How Rare are Your Pokemon Cards? (Part 1)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2024
- #pokemoncards #pokemontcg #pokemonpullrates #pokemonmarket #pokemoncardmarket #pokemonprices #pokemonreprint #dannyphantump
Pokemon Card Pull Rates have been studied since the release of the first ever Pokemon Card. Trying to determine the rarity of a card or the amount of Pokemon Cards in existence has been broken down by Pokemon Card Fans and Enthusiasts trying to get a good understanding on how many of a specific Pokemon Card exist.
This information is important to a Pokemon Card collector because it informs us just how rare a specific Pokemon Card is. Rarity is important because based on demand, it can greatly impact the Pokemon Card Price. Collectors focus on cards that have harder rarity, because it makes them feel like they own something that few others have.
Pokemon Card pull rates have often times been consistent within each generation. However, Scarlet & Violet seems to have made significant changes in the middle of the generation. The question is, why? Why would Pokemon change pull rates and impact rarities of their Pokemon Card Releases? In today's video, we breakdown and uncover these pull rates, as well as explain the possible reasoning behind the shift in rarity pull rates pertaining to Pokemon Cards.
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I didn't win the set but I won at life today. I was granted custody of my daughter ❤
That is the best thing I heard today. Congrats on the win, that’s a bigger win than anything I can think of. Dad’s are so important in their kids lives.
If you are female you always do! nothing special, if you're a man CONGRATULATIONS!!!! That's almost a impossibility!!
Hell ya brother. I been there so I know what you had to go through. Congrats!
Big ups lad
Congratulations 🎊
The problem is they set a standard for pull rates in SV era that was way more attainable than SWSH and then they changed the pull rates back towards SWSH-esque. I don’t like the back n forth, I was just getting excited to actually open SV bc you CAN pull a chase, but not if they’re continuing in this direction. Hopefully they can find some sort of happy medium between obsidian and temporal forces
Very well said. opening SV has been much more enjoyable than SWSH. Would prefer they don’t go back to the dog days of sw sh. Never opened a single alt art however have pulled the Iono from Paldea evolved and the mew from Paldean fates. Compared to the absolute nothing I was pulling in sw sh era it’s been like night and day.
I'm glad they left the illustration rare pull rate alone but if they're going to make the SIRs that much more rare they really need to work on making the full arts hit a little better. That way you feel like you're getting nice cards while still making the highest rarities super cool to pull.
The change in pull rates has helped me cut back. Sadly i have to cut back on the pokemon hobby. Life has gotten expensive. Have to get a new roof and solar. Aka more bills.
Me too I stopped opening this year. These singles will still be around ten years from now, I have no rush.
Same, with the pull rates of the last 3 sets I've opened considerably less packs. Paldean Fates and 151 were fun though!
@@austinschuessler6592I completely agree with you guys. I loved opening up Pladea evolved and Paradox rift. Even though I’m loving these new sets I’ve cut back on buying product. I wonder why they thought this was a good idea??
Voting matters...
Great information, horrible news. Pull rates this hard make the pack opening experience not fun at all.
The change in pull rates right before 151 is what bothers me. I was hoping the pull rates were the same as the previous sets before it. I was really annoyed by it. I basically stopped opening packs after like pack number 40
Seeing the numbers in front of you really helps with understanding why these sets are different
What makes this incredibly frustrating after hearing this is that pokemon had options and chose the worst one. They could have created more SIRs which would have increased the variance difficulty and they could have left the rate at one per box. Instead they moved the rarity which has to take away 10-15 dollars of value from each box at a minimum. Add in the increased MSRP and pokemon nerfed the value of their product by almost 30-40 dollars. I think this has priced out a lot of people and needs to be looked at more.
Spot on. They don't seem to understand that they can have more of a rarity and leave you still chasing a particular card
Yes! That is the problem. Thank you.
This is actually a really good solution. That way people can’t complain about not getting top tier cards in every box.
Profit making companies want to make money 🤷🏻♂️
@UrAveragePlayer0 for me, I've bought a lot less from pokemon and a lot more singles from the secondary market. Pokemon isn't seeing any of that money. And I know I'm just one person and don't speak for everyone, but it just doesn't feel good to open an entire booster box and maybe get 50% of my money back. And it isn't all about the money, but when you are looking at the checklist and seeing that you are missing every medium to big card in the set it has to put people off. Embarrassingly, the last 4 boxes I have opened have not had a SIR. Terrible luck, but after I opened two boxes of twilight masquerade and saw that I would need to spend 700+ to complete the set when the entire set is only worth around 780 I swore off buying sealed all together because the value just isn't there.
This is such important info! So many people are complaining about the prices of illustration rares like Magikarp and saying that the rarity doesn’t justify the price. I’m so glad someone finally showed why they’re so expensive!
I just traded in all my bulk/dupes to get the singles I wanted. Not buying any sealed until Team Rocket (if it lives up to hype) then won’t again until the next great set. These pull rates are making opening product boring and expensive.
Same. I traded in a load of bulk steadily over months to get Charizard V from Brilliant Stars. Was doubly happy to clear the bulk and get the card.
@@matttran7161 Nice. I used mine to fill up the remaining cards I needed for 151
Everyone said the same thing during SwSh... how are those sealed products looking?
Really interesting analysis. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the meetings where they determine this stuff at the Pokemon Company.
This is the single most important and informational video ever created for the pokemon community. Thanks Danny this explains alot.
This video only reaffirms how much the fun cost matters when it comes to opening sets. If anything, I want my fun cost balanced with the chances of chasing a special card while still having a great chance at feeling like I'm getting value while doing so. Bar none, Paldea Evolved is the set that hits the mark as the best in the SV era. Great video as always Danny!
There is a fine line of keeping cards desirable from pull rates and keeping the set fun to open from pull rates.
I think crown zenith was the perfect set. They have so much awesome art that your pull rates of good cards is actually quiet good and the cards aren't $3 each.
Is anyone noticing the slow down in purchasing or is it nondesirable sets?
Ace Specs being the "hit" out of a 164 dollar booster box is why no one wants to rip anymore. Collectors want illustrations not humiliating pink cards
@@d6rknlmb644I don't think it's because they are pink. Prime catcher is an easy sell
They have more than enough money to ensure that every ex in the set gets an equivalent SIR. If the Japanese don't want to fund it or change their set structure, there is no reason why TPCi cannot do it given that English is the most sold product. That would be a better way to live up to the ridiculous MSRP increase rather than nerfing pull rates. Furthermore, quality control has taken a jump off a cliff in SV era with printlines galore. Even worse QC for a higher price? There are people at TPCi earning too much and not delivering any results. Too focused on flooding useless products into the market. Enough energy bricks, dice, poison and burn markers, clouded sleeves, jumbo cards - especially 'special' sets where people are forced to buy ETBs and therefore accumulate junk. Even card stores don't need them because there are too many. Donating junk to kids is not generous, it's cruel because it's junk.
Ya the excitement from opening packs is dying for me. I just feel like I’ve wasted money when I open so much product and get even duplicates of bad “rare” cards.
I opened a Twilight Masquerade booster box and ETB and didn't get a single full art supporter. The best I got was 2 Ace Specs.
Worst set I've ever opened.
Yup. screw those ace specs. SV base up to Paldea Fates is peak SV era
@d6rknlmb644 paradox rift had slightly tougher pull rates and so did 151 but those sets are nice. The past 2 sets Twilight and Temporal are both lame as hell though the pull rates make it no fun to open as you're spending $100+ for a booster box and might get $20 in value
Really great data Phanny. One of my favorite videos to date.
I said it before and I'll say it again. Paldea Evolved is my favourite expansion thus far and none of the others have come close. Not only does it have some of my personal favourite cards, but it also has the best chances to get them.
The data from the chart at 29:00 is underrated
Pull rates….yup Pokemon is big business. We had some fun with the earlier SV expansions, hopefully pull rates will get beter on expansions to come so we can have some more fun 😊
Awesome recap here Danny! The amount of work in not just putting together the numbers but actual opening and tracking of pack is something I can fully understand and THANK YOU for all you do. Much love and we hope you're here with us for a long time to come Danny.
This actually makes sense to me. Because I’m missing the most ex cards from obsidian flames for my master sets. But I have pulled doubles of the hyper rares and special illustrations. Amazing data dive! Thank you!!
Danny if any casual collector watches anyone of your videos for the whole SV generation so far this is it!! Thanks for the amazing content and effort put into this it’s very appreciated!! Especially when trying to decide what sets to buy for children for gifts. God bless you and the family!!! Praying you are having a good summer and are well!
Seriously I hope the pokemon company sees this and hires you as a consultant
I rarely open packs. Usually, I just save up and buy singles. I'd rather definitely have the card I want than a chance at nothing. (It's evolving skies and fusion strikes fault 😂). I used to only open packs, but 9 etbs and only 1 full art made me switch to singles.
Glad they are making harder pull rates but why they got get rid of double bangers to do that. The issue also was they try to add value having a holo and reverse but it made those cards devalue it did the opposite.
Pull rates are atrocious. I haven't even pulled a full art out of like 50 packs. Granted I've gotten a couple of art rares but c'mon.... This set isn't good enough to warrant rates this difficult
Amazing data. Thanks so much, Danny.
You gained about 20-25k subscribers by being consistent. My man.
Congrats Neisan
Twilight masquerade is the biggest joke of a set when it comes to pull rates. I've opened an etb, two booster bundles, and 10 sleeved packs. 3 exs and two illustration rares between everything. That is 31 packs!!! They're going back to the sword and shield era of pull rates for pokémon and trainers that aren't even cool. Meanwhile I open an etb and a zapdos box of 151 and get one sir in the etb and three in the zapdos box. They need to get it together.
Like winning 3,000 booster packs. She's a beauty!
good pull rates is what brought me back to buying packs. WIth terribel pull rates, it just makes me want to buy singles instead of packs. "The chase" really dont hit me in any type of way because I am not trying to blow buckets of money to try to maybe pull a card if I can just buy it for way cheaper.
Yup and when people start just wanting to buy the singles it dramatically inflates the price of those singles. Which is why we see all these new SIRs rise in price fast. I used to open 4 bbs to start my master sets but with how bad the rates have been I now only do 2 and use the $200 I would of spent on 2 more bbs to buy singles. Spend $100-120 on a bb and pull no sir or use that to buy multiple of the lower end ones?
Your videos take such a daunting and sometimes toxic subject and make it easy to listen to and entertaining. Thank you kind sir
C.C. got good energy with him definitely positive vibes. His insight on things is very interesting. Bless you brother 🙏🏾
Great video, I learned a lot from it! Thank you
danny - we really appreciate the in depth analysis. The "better" pull rates early on SV were fun - especially for young kids. Let's see what happens next.
Wow, I love the math behind pokemon..you are the man Danny!
I agree with the break down. Those are huge changes in pull rates and crazy how obsidian flames pull rates are
Thank you for the information Danny. Very helpful to make decisions on what to buy.
Here's a theory: Pokemon was trying to build hype for Scarlet and Violet and intentionally made better pull rates for the first amount of sets they dropped. Just like how their first wave of products they drop for each set have crazy pulls. Just a speculation, but definitely is a good marketing strategy.
This is some extremely good information!
Instead of releasing a new set every 2-3 months. They could spend 4-5 months to create bigger sets. That way they could keep the easier/better pull rates like paldea evolved/Crown Zenith/S&V base had, making packs more fun to open. While variance would instead give each singular card more rarity. This would also give master set collectors more time to complete a set.
I always just wait for pull rate data before buying sets, so I always appreciate your pull rate videos. Won’t rip any packs with pull rates like these. Just is not fun for me.
But honestly, back in the day, getting 12 hits a box was great, as there may have only been 12 hits in the set with an equal shot at each one. But Pokemon has had tons more crazy rarities and junk and the amount of packs to complete a set has gotten beyond absurd. Instead of making SIRs more rare, they should have just made IRs less rare. Would have been great at like 1/8 or something.
Seeing expected packs needed to pull a full set over time would be interesting and annoying in equal measure.
I opened a s&v base set booster box an got 2 sirs out of one booster box
I'm not sure if I missed it, but could you add a stat to your data of the approximate sweet spot with each set of opening packs to buying singles, if you're trying to master a set? Mathematically is it better to open 50? 75? Then buy the rest at singles with a given set? I know there's a lot of variables with single prices on a moving market. And it would vary with being able to pre order booster packs for $2 EA vs $5 EA later in the life of a set.
Absolute banger video, Danny! The "nerfed" pull rates in recent sets make total sense now with the context that they were never meant to be as good as they were to begin with. TPCi really dropped the ball on this one. The perception going forward will likely be that Pokemon pulled the rug out from under people by changing pull rates and will likely lead to less interest in ripping packs to chase cards. But if enough people lose interest in ripping and turn to singles, where will the supply of singles come from? TPCi may also see the lower sales numbers as an indication to print less which further exacerbates the issue. I don't think it will get to the point where we see Moonbreon level prices on SIRs, but there is big potential for a snowball effect to occur here and lead to price inflation.
great vid phanny. breaking down the art of the pull
I not haven’t good luck with pulls from this set
Wow! R u sure u got the exact same pull rates for paldea evolved as u did for base set?? I feel like base set has higher pull rate plus its rare to have data perfectly mirrored like this and not be something thats well known.
Thats why i just buy singles off ebay. I dont have the time, finances or energy to spend money on packs or etb at stores just to chase cards i want.
My box of Paradox Rift had neither SIR nor gold and my one booster box of Temporal Forces at least had one gold...I guess I'm really unlucky with Paradox Rift then
That's the thing with pull rates in modern cant have both low pull rates and a good return on investment. Every set that has has very easy pull rates are worth less than MSRP
But this set isn't that great lol It's got rates similar to evolving skies but make no mistake it is NOT an evolving skies lol
@@jamesgraves9858 it was more of a general comment on sets. You can never have high pull rates and high return unless the demand is so crazy high it outweigh the over saturation of chase cards. You can have low pull and both high and low return. Example evolving skies and chilling reign one far better than the other and low pulls but each has very different returns
This makes total sense because TPCi was trying to justify their price increase per pack with more hits, only to siphon that off later into the era.
Also, it's really important to note that just because the pull rates of a SPECIFIC double rare card is lower than that of a SPECIFIC SIR does not justify a price difference skewed toward a higher price on the double rare.
ANOTHER important thing to note, is that with the introduction of the ACE SPEC cards, TPCi had to lower the pull rates of a card in the same slot. Their seeding couldn't allow for too common of hits in either slot because of a new rarity. This means without ACE SPEC cards in a set, we probably see the SIR pull rates return to roughly the paradox rift level.
And last note, I'm pretty sure I'm shadow banned in Danny's comments... So most of this will just be me typing to a wall 😢
Or I’ll read it right away 💜
I could be wrong, but aren’t ace specs in the first reverse holo slot and SIR and IR in the second slot? So theoretically the addition of ace specs wouldnt impact the rarity by taking up a slot. Or I could be completely misunderstanding
@@DannyPhantump Yay not banned!
You are probably correct because you open way more packs than I do, but there is definitely a pattern so far with why a set has a lower pull rate for SIRs, and that is ACE SPECs. I am willing to bet the SIR rate for any set in the future with ACE SPECs does the same.
For sure. It will definitely be an interesting thing to look at, but I think ace specs will be around for a while. Definitely strange to see the Double Rares go from 4.5 per box to over 6!
I focus on buying singles now more than opening packs since the pull rates have been rough. Congrats on the winner 🎉🎉
U didnt list the number of god packs u got in 151. I wanna know the chances...i feel extremely lucky to have pulled a zard god pack even tho the zard has a messed up corner :(.
Finally! Back to the nitty gritty number crunching content I watch y you for. Good stuff
I will be buying singles and about 80% less than I have been.
Danny do you dream about pull rates? You are the pull rate king
Congrats to the winner, thank you Danny for uploading. The binder is amazing
Awesome video Danny
Always love the data dives!
Base set was 12 per box... evolving skies was 7 per box. Those lenticular "foils" in evolving skies that were not large images were not any fun.
I’ve pulled 15 SIRs from TM in just over 700 packs. I must say 5 of those SIRs came from loose sleeve packs and random 6 pk boosters. I’ve gotten very lucky pulling SIRs from none sealed cases. I did open 1 sealed case of booster boxes and 2 sleeve cases.
*VERY RUFF CALCULATION* but would it be fair to say that about 2.6 million SIR cards are printed for each SIR in a set like twm? 11billion card printed per year / 6 sets = 1.8billion per set / 680 cards (68 packs) to get a SIR = 2.6 million. Meaning that if not reprinted, there are about 2.6 million greninja ex SIR printed?
Great video! Appreciate the time and effort! We are trying to grow our collection too!!! Love the thrill of the chase!
Thank you for these analysis
Why all this change pokemon????? Most ppl like at least a little bit of consistency!
I was talking with my brother about this. I think pull rates changed when they introduced Ace Specs. I think it is weighting the Ace Spec as a great hit. Anytime I get one I know I’m not getting anything else great.
Great information Danny. Your numbers correlate with our pull rates here in Australia.
Loving all these stats! Not loving the newer pull rates, though. Will be really interested to see how Shrouded Fable pull rates pan out.
I didn’t win, must be rigged 🧢
Phenomenal video also a stats nerd so I appreciate the logic
I've been proposing this as the reason for the changes since they started tampering with them.
The other two options they could've made, without changing pull rates, are less IRs per set or more SIRs per set.
3 ETB 151 only 3 pull 2 full art and 1 EX
Good rates can make it fun but it ofc cuts down the prices. I think I like what swsh did best still at the end, hard to pull a alt but has goodies with gallery cards sprinkled in.
All I have to say is WOW. I need the Greenent EX now! It’s so rare! 😅
Miriam is like $20 now lol
They are numbering figures on Pokemon center they may explore the card side🤷♂️
Good video!
This is super crucial data! Personally, I’m picking up sealed product and leaving it untouched and buying the singles I want.
It’s not worth cracking open a sealed booster box or an ETB in hopes of potentially pulling a card; when the cards pulled don’t justify to money spent.
great video, thanks for showing all the information. Temporal forces for me was a little too rough for openings, twilight masquerade was a little bette. I think scarlet and violet 151 had the best balance of value/chases/pull rates.
The best thing to do with all of changing and grey zone/area pull rate data from the source is to just embrace singles culture and buy what you need off others lately . Most sets now are sadly cheaper to buy zero to complete it feels than trying to rip packs for even 50% of a MASTER set now. Just wait 3 months or so and then strike
Amazing video, I will rewatch to take these numbers in again a lot of info! Thank you!
Opened 13 sleeved packs pulled magikarp. Danny’s off his rocker.
love your videos Danny Phantump.
Some of the best info I've seen in a long time. thanks!
This is an insane video. Never seen it broken down like this. Other content creators who just read tcg player graphs should take note. This is top tier info that we couldn’t get anywhere else, hence the massive following.
Completely agree with the obsidian flames stats and comments. I bought a case (6 boxes) and was missing 3 cards for my master set.
My luck ran out when i got to paldea evolved and temporal forces however :(
i opened 15 packs and got 0 hits not even a normal ex
Need to win one of these 🤞
I know they have a lot to think about with how cards will impact the TCG, etc. but you would think they would do a better job designing sets and aligning pull rates to ensure the things you mentioned in the video didn't happen.
Great stuff as always dude!
Before I clicked the vid, I saw the watch time and thought "Whoa... this is pretty long for a Danny vid" but now I know why. This was a terrific vid! I think your sample sizes are big enough to get a fair assessment on pull rates we'll never truly understand. It's pretty nuts how much things have changed from the beginning of S&V 'til now. This also proves that it wasn't my imagination when I thought Temporal and Twilight are pretty generous with low to mid-tier hits but stingy with the upper echelon stuff.
Personally I still think cards of the same rarity are not printed in equal numbers, at least not for the higher rarities. Just because they're cut from the same sheet, it doesn't mean they all have to have an equal number of prints on that sheet. Just an example but there's a ton of people who've pulled multiples of all the FA shinies from Shining Fates but the Zard eludes them. Stuff like this happens often enough to make me believe they're not printed in the same numbers.
Congrats @neisan0319!!! What a prize to walk away with! Huge shout out to Danny and the Phan Clan member who made that binder for making this such a special and amazing giveaway!
This was a phenomenal video. I havent seen this perspective presented with so much clarity before. People may have know and not been able to explain it, with numbers and evidence. But I as sure didn't understand this before now.
That a magikarp is actually rarer than an SIR of the same set, makes perfect sense. Maybe the market doesnt lie after all?
I never win but congrats wish I could attest get the graninja
Congratulations to niesan!
so what I’ve gathered me pulling the Iron Boulder SIR and Prime Cather Ace Spec out of 6 Temporal Forces Packs is pretty lucky lol
pokemon killed there own card business with TOO MUCH GREED, TOO MANY SETS, and you need to literally spend over $3K to complete a master set worth maybe $400 they took advantage of so many collectors the past 4-9 years but possible people are starting to get some common sense and see buying booster boxes and ETB's and other products is a waste you mis-well just go throw your money in the water.