WildUte University: Should the Big 12 Add Oregon State & Washington State?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ก.ค. 2024
- The College Football Mafia Network Presents...
WildUte University: Should the Big 12 Add Oregon State & Washington State?
Join WildUte as he takes a deep dive into the numbers to see just how the both Oregon State and Washington State would match up in the Big 12. - กีฬา
I HATE seeing OSU/Wazzu being left behind. It feels wrong. I hope they find a P4 home. They don’t deserve to be ‘relegated’.
I still say yes to OSU/WASU. I have them as a 6 & 7 pick if Big 12 goes to a super conference of 24. (Adding 8 teams and FSU/Clemson are not an option)
Both have been locked behind the Pac12 network which messes with all these metrics. Both would be a good add for the B12 or ACC.
I think that they would do better in the future if the Big 12 did pick them up.
Perhaps they don’t cross the midpoint but says a lot that overall they rank higher than a Kansas State or Iowa State. Who knows maybe with a reduced share and offering some of that P12 money they can SMU their way in.
What ranking above Iowa State and Kansas State really says is that the criteria are silly.
@@caljerm So was the eyes on "Prime" metric. Otherwise I can see some solid work here in making this presentation.
I say the ACC should let Clemson and FSU go as a trade for getting Oregon State and Washington State. Everyone wins
The model uses arbitrary and disparate time frames. Insightful but not sufficient to make definitive statements imo.
Great job Will Doot! I have a feeling you are going to face some heat from your previous conference mates but you did your thing. I like how you came to your analysis. Folks may disagree of course but it's visible for all that you have put a lot of work and effort into your presented opinion.
Colorado viewership is a short term anomaly. WSU football pulls durably.
You think they get good TV numbers this year?
@ScottK-StateFlorida I think Colorado will do well viewership wise this coming season, but not to the extent of last year when the Deion hype went nuclear after a 3-0 start. Issue I see is once he leaves they'll revert back to historical norm which is underwhelming.
Colorado viewership will smash all big12 numbers going forward as long as prime is coach. Colorado is still pac12 and pac12 want ESPN and fox to shell big money for Colorado spring game. Now, Colorado will play spring game in pac12 network. ESPN and fox want Colorado in prime slot due to ratings. Why did you think Mexico big12 game was canceled, they want Colorado play in Mexico game.
makes sense. Thanks!
Bringing in OSU & WSU would provide a good reason for the 11 million residents of Oregon and Washington to care about, and to watch, Big 12 athletics. WSU has a huge presence in the Puget Sound area (12th biggest TV market in the country), as does OSU in the Portland area (22nd largest).
Seems like they fit pretty well by your metrics and weighting, but just might not be as additive as you’d like for media valuation. Those are different things.
Good comment. Wish I’d have said that during the video - the big takeaway from doing a bunch of these videos is that school needs to be above the media in the overall ranking to be a strong contender.
Culturally yes, geography wise No, pretty simple
Hard to argue that UCF or WVU were geographic fits at the time, all about if they make $
So wait, Wazzu gets to count Seattle…285 miles to the west of it, but seemingly Corvallis isn’t getting PDX, which is 82 miles south of it?
Yep, you just make me smile.
Another great video. Based on the overall rankings of the schools, Houston and UCF were bad adds for the Big 12.
ASU is in a larger market than UA. Are you giving Arizona credit for Tucson and Phoenix? Arizona being good in any sport does not carry the Phoenix DMA.
K-State in second to last place!?! My takeaway, unfortunately, is I wonder if my K-State Wildcats belong in the Big 12!? Lol! KU sure gets a lot of love and maybe too much weight for basketball for this analysis. But I respect. I’d like to see how K-State looks just taking into account last 25 years in football, basketball, and brand. OSU has b-ball natty’s which should not be discounted, but how long ago? K-State has highest ranked non new years day bowl game this year, The Powercat, I thought, was very popular when that was introduced in Bill Snyder era. Plus 2 BCS # 1 rankings, consistently in Top 25, multiple Heisman top 5 finalists, consistent sell-outs, etc. Oh well, very humbling results. :c(
The main reason K-State is so low on the list is due to the fact that pre Bill Snyder, K-State had one of the worst programs in the history of college football.
The little bit I know about predictions, experiments, forecasting methods beginner classes is you need to use current/relevant information.😮
@@Patrick-sg7cmKansas took that spot last 20 years but they have them (CFM) going to Big 10 before any other team in big 12
@ScottK-StateFlorida I'm not sure what all the logistics behind that are. One of them, is that they are a blue blood in basketball. While basketball isn't the main factor in conference realignment, it is an added bonus. The other factor is market size. Adding Kansas would bring the Kansas City market into the B1G or the SEC.
@ScottK-StateFlorida history and tradition matter. Even though Nebraska hasn't been relevant in over 20 years, they still rank high in most metrics due to their number of overall wins and the fact that they have won multiple national championships in their history. Another thing that Nebraska has going for it despite being so bad recently is that they still have big viewership numbers despite the fact that they have been so bad recently.
Surprised K State would be 17.
My B12 expansion rankings assuming FSU/MIA to B1G & NC/Clem to SEC. 1-NCSU, 2-VT, 3. LOU, 4-GT, 5-Pitt, 6-Syra, 7-Wazzu, 8-Ore St. Curious, how Memphis would rank in B12.
Agree with you and yes, how is K-State last overall? Powercat is popular, top 25 almost every year for last 25 years, 2 years had #1 ranking in country. Best coach in country. Multiple top 5 heisman finalists, etc. Hmm. Just don’t get that with Wildcats.
Delusional, FSU, GT to BIG, Miami to big12
@@Chris_EE apparently, FOX likes Miami over GT. Don't kill the messenger
@@CaydensDaddio I am not preview to insider knowledge, if you say so, I guess it will be easy to add Miami due to AAU status but Miami don’t have its own stadium.
@@Chris_EE neither does ucla
Big 12 goes east next… then maybe west again
Agreed, Big12 has to go East next. And the only choice is ACC.
I like the idea but, how does the big 12 get them with media $ being tight? Then you have to consider travel cost!
They do fit. And if things played out differently they’d likely be in the conference before the 4 that were added last season. But unfortunately there’s not enough room in the conference for the value they add.
So market size is just the market of the university? Maybe I missed it; I sped through. I would venture to say there are a few schools that would get a bump based on market bleed and alumni location, including KU, but also BYU and others. KU gets a ton of KC viewership and I know it has strong alumni bases elsewhere.
WSU and OSU are pro-rata negatives, and that's the bottom line.
Yep, you've nailed it Mr. Monkey -- they are pro-rata negatives. Market size is the market DMA as given by Sports Media Watch. I'll make that clearer for the next video. Also, I'm going to expand the tv viewership sample size from 3 years to 8 years.
@@wildute6958 You're going to kill KU's TV viewership if you go back before Leipold. 😁 Terrible teams, last pick media slots. Gonna get ugly.
@@wildute6958 TV viewership is tough, I dont know if anyone got screwed more with this than OSU and WSU there. Even in the last three years, and its worse if you go back more, both teams played more "pac12 after dark" games as well as games that were forced onto the pac12 network and had terrible distribution than other teams. Every game that was on pac12 net does not get reported so its 0 views regardless of how many it got. I cant tell you how many times i've been asked when or what channel the beaver game is on and you always gotta add 'but its pac12 net', and then you just get pissed off fans because no one has access.
@@mrmonkeysays KU’s basketball will keep them strong in the model, no matter what. They’ve shake out 1 or 2.
@@richardr4730 They don’t fit. Didn’t think they fit before the analysis, and said so many times. The analysis doesn’t support the add. Don’t think the video was unclear about it. It is what it is.
Great job Ute I will say nelsen is a great researcher however one thing it does get wrong is that Dallas Market of Big 12 schools Texas Tech would be highest views school in that market followed by Baylor then TCU however because Tech is so far away from Dallas it not counting Tech as part of DMA I think that would push Tech higher on your final ranking
A big reason why the B12 should be interested in WSU and OSU is to simply play keep away as a defensive strategy. If the B12 wants to destroy the ACC it makes sense to not allow the ACC to backfill with quality schools. I know these Wild Ute metrics will absolutely love a school like Pitt, but c'mon, Pitt's athletic department has been a dumpster fire now for decades. Is it a big loss for the ACC to trade Pitt for Oregon State? Hardly. The ACC has quality backfill options if WSU and OSU are available along with some schools like Tulane and USF. The B12 needs to decide if they want to be THE other conference or if they want to compete with the ACC moving forward. This Wild Ute video shows that WSU and OSU are not additive, but neither were Houston and UCF. According to this data, WSU and OSU are slightly more attractive than Houston and UCF. That tells me WSU and OSU are good enough as a defensive strategy.
Good points!
Not sure how your Football History rankings were calculated but if Kansas isn't at the bottom then the formula needs to be revised.
KU stinks at football, but it’s elite basketball and brand makes it a stronger program in the Big12 model. Basketball is relevant to the Big12 unlike the B1G.
@wildute6958 what does that have to do with Football History Rankings?
Of course WSU and OSU should be in. You already have Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona State, Oklahoma State (all primarily university cities) and not exactly nationwide behemoths. Google searches are a joke.
ASU is a much bigger university than WSU and OSU. WSU’s stadium is under 30k.
@@geoffreyevans6133 I must have missed the stadium size as a factor.
The one big takeaway from watching this and how skewed the metrics are from TRUE reality in almost every category is that these are the sort of things that the headless goons are actually using to drive decision making and affect the future of these programs. That is what's sad.
I would be curious to see how WSU and OSU stack up against the Mountain West.
The best hope for Oregon State and Washington State would be for them to receive an ACC invitation.
Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
As things stand I say no way they are added. But after further consolidation forces the Big12/ACC leftovers to merge, the Beaves and Wazzu will be included in that merger.
I asked a gypsy lady about it and she said the SEC will stay at 16 but the B1G will expand to 32 before splitting into two conferences under one administration, ala the AFC/NFC in the NFL. The conferences will be called The B1G Pacific and The B1G Atlantic. Thus bringing to fruition the real intent behind the ACC/B1G/PAC alliance.
It appears that both OSU/WSU compare favorably with existing schools in the Big 12. Not exactly a huge difference between the schools in this comparative analysis.
Not really. I would much prefer adding USF and Memphis if we are adding G5’s
In regards to basketball history, I find it very hard to believe that 14 programs rank higher than Iowa State - the Cyclones have more Big 12 Conference tournament titles than anyone except Kansas. And Oklahoma State at 3rd - that is some skewed data if I've ever seen it. I would adjust your criteria so the results aren't ridiculous.
4x value for national champ. Iowa State has 0 and Okla St has multiple.
@caljern
Let's see your analysis
Another useless data point is the Market Size metric. TCU and Houston top the list here - and the reality of that? Well, both of those schools are in metro areas with NFL teams as well as huge University of Texas and Oklahoma fan bases so the Net of those market sizes for them is basically nearly nothing. Especially with TCU who also has SMU to divide local fan base with. At the bottom you have Texas Tech and Iowa State, which conversely have no local major pro sports to contend with and absolutely rabid fan bases.
Market size remains relevant. It’s weighty little in the model. The problem with the Cyclones is they don’t score well at almost anything. It is what it is.
My question to you Wild Ute is this. Are you ready for that whopping you’re gonna take September 21st
NOOOOO!!!
Possibly worse for them, is the situation they are now in likely is setting up a viscous circle. So outside something happening with ACC soon, every year that goes by for the next few years is going to be taking hits to all those metrics. To the point If the ACC broke up at the end of current GOR, then seems decent odds multiple G5 could be better positioned than than either for ACC backfill or Big 12 needing to balance due to some additions.
Agreed, the ACC will backfill with G5 schools.
KState has the highest B12 fb wins of all schools. Sells out the 50k stadium almost all games the last three years. Just wrong ranking them that low. Doesn’t match reality.
I know you factored football and basketball in, but the Big 12 needs to be proactive and consider baseball programs in membership tie-breaker situations.
For some programs, it's a revenue generating sporting event, and historically it's been a top 3 sport for well over a century.
So, in a hypothetical scenario, OSU would get the nod over WSU if all other things were equal... based on the success of the top 3 (rather than top 2) events.
Baseball might generate a small amount of money for a handful of programs but it certainly is not a decision driving revenue generator from a conference/TV perspective. I love baseball, it's in my soul, but if college baseball is your selling point then you don't have a product worth buying.
@rods5569 It would be a money-maker for a conference with several members placing an emphasis on making it to Omaha (playing for and winning natties),
But my argument was that all things equal in football and basketball, baseball could be a tie-breaker... precisely because it would generate revenue for an individual school (elevating the overall profile of the conference)
@@devilfrawg4953 If you say so.....
@rods5569 You don't think that having several of the top baseball programs, in the same conf competing against another, would result in a profit... for anybody?
Using that logic, seems to me WBB would need to be considered too and I think it is more relevant than college baseball.
No
Yep
@@wildute6958 pass pass pass. Rather 4-6 of Pitt, Louisville, Miami, VT, Virginia, NCState. WSU and OSU are more like Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forrest, SMU, I’d pass on those too.
Very nice job. As time goes by I care less and less about these two. Let them go and spend the money they did not earn and let’s move on.
WSU and OSU did not make the bad financial decisions of the former commissioner. I hope they rebuild with teams like
Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State. But, of course, it is all about the $$.
All of the University Presidents and Chancellors are the ones responsible for the death of the PAC 12. The commissioner works for them. They made poor choices starting with Larry Scott and moving on with GK. By the time GK came into his position the league had one foot in the grave already. The final straw was the great USC leaving.ESPN and Fox took it from there.
Wild Ute, great job. I found it very interesting and well thought out. Thank You from one Ute to another.