Street Epistemology: Nick | Everything Happens for a Reason
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ต.ค. 2017
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
Recorded: 6 October 2017
Released: 19 October 2017
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Audio Only: / ep-190-dialogue-anthon...
"Everything happens for a reason" rant was on 'Ozark' (2017) on Season 1 Episode 8. The script appears to be here:
www.springfieldspringfield.co...
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Summary: Nick does not accept the notion of coincidences, and thinks everything happens for a reason.
Mistakes: We should have taken the time to lookup common meanings of the word "coincidence". I should have rephrased "Could you explain it a little better" to something less aggressive.
Recorded w/Go-Pro. Edited w/PowerDirector.
The views addressed here are mine and mine alone, and are not necessarily shared by members of my family and friends.
#StreetEpistemology #Magnabosco #EverythingHappensForAReason #Coincidence #Determinism #Ozark #AnthonyMagnabosco
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Nick: the only thing in common between the Houston trip and flat tires is money. You spend money, you have less money. There’s nothing more to it than that. But worse than your “universe-enforced justice” belief, is your belief that your world just can’t, *just can’t*, be any other way. You’ve locked yourself into a thought prison you made yourself. You want your kids to have their own thought prisons. Break out. Experience an intense life full of amazing, incredible coincidences! Your life will be richer that you could possibly imagine.
Robert Hamilton Well this comment just got pinned. Thank you, Robert.
I thinking about Bayesian probability a second tyre will go given the first tyre went - we aren't born with natural understanding of probability or statistics so unexpected but probable events are often seen as magical or harbingers of a deepity
Wow, do you people not realize that claiming to know everything is a coincidence is EXACTLY as bad as claiming to know it isn't? There's actually theoretical models on both ideas. If all we knew were macro science, it would have us believe that everything is already mathematically predestined from the Big Bang. But quantum mechanics tells us that things could truly be random to an extent. The true answer is that we really don't know.
The particular issue is that Nick's reason is more than just normal causality. It is a universe that is selecting events for him to teach him a lesson.
Robert Hamilton it’s only a prison to a non believer, to him it gives freedom. Your word games don’t prove him wrong in any way, they just enforce others echo chambers, and they show your ego equally driving you to only accept one reality. When it comes to subjective reality if not all reality as we know it based on words we gave meaning to there is no absolute, there is no right or wrong from a third perspective.. There is from yours and his but that can only ever be your opinion based on your experience of life.. If you walk a mile in his shoes you might see it his way and vica versa
I also have noticed that the "things happen for a reason" crowd seem to be very "me" centered and they don't consider that they live on a planet with billions of other people with lives of their own.
That's a conclusion that you are making! LMAO 🤣
Everything happens for a reason COULD mean that the reason Everything is happening for a reason is because everything effects everything else. And we ALL play a small part in our evolutionary purpose. Or it all happens just for the EXPERIENCE of everything happens 🤷
@@RickWilleyOMCOoh, I like that line of thinking. They always say everything happens for a reason, but never take it a step further to ask what the reason could be! I like the concept of everything being interconnected though, it's like the butterfly effect. I agree with that, but I don't necessarily think every single thing "happens for a reason", or at least not some sort of big, important reason. I think a legit accurate way to say the truth of it would be "everything happens, and everything affects something else" lol
I've noticed in many of these talks, when the interlocutor starts to see the contradiction in their thinking, they often revert to: 'well it's just easier to go through life this way', like he did at 30:26. Would that be a good moment to say something like '...is something that makes life easier necessarily making a belief true? I understand that life is hard and we are all looking for ways to make it easier. Do you think that that's what's Happening Here?'
Dunno. It's just such a common conclusion they offer. Il wondering if you can use this ' life-lubricant' view as a discussion point. Anyway, AWESOME talks.
I gave an SE lecture to our local Freethinkers group of 20 people, and showed them your lecture
' We're doing it Wrong' they were all so impressed.
Much discussion.
Keep up the good work!
Thank you for your videos and commentary.
"What would a coincidence look like?"
Best. question. ever!
"Of course it's real! What'd I just tell you?"
lol
Anthony: -"So let me summarize this: your view is basically completely incoherent and delusional, is that correct?"
Nick -"Yeah"
I used to think this way, briefly, until I was deconverted from all magical thinking in June. The Atheist Experience helped me. Thank you, +Anthony Magnabosco, for your work in this area! You did REALLY well with this one, BTW. I did not sense at all you were frustrated. I was VERY impressed by you keeping your cool. WOW!
Seems like a nice guy, but his reasoning is illogical and self serving. Hopefully he learned from this and begins working on his critical thinking skills.
I'm practicing this conversational technique
You expressed yourself perfectly and I agree with you.
I think this is the best introductory sentence I've heard.
Good comment 👍
If you spend money you don't have then unforeseen expenses come up, that's just reality, not the universe taking the time to teach you a lesson. This kind of thinking seems so arrogant to me because while the universe is busy making sure someone gets two flat tires for taking a trip they can't afford, the universe must be making sure a child in an impoverished country can't find food or clean water for the day. I wonder what the universe is trying to teach that child if this was true. Humans are wired to see patterns, agency and intention but that doesn't mean that it's actually there. It was frustrating to see him so entrenched in this belief that he wouldn't even consider that he could be mistaken.
kristabella222 Yeah. Well said. I was listening to this one again while hiking and it also began to wonder how much of Nick’s hypothesis was being influenced by his apparently stretched means. If he were extremely wealthy, would he still be as dilligent in making all of these connections.
If I'm not mistaken, what Nick said is a religious flavor of determinism, a Stoic concept. It's difficult not to think this way since people are pattern finding animals. I myself believe in destiny even though I am aware it may be simply a product of evolution.
This video has brought me to a better understanding of the crisis of meaning. Thank you.
Anthony, monetize your channel. I don't mind for a half hour's worth of content. I'd happily watch and click through for you. Like if you agree.
D Man-G Thank you. However, doing so could complicate my ability to film people in public without their written permission. I have started a go fund me to cover some of my travel expenses for speaking engagements, if you are interested in helping there.
10:00 if he makes a connection about 2 events, but I make a different connection, how could we determine which is actually true, or if either of them are even connected at all?
I couldn’t help but notice Nick say “I mean, what is the “coincidence” I have two flat tires in one week” He used the word coincidence in place of chance and the chances of him getting two flat tires in the same week are actually very high being that the tires would ware at the same rate. The biggest problem here is he asked that in complete sarcasm and because of his “everything happens for a reason” belief, he’ll never actually navigate that question or any like it. He seems so young in the way he speaks about these types of experiences.
Dude amazing questions. You are really good at this! 👍
A useful question may have been, could the scientific method be used to determine whether or not there are such things as coincidences? I think this conversation could have benefitted from you two discussing how to design an experiment where you would test how many events in life either coincide with other events or happen for a reason.
First, I'd like to start by saying you did an amazing job staying composed throughout that talk. Even when Nick mentioned telling those stories to his kids. That made my blood boil, too.
I really wish this one would have gone a different route. I wish you would have drawn more comparisons to bad things happening to good people. Or bad things happening to innocent people. Like how there are starving children. Why is the universe punishing these children? What could they have possibly done to deserve starvation?
I also wish you would have asked him whether he thinks that a reality could exist in which intended AND unintended consequences can occur. As opposed to strictly turning it into a dichotomy.
If you or anyone have possible reasons why you DON'T think the above paths would have been productive, please feel free to comment and help me learn. Thanks.
Look forward to more videos. Thanks for posting!
Wow...this was a really tough one, I could feel your frustration. I hope you have a chance to engage with him again on this bc I think you only scratched the surface of his belief system. Following through with his logic would have to reveal something very deep that keeps him invested in the belief; to even proclaim that he wants to indoctrinate his kids with it someday. I wonder who/what he thinks is creating these plans. I'm also suspicious that his tenacity in holding on to it is motivated by just wanting to be right. I could sense a little cockiness that seemed like maybe his pride wouldn't let him examine to closely. Good talk.
I think Nick just REALLY exemplifies how humans are pattern-seeking animals. He's always able to find "reasons" for things happening. Like his example of the trip and the flat tires - if he had NOT gone on the trip and then got the flat tires, he would probably have thought that the universe stopped him from spending that money so he could keep it for fixing the tires! It's a situation where whatever happens he can find a way to tie it back to his preexisting belief. Reminds me somewhat of the old DarkMatter2525 video "The Answer to Everything" where a series of variations of the same scenario play out and they all tie back to "God is good" no matter what happens.
8:05
Is it a coincidence that Nick doesn't know the meaning of the word "coincidence"?
13:53
The (brief) aha moment.
22:07
With a multitude of reasons that could be attributed to a single event, how does Nick know that the causality he has assigned to a particular occurrence is the correct one?
33:07
To borrow a line from the masterful Mr. M., "How far are you willing to go with this?" In Nick's case, he's ready to travel to the ends of the universe.
33:35
Nick has an infinite capacity for self-deception. And that's not just happenstance.
This guy is CLOSED!!!
Thank you for making me spit -whiskey- juice, all over my keyboard Anthony!!!
"What's your definition of a coincidence and then I'll see like, if I've got the same thing...""Hmmm... ... we could probably look it up in a dictionary...?"
That was me done! *pause video* go get wipes... clean screen, keyboard, desk...
Thanks Anthony, thanks a whole fricken bunch!! :)
Glad you enjoyed that part :)
I think it's important to note things do happen for a reason, but not that arbitrary events are connected. We are, by definition, where we are as a result of trillions of actions and choices.
That's true, and actually does apply to his example! The reason he didn't have money for fixing flat tires was indeed because he spent it on the trip. But that's not the universe punishing him, that's just regular ol' consequences. If I eat all the cookies in my pantry and then in a few days I want cookies but don't have any, that's not some punishment from the universe because I ate a bunch of cookies, it's just the natural consequence of my actions. Eat all your cookies, you have no cookies. Spend all your money on a trip, you have no money for flat tires.
love your videos
Eric Tran Thanks! Please share a favorite with a friend.
Interesting dynamic on this one - I thought Anthony seemed distracted. I saw many missed opportunities. For example...I dont think a common definition of REAL was ever established, and seemed like Nick didn't understand the way Anthony was using REAL. Furthermore I though Anthony could he have asked Nick if he's ever had other flats and were those flats always occurring after he did things he shouldn't have done. I also felt that Anthony could tell Nick to start a list his flats and then Nick could start seeing if they always tracked to a bad decisions the weekend before (scientific method). Maybe asked Nick if he'd ever heard of the game of "6 degrees to Kevin Bacon" which helps shows how in 6 connections people can tie anything to anything, and illustrates just how with a little effort the mind can tie together any random event with the actor Kevin Bacon.
Note: For those who haven't heard of this, an example is tying Mississippi to Kevin Bacon (in 6 or fewer connections): Mississippi is the birthplace of Elvis Presley, Elvis was in "Change of Habit "(1969) with Edward Asner, Ed Asner was in JFK (1991) with Kevin Bacon. In some variation you must only use people for the connections, and yet it can always be worked out.
I agree that there needed to be some more clarification of terms. Another that stood out to me was that when discussing the armadillo example Nick made a distinction that it was about facts, so I wish they had discussed how that was different from his beliefs. Is it not a fact that everything happens for a reason?
I really liked this interview Anthony.
Does every flat tire that ever happens to anyone happen for a reason?
If both of Nick's flat tires ended up being paid for by someone else would they have still happened for a reason?
Does every bad thing that happens to people, happen for a reason or as a consequence? (Murder, Pain, Suffering)
That's one tough armadillo to crack
You brought up that cardinal (it's a loved one visiting you) belief as an example at the beginning of this. I know this guy didn't talk about it, but I was thinking about it after you mentioned it. I would like to ask a person who believed the cardinal thing if two strangers were walking together and they both see the same cardinal after it sang, both of the people have had completely different friends and loved ones (because they don't know each other), if they both believed that it was their loved one visiting them as a cardinal, how could we figure out which person was right?
That would be a great question. There’s a couple of cardinal talks on my channel. You’ll just have to dig for them.
It's hard to have an honest, intellectual conversation with someone who isn't intellectually honest with himself.
Yes, that sounded really frustrating. The conversation barely moved until the end. He was so closed (he was saying it explicitly at a point). He sounded frustrated too. I was surprised you didn't ask him earlier whose intention was manifesting itself: once you did, the conversation became a lot less vague and more actionable. The belief also sounded a lot more absurd: the universe wants you to have a flat tire? It seemed to help in general to get into specifics, such as whether he could tell the difference with a world where he was inventing a narrative after the fact, giving meaning rather than finding it. One thing that would maybe have not been very SE but that I would have wanted to ask him is: if there was a mathematical way to tell the difference between random events and correlated ones, would that modify your belief? Because of course there is.
You have so much patience.
Co-incidence: two or more events occurring simultaneously
Co-incidence (colloquial) : events would not occur simultaneously absent an intention
The unintended life is life absent any presumption of intention or purpose.
I know I'm a bit late to the party here, but, having watched many of your other interviews, I think, if you were to have this conversation now, one of the questions you would ask him would be, "Okay, so you said that you would continue to think this way until someone could disprove it, correct? What would that take? What would that look like? What would you accept in the way of evidence or facts to disprove your way of thinking?"
Follow up questions: How do you determine what the universe wants you to do? If everything happens for a reason, does this mean we're talking for a reason? Do you feel like you have free will? (If yes) What do you think would have happened if you decided not to talk to me? If you saved someone's life and then you got a flat tire, does that mean you shouldn't have saved their life? How do you differentiate when you should use the scientific method or not?
The airplane - example ... i love it! It came in the right moment.
Sebastian Hähner Serendipity.
Sadly, Nick doesn't give credit to Anthony's serendipity. In his mind, Anthony would have been unable to give an example of a "coincidence", if the airplane had not flown over them.
Coincidence? I think yes
I find that when people say "it all goes back to", it is usually followed by restating the aforementioned unreliable method.
This might signify an unwillingness to admit that the method is unreliable or to continue thinking about the topic/question presented.
Anthony, I really wish you asked him about cause and effect. Because Nick is looking at it backwards. He thinks effects cause causes. Nick thinks the effects come before causes but its actully the other way around. Nick needs to understand that things happen 'because' of reasons, not 'for' reasons. Nick's reasoning is all just an excuse which he can appeal to for things not going his way. Its just a way for him to deny taking responsibility for his actions. I'd like to hear how he rationalises his way around negative outcomes which happen to him, because if he's asked he wouldnt be able to acknowledge it. He's basically just comfortable with blaiming things on things happening to him. Take some accountability young man!
How do we tell the difference between finding meaning in events that happen and there being intent behind the events?
That was masterful how you got to the motivation for his belief that there are no coincidences at 15:40. He just wants to feel special. Just when I thought the conversation was stalled. I cringed hard when you said he was going to teach his children this unfounded belief. His special pleading for belief making things true when there currently is not scientific result (that he knows of) was also disappoining.
Also, Nick, correlation is not necessarily causation!
Perhaps a line of questioning further investigating the “agent” behind this mysterious intention would have been fruitful. If it could be determined that the universe at large is incapable of possessing very specific intentions, perhaps he would see the problem with his belief.
I liked the way you used the example of Zach, who believed everything was coincidence. I think you missed out, though, on a chance to follow up more on that line. It would have been interesting if you turned that into a full-blown outsider test and asked how could we tell who's right. You could even have created another outsider who believes that there are reasons but who assigns different, incompatible reasons than Nick does. Nick definitively said that Zach would be wrong (no relativism there), but later took refuge in the true-to-me dodge. It would have been interesting to try to show him the contradiction.
kthagen Yes, I think there could’ve been some value if I had stayed focused on the hypothetical where Zack believed that things did not happen for a reason. However, when you are in the moment, it’s sometimes difficult to pick the ideal course of action, even when it’s so clear while watching it afterwards. Thanks for watching and your feedback.
The timer went off at the same time that plane went by.
4SEARCHIN4THETRUTH Obviously by design.
Humans like to think they have some sort of control over things that happen to them, and this is his way of feeling like he can control what happens to him. He uses the fantasy of the Universe as the control factor setting him right when things go wrong in his life. He uses the Universe for things he cannot explain otherwise. I can see it gives him comfort and direction to aide his need for control. Whether it is true or not has no meaning for him as long as he believes it is working for him.
What if you asked him if anything good happened to him after he went to houston and before he got his flat tires. Then you could say these good things happened because he went to houston.
Wouldn't that just be reinforcing his belief that everything happens for a reason?
rushyrulz no since according to him the universe didn’t want him to go to Houston.
I am early on in the video and am a bit frustrated because the "everything happens for a reason" isn't clear to me. Does everything happen for a reason because there is a force orchestrating these things with a purpose? Or is everything happening for a reason because our interviewee has a brain that is compelled to see connections and meaning in things that happen in the puzzle of life? And if the latter, is it a fanciful exercise or is there truly a meaning not generated in the self but externally by another force? I am pausing until my mind clears of my own questions and then will proceed to finish listening.
This topic requires an understanding of correlation and causality. He is correctly observing correlations in his life, but correlation doesn't imply causality.
At the same time, everything in the universe is causally-connected in some way, but most of the connections are distant and indirect. He is assuming simple direct causality between the events he observed - and that the connections were formed by some sort of intelligent designer. But credit to him for never invoking gods - he simply called it "the universe."
In statistical terminology, a coincidence is a "spurious correlation" - when two events co-occur despite the lack of direct causality between them.
The most telling part is that the only thing he cares about in life is handling his money. That's it. He feels the need for a parental figure to keep him on track...
Hi Anthony and the commenters in Anthony's comment section. Came across this video, the title caught my eye, "Everything Happens for a Reason", I haven't watched any other videos to do with Street Epistemology but it looks like Antony goes out to prove people's belief systems are not real. Great idea for a youtube channel I think. I would really like y'alls help, don't want to get into any huffing and puffing in the comments section, I come in peace. Could anybody recommend a video of a belief system what I should believe in about the Universe, my purpose, the purpose of life, human consciousness, etc, etc. Basically what would all y'all intelligent people recommend me believing in? Thanks Anthony and all of you.
Billy Bob Vlogs You might get more traction if you’d consider joining the private Street Epistemology Facebook group called ‘Chat with a Street Epistemologist’. Before that, however, you may want to familiarize yourself with a few more SE videos-I have a playlist of my Top 10, as well as a talk called ‘things I have learned’ (sitting in that same playlist) which might be eye-opening for you (and others) before going much further.
Ok Anthony, thank you for your quick response. I will watch more videos including the Top 10, as well as the talk called ‘things I have learned’, I quite like the sound of your voice and how calm and polite you are. I will subscribe as well so I don't miss any of your future videos. I came from Jessica Schab's channel. Y'all have a good one. Hope you get to check out my channel too Antony.
Or just read some Carlos Castaneda (but dont stop until book 3, might as well skip first two). Srsly.
I'd never dare, to tell anyone what they should believe. Come to your own conclusions, about the universe and everything within. But before you do that, it's important to identify our own pitfalls in thinking. We like to identify false beliefs and reject them because beliefs inform actions, and actions based on false beliefs manifest into undesirable results. The scientific method is arguably the most reliable tool, that help us in testing a hypothesis.
Invest time in learning the scientific method, training your mind to be less susceptible to cognitive biases, learn about the psychology of beliefs, understand the nature of fallacious argumentation et cetera, i.e. to say, invest time in learning 'how to think', rather than worrying about 'what to think'. Cheers! :)
I think he doesn't so much set out to prove other peoples' beliefs wrong as give people the tools to figure out if they're right.
As you've no doubt heard Anthony mention, *anything* you believe can be examined epistemologically. It's just that beliefs that are held on faith or without supporting evidence crumble when examined like this, whereas a belief like armadillos laying eggs is something that is easily testable by watching a pregnant armadillo do her thing.
kind of felt that even Anthony was a little more stressed with this guy than everybody else that I saw being interviewed. It seems thas it was a challenge for Anthony
If I was able to pick between "everything happens for a reason" or if chance played a larger role in your circumstances I would choose "everything happens for a reason." One of the questions that needed to be asked is "is this something you want to believe?" If he is doing it just for comfort and badly wants that comfort than reasoning may not get you very far because reason probably isn't what got him to his belief.
I really think you should have asked him "Does anything that has a negative impact on your life ever happen to you even when you aren't deviating from the track that you think the Universe is setting out for you. Or, does anything positive ever happen to you during or after you have done something that you feel the Universe does not approve of?"
"Is it possible that you might be more likely to notice bad things happening to you, or even not fully recognize any good things happening to you, after you have done something that you feel the Universe does not approve of?"
If everything in his life goes through this filter of faulty logic, he is in for a rough ride
If we shared the same birthdate and were both born on the same floor of the same hospital 6 years apart. Would that be intentional or a coincidence?
What reason could the universe have for assisting Mr. Magnabosco in dispelling the supernatural claim that, "everything happens for a reason"?
I thought Nick's position on the scientific method was odd enough that you might be able to have helped him figured out the flaw in his thinking. To suppose that beliefs become true when they have not yet been explained by the scientific method should be fairly easy to expose as a faulty position:
Astronomers, at one point, used to believe that the sun revolved around the earth. Since the scientific method for testing this belief was not currently available, according to Nick, we must have had a geocentric solar system until we had the means to discovering that it was not. This is just one of many possible examples you might have proposed.
I quite see the reason in his thinking though.
since he's able to tell the difference btw the Armadillo question and the "does everything happen for a reason" question.
For him , when it comes to things that we do not currently have answers to, he would rather pick any answer that fits (that fits better into his way of life/thinking) until such a time when there is a well established theory on the issue.
Because he believes in the benefits of a Narrative, he wouldn't simply say that he doesn't know (like most of us here) but rather see it as an opportunity to create a Narrative that fits into his life-story .
as opposed to withholding belief until the necessary evidence is there... flawed. Unfortunately big beliefs like that come with baggage that interrupts reality and your decision making process. Not smart.
Your idea is rational but it isn't practical . the same way comminism makes sense in theory but not in reality.
it makes practical sense for people to optimize their happiness.
and they only can attain that by living a personal coherent believe-system (coherent doesn't mean true).
you may not believe what am saying but I assure you that you can only find happiness once you understand that happiness depends largely on ones ability to "coherently lie to oneself"
You're right. I don't believe that coherently lying to oneself is the path to happiness. What happens when you run into facts that demolish the card house of lies you've based your life on?
"What happens when you run into facts that demolish the card house of lies you've based your life on?"
you create a better Narrative than the previous. I assure you, this is why we haven't all killed ourselves yet.
that moment when you start to fail to create a Narrative (compelling) is the moment when a human starts to fall into despair.
Regardless of your belief or non-belief. It is how we get by.
Thus, you can trace what I am saying here to the pathology of depression.
At "...just me believing in it is going to make it real." - segue to Carl Sagan's 'dragon in my garage' maybe?
WHEN WILL YOU LEARN
WHEN WILL YOU LEARN
THAT YOUR ACTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES
I think you reached him, he pretty much admitted it in the end but didn't want to come out and say he was wrong. I think it was a success.
This idea is not original with me, but it might help to consider what creative power the mind has to make something real. (Can a comatose person's mind make something real?) Or, for that matter, what power does a collection of rocks, and space, and time (i.e., the universe) have to plan your life? Where is the information about your life's plan stored? Where is the mind that makes the decision to punish you if you stray from your path, and what is the actual "power" and delivery mechanism (what kind of waves or particles?) of that power?
Its nice to create meaning to events or is it possible that events cause me to reflect on my life, behaviour when I deviate from becoming the person I want to be.
Something happens and afterward, humans attempt to apply meaning to it. It's an effort to come to terms with what just occurred. It provides a person with false comfort. If everything happened for a reason, the reason would be known prior to the occurrence.
jeffersonianideal, is meaning applied or is it what's created by way of an emotionally-satisfying interpretation?
Both. In any event, everything doesn't happen with a reason that is predestined. Shit just tends to happen. As humans begin to clean up the excrement, whistling a comforting tune helps to offset the repulsive odor.
Regardless, such hindsight provides no empirical evidence to support divine foreordaining.
jeffersonianideal, oh I definitely agreed that it doesn't support a supernatural claim. As for creating and applying, I'm undecided - what definition of 'meaning' are you using?
I am using the word "meaning" to represent the groundless assertion by an interlocutor that an occurrence was eminently preordained.
Believing that the purpose of the airplane flying overhead solely to drown out Anthony asking a question is quite a grandiose position to take.
Nick is thinking really hard to answer some of your questions, Anthony; that's a good result in itself. :-)
Gah. This is an exhausting mindset. Some things happen for a reason, yes! Does everything happen for a reason? No! Do coincidences exist? Absolutely. Is everything a coincidence? No! Why does everything have to be a strict yes or no?
To be honest, I think Nick was mixing two beliefs. First, all things are caused (he is a determinist, this allowed for that to happen), and second, there is a (mysterious) moral code in the universe and you have free will to follow it. I don't think you can challenge the first belief easily, but the second one seems unfounded. You could have gone about it asking how does he determine what is the good path to take? If he says there is a "good" way of doing things, can we know about it so that we do good? In the end he was just creating a morality on determinism and some religious elements, and I think he was doing a good job about it too.
Was it a coincidence that while discussing coincidences a woman within earshot happened to murmur a word to her friend that sounded a lot like "Anthony" and coincidentally his name is Anthony? Yes. Was it a coincidence that my friend and I watched a football game at home one day and at one point during the game my friend says to me "Dude wouldn't it be crazy if someone from the stands threw a penalty flag out on the field as a joke?" then on the very next play someone from the stands throws a penalty flag on the field as a joke? To add to it I had never seen anyone do that before.. before he suggested it and not since? Yes also just a coincidence. With 7.6 billion people in the world statistically coincidental things should happen in strange arrangements to at least ONE person everyday. We take turns. Simple math.
A lot of supernatural beliefs come down to people misapplying their wrong understanding of stochastics to events in their personal life.
It's very likely that "unlikely" events happen from time to time.
I was thinking about asking him if everything happens for a reason for other people too. It seemed like everything was from his own perspective.
If you can't tell if you saw a god (coincidence) how can you be sure you didn't see one?
Couldn't help thinking that from the dialogue. Coincidence is well define and provable. You can't prove a non-existent, and if it isn't defined you won't be able to test it.
Some good long pauses in there. Nice to see someone without prepared answers.
This should be a video about his disbelief in coincidences.
What if he DIDN'T go to Houston and got the flat tires anyway? Would he connect the flat tires to something else? And how then would he decide which of the many events in his life to connect the flat tires to? When connecting A to B, there are literally thousands of As and thousands of Bs. How does he know WHICH TWO are connected? Can he ever pick the wrong two events to connect together?
The most painful of all SE videos
Nick Carrel Have you seen “gaslighting snake hunt” or “rocket ship to Mars” yet?
There was no scientific method at some point. Does that mean that people belief that Zeus causing thunderbolts was actually true?
He's really stretched the line between cause and effect. The idea of teaching his children that the universe (huge) is making tires go flat rankled me as well.
28:31 how would the situation be any different if you were making this up in your head and it wasn't actually the universe? What would that look like? I love this question! So good.
Jacob Cunningham Please consider using it and let me know how it works out for you.
@@magnabosco210 I feel it's a bit of a trick question. Wouldn't the answer be always "the same" whatever the question is referring to? How would the situation be different if everything you think/perceive/feel is an illusion? But useful to create some general skepticism and consideration of brains in a vat or evil demon thought experiments, at least.
I dont get what the possible benefit of that believe is. He wants to save money. One day he sees something in a shop and wants to buy it. But then they dont have it in his size so he cant buy it. This would mean, the universe knows that he wants to save money and then somehow arranges things so he cant spend money. The other day he is doing a trip and gets a flat tire. In this case the universe is punishing him. Not only he could have saved money by not doing the trip, he also has to spend money for fixing his car.
If the universe really wants to help him to achieve his goals, why doesnt it let him win a million bucks in the lottery?
And again? How is this believe useful? He could say: "I do not have to think about if what I am going to do is right or wrong - that is the Universe's job."
Should have ask if both would be right in the Armadillo scenario if no one knows anything about Armadillos.
Guessing he would say no but using the same logic that he use for coincidences and it would be yes.
32:20 - If the Scientific Method can demonstrate coincidences do randomly happen would Nick reduce his confidence from 100% to 0% or is he closed to that conclusion? At a general level Nick could read (Dubner & Levitt's) Freakonomics for lots of entertaining examples on why events happen and how our intuition about their causes is unreliable.
USA, in my opinion, is in need of sensible minimum wages. I don't know how much that would be, just I feel sorry for this guy that seems like a hard worker just scraping by.
Johnnis His line of work is more based on tips.
there is a reason I woke up at 4am today. i did drink to much water last night.
There must be many times where things happen to Nick and it results in different consequences. Perhaps he's had a flat tyre without having spent all his money on something unnecessary. What would the universe be telling him then?
Didn't James Burke do a series called "Connections"? Where he tracked inventions and coincidences, making them seem inevitable in some cases and random or unexpected in others. That kind of joining the dots between cause and effect can always be done, it would be impossible to not make those links. I guess Nick is some kind of a determinist - a weird one who thinks determinism punishes us when we use free will. Bizarre.
If everything happens for a reason, how is the reason determined? I want to understand this.
Wouldn't old worn tires still go flat even if there was no intention for them to go flat?
Nick, with all respect, what if the financial hardship you experienced is actually really connected to the fact that you don't save a big enough percentage of your daily income?
You couldn't see or experience something like that. You would just have to think of it, or read it in a financial magazine, or come up with it by talking to a friend.
What if the universe isn't trying to tell you the true source of the problem? What if your belief is giving you a false sense of confidence?
If you would be willing to slightly lower your confidence in the belief that the universe is looking out for all of us, then you might be more motivated to find a more useful and long-term answer for the financial hardship you experienced.
Nick , is the universe trying to keep us on track to show us that we don’t have free will?
Everything does not happen for a reason, but someone can place or attempt to interject 'agency' into everything. We're pattern-recognizing machines whom justify things ranging from extreme pettiness to multi-billion dollar spending.
Ink blot test would be good for this one.
Two problems: The sunken cost fallacy that he admits to towards the end, and he takes on stance on a position without good evidence. The default position should be to disbelieve either statement before any evidence is provided.
If only he was limiting his "everything happen for a reason" to a Deterministic view. But by thinking that the universe have a track for him, he add an agency behind it. :(
If you believe that everything happens for a reason, that makes it true.
If I believe that everything doesn't happen for a reason, does that make it true? Or, does it only work for the things you believe?
Nick: Sounds like you think the word Coincidence means "uncaused events". While those do exist, on the quantum level, it's not what the word coincidence means. A coincidence would be if the bird that evacuated on your car got hit by a semi the next day that happened to have your name printed on it somewhere. There's no causal relationship between the two, there's no act of intention that led to the semi with your name on it hitting that specific bird (or any bird for that matter).
So his co-worker decided to call out on Monday solely for the purpose of giving Nick the opportunity to make extra money? Is this the intentionality that he speaks of?
That airplane was perfect
This is a case of Agency over detection....he believes the rustling in the bushes is always a predator. we are prone to this thru inherited genes. But damn its strong in this one. My fallacious reasoning bingo card is blacked out!!
I think he is talking about free will/the lack there of...perhaps when he says “everything happens for a reason” he means we don’t have free will...
is it a coincidence that the guy says "aks" twice instead of "asks"?
I wonder what his response would be if you asked him if he thinks his belief is fact or hypothesis. Towards the end of the video he talks about scientific fact and theory (i.e. hypothesis). He seems to treat his belief as a fact even though it hasn't been proven and is more like a hypothesis. If he could agree that his belief is a hypothesis and not a fact then he might shift from being 100% confident in it. Also, does he think that bad things happen to children because they are not following the path of the universe (insert heinous child crimes here)? Did all the people who died in the boxing day tsunami die because they were not following the universe's path? Maybe these are questions for the next time you meet.
Omg Anthony I was so angry with this one. But you could’ve followed up on the statement it’s true for me until you prove me wrong. You could’ve used an example of that to see if he still agreed with it.