You have a gift as a teacher of tying in weather with real life scenarios and history. Not just covering the nuts and bolts but also making it interesting.
I live about 50 miles NE of Syracuse- it looks like you'll be experiencing one of our classic 'snow globe' days. From mid-November into early/mid-January, the temp differential between the lake and WNW breezes produces overcast and flurries for what feels like a solid two months. It's very different than the huge dumps you spoke of in your report- those are only a 2-3 times per winter experience for any given location. Some years, a particular area won't have any(!); we think of them as 'lottery' type events. We also receive the typical 'Continental Low' type of snow from the SSW- it's a 50:50 rain/snow event in the past decade, but the elevational uplift usually comes through for me as far north as I am, and we receive it as snow. It all adds up to about 160-180" per year, down from a 180-220" average before 2000. Have fun!
excellent point! By the way, the NWS just issued winter storm warnings for this part of New York. While I would love to stick around for a good winter storm, I'd also like to make it home...
Thanks for you very informative presentation at Greenville last night. I learn something new in almost every one of your TH-cam and now in person. Thanks
I had no idea about warming cold air lowering humidity to the extent it does. Just went and looked, it's 28 F outside 95% RH. Inside the house it's 36% RH.
Eric, Whenever you show temperature anomaly maps Greenland appears below to far below average. For years it would seem. Is this real, and artifact or my imagination? Will you address this topic in some future episode please?
@ Eric SNODGRASS my friend. Cannot wait for permanent pattern change mid month record heat later December through March guarantee for East Coast USA?? We will NOT see any REAL heavy snows ever again. Rain is welcome here and great chance for severe weather for East Coast USA ERIC. Cannot wait for record heat return here in Chambersburg pa for later December through March!!!!
You don’t know that buddy. Sorry. Don’t get your hopes up if it happens to be an incredibly cold winter. Sorry to rain on your parade (no pun intended) but wishcasting only gets you so far. And if it does happen to be a cold and snowy winter across the east you have no one to blame but yourself brother. Sorry not sorry. It’s one thing to make a prediction but it’s another thing to make an out of the blue assumption. Just cause you say it’s going go be a warm winter doesn’t mean it’s going to be a warm winter. So talk all you want.
It is currently exhibiting the highest skills scores on matching the 5-day forecast of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomaly pattern. While it is not as accurate on precipitation totals as the higher resolution, dynamical models, its ability to better represent the jet stream pattern makes it a very useful model.
while I don't think it is crap, I agree that its skill scores are significantly lower than other global long range models. You are right, it is more aggressive over the next 30 days on the depth of the La Niña compared to other models but it does kill the La Niña off quite quickly in February. To me the CFSv2 is just another piece of information and I was curious why it was so aggressive on Mexican / Southern Plains drought.
You have a gift as a teacher of tying in weather with real life scenarios and history. Not just covering the nuts and bolts but also making it interesting.
I appreciate that - thank you.
Just found this channel from your website today. Thank you all you do Eric.
You bet!
I live about 50 miles NE of Syracuse- it looks like you'll be experiencing one of our classic 'snow globe' days. From mid-November into early/mid-January, the temp differential between the lake and WNW breezes produces overcast and flurries for what feels like a solid two months. It's very different than the huge dumps you spoke of in your report- those are only a 2-3 times per winter experience for any given location. Some years, a particular area won't have any(!); we think of them as 'lottery' type events. We also receive the typical 'Continental Low' type of snow from the SSW- it's a 50:50 rain/snow event in the past decade, but the elevational uplift usually comes through for me as far north as I am, and we receive it as snow. It all adds up to about 160-180" per year, down from a 180-220" average before 2000. Have fun!
excellent point! By the way, the NWS just issued winter storm warnings for this part of New York. While I would love to stick around for a good winter storm, I'd also like to make it home...
Thanks for you very informative presentation at Greenville last night. I learn something new in almost every one of your TH-cam and now in person. Thanks
that was a great group! Glad I was asked to speak at that event!!
thanks for the update, hope your travel goes well, would love to see some of the pictures you get of the lake effect snow!!!!!
well, they just put us under a winter storm warning...
I had no idea about warming cold air lowering humidity to the extent it does. Just went and looked, it's 28 F outside 95% RH. Inside the house it's 36% RH.
crazy isn't it!
We need some rain in the plains 🌧️
Agreed - especially the Northern Plains.
Eric, Whenever you show temperature anomaly maps Greenland appears below to far below average. For years it would seem. Is this real, and artifact or my imagination? Will you address this topic in some future episode please?
that is a great point. I will have to pay much closer attention. I don't think it is an artifact, but I will need to look into it.
You remind me of a young Joe Bastardi.
@ Eric SNODGRASS my friend. Cannot wait for permanent pattern change mid month record heat later December through March guarantee for East Coast USA?? We will NOT see any REAL heavy snows ever again. Rain is welcome here and great chance for severe weather for East Coast USA ERIC. Cannot wait for record heat return here in Chambersburg pa for later December through March!!!!
You don’t know that buddy. Sorry. Don’t get your hopes up if it happens to be an incredibly cold winter. Sorry to rain on your parade (no pun intended) but wishcasting only gets you so far. And if it does happen to be a cold and snowy winter across the east you have no one to blame but yourself brother. Sorry not sorry. It’s one thing to make a prediction but it’s another thing to make an out of the blue assumption. Just cause you say it’s going go be a warm winter doesn’t mean it’s going to be a warm winter. So talk all you want.
Wear your good mask on the plane.
maybe I should have brought an entire suit... There was a lot of people hacking on that plane last night.
The Euro AI sucks... lol why use it.
It is currently exhibiting the highest skills scores on matching the 5-day forecast of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomaly pattern. While it is not as accurate on precipitation totals as the higher resolution, dynamical models, its ability to better represent the jet stream pattern makes it a very useful model.
CFS is a crap model. La Niña isn’t going to happen. All the other models show neutral
while I don't think it is crap, I agree that its skill scores are significantly lower than other global long range models. You are right, it is more aggressive over the next 30 days on the depth of the La Niña compared to other models but it does kill the La Niña off quite quickly in February. To me the CFSv2 is just another piece of information and I was curious why it was so aggressive on Mexican / Southern Plains drought.
@ to me it is junk. I don’t think this year is going to be a La Niña at all. Ocean water temps look more like 2013 than a La Niña.