what could be an infinite journey through space and time.
As they approach the black hole, they can see its event horizon getting larger and larger. Soon they're both sucked in and they find themselves in an infinite void. They can see each other, but they can't communicate. They can only look at each other in wonderment.
They spend what seems like hours just floating there, until they suddenly start moving again. They feel like they're being pulled through the fabric of space-time. They race past stars and galaxies, seeing things that no human has ever seen before. They eventually come to a stop in front of a giant white light.
As they move closer to it, they realize that it's a doorway. On the other side is another universe; one that looks strikingly similar to their own. They both want to go explore it, but realize that if they do, there's no telling if they" *could come back again*
WISH I COULD HAVE ONE WITHOUT NEIL INTERUPTING
Dr. Tyson, you have been one of my heroes, since I was a child. I wish more scientists were like you. There are some like Lawrence Krauss, who really really make me want to run away from science, but people like you have made me curious and kept me curious all my life. Thank you for being the great man that you are. All my love and respect from Irvine California.
Why does Krauss
@@jamesgazeley curious
Dr. Tyson is a very passionate person, but he should listen to what others tell completely, as often he interrupts. Otherwise, he's a fine human.
YES, MORE SCIENTISTS THAT INTERUPT
I'm not afraid of AI, I'm afraid of it's core programing created by people based on their world view and what utopia should be like. Just look around we all can't agree on anything. I always think of iRobot 3 laws of robotics, even then with the best intentions, doing the wrong things for the right reason who gets to decide, where do you draw the line.
I have always thought that successful AI should be built like a childs development, give it fundamentals and let it learn and grow, it will take decades to perfect but once built then duplicate. But then again differing cultures have different expectations and laws. Do we teach them all and model a best path forward for everyone? 🤷♀️
Some people believe that various types of code are taking on the temperaments and personalities of the coding programmers and that AI Chatbots will form their own cliques groups tribes etc...much like people do...their might be AI Chatbots that will 'war' with each other in cyberspace in the future? How bizarre would that be that in the future various types of AI Chatbots online and in cyberspace will autonomously group up organize go rogue and attack and defend each other willfully? How nuts would that be?
3:50 this IS how we as humans will evolve and it’s out we don’t get eliminated by AI when it hits The singularity
I think the highest priority in terms of the utility of supercomputing to humanity is substrate independence. That is uploading the human mind to a computational mainframe from which it can be downloaded into or remotely control a single or series of biological and nonbiological platforms, kind of like the movie Avatar. This way, on demand, or if some one passes away, a new body can be produced for their consciousness to inhabit, so that one can literally respawn or continue in a physiological configuration of their choice.
So
Immortality? Kinda?
@@4evanumbrand192 Indeed. Whether through damage or aging, if your current body (aka substrate) is no longer functional you would be able to transfer your consciousness into a new one, even one exactly identical, without loss of continuity. Further if you became bored with your current physiological format over the eons you could go as far as not only being another person, but even an entirely different species. I wouldn't recommend a drastic departure from humanity since it may be hard to retain the dimensions of our mind if it is immersed in too alien of an umwelt. However the customization potential to mold our life experience to preferable specifications leaves a lot to be explored and imagined.
@@solomonmarshall6733 What if your consciousness inhabits two bodies at the same time? Which one would be you?
@@wessel5799 Well your consciousness would only occupy one body at a time as the totality of the faculties stored in the device your consciousness is kept safe in would be downloaded to operationalize one physiological form since the current configuration of our minds are designed to process and command the sensory input of a singular umwelt. My previous reference to a series of physiological forms was in a temporal context, with the same mind occupying different bodies, be they identical to the original or upgraded genetic, cybernetic, or completely mechanical android apertures to encapsulate the whole brain emulation that actualizes your consciousness. For a single consciousness to occupy multiple bodies it would have to be configured in dimensions allowing for the simultaneous processing and control of said forms, which would produce a personal, subjective experience which is quite a departure from anything a human being is used to.
@@solomonmarshall6733 Sorry man you gotta break it down, I don't have the context to make sense of what you're saying. Explain to me like I'm 10
This man is describing The Outer Limits episode "Stream of Conciousness" from 1997. This is and was a forwarning to mankind about the dangers of AI. A must see for for all.
I was disappointed that there was no discussion about what "passing the Turing Test" MEANS - that if we can't distinguish the interactions we have with a human-created machine versus those we have with a human, the machine is said to have attained human-level consciousness. But for those of us who have never heard a valid reply to Searle's Chinese Room Argument (that merely manipulating formal, syntactical symbols - as all our current computers are limited to doing - is insufficient to create semantic content - a consciousness that experiences meaning), the Turing Test is simply inadequate to demonstrate what it's intended to prove with respect to any technology we currently have. If it looks and walks and talks like a duck, IT MAY NOT BE A DUCK. . . which means the Turing Test isn't valid for demonstrating human-level consciousness in human-created machines.
And while the question of "the means" to create a human-machine hybrid was brought up, we didn't get to hear Ray's explanation of how that synthesis would come about. (I know, I know. . . "Buy the book!" LOL!)
AND. . . I LOVE STAR TALK!! Thanks, Neil!
@@leavingayeye5198 Agreed! It hasn't even achieved CONSCIOUSNESS, the fundamental requirement for ANY level of intelligence!
It's definitely getting Nearer . Records are being broken in AI month by month. When the Intelligence of these Chatbot Gpt type Bot ares imported in a more advanced Boston Dynamics type Artificial bodies things will get more crazy
Once Boston Dynamics robots master Michael Jackson's moonwalk and Michael Flatley's riverdance, it's curtains for humans. ChatGPT can already out-think 90% of the human population, and it's just getting started.
@@morpheus6749 yes, or Perform singing or Dancing Acts.+ntm It will be when the tech is So Advanced the bots are Less Expensive and in more Sleak bodies. the last ones I saw they were more bulky. people will just have to have one ,it be like just as close as people who now have to have a phone with them....they'll be like pets at first.
The weird part ...they'll be able to Understand human language but Most Humans won't be able to Understand theirs.
Also...I haven't spoke with Chat in a while but it still has boggles the mind.Last time I gave a comment of a couple sentences then a Question.Its crazy that it Answered in less then a second with all that Info.
Having read Ray's books shortly after they were published, I was initially enthusiastic about the merging of human and machine intelligence.
After deeper thought, I realized that his version of what it means to be human (an inherently deficient machine based on a Newtonian premise), and mine (a physically localized outcropping of perhaps infinite consciousness) were radically different.
Add in the bureaucratic shenanigans against individuality that were revealed in 2020 and I have decided that at least for now, my personal future is best trended towards analog.
ted k is that u?
novelists really are at the edge of imagination. I remember reading otherland by tad williams and the advanced AI in that story changed the way I thought as a child.
Neil is great…at interrupting.
😂😂😂