Always cool to see people go back and test the basics! Of course most maging boils down to 'do you feel lucky', but it's nice to see the numbers. I do want to caution you on some of the analysis. The question of 'how many successes from n independent attempts with a given probability' is a standard binomial distribution. So you could reasonably calculate a confidence interval for the true odds of landing an exo, from 100 successes in 8281 attempts. You'd expect that to be a range around the ≈1.2% value you get from the division. I'm not sure how you calculated the confidence interval to get 3~7.2%, which seems to imply a much higher success rate. The question of 'how many attempts are required on a given shield before success' is slightly different, following a geometric distribution (nicely illustrated in your first two graphs). If you did the confidence interval on this, that might explain the unexpected values.
it is actually 1.02 and 1.47 % the confidence interval. I knew something was off when I was editing the video. I just re checked the math. Thank you for pointing it out. Anyhow, it does not matter for the final discussion of the video (gladly). I used the bootstrap resampling to calculate it btw.
I’m looking forward to start on the unity, can you make a video on the best route to level fast and make Kamas on a fresh server? Like what quests to skip and what profession to level ❤ thanks
No one is talking about the new "sink" counter built in function and I just found out about it when messing with some runes in the beta, maybe you can talk about it later
I thought that it was already well known, but once I give the basic maging tutorial I will for sure mention it. Having the sink displayed there really changed maging.
Vou sim amigo, so esperando a atualizacao no dia 7 de novembro q ira modificar os sers lows. De qualquer forma esra semana vou por os meus 4 sets lvl 60 pra cada elemento q sao mto top (duvido q eles sejam modificados). Eles so vao buffar equipamentos, por isso esses ssets lvl 60 vao continuando sendo mto bons e duvido q haja melhores q eles pra esse lvl msm apos as modificações
@@zekalfra Boa noite! Tem o patch notes sobre essa mudança de sets? Estou voltando agora ao Dofus e tô bem perdido. Jogando de Osamodas e tentando entender a classe ainda.
@@FelipeMannrich ainda vai ter a mudanca dos sets no proximo mes, mas irei trazer video explicando tudo, nao se preocupe. Eu tenho uma playlist no meu canal com todos os changelogs (mudancas) nos ultimos meses. Vc pode ir la verificar se quiser para estar ligado com o q ta acontecendo
Great video and I completely agree people underestimate how much it costs to land a rune. Not being a math major can you help understand something? Is the chance for a single attempt still 1%? And if the cost of each attempt is 30,000 how come the expected cost to land isn’t just 30,000*1/1%= 3,000,000? I saw you got an average of 82 attempts per shield which sounds more like 1.2% chance per attempt? 100/82
Exactly, so even tho ankama stated some years ago that to land an exo AP would be 1%, we do not know at the moment if this percentage changed, so that was why I did my own math, by maging 100 shields and see what would be the percentage that I would get, which was 1.2%. But the even tho, the average is 82, this does not show us much. Where we can actually see probability "luck" is in the cumulative probability function where there we can see that actually around 60 tries is where we have 50% chances of getting an exo AP shield. But still 60 tries would still cost 1.8mk to do it! So if the shield costs only 1mk in the shop, would still be worth to buy the shield instead of maging statistically speaking. Thank you for your kind words
Always cool to see people go back and test the basics! Of course most maging boils down to 'do you feel lucky', but it's nice to see the numbers.
I do want to caution you on some of the analysis. The question of 'how many successes from n independent attempts with a given probability' is a standard binomial distribution. So you could reasonably calculate a confidence interval for the true odds of landing an exo, from 100 successes in 8281 attempts. You'd expect that to be a range around the ≈1.2% value you get from the division. I'm not sure how you calculated the confidence interval to get 3~7.2%, which seems to imply a much higher success rate.
The question of 'how many attempts are required on a given shield before success' is slightly different, following a geometric distribution (nicely illustrated in your first two graphs). If you did the confidence interval on this, that might explain the unexpected values.
it is actually 1.02 and 1.47 % the confidence interval. I knew something was off when I was editing the video. I just re checked the math. Thank you for pointing it out. Anyhow, it does not matter for the final discussion of the video (gladly). I used the bootstrap resampling to calculate it btw.
"In the beginning!!" :p
Great video as always!
Abraço
Thank you for doing these types of videos 👍
Great and informative video. I wish you could do forgemage tutorials if you are experienced in that field.
hey mate, I am not super experienced. But I have really some powerful people on that field. I can perhaps bring them to do a video !
as always great tutorial
@@matheuskipman5630 thanks mate
How much math can you put in a Dofus video? - Zekalfra: ''Yes''.
hahahahah, have to use my PhD for something
I’m looking forward to start on the unity, can you make a video on the best route to level fast and make Kamas on a fresh server? Like what quests to skip and what profession to level ❤ thanks
I am doing a playlist about it. Its called how to become billionaire in the new servers. The first video is already out
No one is talking about the new "sink" counter built in function and I just found out about it when messing with some runes in the beta, maybe you can talk about it later
I thought that it was already well known, but once I give the basic maging tutorial I will for sure mention it. Having the sink displayed there really changed maging.
am taking notes
Excelente vídeo! Por favor faça um vídeo sobre sets low level e outros exos bons de pegar no começo
Vou sim amigo, so esperando a atualizacao no dia 7 de novembro q ira modificar os sers lows. De qualquer forma esra semana vou por os meus 4 sets lvl 60 pra cada elemento q sao mto top (duvido q eles sejam modificados). Eles so vao buffar equipamentos, por isso esses ssets lvl 60 vao continuando sendo mto bons e duvido q haja melhores q eles pra esse lvl msm apos as modificações
@@zekalfra Boa noite! Tem o patch notes sobre essa mudança de sets? Estou voltando agora ao Dofus e tô bem perdido. Jogando de Osamodas e tentando entender a classe ainda.
@@FelipeMannrich ainda vai ter a mudanca dos sets no proximo mes, mas irei trazer video explicando tudo, nao se preocupe. Eu tenho uma playlist no meu canal com todos os changelogs (mudancas) nos ultimos meses. Vc pode ir la verificar se quiser para estar ligado com o q ta acontecendo
Great video and I completely agree people underestimate how much it costs to land a rune. Not being a math major can you help understand something?
Is the chance for a single attempt still 1%? And if the cost of each attempt is 30,000 how come the expected cost to land isn’t just 30,000*1/1%= 3,000,000?
I saw you got an average of 82 attempts per shield which sounds more like 1.2% chance per attempt? 100/82
Exactly, so even tho ankama stated some years ago that to land an exo AP would be 1%, we do not know at the moment if this percentage changed, so that was why I did my own math, by maging 100 shields and see what would be the percentage that I would get, which was 1.2%.
But the even tho, the average is 82, this does not show us much.
Where we can actually see probability "luck" is in the cumulative probability function where there we can see that actually around 60 tries is where we have 50% chances of getting an exo AP shield.
But still 60 tries would still cost 1.8mk to do it!
So if the shield costs only 1mk in the shop, would still be worth to buy the shield instead of maging statistically speaking.
Thank you for your kind words
A long tailed distribution as expected, it is sad tho, for some player they can get really unlucky
Indeed!
Question; Did you put the game in French? Because if so this data wouldnt be correct because French client has increased % of landing exo's.
ahahahahha yeah, favouring the french people ;)
@@VIISsellasta ahahahaha true